Origo Commodity Year Book 2023

COMMODITY YEARBOOK 2023
Table of Contents
S. No. INTRODUCTION Page No.
1) Life of a Super-cycle 6
2) Commodities Price Performance During 2001-2012 Bull Run 6
3) Commodity Heat-Map 7
How Agri Prices Performed in 2022 7
How Metals & Energies Prices Performed in 2022 7
4) Monsoon in India 7
All India Monsoon Rainfall Departure 8
S. No. COTTON Page No.

1) Brief Introduction 9
Role of Cotton in the Indian Economy 9
2) World Supply Trend 9
3) World Demand Trend 10
4) World Trade Trend 10
Imports 10
Exports 10
Ending Stocks 10
5) Price Trend 10
History since 1970 10
Historical Prices - Cotton MCX 11
Historical Prices - Cotton Shankar Kapas 11
Historical Prices - Cotton Bengal Desi 11
Historical Prices - Cotton S-6 11
Price Seasonality 11
Crop Balance Sheet – Cotton (in MMT) 12
Crop Balance Sheet – Cotton (in US Bales) 12
India Cotton State-Wise Area, Yield and Production 12
Crop Balance Sheet - Cotton (in Indian Bales) 12
Average Cotton Consumption in India (in Lakh Bales) 13
Cotton Imports in India 13
Cotton Exports in India 13
S. No. CORN Page No.

Importance of Corn in the Indian Economy 14
Exports 15
Imports 15
Ending Stock 15
5 Price Trend 16
Historical Prices - Maize Gulabbagh 16
Historical Prices - Maize Nizamabad 16
Crop Seasonality 16
Crop Balance Sheet – Maize (in MMT) 17
India Maize Imports 17
India Maize Exports 18
S. No. RICE Page No.

Importance of Rice in the Indian Economy 19
Exports 20
Imports 21
Ending Stock 21
5) Price Trend 21
Historical Prices - Rice - 1121 Sella White - Bundi 21
Historical Prices - Rough Rice CBOT 21
Page 2 of 103
© Origo Commodities India Private Limited | All rights reserved
Crop Seasonality 21
Crop Balance Sheet – Rice (in MMT) 22
India Non-Basmati Exports 22
India Basmati Exports 22
S. No. WHEAT Page No.

Importance of Wheat in the Indian Economy 24
Exports 25
Imports 25
5) Ending Stock 25
Price Trend 25
Historical Prices - Wheat Delhi 26
Historical Prices – Wheat Kanpur 26
Crop Seasonality 26
Crop Balance Sheet – Wheat (in MMT) 27
India Wheat Imports 27
India Wheat Exports 27
S. No. PALM OIL Page No.

Ending Stocks 30
5) Price Trend 30
The Year 2021 & 2022 30
Historical Prices – CPO BMD 31
Historical Prices – CPO Kandla 31
Crop Balance Sheet - Palm Oil (in MMT) 31
Malaysia Palm Oil Production (in MMT) 32
Malaysia Palm Oil Exports (in MMT) 32
S. No. GROUNDNUT Page No.

Main varieties of groundnut produced in India 33
5) Price Trend 34
Historical Prices - Groundnut Expeller Junagarh 34
Historical Prices - Groundnut Shell Junagarh 34
Crop Seasonality 34
India Major Groundnut Producers 35
India Total Oilseeds and Oil Supply 35
S. No. MUSTARD Page No.

World 36
India 37
5) Price Trend 38
Historical Prices - Mustard Jaipur 38
Historical Prices – Mustard Alwar 38
Crop Seasonality 38
State-Wise Top 5 Mustard Producing Districts in India 39
Crop Balance Sheet – Mustard Meal, Mustard Oil and Mustard Seed (in MMT) 39
Page 3 of 103
S. No. SOYBEANS COMPLEX Page No.

Importance of soybean in the Indian Economy 40
SOYBEANS
India 41
4) Price Trend 42
SOYBEAN OIL
4) Price Trend 43
SOYBEAN MEAL
4) Price Trend 45
Historical Prices - Soybean CBOT 45
Historical Prices – Soybean Indore 45
Historical Prices - Soybean Oil Indore 45
Historical Prices - Soybean Meal Indore 45
Crop Seasonality 45
Crop Balance Sheet – Soybean, Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil (in MMT) 46
India Meals Exports (in MMT) 47
India Soybean State-Wise Area, Yield and Production 47
S. No. CHICKPEAS Page No.

Importance of Pulses in Indian Economy 48
India 48
Imports 49
Exports 49
5) Price Trend 49
Historical Prices - Chana (Rajasthan) Delhi 49
Historical Prices - Chana (MP) Delhi 49
Crop Seasonality 50
India Chickpeas Imports 50
India Chickpeas Exports 50
S. No. LENTILS Page No.

India 51
Exports 52
Imports 52
5) Price Trend 52
Historical Prices – Masoor Indore 52
Crop Seasonality 52
India Lentil Imports 52
India Lentil Exports 53
S. No. CUMIN SEED Page No.

2) World 54
India 54
Page 4 of 103
3) Trade 54
4) Price Trend 54
Historical Prices – Jeera Unjha 55
Historical Prices – Jeera Jodhpur 55
Crop Seasonality 55
India Cumin Imports 55
India Cumin Exports 55
S. No. CORIANDER Page No.

2) Production 56
Exports 56
3) Price Trend 56
Historical Prices – Coriander Ramganjmandi 56
Historical Prices – Coriander Neemuch 56
Crop Seasonality 57
India Coriander Imports 57
India Coriander Exports 57
S. No. TURMERIC Page No.

2) Seasonality 58
Production 58
3) Trade 58
4) Price Trend 58
Historical Prices – Turmeric Nizamabad 58
Historical Prices – Turmeric Sangli 58
Crop Seasonality 59
India Turmeric Imports 59
India Turmeric Exports 59
S. No. COMMODITY PRICE TREND Page No.

1) India Agri Commodities Price Trend 1 60
India Agri Commodities Price Trend 2 64
India Metals and Energies Price Trend 65
2) Currencies Price Trend 66
3) International Commodities Price Trend 68
4) Commodities Correlation with US Dollar Index 69
5) Ratio Trend Palm Oil 70
S. No. OTHERS Page No.

1) Arrivals 71
2) Crop Insurance in India 73
3) MSP 75
4) Advance Estimates of Production of Oilseeds and Commercial Crops for 2022-23 76
Advance Estimates of Production of Food grains for 2022-23 76
5) Origo Kharif Crop Production Estimate 2022 77
Origo Kharif Crop Analysis 2022 79
6) Appendix 93
7) Government Wheat & Rice Stocks 100
Government Wheat Procurement 100
8) Import Tariffs on Grains and Pulses Products 100
9) Crop Yield 100
10) Profile of Authors 102
11) About Origo 103
Page 5 of 103
Introduction
Life of a Super Cycle
Last time, Commodities were in a long bull run from 2001 to 2012. During this period, agriculture,
metals, and energy prices shot to record highs except in 2008-2009. 2008-2009 was a historic year
known for the global recession triggered by the fallout of the Lehman Brothers due to the
subprime crises. Prices, initially, went through the steepest correction across all the asset classes,
the only exception was bullion.
The rest of the world declared the recession soon after the U.S. announcement. But later, the injection of liquidity or stimulus by the world's central banks to
revive the economy paved the way for V-shape recovery. Prices, which tumbled between 50-70%, returned to the pre-recession level or even higher, barring a
few commodities. The 2001-2012 bull run can be divided into two parts. One Pre-recession period and the second Post-recession. Pre-recession was 2001-
2008 & Post was 2009-2012. There was a time during Pre-recession and Post-recession periods when we just had to enter a buy order function in the FT Odin
trading terminal for buying the commodity. After we could have gone for a vacation for a week, trade was always in profits, and even if prices dropped, simply
buy again to average or leave for a couple of days, buy trades would be in profits for sure. The probability of the upside move was pretty strong during the
bull run.
When we talk about Commodity Super-cycle or Bull-run, it is necessary to know the longevity of the Bull-run in the commodity segment. The following graph
will able to understand this:
Major Bull Runs since 1970
11 Years
4 Years 4 Years
3 Years 3 Years
3 Years
1971-74 1977-80 1986-88 1992-96 2001-12 2020 - 2022

Source: Origo e-Mandi Research
Among above last bull run (2001-2012) lasted, more than average bull run duration, for 11 odd years while before this run just lasted 3-4 years, and latest
bull run that started in 2020 seems to have ended in 2022 as most commodities have lost their shine and have returned to mean value. But looming
recessionary fear and slowing global economies will have positive repercussions on the prices of gold as a safe haven, which we have already started
witnessing in the last quarter of 2022.
On the very first day of my work journey in the Commodity Market as a researcher in June 2005, I was gifted Hot Commodities Book by one of my mentors
who is a successful trader in India. The book was authored by celebrity Commodity Guru Sir Jim Rogers and published in 2004. Hot Commodities Book
changed my work life at the beginning of my work career. Some of the book's lines are still in my heart. These are “a current bull market is underway, and this
time it is commodities which are the essentials of not just your life but the lives of everyone in the cosmos. Every time we walk into the mall, we are
surrounded by commodities that are traded around the world. When we get into the car, motorcycle, or truck, we are surrounded by other widely traded
commodities. These essentials are wheat, corn, cotton, rice, soybean, palm, mustard, sugar, coffee, cocoa, rubber, oil & natural gas, gold, silver, aluminum,
copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and steel. The list is very wide, may go from 80 to 100. While reading this book I first came to know the CRB-Commodity Year Book,
which Jim Rogers Sir called the bible of commodity traders, and this is a reality. I was so curious to read and learn from the CRB book that I spent half of my
first-month salary buying CRB-Commodity Year Book 2005, and that was a life-changing book for me, given the enormous amount of knowledge in a few
days of reading. Thanks to my mentor for giving a Hot Commodities Book, which I gifted to more than 1000 of my clients and professional colleagues.
Coming back to the main topic, during the last bull run from 2001 to 2012, commodities have gained manifold, following table helps us in understanding
performance:
Commodities Price Performance during 2001-2012 Bull-Run (in USD)
Silver WT Crude Gold Copper Crude Palm Oil Natural Gas Cotton
Low 4.13 17.80 271.70 0.66 1136.00 2.45 34.91
High 49.82 147.27 1923.70 4.65 4486.00 15.78 219.70
Gain 1107% 727% 608% 605% 295% 544% 529%
Sugar Soybean Oil Soybean Coffee Rough Rice (CBOT) Corn Wheat
Low 6.90 15.41 420.00 44.75 3.43 185.75 255.50
High 36.08 72.69 1789.00 308.90 24.68 843.75 1334.50
Gain 423% 372% 326% 590% 281.98% 268% 233%
Page 6 of 103
The Years 2021 and 2022
The year 2021 was another best year for the commodities except for supplies. Natural gas and crude oil slumped on easing supply concerns.
bullion which went sluggish on high-risk appetite and the likelihood of a Cotton plummeted on higher India’s crop size, easing global supplies and
rate hike cycle. Logistic, supply-side issues, robust pent-up demand, and looming recessionary fear in the world. Barring jeera, rice and wheat, most
better economic growth prospects fuel the Bull-Run despite the uptrend in of the commodities reversed the move seen in the first half. Gold and silver
the US dollar Index as commodities have a negative correlation with USD were non-performer during the first 9-Month of 2022 as the historic faster
in normal market conditions. We saw new record highs in Cotton, Soybean, pace of a rate hike by the U.S. Fed and the soaring US dollar impacted the
Crude Palm Oil, Mustard, Copper, Aluminum, Lithium, Magnesium, Cobalt, prices negatively. But in the last quarter of 2022, the dollar started falling in
Tin, Molybdenum, Neodynium, Indium, Germanium, Gallium, and Zinc. WTI expectation of a slower pace of a rate hike in 2023 that paved the way for a
Crude Oil, which changed the long perception of commodities that share recovery in the gold and silver prices.
price value can go to Zero but commodity prices cannot go as it has
intrinsic value, did have a rocking performance in 2021. In 2020 during the
first lockdown when the entire movement in the world halted for months,
WTI crude oil prices slipped to -$40.32 a barrel first time in history and
settled in negative at -$37.65 on April 20, 2020, as no storage left in the
US, becoming a route cause of bankruptcy of Energy-based hedge funds.
The first half of 2022 was the continuation of a bull-run as prices of most
commodities spiked on supply constraints. Soybean spiked to multi-year
high on the lower crops from south America due to drought. Palm oil
jumped to a record high underpinned by the flood in Malaysia in January
2022 and later sunflower oil supply concern was exacerbated by the
Ukraine-Russia War. Nickel, Natural Gas, Crude oil, Jeera, and cotton were
part of a rally stoked by supply disruption or lower crop size. But in the
second half of 2022, oil and oilseeds returned back on account of higher
Commodity Heat-map
How Agri Prices Performed in 2022 (in Percentage)
JEERA DHANIYA WHEAT BARLEY BAJRA GROUNDNUT EXPELLER

90.97 41.38 33.64 26.18 24.32 23.53
MAIZE TUR GUARGUM CASTORSEED PADDY BASMATI REFINED SOYOIL
22.45 21.31 20.37 19.17 14.69 10.85
RICE COTTON SEED WASHED OIL URAD GUARSEED CHANA COTTON SEED OILCAKE
10.67 5.58 3.08 0.84 0.098 -5.61
MASOOR YELLOW PEAS KACCHI GHANI OIL MUSTARD SEED SOYBEAN KAPAS
-7.09 -7.56 -9.33 -9.46 -10.55 -13.76
COTTON MUSTARD OILCAKE TURMERIC SOYMEAL CPO RBD PALM OLIEN
-13.86 -14.47 -16.47 -18.64 -19.69 -24.42
How Metals & Energies Prices Performed in 2022 (in Percentage)
LITHIUM NICKEL NATURAL GAS IRON ORE PLATINUM TIN

90.58 62.98 19.97 15.25 12.08 9.77
STEEL WTI CRUDE OIL MOLYBDENUM SILVER COBALT GOLD
7.44 6.71 3.40 2.95 2.64 -0.13
MANGANESE LEAD ALUMINIUM PALLADIUM ZINC INDIUM
-2.16 -5.00 -5.84 -5.97 -6.10 -8.90
RHODIUM NEODYNIUM COPPER GALLIUM GERMANIUM MAGNESIUM
-11.18 -13.22 -14.57 -14.64 -15.37 -54.23
Monsoon in India
Monsoon can be termed as the life-blood of India’s farm-dependent economy. Around 52% of the crop-growing areas fall under rain-fed conditions in India.
Hence, any fluctuation in the monsoon rainfall affects the agriculture and economy of the country. India gets around 70% of its annual rainfall during the
monsoon season. Monsoon determines the yield of several grains and pulses, including rice, wheat, and sugarcane. The importance of monsoon is evident
from the fact that India produces over 50% of the total food grain and 67% of the total oilseeds in the Kharif season. Monsoon is also crucial for rabi crops as
monsoon has an impact on the groundwater and also reservoirs, which are critical for rabi crops irrigation.
Page 7 of 103
In 2022, the monsoon onset in India was on 29th May 2022, three days ahead of its usual date of 1 st June. Thereafter, it made gradual progress throughout the
country. The rainfall over the country during June was 92%, July 117%, August 103%, and September 108% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The southwest
monsoon seasonal rainfall from June to September for the country as a whole has been above normal (106% of LPA). Quantitatively, all India monsoon
seasonal rainfall from 1st June to 30th September 2022 has been 92.5 cm against a long period average of 87 cm based on data of 1961-2010 (106% of its
Long Period Average-LPA). The southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the four homogeneous regions has been above normal over
South Peninsula India (122% of LPA) and central India (119% of LPA); normal over Northwest India (101% of LPA). Seasonal rainfall is below normal over East
and Northeast India (82% of LPA). The southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the monsoon core zone, which consists of most of the
rainfed agriculture regions in the country is above normal (120% of LPA). The progress of the monsoon during 2022 was quite erratic, and it has affected some
of the Kharif crops. However, the post-monsoon rains remained quite beneficial for the Rabi crops, and it has enhanced the soil moisture levels, which boosted
higher rabi crop sowing compared to the previous year.
All India Monsoon Rainfall Departure

% DEPARTURE FROM In 2023, the initial forecast for monsoon is likely to remain below normal. La Niña is
YEAR ACTUAL (mm) NORMAL (mm)
LONG PERIOD AVERAGE expected to continue with equal chances of La Niña and ENSO-neutral during
2022 925.0 868.6 6
January-March 2023. In February-April 2023, there is a 71% chance of ENSO-neutral.
2021 874.6 880.6 -1
Meanwhile, a neutral summer phase is usually bad news for India. India could see
2020 957.6 880.6 9
2019 968.3 880.6 10 below-normal monsoon during this shift from La Niña winter to neutral summer.
2018 804.0 887.5 -9 While the monsoon has large fluctuations in its arrival, intensity, duration, and
2017 841.3 887.5 -5 withdrawal, there are precursors to get an early glimpse and gauge its health during
the four-month-long season. Moreover, a below-normal monsoon forecast would remain a problem for the agriculture sector as it may impact the crop
acreages and yield, thereby adding fuel to the food prices and overall retail inflation.
Page 8 of 103
Cotton
Brief Introduction
Cotton originated from the Indian subcontinent and has been cultivated
since ancient times and was being grown 3000 years BC. India was the
original habitat for the cotton world. Arab merchants brought cotton cloth SHORT STAPLE (20MM & ASSAM COMILLA
to Europe in about 800 A.D. When Columbus discovered America in 1492, BELOW) BENGAL DESI
he found cotton growing in the Bahama Islands. By 1500, cotton was JAYADHAR
known generally throughout the world. Cottonseed is believed to have V797/G-COT-13/G.COT-21
been planted in Florida in 1556 and in Virginia in 1607. By 1616, colonists MEDIUM STAPLE (20.5MM- AK/Y-1(MAH./MP)
were growing cotton along the James River in Virginia. Cotton was first 24.5MM) PCO-2 AP/KAR/K-11(TN)
spun by machinery in England in 1730. The industrial revolution in England MCU-7 (TN)
and the invention of the cotton gin in the U.S. paved the way for the SVPR-2(TN)
important place for cotton in the world today. J-34 RAJ
MEDIUM LONG STAPLE
There are four different species of cotton viz.(a) Gossypium arboretum, (b) LRA 5166/KC-2 (TN)
(25.0MM-27.0MM)
G.herbaceum, (c) G.hirsutum, and (d) G.barbadense. G.hirsutum is the F414/H777/J-34 HYB
predominant species which alone contributes about 90% to the global F414/H777/J-34 HYB
production. India is the only country in the world where all the four H-4/H-6/MECH/RCH-2
LONG STAPLE (27.5MM-
cultivated species are grown on a commercial scale. SANKER-6 GUJARAT/10
32.0MM)
BUNNY
Cotton is a fluffy and soft staple fiber that grows in a boll around the seeds BRAHMA
of the cotton plant. The Cotton plant is a shrub or small tree belonging to
MCU-5 /SURABHI
the mallow family and native to tropical and subtropical regions. Raw EXTRA LONG STAPLE (32.5MM
DCH-32
cottonseed is also called Kapas in India. When Cotton fiber is separated or & ABOVE)
SUVIN
removed from the cottonseed, we term it Lint and this process is called
Ginning. The fiber is mainly spun into yarn or thread, which is used to
make a soft and durable textile. The Cottonseed that remains after the Role of Cotton in the Indian Economy
cotton is ginned is used to produce cottonseed oil. Cottonseed oil after Cotton plays a significant role in the Indian economy as the country's
reining process can be consumed by humans like other vegetable oil. The textiles & related industry is principally cotton-based. India is one of the
leftover part after crushing is called cottonseed cake or meal that is largest producers and exporters of cotton yarn. As per a report public shed
generally used in animal feed. by IBEF, the Indian textiles industry donates around 5% to the country's
Cotton is used in a wide range of products from clothing to home gross domestic product (GDP), 14% to industrial production, and 11% to
furnishing to medical products. Cotton is used to make huge varieties of total export earnings. The industry is also the second-largest employer in
textile products which include towels, robes, denim, cotton twill, Shirts and the country after agriculture, employing over 51 million people directly and
T-Shirts, cambric and bedsheets, etc. It is also used in crochet and knitting. 68 million people indirectly, including unskilled women. We can say that
It is a preferred material for sheets as it is hypoallergenic, easy to maintain, Cotton is playing an instrumental role in women’s empowerment &
and pleasant to the skin. employment generation as a whole to the vast population of our country.
Cotton needs a long growing season in which plenty of water and sunshine Cotton Corporation of India has been defending the interest of Indian
is required and then a dry weather spell during the harvesting period. cotton farmers for more than three decades and is the single largest
The cotton crop is also most vulnerable to pests and diseases. It is most cotton trading company in the country. The CCI has established almost 400
susceptible to damage from rain and wind during the maturity period. procurement centers across the country to serve the cotton farmer of the
country for fair pricing.
In India, Cotton production is mainly concentrated in central India,
specifically in Maharashtra, Gujrat, and the Telangana region. Other key
producing states are Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh,
Haryana, Rajasthan, and Punjab.
World Supply Trend
Cotton crop is a Kharif season crop. June to July is the sowing period of
World production of cotton is likely to remain unchanged y-o-y to
cotton, August to September is the growth period, and October to
25.20MMT in the crop year 2022-23 but it is revised a bit lower from
December is the harvesting period. About 65% cotton area in India is
USDA’s November 2022 forecast of 25.35MMT. Total world production in
rainfed, mainly in the Central and Southern States. Cotton requires tropical
2021-22 was 25.2MMT. India, China, the United States, and Brazil are the
and sub-tropical climate conditions, and the optimum temperature for
world’s largest producers of cotton. India accounts for 22.7% of the world’s
growth is 21-27C. However, cotton can tolerate temperate up to 43C.
production of cotton, China accounts for 22.3% of the world’s production
Note: Tropical climates are characterized by monthly average temperatures of 18 °C of cotton, the U.S. accounts for 14.6% of the world’s production, and Brazil
or higher year-round and feature hot temperatures. accounts for 10.9%. Other producers of cotton in the world are Pakistan,
Australia, and Turkey.
Verities of Indian Cotton can be categorized into Short Staple (20mm &
below), Medium Staple (20.5mm-24.5mm), Medium Long Staple (25mm-
27mm), Long Staple (27.5mm-32.0mm), and Extra Long Staple (32.5mm &
above).
Assam Comilla and Bengal Desi come under Short Staple. Jayadhar,
V797/G-Cot-13/G. Cot-21, AK/Y-1(Mah./MP), PCO-2 AP/Kar/K-11(TN),
MCU-7 (TN), and SVPR-2(TN) are Medium Staple verities. J-34 Raj, LRA
5166/KC-2 (TN), and F414/H777/J-34 Hyb are Medium Long Staple
Verities.
Cotton-organized future trading in India was first started way back in 1875
with the incorporation of the Bombay Cotton Association in 1875. As of
now, India is the largest producer of cotton in the world, which has
recently regained after surpassing China, followed by China and the USA.
Brazil and Pakistan rank at 4th and 5th number respectively.
Page 9 of 103
World Trade Trend

India World exports of cotton are expected to fall by –1.07 percent y-o-y to
India’s cotton production for the crop year 2022-23 is estimated at 36.02 9.20MMT in 2022-23. Exports from the U.S. are projected to fall by -16% to
million bales (1bale=170kgs) or 6.123MMT, 14% higher than the previous 2.67MMT, Exports from India are projected to fall by -10.60% to 0.73MMT
crop year’s production of 31.53 million bales or 5.36MMT as per our while, exports from Brazil are likely to gain by 7.70% to 1.81MMT. The
estimate. A 2% higher area coupled with a 12% higher yield account for world’s largest exporters of cotton are the United States which accounts
higher production. In the crop year 2021-22, the total cotton crop was for 32.2% of the total world exports, Brazil which accounts for 17.85% of
initially estimated at or around 5.99MMT by the Industry which was the total world exports, and India which accounts for 12.4% of the world
actually shaped much lower at 5.36MMT, resulting in massive price exports of cotton. World imports of cotton are estimated to fall by -1.5%
volatility due to the second consecutive year of a drop in the crop. While to 9.2MMT in 2021-2023. China, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Pakistan, and Turkey
cotton production stood at 6.01MMT and 6.21MMT in CY2020-21 and are the major importers of cotton in the world. China accounts for 20.9% of
CY2019-20 respectively. Coming back to state-wise production for the crop the world’s imports of cotton, Bangladesh accounts for 17.85% of the
year 2022-23, cotton production in Gujarat, the largest producer, is seen world’s imports of cotton, Vietnam accounts for 16%, Pakistan accounts for
higher by 28% at 10.35 million bales while production in Maharashtra, 11.84%, and Turkey 11.1%.
which is the second largest producer, is estimated to jump by 22% to 9.53
million bales. Telangana, which is the 3rd largest producer, will have an
18% jump in production at 4.52 million males. Cotton production in
Rajasthan is estimated lower by 11% at 2.32 million bales while Karnataka’s
production is seen to be higher by 6% at 2.15 million bales. Indian farmers
harvested 125.57 lakh ha of cotton in 2022-23 and the average yield is 490
kgs lakh/ha.
Production of Cotton in India has increased at a CAGR of 4.43 percent

from 14 million bales (170 kgs) in 2000-01 to 34.80 million bales (170kgs)
in 2021-22. Cotton yield in India has increased at a CAGR of 2.93 percent
from 278 kgs per hectare in 2000-01 to 510 kgs per hectare in 2021-22.
Gujarat is the largest cotton-producing state that accounts for 28.7% of the
total cotton production of India while Maharashtra is the second-largest
producer that accounts for 26.5% of the total cotton production of India
and Telangana is the third-largest state accounting for 12.5%.
World Demand Trend Ending Stocks
World consumption of cotton is likely to drop by -5.0% y-o-y to 24.32MMT

in the crop year 2022-23 due to a fall in demand from China, India,
Pakistan, Bangladesh, Turkey, Vietnam, and Brazil. China, India, Pakistan,
and Bangladesh are the world’s largest consumers of cotton. China
accounts for 31.8% of the world consumption of cotton, India accounts for
20.9% of the world consumption of cotton, Pakistan accounts for 9% of the
world consumption and Bangladesh accounts for 7.1%. Other key
consumers of cotton in the world are turkey, Vietnam, and Uzbekistan.
World ending stock is projected to gain by 4.8% to 19.5MMT, the highest

level in a 3-Year on higher supply and lower demand. India ending stock
as on 30th September 2023 is estimated at 15 lakh bales of 170 kgs versus
previous years’ level of 2.5 lakh bales of 170kgs.
Price Trend
History since 1970
Historically Cotton ICE future prices have not performed since 1970 barring
2011-2012 when it touched a record high of 219.7 US cents per pound on
India 07th March 2011 and had traded between 30 and 100 cents in the last 50
years except 1995, 2011-2012, and 2021-22, where prices breached its
India’s consumption of cotton is likely to drop by +7.9% y-o-y to 5.01MMT historical key supply zone of 90-100 cents, and only in 2011-2012 it abled
in the crop year 2021-22, as per USDA. India cotton consumption is likely to sustained decisively above it for considerable months. There was only
to increase by +15% y-o-y to 34.5 million bales (170 kgs) for the crop year one instance when it fell below 30 cents in 1972 otherwise in the bear
2022-23 from consumption of 31.0 million bales. Consumption of Cotton market it found support around 30 cents per pound in 1986 and 2001, and
in India has increased at a CAGR of 3.72 percent from 16.03 million bales its last two bottoms were 44.29 cents per pound hit in 2008 and 48.35
(170 kgs) in 2000-01 to 34.5 million bales (170kgs) in 2021-22. cents per pound touched in 2020. And historically, it is also observed that
in any up-cycle prices tend to remain firm for 2 to 3 years. We can consider
2020 as the beginning of the upcycle as prices were recovering from
historic lows but 2021 was no doubt good for the cotton and cotton
Page 10 of 103
industry for sure, all were having party time. That bull run extended till the 2021-2022, prices soared to a lifetime high of above Rs50,200/bale in
first half of 2022 when prices touched an 11½-Year High of 155.95 cents Indian markets. But prices started softening with the initial fact of higher
per pound during May 2022 but prices corrected like a falling knife planting area, and that correction continued with better crop progress and
between June and December 2022 on account of recessionary fear and bumper Indian crops. H2 of 2022 was just the reverse of H1 of 2022 as
soaring US currency. Prices once again are in the long-term historical prices not only reversed the entire whopping gains but lost more than
range as mentioned earlier and closed 2022 on a negative note despite what was gained in H1. Though farmers held back new crops in
lower U.S. production caused by drought in the key producing states as expectations of better price realization later that in turn resulted in 40%
looming recessionary fear and bumper India production weighed heavily. lower arrivals in the October-December 2022 period compared to the
same period last year but December took the entire stability of around
32000/bale and drove the prices below Rs.30,000 mark, which was our
target given in the month of June 2022. During December, prices softened
Price Trend in 2022
on account of benign cotton yarn demand. Downstream demand was
Indian Cotton prices closed the Year 2022 finally with a loss of about - weak, and spinning mills in central and south India were desperately
13.7% at Rs.28908/bale, prices lost 11% in November and about 26% in the looking to clear their stocks even at a discount amid poor buying.
last quarter of 2022. The year 2022 was full of extraordinary volatility in the
cotton market as due to a supply deficit of about 11% in the crop year
Historical Prices-Cotton MCX (in Rs/Bale) Historical Prices-Cotton Shankar Kapas (in Rs/20Kg)
Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Jan 20371.8 20810.0 19617.8 21065.5 35847.5 Jan 1076.8 1137.4 1095.0 1155.6 1939.2
Feb 19963.0 20330.0 19020.0 21469.5 37411.0 Feb 1036.9 1120.4 1067.9 1226.9 2034.1
Mar 20461.4 21067.1 17519.5 21675.7 39103.5 Mar 1028.7 1157.5 1046.3 1277.0 2109.2
Apr 20655.7 22097.5 16316.7 21513.8 43942.0 Apr 1034.0 1263.2 1046.3 1307.1 2392.6
May 20962.2 21583.9 15684.3 22195.7 47988.2 May 1030.6 1268.0 995.3 1291.7 2454.4
Jun 22419.5 21803.5 16097.7 24106.4 46772.3 Jun 1148.4 1289.8 945.1 1356.2 2494.6
Jul 22468.2 21291.7 16065.7 25845.9 42751.0 Jul 1217.1 1268.9 938.1 1375.4 2302.0
Aug 23544.5 20631.0 16631.0 26402.3 48599.0 Aug 1226.2 1242.0 951.9 1423.0 2170.8
Sep 22573.0 19648.6 17867.1 26062.9 34127.1 Sep 1185.5 1149.8 966.0 1290.2 2104.0
Oct 22589.1 19529.6 19125.2 30744.8 32859.0 Oct 1174.8 1100.5 1030.2 1507.1 1969.4
Nov 22051.4 19179.5 19842.7 32194.5 32298.6 Nov 1180.2 1059.2 1105.5 1685.7 1876.6
Dec 21501.0 19139.5 20147.7 31967.0 30344.5 Dec 1146.2 1072.2 1113.9 1718.8 1736.5
Historical Prices-Cotton Bengal Desi (in Rs/Candy) Historical Prices-Cotton S-6 (in Rs/Candy)
Month 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Month 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Jan 28730.0 39682.0 42671.0 38775.0 37527.0 Jan 41217.0 38468.0 46196.0 41830.0 39135.0
Feb 28464.0 41500.0 43065.0 38648.0 39213.0 Feb 38728.0 37462.0 45441.0 40376.0 40835.0
Mar 28152.0 41942.0 41300.0 38332.0 39362.0 Mar 39007.0 39296.0 44020.0 39384.0 41565.0
Apr 31688.0 42535.0 40754.0 37089.0 38848.0 Apr 41256.0 41084.0 42846.0 40011.0 43220.0
May 34295.0 42030.0 40488.0 36378.0 38938.0 May 42482.0 40061.0 41850.0 39400.0 44388.0
Jun 36136.0 42962.0 40621.0 36621.0 38352.0 Jun 43096.0 40846.0 43179.0 38048.0 45436.0
Jul 35183.0 42780.0 42674.0 36796.0 38991.0 Jul 42954.0 41172.0 46039.0 36744.0 45522.0
Aug 36019.0 42631.0 41965.0 35676.0 39312.0 Aug 42400.0 42246.0 45265.0 35184.0 46744.0
Sep 36538.0 44712.0 41792.0 37135.0 41132.0 Sep 42642.0 46265.0 45508.0 35019.0 50540.0
Oct 37078.0 45300.0 41488.0 37267.0 42489.0 Oct 42396.0 47631.0 44123.0 34904.0 53911.0
Nov 36020.0 45288.0 41121.0 36926.0 43740.0 Nov 42320.0 48000.0 42404.0 35422.0 56360.0
Dec 34740.0 44255.0 40435.0 36520.0 42029.0 Dec 40764.0 47186.0 41830.0 36700.0 55200.0
Source: Origo e-Mandi Research Source: Origo e-Mandi Research
Price Seasonality
Page 11 of 103
Crop Balance Sheet-Cotton (in MMT) Crop Balance Sheet-Cotton (in US Million Bales)
Particulars Country 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 Particulars Country 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
China 8.27 7.82 7.91 8.23 8.12 China 38.00 35.91 36.34 37.79 37.31
India 1.88 1.87 3.41 2.60 1.87 India 8.63 8.60 15.68 11.94 8.60
Opening Stocks Opening Stocks
United States 0.91 1.06 1.58 0.69 0.82 United States 4.20 4.85 7.25 3.15 3.75
World 18.03 17.98 21.43 18.88 18.60 World 82.83 82.58 98.41 86.73 85.44
China 6.10 5.98 6.44 5.84 6.10 China 28.00 27.45 29.60 26.80 28.00
India 5.66 6.21 6.01 5.31 5.99 India 26.00 28.50 27.60 24.40 27.50
Production Production
World 25.80 26.16 24.27 25.19 25.20 World 118.49 120.16 111.49 115.72 115.73
China 2.10 1.55 2.80 1.71 1.74 China 9.63 7.14 12.86 7.84 8.00
India 0.39 0.50 0.18 0.22 0.36 India 1.80 2.28 0.84 1.00 1.65
Imports Imports
World 9.24 8.86 10.60 9.34 9.20 World 42.45 40.70 48.69 42.89 42.27
China 0.05 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.03 China 0.21 0.16 0.01 0.12 0.13
India 0.77 0.70 1.35 0.81 0.73 India 3.52 3.20 6.19 3.74 3.35
Exports Exports
World 9.03 8.94 10.61 9.33 9.20 World 41.48 41.06 48.73 42.86 42.25
China 8.60 7.40 8.93 7.62 7.73 China 39.50 34.00 41.00 35.00 35.50
India 5.29 4.46 5.66 5.44 5.01 India 24.30 20.50 26.00 25.00 23.00
Consumption Consumption
World 26.06 22.64 26.81 25.50 24.30 World 119.71 103.98 123.13 117.13 111.63
China 7.82 7.91 8.23 8.12 8.21 China 35.91 36.34 37.79 37.31 37.69
India 1.87 3.41 2.60 1.87 2.48 India 8.60 15.68 11.94 8.60 11.40
Ending Stocks Ending Stocks
World 17.98 21.43 18.88 18.58 19.50 World 82.58 98.41 86.73 85.34 89.56
Source: US Department of Agriculture Source: US Department of Agriculture (1 Bale = 480 Pounds = 217.17 kgs as per US Standard)
India Cotton State-wise Area, Yield and Production

Year 2022-23 2021-22 2020-21 2019-20 2018-19
State Area Yield Production Area Yield Production Area Yield Production Area Yield Production Area Yield Production
Punjab 2.50 204 3.00 3.00 482 8.50 2.52 690 10.23 2.48 651 9.50 2.68 539 8.50
Haryana 6.50 314 12.00 6.50 421 16.10 7.40 419 18.23 7.23 623 26.50 7.08 552 23.00
Rajasthan 6.50 719 27.50 7.60 574 25.67 8.08 675 32.07 7.60 649 29.00 6.29 743 27.50
North total 15.50 466 42.50 17.10 500 50.27 18.00 572 60.53 17.31 638 65.00 16.05 625 59.00
Gujarat 25.50 627 94.00 22.60 574 76.30 22.70 544 72.70 26.55 570 89.00 26.60 575 90.00
Maharashtra 42.30 332 82.50 41.80 305 75.00 42.86 380 95.88 44.91 329 87.00 42.18 306 76.00
Madhya Pradesh 6.00 567 20.00 5.90 576 20.00 5.72 530 17.83 6.50 523 20.00 6.14 637 23.00
Central total 73.80 453 196.50 70.30 414 171.30 71.28 445 186.41 77.96 427 196.00 74.92 429 189.00
Telangana 19.70 380 44.00 20.50 294 35.40 23.59 432 59.95 21.27 432 54.00 18.39 388 42.00
Andhra Pradesh 5.90 375 13.00 5.40 472 15.00 6.06 450 16.04 6.57 466 18.00 6.20 411 15.00
Karnataka 8.10 462 22.00 6.90 499 20.25 8.20 481 23.20 8.17 416 20.00 7.18 379 16.00
Tamil Nadu 0.30 3400 6.00 1.30 1275 9.75 1.12 379 2.50 1.70 600 6.00 1.33 767 6.00
South Total 34.00 425 85.00 34.10 401 80.40 38.97 444 101.69 37.71 442 98.00 33.10 406 79.00
Orissa 2.20 232 3.00 1.90 186 2.08 1.71 496 4.99 1.70 400 4.00 1.57 433 4.00
Others 0.20 2975 3.50 0.10 5100 3.00 0.11 340 0.22 0.09 3778 2.00 0.50 680 2.00
Total 125.70 447 330.50 123.50 423 307.05 130.07 462 353.84 134.77 460 365.00 126.14 449 333.00
Source: Cotton Association of India. Note- Area in lakh hectares, Production in lakh bale of 170kgs, and Yield kgs per hectare.
Crop Balance Sheet-Cotton (In Million Bales)

Particulars 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Opening stock 4.38 4.29 5.65 12.08 7.18 3.19
Crop (Production) 37.00 33.30 36.50 35.38 30.71 33.05
Imports 1.58 3.54 1.55 1.10 1.40 1.20
Total Supply 42.96 41.13 43.70 48.57 39.29 37.44
Mill Consumption 28.01 27.08 23.37 29.75 29.30 28.00
S.S.I Consumption 2.62 2.24 2.05 2.24 1.90 1.50

Non-Textile
1.28 1.80 1.50 1.50 0.60 0.50
Consumption
Total consumption 31.91 31.12 26.92 33.49 31.80 30.00
Exports 6.76 4.36 4.70 7.76 4.30 3.00
Total Demand 38.67 35.48 31.62 41.25 36.10 33.00
Closing Stock 4.29 5.65 12.08 7.32 3.19 4.44

Source: Cotton Association of India (1 Indian cotton bale = 170 kg) Note: Area = lakh hectares, Production = lakh bale of 170kgs, Yield kgs per hectare
Page 12 of 103
Average Cotton Consumption in India (in Lakh Bales)

Year 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Non-SSI mills 221.77 223.59 251.74 268.03 278.06 270.20 262.70 280.11 270.78 233.70 297.45 276.90 275.00
SSI mills 24.46 22.12 23.59 25.20 26.38 27.08 26.21 26.18 22.43 20.49 22.42 20.87 20.00
Source: Cotton Association of India
Cotton Imports in India

