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Marketing Analytics PDF Book

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933 views165 pages

Marketing Analytics PDF Book

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MARKETING ANALYTICS

PG Program

Subject Code- S3EL4

www.mitsde.com
MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Chapter 1 - Introduction

Dr. Seema Gupta


And
Avadhoot Jathar

© U Copyright
Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Dinesh Kumar,
© 2021 IIM Bangalore
by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

MIT School of Distance Education 1


MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

LEARNING OBJECTIVES
 Understand which marketing decisions are supported by
analytics.
 Learn what different analyses are important considering
product categories.
 Differentiate between business intelligence, analytics, and
data science.
 Learn about exploratory data analysis, predictive
analytics, and prescriptive analytics.
 Understand organization of the book and the use cases.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

MARKETING ANALYTICS
 Marketing Analytics is a discipline that uses Statistics and
Machine Learning models and visualizations to provide
data-driven inference for marketing decisions.
 Market Research is the discipline that examines feasibility
of new product or service by using research conducted
 Business model itself determines data availability and
data gathering mechanisms
 Marketing decisions are made to a varying extent using
analytical tools on data

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

MIT School of Distance Education 2


MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

DATA FOR MARKETING ANALYTICS


 Data available with the firm may not be enough and not
always readily useful for inference
 We would think of business to consumer (B2C) firms to be
typical businesses with marketing analytics use cases
 B2B selling does use increasing data with various
channels
 For post-Internet era businesses he data are at the center
of marketing

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

WHAT ARE BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE,


ANALYTICS AND DATA SCIENCE
 For every marketing decision that firms want to make
basis data, it needs careful assessment of quality of data
 The market research firms take much care to gather
useful retail level samples to estimate reliable market
shares
 Data science is the science of collecting, representing,
and analyzing data using statistical, machine learning
techniques to derive useful actionable insights

Marketing Analytics(by Seema Gupta and


Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta
Avadhoot and Avadhoot
Jathar) CopyrightJathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd
2021 byWiley
India Pvt. Ltd

MIT School of Distance Education 3


MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

ANALYSIS
 done primarily to answer why questions
 usually retrospective, in purely explaining an event of the
past
 Analysis as a term is qualified with many domain specific
keywords

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

EXPLORATORY DATA ANALYSIS


 Forms the first key step in helping gauge the story with
the data.
 Business performance is measured by metrics widely
called Key Performance Indicators (KPIs).
 EDA typically involves many simple statistical techniques
 Product reviews are key for the way in which consumers
think about a brand, besides branding the firm may do

cont..

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

 We read the data with the following snippet of code.

 Textual data are to be represented as numeric, so


preprocessing of text is needed
 We usethe “spacy” package in Python for this

cont..

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

 In the next piece of code, we evaluate the sentiment for


each review.

 We would like to examine the sentiment across all the


reviews, and thus a histogram-like plot would help

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

 We derive a few characteristics, in addition to sentiment


 two metrics are derived as count of words and length of
reviews
 examine correlation with sentiment, as done by code and
represented by the plot of correlation

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

 It is easier to see that the sentiment is negatively correlated


with review length as well as word count
 long review is likely to be associated with not so higher a
sentiment

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

 one’s interest would be to understand what words or terms


occur often in reviews
 want to understand what do most reviews talk of

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

 A sample for consumer reviews about restaurant, they


write about Indian food, sweet, quality, coffee, breakfast,
dosa, and so on

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS
 EDA but typically uses cross tabulation or statistical
summarization for inference.
 Descriptive analysis derives insights based on managers/
leaders’ understanding of the context of the metrics.
 For example, if the firm gets only a quarterly single data
point for a couple of years, about the brand share and,
therefore, not a good enough sample for statistical analysis
 firm has its own internal marketing spends data
 hence analysis could check directional evolution of these
two metrics

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS
 Predictive analytics is a set of techniques to provide
estimate or a forecast of a metric for some futuristic
purposes.
 Predictive analysis answers the first question on what will
happen
 A company that successfully uses predictive use cases is
proactive in making informed decisions
 A commonplace marketing predictive use case is
determination of credit score.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

PRESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS
 Prescriptive analytics is a set of tools and techniques that
help assess different courses of action and usually
recommends best actions based on payoffs.
 explains which actions are useful and what consequences
of each action would achieve objectives with KPIs such as
sales, churn rate, or conversions
 It typically uses some form of artificial intelligence
techniques—statistical and machine learning models—
along with optimizations or simulations.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

MIT School of Distance Education 9


MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

© U Copyright
Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Dinesh Kumar,
© 2021 IIM Bangalore
by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Marketing Analytics
Chapter 2 - Segmentation

Dr. Seema Gupta


And
Avadhoot Jathar

© U Copyright
Marketing Analytics(by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Dinesh Kumar,
© 2021 IIM Bangalore
by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

MIT School of Distance Education 1


MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

LEARNING OBJECTIVES
 Understand the types and benefits of customer analytics.
 Understand how data is collected and analyzed in
segmentation.
 Explore the process, applications, and examples of cluster
analysis.
 Perform calculations using clustering algorithms such as
k-means.
 Interpret and evaluate clusters.
 Understand hybrid segmentation and other tools used for
clustering.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Consumer Needs and Segmentation


Analysis

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

 the company decided to form mini-campaigns to address


each segment’s needs.
 mini-campaign would utilize various media platforms to
communicate the marketing messages carefully to each of
the segments.
 Customer Analytics It is a field that uses customer-level
data – primarily behavioural data along with demographics
to understand, and predict customer behaviour.
 Customer analytics plays an important role in the rediction
of customer behaviour
 Customer analytics uses various techniques such as
predictive modeling, information management,
egmentation, and data visualization to predict consumer
behavior
Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Benefits of Customer Analytics


 Using customer analytics, you can find out which
marketing channels work the best for your company.
 It helps in identifying which customers are on the verge of
leaving your company
 If you have decoded customer purchase patterns, that
means you have won half the battle because it is the key
to increasing sales in your business, and customer
analytics provides you the pathway to do so.
 Customer analytics answers questions on how to
differentiate between such customers and highlights ways
to focus on more profitable customers

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

Factors Essential for Obtaining Benefits


from Customer Analytics
 A survey reports that more than 85% of the firms who use
customer analytics extensively, report enormous growth in
their company.
 When these reports were compared with low-level (20%) and
mid-level (30%) customer analytics users.
 it is essential to gain the utmost excellence in customer
analytics to obtain the most benefit.
 It is observed that only 28% reported a significant growth in
the company where the senior-level executives were not
involved, whereas 69% reported considerable growth where
senior-level executives were involved

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Segmentation Analytics
Data Collection in Segmentation:
 a great way to stay connected with customers and also to
fetch details about them.
 Second, try fetching details from customer services.
 Third, can gather information about them from digital
platforms such as social media.
 Fourth, method is through online behavior tracking by
using cookies

Marketing Analytics(by Seema Gupta and


Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta
Avadhoot and Avadhoot
Jathar) CopyrightJathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd
2021 byWiley
India Pvt. Ltd

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

Customer Segmentation Process

 Define the purpose of segmentation


 Identify the most crucial variable
 Value each segment
 Improve your products

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Data Analysis for Customer Segmentation


After you are done collecting data, you need to analyze it to
gain insights. For this, you can follow the following
procedure

 Data tabulation
 Cross-tabbing
 Cluster analysis
 Size estimation of each segment
 Valuation of each segment

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

Cluster Analysis
 Clustering is a method to discover groupings in a dataset.
 The purpose of clustering is to simplify a large dataset
into meaningful subgroups.
 we can use statistical techniques such as clustering, based
on which, we can easily define the similarities and
differences
 for segmenting customers, firms, or markets, we can see
that creating subgroups in a dataset is inherently
subjective
 purpose of clustering is to divide the customer into
subgroups allow marketers to differentiate their approach
by segments in order to maximize customer value
Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Application of Cluster Analysis

 Cluster analysis can be used to analyze buyer behavior as


buyers with similar characteristics are kept in homogenous
groups.
 Using cluster analysis, you can identify your target market
by selecting similar kinds of cities to test the company’s
various marketing strategies.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

Examples of Cluster Analysis


 When P&G wants to test the market for the release of a
new product, it groups different cities based on
demographics ,income level, age, etc
 Coca Cola wants to group people based on preference of
diet soda versus regular soda, they form clusters of
people based on health consciousness
 If an MBA chairperson wants to identify the segment of
the market, they segregate MBA programs based on
GMAT scores, program size,percentage of international
students, etc.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Data used for Clustering


 Customer segmentation is done using geography, product
usage, length of relationship, revenue, demographics, and
attitudes toward brand/category.
 The input data for clustering algorithms needs to be
structured, quantitative, and continuous
 the input variables for clustering need to be selected.
 Some technical considerations are also important while
selecting variables.
 The customer dataset for the clustering algorithms needs
to be organized into rows of variables with each row
representing a unique customer

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

Clustering Algorithms
Agglomerative methods
 This method creates a tree-like structure of clusters in
which observation is treated as a separate cluster initially.
 do not provide a precise number of clusters

Partitioning methods
 divide the dataset into non-overlapping groups such that
points within each group are relatively similar and points
in different groups are relatively dissimilar

 Dendrogram It is the graphical representation of the


hierarchy of nested cluster solutions
Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

K-Means Clustering Algorithm


It is one of the most commonly used partitioning clustering
algorithms that aims to partition the dataset into user-specified K
clusters

Algorithm follows the steps below:


 Randomly select k points to represent the cluster centers
(cluster seeds).
 Each data point is assigned to the cluster where the distance
from the cluster center is minimum.
 The new cluster center (centroid) is calculated as the mean of
all the pointsin the cluster.
 All data points are reassigned based on the distance from new
cluster centers.
 Continue till stable clusters are formed.
Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

key parameters that impact cluster formation are as follows:-


 Cluster seeds: Researchers continue to develop a variety of
algorithms for choosing good initial seeds for stable
clusters

 Choosing K: This impacts both the number and the quality


of the final clusters formed

 Distance measures: Distance measures are actually a


measure of dissimilarity, with larger values denoting lesser
similarity

where dij is the Euclidean distance between the data points i


and j
Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Interpreting Clusters
There are two aspects to interpreting clusters:-
 What cluster members have in common: The centroid is
used to define a typical member of the cluster

 How each cluster is different from other clusters:


 This is key to differentiate segments for marketers to
evolve a customized approach to market to each segment

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

Evaluating Clusters
 Cluster diameter: maximum distance between any two
points within the cluster and indicates the maximum
dissimilarity between members of the same cluster.
 Cluster variance: sum of the squared distance from the
centroid of the cluster.
 Cluster silhouette: The silhouette score of a clustering
solution is the average of the silhouette scores of all
individual customers (data points) in the customer base

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Assigning New Customers to Clusters


 Compute the distance between the new customer and
each cluster centroid.
 Assign the new customer to the closest cluster
 it is prudent to define a threshold for cluster diameter so
that the maximum distance between the new customer
and existing customers.
 In attitudinal segmentation, input data may be collected
using a primary survey for clustering.
 predictive models are used to predict clusters based on
variables

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

Hybrid Segmentation
 It is possible to develop multiple segmentation solutions
 Each segmentation uses a different lens
 Micro segmentation is often useful for personalizing
communication using marketing technology

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

K-Means Clustering: Example


we have the following information: (a) gender, (b) age, (c) in
come, and (d) siblings.
Setting Up the Excel Sheet:

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

Standardizing the Attributes


 In row 11, the columns have been numbered 1 to 8. This
will be used later in the clustering process
 C9, mean for the age column= AVERAGE(C13:C268).
 C10, standard deviation for age column= STDEV(C13:C268)
 F13, standardized age=STANDARDIZE (C13,C$9,C$10).

