Wasde 1222
Wasde 1222
Wasde 1222
ISSN: 1554-9089
and Demand Estimates
Office of the Agricultural Marketing Service Economic Research Service
Chief Economist Farm Service Agency Foreign Agricultural Service
WASDE - 631 Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board December 9, 2022
WHEAT: This month’s 2022/23 U.S. wheat supply and use outlook is unchanged from last
month. There are offsetting changes for exports by-class with Hard Red Spring and White
higher and Soft Red Winter lower. The 2022/23 season-average farm price is forecast $0.10
per bushel lower at $9.10, based on prices received to date and expectations for futures and
cash prices for the remainder of 2022/23.
The global wheat outlook for 2022/23 wheat is for reduced supplies, lower consumption,
increased trade, and reduced stocks. Supplies are lowered 2.1 million tons to 1,056.9 million
on reduced production for Argentina and Canada that is only partly offset by higher Australia
production. Argentina is lowered 3.0 million tons to 12.5 million with reductions in both area
harvested and yield on continued widespread dry conditions. This would be the lowest
production since 2015/16. Canada’s production is reduced 1.2 million tons to 33.8 million,
based on the latest Statistics Canada estimate and is the third largest crop on record.
Australia’s production is raised 2.1 million tons to a record 36.6 million, based on the latest
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARES) forecast.
Global consumption is reduced 1.6 million tons to 789.5 million, mainly on lower feed and
residual use by the EU and Ukraine. World trade is raised 2.2 million tons to 210.9 million on
higher exports by Australia, Ukraine, the EU, and Russia more than offsetting reduced
exports by Argentina. Australia exports are raised 1.5 million tons to a near-record 27.5
million. Because of excessive rains in New South Wales at harvest, Australia’s feed wheat
supplies are expected to be greater for 2022/23 and competitively priced against feed grains
for East Asian importers. This resulted in higher imports for South Korea and several
Southeast Asian countries this month. Ukraine exports are increased 1.5 million tons to 12.5
million. Argentina’s exports are reduced 2.5 million tons to 7.5 million with lower exportable
supplies. This would be Argentina’s lowest exports since 2014/15. Projected 2022/23
ending stocks are decreased 0.5 million tons to 267.3 million as reductions for Russia,
Canada, Argentina, and Ukraine more than offset increases for the EU and Australia.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower exports and greater
ending stocks. Exports are lowered 75 million bushels as competition from other exporters
and relatively high U.S. prices have resulted in slow sales and shipments through early
December. With no other use changes, corn ending stocks are raised 75 million bushels.
The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $6.70 per
bushel based on observed prices to date.
For 2022/23 sorghum, a substantial decline in demand from China supports greater domestic
use expectations. Exports are lowered 20 million bushels, with offsetting increases to food,
seed, and industrial and feed and residual use.
WASDE-631-2
Global coarse grain production for 2022/23 is forecast down 5.9 million tons to 1,453.6
million. The 2022/23 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, greater trade, and
smaller stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is reduced with forecast
declines for Ukraine, Russia, the EU, and Vietnam. Ukraine corn production is sharply lower
with reductions to both area and yield as the ongoing conflict and record-setting autumn
rainfall have delayed the harvest in key producing oblasts of Poltava, Sumy, and Cherkasy.
Russia corn production is lowered as harvest delays in the country reduce area expectations.
Barley production is raised for Australia based on the most recent crop report from ABARES.
Argentina barley production is cut on continued dry conditions.
Corn exports are raised for Ukraine but lowered for the United States, Russia, and the EU.
Barley exports are raised for Australia but lowered for Argentina. For 2021/22, sorghum
exports for Argentina are lowered for the local marketing year beginning March 2022, based
on shipments through the month of November. For 2022/23, corn imports are raised for the
EU, but lowered for Canada, Iran, South Korea, Mexico, Vietnam, Philippines, and Turkey.
Sorghum imports are reduced for China. Foreign corn ending stocks are down, reflecting
reductions for Ukraine, Paraguay, Vietnam, and Mexico. Global corn stocks, at 298.4 million
tons, are down 2.4 million.
RICE: The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. rice is for unchanged supplies and domestic use, lower
exports, and higher stocks compared with last month. The export forecast is reduced 2.0
million cwt to 69.0 million, all long-grain, based on a slow pace of shipments and sales and
would be the lowest level since 1991/92. Rough rice exports are reduced 2.0 million cwt to
23.0 million, which would be the lowest level since 2000/01. Ending stocks are forecast 2.0
million cwt higher to 38.1 million.
The 2022/23 season average farm price (SAFP) forecasts for all medium- and short-grain
rice and all-rice were both lowered as the proportion of California rice for 2022/23 is expected
to be smaller. The medium- and short-grain SAFP forecast is lowered $0.90 per cwt to
$29.10 and the all-rice SAFP forecast is lowered $0.90 per cwt to $19.00. The SAFP for
long-grain rice is unchanged at $16.50 per cwt.
