REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE 2005-06

DEVELOPMENT OF FINANCIAL MARKETS AND ROLE OF THE CENTRAL BANK

RESERVE BANK OF INDIA

The findings, views, and conclusions expressed in this Report are entirely those of the contributing staff of the Department of Economic Analysis and Policy (DEAP) and should not necessarily be interpreted as the official views of the Reserve Bank of India.

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Reserve Bank of India 2006 All rights reserved. Reproduction is permitted provided an acknowledgement of the source is made. ISSN 0972-8759

Published by A. Karunagaran for the Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai-400 001 and designed and printed by him at Alco Corporation, A-2/72, Shah & Nahar Industrial Estate, Lower Parel, Mumbai-400 013

FOREWORD
Over the last 10 years, many emerging market economies have made significant efforts to strengthen their domestic financial systems, including various segments of the financial market. A well-functioning financial market is a key to sustained economic growth. Financial markets also facilitate effective implementation of monetary policy by serving as a link in the transmission mechanism between monetary policy and the real economy. In India, although financial markets have existed for a long time, they remained relatively underdeveloped vis-a-vis some emerging market economies for a variety of reasons. Concerted efforts to develop the financial markets towards global standards began in the early 1990s as a part of broader financial sector reforms. Reforms in the financial markets encompassed all segments - the money market, the credit market, the government securities market, the foreign exchange market, the equity market and the private corporate debt market. The development of financial markets has been pursued for bringing about a transformation in the structure, efficiency and stability of markets. Some of the major measures that have been initiated to develop the financial markets include market determined pricing of various financial assets, removal of restrictions on participants, introduction of electronic trading platforms and introduction of new instruments. All these measures have had a significant impact on the structure and efficiency of financial markets. However, financial markets in India are not yet fully developed. There are several issues that remain to be addressed. The need for developed financial markets has never been felt so strong as at this point of time for several reasons such as sustaining the present high rate of economic growth; improving transmission mechanism of monetary policy; developing a diversified financial system and maximising gains from globalisation while minimising its costs. Ever since the introduction of theme based Report on Currency and Finance in 1998-99, the Department of Economic Analysis and Policy has released seven Reports encompassing several important contemporary issues concerning central banking and macroeconomic issues relating to India. The current Report is in continuation of the themes addressed in the previous Reports and attempts to address the issue of financial market development. An effort has been made in this Report to cover the vast canvas of financial market operations as they have emerged in India. The thrust of the Report is to consider approaches for making financial markets in India more developed, efficient and integrated in the light of our own experience gained so far and keeping in view the international best practices, while recognising country context, especially that India is an emerging market economy. The pace of change in financial market development will necessarily have to be guided by the predominant imperative of maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability, while enabling growth inclusive. The Report has been prepared in the Department of Economic Analysis and Policy with the active involvement of operational departments. The Report has been prepared under the guidance and supervision of Janak Raj, Adviser. R.K.Pattnaik, Adviser was also involved. The core team involved in the drafting of the Report comprised Rajiv Ranjan, Dhritidyuti Bose, R.K Jain, Rajan Goyal, Muneesh Kapur, A.Karunagaran, Kumudini Hajra, M.Ramaiah, Sharat Dhal, Deepa S Raj, Indranil Bhattacharyya, Binod B Bhoi, Satyananda Sahoo, Siddhartha Sanyal, Atri Mukherjee, S.Suraj, S.M.Lokare, Sangita Misra, Jai Chander, Raj Rajesh, V.Dhanya, Harendra Behera, Amar Nath Yadav, A.K.Shukla, Pallavi Chavan, Samir Behera, Rajeev Jain, B.S.Misra, Sunil Kumar and Indrani Manna.

Dr. P.D.Jeromi, who unfortunately passed away while the work of preparing the Report was in progress, made a valuable contribution. The team benefited from the significant suggestions from V. Leeladhar, Shyamala Gopinath, Usha Thorat, V.K. Sharma, K.Kanagasabapathy and G.S.Bhati. Notable contributions were made at various stages of preparation of the Report by officers from the operational departments, viz., Himadri Bhattacharya, Prasant Saran, Salim Gangadharan, Michael D. Patra, Chandan Sinha, G. Mahalingam, Mridul Saggar, Himanshu Joshi, Partha Ray, T. Rabishankar, T.B.B. Verma, Deepak Kumar and Mohua Roy. These apart, impressive contributions by operational departments, viz., Monetary Policy Department, Department of Banking Operations and Development, Financial Markets Department, Foreign Exchange Department, Department of External Investments and Operations are highly appreciated. Almost every Division in the Department of Economic Analysis and Policy contributed in the preparation of the chapter on Recent Economic Developments (Chapter II). I hope that the analysis presented and suggestions made in the Report would guide us in our endeavour to further develop the financial markets. I take this opportunity to place on record my deep appreciation of the professional skills and utmost dedication of the officials of the Department of Economic Analysis and Policy, without which it would not have been possible to bring out this Report.

May 24, 2007

Rakesh Mohan Deputy Governor

CONTENTS
Page No. FOREWORD I. THEME OF THE REPORT ......................................................................................... Mobilising Resources for Sustaining Higher Growth .................................................. Financial Markets and Monetary Policy ..................................................................... Diversified Financial System ...................................................................................... Financial Integration and Financial Markets ............................................................... II. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ................................................................. Real Sector ................................................................................................................. Fiscal Situation ........................................................................................................... Monetary and Credit Situation .................................................................................... Financial Markets ....................................................................................................... Banks and Financial Institutions ................................................................................. External Sector ........................................................................................................... Overall Assessment .................................................................................................... III. MONEY MARKET ...................................................................................................... Role of the Money Market Theoretical Underpinnings ............................................ Operating Procedures and Money Market International Experience ...................... Money Market in India Up to the Mid-1980s ........................................................... Evolution of Reserve Banks Liquidity Management .................................................. Money Market Developments Mid-1980s Onwards ................................................ The Way Forward ....................................................................................................... Summing Up ............................................................................................................... Exhibit III.1 : Monetary Policy Transmission through Interest Rate Channel ............. Annex III.1 : Operating Procedures of Liquidity Management in Developed Countries ................................................................................................ Annex III.2 : Operating Procedures of Liquidity Management in Emerging Market Economies ................................................................................. Annex III.3 : Structure of Money Markets ................................................................... 1 to 8 2 3 4 5 9-66 10 21 30 41 52 55 64 67-118 69 73 80 81 91 106 108 70 110 111 112 (Contd...) I

Page No. IV. CREDIT MARKET ...................................................................................................... Significance of the Credit Market ............................................................................... Institutional Structure of the Credit Market in India .................................................... Policy Developments in the Credit Market in India ..................................................... Trends in Credit The 1990s and Onwards ............................................................... The Way Forward ....................................................................................................... Summing Up ............................................................................................................... Exhibit IV. I : Credit Market Structure .......................................................................... Annex IV.1 : Menu of Policy Options in Responding to Rapid Credit Growth ............ Annex IV.2 : Supervisory Measures to Manage Key Risks of Rapid Credit Growth .. V. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET .................................................................. Role of the Government Securities Market ................................................................ International Experience ............................................................................................ Government Securities Market in India Policy Developments ................................ Government Securities Market in India: Analysis and Assessment ........................... The Way Forward ....................................................................................................... Summing Up ............................................................................................................... Annex V.1 : Reforms in the Government Securities Market ....................................... VI. FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET ............................................................................. Exchange Rate Regimes in Emerging Markets ......................................................... Indian Foreign Exchange Market: A Historical Perspective ....................................... Foreign Exchange Market Structure .......................................................................... Foreign Exchange Market: An Assessment ............................................................... Behaviour of the Foreign Exchange Market in the Post-Unification Period ............... Issues Relating to Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market ........ The Way Forward ....................................................................................................... Summing Up ............................................................................................................... Exhibit VI.1 : De Facto Exchange Rate Regime of Fund Members ........................... 119-163 120 121 124 129 157 160 123 162 163 164-210 165 169 179 193 202 207 209 211-257 212 216 220 228 236 248 253 256 214 (Contd...) II

Page No. VII. EQUITY AND CORPORATE DEBT MARKET .......................................................... Equity Market .............................................................................................................. Private Corporate Debt Market .................................................................................. The Way Forward ....................................................................................................... Summing Up ............................................................................................................... Annex VII.1 : Characteristics of Trading Frameworks for Corporate Bonds ............... VIII. FINANCIAL MARKET INTEGRATION ...................................................................... Concept and Dimensions of Financial Market Integration ......................................... Policy Measures Enabling Market Integration in India ............................................... Domestic Financial Markets Integration in India ........................................................ Indias International Financial Integration ................................................................... The Way Forward ....................................................................................................... Summing Up ............................................................................................................... IX. OVERALL ASSESSMENT ......................................................................................... Money Market ............................................................................................................. Credit Market .............................................................................................................. Government Securities Market ................................................................................... Foreign Exchange Market .......................................................................................... Equity and Corporate Debt Market ............................................................................. Summing Up ............................................................................................................... 258-284 258 271 279 282 284 285-312 286 289 289 301 308 312 313-322 314 315 317 318 319 320

SELECT REFERENCES ............................................................................................

I to XVIII

III

LIST OF BOX ITEMS

Box No. III.1 III.2 III.3 III.4 III.5 IV.1 IV.2 IV.3 IV.4 IV.5 IV.6 IV.7 IV.8 IV.9 IV.10 IV.11 IV.12 V.1 V.2 V.3 V.4 V.5 V.6 V.7 V.8 V.9 VI.1 VI.2 Title Role of the Money Market in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism ............... Liquidity Adjustment Facility ................................................................................ The Interface between Monetary Policy Announcements and Financial Market Behaviour ................................................................................. Market Microstructure: Issues in Money Market Liquidity ................................... Development of a Short-Term Yield Curve Some Issues ................................. The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy .............................................................. Credit Market Reforms ........................................................................................ Asset Securitisation ............................................................................................. Credit Information Bureaus ................................................................................. Credit Derivatives ................................................................................................ Policies Relating to the Priority Sector, Micro-finance and Credit Cards in Rural Areas ................................................................................ Credit Flow to Small Scale and Medium Industries Recent Measures ............ Household Credit Market International Experience ......................................... Rapid Increase in Credit Prudential Measures ................................................ Determinants of Bank Credit ............................................................................... Credit Boom: Analytical Issues ........................................................................... Credit Boom and Monetary Policy ....................................................................... Role of Government Securities Yield Curve as a Public Good ........................... Government Debt Structure and Monetary Conditions ....................................... Principles of a Deep and Liquid Government Securities Market ........................ Auction Pricing Uniform versus Multiple ......................................................... Reserve Bank and the Government Securities Market Legal Framework ....... Mandated Investment in Government Securities ................................................ Revised Guidelines for Primary Dealers ............................................................. Risk Management Practices adopted by the CCIL ............................................. Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal of Securities (STRIPS) .. Exchange Rate Regimes and Monetary Policy in EMEs .................................... Recommendations of the Expert Group on Foreign Exchange Markets in India ..................................................................... Page No. 72 85 89 90 94 122 126 127 127 128 133 140 144 145 149 151 152 166 168 169 173 180 182 184 191 205 213 219 (Contd...) IV

Box No. VI.3 VI.4 VI.5 VI.6 VI.7 VII.1 VII.2 VII.3 VII.4 VIII.1 VIII.2 VIII.3 VIII.4 VIII.5

Title Measures Initiated to Develop the Foreign Exchange Market in India ............... Foreign Exchange Derivative Instruments in India ............................................. Derivatives Market: Comprehensive Guidelines ................................................. Policy Measures Undertaken in the Wake of Asian Crisis .................................. Invoicing Pattern of Trade and Exchange Rate Pass-Through ........................... Does Stock Market Promote Economic Growth in India? ................................... Private Placement Market in India ...................................................................... Recommendations of the High Level Expert Committee on Corporate Debt and Securitisation ...................................................................... Development of Corporate Bond Market Experiences of Select Economies ................................................................... Theory of Financial Market Integration ............................................................... Benefits and Risks of Financial Integration ......................................................... Measures Enabling Financial Market Integration in India ................................... Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency ................................................................... Initiatives on Regional Integration in Asia ...........................................................

Page No. 220 223 224 239 245 260 273 276 278 287 288 290 298 305

LIST OF CHARTS
Chart No. II.1 II.2 II.3 II.4 II.5 II.6 II.7 II.8 II.9 II.10 II.11 II.12 II.13 II.14 II.15 II.16 II.17 II.18 II.19 II.20 II.21 II.22 II.23 II.24 II.25 III.1 III.2 III.3 Title Annual Growth Rate of GDP at Factor Cost (At 1999-2000 Prices) ................... Saving by Institutional Sources (At 1999-2000 Prices) ....................................... Gross Capital Formation by Institutional Sources (At 1999-2000 Prices) .......... Weighted Average Interest Rate on State Governments Market Borrowing ...... Utilisation of WMA and Overdraft by States (Weekly Average) .......................... Investment in 14-day Intermediate Treasury Bills by the State Governments .... Broad Money Growth (y-o-y) ............................................................................... Non-food Credit ................................................................................................... Consumer Price Inflation ..................................................................................... International Commodity Prices .......................................................................... Wholesale Price Inflation ..................................................................................... Movement in Key Market Rates .......................................................................... Movement of Primary Yields of Treasury Bills ..................................................... Government Securities Turnover and Yield Curve .............................................. Rupee vis-a-vis Major Currencies ....................................................................... Movement in Forward Premia ............................................................................. Trends in Sectoral Stock Indices ......................................................................... World Output Growth ........................................................................................... Growth in World Trade Volume and Prices .......................................................... Movement of Invisibles Surplus .......................................................................... Current Account Balance .................................................................................... Net Inflows/Outflows by Foreign Institutional Investors ...................................... NRI Deposits Outstanding ............................................................................... Accretion to Foreign Exchange Reserves ........................................................... Currency Composition of External Debt ............................................................. LAF Corridor and the Call Rate ........................................................................... Reserve Banks Open Market Operations ........................................................... Liquidity Adjustment Facility and the Call Rate ................................................... Page No. 10 13 13 29 29 30 33 34 37 37 39 43 46 47 49 49 51 55 56 60 61 62 62 63 64 86 86 88 (Contd...) VI

Chart No. III.4 III.5 III.6 III.7 III.8 III.9 III.10 III.11 III.12 IV.1 IV.2 IV.3 IV.4 IV.5 IV.6 IV.7 IV.8 IV.9 IV.10 IV.11 IV.12 IV.13 IV.14 IV.15 IV.16 IV.17 IV.18 IV.19 IV.20

Title Overnight Interest Rates ..................................................................................... Call Money Rate .................................................................................................. Yields on Treasury Bills ....................................................................................... Commercial Paper ............................................................................................... Certificates of Deposit ......................................................................................... OIS and G-Sec Yields ......................................................................................... MIFOR SWAP and G-Sec Yields ........................................................................ Monetary Policy and Swap Rates ....................................................................... Money Market Rates ........................................................................................... Total Assets of Financial Intermediaries-Relative Shares .................................. Bank Credit and Non-food Credit Growth ........................................................... Sectoral GDP and Credit ..................................................................................... Short-term Credit Intensity of the Industrial Sector ............................................ Types of Borrowings by the Private Corporate Sector ....................................... Trends in Credit to the SSI Sector ....................................................................... Credit Intensity of the SSI Sector ........................................................................ Share of Personal Loans Accounts/Amount in Total Accounts/Amounts of Scheduled Commercial Banks ......................................... Trends in Housing Loans ..................................................................................... Share of Personal Loans in Total Credit .............................................................. Share of Medium and Long-term Loans in Total Credit ...................................... Incremental Credit-Deposit Ratio ........................................................................ Credit and Investment ......................................................................................... SLR Investments by Scheduled Commercial Banks ........................................... Credit-GDP Ratio ................................................................................................ Non-performing Assets of Scheduled Commercial Banks .................................. Incremental Accretion to NPAs ............................................................................ Cyclical Component as Percentage of Actual ..................................................... Policy Rates and Lending Rates of Banks .......................................................... Lending Rate and Yield on Government Securities ............................................

