Health Report
Health Report
Health Report
Bin Jalaludin
Christine Cowie
30 June 2012
1
Background
1. All relevant health endpoints for PM10, PM2.5, NO2, O3 and SO2 to be identified.
2. For each health endpoint, the relevant associated CRF will be identified. In the first
instance, CRFs from Australian studies will be identified. If Australian studies are either
not available or not appropriate, then CRFs from international studies will be identified.
3. Health endpoints and associated CRFs to be identified solely from published reports,
systematic reviews and meta-analyses. The grey literature from the United Kingdom (for
example, Department of Health), United States (for example, US EPA), the European
Union, World Health Organization and Australia, and electronic databases (for example,
Medline, PubMed) will be searched for any published systematic reviews and meta-
analyses. Literature reviews, systematic reviews or meta-analyses of primary studies
will not be conducted.
4. Weight of evidence (WoE) assessments of primary studies will not be conducted. WoE
requires interpretation of findings from all epidemiological and toxicological studies (of
air pollutants in this instance) to form a considered opinion on the relevance and the
significance of the findings overall. It involves evaluating the quality of measurement
methods, size and power of study design, consistency of results across studies, and
biological plausibility of CRFs and statistical associations. Such WoE assessments are
beyond the scope of this consultancy. WoE outlined in reviews and reports identified
under point 3 above will be assessed.
5. Information on the availability of routinely collected baseline health data at the state or
national level where available will be provided.
2
Health effects of air pollution
Exposure to ambient air pollution has been linked to various health outcomes ranging from
small transient changes in the respiratory tract and impaired lung function, restricted
activity/reduced performance, emergency department visits and hospital admissions to
mortality. There is also now strong evidence that there are important effects on the
cardiovascular system. The most severe effects in terms of the overall health burden include
a significant reduction in life expectancy of the average population which is linked to long-
term exposure to high levels of particulate matter (PM). Documented health effects
associated with air pollution exposures are shown in the table below (WHO Europe 2000;
WHO Europe 2004).
3
Increased mortality
Health risk assessments (HRAs) are often undertaken to provide data for cost-benefit
analyses (CBAs).
The World Health Organisation has suggested that health outcomes that are potentially
relevant and should be considered in a HRA include the following (WHO Europe 2001):
Reproductive outcomes
Pregnancy complications (including foetal death)
Low birth weight
4
Pre-term delivery
However, in reviewing existing guideline documents it is clear that evidence for some of
these outcomes is either inadequate or inconsistent, leading to difficulty in setting CRFs.
Where data are adequate, CRFs have been established. Often these have been location
specific with European agencies using data from European studies and the United States
Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) using data from US studies. Occasionally, CRFs
have been chosen based on the results of one epidemiological study only. Reports of CBAs
of air pollutants provide a good source of information on CRFs and these have been
reviewed for this project.
A recent report summarised eight major CBAs (Jalaludin, Salkeld et al. 2009) from the USA
(US EPA 1999; US EPA 2004), Europe (Seethaler 1999; AEA Technology Environment
2005; DEFRA 2006), New Zealand (Fisher, Kjellstrom et al. 2005) and Australia (BTRE
2005; DEC 2005). The pollutants commonly evaluated in CBAs include PM10, PM2.5, O3, SO2,
NO2 and carbon monoxide (CO). There is good evidence and a broad epidemiological
literature to obtain CRFs for PM. While all of the eight CBAs assessed the effects of PM, four
of them (Seethaler 1999; BTRE 2005; DEC 2005; Fisher, Kjellstrom et al. 2005) used PM as
the only indicator of ambient air pollution for cost-benefit purposes. However, a concern is
that selecting only one ambient air pollutant as the main pollutant may underestimate the
magnitude of the health effects. Adding the health effect estimates of another air pollutant
not correlated with PM (for example, O3) can minimise the extent of this underestimation.
Some of the reviewed CBAs have used this approach.
However, other CBAs also quantified the health effects of other air pollutants, for example,
SO2, NO2 and CO, in addition to PM either in the main analysis or in sensitivity analyses. An
issue here is that ambient concentration of some of these air pollutants are highly correlated
making it difficult to separate out the effects of the individual pollutants. This is particularly
the case for PM and NO2, PM and SO2 (overseas) and also sometimes for NO2 and O3. It is
therefore thought that NO2 and SO2 might be markers or surrogates of the effects of PM
pollution and that they do not exert independent adverse effects on health. Therefore, simply
summing the health effects associated with each of the specific pollutants can lead to an
overestimation of the total health effects.
5
Some studies have used multi-pollutant models in their analyses in an attempt to distinguish
the independent effects of each pollutant. In general, they have found that the estimates for
the effects of PM pollution are robust and change minimally when pollutants such as NO2
and SO2 are added to the model. This implies that the majority of effects seen are likely to be
due to exposure to PM in ambient air rather than to the other pollutants. In Australian
studies, the effects of exposure to O3 have been similarly robust and independent of the
effects of other pollutants.
Therefore, in HRAs and CBAs, use is often made of a single index pollutant (or surrogate
pollutant) or alternatively two pollutants. This approach encompasses the majority of effects
of all other correlated pollutants, and avoids the issue of overestimation of effects. Currently,
the USEPA (US EPA 2011) and the European Commission (European Commission 2005)
focus only on PM and O3 in their HRAs, for these reasons. The recent CBA from the United
States (US EPA 2011) quantified and monetised health endpoints only for PM and O3 as
follows:
1. PM
a. Premature mortality (long-term exposure)
b. Chronic and acute bronchitis
c. Hospital admissions for cardiovascular disease and respiratory disease
d. Emergency department visits for asthma
e. Non-fatal heart attacks
f. Lower respiratory symptoms
g. Minor restricted activity days
h. Work loss days
i. Asthma exacerbations (asthmatic population)
j. Upper respiratory symptoms (asthmatic population)
k. Infant mortality
2. O3
a. Premature mortality (short-term exposure)
b. Hospital admissions for respiratory disease
c. Emergency department visits for asthma
d. Minor restricted activity days
e. School loss days
f. Outdoor worker productivity
6
Health effects associated with ambient air pollution are divided into two broad categories -
premature mortality and morbidity. For PM (PM10, PM2.5), there is an established association
with both long-term and short-term premature mortality. Only one CBA (DEFRA 2006)
quantified both the long-term and short-term premature mortality. The other CBAs only
quantified long-term premature mortality as any short-term mortality effects would be
captured in the long-term mortality effects. The other two key health effects quantified for PM
by all the CBAs were respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions.
Of the eight CBAs reviewed, four quantified the health effects associated with O3 (US EPA
1999; US EPA 2004; AEA Technology Environment 2005; DEFRA 2006). The most common
health effect quantified was respiratory hospital admissions. Two CBAs also quantified the
short-term effect of ozone on premature mortality (AEA Technology Environment 2005;
DEFRA 2006). Other health endpoints reported in at least two CBAs were emergency
department visits for asthma and minor restricted activity days, although at least for the latter
health outcome, quantification is based primarily on one study only.
Two CBAs quantified the effects of NO2 (US EPA 1999; DEFRA 2006) and SO2 (US EPA
1999; DEFRA 2006) and only one report quantified the effect of CO (US EPA 1999). For
NO2, the health effects that were quantified included respiratory and cardiovascular disease
hospital admissions and respiratory illness; for SO2 they included short-term mortality,
cardiovascular disease hospital admissions and respiratory illness; and, for CO they
included only respiratory and cardiovascular disease hospital admissions.
7
Any clinically significant effect of air pollution should be considered adverse.
Broader quality-of-life issues, such as work loss days and school absenteeism,
should be considered as health outcomes where data are available.
CRFs obtained from meta-analyses or multi-city studies should be used, provided the
primary data are homogeneous. If significant heterogeneity is present, then CRFs for
single cities should be used, and risk assessed for the relevant cities for which data
are available.
When individual epidemiological studies are used to derive CRFs, the National Health and
Medical Research Council (National Health and Medical Research Council 2006)
recommends the following steps to assess the validity and usefulness of such studies:
8
Step 1—Evaluate studies for internal validity: that is, the adequacy of study design
and the extent to which it has validly measured what it intends or purports to
measure.
Step 2 —Evaluate studies for external validity: that is, determine whether the results
can be validly generalised, extrapolated or transferred to other settings (for example,
climatic, demographic, pollution sources and levels).
Step 3 —Evaluate corroboration, contradiction and plausibility: that is, consider
whether the Bradford-Hill criteria may be useful here.
Step 4 —Make a choice: that is, select the study or studies that best represent the
endpoint of most relevance for setting an air quality standard.
For this report, we have broadly followed the approach recommended by the NEPC
(National Environment Protection Council 2011). However, in view of the very short
timeframe for the completion of this report, we have adopted the following approach:
9
4. Identification of relevant health endpoints and associated CRFs from individual
Australian studies if systematic reviews and meta-analyses of Australian studies
were not available.
For each of the air pollutants, we have tabulated the available health endpoints and
associated CRFs. We have also provided references of the source reports and original
publications from where the health endpoints and CRFs were derived. Finally, we have
recommended CRFs that could be used for HRAs in the Australian context.
There may be assumptions and uncertainties associated with each of the health endpoints
and CRFs. We therefore recommend that those who wish to use the health endpoints and
associated CRFs also seek out the original reports and publications. CRFs derived from
single studies (not meta-analyses or multi-city studies) or single locations should be used
with caution as they may not be representative of the larger population.
CRFs for the five air pollutants are presented in Tables 1-5.
We have reported on the availability of relevant Australian health outcome data deemed
useful for HRAs and CBAs (presented in Table 6). Relevant morbidity data will need to be
accessed via each state health agency. While the Australian Institute of Health & Welfare
does collate state data for some health outcomes, in most cases they will not be available to
external users in the format required. Mortality data are available from the Australian Bureau
of Statistics. Application to all agencies is necessary and for state agencies the timeframe for
receipt of data may vary from a few weeks to a few months.
REFERENCES
10
AEA Technology Environment (2005). Methodology for the cost-benefit analysis for CAFE: Volume
2: Health impact assessment. Oxon, UK, AEA Technology Environment.
BTRE (2005). Health impacts of transport emissions in Australia: economic costs. Working Paper 63.
Canberra, Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, Department of Transport and
Regional Services, Commonwealth of Australia.
Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollutants (1998). Quantification of the effects of air
pollution on health in the United Kingdom. London, Department of Health, United Kingdom.
Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollutants (2007). The effects of long-term exposure to
ozone. London, Department of Health, UK.
Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollutants (2009). Long-term exposure to air pollution:
effect on mortality. London, Department of Health, UK.
Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollutants (2010). The mortality effects of long-term
exposure to pariculate air pollution in the United Kingdom. London, Department of Health,
UK.
Curtin University of Technology (2009). Review of the health effects of specific air pollutants
Canberra, Report Commissioned by the Australian Government Department of Health and
Ageing.
DEC (2005). Air Pollution Economics: Health Costs of Air Pollution in the Greater Sydney
Metropolitan Region. Sydney, Department of Environment and Conservation, NSW.
DEFRA (2006). An Economic Analysis to Inform the Air Quality Strategy Review Consultation.
London, UK, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affair.
Fisher, G., T. Kjellstrom, et al. (2005). Health and Air Pollution in New Zealand: Christchurch Pilot
Study, Health Research Council, Ministry for the Environment, Ministry of Transport, New
Zealand.
Jalaludin, B., G. Salkeld, et al. (2009). A methodology for cost-benefit analysis of ambient air
pollution health impacts. Canberra, Australian Government Department of the Environment,
Water, Heritage and the Arts, Commonwealth of Australia: 314.
National Environment Protection Council (2011). Methodology for setting air quality standards in
Australia. Part A. Adelaide, Commonwealth of Australia.
National Health and Medical Research Council (2006). Ambient air quality standards setting. An
approach to health-based hazard assessment. Canberra, Australian Government.