The 2022/23 global outlook has slightly lower supplies, less consumption, increased trade,
and slightly reduced ending stocks compared with last month. Supplies are lowered 1.2
million tons to 685.6 million, primarily on lower beginning stocks for Vietnam and Thailand
and reduced production in Australia and the EU. The global consumption forecast declines
0.9 million tons to 516.9 million, primarily on a reduction for India. Trade is forecast 0.9
million tons larger to 53.7 million tons, mainly on increased exports for India, Thailand, and
Vietnam. Global 2022/23 ending stocks are reduced by 0.4 million tons to 168.6 million, the
lowest since 2017/18.
OILSEEDS: Total U.S. oilseed production for 2022/23 is forecast at 127.9 million tons, up
slightly due to an increase for cottonseed. Soybean supply and use projections for 2022/23
are unchanged from last month. Based on a review of EPA's recent proposed rule for
renewable fuel obligation targets, soybean oil used for biofuel for 2022/23 is reduced 200
million pounds to 11.6 billion. Soybean oil exports are also reduced on historically low export
sales through November. With reduced use of soybean oil for biofuel and exports, food use
and ending stocks are raised. The U.S. season-average soybean price forecast is
WASDE-631-3
unchanged at $14.00 per bushel. The soybean oil price is reduced 1 cent per pound to 68
cents. The soybean meal price forecast is increased $10.00 to $410.00 per short ton.
Global oilseed production for 2022/23 is projected at 644.4 million tons, down 1.2 million from
last month. Lower sunflower, rapeseed, palm kernel, and cottonseed production forecasts
are partly offset by higher soybean output. Global sunflowerseed production is reduced for
Russia and Ukraine based on harvest results. Canola production for Canada is lowered 0.5
million tons to 19.0 million based on government reports. Palm kernel and palm oil
production is lowered for Indonesia for 2021/22, reflecting crop losses during periods of
export restrictions and poor harvest weather. Indonesian palm oil production for 2022/23 is
also lowered 1.0 million tons to 45.5 million.
The global soybean outlook includes higher production, exports, and ending stocks.
Production is raised on higher output for India and Ukraine. Exports are raised slightly as
higher shipments for Argentina are partly offset by lower exports for Canada and Paraguay.
With global crush relatively unchanged, ending stocks are raised 0.5 million tons to 102.7
million.
SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply in 2022/23 is virtually unchanged from last month as projected
changes in production are counterbalanced by projected imports of sugar from Mexico in
accordance with the terms of the CVD Suspension Agreements. Beet sugar production is
lowered 66,980 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 4.927 million. Beet processors reduced their
forecast of sugarbeets available for slicing by 252,846 tons in their December forecast
published in Sweetener Market Data. An increase in cane sugar production partially offsets
the beet sugar decline. Cane sugar production in Louisiana is increased by 18,460 STRV to
2.025 million. Although NASS decreased its sugarcane yield to 32.2 tons/acre from 32.4,
production is increased on more cane area for sugar instead of for seed and a 1.01 percent
increase in recovery projected by processors. Cane sugar in Texas is increased slightly on
processor reporting. Imports from Mexico are projected based on fulfilling U.S. Needs
according to components from this December WASDE which will be used by the Department
of Commerce in establishing the Export Limit as of January 1, 2023. There are no changes
to use. Ending stocks are residually projected at 1.707 million STRV for an ending stocks-to-
use ratio of 13.5 percent, virtually unchanged from last month.
On November 23, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) issued a Withhold Release Order
(WRO) against Central Romana Corporation in the Dominican Republic (DR) on alleged use
of forced labor and other factors. The WRO prohibits entry into the United States of raw
sugar and sugar-based products produced by the company. The USDA has determined that
the DR sugar industry intends to re-configure distribution in the local sugar market and re-
arrange the company level allotments of the TRQ with the local mills to meet its full 2022/23
raw sugar TRQ allocation.
USDA projects Mexico sugar production for 2022/23 the same as last month at 5.900 million
metric tons (MT). CONADESUCA released its 2022/23 forecast of 6.026 million MT in
November. The USDA adopts CONADESUCA projected sugarcane yield of 64.06
MT/hectare and recovery of 11.30 percent, but projects area harvested only at 814,850
hectares, up about 15,000 hectares from last month but less than CONADESUCA’s forecast
of 832,245. Exports are projected at 1.266 million MT and almost all (barring a small amount
exported in October) is intended for the U.S. market under export license. Ending stocks are
WASDE-631-4
projected at a level covering 2023/24 use for 2.5 months prior to next season’s campaign.