Page No. 91 95 98 100 101 103 104 104 105 124 130 132 138 138 139 140 141 142 142 145 145 146 147 147 147 147 150 154 155 (Contd...)

VII

Chart No. V.1 V.2 V.3 V.4 V.5 V.6 V.7 V.8 V.9 V.10 V.11 V.12 V.13 V.14 VI.1 VI.2 VI.3 VI.4 VI.5 VI.6 VI.7 VI.8 VI.9 VI.10 VI.11 VII.1 VII.2 VII.3 VII.4

Title Size of Government Securities Market Select Countries ................................. Weighted Average Maturity of Central Government Securities .......................... Yield and Maturity of Central Government Dated Securities .............................. Share of Re-issues in the Total Issuance of Central Government Securities ..... Yield and Annual Turnover (market value) .......................................................... Secondary Market Outright Transactions Central Government Securities ...... Holding Pattern of Central and State Governments Securities .......................... Investment in SLR Securities by Scheduled Commercial Banks ........................ Yield Curve Movement SGL Transactions ........................................................ Movements in Yield Spread ................................................................................. Yield and Maturity of Central Government Dated Securities Primary Auctions ....... Monthly Yields and Turnover in Central Government Securities ......................... Trading Volumes in When Issued Market ............................................................ Yields on Various Government Securities Market Instruments ........................... Trends in Rupee-Dollar Exchange Rate .............................................................. Turnover in Indian Foreign Exchange Market ..................................................... Scheduled Commercial Banks-Profit from Foreign Exchange Transactions as a Proportion of Total Profit .............................................................................. Foreign Exchange Turnover - Segment-wise ...................................................... Inter-bank and Merchant Transactions in Foreign Exchange Market ................. Bid-Ask Spread (Re-USD) in the Spot Foreign Exchange Market ..................... Movement of Forward Premia and Rupee-Dollar Exchange Rate ...................... Transmission from the Call Money Market to the Forward Market ..................... Movement of Indian Rupee in the Spot, Forward and NDF Markets .................. The Relationship between Demand-Supply Mismatch and RBI Intervention ..... Sterilisation Operations of the Reserve Bank ..................................................... Investor Protection Index in Select Economies ................................................... Market Capitalisation as per cent of GDP in India .............................................. Market Capitalisation as per cent of GDP in Select Economies ................................................................................................ The Turnover Ratio in Select Countries ..............................................................

Page No. 170 195 196 197 197 198 198 199 199 200 200 201 201 201 217 229 230 230 231 232 233 233 235 251 252 261 262 263 263 (Contd...)

VIII

Chart No. VII.5 VII.6 VII.7 VII.8 VII.9 VII.10 VII.11 VII.12 VII.13 VII.14 VII.15 VII.16 VII.17 VII.18 VII.19 VIII.1 VIII.2 VIII.3 VIII.4 VIII.5 VIII.6 VIII.7 VIII.8 VIII.9 VIII.10

Title Impact Cost in the Equity Market (Spot) ............................................................. Turnover in the Equity Derivatives Market at NSE .............................................. Quarterly Coefficient of Variation of BSE Sensex ............................................... Net Fund Mobilisation by Mutual Funds Scheme-wise .................................... Scheme-wise Net Assets under Management by Mutual Funds ........................ Total Assets held by Mutual Funds ..................................................................... Number of Capital Issues and Resources Raised through Public Issues .......... Ratio of New Capital Issues (NCI) to GDP and GDCF ....................................... New Capital Issues in Select Economies ............................................................ Resource Mobilisation through Euro Issues ....................................................... Gross International Equity Issuances by Select Countries ................................. Resources Raised by Indian Corporates Domestic and International Capital Markets .............................................................................. Shareholding Pattern of Companies Listed at NSE ............................................ Resource Mobilisation through Debt Issues ....................................................... Composition of Bond Market in the US ............................................................... Interest Rates and Exchange Rate in India ........................................................ Implied Interest Rate ........................................................................................... 91-day Treasury Bills Rate and 10-year G-Sec Yield .......................................... Turnover in Secondary Market for Government Securities ................................. Bond Yields .......................................................................................................... 36-Currency Trade Weighted Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) ................ Covered Interest Parity ........................................................................................ Short-term Money Market Rates ......................................................................... Aggregate Net Resource Flows to Developing and Emerging Countries ........... Net Portfolio Flows to India .................................................................................

Page No. 264 264 265 266 267 267 267 267 268 269 269 269 270 272 277 291 294 294 294 295 296 296 299 303 306

IX

LIST OF TABLES
Table No. 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.10 2.11 2.12 2.13 2.14 2.15 2.16 2.17 2.18 2.19 2.20 2.21 2.22 2.23 2.24 2.25 2.26 2.27 2.28 2.29 Title Real Gross Domestic Product ............................................................................. Quarterly Growth Rates of Gross Domestic Product .......................................... Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product, 2007-08 Forecasts for India ........... Output Growth: Cross-Country Comparison ....................................................... Gross Domestic Saving and Investment ............................................................. Saving Investment Balance .............................................................................. Cumulative Rainfall .............................................................................................. Crop-wise Targets/Achievements ........................................................................ Season-wise Agricultural Production .................................................................. Management of Foodstocks ................................................................................ Monthly Growth of IIP .......................................................................................... Growth of Manufacturing Industries (2-digit level classification) ......................... Sectoral Contribution to IIP Growth .................................................................... Growth Rate of Infrastructure Industries ............................................................. Quarterly Growth Performance of Sub-Sectors of Services ............................... Key Deficit Indicators of the Central Government ............................................... Receipts of the Centre ........................................................................................ Expenditure Pattern of the Centre ...................................................................... Financing Pattern of Gross Fiscal Deficit ............................................................ Major Deficit Indicators of the State Governments ............................................. Aggregate Receipts of the State Governments .................................................. Expenditure Pattern of the State Governments .................................................. Decomposition and Financing Pattern of Gross Fiscal Deficit of the States ...... Market Borrowings of the State Governments .................................................... Combined Liabilities and Debt-GDP Ratio .......................................................... Reserve Money ................................................................................................... Monetary Indicators ............................................................................................. Scheduled Commercial Banks Survey ................................................................ Deployment of Non-food Bank Credit ................................................................. Page No. 10 11 11 12 12 13 14 15 15 16 18 18 19 19 20 22 23 24 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 33 34 35 (Contd...)

Table No. 2.30 2.31 2.32 2.33 2.34 2.35 2.36 2.37 2.38 2.39 2.40 2.41 2.42 2.43 2.44 2.45 2.46 2.47 2.48 2.49 2.50 2.51 2.52 2.53 2.54 2.55 2.56 2.57 2.58

Title Select Sources of Funds to Industry ................................................................... Annual Consumer Price Inflation ........................................................................ Global Inflation Indicators .................................................................................... Wholesale Price Inflation in India ........................................................................ Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) in India .............................................................. Domestic Financial Markets Select Indicators ................................................. Commercial Paper Major Issuers ..................................................................... Mobilisation of Resources through the Primary Market ...................................... Net Resource Mobilisation by Mutual Funds ...................................................... Trends in Stock Markets ...................................................................................... Institutional Investments in the Stock Market ...................................................... Turnover in Derivatives Market vis--vis Cash Market in NSE ........................... Important Parameters of Select Bank Groups .................................................... Urban Co-operative Banks Select Financial Indicators ................................... Financial Institutions Select Performance Indicators ....................................... Consolidated Balance Sheets of NBFCs ............................................................ Profile of Residuary Non-Banking Companies (RNBCs) .................................... Country-wise Growth Rates ................................................................................ Global Merchandise Export Growth .................................................................... Indias Foreign Trade ........................................................................................... Indias Principal Exports ...................................................................................... Major Destinations of Indias Exports .................................................................. Indias Principal Imports ...................................................................................... Indias Current Account ....................................................................................... Capital Flows (Net) .............................................................................................. Foreign Investment Flows by Category ............................................................... Inflows under NRI Deposit Schemes .................................................................. Components of External Debt ............................................................................. Debt Indicators ....................................................................................................

Page No. 36 36 38 40 41 42 45 50 50 51 52 52 53 54 54 54 55 56 57 58 58 59 59 60 61 61 62 63 64 (Contd...)

XI

Table No. 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.10 4.11 4.12 4.13 4.14 4.15 4.16 4.17 4.18 4.19 4.20 4.21 4.22 4.23 4.24 4.25

Title Liquidity Absorptions ........................................................................................... First and Second LAF ......................................................................................... Activity in Money Market Segments .................................................................... Treasury Bills Primary Market .......................................................................... Volatility in Money Market Rates ......................................................................... Total Outstanding Credit by all Credit Institutions ............................................... Institution-wise Growth of Outstanding Credit .................................................... Distribution of Credit Category-wise Share ...................................................... Sector-wise Credit of Commercial Banks Compound Annual Growth Rate .... Distribution of Outstanding Credit of Scheduled Commercial Banks ................. Trends in Outstanding Priority Sector Advances ................................................ Progress of SHG-Bank Linkage Programme ...................................................... Progress of Kisan Credit Cards Scheme ............................................................ Non-SLR Investments of Scheduled Commercial Banks ................................... Non-Bank Sources of Funds for Industry ............................................................ Type of Credit to Industry by Banks .................................................................... Bank Credit to the Infrastructure Sector ............................................................. Performance of the SSI Sector Major Parameters ........................................... Gross NPAs of Scheduled Commercial Banks in the SSI Sector ....................... Growth and Share of Personal Loans in Total Bank Credit ................................. Composition of Household Credit Provided by Commercial Banks .................... Trends in Housing Loans Provided by Commercial Banks ................................. Non-Deposit Sources of Funds ........................................................................... Trends in Credit Growth ...................................................................................... Credit to the Private Sector ................................................................................. Number of Loan Accounts Select Countries .................................................... Commercial Bank Credit Penetration in India ..................................................... Region-wise Number of Credit Accounts per 100 persons Scheduled Commercial Banks in India ............................................................... Incidence of Indebtedness of Households in India ............................................. Debt-Asset Ratio of Households .........................................................................

Page No. 87 88 92 99 101 129 129 130 131 132 134 135 136 136 137 137 138 139 140 141 142 142 146 148 152 153 153 153 153 154 (Contd...)

XII

Table No. 4.26 4.27 4.28 4.29 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.8 6.9 6.10 6.11 6.12 6.13 6.14 6.15 6.16

Title Stress Tests: Capital Adequacy Ratio under Various Scenarios ......................... Shares of Loans Extended at Sub-BPLR Rates by Scheduled Commercial Banks ............................................................................................. Changes in the Repo Rate and Advance Rate of Scheduled Commercial Banks Intermediation Cost of Banks of Major Asian Countries ..................................... Indicators of Liquidity in Domestic Currency Government Bond Markets Select Countries .................................................................................................. Government Securities Market in India ............................................................... Outstanding Stock of Central and State Government Securities ........................ Maturity Profile of Central Government Securities Issued during the Year ......... Maturity Profile of Outstanding Stock of Central Government Securities ........... Weighted Average Interest Rate on Government Securities .............................. Role of Primary Dealers in the Government Securities Market .......................... Annual Turnover in the Government Securities Market ...................................... Correlation of Yield on 10-year Government Securities with Other Instruments ........................................................................................ Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes, 1996 - April 2006 ................................... Emerging Market Countries: Transition to More Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes .................................................................................... Authorised Dealers (Category-I) in the Foreign Exchange Market ..................... Global Foreign Exchange Market Turnover ......................................................... Traditional Foreign Exchange Market Turnover in EM Currencies - April 2004 .. Indicators of Indian Foreign Exchange Market Activity ....................................... Relative Size of the Foreign Exchange Market in India ...................................... Foreign Exchange Turnover Bank Group-wise Share ...................................... Derivatives Turnover in India ............................................................................... REER and NEER of Select Asian Countries ...................................................... Reserve Banks Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market ........................... Indias Sovereign Credit Rating by S&P, Moodys and Fitch Ratings .................. Daily Exchange Rate Volatility in Select Emerging Economies .......................... Movements of Indian Rupee - US dollar Exchange Rates ................................. Trends in External Value of Indian Rupee ........................................................... Volatility of Exchange Rates in the Global Foreign Exchange Market ................

Page No. 154 154 155 155 171 194 194 195 195 196 196 197 202 214 215 222 228 229 229 229 230 230 238 238 241 242 243 244 244 (Contd...)

XIII

Table No. 6.17 6.18 6.19 6.20 6.21 6.22 6.23 6.24 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6 7.7 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 8.10 8.11 8.12 8.13 8.14 8.15 8.16

Title Currency-wise Invoicing of Indias Exports and Imports ..................................... Cross Currency Correlation ................................................................................. Macroeconomic Parameters of the United States .............................................. Savings-Investment Gap in Emerging Economies .............................................. Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention ........................................................... Major Findings of Recent Studies on Central Bank Intervention ........................ Indias Capital Flows: Composition ..................................................................... Extent of RBI Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market ............................... Liquidity in the Stock Market in India .................................................................. Top Five Equity Derivative Exchanges in the World ............................................ Volatility in Select World Stock Markets .............................................................. Share of Various Instruments in Gross Financial Savings of the Household Sector in India ............................................................................. Pattern of Sources of Funds for Indian Corporates ............................................ Size of Domestic Corporate Debt Market and other Sources of Local Currency Funding ...................................................................................... Turnover of Debt Securities ................................................................................. Depth of Financial Markets in India - Average Daily Turnover ............................ Correlation Among Major Financial Markets ....................................................... Financial Market Volatility .................................................................................... Interest Rate Spread over the Reverse Repo Rate ............................................ Global Trade Openness ....................................................................................... Intra-regional Trade Share in Asia ....................................................................... Global Current Account Balance ......................................................................... Gross Foreign Assets and Liabilities ................................................................... Capital Flows to Developing and Emerging Economies ..................................... Volatility of Capital Flows ..................................................................................... Select Indicators of Indias Openness ................................................................. Indias Trade and Capital Accounts ..................................................................... FDI Openness : Select Countries ........................................................................ Regional Stock Market Return Correlation ......................................................... Regional Money Market Correlation ................................................................... Regional Bond Market Correlation ......................................................................

