Exercise on Probability Theory (for classroom discussion)

1. In a study of 100 students who has been awarded university scholarships,

it was found that 40 had part-time jobs, 25 had made the dean’s list of the
previous semester, and 15 had both a part-time job and had made the dean’s
list. What was the probability that a student had a part-time job or was on the
dean’s list?

2. A survey of the subscribers to Fortune Newspaper should that 54% rented

a car in the past 12 months for business reasons, 51% rented a car for personal
reasons, and 72% rented a car for either business or personal reasons.

a. What is the probability a subscriber rented a car in the past 12

months for business reasons and for personal reason?
b. What is the probability that a subscriber did not rent a car in the
past 12 months?
c. What is the probability a subscriber rented a car for business
reasons only during the past 12 months?

2D. During winter in Addis, Mr. Alex experiences difficulty in starting his two
cars. The probability that the first car starts is 0.8, and the probability that the
second car starts is 0.4. There is a probability of 0.3 that both cars start.
a. What is the probability that at least one car starts?
b. What is the probability that Mr. Alex cannot start either of the two cars?

Exercise 3D. . According to Nielson Media Research, approximately 67% of all

U.S. households with television have cable TV. Seventy four percent of all U.S.
households with television have two or more TV sets. Suppose 55% of all US
households with television have cable TV and two or more TV sets. A U.S.
household with television is randomly selected.
a. What is the probability that the household has cable TV or two or more
TV sets?
b. What is the probability that the household has cable TV or two or more
TV sets but not both?
c. What is the probability that the household has neither cable TV nor two or
more TV sets?
Exercise 4D. The Texas oil company provides a limited partnership arrangement
whereby small investors can pool resources in order to invest in large-scale oil
exploration programs. In the exploratory drilling phase, locations for new wells
are selected based on the geologic structure of the proposed drilling sites.
Experience shows that there is a 0.4 probability of a type A structure present at
the site given a productive well. It is also known that 50% of all wells are drilled
in locations with type A structure. Finally, 30% of all wells drilled are productive.
a. What is the probability of a well being drilled in a type A structure and
being productive?
b. If the drilling process begins in allocation with a type A structure, what is
the probability of having a productive well at the location?
c. Is finding a productive well independent of the type A geologic
structure? Explain.

Exercise 5D. The results of a survey asking, do you have a calculator and/or a
computer in your home? Are as follows:

Calculator
Yes NO
Yes
46 3
49
Computer NO 11 15
26

57 18 75

Is the variable calculator independent of the variable computer? Why or why

not?

Classification of the Probabilities

1. Suppose that Reader’s Digest mails out announcements of a content of 50,000

different people, stating that a grand-prize winner will be selected at random
from the list of 50,000 people. What is the probability that a grand-prize
winner will be selected?
2. A survey of automobile ownership was conducted for 200 families in Addis.
The results of the study showing ownership of automobiles of Toyota and
other brands are summarized as follows;
 Do you own another Do you own a TOYOTA? Total
brand?
Yes No Yes No
30 10 40
150 10 160
Total 180 20 200
a. Show the joint probability table for the above data.
b. What is the probability that a family will own both a Toyota and another
car?
c. What is the probability that a family will own another car but not a
Toyota?
3. A nightclub has the following data on the age and marital status of 140
customers.

Marital Status
Single Married
Age Under 30 77 14
30 or over 28 21

a. Develop a joint probability table using this table.

b. Use the marginal probabilities to comment on the age of customers
attending the club.
c. Use the marginal probabilities to comment on the martial status
customers attending the club.
d. What is the probability of finding a customer who is single and
under the age of 30?

4. For the following two requirements refer back to question number 2 and for
the last one refer back to question number 3.
a. If a family owns a Toyota, what is the probability that is also owns
another car?
b. If the family owns another car, what is the probability that is also
owns a Toyota?
c. If a customer is under 30, what is the probability that he or she is
single?

5. Suppose that a store has received a shipment of 60 television sets, 5 of which

are defective. On the following day, 2 televisions are sold.
a. Find the probability that both of the televisions are defective.
 b. Find the probability that the first television sold defective and the
second is not defective.

6. The following contingency table is based on observing a random sample of n = 200

individuals who entered a gift store at an airline terminal.
Result of Visit
Purchase No Purchase
Sex Male 40 40
Female 40 80

a. Develop a joint probability table using this table based on the

observed data.
b. What is the probability that a randomly selected individual is
female?
c. What is the probability that a randomly selected individual is
female and male a purchase?
d. What is the probability that a randomly selected individual is
female or male a purchase?
e. What is the probability that a randomly selected individual is
female given that a purchase was made?
f. What is the probability that a purchase was made given that the
randomly selected individual is female?
g. Are the events “female” and purchaser” independent events?