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Setting Up the Clustering Model

 we need to set up the means to iteratively change cluster


centers
 compute the sum of squares of distances from the cluster
centers
 Solver iteratively change the cluster centers in order to
minimize the squared distance of each data point from its
nearest cluster center

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

Look Up for Cluster Centers

 Use M3 to M7 to identify the five cluster centers


 Name N2 to O2 as Zage, Zsiblings, and Zincome
 Name Q2 as Seeds
 Q3 to Q7 will still have the record of starting cluster centers
 In N3 to P7, Zage, Zsiblings, and Zincome
VLOOKUP($M3,$A$13:$H$268,N$1).

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Computing Squared Distances from Cluster Centers and


Assigning Clusters
 Copy-paste Id and Gender values from A12:B268 to J12:K268.
 Name L12:P12 D1 to D5 as headers for distances from cluster
centers 1 to 5.
 Compute the distance from Id
SUMXMY2($F13:$H13,$N$3:$P$3)
 compute the distance of Id 1 from cluster center 2
SUMXMY2($F13:$H13,$N$4:$P$4)
 In Q13, compute the distance of Id 1 to the closest cluster
center MIN(L13:P13)
 In R13, identify the closest to which Id 1 will be assigned

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

 Copy the formulae from L13:R13 to L14:R268 to complete


computations for all Ids
 In Q9, compute the sum of squared distances for all Ids
from their closest cluster center SUM(Q13:Q268)

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Using Solver to Arrive at Optimal Cluster Centers


 Enter Solver parameters as shown to find the optimal
cluster centers

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

 Run Solver to find the optimal cluster centers and


assignment of each ID to the closest cluster

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Interpretation of Clusters
 U13:V17 give the count and percent of customers belonging
to each cluster
 W13:W17 give the variance in each cluster
 X13:Z17 provide the average values for attributes within
each cluster
 AA13 to AA17 provide the percentage of Females in the
cluster
 X18:AA18 have the same values for the entire dataset

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

 Cluster 1: Higher income, fewer siblings, average age,


average percentage of females
 Cluster 2: Much younger (minors), very few siblings, very
low income
 Cluster 3: Many more siblings, average on all other
attributes
 Cluster 4: Much older, few siblings, average income, higher
percentage of females
 Cluster 5: Relatively older, few siblings, 6X income, and
average gender distribution.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Number of Clusters

 Till now, we used Excel, same method can be used to


develop two-, three-, or four-cluster solutions as well
 The elbow chart shows how the variance drops substantially
from 2 to 3 to 4 cluster solutions and starts stabilizing at 5

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

© U Copyright
Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Dinesh Kumar,
© 2021 IIM Bangalore
by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Marketing Analytics
Chapter 3 - Positioning

Dr. Seema Gupta


And
Avadhoot Jathar

© U Copyright
Marketing Analytics(by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Dinesh Kumar,
© 2021 IIM Bangalore
by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

MIT School of Distance Education 1


MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

LEARNING OBJECTIVES
 Define product positioning and understand its
importance.
 Construct different types of perceptual maps.
 Understand the importance of white spaces and use them
to your advantage.
 Recognize different types of product differentiation.
 Comprehend umbrella branding and its importance.
 Understand multidimensional analysis technique.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

How Pidilite Transformed Fevicol into


an FMCG Product
 Pidilite Industries Ltd. is a company that manufactures
adhesives
 It quickly gained popularity among carpenters for its ease
of usage and low pricing
 Pidilite decided to push Fevicol even further
 they devised specific advertisement campaigns that
combined minimalistic Indian cultural aspects along with
the bonding properties of the product
 This clever approach, complete with a logo tweak, a
catchy slogan, an important message, and a brand push,
enabled Fevicol to become one of the most recognized
brands in the category
Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

Introduction
 Product positioning The tools and techniques involved in
creating a mental picture of a product for consumers that
enable them to visualize the product and identify which
particular niche it belongs to

 we explore analytics techniques that can help brands


assess their product positioning as well as make changes
to product features

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Perceptual Mapping
 Perceptual mapping A visual method of showcasing how
an average target consumer perceives the positioning of
various products relative to their competitors.

 Determinant attributes Characteristics that drive


purchasing decisions when a consumer is presented with
multiple buying options

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

Consider the perceptual map


that uses the following
determinant attributes:
 To what extent does the
product appear to have
lower or higher amounts
of sugar.
 To what extent does the
product appear to have
lower or higher amounts
of caffeine.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Using Multiple Product Attributes


 Correspondence analysis A statistical technique used to
showcase interrelated data as plot points in a two
dimensional setting

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

Joint Perceptual Maps


 show the required
needs of various
market segments based
on the same attributes.
 The word “joint” is
used because the
segment requirements
are mapped hand in
hand with the
perceived positioning
of the product

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Constructing a Perceptual Map


 choose two determinant attributes

 The second step is to make a list of competitors that are


to be plotted onto a perceptual map

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

 The ratings are fictitious survey ratings for the two


attributes of trendiness and durability for the five clothing
retailers A, B, C, D, and E.

 Based on this map, we can infer that brand E has a


negative impression on its consumer

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

White Spaces
Case Study: How McDonalds Used White Spaces to Maximize
Profits
 started out as a tiny drive-in eatery serving barbeque and
burgers to customers in cars
 McDonalds saw this as an opportunity to reinvent their
business model
 Through an extensive study of their consumer base, they
found that most of their sales came solely from two items:
burgers and potato chips.
 They reduced the menu such that it only contained burgers
and potato chips, and scrapped the drive-in
 facility to make a walk-up window instead

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

Umbrella Brands
 A marketing technique in which multiple products are
sold under a single brand.
 It is also called family branding
 A product line is a category of products that a company
creates under a single brand. For example, Procter and
Gamble’s laundry detergent line includes products such as
Ariel and Tide.
 For example, Coca-Cola is known to contain high amounts
of sugar. In order to appeal to a more health conscious
and widespread demographic, Coke Zero was introduced
as an alternative.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Multidimensional Scaling
 It is a technique to visualize the extent of similarity
among individual observations in data.
 MDS is used to visually represent similarity between
products on the basis of key attributes of product
 the key to multidimensional scaling is the distance
between two points on a perception map. the distance
between two points, (x1, y1) and (x2 , y2 ) is given as

 Suppose two products l and m have features that are


numbered as (1, 2, 3,…,i). measure of dissimilarity as a
distance metric defined as

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 we must obtain a decomposition of the n × n matrix into n


× r and r × n matrices where a useful r is such that r < n
 Let us denote the symmetric distance matrix as B(i) = XiXi’
B(i) =UiiUi
 where Ui is a matrix of eigenvectors and UiUi I = . i is a
diagonal matrix of eigenvalues.
 The solution is thus Xi =Uii1/2, assuming all eigenvalues are
positive.
 The approach taken is called the Individual Differences
Scaling (INDSCAL) model and uses canonical decomposition
of three-way tables of size m× n × n

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 The R program for individual differences scaling is illustrated


below

 The next piece of code converts each individual data to an


individual level distance matrix with Euclidean distance
considered among any two products

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 The individual level distance matrix looks as follows

 The following code estimates the individual differences


scaling model on list1, a list of distance matrix for each
product, with argument ‘indscal’ in constraint of the
smacofIndDiff method

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 The following code provides the overall perception map


called group space

 Figure shows how various


products are perceived by the
group
 products 2 and 3 are similar and
the diametrically opposite
products 6 and 7 are different
from 2 and 3.

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 The subject spaces for the 15 panelists are obtained by the


following code

 subjects Ex033 and Ex019 are


similar in their perceptions so are
Ex277, Ex030, and Ex03A.
 Ex211, the similarity distinctions
that are made are based broadly
on only one dimension (Axis 1)
 Ex277 is making similarity
distinctions based on thesecond
dimension (Axis 2) alone
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Case Study
The Success Story of Netflix
 Netflix started out in 1997 as an e-commerce website
that rented out movie DVDs and TV shows to various
households in the United States.
 The original logo of Netflix had the words “net” and “flix”
separated by a film reel

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 Company as what can be termed as “internet movie retailers”.


 The 2004 design of the website continues the customer
centric, positioning approach.
 It stresses on the benefits of Netflix such as free shipping, large
number of titles, ease of service, and convenience in
cancellation

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 As DVDs started becoming outdated, Netflix moved away from


its initial business model of DVD rentals and focused on
becoming a pioneer in the domain of online streaming
 they made their website minimalistic, forayed into the original
content sphere
 Despite stiff competition from newer streaming services,
Netflix has over 180 million subscribers
 It is also one of the most successful examples of how the
gradual building of a brand position combined with a customer
centric approach can translate into high profits for firms.

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© U Copyright
Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Dinesh Kumar,
© 2021 IIM Bangalore
by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Marketing Analytics
Chapter 4 – Product Analysis

Dr. Seema Gupta


And
Avadhoot Jathar

© U Copyright
Marketing Analytics(by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Dinesh Kumar,
© 2021 IIM Bangalore
by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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LEARNING OBJECTIVES
 Know about the choice models.
 Learn conjoint analysis: principle, variables, steps, benefits,
and software.
 Understand the market forecasting and the S curve.
 Know about the Bass diffusion model and adopter
categories.

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Introduction
 The qualitative analysis of data to understand how users
interact with a product.
 The product can be related to consumer goods or even
IT products such as a banking app or a food-ordering app
 The actual users’ interaction with the product provides
rich understanding of usage patterns and preferences and
helps companies to correct the product features or
redesign better products

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Analyzing Digital Products


 the case of digital products, the data are available at the
level of each customer.
 to discern what is working for many customers or for a
product team to implement analytics using sophisticated
techniques that could be done once a large customer
base is available

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The following steps can be followed for analysis:

 Identifying business objectives given the nature of the


product
 Track your user’s journey
 In the case of digital products such as apps or CRM-oriented
products.The tools provide some of the following
functionalities:
• Track users on your app/site,
• Segment customers based on time, behavior, and location,
• Measure user engagement
• Communicate with your users and send notifications to the
product team

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• Tests various features and messages to attract customers


• Examine customer journeys.

