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Probability g7

The document provides an overview of a 7th grade probability unit for Ms. Najiba Aouini's class at Al Madar Private School during the 2022-2023 academic year. It includes the unit objectives, an introduction to probability concepts like likelihood scales and theoretical vs experimental probabilities. Example problems are provided to demonstrate determining probability using equally likely and mutually exclusive outcomes. The unit aims to help students understand key probability terms and calculations.

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katya
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184 views18 pages

Probability g7

The document provides an overview of a 7th grade probability unit for Ms. Najiba Aouini's class at Al Madar Private School during the 2022-2023 academic year. It includes the unit objectives, an introduction to probability concepts like likelihood scales and theoretical vs experimental probabilities. Example problems are provided to demonstrate determining probability using equally likely and mutually exclusive outcomes. The unit aims to help students understand key probability terms and calculations.

Uploaded by

katya
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Unit16 : Probability

Class : grade 7
School : Al Madar private school .
Academic year : 2022-2023
Teacher : Ms.Najiba Aouini
Content :

1. Objectives .
2. Introduction to probability .
3. The probability scale
4. Determining probability using equally likely outcomes.
5. Determining probability using Mutually exclusive outcomes .
6. Probability estimation .
7. Conclusion .
8. Ending up questions
1.Objectives:

 At the end of this lesson students will be able to :


1) Choose appropriate words to describe likelihood .
2) Write probability as a fraction, a percentage or a decimal .
3) Use equally likely outcomes to calculate a probability .
4) Identify mutually exclusive outcomes.
5) Use experimental data to estimate a probability .
6) Compare experimental and theoretical probabilities .
7) Calculate and use probability in simple situations.
2.Worming up and discussion
2.Introduction to probability

 We often make judgements as to whether an event will take place, and use words
to describe how probable that event is. For example, we might say that it is likely to
rain tomorrow, or that it is impossible to find somebody who is more than 3m tall.
 Other commonly used words to describe the chance of an event happening
include:
certain to happen (my birthday will be on 27 November this year.P=1 )
very likely ( it is likely to rain .should I take an umbrella )
even chance ( you drop a coin and obtain a head )
unlikely
impossible :you grow another nose.(P=0)
3.Probability scale:
 Probability is a mathematical way of describing how likely an event is to occur.

We can also use numbers between 0 and 1 to describe the probability of an event happening:
 An event that is impossible is given a probability of 0.
 An event that is certain is given a probability of 1.
 All other probabilities on this scale are between 0 and 1.
o If there is a 50% chance, the fraction is 1/2.
o The less likely an event is to happen, the smaller the fraction.
o The more likely an event is to happen, the larger the fraction.
 To solve a probability problem identify the event, find the
number of outcomes of the event, then use probability law:

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒


𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒
3.1 Solved examples:

 Example 1: Example 2:

The diagram shows a fair spinner. fair six sided dice is rolled once. Mark the
probability of each of the following events
a) Which color is the arrow least likely to land
onto the probability scale.
on?
a) The dice lands on an even number.
b) Mark the probability scale with an arrow
to show the probability of landing on b) The dice lands on the number 5
white. Label the arrow, W.
c) The dice lands on a number less than 5.
c) Mark the probability scale with an arrow
to show the probability of landing on blue.
Label the arrow, B.
4.Equally likely outcomes:
 An outcome is a possible result of an experiment or trial.
4.1 Equally likely events are those events which have an equal probability of occurring.
For example:
o When we toss an unbiased coin, the probability of getting a heads is 1/2 and the
probability of getting a tails is 1/2. So, it is an equally likely event
o When we roll a die, the probability of getting a one is 1/6, P(2) = 1/6, P(3) =
1/6…P(6)=1/6. Thus, this is also an equally likely event.
Questions : (CB page 154)
1.Each letter of the word MATHEMATICS is written on a separate card.

Jake picks one card at random. What is the probability that the letter is:
a)M b) not T c) a vowel d) not a vowel e) X f) in the word CHANCE?
5.Mutually exclusive outcomes:
 Mutually exclusive events are two events that cannot take place at the same time
and they don’t have nothing in common(e.g. going up and down a single elevator
simultaneously).
For example:
o you cannot be at home and at school at the same time. Either you are at school or
at home.
o You win this year’s Nobel Prize in Physics and Someone else wins this year’s Nobel
Prize in Physics.
Questions :
1. Jessica throws a normal six-sided dice. Here are four different outcomes.
A: an even number B: an odd number C: more than 5 D: less than 4
a) Which outcome is least likely?
b) Write down three different pairs of mutually exclusive outcomes.
5.Estimating probabilities

Theoretical probabilities Experimental probabilities


 Probabilities found by using  Happen when we cannot assume
equally likely outcomes are that the two outcomes are equally
likely or not.
theoretical probabilities .
 Equally likely outcomes cannot be
 Theoretical probabilities do not used to find the probabilities of
depend on an experiment and event happened.so we have to do
they do not change . an experiment.
 Example: the outcomes of tossing  P(event occurring) = (Number of
a coin , either heads or tails are observed occurrences of the
event)/(Total number of
equally likely both will be 0.5 . observations)

 Example : course book page 158 Q2


There are 320 students in a school. 16 come to school by car. 96 walk
to school. Estimate the probability that a particular student:
a) arrives by car . b) walks to school . c) does not walk to school.
d) does not walk or come by car

 Answer: total number of observations =320


 a) arrives by car : 16 students came by car , so estimate of this event
=16/320= 0.05=5%
 b) walks to school:96 walk to school, so 96/320=0.3 = 30%
 c) does not walk to school (320-96=224) so 224/320=0.7=70%
 d) does not walk or come by car(224-16=208) so 208/320=0.65=65%
Do not forget that theoretical probabilities and experimental probabilities may
be different.
End of unit review :course book page 160
 At the end students must know word such as likely , unlikely to be used to
describe results.
 The probability of an outcome is number from 0 to 1 .
 Probabilities can be calculated using equally likely outcomes.
 Probabilities can be estimated using experimental data
Thank you 

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