Year 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
Quantity 6.38 10.00 6.00 2.38 7.51 14.59 11.51 14.39 22.79 30.94 15.80 35.37 15.50 11.00
Value 978.54 1377.80 1195.64 1709.11 1059.20 2057.77 2746.16 2848.50 4230.00 7268.00 4224.84 8339.26 3588.38 3482.72
Source: Cotton Association of India. Quantity in Lakh Bales. Value in Rs. Crore
Cotton Exports in India

Year 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
Quantity 88.50 35.00 83.00 76.50 129.57 101.43 116.96 57.72 69.07 58.21 67.59 43.55 47.04 77.59
Value 8365.98 3837.13 10270.21 14483.31 23488.59 17462.87 23153.24 9499.87 11434.80 11676.00 13976.71 9502.72 8731.32 17753.83
Source: Cotton Association of India. Quantity in Lakh Bales. Value in Rs. Crore
India Cotton Imports and Exports
Page 13 of 103
Corn
Brief Introduction
Maize (Zea mays L) also known as Corn is one of the most versatile
World Supply Trend
emerging crops having wider adaptability under varied agro-climatic
conditions. Globally, corn is known as the queen of cereals because it has
the highest genetic yield potential among cereals. It is cultivated on nearly
202.8 million hectares in about 160 countries having wider diversity of soil,
climate, biodiversity, and management practices that contributes 43% to
global grain production. The United States is the largest producer of maize
contributes nearly 32% of the total production in the world and maize is
the driver of the US economy. The USA has the highest productivity
(11.1 MT/Ha) which is double the global average (5.95 MT/Ha).
Maize has become a staple food in many parts of the world, with the total
production of maize surpassing that of wheat or rice. In addition to being
consumed directly by humans (often in the form of masa), maize is also
used for corn ethanol, animal feed, and other maize products, such as corn
starch and corn syrup. The six major types of maize are dent corn, flint
corn, pod corn, popcorn, flour corn, and sweet corn. Sugar-rich varieties
called sweet corn are usually grown for human consumption as kernels,
while field corn varieties are used for animal feed, various corn-based
human food uses (including grinding into cornmeal or masa, pressing into Global corn production during the 2021-2022 (Sep-Aug) Crop Year
corn oil, and fermentation and distillation into alcoholic beverages), and as increased by 7.8% year on year (y-o-y) basis to 1216.9 MMT. Meanwhile, in
a chemical feedstock. Maize is also used in making ethanol and other 2022-2023 global corn production is estimated at 1161.9 MMT lower by
biofuels. 4.5% y-o-y. Global corn production has grown at a CAGR of 2.7% from
1980-81 to 2021-22. Production increased significantly by 198% from 409
India’s corn production has increased 4 times from around 6.9 million tons
MMT in 1980-81 to 1216.9 MMT in 2021-22. The major corn producers are
in the early 1980s to around 30 million tons today. This remarkable
the United States with a share of 32%, China 23%, Brazil 9%, European
production growth has been largely driven by the adoption of single-cross
Union 6%, and Argentina 4%. In 2022-23, United States corn production
hybrids in the late 1980s and continuous demand in the domestic and
was 7.6% lower y-o-y to 353.8 MMT. Meanwhile, US production increased
export market. The increasing use of maize as feed, increasing interest of
by 127% from 1980-81 and grew at a CAGR of 2% from 1980-81. China is
the consumers in nutritionally enriched products, and rising demand for
the second-largest producer of corn in the World, their production
maize seed are the core driving forces behind the emerging importance of
increased by 335% from 1980-81 to 2021-22 with a CAGR of 3.7%. In 2022-
maize crop in India. However, despite the production strength, Indian corn
23, China’s corn production estimated at 274 MMT, up 0.5% and it is a
yields are significantly below the yields in major corn-producing countries.
record production. The South American nations like Brazil and Argentina
There is immense scope for an increase in India’s corn production by the
have also increased their corn production significantly in the past 40 years.
increasing area under hybrids, adoption of better genetics, and improved
Brazil is the third-largest producer of corn in the world and their
agronomic practices. Driven by structural changes in agriculture and food
production increased by 415% since 1980-81, with a CAGR of 4.1%. In
consumption patterns, maize is bound to hold its share as an important
2022-23, Brazil corn production is estimated to remain at a record high at
cereal crop in the future.
126 MMT, up 8.6% y-o-y. Meanwhile, Argentina’s corn production has
Maize can be grown successfully in a variety of soils ranging from loamy increased by 319% since 1980-81, growing at a CAGR of 3.6%. In 2022-23,
sand to clay loam. However, soils with good organic matter content having Argentina corn production is estimated at 55 MMT, up 6.8% y-o-y.
high water holding capacity with neutral pH are considered good for
higher productivity. Being a sensitive crop to moisture stress particularly
excess soil moisture and salinity stresses; it is desirable to avoid low lying
fields having poor drainage and also the field having higher salinity.
Therefore, fields having provision of proper drainage should be
selected for the cultivation of maize. Maize can be grown in all seasons viz;
Kharif (monsoon), post-monsoon, Rabi (winter), and spring. During Rabi
and spring seasons to achieve higher yield at farmer’s fields assured
irrigation facilities are required. During Kharif season it is desirable to
complete the sowing operation 12-15 days before the onset of monsoon.
However, in rainfed areas, the sowing time should coincide with the onset
of the monsoon. A temperature of 21°C- 27°C and 50-100 cm rainfall is
suitable for its cultivation. Alternate spells of rain and sunny weather are
ideal for maize.
Importance of Corn in the Indian Economy
In India, maize is emerging as the third most important crop after rice and
wheat. Its importance lies in the fact that it is not only used for human India’s corn production has increased by 360% since 1980-81, growing at a
CAGR of 3.7%. Maize is grown in both Kharif and Rabi seasons in India. The
food and animal feed but at the same time, it is also widely used for the
production share of Kharif season maize is 70% and Rabi maize is 30%. The
corn starch industry, corn oil production, baby corn. Corn contributes 62%
major corn-producing states in India are Karnataka (18% share), Madhya
share to the total coarse cereal production in the country. Currently, India
Pradesh (15%), Maharashtra (13%), Bihar (10%), Telangana (10%),
ranks seventh in respect to the production of corn in the world. The crop
Rajasthan (9%), Tamil Nadu (8%), Andhra Pradesh (7%) and Gujarat (2%).
helps to earn valuable foreign exchange (USD$ 645.48 million in 2020-
2021) by way of corn exports.
Page 14 of 103
critical channel that moves corn from the Midwest to export terminals in
World Demand Trend the Louisiana Gulf.
India’s corn exports remained volatile in the past decade due to

weather-induced production woes and at the same time, consumption has
increased manifold, due to which exportable surplus declined. India is not
a regular exporter of maize and comes under the export picture whenever
there are global shortages or supply chain crises across the world. India’s
maize export share to production is only about 10% in the previous two
years. India exports maize mainly to South Asia and a few Southeast Asian
nations, major export destinations are Bangladesh, Nepal, Vietnam, and
Malaysia. India corn exports fell by 4% in 2021-22 to 3.45 MMT while in
2022-23 exports are estimated to decline by 27.5% y-o-y at 2.5 MMT.
Inflated global prices in the 1 st half of 2022 due to the global supply chain
crisis led by the Russian-Ukraine war, supported the Indian maize export
demand from the Southeast Asian nations. Higher global prices made
Indian corn prices competitive in the international market. Going ahead in
Global corn consumption during the 2021-2022 (Sep-Aug) Crop Year 2022-23, the export demand from India for corn to the South East Asian
increased by +3.3% y-o-y to 1183.7 MMT. Meanwhile, in 2022-2023 Global nations would fade as their demand would shift towards South American
corn consumption is estimated at 1165.3 MMT, lower by 1.6% y-o-y. Global corn, as Argentina and Brazil start their new crop harvest. The export parity
corn consumption has grown at a CAGR of 2.5% from 1980-81 to 2021-22. of Indian corn to the Southeast Asian nations will wane in the coming
Consumption increased significantly by 187% from 412 MMT in 1980-81 to months, hence exports are estimated lower by 27.5% y-o-y.
1183.7 MMT in 2021-22. The major consumers are the United States (27%),
China (25%), European Union (7%), and Brazil (6%). In 2021-22, United
States corn consumption was record high at 317.1 MMT, 3.4% higher y-o-
y. Meanwhile, US consumption increased by 155% from 1980-81 and grew
at a CAGR of 2.2% from 1980-81. In the US corn is consumed by livestock
and poultry feed sector with 46% share and ethanol & industrial usage
with 54% share. China is the second-largest consumer of corn in the World,
their consumption increased by 371% from 1980-81 to 2021-22 with a
CAGR of 3.8%. In 2022-23, China’s corn consumption is estimated to be a
record high at 295 MMT, 1.4% higher y-o-y. In China corn is consumed
mainly by livestock and poultry feed sector with a share of 73% and
ethanol & other industrial usages 27% share.
India maize consumption has grown at a CAGR of 3.5% during 1980-81 to

2021-22 period. Maize consumption increased by 339% since 1980-81. In
Imports
India around 60% of maize is consumed by poultry, aquaculture, and
livestock feed sector, around 32% is consumed by the starch sector and Global corn imports fell marginally by 0.6% y-o-y in 2021-22 to 183.9 MMT
food usage is 6%. In 2022-23, India corn consumption is estimated at 28.8 while in 2022-23 imports are estimated to drop by 4% y-o-y at 176.4 MMT.
MMT, 2.3% higher y-o-y. Global corn imports have grown at a CAGR of 2.2% from 1980-81 to 2021-
22. Global corn imports increased significantly by 148% from 74 MMT in
1980-81 to 183.9 MMT in 2021-22. The major corn importing nations in
world are European Union with a share of 11%, Mexico 10%, Japan 9%,
World Trade Trend China 8%, South Korea 7%, and Vietnam 6%. Before 2020-21, China’s corn
imports were in the range of 3 to 5 MMT during 2011-12 to 2018-19, prior
Exports to 2011-12 China’s imports were negligible.
Global corn exports touched a record high number of 202.5MMT, higher China’s import share increased significantly from 2020/21 onwards when
by 10.8% y-o-y in 2021-22 while in 2022-23 exports are estimated at 181.6 China imported around 29.5 MMT corn due to supply deficit and imports
MMT, 10.3% lower y-o-y. Global corn exports have grown at a CAGR of done to meet both restocking of reserves and continued feed demand in
2.2% from 1980-81 to 2021-22. Global corn exports increased significantly addition to attempts to bring down high domestic prices.
by 152% from 80 MMT in 1980-81 to 202.5 MMT in 2021-22. The major
exporters are the United States with a share of 33%, Argentina 19%, Brazil
18%, and Ukraine 14%. However, due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in
February 2022, Ukrainian exports of grain have been severely disrupted. Ending Stocks
For over four months, Russian military vessels have been blocking
Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea. Ukraine’s corn export during the period of
March to June 2022 fell by 54% y-o-y and 56% from the last 5 years’ World Corn Ending Stock
average. On 22nd July 2022, an agreement was brokered by the United (Percentage Share)
Nations and Turkey to open a safe maritime humanitarian corridor in the
China - 67%
Black Sea (the Black Sea Grain Initiative). Since then, over 500 ships full of
EU - 3%
grain and other foodstuffs have left three Ukrainian ports: Chornomorsk,
Odesa, and Yuzhny/Pivdennyi. The total corn export from 1st July to 22nd
December was 11.8 MMT, 31% higher year-on-year. While unblocking the
sea export route has helped to address the global food security crisis and Others - 14%
lower the grain prices. U.S. corn export commitments as of 22nd December
were 21.42 MMT (down 47.4% from last year and 33.4% below the 5-year
average). Sales are slow as compared to the last year due to high export US - 14%
Brazil - 2%
prices, driven by limited exportable supplies and difficult inland logistics,
Source: USDA/ Origo e-Mandi Research
resulting from historically low water levels on the Mississippi River—a
Page 15 of 103
Global corn ending stock increased by 5% y-o-y in 2021-22 to 307.1 MMT Indian corn prices gained by 26.6% y-o-y in Chhindwara and 22.4% y-o-y
while in 2022-23 ending stock is estimated at 298.4 MMT, 2.8% lower y-o- in Gulabbagh locations during 2022. The annualized volatility in
y. China holds around 67% of global corn stocks followed by the United Chhindwara corn prices were 19% and Gulabbagh corn prices was 16% in
States with a 14% share, Brazil 2%, and the European Union 3%. 2022. In Q1 2022, prices gained by 34.8% buoyed by strong export
demand from the Southeast Asian nation due to disruptions in the global
trade supply chain owing to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The domestic
demand from the feed and starch industry also improved post-COVID-19.
Price Trend Hence, strong demand from both domestic and exports market amid rabi
crop concerns kept the prices firm. In Q2 2022, prices softened by 6% as
CBOT Corn prices gained by around 13.61% over the last year and made a the rabi season crop harvest was delayed and the arrivals mounted
high of 827 US cents per bushel and a low of 561.5 US cents per bushel. pressure on the prices. In Q3 2022, corn prices gained by 1.6% as supplies
The annualized volatility in CBOT corn prices was 33% during 2022. CBOT were lower due to the lean season while demand was stable. Meanwhile, in
Corn prices reached around 10 years high on 29th April fueled by the Q4 with the beginning of the Kharif corn harvest season, the prices
Russia-Ukraine war coupled with slow planting progress of US corn crop softened by 6.4% from the last quarter. As the market resumed post-Diwali
and dryness concerns in Brazil affecting the Safrinha crop. In the first half holidays on 27th October, prices lost by over 7% to Rs.2100 per quintal. In
of 2022, corn prices gained by 26% given the expectations of lower crop in the ongoing season, maize prices have bottomed out at Rs.2100 per
US coupled with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war which disturbed the quintal, thereafter prices gained by 7% (or Rs.150/ quintal) and traded in
global trade supply chain. While in the second half of 2022, corn prices the price band of Rs.2200-2250 per quintal. As the maize arrivals picked
softened by 10% as an agreement was brokered by the United Nations and pace and prices softened, the buying activities were quite strong from the
Turkey to open a safe maritime humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea (the poultry and starch industries to cover their demand, as their buying was
Black Sea Grain Initiative). With that the exports resumed from Ukraine hand-to-mouth in the previous few months due to higher prices. In
thus giving some respite to the price rally. However, the dryness concerns addition to the domestic demand, the export demand for maize from India
in Argentina kept the corn prices volatile in December. Meanwhile, the remained very strong. Kharif corn production was hit due to unseasonal
global recessionary fears and constant interest rate hikes amid slow rains across most of the corn producing regions which also capped the
exports from US and lower ethanol and feed consumption kept the prices significant fall in the prices. Going forward in 2023, prices would continue
range bound. to trade in bullish momentum with the prospects of continuous demand
and tight supplies.
Going forward in 2023, prices would continue to trade in bullish
momentum given the persisting dryness concerns damaging the crops
across South American origins.
Historical Prices-Maize Gulabbagh (in Rs/Quintal) Historical Prices-Maize Chhindwara (Rs/Quintal)

Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Jan 1297.5 1943.3 2341.3 1560.6 2150.6 Jan 1158.1 1882.2 2186.7 1409.2 1900.8
Feb 1234.9 2060.7 2005.3 1511.2 2229.7 Feb 1238.3 2054.1 2005.3 1445.3 2029.9
Mar 1261.4 2035.7 1805.2 1450.3 2381.9 Mar 1251.8 2066.6 1805.2 1508.8 2236.9
Apr 1285.6 2073.7 1417.2 1488.7 2331.2 Apr 1336.3 2297.7 1417.2 1488.7 2331.2
May 1157.6 1814.3 1220.7 1494.0 2249.0 May 1321.4 2103.7 1220.7 1494.0 2249.0
Jun 1130.2 1848.6 1250.4 1588.6 2215.8 Jun 1338.3 2076.0 1250.4 1588.6 2215.8
Jul 1168.6 2155.9 1231.4 1833.8 2289.4 Jul 1383.4 2350.8 1231.4 1833.8 2289.4
Aug 1252.1 2174.6 1245.5 1844.0 2476.8 Aug 1467.5 2316.0 1245.5 1844.0 2476.8
Sep 1340.3 2116.3 1339.4 1879.6 2491.1 Sep 1471.6 2336.7 1336.6 1879.6 2486.0
Oct 1417.4 2133.5 1442.3 1853.4 2438.8 Oct 1506.4 2261.6 1331.3 1813.1 2272.6
Nov 1564.4 2146.4 1645.3 1963.5 2465.1 Nov 1507.9 2071.0 1467.7 1731.0 2179.4
Dec 1773.9 2341.7 1613.3 2068.6 2523.3 Dec 1701.8 2192.9 1446.2 1720.2 2224.9
Crop Seasonality
Page 16 of 103
Price Seasonality
Crop Balance Sheet-Maize (in MMT)
Particulars Country 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Argentina 32.0 51.0 51.0 52.0 51.5 55.0

Brazil 82.0 101.0 102.0 87.0 116.0 126.0
China 259.1 257.2 260.8 260.7 272.6 274.0
Production European Union 62.0 64.4 66.7 67.4 71.0 54.2
India 28.8 27.7 28.8 31.6 33.6 32.0
United States 371.1 364.3 346.0 358.4 382.9 353.8
World 1081.5 1128.7 1123.1 1129.2 1216.9 1161.9
Argentina 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Brazil 0.9 1.7 1.7 2.8 2.3 1.3
China 3.5 4.5 7.6 29.5 21.9 18.0
Imports European Union 17.7 23.6 17.4 14.5 19.8 21.5
India 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
United States 0.9 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.6 1.3
World 152.9 166.5 167.7 184.9 183.9 176.4
Argentina 22.5 37.2 36.3 40.9 36.5 41.0
Brazil 24.1 39.7 35.1 21.0 44.5 47.0
China 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Exports European Union 2.7 4.3 5.4 3.7 6.0 2.2
India 1.1 0.4 1.4 3.6 3.5 2.5
United States 61.9 52.5 45.2 69.8 62.8 52.7
World 149.5 182.6 172.4 182.7 202.5 181.6
Argentina 12.4 13.8 13.5 13.5 14.7 14.0
Brazil 63.5 67.0 68.5 70.0 73.0 77.0
China 263.0 274.0 278.0 285.0 291.0 295.0
Consumption European Union 75.2 85.0 79.0 77.7 82.7 76.1
India 26.7 28.5 27.2 27.9 29.9 28.8
United States 314.0 310.4 309.5 306.7 317.1 305.4
World 1095.2 1131.5 1133.6 1146.3 1183.7 1165.3
Argentina 2.4 2.4 3.6 1.2 1.5 1.5
Brazil 9.3 5.3 5.3 4.2 5.0 8.3
China 222.5 210.2 200.5 205.7 209.1 206.1
Ending Stocks European Union 9.0 7.6 7.4 7.9 9.9 7.3
India 2.3 1.3 1.9 2.1 2.4 1.6
United States 54.4 56.4 48.8 31.4 35.0 31.9
World 341.5 322.6 307.4 292.5 307.1 298.4
Source: US Department of Agriculture
India Maize Imports

Year 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Qty ('000 MT) 3.88 5.35 13.87 6.02 181.76 83.22 30.70 86.02 458.51 24.82 23.73
Value (Rs. Crore) 8.64 29.35 80.77 28.36 291.77 162.46 102.06 183.38 843.20 81.46 105.43
Source: DGFT, GOI
Page 17 of 103
India Maize Exports

Year 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Qty ('000 MT) 3855.72 4788.33 3954.24 2825.61 697.95 566.35 705.51 1051.86 370.44 2926.27 3698.66
Value (Rs. Crore) 5157.51 7096.34 5983.66 4037.51 1162.01 1030.13 1228.46 1872.51 1024.49 4754.70 7632.94
Source: DGFT, GOI
Page 18 of 103
Rice
Brief Introduction
Rice, also known as Oryza sativa is the most important cereal crop in the 4. Western Region: This region comprises Gujarat, Maharashtra, and
developing world and is the staple food of over half the world's population Rajasthan. Rice is largely grown under rainfed conditions from June-August
with Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South America as the largest consuming to October-December.
regions. It is generally considered a semi-aquatic annual grass plant. There
Rice is a nutritional staple food that provides instant energy as its most
are only two major species of cultivated rice i.e. Oryza sativa, or Asian rice,
important component is carbohydrates (starch). On the other hand, rice is
and Oryza glaberrima, or African rice. The rice varieties grown across the
poor in nitrogenous substances with the average composition of these
world belong overwhelmingly to the Oryza Sativa (O.S) species, while
substances being only 8 % and fat content or lipids only negligible, i.e., 1%,
cultivation of the Oryza glaberrima (O.G) is confined to Africa. The types of
and due to this reason it is considered a complete food for eating. The
rice produced in the World are Indica, Aromatic (Jasmine and Basmati),
variability of the composition and characteristics of rice is really broad and
Japonica, Glutinous, and other specialty rice. Indica is grown in Tropical
depends on the variety and environmental conditions under which the
and subtropical regions such as Southeast Asia and South Asia, and its
crop is grown. In husked rice, protein content ranges between 7% to 12%.
share in global rice trade is 75%, Aromatic is grown in Primarily Thailand,
The use of nitrogen fertilizers increases the percentage content of some
Vietnam, Cambodia, India, and Pakistan, and its share in global rice trade is
amino acids.
18%, Japonica is grown in Regions with cooler climates such as Japan,
Korea, parts of China, California, Europe, and Australia, and its share in the
global rice trade is 5%, Glutinous and other specialty rice is grown in
Southeast Asia, and its share in global rice trade is 3%. Rice is the Importance of Rice in the Indian Economy
agricultural commodity with the fourth-highest worldwide production,
Rice contributes significantly to Indian foodgrain production with a share
after wheat, sugarcane, and maize. Since sizable portions of sugarcane and
of 40% of the total foodgrain and 43% of the total cereal production in the
maize crops are used for purposes other than human consumption, rice is
country. Currently, India ranks second with respect to the production of
the most important food crop for human nutrition and caloric intake,
rice in the world. The crop helps to earn valuable foreign exchange (USD$
providing more than one-fifth of the calories consumed worldwide by
humans. 8,829.18 million in FY 2020-2021) by way of rice exports. Rice is the most
important staple food consumed by more than 60% of the population in
India is an important center of rice cultivation. Rice is cultivated in the India. Rice is consumed as a staple food in south India and east India. Rice
largest areas of India. Historians believe that while the indica variety of rice is mostly consumed after boiling in water. Rice flour is rich in starch and is
was first domesticated in the area covering the foothills of the Eastern
used for making various food materials. It is also used in some instances by
Himalayas (i.e. north-eastern India), stretching through Burma, Thailand,
brewers to make alcoholic malt. Likewise, rice straw mixed with other
Laos, Vietnam, and Southern China, the japonica variety was domesticated
materials is used to produce porcelain, glass, and pottery. Rice is also used
from wild rice in southern China which was introduced to India. Perennial
in the manufacturing of paper pulp and livestock bedding.
wild rice is still grown in Assam and Nepal. It seems to have appeared
around 1400 BC in southern India after its domestication in the northern
plains. It then spread to all the fertile alluvial plains watered by rivers. In
India rice is grown under widely varying conditions of altitude and climate.
Rice cultivation in India extends from 8 to 35ºN latitudes and from sea World Supply Trend
level to as high as 3000 meters. The Rice crop needs a hot and humid
climate. It is best suited to regions that have high humidity, prolonged
sunshine, and an assured supply of water. The average temperature
required throughout the life period of the crop ranges from 21 to 37º C.
Maximum temp which the crop can tolerate 40 ºC to 42 ºC. In India Rice is
mainly grown in two types of soil i.e., (i) uplands and (ii) low lands. The
method of cultivation of rice in a particular region depends largely on
factors such as the situation of the land, type of soil, irrigation facilities,
availability of laborers intensity, and distribution of rainfalls. The crop of
rice is grown with the following methods.
The rice-growing areas in the country can be broadly grouped into five
regions as given below:
1) North-Eastern Region: This region comprises Assam and the North-

eastern states. In Assam rice is grown in the Basin of the Brahmaputra
River. This region receives very heavy rainfall and rice is grown under
rainfed conditions.
Global rice production during the 2021-2022 (Jul-Jun) Crop Year increased
2) Eastern Region: This region comprises Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand,
by 1.1% year on year (y-o-y) basis to 515 MMT. Meanwhile, in 2022-2023
Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Eastern Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal. In this
global rice production is estimated at 503.3 MMT, lower by 2.3% y-o-y.
region, rice is grown in the basins of the Ganga and Mahanadi rivers and
Global rice production has grown at a CAGR of 1.56% from 1980-81 to
has the highest intensity of rice cultivation in the country. This region
2021-22. Production increased significantly by 91% from 269.9 MMT in
receives heavy rainfall and rice is grown mainly under rainfed conditions.
1980-81 to 515 MMT in 2021-22. The five major producers of rice in the
3. Northern Region: This region comprises Haryana, Punjab, Western world are China (29%), India (25%), Indonesia (7%), Bangladesh (7%), and
Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu & Kashmir. The Vietnam (5%). China’s Rice production has increased by 52% since 1980-
region experiences low winter temperatures and a single crop of rice from 81, growing at a CAGR of 1%. In 2022-23, China’s rice production
May-July to September-December is grown.
decreased by 1.3% to 147 MMT. Indonesia’s rice production has
increased by 59% since 1980-81, growing at a CAGR of 1.1%. In 2022-23,
Indonesia’s rice production increased by 0.6% to 34.6 MMT. Bangladesh
Page 19 of 103
rice production has increased by 156% since 1980-81, growing at a

CAGR of 2.3%. In 2022-23, Bangladesh rice production decreased by 0.6%
to 35.6 MMT. Vietnam rice production has increased by 253% since
1980-81, growing at a CAGR of 3.1%. In 2022-23, Vietnam rice production
is estimated at 27.2 MMT, higher by 1% y-o-y.
Rice production in India has increased at a CAGR of 2.1% from 1980-81 to

2021-22. India’s Rice production in 2021-22 rose by 4.8% to 130.3 MMT
y-o-y. Rice is grown in both Kharif season (85% share) and Rabi season
(15% share). The major Rice producing states are West Bengal (14%), Uttar
Pradesh (13%), Punjab (10%), Odisha (7%), Telangana (6%), Tamil Nadu
(6%), Andhra Pradesh (6%), Chhattisgarh (6%), Bihar (6%) and Assam (4%).
In 2022-23 (Oct-Sep) Rice production is estimated at 117 MMT, lower by
10.2% y-o-y.
India’s rice consumption increased by 109% since 1980-81. Rice

consumption in India has increased at a CAGR of 1.8% from 1980-81 to
2021-22. India’s rice consumption in 2021-22 increased by 10% y-o-y to
111.3 MT. Consumption increased significantly because the government
has allocated around 28.5 MMT rice under the Pradhan Mantri Garib
Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) of which around 20.9 MMT is distributed. In
2022-23 crop year Rice consumption decreased by 3% to 108 MMT.
Meanwhile, during 2021-22 rice procurement by the central pool was 59.2
MMT and paddy was 88.2 MMT. The total rice distribution by Government
under various social schemes was 55.06 MMT during 2021-22. The central
pool rice procurement for 2022-2023 season is progressing well and it
reached 35.59 MMT and paddy procurement reached 53.08 MMT till
December 2022.
World Demand Trend World Trade Trend

Exports
Global Rice consumption during the 2021-2022 (Jul-Jun) Crop Year
increased by 3.9% y-o-y to 518.3 MMT. Meanwhile, in 2022-2023 Global Global Rice exports rose by 11.8% y-o-y in 2021-22 to a record 56.9 MMT
rice consumption is estimated at 515.6 MMT, lower by 0.5% y-o-y. Global while in 2022-23 exports are estimated at 53.7 MMT, lower by 5.7% y-o-y.
rice consumption has grown at a CAGR of 1.6% from 1980-81 to 2021-22. The major rice exporting countries which together comprise 78% export
Consumption increased significantly by 92% from 270.2 MMT in 1980-81 share in global rice exports are India (39%), Vietnam (13%), Thailand (13%),
to 518.3 MMT in 2021-22. The major consumers of rice which comprises Pakistan (8%), and the United States (5%).
of 69% share in global rice consumption are China (31%), India (20%),
Indonesia (7%), Bangladesh (7%), and Vietnam (4%). China’s rice
consumption has increased by 57% since 1980-81, growing at a CAGR of
1.1% from 1980-81 to 2021-22. In 2022-23, China’s rice consumption is
estimated at 155 MMT, lower by 0.9% y-o-y. Bangladesh rice consumption
has increased by 170% since 1980-81, growing at a CAGR of 2.5% from
1980-81 to 2021-22. In 2022-23, Bangladesh rice consumption is estimated
at 36.8 MMT, higher by 0.8% y-o-y. Indonesia’s Rice consumption has
increased by 66% since 1980-81, growing at a CAGR of 1.2% from 1980-81
to 2021-22. In 2022-23, Indonesia’s rice consumption is estimated at 35.5
MMT, higher by 0.6% y-o-y. Vietnam’s rice consumption has increased by
178% since 1980-81, growing at a CAGR of 2.5% from 1980-81 to 2021-22.
In 2022-23, Vietnam’s rice consumption is estimated at 21.5 MMT, flat y-o-
y.
In the last two decades, Indian rice exports have grown significantly to
become the world’s leading rice exporter following the government’s 2011
removal of its export ban on coarse rice. India’s rice exports have grown at
a CAGR of 8.1% since 1980-81. In 2020-21, Indian rice exports stood at
20.2 MMT, higher by 61.5% y-o-y. The export of coarse grain non-basmati
rice was 16.2 MMT and long-grain basmati rice was 4 MMT. The major
export destinations for Basmati exports were the Middle East countries like
Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, and
Oman. Other destinations were the United States and the United Kingdom.
The major export destinations for non-basmati rice were Bangladesh, the
African nations like Benin, Togo, Guinea, Somalia, Liberia, Djibouti, and
Page 20 of 103
South Africa. Meanwhile, the major destinations for broken rice export hold around 2% share. In China and India, the rice stock is mostly held by
were Senegal, China, Vietnam, Indonesia, Ivory Coast, Djibouti, and Nepal. Government as part of the nation’s food security policy.
In 2021-22, rice exports reached a record high of 22 MMT, higher by 8.8%
y-o-y. However, in September 2022, the Govt. has imposed a 20% export
duty on rice (excluding basmati and par-boiled rice) and banned broken
rice exports from India in order to ensure adequate availability of broken
rice for consumption by the domestic poultry industry and for other animal
feedstock, and to produce ethanol for successful implementation of
Ethanol blending program. This resulted in a slowdown of rice exports
from India. Meanwhile, in 2022-23 rice exports are estimated lower by
9.1% y-o-y to 20 MMT. Vietnam rice exports in 2022-23 are estimated at
7.4 MMT, flat y-o-y, Thailand rice exports are estimated at 8.5 MMT, up by
7.6% y-o-y, Pakistan rice exports are estimated at 4 MMT, lower by 16.7%
y-o-y and the United States rice exports are estimated at 2.19 MMT, down
by 16% y-o-y.
Imports
Global Rice imports rose by 17.4% y-o-y in 2021-22 to a record 54.47 MMT
while in 2022-23 exports are estimated to decline by 3.8% y-o-y. Global
rice imports have grown at a CAGR of 3.9% since 1980-81. The major ten Price Trend
importers of rice in the world are China (9%), the Philippines (6%), Nigeria
CBOT Rough Rice futures price gained by about 22.9% in 2022 over the
(4%), European Union (4%), Bangladesh (3%), Ivory Coast (3%), Saudi
last year and made high of USD 18.20 per cwt and low of USD 14.35 per
Arabia (2.9%), Iraq (2.6%), Iran (2.3%), and Senegal (2.3%). The Middle East,
cwt. Rice prices gained as overall grain complex prices traded on bullish
East & Southeast Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa countries comprises 72%
tone with inflationary pressure in global food prices amid lower production
global import share and are the regular importer of rice from the global
across key producing nations.
market.
Indian 1121 Rice prices gained by around 7% over the last year and made
high of Rs.8800 per quintal and low of Rs.7000 per quintal. In the first half
of 2021 prices traded mostly range-bound in between Rs.7000 to Rs.8500
Ending Stocks per quintal. In the second half of 2021, rice prices traded in the range of
Rs.8000 to Rs.8800 per quintal mostly supported by lower production and
Global Rice ending stock decreased by 3% y-o-y in 2021-22 to 188 MMT steady exports demand.
while in 2022-23 ending stock is estimated to drop by 7.5% y-o-y to 168.6
MMT. China holds around 61% share of the World’s rice ending stock
followed by India at 21% share, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines
Historical Prices-Rice 1121 Sella White Bundi (in Rs/Quintal) Historical Prices-Rough Rice CBOT (in US dollars-cents/cwt)
Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Jan 6612.5 6768.3 5346.2 5278.6 6608.3 Jan 12.0 10.5 13.3 12.9 14.6
Feb 6776.1 6864.6 5137.5 5114.7 6819.6 Feb 12.2 10.3 13.5 12.9 15.1
Mar 6766.7 6791.7 4835.3 5062.6 7288.0 Mar 12.3 10.8 13.5 13.1 15.9
Apr 6629.2 7128.6 5203.6 5181.0 7887.5 Apr 12.8 10.4 15.2 13.1 16.2
May 6363.5 7688.8 5210.4 5117.3 7866.7 May 12.2 11.0 16.5 13.5 17.0
Jun 6487.0 7718.8 5294.3 5076.9 8360.9 Jun 11.9 11.5 16.2 13.0 16.5
Jul 6599.0 7228.8 5286.8 5053.9 8484.0 Jul 12.0 11.8 13.4 13.2 16.6
Aug 6557.3 6769.6 5245.5 5203.0 8447.8 Aug 10.8 11.3 12.0 13.4 17.1
Sep 6705.7 6482.6 5050.0 5666.7 8345.5 Sep 10.3 12.0 12.4 13.5 17.4
Oct 6800.0 6606.7 4731.0 5961.4 8200.0 Oct 10.7 11.8 12.4 13.6 16.6
Nov 6913.0 5382.5 4789.5 6547.7 7769.2 Nov 10.8 12.0 12.4 13.9 17.7
Dec 6832.0 5542.0 5200.0 6680.0 7959.3 Dec 10.5 12.6 12.4 14.0 17.3
Crop Seasonality
Page 21 of 103
Price Seasonality
Crop Balance Sheet-Rice (in MMT)

Bangladesh 32.7 34.9 35.9 34.6 35.9 35.7

China 148.9 148.5 146.7 148.3 149.0 147.0
India 112.8 116.5 118.9 124.4 130.3 117.0
Production
Indonesia 37.0 34.2 34.7 34.5 34.4 34.6
Vietnam 27.7 27.3 27.1 27.4 26.9 27.2
World 494.8 498.2 499.2 509.3 515.0 503.3
Bangladesh 3.2 0.4 0.0 1.4 1.3 0.8
China 5.5 3.2 2.6 4.2 5.9 5.2
India 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Imports
Indonesia 2.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8
Vietnam 0.5 0.5 0.4 1.8 1.4 0.7
World 47.3 44.2 42.4 46.4 54.5 52.4
Bangladesh 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
China 1.4 2.8 2.6 2.2 2.1 2.2
India 12.0 10.4 12.5 20.2 22.0 20.0
Exports
Indonesia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Vietnam 6.6 6.6 6.2 6.3 7.4 7.4
World 47.9 44.2 43.4 50.9 56.9 53.7
Bangladesh 35.2 35.4 35.7 36.1 36.5 36.8
China 142.5 142.9 145.2 150.3 156.4 155.0
India 98.7 99.2 102.0 101.1 111.3 108.5
Consumption
Indonesia 37.0 36.3 36.0 35.4 35.3 35.5
Vietnam 21.5 21.2 21.3 21.5 21.5 21.5
World 481.2 485.1 493.0 498.9 518.3 515.6
Bangladesh 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.1 1.7
China 109.0 115.0 116.5 116.5 113.0 108.0
India 22.6 29.5 33.9 37.0 34.0 29.5
Ending Stocks
Indonesia 5.6 4.1 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.8
Vietnam 1.0 1.1 1.2 2.6 2.1 1.1
World 163.8 177.0 182.2 188.0 182.3 168.6
India Non-Basmati Exports

Year 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Qty ('000 MT) 3997.72 6687.99 7133.18 8274.05 6464.57 6770.80 8648.49 7599.67 5040.71 13149.16 17288.82
Value (Rs. Crore) 8659.13 14448.81 17749.96 20428.54 15483.39 16929.88 22967.82 21185.28 14364.66 35557.03 45725.42
Source: DGFT, GOI
India Basmati Exports

Year 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Qty ('000 MT) 3178.17 3459.90 3757.27 3702.26 4045.82 3985.20 4056.76 4414.58 4454.66 4630.17 3943.58
Value (Rs. Crore) 15449.60 19409.39 29299.96 27597.89 22718.60 21512.91 26870.17 32804.30 31025.88 29847.70 26390.22
Source: DGFT, GOI
Page 22 of 103
Page 23 of 103
Wheat
Brief Introduction
Wheat is a member of the grass family that produces a dry, one-seeded Importance of Wheat in the Indian Economy
fruit commonly called a kernel. Wheat is a highly nutritional and
Wheat contributes significantly to Indian foodgrain production with a
widely-cultivated cereal grain. The archaeological record suggests that
share of 35.5% of the total foodgrain and 38.7% of the total cereal
wheat was first cultivated in the regions of the Fertile Crescent around
production in the country. Currently, India ranks third with respect to the
9600 BCE. Botanically, the wheat kernel is a type of fruit called a caryopsis.
production of wheat in the world. The crop helped to earn valuable foreign
Wheat was introduced by the first English colonists and quickly became
exchange (USD$ 2,122 million in 2021-2022) by way of wheat exports.
the main cash crop of farmers who sold it to urban populations and
Wheat is the second most important staple food after rice consumed by
exporters. For over 7 centuries, wheat has been raised and harvested in
65% of the population in India and is likely to increase further due to
many countries around the world. Wheat is grown on more land area than
changes in food habits. Wheat is mostly consumed in the form of chapatti
any other food crop (222.1 million hectares, 2021). It’s one of the world’s
for which bread wheat is cultivated in nearly 95% of the cropped area.
most important crops and holds the title of the second most-produced
Durum wheat, which is most suitable for making macaroni, noodles,
grain in the world, just after corn. The major wheat-producing countries
semolina, and pasta products, occupies about 4 to 5% of the area and is
are China, European Union, India, Russia, the United States, Australia, and
predominantly grown in the Central and Peninsular parts of India.
Ukraine. Meanwhile, the major wheat-consuming countries are China,
European Union, India, Russia, the United States, Turkey, and Egypt.
Wheat is the main cereal crop in India. It is mainly a rabi (winter) season
crop in India. The total area under the crop is about 34.5 million hectares in World Supply Trend
the country. The production of wheat in the country has increased
Global wheat production during the 2021-2022 (Jul-Jun) crop year
significantly from 72.8 MMT in 2001-02 to an all-time record high of 109.5
increased by 0.62% year on year (y-o-y) basis to 779.3 MMT. Meanwhile,
MMT in 2020-21. The productivity of wheat which was 2762 kg/hectare in
in 2022-2023 Global wheat production is estimated at 780.6 MMT, higher
2001-02 has increased to 3460 kg/hectare in 2020-21. A major increase
by 0.16% y-o-y. Global wheat production has grown at a CAGR of 1.39%
in the productivity of wheat has been observed in the states of Haryana,
from 2000-01 to 2021-22. Production increased significantly by 78.8% from
Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh. Meanwhile, higher area coverage is reported
435.9 MMT in 1980-81 to 779.3 MMT in 2021-22. Australia’s wheat
from MP in the past three years. Indian wheat is largely a soft/medium-
production increased by 235% since 1980-81. While China’s wheat
hard, medium protein, white bread wheat, somewhat similar to U.S. hard
production has increased by 148% since 1980-81.
white wheat. Wheat grown in central and western India is typically hard,
with high protein and high gluten content. India also produces around
1.0–1.2MMT of durum wheat, mostly in the state of Madhya Pradesh. Most
Indian durum is not marketed separately due to segregation problems in
the market yards. However, some quantities are purchased by the private
trade at a price premium, mainly for the processing of higher value/
branded products.
The wheat crop has wide adaptability to climate. It can be grown in the
tropical and sub-tropical zones, the temperate zone, and the cold tracts of
the far north, beyond even the 60 ℃ north altitudes. Wheat can tolerate
severe cold and snow and resume growth with the setting in of warm
weather in spring. The best wheat is produced in areas favored with cool,
moist weather during the major portion of the growing period followed by
dry, warm weather to enable the grain to ripen properly. The optimum
temperature range for ideal germination of wheat seed is 20–25 ℃ though
the seeds can germinate in the temperature range of 3.5–35 ℃. Rains just
after sowing hamper germination and encourage seedling blight. During European Union wheat production increased by 106% since 1980. In the
the heading and flowering stages, excessively high or low temperatures meantime, India’s wheat production increased by 244% since 1980-81.
and drought are harmful to wheat. The wheat plant requires about 14–15℃
optimum average temperature at the time of ripening. The temperature
conditions at the time of grain filling and development are very crucial for
yield. Temperatures above 25 ℃ during this period tend to depress grain
weight. When temperatures are high, too much energy is lost through the
process of transpiration by the plants, and the reduced residual energy
results in poorer grain formation and lower yields. Wheat is grown in a
variety of soils in India. Soil with a clay loam or loam texture, good
structure, and moderate water holding capacity is ideal for wheat
cultivation. Heavy soil with good drainage is suitable for wheat cultivation
under dry conditions. These soils absorb and retain rainwater well. Heavy
soils with poor structure and poor drainage are not suitable as wheat is
sensitive to waterlogging. Wheat can be successfully grown on lighter soils
provided their water and nutrient holding capacity are improved. The
fertilizer requirement for optimum productivity is 120 kg nitrogen, 60 kg
phosphorus, and 30 kg potash per hectare.
Page 24 of 103
Wheat production in India has increased at a CAGR of 3% from 1980-81 to Exports