Broadly, the following four reports are useful:


 Cohort retention analysis
 Journey analysis
 Feature performance
 Funnels analysis

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Analyzing Non-Digital Products


 Non-digital products in the traditional economic parlance,
are goods that are differentiated by marketers using
branding and feature variations.
 Choice modeling It is a model that helps in analyzing
and explaining the choices that a customer makes in the
market.
 Choice models can be of two varieties based on the
manner data have been acquired

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Choice models are popular techniques in market research


to empirically help in the following:

 Developing the marketing strategy


 Determining the pricing strategy
 Making attractive product features
 Generating appealing promotional offers

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Utility and Choice


 Consumer choice can be modeled as a result of utility
maximization a consumer does while choosing.
 So a consumer chooses products that maximize his/her
utility and he/she derives utility from a product from all
its product attributes.
 For some products, consumer choices are discrete
 Formally, a consumer i makes a choice of buying a brand j
from several products on his/her consideration set or
products that are available for purchase representing the
set as j = {1, 2, 3,…, j,…, J}, then his/her utility is maximum
for product j.

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 Equation says consumer i has more utility of product j


than any other product from the set j = {1, 2, 3,…, J}.
 utility is specified as a value derived from different
product features
 This can be represented as follows:

 Equation 4.2 suggests that the utility of a product to a


consumer is additive in the value he/she derives for each
of its features, where X1j may be the price, X2 j could be
the size of front camera, etc., for product j of category
smartphones
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 From previous equation and assuming that a consumer is


making choice of one product alone in the category on a
given purchase occasion, this choice can happen when
utility equations suggest the following:

 Consider for a choice, there are only three products to


choose from, and supposinga consumer chooses product
1 then we have two inequalities:

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 rearranging the terms, for m product features in


comparison across these three products, choice of
product 1 will happen when:

 So Pr (Product 1 is chosen) = Pr (Utility of 1 is more than


that of 2 and 3) = Pr (u1 > u2) and Pr (u1 > u3)

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 cumulative probability densities evaluated as following


integrals:

 The integrals of Eq. (4.6) can be evaluated using packages that


provide a cumulative density function value evaluated at points
12 and13. The errors called to be distributed independently
and identically (IID).

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Application of Choice Models


 We use a panel data of consumer purchases for ketchup
category and also check how this demand data can be used
to vary promotional prices on ketchup to improve sales.
 The choices presented in the sample are most common
 Let us consider the code for a choice model among four
products

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three different conjoint designs are possible


• Ranking-based conjoint
• Ratings-based conjoint
• Choice-based conjoint

 we could consider these rankings as some utility measures


provided by the consumer

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Conjoint Analysis—Survey Design and


Estimation
 It is used to develop new products based on the most
attractive set of features.
 conjoint analysis would be at a category level
 It may be much difficult to motivate a conjoint on a cross
category basis as we may be interested in ranking
attributes

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Product Attributes and Attribute Levels


 They arethe variables or characteristics that define the
product

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Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta
Avadhoot and Avadhoot
Jathar) CopyrightJathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd
2021 byWiley
India Pvt. Ltd

Product Levels
 The product level describes the possible values that an
attribute can take.
 For a hypothetical new product, some of these aesthetic
attributes could be defined based on first-stage qualitative
focus group interactions.
 In conjoint analysis, the customers are given a set of 15–
30 questions
 This model is then used to simulate responses for a
hypothetical profile or determine which profile is
predicted to have the highest utility for the sample of
consumers

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Steps in Performing Conjoint Analysis


 Step 1: The first step is to select the attributes of the
product.
 Step 2: Assigning the candidate levels to each attribute.
 Step 3: The product/service should be a cumulative
combination of all the possible attributes that a firm can
provide logically.
 Step 4 : Analysis

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Survey Design
 The number of possible level combinations is 6 × 1 × 5 ×
3 × 3 × 2 × 3 × 10 = 16,200, that is, 16,200 product
profiles are possible with these five attributes.
 asking 16,200 product profiles to each customer is not
possible

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 We could probably ask 32 choices as well, though this may be


an exhausting task for an individual respondent.
 Sample choicetasks would be like:
Which of the following products would you choose?
• HP, Intel@ Celeron N4020 Processor, 6 GB RAM, 1 TB HDD,
14 inch black @ `36,190
• Lenovo, AMD Ryzen-3 Processor, 4 GB, 256 GB SSD, 14 inch
Platinum Grey @` 43,249
• Mi Notebook, Intel Corei7 Processor, 4 GB RAM, 256 GB SSD,
Black 15.6 inches @` 43,249

 Respondents provide their preferred choice of products for


such choice tasks

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Market Forecasting
 When you have no history of the sales of products,
prediction of future product sales must be done with
market-level understanding of how new products or
innovations are adopted by consumers and, therefore, we
turn to diffusion theory.
 for forecasting new product sales: S curves and Bass
Diffusion Model.

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S Curves
 It is a forecasting tool that provides information regarding
the future growth of the product during a certain time
period.

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Bass Diffusion Model


 Companies need to plan the production and, therefore,
need to forecast the growth of the product over time.
 The Bass model proceeds with two categories of
customers: Innovators ,Imitators

n ( t)= sale of product in time period t.


N t ( ) = cumulative product sales through time period t.
N = total number of customers in the market.
P = external influence coefficient.
Q = internal influence coefficient.

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 Innovators: These are the first 2.5% of the people who


adopt new technology
 Adopters: These are the next 13.5% of people who guide
other people
 Early majority: This category belongs to 34% of the people
who read the reviews and then decide to buy a product.
 Late majority: This category belongs to 34% of the people
who only buy a new product because of peer pressure
 Laggards: These are the last 16% of the people who do not
buy the product

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Factors that Impact New Product


Adoption
 Compatibility: means how similar or how agreeable a
product is with the customer’s requirements and desires.
 Trialability: refers to how many times the product is
tried and tested before it is being adopted by the
customers.
 3. Observability: Observability is the maximum
threshold up to which the product can create results that
can be measured by the company.
 4. Complexity: refers to how complex or difficult the
product is to use.
 5. Relative advantage:degree of measurement to which
the product is better than the product
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Applying the Diffusion Model in


Marketing
A diffusion model can be applied to a market in two ways:
1. introducing a new product/service in the market
2. launching an existing product/service in a new market
 The first are innovators who can be targeted.
 Next are the adopters who can be targeted by creating
case studies
 Next is the early majority who can be targeted by creating
know-how videos and blog posts
 To attract customers from the late majority category, you
need to put up reviews online
 The last are the laggards. A bit difficult to crack because
cannot do much to attract them
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© U Copyright
Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Dinesh Kumar,
© 2021 IIM Bangalore
by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Marketing Analytics
Chapter 5 – Pricing

Dr. Seema Gupta


And
Avadhoot Jathar

© U Copyright
Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Dinesh Kumar,
© 2021 IIM Bangalore
by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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LEARNING OBJECTIVES
 List and explain the goals of pricing.
 Understand pricing strategies such as bundling, skimming,
and revenue management.
 Elucidate the relevance of pricing strategies to
products/service categories.
 Explain the concept of price promotions.
 List the various types of price promotions and discounts.
 Enumerate the ways to evaluate which price promotions
work.
 Comprehend price elasticity modeling and using
regression analysis for the same.

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Introduction
 It is the approach taken by a firm to set the price for the
product or services it sells.
 A company may be guided by a pricing objective it sets for
itself
 pricing may define further levers available to shape the
demand by considering decisions such as price increases,
price discounts, or price coordination

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Goals of Pricing
 Capturing market share
 Increasing unit sales/revenue for a product
 Clearance of inventory
 Loss leadership
 Exclusivity
 Signaling quality

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Bundling
 a strategy when a firm sells distinct goods together for a
packaged price.

 When firm sells distinct products together as a bundle at


a packaged price, lower than what consumers would have
paid if they had bought them individually.

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 Illustration of Bundling

 Single price strategy: minimum of the willingness to pay


among the two consumers:
Price of ESPN = $8 (will result in both buying ESPN)
Price of TBS = $1.5 (will result in both buying TBS)
Revenue from ESPN = $8 × 2 = $16
Revenue from TBS = $1.5 × 2 = $3
Total revenue = $19 (without bundling)

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 Bundling: Suppose a firm decides to offer a bundle of two


channels, ESPN and TBS, at $10.
Bundle price = $10 (will result in both customers buying a
bundle)
Total revenue = $10 × 2 = $20

 We must consider that the maximum bundling price must


be the smaller one of the willingness to pay among the
two customers

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Types of Bundling

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Analyzing Bundles as Promotions


 The efficacy of a bundle as a total entity may be examined
in an A/B testing setup.
 In the absence of A/B testing mechanism, where the
mixed bundle is present across all stores or locations as
part of promotions, an approach using regression
technique can be used.
 To examine the optimal price for a bundle we would need
A/B testing with differently priced bundles tested among
various locations

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Skimming
 A pricing technique where firms set high initial prices for
newly launched products in order to maximize their
profits.
 The aspects of the product such as novelty and originality
induce a sense of urgency in some customers toward
buying it.
 Price skimming is useful to recover huge investments
made for research and development

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Illustration of Price Skimming


 X smartwatch manufacturing firm, it has recently
developed technology, it plans to bring to the market
 Lowering the price would attract more customers
 though only marginally as only Q2 – Q1 customers are
available to buy
 though only marginally as only Q2 – Q1 customers are
available to buy
 this pricing method generates an overall revenue of X+ Y
+ Z cumulatively with prices P1 and P2.

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Appropriate Usage of Skimming


 Revenue management Itis a pricing strategy that helps to
predict the needs of a consumer in order to augment
inventory and price availability.
 It is essential for firms to understand which type of
products the skimming policy could be applied to.
 New technology-based products are initially sold at a
higher price to recover research and development costs

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To sum up, for skimming pricing strategy to work:


 The product must have novelty
 competitors may not be able to imitate thefeatures easily
 price-inelastic consumers who are willing to buy the
product at premium prices
 work with products with unique features that will justify
initial premium pricing
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Analytics with Price Skimming


 price point can be decided based on understanding the
willingness to pay of the relative price-inelastic consumer
group for the product.
 judging the willingness to pay of consumers would
require an elaborate conjoint analysis exercise.
 downward price revisions must be judged on the basis of
the elasticity of the product category

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Revenue Management
 sell a product at a lower price today in order to sell it at a
higher price tomorrow.
 The main challenge is to determine the demand of the
product over time.
 there are time dimensions to each sale
 Both revenue management in airlines and markdown
pricing in fashion make use of prices to cater to different
consumer segments while still achieving better revenue.