11
Seethaler, R. (1999). Health Costs due to Road Traffic-related Air Pollution. Bern, Federal
Department of Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications; Bureau for Transport
Studies, Switzerland.
US EPA (1999). The Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act 1990 to 2010. Washington, DC, United
States Environmental Protection Agency.
US EPA (2004). Final Regulatory Analysis: Control of Emissions from Nonroad Diesel Engines.
Washington, DC, United States Environmental Protection Agency.
US EPA (2006). Regulatory impact analysis. National Ambient Air Quality Standards for particle
pollution, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.
US EPA (2008). Final ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards regulatory impact analysis,
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina: 558.
US EPA (2010). Final Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) for the NO2 National Ambient Air Quality
Standards (NAAQS), Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, North Carolina, USA: 155.
US EPA (2010). Final Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) for the SO2 National Ambient Air Quality
Standards (NAAQS), Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards, U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA: 189.
US EPA (2010). Quantitative Health Risk Assessment for Particulate Matter, Health and
Environmental Impacts Division, US Environmental Protection Agency, NC, USA: 596.
US EPA (2011). The benefits and costs of the Clean Air act from 1990 to 2020, U.S. Environmental
Protection agency, USA.
WHO Europe (2000). Air quality guidelines for Europe: second edition. Copenhagen, WHO Regional
Office for Europe.
WHO Europe (2001). Quantification of the heatlh effects of exposure to air pollution: report of a
WHO working group Bilthoven, Netherlands 20-22 November 2000. Copenhagen, WHO
Regional Office for Europe.
WHO Europe (2003). Health aspects of air pollution with particulate matter, ozone and nitrogen
dioxide: report on a WHO working group. Bonn, Germany, WHO: 98.
WHO Europe (2004). Health aspects of air pollution. Results from the WHO project "Systematic
review of health aspects of air pollution in Europe". Copenhagen, World Health Organization.
WHO Europe (2004). Meta-analysis of time-series studies and panel studies of Particulate Matter
(PM) and Ozone (O3). Report of a WHO task group. Copenhagen, World Health
Organization.
12
Table 1: PM2.5 health endpoints and associated concentration-response functions
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Cardiopulmonary n/a 1.09 (1.03-1.16) n/a 1.14 (1.11-1.17 per n/a Recommended
per 10 µg/m3 10 µg/m3 CRF: 1.14 (1.11-
(Pope, Burnett et al. (Krewski, Jerrett et 1.17 per 10 µg/m3
2002) al. 2009) (Krewski, Jerrett et
(Committee on the (US EPA 2010) al. 2009)
Medical Effects of ICD9: 401-440, 460- (US EPA 2010)
Air Pollutants 2009) 519
Age: 30+ years. Age: 30+ years.
Ischaemic heart n/a n/a n/a 1.24 (1.19-1.28) per n/a Recommended
disease 10 µg/m3 CRF: 1.24 (1.19-
(Krewski, Jerrett et 1.28) per 10 µg/m3
13
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Lung cancer n/a 1.08 (1.01-1.16) n/a 1.14 (1.06-1.123) n/a Recommended
per 10 µg/m3 per 10 µg/m3 CRF: 1.14 (1.06-
(Pope, Burnett et al. (Krewski, Jerrett et 1.123) per 10 µg/m3
2002) al. 2009) (Krewski, Jerrett et
(Committee on the (US EPA 2010) al. 2009)
Medical Effects of ICD9: 162 (US EPA 2010)
Air Pollutants 2009) Age: 30+ years.
Age: 30+ years.
Infant (<12 months n/a n/a n/a 1.07 (0.93-1.24) for n/a Recommended
of age) 10 µg/m3 CRF: 1.07 (0.93-
(Woodruff, Parker et 1.24) for 10 µg/m3
al. 2006) (Woodruff, Parker et
(US EPA 2006) al. 2006)
All ICD9 (US EPA 2006)
Age: <12 months
Life expectancy lost n/a 6 months of life 6.02E-04 YOLL/ n/a n/a Recommended
(years of life lost; expectancy lost in (person/year/µg/m3) CRF: 6.02E-04
YOLL) the UK at current (Leksell and Rabl YOLL/
levels of 2001) (person/year/µg/m3)
anthropogenic PM2.5 (European (Leksell and Rabl
(~9 µg/m3) Commission 2005) 2001)
(Committee on the (European
Medical Effects of Commission 2005)
Air Pollutants 2010)
Morbidity
14
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Incidence of chronic n/a n/a Chronic bronchitis: COPD: Chronic bronchitis: Recommended CRF
obstructive 1.181 (0.98-3.25) 1.81 (0.98-3.25) per 1.34 (0.94-1.99) per for COPD: 1.81
pulmonary disease per 45 µg/m3 10 µg/m3 10 µg/m3 (0.98-3.25) per 10
(COPD) or chronic OR (Abbey, Hwang et (Dockery, µg/m3
bronchitis 1.141 (0.996-1.30) al. 1995) Cunningham et al. (Abbey, Hwang et
per 10 µg/m3 (US EPA 2006) 1996) al. 1995)
(Abbey, Lebowitz et Age: >26 years (WHO Europe 2000) (US EPA 2006)
al. 1995) ?Age Age: >26 years
(European
Commission 2005) Chronic bronchitis:
Adults (27+ years) No CRF
with cough or recommended.
sputum on most
days for at least
three months of the
year for at least two
years.
Incidence of asthma Ever had wheezing: n/a n/a n/a n/a No CRF
No effect. recommended.
Ever had asthma:
No effect. No effect in
(Williams, Marks et Australian 6-cities
al. 2012) study (Williams,
Six cities – Marks et al. 2012).
Adelaide, Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Average hourly.
PM2.5 over lifetime.
Age: mean age10.0
years.
15
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
2,860 children.
Recent symptoms No effect for asthma n/a n/a n/a n/a Recommended CRF
(in last 12 months) exacerbation, only for rhinitis
wheeze, cough or (Williams, Marks et
shortness of breath. al. 2012).
(Bennett, Simpson
et al. 2007) No effect for other
Melbourne symptoms in
N=1,446 Australian 6-cities
Mean age: 37 study (Williams,
years. Marks et al. 2012).
12-month average.
No effect for
wheeze, wheeze
after exercise,
current asthma, use
of bronchodilators,
cough, visit to
doctor/hospital,
rhinitis and itchy
rash in single
pollutant models.
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Average hourly.
PM2.5 over lifetime.
Age: mean age10.0
years.
2,860 children.
17
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Sydney.
Average hourly.
PM2.5 over lifetime.
Age: mean age10.0
years.
2,860 children.
Birth outcomes
18
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
(Hansen, Neller et
al. 2006)
Preterm: <37 weeks
gestation.
Brisbane
1.426 (1.264–1.608)
per 1 µg/m3
(Jalaludin, Mannes
et al. 2007)
Sydney
Preterm: <37 weeks
gestation.
First trimester.
Winter season.
Low birth weight No effect of bsp on n/a n/a n/a n/a No CRF
birth weight or small recommended.
for gestational age
(<10th centile for Inconsistent results
age and gender) from 2 Australian
(Hansen, Neller et studies.
al. 2007)
Brisbane
20
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
cities - Brisbane,
Melbourne, Perth
Sydney.
ICD9: <800; ICD10:
A-R, Z35.5, Z35.8
Cardiovascular 1.0439 (1.0090- 1.4% (0.7-2.2%) per n/a 0.85% (0.46 to 1.00507 (0.98808- Recommended
1.0800) increase 10 µg/m3 1.25%) per 10 µg/m3 1.02236) per 10 CRF: 1.5% (0.7-
per 1 unit bsp (10- (Committee on the (Zanobetti and µg/m3 2.3%) per 3.78
4
.m-1) Medical Effects of Schwartz 2009) (Anderson, Bremner µg/m3 (Environment
(Simpson, Williams Air Pollutants 2006) (US EPA 2010) et al. 2001) Protection and
et al. 2005) 9 studies ICD10: I01-I59 (WHO Europe 2004) Heritage Council
Pooled CRF from 4 ICD9: 390-459 Ages: All ages. 1 study only 2005).
cities (Sydney, All ages. ICD9: 390-459
Perth, Melbourne, Age: All ages.
Brisbane)
ICD9: 390-459
ICD10: I00-I99
(excluding I67.3,
I68.0, I88, I97.8,
I97.9, I98.0), G45
(excluding G45.3),
G46, M30, M31,
R58
Age: All ages.
Lag 1 24-hour bsp.
Lag 01.
Age: All ages.
All year.
No heterogeneity.
Meta-analysis of 4
cities - Brisbane,
Melbourne, Perth
Sydney.
ICD9: 390-459
ICD10: I00-I99
(excluding I67.3,
I68.0, I88, I97.8,
I97.9, I98.0), G45
(excluding G45.3),
G46, M30, M31,
R58
No effect
(Environment
Protection and
Heritage Council
2005)
24-hour average.
Lag 01.
Age: All ages.
All year.
No heterogeneity.
Meta-analysis of 4
cities - Brisbane,
Melbourne, Perth
Sydney.
ICD9: 460-519
ICD10: J00-J99
(excluding J95.4 to
J95.9), R09.1,
R09.8
Hospitalisation
Moderate
heterogeneity for
65+ years.
Meta-analysis of 4
cities - Brisbane,
Melbourne, Perth
Sydney.
ICD9: 390-459;
ICD10: I00–I99
(excluding I67.3,
I68.0, I88, I97.8,
I97.9, I98.0),
G45 (excluding
G45.3), G46, M30,
M31, R58
24
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
15-64 years: No
effect
65+ years: 1.9%
(1.0-2.7%) per 3.78
µg/m3
(Environment
Protection and
Heritage Council
2005)
24-hour average.
Lag 01.
Moderate
heterogeneity for
65+ years.
Meta-analysis of 4
cities - Brisbane,
Melbourne, Perth
Sydney.
lCD9: 390-429;
ICDI0: I00-I52,
I97.0, I97.1, I98.1
Melbourne, Perth
Sydney.
ICD9: 428; ICD10:
I50
Respiratory 1.0401 (1.0045- n/a n/a No effect. 0-14 years: No Recommend CRF:
1.0770) increase (Bell, Ebisu et al. effect. CRFs from
per 1 unit bsp (10- 2008) 15-64 years: Australian 4-cities
4
.m-1) (US EPA 2010) No effect. meta-analysis
(Simpson, Williams ICD9: 490-492, 463- 65+ years: (Environment
et al. 2005) 466, 480-487 No effect. Protection and
Pooled CRF from 4 Age: 65-99 years. (Anderson, Bremner Heritage Council
cities - Sydney, et al. 2001) 2005).
Perth, Melbourne, 2.07% (1.2-2.95%) (WHO Europe 2004)
Brisbane. per 10 µg/m3 1 study only
ICD9: 460-519; (Zanobetti and ICD9: 460-519.
ICD10: J00-J99 Schwartz 2009) Age: All ages.
(excluding J95.4 to (Abt Associates Inc
J95.9), R09.1, 2011)
R09.8 ICD9: 460-519
Age: 65+ years. Age: 65-99 years.
28
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
29
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Asthma 1.0893 (1.0240- n/a n/a 1.04 (1.01-1.06) per n/a Recommend CRF:
1.1587) increase 11.8 µg/m3 CRFs from
per 1 unit bsp (10- (Sheppard 2003) Australian 4-cities
4
.m-1) (Abt Associates Inc meta-analysis
(Simpson, Williams 2011) (Environment
et al. 2005) Age: 0-64 years Protection and
Pooled CRF from 4 ICD9 493 Heritage Council
cities (Sydney, 2005).
Perth, Melbourne,
Brisbane)
ICD9: 493; ICD10:
J45, J46, J44.8
Age: 15-64 years.
Lag 3 24-hour bsp.
0 year: not
calculated due to
uncertain diagnosis.
1-4 years: No effect.
5-14 years: No
effect.