Page No. 246 246 247 247 249 250 251 252 263 265 265 266 268 274 274 291 293 299 299 301 302 302 302 303 304 304 306 306 307 307 308

XIV

ABBREVIATIONS
ABF ABS ACD ACU ADR ADs AFS AGL AIBP AIFI ALD ALM AMC AML ARC ASEAN ATM Asian Bond Fund Asset-Backed Security Asia Cooperation Dialogue Additional Competitive Underwriting American Depository Receipt Authorised Dealers Available for Sale Aggregate Gap Limit Accelerated Irrigation Benefit Programme All-India Financial Institution Aggregate Liability to Depositors Asset-Liability Management Asset Management Company Anti-Money Laundering Asset Reconstruction Company Association of South East Asian Nations Automated Teller Machine Bank of Thailand Automated High Value Transfer Network Bond, Currency and Derivatives Bank Credit Bills of Exchange Bond Electronic Exchange Board for Financial Supervision Bond Information and Dissemination System Bank for International Settlements Bilateral Investment Treaties Bank of Japan NET CIB CIBIL CIP CLF CLN CLO CP BPO BSE CAD CAPM CAS CBLOs CBO CCC CCDM CCIL CCP CCS CDO CDR CDs CDS CENVAT CFMS CGS BPLR Benchmark Prime Lending Rate Business Process Outsourcing The Bombay Stock Exchange Limited Current Account Deficit Capital Assets Pricing Model Credit Authorisation Scheme Collateralised Borrowing and Lending Obligations Collateralised Bond Obligation Credit Counseling Canada Credit Counseling and Debt Management Clearing Corporation of India Ltd. Central Counter Party Credit Counseling of Singapore Collateralised Debt Obligation Corporate Debt Restructuring Certificates of Deposits Credit Default Swaps Central Value Added Tax Centralised Funds Management System Commonwealth Government Securities Capital Indexed Bond Credit Information Bureau (India) Limited Covered Interest Parity Collateralised Lending Facility Credit Linked Notes Collateralised Loan Obligations Commercial Paper

BAHTNET BCD BCR BE BEX BFS BIDS BIS BITs BOJ NET

XV

CPI CPI-IW CPSS CPSUs CRAR CRR CRT CDSL CSGL CSO CSRC CV DAD DCCB DFHI DFI DMO DRT DTL DTTs DvP ECB ECBs ECS EEFC EFP EFT

Consumer Price Index Consumer Price Index for (Industrial Workers) Committee on Payment and Settlement Systems Central Public Sector Undertakings Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets Ratio Cash Reserve Ratio Credit Risk Transfer Central Depository Services (India) Limited Constituents Subsidiary General Ledger Central Statistical Organisation Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission Coefficient of Variation Deposit Accounts Department District Central Cooperative Bank Discount and Finance House of India Development Finance Institution Debt Management Office Debt Recovery Tribunal Demand and Time Liabilities Double Taxation Treaties Delivery versus Payment European Central Bank External Commercial Borrowings Electronic Clearing Service Exchange Earners Foreign Currency External Finance Premium Electronic Fund Transfer

EMEAP EMEs EMU ET FAST FCA FCAC FCCBs FCNR (A) FCNR (B) FDI FEDAI FEMA FERA FESFBs FFMCs FIDF FIIs FIMMDA

Executives Meeting of East Asia Pacific Central Banks Emerging Market Economies European Monetary Union Exchange Traded Fully Automated System for Issuing /Tendering Foreign Cureency Assets Fuller Capital Account Convertibility Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Accounts) Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Banks) Foreign Direct Investment Foreign Exchange Dealers Association of India Foreign Exchange Management Act Foreign Exchange Regulations Act Foreign Exchange Stabilisation Fund Bonds Full Fledged Money Changers Financial Institutions Development Fund Foreign Institutional Investors Fixed Income Money Market and Derivatives Association of India Fast Moving Consumer Goods Financial Institutions Federal Open Market Committee Forward Rate Agreements Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act

FMCG FIs FOMC FRAs

FRBM Act

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FRBs FRL FRLs GATS GCC GDCF GDP GDR GDS GEMM GFD HFT HPEC HTM IAS IBA IBPCs ICDs IDBI IDR IFC IFCI IIAs IIBI IIP ILAF

Floating Rate Bonds Full Reservoir Level Fiscal Responsibility Legislations General Agreement on Trade and Services General Credit Card Gross Domestic Capital Formation Gross Domestic Product Global Depository Receipt Gross Domestic Saving Gilt-Edged Market Makers Gross Fiscal Deficit Held for Trading High Powered Expert Committee Held to Maturity Integrated Accounting System Indian Banks Association Inter-Bank Participation Certificates Inter Corporate Deposits Industrial Development Bank of India Indian Depository Receipt International Finance Corporation Industrial Finance Corporation of India International Investment Agreements Industrial Investment Bank of India Index of Industrial Production Interim Liquidity Adjustment Facility

IMD IMDs IMF INFINET INR IOC IOMA IOSCO IPAs IPF IPO IRDA

India Meteorological Department India Millennium Deposits International Monetary Fund Indian Financial Network Indian Rupees Indian Oil Corporation International Options Markets Association International Organisation of Securities Commissions Issuing and Paying Agents Investor Protection Fund Initial Public Offer Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India Interest Rate Futures Interest Rate Swap International Securities Market Association Information Technology Information Technology Enabled Services Japanese Government Bonds Joint Liability Group Japanese Securities Dealers Association Kisan Credit Card Korean Treasury Bonds Know Your Customer Liquidity Adjustment Facility Liberalised Exchange Rate Management System London Inter-Bank Offered Rate Life Insurance Corporation Lender of Last Resort

IRFs IRS ISMA IT ITES JGBs JLG JSDA KCC KTBs KYC LAF LERMS LIBOR LIC LOLR

XVII

LOOP LPA LPG LTCCS LTO M3 MAS MBS MCAP MCI MFI MGSs MIBOR MIFOR MME MMIs MMMFs MNSB MoU MPBF MSS MTM MUC NABARD NASDAQ

Law of One Price Long Period Average Liquefied Petroleum Gas Long Term Cooperative Credit Structure Long-Term Operations Broad Money Monetary Authority of Singapore Mortgage Backed Securities Market Capitalisation Monetary Conditions Index Micro Finance Institution Malaysian Government Securities Mumbai Inter-Bank Offered Rate Mumbai Inter-bank Forward Offered Rate Mature Market Economies Money Market Instruments Money Market Mutual Funds Multilateral Net Settlement Batch Memorandum of Understanding Maximum Permissible Bank Finance Market Stabilisation Scheme Mark to Market Minimum Underwriting Commitment National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System National Association of Software and Services

NASSD

National Association of Software and Services Department Net Bank Credit Non-Banking Financial Companies National Council for Applied Economic Research National Calamity Contingency Fund Negotiable Certificates of Deposits Net Domestic Assets Non Deliverable Forward Negotiated Dealing System Negotiated Dealing SystemOrder Matching Net Demand and Time Liabilities National Exchange for Automated Trading Nominal Effective Exchange Rate Net Foreign Assets Non-Food Credit Non-Government Organisation Net Owned Funds Non-Performing Assets Non-Performing Loan Non-Resident External Non-Resident Indians National Securities Depository Limited National Stock Exchange of India Limited National Settlement System National Small Savings Fund

NBC NBFCs NCAER NCCF NCDs NDA NDF NDS NDS-OM NDTL NEAT NEER NFA NFC NGO NOF NPAs NPL NRE NRIs NSDL NSE NSS NSSF

NASSCOM

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NSSO NTR OD ODA OECD OIS OLS OMOs OPEC OTC OTCEI OWS P&L PACS PCARDB

National Sample Survey Organisation Non-tax Revenues Overdrafts Official Development Assistance Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development Overnight Index Swap Ordinary Least Square Open Market Operations Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Over-the-Counter Over-the-Counter Exchange of India Other Welfare Schemes Profit & Loss Primary Agricultural Credit Society Primary Cooperative and Agriculture Rural Development Bank Participation Certificates Primary Deficit Primary Dealers Association of India Public Debt Office Primary Dealers Persons of Indian Origin Plant Load Factor Prime Lending Rate Purchasing Power Parity Post Shipment Credit denominated in Foreign Currency Public Sector Undertaking Pass-Through Certificate

RD REER RIBs RIDF RIP RITS RMDS RNBCs RRBs RTGS RTP SAARC SACP

Revenue Deficit Real Effective Exchange Rate Resurgent India Bonds Rural Infrastructure Development Fund Real Interest Parity Reserve Bank Information and Transfer Systems Reuters Markets Data System Residuary Non-Banking Companies Regional Rural Banks Real Time Gross Settlement Reserve Tranche Position South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation Special Agricultural Credit Plan Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interest Securities Contract (Regulations) Act, 1956 State Co-operative Agricultural and Rural Development Bank State Co-operative Bank Scheduled Commercial Banks Special Data Dissemination Standards State Development Loans Satellite Dealers South East Asian Central Banks South East Asia, New Zealand and Australia Securities and Exchange Board of India State Financial Corporation Settlement Guarantee Fund

SARFAESI

SC(R)A SCARDB SCB SCBs SDDS SDLs SDs SEACEN SEANZA SEBI SFC SGF

PCs PD PDAI PDO PDs PIO PLF PLR PPP PSCFC PSU PTC

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SGL SHCIL SHG SIDBI SLR SME SPV SR SROs SRS SSI STCCS STCI STP STRIPS

Subsidiary General Ledger Stock Holding Corporation of India Limited Self Help Group Small Industries Development Bank of India Statutory Liquidity Ratio Small and Medium Enterprises Special Purpose Vehicle Security Receipt Self Regulatory Organisations System Requirement Study Small Scale Industries Short-Term Co-operative Credit Structure Securities Trading Corporation of India Straight Through Processing Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Pr incipal of Securities Securities Transactions Tax Technical Advisory Committee Tax Deducted at Source Twelfth Finance Commission Treasury Inflation Protected Securities

TOR TPDS TRS UCBs UIP UK US USAID UTI VAR VaR VCF VSAT VTR WADR WDM WI WMA WOS WPI WSS WTO YTM ZCBs

Turnover Ratio Targeted Public Distribution System Total Return Swap Urban Co-operative Banks Uncovered Interest Parity United Kingdom United States United States Agency for International Development Unit Trust of India Vector Auto Regression Value at Risk Venture Capital Fund Very Small Aperture Terminal Value Traded Ratio Weighted Average Discount Rate Wholesale Debt Market When Issued Ways and Means Advances Wholly Owned Subsidiaries Wholesale Price Index Weekly Statistical Supplement World Trade Organisation Yield to Maturity Zero Coupon Bonds

STT TAC TDS TFC TIPS

This Report can also be accessed on Internet URL : www.rbi.org.in

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THEME OF THE REPORT

1.1 A well-functioning financial system is a sine qua non for the pursuit of economic growth with stability. The core function of a well-developed financial system is to facilitate smooth and efficient allocation of resources from savers to the ultimate users. That an efficient financial system is a key to development is not new in the economic literature. In fact, in his classic, Lombard Street : A Description of the Money Market (1873), Walter Bagehot had argued that it was Englands efficient capital market that made the industrial revolution possible. Bagehot was the first to define the two primary roles of financial markets. One, they facilitate the accumulation of capital. Two, they manage risk inherent in particular investment projects and industries. 1.2 The most important and thorough recognition of the role of financial development in economic development came in 1912 when Joseph Schumpeter contended that financial development promotes economic growth by improving productivity. However, this view had fallen out of mainstream thinking for quite a long time as several prominent economists subsequently acknowledged that the financial systems were an essential feature of an advanced economy, but argued that they did not themselves contribute to growth. For instance, Joan Robinson (1952) argued that financial systems emerge in a passive way to respond to the needs of the real economy. In fact, early empirical work appeared to suggest that although economic growth and financial development occurred in tandem, there was no evidence of a causal relationship. This view was generally accepted over the 1950s through the early 1970s. Academics and policy makers during this period believed that finance emerges in an economy only after a certain stage of development. To the extent finance appeared in the ear ly development literature, it was only to advocate that the financial system could be managed to achieve cer tain societal goals. In fact, many developing countries were encouraged to favour the flow of credit to certain preferred sectors through credit rationing or interest rate ceilings. However, the observed failure of these strategies - dubbed as financial repression by McKinnon-Shaw (1973) - led to the realisation of the central role played by the financial system.

1.3 There has also been a better understanding of the role of financial systems in advanced economies through endogenous growth theory. The key to growth in this model is continuous productivity advances that take place through technological advancement. This makes productivity the main engine of growth. One of the crucial structural factors that affects productivity is the financial system (King and Levine, 1993). This view was in line with the view earlier suggested by Schumpeter. According to Levine (1997), financial services affect economic growth through five main channels, viz., saving mobilisation, resource allocation, risk management, management monitoring and trade facilitation. Each of the five main channels contributes to both capital accumulation and the process of technological innovation. These, in turn, feed directly to economic growth by the Solow growth model. 1.4 Financial reforms and liberalisation that have taken place in emerging economies in the 1980s and the 1990s have been largely inspired by the MckinnonShaw thesis (1973). However, financial crises of the last decade vividly established that a weak financial system not only makes a country, open to international capital flows, more vulnerable to crises, but also exacerbates the costs of any financial crisis that does occur. Over the past decade, many emerging market economies have, therefore, made significant efforts to strengthen their domestic financial systems, including financial markets the money market, the government securities market, the foreign exchange market and the equity market. Local bond markets are now the dominant source of funding for the Governments in several countries. There has been some improvement in the domestic corporate bond market as well in some countries, although the progress has been slow in this segment of the market. 1.5 What are then the key objectives of financial market development? From the viewpoint of an emerging economy like India, the basic aim of financial market development must be to aid economic growth and development. The primary role of financial markets, broadly interpreted, is to intermediate resources from savers to investors, and allocate them in an efficient manner among competing uses in the economy, thereby contributing to growth, both through increased investment and through enhanced efficiency in resource use (Mohan, 2007).

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

1.6 Financial markets in India have existed for a long time. However, they remained relatively underdeveloped for a variety of reasons. India introduced financial sector reforms as a part of structural reforms in the early 1990s. Since then, momentous changes have taken place in the Indian financial sector, including financial markets. Reforms in the financial markets encompassed all segments the money market, the credit market, the government securities market, the foreign exchange market, the equity market and the private corporate debt market. The development of financial markets in India has been pursued to bring about a transformation in the structure, efficiency and stability of markets as also to facilitate integration of markets. The emphasis has been on strengthening price discovery, easing of restrictions on flows or transactions, lowering of transaction costs, and enhancing liquidity. During the post-reform period, the structure of financial markets has witnessed a remarkable change in terms of financial instruments traded in various segments of the financial mar ket and mar ket par ticipants. Development of these markets has been done in a calibrated, sequenced and careful manner in step with those in other markets in the real economy. The sequencing has also been informed by the need to develop market infrastructure, technology and capabilities of market participants and financial institutions in a consistent manner. In a low income economy like India, the cost of downside risk is very high, so the objective of maintaining financial stability has to be constantly kept in view while developing financial markets (Mohan, 2007). 1.7 Financial sector reforms have had a profound effect in terms of aiding growth, while at the same time avoiding crises, enhancing efficiency of financial intermediaries and imparting resilience to the system (Reddy, 2000). Although various segments of the financial market, in general, have certainly become deeper and more liquid, there is still some way to go before all the segments of the financial market are fully developed. Whereas it has always been the endeavour of the authorities to develop financial markets, the need for developed financial markets has never been so strongly felt as at this point of time. The need for sustaining higher economic growth, improving the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, developing a diversified financial system, maximising the gains from financial integration and minimising its costs, and preparing for smooth capital account conver tibility, all point to the need for continuing sustained and perhaps accelerated efforts at developing financial markets in India. 2

MOBILISING RESOURCES FOR SUSTAINING HIGHER GROWTH 1.8 The primary role of the financial system in any economy is to mobilise resources for productive investment and thereby enhance productive capacity of the economy. A developed financial system broadens access to funds; conversely, in an underdeveloped financial system, access to funds is limited and people are constrained by the availability of their own funds and have to resort to high cost informal sources such as money lenders (Mohan, 2006c). Domestic financial markets are a critical pillar of a market based economy. The vital role of financial markets emanates from the fact that the needs of savers and investors, in general, are not homogenous in nature. Financial markets also facilitate trading of instruments and thus allow speedy exit. Saving essentially involves future consumption, the preference for which would vary depending on the requirements of liquidity, time (or maturity), safety and risk, and expected returns. Similarly, investment needs are different across enterprises. Financial markets thus play an important role in providing an array of instruments of various maturities and other features to satisfy various needs of savers and investors. In the absence of such instruments, capital mobilisation will be less than adequate. A shallow financial system, characterised by a limited number of instruments, cannot mobilise potential savings and meet investment requirements for several productive sectors with the attendant implications for the economic performance. 1.9 Realising the importance of financial sector development for high and steady growth and development, policy makers in emerging market economies (EMEs) and developing countries have been making efforts to provide appropriate regulatory environments for financial markets that (i) encourage competitive forces; (ii) facilitate the use of a variety of instruments; (iii) promote the growth of different kinds of institutions offering a wide range of financial instruments and services to potential savers and investors; (iv) protect the interests of savers by reducing their risks; and (v) promote the development of instruments that help in risk management. For regulating financial markets, regulators are guided by various considerations in the larger interest of society. Broadly, the objective of regulation is to protect depositors and investors interests (safety and conduct of business), promote financial inclusion, ensure monetary and financial stability and achieve sustained economic progress.