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Promotions
 Refers to setting price lower than actual list price for a
short term to attract price-sensitive customers and boost
sales by selling to them
 Some promotional offers come in the form of loyalty or
cashback points
 increasing loyalty-oriented (encouraging repeat purchase)
promotions are popular with retailers

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Measuring Promotional Lifts


 simple approach to lift measurement is not quite correct
as there could be several other factors
 For this formula to be useful, the non-promotional and
promotional timeframes must be reasonably short

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Types of Promotions
 Special event pricing
 Cash rebates
 Low-interest financing
 Warranties and service contrasts
 Psychological discounting
 Loss leader pricing:

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Discounting
 This refers to lower prices to consumers than the list
prices, and can manifest in several ways such as discount
coupons, cashbacks, or quality discounts or seasonal sales
and so on.

Types of Discounting
 Functional (trade) discounting
 Quantity discounting
 Cash discounting
 Seasonal discounting
 Geographical discounts

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Price Elasticity of a Beverage Brand


 Price elasticity measures change in demand due to a unit
change in price.
 percent change interpretation that how many % change
will be achieved in volume (quantity) for 1% change in
price.

 A leading whiskey marketer is interested in understanding


the elasticity of its premier whiskey brand.
 Whiskey is a nonessential product that falls in the
category of indulgence consumption with consumers
seasoned and loyal to the taste

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 Before attempting a model with price elasticity, it is essential


to explore data. The brand has three SKU sizes—180 ml, 350
ml, and 700 ml.

 We wish to evaluate the extent to which these increases


eroded volume sales, if at all.

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Figure shows trade promotion spends by brand with the


wholesalers. This is an occasional spend with no specific
time identified consistently over time by the brand.

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Transformations on Metric in Price


Elasticity Model
 Let us examine this closely as a regression model,
comprising only price and intercept variable:

 Noting that the econometric error is independent of price

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Price Adjustment with Inflation Measure


 firms increase prices over time. However, the effective
price increase faced by consumers must be price
increases adjusted by the inflation rate

 The R program (price_elasticity.R) estimates the price


elasticity

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 The following code reads each SKU-related data file to R


data tables sku_180, sku_350, and sku_700, respectively:

 The function head() displays the top five observations of


the data and gives us an idea of each variable:

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 The next lines of code calculate the effective, inflation-


adjusted real price faced by the consumer:

 Next, we create variables with logarithm of price and volumes


using these linesof code:

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 The following code estimates the elasticity

 The models estimated are as follows:

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© U Copyright
Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Dinesh Kumar,
© 2021 IIM Bangalore
by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Marketing Analytics
Chapter 6 – Marketing Mix

Dr. Seema Gupta


And
Avadhoot Jathar

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© 2021 IIM Bangalore
by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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LEARNING OBJECTIVES
 Understand marketing mix.
 Define market mix modelling (MMM), understand
variables in MMM and challenges with data.
 Comprehend statistical modeling with regression analysis.
 Understand optimization used in market mix modeling.

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INTRODUCTION
 Companies strive to maximize the Return on Investment
(RoI).
 Marketing is useful only if the right product is released at
the right time, location, and price.
 There are four important factors involved in marketing a
product, known as marketing mix:
Product , Price , Promotion , Place

 Market mix modeling is a set of methods used to


optimize marketing spending

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 Essentially, market mix modeling involves two main


methods, conducted sequentially:
 Statistical Models: elasticity models or response models
that measure the incremental volume sales created by
every additional dollar spent on each marketing tool

 Operations Research Model:possible to allocate budgets


on marketing that will provide maximum volume lift

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MARKET MIX MODELING


 a set of techniques used to optimize the spending on
marketing media.
 elasticity model for sales must clearly bring out baseline
volumes.
 Incremental drivers They consist of promotional and
marketing activities such as advertisements, social media
campaigns, offers, and promotional discounts.
 Base drivers: primarily consist of factors such as brand
equity which has been growing for many years

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VARIABLES IN MARKET MIX MODELING


 Base Variables: not influenced by marketing activities but
are dependent upon various other factors such as brand
equity, GDP, growth rate, and consumer sentiment
 Distribution variables: number of stores where the product
is available, the shelf life of the product , and several stock-
keeping units
 Seasonality: variables used for capturing time and season-
specific sales patterns
 Macro-economic variables:not directly under the control of
a company but they do affect them substantially
 Industry-level variables: specific factors outside the control
of a firm/brand
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INCREMENTAL VARIABLES
 Above-the-line (ATL) marketing: marketing activities that
are non-targeted and possess a wider reach.

 Below-the-line (BTL) marketing: marketing activities that


are targeted towards a particular audience and are very
specific and directive in nature

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OTHER VARIABLES
 Competition: in regression models, competitor
information, is included to compute elasticities.

 Halo and Cannibalization:


Halo effect refers to consumer favoritism towards a product
caused by good experiences
Cannibalization is the negative impact of promotions on a
product on another product sales

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TECHNIQUES OF MARKET MIX


MODELING
 Regression analysis It is a technique used to establish a
cause-effect relationship between a dependent variable
and a set of independent variables.

Multiple Linear Regression Model


 Suppose we have quarterly spends of a brand on
advertising and thecorresponding volume

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 choose the equation of this line such that the error in


fitting this line with actual data is small.
 the slope of the fitted line representing the relation
between x (advertising) and y (sales).
 these are applicable only over a range of budget spends
and become non-linear with ad-spends

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 Each new sample would lead to a different estimate of the


relationship.
 we next examine the variance of estimates

 Assuming X and are independent—it is a reasonable


assumption that error does not vary with values of
marketing mix X—the expression simplifies to

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The equation above is a square matrix and the diagonal


elements are variances of each of the β

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WHAT TO EXAMINE IN A REGRESSION


MODEL?
 Decision on metrics in model:the metrics that we really
need must be the first ones to be included in the model.
 Overall Model: the error variance of the regression
model, that is, the variance of the residual term

value of DV, the ratio defined as F would be close to 1 as


the denominator and numerator will have the same
expected value.

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 Significance of Model Parameters: our focus is on finding


relationship parameters β. This is judged based on the t-
statistic

 Where kk is the kth diagonal element of the variance matrix


of ˆ, var(βˆ) = δ^2(XX)−1.

 For multiple linear regression, we note the objective of


finding β that minimizes (y − Xβ )2.

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ESSENTIAL EVALUATION METRICS IN


REGRESSION
 Fit measures are useful for the relative comparison of
models with 5 variables and 8 variables.
 market mix modelling with 8 variables and better fit.

Adjusted R Squared

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 Variance Inflation Factor

Here, Rx1 2 is the R squared (explained variance) value


obtained by regressing one covariate x1 on the rest of the
(p −1) covariates [x2 ,x3 ,…,xp ] in the model.

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HETEROSKEDASTICITY
 assumption that regression error variance does not
increase or decrease with systematic increase in values of
explanatory variables.

 An important assumption regarding the regression error


is that it has constant variance and it is conditionally
independent of the explanatory variables in X.

 The estimate βˆ on log transformed ad spends actually


has an elasticity interpretation, that is, percent change in
ad-spend would result in βˆ percent change in sales.

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Predictive/Forecasting Ability Metrics


such as MAE/MAPE
 Mean Absolute Error (MAE) measures the average of the
absolute deviation of predicted values from actual values

 Other Considerations in Relation to Data


there are also a few other issues that a modeler needs to be
conscious of while building regression models,

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 Missing Data: Missing data needs to be handled before


using a metric in a model.
 Outliers: It is an observation that has a completely different
realized value of a metric as compared to the rest of the
sample data.

 Scaling Variables: important from the point of view of


understanding the relative importance of variables through
coefficient estimates βˆ using regression

 Variable Interactions: By specifying each of the media


spends, channel spends, or price changes, as separate
independent x variables

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 Multiplicative Specification – Response Models


It may also use the market share of a brand as an outcome
rather than sales.

 Ad Stock Variables and Incorporating Lags -- the model may


not have spend variables but can use the measurement of
the reach of ads in the form of TRP/GRP. Past ads can affect
the future sales of a product. This can be modeled in two
ways
1. Creation of Ad-stock
2. Using lagged variables for advertising in the model

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NON-LINEAR OPTIMIZATION
 Typically, the optimization problem can be framed in one
of the following two ways:
1. Minimize budget subject to achieving sales outcomes.
2. Maximize sales or market share subject to the budget
constraint.

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© U Copyright
Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Dinesh Kumar,
© 2021 IIM Bangalore
by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Marketing Analytics
Chapter 7 – Customer Journey

Dr. Seema Gupta


And
Avadhoot Jathar

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© 2021 IIM Bangalore
by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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LEARNING OBJECTIVES
 Understand customer journey and customer journey
mapping and explain the steps involved.
 List touchpoints and explain their importance with
illustrations.
 Explain the role of analytics in customer relationship
management with illustrations.
 Comprehend customer journey for a CPG brand and the
process of data gathering, analysis, and interpretation.
 Understand Principal Component Analysis and
dimensionality reduction in survey data.

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INTRODUCTION
 Customer journey: The journey a customer goes through
with a firm’s product in terms of considering a product,
engaging with product, making a purchase.
 Customer Relationship Management (CRM): It is an
approach to manage a company's interaction with current
and potential consumers.
 Principal Components Analysis (PCA) as a framework to
understand survey data about customer journeys with a
CPG product.

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IMPORTANCE OF
CUSTOMER JOURNEY
 Customer journey analysis presents the customer’s point
of view while purchasing a product.
 It provides digitized data (on a large scale) of every
customer interaction with the company.
 Each customer has different needs and addressing each
need may require a different product or a different way
to market a product.

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WHAT IS CUSTOMER JOURNEY


MAPPING?
 Customer journey mapping It is the process of tracking
the customer’s journey.
 Touchpoints: It can be defined as a way customers
interact with a brand. This interaction can be physical
or virtual.

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WHAT IS CUSTOMER JOURNEY


MAPPING?

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CUSTOMER JOURNEY MAPPING AND


USE OF ANALYTICS
 Customer journey mapping is the procedure of
mapping or representing the various touchpoints of a
customer’s journey on a visual map.
 Analytics in the context of customer journey helps
companies predict customer behavior and tracks
interactions through advanced tools and softwares.
 Analytics tools can also shape customer journeys in
real time.

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HOW TO MAP A CUSTOMER’S JOURNEY?


Data Gathering
 For tracking a specific customer’s journey, the customer’s
purchases, interactions, and engagements with the brand
or the firm over time, would be needed.
 Another technique to gather data is called “Follow me
home”.
 In the context of retailers, customer data is readily
available in terms of when a customer visited the store.