Shipments to IMMEX are reduced by 38,886 MT to 494,114 to accommodate exports to the
U.S. market.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2022 red meat and poultry
production is raised from last month as higher beef, broiler, and turkey forecasts for the
fourth quarter are partly offset by lower pork. Beef production is raised with higher expected
cattle slaughter as well as heavier carcass weights. Pork production is lowered on lighter
carcass weights. Broiler and turkey production are raised on current slaughter and hatchery
data. Egg production is raised slightly on revised third-quarter data.
For 2023, the beef forecast is unchanged, with offsetting first and second quarter changes.
Broiler production is raised on more rapid expected growth in bird numbers later in the year.
Turkey production is lowered for the first half of the year on recent discoveries of Highly
Pathogenic Avian Influenza. Egg production is reduced on a slower expected pace of
recovery.
Beef imports for 2022 are unchanged, but exports are raised on recent data. Exports are
raised for 2023 on expectations of continued momentum to East Asian markets. Pork
imports and exports for 2022 are both lowered on recent data. Pork imports for 2023 are
lowered slightly, while exports are unchanged. The broiler export forecast for 2022 is raised
on recent trade data, while 2023 exports are lowered. Turkey exports are unchanged, but
imports are raised for both years on current data and tightness in domestic supplies.
Price forecasts for cattle, hogs, and broilers are unchanged for 2022 and 2023. The turkey
price forecast for 2022 is lowered on current price data, but the forecast for 2023 is
unchanged. Egg price forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are raised on recent prices and
expectations of continued firm demand and tight supplies.
The milk production forecast for 2022 is unchanged from last month. The 2023 production
forecast is raised slightly with both higher expected cow numbers and slightly more rapid
growth in output per cow.
Fat and skim-solids basis imports for 2022 are raised, driven by recent trade data and
expectations of continued demand for imported cheese and butterfat products. Forecasts for
2023 fat basis and skim-solids basis imports are raised on imports of butter and milk
proteins, respectively. Exports on a fat basis for 2022 and 2023 are raised on butter and
casein. Exports on a skim-solids basis are raised in 2022 as higher nonfat dry milk (NDM)
more than offsets lower lactose. The 2023 forecast is reduced on lower lactose shipments.
For 2022, forecasts for butter and cheese are raised on recent prices and expectations of
continued strength in demand, but whey and NDM prices are unchanged. The Class III price
is raised on the higher cheese price and the Class IV price is raised on the higher butter
price. For 2023, the price forecasts for cheese and butter are raised as demand strength
carries into 2023, but prices for NDM and whey are lowered on pressure from international
markets. The higher cheese price more than offsets the lower whey price and the Class III
price is raised while the Class IV price forecast is lowered, reflecting the lower NDM price.
The 2022 all milk price forecast is raised to $25.65 per cwt and the 2023 all milk price is
raised to $22.70 per cwt.
WASDE-631-5
COTTON: This month’s 2022/23 U.S. cotton forecasts include higher production and ending
stocks but lower mill use and exports. Production is 211,000 bales higher—at 14.2 million
bales—mainly due to higher yields in the Delta and Southeast. Mill use is lowered 100,000
bales reflecting reduced spinning levels to date and weaker expectations for future demand.
A reduction in expected world demand and trade results in a 250,000-bale decrease for U.S.
cotton exports, down to 12.25 million. Ending stocks are now expected to be 500,000 bales
higher than they were a month earlier, but the upland cotton season-average farm price is
unchanged at 85 cents per pound.
The global 2022/23 cotton forecasts include lower production, consumption, and trade, but
higher ending stocks. Production is down 700,000 bales from the previous month’s forecast,
led by an 800,000-bale decline in Pakistan’s flood-damaged crop. Australian production is
estimated 500,000 bales lower, and Mali’s crop is reduced 120,000 bales. Higher than
expected yields in Turkey resulted in a 500,000-bale upward revision. Global consumption is
down 3.3 million bales from the previous month, and on a year-to-year basis world cotton use
is now projected to decline 4.9 percent, similar to the decline experienced in 2021/22. This
month’s changes to 2022/23 consumption include 1.0-million-bale reductions for China and
India, and smaller reductions for Pakistan, Turkey, and Vietnam. Projected world trade is cut
950,000 bales this month, with imports reduced for China, Turkey, and Vietnam. Exports are
reduced for Australia, Mali, Malaysia, India, and Brazil. World ending stocks are projected
2.3 million bales higher this month, and at 89.6 million bales are 4.1 million higher than in
2021/22.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and by the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook
Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency
Commodity Estimates Committees.
APPROVED BY:
SETH MEYER
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE DESIGNATE
WASDE-631-6
Note: The World Agricultural Outlook Board reviews and approves the World Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The Board’s analysts chair the Interagency Commodity
Estimates Committees (ICECs) that prepare the monthly report.
