Transportation Modeling
Definition
• Transportation modeling is a science that seeks to study the problems
that arise in providing transportation facilities in an urban, regional,
national setting and to prepare a systematic basis for planning such
facilities.
Travel behavior modeling/Demand modeling
Travel behavior modeling
Three types
❑Activity based model
❑Tour based model
❑Trip based model
Trip Type:
• Home based work (HBW)
• Home based shop (HBS)
• Home based other (HBO)
• Non home based (NHB)
Steps of Transportation Demand Modeling
There are four steps-
• Trip Generation (How much people goes from a specific area/location?)
• Trip Distribution (How much people distributed per location?)
• Modal split (Which vehicle will be used?)
• Trip Assignment (Which road will be used?)
1. Trip Generation:
Def: Total numbers of trips that produced from a study area and are attracted
by a study area.
Factors affecting trip production:
• No. of population.
• Ownership of car.
• Family size and composition.
• Income.
• Land use characteristics.
Factors affecting trip attraction:
• Retail floor space.
• Employment opportunity.
• Land use characteristics.
1. Trip Generation (Cont.)
Methodology
Following methods is used for trip generation modeling
• Regress analysis.
• Growth factor.
• Cross classification.
1. Regression analysis:
Pi=C+B1x1+B2x2+…………………+Bnxn
Ai= C' +B’1x’1+B’2x’2+…………………+B’nx’n
where, Pi= trip production
Ai = trip attraction
C1, B1, B2………………Bn = co-efficient of trip production
x1, x2………….xn = trip production independent variable.
C’1, B’1, B’2………………B’n = co-efficient of trip attraction
x’1, x’2………….x’n = trip attraction independent variable.
1. Trip Generation(Cont.)
Example of trip Generation Model
Trip production, PM = 0.62 POP + 0.12 AMO
Trip attraction AM = 0.41 RFS + 0.08 EMO
Where, POP = population; AMO = automobile ownership;
RFS = retail floor space; EMO = employment opportunity.
2. Trip Distribution
It determines how the trips generated from each zone is distributed to all
other zones based on the choice of destination.
2. Trip Distribution (cont.)
The trip distribution pattern in a study area can be represented by means of
a trip matrix or origin destination (O-D)matrix. This is a two dimensional
array of cells where rows and columns represent each of the zones in the
study area. The notation of the trip matrix is given in figure.
Figure: Trip Matrix
Tij is the number of trips between origin i and destination j.
2. Trip Distribution (Cont.)
Factors affecting
• Trip production and attraction
• Travel time
• Travel cost
• Distance
Methodology
• Growth factor method
• Gravity Model
2. Trip Distribution (Cont.)
Growth factor method
Type
• Uniform growth factor/singly constrained growth factor model
• Doubly constrained growth factor model
Advantages growth factor model
1. Simple to understand.
2. Preserve observed trip pattern.
3. Useful in short term-planning.
The limitations
1. Depends heavily on the observed trip pattern.
2. It cannot explain unobserved trips.
3. Do not consider changes in travel cost.
4. Not suitable for policy studies like introduction of a mode.
2. Trip Distribution (Cont.)
Uniform growth factor
• If the only information available is about a general growth rate for the
whole of the study area, then we can only assume that it will apply to
each cell in the matrix, that is a uniform growth rate. The equation can be
written as
where f is the uniform growth factor is the previous total number of trips, tij
is the expanded total number of trips.
2. Trip Distribution (Cont.)
Example: If the base year origin destination matrix of an area is as given.
Find the expanded matrix for growth rate of 1.3.
Solution:
2. Trip Distribution (Cont.)
Doubly constrained growth factor model
When information is available on the growth in the number of trips
originating and terminating in each zone, we know that there will be
different growth rates for trips in and out of each zone. This implies that
there are two constraints for that model and such a model is called doubly
constrained growth factor model. One of the methods of solving such a
model is given by Furness who introduced balancing factors and as
follows:
Procedure to solve
1. Set bj= 1
2. With bj solve for ai to satisfy trip production constraint.
3. With ai solve for bj to satisfy trip attraction constraint.
4. Update matrix and check for errors.
5. Repeat steps 2 and 3 till convergence.
2. Trip Distribution (Cont.)
Example
The base year trip matrix for a study area consisting of three zones is given
below.