2021-22. India’s wheat production in crop year 2022-23 fell by 11% to 97.5
Global wheat exports fell marginally by 0.25% y-o-y in 2021-22 to 202.8
MMT y-o-y. The major wheat-producing states are Uttar Pradesh (32%),
MMT while in 2022-23 exports are estimated to increase by 3.96% y-o-y to
Madhya Pradesh (16%), Punjab (16%), Haryana (11%), Rajasthan (10%),
210.9 MMT. Meanwhile, wheat exports in 2022-23 would touch a record
Bihar (6%), and Gujarat (3%). In 2021-22 crop year wheat production
high number. The major wheat exporting nations in World are the
increased by 1.5% to 109.5 MMT. Meanwhile, in the current Rabi season, European Union with an 18% share of global exports, Russia with a share
Indian farmers have planted wheat in 33.22 million Ha area, higher by 0.7% of 17%, Australia and Ukraine with a 12% share each, the United States
y-o-y. The weather remains quite beneficial for crop growth to date. New- with a 11% share, Canada and Argentina with 7% share each. In 2022-23
season wheat crop (2022-23) is estimated in the range of 109 – 110 MMT, wheat exports from European Union would increase by 12.8% y-o-y to 36
higher by 13% y-o-y. MMT, Russia exports would increase by 30.3% to 43 MMT, Ukraine exports
would decrease by 33.67% y-o-y to 12.5 MMT, Australia exports would
remain unchanged y-o-y at 27.5 MMT, United States exports would decline
by 3.17% y-o-y to 21.1 MMT. Argentina exports would decrease by 53.8%
World Demand Trend y-o-y to 7.5 MMT and Canada exports would increase by 71.8% to 26
MMT. Indian Government has put a ban on wheat exports from India on
Global wheat consumption during the 2021-2022 (Jul-Jun) crop year May 2022 due to a spike in domestic wheat prices amid lower wheat
increased by 1.94% y-o-y to 788.8 MMT. Meanwhile, in 2022-2023 Global production and fall in central pool wheat procurement.
wheat consumption is estimated at 782.9 MMT, lower by 0.74% y-o-y.
Global wheat consumption has grown at a CAGR of 1.4% from 1980-81 to
2021-22. Consumption increased significantly by 77.8% from 443.5 MMT in Imports
1980-81 to 788.8 MMT in 2021-22. China’s wheat consumption has
increased by 95% since 1980-81. China’s wheat consumption increased at a Global wheat imports rose by 1.81% y-o-y in 2021-22 to 198.3 MMT while
CAGR of 1.6% from 1980-81 to 2021-22. European Union wheat in 2022-23 exports are estimated at 204.3 MMT, 3.05% higher y-o-y.
consumption increased by 95% since 1980-81. European Union wheat Meanwhile, wheat exports in 2022-23 would touch a record high number.
consumption increased at a CAGR of 1.64% from 1980-81 to 2021-22. In The major wheat importing nations in World are Egypt, Indonesia, China,
Turkey, Bangladesh & Iran, etc. In 2022-23 Egypt wheat imports would
the meantime, India’s wheat consumption increased by 220.1% since 1980-
decline by 7.4% y-o-y to 11.3 MMT, Iran imports would decrease by 24.7%
81. Wheat consumption in India has increased at a CAGR of 2.75% from
to 5.5 MMT, Indonesia imports would decrease by 2% to 11 MMT,
1980-81 to 2021-22. India wheat consumption in 2021-22 rose by +7.49%
Bangladesh imports would decrease by 5.4% to 6 MMT, China imports
to 109.9 MMT y-o-y. In the 2022-23 crop year wheat consumption
would decline by 0.7% to 9.5 MMT and Philippines imports would decrease
decreased by 5.35% to 104.0 MMT.
by 2.4% to 6.7 MMT.
Ending Stocks
Global wheat ending stock declined by 4.85% y-o-y in 2021-22 to 276.3
MMT while in 2022-23 ending stock is estimated lower by 3.24% y-o-y to
267.3 MMT. China holds around 54% share of global wheat ending stock at
144.4 MMT followed by United States share is 5.8% to 15.5 MMT while
India at 4.6% share to 12.3 MMT. In 2022-23, the United States ending
stock would decline by 14.67% to 15.5 MMT, Canada stocks would decline
by 38.3% to 3.67 MMT and China stocks would decline by 1.83% to 144.4
MMT. European Union stocks would decline by 22% to 10.4 MMT.
World Trade Trend
Price Trend
CBOT Wheat prices gained by around 2.76% over the last year, and made a
high of 1363.40 US cents/bushel & a low of 705.50 US cents/bushel. CBOT
wheat prices dropped by about 42% from the 2022’s and a record high of
1363.40 US cents/bushel till date. Wheat prices touched a life-time high of
1363.40 on 8th Mar 2022 fueled by the Russia-Ukraine war. However, prices
Page 25 of 103
fell by about 20% from Jun 2022 onwards as talks were going on to sign last quarter due to supply crunch of wheat in the domestic market coupled
the Black Sea corridor deal, which eased the supply chain constraints from with lower wheat stocks with the central pool, due to which the
the Black Sea caused by the war. Finally, the deal was signed on 22 nd July government did not sell wheat under the Open market sale scheme
2022 which helped to resume exports from Ukraine, taking away all the risk (OMSS). In Q4 2022, wheat prices jumped by 13% from the last quarter
premia from the prices. Meanwhile, prospect of better global supply in supported by festive demand coupled with tight supply situation of wheat
2023 will keep the prices benign in the International market. in the open market. Meanwhile, the wheat prices touched a record high of
Rs.2940 per quintal on 23 rd Dec 2022 and afterwards closed the year near
Indian wheat prices gained by about 33.6% y-o-y over the last year, and
Rs.2900 per quintal. It has been observed that the domestic wheat prices
made a high of Rs.2940 per quintal and a low of Rs.2175 per quintal. In Q1
have increased continuously in the second half of 2022 due to lower
2022, wheat prices jumped by 4.8% due to better exports demand from
domestic supplies in the market owing to an 11% drop in wheat
India backed by the global supply chain crisis on account of Russia-Ukraine
production coupled with higher exports. In addition to that the central
war. In Q2 2022, wheat prices turned mostly flat due to peak harvest
pool wheat stocks fell to nearly 5 years' low due to which wheat sale under
season coupled with Government measure to ban wheat exports to cool
OMSS scheme was stopped during April to December 2022.
off the domestic prices. In Q3 2022, wheat prices soared by 8.2% from the
Historical Prices-Wheat Delhi (in Rs/Quintal) Historical Prices-Wheat Kanpur (in Rs/Quintal)
Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Jan 1807.0 2103.8 2293.1 1941.8 2219.2 Jan 1668.3 2068.3 2151.1 1742.8 2054.0
Feb 1797.0 2101.3 2208.9 1924.2 2269.4 Feb 1669.7 2077.8 2097.0 1735.5 2086.8
Mar 1792.3 2097.6 2200.6 1886.8 2326.0 Mar 1667.3 2048.8 2031.5 1692.3 2177.4
Apr 1770.8 1952.6 1965.0 1918.6 2265.2 Apr 1656.8 1803.4 2031.5 1725.3 2139.2
May 1760.1 1958.2 1970.6 1893.5 2291.4 May 1653.0 1861.6 2031.5 1725.3 2147.9
Jun 1758.2 2009.2 1974.4 1821.0 2271.9 Jun 1643.8 1908.4 1901.5 1705.7 2129.9
Jul 1900.3 2084.3 1946.3 1832.3 2363.8 Jul 1839.0 1962.3 1868.8 1690.4 2295.6
Aug 1977.6 2153.5 1863.3 1936.8 2522.5 Aug 1885.9 2051.1 1722.6 1784.9 2478.3
Sep 2016.7 2165.2 1819.2 2070.7 2510.0 Sep 1919.9 2037.9 1681.8 1931.2 2444.7
Oct 2047.6 2217.0 1812.5 2141.9 2613.0 Oct 1939.4 2071.3 1636.9 1992.2 2494.4
Nov 2056.3 2265.6 1844.8 2165.7 2823.4 Nov 1963.7 2089.6 1687.0 2019.3 2674.6
Dec 2067.5 2275.9 1809.8 2190.0 2898.3 Dec 1994.6 2092.4 1606.1 2012.4 2772.3
Crop Seasonality
Price Seasonality
Page 26 of 103
Crop Balance Sheet-Wheat (in MMT)
Australia 20.9 17.6 14.5 31.9 36.3 36.6

China 134.2 131.4 133.6 134.3 136.9 138.0
European Union 136.7 123.1 138.8 126.7 138.2 134.3
India 98.5 99.9 103.6 107.9 109.6 103.0
Production
Russia 85.2 71.7 73.6 85.4 75.2 91.0
Ukraine 27.0 25.1 29.2 25.4 33.0 20.5
United States 47.4 51.3 52.6 49.8 44.8 44.9
World 761.6 730.9 761.5 774.5 779.3 780.6
Australia 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.2
China 3.9 3.1 5.4 10.6 9.6 9.5
European Union 6.1 5.8 5.6 5.4 4.6 7.0
India 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Imports
Russia 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3
Ukraine 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
United States 4.3 3.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 3.3
World 184.0 174.2 188.4 194.7 198.3 204.3
Australia 13.8 9.0 9.1 23.8 27.5 27.5
China 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9
European Union 24.9 24.7 39.8 29.7 31.9 36.0
India 0.6 0.5 0.5 2.6 8.0 6.3
Exports
Russia 41.4 35.9 34.5 39.1 33.0 43.0
Ukraine 17.8 16.0 21.0 16.9 18.8 12.5
United States 24.7 25.5 26.4 27.0 21.8 21.1
World 185.4 176.2 194.0 203.3 202.8 210.9
Australia 8.5 9.2 8.0 8.0 8.5 8.6
China 121.0 125.0 126.0 150.0 148.0 144.0
European Union 113.5 106.3 107.3 104.8 108.3 108.3
India 95.7 95.6 95.4 102.2 109.9 104.0
Consumption
Russia 43.0 40.5 40.0 42.5 42.8 45.0
Ukraine 9.8 8.8 8.3 8.7 10.0 9.7
United States 29.2 30.0 30.4 30.4 30.4 29.7
World 740.6 732.2 740.2 773.8 788.8 783.0
Australia 4.5 4.4 2.7 3.0 3.5 4.3
China 129.5 138.1 150.0 144.1 141.8 144.4
European Union 17.9 15.8 13.1 10.7 13.4 10.4
India 13.2 17.0 24.7 27.8 19.5 12.3
Ending Stocks
Russia 12.0 7.8 7.2 11.4 11.1 14.4
Ukraine 1.2 1.6 1.5 1.5 5.8 4.2
United States 29.9 29.4 28.0 23.0 18.2 15.5
World 285.9 282.5 298.2 290.3 276.3 267.3
India Wheat Imports

Year 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Qty ('000 MT) 0.02 2.94 11.27 27.97 516.17 5749.43 1649.72 2.75 1.88 0.00 0.05
Value (Rs. Crore) 0.08 6.03 26.92 58.74 870.00 8509.05 2357.84 5.44 4.63 0.01 0.18
Source: DGFT, GOI
India Wheat Exports

Year 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Qty ('000 MT) 740.75 6514.81 5562.37 2924.07 666.67 265.61 322.79 226.22 219.69 2154.96 7244.82
Value (Rs. Crore) 1023.3 10529.0 9261.6 4991.8 1061.8 447.9 624.37 425.0 439.1 4037.6 15845.5
Source: DGFT, GOI
Page 27 of 103
Page 28 of 103
Palm Oil
Brief Introduction
Palm Oil is an edible vegetable oil that is produced from the reddish pulp World Palm Oil Production has gone up by 73.50% from a production level
of the fruit of the oil palm trees. The oil palm trees can be grown only in of 44.51 MMT in 2008-2009 to 77.22 million metric tonnes in 2021-22.
the tropics, are native to the west coast of Africa that were brought to
South-East Asia just over 100 years ago. The fruit of the oil palm tree is
reddish, about the size of a large plum, and grows in large bunches.
Two types of oil can be derived from it. 1. Crude Palm Oil that is produced World Demand Trend
from squeezing the fleshy fruit or pulp of the fruit, and 2. Palm Kernel Oil
World consumption of palm oil is likely to grow by +7.0% y-o-y to a new
comes from crushing the Kernel seed or stone available in the middle of
record high of 76.04 MMT in the 2022-23 marketing year but it is revised a
the fruit. About 10% of the palm kernel oil is produced from the fruit of the
bit lower than USDA’s November 2022 forecast of 76.74 MMT. Indonesia,
oil palm tree but still, the oil extraction rate from a bunch varies from 17 to
India, China, and European Union are the world’s largest consumers of
27% for palm oil, and from 4 to 10% for palm kernels. Palm Kernel Oil is a
palm oil.
lighter oil that is used exclusively for food use.
Palm oil is also used as cooking oil worldwide but it is also commercially
used in many industries. It is also used in soaps, lipstick, paints, cosmetics,
detergents, ice creams, pizzas, doughnuts, chocolate, ointments,
deodorant, shampoo, toothpaste, and machinery lubricants. Around 70%
of personal care products contain ingredients derived from palm oil. Palm
oil is in nearly 50% of the packaged products we find in supermarkets or
malls.
Palm oil is a very versatile oil that has many properties and functions that
makes it so useful and so widely used. Palm oil, along with coconut oil, is
one of the few highly saturated vegetable fats and is semisolid at room
temperature. Palm Oil is resistant to oxidation that is why it can give
products a longer shelf-life and is stable at high temperatures that helps to
give fried products a crispy and crunchy texture.
Now, Indonesia and Malaysia are the largest producers with a share of over
83.8% of global supply but there are 42 other countries that also produce
palm oil.
Indonesia accounts for 20.8% of the world’s consumption, India accounts
Palm oil accounts for about 33% of the global oils produced and as for 11.5% of the world’s consumption, China accounts for 9.5% of the
compared to other vegetable oils, is a very efficient crop and able to world’s consumption, and the European Union accounts for 9%. Other
produce high quantities of oil over small areas of land, for almost a whole consumers of palm oil in the world are Pakistan, Malaysia, Thailand,
year. Nigeria, the United States, and Bangladesh. Indonesian consumption is
projected to increase by +1.1% y-o-y to a record-high consumption of
18.00 MMT in 2022-23. India’s consumption is projected to increase by
+9.8% y-o-y to 8.95 MMT in 2022-23. China’s consumption is estimated to
World Supply Trend increase by +28% y-o-y to a record high of 6.90 MMT in 2022-23.
European Union demand is likely to increase by +5.0% y-o-y to 5.30 MMT
in 2022-23.
World Palm Oil consumption has gone up by 76.07% from a consumption

level of 42.17 MMT in 2008-2009 to 74.25 MMT in 2021-22, growing at a
CAGR of 4.12%.
World Trade Trend
World Palm Oil production is projected to grow by +4.6% y-o-y to a record

high of 77.22 MMT in the 2022-23 marketing year but it is lower than
USDA’s November 2022 production forecast of 78.22 MMT for the same
period. World production has increased by over 39 times the production
level of 1.92 MMT noticed in the 1970s. Indonesia and Malaysia are the
world’s two major producers of palm oil. Indonesia accounts for 59% of the
world’s production and Malaysia accounts for 24.8% of the world’s
production. Other producers are Thailand with 4.1% of world production,
Colombia with 2.18% of world production, and Nigeria with 1.85% of world
production. Indonesian production is expected to increase by 5.32% y-o-y
World palm oil exports are likely to gain by +16.10% y-o-y to 50.88 MMT
to 45.5 MMT in 2022-23. Malaysian production is estimated to gain by
in 2022-23. The World’s largest exporters are Indonesia with a 57.6% share
+3.6% y-o-y to 18.8 MMT in 2022-23.
of world exports and Malaysia with a 31.7% share of world exports.
Page 29 of 103
World palm oil imports are likely to gain by +15.93% y-o-y to 49.49 MMT Triangle, forming a trap. But again, found support near Neckline/Support
in 2022-23. The World’s largest importers are India with a 17% share of line at MYR2270 in June 2020, and started notching northward direction.
world imports, China with a 14.3% share of world imports, and the Again, an attempt of breaching the resistance line and breaching the
European Union with a 13.3% share of world imports. January 2020 high of MYR3150 was made and this time was successful,
and the force was immense. Generally, it is observed that after the first
failed breakout, if again another attempt is made, that tends to have
stronger vigor to set a fresh trend. Now, this time prices had a bullish
breakout after passing 7 years within the Triangle, and also a breakout of
Double Top formed during the 2016 to 2020 period, and that time all the
parameters we use, like Super Trend, MACD, DMI, and averages, in the
monthly chart was hinting that trend would last longer.
The Year 2021
Prices had an opening at MYR3661 on 1 st January 2021, and made a low of

MYR3160 in the same month. But that was the low never seen again in the
whole year. And firing move continued till October 2021, though prices
cooled off for some time in between but all that was temporary pause
only. In October 2021 prices made a lifetime high of MYR5220/tonne.
Reasons more or less were similar to soybean or any other commodities
but there were three key factors, which were weather conditions,
Indonesia’s aggressive biofuel program, and labor shortages in producing
Price Trend countries. The biggest one was labor shortages in Malaysia and Indonesia,
Commodities were in the bear market from 2013 to 2019, and Palm Oil which are major producers and suppliers of palm oil in the world. Several
prices were not immune to it. In the last bull run (Period: 2001-2012) CPO palm oil mills in these countries were temporarily closed as workers were
prices gained from MYR1252 in January 2005 to hit a record high of falling ill due to the Covid-19 pandemic, and they also faced a shortage of
MYR4486 in March 2008. During that period, prices had a journey of about oxygen and pills similar to that of India in April and May 2021. Malaysia’s
258% and in the last leg of this bull market prices tried to revise this high palm oil sector is largely dependent on migrant foreign workers. The
but couldn’t make it possible. Prices, after making of high of MYR3967 in covid-19 pandemic led to borders closure due to which the palm oil sector
February 2011, joined the hands of other commodities and went into bear
faced a severe labor shortage, causing the output to fall. In Indonesia, the
market silence for a long Period (2013-2019). This bear market was
biodiesel program requires fossil fuels to be blended with 30% palm oil.
favorable for major oil-consuming nations and their end user’s pockets.
This increased domestic demand for palm oil took the prices to an
And that was also rosy days for the Indian context as India is the second-
largest consumer of Palm oil after Indonesia. elevated level.
During the 2013-2019 period, prices were caught in the Descending The Year 2022 was the year of record high prices, later a year of bear-
Triangle Pattern in the Monthly Chart. Formed a base near MYR1900 market-run
trajectory. which is known as a horizontal support line by the charting Crude Palm Oil started the year 2022 with a strong bullish tone
technicians. Violation of this was necessary for the extension of a corrective underpinned by the flood in Malaysia, causing temporary supply disruption
wave but historically prices try to form a higher base for the long-term and lower soybean crops in South America due to drought, and that rally
after adjusting inflation and time value in it. Hence, it was clear during this continued till March 09, 2022. In late February, worries over sunflower oil
period of the bear market, prices were not going to fall or even if fall were supplies due to the Russia-Ukraine standoff boiled all the oil so was the
not going to sustain below MYR1900. And long-term traders somewhere case of CPO, which got added fire. There was a bit of profit booking in
were looking to take long positions in this commodity as and when prices March 2022 on account of easing sunflower oil supply worry and
came in the close proximity of MYR1900 to the reap benefit of a minor increasing Palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia. But prices
rally which normally occurs in the bear market too. And that happened like started notching higher once again in April and tried to revisit the record
history in this period as well, prices jumped towards MYR2800-MYR3000 high of MYR7268/tonne touched on March 09, 2022, after Indonesia
on several occasions, like March 2014, March 2016, January 2017, and announced the confused decision of CPO and its products export ban in
October 2019. We had talked about the formation of the Triangle Pattern the last week of April 2022. They had to withdraw their export ban
in the Monthly Chart and its Support line. Now, we will talk about the decision within a fortnight’s time as they didn’t have a storage capacity
resistance line of this pattern, which is drawn by extending the previous and production was on the rising trend. Indonesia’s decision of restoring
two-three lower highs. Prices made a high of MYR4486 in March 2008, exports came as a bearish market signal for palm oil, which became
MYR3967 in February 2011, MYR3638 in April 2012, and MYR3202 in instrumental in dragging the other oil and oilseeds down. In fact, CPO was
December 2016. If we draw lines from these highs, we would get a also instrumental in 2020 in setting up a bull run in the complex also and
downward sloping resistance line and near it, prices were topping most of this time resuming a bearish market. Prices were caught in the bear’s grip
the time. Descending Triangle is a bearish reversal pattern, and has great from June to September, where prices showed a one-sided correction from
value if it is made in the Bull Market or made after a considerable amount MYR6600/tonne to MYR3220/tonne, eroding 55.5% from the record high
of up move. But if it is formed in the bear market near lows, we generally at one point in time. Prices remained sideways or dull from October 2022
take this as a counter opportunity for going long as nothing comes for free to December 2022 due to higher supply and showed movement in the
in this market, everything has some intrinsic value, and commodities 3500-4500 range. Prices ended in 2022 with a loss of -11% at
especially do have. MYR4174/tonne.
Prices first breached the resistance line in January 2020, and hit a high of
MYR3150 but couldn’t sustain it and again entered within Descending
Page 30 of 103
Historical Prices-CPO BMD (in MYR/tonne) Historical Prices-CPO Kandla (in Rs/10 Kgs)
Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Jan 2509.9 2135.3 2962.0 3769.6 5429.7 Jan 419.1 370.6 566.5 742.0 1049.0
Feb 2516.3 2128.4 2674.7 3920.7 6106.2 Feb 430.6 384.0 488.8 762.4 1199.6
Mar 2437.5 2013.0 2396.6 4091.1 6934.1 Mar 422.3 353.9 427.9 841.3 1488.6
Apr 2401.5 2070.0 2257.5 4268.9 6877.4 Apr 422.7 369.0 475.0 895.9 1441.5
May 2406.0 1971.7 2164.9 4556.5 6883.3 May 432.0 352.6 476.8 907.7 1491.9
Jun 2332.1 1975.4 2459.1 3811.4 5763.6 Jun 424.4 345.1 520.2 821.9 1244.6
Jul 2178.6 1924.3 2606.9 4245.2 4010.7 Jul 415.7 341.9 511.4 863.0 1076.5
Aug 2186.5 2128.9 2823.6 4554.9 4137.5 Aug 394.0 380.4 534.3 954.3 1067.0
Sep 2172.4 2124.4 2937.2 4600.2 3596.5 Sep 398.0 378.9 553.4 938.1 807.4
Oct 2107.1 2194.8 3032.3 5152.0 3744.2 Oct 385.3 386.1 568.5 1024.8 834.5
Nov 1884.1 2547.4 3460.9 5337.9 4059.9 Nov 342.0 451.8 646.8 1052.0 873.2
Dec 1937.1 2843.5 3684.7 5094.8 3923.3 Dec 330.6 520.5 708.6 1014.8 828.1
Price Seasonality
Crop Balance Sheet-Palm Oil (in MMT)

Particulars Country 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Indonesia 41.50 42.50 43.50 43.20 45.50
Malaysia 20.80 19.26 17.85 18.15 18.80
Production
Thailand 3.03 2.65 2.96 3.15 3.26
World 74.18 73.03 73.08 73.83 77.22
Indonesia 0.08 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Malaysia 1.06 0.79 1.30 1.24 1.30
Imports
Thailand 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
World 50.54 47.48 47.53 42.69 49.49
Indonesia 28.28 26.25 26.87 22.32 28.50
Malaysia 18.36 17.21 15.88 15.53 16.50
Exports
Thailand 0.27 0.22 0.61 0.83 0.65
World 51.75 48.49 48.19 43.79 50.89
Indonesia 13.49 14.60 15.70 17.80 18.00
Malaysia 3.52 3.56 3.24 3.30 3.62
Consumption
Thailand 2.51 2.49 2.51 2.51 2.64
World 70.94 71.07 73.12 71.12 76.00
Indonesia 2.91 4.58 5.50 8.58 7.58
Malaysia 2.45 1.72 1.76 2.32 2.30
Ending Stocks
Thailand 0.58 0.54 0.38 0.20 0.18
World 14.88 15.83 15.13 16.74 16.57
Page 31 of 103
Malaysia Palm Oil Production and Exports (in MMT)
Malaysia Palm Oil Production (in MMT)

Month 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
Jan 1.25 1.13 1.17 1.74 1.59 1.28 1.13 1.16 1.51 1.60 1.29
Feb 1.14 1.11 1.29 1.54 1.34 1.26 1.04 1.12 1.28 1.30 1.19
Mar 1.41 1.42 1.40 1.67 1.57 1.46 1.22 1.50 1.50 1.33 1.21
Apr 1.46 1.53 1.65 1.65 1.56 1.55 1.30 1.69 1.56 1.37 1.27
May 1.46 1.57 1.65 1.67 1.53 1.65 1.36 1.81 1.66 1.38 1.38
Jun 1.55 1.61 1.89 1.51 1.33 1.51 1.53 1.76 1.57 1.42 1.47
Jul 1.57 1.53 1.81 1.74 1.50 1.83 1.59 1.82 1.67 1.67 1.69
Aug 1.73 1.71 1.86 1.82 1.62 1.81 1.70 2.05 2.03 1.74 1.66
Sep 1.77 1.70 1.87 1.84 1.85 1.78 1.72 1.96 1.90 1.91 2.00
Oct 1.81 1.73 1.72 1.80 1.96 2.01 1.68 2.04 1.89 1.97 1.94
Nov 1.68 1.63 1.49 1.54 1.85 1.94 1.57 1.65 1.75 1.86 1.89
Dec 1.62 1.45 1.33 1.33 1.81 1.83 1.47 1.40 1.36 1.67 1.78
Total 18.45 18.12 19.14 19.86 19.52 19.92 17.32 19.96 19.67 19.22 18.79
Source: Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC)
Malaysia Palm Oil Exports (in MMT)

Month 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
Jan 1.16 0.95 1.21 1.68 1.47 1.29 1.28 1.19 1.37 1.64 1.39
Feb 1.11 0.90 1.09 1.32 1.24 1.11 1.09 0.97 1.35 1.40 1.22
Mar 1.28 1.19 1.18 1.62 1.57 1.27 1.34 1.19 1.25 1.54 1.33
Apr 1.07 1.35 1.24 1.65 1.53 1.28 1.17 1.18 1.27 1.46 1.33
May 1.37 1.27 1.37 1.72 1.29 1.51 1.28 1.63 1.42 1.41 1.41
Jun 1.19 1.42 1.71 1.40 1.13 1.38 1.14 1.70 1.48 1.41 1.53
Jul 1.33 1.40 1.78 1.49 1.20 1.40 1.38 1.61 1.45 1.45 1.29
Aug 1.30 1.17 1.58 1.74 1.10 1.49 1.82 1.61 1.44 1.53 1.44
Sep 1.42 1.61 1.61 1.41 1.62 1.52 1.46 1.68 1.64 1.61 1.51
Oct 1.51 1.42 1.67 1.64 1.58 1.54 1.44 1.71 1.61 1.66 1.78
Nov 1.52 1.47 1.30 1.41 1.38 1.36 1.37 1.50 1.51 1.53 1.66
Dec 1.47 1.41 1.64 1.40 1.38 1.43 1.27 1.48 1.52 1.52 1.65
Total 15.72 15.56 17.40 18.47 16.49 16.56 16.05 17.45 17.31 18.15 17.55
Source: Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC)
Page 32 of 103
Groundnut
Brief Introduction
Groundnuts, which are mainly and popularly known as peanuts in the • Kadiri 3 variety, which is initially produced in Andhra Pradesh, now
world, is a legume or bean crops despite being called a nut, and are the is spread to the whole country, having a maturity period of
edible seeds of a plant from the pea family. It is also known as earth nuts, 100-110 days and the average yield is ranging in 17–20
monkey nuts, goober peas, pygmy nuts, and pig nuts. It is widely believed quintals/hectare. Seeds are also suitable for the summer season,
that groundnuts or peanuts first originated, domesticated, and cultivated are medium-sized & oblong in shape, contain around 44.7% of oil,
in the valleys of Paraguay and then in Brazil. It was first introduced to the and the shelling percentage is around 72.
US from Africa and ancient south Americans were the first to grind peanuts • T 64 variety of groundnuts is popularly grown in the state of Uttar
to make peanut butter. Pradesh, the maturity period ranges between 115-120 days with
dark green foliage. Seeds give a yield of 20-25 quintals/hectare
Groundnuts or peanuts are widely grown in the tropics & subtropics and
and, have 49% of oil content with 70% shelling.
are classified as both a grain legume and, due to their high oil content an
• Chitra is again a quite popular variety of Uttar Pradesh, having a
oil crop. Atypically among legume crop plants, peanut pods develop
maturity period of 108-112 days, and the yield ranges between
underground rather than above ground. Peanuts are similar in taste and
25-30 quintals/hectare. Seeds contain 49% of oil with 72% shelling.
nutritional profile to tree nuts such as walnuts and almonds. Groundnut
• TG –17 is best suited for cultivation in Maharashtra for the
has a rich nutty flavor, sweet taste, crunchy texture, and over and above a
summer season, the yield of this variety is 20-27 quintals/hectare,
relatively long shelf life.
and the seed is light pink in color with 49% oil content, and 69%
The botanical definition of a nut is a fruit whose ovary wall becomes hard shelling.
at maturity. Parts of groundnuts include 1. shell which is the outer covering • A.K-12-24 is a bunch type suggested for parts of Maharashtra,
and in contact with dirt 2. cotyledons(two) which is the main edible part 3. Odisha & Madhya Pradesh, and even for Rajasthan. Seeds give an
seed coat which is the brown paper-like covering of the edible oil part 4. average yield of 12–15 quintals/ hectare, have high adaptability,
radicle which is the embryonic root at the bottom of the cotyledon and can and are suited for medium to heavy soils. This variety of seeds
be snapped off 5. plumule that is embryonic shoot emerging from the top contains 48.5% Oil, and 75% shelling.
of the radicle. • Vikram variety is cultivated throughout the country, having yield
about 20-25 quintals/hectare. The seeds contain 46.5% of oil &
There are many peanut cultivars grown around the world. The market 68% shelling.
classes grown in the United States are Spanish, Runner, Virginia, and • Karad 4-11 is popularly grown in Satara, Sangali, Kolhapur,
Valencia. Solapur & Pune districts of Maharashtra, having a maturity period
of 145 days, and can be grown in both Rabi as well as Kharif
India is the second-largest producer of groundnuts in the world after
seasons. The yield is estimated between 10-20 Quintal/hectare,
China, both account for 70% of the world’s production. Groundnuts
and the seeds contain 48% of oi l& 72% shelling.
have protein content (24-35%) and 40 to 49% oil content.
• Kopergaon 1 is suitable for cultivation in the Sangli and Kolhapur
About 41% of the world’s groundnut crop is used for oil production, districts of Maharashtra, having maturity period of 120 days, and it
whereas 45% is used directly as human food. Groundnut kernels, usually can also be grown in both Rabi and Kharif seasons. Seeds have a
cooked or toasted, are appreciated worldwide as a flavourful snack food, yield of about 15-20 quintal/hectare, oil content of seeds is 48%,
nutritionally dense due to their high energy, protein, and fat content. and 72% shelling. Kopergaon 3 is a bunch type variety of
Groundnuts are also the primary ingredient of many finished products Groundnuts, recommended for cultivation in western Maharashtra.
such as peanut butter, confections, nutritional bars, and are used in It is an early maturing variety and suitable to grow under irrigated
numerous dishes. conditions. The yield potential of this variety is 13-18
Quintal/hectare, the oil content is 47%, and the shelling is 70%.
Groundnut is the major oilseed crop in India. It plays a major role in • Other main Groundnut varieties produced in India are BG-1, BG-2,
bridging the vegetable oil deficit in the country. Groundnuts are an Kuber, GAUG-1, GAUG-10, PG-1, T-64, Chandra, Kaushal, Parkash,
important protein crop in India grown mostly under rain-fed conditions. Amber.
There are two groundnut growing seasons in India: Kharif and Rabi but the
Kharif season accounts for about 85-90 percent of the total production.
The Kharif crop is typically planted in late June and harvested in late
October, and grown primarily in Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, and
Maharashtra. The Rabi crop is planted from late October through January,
World Supply Trend
harvested in April, and grown in the southern regions of Tamil Nadu, World Peanut production is expected to remain steady by y-o-y at 50.32
Karnataka, and Telangana. MMT in the crop year 2022-23. World peanut oil production is expected to
Groundnuts need good sunshine and high temperature to produce more remain steady y-o-y to 6.5 MMT in the crop year 2022-23 while it was 6.55
pods. Therefore, summer is the ideal season for groundnut cultivation in the previous crop year. China and India are the largest producers of
wherever irrigation facilities are available, and soil is suitable. Groundnut is peanut oil. China accounts for 50% of the world’s production of peanuts
raised in rabi season on a limited scale in areas where winter is not severe, oil, and India accounts for 20%.
and night temperatures do not go below 15oC.
The major growing states are Gujarat, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Andhra
Pradesh, and Karnataka. While other key producing states are Madhya
Pradesh, Maharashtra, Telangana, West Bengal, and Uttar Pradesh. Gujarat
is the largest producer with a 46.68% share of the total groundnut
production in India, Rajasthan accounts for 16.3% of the total groundnuts
production, Tamil Nadu accounts for 10.4%, Andhra Pradesh accounts for
8.53%, and Karnataka for 5.05%.
Main varieties of groundnut produced in India

• Kadiri 2 is suitable to be grown in Andhra Pradesh, having a
maturity period of 115-125 days, and the yield ranges 17-20
quintals/hectare. The seeds are medium-sized, brownish rose in
color, and the oil percentage in seeds is around 43.75%. It is
efficient in fixing atmospheric nitrogen, and the shelling
percentage of this variety is 76.
Page 33 of 103
India Groundnut production is projected to fall by -16% y-o-y to 7.00 MMT India has emerged as the largest exporter of groundnut in the world with
for the crop year 2022-23 due to 22% lower crop from the ace-producing an 18.6% share followed by the USA (18.5%) and China (11.3%) during the
state Gujarat. India’s groundnut oil production is expected to drop by - year 2018. India exported 6.39 lakh tonnes of groundnut worth Rs5381.6
0.9% y-o-y to 1.27 MMT in the 2023-23 year. Production of Groundnut in crore or $727.40 million during the year 2020-21 versus exports of 6.64
India has increased at a CAGR of 1.31 percent from 8.127 MMT in 2003-04 lakh tonnes of groundnut worth Rs.5096.4 crores during the year 2019-20.
to 10.146 MMT in 2020-21.
India exported groundnuts to around 92 counties in 2020-21, and major
exporting destinations were Indonesia, Vietnam, China, Philippines
Malaysia, Thailand, UAE, Russia, Ukraine, and Nepal. Indonesia accounts for
33% of the total groundnut exports from India, Vietnam accounts for 21%
World Demand Trend of the total groundnuts exports from India, China accounts for 10.6% of
the total groundnut exports from India, the Philippines accounts for 7.4%,
Malaysia accounts for 5.9%, Thailand accounts for 5.8%, UAE accounts for
2.2%, Russia accounts for 1.9%, Ukraine accounts for 1.8% and Nepal
accounts for 1.4% of the total groundnuts exports from India.
Price Trend
Groundnut Expeller-Junagardh prices ended 2021 with a loss of about
-5.5% after posting a return of about 18% in 2020. While Groundnut
Shell- Junargardh posted a return of just over 10% in 2021 after posting a
positive return of 5% in 2020. Prices of both the varies faced a sell-off in
the last quarter of 2021 following the weakness across the Oil and Oilseeds
complex. Groundnut Expeller prices hit a record high of Rs.1620 per 20 kg
on 4th April 2021, afterward tried to reach the same level in September
2021, and since then caught in the southward movement, and settled the
year 2021 around Rs1275 per 20 kg. Groundnut Shell prices hit a record
World peanut crush is likely to drop marginally to 20.03 MMT in the crop high of Rs.1620 per 20 kg on 22nd April 2021, and then consolidated till
year 2022-23 from a crush of 20.19 MMT in the previous crop year. World September 2021, and afterward resumed a weakness and settled the year
peanuts oil consumption is expected to remain unchanged at 6.51 MMT in at about Rs.1080 per 20 kg.
the crop year 2022-23. China and India are the largest consumers of
The year 2022 - groundnut remained immune from sell-off in oil and
peanut oil. China accounts for 54.6% of the world’s consumption of
oilseed segment, posted decent gains on lower crop size…
peanuts oil, and India accounts for 17.8% of the world’s consumption of
peanuts oil. India’s groundnut oil consumption is expected to drop by - Groundnut seed ended 2022 with a return of 25% and closed near 2022’s
2.1% y-o-y to 1.16 MMT in the 2022-23 year. high at Rs.7,500/quintal. Prices gained on account of -16% lower crop
production in the crop year 2022-23, mainly on account of -22% lower
crop from Gujarat, the largest producing belt in India. Prices neglected the
steep selloff in the oil and oilseed segment and ended the year 2022 on a
World Trade Trend high. Groundnut expeller posted a gain of 23% while, Groundnut shell has
a gain of 18% in 2022. Whereas, groundnut oil remained at an elevated
World peanut export is expected to grow by 7% y-o-y to 4.60 MMT in the level and ended 2022 with a whopping 25% gain.
crop year 2022-23 while, import is likely to grow by 10.3% y-o-y to 4.29
MMT in the crop year 2022-23.
Historical Prices-Groundnut Expeller Junagarh (in Rs/20kg) Historical Prices-Groundnut Shell Junagarh (in Rs/20kg)
Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Jan 896.1 964.0 1102.0 1374.2 1286.7 Jan 738.6 814.3 924.2 1021.8 1094.0
Feb 824.4 924.3 1114.2 1433.8 1335.4 Feb 712.4 805.8 931.9 1111.8 1134.9
Mar 804.4 941.5 1208.1 1505.2 1543.6 Mar 685.4 818.0 991.9 1165.8 1244.8
Apr 800.2 964.9 1208.1 1570.4 1576.7 Apr 663.7 834.6 991.9 1233.0 1264.3
May 799.6 1019.3 1352.1 1518.1 1583.1 May 664.4 864.4 1063.5 1207.6 1235.4
Jun 800.2 1044.9 1327.3 1403.5 1566.3 Jun 670.4 864.8 1060.5 1138.1 1227.9
Jul 828.8 1137.9 1282.4 1398.7 1595.2 Jul 687.2 903.5 1019.5 1181.3 1272.5
Aug 892.4 1109.5 1215.6 1482.2 1630.9 Aug 742.5 893.1 965.0 1283.7 1285.3
Sep 841.0 1055.6 1236.7 1539.4 1636.2 Sep 701.7 877.2 971.7 1247.8 1258.8
Oct 892.2 1012.7 1287.7 1412.5 1621.2 Oct 732.8 866.9 991.0 1101.9 1238.3
Nov 950.8 980.4 1333.5 1343.7 1515.0 Nov 822.4 848.1 975.8 1080.7 1201.6
Dec 961.5 1061.7 1345.7 1263.1 1538.7 Dec 809.8 868.1 975.6 1079.8 1234.6
Crop Seasonality
Page 34 of 103
Note: Production/Supply is in ‘000 tonnes
Page 35 of 103
Mustard
Brief Introduction
The Mustard, a key member of the oilseeds family, is also known as Rape,
Rapeseeds, Rape mustard seed, and Canola. Mustard is the third leading
World Supply Trend
source of oil in the world after soybean and palm oil. Mustard seeds are a World
rich source of oil and protein. Mustard seeds contain about 40% oil,
and 43% protein depending on the growing condition and varieties. World Mustard seed production is projected to gain by +14.0% y-o-y to a
Mustard is known for its nutritional qualities and its very low level of record high of 84.3 MMT in 2022-23 due to sharp higher supplies from
saturated fat. Canada and higher supplies from India and European Union. The largest
producers of mustard seeds in the world are European Union (25%), China
The use of mustard seeds as a spice has been known from the ancient
(20.2%), Canada (18.2%), and India (13.7%). World Mustard seed
times and is described in Indian texts dating back to 3000BCE. It is believed
production has gone up by 45% from a production level of 58.17 MMT in
to have originated in Egypt, and the Greeks used Mustard as a medicine.
2008-2009 to 84.3 MMT in 2022-23.
The Romans emulated the Greeks using it as both food and medicine as
well. The Romans brought Mustard to France where it was cultivated and
used by Monks. The oil from the mustard seed were used in India and
China for cooking and lamp oil. Canadian plant breeders from the
University of Manitoba invented canola in the 1970s by genetically altering
mustard seed. Mustard seeds are also used in Nepal, Sri Lanka,
Bangladesh, and Pakistan as spice from old times.
Mustard is identified as a shrub because its stalks look like a tree. Mustard
seeds are usually about 1 to 2 millimeters in size. Although there are at
least forty species of mustard, mainly three categories are produced: black
mustard (Brassica nigra), brown Indian mustard (Brassica juncea), and
white/yellow mustard (Brassica hirta).
Mustard has variety of uses. It is used as an ingredient in pickles (e.g.