15-64 years: 2.2%
(0.7-3.6%) per 3.78
µg/m3.
65+ years: No
effect.
(Environment
Protection and
Heritage Council
2005)
24-hour average.
Lag 01.
Moderate
heterogeneity for
30
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
15-64 years.
Meta-analysis of 4
cities - Brisbane,
Melbourne, Perth
Sydney.
ICD9: 493; ICD10:
J45, J46, J44.8
Chronic obstructive 15-64 years: No n/a n/a n/a n/a Recommend CRF:
pulmonary disease effect CRF for 65+ years
(COPD) 65+ years: 1.6% from Australian 4-
(0.6-2.7%) per 3.78 cities meta-analysis
µg/m3 (Environment
(Environment Protection and
Protection and Heritage Council
Heritage Council 2005).
2005)
24-hour average.
Lag 01.
Moderate
heterogeneity for
15-64 years.
Meta-analysis of 4
cities - Brisbane,
Melbourne, Perth
Sydney.
lCD9: 490-492, 494-
496; ICDI0: J40-
J44, J47, J67
Pneumonia and 0 years: 1.0% (0.0- n/a n/a n/a n/a Recommend CRF:
acute bronchitis 3.4%) per 3.78 CRFs from
µg/m3 Australian 4-cities
1-4 years: 2.4% meta-analysis
31
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Non-fatal heart n/a n/a n/a 1.62 (1.13-2.34) per n/a Recommended
attacks 20 µg/m3 CRF: 1.62 (1.13-
(24-hr PM) (Peters, Dockery et 2.34) per 20 µg/m3
al. 2001) (Peters, Dockery et
(US EPA 2006) al. 2001)
Age: 18+ years
ICD9: 410
Lung function
34
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Age: All
(n=53)
History of allergy to
pollen or fungi on
skin prick testing
No effect.
(Williams, Marks et
al. 2012)
Six cities –
Adelaide, Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Age: mean age 10.0
years.
270 children with
current asthma.
Minor morbidity
35
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
responsiveness
Minor restricted n/a n/a 0.74% (0.60-0.88%) 1.0769 (1.0622- n/a Recommended
activity days per 1 μg/m3 1.0918) per 10 CRF: 1.0769
(MRAD)3 (Ostro and μg/m3 (1.0622-1.0918) per
Rothschild 1989) (Ostro and 10 μg/m3
(European Rothschild 1989) (Ostro and
Commission 2005) (US EPA 2006) Rothschild 1989)
Age: 18-64 years. Age: 18-64 years. (US EPA 2006)
Work lost days n/a n/a 0.46% (0.39-0.53%) 1.0471 (1.0397- n/a Recommended
(WLD)2 per 1 μg/m3 1.0545) per 10 CRF: 1.0471
(Ostro 1987) μg/m3 (1.0397-1.0545) per
(European (Ostro 1987) 10 μg/m3
Commission 2005) (US EPA 2006) (Ostro 1987)
CAFE CBA 2005 Age: 18-64 years. (US EPA 2006)
Age: 15-64 years.
Acute bronchitis n/a n/a n/a 1.5 (0.91-2.47) per n/a Recommended
(incidence, 8-12 14.9 µg/m3 CRF: 1.5 (0.91-
years) (Dockery, 2.47) per 14.9 µg/m3
Cunningham et al. (Dockery,
36
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Lower respiratory n/a n/a n/a 1.33 (1.11-1.58) per n/a Recommended
symptoms 15 µg/m3 CRF: 1.33 (1.11-
(Schwartz and Neas 1.58) per 15 µg/m3
2000) (Schwartz and Neas
(US EPA 2006) 2000)
Age: 7-14 years. (US EPA 2006)
37
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Cough 1.006 (1.000-1.012) n/a n/a Only for African- n/a No CRF
per ?1µg/m3 American children. recommended.
(Rodriguez, Tonkin (Ostro, Lipsett et al.
et al. 2007) 2001) No effect in
Age: 0-5 years. (Abt Associates Inc Australian 6-cities
Perth. 2011) study (Williams,
1-hour maximum. Marks et al. 2012).
No effect
(Williams, Marks et
al. 2012)
Six cities –
Adelaide, Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Age: mean 10.0
years.
270 children with
current asthma.
Shortness of breath No effect. n/a n/a Only for African- n/a No CRF
(Williams, Marks et American children. recommended.
al. 2012) (Ostro, Lipsett et al.
Six cities – 2001) No effect in
Adelaide, Brisbane, (Abt Associates Inc Australian 6-cities
Canberra, 2011) study (Williams,
Melbourne, Perth, Marks et al. 2012).
Sydney.
Age: mean 10.0
years.
270 children with
current asthma.
38
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Upper respiratory Runny/blocked n/a n/a Only for African- n/a No CRF
symptoms nose: No effect. American children. recommended.
(Rodriguez, Tonkin (Ostro, Lipsett et al.
et al. 2007) 2001) Only Australian
Age: 0-5 years. (Abt Associates Inc study did not show
Perth. 2011) any adverse effects.
1-hour maximum.
Any night
symptoms: No
effect on any night
symptoms - cough,
wheeze, shortness
39
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
of breath.
(Williams, Marks et
al. 2012)
Six cities –
Adelaide, Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Age: mean 10.0
years.
270 children with
current asthma.
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Table 2: PM10 health endpoints and concentration-response functions
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Infant all cause (<12 n/a n/a 4% (2-7%) per 10 n/a n/a Recommended
months age) µg/m3 CRF: 4% (2-7%) per
(Woodruff, Grillo et 10 µg/m3
al. 1997) (Woodruff, Grillo et
(European al. 1997).
Commission 2005)
ICD9: All
53
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Life expectancy n/a 2-6 months per 2.69E-04 YOLL / n/a n/a Recommended
(Years of life lost; death brought (person/yr/µg/m3) CRF: 2.69E-04
YOLL) forward. (European YOLL /
(DEFRA 2006) Commission 2005) (person/yr/µg/m3)
Applies CRF from (European
Pope 1995 to whole Commission 2005).
population.
Morbidity
Incidence of chronic n/a n/a Chronic bronchitis: n/a Chronic bronchitis: No CRF
obstructive 1.15 (0.99-1.33) per 1.29 (0.96-1.83) per recommended for
pulmonary disease 20 µg/m3 10 µg/m3 chronic bronchitis.
(COPD) or chronic (Abbey, Hwang et (Dockery,
bronchitis al. 1995) Cunningham et al. Both the reported
(European 1996) CRFs are
Commission 2005) (WHO Europe 2000) statistically non-
(AEA Technology ?Age significant. May be
Environment 2005) used in a sensitivity
Adults (27+ years) analysis.
with cough or
sputum on most
days for at least
three months of the
year for at least two
years.
Incidence of asthma Ever had wheezing: n/a n/a n/a n/a No CRF
No effect recommended.
Ever had asthma:
54
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
No effect No effect in
(Williams, Marks et Australian 6-cities
al. 2012) study (Williams,
Six cities – Marks et al. 2012).
Adelaide, Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Average hourly
PM10 over lifetime.
Age: mean age10.0
years.
2,860 children.
Recent symptoms Nigh cough: 1.34 n/a n/a n/a n/a No CRF
(in last 12 months) (1.19-1.53) per 10 recommended.
µg/m3
Chest colds: 1.43 No effect in
(1.12-1.82) per 10 Australian 6-cities
µg/m3 study (Williams,
(Lewis, Hensley et Marks et al. 2012).
al. 1998)
Children in school May use the CRFs
years 3-5. from the study by
Illawarra/Hunter. Lewis et al (Lewis,
Annual mean PM10. Hensley et al. 1998)
in a sensitivity
No effect or analysis.
protective effects for
wheeze, wheeze
after exercise,
current asthma, use
of bronchodilators,
cough, visit to
55
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
doctor/hospital,
rhinitis and itchy
rash in various
single pollutant and
2-pollutant models.
(Williams, Marks et
al. 2012)
Six cities –
Adelaide, Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Average hourly
PM10 over lifetime.
Age: mean age10.0
years.
2,860 children.
Airway inflammation 1.04 (1.01-1.06) per n/a n/a n/a n/a Recommended
1 µg/m3 in single CRF: 1.04 (1.01-
pollutant model. 1.06) per 1 µg/m3
Estimates are (Williams, Marks et
similar in 2-pollutant al. 2012).
models with PM2.5,
NO2, SO2 and CO
(Williams, Marks et
al. 2012)
Six cities –
Adelaide, Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Average hourly
PM10 over lifetime.
Age: mean age10.0
years.
2,860 children.
57
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Birth outcomes
Birth defects Mixed results from n/a n/a n/a n/a No CRF
only Australian recommended.
study
(Hansen, Barnett et Only 1 Australian
al. 2009) study.
Brisbane
Prematurity 1.462 (1.267-1.688) n/a n/a n/a n/a No CRF
per 1 µg/m3 recommended.
Autumn
First trimester Few Australian
studies.
1.343 (1.190-1.516)
per 1 µg/m3
Winter
First Trimester
(Jalaludin, Mannes
et al. 2007)
Preterm: <37 weeks
gestation.
Sydney
58
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Low birth weight 1.01 (1.00-1.04) per n/a n/a n/a n/a No CRF
1 µg/m3 for small for recommended.
gestational age (<2
standard deviations Few Australian
for age and gender). studies.
Second trimester
-2.05 (-3.36 to
-0.74) grams per 1
µg/m3 for small for
gestational age (<2
standard deviations
for age and gender).
Second trimester
(Mannes, Jalaludin
et al. 2005)
Sydney
No effect on birth
weight or small for
gestational age
(<10thcentile for age
and gender).
(Hansen, Neller et
al. 2007)
Brisbane
Non-trauma All ages: No effect 0.074% (0.062- 1.0105 (1.0025- n/a 1.0074 (1.0062- No CRF
(Simpson, Williams 0.086%) per 1 1.0186) per 10 1.0086) per 10 recommended.
59
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Cardiovascular 1.4 (0.0-2.9%) per 0.9% (0.7-1.2%) per n/a n/a 1.009 (1.005-1.013) Recommended
10 µg/m3 10 µg/m3 per 10 µg/m3 CRF: 1.8% (0.6-
(Morgan, (Committee on the (WHO Europe 2004) 3.0%) per 7.53
Sheppeard et al. Medical Effects of 17 studies µg/m3 (Environment
2010) Air Pollutants 2006) ICD9: 390-459 Protection and
Sydney CRF not intended Ages: All ages. Heritage Council
Age: All for health risk 2005).
24-hour average assessment
ICD9: 390-459; purposes.
ICD10: I00-I99 40 studies
(excluding I67.3, ICD9: 390-459
I68.0, I88, I97.8, Age: All ages.
I97.9, I98.0), G45
(excluding G45.3),
G46, M30, M31,
R58
ICD10: I00-I99
(excluding I67.3,
I68.0, I88, I97.8,
I97.9, I98.0), G45
(excluding G45.3),
G46, M30, M31,
R58
Sydney.
ICD9: 460-519;
ICD10: J00-J99
(excluding J95.4 to
J95.9), R09.1,
R09.8
Hospitalisation
Cardiovascular 15-64 years: No 0.8 per 10 µg/m3 (no 0.6% (0.3-0.9%) per n/a n/a No CRF
effect 95%CI provided) 10 µg/m3 recommended.
65+ years: No effect (DEFRA 2006) (AEA Technology
(Environment (based on COMEAP Environment 2005) No effect in
Protection and 1998) ICD9: 390-429 Australian 4-cities
Heritage Council Age: All ages. meta-analysis
2005) No effect (Environment
24-hour average (Committee on the Protection and
Lag 01 Medical Effects of Heritage Council
Low heterogeneity Air Pollutants 2006) 2005).
Meta-analysis of 4 CRF not intended
cities - Brisbane, for health risk CRF from the study
Melbourne, Perth assessment by Morgan et al
Sydney. purposes. (Morgan,
ICD9: 390-459; 6 studies Sheppeard et al.