THEME OF THE REPORT

1.10 The Indian economy grew by 9 per cent during 2005-06 and it is estimated by the Central Statistical Organisation that it would grow by 9.2 per cent in 2006-07. The average annual growth rate in the last four years has been over 8 per cent. The gross domestic investment rate increased significantly from 23.0 per cent of GDP in 2001-02 to 33.8 per cent in 2005-06. The gross domestic saving rate also improved from 23.6 per cent to 32.4 per cent over the same period, underpinned by a significant turnaround in public sector saving and increase in private corporate sector saving. There has been optimism about the growing potential of economic growth in India. The Approach Paper to the Eleventh Five Year Plan (2007-08 to 2011-12) aims at putting the economy on a sustainable growth trajectory with a growth rate of approximately 10 per cent in the terminal year, which would yield an average growth rate of about 9 per cent in the Plan period. However, a set of issues relating to investments has been identified by the Planning Commission. An average growth of 9 per cent during the 11th Plan period requires an increase in domestic investment rate from 27.8 per cent in the 10th Plan to 35.1 per cent in the 11th Plan. While half of this increase in investment is expected to come from private investment in farms, small and medium enterprises and in the corporate sector, the rest is estimated to emanate from public investment with a focus on the infrastructure sector. 1.11 In order to achieve the desired savings and investment rates, there would be need to raise large resources domestically. India has a reasonably high and growing savings rate. However, for meeting the financing requirements of a growing economy what is important is mobilisation of financial savings. In this context, it may be noted that physical savings have been growing at a rate higher than the financial savings in recent years. Although this trend was reversed in 2005-06, physical savings still continue to be large. In order to facilitate substitution of physical savings in favour of financial savings, there would be need for innovative and attractive financial instruments. Appropriate instruments should also be available for the generation of longer term savings that are needed for financing infrastructure. Financial markets, therefore, would have a crucial role to play in mobilising resources of the required nature. FINANCIAL MARKETS AND MONETARY POLICY 1.12 From the point of view of the central bank, developed financial markets are critical for effective transmission of monetary policy impulses to the rest 3

of the economy. Monetary transmission cannot take place without efficient price discovery, particularly with respect to interest rates and exchange rates (Mohan, 2007). The transmission process for policy actions by central banks involves two stages. In the first stage, policy actions are transmitted to financial markets. The second stage of the transmission mechanism involves the propagation of monetary policy impulses from the financial system to the real economy and aggregate prices. A successful implementation of policy requires a reasonably accurate assessment of how rapidly the effects of policy actions are transmitted through the financial system, via financial prices and quantities, to the real economy, affecting aggregate spending decisions of households and firms, and from there to aggregate demand and inflation. 1.13 The first stage of the transmission mechanism depends on how changes in the market operations of central banks get transmitted through the money market to other markets, i.e., the bond market and the bank loan market, which directly affect spending decisions of individuals and firms. This involves the term structure, through which short-term money market rates affect longer-term bond rates, and the marginal cost of loan funding, through which bank loan rates are affected. Since the first stage involves the propagation of changes in policy instruments through the financial system, the state of financial market development, the efficiency of institutions or intermediaries and the institutional and structural characteristics of the financial system are critical for the effectiveness of monetary policy. 1.14 Developed financial markets enable central banks to use market-based instruments of monetary policy to target monetary variables more effectively. Developed financial markets also enable monetary authorities to extract forward-looking information about certain macroeconomic variables, such as the expected future path of economic growth, inflation and financial conditions, which are important in formulating effective monetary policy. 1.15 Recent developments in the global economy have accentuated the challenges that monetary authorities face. An important challenge faced by monetary authorities in the conduct of monetary policy has been brought by the new environment characterised by increased financial globalisation in recent years. In particular, it renders economies vulnerable to changes in external demand, volatility in capital flows and exchange rate shocks. Monetary policy formulation thus becomes much more inter-dependent than before across economies and has to factor in developments in the

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

global economic situation, the international inflationary situation, interest rates, exchange rate movements and capital flows. As a result, while domestic developments continue to dominate, global factors are increasingly gaining more importance. Massive cross-border capital flows, globalisation of financial markets and advances in information technology have combined to alter significantly the choice of instruments of monetary policy, operational settings, lag structures and transmission mechanism (Mohan, 2004). The heightened uncertainty surrounding the conduct of monetary policy has obscured a proper assessment of the nature of shocks impacting the economy and the resulting risks to price stability. It has also made the interpretation of macroeconomic and financial data difficult. 1.16 With the gradual liberalisation of the Indian economy, there has been substantial inflow of foreign capital into India, much in excess of the prevailing current account deficit. Whereas the opening of the economy has brought about gains in terms of inflows of foreign investments with positive implications for output and employment, it has also posed new challenges for managing the macroeconomy amidst large and volatile capital flows. The mar ket stabilisation scheme (MSS) was introduced to absorb inflows of the more enduring part of the liquidity overhang induced by excess capital flows. Suitable changes were also made in the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) scheme. However, going forward, there will be a continuous need to adopt an appropriate strategy of active liquidity management and short-term interest rate smoothening for effective monetary management and financial stability. This issue becomes even more relevant under a freer regime of capital flows (Mohan, 2006b). 1.17 The Reserve Banks approach has been to foster balanced development of various segments of the money market to improve the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. However, certain segments of the money market have yet to develop. As a debt manager to the Government, the development of a deep and liquid market for government securities is of critical importance to the Reserve Bank as it results in better price discovery and cost effective Government borrowing. The government securities market also provides an effective transmission mechanism for monetary policy, facilitates the introduction and pricing of hedging products and serves as a benchmark for pricing other debt instruments. Although the government securities market has developed considerably over the years, more needs to be done for it to become fully developed. A liquid and reliable yield curve, especially at the longer-end of the 4

maturity needs to be developed further. The absence of a developed private corporate debt market also hampers the smooth transmission of monetary policy impulses. With the financial markets in India acquiring greater depth and maturity in recent years, the issue of greater integration of various financial market segments has also come to the forefront, particularly in the context of monetary policy transmission. The significance of developed and well-integrated financial markets from a monetary policy perspective thus can hardly be overemphasised. DIVERSIFIED FINANCIAL SYSTEM 1.18 While the importance of finance is now widely recognised, it was less clear, until recently, as to what were the main features of a successful financial system. Financial institutions and financial markets are two generic mechanisms for transferring resources from surplus spending units to deficit spending units. While the financial systems in the US, the UK and other AngloSaxon countries relied more on capital markets, in Japan and Germany, banks dominated their financial systems. Both bank-based and market-based systems have their unique advantages and disadvantages. Banks are generally in a better position to collect and interpret information about investment opportunities and monitor projects. Banks are also better equipped to operate in a system where the legal framework is not adequately developed as they are able to make borrowers disclose the information needed by them and to repay. However, intermediaries tend to favour lowrisk projects. On the other hand, capital markets may have an advantage in dealing with uncertainty and new ideas and make funding of riskier projects possible. In practice, both types of mechanisms co-exist and supplement each other, though one system may have predominance over the other. 1.19 Some argue that differences in the financial structure do matter. For instance, financial systems dominated by arms-length transactions (markets with lower bank density and greater disintermediation) have been found to better accommodate resource reallocations from declining to expanding sectors than systems dominated by relationship-based transactions. As arms-length transactions tend to be more characteristic of capital markets than of banks, this would suggest that economies with more developed capital markets may be more flexible and dynamic, and, therefore, more likely to experience higher productivity and growth, than those with bankbased financial systems (Rato, 2006). However, histor ical exper ience suggests that both the

THEME OF THE REPORT

mechanisms have worked well. If market-based systems were successful in the UK and the US, bankbased systems were successful in Germany and Japan. After the East Asian crisis, however, it has been widely recognised that there should be a balanced financial system wherein both financial institutions and financial markets play important roles. 1.20 Historically, financial systems in emerging mar ket and developing economies have been dominated by their banking systems. Excessive reliance on the banking system, however, makes the financial system vulnerable to shocks and exacerbates the crises, as was observed during the East Asian crisis. Developed capital markets also enable countries to reduce their reliance on foreign borrowing. This is particularly important for emerging market countries. Since external debt has been a major source of vulnerability in EMEs, capital market development could potentially exercise a stabilising influence (Rato, 2006). Similarly, complementary or supporting infrastructure such as the repo market, margin trading and derivatives, if developed within an appropriate framework in EMEs, can be important means of reducing the transaction cost further. It also allows market participants to manage and transfer risks to those who are able and willing to bear them, which helps in developing a robust financial system. 1.21 Historically, the financial system in India has also been dominated by financial intermediaries, in general, and banking institutions, in particular. This pattern has remained more or less unaltered over the years. Households invest only a small portion of their savings in the securities market directly or indirectly through mutual funds. The need, therefore, is felt to develop a diversified financial system over a period of time in which both financial institutions and financial markets play important roles. 1.22 Developed financial markets are required not only to enable corporates to raise resources from the market, but also to enable banks to raise resources to sustain their growth. Banks need to raise capital from the market on an ongoing basis in order to sustain their operations. Their requirements of capital are also expected to increase on implementation of Basel II. Thus, banks inability to raise resources from the capital market could stunt their growth with attendant implications for economic growth. In India, pension and provident funds hold a large corpus of funds. These funds, however, generate low returns as they have limited avenues to deploy their funds in highly rated corporate bonds. Developed private corporate debt market may enable these pension and 5

provident funds to deploy their funds in corporate bonds and generate higher returns. FINANCIAL INTEGRATION AND FINANCIAL MARKETS 1.23 The need for developed financial markets also arises in the context of increasing integration of domestic financial markets with international financial markets. The concept of globalisation today is no longer restricted to its traditional sense, i.e., variety of cross-border transactions in goods and services, but also extends to international capital flows, driven by rapid and widespread diffusion of technology. In fact, most of the literature in recent years on globalisation has centred around financial integration due to the emergence of worldwide financial markets and the possibility of better access to external financing for a variety of domestic entities. Integration of the domestic economy with the global economy can also provide the benefits of diversification to the residents. During the 1980s, capital account liberalisation came to be seen as an essential, and even inevitable step on the path to economic development, analogous to the earlier reductions in barriers to international trade in goods and services. However, capital account liberalisation also exposes the domestic economy to certain risks. Large capital flows cause volatility, i.e., tendency of financial markets to go through boom and bust cycles in which capital flows grow and then contract. Another risk is contagion, that is inability of the market to distinguish between one type of borrower and another. These risks, if not managed well, could have serious implications as was observed in the case of East Asian cr isis in the mid-1990s. Inadequate or mismanaged domestic financial sector liberalisation has been a major contributor to crises that may be associated with financial integration (Mishkin, 2006). Thus, with greater financial integration, a developed, vibrant, effective and stable financial system assumes considerable significance. 1.24 Global developments, particularly those in international financial markets, have the most direct and serious impact on the financing conditions in emerging markets. Volatility in financial markets could adversely affect the EMEs in many ways, and also in a complex and interrelated fashion. For convenience of analysis, the impact may be classified broadly into: (i) the impact on the financing conditions in which EMEs operate; (ii) impairment of the balance sheets of the banking sector; and (iii) hampering of the growth prospects in the real sector (Reddy, 2005).

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

1.25 India has been gradually and cautiously liberalising its capital account since the early 1990s. However, in several areas capital account is still managed by the Reserve Bank. Given the large investment needs of the country, domestic savings may need to be supplemented by foreign capital, although the absorption of foreign capital is limited on a macroeconomic basis by the magnitude of a sustainable current account deficit. 1.26 With the greater globalisation of trade and relatively free movement of financial assets, risk management through derivative products has also assumed significance in India. With the Indian corporates getting increasingly integrated with overseas markets and accessing international capital markets, there is need to develop a broad-based, active and liquid foreign exchange derivatives market which provides them with a spectrum of hedging products for effectively managing their foreign exchange exposures. Derivative markets reallocate risk among financial market participants and reduce information asymmetry among investors. Derivative markets also facilitate efficient price discovery and make unbundling of risk easier (Gambhir and Goel, 2003). 1.27 Thus, if benefits from financial integration are to be maximised, it is imperative to pursue efforts towards a greater sophistication of financial markets and develop instruments that allow appropriate pricing, sharing and transfer of risks. 1.28 The need to develop financial markets has also been underlined by the two high-powered committees, viz.; Committee on Fuller Capital Account Convertibility (FCAC) and the High Powered Expert Committee on Making Mumbai an International Financial Centre. The Committee on Fuller Capital Account Convertibility in its Report submitted in July 2006 indicated that in order to make a move towards fuller capital account convertibility, it needs to be ensured that different financial market segments are not only well-developed but also that they are wellintegrated. Otherwise, shocks to one or more market segments would not get transmitted to other segments efficiently so that the entire financial system is able to absorb the shocks with minimal damage. 1.29 Developed and well-integrated financial markets are critical for sustaining high growth, for the effective conduct of monetary policy, for developing a diversified financial system, financial integration and ensuring financial stability. The question thus is not whether we need developed financial markets, but how we should go about in developing them fully. 6