7. In a survey of MBA students, the following data were obtained on “students”

first reason for application to the school in which they matriculated”

Reason for Application School cost or

School Convenience Other TOTAL
Quality
Enrollment Full time 421 393 76 890
Status Part time 400 593 46 1039
TOTAL 821 986 122 1929

a. Develop a joint probability table using this data.

b. Use the marginal probabilities of school quality, cost/convenience,
and other to comment on the most important reason for choosing a
school
 c. If a student goes full time, what is the probability school quality
will be the first reason for choosing a school?
d. If a student goes part time, what is the probability school quality
will be the first reason for choosing a school/
e. Let A be the event that a student is full-time and let B be the event
that the student lists school quality as the first reason for applying.
Are the events A and V independent? Justify your answer.

8. A sample of 200 executive responses of an industry was taken to determine

whether industry type is independent of geographic location.

Industry Geographic Location

Type
(A) Northeast (D) Southeast (E) Midwest (F) West (G)
(B) Finance 24 10 8 14
(C) Manufacturing 30 6 22 12
Communications 28 18 12 16

a. What is the probability that an executive is employed in southeast

and manufacturing/
b. What is the probability that an executive is in finance given that
he/she is located in West?
c. What is the probability that an executive is located in Northeast
given that he/she is in communications?
d. Is industry type independent of geographic location?
9. A doctor said that the probability that a patient will die if he does not go
abroad is 0.65. What is the probability that a patient will not die if he does not
go abroad?

10. The proprietor of a men’s clothing store has recorded the buying behavior of
customers over a long period of time. He has established that the probability
that a customer will buy a shirt is about 0.4. A customer buys a tie 50% of the
time when a shirt is purchased. Find the probability that customer will buy
the following:

a. A shirt and a tie

b. A tie
 c. A shirt or tie
d. A shirt but not a tie

11. A sales person has a policy of calling up on a customer a second time if she
does not make the sale on the first call, and trying a third, and last time, if she
fails on the first two calls. She has a probability of a sale on the first call of 0.3.
if she fails on the first call, the probability of a sale on the second call is 0.2. If
the first two calls are unsuccessful, her probability of success on the third call
is 0.1. What is the probability that she makes the sale to a given customer?
12. A particular type of printer ribbon is produced only by two companies:
Alamo Ribbon Company and South Jersey Products. Suppose that Alamo
produces 65% of the ribbons and that South Jersey Produces 35%. Eight
present of the ribbons produced by Alamo are defective and 12% of the South
Jersey ribbons are defective. A customer purchases a now ribbon.
a. What is the probability that Alamo produce the ribbon?
b. What is the probability the South Jersey Produced the ribbon?
The ribbon is tested, and it is defective Now,
c. What is the probability that Alamo produced the ribbon?
d. What is the probability the South jersey produced the ribbon/

13. Machines A, B, and C all produce the same two parts, X and Y, of the parts
produced, machine. A produces 60%, machine B produces 30%, and machine
C produces 10%.
40% of the parts made by machine A are part X.
50% of the parts made by machine B are part X.
70% of the parts made by machine C are part X.
A part produced by this company is randomly sampled and is determined to be
an X part. With the knowledge that it is an X part, revise the probabilities that
part came from machine A, B, or C.

14. A foreman for an injection-molding firm admits that, on 10% of his shifts, he
forgets to shut off the injection machine on his line. This causes the machine
to overheat and increases the chance that a defective molding will be
produced during the early morning run from 0.55 to 55. if the plant manager
randomly selects a molding from the morning run finds it to be defective,
what is the probability that the foreman forgot to shut off the machine the
previous night?
Example 1D.
Suppose a manufacturer of Automobile batteries produces two types of batteries
(regular and heavy duty) at each of three plants (A, B and C). Plant A produces
300 batteries a day, 200 of which are regular, and 100 heavy duty. Plant B
Produces 200 batteries each day,50 regular and 150 heavy duty. Plant C produces
50 batteries of each type a day. What is the probability that a randomly selected
heavy-duty battery came from plant B?

Example2D A small independent physicians’ practice has three doctors. Doctor

sarabia sees 41% of the patients, Doctor Tran sees 32% and Doctor Jackson sees
the rest. . Doctor sarabia requests blood tests on 5% of her patients, and Doctor
Jackson requests blood tests on 6% of her patients. An auditor randomly selects a
patient from the past week and discovers that the patient has had a blood test as
a result of his physician visit. Knowing this, what is the probability that the
patient saw Doctor sarabia?

Example3D. According to the public voice for food and health policy,
approximately 27%of all soup products in a recent year did not carry
nutritional labeling. Approximately 83% of breakfast meats and about 59%of hot
dog products did not have nutritional labeling. Assume that if these three groups
of foods were combined, 60% would be soup products, 35% would be break fast
meats, and 5% would be hot dogs. A researcher is blindly given a food product
from one of these groups and is told that the product does have nutritional
labeling. Revise the probabilities that the product is a soup product, breakfast
meat, and a hot dog product.