ICD10: I00–I99 ICD9: 390-459 2010) may be used
(excluding I67.3, Age: All ages. in a sensitivity
I68.0, I88, I97.8, analysis.
I97.9, I98.0),
G45 (excluding
G45.3), G46, M30,
M31, R58
1.22% (0.41 to
2.03%) per 10
63
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
µg/m3
(Morgan,
Sheppeard et al.
2010)
Sydney
Age: All ages.
24-hour average
ICD9: 390-459;
ICD10: I00-I99
(excluding I67.3,
I68.0, I88, I97.8,
I97.9, I98.0), G45
(excluding
G45.3), G46, M30,
M31, R58
Sydney.
ICD9: 428; ICD10:
I50
2005) (Environment
24-hour average Protection and
Lag 01 Heritage Council
Low heterogeneity 2005).
Meta-analysis of 4
cities - Brisbane,
Melbourne, Perth
Sydney.
lCD9: 410; ICDI0:
I21, I22
Respiratory 0 year: 2.3% (0.2- 0.080% (0.048- 1.14% (0.62-1.67%) n/a 1.0080 (1.0048- Recommended
4.3%) increase per 0.112%) per 1µg/m3 per 10µg/m3 1.0112) per 10 CRF:
7.53 µg/m3 (Committee on the (AEA Technology µg/m3 CRFs from the
1-4 years: 2.3% Medical Effects of Environment 2005) (WHO Europe 2000) Australian 4-cities
(0.9-3.8%) increase Air Pollutants 1998) Age: All ages. ?ICD meta-analysis
per 7.53 µg/m3 CRF is a WHO ICD9: 460-519 ?Age (Environment
5-14 years: 2.3% summary finding Protection and
(0.2-4.4%) increase based on 6 cities 0-14 years: 1.010 Heritage Council
per 7.53 µg/m3 All respiratory (0.998-1.021) per 10 2005).
15-64 years: No causes µg/m3
effect Age: All ages. 3 studies May use CRF from
65+ years: No effect 14-64years: 1.008 the study by Morgan
(Environment (1.001-1.015) per 10 et al (Morgan,
Protection and µg/m3 Sheppeard et al.
Heritage Council 3 studies 2010) in a sensitivity
2005) 65+ years: 1.007 analysis. This CRF
24-hour average. (1.002-1.013) per 10 is for all ages but
Lag 01. µg/m3 from one location
Low heterogeneity. 8 studies only.
Meta-analysis of 4 (WHO Europe 2004)
cities - Brisbane, ICD9: 460-519
Melbourne, Perth Age: All ages.
Sydney.
68
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
ICD9: 460-519;
ICD10: J00-J99
(excluding J95.4 to
J95.9),
R09.1, R09.8
1.04% (0.02-
2.07%) per 10
µg/m3
(Morgan,
Sheppeard et al.
2010)
Sydney
Age: All ages.
24-hour average.
ICD9: 460-519;
ICD10: J00-J99
(excluding J95.4 to
J95.9), R09.1,
R09.8
69
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
1-14 years: No
effect
15-64 years: No
effect
(Morgan,
Sheppeard et al.
2010)
Sydney.
ICD9: 493; ICD10:
70
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Low heterogeneity
for 65+4 years
Meta-analysis of 4
cities - Brisbane,
Melbourne, Perth
Sydney.
ICD9: 466, 480-486;
ICD10: J12-J17,
J18.0, J18.1, Jl8.8,
JI8.9, J20, J21
Respiratory disease n/a n/a COPD: 5.7% (4.56- n/a n/a No CRF
6.84%) per 25 recommended.
µg/m3
(Sunyer, Saez et al. The CRF from
1993) Sunyer et al
(European (Sunyer, Saez et al.
Commission 1995) 1993) may be used
Age: All ages. in a sensitivity
analysis.
Cardiovascular n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a No CRF
disease recommended.
Lung function
Change in forced No effect in single n/a n/a n/a -1.2% (-2.3 to - Recommended
expiratory volume in pollutant models, 0.1%) per 10 µg/m3 CRF: -0.0043
1 second (FEV1; but significant (Raizenne, Neas et (-0.0078 to -0.0008)
litres) effects in 2-pollutant al. 1996) per 1 µg/m3
models with 1-hour (WHO Europe 2000) (Williams, Marks et
SO2 and 24-hour Children al. 2012).
SO2 ?Age
73
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
µg/m3 (Ackermann-
24-hour average Liebrich,
Lag 2 Leuenberger et al.
With 24-hour SO2: 1997)
-0.0043 (-0.0078 to (WHO Europe 2000)
-0.0008) per 1 Adults
µg/m3 ?Age
24-hour average
Lag 2
(Williams, Marks et
al. 2012)
Six cities –
Adelaide, Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Age: mean age 10.0
years.
270 children with
current asthma.
al. 2000)
Sydney
32 children (mean
age about 9.2
years) with a history
of wheezing in
previous 12 months.
-0.0036 (-0.0067 to
-0.0005) per 1
µg/m3
(Rutherford,
Simpson et al.
2000)
Brisbane and
Ipswich
Mixed-models
4-day lag
Age: All ages.
53 people with
history of allergy to
pollen or fungi on
skin prick testing.
No effect in single
pollutant models,
but significant
effects in 2-pollutant
models with 1-hour
ozone, 1-hour SO2
and 24-hour SO2
With 1-hour ozone:
-0.3674 (-0.7291 to
-0.0057)
75
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
24-hour average
Lag 2
With 1-hour SO2:
-0.7972 (-1.33148 to
-0.2796) per 1
µg/m3
24-hour average
Lag 2
With 24-hour SO2:
-0.8187 (-1.3325 to
-0.3048) per 1
µg/m3
24-hour average
Lag 2
(Williams, Marks et
al. 2012)
Six cities –
Adelaide, Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney
Age: mean age 10.0
years
270 children with
current asthma
Minor morbidity
Lower respiratory No effect on 0-15 years: 0.330% 5-14 years: 1.004 n/a 1.0324 (1.0185- Recommended
symptoms wheezing. (0.134-0.526%) per (1.002-1.006) per 1.0464) per 10 CRFs:
(Jalaludin, O'Toole 1 µg/m3 10 µg/m3 µg/m3 5-14 years: 1.004
et al. 2004) 15+ years: No (Ward and Ayres (WHO Europe 2000) (1.002-1.006) per
148 children (mean effect. 2004) ?Age 10 µg/m3 (Ward and
age about 9.6 (Roemer, Hoek et (European Ayres 2004) from a
years) with a history al. 1993) Commission 2005) meta-analysis.
of wheezing in (Dusseldorp, Kruize (AEA Technology
previous 12 months. et al. 1995) Environment 2005) 20+ years: 1.017
Sydney. (Committee on the CRF from meta- (1.002-1.032) per
77
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Age: mean 10.0
years.
270 children with
current asthma.
Cough No effect. 0-15 years: 0.508% 5-14 years: 1.004 8% (0-16%) per 10 1.0356 (1.0197- Recommended
(Jalaludin, O'Toole (0.226-0.790%) per (1.002-1.006) per μg/m3 1.0518) per 10 CRF: Use CRF from
et al. 2004) 1 µg/m3 10 µg/m3 (Vedal, Petkau et al. µg/m3 Australian 6-cities
148 children (mean 15+ years: No effect (Ward and Ayres 1998) (WHO Europe 2000) study (Williams,
age about 9.6 (Dockery and Pope 2004) (US EPA 2006) ?Age Marks et al. 2012).
years) with a history 1994) (European (Abt Associates Inc.
of wheezing in (Dusseldorp, Kruize Commission 2005) 2005) 5-15 years: 0.999
previous 12 months. et al. 1995) (AEA Technology Asthmatic children. (0.987-1.011) per 10 May use CRFs from
Sydney. (Committee on the Environment 2005) Age: 6-13 years. µg/m3 Ward et al (Ward
Medical Effects of All children 34 studies. and Ayres 2004) in
Day cough: 1.0229 Air Pollutants 1998) Symptomatic a sensitivity
(1.0006-1.0456) per CRFs for those with 20+ years: 1.043 children. analysis. CRFs from
1 μg/m3 in 2- asthma. (1.005-1.084) per a meta-analysis.
pollutant model with NOT included in 10 µg/m3 16-70 years: 1.043
8-hour CO impact assessment (Ward and Ayres (1.005-1.084) per 10
24-hour average in the UK because 2004) µg/m3
Lag 1 of doubts about the (European 3 studies.
Night cough: 1.0277 transferability of the Commission 2005) Symptomatic adults.
(1.0003-1.0559) per data and lack of UK (AEA Technology (WHO Europe 2004)
1 μg/m3 in 2- studies. Environment 2005)
pollutant model with CRF from meta-
24-hour SO2 analysis.
24-hour average Symptomatic adults
Lag 2 only: cough,
(Williams, Marks et nocturnal cough,
al. 2012) cough+phlegm
80
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Six cities –
Adelaide, Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Age: mean 10.0
years.
270 children with
current asthma.
Shortness of breath Day SOB: No effect n/a n/a n/a n/a Recommended
Night SOB: 1.0417 CRF: 1.0417
(1.0031-1.0819) per (1.0031-1.0819) per
1 μg/m3 in 2- 1 μg/m3 (Williams,
pollutant model with Marks et al. 2012).
CO 8-hour average
24-hour average
Lag 2
(Williams, Marks et
al. 2012)
Six cities –
Adelaide, Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Age: mean 10.0
years.
270 children with
current asthma.
Bronchodilator use No effect. 0-15 years: 0.230% 5-14 years : No n/a 1.0305 (1.0201- No CRF
(people with (Jalaludin, O'Toole (0.073-0.3876%) effect 1.0410) per 10 recommended.
asthma) et al. 2004) per 1µg/m3 20+ years: No effect µg/m3
148 children (mean (WHO Europe (WHO Europe 2000) No effect in
81
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
age about 9.6 15+ years: 0.180% 2004) ?Age Australian 6-cities
years) with a history (0.004-0.357%) per (European study (Williams,
of wheezing in 1µg/m3 Commission 2005) 5-15 years: No Marks et al. 2012).
previous 12 months. (Roemer, Hoek et (AEA Technology effect
Sydney. al. 1993) Environment 2005) 31 studies Inconsistent CRFs
(Dusseldorp, Kruize People with asthma. Symptomatic reported. There is
No effect et al. 1995) children. generally a lack of
(Williams, Marks et (Committee on the 16-70 years: No an effect.
al. 2012) Medical Effects of effect
Six cities – Air Pollutants 1998) 3 studies
Adelaide, Brisbane, CRFs for those with Symptomatic adults.
Canberra, asthma. (WHO Europe 2004)
Melbourne, Perth, NOT included in
Sydney impact assessment
Age: mean 10.0 in the UK because
years of doubts about the
270 children with transferability of the
current asthma data and lack of UK
studies.
82
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Any night
symptoms: 1.0163
(1.0029-1.0298) per
1 μg/m3 (any
cough, wheeze,
shortness of breath)
24-hour average
Lag 2
(Williams, Marks et
al. 2012)
Six cities –
83
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Adelaide, Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Age: mean 10.0
years.
270 children with
current asthma.
General practitioner 1.11 (1.04-1.19) per n/a 0-14 years: 2.5% n/a n/a No recommended
consultation for 12 µg/m3 (0.0-5.2%) per 10 CRF.
asthma (Jalaludin, O'Toole µg/m3
et al. 2004) 15-64 years: 3.1% CRFs from Jalaludin
125 children (mean (1.2-5.0%) per 10 et al (Jalaludin,
age about 9.6 µg/m3 O'Toole et al. 2004)
years) with a history 65+ years: 6.3% and Hajat et al
of wheezing in (2.1-11.2%) per 10 (Hajat, Haines et al.
previous 12 months. µg/m3 1999) may be used
Sydney. (Hajat, Haines et al. in may be used in
1999) sensitivity analyses.
