FMCG

MONITOR

FY 2022 IN-HOME EDITION

An integrated view of Indonesia FMCG market

Featured Focus ✹ Forecasting FMCG Growth

Executive summary

1 2 3 4 5 6
MARKET FMCG SHOPPER SEGMENT RETAILERS EMERGING
UPDATE PERFORMANCE BEHAVIOUR PERFORMANCE SNAPSHOT TRENDS
Indonesian annual GDP FMCG growth is seen at The price increase is still In most sectors, price Spend growth is mainly Although FMCG growth
in 2022 grow to 5.3% 7% a steady growth from the main driver for increase remains the driven by price increases in 2023 is expected to be
and back to pre- the previous quarter as higher consumer growth driver, hence across offline channels, lower than last year, this
pandemic level, but inflation pressures spending across SES important for brands to yet online (digital presents an opportunity
slower in Q4 compared continues. Coping with hence important to stay anticipate category commerce) continues to for brands to adapt to
to previous quarter, the price increase, relevant in consumers’ prioritization. But the grow from more the ever-changing needs
while household reducing spend per trip baskets and win higher home care sector shoppers, suggesting of consumers. As
consumption stays at becomes a rationale, volume per trip to grow. manages to grow volume shoppers might look for shoppers continue to
the same level as last which indicates shoppers indicating higher traction better value for money on adjust their purchasing
quarter with around 5% might choose cheaper of smaller packs top of convenience. habits, FMCG brands
growth. brands or smaller packs. need to work harder to
compete for a share of
Inflation pressure wallets.
continues along with
higher exchange rates,
which might drive a
decline in consumer
confidence level.

2
Indonesia Economy Growth

Indonesian annual GDP in 2022 grow to 5.31% and back to pre-pandemic level, but slower in Q4 compared to previous
quarter, while household consumption stay at the same level as last quarter with around 5% growth.

INDONESIA GDP INDONESIA GDP GDP Growth

Q3 22 Q4 22
YoY GROWTH RATE % ANNUAL GROWTH RATE % YoY%

5,2 5,31
5,02

Household 5.39 4.93

3,69
Consumption
5,72
5,44
5,02 5,01 5,01 Investment 6.09 5.64

Government
-2.88 -4.51
Spending
FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020 FY 2021 FY 2022

Export 21.64 16.28

-2,07
Import 22.98 14.75
Q4 '21 Q1 '22 Q2 '22 Q3 '22 Q4 '22

Source: Trading Economics, Central Bureau on Statistics (BPS) 3

Indonesian Consumers

Inflation pressure also continues along with higher exchange rates, which might drive a setback in consumer confidence
level.

INFLATION RATE | YoY Growth % CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX (CCI) USD EXCHANGE RATE

5,51 118 120

15.565
97
14.343
14.025

1,68 1,87

Dec '20 Dec '21 Dec '22 Dec '20 Dec '21 Dec '22 Dec '20 Dec '21 Dec '22

Source: Trading Economics, Central Bureau on Statistics (BPS) 4

FMCG Expenditure Survey

Shoppers allocate their spending more towards primary needs such as fresh food, FMCG, transportation, utilities and
education while they deprioritize their spending on non-primary sectors especially durable goods, fashion/clothes, housing
and travel.

ID HHS SHARE OF WALLET BY SECTORS | Spend %

Q4 21 Q4 22

24 24 Absolute Expenditure Increase Household Expenditure

19 19
FMCG

Fresh Food
1.07M
1.33M
1.08M
1.36 M
0.9%
1.9%
+1.3%
vs LY
Q4 2021 Q4 2022

9,4
8,2
6,7 7,3
6,1 6,5 5,5 5,6
3,8 3,8 3,8 3,4 3,8 3,5
2,7 3,1 3,1 2,7 2,4 2,5 2,5 2,3 2,3 2,3 1,9 2,1 1,3 1,3 1,6
0,8 0,6 0,6 0,3 0,2

ood G ion lit ie

s in g ti on ood
s ion sing es are ony tu re Out T ax vel en t by ers
sh F F MC ort at U ti Sav ni ca l eG u ca t Hou Cl oth al th c e rem r icul t ing T ra e st m / Hob Ot h
F re nsp mu a b E d
h io
n / H e
t y/
C A g E a Inv nt
T ra Com Du r F as Pa r ai n
me
e rt
Ent

Source: Kantar, Worldpanel FMCG, Expenditure Survey, Indonesia Urban and Rural, Q2 2022
5
FMCG Performance

FMCG growth is seen at 7% a steady growth from the previous quarter as inflation pressures continue. Coping with the price
increase, reducing spend per trip becomes a rationale, which indicates shoppers might choose cheaper brands or smaller packs.