Mango, Chilli, Lemon, and others) from old times in India, sauces,
mayonnaise, and also used as a condiment with various foods, particularly
meats, sausages, and salad dressings. In history, mustard was also used for
medicinal and poultices purpose by many countries. Mustard leaves are
stir-fried and still eaten as a vegetable in many states of India. It is also World Mustard Oil production is projected to increase by +8.8% y-o-y to a
used for body massage in Maharashtra and Kerala. Mustard oil is the fresh record high of 31.65 MMT in 2022-23. The largest producers of
predominant cooking medium in Bengali cuisine. Yellow mustard is very mustard oil in the world are European Union (31.9%), China (22.2%),
popular in the United States and is often used as a condiment in Canada (12.5%), and India (11.6%). World Mustard Oil production has gone
sandwiches and other dishes. up by 48.2% from a production level of 21.35 MMT in 2008-2009 to 31.65
Mustard, the unusual among spices, is a winter crop and mainly grown and MMT in 2022-23.
prosper in the temperate regions of the world. It is mainly produced in
China, India, Canada and European Union. In India, Rajasthan is the major
producing state, which accounts for 46-48% of the total India production.
Haryana (12.6%), Madhya Pradesh (11.4%), and Uttar Pradesh (10.5%) are
other major producing states.
• Top five districts in Rajasthan are Alwar, Tonk, Bharatpur and Sawai
Madhopur.
• Top five districts in Haryana are Bhiwani, Mahendragargh, Rewari,
Hisar and Sirsa.
• Top five districts in Uttar Pradesh are Agra, Mathura, Badaun,
Aligargh and Kheri.
• Top five districts in Madhya Pradesh are Morena, Bhind, Shoepur,
Gwailor, Mandsur.
• India’s top 20 mustard producing districts are Alwar, Tonk,
Bharatpur, Ganga Nagar, Morena, Bhind, S madhopur, Bhiwani,
Jodhpur, Bikaner, Mahendragarh, Rewari, Hanumangargh, Jaipur,
Hisar, Dholpur, Jhunjhunu, Sirsa, Churu and Dausa.
Mustard seeds generally take eight to ten days to germinate if placed World Mustard meal production is projected to increase by +7% y-o-y to
under the proper conditions, which include a cold atmosphere and 44.74 MMT in 2022-23, which is the new record high for the second
relatively moist soil. Brown mustard has a plant maturity of 90 to 95 days consecutive year. The largest producers of mustard meal in the world are
whereas, yellow mustard has a plant maturity of 85 to 90 days. Brown and European Union (30.2%), China (23.3%), India (12.8%), and Canada (12.5%).
black varieties of mustard generally have higher yields as compared to
yellow mustard.
The planting season or the sowing period in India is during the Rabi
season i.e. October to November. The crop starts flowering in November,
December, January, and February. The harvesting period is from February
to March. It needs the right proportion of rainfall during the sowing
seasons of the crop.
Page 36 of 103
World Mustard Oil consumption is estimated to gain by +4.8% y-o-y to

30.80 MMT in 2022-2023 versus consumption of 29.42 MMT reported in
India 2021-22. The largest consumers of mustard oil in the world are European
• India Mustard seed production is projected to remain at an Union (31%), China (28.8%), and India (11.3%). World mustard Oil
elevated level at /around 11 MMT in 2022-23. We expect a consumption has gone up by 46.70% from a consumption level of 21 MMT
bumper mustard crop this year and pegs its estimate between
in 2008-2009 to 30.80 MMT in 2022-23.
11.0-11.5 MMT.
• India Mustard oil production is projected to rise by +1.5% y-o-y to
3.8 MMT in 2022-23.
• India Mustard meal production is projected to increase by +1.2%
y-o-y to 5.95 MMT in 2022-23.
Production of mustard seed in India has increased at a CAGR of 3.02

percent from 6.291 MMT in 2003-04 to 11 MMT in 202-23.
World Demand Trend
World Mustard Meal consumption is estimated to fall by +6.25% y-o-y to

44.21 MMT in 2022-2023. The Largest consumer of mustard Meal in the
world is European Union (30%), China (28%), and India (9.6%).
India
• India Mustard seed consumption is projected to rise by +1.4% y-
o-y to 11.00 MMT in 2022-23.
• India Mustard oil consumption is projected to rise by +4.3% y-o-y
to 3.90 MMT in 2022-23.
World Mustard seed consumption is estimated to increase by +6.6% y-o-y • India Mustard meal consumption is projected to increase by
to 80.70 MMT in 2022-2023. The largest consumers of mustard seed in the +11.2% y-o-y to 4.95 MMT in 2021-22.
world are European Union (30.5%), China (22.8%), India (13.2%), and
Canada (12.2%). World mustard seed consumption has gone up by 46.70%
from a consumption level of 54.99 MMT in 2008-2009 to 80.70 MMT in
2022-23. World Trade Trend
Page 37 of 103
World Mustard Seed Exports are estimated to gain by +20.40% y-o-y to

17.70 MMT in 2022-2023. World Mustard Seed Imports are estimated to
gain by +20.4% y-o-y to 16.5 MMT in 2022-2023.
Price Trend
World Mustard Oil Exports are estimated to gain by +29.50% y-o-y to 6.81
MMT in 2022-2023. World Mustard Oil Imports are estimated to gain by Mustard prices too were into Bear Market Cycle like soybean, soybean oil,
+28.00% y-o-y to 6.53 MMT in 2022-2023. soybean meal, and other commodities within the Oil and Oilseeds
segment. Prices were moving silently in the horizontal channel of
World Mustard Meal Exports are estimated to increase by +8.30% y-o-y to Rs.3000-Rs.5200 per quintal from November 2011 to July 2020 period. But
8.23 MMT in 2022-2023. World Mustard Meal Imports are estimated to boiling rallies across the agricultural commodities and specifically in oil and
gain by +5.5% y-o-y to 8.02 MMT in 2021-2022. oilseeds started to underpin a strong up move in the prices of mustard
seed. The reasons were similar, supply-side disruption. Mustard prices
gained about 21 percent in NCDEX future and about 25 percent to 30
percent in key mandis in India in 2020. And that rally was exacerbated in
2021 when prices continued to soar one-sided from February 2021 to
September 2021 period.
During this period, prices gained from Rs.5000 per quintal mark to a record
high of Rs.8909 per quintal, which was hit on 9th September 2021, making
a YTD gain of about 78% that time. Of late, like Soybean, it also started
softening and ended 2021 at Rs.7056 per quintal, with a double-digit gain
of about 25 percent in NCDEX future, and in key mandis yearly gains were
around 20 percent.
The year 2022 too witnessed higher volatility but prices turned
bearish in H2, 2022
Mustard seed prices rallied in the first half despite higher domestic
production, mirroring the rally in CPO, Soybean, sunflower, and other
seeds and oils. The new crop bottomed out near Rs.6,600/quintal and
started notching higher even during the peak arrival period.
Later prices resumed a bear market correction on account of 1. Higher

mustard seed crop and 2. Steep correction in the oil and oilseeds segment.
Prices continued correction in the second half of 2022 mostly and lost
about -24.0% from a high of Rs.8,200 and -3.73% y-o-y basis to settle 2022
at Rs.6700/quintal.
Mustard Oil, which gained about 27-28% in 2020 and about 21-22% in
2021 in key domestic mandis, had a continuation of the bull run during the
first half of 2022 as well amid soaring prices of sunflower oil, palm oil and
soybean oil in the international markets but later on, prices started falling
one-sided account of easing supply concern of sunflower oil and higher
supply of palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia. Prices lost about -22.0%
from a high of Rs.1650/10kg and -4.10% y-o-y basis to settle 2022 at
Rs.1340/quintal.
Historical Prices-Mustard Jaipur (in Rs/Quintal) Historical Prices-Mustard Alwar (in Rs/Quintal)
Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Jan 4054.6 4125.8 4582.4 6286.7 7803.5 Jan 4000.0 4135.1 4536.8 6332.6 7847.3
Feb 4081.2 4101.6 4283.2 6252.4 7765.1 Feb 4004.3 4140.2 4266.4 6404.8 7865.8
Mar 4067.4 3880.9 4088.7 5740.1 7142.2 Mar 3950.3 3864.4 4136.3 5678.3 7062.8
Apr 3947.9 3874.2 4291.7 6811.1 7192.9 Apr 3856.6 3827.8 4227.3 6621.2 7146.8
May 3964.8 3981.1 4526.6 7387.5 7203.3 May 3933.4 4044.0 4556.3 6621.2 7179.1
Jun 4074.7 4075.9 4820.5 7073.3 7004.1 Jun 4087.2 4100.2 4840.8 7071.1 6971.0
Jul 4270.5 4086.0 4956.4 7389.3 6868.1 Jul 4281.5 4098.5 4964.1 7479.6 6789.3
Aug 4311.1 4146.8 5269.3 7967.1 6868.2 Aug 4306.7 4090.7 5269.8 7952.4 6768.9
Sep 4355.7 4182.1 5500.0 8682.4 6404.4 Sep 4345.4 4123.6 5520.0 8717.1 6354.9
Oct 4282.3 4292.6 5778.0 8514.6 6578.8 Oct 4293.2 4297.8 5760.1 8534.0 6562.2
Nov 4247.3 4442.2 6267.7 8424.7 6969.8 Nov 4248.9 4424.1 6128.9 8406.0 6913.4
Dec 4154.6 4686.2 5944.6 7861.4 6717.0 Dec 4148.8 4694.5 5987.5 7879.5 6704.2
Crop Seasonality
Page 38 of 103
Price Seasonality
State-Wise Top 5 Mustard Producing Districts in India

Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh Haryana Madhya Pradesh
Districts % Share Districts % Share Districts % Share Districts % Share
Alwar 15% Agra 10% Bhiwani 32% Morena 46%
Tonk 15% Mathura 8% Mahendragarh 23% Bhind 43%
Bharatpur 12% Badaun 5% Rewari 23% Shoepur 10%
Ganga Nagar 12% Aligargh 4% Hisar 18% Gwailor 11%
S Madhopur 9% Kheri 3% Sirsa 11% Mandsur 9%
Crop Balance Sheet-Mustard Meal, Mustard Oil and Mustard Seed (in MMT)
Mustard Seed Mustard Meal Mustard Oil
Particulars Country
2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
China 14.0 14.7 14.7 9.44 9.68 9.68 6.24 6.40 6.40
India 8.5 11.0 11.0 4.48 5.88 5.95 2.85 3.75 3.80
Production
Canada 19.5 13.8 19.0 5.94 5.09 5.60 4.53 3.57 4.35
World 73.9 74.2 84.3 41.10 41.80 44.74 29.11 29.07 31.65
China 2.8 1.7 2.5 1.97 2.23 2.00 2.37 0.97 2.42
India 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.03
Imports
Canada 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02
World 16.7 13.9 16.6 8.30 7.57 8.02 6.32 5.14 6.53
China 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
India 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.03 1.21 1.00 0.01 0.01 0.01
Exports
Canada 10.6 5.2 7.9 5.26 4.40 4.95 3.45 2.57 3.25
World 18.1 14.6 17.7 8.22 7.64 8.23 6.41 5.27 6.81
China 16.5 16.8 16.9 11.40 11.89 11.67 8.15 8.00 8.50
India 8.4 10.9 11.1 3.60 4.45 4.95 2.72 3.74 3.89
Consumption
Canada 10.7 9.5 10.5 0.66 0.65 0.68 1.01 1.03 1.10
World 73.7 75.3 80.7 41.33 41.55 44.21 28.46 29.44 30.80
China 1.6 1.1 1.5 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.69 1.05 1.37
India 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.23 0.45 0.45 0.33 0.37 0.29
Ending Stocks
Canada 1.8 0.9 1.7 0.13 0.18 0.16 0.55 0.55 0.59
World 6.3 4.5 6.8 1.29 1.47 1.80 3.38 2.88 3.48
Page 39 of 103
Soybeans Complex
Brief Introduction
The soybean, is a key member of the oilseeds family and a species of atmospheric nitrogen, due to the presence of symbiotic bacteria from the
legume, also popularly known as Golden Bean. Soybean is one of the Rhizobia group. For human consumption, soybeans must be cooked with
important crops in the world that has numerous uses and is a major source wet heat to destroy the trypsin inhibitors.
of oil and protein. Soybean seeds contain about 18%-22% oil and 35-45%
Soy is a good source of protein and other essential nutrients for
protein depending on the growing conditions and varieties.
vegetarians and vegans or for people who want to reduce the amount of
Soybeans were a crucial crop in East Asia long before written records meat they eat. Soy protein is the nutritional equivalent of meat, eggs, and
began. It is widely believed that Soybeans were first domesticated by casein for human growth and health. About 85% of soybean seeds in the
Chinese farmers around 1100BC and was an ancient food crop in Japan world are processed into soybean meal and soybean oil. About 98% of the
and Korea also. By the 17th century through their trade with the Far East, soybean meal is crushed and further processed for animal feed and
soybeans and their products were traded by European traders (Portuguese, balance is used to make soy flour and proteins. About 95% of soybean oil
Spanish, and Dutch) in Asia, and supposedly reached Indian Subcontinent is consumed as edible oil globally and the rest is used for industrial
by this period. Soybeans were introduced to the United States of America purposes like fatty acids, soaps, and biodiesel.
and Europe in the early 1800s from China and today, it is the
second-largest crop produced in the U.S. after Corn. Soy was introduced to Soybean is a summer crop, and its cultivation is successful in climates with
Africa from China in the late 19th century and, is now widespread across optimum growing conditions in mean temperatures of 20 to 30 Celsius.
the continent. They are now a major crop in Brazil, the United States, Temperatures below 20 Celsius and over 40 Celsius affect growth
Argentina, China, and India. In 1904, the famous American chemist, George significantly.
Washington Carver discovered that soybeans are a valuable source of Soybean in the U.S. is sown in the May-June period, grown in the July-
protein and oil. He also realized the benefits of soybeans for preserving August period, and harvested in the September-November period.
good quality soil. Soybean in Brazil is sown in the October-December period, grown in the
Soybeans are used to produce a numerous variety of products due to January-February period, and harvested in the March-April period.
relatively high protein content. The rising global population and persistent Soybean in Argentina is sown in the October-December period, grown in
need for animal feed are leading to the increased demand for soybean in the January-February period, and harvested in the March-May period.
the world. Soybean, the largest-grown oilseed in India, is sown in the June-July
Most of the processed soybean seeds, which is known as fat-free soybean period, grown in the August-September period, and harvested in the
meal, in the world is a significant, preferred, and cheap source of protein October-November period.
for animals (e.g. chicken, hog, turkey, cattle, etc.) nutritional feeds in the Importance of soybean in the Indian Economy
U.S., Europe & China especially that in turn yields animal protein for
human use. India ranks fifth with respect to the production of soybean in the world.
Soybean contribution is very significant to the Indian edible oil pool.
Popular soybean-based products are tofu and its products, soy milk, soy Soybean has significantly helped in uplifting farmers’ economic status in
yogurt, soy cheese, soy sauce, soy nut butter, soy sprouts, soy flour, soy many states of India. Soybean generally fetches higher income to the
nutrila, whole soybeans (roasted for snacks, food & soups), and soy oil (for farmers owing to the huge export market for soybean de-oiled cake
food, cooking, salad dressing, baking, and industrial applications). (DOC). Presently soybean contributes 33% to the total oilseeds supply of
Soybean seeds have a large variety of sizes and come in hull colors such as 36.1 MMT, and 16% to the total oil production in India.
black, brown, yellow, and green. Like many legumes, soybeans can fix
Soybean
World Supply Trend
impacted by the drought condition there but lower supply from Argentina
will be more than compensated by the higher Brazilian crop size, which is
expected at or around 152 MMT against the production of 122 MMT in the
previous crop year. World soybean production has risen around 6.3 times
from the 62 MMT level seen in 1980. Brazil’s soybean production has
increased just over four times since 1980. China’s soybean production has
roughly doubled since 1980. Global production of Soybean has grown at a
CAGR of 3.48% from 215.69 MMT in 2004-05 to 372.6 MMT in 2021-22.
Brazil (37%), the USA (32%), and Argentina (14%) are the major producers
of the soybean in the world, which accounts for 83% of the total global
soybean production. Brazil, in recent past years only, has surpassed the
USA to become the largest producer of soybean. U.S., Brazil and Argentina
produces GM soybean. Other major producers are China and India after
these three countries, which account for 4.4% and 3.2% of the total global
production of the soybean respectively and produces Non-GM soybean.
World soybean production has gone up by 72.74% from a production level

of 212.23 MMT in 2008-2009 to 372.56 MMT in 2021-22. The major part of
World soybean production during the 2021-2022 crop year (Sept-Aug) fell
soybean production growth during this period has come from Brazil which
by -3.50% y-o-y basis to 355.6 MMT due to lower supply from south
has added 81.2 MMT followed by the U.S. which has added 39.96 MMT
America caused by severe drought. However, world soybean production
and Argentina which has added 14.5 MMT. Brazilian soybean production
for 2022-2023 is estimated at 391.2 MMT, which is 10.00% higher y-o-y
has gone up by 2.4 times from a production level of 57.8 MMT in 2008-
and 0.2% higher than the USDA’s November 2022 projection of 390.5
2009 to 139.5 MMT in 2020-21. The U.S. soybean production has gone up
MMT. We expect the size of the soybean crop will be lower by another 5-7
by 1.5 times from a production level of 80.75 MMT in 2008-2009 to 121.53
MMT due to lower supply from Argentina as standing crop is getting
Page 40 of 103
MMT in 2021-22. Argentine soybean production has gone up by 1.45 times domestic consumption is estimated to remain marginally up at 51.75
from a production level of 32 MMT in 2008-2009 to 46.2 MMT in 2020-21. MMT in 2022-23 against previous years’ level of 50.75 MMT. Argentina’s
domestic consumption too is expected to increase to 39.75 MMT for 2022-
23 versus 38.82 MMT reported a year ago again. Improved supply in south
America than the last year has resulted in higher demand.
India
The global soybean crush is estimated to grow by +4.4% y-o-y in 2022-23
India soybean production in 2020-21 rose by +12.4% to 10.45 MMT y-o-y
to a new record high of 329.32 MMT, which is about triple the level seen in
and, by +13.9% to 11.95 MMT in 2021-22. Production is estimated to
1992-1993. Analyzing the distribution pattern of the soybean shows that
increase further by +3% to 12.33 MMT in the crop year 2022-23. Indian
about 49.4% of U.S. soybean usage goes for crushing into soybean oil and
farmers harvested 120.40 lakh ha of soybeans in Kharif season 2022. The
meal, 46.2% for exports, and about 8% for ending stocks in 2021-22. In the
average yield of Kharif 2022-2023 crop is 102 kg per ha. Production of
case of Brazil, about 33% of soybean usage goes for crushing into soybean
Soybean in India has increased at a CAGR of 2.73 percent from 8.274
oil and meal, 67% for exports in 2021-22. In the case of Argentina, about
MMT in 2005-06 to 12.72 MMT in 2021-22, which is lower than World
88.6% of soybean usage goes for crushing into soybean oil and meal,
CAGR.
10.4% in for exports in 2021-22. In the case of India, about 84% of soybean
India’s soybean production has gained by about 53% from the 2005-06 usage goes for crushing into soybean oil and meal in 2021-22.
period to 2021-2022 but still, we are not able to meet domestic oil
World soybean consumption has gone up by 68.58% from a consumption
demand and, are largely dependent on oil imports. India produces around
level of 222.41 MMT in 2008-2009 to 374.93 MMT in 2021-22. The major
12 MMT of Soybean (i.e. 3.2% of World production), while global
part of the growth in soybean consumption during this period has come
production is around 370 MMT. Major Producing states in India are
from China, Brazil, Argentina, the U.S., and India. Brazilian soybean
Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan. Other states are Karnataka
consumption has gone up by 50.3% from a consumption level of 33.13
and Telangana and Gujrat. Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra together
MMT in 2008-2009 to 49.79 MMT in 2021-22. The U.S. soybean
account for 83.3% production of soybean in India. Madhya Pradesh and
Maharashtra produce around 4.8 MMT and 5.7 MMT of soybean followed
MMT in 2008-2009 to 62.80 MMT in 2021-22. Argentine soybean
by Rajasthan which produces around 0.8 MMT. Moreover, Karnataka,
Telangana, and Gujrat produce around 0.42 MMT, 0.22 MMT, and 0.23
MMT in 2008-2009 to 48.45 MMT in 2021-22.
MMT respectively.
Major countries for soybean crush are China (29.8%), the U.S. (18.30%),
Madhya Pradesh, which accounts for 44% of India’s Soybean production,
Brazil (14.5%), and Argentina (12.7%) which together account for 75.3% of
mainly grow Ahilya 1(NRC 2), Ahilya3(NRC 7), Ahilya2(NRC 12), Ahilya4
the global crushing of soybeans.
(NRC 37), JS 71-05, JS 335, JS 80-21, JS 75-46, MACS 58, JS 90-41, Indira
Soy 9, JS 93-05, Kalitur, Parbhani Sona (MAUS 47), Pratishtha (MAUS 61-2),
Monetta, Punjab-1, PK 472, Shakti (MAUS 81) as per ICAR-Indian Institute
of Soybean Research. But there are about 2500 varieties of soybean, which
come in different sizes, shapes & colors. World Trade Trend
The Top 10 soybean-producing districts of Madhya Pradesh are Ujjan,
which accounts for 8% of the Madhya Pradesh production of soybean,
Dewas which accounts for 6.5%, Shajapur which accounts for 5.92%,
Mandsour which accounts for 5.87%, Sagar which accounts for 5.22%,
Betul which accounts for 5.19%, Rajgargh which accounts for 4.77%,
Chindwara which accounts for 4.55%, Sehore which accounts for 4.54% and
Ratlam which accounts for 4.01. Indore comes at 11 with a 3.95% share of
soybean production in Madhya Pradesh. Other main producing districts
are Vidisha (3.83%), Guna (3.56%), Ashok Nagar (2.95%), Harda (2.57%)
Neemuch (2.36%), Hosangabad (2.29%), Raisen (2.16%), Bhopal (1.91%)
and Seoni (1.76%). In Maharastra, major producing districts are Amravati,
Latur, Buldhana, Wasim, Nagpur, Yavatmal, Hingoli, Nanded, Akola,
Osamabad, and Chandrapur.
World Demand Trend

Word exports of soybeans are estimated to rise by 10% y-o-y to a new
World soybean consumption during the 2021-2022 crop year (Sept-Aug) record high of 169.4 MMT. The world’s biggest exporters of soybeans are
remained almost unchanged year-on-year basis to 314.8 MMT. However, Brazil with 55% of the world exports, the U.S. with 32.7% of world exports,
world soybean consumption for 2022-2023 is estimated at around 329 and Paraguay with 3% of the world exports. Brazil’s soybean exports are
MMT, which is 4.4% higher y-o-y. The U.S. domestic consumption is expected to increase by +13 percent y-o-y to 89.5 MMT in 2021-22.
projected to grow by 1.80% around 61.10 MMT for 2022-23. Brazil’s
Page 41 of 103
Exports from the U.S. are estimated to fall for a second consecutive year by prices of soybean, soybean oil, palm oil in the international markets is
-5 percent y-o-y from 61.65 MMT in 2021-22 to 55.65 MMT in 2022-23. likely to be transmitted into domestic prices. During the Covid time,
constantly rising demand not being met by equivalent supplies was one of
World imports of soybeans in 2022-23 are expected to rise by +5.8% y-o-y
the primary reasons for prices spiralling upwards despite better domestic
to a new record high of 166.2 MMT. China will continue to remain the
and global production of soybean in the crop year 2020-2021. Beyond
world’s largest importer of soybeans with 59.4% of the world imports, the
high demand, rising costs of common expenses (sea freight and energy),
European Union with 8.9%, Mexico with 3.5%. China will have record
logistic issues, labor, and raw material shortages, are responsible for the
imports of 98 MMT in 2021-22 from negligible levels before the 1990s.
price rally seen in soybean. Moreover, havoc rally in the palm oil also
added fire in the already boiling water. Sowing of soybean, which is one
of the major Kharif crops, was initially lagging since the middle of June
due to patchy progress of southwest monsoon in major growing areas of
Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra leading to strong move during July
2021. But gaining momentum came to a halt post hitting a record high in
the early week of August 2021 on the revival of the monsoon in the key
producing states that set the hope for higher crop production in 2021-22
than the previous year. New crop of soybean opened near Rs.6000 and
then traded between Rs.5130 and Rs.6907 till the end of 2021.
Soybean CBOT got strong support from higher U.S. exports, record crush,
favorable crush margin, the projection for a lower U.S. ending stock, and
forecasts for a record world exports for the marketing year 2020-21. A
slow start to the Brazilian export season due to harvest delay fueled a
further rally. Soybean oil demand in the U.S. was high, especially as a
feedstock in an expanding renewal diesel industry. Strong disappearance
was proving it right. Soaring palm oil prices also pushed the soybean
prices up, which hit a high of $16.67 per bushel in May 2021, the level not
seen since October 2012. The soybean price, afterward, started softening
Prices Trend due to better supplies from Brazil and Argentina. But once again heat
started coming to the Soybean CBOT prices on fear of lower than expected
Soybean prices were in long dull phase post hitting a high of Rs5064.5 per
soybean crop size from Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay due to drought
quintal in July 2012. Silence of the dead dull market echoed till the end of
and, is likely to spillover in 2021-2022 crop year.
2020. It is better to say that it was an 8½-Year long Bear Market for
soybean from July 2012 to December 2020. During this phase, every 2022 – bull-run that started in late 2020 continued in H1, 2022 but
bottom was ceased to be ending around Rs2650-Rs2900 per quintal that ended letter half of 2022 oil rising supplies
occurred in October 2012, July 2013, October 2014, August 2015, and May
2017. Every bottom is mostly lower than the previous bottom except one Prices started 2022 with a bullish note in the global market underpinned
time. During this phase, even every time prices were topping lower from by the lower crop from south America as Brazil lost 22 MMT and Argentina
the previous top. Prices were topped at Rs4855 per quintal in April 2014, at 5 MMT. The impact of it was seen in the domestic soybean prices despite
Rs4412 per quintal in May 2015, at Rs4308 per quintal in April 2016, and higher production. Brazilian and Argentine crops were lower due to severe
Rs3894 in March 2018. Serious of these lower highs and lows formed a drought there, which impacted soybean fields. Lower palm oil supply from
long bearish Chanel pattern in the Monthly Soybean Chart. This lower top world’s ace producers, Indonesia and Malaysia, owing to flood there also
formation series came to an end in 2019 when prices toppled at Rs4506 heated to oil and oilseeds segment globally. Ukraine-Russia war created a
per quintal in December 2019, sharply higher from the previous top or cloud of uncertainty for the sunflower oil supply that further boiled the oil
peak of Rs3894 hit in March 2018. Although, 2020 was a silent year, some and oilseeds. Later, Indonesia’s decision to halt export to put a check on
interesting developments or patterns started to occur. The first pattern was soaring prices there in April 2022 furthered the global supply concern
the formation of the higher bottom at Rs3910 per quintal in March 2020, temporarily. Yes, we meant temporarily as it was not a wise decision
which is extremely high from its previous bottom or trough of Rs2663 especially when palm was in higher production cycle and limited storage
touched in May 2017. Now by that time, we had two violations the first-the capacity. That is why he have to undo their decision within a fortnight time
end of the Lower Top series in 2019, and the second end of the Lower in May 2022. Resumption of sunflower oil supply from Ukraine and palm
Bottom series in March 2020. That was suggesting that something big was oil supply from Indonesia were the key factors that ended the bull run and
about to happen that market participants were unaware of. The third played a vital role in resuming a bear market trend in the complex. That is
development was the formation of higher highs and higher lows in the why we quoted in June 2022 that oil is not going to boil in rest of 2022. In
monthly time frame from July to December 2020, and the fourth & the domestic market prices hit a 2022’s high of Rs.8,000/quintal on April
foremost development was that prices breached the high made in 2019 2022 and then resumed a down trend which take top gear in the month of
and hit a higher high of Rs4621 in December 2020. By that time June 2022 and correction continued till September 2022 end on better
somewhere it was clear that the range is breached on the upside in long- crop progress and expectation of higher production in the crop year 2022-
term charts that is going to last for a long period for sure. 23. Prices hit a 2022’s low of Rs.4,700/quintal on September 26, 2022 and
afterwards turned sideways as they were pretty close to MSP of
2021: A Year of the Big-Bull Move & Full of Extraordinary Volatility Rs4,200/quintal. In the first week of November 2022, government of India
lifted stock limits on oil and oilseeds as demanded by the industry
Prices surpassed the previous record high of Rs5064.5 (hit in July 2012) in
participants that acted as a buy trigger and soon after it prices resumed
January 2021. History suggests that whenever any commodity breaks a
recovery that was seen in November and December 2022. Prices finally
previous record high after a considerable time, then such Bull-Run tends to
close year 2022 with a loss of 10.6%, which was a first negative close in
last for a long period, generally for 2-3 Years.
three years. Let’s shift focus to what happened in benchmark CBOT
Prices opened 2021 year with an opening price of Rs4610 per quintal, and soybean in 2022. Prices surpassed 2011 high to made a 9-Year high of
afterward, the relentless rally continued till 20 April 2021, when the price $17.84/bushel, pretty close to 2012’s high of $17.89/bushel. Later, better
hit a high of Rs8100 per quintal, marking year till date gains of about 76% crop progress in the U.S. and falling palm oil prices exerted further
and more than double the MSP, before having a kind of pause or halt in pressure to the entire complex, resulting in whopping 27% correction in
the going rally for some time. Prices then turned sideways till June end the soybean prices from its high by letter half of July 2022. For remaining
but again firing move resumed in July when prices jumped about 18% in part of 2022 prices turned sideways near $14/bushel.
just three days, making a headline everywhere in the world. Soybean
Looking forward, the current crop year 2022-23 will be normal year for the
prices hit a record high of Rs10680 on 02 August 2021 with a whopping
oil and oilseeds market, after heightened volatility in 2020, 2021 and 2022,
gain of over 132% year-till-date. The rise in the demand and tight
backed by the higher supplies and slowing global economy. Supplies from
domestic supply were the reasons to credit for such a move as India is
south America will be higher by about 28-33MMT in 2022 after having
one of the largest importers of edible oils, and about 60% of the domestic
lower crop in 2021. Palm production is also seen higher due to higher
oil demand gets fulfilled from imports. Therefore, any increase in the
production cycle, which will also cap any substantial upside in the prices.
Page 42 of 103
Soybean Oil
World Supply Trend

World Soybean oil production is estimated to rise by +4.2 percent y-o-y to
a record high of 61.88 MMT in the crop year 2022-23. China accounts for
World Trade Trend
28.2% of the world’s soybean oil production, while, the U.S. accounts for World exports of Soybean oil are estimated to gain marginally to
19.2%, Brazil accounts for 14.8%, and Argentina accounts for 13.3%. India 12.62MMT in 2022-23 versus exports of 12.19 MMT reported in 2021-22.
accounts for only 2.94% of the world’s production of soybean oil. India’s The exports of soybean oil from Argentina account for 47.2% of the total
production of soybean oil is estimated to increase by +11% y-o-y to a world exports. World imports of soybean oil are estimated to gain
record high of 2.00 MMT in 2022-23. World soybean Oil production has marginally to 11.55 MMT versus imports of 11.45 MMT reported in
gone up by 69.5% from a production level of 36.16 MMT in 2008-2009 to previous year. India accounts for 29% of the total world imports of
61.88 MMT in 2022-22. soybean oil.
World Demand Trend

World Soybean oil consumption is expected to increase by +01.88 percent
y-o-y to a lifetime high of 60.51 MMT in 2022-23. China accounts for 30%
of the worlds’ consumption of soybean oil, while the U.S. accounts for
18.8%, Brazil accounts for 12.6%, and India accounts for 8.4%. India
soybean oil consumption is likely to drop by -11.54 percent y-o-y to 5.2
MMT in 2021-22.
Prices Trend
Soybean oil in India, which gained about 20% to 25% in 2020, had a
marginal gain in 2021 as in the last quarter, Oil and Oilseeds segment had
profit-taking across the world, which wiped out all the return made in the
early quarters of 2021. In May 2021, prices made a record high of Rs1502.7
per 10 kg in the domestic market, then entered into a gradual path of
correction from August 2021 to December 2021 period. Despite it, prices
remained at an elevated level like in 2020. Soybean oil also had a long Bear
Market from 2012 to 2019, like soybean or other agriculture commodities.
During that period prices formed a sideways band of Rs560/10kg on the
lower side to Rs820/10kg on the higher side, very fruitful for consumers’
point of view. But prices broke this range first in December 2019 and again
in the first half of 2020. Breakout in the prices was triggered by lockdown
and its widespread impacts on industrial activities. It started burning the
consumer’s pocket. Soybean oil made a high of Rs1194 in 2020 and ended
the year with a solid jump of about 28% in NCDEX future. Though the last
quarter of 2021 had shown signs of price softening but the way oil markets
are facing supply tightness and labor issues, we believe the undertone of
this commodity will remain firm in first half of 2022 also. Palm oil prices
were making new highs every week due to supply tightness and export
curb from Indonesia that will shift some of palm oil demand to soybean
oil that in turn will keep the prices firm, and we believe this bull run to
continue in first half of 2022 as well.
2022 – bull-run that started in late 2020 continued in H1, 2022 but
ended letter half of 2022 oil rising supplies
Soybean oil Indore started the year 2022 with a positive tone underpinned
by the rising Crude Palm oil prices. Later, sunflower oil supply concern led
World soybean Oil consumption has gone up by 66.9% from a by the Russia-Ukraine war boiled the oil further that got accelerated by sky
consumption level of 36.32 MMT in 2008-2009 to 60.51 MMT in 2022-23. touching CPO Prices in Indonesia and Malaysia. To curb the excessive
volatility and put a check on soaring prices, Indonesia in April 2022 end
announced a complete export band, which took all the oil prices to a
record high or near to a record high. Soybean Oil Prices hit a record high
of Rs.1732.5 per 10 kg during that tenure but did not sustained on the
back of confused Indonesia’s decision of export ban given the storage
limitation. That is why they had to open export within a fortnight of ban,
which triggered sell-off in the global oil and oilseeds markets as
production in Indonesia and Malaysia are on up cycle. Soybean oil closed
Page 43 of 103
substantially down about 21% from 2022’s high at Rs.1367/10kg, ended formidable resistance that is not going to be revised for sure in 2023. 2023
2½-Year long bull run. is seen as more stable year for oil and oil seeds segment and will give
good amount of trading opportunities to all the supply-chain participants.
Looking forward, prices are likely to behave in stable fashion in 2023, in
sideways band amid increased supplies of oils. 2022’s high will act as
Soybean Meal
Soybean meal is produced through processing soybean seeds into oil and
meal. Normally by weight soybean meal accounts for about 35%-45% of
World Demand Trend
the weight of soybean seeds. The soybean meal can further be processed
into soy flour and soy protein. The major chunk of soybean meal, which is
about 98%, is used as animal feed, and only 2% of the soybean meal is
used for human consumption in the form of soy flour or other products.
Understanding the Crush: traditionally processing one bushel (60 pounds

or 27.2kg) of soybean yields 48 pounds (21.8 kg) of soybean meal. Some
conventional model says 45 pounds of soybean meal, 3 pounds of hulls, 1
pound of waste, and 11 pounds of soybean oil. The term “crush margin”
refers to the dollar or rupee value premium received for processing
soybeans into soybean meal and soybean oil. Higher crush margin refers
to the situation when the prices of the meal and oil are strong relative to
soybeans, which can be because of an increase in the demand for meal
and oil or because of supply disruptions. In this situation, companies buy
soybean aggressively to boost the output of the meal and oil to reap the
benefit of the situation. Lower crush margin term refers to a situation when
companies have a very thin incentive to buy soybean to produce meal and
oil.
World consumption of soybean meal is expected to rise by +3.8 percent to
a new lifetime high of 253.3 MMT in the crop year 2022-23. China accounts
for 30% of the world soybean meal consumption, while the U.S. accounts
World Supply Trend for 13.7%, the European Union accounts for 11.4%, and Brazil accounts for
7.9%. India’s consumption of soybean meal will grow by +6 percent to a
record high of 7.03 MMT in 2022-2023.
World soybean meal consumption has gone up by 63.32% from a

consumption level of 153.83 MMT in 2008-2009 to 258.50 MMT in
2022-23.
World Trade Trend