In 2023 the WASDE report will be released on Jan 12, Feb 8, Mar 8,
Apr 11, May 12, Jun 9, Jul 12, Aug 11, Sep 12, Oct 12, Nov 9, and Dec 8.
WASDE-631-7
T A B L E OF C O N T E N T S
Page
Highlights............................................................................................................. 1
Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees .................................................... 6
World & U.S. Supply & Use for Grains .................................................................. 8
World & U.S. Supply & Use for Cotton .................................................................. 9
World & U.S. Supply & Use for Oilseeds ............................................................ 10
U.S. Wheat Supply & Use .................................................................................. 11
U.S. Wheat Supply & Use by Class .................................................................... 11
U.S. Feed Grain & Corn Supply & Use ............................................................... 12
U.S. Sorghum, Barley & Oats Supply & Use ....................................................... 13
U.S. Rice Supply & Use ..................................................................................... 14
U.S. Soybeans & Products Supply & Use ........................................................... 15
U.S. Sugar Supply & Use ................................................................................... 16
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use ........................................................................... 16
U.S. Cotton Supply & Use .................................................................................. 17
World Wheat Supply & Use ................................................................................ 18
World Coarse Grains Supply & Use.................................................................... 20
World Corn Supply & Use .................................................................................. 22
World Rice Supply & Use ................................................................................... 24
World Cotton Supply & Use ................................................................................ 26
World Soybean Supply & Use ............................................................................ 28
World Soybean Meal Supply & Use .................................................................... 29
World Soybean Oil Supply & Use ....................................................................... 30
U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production .......................................................... 31
U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products .......................................................... 31
U.S. Meats Supply and Use ............................................................................... 32
U.S. Egg Supply & Use ...................................................................................... 33
U.S. Milk Supply and Use .................................................................................. 33
U.S. Dairy Prices ............................................................................................... 34
Reliability Tables................................................................................................ 35
Related USDA Reports ...................................................................................... 38
Metric Conversion Factors ................................................................................. 38
Electronic Access and Subscriptions ...................................................................... 40
December 2022
WASDE - 631 - 8
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of
export/import imbalances. 3/ Total use for the United States is equal to domestic consumption only (excludes exports). 4/
Wheat, coarse grains, and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet
and mixed grains).
December 2022
WASDE - 631 - 9
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of
export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains, and milled rice.
5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains.
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Includes mill use only. 4/ Total Foreign is equal to
world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances.
December 2022
WASDE - 631 - 10
Foreign 3/ Output
Total
Supply Trade
Total
Use 2/
Ending
Stocks
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total
Foreign is equal to World minus United States.
December 2022
WASDE - 631 - 11
Million Acres
Area Planted 90.7 93.3 88.6 88.6
Area Harvested 82.3 85.3 80.8 80.8
Bushels
Yield per Harvested Acre 171.4 176.7 172.3 172.3
Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks 1,919 1,235 1,377 1,377
Production 14,111 15,074 13,930 13,930
Imports 24 24 50 50
Supply, Total 16,055 16,333 15,357 15,357
Feed and Residual 5,607 5,717 5,300 5,300
Food, Seed & Industrial 2/ 6,467 6,767 6,725 6,725
Ethanol & by-products 3/ 5,028 5,326 5,275 5,275
Domestic, Total 12,074 12,484 12,025 12,025
Exports 2,747 2,471 2,150 2,075
Use, Total 14,821 14,956 14,175 14,100
Ending Stocks 1,235 1,377 1,182 1,257
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 4/ 4.53 6.00 6.80 6.70
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for
barley and oats. 2/ For a breakout of FSI corn uses, see Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the
Feed Grains Database at www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database.aspx. 3/ Corn processed in ethanol plants to
produce ethanol and by-products including distillers' grains, corn gluten feed, corn gluten meal, and corn oil. 4/ Marketing-
year weighted average price received by farmers.
December 2022
WASDE - 631 - 13
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum; June 1 for barley and
oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers.
December 2022
WASDE - 631 - 14
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not
included in estimates of ending stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2017/18-1.4; 2018/19-2.1; 2019/20-1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and
estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and
milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice
produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice
are estimated. 9/ The California medium/short-grain season-average- farm price (SAFP) largely reflects rice that is marketed through price pools in California. The
pool price is not final until all the rice in the pool is marketed for the crop year. Therefore, SAFP forecasts based on the average of NASS monthly prices and the final
price may differ. 10/ Marketing year beginning October 1.