(European
Commission 2005)
(AEA Technology
Environment 2005)
CRFs for warm
season only.
CRFs only used for
sensitivity analysis
General practitioner n/a n/a 0-14 years: No n/a n/a No recommended
consultation for effect CRF.
upper respiratory 15-64 years: 1.8%
disease (0.9-2.8%) per 10 CRFs from Hajat et
µg/m3 al (Hajat, Anderson
65+ years: 3.3% et al. 2002) may be
84
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
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Schwartz, J., D. Slater, et al. (1993). "Particulate air pollution and hospital emergency room visits for asthma in Seattle." American Review of Respiratory Disease 147(4):
826-831.
Simpson, R., G. Williams, et al. (2005). "The short-term effects of air pollution on daily mortality in four Australian cities." Australian & New Zealand Journal of Public
Health 29(3): 205-212.
Simpson, R., G. Williams, et al. (2005). "The short-term effects of air pollution on hospital admissions in four Australian cities " Australian & New Zealand Journal of Public
Health 29(3): 213-221.
Sunyer, J., M. Saez, et al. (1993). "Air pollution and emergency room admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a 5-year study." American Journal of
Epidemiology 137(7): 701-705.
US EPA (2006). Regulatory impact analysis. National Ambient Air Quality Standards for particle pollution, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.
Vedal, S., J. Petkau, et al. (1998). "Acute effects of ambient inhalable particles in asthmatic and nonasthmatic children." American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care
Medicine 157(4): 1034-1043.
Ward, D. J. and J. G. Ayres (2004). "Particulate air pollution and panel studies in children: a systematic review." Occupational & Environmental Medicine 61(4): e13.
WHO Europe (2000). Air quality guidelines for Europe: second edition. Copenhagen, WHO Regional Office for Europe.
WHO Europe (2004). Meta-analysis of time-series studies and panel studies of Particulate Matter (PM) and Ozone (O3). Report of a WHO task group. Copenhagen, World
Health Organization.
Williams, G., G. Marks, et al. (2012). Australian Child Health and Air Pollution Study (ACHAPS). Final report. Environment Protection and Heritage Council (in press).
Woodruff, T. J., J. Grillo, et al. (1997). "The relationship between selected causes of postneonatal infant mortality and particulate air pollution in the United States."
Environmental Health Perspectives 105(6): 608-612.
Yu, O., L. Sheppard, et al. (2000). "Effects of ambient air pollution on symptoms of asthma in Seattle-area children enrolled in the CAMP study." Environmental Health
Perspectives 108(12): 1209-1214.
87
Table 3: O3 health endpoints and associated concentration-response functions
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
88
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Morbidity
Incidence of asthma Ever had wheezing: n/a n/a 2.8% (0.1-5.6%) per n/a No CRF
Protective effect in 1 ppb recommended.
single and 2- (McDonnell, Abbey
pollutant models et al. 1999) No effect in
with PM, NO2, SO2 (US EPA 1999) Australian 6-cities
and CO. Age: Non-asthmatic study (Williams,
males 27+ years. Marks et al. 2012).
89
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Sydney.
Average hourly O3
over lifetime.
Age: mean age10.0
years.
2,860 children.
91
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
over lifetime.
Age: mean age10.0
years.
2,860 children.
Birth outcomes
Birth defects Pulmonary artery & n/a n/a n/a n/a No CRF
valves: 2.96% recommended.
(1.34- 7.52%) per 5
ppb Only 1 Australian
(Hansen, Barnett et study.
al. 2009)
Brisbane.
Birth addresses
92
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
<6km of air
monitoring station.
1.604 (1.268-2.030)
per 1 ppb
1st month gestation
for women living
<5km of air quality
monitor.
No effect for all
Sydney.
Preterm: <37
weeks.
1.014 (1.005-1.022)
per 1 ppb
Sydney wide
Preterm: <37 weeks
gestation
1st trimester
exposure.
93
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
0.807 (0.668-0.976)
per 1 ppb
for women living <5
km of air quality
monitor.
Preterm: <37 weeks
gestation.
1st trimester
exposure.
Sydney.
(Jalaludin, Mannes
et al. 2007)
Non-trauma 1.0004 (0.9999- 0.059% per 1 µg/m3 0.3% (0.1-0.43%) 0.5-1% increase per 0.3% (0.1-0.43%) Recommended
1.0010) per 1 ppb (Sunyer, per 10 µg/m3 30 ppb increase per 10 CRF: 1.4% (0.3-
4-hour maximum Castellsague et al. (Anderson, (US EPA 2006) µg/m3 2.4%) per 9.83 ppb
Lag 0 1996) Atkinson et al. 2004) 8-hour maximum (Anderson, Atkinson (Environment
(European (European average. et al. 2004) (AEA Protection and
1.0004 (0.9999- Commission 2005) Commission 2005) Technology Heritage Council
1.0008) per 1 ppb Age: All ages. WHO meta- n/a Environment 2005) 2005).
1-hour maximum analysis. (Abt Associates Inc WHO meta-
Lag 0 1.027 (1.013-1.039) Daily maximum 8- 2011) analysis.
(Simpson, Williams per 50 µg/m3 hour average O3. Meta-analysis of 6 Daily maximum 8-
et al. 2005) (Committee on the Assuming linearity studies. hour average.
Pooled CRF from 4 Medical Effects of without threshold. All ages.
cities - Sydney, Air Pollutants 1998)
Perth, Melbourne, 8-hour average. 0.3% (0.1-0.4%) 1.003 (1.001-1.004)
95
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Cardiovascular 1.0008 (0.9999- 0.4% (0.3-0.5%) n/a n/a 1.004 (1.003, 1.005) Recommended
1.0016) per 1 ppb change per 10 per 10 µg/m3 CRF: 2.1% (1.1-
(4-hour maximum) µg/m3 3.1%) per 9.83 ppb
(lag0) (Committee on the Estimate revised for (Environment
Medical Effects of possible publication Protection and
1.0006 (0.9999- Air Pollutants 2006) bias 1.004 (1.003- Heritage Council
1.0013) per 1 ppb 8-hour average 1.005). 2005).
1-hour maximum No evidence of (Anderson, Atkinson
Lag 0 publication bias. et al. 2004) Note that CRFs
Pooled CRF from 4 CRF not intended 8-hour average. from Simpson et al
96
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Lag 01
Age: All ages.
All year.
No heterogeneity.
Meta-analysis of 4
cities - Brisbane,
Melbourne, Perth
Sydney.
ICD9: 460-519;
ICD10: J00-J99
(excluding J95.4 to
J95.9), R09.1,
R09.8
Hospitalisation
(excluding G45.3),
G46, M30, M31,
R58
Low heterogeneity.
lCD9: 390-429;
ICDI0: I00-I52,
I97.0, I97.1, I98.1
2005) 2005).
1-hour maximum.
Lag 01.
Meta-analysis of 4
cities - Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth
Sydney.
Low heterogeneity.
ICD9: 430-438
ICD10: I60-I66, I67
(excluding I67.0,
I67.3), I68
(excluding I68.0),
I69, G45 (excluding
G45.3), G46
Ischaemic heart 15-64 years: No -0.1% (-0.7 to 0.4%) n/a n/a n/a No CRF
disease effect. per 10 µg/m3 recommended.
65+years: No effect. (Committee on the
(Environment Medical Effects of No effect in the
Protection and Air Pollutants 2006) EPHC study
Heritage Council 8-hour average (Environment
2005) No evidence of Protection and
Meta-analysis of 4 publication bias. Heritage Council
cities - Brisbane, CRF not intended 2005), Simpson
Melbourne, Perth, for health risk study (Simpson,
Sydney assessment Williams et al. 2005)
Low heterogeneity purposes. and in COMEAP
ICD9: 410-413 study (Committee
ICD10: 120-122, on the Medical
124, 125.2 Effects of Air
Pollutants 2006).
No effect.
102
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
(Simpson, Williams
et al. 2005)
Pooled estimate
from 4 cities -
Sydney, Brisbane,
Melbourne, Perth.
All ages and 65+
years.
Respiratory 65+ years: No All ages: 3.5% per Various age groups n/a n/a No CRF
effect. 50 µg/m3 analysed: effect Pooled analysis of a All ages: 5% recommended.
(Simpson, Williams 15-64 years: 1.031 close to significant number of studies – increase per 25
et al. 2005) (1.013-1.049) per 50 for 65+ years only. unable to locate µg/m3 Results are
1-hour maximum. µg/m3 CRF. (8-hour average) inconsistent.
lCD9: 460-519 (Committee on the 65+ years: No (Abt Associates Inc and 30 µg/m3
ICD10: J00-J99 Medical Effects of effect. 2011) 1-hour average The Brisbane CRFs
(excluding J95.4- Air Pollutants 1998) (Anderson, Atkinson (WHO Europe (Petroeschevsky,
J95.9), R09.1, Whole population. et al. 2004). 2000) Simpson et al.
R09.8. 8-hour average. (European 2001) and the 4-
Pooled analysis Meta-analysis of 4 Commission 2005) 0-14 years: cities meta-analysis
from 4 cities - European cities. 8-hour average. Insufficient numbers (Environment
Brisbane, Sydney, ICD9: 460-519 Meta-analysis of 5 for meta-analysis Protection and
Melbourne, Perth. European cities. 15-64 years: 1.001 Heritage Council
(0.991-1.012) per 2005) may be used
All ages: 1.023 10 µg/m3 in a sensitivity
(1.003-1.043) per 1 65+ years: 1.005 analysis.
pphm (0.998-1.012) per
0-4 years: 10 µg/m3
Protective effect. (Anderson, Atkinson
1-hour maximum et al. 2004)
Lag 0 8-hour average.
104
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
5-14 years: No
effect.
1-hour maximum
Lag 0
15-64 years: 1.045
(1.013-1.079) per 1
pphm
8-hour average
Lag 2
65+ years: 1.054
(1.016-1.094) per 1
pphm
8-hour average
Lag 3
(Petroeschevsky,
Simpson et al.
2001)
Brisbane
ICD9: 460-519
0 year: No effect.
1-4 years: 1.9%
(0.5-3.4%) per 9.83
ppb
1-hour maximum.
105
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Lag 01.
All year.
No heterogeneity.
5-14 years: No
effect.
15-64 years: No
effect.
65+ years: No
effect.
(Environment
Protection and
Heritage Council
2005)
Meta-analysis of 4
cities - Brisbane,
Melbourne, Perth
Sydney.
ICD9: 460-519
ICD10: J00-J99
(excluding J95.4 to
J95.9), R09.1,
R09.8
effect. (Environment
(Morgan, Corbett et Protection and
al. 1998) Heritage Council
Sydney. 2005) may be used
in a sensitivity
All ages: 1.090 analysis.
(1.042-1.141) per 1
pphm
Lag 5 average
0-14 years: 1.064
(1.015-1.115) per 1
pphm
Lag 1
15-64 years 1.084
(1.037-1.133)
per 1 pphm
Lag 2
(Petroeschevsky,
Simpson et al.
2001)
8-hour average.
Brisbane.
No effect.
(Simpson, Williams
et al. 2005)
Age: 15-64 years
lCD9: 493,
ICD10: J45, J46,
J44.8
Pooled analysis
from 4 cities -
Brisbane, Sydney,
Melbourne, Perth.
107
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Asthma+COPD:
108
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
15-64 years: No
effect
65+ years: No effect
(Environment
Protection and
Heritage Council
2005)
1-hour maximum
Lag 01
Moderate to high
heterogeneity
Meta-analysis of 4
cities - Brisbane,
Melbourne, Perth
Sydney
109
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Pneumonia and All ages: No effect n/a n/a n/a n/a No CRF
acute bronchitis <15 years: No effect recommended.
65+ years: No effect
(Hinwood, De Klerk No effect shown in
et al. 2006) Australian studies.
Perth
No effect.