World soybean meal exports are estimated to gain by +2.7 percent to a
record high of 70.08 MMT in 2022-2023. Argentina accounts for 41.2% of
the world soybean meal exports, Brazil accounts for 24.3%, and the U.S.
accounts for 18.1%. India’s soybean meal exports will grow by +3.7 percent
to a record high of 2.1 MMT in 2021-2022. World soybean meal imports
are likely to gain by 2.6% to a record high of 65.64 MMT in 2022-23.
World soybean meal production is estimated to increase by +4.65 percent

y-o-y to a record high of 258.5 MMT in 2022-23. China, the US, Brazil, and
Argentina are the largest producers of soybean meal in the world. China
accounts for 30% of the world soybean meal production, while, the U.S.
accounts for 18.2%, Brazil accounts for 14.3%, and Argentina accounts for
12.6% in 2021-22. India’s production of soybean meal is estimated to
increase by 5.3% y-o-y to a record high of 8 MMT.
World soybean meal production has gone up by 67.22% from a production

level of 153.05 MMT in 2008-2009 to 258.50 MMT in 2022-23.
Page 44 of 103
meal prices averaged Rs.23783. In 2018, soybean meal prices averaged at

Rs.28880, and had a yearly high of Rs.32767 & a low of Rs.23494. In 2019,
the annual average soybean meal price was Rs.31985 with a yearly high of
Rs37588 & a low of Rs.27750. In 2020, soymeal prices averaged at
Rs.32277 with a yearly high of Rs.36,625 and a low of Rs.29235. Prices
started 2021 with an opening price of about Rs.35125 and geared to have
a one-sided skyrocketing move that was never seen in the history of Indian
soybean meal market. First time in the history, soybean meal prices
entered the 6-digit mark as prices touched Rs.100,000 on 30 July 2021, and
then made a record high of Rs104,000 on 6th August 2021, marking year
till date return of 185%. Afterward, the focus was shifted to a new
soybean crop progress that also had a bearing on the prices of soybean
meal like soybean and soybean oil, and gradual softening of the prices
then started but still prices managed to post a strong closing at Rs.57750
with a gain of 64.4% in 2021.
2022 – soybean meal prices also tumbled in H2, 2022

Price Trend Soybean meal prices hit a high of Rs.71,000/tonne and early 2022 and
Soybean meal prices too were into the long Bear Market like soybean and afterward turned bearish, mirroring the weakness in the Oil and Oilseeds
tend to had movement near within the vicinity of Rs.20000- segment and Prices fell by 42% to close the year 2022 at Rs41,500/quintal.
Rs.30,000/tonne most of the time. From 2017 onwards bit of the Looking forward, 2023 will not witness much volatility like 2021 & 2022
improvement had started but at a very gradual pace. In 2017, soybean and trade is likely to happen well in range most of the year.
Historical Prices-Soybean CBOT (in Cents/Bushel) Historical Prices-Soybean Indore (in Rs/Quintal)
Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Jan 971.7 909.0 918.0 1372.2 1398.9 Jan 3366.3 3647.9 4296.7 4616.9 6423.0
Feb 1011.5 910.4 885.7 1382.1 1591.2 Feb 3733.4 3795.7 4026.0 4916.3 6919.3
Mar 1039.7 895.8 868.8 1414.7 1680.1 Mar 3773.5 3747.8 3770.3 5526.0 7683.5
Apr 1037.6 882.5 843.7 1462.6 1682.3 Apr 3792.0 3831.8 3770.3 6994.7 7750.0
May 1021.4 830.8 842.0 1571.4 1674.0 May 3711.7 3801.0 3890.0 7512.5 7099.0
Jun 925.2 888.9 867.2 1462.4 1689.8 Jun 3529.5 3755.3 3830.5 7133.3 6698.9
Jul 850.9 886.3 895.0 1423.1 1544.9 Jul 3562.8 3640.6 3738.7 8180.8 6238.3
Aug 861.7 856.7 903.6 1369.4 1564.0 Aug 3447.6 3692.0 3847.5 9230.0 6162.0
Sep 834.4 878.2 997.4 1277.8 1459.8 Sep 3372.4 3913.4 3899.8 7668.2 5201.0
Oct 859.6 925.0 1054.8 1230.2 1381.3 Oct 3206.8 3797.3 4125.2 5495.7 5076.1
Nov 877.9 907.0 1142.3 1238.4 1440.3 Nov 3356.7 3950.6 4386.8 5979.3 5567.6
Dec 899.8 911.6 1207.4 1289.5 1474.4 Dec 3386.5 4251.6 4413.2 6423.1 5571.9
Historical Prices-Soybean Oil Indore (in Rs/10 kg) Historical Prices-Soybean Meal Indore (in Rs/Tonne)
Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Jan 772.5 802.0 960.6 1203.5 1270.1 Jan 26830.0 30353.7 34782.5 35094.5 59701.3
Feb 775.4 817.9 884.6 1194.1 1419.6 Feb 31367.8 31424.2 32618.8 41533.2 62527.5
Mar 806.0 801.1 827.5 1312.2 1630.6 Mar 31150.9 31002.8 30447.1 46426.2 67622.5
Apr 806.1 785.3 827.5 1451.3 1629.7 Apr 31283.4 32489.9 30447.1 63850.0 67460.5
May 793.2 791.9 848.0 1528.3 1641.0 May 30616.5 31776.3 30447.1 67855.0 58685.7
Jun 781.2 793.9 869.4 1400.5 1501.6 Jun 29038.1 31061.8 31240.3 66768.2 57647.7
Jul 785.2 776.6 874.4 1424.0 1305.7 Jul 29331.8 30430.5 29801.3 78720.2 56756.3
Aug 774.0 788.9 908.8 1476.5 1295.7 Aug 28164.0 30859.9 30647.9 95440.5 55055.6
Sep 779.2 793.0 945.0 1430.5 1216.1 Sep 27805.1 33696.8 32058.5 85657.1 46483.0
Oct 794.5 794.4 991.8 1384.6 1327.4 Oct 26267.1 33030.6 32973.5 50193.8 44616.7
Nov 784.1 833.4 1084.8 1316.4 1419.8 Nov 27529.9 33047.4 34170.4 53592.1 45966.7
Dec 772.8 919.9 1149.4 1256.5 1318.2 Dec 27427.3 35006.4 33491.5 60125.0 46534.1
Source: Origo e-Mandi Research Source: Origo e-Mandi Research. Note: Apr and May figure is blank due to lockdown.
Crop Seasonality
Price Seasonality
Page 45 of 103
Note: Area = lakh hectares, Production = Lakh Tonnes, Yield kgs per hectare
Crop Balance Sheet-Soybean, Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil (in MMT)
Soybean Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
Particulars Country
2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2019-20 2021-22 2021-22 2022-23 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Argentina 48.80 46.20 43.90 49.50 30.24 31.32 30.29 31.01 7.70 7.93 7.66 7.86
Brazil 128.50 139.50 129.50 152.00 36.23 36.18 38.95 40.10 9.00 8.99 9.67 9.97
China 18.09 19.60 16.40 18.40 72.47 73.66 69.30 76.03 16.40 16.67 15.68 17.20
Production
India 9.30 10.45 11.90 12.00 6.72 7.60 7.60 8.00 1.51 1.71 1.71 1.80
United States 96.67 114.75 121.53 118.27 46.36 45.87 47.00 47.94 11.30 11.35 11.86 11.93
World 340.37 368.52 358.10 391.17 245.31 247.82 246.57 258.50 58.52 59.23 59.26 61.88
Argentina 4.88 4.82 3.84 4.80 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.00
Brazil 0.55 1.02 0.54 0.75 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.07 0.25 0.03 0.08
China 98.53 99.74 91.57 98.00 0.05 0.07 0.06 0.05 1.00 1.23 0.29 1.00
Imports
India 0.52 0.55 0.56 0.45 0.02 0.24 0.65 0.10 3.63 3.25 4.23 3.35
United States 0.42 0.54 0.43 0.41 0.58 0.71 0.59 0.54 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.14
World 165.12 165.55 157.13 166.21 62.50 64.07 65.23 65.64 11.48 11.71 11.46 11.56
Argentina 10.00 5.20 2.86 7.70 27.46 28.33 26.59 27.60 5.40 6.14 4.87 5.50
Brazil 92.14 81.65 79.14 89.50 17.50 16.58 20.21 19.60 1.16 1.26 2.41 2.15
China 0.09 0.07 0.10 0.10 1.01 1.05 0.48 1.00 0.16 0.04 0.11 0.09
Exports
India 0.08 0.03 0.06 0.15 0.89 2.03 0.66 1.20 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.02
United States 45.80 61.67 58.72 55.66 12.55 12.41 12.27 12.43 1.29 0.79 0.80 0.50
World 165.56 164.99 153.89 169.38 67.59 68.98 68.19 70.09 12.37 12.61 12.15 12.62
Argentina 38.77 40.16 38.83 39.75 38.77 40.16 38.83 39.75 38.77 40.16 38.83 39.75
Brazil 46.74 46.68 50.25 51.75 46.74 46.68 50.25 51.75 46.74 46.68 50.25 51.75
China 91.50 93.00 87.50 96.00 91.50 93.00 87.50 96.00 91.50 93.00 87.50 96.00
Crush
India 8.40 9.50 9.50 10.00 8.40 9.50 9.50 10.00 8.40 9.50 9.50 10.00
United States 58.91 58.26 59.98 61.10 58.91 58.26 59.98 61.10 58.91 58.26 59.98 61.10
World 312.30 315.44 314.19 329.32 312.31 315.45 314.20 329.32 312.30 315.44 314.19 329.07
Argentina 26.65 25.06 23.90 23.50 2.57 2.29 2.80 2.80 0.55 0.30 0.52 0.50
Brazil 20.42 29.40 26.81 31.71 3.77 4.20 3.40 3.94 0.48 0.50 0.35 0.43
China 24.61 31.15 31.40 31.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.78 1.03 0.24 0.55
Ending Stocks
India 0.47 0.42 1.11 1.10 0.42 0.18 0.74 0.62 0.14 0.13 0.24 0.17
United States 14.28 6.99 7.47 5.99 0.31 0.31 0.28 0.32 0.84 0.97 0.90 0.86
World 94.73 100.03 98.22 102.71 15.54 14.34 13.99 14.76 5.38 5.29 4.56 4.87
Source: US Department of Agriculture. Unit in Million Tonnes
India Meals Exports (in MMT)
Page 46 of 103
Month Soybean Meal Mustard Meal Groundnut Meal Rice Bran Ext Castor Seed Meal Total
2022-23 0.45 1.67 0.02 0.40 0.28 2.83
2021-22 0.26 0.71 0.00 0.51 0.28 1.77
2020-21 1.56 1.11 0.02 0.58 0.42 3.69
2019-20 0.69 0.96 0.00 0.24 0.54 2.43
2018-19 1.36 1.09 0.01 0.49 0.38 3.32
2017-18 1.19 0.66 0.01 0.59 0.57 3.03
2016-17 0.92 0.22 0.00 0.34 0.41 1.89
Source: SEA (till Dec 2022)
India Soybean State-wise Area, Yield and Production

2022 2021 2020 2019 2018
States
Area Yield Production Area Yield Production Area Yield Production Area Yield Production Area Yield Production
Madhya Pradesh 5.02 0.95 4.79 5.51 0.94 5.18 6.67 0.64 4.26 6.19 0.79 4.89 5.42 1.23 6.67
Maharashtra 4.87 1.18 5.74 4.59 1.10 5.06 4.29 1.46 6.26 4.12 1.17 4.83 4.08 1.13 4.61
Rajasthan 1.15 0.72 0.83 1.06 0.76 0.81 1.13 0.97 1.09 1.12 0.47 0.52 0.93 1.25 1.17
Telangana 0.17 1.24 0.22 0.14 1.01 0.14 0.16 1.50 0.24 0.17 1.81 0.31 0.15 1.58 0.23
Karnataka 0.44 0.96 0.42 0.38 1.00 0.38 0.31 1.21 0.38 0.32 1.18 0.38 0.25 1.03 0.26
Other 0.39 0.88 0.34 0.37 1.02 0.38 0.35 1.04 0.37 0.26 1.13 0.30 0.31 1.06 0.33
All India 12.04 1.02 12.33 12.06 0.99 11.95 12.92 0.98 12.61 12.19 0.92 11.23 11.13 1.19 13.27
Source: Origo e-Mandi Research Note: Area = Million hectares, Production = Million Tonnes, Yield Tonnes per hectare
Page 47 of 103
Chickpeas
Brief Introduction
Chickpea is also known as Chana or Bengal Gram (Cicer aritinum L.) in world. India takes around 28% share in global pulses production. India
South Asia and Garbanzo bean in most of the developed world. It is a produces 34% pulses in Kharif and 66% in Rabi season. The major pulses
major pulse crop in India, widely grown for centuries, and accounts for grown in India are Chickpeas (46%), Pigeon Pea (17%), Moong (12%), Urad
nearly 47% of the total pulses production. India is the major growing (9%), and Lentil (6%). Tur is grown only in Kharif season while Chickpeas
country in the world, accounting for 74% percent of the total world and Lentil are grown in the rabi season and Urad and Moong (65% grown
production in 2020-21. Bengal gram is widely appreciated as a healthy in Kharif and 35% in Rabi). Chickpeas are consumed in three-different
food. It is a protein-rich supplement to cereal-based diets, especially to the
forms – Gram (20%), Dal (15%), and Besan (65%). Other pulses like Tur,
poor in developing countries, where people are vegetarians or cannot
Urad, Moong, and Lentils are mainly consumed as dal.
afford animal protein. The pulses proteins are rich in lysine, and have low
sulfur-containing amino acids. It offers the most practical means of
eradicating protein malnutrition among vegetarian children and nursing
mothers. Bengal gram has a very important role in the human diet in our
country. It contains 25% proteins, which is the maximum provided by any World Supply Trend
pulses, and 60% carbohydrates. It places third in the importance list of the
food legumes that are cultivated throughout the world. Chana is used as
an edible seed, and is also used for making flour throughout the globe.
There are mainly two types of chickpea produced i.e. Desi chana and
Kabuli chana.
There are a number of pulses crops are grown in India and the world.
Among the crops, the major ones are Chickpeas, Pigeon pea, Lentil, and
Field peas. According to history, the origin of Chickpea is in South West
Asia – probably Afghanistan and Persia, Pigeon pea in Africa, Lentil in
Turkey to South Iran, and Field peas in the Mediterranean Region of
Southern Europe and Western Asia.
Chana is usually suited to those areas having relatively cooler climatic

conditions and a low level of rainfall. It yields best when grown on sandy,
loam soils having an appropriate drainage system as this crop is very
sensitive to excess water availability and a lack of such a system can
hamper the yield levels. Rabi pulses crops normally require mild cold
climate during the sowing period, during vegetative to pod development Global Chickpeas production during 2021-2022 was 15.9 MMT, increased
cold climate, and during maturity to harvesting warm climate. Similarly, by 5.34% y-o-y. Global Chickpea production has grown at a CAGR of 2.9%
Kharif pulses crops require a warm climate throughout their life from since 1980-81. Production increased significantly by 227% from 4.85 MMT
sowing to harvesting. Summer pulses are habitants of a warm climate. in 1980-81 to 15.9 MMT in 2021-22. India is the largest producer of
Seed is required to pass many stages to produce seed like germination, chickpeas in the World and produces around 74% share of global
seedling, vegetative, flowering, fruit setting, pod development, and grain chickpeas production. Other major producers of chickpeas are Turkey (4%),
maturity to harvesting.
Pakistan (3%), Myanmar (3%), Ethiopia (3%)., Australia (2%), and Canada
Chickpea is planted in the months of October to November (Rabi Season) (1%).
in India. The maturity period of desi type chickpea is 95-105 days and
kabuli type chickpea is 100-110 days. Harvesting of the plant is done when
its leaves start drying and shedding and can be done directly or with the India
help of a harvester. In India, it is harvested at the end of February and
March.
Importance of Pulses in Indian Economy
Chickpeas production in India has increased at a CAGR of 3% since

1980-81. India chickpeas production in 2021-22 rose by 15.4% y-o-y to
13.75 MMT. While in 2022-23 production is expected to decline by around
Pulses contribute 8.3% share to total foodgrain production in the country.
8% to 12.6 MMT due to drop in acreages by 5% to 10.9 million ha in the
Currently, India ranks first in respect to the production of pulses in the
states of Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat by 15% and 26% respectively. Chana
Page 48 of 103
acreages got shifted to the wheat and mustard crop due to better returns. (14%), UAE (13%), Nepal (11%), Sri Lanka (7%), Iran (7%), Turkey (6%),
In India, chickpeas are cultivated during the rabi season. The major Egypt (5%), and Saudi Arab (5%). In 2020-21, India exported 0.55 Lakh MT
producing states are Madhya Pradesh (25%), Rajasthan (24%), Maharashtra Bengal gram and 0.68 Lakh MT Kabuli chana, and 0.34 Lakh MT other
(20%), Uttar Pradesh (8%), Karnataka (6%), Gujarat (6%), and Andhra chickpeas. In 2021-22, chickpeas exports were around 1.16 Lakh MT, down
Pradesh (5%). by 27.4% y-o-y, of which Kabuli chana exports stood at 0.46 Lakh, down
33% y-o-y and Bengal Gram exports were 0.51 Lakh MT, down 8.5% y-o-y.
Meanwhile, in 2022-23 chickpea exports during April 2022 to November
2022 stood at 1.66 Lakh MT, up 225% from the same period last year. The
key export destination in 2022-23 which accounts for over 70% share are -
World Demand Trend UAE (39%), Iran (18%), Sri Lanka (5%), Algeria (4%), China (4%), and Egypt
India is a major consumer of pulses. India consumes nearly 90% of its (3%).
production. Chana is split to get chana dal and it’s also processed to besan
both are consumed throughout the country, so dal mills are set up across
India. The key value of Chana lies in its relatively high protein content, Imports
which makes it an excellent source of protein. It is a protein-rich
In financial year 2020-21, India imported 2.83 Lakh MT chickpeas, out of
supplement and contains around 19% to 20% protein. In the Indian which, Bengal gram was 1.36 Lakh MT and Kabuli chana was 1.46 Lakh MT.
subcontinent, chickpeas are widely consumed in the form of dal, and in India’s share in global imports is around 19%. India imports chickpeas from
various parts of the globe, it is popularly used as a primary ingredient in origins like Tanzania (35%), Russia (18%), Sudan (19%), Turkey (7%),
hummus, a dip made with mashed chickpeas and other materials. These Myanmar (9%), Ethiopia (4%), Australia (2%) and Canada (2%). India
days' consumers have a preference for food products with high protein imports both Bengal Gram (Desi chana) and Kabuli chana. India imports
content owing to rising health awareness, hence this commodity attracts Kabuli Chana from Sudan (33%), Russia (31%), Myanmar (10%), Ethiopia
buyers quite frequently. Considering the prevailing trend of vegetarian (4%), Australia (2%), Canada (3%), Turkey (13%), and Tanzania (5%). The
meat substitutes, chickpeas are also being utilized for producing textured origin for Bengal gram imports is Tanzania (85%), Myanmar (8%), Ethiopia
protein. Lately, chickpeas have also emerged as a low-cost feed additive (4%) and Australia (2%). In 2021-22, chickpea imports were 2.02 Lakh MT,
due to the high cost and limited availability of higher protein sources like lower by 31.3% y-o-y, of which Kabuli chana imports was 0.61 Lakh MT,
soybean. In 2022-23, chana consumption is estimated at 9.5 MMT, lower down 60% y-o-y and Bengal Gram imports was 1.40 Lakh MT, down 0.36%
y-o-y. Meanwhile, in 2022-23 chickpea imports during April 2022 to
by 5% y-o-y.
November 2022 stood at 0.55 Lakh MT, down 65% from the same period
last year, of which Kabuli chana was only 815.5 tons, down 98% y-o-y and
Bengal gram was 0.52 Lakh MT, down 47% y-o-y.
World Trade Trend

Exports
Price Trend
Chana prices in Delhi closed marginally higher by around 0.38% in 2022.
Prices touched a high of Rs.5277 per quintal and a low of Rs.4700 per
quintal throughout 2022. In 2022, chana prices traded mostly lower than
the minimum support price (MSP) of Rs.5230 per quintal. The volatility in
chana prices was around 10% in 2022. In Q1 2022, chana prices gained by
1.4%, traded in the range of Rs.5000 – Rs.5277 per quintal while in Q2 2022
prices fell by around 3.5% owing to increase in arrivals in the market, even
the chana production was quite higher in 2022. The market participants
were expecting chana prices would trade near/above MSP level as NAFED
starts their procurement program but it never happened. Even though
NAFED procured around 25.92 Lakh MT of chana in 2022 but prices traded
under the MSP throughout 2022. Then in Q3 prices fell by 2.3% as NAFED
started liquidating their stocks which weighed on the prices and capped
the gains. Meanwhile, in Q4 2022 chana prices gained some support as
NAFED has almost completed disposing off their old stocks, new season
crop sowing was lower y-o-y, and chana exports improved which also
India exported around 1.58 Lakh MT chickpeas in financial year 2020-21,
supported the prices.
up by 18.6% y-o-y. India exports chickpeas to destinations such as Algeria
Historical Prices-Chana (Rajasthan) Delhi (in Rs/Quintal) Historical Prices-Chana (MP) Delhi (in Rs/Quintal)
Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Jan 4136.0 4401.0 4503.7 4696.9 5150.0 Jan 4052.9 4326.9 4450.0 4665.6 5063.5
Feb 4120.0 4342.7 4245.5 4770.6 5051.0 Feb 4088.0 4249.0 4200.0 4765.3 4979.2
Mar 3836.5 4277.2 4185.9 5052.0 5140.0 Mar 3801.0 4183.3 4116.2 5040.0 5080.0
Apr 3763.5 4420.2 4275.0 5516.4 5128.3 Apr 3736.5 4339.3 4244.8 5542.4 5031.5
May 3751.9 4583.6 4226.9 5495.8 4895.7 May 3705.8 4531.0 4173.5 5470.3 4835.0
Jun 3700.0 4493.8 4196.2 5267.7 4827.9 Jun 3666.2 4435.4 4168.8 5189.4 4779.8
Jul 4198.1 4393.5 4202.9 5056.3 4898.8 Jul 4151.3 4340.7 4165.7 4982.5 4845.2
Aug 4336.0 4352.2 4573.8 5277.2 4960.6 Aug 4266.0 4303.7 4508.7 5225.0 4911.5
Sep 4229.3 4286.9 5189.4 5458.3 4821.7 Sep 4133.7 4245.7 5147.6 5377.5 4779.8
Oct 4315.6 4532.6 5413.5 5268.8 4861.9 Oct 4236.0 4479.3 5388.5 5178.2 4813.0
Nov 4593.2 4557.0 5188.8 5250.0 4942.7 Nov 4513.0 4496.0 5160.2 5181.5 4888.0
Dec 4586.0 4523.0 4817.3 5086.5 5119.0 Dec 4516.0 4450.0 4791.3 5014.4 5073.1
Page 49 of 103
Crop Seasonality
India Chickpeas Imports

Year 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Qty ('000 MT) 206.49 697.63 276.13 412.90 1031.49 1080.63 981.32 185.95 370.67 294.53 202.10
Value (Rs. Crore) 772.26 2802.96 842.83 1317.57 4453.72 6106.77 5437.86 780.79 1323.42 1247.47 1078.14
Source: DGFT, GOI
India Chickpeas Exports

Year 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Qty ('000 MT) 170.02 194.91 333.81 190.23 217.06 87.51 127.92 228.72 133.84 158.72 115.20
Value (Rs. Crore) 1042.25 1239.71 1676.75 1021.57 1337.64 841.38 1121.40 1426.39 731.51 1018.86 813.05
Source: DGFT, GOI
Page 50 of 103
Lentils
Brief Introduction
Lentil (Lens culinaris or Lens esculenta) is one of the most ancient annual 1980-81 to 6.54 MMT in 2020-21. Canada is the largest producer of Lentil
food crops that have been grown as an important food source for over in the World and produces around 44% share of global Lentil production.
8,000 years. Lentil is also known as Masur in India. Lentil is a nutritious Other major producers of Lentil are India (18%), Australia (8%), Turkey
food legume and one of the early domesticated species. The major lentil (6%), the United States (5%), and Nepal (4%). These six countries account
producers in the World are Canada, India, Turkey, Australia, the United for 85% of global lentil production.
States of America, Nepal, China, and Ethiopia.
India
The cultivation of lentils is thought to have been originated and first
domesticated in Western Asia and then introduced into the Indo-Gangetic
plain around 2000 BC. Lentil cultivation rapidly spread to Egypt, central and
southern Europe, the Mediterranean basin, Ethiopia, Afghanistan, India,
Pakistan, China, and later to Latin America, Mexico, Chile, Argentina,
Colombia, and more recently Canada.
Lentil plays an important role in the maintenance and improvement of soil

fertility. Cultivation of lentils enriches the soil nutrient status by adding
nitrogen, carbon, and organic matter which promotes sustainable
cereal-based systems of crop production. The plant of Lentil is short but
can range from 20cm to 75cm in height, depending on growing
conditions. Lentil is grown in a cold climate. In India Lentil is grown in the
rabi season. It can tolerate frost and severe winter to a great extent. Lentil
typically requires cold temperature during its vegetative growth and warm
temperature at the time of maturity. The optimum temperature for growth
is 18-30 ℃. The soil type required for Lentil is well-drained, loam soil with
neutral reactions is best for lentil cultivation. The recommended sowing
time for rainfed lentil crops is from October first fortnight in Central and Lentil production in India has increased at a CAGR of 3.8% since 1980-81.
South India and October second fortnight in North India. Meanwhile, India lentil production in 2021-22 fell by 14% to 1.28 MMT y-o-y. In India,
under irrigated conditions, it can be sown during the first fortnight of lentil is cultivated only during the Rabi season. The major producing states
November in North India and for late sowing till the first week of are Uttar Pradesh (41%), Madhya Pradesh (27%), West Bengal (13%), Bihar
December. (8%), Jharkhand (5%), and Rajasthan (2%). In 2022-23 (April-March), Lentil
In South Asia, especially India, the Middle East, and parts of Central and production is estimated at 1.5 MMT, higher by 17% y-o-y. Acreages of
South America lentils are consumed as a source of affordable protein. They lentils increased by 5.8% to 18.2 lakh ha as states like Madhya Pradesh and
are an excellent source of complex carbohydrates, plant-based protein, Uttar Pradesh increased their acreages by 12% and 1.2% respectively.
copper, magnesium, potassium, vitamin B6 and zinc and also a good
source of fiber, folate, iron, manganese, phosphorus, and thiamin. Lentils
contribute complementary amino acids to create a complete protein meal
when combined with grains. Lentils can be cooked using a variety of World Demand Trend
methods such as lentils are boiled or simmered to make a variety of
globally consumed dishes, such as soups, stews, salads, curries, or baked India annually consumes 2 to 2.2 MMT of lentils and there is a very small
goods. carryout left every year, so the supply gap needs to be bridged through
imports. The red lentils are consumed in the eastern part of the country,
which is a price-sensitive market and if prices climb too high, people switch
to other cheaper pulses while the green lentils are consumed in southern
World Supply Trend India as an alternative to pigeon peas when pigeon pea prices are high.
World Trade Trend
Global Lentil production during 2021-2022 was 5.78 MMT, decreased by

13% y-o-y. Global Lentil production has grown at a CAGR of 4.2% since
1980-81. Production increased significantly by 427% from 1.24 MMT in
Page 51 of 103
Exports Prices Trend

India’s lentil export is very negligible with a share of 0.34% in global trade.
Lentil prices in Indore market fell by 7% in 2022 as compared to the last
India exported around 0.21 Lakh MT lentil in financial year 2021-22, higher
year. Prices touched a high of Rs.7650 per quintal and a low of Rs.6000 per
by 19% y-o-y. India exports lentils to destinations such as Bangladesh
quintal throughout 2022. In 2022, Lentil prices traded higher than the
(47%), US (8%), Bhutan (8%), UAE (7%), Qatar (7%) and Nepal (5%) etc.
minimum support price (MSP) set at Rs.5500 per quintal for the crop year
Meanwhile, 2022-23, from April to November period, India lentils export
2022-23. The volatility in prices was around 35% in 2022. Continuous
were around 0.44 Lakh MT, up by 770% y-o-y.
imports of lentil kept the prices under control in 2022. In Q1 2022, prices
dropped by about 7.5% despite lower crop size as import flow was regular.
Meanwhile on February 2022, India government has lowered import tariffs
Imports on lentils from 10% to 0% for all origins except the US with effect from 13th
February 2022 to 30th September 2022. The basic import duty on US-origin
In financial year 2021-22, India’s lentil imports were 6.67 Lakh MT, lower by
lentils, however, is being reduced from 30% to 10%. This measure of
40% y-o-y. India’s share in global imports is around 23%. India imports
reduction in import duty has cooled off the prices. In Q2 2022, prices fell
lentils from origins like Canada (81%), Australia (12%), UAE (2%), Sri Lanka
by 3.6% as supply was sufficient due to new crop arrivals and continuous
(1%), and USA (3%). In 2022-23, from April to November period, India lentil
imports, India imported around 1.02 Lakh MT lentil during Q2. In Q3 2022,
imports were 5.12 Lakh MT, down by 15% y-o-y. India government has
prices fell by 5.8% due to higher imports, imports during Q3 was 2.13 Lakh
lowered import tariffs on lentils from 10% to 0% for all origins except the
MT, up 108% from Q2 2022. Also, the government has extended the 0%
US with effect from 13th February 2022 to 30th September 2022. The basic
AIDC deadline on lentil imports from 30th September 2022 to 31st March
import duty on US-origin lentils, however, is being reduced from 30% to
2023. In Q4 2022, prices fell by 1.5% as the initial sowing progress of the
10%. Meanwhile, the government has extended the 0% import duty
new crop was quite good giving prospects of a good harvest amid
through 31st March 2024, for every market except the United States, which
continuous import of the pulses. Also, the government has extended the
must pay a 10% tax.
0% import duty through 31st March 2024, for every market except the
United States, which must pay a 10% tax. The government has also fixed
1.5 Lakh MT quota for import of lentils from Australia. Going forward in
2023, we expect lentil prices to remain under control given the extension
of the free import policy and good crop size in Canada and Australia.
Historical Prices-Masoor Indore (in Rs/Quintal)

Month 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Jan 4491.1 6036.6 5502 4654.4 3435.7 4129.3 4925.6 5130.9 7250.3
Feb 4280.1 5456.6 4725.6 4169.1 3434.7 4002.3 4663.8 5297.7 6815.5
Mar 4721.3 4863.8 5164 4457.2 3425 3933.1 4426.8 5590.2 6482.2
Apr 5111.2 5875.7 5836.7 4249.2 3582.2 4047.1 4426.8 6199 6731.3
May 5168.2 6536.8 5797.2 3866.9 3510.1 4197.4 4426.8 6199 6677.2
Jun 5075.6 6592 5873.8 3545.8 3553.5 4141.2 5532.5 6293.8 6764.4
Jul 5211.1 6811.9 6107.2 3437.5 3823.8 4198.9 5442.6 6352.6 6925.7
Aug 5404.1 7058.9 5656.6 3710.2 3788.3 4137.2 5500 6893.1 6602.8
Sep 5696.5 6955.3 5497.8 3624.3 3702.6 4073.2 5620.8 7537.5 6075.6
Oct 5704.5 6989.6 5447.9 3357.6 3709.7 4216.4 5572.7 7338.2 6412.5
Nov 5948.8 6155 5291.7 3396 3852.3 4470.9 5269.5 7278.7 6517.8
Dec 5919.6 5874.4 4808.1 3446.4 3860.9 4558.9 5047.6 7142.9 6209.4
Crop Seasonality
India Lentil Imports

Year 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Qty ('000 MT) 117.93 506.35 708.71 779.90 1260.19 829.44 796.62 248.97 854.46 1116.17 667.43
Value (Rs. Crore) 365.75 1610.46 2692.00 3277.98 6713.00 4244.55 3062.61 716.34 2550.73 4620.91 3936.18
Source: DGFT, GOI
Page 52 of 103
India Lentil Exports

Year 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Qty ('000 MT) 0.45 1.04 0.73 7.98 11.78 15.56 11.20 13.97 19.98 17.53 20.89
Value (Rs. Crore) 2.41 6.40 4.69 49.85 83.05 119.00 63.97 78.62 132.26 131.95 171.68
Source: DGFT, GOI
Page 53 of 103
Cumin Seed
Brief Introduction
Cumin (Cuminum cyminum) is a flowering plant from the family Apiaceae. India
The cumin plant grows to 30–50 cm (12–20 in) tall and is harvested by
India produced 6.29 Lakh MT of cumin in 2021–2022, down by 21% year-
hand. The leaves are 5–10 cm long, pinnate or bipinnate, with thread-like
on-year. The area under cumin declined by 14.1% year-on-year, of which
leaflets. The flowers are small, white or pink, and borne in umbels. Each
umbel has five to seven umbellets. The fruit is a lateral fusiform or ovoid 32% of the area declined in Gujarat. The main reason for low acreage
under cultivation is that farmers shifted to more remunerative
achene 4–5 mm long, containing two mericarps with a single seed.
commodities such as gram and mustard. Also, cumin is sensitive to water
Cumin is grown from seeds. The seeds need 2 to 5 °C for emergence, an and excess moisture in the soil leads to diseases such as wilt. Excess rainfall
optimum of 20–30 °C is suggested. Cumin is vulnerable to frost damage, in the key cumin belts of Dwarka, Banaskantha, and Kutch in Gujarat, and
especially at flowering and early seed formation stages. The seedlings of Jodhpur and Nagaur in Rajasthan increased the probability of wilt attack,
cumin are rather small and their vigor is low. Soaking the seeds for 8 hours preventing farmers from sowing the crop. Yield also declined by 8% year-
before sowing enhances germination. For an optimal plant population, a on-year due to the adverse climatic conditions in the two states which
sowing density of 12–15 kilograms per hectare is recommended. Fertile, deterred proper seed filling. Gujarat is the largest cumin-producing state in
sandy, loamy soils with good aeration, proper drainage, and high oxygen India with a 60% share and Rajasthan accounts for a 40% share of India’s
availability are preferred. The pH optimum of the soil ranges from 6.8 to cumin production.
8.3. Cumin seedlings are sensitive to salinity and emergence from heavy
In the ongoing rabi season, cumin sowing remains higher by 2.2% y-o-y at
soils is rather difficult. Therefore, a proper seedbed preparation (smooth
bed) is crucial for optimal establishment of cumin. Two sowing methods 854,970 hectares against 836,925 hectares in the last year. Cumin sowing in
Gujarat was around 275,830 hectares against 307,135 hectares sown in the
are used for cumin, broadcasting and line sowing.
last year, which is lower by 10.2% y-o-y due to higher temperatures during
Cumin is a drought-tolerant, tropical, or subtropical crop. It takes 100 to the sowing period. The normal area (three years’ average) in Gujarat is
120 days to grow. The optimum growth temperature ranges are between likely to be around 421,457 hectares. Meanwhile, cumin sowing in
25 and 30 °C. The Mediterranean climate is most suitable for its growth. Rajasthan was around 579,140 hectares against 529,790 hectares sown in
Cultivation of cumin requires a long, hot summer of three to four months. the last year, which is higher by 9.3% y-o-y. The fall in acreages from
At low temperatures, the leaf color changes from green to purple. The high Gujarat was offset by increase in acreages in Rajasthan. Cumin production
temperature might reduce the growth period and induce early ripening. In for 2022-2023 is expected around 5.78 Lakh MT which is lower by about
India, cumin is sown from October until the beginning of December, and 7% from the previous year.
harvesting starts in February, the fresh crop generally reaches the markets
during March. In Syria and Iran, cumin is sown from mid-November until
mid-December (extensions up to mid-January are possible) and harvested
in June/July. Trade
Cumin seed is used as a spice for its distinctive flavor and aroma. Cumin
India exported around 2.17 Lakh MT worth Rs.3,344 Crores. as against 2.98
can be found in some cheeses, such as Leyden cheese, and in some
Lakh MT in the previous year. India majorly exports cumin to China,
traditional bread from France. Cumin can be an ingredient in chili powder
Bangladesh, US, UAE, Nepal, Afghanistan, Egypt, and South East Asia.
and is found in achiote blends, adobos, sofrito, garam masala, curry
During April to September 2022 period, cumin seeds exports stood at
powder, and bahaarat, and is used to flavor numerous commercial food
104,024 MT, down by 21.47% y-o-y against 132,457 MT during the same
products. In South Asian cooking it is often combined with coriander seeds
period last year. Exports to China were 33,139 MT, Bangladesh 17,524 MT,
in a powdered mixture called dhana jeera. Cumin can be used ground or as
USA 4236 MT, Nepal 4,017 MT, UAE 3,913 MT, Afghanistan 3,912 MT, and
whole seeds. It imparts an earthy, warming, and aromatic character to
Turkey 2999 MT.
food, making it a staple in certain stews and soups, as well as spiced
gravies such as curry and chili. It is also used as an ingredient in some
pickles and pastries.
Price Trend
Cumin seed prices gained by over 56% year-on-year in 2022. Lower
World production of cumin in 2021-22 amid tight carryover stocks supported the
prices throughout the year. In Q1 2022, cumin prices gained by 34% from
India is the world's largest producer of cumin with a 70% share in global
Rs.14,500 to Rs.19,500 per quintal, thereafter, in Q2 prices moved sideways
production. The other major cumin-producing countries are Syria (13%),
in the price band of Rs.19,300-20,300 per quintal. In Q3 cumin prices
Turkey (5%), UAE (3%), and Iran (4%).
gained by 12.5% and traded at Rs.22,500 per quintal, however, in Q4 prices
softened a bit from the highs as the new season crop sowing progress was
good, which is giving hope for a better production year.
Page 54 of 103
Historical Prices- Jeera Unjha (in Rs/Quintal) Historical Prices- Jeera Jodhpur (in Rs/Quintal)
Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Jan 18180.0 16382.0 14512.0 12004.2 15547.9 Jan 21342.9 17784.6 16800.0 14057.1 16677.5
Feb 17155.4 14991.3 13061.5 12041.9 18056.3 Feb 18688.2 16775.0 15216.7 13581.3 19702.4
Mar 14373.8 14615.0 12579.4 12616.3 19010.2 Mar 16908.8 16606.7 14433.3 13729.2 21186.4
Apr 14184.1 14733.3 12579.4 12843.8 20272.7 Apr 16600.0 16400.0 14506.3 14500.0 22135.7
May 14226.0 15341.0 12583.3 12592.6 20003.1 May 16510.9 16650.0 14400.0 14700.0 22540.0
Jun 15160.0 15459.1 12656.3 12201.0 20003.8 Jun 17145.7 17550.0 14150.0 14258.3 22354.2
Jul 16987.5 15578.7 12532.7 12254.8 20939.4 Jul 18643.2 17000.0 14360.0 13650.0 22937.5
Aug 17887.5 15404.3 12520.2 12623.9 22248.9 Aug 19793.8 16860.0 14553.8 13997.6 24344.4
Sep 17763.2 14938.8 12300.0 13623.0 22129.8 Sep 19433.3 17000.0 13931.6 14497.1 24325.0
Oct 17980.2 14868.1 12332.6 13109.4 21569.4 Oct 20011.1 16225.0 13928.6 14717.9 24491.7
Nov 18110.5 14793.0 12663.2 14438.9 21990.0 Nov 20132.4 16800.0 14411.5 15231.3 24583.3
Dec 17080.4 14848.6 12373.0 14578.8 25526.9 Dec 18747.7 16930.0 14300.0 15657.1 28131.9
Price Seasonality
Crop Seasonality
Sowing Growth Harvesting
Country Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
India
Turkey
Syria
Iran
India Cumin Imports