December 2022
WASDE - 631 - 15
Million Acres
Area Planted 83.4 87.2 87.5 87.5
Area Harvested 82.6 86.3 86.6 86.6
Filler
Bushels
Yield per Harvested Acre 51.0 51.7 50.2 50.2
Million Bushels
Beginning Stocks 525 257 274 274
Production 4,216 4,465 4,346 4,346
Imports 20 16 15 15
Supply, Total 4,761 4,738 4,634 4,634
Crushings 2,141 2,204 2,245 2,245
Exports 2,266 2,158 2,045 2,045
Seed 101 102 102 102
Residual -4 2 22 22
Use, Total 4,504 4,465 4,414 4,414
Ending Stocks 257 274 220 220
Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/ 10.80 13.30 14.00 14.00
Total
Million Pounds
Beginning Stocks 1,853 2,131 1,999 1,991
Production 4/ 25,023 26,143 26,310 26,310
Imports 302 303 500 300
Supply, Total 27,177 28,578 28,809 28,601
Domestic Disappearance 23,314 24,813 25,650 25,600
Biofuel 3/ 8,920 10,348 11,800 11,600
Food, Feed & other Industrial 14,394 14,465 13,850 14,000
Exports 1,731 1,773 1,300 1,100
Use, Total 25,046 26,587 26,950 26,700
Ending stocks 2,131 1,991 1,859 1,901
Avg. Price (c/lb) 2/ 56.87 72.98 69.00 68.00
Total
Filler 1 2 3 4
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for
soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and soybean meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers;
oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; meal, simple average of 48 percent protein, Decatur. 3/ Reflects soybean oil used for
biofuels as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4/ Based on an October year crush of 2,207 million bushels for
2021/22 and 2,245 million bushels for 2022/23.
December 2022
WASDE - 631 - 16
1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Data and projections correspond to category components from "Sweetener Market Data"
(SMD). 2/ Production projections for 2021/22 and 2022/23 are based on Crop Production and/or processor
projections/industry data and/or sugar ICEC analysis where appropriate. 3/ For 2021/22, WTO raw sugar TRQ shortfall
(77) and for 2022/23 (255). 4/ Composed of sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 5/ Transfers
accompanying deliveries for sugar-containing products to be exported (SCP) and polyhydric alcohol manufacture (POLY),
and deliveries for livestock feed and ethanol. Total refiner license transfers for SCP and POLY inclusive of WASDE-
reported deliveries: 2020/21 -- 298; estimated 2021/22 -- 314; projected 2022/23 -- 315
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
Beginning Ending
Stocks Production Imports Domestic 2/ Exports Stocks
Pounds
Yield per Harvested Acre 853 819 855 868
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 7.25 3.15 3.75 3.75
Production 14.61 17.52 14.03 14.24
Imports 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 21.86 20.68 17.79 18.00
Domestic Use 2.40 2.55 2.30 2.20
Exports, Total 16.35 14.62 12.50 12.25
Use, Total 18.75 17.17 14.80 14.45
Unaccounted 2/ -0.04 -0.24 -0.01 0.05
Ending Stocks 3.15 3.75 3.00 3.50
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 66.3 91.4 85.0 85.0
Total
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals
may not add due to rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending
stocks. 3/ Cents per pound for upland cotton.
December 2022
WASDE - 631 - 18
Total Foreign Nov 81.89 102.40 43.22 112.65 30.70 -0.12 84.27
Dec 81.69 101.49 42.27 109.50 30.00 -0.12 86.06
Major Exporters 4/ Nov 32.41 59.12 2.30 32.66 26.57 -0.17 34.77
Dec 32.21 58.49 2.40 31.66 25.86 -0.17 35.75
Central Asia 5/ Nov 2.66 5.00 0.08 3.77 1.47 0.00 2.50
Dec 2.66 5.00 0.08 3.77 1.47 0.00 2.50
Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ Nov 1.71 5.54 3/ 0.10 5.40 0.00 1.76
Dec 1.61 5.42 3/ 0.10 5.19 0.00 1.74
S. Hemis. 7/ Nov 19.01 20.53 0.15 4.18 15.76 -0.18 19.94
Dec 19.01 20.03 0.15 4.18 15.36 -0.18 19.84
Australia Nov 4.86 5.50 3/ 0.01 6.20 -0.19 4.34
Dec 4.86 5.00 3/ 0.01 5.90 -0.19 4.14
filler filler filler filler filler filler filler
2022/23 Proj.