VALUE, VOLUME & PRICE FREQUENCY, UNITS BOUGHT

& SPEND PER TRIP
Price per Unit Units Bought per Shopping Trip
Value 20 FMCG IN HOME FY 2021 FY 2022
20 No of Shopping Trips
Volume (Unit)
Spend per Shopping Trip Value 5% 7%
15 15
Volume (units) 2% 1%
10 10
Price per unit 3% 6%
5 Frequency -2% -1%
5

0
0

0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 -5
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202 202
FMCG IN HOME | INDONESIA URBAN+RURAL | 12 weeks YOY trend Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FMCG IN HOME | INDONESIA URBAN+RURAL | MAT YoY

6
Shopper Behavior

The price increase is still the main driver for higher consumer spending across SES hence important to stay relevant in
consumers’ baskets and win higher volume per trip to grow.

Value Buyer Frequency Spend per Trip (IDR) Volume per Trip (Units) Price per Unit (IDR)
Share % Share %
260 280 300 320 20000 40000 5 10 15 2000 4000

NATIONAL HH
100 100 EXPENDITURE -1% +6% +0.1% +6%

38 26 SES A&B -1% +5% +0.3% +5%

40 40 SES C
-0.1% +5% -0.3% +5%

23 33 SES DE
-2% +6% +0.2% +6%

FY 2021 FY 2022 FMCG IN HOME | INDONESIA

URBAN+RURAL

7
FMCG Segments Performance

In most sectors, price increase remains the growth driver, hence important for brands to anticipate category prioritization.
But the home care sector manages to grow volume indicating higher traction of smaller packs

Frequency Volume per Trip (Unit) Spend per Trip (IDR) Price per Unit (IDR)
100 200 300
5 10
0 10.000 20.000 30.000 0 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000

HOME CARE
-3% +4% +6% +1%

PERSONAL CARE
-2% +2% +7% +5%

DAIRY
-5% -1% +7% +8%

FOOD
-2% +1% +9% +8%

BEVERAGES
-3% +1% +6% +5%

FY 2021 FY 2022 FMCG IN HOME | INDONESIA

URBAN+RURAL

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Snapshot Channels

Spend growth is mainly driven by price increases across offline channels, yet online (digital commerce) continues to grow
from more shoppers, suggesting shoppers might look for better value for money on top of convenience.
Purchase Behavior Across Channel
Shopping Occasion % Penetration % Frequency Volume per Trip (Unit) Spend per Trip (IDR)
50 100 200 400 10 20 0 50.000 100.000
3 3
Total Trade
Channel +0% -1% +0.1% +6%

HSM -3% -1% -2% +2%

Other Channels
Mini market +1% -3% +0.1% +5%
83 83
Traditional Trade
Total Traditional
Trade - -1% +0.3% +6%
Specialty Store*
Specialty Store
TOTAL MT +0.3% -1% -0.1% +7%
Minimarket
5 5 Online
+24% +24% +0.1% -2%
8 8
HSM
FY 21 FY 22

FY 2021 FY 2022 FMCG IN HOME | INDONESIA

URBAN+RURAL

*Specialty Store: Depot Air Isi Ulang, Drug Store, Personal Care, Baby Store, Cosmetics Store, Milk Store 9
Featured focus: Indonesia’s FMCG Outlook 2023

The Indonesian market is experiencing With unit sales grew more modestly at FMCG Growth
higher levels of inflation, but consumers 1%, consumers are taking positive steps
are finding ways to cope. Despite these to manage their household budgets. 7%
5%
pressures, the country's FMCG market has Although FMCG growth in 2023 is
Value Growth %
continued to grow, with a value increase expected to be lower than last year, this
of 7% in 2022 compared to 5% in the presents an opportunity for brands to
previous year. adapt to the ever-changing needs of
consumers. As shoppers continue to
adjust their purchasing habits, FMCG 2%
brands need to work harder to compete Unit Growth %
1%
for a share of wallets.

