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1 Within 40 years, a top expert says, we may break up

tornadoes and produce rain or sntnv virtually at will

MadetoOrdi?
By CAPT. II. T. ORVILLE, USN (Ret.) A WEATHER station in southeast Texas spots
a threatening cloud formation moving to-
ward Waco on its radar screen; the shape of
the cloud indicates a tornado may be building up.
An urgent warning is sent to Weather Control
Headquarters. Back comes an order for aircraft to
dissipate the cloud. And less than an hour after the
incipient tornado was first sighted, the aircraft
radios back: Mission accomplished. The storm
was broken up; there was no loss of life, no prop-
erty damage.
This hypothetical destruction of a tornado in its
infancy may sound fantastic today, but it could well
become a reality within 40 years. In this age of
the H-bomb and supersonic flight, it is quite pos-
sible that science will find ways not only to dissi-
pate incipient tornadoes and hurricanes, but to
influence all our weather to a degree that staggers
the imagination.
Indeed, if investigation of weather control re-
ceives the public support and funds for research
which its importance merits, we may be able even-
tually to make weather almost to order.
By milking rain or snow from reluctant clouds at
• si the proper time and place, we may be able to trans-
'r •
form vast barren areas like the American dust bowl
into fertile crop-productive land, drastically reduc-
ing famines the world over. Rain-on-order likewise
could curb forest fires that destroy an average of
'I' 16,000,000 acres of timber in the United States
every year.
We also might be able to prevent rain—for the
farmer when he wants to dry his hay, for the fruit
grower who fears fungus-promoting dampness, for
the outdoor-sports promoter, even for sponsors of
Sunday-school picnics.
Heavy thunderstorms may be moderated to lessen
the hazards of floods, which cause $275,000,000
worth of property damage a year in the United ed *
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States. Freezing rain, snow and sleet which stall
•s

/<
,.X.> surface traffic and damage communications lines
may be drastically reduced. Hailstorms that wreck
crops may be halted. Fogs that delay airline flights
might be dispersed.
It is even conceivable that we could use weather
as a weapon of warfare, creating storms or dissipat-
ing them as the tactical situation demands. We
might deluge an enemy with rain to hamper a mill-

Collier's, May 28, 1954

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 SEEDING PUNIS
SfiDINO BALLOONS
WITH TIM6 FUSES

• 30,000 FT, BALLOONS iXFLOOf

Ml STRIAM 300 MPM

tmmm* tmttt*

PREDETERMINED DISTANCE USING 300 MPH JET STREAM AS BASIS

Weather control used as a military weapon: adapting civilian techniques to warfare, planes could drop balloons containing seeding crystals ii