Financial markets today deal with complex and sophisticated products. Introduction of such products would require clear regulator y framewor ks, appropriate institutions and development of human resource skills. The speed for further changes in the financial markets would thus depend on how quickly are we able to meet these requirements. 1.30 Deregulation, liberalisation, and globalisation of financial markets pose several risks to financial stability. Financial markets are often governed by herd behaviour and contagion and excessive competition among financial institutions can also lead to a race to the bottom. The East Asian crisis of the 1990s suggested that global financial mar kets can exacerbate domestic vulnerabilities. Notwithstanding the conventional wisdom that financial markets punish deviations from prudent policies, financial markets, at times, seem to tolerate imprudent behaviour for a remarkable stretch of time, while reacting prematurely at other times (Lipschitz, 2007). In recognition of these possible destabilising factors, while liberalising domestic financial markets in India, appropriate prudential safeguards have also been put in place. Excessive fluctuations and volatility in financial markets can mask the underlying value and give rise to confusing signals, thereby hindering efficient price discovery. Accordingly, policy efforts have also aimed at ensuring orderly conditions in financial mar kets (Mohan, 2006a). Enhancing efficiency, while at the same time avoiding instability in the system, has been the challenge for the regulators in India (Reddy, 2004). This approach to development and regulation of financial markets has imparted resilience to the financial markets. 1.31 From the point of view of the economy as a whole, while developing financial markets it is essential to keep in view how such development helps overall growth and development. The price discovery of interest rates and exchange rates, and integration of such prices across markets helps in the efficient allocation of resources in the real sectors of the economy. Financial intermediaries like banks also gain from better determination of interest rates in financial markets so that they can price their own products better. Moreover, their own r isk management can also improve through the availability of different var ieties of financial instruments. The access of real sector entities to finance is also assisted by the appropr iate development of the financial markets and the availability of transparent information on benchmark interest rates and prevailing exchange rates. The

THEME OF THE REPORT

approach of the Reserve Bank in the development of financial markets has been guided by these considerations, while also keeping in view the availability of appropriate skills and capacities for par ticipation in financial markets, both among financial market participants and real sector entities and individuals (Mohan, 2007). The Reserve Banks approach has, therefore, been one of consistent development of markets while exercising caution in favour of maintaining financial stability in the system. 1.32 In the last 15 years, several reform measures have been initiated to develop the financial markets in India. As a result, various segments of the financial market are now better developed and integrated. Despite considerable progress made so far, financial markets need to develop further in line with the evolving conditions. In order to strengthen the understanding of the structure of the Indian financial markets and to identify the substantive issues that need to be addressed towards meeting this objective, the theme of this Report for 2005-06 has been selected as Development of Financial Markets and Role of the Central Bank. The Report undertakes an in-depth analysis of various segments of the financial market in India in terms of inter-temporal development, cross-country comparison, highlighting the current major issues and the policy initiatives. An attempt is also made to outline the way forward for each segment of the financial market. The thrust of the Report is to assess the impact of various policy measures and to look ahead as to what further needs to be done to develop financial markets in India. Various measures suggested in this Report set out only the broad direction in which reforms in the financial markets could move in future. Their implementation would need careful sequencing in tune with the evolving domestic and global developments. The implementation of measures suggested would also be contingent upon the development of appropriate market infrastructure and market players. Participants in financial markets are exposed to various risks. These risks, therefore, need to be managed carefully. In view of this, it would be necessary to develop market players who understand the risks and have the wherewithal to manage them. The transferring of risks to those market participants who do not understand them and do not have the capacity to manage them could have serious implications for the financial system. The pace and sequencing of measures could, therefore, be calibrated keeping in view the degree of comfort in moving forward in a credible way. 1.33 The Repor t, including this chapter, is organised into nine chapters. As a prelude to the 7

substantive theme based discussion, Chapter II of the Repor t titled Recent Economic Developments presents an analytical account of macroeconomic developments in the Indian Economy during 2005-06 and 2006-07 (up to the period for which data were available). Besides, latest macroeconomic developments for 2007-08, wherever available, are also covered. The chapter covers six broad sections, viz., the real sector, fiscal situation, monetary and credit situation, financial markets, financial institutions and the external sector. 1.34 The theme based Repor t begins with Chapter III on Money Market. The money market is a key segment of the financial market as it provides the fulcrum of monetary operations conducted by the central bank in its pursuit of monetar y policy objectives. Besides providing an equilibrating mechanism for demand and supply of short-term funds for banks and other entities, it ensures an efficient market clearing price, while enabliing the central bank to intervene for influencing both the quantum and cost of liquidity in the financial system, thereby transmitting monetary policy impulses to the real economy. After delineating inter national experience on money market operating procedures, instruments, objectives, the evolving practices in liquidity management operations as well as the structures of money markets, the chapter deals with various aspects of the money market in India. The chapter focuses on the changing role of the Reserve Banks liquidity management operations, in line with the shifts in the operating procedures, that shaped the development of the money market. It also spells out the role of risk management and the Reserve Banks proactive role in mitigating various risks in the money market. Emerging issues in monetary and liquidity management in India and the need for addressing these issues in future for the smooth functioning of the money market and the efficient conduct of monetary policy have also been highlighted in the chapter. 1.35 Chapter IV titled as Credit Market deals with various aspects of the credit market in India. After a brief outline of the theoretical underpinnings on the significance of the credit market in economic growth, the chapter sets out the structure of the credit market in India and policy measures initiated to develop it along sound lines since the early 1990s. The focus of the chapter is on trends in credit growth in India since the early 1990s with a special emphasis on rapid credit growth in recent years. Aspects relating to the credit channel of monetary policy, analytical issues relating to credit boom and monetary policy and the

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

relationship between bank credit and asset prices have been addressed comprehensively. The way forward for further strengthening the role of the credit market has been outlined. 1.36 Chapter V titled as Government Securities Market covers various aspects of the government securities market in India since the early 1990s and attempts to identify the key issues that need to be addressed to meet the emerging challenges. The chapter begins with the theoretical underpinnings and principles and policy strategy for developing a deep and liquid government securities market, both primary and secondary, based on the international experience. While outlining the developments in the government securities market in India, the chapter underscores the role played by the Reserve Bank in developing this market segment since the early 1990s. Finally, the chapter raises some issues that need to be addressed for enabling the government securities market to play a more vibrant role in the emerging scenario, especially in the context of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act and move towards fuller capital account convertibility. 1.37 Chapter VI titled as Foreign Exchange Market attempts to analyse the role of the central bank in developing the foreign exchange market. After a brief overview of different exchange rate regimes being followed in EMEs, it traces the evolution of the foreign exchange market in India along with the shifts in exchange rate regime in the post-independence period. Regulatory and policy initiatives by the Reserve Bank and the Government of India for developing a vibrant foreign exchange market have been covered in the chapter. It also spells out the current foreign exchange market structure and market infrastructure in terms of market players, trading platform, instruments and settlement mechanisms. This is followed by an assessment of the performance of the Indian foreign exchange market in terms of market liquidity and efficiency. Empirical exercises have also been carried out relating to the behaviour of forward premia, bid-offer spreads and determinants of market turnover. It also traces the journey of the Indian foreign exchange market since the early 1990s, especially through periods of volatility and its management by the authorities. Further measures needed for deepening the foreign exchange market to meet the emerging challenges of financial integration have been outlined. 1.38 Chapter VII titled as Equity and Corporate Debt Market is broadly divided into two sections, viz., the

equity market and the corporate debt market. A discussion on theoretical underpinnings of the role of the stock market in financing economic growth is followed by an overview of the measures initiated to reform the capital market in India since the early 1990s. It then assesses the impact of various reform measures on size, liquidity, transaction cost and volatility in the stock market in India. The performance of the equity market in India has been compared with select international markets, wherever possible. A brief account of the asset prices along with the wealth effect and its impact on aggregate demand is also presented. In the section on the corporate debt market, the need for developing the private corporate bond market for promoting growth and creating multiple financing channels, especially for an emerging country like India, has been spelt out. This is followed by a description of the evolution of the debt market in India from the mid-1980s onwards, the emergence and the predominance of the private placement market, and the factors that are hampering a healthy and vibrant growth of this segment of the market. The chapter draws attention to the path forward for enhancing the role of the primary equity market and for developing the private corporate debt market in India in the light of select cross-country experiences. 1.39 Chapter VIII of the Report titled as Financial Market Integration begins with the conceptual framework of financial market integration. This is followed by a discussion on different dimensions and benefits and risks of financial market integration. It then outlines the various policy measures undertaken in India, which have facilitated the integration of various financial market segments. After delineating briefly the phases of domestic market integration in India, the chapter presents a detailed empirical analysis on the integration of various segments of the financial market in India, viz., the gover nment securities market, the credit market, the foreign exchange market and the capital market. Issues relating to market integration and monetary policy have also been highlighted. Various aspects of global and regional integration and Indias international financial integration have also been covered. As a way forward, the chapter suggests certain measures to further strengthen the process of financial market integration in India. 1.40 Chapter IX titled as Overall Assessment sets out some final reflections for further developing and integrating the various segments of the financial market in India.

II

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

2.1 The Indian economy continued to exhibit robust macroeconomic performance during 2006-07. Industrial production maintained its momentum with growth accelerating to double digit during 2006-07, propelled by strong growth in manufacturing. A significant feature of the industrial sector performance has been the continued high growth rate of the capital goods sector. The performance of the private corporate sector has improved, after a brief moderation during the second half of 2005-06, underpinned by buoyant domestic and export demand. Investment climate continues to be encouraging. The growth in the services sector accelerated during the first three quarters of 2006-07 mainly led by the sub-sectors trade, hotel, transport and communication and financing, insurance, real estate and business services. The onset of the South-West Monsoon 2006 was delayed by over a week. Although the overall performance of the Monsoon was close to nor mal, the temporal and spatial distribution was uneven. However, on the whole, the Indian Economy is expected to grow at a robust pace. 2.2 Headline inflation remained at an elevated level from November 2006, driven mainly by primary food articles and manufactured products. Consumer pr ice inflation remained above WPI inflation throughout the year, mainly reflecting the impact of higher food prices. The Mid-term Review of the Annual Policy Statement of the Reserve Bank in October 2006 observed that the combination of high growth and consumer inflation coupled with escalating asset prices and tightening infrastructural bottlenecks underscored the need to reckon with dangers of overheating and implications for the timing and direction of monetary policy setting. It, however, also emphasised that it was important to recognise that the apprehension of overheating could at best be transitional in nature as there was evidence of substantial investment taking place, accompanied by overall productivity increases which should augment potential output. The Reserve Bank continued to emphasise the criticality of monitoring all available indicators that point to excess aggregate demand. 2.3 During 2006-07, the Reserve Bank managed liquidity with a judicious mix of the available tools, viz., liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) and issuance of securities under the market stabilisation scheme (MSS). In order to ensure an effective liquidity

management, the Reserve Bank in March 2007 modified and put in place an augmented programme of issuance under the MSS with a mix of treasury bills and dated securities in a more flexible manner. Accordingly, the daily reverse repo absorption was limited to a maximum of Rs.3,000 crore. In view of underlying inflationary pressures, the Reserve Bank has resorted to a series of pre-emptive monetary policy measures, viz., increase in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 150 basis points and the repo/reverse repo rate by 125/50 basis points in phases since June 2006. These measures combined with supply side fiscal measures and moderation in fuel prices helped in keeping inflationary expectations well-anchored. The approach to liquidity management, however, continued to ensure that appropriate liquidity is maintained in the system to meet all the legitimate requirements of credit for the productive purposes, consistent with the objective of price and financial stability, as emphasised by the Third Quarter Review in January 2007. 2.4 Financial markets remained orderly, barring brief spells in November and mid-December 2006 and in mid-March 2007, when call money rates moved up to high levels due to liquidity frictions. The equity market also encountered brief spells of volatility during May-June 2006 and February/March 2007. Barring these episodes, financial markets were stable. 2.5 Financial institutions, especially scheduled commercial banks, witnessed improved business and financial performance during 2005-06, underpinned by robust macroeconomic fundamentals. Public finances of both the Centre and the States as per revised estimates showed improvement on the back of buoyancy in both tax and non-tax revenue, which more than offset the higher expenditure. 2.6 The external sector continues to reflect dynamism with strong growth in merchandise exports of goods and services. The balance of payments position has remained comfortable, despite high and volatile international crude oil prices during the most part of the year. Large capital flows continued much in excess of the current account deficit, resulting in substantial net accretion to foreign exchange reserves. 2.7 Against the above backdrop, this chapter presents a detailed account of macroeconomic developments during 2005-06 and 2006-07 (up to the

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 2.1: Real Gross Domestic Product (At 1999-2000 Prices)

(Per cent) Sector 1 2000-01 2 2001-02 3 2002-03 4 2003-04 5 Growth Rate 1. Agriculture and Allied Activities a) Agriculture 2. Industry a) Manufacturing b) Mining and Quarrying c) Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 3. Services a) Trade, Hotels and Restaurants b) Transport, Storage and Communication c) Financing, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services d) Community, Social and Personal Services e) Construction 4. Gross Domestic Product at Factor Cost -0.2 -0.6 6.4 7.7 2.4 2.1 5.7 5.2 11.2 4.1 4.8 6.2 4.4 6.3 6.5 2.4 2.5 1.8 1.7 6.8 9.6 8.2 7.3 4.1 4.0 5.8 -7.2 -8.1 6.8 6.8 8.8 4.7 7.4 6.9 13.6 8.0 3.9 7.9 3.8 10.0 10.9 6.0 6.6 3.1 4.8 8.9 10.3 15.1 5.6 5.4 12.0 8.5 0.0 -0.2 8.4 8.7 7.5 7.5 10.0 8.4 15.2 8.7 7.9 14.1 7.5 6.0 6.3 8.0 9.1 3.6 5.3 10.3 8.2 13.9 10.9 7.7 14.2 9.0 2.7 .. 10.2 11.3 4.5 7.7 11.0 13.0 $ 11.1 7.8 9.4 9.2 2004-05 6 2005-06 2006-07 (QE) (AE) 7 8

Sectoral Composition 1. 2. 3. 4. Agriculture and Allied Activities Industry Services Total 23.9 20.0 56.1 100.0 18,64,773 24.0 19.3 56.7 100.0 19,72,912 21.5 19.9 58.7 100.0 20,47,733 21.7 19.5 58.8 100.0 22,22,591 20.2 19.6 60.2 100.0 23,89,660 19.7 19.4 60.9 100.0 26,04,532 18.5 19.6 61.9 100.0 28,44,022

Memo: Real GDP at Factor Cost at 1999-2000 Prices (Rupees crore)

.. : Not available. QE: Quick Estimates. AE: Advance Estimates. $ : Includes trade, hotels and restaurants and transport, storage and communication. Source: Central Statistical Organisation.