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HOW TO MAP A CUSTOMER’S


JOURNEY?
Creating a Buyer Persona
 The next step is to identify who your customers are.
 Multiple buyer personas need to be created so that multiple
categories of customers can be targeted
Determining the Stages of a Customer’s Journey
 Awareness
 Consideration
 Preference
 Action
 Loyalty
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HOW TO MAP A CUSTOMER’S


JOURNEY?
Determining the Touchpoints of a Customer’s Journey
 Digital mediums: Social media, blogs, websites, e-mails.
 Physical Mediums: Hoardings, stores, salespersons,
newspapers
Asking Customers
 It is always a good idea to survey customers about the
products or services they are buying.

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HOW TO MAP A CUSTOMER’S


JOURNEY?
Identifying the Pain Points in a Customer’s Journey
 The customer’s expectations were high but the product
delivered did not match up to their expectations.
 Enough information about the product was not provided.
 Competitors have better quality products/services.
 The customer was not aware of your company.
 The product that the customer wanted was not available with
your company.

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HOW TO MAP A CUSTOMER’S


JOURNEY?
Fixing the Problems
 Addressing the problems can be done in stages or may require a
complete overhaul.
 The ultimate goal should not just be to rectify problems, but to
make sure that the customer does not leave and comes a step
closer to becoming a loyal customer.
Updating
 After implementing the customer journey map, one must ensure
that it is updated at regular intervals.
 When customer data is available to the fullest extent (online
retailer incidence, product searches, and purchase), the journeys
are updated every week.

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WHAT DOES ANALYTICS WITH


CUSTOMER JOURNEYS
INVOLVE?
 Customer journeys can be inferred by combining various tools such as CRM, journey maps,
digital marketing, etc.
 Analyzing customer journeys using analytics involves two steps.
 The first step involves collecting data using a CRM system or surveys, forming a journey map,
and understanding each customer activity according to the stages of a customer’s journey.

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WHAT DOES ANALYTICS WITH


CUSTOMER JOURNEYS
INVOLVE?
 Key Performance Indicator (KPI) is a quantitative measure used to evaluate the performance.
It can be useful metric such as conversion rate or revenue or app downloads and is a generic
term.

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CUSTOMER JOURNEY USE CASE


FOR A BEVERAGE BRAND
 A leading beverage marketer involved in marketing soda
based beverages is interested in understanding the customer
journey of its loyal consumer base.
 Let us break this case into two important questions:
 How does the marketer understand if the company’s loyal customer
base is shrinking or not?
 Soda brands are sold through many channels.
 Online retailers would not share consumer-wise category consumption data with the brand.
 Consumers share their experiences on social media platforms mostly for experience goods such as
a visit to a restaurant, hotel, or spa, but are less likely to engage in conversations about low
involvement products such as beverages. Social media data, therefore, does not reflect any metric
that captures consumption by age group.
 Is the loyal customer base adjusting consumption to other alternatives
perceived less risky to health?

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JOURNEY OF A LOYAL
CUSTOMER
 It seems reasonable to have an estimate of consumption by a loyal group
through survey data.
 Surveys have traditionally been used by marketers and are administered
to specific age, income, gender, and geography based profiles.
 Brands may choose to seek a more nuanced view about the association of
loyal customers with them.
 To restate, the objectives of this analysis are as follows:
 To represent the evaluation of several emotional and engagement
metrics of loyal customers by a single metric.
 To indicate whether there is a decline in this single metric over time.
 The first objective is achieved by a technique known as Principal
Component Analysis (PCA).

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PRINCIPAL COMPONENT
ANALYSIS
 Principal Component Analysis is one of the techniques of dimension
reduction in data, while preserving most of the information.
 The combination vector u is selected such that the variance of the
elements of z are maximized

 This constrained optimization problem can be written as an unconstrained


problem using the Lagrange multiplier and can be solved by taking the first
derivative and equating it to zero.

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APPLYING PRINCIPAL
COMPONENTS TO BRAND
EVALUATIONS DATA
 The R program for applying principal components.
 The program can be found as .R file
‘ch3_loyal_cust_engagement_use_case.R’.
 Library ‘readxl’ helps read the excel sheet and ‘factoextra’ helps with
visualization of principal components.

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APPLYING PRINCIPAL
COMPONENTS TO BRAND
EVALUATIONS DATA
 We then set the working directory (folder on your drive) where input files are
placed and read the input file using ‘read_excel’ command.

 We then drop the column in the data frame that has the customer serial number.
 This is the first column and the following code accomplishes this task.

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APPLYING PRINCIPAL
COMPONENTS TO BRAND
EVALUATIONS DATA
 Scree plot plots eigenvalues of principal components with each principal
component in the model. The eigenvalues of components are in descending order.
 The eigenvalues represent variance of each successive principal component and
thus scree plot is used to select few components to represent enough variation in
the data.

Scree plot.

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APPLYING PRINCIPAL
COMPONENTS TO BRAND
EVALUATIONS DATA
 Another popular interpretation of principal components is to be examined by data
visualization.
 The original metric and the principal components can be represented on a
scatter plot as:

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APPLYING PRINCIPAL
COMPONENTS TO BRAND
EVALUATIONS DATA
 PCA is used in non-survey datasets for dimension reduction. For
example, images are high-dimensional data, and principal
components can be used to represent the data with only a few
variables (components).
 Also, principal components is a method to represent a large
number of variables with a smaller set of transformed variables
called components.
 These components are usually used in inference, which may be t-
statistics with the same component, or using components as
predictor variables in regression or supervised classification
techniques.

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© U Copyright
Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Dinesh Kumar,
© 2021 IIM Bangalore
by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Marketing Analytics
Chapter 8 – Nurturing Customers

Dr. Seema Gupta


And
Avadhoot Jathar

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by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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LEARNING OBJECTIVES
 Define customer experience analytics and understand its
goals.
 Understand the different metrics used for tracking
customer experience such as net promoter score,
customer effort score, churn rate, and upsell and cross-
sell rates.
 Understand logistic regression analysis and how to use
diagnostic tests and use logistic regression analysis as one
of the classification techniques.

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INTRODUCTION
 Customer experience: A holistic view of how consumer
interacts with the brand/product during all stages of
product purchase
 Consideration
 Purchase as well as post-purchase engagements in the
form of customer’s cognitive, psychological, and
behavioral responses.

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METRICS FOR TRACKING


CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE
 Net Promoter Score (NPS)
 Customer Effort Score (CES)
 Churn Rate
 Upsell and Cross-sell rate

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Customer Feedback Metrics

 Typically obtained from small survey responses that


firms obtain from their customers.
 Net Promoter Score: A single customer-centric metric that
determines the overall customer opinion/satisfaction about your
product/brand/service.
 Based on the scores, customers can be classified into one of the
following three types:
1. Promoters, whose rating is 9–10;
2. Passives, whose rating is 7–8;
3. Detractors, whose rating is 0–6.

Net promoter score.


NPS = % Promoters – % Detractors

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Customer Feedback Metrics


 Customer Satisfaction Score: Metric used to measure
how satisfied a customer is with the use of a
product/service.

Smileys for satisfaction.

 Customer Effort Score: It measures how difficult or


easy it was for a customer to get the work done.
 Usage of CES and NPS

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Behavior-Derived Customer Metric

 Churn Rate: Percentage of customer base that is lost


over a specific length of time, due to customers
switching to competitor products or switching out of
purchases in the category.
 Upsell and Cross-Sell Rates:
 Upselling: To recommend or sell a premium priced product
similar to customer’s current preference but a product with
better value or higher quality.
 Cross-selling: To recommend or sell products that
complement the original product.

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Behavior-Derived Customer Metric

Cross-selling headphones and upselling a more elaborate


burger.

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UPGRADING CUSTOMERS: USE CASE OF


UPSELLING
 Retailers typically use loyalty programs to offer incentives to customers
to make repeat purchases with them rather than having customers
churn to competitors.
 Loyalty programs usually involve measures such as charging a fees
upfront for future redemption of the fees during purchases, offering
electronic cash for future purchases, offering discounts.
 The challenge for retailers is to identify customers who can be sold a
particular type of loyalty product.
 Upgrading customers or upselling newer or premium services is a
typical use case for retailers as well as credit firms.
 A classification problem in analytics is a supervised classification
technique.
 A supervised problem has a variable to guide learning, that is, the class
variable “membership or non-membership” guides learning about
which behavioral metric (spends) helps define membership.

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LOGISTIC REGRESSION ANALYSIS


 Logistic regression is a technique to model a binary
outcome, that is, outcomes that can be defined by a
“yes” or “no” answer to any question; for example,
whether to upgrade a customer, whether to grant a
housing loan, whether a customer will default on the
next credit card payment, or whether a customer will
buy a premium product.

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Estimation of Model Parameters b


 The model parameters cannot be obtained directly
as a functional form equation of input metrics and
outcome.
 Instead, this estimation requires the maximum
likelihood method. Maximum-likelihood-based
estimation is an iterative process that involves
estimating parameters that will maximize the
chance of observing the given data.
 The method involves explicitly writing the
probability of each observation having an outcome
of y = 1 and choosing a value of that will maximize
the probability over all observations.
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Diagnostic Tests with Logistic


Regression

 ln LˆNull is equal to n[P lnP + (1- P)ln(1- P)], where P is the


proportion of 1s in the sample. ln ˆLU is the log likelihood of the
unrestricted model that we estimate. This statistic is distributed as
a chi-squared distribution with degrees of freedom equal to the
number of parameters (or variables) in the unrestricted model.
 The effect of each input metric can be judged using t-test values
for the estimated model parameters.
 This technique can be used for cause–effect inference and is
popular for its interpretability.

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Interpretation of Effect of a Metric on


Log-Odds
 The ratio of the probability of outcome y = 1, denoted
as p, to the probability of y = 0, is written as

 Logistic regression, therefore, readily provides


directional weight of the input metric in deciding the
outcome (event or non-event).

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USE OF LOGISTIC REGRESSION AS A


CLASSIFICATION TECHNIQUE
From the R program for logistic regression, the following code reads the
data:

The next task is to split the data into a training set and a test set.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

USE OF LOGISTIC REGRESSION AS A


CLASSIFICATION TECHNIQUE
A customer with lower total annual spends will have all other spends lower as
well. For the first iteration, we omit the annual spend and half-yearly spend
metrics to keep the issue of multicollinearity in check.

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USE OF LOGISTIC REGRESSION AS A


CLASSIFICATION TECHNIQUE
To examine model performance in the test sample, let us predict the
response
based on test data metric with the created logit model object.