Year 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Qty ('000 MT) 3.42 0.95 2.62 7.14 4.73
Value (Rs. Crore) 60.66 18.32 44.19 111.21 79.35
India Cumin Exports

Year 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Qty ('000 MT) 143.67 180.30 214.19 298.42 217.00
Value (Rs. Crore) 2417.99 2884.80 3328.06 4251.55 3344.34
Page 55 of 103
Coriander
Brief Introduction
Coriander (Coriandrum sativum) is an annual herb in the family of wise the major decline in acreages was seen from Gujarat by 11%, and
Apiaceae. The plant requires good exposure to sunlight with medium to Madhya Pradesh by 1.7% while remained flat in Rajasthan. Yield declined in
heavy loamy soil, sound drainage, and well-distributed moisture. The Rajasthan by 18.6%, Gujarat by 3.1%, while in Madhya Pradesh increased
commercial parts of the plant are its leaf and seed. The aroma of the fruit is marginally by 0.5% y-o-y. Coriander acreages declined as the farmers
warm, nutty and spicy and it is used for its medicinal properties and also as planted better-performing cash crops in place of coriander while erratic
flavouring and seasoning agent. weather conditions weighed on the yields in key producing states of
Gujarat and Rajasthan.
India is the major producer of coriander. The major producing States in
India are - Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, In the ongoing rabi season, coriander sowing in Gujarat was around
Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Orissa. Domestically major varieties are Badami, 222,792 hectares against 125,444 hectares sown in the last year, which is
Eagle, Scooter, Double Parrot, Single Parrot, and Super Green. The major higher by 77.6% y-o-y. The normal area (three years’ average) in Gujarat is
exporters are India, Turkey, Egypt, Romania, Morocco, Iran and China. The likely to be around 117,465 hectares. Meanwhile, coriander sowing in
major importers are the Middle East, South-east Asia, USA, UK, Germany Rajasthan was around 54,610 hectares against 34,670 hectares sown in the
etc. last year, which is higher by 57.5% y-o-y. The normal area (three years’
average) in Rajasthan is likely to be around 102,870 hectares.
Coriander is used as one of the important spices in food and is consumed
throughout India. Coriander oil and oleoresins are primarily used in
seasonings for sausages and other meat products. An important ingredient
in the manufacture of food flavourings. Coriander powder is used as a
flavouring agent in a number of pharmaceutical preparations, especially
India's Exports
digestive medicines. Coriander exports in 2021-22 was lower by 15% to 0.49 Lakh MT as against
0.57 Lakh MT in the previous year. The top trading partners of India are
Malaysia (14.83 USD Million), Nepal (5.79 USD Million), United Arab
Emirates (4.45 USD Million), United Kingdom (2.1 USD Million), USA (2.92
Crop Seasonality USD Million) and China (2.68 USD Million). During April to September 2022
period, coriander seed exports stood at 16,637 MT, down by 15.48% y-o-y
The sowing period is from October to December while the harvesting
against 19,683 MT during the same period last year. Exports to China were
begins from January and extends to April. Arrivals start in January and
2,584 MT, Malaysia 6,389 MT, Nepal 2009 MT, UAE 1432 MT, UK 575 MT,
continue till April. The crop duration is of 90 days.
and USA 497 MT.
Factors impacting the prices Price Trend

The weather condition in coriander-producing areas especially at the Coriander prices gained by over 59% year-on-year in 2022. Lower
sowing, flowering, and harvesting stage. The demand from the processor production of coriander in 2021-22 amid tight carryover stocks supported
of spices in India and exporting countries. Any changes on the government the prices throughout the year. In Q1 2022, cumin prices gained by 47% y-
tariffs or policies in terms of exports. The carryover stocks from the last o-y to Rs.9,811 from Rs.6688 per quintal in the same period last year,
season. thereafter, in Q2 prices gained by 75% y-o-y to Rs.12,400 from Rs.7070 per
quintal. In Q3 cumin prices gained by 69% y-o-y to Rs.12790 from Rs.7588
per quintal, while in Q4 prices gained by 51% y-o-y to Rs.12690 from
Rs.8415 per quintal. However, prices started to soften gradually from
India's Production November 2022 as the new season crop sowing progress was good, which
is giving hope for a better production year.
Coriander production in 2021-22 was lower by 7.6% to 8.24 Lakh MT as
against 8.91 Lakh MT in the previous year. Production declined due to a
decline in acreages by 2.7% y-o-y while yield declined by 5% y-o-y. State
Historical Prices- Coriander Ramganjmandi Historical Prices- Coriander Neemuch

Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Jan 5497.8 6434.0 7054.3 6293.5 9327.1 Jan 4456.5 5147.4 6223.9 5421.4 7243.4
Feb 5425.6 6312.5 6283.3 6545.2 9695.7 Feb 4215.0 5170.0 5413.9 5290.0 7497.4
Mar 5492.9 6386.9 6082.1 7223.8 10411.4 Mar 4287.5 5403.1 4912.5 5775.0 8415.4
Apr 5414.7 7260.0 6907.1 7097.9 12387.5 Apr 4297.4 6269.8 4912.5 6312.5 11510.0
May 5205.8 7407.9 6400.0 7125.0 12392.0 May 4154.3 6433.3 4912.5 6312.5 11230.0
Jun 4985.3 7389.1 5907.7 6992.0 12425.0 Jun 4023.6 6395.2 5050.0 6135.3 11230.0
Jul 5115.4 7348.1 6448.1 7142.9 12844.2 Jul 4052.8 6194.0 5250.0 5863.8 11230.0
Aug 5200.0 6905.9 6803.8 7570.8 12865.4 Aug 4300.0 5756.7 5465.6 6041.2 10250.0
Sep 5016.7 6433.3 6832.0 8050.0 12660.0 Sep 4109.0 5573.7 5628.6 6312.5 10175.0
Oct 5353.4 6368.4 6692.9 8097.6 12700.0 Oct 4229.4 5547.4 5675.0 6258.3 9736.7
Nov 6148.6 7016.7 6541.7 8521.4 12665.2 Nov 4976.8 6195.5 5731.3 6560.0 9921.1
Dec 6425.0 7131.3 6250.0 8626.9 12315.8 Dec 5155.7 6187.5 5547.4 6791.7 9616.7
Page 56 of 103
Price Seasonality
Crop Seasonality
Bulgaria
China
India
Moroco
Ukraine
Italia
India Coriander Imports

Year 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Qty ('000 MT) 28.04 13.23 12.00 8.78 15.60
Value (Rs. Crore) 132.00 56.09 80.27 58.81 136.47
India Coriander Exports

Year 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Qty ('000 MT) 35.19 48.90 47.14 57.36 48.66
Value (Rs. Crore) 272.75 352.08 398.31 496.28 482.51
Page 57 of 103
Turmeric
Brief Introduction
Turmeric (Curcuma longa) belongs to the Zingiberaceae family. The
commercial part of the plant is its rhizome. It grows in light black, black
India's Production
clayey loams and red soils in irrigated and rainfed conditions with Turmeric production in 2021-22 was higher by 18.7% to 13.34 Lakh MT as
temperatures ranging between 20 to 30 degrees. The crop cannot stand against 11.24 Lakh MT in the previous year. Production increased due to an
water logging or alkalinity. Turmeric is used to flavour and to colour increase in acreages by 19.3% y-o-y while yield declined by 0.5% y-o-y.
foodstuffs. It is used in cosmetics and in medicines. Turmeric is ready for State wise the major increase in acreages was seen from Maharashtra by
harvesting in 7-9 months. Sowing starts from May end with the onset of 72%, Tamil Nadu 16%, Telangana by 22% and Karnataka 4% while
monsoon and extends till August while arrivals start from December – remained lower in Andhra Pradesh by 16%. Yield declined in Maharashtra
January and extend up to May across various producing centres. by 7%, Telangana by 15%, and Karnataka by 4% while in Andhra Pradesh
increased by 22% y-o-y. Turmeric acreages increased as the prices were
Turmeric is a very important spice in India, which produces nearly entire
quite remunerative which encouraged the farmers to increase their
whole world’s crop and consumes 80% of it. Indian turmeric is considered
planting area under Turmeric.
to be the best in the world market because of its high curcumin content.
India accounts for about 80 % of world turmeric production and 60% of
world exports. Telangana and Andhra Pradesh together occupy 50% of the
total area followed by Maharashtra, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. Trade
Turmeric exports in 2021-22 was lower by 17% y-o-y to 1.53 Lakh MT as
against 1.84 Lakh MT in the previous year. The top trading partners of
Seasonality India are US, Bangladesh, UAE, Iran, Malaysia, UK, Morocco, Germany,
Japan and Netherlands. During April to September 2022 period, Turmeric
Fresh turmeric arrival in India starts from mid-January and continues till
exports stood at 88,384 MT, up by 14.65% y-o-y against 77,091 MT during
June. Stored produce is available throughout the year. Sowing of turmeric
the same period last year. Exports to Bangladesh was 17,241.78 MT, UAE
starts from mid-June to October. Turmeric crop takes 180 – 200 days to
10,726.20 MT, Iran 7,685.75 MT, Morocco 4,524.53 MT, Malaysia 3,758.45
mature and needs another 10-15 days of on-farm post-harvest activities to
MT, USA 3,487.64 MT, and China 3220 MT.
make the turmeric acceptable for consumption. The tuberous rhizomes or
underground stems of turmeric have been used from antiquity as
condiments, a dye and as an aromatic stimulant in several medicines.
Curcumin, a phytochemical is the active ingredient in turmeric and has Price Trend
wide range of therapeutic effects.
Turmeric prices spiked earlier this year and touched the high of Rs.9200
per quintal, up by 47% on a year-on-year basis because of reports of
possible crop losses. However, the prices have eased since April after a
robust harvest. Looking forward to 2023, turmeric prices are likely to
Factors influencing the price rebound mainly due to supply concerns. Eyeing the supply issues the spice
millers would try to cover their buying requirements aggressively. Even the
The weather condition in the Turmeric producing areas especially at the
stockist will also be active as the export demand remained lucrative in the
sowing, flowering, and harvesting stage. The demand for turmeric seed
last few years. Hence, higher turmeric prices will prompt the farmers to
from Spice manufacturers in India and Exporting Countries. The
increase the acreages under turmeric in 2023 and that would cap the major
government policies on imports and export. Also the carryover stocks from
gains in prices during Q3 2023.
the last year.
Historical Prices- Turmeric Nizamabad (in Rs/Quintal) Historical Prices- Turmeric Sangli (in Rs/Quintal)
Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Month 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Jan 7180.6 6381.6 5588.2 5220.0 7827.8 Jan 7450.0 6866.7 5587.5 6090.0 8981.8
Feb 6350.0 5993.8 5363.9 6728.6 7715.4 Feb 7222.7 6512.5 5540.0 7233.3 8554.5
Mar 5814.3 5750.0 5228.6 6940.0 7340.0 Mar 6770.0 5850.0 5688.9 8304.8 7711.1
Apr 5967.9 5925.0 5228.6 7310.0 7408.3 Apr 6736.4 6200.0 5688.9 7870.6 7205.0
May 7100.0 6182.5 5228.6 6972.2 7318.8 May 7438.5 6127.3 5258.8 7783.3 6937.5
Jun 7048.7 5956.3 4961.9 6652.4 7090.0 Jun 7115.0 6005.6 5263.0 7280.0 6816.7
Jul 6917.9 5968.4 5141.2 6352.4 7026.7 Jul 7300.0 6027.8 5420.0 7000.0 6895.5
Aug 6540.6 6138.9 5180.0 6758.8 6200.0 Aug 7265.0 6255.6 5420.0 7458.3 7130.0
Sep 6421.4 5835.7 5326.3 6611.1 5983.3 Sep 6778.6 6130.0 5225.0 7500.0 6823.1
Oct 6416.9 5685.7 5325.0 6373.3 6000.0 Oct 6994.4 5820.0 5250.0 7100.0 6910.0
Nov 6606.3 5691.2 5326.7 6452.9 6078.9 Nov 6985.7 5930.0 5825.0 7533.3 7362.5
Dec 6590.6 5621.1 5243.3 7145.5 6037.5 Dec 6910.0 5516.7 5738.5 8207.1 7241.7
Page 58 of 103
Price Seasonality
Crop Seasonality
India
China
Myanmar
Bangladesh
India Turmeric Imports

Year 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Qty ('000 MT) 17.12 30.58 28.58 25.71 24.48
Value (Rs. Crore) 184.34 299.47 245.79 229.17 245.77
India Turmeric Exports

Year 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Qty ('000 MT) 107.30 133.60 137.65 183.87 153.15
Value (Rs. Crore) 1035.68 1416.16 1286.91 1722.65 1784.34
India Turmeric Imports India Turmeric Exports

Qty ('000 MT) Value (Rs. Crore) Qty ('000 MT) Value (Rs. Crore)
35 350 250 2500
30 300
200 2000
25 250
20 200 150 1500
15 150 100 1000
10 100
50 500
5 50
0 0 0 0
2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22
Source: DGFT,GOI/ Origo e-Mandi Research Source: DGFT,GOI/ Origo e-Mandi Research
Page 59 of 103
Commodity Price Trend

India Agri Commodities Price Trend 1
Rice - 1121 Sella White - Bundi Historical Price

Trend
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2018
2018
2018
2018
2019
2019
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
2021
2021
2021
2021
2021
2022
2018
2018
2019
2019
2019
2022
2022
2022
2022
2022
Wheat Kanpur Historical Price Trend Wheat Delhi Historical Price Trend
3000 3500
2500 3000
2500
2000
2000
1500
1500
1000
1000
500 500
0 0
2018
2018
2018
2018
2019
2019
2019
2019
2019
2020
2020
2020
2020
2021
2021
2021
2021
2022
2022
2022
2022
2022
2018
2018
2019
2019
2019
2020
2020
2020
2021
2021
2021
2021
2021
2022
2022
2022
2022
2022
2022
2018
2018
2020
2021
2021
2022
2018
2018
2018
2019
2019
2019
2020
2020
2021
Page 60 of 103
Page 61 of 103
Page 62 of 103
Page 63 of 103
India Agri Commodities Price Trend 2
Page 64 of 103
India Metals and Energies Price Trend
Page 65 of 103
Currencies Price Trend
Page 66 of 103
Page 67 of 103
International Commodities Price Trend
Page 68 of 103
Commodities Correlation with US Dollar Index
Page 69 of 103
Ratio Trend-Palm
Page 70 of 103
Arrivals
Page 71 of 103
Page 72 of 103
Crop Insurance in India

About 50% of Indians are farmers whose livelihood directly depends on the crops they produced. Agriculture donates about 16% to the overall GDP of the
country. It is painful to write that farming in India is still one of the riskiest businesses and our farmers are poised for floods, droughts, hail, pests, crop
diseases, and steep fluctuations in the prices of farm produce. Every year, we heard the sad and shocking news about our farmers taking grave measures
(suicide) due to crop failure and inability to pay the loan taken for farming business. About 5,579 Indian farmers died by suicide in 2020, 18% rise y.o.y.,
according to the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), which has published reports on farmer suicides up to 2020 in November 2021.
But to deal with the farmers’ pain, the government has launched crop insurance scheme Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojna (https://pmfby.gov.in) and
Weather Based Crop Insurance Scheme to minimize the heavy risk highly associated with agriculture. Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojna (PMFBY) was
introduced in 2016, replacing all the existing yield insurance schemes in India. Famers or agriculture producers now have the facility to purchase crop
insurance to protect against the loss of revenue due to declines in the prices of agricultural commodities or from the loss of their crops due to natural
disasters.
Types of Crop Insurance

Following are the two categories of crop insurance:
1. Crop Revenue Insurance
2. Crop Yield Insurance
Which can be further classified into various schemes such as
• Crop insurance, Whether insurance,

• Rabi Weather Insurance,
• Rainfall insurance/ Varsha Bima,
• Wheat Insurance, Potato Insurance,
• Power failure insurance, Farmers insurance,
• Mango Insurance, Plant insurance,
• Poppy Insurance, Grapes Insurance,
• Pulpwood Tree Insurance,
• Rubber Insurance, and
• Coconut Insurance.
Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojna
Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) aims at supporting sustainable production in the agriculture sector by way of:
• Providing financial support to farmers suffering crop loss/damage arising out of unforeseen events,
• Stabilizing the income of farmers to ensure their continuance in farming,
• Encouraging farmers to adopt innovative and modern agricultural practices,
• Ensuring the flow of credit to the agriculture sector; will contribute to food security, crop diversification, and enhancing growth and competitiveness
of the agriculture sector besides protecting farmers from production risks.
All farmers including sharecroppers and tenant farmers growing notified crops in the notified areas are eligible under this scheme.
Coverage of Farmers
Loanee Farmers (Compulsory Coverage): All the farmers availing seasonal agriculture operations (SAO) loans from financial institutes (Loanee farmers / KCC
holders) for the notified crop would be covered compulsorily.
Non-Loanee Farmers: The Scheme would be optional for the non-loanee farmers.
Coverage of Crops
All Food Crops (Cereals, Millets, and Pulses), Oilseeds,
Annual Commercial/Horticulture Crops.
Coverage of Risks
Following stages of the crop and risks leading to crop loss are covered under the scheme.
• Prevented Sowing/ Planting Risk: The insured area is prevented from sowing/ planting due to deficit rainfall or adverse seasonal conditions
• Standing Crop (Sowing to Harvesting): Comprehensive risk insurance is provided to cover yield losses due to non-preventable risks, viz. Drought, Dry
spells, Flood, Inundation, Pests and Diseases, Landslides, Natural Fire and lightning, Storm, Hailstorm, Cyclone, Typhoon, Tempest, Hurricane, and
Tornado.
• Post-Harvest Losses: coverage is available only up to a maximum period of two weeks from harvesting for those crops which are allowed to dry in cut
and spread conditions in the field after harvesting against specific perils of the cyclone and cyclonic rains and unseasonal rains.
• Localized Calamities: Loss/ damage resulting from the occurrence of identified localized risks of hailstorm, landslide, and Inundation affecting isolated
farms in the notified area.
General Exclusions: Losses arising out of war and nuclear risks, malicious damage, and other preventable risks shall be excluded.
List of Crop Insurance Service Providers
1. Agriculture Insurance Company of India Limited,

2. ICICI Lombard General Insurance Co. Ltd.
3. IFFCO TOKIO General Insurance Co. Ltd.
Page 73 of 103
4. HDFC ERGO General Insurance Co. Ltd.

5. Chola Mandalam MS General Insurance Co. Ltd.
6. Tata-AIG General Insurance Co. Ltd.
7. Future Generali India Insurance Company Ltd.
8. Reliance General Insurance Company Ltd.
9. Bajaj Allianz General Insurance Co. Ltd.
10. Universal Sompo General Insurance Co. Ltd.
11. SBI General Insurance Co. Ltd.
The insured farmer will also get cover for the following:
• Loss or damage to the property of the insured farmer

• Damage or loss caused due to fire or natural disaster (including storm, flood, tornado, earthquake, cyclone, etc.)
• Cover for loss of pump set
• Cover for damage/loss of tractor
• Coverage for damage/loss caused by power failure
Useful links and number:

1. https://pmfby.gov.in/
2. Farmers corners: https://pmfby.gov.in/farmerLogin
3. Premium Calculater: https://pmfby.gov.in/
4. Report Crop Losses https://pmfby.gov.in/
5. Toll Free for Crop Insurance :1800 568 9999.
Schemes available are:
• National Agricultural Insurance Scheme (NAIS) of Government of India

• National Crop Insurance Programme (NCIP) of Government of India:
i. Modified National Agricultural Insurance Scheme (MNAIS),
ii. Weather Based Crop Insurance Scheme (WBCIS) and
iii. Coconut Palm Insurance Scheme (CPIS)
Page 74 of 103
MSP
MSP
Commodity Variety 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
KHARIF CROPS
Common 1550 1750 1815 1868 1940 2040
PADDY
Grade 'A' 1590 1770 1835 1888 1960 2060
Hybrid 1700 2430 2550 2620 2738 2970
JOWAR
Maldandi 1725 2450 2570 2640 2758 2990
BAJRA 1425 1950 2000 2150 2250 2350
MAIZE 1425 1700 1760 1850 1870 1962
RAGI 1900 2897 3150 3295 3377 3578
TUR (Arhar) 5450 5675 5800 6000 6300 6600
MOONG 5575 6975 7050 7196 7275 7755
URAD 5400 5600 5700 6000 6300 6600
Medium Staple 4020 5150 5255 5515 5726 6080
COTTON
Long Staple 4320 5450 5550 5825 6025 6380
GROUNDNUT 4450 4890 5090 5275 5550 5850
SUNFLOWER SEED 4100 5388 5650 5885 6015 6400
SOYABEAN Black - - - - - -
Yellow 3050 3399 3710 3880 3950 4300
SESAMUM - 5300 6249 6485 6855 7307 7830
NIGERSEED - 4050 5877 5940 6695 6930 7287
RABI CROPS
WHEAT 1735 1840 1925 1975 2015 2125
BARLEY - 1410 1440 1525 1600 1635 1735
GRAM - 4400 4620 4875 5100 5230 5335
MASUR (LENTIL) - 4250 4475 4800 5100 5500 6000
MUSTARD - 4000 4200 4425 4650 5050 5450
SAFFLOWER - 4100 4945 5215 5327 5441 5650
TORIA - 3900 4190 4425 4650 - -
OTHER CROPS
COPRA Milling 6500 7511 9521 9960 10335 10590
Ball 6785 7750 9920 10300 10600 11000
DE-HUSKED COCONUT
1760 2030 2571 2700 2800 2860
JUTE 3500 3700 3950 4225 4500 4750
Cotton MSP
Variety 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
SHORT STAPLE (20MM & BELOW)
Assam Comilla 3520 4650 4755 5015 5226 5580
Bengal Desi 3520 4650 4755 5015 5226 5580
MEDIUM STAPLE (20.5MM - 24.5MM)
Jayadhar 3770 4900 5005 5265 5476 5830
V797/G-Cot-13/G.Cot-21 3820 4950 5055 5315 5526 5880
AK/Y-1(Mah./MP)
PCO-2 AP/Kar/K-11(TN)
3870 5000 5105 5365 5576 5930
MCU-7 (TN)
SVPR-2(TN)
MEDIUM LONG STAPLE (25.0MM-27.0MM)
J-34 Raj 4020 5150 5255 5515 5726 6080
LRA 5166/KC-2 (TN) 4120 5250 5355 5615 5826 6180
F414/H777/J-34 Hyb 4170 5300 5405 5665 5876 6230
LONG STAPLE (27.5MM-32.0MM)
F414/H777/J-34 Hyb 4220 5350 5450 5725 5925 6280
H-4/H-6/MECH/RCH-2 4220 5350 5450 5725 5925 6280
Sanker-6 Gujarat/10 4270 5400 5500 5775 5975 6330
Bunny
4320 5450 5550 5825 6025 6380
Brahma
EXTRA LONG STAPLE (32.5MM & ABOVE)
MCU-5 /Surabhi 4520 5650 5750 6025 6225 6580
DCH-32 4720 5850 5950 6225 6425 6780
Suvin 5520 6650 6750 7025 7225 7580
Page 75 of 103
Advance Estimates of Production of Oilseeds and Commercial Crops for 2022-23

2021-22 2022-23
Fourth First Advance
Crop Season 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
Advance Target Estimates
Estimates 2021-22
Kharif 60.48 75.95 53.87 83.89 85.28 83.75 86.05 83.69
Groundnut Rabi 14.14 16.57 13.4 15.63 17.16 17.32
Total 74.62 92.53 67.27 99.52 102.44 101.06 86.05 83.69
Castorseed Kharif 13.76 15.68 11.97 18.42 16.47 16.11 22.7 15.08
Sesamum Kharif 7.47 7.55 6.89 6.58 8.17 7.62 10 6.34
Nigerseed Kharif 0.85 0.7 0.45 0.41 0.42 0.34 1.2 0.3
Soyabean Kharif 131.59 109.33 132.68 112.26 126.1 129.95 147.65 128.92
Kharif 1.11 0.85 0.9 0.92 0.78 1.12 1.3 1.4
Sunflower Rabi 1.41 1.37 1.26 1.21 1.51 1.4
Total 2.51 2.22 2.16 2.13 2.28 2.53 1.3 1.4
Rapeseed &
Rabi 79.17 84.3 92.56 91.24 102.1 117.46
Mustard
Linseed Rabi 1.84 1.74 0.99 1.21 1.11 1.33
Safflower Rabi 0.94 0.55 0.25 0.44 0.36 0.57
Kharif 215.26 210.06 206.76 222.47 237.23 238.88 268.9 235.73
Total Nine
Rabi 97.5 104.53 108.46 109.72 122.24 138.08
Oilseeds
Total 312.76 314.59 315.22 332.19 359.46 376.96 268.9 235.73
Sugarcane Total 3060.69 3799.05 4054.16 3705 4053.99 4318.12 4150 4650.49
Cotton Total 325.77 328.05 280.42 360.65 352.48 312.03 370 341.9
Jute Total 104.32 95.91 94.97 94.46 89.53 99.08 100 96.64
Mesta Total 5.3 4.42 3.23 4.31 4.02 4.09 5 4.26
Jute & Mesta Total 109.62 100.33 98.2 98.77 93.54 103.17 105 100.9
Source: MOA, GOI (Units in Lakh Tonnes)
Advance Estimates of Production of Food Grains for 2022-23

2021-22 2022-23
Fourth First Advance
Crop Season 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
Advance Target Estimates
Estimates 2021-22
Kharif 96.3 97.14 102.04 102.28 105.21 111.76 112 104.99
Rice Rabi 13.4 15.62 14.44 16.59 19.16 18.53
Total 109.7 112.76 116.48 118.87 124.37 130.29 112 104.99
Wheat Rabi 98.51 99.87 103.6 107.86 109.59 106.84
Kharif 1.96 2.27 1.74 1.7 1.99 1.59 3 1.69
Jowar Rabi 2.6 2.53 1.74 3.08 2.83 2.64
Total 4.57 4.8 3.48 4.77 4.81 4.23 3 1.69
Bajra Kharif 9.73 9.21 8.66 10.36 10.86 9.62 11.3 9.75
Kharif 18.92 20.12 19.41 19.43 21.56 22.63 23.1 23.1
Maize Rabi 6.98 8.63 8.3 9.34 10.09 10.99
Total 25.9 28.75 27.72 28.77 31.65 33.62 23.1 23.1
Ragi Kharif 1.39 1.99 1.24 1.76 2 1.7 2.5 1.6
Small Millets Kharif 0.44 0.44 0.33 0.37 0.35 0.37 0.7 0.42
Barley Rabi 1.75 1.78 1.63 1.72 1.66 1.36
Kharif 13.52 13.91 11.97 14.19 15.19 13.28 17.5 13.46
Nutri Cereals Rabi 2.6 2.53 1.74 3.08 2.83 2.64
Total 16.12 16.44 13.71 17.26 18.02 15.92 17.5 13.46
Kharif 32.44 34.03 31.38 33.61 36.75 35.91 40.6 36.56
Nutri/Coarse
Rabi 11.33 12.94 11.67 14.13 14.57 14.99
Cereals
Total 43.77 46.97 43.06 47.75 51.32 50.9 40.6 36.56
Kharif 128.74 131.16 133.42 135.89 141.96 147.67 152.6 141.55
Cereals Rabi 123.24 128.44 129.71 138.59 143.32 140.36
Total 251.98 259.6 263.14 274.48 285.28 288.03 152.6 141.55
Tur Kharif 4.87 4.29 3.32 3.89 4.32 4.34 4.55 3.89
Gram Rabi 9.38 11.38 9.94 11.08 11.91 13.75
Kharif 2.18 2.75 2.36 1.33 1.51 1.94 2.7 1.84
Urad Rabi 0.66 0.74 0.7 0.75 0.72 0.9
Total 2.83 3.49 3.06 2.08 2.23 2.84 2.7 1.84
Kharif 1.64 1.43 1.78 1.83 2 1.48 2.5 1.75
Moong Rabi 0.52 0.59 0.67 0.68 1.09 1.68
Total 2.17 2.02 2.46 2.51 3.09 3.15 2.5 1.75
Lentil Rabi 1.22 1.62 1.23 1.1 1.49 1.28
Other Kharif
Kharif 0.89 0.83 0.63 0.87 0.8 0.62 0.8 0.89
Pulses
Other Rabi Pulses Rabi 1.77 1.78 1.45 1.49 1.63 1.71
Kharif 9.58 9.31 8.09 7.92 8.62 8.37 10.55 8.37
Total Pulses Rabi 13.55 16.11 13.98 15.1 16.84 19.32
Total 23.13 25.42 22.08 23.03 25.46 27.69 10.55 8.37
Kharif 138.33 140.47 141.52 143.81 150.58 156.04 163.15 149.92
Total Foodgrains Rabi 136.78 144.55 143.7 153.69 160.17 159.68
Total 275.11 285.01 285.21 297.5 310.74 315.72 163.15 149.92
Source: MOA, GOI (Units in Million Tonnes)
Page 76 of 103
Origo Kharif Crop Production Estimate 2022

Rice Production Estimate-CY: 2022-23
Preliminary
Area (Million Ha) Yield (MT/Ha) Production (Million MT)
States Estimate
2021-22 2022-23 %Change 2021-22 2022-23 %Change 2021-22 2022-23 %Change Sep-22
Uttar Pradesh 6.03 5.78 -4% 2.53 2.16 -15% 15.27 12.48 -18% 13.95
West Bengal 4.25 3.85 -9% 2.83 2.61 -8% 12.02 10.07 -16% 10.05
Chhattisgarh 3.75 3.70 -1% 2.03 2.02 0% 7.62 7.48 -2% 6.72
Odisha 3.51 3.52 0% 2.28 2.19 -4% 8.00 7.72 -4% 6.37
Bihar 3.26 3.07 -6% 2.09 1.95 -6% 6.82 5.99 -12% 6.02
Punjab 3.07 3.13 2% 4.20 4.20 0% 12.87 13.16 2% 13.12
Madhya Pradesh 2.41 3.22 34% 2.03 2.04 1% 4.89 6.57 34% 6.57
Haryana 1.36 1.46 7% 3.39 3.05 -10% 4.62 4.45 -4% 4.45
Others 12.78 12.56 -2% 3.10 2.50 -19% 39.66 31.41 -21% 29.44
All India 40.42 40.29 -0.3% 2.77 2.47 -11% 111.76 99.33 -11% 96.68
Area in Million Ha, Yield in MT/Ha, Production in Million MT
Maize Production Estimate-CY: 2022-23
Area (Million Ha) Yield (MT/Ha) Production (Million MT) Preliminary Estimate
States
Madhya Pradesh 1.52 1.61 7% 2.74 2.51 -8% 4.16 4.06 -2% 4.64
Karnataka 1.39 1.41 2% 3.31 3.02 -9% 4.61 4.27 -7% 4.33
Rajasthan 0.94 0.94 0% 2.09 2.15 3% 1.95 2.02 3% 2.03
Maharashtra 0.87 0.88 0% 2.67 2.63 -2% 2.33 2.30 -1% 2.30
Uttar Pradesh 0.77 0.75 -2% 2.19 2.12 -3% 1.69 1.60 -5% 1.60
Telangana 0.29 0.25 -13% 4.56 4.01 -12% 1.32 1.01 -24% 0.93
Others 2.38 2.34 -2% 2.40 2.62 9% 5.72 6.12 7% 6.12
All India 8.15 8.18 0.4% 2.67 2.60 -2% 21.77 21.31 -2% 21.95
Soybean Production Estimate-CY: 2022-23

Preliminary
States Estimate
Madhya Pradesh 5.51 5.02 -9% 0.94 0.95 2% 5.18 4.79 -7% 4.79
Maharashtra 4.59 4.87 6% 1.10 1.18 7% 5.06 5.74 14% 5.74
Rajasthan 1.06 1.15 8% 0.76 0.72 -5% 0.81 0.83 2% 0.98
Telangana 0.14 0.17 23% 1.01 1.24 22% 0.14 0.22 50% 0.22
Karnataka 0.38 0.44 14% 1.00 0.96 -5% 0.38 0.42 9% 0.42
Other 0.37 0.39 5% 1.02 0.88 -14% 0.38 0.34 -9% 0.34
All India 12.06 12.04 0% 0.99 1.02 3% 11.95 12.33 3% 12.48
Cotton Production Estimate-CY: 2022-23

Preliminary
Area (Million Ha) Yield (MT/Ha) Production (Million Bales)
States Estimate
Andhra Pradesh 0.54 0.59 10% 0.48 0.49 3% 1.50 1.70 13% 1.70
Gujarat 2.26 2.55 13% 0.61 0.69 14% 8.08 10.35 28% 9.57
Haryana 0.65 0.65 0% 0.45 0.47 5% 1.71 1.80 5% 1.80
Karnataka 0.69 0.81 18% 0.50 0.45 -10% 2.03 2.15 6% 2.15
Madhya Pradesh 0.59 0.60 2% 0.58 0.52 -9% 2.00 1.84 -8% 1.84
Maharashtra 4.18 4.23 1% 0.32 0.38 21% 7.80 9.53 22% 8.50
Odisha 0.19 0.22 12% 0.54 0.54 1% 0.61 0.68 12% 0.68
Punjab 0.30 0.25 -18% 0.56 0.68 21% 1.01 0.99 -1% 0.99
Rajasthan 0.76 0.65 -14% 0.59 0.61 3% 2.62 2.32 -11% 2.32
Tamil Nadu 0.13 0.03 -76% 0.40 0.39 -4% 0.30 0.07 -77% 0.07
Telangana 2.05 1.97 -4% 0.32 0.39 23% 3.84 4.52 18% 4.52
Others 0.02 0.03 38% 0.48 0.39 -19% 0.05 0.06 12% 0.06
All India 12.35 12.57 2% 0.43 0.49 12% 31.53 36.02 14% 34.21
Area in Million Ha, Yield in MT/Ha, Production in Million Bales
Page 77 of 103
Castor Production Estimate-CY: 2022-23

Preliminary
States Estimate
Gujarat 0.65 0.60 -7% 2.16 2.01 -7% 1.40 1.21 -13% 1.18
Rajasthan 0.12 0.15 27% 1.32 1.58 20% 0.15 0.24 52% 0.24
Andhra Pradesh 0.02 0.03 51% 0.54 0.52 -4% 0.01 0.01 45% 0.02
Telangana 0.00 0.00 -49% 0.49 0.67 38% 0.00 0.00 -29% 0.00
Others 0.02 0.01 -42% 0.57 0.53 -7% 0.01 0.01 -46% 0.01
All India 0.81 0.79 -2% 1.95 1.85 -5% 1.58 1.47 -7% 1.45
Groundnut Production Estimate-CY: 2022-23

Preliminary
States Estimate
Gujarat 1.93 1.71 -11% 1.97 1.74 -12% 3.80 2.97 -22% 3.92
Rajasthan 0.80 0.79 -1% 2.13 2.16 1% 1.70 1.71 1% 1.76
Tamil Nadu 0.23 0.23 -3% 2.01 2.10 4% 0.47 0.47 2% 0.49
Andhra Pradesh 0.63 0.54 -14% 0.65 0.72 10% 0.41 0.39 -5% 0.46
Madhya Pradesh 0.38 0.45 18% 1.55 1.55 0% 0.59 0.70 18% 0.75
Karnataka 0.48 0.37 -22% 0.85 0.83 -2% 0.40 0.31 -24% 0.29
Maharashtra 0.20 0.16 -22% 1.18 1.22 3% 0.24 0.19 -19% 0.19
Others 0.27 0.29 8% 0.77 0.90 17% 0.21 0.26 26% 0.28
All India 4.91 4.54 -8% 1.70 1.54 -9% 8.38 7.00 -16% 8.13
Moong Production Estimate-CY: 2022-23

Preliminary
States Estimate
Rajasthan 2.20 2.05 -7% 0.41 0.48 18% 0.91 1.00 10% 1.00
Maharashtra 0.38 0.28 -26% 0.48 0.49 2% 0.18 0.14 -25% 0.14
Karnataka 0.42 0.41 -1% 0.40 0.34 -14% 0.17 0.14 -14% 0.14
Gujarat 0.10 0.08 -22% 0.44 0.50 12% 0.04 0.04 -13% 0.04
Telangana 0.04 0.03 -26% 0.60 0.61 1% 0.02 0.02 -25% 0.02
Madhya Pradesh 0.16 0.20 24% 0.34 0.36 5% 0.06 0.07 30% 0.07
Others 0.23 0.26 11% 0.45 0.49 9% 0.10 0.13 21% 0.13
All India 3.53 3.31 -6% 0.42 0.50 19% 1.48 1.53 3% 1.53
Tur Production Estimate-CY: 2022-23

Preliminary
States Estimate
Karnataka 1.45 1.40 -3% 0.65 0.61 -5% 0.93 0.84 -10% 0.86
Maharashtra 1.32 1.17 -12% 0.89 0.88 -1% 1.17 0.90 -23% 1.02
Madhya Pradesh 0.23 0.44 92% 1.17 1.17 0% 0.27 0.46 73% 0.51
Andhra Pradesh 0.21 0.18 -14% 0.34 0.35 0% 0.07 0.07 2% 0.06
Gujarat 0.23 0.22 -2% 1.16 1.14 -2% 0.26 0.25 -5% 0.26
Jharkhand 0.25 0.18 -29% 1.05 1.03 -2% 0.27 0.18 -31% 0.18
Telangana 0.36 0.22 -38% 0.74 0.69 -6% 0.26 0.15 -42% 0.15
Uttar Pradesh 0.35 0.36 3% 0.94 0.95 1% 0.33 0.33 -1% 0.35
Others 0.38 0.38 0% 0.71 0.71 0% 0.27 0.27 0% 0.27
All India 4.78 4.55 -5% 0.80 0.81 0% 3.84 3.47 -10% 3.66
Urad Production Estimate-CY: 2022-23