the degree ot weather control I have outlined can

be achieved in four decades.
We will not have to wait 40 years, however, to de-
He's Weather Adviser to the President rive much greater economic benefits from weather
than we have today. While research on weather
modification is progressing, there are interim steps
Capt. Howard T. OrviUe, USN 3$«#£-|lfe' the importance of radar in com-
which can and, I am confident, will be taken. These
(Retired), is chairman of tlxe bating destructive storms; it was
Advisory Committee on Weather largely through his efforts that steps do not require the exhaustive and detailed re-
Control appointed by President the Navy developed methods for search needed for weather control. They require
Dwight D. Eisenhower to correlate locating and tracking hurricanes only the application of electronic devices already in
information on weather-control and typhoons by radar. In addi- existence or under development. And while these
experiments and to recommend tion to his weather duties, he is steps will not give us control of the weather, they
ways of supervising future com- at present a technical consultant will give us an opportunity to mitigate its harmful
mercial operations in the field. to the Bendix Aviation Corpora- effects through a completely accurate system of
A graduate of the U.S. Naval tion's Friez Instrument Division. weather forecasting.
Academy, OrviUe was awarded a Besides OrviUe, there are four 1 think it entirely probable that, in 10 years,
master of science degree in meteorology by other civilian members on the Advisory your daily weather forecast will read something
Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1930 Committee on Weather Control. They are: like this:
and has been active in weather work ever Dr. A. M. Eberle, dean of agriculture of South
"Freezing rain, starting at 10:46 A.M., ending at
since. Daring World War II, he was weather Dakota State College; Lewis W. Douglas,
former ambassador to Great Britain, now a
2:32 P.M." or "Heavy snowfall, seven inches, start-
adviser to the Secretary of the Pfavy, the ing at 1:43 A.M., continuing throughout day until
commander in chief of the U.S. Fleet and prominent rancher and miner in Arizona;
Kenneth C. Spengler, executive secretary of 7:37 P.M."
the Chief of Naval Operations. He charted
the weather for the historic first air raid the American Meteorological Society; and And the weather will adhere to that time sched-
on Tokyo led by General James Doolittle Brigadier General Joseph J. George, U.S. Air ule. Jokes about the weatherman's predictions will
and was one of the principal weather advisers Force Reserve, superintendent of meteorology be obsolete, because his forecasts, based on an
for the Allied invasion of North Africa. of Eastern Air Lines. Charles Gardner is elaborate electronic system of reporting and ana-
acting executive secretary of the committee. lyzing data, will admit of no error.
Capt. OrviUe was one of the first to recognize
Present-day U.S. Weather Bureau forecasts are
extremely valuable. They provide annual economic
benefits amounting to billions of dollars. They are
85 to 90 per cent accurate and are better than those
issued in any other country in the world. But an
tary movement or strike at his food supplies by have outlined, hundreds of meteorological un- electronic system could provide information riot
withholding needed rain from his crops. knowns must be solved at a cost of possibly billions now available and greatly cut down the time needed
Countless other benefits could accrue from an of dollars. to analyze reports.
efficient method of weather modification. My be- My distinguished colleague, Dr. Sverre Petters- I have proposed a multimillion-dollar program
lief that many of these benefits could be obtained sen of the University of Chicago, has remarked to set up an almost entirely automatic reporting
within 40 years is based upon my 26 years as a that our knowledge of precipitation is very meager and forecasting system. The money would be spent
weatherman and upon an intimate knowledge of indeed. And before we can hope to control the at the rate of several million dollars annually over
the development of cloud-seeding or rain-making weather, we must learn what causes weather. To the next 10 years. It would go primarily for the
techniques since the first successful operations in gain this knowledge would probably require an ef- purchase of such modern electronic equipment as
November, 1946, by Drs. Irving Langmuir and fort as large as the Manhattan Project for the de- radar, radiosondes (small, balloon-lifted instru-
Vincent J. Schaefer of the General Electric Com- velopment of atomic energy. ments which record temperature, pressure and
pany. Mastery of the weather is theoretically possible relative humidity at all altitudes), television and
Lest I appear overenthusiastic, though, let me if our research is expanded on that scale. I think "electronic brain" computers. The equipment
sound a note of reserve. It is possible today to in- that cloud-seeding in eight years has carried the would be installed at 35 weather-control headquar-
crease rainfall under certain favorable conditions, technique of weather modification about as far as ters stations and more than 300 subsidiary report-
and to dissipate some types of fog. aviation progressed during its first eight years. If ing stations across the nation.
We also have reports that hail has been reduced. weather research continues to match the pace of air A start already has been made on such a system.
But before we can hope to achieve all the benefits I progress, I believe there's an excellent chance that Texas is setting up a state-wide radar tornado-
26 CoUier's for May 28, 1954

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 iCE CRYSTALS FINALLY BECOME SNpWFLAKES
WHICH PASS THROUGH FREEZING IIVEL
INTO WARMER AlR, THEN TURN TOr RAINDROPS

CLOUDS EXPAND;
ICE CRYSTALS FORM

FREEZING LEVEL

DEEP MOIST AIR CURRENT 50 MPH

150 MILES
30 MIN. 60 MIN. 90 MIN.

h-speed upper-air current; When fuses explode balloons, crystals drop into clouds, absorb m o i s t u r e a n d fall as r a i n — m i r i n g e n e m y t r a n s p o r t