We compare the predictions with actuals in a confusion matrix, also called a


misclassification matrix. We obtain the confusion matrix by the following code:

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© U Copyright
Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Dinesh Kumar,
© 2021 IIM Bangalore
by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Marketing Analytics
Chapter 9 – Customer Analytics

Dr. Seema Gupta


And
Avadhoot Jathar

© U Copyright
Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Dinesh Kumar,
© 2021 IIM Bangalore
by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

MIT School of Distance Education 1


MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

LEARNING OBJECTIVES
 Understand buyer personas and ways to build buyer
personas.
 Know the importance and process of calculating the
customer lifetime value.
 Learn ways to boost customer lifetime value and how to
identify profitable customers.
 Understand the importance of customer retention and
addressing customer churn.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

INTRODUCTION
 Customer personas: Fictional customers created after
analyzing and surveying real customers.
Key elements your buyer persona:
 Demographics
 Lifestyles
 Goals
 Personality
 Pain points

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

BUILDING A CUSTOMER
PERSONA

 Step 1: Customer Data Collection


 Step 2: Data Segregation
 Step 3: Refining Personas

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

BENEFITS OF CREATING CUSTOMER


PERSONAS
 Will get to know your customers better and will be
able to fulfill their demands accordingly.
 Once you have created relevant personas, you can
target the required audience more effectively.
 Building customer personas is not just for marketing
current products and services but also to forecast the
future needs of customers and develop products
accordingly.

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

PART OF BUYER PERSONA


 Sales representatives
 Marketing representatives
 Executive leadership
 Past customers

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

CUSTOMER LIFETIME VALUE


 It is a measure to determine how much a customer is
going to spend on your business over the whole period
of your relationship, or it can be defined as a metric to
calculate the total future profit you can expect from a
customer.
 The main advantage of focusing more on CLV is that it
enables you to make an efficient strategy to target the
required customers because all customers are not the
same.

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NEED FOR CALCULATING CLV


 A number of parameters are involved in calculating
how many customers you acquired in a day or week.
 These parameters include click-through rate, bounce
rates, conversion rates, etc.
 Simply knowing that you are getting a lot of new
customers is not enough.
 Retaining old customers is as important as getting new
ones.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

CALCULATING CLV

 The simplest one requires only three components:


 Average order value (AVG)
 Purchase frequency (PF)
 Customer lifetime length (CFL)

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BOOSTING CLV
 You can create a forum to actively answer any doubts
of customers. Form relationships with the customers,
and both parties can learn from each other.
 You should be able to analyze the trends and be up to
date with the customer’s journey. By utilizing these
data, you can figure out what improvements can be
made for the betterment of the customer’s journey.
 Only updating customers about a particular product is
not enough. You should be able to send customized
and personalized messages to the customers to satisfy
their needs. The key here is to engage with the
customers intelligently.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

IDENTIFYING PROFITABLE
CUSTOMERS
 Historical CLV
 It is found by identifying the past behavior of customers
without thinking about their future behavior.
 Predictive CLV
 It holds information about the past behaviors and future
expected retention of the customers to estimate their
lifetime value.

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COMPUTING CLV

where r is the probability of the customer


t

buying/being alive at time t, T is the time horizon


for estimating the CLV, i is the customer index, t
is the time index, and d is discount rate.
The three key parameters in CLV calculation:
Contribution margin
Retention rate
Time horizon
Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

EXAMPLE OF CLV
 Simple CLV

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EXAMPLE OF CLV
 CLV Computation with Annual Forecasts and
Discounting

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EXAMPLE OF CLV
 Adding Uncertainty to Parameters in Computing CLV

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CHURN ANALYTICS

 It is the analysis of the customer loss of a firm.


 Examples of how a customer leaves a company:
 1. Unsubscribing from updates.
 2. Deleting their accounts.
 3. Choosing another company.
 4. Nonrenewal of contract

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

CALCULATING CHURN RATE

1.

2.

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IDENTIFYING CHURN

 Subscription churn: It means when there is a certain


period for which the customer and the company are in
a relationship. After the period is over, it is up to the
customer to decide whether to renew the subscription
or leave.
 Non-subscription: It is up to the customer to end the
relationship with the company at any time.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

IMPORTANCE OF CUSTOMER RETENTION

 It has proven records of driving higher profits


 According to a report by McKinsey, the executive
teams that actively use customer data analytics in their
business observe an increase of 126% in profit than
the ones who do not use analytics.

Probability of selling to existing and


new customers.13

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© U Copyright
Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Dinesh Kumar,
© 2021 IIM Bangalore
by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Marketing Analytics
Chapter 10 – Digital Analytics: Metrics
and Measurement

Dr. Seema Gupta


And
Avadhoot Jathar

© U Copyright
Marketing Analytics(by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Dinesh Kumar,
© 2021 IIM Bangalore
by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

MIT School of Distance Education 1


MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

LEARNING OBJECTIVES
 Understand the metrics used in digital marketing and web
analytics.
 Explain attribution challenge with marketing and
understand how Shapley regression analysis can help
address the same.
 Understand common visualizations with these metrics
and tools.
 Understand how to use A/B testing and analysis of
variance (ANOVA) for field experiments, much common in
digital marketing.
 Explore technique of Bayesian networks to understand
probability-based relationships among various metrics.

Introduction
 aims at marketing a product using digital media
 Companies engage with customers digitally through a
variety of campaigns
 Analysis of variance (ANOVA) technique to compare two
or more groups for an outcome metric, that is, to check
whether the groups are similar or dissimilar on the
outcome metric
 A/B testing It consists of a randomized experiment of two
variants A and B these variants are used to compare two
variations of a same variable

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Important Web Metrics


 Overall website traffic This gives information about the
number of unique visitors who are visiting your website
for the first time, page views, the total number of visits,
etc.
 Conversion rate The total number of conversions divided
by the total number of visitors your site had.
 Customer rate optimization (CRO) The process of
recognizing conversion objectives, calculating the
conversion rates, and developing your app or website to
enhance your conversion rates.

Exit rate It is the percentage of visitors who exit your website


to go to another website.
 Some ways in which one can investigate the reason5 behind
high exit rates:
1. Recordings:It gives information about how users interact
with your webpage during their journey
2. Heat maps: They are used to identify what users are doing
on your webpages in terms of what they click on, how far
they scroll, what sections they ignore, etc

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 Scroll maps They give


information about the
percentage of people who
scroll down on your
webpage.

 Move maps They give


information about where a
user paused and moved
their mouse cursor.

 Click maps They give


information about the
places that were clicked
maximum number of
times on your webpage.

 On-site surveys:
companies typically ask
questions such as:
(a) What elements were you
looking for but could not
find?
(b) What barriers were
stopping you?

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How do you reduce exit rates?

 Slow loading speed of the page


 Issues in navigation
 Substandard UI/UX
 Distracting content

Bounce Rate
 Bounce rate This gives information about the proportion
of visitors who leave your website after going through
just one webpage
 Some of the reasons for visitors leaving may be:
1. The site takes too long to load a page.
2. An error page may be loaded.
3. Users are unable to find what they are looking for.
4. Users find what they are looking for but are not
compelled enough to proceedfurther.

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There are a few points that one must keep in mind while
interpreting a bounce rate:
 Type of website
 Type of marketing channel
 Type of visitor
 Type of device

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Click-Through Rate
 It is used to measure the ratio of the number of users
clicking on an ad, email, or a page to the total number of
impressions it has received
 PPC (pay-per-click) campaigns: These are campaigns
involving that incur a cost when customers click on them.

Page Views
 This is the total number of pages viewed on a site
 this helps tounderstand which sections of website are
valuable and which are not

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Sessions
 One digital engagement with a customer at a specific
time.
 A session may come to an end due to a campaign change
or because of time based expiration
 Campaign change: Google Analytics will store that
source’s campaign in its data lot, and if the same user
visits your site through a different campaign.
 Time-based expiration: There are two types of time-
based expiration
1. At midnight
2. After 30 min of inactivity

Time on Site
 This gives information about the amount of time people
have spent on your website.

 Analyzing Time on Page: A high bounce rate indicates that


users did not find what they were looking
left your site without adding anything to their cart

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Unique Visitors
 The individual people who visit the site over a specific
period of time.
 Even if a visitor visits the same site multiple times in a
given period, it will still be counted as one visit.

Attribution Challenge and Shapley


Regression
 it is important to understand that conversions must be
attributed rightly to the various clicks of a customer
before an eventual purchase.
 One of the ways of correct attribution is to use the game
theory approach known as Shapley value analysis

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 Shapley values can be derived using the following


equation

 The following code defines all possible subsets of channel


combinations that a customer may have been exposed to
before making a purchase

Marketing Analytics(by Seema Gupta and


Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright 2021 byWiley
India Pvt. Ltd

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 function accumulates the value of each coalition of


channels, that is, each combination of channels, and is the
value function of the set ѵ(S) described

 calculate the value functions of combinations by using the


function written earlier

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 The Shapley values thus calculated suggest the relative


importance of each channel in bringing in conversions.

 The two important properties of Shapley analysis that make


it very useful are

1. The value of each channel’s attribution is equal to the


number of conversions it is accountable for, and the sum
of all the channels’ attributions is equal to the total
number of conversions that were recorded
2. Each channel will be accounted for at least the number of
conversions it has had through exposure of customers in
that channel alone

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India Pvt. Ltd

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Test and Control or A/B Testing


 conducting a useful test–control requires the following
three processes

1. Identifying the right set of tests


2. Identifying homogenous groups of customers
3. Measure the test results

Marketing Analytics(by Seema Gupta and


Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright 2021 byWiley
India Pvt. Ltd

ANOVA and Regression


 Analysis of variance (ANOVA) is a technique used to
compare two or more groups for outcome metrics.
 We consider three groups (A, B, and C). Suppose the
metric y is available for each of these groups (yA , yB , yC )

 The null hypothesis we test is not the one of equality of


means

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 Assuming unequal sized groups, the total within-group


variance can be written as:

 is, the deviance of grand mean from each group mean,


multiplied by the number of observations in each group.

Marketing Analytics(by Seema Gupta and


Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright 2021 byWiley
India Pvt. Ltd

 The ratio of variances as a test statistic is distributed as an


F-distribution
 The degrees of freedom for the F-distribution are (n – m,m
– 2), where n is the total observations from m groups

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ANOVA: Linear Regression Model


 The regression specification is as follows:

 In the preceding regression equation, yij is the stacked


data of all groups j = {1, 2,…,m}, ԑij is the econometric
error, and i denotes every observation
 a null hypothesis to test as
 the F-statistic as it is defined as

Search Engine Marketing


 is a digital marketing strategy consisting of website
promotion for increasing visibility on the SERP through
paid efforts

 Why Is SEM Important?


