International Institute of Business Analysis

Operational Planning Process (OPP)

and
“Mission Analysis”
at the
Strategic Level
Rob Kearney, MSM, CDS, MDS
[email protected]
“War Stories” on Strategy and
Operational Planning Process
Poor Strategy in Complex
Operations …
 Military Operational Planning
Process (OPP)
The aim of this brief is to familiarize IIBA
members with the fundamentals of the Military
Operational Planning Process and Mission
Analysis used by strategic military staffs.
 Desired Outcome
 Identify the phases of the Military Operational
Planning Process (OPP) and Mission Analysis.
 Describe the basic tenets of Mission
Command.
 Understand the Staff officers’ contribution to
OPP and Mission Analysis.
 Understand the linkage of OPP, Mission
Analysis, and Strategy.
 Structure of the Presentation
 Conceptual Background.
 The “5 x Ws” and “War Stories.
 The Operational Planning Process.
 Analysis of the Operational environment.
 Step 1. Guidance.
 Step 2. Mission Analysis.
 Step 3. Courses of Action Development.
 Step 4. Course of Action Analysis and Selection.
 Step 5. Develop Concept of Operations and Plan.
Mission Analysis verses Business Analysis
First: What is Business Analysis?
 Business analysis is the practice of
enabling change in an enterprise by
“defining needs” [desired effects] and
“recommending solutions” [courses of
action] that “deliver value” [achieve the
desired end-state] to “Stakeholders”
[Commanders and Headquarters].
 BABOK Guide
 What is Business Analysis?
(cont’d)
 Business analysis is performed on a variety
of initiatives within an [HQ, Unit] enterprise.
 Initiatives may be strategic, operational, or
tactical. [same as military]
 Business analysis may be performed within
the boundaries of a project [procurement]
or throughout enterprise evolution
[operations, missions, transformation] and
continuous improvement.
 BABOK Guide
 What is Business Analysis?
(cont’d)
 Business analysis can be used to
understand the current state [operations],
to define future state [future operations],
and to determine the activities required
[tasks] to move from the current to the
future state [evolution of mission].
 A “business analyst” [Staff Officer] is any
person who performs business analysis
tasks, regardless of their job title or
organizational role [mission first].
 BABOK Guide
Business Analysts – Not Magicians!
 What is Business Analysis?
(cont’d)
 A “business analyst” [Staff Officer] is
responsible for discovering, synthesizing,
and analyzing information from a variety of
sources [mission analysis] within the
enterprise [HQ, Unit, etc.].
 A “business analyst” [Staff Officer] plays a
key role in aligning the designed and
delivered solutions [concept of operations]
with the needs of stakeholders
[Commander, Staffs].
 BABOK Guide
 Conceptual Background
 What is Strategy?
 How do we formulate Strategy?
 Strategy Framework – What is it?
 Principles, Themes, & Tenets of Strategy.
 Operationalizing Strategy ...
 Strategic  Operational  Tactical Levels
 Risk Analysis and Management.
Strategy … Keep it simple,
and ensure it’s understood!
Strategy Formulation
 Strategy Framework

 Strategy is: the relationship

among ENDS, WAYS, and MEANS.
 Ends: objectives or goals sought.
 Means: resources available to pursue
objectives.
 Ways: methods are how one organizes
and applies the resources.
Strategy – Take the Time to Plan!
Principles of Strategic Planning
 Methodical Process leading to Optimal
Solutions.
 Should be:
 Comprehensive.
 Efficient.
 Inclusive.
 Informative.
 Integrated (with long term goals).
 Logical.
 Transparent.
 Themes of Strategic Planning
 Determine the nature of the problem and
what is to be achieved.
 Gather information.
 Generate options to achieve those goals.
 Decide on the way ahead and then execute
it. Who, What, Where, When, How, Why?
 Tenets of “Mission Command”

 Decentralized Command.
 Commander’s Intent.
 Initiative.
 Responsibility.
 Trust and Mutual Understanding.
 Operationalizing Strategy

 Decisive Operations.
 Shaping Operations.
 Sustainment Operations.
 Example of: Levels of Authority, Command
and Control in UN Peace Support Operations
 Risk

The combination of the impact and

likelihood for harm, loss or damage to the
Operation from the exposure to threats.
 Threats

A condition, event, or circumstance that

could lead to or contribute to an unplanned
or undesirable situation.
 Risk Management

The identification and assessment of

potential risks in a given Course of Action
with the view to minimizing, monitoring, and
controlling its probability and possibly
exploiting its inherent opportunities.
 Risk Management Principles

 Transference (to another party).