World 2/ Nov 94.67 390.53 166.28 329.28 380.17 169.14 102.17
Dec 95.59 391.17 166.21 329.32 380.88 169.38 102.71
World Less China Nov 62.88 372.13 68.28 233.28 263.58 169.04 70.67
Dec 63.80 372.77 68.21 233.32 264.29 169.28 71.21
United States Nov 7.45 118.27 0.41 61.10 64.48 55.66 5.99
Dec 7.45 118.27 0.41 61.10 64.48 55.66 5.99
Total Foreign Nov 87.22 272.26 165.87 268.18 315.69 113.49 96.17
Dec 88.14 272.90 165.80 268.22 316.40 113.72 96.72
Major Exporters 3/ Nov 47.39 214.00 5.57 95.28 106.29 104.88 55.79
Dec 47.85 214.00 5.57 95.33 106.36 105.28 55.79
Argentina Nov 23.90 49.50 4.80 39.75 47.00 7.20 24.00
Dec 23.90 49.50 4.80 39.75 47.00 7.70 23.50
Brazil Nov 23.34 152.00 0.75 51.75 55.35 89.50 31.24
Dec 23.81 152.00 0.75 51.75 55.35 89.50 31.71
Paraguay Nov 0.13 10.00 0.01 3.70 3.86 5.75 0.53
Dec 0.13 10.00 0.01 3.75 3.93 5.65 0.56
Major Importers 4/ Nov 34.19 21.82 132.38 125.10 153.73 0.33 34.32
Dec 34.65 21.82 132.03 124.80 153.43 0.37 34.70
China Nov 31.79 18.40 98.00 96.00 116.59 0.10 31.50
Dec 31.79 18.40 98.00 96.00 116.59 0.10 31.50
European Union Nov 1.13 2.47 14.80 15.20 16.78 0.22 1.40
Dec 1.55 2.47 14.40 14.90 16.48 0.25 1.69
Southeast Asia Nov 0.80 0.50 9.88 4.85 10.20 0.02 0.96
Dec 0.75 0.50 9.88 4.85 10.20 0.02 0.92
Mexico Nov 0.30 0.23 6.40 6.55 6.60 0.00 0.32
Dec 0.30 0.23 6.40 6.55 6.60 0.00 0.33
1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports
and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports.
Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. 4/ China, European Union, Japan,
Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand). Totals may not add due to rounding.
December 2022
WASDE - 631 - 29
2022/23 Proj.
World 2/ Nov 13.75 258.47 65.04 252.79 69.95 14.52
Dec 14.04 258.50 65.64 253.32 70.09 14.76
World Less China Nov 13.75 182.44 64.99 177.71 68.95 14.52
Dec 14.04 182.47 65.59 178.24 69.09 14.76
United States Nov 0.28 47.94 0.54 36.02 12.43 0.32
Dec 0.28 47.94 0.54 36.02 12.43 0.32
Total Foreign Nov 13.46 210.54 64.49 216.77 57.52 14.20
Dec 13.75 210.56 65.09 217.31 57.66 14.45
Major Exporters 3/ Nov 7.19 79.11 0.12 30.76 48.30 7.36
Dec 7.16 79.11 0.12 30.63 48.40 7.36
Argentina Nov 2.80 31.01 0.00 3.40 27.60 2.81
Dec 2.80 31.01 0.00 3.40 27.60 2.80
Brazil Nov 3.64 40.10 0.02 20.35 19.50 3.91
Dec 3.62 40.10 0.02 20.20 19.60 3.94
India Nov 0.75 8.00 0.10 7.01 1.20 0.65
Dec 0.74 8.00 0.10 7.03 1.20 0.62
Major Importers 4/ Nov 1.44 22.86 38.28 59.83 1.07 1.67
Dec 1.66 22.62 38.50 59.86 1.12 1.80
European Union Nov 0.42 12.01 16.80 27.94 0.75 0.54
Dec 0.64 11.77 16.80 27.84 0.80 0.57
Mexico Nov 0.13 5.18 1.85 6.95 0.01 0.20
Dec 0.18 5.18 1.85 6.95 0.01 0.24
Southeast Asia 5/ Nov 0.74 3.79 17.80 21.23 0.31 0.79
Dec 0.74 3.79 18.00 21.38 0.31 0.84
China Nov 0.00 76.03 0.05 75.08 1.00 0.00
Dec 0.00 76.03 0.05 75.08 1.00 0.00
1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports.
Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ European Union, Southeast Asia, and Japan. 5/
Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand. Totals may not add due to rounding.
December 2022
WASDE - 631 - 30
2022/23 Proj.
World 2/ Nov 4.42 61.87 11.68 60.39 12.66 4.93
Dec 4.56 61.88 11.56 60.51 12.62 4.87
World Less China Nov 4.18 44.67 10.68 42.59 12.57 4.37
Dec 4.32 44.67 10.56 42.71 12.53 4.31
United States Nov 0.91 11.93 0.23 11.64 0.59 0.84
Dec 0.90 11.93 0.14 11.61 0.50 0.86
Total Foreign Nov 3.52 49.94 11.45 48.75 12.07 4.08
Dec 3.66 49.94 11.42 48.90 12.12 4.00
Major Exporters 3/ Nov 1.44 21.41 0.60 12.62 9.28 1.56
Dec 1.39 21.37 0.58 12.63 9.33 1.38
Argentina Nov 0.53 7.86 0.00 2.38 5.50 0.51
Dec 0.52 7.86 0.00 2.38 5.50 0.50
Brazil Nov 0.36 9.97 0.10 7.83 2.10 0.50
Dec 0.36 9.97 0.08 7.83 2.15 0.43
European Union Nov 0.50 2.89 0.50 2.36 1.08 0.46
Dec 0.46 2.83 0.50 2.36 1.08 0.36
Major Importers 4/ Nov 0.66 20.67 6.69 26.74 0.21 1.06
Dec 0.82 20.72 6.65 26.87 0.21 1.11
China Nov 0.24 17.20 1.00 17.80 0.09 0.55
Dec 0.24 17.20 1.00 17.80 0.09 0.55
India Nov 0.10 1.80 3.35 5.10 0.02 0.14
Dec 0.24 1.80 3.35 5.20 0.02 0.17
North Africa 5/ Nov 0.24 1.13 1.59 2.59 0.11 0.27
Dec 0.26 1.19 1.55 2.62 0.11 0.28
1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World
imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports.
Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and European Union. 4/ China, India, Bangladesh, and North
Africa. 5/ Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. Totals may not add due to rounding.
December 2022
WASDE - 631 - 31
Year and Quarter Beef Pork Red Meat Broiler Turkey Total Red Meat Egg Milk
2/ Poultry 3/ & Poultry
Million Pounds Mil doz Bil lbs
2021 IV 7,106 7,185 14,341 11,193 1,366 12,689 27,030 2,371 55.4
Annual 27,948 27,675 55,815 44,899 5,558 50,995 106,810 9,238 226.3
2022 I 7,022 6,904 13,972 11,170 1,374 12,678 26,650 2,295 56.3
II 7,069 6,639 13,755 11,279 1,275 12,698 26,453 2,207 57.8
III 7,147 6,533 13,725 11,896 1,264 13,311 27,037 2,246 56.5
IV* 7,180 6,985 14,213 11,750 1,300 13,180 27,393 2,285 56.3
Annual
Nov Proj. 28,347 27,121 55,655 45,974 5,188 51,710 107,366 9,032 227.0
Dec Proj. 28,417 27,061 55,664 46,095 5,213 51,867 107,531 9,033 227.0
2023 I* 6,660 6,980 13,685 11,500 1,325 12,955 26,640 2,300 57.1
II* 6,600 6,505 13,150 11,575 1,380 13,090 26,240 2,340 58.5
III* 6,490 6,615 13,150 12,050 1,420 13,610 26,760 2,385 57.0
Annual
Nov Proj. 26,275 27,345 53,803 46,825 5,580 52,935 106,738 9,515 229.2
Dec Proj. 26,275 27,345 53,803 46,925 5,550 53,005 106,808 9,465 229.5
* Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/
Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken.
Pork 2021 467 27,690 1,180 29,337 7,026 446 21,865 51.1
2022 Proj. Nov 446 27,135 1,424 29,005 6,409 540 22,056 51.4
Dec 446 27,075 1,399 28,920 6,334 520 22,066 51.4
2023 Proj. Nov 540 27,360 1,410 29,310 6,280 570 22,460 52.1
Dec 520Filler
27,360
Filler
1,400Filler
29,280
Filler
6,280Filler
570Filler
22,430
Filler
52.1
Filler
Total Red 2021 1,217 55,906 4,890 62,014 10,470 1,147 50,397 111.5
Meat 5/ 2022 Proj. Nov 1,147 55,747 5,165 62,059 9,956 1,299 50,805 112.1
Dec 1,147 55,756 5,135 62,038 9,901 1,248 50,890 112.3
2023 Proj. Nov 1,299 53,895 5,125 60,318 9,354 1,237 49,728 109.5
Dec 1,248Filler
53,895
Filler
5,115Filler
60,258
Filler
9,374Filler
1,237
Filler
49,647
Filler
109.4
Filler
Broiler 2021 830 44,419 155 45,403 7,355 705 37,343 96.6
2022 Proj. Nov 705 45,482 187 46,374 7,212 830 38,332 98.8
Dec 705 45,602 187 46,493 7,262 840 38,391 99.0
2023 Proj. Nov 830 46,324 170 47,324 7,370 790 39,164 100.6
Dec 840Filler
46,423
Filler
180Filler
47,443
Filler
7,345Filler
830Filler
39,268
Filler
100.9
Filler
Total 2021 1,057 50,514 180 51,751 7,947 874 42,930 113.4
Poultry 6/ 2022 Proj. Nov 874 51,218 280 52,372 7,660 999 43,713 115.0
Dec 874 51,373 285 52,532 7,710 1,009 43,814 115.3
2023 Proj. Nov 999 52,433 276 53,708 7,819 964 44,925 117.9
Dec 1,009Filler
52,502
Filler
306Filler
53,817
Filler
7,794Filler
1,004
Filler
45,019
Filler
118.1
Filler
Red Meat & 2021 2,274 106,420 5,070 113,765 18,418 2,021 93,327 224.9
Poultry 2022 Proj. Nov 2,021 106,965 5,445 114,431 17,615 2,298 94,518 227.1
Dec 2,021 107,129 5,420 114,570 17,610 2,257 94,703 227.5
2023 Proj. Nov 2,298 106,328 5,401 114,027 17,173 2,201 94,653 227.4
Dec 2,257 106,397 5,421 114,075 17,168 2,241 94,667 227.5
1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less
condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis for red meat and broilers; certified ready-to-cook weight for turkey. 3/
Population source: Dept. of Commerce. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/
Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken.