1. an essential part of online marketing to expand a
company’s reach.
2. targets visitors at accurate times when they require new
information.
3. results are immediate

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SEM Platforms
 The most famous ad platform is Google Ads. There are
two networks offered by Google

1. Google Search Network


2. Google Display Network

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Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright 2021 byWiley
India Pvt. Ltd

How Does an Ad Win the Ad Auction


 it is not necessary that every single ad appears on the
search results page
 Quality Score is a metric based on an ad’s overall quality,
and maximum bid is the amount an advertiser is ready to
pay for a click on an ad

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Search Engine Optimization


 Search engine optimization is the procedure of expanding
traffic on site with the help of organic search results on a
search engine

 Working of SEO
1. Search engine crawling
2. Search engine indexing
3. Search engine ranking

Factors Affecting SEO


 Some factors that influence on-page SEO are
1. Title tag
2. Meta description
3. ALT tag
4. Internal links
5. Sub-headings

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India Pvt. Ltd

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Off-Page SEO
There are multiple ways in which you can use off-page SEO
to your benefit:
 Links
 Trust
 Social

Marketing Analytics(by Seema Gupta and


Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright 2021 byWiley
India Pvt. Ltd

Social Media Analytics


 The following are some of the most important metrics
that a business needs to track
 Social share of voice (SSoV):

 Social media conversion rate:

 Post reach

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App Marketing Metrics


 If you have a mobile app, then the following metrics are
important
 Retention
 Engagement
Session level, Session interval, Opt-ins, Opt-outs,
Interactions
 Cost per install (CPI)
 Average revenue per user (ARPU)

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© U Copyright
Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Dinesh Kumar,
© 2021 IIM Bangalore
by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Marketing Analytics
Chapter 11 -Artificial Intelligence and
Machine Learning

Dr. Seema Gupta


And
Avadhoot Jathar

© U Copyright
Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Dinesh Kumar,
© 2021 IIM Bangalore
by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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MARKETING ANALYTICS - S3EL4

LEARNING OBJECTIVES
 Understand tenets of deep learning (DL) and the
components of an artificial intelligence (AI) system.
 Think of and understand marketing use cases of AI/ML
algorithms in direct marketing, personalization, and
recommender systems.
 Understand thoughts/concepts involved with using text,
images data for marketing applications.
 Understand in-depth implementation details two
important use cases – targeting (direct marketing) and
recommendations – understand use of Python libraries
for such purposes.
 Understand the challenges involved with AI.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

INTRODUCTION
 Artificial intelligence (AI) is a simulation of human intelligence by
machines and its applications typical span natural language
processing, processing image/video data.
 Machine learning is a branch of Artificial Intelligence where
computer algorithms can perform certain tasks and improve this
performance through experience and by the use of data.
 Deep learning is a branch of Machine Learning and uses neural
network algorithms for the learning task. Deep learning is used with
data, such as images and text requiring natural language
processing.
 Recommender systems are systems designed to recommend
things (content, products, or services) to users. The
recommendations are based on user’s past behavior (things user
engages with) or behavior of users similar to given users.

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IMPORTANCE OF AI IN MARKETING
 It is extremely essential for businesses to understand
how AI can reshape consumer behavior and how to
exploit the same for business objectives.
 Primary objectives of AI in marketing can be:
 Identifying right target audience
 Branding
 Growth and financial improvements
 Chatbots is a software application that does online chat via text or text-to-
speech in lieu of direct contact with human agent.
 Content curation

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

KEY APPLICATIONS OF AI IN MARKETING


Personalization of Online Experience
 Personalization is done in the form of couponing and recommendations for
products, or even content that an individual may choose to engage with.
 Personalization is done with the website or app content shown to an
individual customer.

Benefits of Personalization – Marketing Professionals survey.

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KEY APPLICATIONS OF AI IN MARKETING


Chatbots
 Chatbots use AI-backed algorithms to offer online customer support and
guidance.
 Chatbots typically handle commonly recurring customer service issues very
well.

Kik’s customized options.

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KEY APPLICATIONS OF AI IN MARKETING


AI-Powered Dynamic Emailing
 This is a form of personalization of emails done
for each individual customer.
 The following are essential tasks of dynamic
emailing:
 Predictive send-time optimization
 Predictive subject lines
 Dynamically managing email assets such as templates

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COMMON TERMINOLOGIES – AI, ML,


AND DL
 AI as a discipline points to the potential of machines to imitate human like
intelligence in one way or another.
 ML algorithms refer to algorithms using repetitive sampling techniques for
achieving prediction and pattern recognition tasks with data.
 DL is a subset of ML, which in turn is a subset of AI.
 DL is a branch that uses multiple layers of neural networks for pattern
recognition and prediction tasks.
 Neural networks are computing systems inspired by the biological neural
networks that constitute animal brains. It is based on a collection of
connected units or nodes called artificial neurons, which loosely model the
neurons in a biological brain.
 ML models are key subset of methods of AI, we examine key concepts of ML
models.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

COMMON TERMINOLOGIES – AI, ML,


AND DL
Relationship between AI, ML, and Deep Learning.

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IMPORTANT CONCEPTS OF ML
 Techniques such as regression and logistic
regression are traditionally understood and
applied as single sample inference.
 The predictive ability of these techniques can
suffer severely if new data is different from the
single sample data with which the regression
models are built.
 Resampling techniques, thus, involve splitting
data and developing many models to help
achieve better predictive ability in the new
dataset that was not used to build the models.

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VARIANCE AND BIAS TRADE OFF


 The difference between the true value and the predicted value is
called the error.
 The error called as bias is the error arising due to wrong
assumptions about the learning algorithm.
 The bias would arise because of assuming a linear relationship
among variables than a relationship that may be non-linear.
 Training data is used to build the model.
 To avoid overfitting, we examine the concept of variance of the
model. We do not want the variance of the model to be too large,
that is, overfitted model that performs poorly in the data that the
model has not yet seen.

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TRAINING
 Process of building a model where an ML or DL algorithm
understands the complex relationship between labelled data and
predictor features.
 The process of building models typically entails some objective
minimization of distance between the actual label data and the
label data predicted by a model.
 Data annotation is a process of creating training dataset.
 For an image classification problem, images are labeled with a
class and this class becomes a categorical target variable.
 The predictive performance of model parameters is checked on
the validation dataset.
 There are additional parameters with resampling methods, known
as hyperparameters, that help with achieving least error metric in
the validation dataset.

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VALIDATION AND TEST


 Predictive accuracy is the key to any ML modelling task.
 Model validation includes assessing how good the model is in
predicting labels correctly in new data, which the model has not
yet seen.
 Three subsets of data are usually deployed in the process of
training, validation, and testing.
 A holdout dataset, called the test dataset is where the
performance of the model (prediction error) is checked.
 This idea is extended to k-fold cross-validation.
 Random forests is an ensemble learning method that combines
the outcomes of several decision trees built independently with
randomized feature space in each tree.

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THE k-FOLD CROSS-VALIDATION


 Cross-validation uses repeated sampling techniques.
 Other ways to decide the value of k are as follows:
 Representative
 Leave one out cross-validation

Splitting the data for k-fold cross-validation.

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THE k-FOLD CROSS-VALIDATION

Averaging with k-fold validation.

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BOOTSTRAPPING/BAGGING VALIDATION
 The training dataset is chosen at random.
 A key difference between bootstrapping and cross-validation is
that in the former, the average error rate changes in every
iteration.
 Bagging is used as a concept in random forest model, combining
inference of several tree-based models.

Bagging/bootstrapped averaging.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

REGULARIZATION PENALTY
 Regularization penalty methods avoid overfitting models.
 The penalty methods change the objective function to include a
penalty term.
 Regularization penalties are either based on the addition of the
square of model parameters to form a modified objective function
(ridge regression with L2 penalty), or the addition of the modulus
of model parameters to form a modified objective function
(LASSO regression with L1 penalty).
 Targeting has traditionally been done through demographics-
based rules and past engagement with a customer at a very basic
level.
 Booking a fixed deposit or not is a binary label.
 The problem for targeting is a classification problem.

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DECISION TREE
 A decision support tool that uses tree-like model of decisions and
the possible outcomes. Decision trees are partitioning algorithms
and are supervised techniques.
 The individual data with incomes, monthly expenses, and fixed
deposit booking is represented in a two-dimensional space.

Two-dimensional space and partitions.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

RANDOM FORESTS
 The modification from a simple bagging model.
 Random forest algorithm builds several decorrelated
trees and averages predictions.
 Extending this to random forests where multiple trees are
built, following are the parameters that decide accuracy:
 1. Number of trees grown
 2. Number of features (variables) used at random in
building a tree
 3. Maximum depth of any tree
 4. Minimum number of samples to split a node in a tree
 5. Criteria with which to split a node (entropy or Gini
index for classification and Mean squared error for
regression).
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Data Description and Formatting before


Classification Model
 We import numpy and pandas libraries for handling data and read
the dataset with read_csv of pandas.
 The data is read by the following two lines of Python code:

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Data Description and Formatting before


Classification Model
 We check the variable y from the dataset as the label indicating whether a
customer booked a deposit or not. It is coded as yes or no, it must be
converted into a 1/0 variable. This is done by user-defined function, here
is_yes(), that takes a string argument and returns 1 if string has ‘yes’ or
otherwise it returns 0.

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Data Description and Formatting before


Classification Model
 We then check the data types of the variables in dataframe. This is done
using code: bank_marketing.dtypes

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Data Description and Formatting before


Classification Model
 The indexes for these columns are given as a list in iloc.

We use describe() function with dataframe bank_marketing.

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Data Description and Formatting before


Classification Model
 We assign proper column names to data_scaled as column names of
data_to_scale.

The dataframe data_encoded has the final data to be used for training the
model.

Building several models with cross-validation and using different hyperparameter values is achieved using
search on parameter space with RandomizedSearchCV and GridSearchCV packages of
Sklearn.model_selection.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

MODEL EVALUATION USING ROC,


AUC, AND CONFUSION MATRIX

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MODEL EVALUATION USING ROC,


AUC, AND CONFUSION MATRIX

The receiver operating characteristics chart for random forest


model.

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MODEL EVALUATION USING ROC,


AUC, AND CONFUSION MATRIX

ROC Chart for best random forest model from randomized grid
search.

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BOOSTING TREES
 Boosting is an important concept in ML.
 The boosting classifier can be thought of as sequentially applying
classification algorithms on repeatedly modified versions of data.

ROC for gradient boosting classifier on test dataset

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

VARIABLE IMPORTANCE
 A tree is very good for visualization (if it is not too deep)
and for explaining splits as coded rules, random forests
with multiple trees do not have the advantage of such
simplicity.
 Across the trees, any variables that consistently help to
improve the split are ranked in the variable importance
chart.
 The variable Euribor 3-month rate and number related to
employment are the key variables in determining whether
a customer books a fixed deposit.
 Neural networks also work on the philosophy of
understanding a highly non-linear mapping of inputs to
outputs.
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SIMPLE FEED-FORWARD NETWORK


 Each node in every layer is connected to all the other nodes in
the previous layer.
 The connection is non-cyclic in nature and information moves
unidirectionally from the input layer to the hidden layer to the
output layer in this type of network.
 Activation functions: Mathematical transformations to connect
nodes in layers of a neural network – activation functions provide
way to map inputs to an output and choice of them depends on
nature of outcome variable and difficulties with optimizing weights
of a neural network.