 Avoidance.
 Reduction.
 Acceptance.
 Exploitation.
 Risk Management Process
 Identify Threats.
 Assess Threats.
 Develop Control Measures.
 Disseminate Controls Measures.
 Monitor.
 Evaluate.
Risk Analysis – “SWOT”
 THE PLANNING PROCESS
 Analysis of the Operational environment
 Step 1. Guidance.
 Step 2. Mission Analysis.
 Step 3. Courses of Action Development.
 Step 4. Course of Action Analysis and
Selection.
 Step 5. Develop Concept of Operations and
Plan.
Analysis of the Operational
Environment
Strategic Overview
 Analysis of the Operational
Environment
 Description of the Operational Environment.
 Describe the Environment.
 Analyse the Terrain.
 Describe the Effects on Operations.
 Threat Evaluation.
 Conflict Parties.
 Internal Dynamics.
 External Interest.
 Step 1. GUIDANCE

 Collect all guidance, direction, and

communication information.
 Study initial assessment of the Operational
Environment.
 Prepare/Update Staff Estimates.
 Conduct Quick Time Estimate.
 Issue Initial Warning Order to Staff.
Collection of Guidance Materials
 Strategic/Operational Estimates.
 Technical Assessment Reports.
 Senior Leadership Reports.
 “Rules of Engagement.”
 Integrated Strategic Framework.
 Mission Concept.
 Strategic Directives and Concepts.
 National Caveats and Guidelines.
 Input from other Programmes and Agencies.
 Strategic Estimates and the
Operational Planning Process
Sample Format for Staff Estimates
 Mission (Given by higher Headquarters).
 Higher Commander’s Intent.
 Situation.
 Characteristics of Area of Operation.
 Conflict Parties.
 Mission Component Composition (WoG).
 Lead Agency/Nation.
 Other Govt and Non-Govt Agencies.
 Assumptions.
 Sample Format for Staff
Estimates (continued)
 Analysis.
 Each Course of Action (COA).
 “Troops” or Resources to Task.
 Comparison.
 Conclusions.
 Recommendations.
 Issue a “Warning Order” to Staffs & HQs to
ensure concurrent planning activity.
 Sample Time Estimate

OPP
 Step 2. Mission Analysis

 Mission Analysis is an important planning

tool that guides the OPP.
 It helps the Command and Staff elements to
refine their “Situational Awareness” (SA)
and understanding in order to have better
visualisation of the operational environment.
 Process Output

1. Review AOE 1. Re-stated Mission

2. Analyse Higher HQ Msn/Intent 2. Commander’s Intent

3. Identify Specified Implied, 3. Commander’s Guidance

and Essential Tasks
4. Warning Order No.2
4. Determine Constraints and
Restrictions 5. Risk Assessment Chart

5. Conduct Operational Risk 6. Updated Staff Estimate

Assessment
7. Mission Analysis Brief
6. Troops to Task Assessment

6. Identify and Analyse Critical Facts

and Assumptions
 Higher Command Intent
 Must understand the purpose of the operation and
the key effects.

 Must understand the key tasks.

 Must understand the commanders “Scheme of
Manoeuvre” (SOM) and “synchronization of effects.”

 Identifies your role in the Comd’s plan and the

Comd’s action during the execution.
 Categorization of Tasks

 Specified Tasks – Stated tasks in Concept of

Operations linked to Strategic Effect.
 Implied Tasks – Those task that need to be
performed to accomplish a Specified Task, but
which are not specifically ordered.
 Essential Tasks – Those Specified and/or
Implied task(s) that must be carried out in order
to accomplish the assigned mission.
 Operational Limitations

 Constraints – ‘Must do’ actions.

 Restraints – ‘Must not do’ actions.
 Caveats – Restrictions attached to the
deployment of troops or employment of
resources.
 Critical Facts & Critical Info
Requirements
 Facts are statements of known data or actual
or existing circumstances of the operational
environment including the Conflict Parties’ and
the mission components’ strengths,
dispositions, resources etc.
 Critical facts are therefore those facts that
need to be analysed because of their crucial
importance in determining the state of affairs in
the mission.
 Assumptions
Assumptions
 State essential conditions, which must
exist if a specific plan is to succeed.
 Take the place of facts.
 Must be valid and necessary.
 Regularly validated.
 Five Elements of a Mission
Statement
 Who – The “Unit” (Lead) to execute the action.
 What – The task(s) or actions to be performed.
 When – The action will begin.
 Where – The action will occur.
 Why – (For what purpose) each Unit (Lead) will
conduct its part to support the plan.
 Commanders Intent

Must be understood two-levels down in the

organizatio and contain:
 Clear and concise statement of the
success criteria and desired End-State.
 Key tasks that become the basis for
planning.
Mission Analysis Brief – Purpose

 To integrate the mission analysis.