I. REAL SECTOR National Income 2.8 The Indian economy exhibited robust growth performance during 2005-06 with real GDP growth accelerating to 9.0 per cent from 7.5 per cent in 200405. The improved performance during 2005-06 was under pinned by a tur naround in the growth of agriculture and allied activities and sustained growth of the services. The industrial sector maintained high 10

Per cent

period for which latest data are available). Latest macroeconomic developments for 2007-08, wherever available, are also covered. While section I presents developments in the real sector, section II presents a detailed account of Central and State Government finances. Section III dwells on monetary and credit developments along with the inflation trends. Section IV outlines developments in the financial markets. Business operations of financial institutions are covered in Section V. Section VI sets out external sector developments. Overall assessment is presented in Section VII.

growth, albeit somewhat lower than in 2004-05 (Table 2.1 and Chart II.1). Growth in agriculture and
Chart II.1: Annual Growth Rate of GDP at Factor Cost (At 1999-2000 Prices)
Range: 3.8 per cent to 9.2 per cent

(QE)

(AE)

(PE)

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

Table 2.2: Quarterly Growth Rates of Gross Domestic Product (At 1999-2000 prices)
(Per cent) 2001-02 to 2006-07 (Average) 2 3.0 (20.9) .. 7.0 (19.5) 4.9 7.5 5.3 2005-06 2005-06* 2006-07# Q1 3 6.0 (19.7) 6.3 8.0 (19.4) 3.6 9.1 5.3 10.3 (60.9) 10.4 10.9 7.7 14.2 9.0 (100.0) 4 2.7 (18.5) .. 10.2 (19.6) 4.5 11.3 7.7 11.0 (61.9) 13.0 11.1 7.8 9.4 9.2 (100.0) 5 4.0 Q2 6 4.0 Q3 7 8.7 Q4 8 5.5 Q1 9 3.4 Q2 10 1.7 Q3 11 1.5 2005-06 2006-07 12 6.0 13 2.2 2006-07 April-December

Sector 1 1. Agriculture and Allied Activities 1.1 Agriculture 2. Industry 2.1 Mining and Quarrying 2.2 Manufacturing 2.3 Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 3. Services 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4

9.8 6.0 10.7 7.4 9.5 10.2 8.9 7.5 12.7 8.4

6.6 0.1 8.1 2.6 9.5 9.5 10.6 7.9 11.3 8.0

7.2 2.7 8.2 5.0 10.3 10.0 9.8 8.3 16.6 9.3

7.9 3.0 8.9 6.1 11.0 12.9 10.5 7.6 12.0 9.3

9.7 3.4 11.3 5.4 10.4 13.1 9.0 7.4 9.5 8.9

10.5 3.1 11.9 7.7 10.7 13.8 9.5 6.9 9.8 9.2

10.0 5.7 10.7 9.3 11.1 13.0 11.6 7.5 9.9 8.6

7.8 3.0 9.0 5.0 9.8 9.9 9.8 7.9 13.6 8.6

10.1 4.1 11.3 7.5 10.8 13.3 10.1 7.2 9.7 8.9

9.1 (59.5) Trade, Hotels, Transport & Communication 10.8 Financing, Insurance, Real Estate and Business Services 8.6 Community, Social and Personal Services 6.2 Construction 10.3 7.3 (100.0)

4. Real GDP at Factor Cost

* : Quick Estimates. # : Advanced Estimates. .. : Not Available. Note : Figures in parentheses denote share in real GDP. Source : Central Statistical Organisation.

allied activities was enabled by both foodgrains and non-foodgrains production and improvement in respect of hor ticulture, livestock, fisheries and plantation crops. Real GDP growth originating from the industrial sector was driven mainly by strong manufacturing activity. Sustained expansion in domestic as well as exports demand, increased capacity utilisation, augmentation of capacities and positive business and consumer confidence underpinned the growth of the manufacturing sector. Continuing the double digit growth of the previous year, real GDP originating in the services sector recorded a growth of 10.3 per cent during 2005-06. The services sector remained the key driver of growth during 2005-06, contributing three-fifth to the overall real GDP. The robust performance of the services sector was led mainly by the sub-sectors trade, hotels, transpor t and communication and financing, insurance, real estate and business services. 2.9 The Advance Estimates by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) have placed the GDP growth for 2006-07 at 9.2 per cent, which points to continuing buoyancy in domestic economic activity. Real GDP growth for the first three quarters of 200607 (April-December) was placed higher at 8.9 per cent as against 8.6 per cent in the corresponding period a year ago (Table 2.2). Overall industrial production increased sharply by 10.1 per cent in the three 11

quarters of 2006-07 (April-December) from 7.8 per cent in the corresponding period of 2005-06. The services sector growth is estimated to be higher at 10.8 per cent in the first three quar ters (AprilDecember) of 2006-07 as against 9.8 per cent during the same period in 2005-06. 2.10 Various national and international organisations have placed the real GDP growth rate for 2007-08 in the range of 7.9-8.5 per cent (Table 2.3). At this rate, India would continue to be one of the fastest growing Table 2.3: Growth in Real Gross Domestic Product, 2007-08 Forecasts for India
(Per cent) Institution 1 Latest 2 Month of Projection 3 (March 2007) (May 2007) (April 2007) (March 2007) (April 2007) (April 2007) (April 2007)

Asian Development Bank 8.0 Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy 8.5 Confederation of Indian Industry 8.5 Credit Rating Information Services of India Limited 7.9-8.4 National Council of Applied Economic Research 8.3 International Monetary Fund 8.4 Reserve Bank of India Around 8.5 Memo: Range

7.9-8.5

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 2.4: Output Growth: Cross-Country Comparison

(Per cent) Country 1 World Advanced Economies Other Emerging Markets and Developing Countries Argentina Bangladesh Brazil Chile China India Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Pakistan Philippines Sri Lanka Thailand P : IMF Projections. Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2007. Average 1999-2008 2 4.4 2.6 6.4 2.9 5.9 3.1 4.0 9.4 7.0 4.8 5.5 3.1 5.3 4.9 5.2 4.9 1999 3 3.7 3.5 4.1 -3.4 5.4 0.3 -0.4 7.6 6.7 0.8 6.1 3.8 3.7 3.4 4.3 4.4 2000 4 4.8 4.0 6.0 -0.8 5.6 4.3 4.5 8.4 5.3 5.4 8.9 6.6 4.3 6.0 6.0 4.8 2001 5 2.5 1.2 4.3 -4.4 4.8 1.3 3.5 8.3 4.1 3.6 0.3 2.0 1.8 -1.5 2.2 2002 6 3.1 1.6 5.0 -10.9 4.8 2.7 2.2 9.1 4.3 4.5 4.4 0.8 3.2 4.4 4.0 5.3 2003 7 4.0 1.9 6.7 8.8 5.8 1.1 4.0 10.0 7.3 4.8 5.5 1.4 4.9 4.9 6.0 7.1 2004 8 5.3 3.3 7.7 9.0 6.1 5.7 6.0 10.1 7.8 5.0 7.2 4.2 7.4 6.2 5.4 6.3 2005 9 4.9 2.5 7.5 9.2 6.3 2.9 5.7 10.4 9.2 5.7 5.2 2.8 8.0 5.0 6.0 4.5 2006 2007P 2008P 10 5.4 3.1 7.9 8.5 6.7 3.7 4.0 10.7 9.2 5.5 5.9 4.8 6.2 5.4 7.5 5.0 11 4.9 2.5 7.5 7.5 6.6 4.4 5.2 10.0 8.4 6.0 5.5 3.4 6.5 5.8 7.0 4.5 12 4.9 2.7 7.1 5.5 6.5 4.2 5.1 9.5 7.8 6.3 5.8 3.5 6.5 5.8 7.0 4.8

economies among the emerging market economies in the world (Table 2.4). Saving and Investment 2.11 The rate of gross domestic saving (GDS), as a proportion to GDP at current market prices, which

has been continuously increasing since 2000-01, was placed at 32.4 per cent in 2005-06 (Table 2.5 and Chart II.2).The rate of GDS at 32.4 per cent was the highest ever achieved since 1950-51. The household sector continued to be the major contributor to GDS with its saving rate placed at 22.3 per cent in 2005-06 as compared with 21.6 per cent in 2004-05. Savings

Table 2.5: Gross Domestic Saving and Investment

(Per cent of GDP at current market prices) Sector 1 1. Gross Domestic Saving (GDS) (1.1+1.2+1.3) 1.1 Household Saving a) Financial assets b) Physical assets 1.2 Private corporate sector 1.3 Public sector 2. Gross Domestic Capital Formation (GDCF)# 3. Saving-Investment Balance (1-2) 4. Gross Capital Formation (4.1+4.2+4.3+4.4) 4.1 Household sector 4.2 Private corporate sector 4.3 Public sector 4.4 Valuables@ 1999-00 2 24.8 21.1 10.6 10.5 4.5 -0.8 25.9 -1.1 26.1 10.5 7.4 7.4 0.8 2000-01 3 23.4 21.0 10.2 10.8 4.3 -1.9 24.0 -0.6 24.1 10.8 5.7 6.9 0.7 2001-02 4 23.5 21.8 10.8 10.9 3.7 -2.0 22.9 0.6 23.8 10.9 5.4 6.9 0.6 2002-03 5 26.4 22.7 10.3 12.4 4.2 -0.6 25.2 1.2 25.0 12.4 5.9 6.1 0.6 2003-04 6 29.7 23.8 11.3 12.4 4.7 1.2 28.0 1.7 26.6 12.4 6.9 6.3 0.9 2004-05P 7 31.1 21.6 10.2 11.4 7.1 2.4 31.5 -0.4 29.7 11.4 9.9 7.1 1.3 2005-06 QE 8 32.4 22.3 11.7 10.7 8.1 2.0 33.8 -1.3 32.2 10.7 12.9 7.4 1.2

P : Provisional. QE : Quick Estimates. # : Adjusted for errors and omission. @ : Valuables covers the expenditure made on acquisition of valuables included in the Gross Capital Formation. Note : Figures may not add up to the totals due to rounding off. Source : Central Statistical Organisation.

12

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

Chart II.2: Saving by Institutional Sources (At 1999-2000 Prices)

Chart II.3: Gross Capital Formation by Institutional Sources (At 1999-2000 Prices)

Per cent to GDP

Per cent to GDP

2004-05 (PE)

Household

Private Corporate

Public Sector

Public Sector

Private Corporate

Household

Valuables

by households in the form of physical assets during 2000-01 to 2004-05 exceeded those in financial assets. This trend, however, was reversed in 2005-06. Private corporate saving, which has been increasing steadily since 2001-02, grew by 8.1 per cent in 2005-06, reflecting a significant growth in profit. The public sector, which started posting positive saving rate beginning 2003-04, recorded a saving rate of 2.0 per cent in 2005-06, on account of continuing fiscal improvement. 2.12 The rate of gross domestic capital formation (GDCF), as a proportion to GDP at current market prices, increased sharply to 33.8 per cent in 2005-06 from 31.5 per cent in 2004-05 due to improvement in public investment as well as private cor porate

investment. The higher increase in the investment rate than the saving rate is reflected in a deficit of 1.3 per cent in the overall saving-investment balance in 2005-06 as compared with a deficit of 0.4 per cent in 2004-05 (Table 2.6 and Chart II.3). Agriculture 2.13 After witnessing a marked recovery during 2005-06, agricultural growth is expected to remain subdued during 2006-07, mainly on account of expected lower growth in foodgrains production. According to the Third Advance Estimates, the total foodgrains production during 2006-07 has been estimated at 211.8 million tonnes, indicating an increase of 1.5 per cent over the previous year (5.2 per cent).

Table 2.6: Saving-Investment Balance (At 1999-2000 prices)

(Per cent of GDP at current market prices) Item 1 Saving-Investment Balance (GDS-GDCF) Private Sector* Public Sector* Current Account Balance Memo: Valuables@ 1999-00 2 -1.1 7.7 -8.2 -1.0 0.8 2000-01 3 -0.6 8.8 -8.8 -0.6 0.7 2001-02 4 0.6 9.2 -8.9 0.7 0.6 2002-03 5 1.2 8.6 -6.6 1.2 0.6 2003-04 6 1.6 9.2 -5.2 2.3 0.9 2004-05P 7 -0.4 7.4 -4.7 -0.8 1.3 2005-06 QE 8 -1.3 6.9 -5.4 -1.3 1.2

P : Provisional. QE : Quick Estimates. GDS : Gross Domestic Saving. GDCF : Gross Domestic Capital Formation. * : Private and Public Investments refer to gross capital formation (GCF), unadjusted for errors and omissions. @ : Valuables covers the expenditure made on acquisition of valuables included in the GCF. Note: Derived from CSO and Reserve Bank of India data. Components may not add up to totals due to errors and omissions.

13

2005-06 (QE)

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

South-West Monsoon 2006 2.14 The vagaries of the South-West monsoon with regard to the time of onset as also its temporal and spatial distribution have a profound impact on the performance of the agriculture sector. As two-thirds of the cultivated area is still unirrigated, agronomic potential is largely determined by the progress and performance of the South-West monsoon. According to the long range forecast of India Meteorological Department (IMD) issued on June 30, 2006, the South-West monsoon rainfall for the country as a whole was expected to be around 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of +/4 per cent. However, the actual rainfall during the South-West monsoon was 99 per cent of the normal, resulting in replenishment of the moisture content of the soil as well as that of the reservoirs. 2.15 Although overall performance of the SouthWest monsoon 2006 turned out to be of the same order as that of the previous year, its spatial distribution was more uneven compared to the previous year. Of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, cumulative rainfall was excess/normal in 26 sub-divisions (32 sub-divisions during last year) and deficient/scanty/no rain in 10 sub-divisions (4 sub-divisions during last year) (Table 2.7). During the season, rainfall was also not well distributed over time. Large rainfall deficiency was observed from the second to the fourth week of June and July, last week of August and during the middle of September 2006. The excess rainfall during the first three weeks of August, especially over Central India, was responsible for the revival of the rainfall scenario in the country. Table 2.7: Cumulative Rainfall
Number of Sub-Divisions Category South-West Monsoon 2004 2005 2006 North-East Monsoon 2004 2005 2006

2.16 The rainfall over the country as a whole was below normal in June (13 per cent below LPA) and near normal in July (2 per cent below LPA) and September (1 per cent below LPA). However, the monsoon was active in August with excess rainfall (5 per cent above LPA). Thus, the South-West monsoon rainfall witnessed deficiency only during the month of June and remained close to normal in the subsequent months. Among the four homogenous regions, the South-West monsoon rainfall was deficient in North-East India, North-West India and Souther n Peninsula, which recorded rainfall of 83 per cent, 94 per cent and 95 per cent of LPA, respectively. The near normal performance of the South-West monsoon rainfall over the country was contributed mainly by the excess rainfall over Central India (116 per cent of LPA). At the subdivision level, five sub-divisions (Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya, Western Uttar Pradesh and Haryana) experienced moderate drought 1 conditions at the end of the season. Of the 533 meteorological districts, 130 districts (25 per cent) experienced moderate drought, while 30 districts (6 per cent) experienced severe drought conditions at the end of the season. Reservoir Status 2.17 The Central Water Commission monitors the total live water storage in 76 major reser voirs accounting for around 63 per cent of the total reservoir capacity of the country. At the end of the South-West monsoon season (as on September 28, 2006), the reservoir position with total live water storage at 91 per cent of the Full Reservoir Level (FRL) was higher than the previous years position (81 per cent) and the last ten years average (71 per cent). The comfortable reservoir position is likely to augur well for the rabi crop production as well as hydroelectricity generation during 2006-07. As on April 12, 2007, the total live water storage was 35 per cent (32 per cent as on March 29, 2006) of the FRL. In view of the near normal performance of the South-West monsoon and improvement in the water storage levels, the Ministry of Agriculture set the target for the total foodgrains production during 2006-07 at 220 million tonnes, higher than the target of 215 million tonnes during the previous year (Table 2.8).

(Jun. 1 to Sep. 30) 1 Excess Normal Deficient Scanty/No Rain 2 0 23 13 0 3 9 23 4 0 4 6 20 10 0

(Oct. 1 to Dec. 31) 5 8 10 17 1 6 11 6 5 14 7 3 6 14 13

Source : India Meteorological Department.

According to IMD, the departure of aridity index from the normal value is expressed in percentage and accordingly drought is categorised as severe (more than 50 per cent), moderate (26-50 per cent) and mild (up to 25 per cent).