Preliminary
States Estimate
Madhya Pradesh 1.57 1.69 8% 0.29 0.30 2% 0.46 0.48 5% 0.51
Uttar Pradesh 0.70 0.71 2% 0.54 0.51 -6% 0.38 0.35 -9% 0.36
Maharashtra 0.45 0.36 -21% 0.62 0.61 -2% 0.28 0.19 -32% 0.22
Rajasthan 0.40 0.32 -20% 0.37 0.43 15% 0.15 0.14 -8% 0.14
Jharkhand 0.13 0.09 -32% 0.78 0.83 6% 0.10 0.07 -28% 0.07
Others 0.70 0.53 -24% 0.53 0.57 8% 0.37 0.30 -18% 0.30
All India 3.94 3.70 -6% 0.44 0.43 -2% 1.74 1.53 -12% 1.60
Page 78 of 103
Crop Analysis- Cotton

Cotton has multiple sowing periods. Irrigated areas go for summer better crop growth as the cotton crop has received enough water this
planting while rain-fed areas only after the onset of monsoon. season. Yield and crop are expected well in this region.
Better progress of monsoon over the growing regions of cotton was There are 20 key producing districts in Maharashtra. Out of 20, 12 districts
favourable for the cotton crop area. Farmers also preferred cotton over have received normal rainfall. These districts are Akola, Hingoli, Buldhana,
other crops due to better crop realization in the last year. Pests in Punjab Jalna, Jalgaon, Washim, Amrawati, Ahmednagar, Parbhani, Nandurbar,
& Haryana damaged some crop areas, but excessive rainfall in July didn’t Aurangabad, and Bid while 8 districts have received excess rainfall. These
impact the crop as feared for Maharashtra as cotton can withstand moister districts are Yavatmal, Chandrapur, Osmanabad, Dhule, Nanded, Nagpur,
stress for about 30 days at the initial days of sowing. Only a few areas of Nashik, and Wardha.
Telangana and Karnataka reported some crop loss due to excessive rainfall.
Better rainfall, higher areas, and better yield expectations will compensate
for crop loss due to pests in the north and excessive rain in Telangana and
Karnataka. GUJARAT
The early sown cotton crop has started hitting in mandis of Haryana and Gujarat is the second largest cotton-producing state in India. Key
Punjab and its pace of arrivals will pick up from the first week of October producing districts of Gujarat had deficient rainfall in June but it didn’t
onwards. While the southern and Rajasthan region’s crops will start coming impact the sowing much as the most area in Gujarat is irrigated and
to the mandis from the first week of October. farmers did re-planting in July in the rain-fed areas after rain showers
started. Rainfall progressed well since mid-July 2022 and the widespread
The cotton sowing window is almost closed and we don’t expect any rains continued till the 3rd week of August 2022, paving the way for the
substantial change in the current cotton acreage number. Therefore, 12.57 higher area under Cotton in Gujarat.
million hectares are the final acreages for the crop for this Kharif season.
Crop in Gujarat should be analyzed in two ways, i.e., south and north
Gujarat zone-wise. Few areas in Baroda and Narmada of the south Gujarat
region were damaged due to excessive rains. North Gujarat had delayed
sowing but crop height is now 2-4 feet in Banaskantha and Sabarkantha.
Crop & Monsoon Progress- In Key
Saurashtra, which accounts for 60% of the total cotton crop in Gujarat, has
Producing States a decent crop growth and the plant has reached a height of 4-5 feet in
Maharashtra, Gujarat, Telangana, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Haryana, and Junagarh, Rajkot, Jamnagar, Morbi, and Surendranagar. Arrivals of crops
Punjab are the largest producers of cotton. Maharashtra, Gujarat, and that have achieved 4-5 feet growth in Gujarat’s few pockets have started
Telangana account for about 70% of the total crop due to higher yields. but have an excess moister content of 30% to 40%. Normally, the arrival of
cotton starts in Gujarat after the Navaratri festival and picks up the
Cotton can withstand moister stress for about 30 days. That’s the pretty momentum post-Diwali.
reason deficient rainfall in June had not impacted the crop and now cotton
is needed sunny weather to have better growth. Cotton sowing in Gujarat is 12.86% higher than in the same period last
year. So far 2.55 million hectares are sown against 2.26 million hectares
About 50% of farmers in Gujarat and Maharashtra normally do planting in sown in 2021. Yield and crop are expected well in this region.
early June, betting on one or two rain showers. If germination fails due to
no rain, they again go for replanting in July after the onset of the There are 18 key producing districts in Gujarat. Out of 18, 10 districts have
monsoon. Maharashtra has deficient rainfall in the second half of August received normal rainfall. These districts are Ahmedabad, Gandhi Nagar,
which is positive for crop progress while the Gujarat regions showed a Surendranagar, Bhavnagar, Panchmahal, Kheda, Vadodara, Jamnagar,
clear sky in the last week of August. Now, if these regions will have sunny Rajkot, and Amreli. 6 districts have received excess rainfall. These districts
weather in September, certainly crop size will be on the higher side. Scanty are Bharuch, Mehsana, Junagarh, Sabarkantha, Patan,
rainfall after an interval of 6 to 8 days can be beneficial but excess rainfall
and Narmada. While 2 districts have received large excess rainfall and
could impact the crop. Therefore, weather and rainfall in September will be
these are Banaskanta and Kutch.
key for getting the actual crop yield and number.
MAHARASHTRA TELANGANA
Telangana is the third largest cotton-producing state in India. Cotton
Maharashtra is the largest cotton-producing state in India. Key producing
sowing in Telangana is 3.85% lower than in the same period last year. So
districts of Maharashtra had deficient rainfall in June, leading to re-sowing
far 1.97 million hectares are sown against 2.05 million hectares sown in
as because of the high heatwave in June germination failed and farmers
2021. Some crop areas were damaged due to excessive rainfall. Now,
went for re-planting in July. Rainfall progressed well since mid-July 2022
sunny weather will be good for a better yield.
and the widespread
There are 9 key producing districts in Telangana. Out of 9, Nizamabad,
rains continued till the first half of August 2022, paving the way for the
Karimnagar, Mahbubnagar, and Adilabad have received large excess
higher area under Cotton in Maharashtra.
rainfall while, Warangal, Rangareddy, and Medak have received large
Cotton sowing in Maharashtra is 1.1% higher than in the same period last rainfall. Only Khammam and Nalgonda have received normal rain.
sown in 2021.
During the second half of August 2022, the pace of rainfall diminished KARNATAKA
catastrophically, resulting in sunny weather that is again good for healthy
Karnataka is the fourth largest cotton-producing state in India. Cotton
crop progress, which is in the flowering stage with an excellent plant
sowing in Karnataka is 17.58% higher than in the same period last year. So
height of 4-5 feet.
A high amount of rainfall in the beginning-germination to the early 2021. About 4 to 5% of the crop is lost due to excessive rain and now, if
vegetative stage and sunny & dry weather at the ripening time-maturity sunny weather condition will prevail in September, certainly crop will be of
stage is very useful for a good crop. Sunny weather is needed to have good quality.
Page 79 of 103
There are 12 key producing districts in Karnataka. Out of 12, 5 districts There are 7 key producing districts in Haryana. Out of 7, 3 districts have
that are Chitradurga, Mysuru, Davangere, Gadag and Bijapur, have received received normal rainfall: Bhiwani, Rohtak, and Jind, and 3 districts have
large excess rainfall while Billary, Yadgir, Raichur, Gulbarga, Haveri, and received excess rainfall: Hisar, Kaithal, and Sirsa while one district-
Belgaum have received large excess rainfall. Only Dharwad has received Fatehabad has received large excel rainfall.
normal rain.
The crop is at the maturity stage as mostly it is sown in summer and about
75%-80% area is irrigated. Already, the crop has started hitting the mandis
that will pick up the pace in September.
RAJASTHAN
Rajasthan is the fifth largest cotton-producing state in India. Cotton
sowing in Rajasthan is 13.68% lower than in the same period last year. So PUNJAB
Punjab is the 7th largest cotton-producing state in India. Cotton sowing in
2021. There are 8 key producing districts in Rajasthan. Out of 8, 3 districts
Punjab is 18.42% lower than in the same period last year. So far 0.25
have received large excess rainfall: Ganganagar, Bikaner, and Jodhpur
million hectares are sown against 0.30 million hectares sown in 2021.
while, Nagaur, Hanumangargh, Banswara, and Ajmer have received excess
rainfall. Banswara and Bhilwara have received normal rainfall. There are 7 key producing districts in Punjab. Faridkot and Firozpur have
received large excess rainfall. Muktsar and Bhatinda have received excess
rainfall. Barnala has received normal rainfall while Mansa and Sangrur have
received deficient rains.
HARYANA
The crop is at the maturity stage as mostly it is sown in summer and 75%-
Haryana is the 6th largest cotton-producing state in India. Cotton sowing
80% area is irrigated. Already, the crop has started hitting the mandis that
in Haryana is at par with last year. So far 0.65 million hectares are sown.
will pick up the pace in September.
Graphs: District-Wise-Rainfall in the Key Producing States
Page 80 of 103
Page 81 of 103
Crop Analysis- Maize

Better progress of monsoon over the growing regions of maize was
favourable for the maize crop. Also due to the better price realization in
MADHYA PRADESH
maize, farmers have shifted some areas from soybean and pulses to maize. Madhya Pradesh is the largest maize-producing state in India. Key
Excessive rainfall distribution in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan producing districts of Madhya Pradesh had deficient rainfall in June 2022,
& Karnataka didn’t have much adverse impact on the maize crop, however, leading to delayed sowing. Rainfall progressed well since the first week of
sowing halted in Telangana during July month due to excessive rains which July 2022 and the widespread rains continued till August 2022 in West
led to a slight lag in the maize area. Certainly, harvesting may delay by 15 Madhya Pradesh while east Madhya Pradesh continued to have normal
days or so due to higher moisture content in the Key producing districts of rainfall, which is favourable for the crop. In June 2022, rainfall was deficient
Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Karnataka. The maize sowing window in West Madhya Pradesh (-21%) and East Madhya Pradesh (-13%). In July
is almost closed in the Northwest and Central states and we don’t expect 2022, rainfall was in excess across West Madhya Pradesh (53%) while
any substantial change in the current maize acreage number. Therefore, we normal in East Madhya Pradesh (3%). In Aug 2022, rainfall was in excess
consider 8.15 million hectares as the final acreage for maize crop in this across West Madhya Pradesh (42%) and normal in East Madhya Pradesh
Kharif season. (9%). As per ground reports, the crop progress is good so far which is at a
vegetative/tasselling stage and sunny weather will augur well in September
2022.
Crop & Monsoon Progress- In Key Maize sowing area in Madhya Pradesh is 6.53% higher than the same
period last year. So far 1.61 million hectares are sown against 1.52 million
Producing States hectares sown in 2021. Maize area increased as the farmers have shifted to
Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, and Telangana are maize from soybean and pulses crop.
the largest producers of Kharif Maize.
There are 26 key maize-producing districts in Madhya Pradesh, 18 districts
in West Madhya Pradesh, and 8 districts in East Madhya Pradesh. Out of
these 26 key districts in Madhya Pradesh, 13 districts have received excess
rainfall. Districts are-Betul, Chhindwara, Seoni, Narmadapuram, Khandwa,
KARNATAKA Dewas, Ratlam, Neemach, Sehore, Harda, Burhanpur, Raisen, and
Mandsaur. 10 districts have received normal rainfall. Districts are
Karnataka, which was the largest maize-producing state in India, turned
Khargone, Dhar, Barwani, Jhabua, Narshimapura, Mandla, Dindori,
second largest producing state this year. North Karnataka holds around
Singrauli, Jabalpur, and Anuppur. While, only Guna and Rajgarh districts
46% acreage share while South Karnataka holds 54% share. In June 2022,
have received large excess rainfall.
rainfall was below normal in North Karnataka (-13%) and South Karnataka
(-10%) while in July 2022, rainfall was large excess in North Karnataka
(84%) and South Karnataka (71%). In Aug 2022, rainfall was excess in North
Karnataka (33%), and South Karnataka (49%).
RAJASTHAN
There are 15 key maize-producing districts in Karnataka, 8 districts in South
Karnataka, and 7 districts in North Karnataka. Out of the 15 districts, 9 Rajasthan is the third largest maize-producing state in India. East Rajasthan
districts received large excess rainfall. The districts are Bellary, Davangere, holds 98% acreage share in maize. The key producing districts of Rajasthan
Hassan, Chitradurga, Gadag, Bijapur, Chikballapur, Mysore, and Tumkur. are in the east region, which had received excessive rainfall in the month of
While 4 districts received excess rainfall. The districts are Haveri, Belgaum, July and August. In June 2022, rainfall was normal in East Rajasthan (-12%),
Koppal, Bagalkot, and 2 districts received normal rainfall - Dharwad and in July 2022 rainfall was excess in East Rajasthan (45%), and in Aug 2022
Shimoga. rainfall was excess in East Rajasthan (33%). However, there are very less
instances of water logging in maize fields. The crop health is good and
In Karnataka, maize is sown in 1.41 million hectares area against 1.39 progressing well, crop is at the vegetative to tasselling stage.
million hectares sown in 2021. The maize crop is progressing well in most
of the districts, however, there are crop concerns due to excessive rains. In Rajasthan, maize is sown in 0.944 million hectares area against 0.936
Currently, the maize crop is in tasselling to grain filling stages in Bellary, million hectares sown in 2021, which is 1% higher than the same period
Koppal, Raichur, and Kalaburgi while the crop is in the early vegetative to last year. Rajasthan has 14 key maize-producing districts, out of which 11
the vegetative stage in Haveri, Chikballapur, Shimoga, and Hassan. districts received excess rainfall. The disticts are Udaipur, Banswara,
Rajsmand, Dungarpur, Bundi, Jhalawar, Pratapgarh, Ajmer, Sirohi, Baran,
Page 82 of 103
and Tonk. While 3 districts received normal rainfall. The districts are Amaravati while 7 districts have received excess rainfall. The districts are-
Chittaurgarh, Bhilwara, and Pali. Nasik, Dhule, Satara, Osmanabad, Pune, Beed, and Latur. Sangli is the only
district that received deficient rainfall.
MAHARASHTRA
Maharashtra is the fourth largest maize-producing state in India. Key TELANGANA
producing districts of Maharashtra had deficient rainfall in June, leading to
Telangana is one of the key maize-producing states in India. The key
delayed sowing. Rainfall progressed well since the first week of July 2022
maize-producing districts of Telangana received normal rainfall from the
and the widespread rains continued till August 2022, paving the way for
second half of June and sowing commenced on time. But in July 2022,
the higher area under maize in Maharashtra. In June 2022, rainfall was
rainfall was in large excess across the key producing districts of Telangana,
deficient in Madhya Maharashtra (-40%) and Vidarbha (-39%) while which resulted in crop damage, and sowing activities were also paused for
normal in Marathwada (7%). In July 2022, rainfall was in large excess across some days. Gradually the sowing progressed in August but still, it lags
Madhya Maharashtra (70%), Vidarbha (83%), and Marathwada (106%). In behind last year’s level. The rainfall departures in June 2022 was normal
Aug 2022, rainfall was excess across Madhya Maharashtra (26%), Vidarbha (9%) while in July 2022, it was large excess (145%) and in Aug 2022, rainfall
(31%), and Marathwada (28%). was excess (51%).
Maize sowing in Maharashtra is 0.39% higher than in the same period last Maize sowing in Telangana lags behind by 26.16% from the same period
year. So far 0.88 million hectares are sown against 0.87 million hectares last year. Maize sowing stood at 0.21 million hectares against 0.29 million
sown in 2021. During the first week of August 2022, rainfall was deficient in hectares sown in 2021. Telangana has 20 key maize-producing districts,
most of the key maize-producing districts, while in the second week heavy out of which 6 districts received rainfall in large excess. The districts are -
rainfall occurred and from the third week, the pace of rainfall gradually Mahabubnagar, Nizamabad, Jagtial, Nirmal, Karimnagar, and Jangaon
weakened. After sufficient intervals, rainfall was good for healthy crop while 14 districts received excess rainfall. The districts are Siddipet,
progress. The maize crop stage is in the vegetative stage in most of the Rangareddy, Kamareddy, Nagarkurnool, Vikarabad, Warangal Rural,
states, while in the early sown areas crop is in the cob development stage. Medak, Sangareddy, Mahabubabad, Warangal Urban, B. Kothagudem,
Jogulamba, Wanaparthy, and Khammam.
There are 16 major maize producing districts in Maharashtra. Out of 16, 8
districts have received normal rainfall. The districts are – Jalgaon,
Nandurbar, Jalna, Buldhana, Aurangabad, Ahmadnagar, Solapur, and
Page 83 of 103
Page 84 of 103
Crop Analysis- Paddy

Deficient monsoon rainfall over the key growing regions of paddy resulted Uttar Pradesh in this Kharif season. The paddy crop is in the vegetative
in lower acreages. The earlier expectation was that paddy acreages would stage in most of the districts. The recent rains in some of the districts
gain significantly as the rice prices were lucrative in the current year. Rice provided some relief to the crop.
prices of 1121 Sella white variety gained by 53% y-o-y, while 1121 Steam
variety gained by around 45% y-o-y. However, the foul play of the
monsoon in the north and eastern states affected the paddy sowing. From
the month of June 2022 to date rainfall remain largely deficient across the WEST BENGAL
key producing states. The Kharif paddy sowing window is almost closed in
West Bengal is the second largest paddy-producing state in India. Key
the key producing states and we don’t expect any significant change in the
producing districts of West Bengal had deficient rainfall in June 2022,
current paddy acreage number. Therefore, we consider 36.76 million
leading to delayed sowing. In June & July 2022, rainfall was deficient in
hectares as the final acreage for paddy in this Kharif season.
West Bengal (June -49% & July -46%). While in August the rainfall
condition improved marginally, however, it was not sufficient to bridge the
deficit.
Crop & Monsoon Progress- In Key The paddy sowing area in West Bengal is 13.1% lower than in the same
Producing States period last year. Till 26th Aug, around 3.693 million hectares area is sown
under paddy against 4.25 million hectares sown in 2021. The deficient
monsoon rains in West Bengal have significantly affected the paddy
acreages in West Bengal. The crop is in the vegetative stage, and the
UTTAR PRADESH recent rainfall in some of the districts was favourable for the crop.
Uttar Pradesh is the largest paddy-producing state in India. Uttar Pradesh There are 21 key paddy-producing districts in West Bengal. Out of these 21
holds around 15% share in the total paddy production in India. In June key districts in West Bengal, 10 districts have received deficient rainfall.
2022, rainfall was deficient in East Uttar Pradesh (-51%) and West Uttar These districts are 24 Parganas North, 24 Parganas South, Bankura,
Pradesh (-57%) while in July 2022, rainfall was deficient in East Uttar Birbhum, Dakshin Dinajpur, Uttar Dinajpur, Howrah, Malda, Nadia, and
Pradesh (-47%) and West Uttar Pradesh (-37%). In Aug 2022, rainfall was Bardaman, these 10 districts account for 44% of acreage share in West
deficient in East Uttar Pradesh (-37%) and West Uttar Pradesh (-46%). Bengal. While 10 districts have received normal rainfall and these districts
account for 41% of paddy acreage share in West Bengal. The districts are
There are 47 key paddy-producing districts in Uttar Pradesh. Out of the 47 Alipurduar, Kochbihar, Darjeeling, Hooghly, Jalpaiguri, Jhargram,
districts, 32 districts received deficient rainfall while 11 districts received Kalimpong, Medinipur East & West, and Purulia. Meanwhile, Murshidabad
large deficient rainfall and 4 received normal rainfall. The districts with is the only district which received large deficient rainfall and it accounts for
deficient rainfall are Azamgarh, Barabanki, Siddharth Nagar, Maharajganj, 5% of the paddy acreage in West Bengal.
Sitapur, Prayagraj, Bareilly, Gazipur, Gorakhpur, Hardoi, Pilhibhit, Deoria,
Ambedkarnagar, Amethi, Balrampur, Basti, Ayodhya, Unnao, Rae Bareli,
Sultanpur, Bulandshahar, Aligarh, Mirzapur, Fatehpur, Badaun, Shravasti,
Mainpuri, Sharanpur, Lucknow, Bijnor, Banda, and Auraiya. The districts
with large deficient rainfall are Shahjahanpur, Bahraich, Jaunpur, Rampur,
CHHATTISGARH
Gonda, Kushinagar, Ballia, Chandauli, Moradabad, Sant Kabir Nagar, and Chhattisgarh is the third largest paddy-producing state and holds a 9%
Mau. The districts with normal rainfall are Kheri, Pratapgarh, Etawah, and acreage share in India. In June 2022, rainfall was deficient in Chhattisgarh (-
Varanasi. 27%), however, rainfall conditions improved and turned normal in July
2022 and in Aug 2022 rainfall was excess in Chhattisgarh (25%). The crop
In Uttar Pradesh, paddy is sown in 5.76 million hectares area against 6.03
health is normal and progressing well, the crop is at the tillering to panicle
million hectares sown in 2021, which is 4.38% lower than the same period
initiation stage.
last year. We consider 5.76 million hectares as the final paddy acreage for
Page 85 of 103
In Chhattisgarh, paddy is sown in 3.32 million hectares area as of Aug 26th in August (-60%). Overall from June to August 2022, the state received
against 3.75 million hectares sown in 2021, which is 11.41% lower than the 317.2 mm of rainfall against the normal of 362.1 mm, with a departure of -
same period last year. Chhattisgarh has 27 key paddy-producing districts, 12% from the LPA. The crop health is mostly normal and the crop is in the
out of which 11 districts received normal rainfall and these districts hold heading stage across the state.
37% of paddy acreage. The districts are Mahasamund, Raigarh, Kanker,
The paddy sowing area in Punjab is 2.20% higher than in the same period
Raipur, Durg, Korba, Kondagaon, Balarampur, Sukma, Dantewara, and
last year. Till 26th Aug, around 3.13 million hectares area are sown under
Narayanpur. While 10 districts received excess rainfall and these districts
paddy against 3.07 million hectares sown in 2021. There are 22 key paddy-
hold 46% of paddy acreage. The districts are Rajnandgaon, Janjgir-
producing districts in Punjab. Out of 22, 10 districts have received
Champa, Baloda Bazar, Bilaspur, Balod, Dhamtari, Gariyaband, Bastar,
deficient rainfall, these districts hold 47% of the paddy acreage share.
Mungeli, and Kabirdham. Meanwhile, 5 districts that hold 16% paddy
These districts are Sangrur, Patiala, Moga, Amritsar, Jalandhar, Fazilka,
acreage share in Chhattisgarh received deficient rainfall and these districts
Mansa, Hoshiarpur, Nawanshahar, and Rupnagar. While 7 districts have
are Jashpur, Bemetara, Surguja, Surajpur, and Korea.
received normal rainfall, these districts hold 28% of the paddy acreage
share. These districts are Ludhiana, Tarn Tarn, Gurdaspur, Barnala,
Fatehgarh Sahib, SAS Nagar and Pathankot. Meanwhile, 3 districts that
ODISHA hold 15% acreage share received excess rainfall, the districts are Muktsar,
Bhatinda, and Kapurthala. Firozpur and Faridkot districts received large
Odisha is the fourth largest paddy-producing state in India. The key excess rainfall and they hold a 9% acreage share.
producing districts of Odisha had deficient rainfall in June, leading to a
slight delay in sowing. However, from July to August rainfall remained
normal. In June 2022, rainfall was deficient in Odisha (-37%), however,
rainfall conditions improved and turned normal in July 2022, and in Aug MADHYA PRADESH
2022 rainfall was excess in Odisha (32%). The crop health is normal and
Madhya Pradesh is the seventh largest paddy-producing state in India. The
progressing well, the crop is at the stem elongation to panicle initiation
paddy acreages in Madhya Pradesh gained at a CAGR of 1% in the last 20
stage.
years while rice production increased at a CAGR of 4.5% due to the
The paddy sowing area in Odisha is 17.41% lower than the same period planting of high-yielding paddy varieties which improved the yield
last year. Till 26th Aug, around 2.90 million hectares area is sown under considerably. The key producing districts of Madhya Pradesh had deficient
paddy against 3.51 million hectares sown in 2021. There are 30 key paddy- rainfall in June 2022, resulting in a sluggish sowing pace. Rainfall
producing districts in Odisha. Out of 30, 23 districts have received normal progressed well since the first week of July 2022 and the widespread rains
rainfall, these districts hold 86% of the paddy acreage share. These districts continued till August 2022 in West Madhya Pradesh while east Madhya
are Mayurbhanj, Ganjam, Baragarh, Baleshwar, Kalahandi, Bhadrak, Pradesh continued to have normal rainfall, which is favorable for the crop.
Kendujhar, Kendrapara, Jajapur, Balangir, Cuttack, Sundargarh,
The paddy sowing area in Madhya Pradesh is 31.70% higher than in the
Nabarangpur, Subarnapur, Malkangiri, Puri, Khordha, Jagatsinghapur,
same period last year. Till 26th Aug, around 3.17 million hectares area are
Sambalpur, Anugul, Nuapara, Gajapathi, and Jharsuguda. While 7 districts
sown under paddy against 2.41 million hectares sown in 2021. There are 27
have received excess rainfall, these districts hold 14% of paddy acreage
key paddy-producing districts in Madhya Pradesh. Out of 27, 16 districts
share. These districts are Nayagarh, Koraput, Dhenkanal, Boudh, Rayagada,
have received normal rainfall, these districts hold 63% of the paddy
Deogarh, and Kandhamal.
acreage share. These districts are Balaghat, Satna, Mandla, Jabalpur, Katni,
Shahdol, Anuppur, Dindori, Damoh, Panna, Singrauli, Gwalior, Umaria,
Narshimapura, Shivpuri and Bhind. While 8 districts have received excess
BIHAR rainfall, these districts hold 23% of the paddy acreage share. These districts
are Seoni, Raisen, Narmadapuram, Betul, Sheopur, Sehore, Chhindwara and
Bihar is the fifth largest paddy-producing state in India. The key producing Vidisha. Meanwhile, 3 districts that hold 11% acreage share received
districts of Bihar had normal rainfall in June while in July and August deficient rainfall, the districts are Rewa, Sidhi and Datia.
rainfall distribution was weak which lead to deficient rainfall in both July (-
60%) and August (-37%). The crop health is mostly normal and the crop is
at the tillering stage in most of the districts.
HARYANA
The paddy sowing area in Bihar is 8.33% lower than in the same period last
year. Till 26th Aug, around 2.99 million hectares area is sown under paddy Haryana is one of the key paddy-producing states in India. The crop is in
against 3.26 million hectares sown in 2021. There are 38 key paddy- the heading stage across the state.
producing districts in Bihar. Out of 38, 34 districts have received deficient
The paddy sowing area in Haryana is 3.23% lower than in the same period
rainfall, these districts hold 92% of paddy acreage share. These districts are
last year. Till 26th Aug, around 1.32 million hectares area are sown under
Rohtas, Aurangabad, Madubani, Bhabua, Pashchim Champaran, Purnia,
paddy against 1.36 million hectares sown in 2021. There are 21 key paddy-
Banka, Nalanda, Bhojpur, Purbi Champaran, Muzaffarpur, Buxar, Sitamarhi,
producing districts in Haryana. Out of 21, 11 districts have received normal
Gaya, Madhepura, Katihar, Nawada, Saran, Samastipur, Patna, Saharsa,
rainfall, these districts hold 48% of the paddy acreage share. The districts
Siwan, Darbhanga, Lakhisarai, Vaishali, Jamui, Gopalganj, Jehanabad,
are Karnal, Jind, Kurukshetra, Panipat, Rohtak,
Munger, Sheikhpura, Arwal, Sheohar, Khagaria, and Begusarai.
Jhajjar, Palwal, Bhiwani, Panchkula, Charkhi Dadri, and Nuh. While 6
districts received deficient rainfall, these districts hold 20% of the paddy
acreage share. The districts are Sonipat, Ambala, Yamunanagar, and
PUNJAB Faridabad. Excess rainfall was received in 3 districts such as Kaithal, Sirsa,
Punjab is the sixth largest paddy-producing state in India. The key and Hisar which account for 23% of the paddy acreage share. Fatehabad
producing districts of Punjab received deficient rainfall in June (-28%) while holds an 8% acreage share and it received large excess rainfall.
it received excess rainfall in July (36%) and received largely deficient rainfall
Page 86 of 103
Page 87 of 103
Page 88 of 103
Page 89 of 103
Crop Analysis- Soybean

Better progress of monsoon over the growing regions of soybean was acreage number. Therefore, 12.04 million hectares are the final acreages
favourable for the soybean crop area but farmers have shifted a part of for the crop for this Kharif season.
soybean areas to corn and cotton due to a significant surge in the prices of
corn and cotton. Excessive rainfall distribution in Madhya Pradesh,
Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Telangana & Karnataka has resulted in some area
loss in July but that will be compensated by better yield expectations and Crop & Monsoon Progress- In Key
re-planting along with higher area in Maharashtra & Rajasthan. Certainly, Producing States
harvesting may delay by a week or two due to higher moisture in the soil
in the Key producing districts of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh in July
and the first half of August 2022. The soybean sowing window is almost
closed and we don’t expect any substantial change in the current soybean
Page 90 of 103
Weather in MP and Maharashtra is sunny these days, giving sufficient time hectares sown in 2021. The area is down as farmers have shifted to other
to the fields to absorb the excess moisture, and that in turn is a healthy remunerative crops like corn and paddy.
sign for soybean crop growth. Since August 15, rainfall is below average.
There are 22 key producing districts in Madhya Pradesh. Out of these 22
Therefore, the possibility of better yield and production can’t be ruled out.
key districts in Madhya Pradesh, 16 districts have received excess rainfall.
Unless there will be non-stop rains for 5-7 days occurs, we don’t expect
These districts are Betul, Chhindwara, Dewas, Guna, Neemuch, Raisen,
any threat to a standing crop of soybean.
Sehore, Shajapur, Vidisha, Harda, Narmadapuram, Khandwa, Mandsaur,
Ratlam, Sagar, and Seoni.
While, Indore, Narsingpur, and Dhar districts have received normal rainfall.
MAHARASHTRA Bhopal, Rajgargh, and Guna districts have received normal rainfall.
Maharashtra is the largest soybean-producing state in India. Key producing
districts of Maharashtra had deficient rainfall in June, leading to delayed
sowing. Rainfall progressed well since mid-July 2022 and the widespread
rains continued till mid-August 2022, paving the way for the higher area
RAJASTHAN
under soybean in Maharashtra. Rajasthan is the third largest soybean-producing state in India. Key
producing districts of Rajasthan are in the west region, which had fairly
Soybean sowing in Maharashtra is 6.16% higher than the same period last
widespread rainfall or excessive rainfall from 22 June 2022 to the end of
August 2022. West Rajasthan is the Chambal basin, the soil in this region is
sown in 2021.
sandy to silty, and owing to this, water retention in topsoil is lower and
During the second half of August 2022, the weather was mostly sunny drains very quickly. Therefore, large to large excess rainfall normally has no
which was good for healthy crop progress that is in the vegetative stage. negative impact on the standing crop. The crop is at the vegetative to
Kolhapur, Sangli, and Satara, which account for about 1.6-1.7 million flowering stage. Kota, Bundi, and Baran are part of west Rajasthan.
hectares of area in Madhya Maharashtra, have normal rainfall during the
The area under soybean in Rajasthan is 8.35% higher than in the same
whole season and the crop is progressing well in this belt. Nagpur,
Nanded, and Wardha had large excessive rainfall but the situation started
hectares sown in 2021.
improving as these regions’ weather turned sunny from August’s second
half. Rajasthan state has 5 key soybean-producing districts out of which
Jhalawar and Kota have received large excess rainfall. While, Bundi, Baran,
There are 16 key producing districts in Maharashtra. Out of 16, 8 districts
and Chittaurgarh have received excess rainfall.
have received normal rainfall. These districts are Akola, Amravati, Buldhana,
Washim, Hingoli, Solapur, Parbani, and Kolhapur. While 7 districts have
received excess rainfall. These districts are Yavatmal, Latur, Satara,
Chandrapur, Nanded, Nagpur, and Wardha. Only Sangli received deficient KARNATAKA
rain.
The area under soybean in Karnataka is 14.03% higher than the same
hectares sown in 2021.
MADHYA PRADESH
There are four key soybean-producing districts in Karnataka. Out of 4, 3
Madhya Pradesh is the second largest soybean-producing state in India. districts have received excess rainfall and 1 has received normal rainfall.
Key producing districts of Madhya Pradesh had deficient rainfall in June
2022, leading to delayed sowing. Rainfall progressed well since the first
week of July 2022 and the widespread rains continued till August 2022 in
west Madhya Pradesh, which is a key producing belt while east Madhya TELANGANA
Pradesh continued to have normal rainfall, which is a good sign not only
The area under soybean in Telangana is 22.95% higher than the same
for soybean but also other crops like corn.
period last year. So far 017 million hectares are sown against 014 million
Crop progress is good so far which is at a vegetative stage, and the hectares sown in 2021. Adilabad, Nizamabad, and Karimnagar are the key
continuation of sunny weather in September 2022 will be good for the soybean-producing districts in Telangana state and all have received large
crop. excess rainfall.
The area under soybean in Madhya Pradesh is 8.98% lower than the same
Page 91 of 103
Page 92 of 103
Appendix
AGMA - AgMarkNet comes under the Directorate of Marketing & Inspection (DMI), Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare.
APEDA - Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority comes under the Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Government of India.
APMC - An Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC) is a marketing board established by state governments in India to ensure farmers are safeguarded from exploitation by large retailers, as well as ensuring the farm to retail price spread does not
reach excessively high levels. APMCs are regulated by states through their adoption of an Agriculture Produce Marketing Regulation (APMR) Act
BMD - Bursa Malaysia Derivates is a subsidiary of Bursa Malaysia Berhad established in 1993. It provides, operates, and maintains equity, interest rates, bonds, agricultural commodities (crude palm oil and palm kernel), metal commodity (gold and tin) futures, and
options market trading and settlement services. Their products are available on the CME Globex electronic trading platform for greater distribution of the Malaysian derivatives offerings to the global market.
CAGR - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is the rate of return (RoR) that would be required for an investment to grow from its beginning balance to its ending balance, assuming the profits were reinvested at the end of each period of the investment’s life
span.
Commodity exchange - A commodities exchange is an exchange, or market, where various commodities are traded. Most commodity markets around the world trade in agricultural products and other raw materials (like wheat, barley, sugar, maize, cotton, cocoa,
coffee, milk products, pork bellies, oil, and metals). Trading includes various types of derivatives contracts based on these commodities, such as forwards, futures and options, as well as spot trades (for immediate delivery).
Contract Specification
CBOT SOYBEAN FUTURES
CONTRACT UNIT 5,000 bushels
PRICE QUOTATION U.S. cents per bushel
CME Globex:
Sunday – Friday, 7:00 p.m. – 7:45 a.m. CT and
Monday – Friday, 8:30 a.m. – 1:20 p.m. CT

TRADING HOURS
TAS: Sunday - Friday 7:00 p.m. - 7:45 a.m. and Monday - Friday 8:30 a.m. - 1:15 p.m. CT
CME ClearPort:
Sunday 5:00 p.m. - Friday 5:45 p.m. CT with no reporting Monday - Thursday from 5:45 p.m. – 6:00 p.m. CT
1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel = $12.50

MINIMUM PRICE FLUCTUATION
TAS: Zero or +/- 4 ticks in the minimum tick increment of the outright
CME Globex: ZS
CME ClearPort: S
PRODUCT CODE
Clearing: S
TAS: SBT
LISTED CONTRACTS 15 monthly contracts of Jan, Mar, May, Aug, Sep and 8 monthly contracts of Jul and Nov listed annually after the termination of trading in the November contract of the current year.
SETTLEMENT METHOD Deliverable
TERMINATION OF TRADING Trading terminates on the business day prior to the 15th day of the contract month.
LAST DELIVERY DATE Second business day following the last trading day of the delivery month.
GRADE AND QUALITY #2 Yellow at contract price, #1 Yellow at a 6 cent/bushel premium, #3 Yellow at a 6 cent/bushel discount
CBOT SOYBEAN OIL FUTURES
CONTRACT UNIT 60,000 pounds
PRICE QUOTATION U.S. cents per pound
TRADING HOURS CME Globex:
CME ClearPort:
MINIMUM PRICE FLUCTUATION 1/100 of one cent (0.0001) per pound = $6.00
PRODUCT CODE CME Globex: ZL
CME ClearPort: 07
Clearing: 07
TAS: ZLT
LISTED CONTRACTS 15 monthly contracts of Jan, Mar, May, Aug, Sep and 12 monthly contracts of Jul, Oct, Dec listed annually after the termination of trading in the December contract of the current year
LAST DELIVERY DATE Seventh business day following the last trading day of the delivery month.
GRADE AND QUALITY Crude soybean oil meeting exchange-approved grades and standards-see exchange Rules and Regulations for exact specifications.
CBOT SOYBEAN MEAL FUTURES
CONTRACT UNIT 100 short tons (~ 91 metric tons)
PRICE QUOTATION
U.S. dollars and cents per short ton
CME ClearPort:
MINIMUM PRICE FLUCTUATION 0.10 per short ton = $10.00
Page 93 of 103
PRODUCT CODE CME Globex: ZM
CME ClearPort: 06
Clearing: 06
TAS: ZMT
LISTED CONTRACTS 15 monthly contracts of Jan, Mar, May, Aug, Sep and 12 monthly contracts of Jul, Oct, Dec listed annually after the termination of trading in the December contract of the current year
GRADE AND QUALITY Through December 2018, 48% Protein Soybean Meal, meeting the requirements listed in the CBOT Rules and Regulations. As of January 2019, 47.5% Protein Soybean Meal, meeting the requirements listed in the CBOT
Rules and Regulations.
BMD CRUDE PALM OIL FUTURES (FCPO)
Contract Code FCPO
Underlying Instrument Crude Palm Oil
Contract Size 25 Metric Tons (MT)
Contract Months Spot month and the next 11 succeeding months, and thereafter, alternate months up to 36 months ahead
Trading Hours Monday to Friday (Malaysia time)
Morning trading session: 10.30 a.m. to 12.30 p.m.
Afternoon trading Session: 2.30 p.m. to 6.00 p.m
Monday to Thursday (Malaysia time)
After-hours (T+1) trading session: 9.00 p.m. to 11.30 p.m
Pricing Unit Malaysian Ringgit (MYR)
Price Limits 1. With the exception of trades in the current delivery month, trades for future delivery of Crude Palm Oil in any month, must not be made, during any 1 Business Day, at prices varying more than 10% above or below the
settlement prices of the preceding Business Day (“the 10% Limit”) except as provided below:
(a) When the 10% Limit is triggered (except for the current month), the Exchange will announce a 10-minute cooling off period (“the Cooling Off Period”) for Contracts of all contract months (except the current delivery
month) during which trading may only take place within the 10% Limit.
(b) Following the Cooling Off Period, Contracts of all contract months will be specified as reserved for a period of 5 minutes, after which the price limit will be expanded to 15%. The prices traded for Contracts of all
contract months (except the current month) must then not vary more than 15% above or below the settlement prices of the preceding Business Day (“the 15% Limit”).
(c) If the 10% Limit is triggered less than 30 minutes before the end of the first trading session, the 10% Limit will apply to Contracts of all contract months (except the current month) for the rest of the first trading
session and the 15% Limit will apply to Contracts of all contract months (except the current month) during the second trading session.
(d) If the 10% Limit is triggered less than 30 minutes before the end of the second trading session, the 10% Limit will apply to Contracts of all contract months (except the current month) for the rest of the Business Day.
2. For the purposes of paragraph 1(a), the 10% Limit will be considered triggered in the manner the Exchange may prescribe
* When at least 3 non-spot month contracts are trading at the 10% Limit, the Exchange shall announce a 10-minute cooling off period.
Minimum Price Fluctuation MYR 1.00 / MT
Final Settlement Physical Delivery
*Effective 1st April 2021, all FCPO physical delivery must be Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) certified.
ICE COTTON FUTURES
Exchange Symbol CT
Contract Cotton #2
Exchange ICE/US
Tick Size 0.01 cents per pound ($5.00 per contract)
Margin/Maintenance $3,850/3,500
Daily Limit 3 - 7 cents ($1,500 - $3,500 per contract)
Contract Size 50,000 pounds (approximately 100 bales)
Months Mar, May, Jul, Oct, Dec (H, K, N, V, Z)
Trading Hours 8:00p.m. - 1:20p.m. (Settles 1:15p.m.) CST
Value of One Futures Unit $500
Value of One Options Unit $500
Last Trading Day Seventeen business days from end of spot month
Final Settlement Physical Delivery
MCX COTTON FUTURES
Symbol CPO
Description CPOMMMYY
Contract Listing Contracts are available as per the Contract Launch Calendar.
Contract Start Day 1st day of contract launch month. If 1st day is a holiday then the following working day.
Last Trading Day Last calendar day of the contract expiry month. If last calendar day is a holiday then the preceding working day.
Trading Period Mondays through Fridays
Trading Session Monday to Friday: 9.00 am to 09.00 pm
Trading Unit 10 MT
Quotation/Base Value Rs./10 Kg
Price Quote Ex- Kandla, exclusive of Sales tax/ GST
Maximum Order Size 400 MT
Tick Size (Minimum Price Movement) 10 paise
Delivery Unit 10 MT
Delivery Centre(s) Within Kandla municipal limits
Page 94 of 103
NCDEX SOYBEAN FUTURES
Name of commodity Soy Bean
Ticker symbol SYBEANIDR
Trading System NCDEX Trading System
Basis Ex-Warehouse Indore exclusive of GST
Unit of trading 5 MT
Delivery unit 5 MT
Quotation/base value Rs per quintal
Tick size Re. 1.00
Quality specification Moisture: 9% basis, 11% Maximum
Foreign Matter: 2 % basis, 5% Maximum
Damaged: 2 % basis, 10% Maximum
Green Seed : 7 %
Quantity variation +/- 2%
Delivery center Indore (within a radius of 50 km from the municipal limits)
Additional delivery center Akola, Latur (Maharashtra); Mandsaur (MP) and Kota (Rajasthan)
Location Premium/Discount as notified by the Exchange from time to time.
Trading hours As notified by the Exchange from time to time, currently:
Mondays through Fridays: 9:00 AM to 05:00 PM
The Exchange may vary the above timing with due notice
NCDEX REFINED SOY OIL FUTURES
Name of commodity Refined Soy Oil
Ticker symbol SYOREF