 Seek approval of the re-stated Mission
Statement.
 Obtain additional guidance from the Comd.
Confused Yet?
 Step3. COURSE OF ACTION
DEVELOPMENT
Inputs Process Output Remarks

1. Adversary’s 1. Review Comd’s 1. Prepare COA

COAs Planning Statements /
Guidance Graphics
2. Staff
Estimates 2. Analyse Centre 2. COA
of Gravity Development Brief
3. Restated
Mission 3. Generate
Options
4. Comd’s
Guidance / Intent 4. Develop the
Scheme of
Manoeuvre
 Centre of Gravity

A characteristic, capability or locality from

which the force derives its freedom of
action, strength or will to engage in the
operation.
 Elements of Centre of Gravity

 Critical Capabilities.
 Critical Vulnerabilities.
 Critical Requirements.
 Criteria
 Suitability – will it result in Mission
accomplishment?
 Feasibility – achievable within allocated
resources?
 Acceptability – accepted doctrine, risk, etc.
 Exclusivity – different from other COAs?
 Completeness – answers the 5W questions?
 Scheme of Manoeuvre
 Description of how the Comd’s intent is
expressed in the deployment of Military
Assets, and/or Govt and Non-Govt orgs
under his command (and/or control and/or
coordination) to accomplish the mission.
 Step 4. Course of Action Analysis
and Selection
Inputs Process Output Remarks
1. Adversary’s COA 1. Conduct COA 1. COA Testing
Testing Results
2. COA sketches (Wargaming)
2. Task
3. Staff Estimates 2. Conduct COA Organization
Evaluation and
4.List of assumptions Comparison 3. CCIR confirmed
5.List of Critical 4. Control
Events Measures
6. Risk Management 5. Decision Brief
Chart
6. Synch Matrix
7. ROE
7. Warning Order
 COA Testing Guidelines

 Remaining objective and impartial.

 Continuous verification each COA’s
credibility.
 Avoiding premature conclusions.
 Each COA to be tested against each Conflict
Party’s COA.
 Comparison
COA Advantages Disadvantages
1 Surprise Potential loss of
domestic and
Less employment of robust capabilities international support
May compromise inter –
agency cooperation

2 Affords flexibility Lacks Long-term

sustainability
Provides Initiative
Vulnerability of forward
Strengthens moral authority of UN deployed forces
forces
Highly dependent on
Host Nation Support

3 Strong moral authority and international Loses military initiative

acceptance
Potentially attritional
Domestically popular
COA Evaluation – Comd’s Choice
Serial CRITERIA (“Weight”) COA1 COA2
1 Consent (3) 3 2
2 Impartiality (4) 4 4
3 Non-Use of Force (3) 3 2
4 Legitimacy (5) 5 3
5 Credibility (4) 4 3
6 ROE (4) 4 3
7 Risk Management (3) 3 2
Totals 20 19
 Step 5. DEVELOPMENT OF
CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS & PLAN
Inputs Process Output Remarks

1. Selected 1. Develop 1. CONOPS

COA (s) CONOPS

2. Produce 2. Plan
Plan
3. Draft
3. Develop Contingency
Draft Plans
Contingency
Plans
 Elements of Concept of
Operations
 Intent.
 Scheme of Manoeuvre.
 Main Effort.
 End State.
 Does it support the Strategic Effect Desired.
 Characteristics of the Plan

 Clear.
 Concise.
 Complete.
 Authoritative.
 Headings of the Plan
 BACKGROUND
 CURRENT SITUATION
 Conflict Parties.
 Own Forces.
 Assumptions.
 Limitations and Constraints.
 MISSION
 EXECUTION
 Concept of Operations.
 Tasks.
 Coordinating Instructions.
 INTEGRATED SUPPORT SYSTEM (ISS)
 Mentoring Brief Summary
Recap the 5 x Steps in OPP
 Step 1. Guidance
 Step 2. Mission Analysis
 Step 3. Courses of Action Development
 Step 4. Course of Action Analysis and
Selection
 Step 5. Develop Concept of Operations and
Plan.
Questions?