14

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

Table 2.8: Crop-wise Targets/Achievements

(Million tonnes) Crops 2004-05 T 1 2 A 3 2005-06 T 4 87.8 75.5 36.5 15.2 215.0 26.6 237.5 16.5 11.3 A 5 91.8 69.4 34.1 13.4 208.6 28.0 281.2 18.5 10.8 2006-07 T 6 AE 7

Kharif 2006 2.19 Against the backdrop of a normal monsoon, production of foodgrains during kharif 2005 (109.9 million tonnes) registered a growth of 6.3 per cent over that in the previous year. According to the Third Advance Estimates, the kharif foodgrains production during 2006-07 has been estimated at 108.4 million tonnes, a decline of 1.4 per cent over the previous year (Table 2.9). Among kharif foodgrains, while the production of coarse cereals (6.5 per cent) and pulses (0.8 per cent) witnessed a decline, that of rice (0.3 per cent) registered a marginal improvement over the previous year. After witnessing a sharp recovery during 2005-06, production of kharif oilseeds is expected to witness a sharp decline during 2006-07. However, with the continued growth momentum since 2003-04, sugarcane and cotton are expected to scale new peaks during 2006-07. Rabi 2006-07 2.20 Total foodgrains production during rabi 200506 increased by 3.7 million tonnes to 98.7 million tonnes (Table 2.9). Consequently, the overall foodgrains production for 2005-06 at 208.6 million tonnes registered a growth of 5.2 per cent over the previous year. Favourable soil moisture conditions along with remunerative open market and support prices led to improved sowing position during rabi 2006-07. Area sown under rabi crops so far (up to April 27, 2007) has been about 2.2 per cent higher than that a year ago. Barring oilseeds and rice, all major crop groups have witnessed improvement in

Rice 93.5 83.1 Wheat 79.5 68.6 Coarse cereals 36.8 33.5 Pulses 15.3 13.1 Total Foodgrains 225.1 198.4 Oilseeds 26.2 24.4 Sugarcane 270.0 237.1 Cotton* 15.0 16.4 Jute & Mesta** 11.8 10.3

92.8 91.1 75.5 73.7 36.5 32.9 15.2 14.1 220.0 211.8 29.4 23.3 270.0 322.9 18.5 21.0 11.3 11.3

T : Target. A : Achievement. AE : Third Advance Estimates as on April 4, 2007. * : In million bales of 170 kilograms each. ** : In million bales of 180 kilograms each. Source : Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India.

North-East Monsoon 2006 2.18 Cumulative rainfall recorded during the NorthEast monsoon (October 1, 2006 to December 31, 2006) was 21 per cent below normal as compared with 10 per cent above nor mal dur ing the corresponding period of the previous year. Of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions, cumulative rainfall was excess/normal in 9 sub-divisions (17 sub-divisions during last year) and deficient/scanty/no rainfall in 27 sub-divisions (19 sub-divisions during last year) (Table 2.7).

Table 2.9: Season-wise Agricultural Production

(Million tonnes) Kharif Crop 1 Rice Wheat Coarse Cereals Pulses Total Foodgrains Oilseeds Sugarcane Cotton* Jute & Mesta** 2004-05 A 2 72.2 .. 26.4 4.7 103.3 14.1 237.1 16.4 10.3 2005-06 A 3 78.3 .. 26.7 4.9 109.9 16.8 281.2 18.5 10.8 2006-07 AE 4 78.5 .. 25.0 4.8 108.4 13.9 322.9 21.0 11.3 2004-05 A 5 10.9 68.6 7.1 8.4 95.1 10.2 .. .. .. Rabi 2005-06 A 6 13.5 69.4 7.3 8.5 98.7 11.2 .. .. .. 2006-07 AE 7 12.5 73.7 7.9 9.3 103.4 9.4 .. .. ..

A : Achievement. AE : Third Advance Estimates (2006-07) as on April 4, 2007. .. : Not Available. * : In million bales of 170 kilograms each. ** : In million bales of 180 kilograms each. Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India.

15

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

the area sown. According to the Ministr y of Agriculture, Government of India, the less coverage under oilseeds was mainly due to diversion of area from rapeseed and mustard to bengal gram in Madhya Pradesh and to wheat in Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. 2.21 Timely sowing of the rabi crops along with improvement in area sown have brightened the prospects of rabi crops during 2006-07. Accordingly, the Third Advance Estimates have placed the rabi foodgrains production at 103.4 million tonnes, an

increase of 4.8 per cent over the previous year. Total production of wheat is expected at 73.7 million tonnes, an increase of 6.3 per cent over the previous year. Procurement, Offtake and Stocks of Foodgrains 2.22 The procurement of foodgrains (rice and wheat) during 2006-07 at 35.9 million tonnes was lower by 13.2 per cent over the corresponding period of the preceding year (Table 2.10). This was mainly on account of a significantly lower procurement of wheat at 9.2 million tonnes during 2006-07 as against
(Million Tonnes)

Table 2.10: Management of Foodstocks

Year/ Month Opening Stock of Foodgrains 2 Foodgrains Procurement 3 Foodgrains offtake PDS 4 OWS 5 OMS - Domestic 6 Exports 7 Closing Stock 8 Buffer Stock Norms $ 9

1 2005 April May June July August September October November December 2006 January February March April May June July August September October November December 2007 January February March April May* Memo : 2005-06 @ 2006-07 @ 2007-08 *

18.0 28.5 27.9 25.1 21.4 18.4 15.5 19.8 19.0 19.3 19.5 18.3 16.6 22.8 22.3 20.5 17.1 15.5 12.6 18.6 17.8 17.5 18.1 19.1 .. ..

14.2 3.0 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.4 7.5 2.7 2.9 4.0 2.9 1.9 10.3 2.2 1.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 8.0 2.0 2.6 4.3 2.4 1.2 8.7 1.4

2.4 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.3 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.9 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 .. .. ..

1.0 0.8 1.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 .. .. ..

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. .. ..

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 .. .. ..

28.5 27.9 25.1 21.4 18.4 15.5 19.8 19.0 19.3 19.5 18.3 16.6 22.8 22.3 20.5 17.1 15.5 12.6 18.6 17.8 17.5 18.1 19.1 .. .. ..

16.2

26.9

16.2

20.0

16.2

26.9

16.2

20.0

16.2

18.0 16.6 ..

41.4 35.9 10.1

28.6 28.9 ..

8.9 4.6 ..

0.9 0.0 ..

0.0 0.0 ..

18.3 19.1 ..

PDS : Public Distribution System. OWS : Other Welfare Schemes. OMS : Open Market Sales. $ : Minimum Buffer Stock norms to be maintained, as on 1st April, 1st July, 1st October and 1st January, revised under New Buffer Stocking Policy with effect from March 29, 2005. * : Procurement up to May 8, 2007. @ : Offtake up to end-February and closing stock as on March 1. .. : Not Available. Note : Closing Stock figures may differ from those arrived at by adding the opening stocks and procurement and deducting, offtake as stocks include coarse grains also. Source : Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution, Government of India.

16

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

14.8 million tonnes during the corresponding period of the previous year. Similarly, the offtake of rice and wheat during 2006-07 (April 1 to February 28, 2007) was lower by 12.7 per cent over the comparable period of the previous year. The decline in offtake was mainly due to a sharp fall in the offtake under Other Welfare Schemes (OWS). Furthermore, the offtake of wheat under the Targeted Public Distribution System (TPDS) also declined by 14.5 per cent. Total stocks of foodgrains with Food Corporation of India and other Government agencies at 19.1 million tonnes as on March 1, 2007 were 4.3 per cent higher as compared with 18.3 million tonnes in the corresponding period of last year. During 2007-08 so far (up to May 8, 2007), total procurement of wheat and rice at 10.1 million tonnes was 7.5 per cent lower than 11.0 million tonnes procured during the corresponding period of the previous financial year. Recent Policy Initiatives 2.23 With a view to achieving the target of around 4.0 per cent agricultural growth as envisaged in the Approach Paper to the Eleventh Plan, a number of new initiatives were undertaken by the Government during last year for redressing the problems afflicting the agriculture sector. These, inter alia, were (i) creation of a National Rain-fed Area Authority in November 2006 to suppor t upgradation and management of dry-land and rain-fed agriculture; (ii) for mulation of a model law on agricultural marketing in consultation with the State Governments/ UTs to bring about marketing reforms; (iii) package for revival of Short-term Rural Co-operative Credit Structure in January 2006; (iv) interest subvention to enable lending for crop loans up to a principal amount of Rs.3 lakh at 7.0 per cent rate of interest beginning Kharif 2006-07; (v) special relief package for farmers in 31 high incidence districts of farmers suicides in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Kerala; and (vi) launch of National Agricultural Innovation Project in July 2006 aimed at enhancing livelihood security by involving farmer groups, Panchayati Raj institutions and the private sector. 2.24 To promote more broad-based and inclusive growth, the Union Budget, 2007-08 has placed the acceleration of agricultural growth at the top of the Governments agenda. The Budget has fixed a farm credit target of Rs.2,25,000 crore for the ensuing financial year with an objective of bringing 5 million new farmers into the fold of the banking system. In order to augment resources to refinance rural credit co-operatives, NABARD has been permitted to issue 17

rural bonds of Rs.5,000 crore and RRBs have been asked to undertake a significant branch expansion programme. Further, the Budget has proposed to extend the Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interest (SARFAESI) Act to loans advanced by RRBs; permit RRBs to accept NRE/FCNR deposits; and recapitalise, in a phased programme, the RRBs which have a negative net worth. A Fund with NABARD for meeting the cost of developmental and promotional interventions and a Technology Fund to meet the costs of technology adoption has been proposed in the Budget for promoting financial inclusion. 2.25 The National Commission on Farmers had drawn attention to the knowledge deficit, which constrains agricultural productivity. Farming practices in large parts of the country are sub-optimal. The Union Budget, 2007-08 has highlighted the need for establishing a good extension system to make full use of the existing technology in the agriculture sector. The Budget has also proposed to (i) expand the Integrated Oilseeds, Oil palm, Pulses and Maize Development Programme; (ii) enhance outlay under Accelerated Irrigation Benefit Programme (AIBP); and (iii) restore water bodies and groundwater recharge for improving the productivity of crops. Industry 2.26 The industrial sector expanded at a robust pace for the fifth year in succession during 2006-07. The upswing in the industrial sector was driven mainly by manufacturing activity, which contributes more than 90 per cent to the industrial growth. During 2006-07, the IIP registered an accelerated double digit growth of 11.3 per cent the highest since 1995-96 (13.1 per cent) (Table 2.11). Strong consumption demand, expansion in investment and capacity additions were the main factors that contributed to the accelerated growth. The growth was well-diversified across all the sectors. A significant pick-up in the intermediate goods sector in recent months underlines the new acquired dynamism and competitiveness of the Indian industry. The continued buoyant performance of the basic and the capital goods sectors provides a basis for sustained high industrial growth. 2.27 During 2006-07, the manufacturing sector recorded a growth of 12.3 per cent, which has been the highest since 1995-96, when it recorded a growth of 14.1 per cent. The mining sector recorded a higher growth of 5.1 per cent, benefiting from higher production of crude oil. Higher output of crude oil

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 2.11: Monthly Growth of IIP

(Per cent) General Month/Weight (100.00) 2005-06 1 April May June July August September October November December January February March April-March 2 8.1 10.8 12.2 4.7 7.6 7.2 9.8 6.0 5.7 8.5 8.8 8.9 8.2 2006-07 3 9.9 11.7 9.7 13.2 10.3 12.0 4.5 15.8 13.4 11.4 10.8 12.9 11.3 Electricity (10.17) 2005-06 4 3.1 10.5 9.6 -0.9 7.9 -0.8 7.7 3.4 3.4 6.4 9.1 3.4 5.2 2006-07 5 5.9 5.0 4.9 8.9 4.1 11.3 9.7 8.7 9.1 8.3 3.3 7.9 7.2 Mining & Quarrying (10.47) 2005-06 6 2.8 5.2 4.8 -1.9 -2.5 -1.9 -0.1 -2.1 -0.1 2.0 3.8 2.0 1.0 2006-07 7 3.4 2.9 4.7 5.1 -1.7 4.3 5.9 8.8 6.1 7.2 7.1 6.2 5.1 Manufacturing (79.36) 2005-06 8 9.2 11.3 13.2 6.0 8.5 8.9 10.9 7.0 6.4 9.4 9.2 10.1 9.1 2006-07 9 11.0 13.3 10.7 14.3 11.9 12.7 3.8 17.2 14.5 12.1 11.9 14.1 12.3

Source: Central Statistical Organisation.

reflected the recovery from the setback to production, following the outbreak of fire at Mumbai High in July 2005. The electricity sector recorded a higher growth of 7.2 per cent during the period, reflecting mainly the higher plant load factor (PLF) in thermal power plants and double-digit growth in hydro-power generation.

2.28 A notable feature of industrial growth in recent years has been the continued buoyancy of the manufacturing sector. Dur ing 2006-07, 16 manufacturing industry groups (in terms of 2-digit level classification) recorded a positive growth (Table 2.12). Significantly, two industries constituting around 24 per cent weight in IIP, viz., machinery and

Table 2.12: Growth of Manufacturing Industries (2-digit level Classification) (April-March 2006-07)
Above 15 per cent 1 1. Wood and wood products, furniture and fixtures (29.1) 2. Basic metal and alloy (22.8) 10-15 per cent 2 1. Transport equipment and parts (14.9) 2. Cotton textiles (14.8) 3. Machinery and equipment other than transport equipment (14.0) 4. Non-metallic mineral products (12.8) 5. Rubber, plastic, petroleum and coal products (12.7) 6. Metal products and parts (11.4) 7. Beverages, tobacco and related products (11.3) 8. Textiles products (including apparels) (11.2) Note : Figures in parentheses are growth rates. Source : Central Statistical Organisation. 1. 0-10 per cent 3 Chemicals and chemical products except products of petroleum and coal (9.2) Paper and paper products (8.3) Wool, silk and man-made fibre textiles (8.2) Food products (8.2) Other manufacturing industries (6.5) Leather and leather & fur products (0.3) 1. Negative 4 Jute and other vegetable fibre textiles (-17.2)

2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

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RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

Table 2.13: Sectoral Contribution to IIP Growth (April-March)

(Per cent) Industry Group Weight in IIP 1 Basic Goods Capital Goods Intermediate Goods Consumer Goods (a+b) a) Consumer Durables b) Consumer Non-durables IIP 2 35.57 9.26 26.51 28.66 5.36 23.3 100.0 2004-05 3 5.5 13.9 6.1 11.7 14.3 10.8 8.4 Growth 2005-06 4 6.7 15.8 2.5 12.0 15.3 11.0 8.2 2006-07 P 5 10.2 17.7 11.7 10.0 9.0 10.3 11.3 2004-05 6 20.9 16.4 20.3 42.6 12.9 29.6 100.0 Relative Contribution 2005-06 7 25.4 20.0 8.4 46.3 14.9 31.4 100.0 2006-07 P 8 27.5 17.4 26.7 28.7 6.7 22.0 100.0

P : Provisional. Source : Central Statistical Organisation.

equipments, and chemicals and chemical products contributed 32.9 per cent to the manufacturing sector growth during 2006-07. Metal products and parts, wood and wood products, leather and leather and fur products, paper and paper products and wool, silk and man-made fibre textiles made a turnaround, while jute and other vegetable fibre textiles recorded negative growth during the year. 2.29 The performance of industry in terms of usebased classification was equally impressive during 2006-07. The basic goods sector recorded a growth of 10.2 per cent the highest growth since 1995-96 (Table 2.13). The accelerated growth of cement, high speed diesel and various other iron and steel products such as carbon steel, bars and rods, pipes and tubes, structurals, etc., contributed to higher growth of the basic goods sector. Growth of the intermediate goods sector at 11.7 per cent has also been the highest since 1995-96 (19.3 per cent). The growth was driven largely by the higher growth of some yarns, polyester fibre, viscose staple fibre,

PVC pipes and tubes and glazed tiles/ceramic tiles. The capital goods sector also recorded a high growth of 17.7 per cent during 2006-07 as compared with 15.8 per cent during 2005-06 and was sustained by complete tractors, boilers, diesel engines, textile machinery, material handling equipment, protection system/switch board, and process-control instruments. The consumer goods sector recorded a moderately lower growth of 10.0 per cent during 2006-07 as compared with 12.0 per cent during the corresponding period of the previous year. This was on account of the decelerated growth of both consumer durables and non-durables mainly due to negative performance of some of the food products and edible oils and some drugs. Infrastructure 2.30 During 2006-07, the overall growth of core infrastructure industries at 8.6 per cent (as compared with 6.2 per cent during 2005-06) was the highest since 1999-00 (Table 2.14). The higher growth was

Table 2.14: Growth Rate of Infrastructure Industries

(Per cent) Sector 1 1. Electricity 2. Coal 3. Finished Steel 4. Cement 5. Crude Petroleum 6. Petroleum Refinery Products Composite Index Weight in IIP 2 10.17 3.22 5.13 1.99 4.17 2.00 26.68 2002-03 3 3.2 4.5 7.3 8.8 3.4 4.9 5.0 2003-04 4 5.1 5.1 9.8 6.1 0.7 8.2 6.1 2004-05 5 5.2 6.2 8.4 6.6 1.8 4.3 5.8 2005-06 7 5.2 6.6 11.2 12.4 -5.3 2.4 6.2 2006-07 (P) 8 7.2 5.9 10.9 9.1 5.6 12.6 8.6

Source: Office of the Economic Adviser, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Government of India.