Trading system NCDEX Trading System
Basis Ex-tank, Indore exclusive of GST
Delivery unit 5 MT
Quotation/base value Rs. per 10 Kg
Tick size 10 Paise
Quality specification Refined Soy Oil with the following specifications:
Moisture & insoluble impurities, % Max: 0.10
Color, Lovibond Y+5R, 51/4” cell Max: 12 Unit
Refractive Index at 40C: 1.4650-1.4710
Specific Gravity at 30C 25/25: 0.917-0.921
Saponification Value: 189-195
Iodine Value (Wijs): 120-141
Unsaponifiable matter, % by mass, Max: 1.5
FFA, % Max: 0.25
Flash point, Pensky Martin Method, C, Min: 250
Acid Value – Not more than 0.50
Phosphorous – Not more than 0.02
Hexane – Not more than 5 ppm
Test for argemone oil shall be negative.
It shall be clear, free from rancidity, adulterants, sediments, suspended and any other foreign matter, separated water, added colouring and flavouring substances and mineral oil
Delivery centre Indore (within a radius of 50 km from the municipal limits)
Mondays through Fridays: 9.00 A.M. to 09.00 P.M.
On the expiry date, contracts expiring on that day will not be available for trading after 5 P.M.
The Exchange may vary above timing with due notice
NCDEX HIPRO SOYBEAN MEAL
Name of commodity Hipro Soybean Meal
Ticker symbol SBMEALIDR
Basis Ex-warehouse Indore, exclusive of GST
Delivery unit 10 MT
Quotation/base value Rs. per MT
Tick size Rs. 10 per MT
Quality specification Moisture :11% Max
Protein: 50% Min
Oil: 1.5% Max
Fiber: 4% Max
Sand/Silica: 1% Max
Urease (by EEC method): Min 0.05 mgN/g/Min, Max 0.30 mgN/g/Min Units (By EEC Method)
Indian solvent extracted toasted with pure yellow Soybean meal.
No Red / Black / Over toasted / Sweepage / Admixtured /
Contaminated or water damaged Soybean Meal will be accepted.
Free from pesticide (especially organochlorine compound group e.g. DDT, dieldrin including aldrin and heptachlor)
Free from poisonous seeds and/or foreign seeds, free from castorseeds and/or husk, free from lumps, free from weevils, free from urea and/or other chemical substance.
Delivery centre Indore (within a radius of 50 km from the municipal limits)
Page 95 of 103
Additional Delivery Centre Latur (within a radius of 50 km from the municipal limits)
Location Premium/Discount as notified by the Exchange from time to time.
Mondays through Fridays: 9:00 AM to 05:00 PM
The Exchange may vary the above timing with due notice
NCDEX MUSTARD SEED
Name of commodity Rapeseed-Mustard seed
Ticker symbol RMSEED
Basis Ex-warehouse Jaipur, exclusive of GST
Delivery unit 10 MT
Quotation/base value Rs. per Quintal
Tick size Re. 1/- per Quintal
Moisture content
Oil Content (at 5% moisture content level):
FFA%
Quality Specification
Foreign Matter
Damaged or Shriveled or discolored seeds
Insect damaged matter
Delivery centre Jaipur (up to the radius of 50 km from the municipal limits)
Alwar (Rajasthan), Kota (Rajasthan), Sri Ganganagar (Rajasthan), Bikaner (Rajasthan), Jodhpur (Rajasthan) and Agra (Uttar Pradesh)(At all centers, up to the radius of 50 km from the municipal limits) (Premium/discount for all
Additional delivery centres
centres will be announced at the time of launching a contract)
As notified by the Exchange from time to time, currently:- Mondays through Fridays: 09:00 a. m. to 05:00p.m.
Trading hours
The Exchange may vary the above timing with due notice.
CBOT CORN FUTURES
CME Globex:

TRADING HOURS
CME ClearPort:
1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel = $12.50

MINIMUM PRICE FLUCTUATION
CME Globex: ZC
CME ClearPort: C
PRODUCT CODE
Clearing: C
TAS: ZCT
LISTED CONTRACTS 9 monthly contracts of Mar, May, Sep and 8 monthly contracts of Jul and Dec listed annually after the termination of trading in the December contract of the current year.
Through December 2018: #2 Yellow at contract Price, #1 Yellow at a 1.5 cent/bushel premium, #3 Yellow at a 1.5 cent/bushel discount. As of March 2019: #2 Yellow at contract Price, #1 Yellow at a 1.5 cent/bushel premium,
GRADE AND QUALITY
#3 Yellow at a discount between 2 and 4 cents/bushel depending on broken corn and foreign material and damage grade factors.
CBOT Wheat Futures
Sunday – Friday: 7:00 p.m. – 7:45 a.m. CT and
Monday – Friday: 8:30 a.m. – 1:20 p.m. CT
TAS: Sunday - Friday 7:00 p.m. - 7:45 a.m. and ?
Monday - Friday 8:30 a.m. - 1:15 p.m. CT
CME ClearPort:
MINIMUM PRICE FLUCTUATION 1/4 of one cent (0.0025) per bushel = $12.50
PRODUCT CODE CME Globex: ZW
CME ClearPort: W
Clearing: W
Page 96 of 103
TAS: ZWT
LISTED CONTRACTS 15 monthly contracts of Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Dec listed annually following the termination of trading in the July contract of the current year.
GRADE AND QUALITY #2 Soft Red Winter at contract price, #1 Soft Red Winter at a 3 cent premium, other deliverable grades listed in Rule 14104.
CBOT Rough Rice Futures
CONTRACT UNIT 2,000 hundredweights (cwt) (~ 91 Metric Tons)
PRICE QUOTATION U.S. dollars and cents per cwt.
Monday - Friday: 8:30 a.m. - 1:20 p.m. CT
Pre-Open: Monday - Friday: 8:00 a.m. - 8:30 a.m. CT
CME ClearPort:
MINIMUM PRICE FLUCTUATION 1/2 cent per cwt. (0.005) = $10.00
PRODUCT CODE CME Globex: ZR
CME ClearPort: 14
Clearing: 14
LISTED CONTRACTS Monthly contracts (Jan, Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Nov) listed for 7 months
TERMINATION OF TRADING Trading terminates on the business day prior to the 15th calendar day of the contract month.
LAST DELIVERY DATE Seventh business day following the last trading day of the month.
GRADE AND QUALITY U.S. No. 2 or better long grain rough rice with a total milling yield of not less than 65% including head rice of not less than 48%. Premiums and discounts are provided for each percent of head rice over or below 55%, and for
each percent of broken rice over or below 15%. No heat-damaged kernels are permitted in a 500-gram sample and no stained kernels are permitted in a 500-gram sample. A maximum of 75 lightly discolored kernels are
permitted in a 500-gram sample.
NCDEX Maize Futures
Name of Commodity Maize - Feed/Industrial Grade
Ticker symbol MAIZE
Basis Ex-warehouse Gulabbagh exclusive of GST (From April to September)

Ex-warehouse Chhindwara exclusive of GST (From October to March)
Delivery unit 10 MT
Quotation/base value Rs/Quintal
Tick size Rs. 1.00
Quantity variation At the time of

Inbound: +/-3.5%
Outbound +/- 5%
Delivery center Gulabbagh (From April to September); Chhindwara (From October to March)
Additional Delivery center Nizamabad and Sangli
Delivery Logic Compulsory Delivery
Hours of trading As notified by the Exchange from time to time, currently: - Mondays through Fridays: 09:00 AM to 05:00 PM. The Exchange may vary the above timing with due notice.
Due date/Expiry date Expiry date of the contract:

20th day of the delivery month. If 20th happens to be a holiday, a Saturday or a Sunday then the due date shall be the immediately preceding trading day of the Exchange, which is other than a Saturday. The settlement of
contract would be by a staggered system of Pay-in and Pay-out including the Last Pay- in and Pay-out which would be the Final Settlement of the contract.
Daily Price Limit (DPL) Daily price limit is (+/-) 4%. Once the 4% limit is reached, then after a period of 15 minutes this limit shall be increased further by 2%.
The trading shall be permitted during the 15 minutes period within the 4% limit. After the DPL is enhanced, trades shall be permitted throughout the day within the enhanced total DPL of 6%.
The DPL on the launch (first) day of new contract shall be as per the circular no. NCDEX/TRADING-010/2021 dated March 22, 2021.
Quality Specifications Count Up to 400 grains per 100 grams
Foreign matter - 2% (Max)
Moisture 14% (Max)
Fungus - 1% (Max)
Broken, Damaged, slightly damaged, Discolored, Immature kernels and Weeviled grains - 6% max. Out of this weeviled grains will be 0.5% max
NCDEX Wheat Futures
Name of Commodity Wheat
Ticker symbol WHEATFAQ
Basis Ex- Warehouse Kota exclusive of GST
Delivery unit 10 MT
Tick size Rs. 1.00
Quantity variation + / - 5%
Delivery center Kota (within 50 Km radius from the municipal limits)
Page 97 of 103
Additional Delivery center Rajkot (Gujarat), Sri Ganganagar (Rajasthan), Indore (M.P.) and Agra (U.P.) (within 50 Km radius from the municipal limits) with location – wise premium/discount for all centers will be announced by the Exchange prior to
launch of the contract.

20thday of the delivery month. If 20thhappens to be a holiday, a Saturday or a Sunday then the due date shall be the immediately preceding trading day of the Exchange, which is other than a Saturday. The settlement of
Daily Price Limit (DPL) Daily price limit is (+/-) 3%. Once the 3% limit is reached, then after a period of 15 minutes this limit shall be increased further by 1%. The trading shall be permitted during the 15 minutes period within the 3% limit.
After the DPL is enhanced, trades shall be permitted throughout the day within the enhanced total DPL of 4%. The DPL on the launch (first) day of new contract shall be as per the circular no. NCDEX/RISK-034/2016/209 dated
September 08, 2016.
Quality Specifications Damaged Kernel (Other than infestation damaged) - 2% (Max)
Infestation damaged Kernel - 2% (Max)
Foreign Matter (Organic/Inorganic) - 1% (Max)
Other edible grains - 2% (Max)
Shrunken / Shriveled / Broken grains (not damaged) - 5% (Max)
Moisture 11% (Max)
Test Weight - 76 Kg/hl (Min)
Grain Size with diameter less than 3 mm - 8% (Max)
NCDEX Chana Futures
Name of Commodity Desi Unprocessed Whole Raw Chana (Not for Direct Human Consumption)
Ticker symbol CHANA
Basis Ex-warehouse Bikaner exclusive of GST
Delivery unit 10 MT
Tick size Rs. 1.00
Delivery center Bikaner
Additional Delivery center Akola, Jaipur and Indore
Deliverable Varieties Only Desi Chana (Unprocessed Whole Raw Chana) will be accepted at locations of Bikaner, Jaipur, Indore and Akola. Kantawalla Chana will be treated as varietal admixture.

20th day of the delivery month. If 20th happens to be a holiday, a Saturday or a Sunday then the due date shall be the immediately preceding trading day of the Exchange, which is other than a Saturday. The settlement of
Daily Price Limit (DPL) Daily price limit is (+/-) 3%. Once the 3% limit is reached, then after a period of 15 minutes this limit shall be increased further by 1%. The trading shall be permitted during the 15 minutes period within the 3% limit. After the
DPL is enhanced, trades shall be permitted throughout the day within the enhanced total DPL of 4%.
Quality Specifications Desi Unprocessed Whole Raw Chana (Not for direct human consumption) shall be sound, clean and shall be free from Mathara, Khesari and live infestation
Foreign matter (other than varietal admixture) - 1% (Max)
Moisture 11% (Max)
Green (Cotyledon color), Immature, Shrunken, Shriveled Seeds - 4% (Max)
Khesari 0.1% max
Broken, Splits; - 3% max
Damaged 4% max
Weevilled 1% max
White egg spot 1% max
Varietal admixture 4% Max
NCDEX Jeera Futures
Name of Commodity Jeera
Ticker symbol JEERAUNJHA
Basis Ex-warehouse Unjha exclusive of GST
Delivery unit 3 MT
Tick size Rs. 5.00
Delivery center Unjha (up to the radius of 60 Kms from the muncipal limits)
Additional Delivery center Jodhpur (up to the radius of 60 Kms from the muncipal limits) with location wise premium/discount as announced by the Exchange prior to launch of contract
Jeera of Indian Origin with the following specifications.

Jeera to be necessarily machine cleaned
Quality Specifications
Foreign matter 1% (Max)
Page 98 of 103
Moisture 8% Basis, 9.5% Maximum
Seeds with Stalks 8.0% Max
Damaged, Discolored, Shrivelled and Immature seeds 4.5% Max
Insect damaged matter should not be more than 0.5%
Total Weight (on count basis) Maximum 300 seeds per gram
NCDEX Coriander Futures
Name of Commodity Coriander
Ticker symbol DHANIYA
Basis Badami Whole Dhaniya Ex-warehouse Gondal exclusive of GST
Delivery unit 5 MT
Tick size Rs. 2.00
Delivery center Gondal (up to radius of 60 Kms from the muncipal limits)
Additional Delivery center Kota and Ramgunjmandi (up to radius of 60 Kms from the muncipal limits) Location Premium/discount as notified by the Exchange from time to time
Coriander of Indian Origin with the following specifications.

Coriander to be necessarily machine cleaned
Moisture- Basis 8% and acceptable upto 9% (Max) with moisture adjusted weight (MAW) of 1.1
Foreign Matter- Max 0.90%
Damaged & Discolored Seeds- Max 1.90%

Quality Specifications
Shrivelled Seeds- Basis 1% Acceptable upto 1.5% with 1.1 discount
Weevil Seeds- Max 0.5%
Coriander splits (Dal)- Basis 5% and acceptable upto 9.50% with 1.05 discount
Live infestation- Not allowed
NCDEX Turmeric Futures
Name of Commodity Turmeric
Ticker symbol TMCFGRNZM
Basis Former Polished turmeric fingers Nizamabad quality ex warehouse Nizamabad exclusive of GST
Delivery unit 5 MT
Tick size Rs. 2.00
Delivery center Nizamabad (up to radius of 50 Kms from the muncipal limits)
Additional Delivery center Sangli, Erode and Basmat (up to radius of 50 Kms from the muncipal limits) with Location wise Premium/discount as announced by the Exchange
Farmer Polished Turmeric Fingers with the following specifications as the basis
Inferior quality Turmeric - should not be more than 2.25%
Fingers that are broken/those less thsan 15mm should not be more than 3.0%
Fingers less than or equal to 3 cm in length should not be more than 15%
Damage due to moisture (i.e Lokhandi) or over boiling (i.e Kadh) should not be more than 1.2%
Quality Specifications Unboiled or less boiled (Gajarthod) turmeric should not be more than 0.5%
Bhusa, chaff dirt, earth clods and stones should not be more than 0.75%
Bulbs should not be more than 3%
Moisture- Max 12.0%
Turmeric should be free frpm fungus
Turmeric should not be artificially colored with dyes or chemicals
Page 99 of 103
Government Wheat & Rice Stocks Government Wheat Procurement

Wheat - Stocks as on Rice - Stocks as on
Year State 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
1st April 1st Oct
2015-16 17.22 12.58 Punjab 11.71 12.69 12.91 12.71 13.22 9.65
2016-17 14.54 14.47 Haryana 7.43 8.78 9.32 7.40 8.49 4.19
2017-18 8.06 16.31 Uttar Pradesh 3.70 5.29 3.70 3.58 5.64 0.34
2018-19 13.23 18.63 Madhya Pradesh 6.73 7.31 6.73 12.94 12.82 4.60
2019-20 16.99 24.92 Rajasthan 1.25 1.53 1.41 2.23 2.34 0.01
2020-21 24.70 19.26 Gujarat 0.01 0.04 0.01 0.08 0.17 0.00
2021-22 27.30 25.33 Others 0.01 0.14 0.06 0.06 0.66 0.01
2022-23 18.99 20.47 Total 30.82 35.80 34.13 38.99 43.34 18.79
Unit: MMT Unit: MMT
Source: Food Corporation of India/Origo e-Mandi Research Source: Food Corporation of India/Origo e-Mandi Research
Import Tariffs on Grains and Products Import Tariffs on Pulses

Wheat and Wheat Products Trade Policy Tariff Schedule
Commodity
Wheat 44% Export Import Applied Duty
Meslin 100% Peas (Matar) Free Restricted# 50%
Wheat and Muslin Flour 33% Chickpeas (Chana) Free Free 60%
Uncooked pasta, not stuffed otherwise prepared not
49% Moong Free Restricted# 0%
containing eggs
Other Pasta 49% Urad Free Free (till Mar 2024) 0%
Rice USA origin 22%
Paddy Rice in Husk 80% Lentil (Masur) Free Free Other origins ‘Nil’
Semi milled or wholly milled rice 70% (valid till Mar 2024)
Broken Rice 70% Pigeon pea (Tur/Arhar) Free Free (till Mar 2024) 10%
Coarse Grains
Corn 55% Source: Ministry of Finance, GOI/Origo e-Mandi Research
Source: Ministry of Finance, GOI/Origo e-Mandi Research #Import subject to QRs of 1.5 lakh MT/fiscal year.
Crop Yield (Unit: MT/Ha)

Corn Yield Wheat Yield
Country 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 Country 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
United States 11.08 11.08 10.51 10.76 11.09 10.88 China 5.48 5.42 5.63 5.74 5.81 5.86
Argentina 6.15 8.36 8.10 7.94 6.97 7.54 European Union 5.61 5.18 5.70 5.52 5.70 5.54
China 6.11 6.10 6.32 6.32 6.29 6.44 Ukraine 4.06 3.73 4.16 3.71 4.46 3.93
World 5.61 5.86 5.78 5.65 5.87 5.74 World 3.49 3.39 3.53 3.51 3.51 3.55
Brazil 4.94 5.77 5.51 4.37 5.32 5.51 India 3.20 3.37 3.53 3.44 3.52 3.37
India 3.07 3.07 3.01 3.19 3.33 3.20 Russia 3.11 2.72 2.70 2.98 2.72 3.17
Soybean Yield Mustard seed Yield

Country 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 Country 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Brazil 3.51 3.36 3.48 3.53 3.12 3.53 European Union 3.21 2.80 3.00 3.14 3.23 3.30
United States 3.31 3.40 3.19 3.43 3.48 3.33 Canada 2.31 2.27 2.35 2.34 1.54 2.21
World 2.75 2.89 2.76 2.86 2.74 2.85 World 2.10 2.03 2.01 2.12 1.95 2.09
Argentina 2.32 3.33 2.92 2.81 2.76 2.79 China 2.00 2.03 2.05 2.08 2.10 2.07
China 1.85 1.90 1.94 1.98 1.95 1.98 Australia 1.23 1.12 1.13 1.82 2.13 2.03
India 0.81 0.98 0.76 0.81 0.95 0.95 India 1.19 1.23 1.08 1.27 1.34 1.28
Rice Yield Groundnut Yield

Country 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 Country 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
China 6.92 7.03 7.06 7.04 7.11 7.08 United States 4.49 4.48 4.41 4.27 4.63 4.50
Vietnam 5.79 5.80 5.88 6.00 5.93 5.99 China 3.71 3.75 3.78 3.80 3.81 3.81
Indonesia 4.76 4.68 4.71 4.77 4.67 4.68 World 1.68 1.66 1.71 1.68 1.63 1.69
Bangladesh 4.35 4.45 4.55 4.51 4.63 4.65 Nigeria 1.26 1.26 1.35 1.30 1.21 1.32
World 4.51 4.56 4.61 4.60 4.63 4.59 Others 1.19 1.30 1.28 1.31 1.26 1.29
India 3.86 3.96 4.08 4.08 4.21 4.12 India 1.36 0.99 1.30 1.11 1.21 1.21
Cotton Yield
Country 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
China 1.76 1.79 1.76 2.01 1.88 2.03
United States 1.01 0.99 0.93 0.96 0.92 1.06
World 0.80 0.78 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.79
India 0.50 0.45 0.46 0.45 0.44 0.44
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, GOI & USDA /Origo e-Mandi Research
Page 100 of 103

CBOT - Chicago Board of Trade brought a suite of interest rates, agricultural and equity index products to our existing offering. The Chicago Board of Trade, established on April 3, 1848, is one of the world's oldest futures and options exchanges. On July 12, 2007,
the CBOT merged with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to form the CME Group.
COMEX - The Commodity Exchange Inc. is the primary futures and options market for trading metals such as gold, silver, copper, and aluminum.
CME - Chicago Mercantile Exchange-CME Group is the world’s leading, American global market company, and most diverse derivatives marketplace, made up of four exchanges, CME, CBOT, NYMEX, and COMEX. Each exchange offers a wide range of global
benchmarks across all major asset classes. It trades in asset classes that include agricultural products, currencies, energy, interest rates, metals, stock indexes, and cryptocurrencies futures.
CCI - The Cotton Corporation of India Limited or CCI is a Government of India agency, engaged in diverse activities related to trade, procurement, and export of cotton. CCI is a public sector agency responsible for equitable distribution of cotton among the
different constituents of the industry and aid imports of cotton. The role and function of CCI continue to enlarge with the changing cotton scenario in the country. Now, the major role of the CCI is to undertake price support operations, whenever the market prices
of kapas fall below the minimum support prices (MSP) announced by Govt. of India, without any quantitative limit. Besides MSP operations, to fulfill the raw material requirement of the domestic textile industry, particularly for a lean season, CCI undertakes
commercial purchase operations.
CAI - Cotton Association of India is engaged in providing a wide range of services to the entire cotton value chain since its incorporation in 1921. All segments of the cotton trade and textile industry of the country including Mill Buyers, Growers & Growers Co-
operatives, Ginners, Brokers, Merchants, Importers, Exporters, etc. are represented in CAI. Represented on various International Cotton Forum i.e. ICAC, ICA, CICCA, IFCP, ITMF, and several other International Cotton Associations.
Cotlook-A INDEX - The COTLOOK-A INDEX is intended to be representative of the level of offering prices on the international raw cotton market. It is an average of the cheapest five quotations from a selection of the principal upland cotton traded internationally.
The Cotlook Indices are acknowledged by the trading fraternity, governments, and international organizations such as UNCTAD and ICAC, as accurate measures of the fluctuation of international raw cotton values. Several producing countries incorporate the
indices, or elements thereof, into national farm legislation.
CRB Index - Commodity Research Bureau Index acts as a representative indicator of today's global commodity markets. It measures the aggregated price direction of various commodity sectors and is calculated using the arithmetic average of commodity futures
prices with monthly rebalancing. The index consists of 19 commodities: Aluminum, Cocoa, Coffee, Copper, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil, Gold, Heating Oil, Lean Hogs, Live Cattle, Natural Gas, Nickel, Orange Juice, RBOB Gasoline, Silver, Soybeans, Sugar, and Wheat.
Those commodities are sorted into 4 groups, with different weightings: Energy: 39%, Agriculture: 41%, Precious Metals: 7%, Base/Industrial Metals: 13%.
Derivative Market - The derivatives market is the financial market for derivatives, financial instruments like futures contracts or options, which are derived from other forms of assets.
Dollar Index - The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX, DXY, or DX) is an index of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners' currencies. It is a weighted geometric mean of the dollar's value relative to the
following select currencies: Euro (EUR)-57.6% weight, Japanese yen (JPY)-13.6% weight, Pound sterling (GBP)-11.9% weight, Canadian dollar (CAD)-9.1% weight, Swedish krona (SEK)-4.2% weight, Swiss franc (CHF)-3.6% weight.
FCI - The Food Corporation of India (FCI) is a statutory body created and run by the Government of India. It is under the ownership of Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution, Government of India formed by the enactment of Food Corporation
Act, 1964 by the Parliament of India. It implements the following objectives of the National Food Policy:
1. Effective price support operations for safeguarding the interests of the poor farmers
2. Distribution of foodgrains throughout the country for Public Distribution System (PDS)
3. Maintaining a satisfactory level of operational and buffer stocks of foodgrains to ensure National Food Security
4. Regulate market price to provide foodgrains to consumers at a reliable price
LME - The Landon Mercantile Exchange is a futures & forwards exchange with the world's largest market in standardized forward contracts, futures contracts and options on base metals. The exchange also offers contracts on ferrous metals and precious metals.
MCX - The Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited is a commodity derivatives exchange that facilitates online trading of commodity derivatives transactions, thereby providing a platform for price discovery and risk management. The Exchange operates
under the regulatory framework of Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). MCX offers trading in commodity derivative contracts across varied segments including bullion, industrial metals, energy and agricultural commodities.
MPOC - Malaysian Palm Oil Council promotes the market expansion of Malaysian palm oil and its products by enhancing the image of palm oil and creating better acceptance of palm oil through awareness of various technological and economic advantages
(techno-economic advantages) and environmental sustainability.
NABARD - National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) is an apex regulatory body for the overall regulation of regional rural banks and apex cooperative banks in India. It is under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Finance, Government of India.
The bank has been entrusted with "matters concerning policy, planning, and operations in the field of credit for agriculture and other economic activities in rural areas in India". NABARD is active in developing and implementing financial inclusion.
NCDEX - National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Limited is a leading agricultural commodity exchange in India. The Exchange has a broad-based bouquet of permitted commodities aggregating to a total of 23 (which is also the highest) and includes
commodities such as pulses, spices, and guar, which are not traded on any platforms in the global scenario and are economically relevant to India, forming an important component of India’s global trade.
NSE - National Stock Exchange of India Limited is the leading stock exchange of India. It is the world’s largest derivatives exchange in 2021 by the number of contracts traded based on the statistics maintained by the Futures Industry Association.
NYMEX - New York Mercantile Exchange, which is a part of CME Group, is known for energy products trading worldwide.
PDS - The Indian food security system was established by the Government of India under the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution to distribute food and non-food items to India's poor at subsidized rates. Major commodities distributed
include staple food grains, such as wheat, rice, sugar, and essential fuels like kerosene, through a network of fair price shops (also known as ration shops) established in several states across the country. Food Corporation of India, a government-owned corporation,
procures and maintains the public distribution system (PDS).
SEA - The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India was formed in 1963 to help and foster the development and growth of the Solvent Extraction Industry in India. At present, the Association is having 875 members including about 350 working solvent extraction
plants having a combined oilcake/oilseed processing annual capacity of about 30 MMT. The Association is an all-India body to solvent extractions industry and premier vegetable oil Association in the country having wide representative membership consisting of
processors of Rice bran, Oilcakes, Minor Oilseeds, and Soybean.
SEBI - The Securities and Exchange Board of India is the regulatory body for the securities and commodity market in India under the ownership of the Ministry of Finance, Government of India. It was established on 12 April 1988 and given Statutory Powers on 30
January 1992 through the SEBI Act, 1992.
SOPA - The Soybean Processors Association of India is the only national-level body representing the soybean processors, farmers, exporters, and brokers in India working towards the aim to strengthen soybeans as a viable crop. The main objective of SOPA is to
encourage the development and promotion of Soy-based products in the interest of the farmers as well as the processors.
USDA - United States Department of Agriculture is the federal executive department responsible for developing and executing federal laws related to farming, forestry, rural economic development, and food.
Page 101 of 103

Profile of Authors
Major Rajiv Yadav, Sr. VP-Origo Commodities

Rajiv Yadav, an alumnus of IIFT, is currently serving as the Senior Vice President, Supply Chain Business at Origo. He earlier served in the
Indian army as a commissioned officer for 6 years and then went to work in prestigious companies like Cargill where he worked as a trader,
Olam where worked as a General Manager, Vice President at COFCO International and General Manager at United Breweries as well. He is a
seasoned professional with 18+ years of experience in commodity trading across functions like procurement, sourcing, selling, etc. His
expertise lies in domestic as well as international trading of grains, oilseeds, and pulses. He has recently received an award on behalf of
Origo Commodities for "Emerging Leader in Supply Chain of Food, Feed and Edible Oil at Globoil India/Sugar Summit 2022".
Mr. Tarun Satsangi, AGM- Head of Research, Origo Commodities

Tarun Satsangi is a seasoned Commodity, Forex, and Global Economic Research Expert with a rich and diverse experience of 17+ in Oil and
Oilseeds, Cotton, Spices, Gains, Pulses, Precious & Base Metals, Energy, Forex, Crypto, Future Trading, and Hedging. Expert in identifying
mis-priced assets and sentiment & scenario analysis. Tarun Satsangi is a Frequent Popular Commodity Speaker in Media (ET NOW, ET Now
Swadesh, CNBC Awaaz, Zee Business, DD, etc.), Client seminars, Training & Development program. His views on Commodities are most
sought by commodities traders & media houses in India. Tarun Satsangi was the recipient of the reputed "India's Best Market Analyst
Award" in commodities organized by Zee Media 3 consecutive times, awarded by then Hon’ble Finance Minister, Mr. Pranab Mujherjee in
2012, awarded by then Hon’ble Chief Minister of Gujarat, Mr. Narendra Modi in 2013” and awarded by then Hon'ble Railway Minister, Mr. Suresh Prabhu in
2014. He also received "Ishan Award 2012" for exemplary performance in the corporate sector, awarded by Freddy Svane, Ambassador of Denmark to India.
AIAC also awarded Mr. Satsangi "Gems of India" award in 2014 for his contribution to Commodities and Currency Research. Before joining Origo, he was
associated with Globe Commodities Ltd as Head of Research for 9 years. He also headed the Research Department of GFM and Bonanza Portfolio Ltd apart
from running house own venture for 4-Year. He started Research Department in all the previous companies from scratch and made the best in the Industry.
Mr. Indrajit Paul, Sr. Manager-Research Origo Commodities

Indrajit Paul is a seasoned Agri commodity research professional with broad expertise in Grains, Oilseeds, Edible oil, Cotton, Coffee, Sugar
& Livestock feed research across India & South East Asia. He is currently building up an Agri research desk from scratch at Origo
Commodities. He has previously managed research desk for Grain, Oilseeds, Pulses, Spices, Edible oils, Cotton and Livestock/Poultry Feed
across India Subcontinent & South East Asia at COFCO INTL. A frequent popular commodity speaker in business news channels, Origo
eMandi TV and print media. He holds dual Master's degree - an MBA in Agribusiness and Plantation Management from "Indian Institute of
Plantation Management" set up by the Ministry of Commerce, GOI and MBA in International Business from Pondicherry University. He is
skilled in Supply & Demand Analysis, Long term data modelling, Forecasting supply and demand, Price forecasting.
Page 102 of 103

About Origo
Origo is India’s leading Agri-tech Company, preferred partner for commodity supply and finance. It provides access to the largest network of commodity
sellers, buyers, lenders across the country. Our services are availed by leading private, corporate and retail clients as well as public sector organizations.
With Origo, you get the best of Commodity Procurement and Custom Financing solutions, backed by scientific knowledge and the latest technology.
Services
• Origo e-Mandi: Digital Commodity platform for buying/selling of commodities, custom financing options and proprietary research. Origo e-Mandi
ensures cost-efficient procurement and sale of commodities across the country while meeting price expectations and quality criteria. The Platform
brings together a wide network of buyers/suppliers and lenders in the commodities space. Our unique proposition is to custom-define trade auction
and settlement terms that ensures quick turnaround and faster payment. Through e-Mandi platform solution, you can significantly reduce supply
chain costs and secure financing, faster deliveries and supplies.
• Procurement Finance: ProFin, Origo’s procurement finance service is a unique combination of commodity procurement and trade credit. ProFin
provides a dual advantage to the buyer – higher procurement volumes and a credit period for a convenient bill clearance window. On the other hand,
payments are released to the suppliers on behalf of the buyers. With ProFin, the buyers can increase their purchasing power at best possible prices
and suppliers receive the benefit of immediate payment against their sales. The service provides a win-win situation for both parties with seamless
cash management even during peak seasons.
• Structured Trade Facility (STF): Structured Trade Facility (STF) gets the best value for buyers, suppliers, and lenders. STF ensures higher profit
margins for producers by connecting them directly with buyers. At the same time, buyers can save a great deal of time and cost with ensured supply
and off-balance sheet financing solutions, improving their cash flows. Buyers can purchase commodities with only 20%, hence increasing their
capacity to purchase. STF offers a long-term supply contract varying from 6 to 12 months.
• Agri-Commodity Warehousing: Origo understands that lack of quality storage may cause significant losses to you as well as lead to food and
resource wastage, and have an adverse impact on climate. Origo’s modern and scientific storage practices curb losses and retain the produce in the
best form and quality. We offer warehousing facilities across India. Access our warehousing network across 12 states and simplify your stocking
requirements.
Our Vision
Our vision is to transform the fragmented commodity supply chain into an integrated and efficient ecosystem by providing reliable solutions and create value
in an inclusive and sustainable manner for all participants, from the primary producer to the end consumer.
Our Mission
Our mission is to offer a comprehensive commodity trade facilitation solution that mitigates risks, minimizes wastage and adds value at every stage in the
post-harvest supply chain. We offer tech-enabled, multi-stakeholder platforms for inclusive modern markets that promote secure trade. We strive to ensure
high security and total transparency by using the best technology, adhering to best practices and having zero tolerance for unethical practices.
Page 103 of 103


Origo Commodity Year Book 2023

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Origo Commodity Year Book 2023

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Origo Commodity Year Book 2023

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

COMMODITY YEARBOOK 2023

S. No. COTTON Page No.

S. No. CORN Page No.

S. No. RICE Page No.

S. No. WHEAT Page No.

S. No. PALM OIL Page No.

S. No. GROUNDNUT Page No.

S. No. MUSTARD Page No.

S. No. SOYBEANS COMPLEX Page No.

S. No. CHICKPEAS Page No.

S. No. LENTILS Page No.

S. No. CUMIN SEED Page No.

S. No. CORIANDER Page No.

S. No. TURMERIC Page No.

S. No. COMMODITY PRICE TREND Page No.

S. No. OTHERS Page No.

Major Bull Runs since 1970

1971-74 1977-80 1986-88 1992-96 2001-12 2020 - 2022

Commodities Price Performance during 2001-2012 Bull-Run (in USD)

The Years 2021 and 2022

JEERA DHANIYA WHEAT BARLEY BAJRA GROUNDNUT EXPELLER

How Metals & Energies Prices Performed in 2022 (in Percentage)

LITHIUM NICKEL NATURAL GAS IRON ORE PLATINUM TIN

All India Monsoon Rainfall Departure

World Trade Trend

Production of Cotton in India has increased at a CAGR of 4.43 percent

World Demand Trend Ending Stocks

World consumption of cotton is likely to drop by -5.0% y-o-y to 24.32MMT

World ending stock is projected to gain by 4.8% to 19.5MMT, the highest

India Cotton State-wise Area, Yield and Production

Crop Balance Sheet-Cotton (In Million Bales)

Crop (Production) 37.00 33.30 36.50 35.38 30.71 33.05

Imports 1.58 3.54 1.55 1.10 1.40 1.20

Total Supply 42.96 41.13 43.70 48.57 39.29 37.44

Mill Consumption 28.01 27.08 23.37 29.75 29.30 28.00

S.S.I Consumption 2.62 2.24 2.05 2.24 1.90 1.50

Closing Stock 4.29 5.65 12.08 7.32 3.19 4.44

Average Cotton Consumption in India (in Lakh Bales)

Cotton Imports in India

Cotton Exports in India

India Cotton Imports and Exports

Importance of Corn in the Indian Economy

India’s corn exports remained volatile in the past decade due to

India maize consumption has grown at a CAGR of 3.5% during 1980-81 to

Historical Prices-Maize Gulabbagh (in Rs/Quintal) Historical Prices-Maize Chhindwara (Rs/Quintal)

Source: Origo e-Mandi Research

Crop Balance Sheet-Maize (in MMT)

Particulars Country 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23

Argentina 32.0 51.0 51.0 52.0 51.5 55.0

India Maize Imports

India Maize Exports

1) North-Eastern Region: This region comprises Assam and the North-

rice production has increased by 156% since 1980-81, growing at a

Rice production in India has increased at a CAGR of 2.1% from 1980-81 to

India’s rice consumption increased by 109% since 1980-81. Rice

World Demand Trend World Trade Trend

Source: Origo e-Mandi Research

Crop Balance Sheet-Rice (in MMT)

Bangladesh 32.7 34.9 35.9 34.6 35.9 35.7