Simple Neural Network


with 2 inputs, 1 output, 1
hidden layer with 2
nodes.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

DEEP NEURAL NETWORK


 A deep neural network contains numerous (N) hidden layers of
nodes between the input and output layers.
 Information flows through the ‘N’ number of layers and the
probability of the outcome is computed at each layer.
 Deep neural networks have many applications, such as
mathematical modelling, speech to text recognition, and computer
architecture.

Diagrammatic
representation of deep
neural network.

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IMAGE RECOGNITION
 Ubiquitous in security, transportation – driverless car technology,
defense systems, and ones that we regularly come across are
identification of people for security checks, captcha on websites
for allowing access to genuine users (as opposed to bots), and
improved experience in augmented reality gaming.
 Image recognition consists typically of one of the following three
tasks:
 Image classification
 Single object localization
 Object detection
 Based on the distinct features, it must identify class of feature:
 Collection and categorization of data
 Creating image features
 Classification–Learning algorithm

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

CONVOLUTIONAL NEURAL NETWORK


 A convolutional layer is used to analyze a part of an image.

Image and filter with 3 × 3 window.

Process of convolution
and feature map.

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CONVOLUTIONAL NEURAL NETWORK

Scan of an image with Prototype CNN architecture for image


zero padding, with a filter classification – four Convolution
(3  3). layers with Max pooling.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

MARKETING APPLICATIONS
OF IMAGE RECOGNITION

 Visual listening in
 Search experience coupled with images
 Auto tagging
 Recommendations based on interests
 Faster product checkouts
 Product information with an image

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WORKING WITH TEXTUAL DATA


 Textual data is commonplace for marketers
with product reviews, responses on social
media to campaigns or on twitter reflecting
sentiment about the products or services.
 The central themes are:
 Representing text data
 Model

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

RECURRENT NEURAL NETWORK


 Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), the network is
designed to take in a series of inputs, that is, not
just multiple values but a series that has
meaning in its temporal sequence.
 RNNs, therefore, can take inputs with no fixed
size vector (as simple neural networks would do)
but do need to remember the sequencing in the
inputs.
 RNNs have many applications in sentiment
analysis, autocorrection, and autosuggestion of
text; all tasks are within the domain of natural
language processing.
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RECOMMENDATION SYSTEMS
 Popularity-based recommendation
 Content-based recommendation

Following are two primary ways recommender systems are designed:


1. Collaborative filtering
2. Content-based filtering

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

COLLABORATIVE FILTERING
 Collaborative filtering is a method of making automatic predictions
(filtering) about the interests of a user by collecting preferences or
taste information from many users (collaborating).
 There are mainly the following two steps in this process:
 Search for consumers who have viewing patterns that are similar to that
of a sample user.
 The patterns obtained can be used to compute a new prediction for the
sample user.

Collaborative
filtering.

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CHALLENGES INVOLVED WITH AI


 Ethical and privacy issues
 Loss of human capital
 Lack of high-quality data and prohibitive infrastructure
costs

Challenges
associated with AI in
marketing.

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© U Copyright
Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Dinesh Kumar,
© 2021 IIM Bangalore
by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

Marketing Analytics
Chapter 12 - Data Visualization

Dr. Seema Gupta


And
Avadhoot Jathar

© U Copyright
Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Dinesh Kumar,
© 2021 IIM Bangalore
by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

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LEARNING OBJECTIVES
 Understand why visualization matters.
 Create important visualization charts with univariate,
multivariate data, and descriptive visualizations.
 Learn key visualization charts with some analytics
techniques.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

INTRODUCTION
 Information abstracted in some schematic form, including
attributes or variables for the units of information.
 Visualizations are useful primarily because they enable:
 Much quicker understanding of data than textual description.
 Clear highlighting of patterns in the data
 Visualizations of multiple business metric, help build a story quickly for
decision makers
 A robust visualization tool such as Tableau or Microsoft PowerBI
is essential.
 Visualizations form a modeling tool as well and typically
modelers use visualizations from Excel/R/Python packages for their
modelbuilding decisions.

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NECESSITY OF DATA VISUALIZATION


 Provide information intuitively for marketing managers.
 A pie chart showing the share of their brand is both
intuitive and easily readable than having to individually
read numbers of all 10 brands in a category.

Contd
Crowded pie chart with many brands.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

NECESSITY OF DATA VISUALIZATION

Total share of cereals for segment of all family/basic


products.
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UNDERSTAND PATTERNS AND TRENDS


 Data visualization is beneficial for finding patterns or
trends of different data categories.

Understanding patterns and trends: year-on-year


trend.
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SIMPLIFIED UNDERSTANDING OF
COMPLEX DATA
 Most human beings are visual learners.
 Going through sheets of massive numerical data can be
mentally taxing.
 Converting your complex data into simple visuals will save
time and cost of data analysis.

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DATA-DRIVEN STORYTELLING
 The story visuals ensure that the insights are well
received and acted upon.
 Data-driven storytelling is typically done with customized
visualization dashboards (built as an interactive website)
or dashboards built with large-scale visualization tools
such as Tableau.
 Building a storytelling dashboard involves three
components:
 Gathering and streamlining data
 Identifying visual components
 Building coherent narrative

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

DATA-DRIVEN STORYTELLING

Share and marketing


spend.
Visualization for storytelling: visual
components of dashboard.

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CHARTS
 The commonly used and popular visualization charts are
as follows:
 Bar charts
 Stacked Bar Graph
 Histogram
 Box Plot
 Violin Plot
 Pie Chart
 Scatter Plot
 Bubble Chart
 Line Chart
 Heat Map

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

BAR CHART
 A graph represented using rectangular blocks or bars.
 The bars can be represented either vertically or
horizontally.
 A bar chart may be used to represent a single variable
with the dimension of the unit of analysis as market or
time.
 Multiple variables can be used with a different color for
each bar.

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BAR CHART

Vertical bar chart: over time


comparison of same metric,
sales.

Horizontal bar chart: sales in


geographical markets at the
same point in time.

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STACKED BAR GRAPH


 Can compare the whole data category parts.

Stacked bar chart to compare data across quarter


and year (multiple cuts).

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HISTOGRAM
 bar graph used when grouped data are represented.

Histogram: bar chart with intervals.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

BOX PLOT
 A method used to represent grouped data in their
quartiles.
 Also employed to understand outliers if any in a variable.

Box plot: distribution


of variable over time

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VIOLIN PLOT
 small variation on the box plot where the kernel density
plot is superimposed on each side of the box plot.
 The density plot is also a way of understanding how a
random variable is distributed.

Density plot across demography cuts like gender and smoking habits
Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

PIE CHART
 Circular graphical representation charts of different categories for which a metric
sums up to 100%.
 Each section of the pie chart represents the proportion of the category in the
whole.
 Variation of pie chart, called doughnut chart, is extremely useful for providing the
percentage share of one category in the total market as opposed to many different
categories represented in a pie chart.

Pie chart: share of the whole, by each


entity.

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SCATTER PLOT
 Used to examine the relationship between any two
metrics.
 Useful for examining the relationship between two
continuous variables as opposed to continuous and
categorical variables.
 An extension of scatter plots is the scatter plot matrix.

Relationship between sales


and marketing spend.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

BUBBLE CHART
 Represent data with three dimensions.
 It is an extension of scatter plot.

Bubble chart: plotting a


third variable values as
size of dot on scatter plot.

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LINE CHART
 Formed simply by systematically connecting various
points plotted in the graph.
 Useful to represent data in a timeline.

Line chart for representing variation over time.


Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

HEAT MAP
 Used to visualize the density of a specific data using color
dimensions.
 Use a warm-to-cool color spectrum to show variation in values
by gradation.

Heat map.

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VISUALIZATIONS

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

VISUALIZATIONS USEFUL WITH


COMMON DATA SCIENCE TECHNIQUES
 Visualizations are not confined to just variables or metric alone
in isolation.
 Central also to communicating inference from
statistical/machine learning techniques.
 Any basic predictive models with sales requires two aspects:
 Visualizing sales or brand’s volume share or profit like measure for a
certain marketing input.
 (a) This could be done with a bar chart or a pie chart.
 Ability to change the marketing inputs and see the incremental change
in sales/share or profits.
 (a) Changing the marketing input requires an interactive editable input cells on
user interface, which can allow users to examine input values and output bar/pie
chart in the same visualization.

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VISUALIZATIONS FOR COMMUNICATING


REGRESSION INFERENCE

 Regression analysis provides insights that are important in two ways:


prediction for given input and marginal effect of each input.
 Analytics practitioners think of representing regression inference in three
ways for marketing analytics use cases:
 Decomposition charts
 Elasticity and decomposition chart

Decomposition chart: year-on-year change.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

VISUALIZATIONS FOR COMMUNICATING


REGRESSION INFERENCE

Trend charts with regression

Trend chart with sales regression and important predictor price.

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Visualizations for Communicating


Regression Inference
Important variables using bar plot/box plot.
 Red and blue colors denote variables with negative and positive significant
effects, respectively.

Regression coefficients and confidence intervals

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

VISUALIZATION INFERENCE FOR


PREDICTIVE MACHINE LEARNING
MODELS
 With machine learning techniques (gradient boosted trees, random forests, neural
networks) that are predictive techniques with repeated sampling done primarily to
improve cross-validation predictability, one of the key graphs is variable importance
chart.

Variable importance.

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COMMUNICATING INFERENCE WITH


SEGMENTATION/CLUSTERING
 Predominantly two clustering methods find applications with marketing
analytics:
 K-means (or K-median) clustering used typically to segment consumers.
 Hierarchical clustering to segment markets (or identify markets that are more alike).

Visualizing a cluster
solution.

Marketing Analytics (by Seema Gupta and Avadhoot Jathar) Copyright © 2021 by Wiley India Pvt. Ltd

COMMUNICATING INFERENCE WITH


SEGMENTATION/CLUSTERING
 Segmentation refers to the process of categorizing groups of data based on
their similarities.

Hierarchical
clustering: market
segmentation

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CONCLUSION
 Visualization is key to communicating a story as seen with
the data.
 In this objective, the multiple chart dashboards are
common with marketing practitioners.
 We discussed key charts and their uses for visualizing
typical marketing data.
 We have also considered how model-based inference is
communicated to business leaders using simple
visualization charts.

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