Sirgut Tesfaye Simulation Project
Sirgut Tesfaye Simulation Project
1. Background
Discrete-Event simulation (DES) is a model of physical system that has changes at precise points in
simulated time.
Patients arriving at an outpatient Department to be served by healthcare professionals can be taken as
DES. Alamura Health Center is one of the public health centers located at Hawassa city.
1.1 Objectives
To develop discrete-event simulation model Hawassa Riferal hospital
Specific objective
To determine the waiting arrival time and service time of patients at the outpatient Department of
hawassa referral hospital
TO model suitable queuing system by using simulation technique.
1.1 Key Components of DES
key components of Discrete-Event simulation of Public Health Center are:
Time management at the outpatient Departmentis important especially to the patient with bad
injures and diagnose with critical illness. There are two most common factors cited that impact
patient flow and department load in the public health center; (i) patient arrival rate and (ii) in-public
health center flow. These factors affect longer waiting time that will caused patients to be
dissatisfied. Although the patient has an appointment with the doctor, the long waiting time has made
the patient feel bored and depressed. Additionally, long wait times lead to patient forgoing
scheduling appointments, increase no shows, and limit access to care for patients who really need
it. Nonetheless, the most paradoxical situation emerges are; longer waiting time, yet capacity is
underutilized.
2. Queuing system of Patient Flow
A basic queuing system is a service system where “customers” arrive to a bank of “servers” and
require some service from one of them. “Customer” is referring to the entity that waiting for the
service and that entity is not necessarily human. Similarly, a "server" is the person or thing that
provides the service. In the case of public health center, a queuing system can be described as
patient’s arrival time for the service, waiting for service if it is not immediate, utilizing the service,
and leaving the system after being served. A queuing system is characterized by arrival pattern
of those requiring service, service pattern of servers, queue discipline, system capacity, number
of service channels, and number of service stages.
Queue discipline refers to the order in which customers are processed. The assumption that service
is provided on a first-come, first-served basis is the most commonly encountered rule. This
outpatient department operates with two types of patients: appointment and nonappointment
patients. Non-appointment patients include new patients who first arrive at the hospital, walk-in
patients and no-show patients who missed their appointments. All appointment patients must refer
to the reception deck to identify the appointed clinic and check if there is any laboratory test
required. Meanwhile, all non-appointment patients, need to pass registration process. After all
consultation process completed, patients may get drugs from a pharmacy before leaving the public
health center.
The process of patient flow at selected Public Health Center is recorded based on the flowchart
as illustrated in Figure 1.
3.0 Methodology
This case-study was carried out at one of the Public Health Center located at Hawassa city. The
method of this project was a descriptive-analytical study focused at the outpatient public health
center. Collection data are from the patients who have registered the medical checked at the
outpatient counter until the pharmacy counter. We started design the pre-planned form to collect
data of patient at the outpatient counter. Once the data collection finished, we then calculated
and analyzed the data using Microsoft Excel. Based on the calculated data, the queuing system
of current situation was modeled and simulated using the software ARENA. Descriptive analysis and
observations study were used to determine the time taken of patients from the registration until
seen by pharmacist at the outpatient clinic. In order to get better results, as this case reconfirmed
the patient’s process flow with the center management together with on-site observation few times
to get the correct flow. The collected data was the arrival time (λ) which was the number of patients
entered to the outpatient counter during standard study time (30munites intervals) and the
service time (µ) which was the time period of giving services to each patient per 30 minutes.
Data were collected randomly among the patients without any specific patient classification of
treatment. This is because the case-study focuses on determining the waiting time of patients at
outpatient counter. Data was collected via record the waiting time of patients in the pre-planned form
at the outpatient clinic. The data required to develop the patient flow as follows:
1. Patients arrival times
2. Service time at the registration counter (new patient registration counter and appointed patient
registration counter). Service time is the time taken at the beginning of the service until the end of
the service for each patient.
3. Service time at the pre-consultation room.
4. Service time at the consultation room.
5. Service time at the pharmacy counter.
6. The number of patients (at each phase).
7. The number of doctors, staffs involved at each phase.
Lengths of the intervals between arrivals are independently and identically distributed and
described by a continuous density function. It is assumed that inter-arrival times and service
times follow the exponential distribution or equivalently that the arrival rate and service rate
follow a Poisson distribution. Description of different variables and characteristics used in these
cases are as follows:
There are six doctors allocated or scheduled for outpatient’s department per week but only five
to three doctors available per day. Meanwhile, several nurses are scheduled for working at the
department, but two or one nurse allocated at the registration counter, pre-consultation room and
pharmacy counter based on the schedule in Table 1. However, the meaning number of servers at
registration counter from 4.00 pm to 5.00 pm and 5.00 pm to 6.00 pm are two and one server
respectively.
4.2.2 Simulation Results
4.2.2.1 Average Waiting Time in Queue
Waiting time is the time required for a patient to wait for the service needed. Table 2 shows the
results of simulation model obtained from SIMAN reports which indicates the existence of a long
waiting time on Monday with an average of 87.936 minutes per patient which is often a common
complaint by patients than in the other days. Whereas the lowest average waiting time is on Friday
of 5.454 minutes. Thus, the maximum average waiting time for received service is 144.4848
minutes per patient whereas the average waiting time in queue is 54.2952 minutes. Table 2:
Average waiting time in queue
Day Time (minutes) Maximum Time
(minutes)
Monday 87.936 207.624
Tuesday 81.642 197.886
Wednesday 61.236 149.79
Thursday 35.208 137.922
Friday 5.454 29.202
AVERAGE 54.2952 144.4848
∑𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒
Average service time=
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑟𝑠
In Out In System
The results obtained from the ARENA simulation stated that the average waiting time of patient
have to wait before get the treatment is 54.295 minutes whereas the maximum waiting time is
144.48 minutes. Then, the average service time for patient get the treatment is 13.48 minutes
whereas the maximum service time for several patients is 23.724 minutes. Therefore, the average
total time spend by patients in outpatient department is 68.315 minutes and maximum total time
in system is 156.718 minutes. Total average number of patients arrived at outpatient counter is 327
patients per day. Thus, based on the result average total number of patients gives the utilization
of server at outpatient department is 78.84%.
4.3 Discussion
4.3.1 Verification and Validation
After analyzed the simulation result, the average waiting time and service time for simulated output
is compared to the historical data output obtained from outpatient department clinic records. The
process is known as verification and validation process. This process needs to be done to ensure
the simulation model developed is valid and acceptable before proceed to the next steps.
Verification seeks to show that the computer program performs as expected and intended.
Validation on the other hand, questions whether the model behavior validly represents that of the
real-world system being simulated. A commonly used validation tolerance is 10% which means
that the output obtained from simulation model must not exceeds 10% of the real system output.
If the differences are less than 10%, which is within the standard total differences that can be
allowed, a simulation model is considered as acceptable and valid. Therefore, the comparison on
this case is valid and acceptable with the total arrival of patients are not less than 10%.
IEL student
C, L., & Appa Iyer, S. (2013). , “Application of queueing theory in health care: A
literature review,” Oper. Res. Heal. Care, vol. 2, no. 1–2, pp. 25–39, 2013.
Johnson, J. (2008). "Simple Queuing Theory Tools You Can Use in Healthcare." A
Presentation at the Hospital Information Management Systems Society, February
2008, 1–6.