The productions from the zone 1,2 and 3 for the horizon year is expected to
grow to 98, 106, and 122 respectively. The attractions from these zones are
expected to increase to 102, 118, 106 respectively. Compute the trip matrix for
the horizon year using doubly constrained growth factor model using Furness
method.
2. Trip Distribution (Cont.)
Gravity model
This model originally generated from an analogy with Newton’s gravitational
law.
Introducing some balancing factor Tij=AiOiBjDjf(cij)
where Ai and Bj are the balancing factors, f(cij) is the generalized function of
the travel cost.
2. Trip Distribution (Cont.)
Gravity model
2. Trip Distribution (Cont.)
Gravity model
The balancing factors are
2. Trip Distribution (Cont.)
Problem of Gravity Model (Singly constrained):
Calculate trip distribution matrix using gravity model. Necessary information
are given below. The function f(cij) is defined as f(cij) =1/ cij 2
Travel time (min)
Zon 1 2 3
e
1 0 5 7
2 4 0 6
Zone 1 2 3 total
3 6 6 0
Trip production 140 330 280 750
Trip attraction 300 270 180 750
2. Trip Distribution (Cont.)
Solution:
Zone 1 Zone 2
Zone 3
Trip Distribution:
T1-2=140[(270/5²)/(270/52+180/7²)]=104.46≈104.
T1-3=140[(180/7²)/(270/5²+180/7²)]=35.53≈36.
Zone 1 2 3 Total
T2-1=330[(300/4²)/(300/4²+180/6²)]=260.52≈261.
production
T2-3=330[(180/6²)/(300/4²+180/6²)]=69.47≈69. 1 140
2 330
T3-1=280[(300/6²)/(300/6²+270/6²)]=147.36≈147. 3 280
Actual 300 270 180
T3-2=280[(270/6²)/(300/6²+270/6²)]=132.63≈133. attraction
2. Trip Distribution (Cont.)
Initial trip distribution matrix
Zone 1 2 3 Total
production
1 0 104 36 140
2 261 0 69 330
3 147 133 0 280
Attraction 408 237 105
Actual attraction 300 270 180
Dissimilarity appeared in trial trip attraction with actual trip attraction.
So further trial in needed
2. Trip Distribution (Cont.)
Trial 1
Zone 1 2 3 Production Actual
production
1 0 270/237*104 180/105*36 180 140
=118 =62
2 300/408*261 0 180/105*69= 310 330
=192 118
3 300/408*147 270/237*133=1 0 260 280
=108 52
Attraction 300 270 180
Dissimilarity appeared in trial trip production with actual trip production.
So further trial in needed
2. Trip Distribution (Cont.)
Trial 2
Zone 1 2 3 Production
1 0 140/180*118=92 140/180*62=48 140
2 330/310*192=204 0 330/180*118=126 330
3 280/160*108=116 280/260*152 0 280
=164
Attraction 320 256 174
Trial trip attraction is very close to actual attraction. So further trial is not
required.
2. Trip Distribution (Cont.)
Doubly constrained
Steps
2. Trip Distribution (Cont.)
The productions from zone 1, 2 and 3 are 98, 106, 122 and attractions to zone
1,2 and 3 are 102, 118, 106. The function f(cij) is defined as f(cij) =1/ cij 2. The
cost matrix is as shown below
Calculate trip distribution matrix using doubly constrained gravity model
Solution
Solution
Solution
Assignment
1.0 1.4 1.7 1.9
1.4 1.0 1.6 1.8
1.7 1.6 1.0 1.3
1.9 1.8 1.3 1.0
Calculate trip distribution matrix using doubly constrained gravity model
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