December 2022
WASDE - 631 - 33
2020 2021 2022 Proj. 2022 Proj. 2023 Proj. 2023 Proj.
Commodity
Nov Dec Nov Dec
Eggs Million Dozen
Supply
Beginning Stocks 31.6 24.5 19.1 19.1 20.5 20.5
Production 9,291.8 9,237.8 9,032.0 9,032.8 9,515.0 9,465.0
Imports 15.5 18.2 22.7 22.0 19.5 19.5
Total Supply 9,338.9 9,280.5 9,073.9 9,074.0 9,555.0 9,505.0
Use
Exports 344.0 392.2 221.8 226.8 265.0 265.0
Hatching Use 1,078.5 1,103.9 1,124.0 1,119.0 1,150.0 1,150.0
Ending Stocks 24.5 19.1 20.5 20.5 21.0 21.0
Disappearance
Total 7,891.8 7,765.3 7,707.6 7,707.7 8,119.0 8,069.0
Per Capita (number) 285.5 280.5 277.6 277.7 291.5 289.7
Total
2020 2021 2022 Proj. 2022 Proj. 2023 Proj. 2023 Proj.
Commodity
Nov Dec Nov Dec
Milk Billion Pounds
Production 223.3 226.3 227.0 227.0 229.2 229.5
Farm Use 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1
Fat Basis Supply
Beginning Stocks 13.6 15.6 14.3 14.3 14.1 14.0
Marketings 222.2 225.2 225.9 225.9 228.1 228.5
Imports 6.8 6.5 7.0 7.3 7.1 7.2
Total Supply 242.6 247.4 247.2 247.6 249.3 249.6
Fat Basis Use
Exports 9.3 11.5 13.1 13.5 12.7 13.0
Ending Stocks 15.6 14.3 14.1 14.0 14.9 14.7
Domestic Use 217.8 221.5 220.0 220.1 221.6 222.0
Skim-solid Basis Supply
Beginning Stocks 10.2 10.9 11.1 11.1 11.2 11.1
Marketings 222.2 225.2 225.9 225.9 228.1 228.5
Imports 5.6 5.8 6.4 6.5 6.0 6.1
Total Supply 238.0 241.9 243.4 243.5 245.4 245.7
Skim-solid Basis Use
Exports 47.2 50.8 52.4 52.4 52.5 52.3
Ending Stocks 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.1 11.1 11.2
Domestic Use 179.9 180.0 179.8 180.0 181.8 182.2
Total
Dairy domestic use for 2020 includes additional milk marketed but not processed. Note: Totals may not add due to
rounding.
December 2022
WASDE - 631 - 34
2020 2021 2022 Proj. 2022 Proj. 2023 Proj. 2023 Proj.
Commodity
Nov Dec Nov Dec
Product Prices 1/ Dollars Per Pound
Cheese 1.9236 1.6755 2.100 2.110 1.970 1.995
Butter 1.5808 1.7325 2.845 2.875 2.455 2.465
Nonfat Dry Milk 1.0417 1.2693 1.680 1.680 1.405 1.375
Dry Whey
Filler
0.3621 0.5744 0.605 0.605 0.485 0.465
Dollars Per Cwt
Milk Prices 2/
Class III 18.16 17.08 21.80 21.95 19.65 19.80
Class IV 13.49 16.09 24.30 24.50 20.35 20.10
All Milk 3/ 18.13 18.53 25.50 25.65 22.60 22.70
All prices are January-December averages. 1/ Simple average of monthly prices calculated by AMS from weekly average
dairy product prices for class price computations. 2/ Annual Class III and Class IV prices are the simple averages of monthly
minimum Federal order milk prices paid by regulated plants for milk used in the respective classes. All milk price is the
simple average of monthly prices received by farmers for milk at average test. 3/ Does not reflect any deductions from
producers as authorized by legislation.
December 2022
WASDE - 631 - 35
The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and
other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports
issued by USDA’s Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. For more information on
how the WASDE report is prepared, go to: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde.
The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive
database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at
https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated
monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently.
Preliminary foreign production assessments and satellite imagery analysis used to prepare the WASDE
report are provided by the International Production Assessment Division (IPAD) of the Foreign Agricultural
Service. IPAD is located at https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/.
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For complete WASDE tables and previous month’s report visit
https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
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