6%
Price/Unit
3%
Growth %

To understand more about the

FMCG Outlook Indonesia 2023, you can read
YTD Oct 21 vs YA YTD Oct 22 vs YA
the complete report or get in touch with us.

10
 ID EN EN

Future Proof Indonesia is a

conversational podcast by
Kantar Indonesia.
The podcast prevails the discourses Lia Kurtz, FMCG Category In this episode, we had an Venu Madhav reflects on the
that evolve around the industry of Director at Lazada Indonesia interesting conversation with challenges and highlights of
marketing and research. In each share her insights on the future Sociolla's Chief Business Officer, 2022 as well as what lies ahead
of online shopping in Indonesia. Ngoc Phungbich. As a beauty- in 2023. What are the keys to
episode, we invite the experts to
tech company, how they follow success for FMCG Brands in
discuss evidence and share their consumers' journey from online 2022?
insights for the future. to offline?

Click on the cover to listen

ID : Episode in Bahasa Indonesia 11
EN: Episode in English
OUR CONTRIBUTORS

Venu Madhav Corina Fajriyani Shafira Jumantara Hanif Revano Novi Almyra
Managing Director Senior Marketing Marketing Manager Senior Designer Executive Maharani
Worldpanel Division Manager Worldpanel Division Worldpanel Division Account Executive
Kantar Indonesia Worldpanel Division Kantar Indonesia Kantar Indonesia Worldpanel Division
Kantar Indonesia
Kantar Indonesia

12
Terms Glossary

TRADE CHANNEL DEFINITION IN HOME CONSUMPTION

Specialty Store Milk Store, Baby Store, Cosmetics Store, Drug Store, The consumption of FMCG products within home of panelist after the
Apothecary, Refill Water Kiosk purchase made and being reported in In Home dairy

Internet based marketplace which displays products Category Tracked 90+ (Exclude tobacco and fresh food)
Online
virtually via dedicated websites that can be accessed Scope Indonesia Urban + Rural
anytime. No direct face-to-face transaction occurs in Household representatives 68 Million
the purchasing process.
OUT OF HOME CONSUMPTION
MEASUREMENT DEFINITION The consumption of FMCG products outside panelist home and it is
consumed right away after the purchase made at the shop. The panelist
Penetration The percentage of households do purchase at least
will bring the used pack as proof of consumption and being reported in
once in a given period of time
out of home dairy.
Frequency The average number of shopping trips made to
purchase the product in a given period of time Category Tracked 22
List of Categories Ready to Drink (RTD) RTD coffee; isotonic drink;
Occasion / Trip The actual number of purchase occasion / shopping
D tea; energy drink; RTD juice; RTD milk;
trip in a given period of time
carbonated soda drink; mineral water; cultured
Spend per Trip The average amount that buyers payed in a single milk; soya milk; yoghurt drink; health food drink;
shopping trip Ready to Eat (RTE) potato snack; extruded snack;
chocolate; ice cream; candy; cold cereal; biscuits;
Volume per Trip The average volume that buyers purchased in a single
cup noodle; RTE sausages; chewing gum
shopping trip
Price per Unit The average price that buyers payed for a single unit Scope Indonesia Urban

Individual representatives 130+ million from the same Household

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Kantar is the world’s leading data, insights and consulting company
We understand more about how people think, feel, shop, share, vote and
view than anyone else. Combining our expertise in human understanding
with advanced technologies, Kantar’s 30,000 people help the world’s
leading organizations succeed and grow.

These findings are based on Worldpanel FMCG data. In Indonesia, Kantar

monitors in home and out of home consumption, in the FMCG front, every
single week. We track household purchases of over 90 different FMCG
categories across food and nonfood. Our in-home data represents 68
million of Indonesia Urban and Rural Household population. Our out of
home data represents 130 million of Indonesia Urban population.

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