Poisson Distributions - Definition, Formula & Examples
Poisson Distributions - Definition, Formula & Examples
The Poisson distribution has only one parameter, λ (lambda), which is the mean number of
events. The graph below shows examples of Poisson distributions with different values of
λ.
Table of contents
You can use a Poisson distribution to predict or explain the number of events occurring
within a given interval of time or space. “Events” could be anything from disease cases to
customer purchases to meteor strikes. The interval can be any specific amount of time or
space, such as 10 days or 5 square inches.
1. Individual events happen at random and independently. That is, the probability of one
event doesn’t affect the probability of another event.
2. You know the mean number of events occurring within a given interval of time or
space. This number is called λ (lambda), and it is assumed to be constant.
When events follow a Poisson distribution, λ is the only thing you need to know to
calculate the probability of an event occurring a certain number of times.
He found that a mean of 0.61 soldiers per corps died from horse kicks each year. However,
most years, no soldiers died from horse kicks. On the other end of the spectrum, one
tragic year there were four soldiers in the same corps who died from horse kicks.
The army corps that Bortkiewicz observed were a sample of the population of all Prussian
army corps. Because of the random nature of sampling, samples rarely follow a probability
distribution perfectly. The deaths by horse kick in the sample approximately follow a
Poisson distribution, so we can reasonably infer that the population follows a Poisson
distribution.
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The most probable number of events is represented by the peak of the distribution—the
mode.
When λ is low, the distribution is much longer on the right side of its peak than its left (i.e.,
it is strongly right-skewed).
As λ increases, the distribution looks more and more similar to a normal distribution. In
fact, when λ is 10 or greater, a normal distribution is a good approximation of the Poisson
distribution.
Mean and variance of a Poisson distribution
The Poisson distribution has only one parameter, called λ.
In most distributions, the mean is represented by µ (mu) and the variance is represented
by σ² (sigma squared). Because these two parameters are the same in a Poisson
distribution, we use the λ symbol to represent both.
Where:
An average of 0.61 soldiers died by horse kicks per year in each Prussian army
corps. You want to calculate the probability that exactly two soldiers died in the VII
Army Corps in 1898, assuming that the number of horse kick deaths per year follows
a Poisson distribution.
Calculation
The specific army corps (VII Army Corps) and year (1898) don’t matter because the
probability is constant.
The probability that exactly two soldiers died in the VII Army Corps in 1898 is 0.101.
Practice questions
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Frequently asked questions about Poisson
distributions
156 16
Shaun Turney
During his MSc and PhD, Shaun learned how to apply scientific and statistical methods to
his research in ecology. Now he loves to teach students how to collect and analyze data
for their own theses and research projects.
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