(Simpson, Williams
et al. 2005)
65+ years.
ICD9: 466, 480-486
ICD10: J12-J17,
J18.0, J18.1, Jl8.8,
JI8.9, J20, J21
Pooled analysis
from 4 cities -
Brisbane, Sydney,
Melbourne, Perth.
0 years: No effect
1-4 years: No effect
15-64 years: No
effect
65+ years: No effect
(Environment
Protection and
Heritage Council
2005)
110
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
High heterogeneity
for 15-64 years
only.
Meta-analysis of 4
cities - Brisbane,
Melbourne, Perth
Sydney.
ICD9: 466, 480-486
ICD10: J12-J17,
J18.0, J18.1, Jl8.8,
JI8.9, J20, J21
Asthma 1-4 years: 2.3% n/a n/a 1.022 (0.996-1.049) n/a Recommended
(1.4-3.2%) per 13.6 per 25 ppb CRF: 1-14 years:
ppb (Peel, Tolbert et al. 1.8% (1.1-2.5%) per
5-9 years: 2.1% 2005) 13.6 ppb
(0.7-3.5%) per 13.6 (Wilson, Wake et al. (Jalaludin, Khalaj et
ppb 2005) al. 2008).
10-14 years: No (Abt Associates Inc
effect. 2011)
1-14 years: 1.8% Pooled results from
(1.1-2.5%) per 13.6 3 cities and 2
ppb studies.
(Jalaludin, Khalaj et 8-hour maximum.
al. 2008) Age: 0-99 years.
1-hour maximum.
Lag 01.
Greater significant
effects in warm
months but not cool
months.
ICD9: 493
111
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Children
Sydney
1-15 years
Non-linear
significant response
for Western &
South/South
Eastern regions (No
CRFs available). No
effect of O3 for Inner
Melbourne or
Eastern Melbourne
regions.
(Erbas, Kelly et al.
2005)
ICD10: J45, J46
Melbourne.
Lung function
112
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
history of wheezing
in last 12 months.
Mean age: 9.6
years.
Sydney.
15-54 years:
-0.2047 l/min
(-0.2760 to -0.03342
l/min) per 1 pphm
8-hour average
3-day average
Spring
55+ years:
-0.1568 l/min
(-0.2864 to -0.0272
l/min) per 1 pphm
8-hour average
Lag 2
Winter
(Rutherford,
Simpson et al.
2000)
Brisbane
Asthmatics allergic
to at least one
pollen or fungal
allergen.
No effect of 1-hour
maximum, 4-hour
average and 8-hour
average on PEF
either in all year
114
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
analysis or in warm
season only
analysis.
(Williams, Marks et
al. 2012)
Six cities –
Adelaide, Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Age: mean 10.0
years.
270 children with
current asthma.
Minor morbidity
115
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Minor restricted n/a 1.48% (0.57- 1.48% (0.57-2.38%) 1.0022 (1.0009- n/a Recommended
activity days 2.38%) per 10 per 10 µg/m3 1.0035) per 1 ppb CRF: 1.0022
(MRAD)3 µg/m3 8-hour average (Ostro and (1.0009-1.0035) per
8-hour average 0.11% (0.043- Rothschild 1989) 1 ppb
0.11% (0.043- 0.179%) per 1 (US EPA 1999) (Ostro and
0.179%) per 1 µg/m3 (Abt Associates Inc Rothschild 1989)
µg/m3 1-hour maximum 2011) (US EPA 1999)
(Ostro and (Ostro and 1-hour maximum. (Abt Associates Inc
Rothschild 1989) in Rothschild 1989). Age: 18-65 years. 2011)
(European (European O3 adjusted for
Commission 1995) Commission 2005) PM2.5 in study.
(AEA Technology Age: 18+ years.
Environment 2005) Whole population.
Age: Adults. O3 adjusted for
1-hour maximum PM2.5 in study.
O3 adjusted for
PM2.5 in study.
116
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Acute respiratory No effect on cough, n/a Presence of any 19 Presence of any 19 n/a No CRF
symptoms wheeze, acute respiratory acute respiratory recommended.
runny/blocked nose. symptoms: symptoms:
(Rodriguez et al, 1.0055 (1.0002- 1.0001 (1.0000- CRF by Krupnick et
2007) 1.0109) per 10 ppb 1.0003) per 1 ppb al (Krupnick,
Perth. (Krupnick, (Krupnick, Harrington et al.
Harrington et al. Harrington et al. 1990) may be used
1990) 1990) in a sensitivity
(European (US EPA 1999) analysis.
Commission 1995). Age: 18-65 years.
(AEA Technology Whole population. This endpoint not
Environment 2005) 1-hour maximum. used by US EPA in
its most recent cost-
benefit analysis
(US EPA 2011).
117
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Day wheeze: No
effect of 1-hour
maximum, 4-hour
average or 8-hour
average in either all
year analysis or
warm season only
analysis except for
protective effect for
8-hour average in
all year analysis.
Night symptoms:
Protective effects
for 1-hour
maximum, 4-hour
average and 8-hour
average in both all
year analysis and
warm season only
118
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
analysis
(Williams, Marks et
al. 2012)
Six cities –
Adelaide, Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney
Age: mean 10.0
years
270 children with
current asthma
Shortness of breath Day SOB: No effect n/a n/a n/a n/a No CRF
of 1-hour maximum, recommended.
4-hour average and
8-hour average in No effects shown in
either all year Australian 6-cities
analysis or in warm study (Williams,
season only Marks et al. 2012).
analysis.
Night SOB: No
effect of 1-hour
maximum, 4-hour
120
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Night symptoms: No
effect of 1-hour
maximum, 4-hour
average or 8-hour
average on any
night symptoms
(cough, wheeze,
shortness of breath)
in either all year
analysis or warm
season only
analysis
(Williams, Marks et
al. 2012)
Six cities –
Adelaide, Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney
Age: mean 10.0
years
270 children with
current asthma
124
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127
Table 4: NO2 health endpoints and associated concentration–response functions
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Mortality
All cause n/a1 n/a n/a n/a n/a No CRF
Results recommended.
inconsistent.
(US EPA 2008)
Morbidity
Incidence of asthma Ever had wheezing: n/a n/a n/a n/a Recommended CRF
No effect in single Results for asthma
pollutant model. inconsistent. incidence: 1.27
Largest effect in 2- (US EPA 2008) (1.04-1.56) per 4.31
128
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
ppb in 2-pollutant
Current asthma: model with CO
1.51
(1.08-2.12) per 4.31 Current asthma:
ppb in 2-pollutant 1.51
model with CO (1.08-2.12) per 4.31
ppb in 2-pollutant
Visit to model with CO
doctor/hospital: 1.51
(1.04-2.19) per 4.31 Visit to
ppb in 2-pollutant doctor/hospital: 1.51
model with O3 (1.04-2.19) per 4.31
ppb in 2-pollutant
Use of model with O3
bronchodilators:
1.35 Use of
(1.05-1.76) per 4.31 bronchodilators:
ppb in 2-pollutant 1.35
model with CO (1.05-1.76) per 4.31
(Williams, Marks et ppb in 2-pollutant
al. 2012) model with CO
Six cities – (Williams, Marks et
Adelaide, Brisbane, al. 2012).
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Average hourly NO2
over lifetime .
Age: mean age10.0
years.
2,860 children.
Change in forced -26.2 mls (-42.2 to n/a n/a n/a n/a Recommended
expiratory volume in -10.1 mls) per 4.31 CRF: -45.4 mls
1 second (FEV1; ppb in single (-74.3 to -16.5 mls)
litres) pollutant model per 4.31 ppb (in 2-
pollutant model with
Minimal change in CO) (Williams,
estimates in 2- Marks et al. 2012).
pollutant models
with PM2.5, PM10, O3.
Effect increased in
2-pollutant model
with CO: -45.4 mls
(-74.3 to -16.5 mls)
per 4.31 ppb
(Williams, Marks et
al. 2012)
Six cities –
Adelaide, Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Average hourly NO2
over lifetime.
Age: mean age10.0
years.
2,860 children.
Effect increased in
2-pollutant model
with O3: -43.1 mls (-
72.2 to -14.1 mls)
per 4.31 ppb
(Williams, Marks et
al. 2012)
Six cities –
Adelaide, Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Average hourly NO2
over lifetime.
Age: mean age10.0
years.
2,860 children.
Airway inflammation 1.03 (1.01-1.05) per n/a n/a n/a n/a Recommended
1 ppb in single CRF: 1.03 (1.01-
pollutant model. 1.05) per 1 ppb
Remains significant (Williams, Marks et
in 2-pollutant al. 2012).
models with PM2.5,
PM10, O3 and SO2
and CO.
(Williams, Marks et
al. 2012)
Six cities –
132
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Adelaide, Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Average hourly NO2
over lifetime.
Age: mean age10.0
years.
2,860 children.
Birth outcomes
1.006 (0.993-1.019)
per 1 ppb
(Jalaludin, Mannes
133
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
et al. 2007)
Sydney
1-hour maximum
Exposure period 3
months preceding
birth.
Low birth weight 1.01 (1.00-1.02) per n/a n/a n/a n/a No CRF
1 ppb for small for recommended.
gestation age
Only a few
-1.48 (-2.70 to Australian studies.
-0.26) grams per 1
ppb
(Mannes, Jalaludin
et al. 2005)
Sydney
1-hour maximum
Exposure period
third trimester for
both metrics.
Small for gestation
age <2 standard
deviations from
mean for sex and
gestational age.
Non-trauma 1.0012 (1.0006- 3.5% (1.6-5.4%) per n/a n/a n/a Recommended
1.0018) per 1 ppb 100 ug/m3 (US EPA 2008) CRF: 1.7% (0.3-
134
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
(Simpson, Williams (Touloumi, Suggestive but not 3.2%) per 8.98 ppb
et al. 2005) Katsouyanni et al. sufficient to infer a (Environment
Pooled CRF from 4 1997) causal relationship Protection and
cities (Committee on the as it is difficult to Heritage Council
ICD9: <800; ICD10: Medical Effects of attribute effects to 2005).
A-R, Z35.5, Z35.8 Air Pollutants 1998) NO2 alone.
Age: All Pooled CRF from 6 However, estimates
cities. were robust to
1.7% (0.3-3.2%) per adjustment for co-
8.98 ppb pollutants.
(Environment
Protection and
Heritage Council
2005)
1-hour maximum
Lag 01
Age: All
All year.
Moderate
heterogeneity.
Meta-analysis of 5
cities-Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
ICD9: <800; ICD10:
A-R, Z35.5, Z35.8
Cardiovascular 1.0018 (1.0008- 1.0% (0.8-1.3%) per n/a n/a n/a Recommended
1.0027) per 1 ppb 10 ug/m3 Suggestive but not CRF: 1.6% (0.4-
(Simpson, Williams (Committee on the sufficient to infer a 2.8%) per 8.98 ppb
et al. 2005) Medical Effects of causal relationship (Environment
Pooled CRF from 4 Air Pollutants 2006) as it is difficult to Protection and
cities. Moderate evidence attribute effects to Heritage Council
135
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
R09.8
Hospitalisation
Heart disease:
7.52% (5.21-9.88%)
per 17 ppb
(Morgan, Corbett et
al. 1998)
Sydney
Age: All
ICD9: 410, 413,
427, 428
24-hour average
Cardiac 1.0022 (1.0016- 1.3% (1.0-1.7%) per n/a n/a n/a Recommended
1.0028) per 1 ppb 10 ug/m3 Inadequate CRF:
(Simpson, Williams (Committee on the evidence for causal 15-64 years: 1.2%
et al. 2005) Medical Effects of relationship, but (0.0-2.4%) per 8.98
Pooled estimate Air Pollutants 2006) generally positive ppb in 15-64 years;
from 4 cities No evidence of associations seen 3.3% (2.4-4.3%) per
(Sydney, Perth, publication bias. with cardiovascular 8.98 ppb in 15-64
Melbourne, CRF not intended disease years (Environment
Brisbane) for health risk hospitalisations or Protection and
139
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Cardiac failure 15-64 years: No 1.3% (0.4-2.3%) n/a n/a n/a Recommended
effect change per 10 CRF: 7.5% (5.3-
65+ years: 7.5% ug/m3 9.7%) per 8.98 ppb
(5.3-9.7%) per 8.98 (Committee on the in 65+ years
ppb Medical Effects of (Environment
(Environment Air Pollutants 2006) Protection and
140
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
(excluding I68.0),
I69, G45 (excluding
G45.3), G46
Ischaemic heart 1.0017 (1.0007- 0.6% (-0.1 to 1.4%) n/a n/a n/a Recommended
disease 1.0027) per 1 ppb per 10 ug/m3 CRF: 1.0017
(Simpson, Williams (Committee on the (1.0007-1.0027) per
et al. 2005) Medical Effects of 1ppb (Simpson,
Pooled estimate Air Pollutants 2006) Williams et al.
from 4 cities No evidence of 2005).