warning network which should be of tremendous salt wafted aloft from the oceans by air currents— clouds into rain before they can build up violence.
value in saving lives and reducing storm damage. enter the cloud. There infinitesimal cloud drop- Control of destructive storms, such as hurri-
Extension of a completely accurate weather- lets begin to cling to them. As more and more canes, tornadoes and heavy thundcistorms with
reporting and -forecasting system to cover the droplets collect, the original particles become small associated hail and lightning, would be a great
whole country could save, hundreds of lives and ice crystals. When enough droplets cling to the help to mankind. Tornadoes alone have taken as
billions of dollars a year. People in the path of a crystals—and it is estimated that it takes 1,000,000 many as 794 lives and caused $47,000,000 worth
tornado could be warned in advance; surprise now to make a normal-size snowflake—they become of property damage in a single year in the United
accounts for most of the casualties and much of the heavy enough to fall. If the air in the lower portion States.
damage in such storms. of the cloud is warm enough, the snowflakes melt Proper seeding techniques also may go a long
Highway engineers could be consistently alerted and fall as raindrops. way eventually toward alleviating drought con-
hours in advance of a freezing rain or sleet storm In artificial rain making, dry ice or silver iodide ditions, which in one year (1934) cost the United
and take appropriate steps to minimize trafTic acci- crystals are introduced into the cloud. Their job States an estimated $5,000,000,000. Water short-
dents. Municipal governments could be told of an is to take the place of the dust or salt particles and age has always been a problem in this country, par-
approaching snowstorm, including exactly when it collect moisture enough to fall as snow or rain. ticularly in the area west of the Mississippi. Much
would arrive, how long it would last and how heavy The crystals may be dropped into a cloud from of the West depends on irrigation, and a water sup-
the fail would be, so that they could mobilize their above, by airplane, or released from ground gen- ply only 10 to 15 per cent below normal can mean
snow-clearance equipment and workers. (A single erators and carried upward by natural air currents. disaster for farmers. Moreover a study made by
heavy surprise storm in December, 1947, cost the the American Institute of Aerological Research in
city of Tfew York $6,600,000 for snow removal.) Course of Cloud Must Be Considered four Nebraska counties showed that each addi-
Telephone and telegraph companies could be tional inch of rainfall boosted the value of crops in
notified in advance of an impending storm which If rain is desired over a given "target area," those four counties by $1,102,259.
might damage their lines. Fruit growers now with- the movement of the cloud must be taken into An excellent example of the value of weather-
out a fr'ost-warning service could be given ade- consideration. The "rain maker" computes the modification techniques in combating water short-
quate warning to get out their smudge pots. And direction the cloud is traveling and its speed, then ages can be found in the work of Dr. Wallace
you could move back the starting time of your Sat- plants his dry ice or silver iodide particles at a Howell of Howell Associates, a Cambridge, Massa-
urday golf game an hour because you would know point upwind from the target area, allowing a half chusetts, commercial "rain-making" concern. Hired
it was going to stop raining at precisely 10:20 A.M. hour to an hour for the moisture-collecting process. by New York City during the water shortage of
Thus there may be a two-stage development in Reports indicate that cloud-seeding has worked 1950-'51, Howell conducted 36 seedings over 31
mastery of the weather: an interim period—which remarkably well on occasion. At other times it has weeks. During that period, the New York water-
I think will come within 10 years—when we will failed for reasons we have not yet determined. That shed area's rainfall was 14 per cent higher than that
be able to eliminate much of the uncertainty in is why I emphasize the n*ed for continuing research in surrounding, unseeded areas. The increased rain-
weather forecasting, and a later period when we in this field. fall gave the New York reservoir system an extra
may actually be able to control some weather phe- How will we be able to prevent rain? Theoreti- 15,000.000,000 gallons of water—roughly a two-
nomena by extension of "cloud-modification" tech- cally, by overseeding a cloud. If too many crystals week supply.
niques. should be introduced into a cloud, some scientists Howell has conducted another interesting opera-
The present method of "modifying" a cloud is say, no single crystal would be able to collect tion which points up a further use of weather
known as "seeding" because it consists of introduc- enough moisture to fall. The result: the crystals modification. When a raging forest fire swept an
ing into the cloud certain particles which collect would dissipate in the air after absorbing all the area 50 by 100 miles near Forcstville, Quebec,
moisture and fall to the ground as rain or snow. moisture in the cloud—and the cloud itself would last August, he seeded the district for 1(3 days.
It is used to increase precipitation over any desig- evaporate. However, this theory has never been Rain fell copiously and extinguished the fire.
nated area. tested, and many scientists think that overseeding Last winter Howell was engaged by the town of
This system cannot be made to work at will. is impossible. Manchester, Vermont, to develop snowfall in the
Nature must supply two basic requirements. First, If later research does prove that overseeding area. The results of that operation have not yet
the cloud to be seeded must contain an adequate can, in effect, dry up a cloud, we might be able to been evaluated, but Howell believes that the data
supply of moisture. Second, the temnerature of apply the same technique to clearing fog; a fog will show the attempt was successful. The money
the upper portion of the cloud must be low, pref- bank essentially is a cloud of tiny water particles for his services was obtained by public subscription,
erably well under 10 degrees Fahrenheit. in suspension. The technique also might help dis- for snow means ski enthusiasts who will bring
Seeding a cloud merely duplicates a process of sipate destructive storms in the build-up stage. needed business to the area.
nature. In nature, under such freezing conditions, Storms also may be curbed in another way—by About a dozen other firms are also working
tiny particles—^dust from the earth's surface or normal seeding during the build-up stage to convert commercially in "rain making," offering to drain
27
ILLUSTRATED BY ROLF KLEP

