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Poisson Distributions - Definition, Formula & Examples

A Poisson distribution describes the probability of a discrete random variable occurring a certain number of times within a fixed interval. It has one parameter, λ, which represents the average number of times the event occurs. Examples where Poisson distributions apply include horse kick deaths, text messages per hour, and machine malfunctions per year. The mean and variance of a Poisson distribution are both equal to λ.
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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
113 views10 pages

Poisson Distributions - Definition, Formula & Examples

A Poisson distribution describes the probability of a discrete random variable occurring a certain number of times within a fixed interval. It has one parameter, λ, which represents the average number of times the event occurs. Examples where Poisson distributions apply include horse kick deaths, text messages per hour, and machine malfunctions per year. The mean and variance of a Poisson distribution are both equal to λ.
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Poisson Distributions | Definition, Formula & Examples

Published on May 13, 2022 by Shaun Turney. Revised on December 5, 2022.

A Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution. It gives the probability of an


event happening a certain number of times (k) within a given interval of time or space.

The Poisson distribution has only one parameter, λ (lambda), which is the mean number of
events. The graph below shows examples of Poisson distributions with different values of
λ.

 Table of contents

1. What is a Poisson distribution?


2. Examples of Poisson distributions
3. Probability mass function graphs
4. Mean and variance of a Poisson
distribution
5. Poisson distribution formula
6. Practice questions
7. Frequently asked questions about Poisson
distributions

What is a Poisson distribution?


A Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution, meaning that it gives the
probability of a discrete (i.e., countable) outcome. For Poisson distributions, the discrete
outcome is the number of times an event occurs, represented by k.

You can use a Poisson distribution to predict or explain the number of events occurring
within a given interval of time or space. “Events” could be anything from disease cases to
customer purchases to meteor strikes. The interval can be any specific amount of time or
space, such as 10 days or 5 square inches.

You can use a Poisson distribution if:

1. Individual events happen at random and independently. That is, the probability of one
event doesn’t affect the probability of another event.
2. You know the mean number of events occurring within a given interval of time or
space. This number is called λ (lambda), and it is assumed to be constant.

When events follow a Poisson distribution, λ is the only thing you need to know to
calculate the probability of an event occurring a certain number of times.

Examples of Poisson distributions


In general, Poisson distributions are often appropriate for count data. Count data is
composed of observations that are non-negative integers (i.e., numbers that are used for
counting, such as 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and so on).

Horse kick deaths


One of the first applications of the Poisson distribution was by statistician Ladislaus
Bortkiewicz. In the late 1800s, he investigated accidental deaths by horse kick of soldiers
in the Prussian army. He analyzed 20 years of data for 10 army corps, equivalent to 200
years of observations of one corps.
The following histogram shows simulated data that are similar to what Bortkiewicz
observed:

He found that a mean of 0.61 soldiers per corps died from horse kicks each year. However,
most years, no soldiers died from horse kicks. On the other end of the spectrum, one
tragic year there were four soldiers in the same corps who died from horse kicks.

Using modern terminology:

A death by horse kick is an “event.”


The time interval is one year.
The mean number of events per time interval, λ, is 0.61.
The number of deaths by horse kick in a specific year is k.

The army corps that Bortkiewicz observed were a sample of the population of all Prussian
army corps. Because of the random nature of sampling, samples rarely follow a probability
distribution perfectly. The deaths by horse kick in the sample approximately follow a
Poisson distribution, so we can reasonably infer that the population follows a Poisson
distribution.

Other examples of Poisson distributions


Since Bortkiewicz’s time, Poisson distributions have been used to describe many other
things. For example, a Poisson distribution could be used to explain or predict:
Text messages per hour
Male grizzly bears per hectare
Machine malfunctions per year
Website visitors per month
Influenza cases per year

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Probability mass function graphs


A Poisson distribution can be represented visually as a graph of the probability mass
function. A probability mass function is a function that describes a discrete probability
distribution.

The most probable number of events is represented by the peak of the distribution—the
mode.

When λ is a non-integer, the mode is the closest integer smaller than λ.


When λ is an integer, there are two modes: λ and  λ−1.

When λ is low, the distribution is much longer on the right side of its peak than its left (i.e.,
it is strongly right-skewed).
As λ increases, the distribution looks more and more similar to a normal distribution. In
fact, when λ is 10 or greater, a normal distribution is a good approximation of the Poisson
distribution.
Mean and variance of a Poisson distribution
The Poisson distribution has only one parameter, called λ.

The mean of a Poisson distribution is λ.


The variance of a Poisson distribution is also λ.

In most distributions, the mean is represented by µ (mu) and the variance is represented
by σ² (sigma squared). Because these two parameters are the same in a Poisson
distribution, we use the λ symbol to represent both.

Poisson distribution formula


The probability mass function of the Poisson distribution is:

Where:

is a random variable following a Poisson distribution


is the number of times an event occurs
) is the probability that an event will occur k times
is Euler’s constant (approximately 2.718)
is the average number of times an event occurs
! is the factorial function

Example: Applying the Poisson distribution formula

An average of 0.61 soldiers died by horse kicks per year in each Prussian army
corps. You want to calculate the probability that exactly two soldiers died in the VII
Army Corps in 1898, assuming that the number of horse kick deaths per year follows
a Poisson distribution.

Calculation

The specific army corps (VII Army Corps) and year (1898) don’t matter because the
probability is constant.

= 2 deaths by horse kick

= 0.61 deaths by horse kick per year


= 2.718

The probability that exactly two soldiers died in the VII Army Corps in 1898 is 0.101.

Practice questions

Try answering these questions to test your understanding of


Poisson distributions.

Start
Frequently asked questions about Poisson
distributions

What does “e” mean in the Poisson distribution formula? 

What does lambda (λ) mean in the Poisson distribution formula? 

What is the difference between a normal and a Poisson distribution? 

What is a normal distribution? 

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Shaun Turney
During his MSc and PhD, Shaun learned how to apply scientific and statistical methods to
his research in ecology. Now he loves to teach students how to collect and analyze data
for their own theses and research projects.
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