(Sydney, Perth, publication bias.
Melbourne, CRF not intended The following CRF
Brisbane) for health risk may be used in a
lCD9: 410-413; assessment sensitivity analysis:
ICDI0: I20-I22, I24, purposes. 2.7% (1.5-4.0%) per
I25.2 8.98 ppb in 65+
Age: All years (Environment
1-hour maximum Protection and
Heritage Council
15-64 years: No 2005). Note the
effect restricted agegroup.
65+ years: 2.7%
(1.5-4.0%) per 8.98
ppb
(Environment
Protection and
Heritage Council
2005)
1-hour maximum
Lag 01
Meta-analysis of 5
cities - Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
142
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Sydney.
Low heterogeneity.
lCD9: 410-413;
ICDI0: I20-I22, I24,
I25.2
1-hour maximum
Lag 01
Meta-analysis of 5
cities - Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Low heterogeneity.
lCD9: 410; ICDI0:
I21, I22
ppb
65+ years: No
effect.
(Environment
Protection and
Heritage Council
2005)
Meta-analysis of 5
cities - Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Low heterogeneity.
lCD9: 460-519;
ICDI0: J00-J99
(excluding J95.4-
J95.9), R09.1,
R09.8
1-hour maximum
Asthma 1-14 years: 5.29% 2.6% (0.6-4.9%) per n/a n/a n/a No CRF
(1.07-9.68%) per 29 50 ug/m3 Consistent evidence recommended.
ppb (Sunyer, Spix et al. of positive
(Morgan, Corbett et 1997) associations, 2 Australian multi-
al. 1998) (Committee on the particularly for cities studies have
Sydney Medical Effects of asthma. shown no effects.
ICD9: 493 Air Pollutants 1998) (US EPA 2008)
1-hour maximum Pooled CRF from 4 May use either
cities. 0-29 years: 1.0243 Morgan et al
No effect 24-hour average (1.0084-1.0405) per (Morgan, Corbett et
(Simpson, Williams ?Age 10 ppb al. 1998) CRF in a
et al. 2005) 30-99 years: 1.0141 sensitivity analysis.
Pooled CRF from 4 (1.0042-1.0241) per Note the restricted
cities (Sydney, 10 ppb age group.
145
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Chronic obstructive 65+ years: 1.0019 1.9% (0.2-4.7%) per n/a Pooled CRF from 2 n/a No CRF
pulmonary disease (1.0005-1.0033) per 50 ug/m3 analyses shown recommended.
(COPD) 1 ppb (Anderson, Spix et below (pooled CRF
(Simpson, Williams al. 1997) not available) No effect in the 5-
146
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Pneumonia and 65+ years: 1.0018 n/a n/a n/a n/a No CRF
acute bronchitis (1.0002-1.0033) per recommended.
1 ppb
147
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
148
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Lung function
150
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Sydney.
Age: mean 10.0
years.
270 children with
current asthma.
No effect.
(Rutherford,
Simpson et al.
2000)
Brisbane and
Ipswich
Mixed-models
Age: All
(n=53)
History of allergy to
pollen or fungi on
skin prick testing
Morning PEF:
-0.4042 (-0.7318 to
-0.0767) per 1 ppb
(Williams, Marks et
151
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
al. 2012)
1-hour maximum
Lag 2
Two-pollutant model
with O3
Six cities –
Adelaide, Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Age: mean 10.0
years.
270 children with
current asthma.
(O'Connor, Neas et
al. 2008)
Slow play, missed
school days,
Night-time asthma.
(Schildcrout,
Sheppard et al.
2006)
One or more
symptoms.
(US EPA 2010)
(Abt Associates Inc
2011)
Age: 4–12 years
No effect
(Delfino, Zeiger et
al. 2002)
(US EPA 2010)
(Abt Associates Inc
2011)
Asthmatic children
Age: 13–18 years
One or more
symptoms
8-hour maximum
154
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
24-hour average
Day wheeze:
1.0722 (1.0130-
1.1348) per 1 ppb in
2-pollutant model
with O3
Lag 0
Night wheeze:
1.0640 (1.0186-
1.1114) per 1 ppb
Night wheeze: No
effect in 2-pollutant
model with O3
(Williams, Marks et
al. 2012)
155
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Six cities –
Adelaide, Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Age: mean 10.0
years.
270 children with
current asthma.
Cough 1.028 (1.002-1.055) n/a n/a 1.17 (0.94-1.46) for n/a Recommended CRF
per ?1 ppm a 10 ppb in sensitivity
(Rodriguez, Tonkin (Schwartz, Dockery analysis:
et al. 2007) et al. 1994) 24-hour average
Age: 0-5 years (US EPA 2010) Night cough: 1.0447
Perth (Abt Associates Inc (1.0015-1.0898) per
24-hour mean 2011) 1 ppb in 2-pollutant
Not clear from the Age: 7-14 years model with O3
paper the metric for Lag 0-4 days (Williams, Marks et
NO2 concentration al. 2012).
used in the
calculation of CRF. Note inconsistency
of results between
Wet cough: 1.05 single and 2-
(1.00-1.10) per 8.2 pollutant models.
ppb
Dry cough: No
effect.
(Jalaludin, O'Toole
et al. 2004)
148 children (mean
age about 9.6
years) with a history
of wheezing in
156
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
previous 12 months.
Sydney.
1-hour maximum
Day cough:
1.0186 (1.0013-
1.0362) per 1 ppb
Lag 2
Day cough: No
effect in 2-pollutant
model with O3
Night cough: 1.0282
(1.0096-1.0473) per
1 ppb
Lag 2
Night cough: No
effect in 2-pollutant
model with O3
24-hour average
Day cough:
1.0535 (1.0219-
1.0861) per 1 ppb
Lag 0
Day cough: No
effect in 2-pollutant
model with O3
Night cough: 1.0447
(1.0015-1.0898) per
1 ppb in 2-pollutant
model with O3
Lag 3
(Williams, Marks et
al. 2012)
157
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Six cities –
Adelaide, Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney
Age: mean 10.0
years
270 children with
current asthma
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Age: mean 10.0
years.
270 children with
current asthma.
No effect of either 1-
hour maximum or
24-hour average
(Williams, Marks et
al. 2012)
Six cities –
Adelaide, Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Age: mean 10.0
years.
270 children with
current asthma.
(Rodriguez, Tonkin
et al. 2007)
Age: 0-5 years
Perth
24-hour mean
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163
Table 5: SO2 health endpoints and associated concentration-response functions
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Mortality
All cause n/a1 n/a n/a n/a n/a No CRF
Evidence is recommended.
inadequate to
confer causal
relationship.
(US EPA 2008)
Morbidity
Incidence of asthma Ever had wheezing: n/a n/a n/a n/a No CRF
No effect in single recommended.
pollutant model and
164
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
No effect or
165
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
(Williams, Marks et
al. 2012)
Six cities –
Adelaide, Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney
Average hourly SO2
over lifetime
Age: mean age10.0
years
2,860 children
Birth outcomes
Birth defects Cleft lip±cleft palate: n/a n/a n/a n/a No CRF
1.27 (1.01, 1.62) per Evidence is recommended.
0.6ppb inconsistent.
All births (US EPA 2008) Only 1 Australian
Aortic artery and study.
valve: 10.76 (1.50,
179.83) per 0.6ppb
Births within 6km of
air monitoring
station
(Hansen, Barnett et
al. 2009)
Brisbane
168
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
3 months preceding
birth: 2.330 (1.344–
4.040) per 1 ppb.
Births within 5km of
air monitoring
station
(Jalaludin, Mannes
et al. 2007)
Sydney
1-hour maximum
Low birth weight Not assessed n/a n/a n/a n/a No CRF
(Mannes, Jalaludin recommended.
et al. 2005)
Sydney
Not assessed
(Hansen, Neller et
al. 2007)
Brisbane
169
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Mortality
22.3% (6.4-40.5%)
per 1 pphm in multi-
pollutant models
(Hu, Mengersen et
al. 2008)
Sydney
24-hour average.
170
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Cardiovascular Not assessed in 4 0.8% (0.6-1.0%) per n/a n/a n/a No CRF
cities study 10 ug/m3 recommended.
(Simpson, Williams (Committee on the
et al. 2005) Medical Effects of No effect in
Brisbane, Air Pollutants 2006) Australian 2-cities
Melbourne, Perth, Random effects meta-analysis
Sydney. estimate. (Environment
24-hour average. Protection and
No effect. Moderate-strong Heritage Council
(Environment evidence of 2005).
Protection and publication bias.
Heritage Council CRF not intended May use the CRF
2005) for health risk from COMEAP
1-hour maximum assessment. (Committee on the
Lag 01 Medical Effects of
Age: All ages. 1.04 (1.01-1.06) per Air Pollutants 1998)
All year. 50 ug/m3 in a sensitivity
Moderate (Committee on the analysis.
heterogeneity. Medical Effects of
Meta-analysis of 2 Air Pollutants 1998)
cities – Brisbane, 24-hour average.
Sydney. APHEA estimates
ICD9: 390-459; for 5 western
ICD10: I00-I99 European cities.
(excluding I67.3,
I68.0, I88, I97.8,
I97.9, I98.0), G45
(excluding G45.3),
G46, M30, M31,
171
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
R58
Respiratory Not assessed in 4 1.05 (1.03-1.07) per n/a n/a n/a No CRF
cities study 50 ug/m3 recommended.
(Simpson, Williams (Committee on the
et al. 2005) Medical Effects of No effect in
Brisbane, Air Pollutants 1998) Australian 2-cities
Melbourne, Perth, 24-hour average. meta-analysis
Sydney. APHEA estimates (Environment
for 5 western Protection and
No effect. European cities. Heritage Council
(Environment 2005).
Protection and
Heritage Council May use the CRF
2005) from COMEAP
1-hour maximum. (Committee on the
Lag 01. Medical Effects of
Age: All ages. Air Pollutants 1998)
All year. in a sensitivity
Moderate analysis.
heterogeneity.
Meta-analysis of 2
cities – Brisbane,
Sydney
ICD9: 460-519;
ICD10: J00-J99
(excluding J95.4 to
J95.9), R09.1,
R09.8.
Hospitalisation
172
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Cardiac Not assessed in 4 2.4% (1.6-3.3%) per n/a n/a n/a No CRF
cities study 10 ug/m3 recommended.
(Simpson, Williams (Committee on the
et al. 2005) Medical Effects of No effect in
Air Pollutants 2006) Australian 2-cities
15-64 years: No Random effects meta-analysis
effect estimate. (Environment
65+ years: No effect 24-hour average. Protection and
173
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Ischaemic heart Not assessed in 4 1.2% (0.5-1.9%) per n/a n/a n/a No CRF
disease cities study 10 ug/m3 recommended.