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 Scodinf? oloiul by p l a n e : a i r r r a f t fl<Mv t h r o u g h
o n e of these curuulus cIou<lii sjirajing it

precipitation from the clouds for a fee. Two of the

best known arc North American Consultants, of
Pasadena, California, and the Water Resources De-
velopment Corporation, of Denver, Colorado. The
Dcnvei conipan} is now doing an estimated gross
business of more than a milh'on dollars a year—
a figure that Dr. Irving P. Krick, the president,
.says is "very small compared to what I know it is
going to be."
Krick has a ready answer for skeptics. "What
do they know?" he says. "They are the people who
have little or no knowledge of weather modifica-
tion, or base their judgments on a single unsuccess-
ful experiment. Over the last five years, our
company has operated more than 150 separate proj-
ects in 18 states and six foreign countries. We have
amassed more than 200,000 hours of seeding ex-
perience in varying latitudes. We don't think we
can increase rainfall—we know it."

Supcess with Dallas D r a i n a g e Basin

One of the most interesting of Krick's operations
was for the city of Dallas, Texas, last year. In a
six-month period ending in May, 1953, Krick op-
erated 12 silver iodide ground generators for a
total of 869 hours and 45 minutes in an area near
Lake Dallas. A check of water storage on June 1,
1953—after the seedings—showed that water in
the Dallas drainage basin had increased 363 per
cent over the January 1st level. By contrast, four
other nearby drainage basins ranged from a de-
crease of 22 per cent to an increase of 19 per cent
during the same interval.
.Statistics can always be interpreted in different
ways, of course, and these might be considered
suspect by the skeptics. But here's what the man
who hired Krick, K. F. Hoefle, superintendent of
the Dallas Water Works, has to say about the
project:
"1 personally am convinced that Dr. Krick's op-
erations brought a substantial increase in our water-
shed area. In the six months following his seeding
work we found a net gain in water storage almost
equal to the total gain of the previous two years,
when no seeding was conducted. It cannot be deter-
mined mathematically what portion of this gain
was produced liy Dr. Krick's efforts, but we dem-
onstrated our confidence in his ability to increase
rainfall by renewing his contract."
I have mentioned the possibility of using weather

& o t „ \ : 4 « - t t r j * e fonn,: generator

employees of W a t o r R ' o r a t i o n by two
Corp.) b l o J ; s T l v I r i o d t f " ' Development
8»vei iodide particles into a i r
Collier's for May 28, I954

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 29

, . . with particles from an airborne silver iodide bnrner. The cloud top . . . steadily in size. After 73 minutes, it had become a full-sized
[•hanged from white to a gray cirruslikc structure and then it grew . . . thunderstorm. General Electric conducted test in New Mexico