(Simpson, Williams (Committee on the
et al. 2005) Medical Effects of No effect in
Air Pollutants 2006) Australian 2-cities
15-64 years: No Random effects meta-analysis
effect estimate. (Environment
65+ years: No effect 24-hour average. Protection and
(Environment No evidence of Heritage Council
Protection and publication bias. 2005).
Heritage Council CRF not intended
2005) for health risk May use the CRF
1-hour maximum. assessment. from COMEAP
Lag 01. (Committee on the
Meta-analysis of 2 Medical Effects of
cities - Brisbane, Air Pollutants 2006)
Sydney. in a sensitivity
Low to moderate analysis.
heterogeneity.
174
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
lCD9: 410-413;
ICDI0: I20-I22, I24,
I25.2
1-hour maximum.
Lag 01.
Meta-analysis of 2
cities - Brisbane,
Sydney.
Low heterogeneity.
ICD9: 430-438;
ICD10: I60-I66, I67
(excluding I67.0,
I67.3), I68
(excluding I68.0),
I69, G45 (excluding
G45.3), G46
Respiratory Not assessed in 4 65+ years: 0.5% per 10 ug/m3 n/a n/a Recommended
cities study 1.020 (1.005-1.046) (AEA Technology Effect ranges from CRF: For 65+ years
(Simpson, Williams per 50 ug/m3 Environment 2005) -5 to +20% risk per age-group, 2.8%
et al. 2005) 15-64 years: No 10 ppb increase in (1.0-4.7%) per 5.4
effect. SO2 (24-hour ppb from Australian
0 years: No effect (Committee on the average), with study (Environment
1-4 years: No effect Medical Effects of effects observed at Protection and
5-14 years: No Air Pollutants 1998) levels of 4 ppb, but Heritage Council
effect Based on APHEA marked increases in 2005).
15-64 years: No estimates for 5 effect at only higher
effect western European SO2 (>90th No CRF
65+ years: 2.8% cities. percentile values). recommended for all
(1.0-4.7%) per 5.4 (US EPA 2008) other age-groups as
ppb there were no
(Environment 0.4% (0-1.02%) per effects in the
Protection and 1 ppb Australian 2-cities
Heritage Council (US EPA 1999) meta-analysis
2005) (Environment
1-hour maximum. Protection and
Lag 01. Heritage Council
177
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Meta-analysis of 2 2005).
cities - Brisbane,
Sydney.
High heterogeneity
in 5-14 years only.
lCD9: 460-519;
ICDI0: J00-J99
(excluding J95.4-
J95.9), R09.1,
R09.8
Sydney
Moderate to high
heterogeneity
ICD9: 466, 480-486;
ICD10: J12-J17,
J18.0, J18.1, J18.8,
J18.9,
J20, J21
Not assessed.
(Pereira, Cook et al.
2010)
Perth
180
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
attacks recommended.
(24-hr PM)
Lung function
181
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Minor morbidity
184
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Adelaide, Brisbane,
Canberra,
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Age: mean 10.0
years.
270 children with
current asthma.
Bronchodilator use 1-hour maximum n/a n/a n/a n/a Recommended CRF
Night use: 1.0247 for night
(1.0021-1.0478) per bronchodilator use:
1 ppb in 2-pollutant 1.0247 (1.0021-
models with PM10 1.0478) per 1 ppb in
24-hour average 2-pollutant models
No effect with PM10 from
186
Concentration-response function (95%CI)
Melbourne, Perth,
Sydney.
Age: mean 10.0
years.
270 children with
current asthma.
REFERENCES
AEA Technology Environment (2005). Methodology for the cost-benefit analysis for CAFE: Volume 2: Health impact assessment. Oxon, UK, AEA Technology
Environment.
Burnett, R. T., D. Stieb, et al. (2004). "Associations between short-term changes in nitrogen dioxide and mortality in Canadian cities." Archives of Environment Health 59:
228-236.
Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollutants (1998). Quantification of the effects of air pollution on health in the United Kingdom. London, Department of Health,
United Kingdom.
Committee on the Medical Effects of Air Pollutants (2006). Cardiovascular disease and air pollution. London, Department of Health, UK.
Environment Protection and Heritage Council (2005). Expansion of the multi-city mortality and morbidity study. Final report. Volume 3. Tabulated results, Environment
Protection and Heritage Council.
188
Erbas, B., A.-M. Kelly, et al. (2005). "Air pollution and childhood asthma emergency hospital admissions: estimating intra-city regional variations." International Journal of
Environmental Health Research 15(1): 11-20.
Hansen, C., A. Neller, et al. (2007). "Low levels of ambient air pollution during pregnancy and fetal growth among term neonates in Brisbane, Australia." Environmental
Research 103(3): 383-389.
Hansen, C. A., A. G. Barnett, et al. (2009). "Ambient Air Pollution and Birth Defects in Brisbane, Australia." Plos One 4(4).
Hu, W., K. Mengersen, et al. (2008). "Temperature, air pollution and total mortality during summers in Sydney, 1994–2004." International Journal of Biometeorology 52(7):
689-696.
Jalaludin, B., B. Khalaj, et al. (2008). "Acute effects of ambient air pollutants on ED visits for asthma in children, Sydney, Australia: a case-crossover analysis." International
Archives of Occupational & Environmental Health 81(8): 967-974.
Jalaludin, B., T. Mannes, et al. (2007). "Impact of ambient air pollution on gestational age is modified by season in Sydney, Australia." Environmental Health 6: 16.
Lebowitz, M. D. (1996). "Epidemiological studies of the respiratory effects of air pollution." The European Respiratory Journal 9: 1029-1054.
Lewis, P. R., M. J. Hensley, et al. (1998). "Outdoor air pollution and children's respiratory symptoms in the steel cities of New South Wales [see comments]." Medical Journal
of Australia 169(9): 459-463.
Mannes, T., B. Jalaludin, et al. (2005). "Impact of ambient air pollution on birth weight in Sydney, Australia." Occupational and Environmental Medicine 62(8): 524-530.
Pereira, G., A. Cook, et al. (2010). "A case-crossover analysis of traffic-related air pollution and emergency department presentations for asthma in Perth, Western Australia."
Medical Journal of Australia 193(9): 511-514.
Simpson, R., G. Williams, et al. (2005). "The short-term effects of air pollution on daily mortality in four Australian cities." Australian & New Zealand Journal of Public
Health 29(3): 205-212.
Simpson, R., G. Williams, et al. (2005). "The short-term effects of air pollution on hospital admissions in four Australian cities " Australian & New Zealand Journal of Public
Health 29(3): 213-221.
Streeton, J. (1997). A review of existing health data on six pollutants. National environment protection (ambient air quality) measure. Adelaide, National Environment
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US EPA (1999). The Benefits and Costs of the Clean Air Act 1990 to 2010. Washington, DC, United States Environmental Protection Agency.
US EPA (2008). Integrated science assessment for sulfur oxides-health criteria, ISA: EPA/600/R-08/047F US Environmental Protection Agency
WHO (2006). WHO Air quality guidelines for particulate matter, ozone, nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide. Global Update 2005. Summary of risk assessment. Geneva,
World Health Organization.
WHO Europe (2000). Air quality guidelines for Europe: second edition. Copenhagen, WHO Regional Office for Europe.
Williams, G., G. Marks, et al. (2012). Australian Child Health and Air Pollution Study (ACHAPS). Final report. Environment Protection and Heritage Council (in press).
Wong, C. M., R. W. Atkinson, et al. (2002). "A tale of two cities: effects of air pollution on hospital admissions in Hong Kong and London compared." Environmental Health
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189
Table 6: Sources of health data
Type of Data custodian Years of available data Variables in dataset Process for accessing Time frame for
health data data accessing data
Mortality ABS (aggregate and coded ABS: 2002-2012 (last 10 Variables include : age or National Information Up to 1 month.
data available to SLA level years). Some data back to DOB, gender, underlying Referral Service (NIRS)
(lowest geographic 1968 but would incorporate cause of death (ABS), 1300 135 070 or complete
idenitifier)).* ICD8, ICD9 and ICD10 multiple causes of death Inquiry form located at
coding. (ABS), SLA (geographic http://www4.abs.gov.au/
Individual State Registrars identifier), ICD codes. web/survey.nsf/inquiryform/
of Births, Deaths and
Marriages (unit record data Specify requirements and
available but not coded). work is quoted. Minimum
charge of $650 for 3 hrs.
Hospitalisation National Hospital Morbidity Data by State; annual AIHW, Head, Hospitals
Database (NHMD) frequency of reporting Data Unit, 02 6244 1157;
administered by AIHW. (Australian Institute of [email protected]
Health and Welfare).
State health agencies, eg. NSW Admitted Patient Apply in writing to NSW 2 weeks to a few
NSW Ministry of Health. Data - 1988/89-current Data to SLA & postcode Chief Health Officer months, depending
(June 2011) levels. Other geographic whereupon data needs will on nature of
level may be available on be assessed. request.
request.
Data Custodian:
Variables include: age, Director
190
Type of Data custodian Years of available data Variables in dataset Process for accessing Time frame for
health data data accessing data
Emergency State health agencies, for For example, NSW Data to SLA & postcode Apply in writing to NSW 2 weeks to a few
department example, NSW Ministry of Emergency Department levels. Other geographic Chief Health Officer months, depending
(ED) visits Health. Database; July 1996-year level may be available on whereupon data needs will on nature of
to date (2012). request. be assessed. request.
ED visit data for asthma
available for NSW, Victoria Age, DOB, gender, Data Custodian:
& WA, but method of data postcode, arrival date and Director
collection differs (ACAM time, triage date and time, Demand & Performance
2011). diagnosis- ICD9 and ICD Evaluation Branch, NSW
10, type of visit, mode of Ministry of Health
separation, other Tel: 02 9391 9590
demographic data.
Perinatal State health agencies, for For example, Perinatal Data to SLA & postcode Apply in writing to NSW 2 weeks to a few
example, NSW Ministry of Data Collection (PDC), levels of mother’s Chief Health Officer months, depending
Health. encompasses all live births residence. Other whereupon data needs will on nature of
>20 weeks gestation or geographic level may be be assessed request.
≥400 grams birth weight. available on request.
1987-1988; 1989 (missing); Data Custodian:
1990-current (2009). Variables include: mother’s Manager,
demographic details, Surveillance Methods
baby’s DOB, gender; date Centre for Epidemiology &
of last menstrual period, Research, NSW Ministry of
birth order, gestational age, Health
191
Type of Data custodian Years of available data Variables in dataset Process for accessing Time frame for
health data data accessing data
Prevalence of COPD in
2007-08 National Health
Survey estimated at 5.3%,
but is likely to be an under-
estimation (ACAM 2011).
COPD (Stage 2)
prevalence from BOLD
study (Sydney) 9.4%
(Buist, McBurnie et al.
2007).
Prevalence in Australia
BOLD study (Stage 2 or
higher) 7.5% in 40 years+
and 29.2% in 75 years+
(Toelle 2012).
192
Type of Data custodian Years of available data Variables in dataset Process for accessing Time frame for
health data data accessing data
193
Type of Data custodian Years of available data Variables in dataset Process for accessing Time frame for
health data data accessing data
194
Type of Data custodian Years of available data Variables in dataset Process for accessing Time frame for
health data data accessing data
REFERENCES
ACAM (2011). Asthma in Australia 2011 Canberra, AIHW Asthma Series no 4. Cat. No. ACM. Australian Centre for Asthma Monitoring, AIHW.
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2005). Chronic respiratory diseases in Australia. Their prevalence, consequences and prevention AIHW Cat. No. PHE 63.
Canberra: AIHW.
Buist, A. S., W. M. McBurnie, et al. (2007). "International variation in the prevalence of COPD (The BOLD Study): a population-based prevalence study." The Lancet 370:
741-750.
Toelle, B. (2012). Airflow obstruction, respiratory symptoms and respiratory illnesses in Australians aged 40 years and older: the Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease
(BOLD) study in Australia (personal communication; manuscript currently under review with the Medical Journal of Australia).
195