control as a weapon. In that realm, I defer to my weather-reporting and -forecasting network. Elec- few minutes later struck Waco and killed 115
colleague, Lieutenant Commander William J. tronic devices are needed not only to collect the persons.
Kotsch, a Navy meteorologist who has made a de- information required to make weather forecasts All these developments led to a decision by Texas
tailed study of the question. completely accurate, but also to get the forecasts to scientists and civic leaders to set up a state-wide
Kotsch believes submarines could hamper enemy the public much earlier. Today, the tremendous radar tornado-warning network. About the same
aircraft-carrier operations by seeding the area in number of calculations involved in rapidly chang- time, the U.S. Weather Bureau fell heir to a num-
which they were operating. The resulting precipi- mg weather take so long to complete that condi- ber of war-surplus radar units which could be mod-
tation would reduce the ceiling and visibility, cffec- tions may have changed before the forecasts reach ified for weather use. The bureau was willing to
tivel)' grounding the carrier's planes. On the other the public. make the sets available if someone would provide
hand, a fleet—or a ground force—might hide from The more than .'^00 weather-reporting stations the money for the modification—about $10,000 a
enemy aircraft in self-made weather. which J have recommended be utilized in the proj- set. A fund-raising committee was organized. The
Or take amphibious warfare. Suppose an assault ect would retain their present observation equip- members approached representatives of the 15
area is covered by low clouds which would preclude ment, or, preferably, improved versions of it. In Texas cities which have major weather stations and
the use ol aircraft for ground support. If we can addition, they would be equipped with radar units so far 12 have agreed to pay for converting a set.
again assume that the theory of cloud dissipation of several types which would supply vveather data The U.S. Weather Bureau will operate the system
by oversccding holds up, a submarine or two could not presently available. when it has been completed.
dissipate the clouds. This information would be relayed by television
Kotsch also points out that Russia would be at a to a vveathcrTorccast headquarters, translated into Tornado Warnings Long in Advance
disadvantage in any "strategic weather warfare," numbers and fed on punch cards into a master elec-
because weather characteristically moves from west tronic "brain," such as is now being developed at "Our sets have a range of 200 miles," says Ka-
to east. lust as long-range bombers move deep into the Institute of .-Vdvanccd Study at Princeton, New han, "and there is considerable overlap, so we hope
enemy territory to destroy sources of supply, Jersey. to be able to track the precise speed and path of a
weather-control planes operating from Western After digesting, sorting out and correlating the tornado and give the folks in its way a good three-
European bases might be able to deluge any sc- mformation, the "brain" v\ould punch out on cards or four-hour warning. This should make for a ter-
iecicd area of Russia with hcaxy rain, disrupting a 24-hour forecast for each of the observation rific payoff in lives saved and property damage
lines of supply or movements of armored units by points. J he cards would be fed into a tabulator reduced.
causing truck convoys and tanks to bog down wliich would print the inlbrmation on maps. With- "On the day of the Waco tornado, for example,
in mud. out the computer, the calculations would require the Weather Bureau was able to give the state po-
Just how would the seeding planes operate? I be- several hours. lice a brief alert. The principal of one San Angelo
lieve they could drop time-fused balloons at a point The present model of the Princeton machine high school, with only a 15-minute warning,
determined by wind forecasts, perhaps several hun- could handle vveather data from as many as 361 evacuated all his pupils to the ground lloor. When
dred miles from the target area. The balloons, car- observation points located about 200 miles apart the tornado struck, the entire top lloor of the school
ried by the jet stream, a high-speed upper-air —enough to cover the major part of the United was blown off. The only casualty to the fore-
current, would explode at a predetermined point States and Canada. The machine in 4<S minutes can warned pupils was one sprained ankle. I hate to
where reconnaissance has shown moisture clouds perform a million multiplications, 10,000,000 addi- think what the toll might have been."
to exist. The explosion would release crystals into tions and 20,000,000 other arithmetic problems. 1 hope to see the Texas tornado-warning net-
the clouds. During the moisture-collecting process, ( first suggested the development of a radar tor- work extended to the entire country, for a tornado
normal lower-level winds would push the clouds nado-warning system in a talk before the St. Louis can strike anywhere—all 48 states have been visited
toward the target area. If the preliminary compu chapter of the American Meteorological Socieiy by them. I am confident that the success Texas will
tations prove correct, rain should start to fall just as on April 22. 1953. Just two weeks earlier. Profes- enjoy in softening the tornado's punch will bring
the clouds drift over the designated area. sor Glen Stout of the University of Illinois for the about public interest in the rest of the country.
first time had taken a series of radar pictures of a Behind the radar-warning network, I hope to see
Attacking the Enemy's Food Supply tornado. the completely accurate electronic weather-report-
Subsequent investigation by Stout and by the ing system developed. Meantime, research on
Weather modification might also be employed weather scientists at Massachusetts Institute of weathci modification will continue.
to strike at an enemy's food supply. Moisture TechnologN' confirmed that a tornado indeed could The degree to which it will progress is question-
clouds could be intercepted en route, oversecdcd be identified on a radar screen; it showed up as a able. Perhaps some of the current theories on how
and dried up, depriving crops of needed moisture V-shaped cloud with a twisting tail. to control weather will not prove feasible. On the
and in time causing just as serious a military sit- At Texas Agricultural and Mechanical College, other hand, continuing research in the field may
uation as lack ot munitions. meantime. Dr. John C. Freeman and Professor produce some completely new developments, un-
These possible military uses of weather control Archie Kahan had been conducting experiments dreamed of today, which will permit even greater
are only theoretical. The Navy is not actively ex- in the application of radar to weather forecasting. steps in weather mastery than the possibilities I have
perimenting in this field because we have not yet On May U , 1953, a student at the college noticed suggested.
achieved the mastery over the atmosphere which a peculiar comma-shaped echo on the radarscope Man may well be on the threshold of a new era
such operations require. and photographed it. The results of the earlier in which he will disprove the adage that nothing
While weather-modification techniques are being work at the University of Illinois and MIT had can be done about the weather. M.Jk.Jk.
developed, I feel we should go ahead with establish- not reached the college, however, and no one rec-
ment of a completely accurate national electronic ognized the echo for what it was—a tornado that a The vlcns cziiTd^^rd in this article arc thrme of the anthoT and do not
necesmnly reflect Ihc oi)inlons of the Devanvicnt of the Navy.
Collier's for May 28, 1954

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Il,v?;,j'f^"'

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