19

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

mainly a reflection of strong growth of electricity and petroleum refinery products and turnaround in the growth of crude petroleum during the period. Amongst the core sector groups, petroleum refinery products recorded the highest growth of 12.6 per cent during the period. 2.31 Despite strong domestic demand, a high base contributed to a double-digit but moderate growth in steel output. Rising domestic and external demand continued to underpin the growth of the cement sector, notwithstanding some moderation on account of the base effect. Negative growth in coal production in September resulted in a lower growth in the coal sector during the year. Crude petroleum recorded a turnaround due to restoration of production of crude oil in ONGC plant at Mumbai High and rise in crude oil production in private and joint-venture companies. Higher capacity utilisation in various refineries across the country and higher exports of petroleum refinery products enabled the petroleum refinery products sector to register an impressive growth. Services Sector 2.32 Indias growth over the past few years has been driven primarily by the services sector. The services sector continued to grow at a robust pace of 10.3 per cent during 2005-06 on top of 10.0 per cent growth in 2004-05. The services sector maintained the growth momentum and recorded an impressive double-digit growth (10.7) during April-December 2006, despite a higher base (9.8 per cent during the same period in 2005). The acceleration in the growth was led by trade, hotels, transpor t and communication, which recorded the highest growth of 13.3 per cent among the sub-sectors during the period (Table 2.15).

2.33 Enhanced synergy with the industrial sector as well as the robust economic condition have spurred the strong growth of trade, transpor tation, communication, construction and financial services. The trade sector recorded a double-digit growth as both exports and imports grew at a strong pace. Rapid growth in domestic and international tourism, both business and leisure, aided the growth of the hotel industry. Burgeoning revenue earning freight traffic of railways and robust growth of aviation sector propped up the transport sector. Strong growth in the cellular subscriber base and steady growth in broadband connections underpinned the strong growth in the communication sector. The financing, insurance, real estate and business services subsector benefited from the healthy growth in bank deposits and non-food credit, surge in insurance business of both public and private insurance companies, and increased business process outsourcing-information technology enabled services exports. Community, social and personal services sub-sector recorded a higher growth due to increase in both plan and non-plan expenditure. Information Technology Enabled Services and Business Process Outsourcing 2.34 The export-oriented information technology (IT) and business process outsourcing (BPO) sectors continued to perform well due to growing international demand for skilled, low-cost English-speaking Indian wor kers. The Infor mation Technology Enabled Services (ITES) and BPO segments have contributed significantly in sustaining the growth of the services sector. According to the National Association of Software and Services Companies (NASSCOM), ITES-BPO revenue increased significantly in 2005-06 to US$ 29.6 billion on account of a rapid growth in

Table 2.15: Quarterly Growth Performance of Sub-Sectors of Services (Base: 1999-2000)

(Per cent) Sub-sector Q1 1 Construction Trade, hotels, transport & communication Financing, insurance, real estate & business services Community, social & personal services Services GDP at factor cost Source: Central Statistical Organisation. 2 12.4 11.7 9.7 11.2 11.2 8.1 2004-05 Q2 3 8.5 12.2 8.4 5.1 9.1 6.9 Q3 4 14.5 10.2 10.6 8.9 10.4 5.5 Q4 5 13.5 11.0 10.7 12.7 11.6 8.6 Q1 6 12.7 10.2 8.9 7.5 9.5 8.4 2005-06 Q2 7 11.3 9.5 10.6 7.9 9.5 8.0 Q3 8 16.6 10.0 9.8 8.3 10.3 9.3 Q4 9 12.0 12.9 10.5 7.6 11.0 9.3 Q1 10 9.5 13.1 9.0 7.4 10.4 8.9 2006-07 Q2 11 9.8 13.8 9.5 6.9 10.7 9.2 Q3 12 9.8 13.0 11.6 7.5 11.1 8.6

20

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

demand from overseas and domestic consumers. The exports of Indian IT-ITES industry increased by 33 per cent, generating revenues of US$ 23.6 billion in 2005-06 as compared with US$ 17.7 billion in 2004-05. Factors such as evolution of global delivery model and unbundling of large IT outsourcing deals with large companies based in India contributed to the buoyant export performance. Indias strength in the IT enabled and BPO segments has increased in recent years through large client wins, cross-border mergers and acquisitions, and movement of the industry towards a stable pricing model. Industrial Outlook 2.35 The Industr ial sector, which perfor med consistently well in recent years remained buoyant during 2006-07, underpinned by strong consumption demand, expansion in investment and capacity additions. The performance of the mining sector improved in 2006-07. It is expected to put up a modest growth as the recent de-blocking of coal reserves for captive consumption by steel and power companies would push up the coal production activity in the country. The power sector continues to suffer from gas supply shortages, which has forced gas-based plants to operate at lower capacity. Growth of the manufacturing sector is well-diversified. Considering the buoyant industrial climate in the country, growth in the manufacturing sector is expected to be sustained at a double-digit level. II. FISCAL SITUATION Central Government Finances 2.36 The Union Budget, 2007-08 was presented against the backdrop of strong macroeconomic fundamentals, albeit with some concerns on the inflation front. The Budget commits to fur ther strengthen the fiscal correction as stipulated in the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Rules, 2004 with the proposed reductions in the revenue deficit and fiscal deficit, while at the same time allocating higher funds for social sector expenditure. 2.37 The major thrust of the Budget, 2007-08 was on attaining faster and more inclusive growth. In order to achieve the objective of inclusive growth, bulk of the budgetary resources have been allocated to eight flagship programmes of the Government covering the
2

areas of education, health and rural employment. In order to sustain the growth momentum, the budget has proposed policies aimed at tapping extra budgetar y resources and leveraging them for investment, especially the infrastructure. 2.38 The budget seeks to continue the impressive performance on the tax front through a strategy of moderate and stable tax rates and administering the tax laws in a tax payer-friendly manner. In the case of direct taxes the strategy is to (a) minimise the distortions within the tax structure by rationalising the tax structure and expanding the tax base and maintaining moderate tax rates; and (b) improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the tax administration so as to enhance voluntary compliance through a higher deterrence level. The strategy of indirect taxes is to bring down the customs tariff to the comparable levels of East Asian countries, widen the tax base and converge the excise duty to the CENVAT rate. In the case of service tax, the strategy is to expand the tax base, while at the same time provide exemption to small service providers. In the case of indirect taxes, tax policy was aimed at containing the inflationary pressures in the economy and taking steps for introducing the fully integrated goods and services tax by April 1, 2010. Revised Estimates 2006-07
2

2.39 The revised estimates for 2006-07 showed improvement in all the key deficit indicators, viz., revenue deficit (RD), gross fiscal deficit (GFD) and primary deficit (PD) relative to GDP over their budgeted levels. Reduction in deficit indicators was mainly on account of improved revenue receipts, both tax and non-tax, which more than offset the higher expenditure. Aggregate expenditure was higher than the budget estimates on account of revenue expenditure, par ticularly on interest payments, fertilizer and interest subsidies, and non-plan nondefence capital outlay. Plan expenditure was in line with the budget estimates. 2.40 The revenue deficit in the revised estimates constituted 2.0 per cent of the GDP in 2006-07 as against the budgeted level of 2.1 per cent. The decline in revenue deficit was on account of a marked improvement in revenue receipts by Rs.19,866 crore (4.9 per cent) which offset the increase in revenue expenditure. Notwithstanding the fall in revenue deficit, the GFD was higher by Rs.3,642 crore (2.4

All comparisons of 2006-07 in this Section are with budget estimates, unless stated otherwise.

21

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 2.16: Key Deficit Indicators of the Central Government

(Amount in Rupees crore) Item 2005-06 (Accounts) 2 1,46,435 (4.1) 92,299 (2.6) 13,805 (0.4) 2006-07 (BE) 3 1,48,686 (3.8) 84,727 (2.1) 8,863 (0.2) 2006-07 (RE) 4 1,52,328 (3.7) 83,436 (2.0) 6,136 (0.1) 2007-08 (BE) 5 1,50,948 (3.3) 71,478 (1.5) -8,047 (-0.2) Variation (Per cent) col.4 over 3 6 2.4 -1.5 -30.8 col. 5 over 4 7 -0.9 -14.3 -231.1

1 Gross Fiscal Deficit Revenue Deficit Gross Primary Deficit

BE : Budget Estimates. RE : Revised Estimates. Note: Figures in parentheses are percentages to GDP.

per cent) than the budgeted level on account of a fall in non-debt capital receipts as well as higher nonplan non-defence capital outlay. In relation to GDP, however, it was lower at 3.7 per cent than the budget estimates of 3.8 per cent. Primary deficit at 0.1 per cent of GDP was lower by 30.8 per cent in the revised estimates for 2006-07 than the budget estimates (Table 2.16). 2.41 Revenue receipts in the revised estimates for 2006-07 increased by 4.9 per cent over the budgeted level. The gross tax revenue in the revised estimates for 2006-07 was higher by Rs.25,695 crore than the budget estimates. Collections under all the taxes are set to be higher than the budgeted level. Among the recently introduced taxes, fringe benefit tax is estimated to yield Rs.5,500 crore, Secur ities Transactions Tax (STT) Rs.3,750 crore and banking cash transaction tax Rs.550 crore in 2006-07. The net tax revenue [gross tax revenue less States share in Central taxes and amount transferred to National Calamity Contingency Fund (NCCF)] increased by 5.7 per cent and constituted 8.4 per cent of the GDP (Table 2.17). 2.42 Under non-debt capital receipts, recoveries of loans and advances declined by 31.9 per cent over the budget estimates (Table 2.17). Recoveries of loans to the State Governments are estimated to decline by Rs.4,102 crore in the revised estimates for 2006-07 due to the impact of the debt waiver under the Twelfth Finance Commission (TFC) award. Recoveries from Public Sector Enterprises, statutory bodies, etc., are, however, estimated to increase by Rs.1,596 crore.
3

2.43 Revenue expenditure in the revised estimates for 2006-07 was higher by 3.8 per cent than the budget estimates, while capital expenditure declined by 1.2 per cent over the budget estimates (Table 2.18). Revenue expenditure was higher on account of interest payments, fertiliser and interest subsidies, grants to the States and pensions. In the capital expenditure, non-defence capital outlay and loans and advances were higher than the budget estimates. Budget Estimates 2007-08
3

2.44 After achieving the targets in the preceding year, the Union Budget for 2007-08 proposes to further strengthen the fiscal correction as stipulated in FRBM Rules, 2004. Accordingly, key deficit indicators, viz., revenue deficit (RD), gross fiscal deficit (GFD) and primary deficit (PD), as per cent of GDP, are budgeted lower at 1.5 per cent, 3.3 per cent and -0.2 per cent in 2007-08 than 2.0 per cent, 3.7 per cent and 0.1 per cent, respectively, in the preceding year (Table 2.16). The Union Budget, 200708 proposes to acquire the Reserve Banks equity holding in State Bank of India, for which it provided a sum of Rs.40,000 crore. This transaction, however, being shown as a non-debt capital receipt matched by capital expenditure, would not have an impact on the deficit indicators. 2.45 The revenue receipts in 2007-08 are budgeted to increase by 14.9 per cent on top of a high growth of 21.8 per cent recorded in 2006-07, primarily reflecting a growth of 17.2 per cent in gross tax collections as compared with an increase of 27.8 per cent in 2006-07. Among the direct taxes, corporation

All comparisons of 2007-08 in this Section are with revised estimates for 2006-07, unless stated otherwise.

22

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

Table 2.17: Receipts of the Centre

(Amount in Rupees crore) Item 2005-06 (Accounts) 2006-07 (BE) 2006-07 (RE) 2007-08 (BE) Variation (per cent) Col.4 over 3 6 3.1 4.9 5.7 1.4 -1.4 Col.5 over 4 7 10.1 14.9 16.7 6.7 -2.7

1 Total Receipts (1+2) 1. Revenue Receipts i) Tax Revenue (Net) ii) Non-Tax Revenue 2. Capital Receipts of which: Market Borrowings Recoveries of Loans Disinvestment of Equity of Public Sector Undertakings Memo Items: Gross Tax Revenue of which: i) Corporation Tax ii) Taxes on Income other than Corporation Tax # iii) Customs Duty iv) Union Excise Duty v) Service Tax vi) Securities Transaction Tax vii) Banking Cash Transaction Tax viii) Taxes of UTs (Net of Assignments to Local Bodies) ix) Other Taxes

2 5,06,123 (14.2) 3,47,462 (9.7) 2,70,264 (7.6) 77,198 (2.2) 1,58,661 (4.4) 1,06,241 (3.0) 10,645 (0.3) 1,581 (0.0)

3 5,63,991 (14.3) 4,03,465 (10.2) 3,27,205 (8.3) 76,260 (1.9) 1,60,526 (4.1) 1,13,778 (2.9) 8,000 (0.2) 3,840 (0.1)

4 5,81,637 (14.2) 4,23,331 (10.3) 3,45,971 (8.4) 77,360 (1.9) 1,58,306 (3.9) 1,10,500 (2.7) 5,450 (0.1) 528 (0.0)

5 6,40,521 * (13.8) 4,86,422 (10.5) 4,03,872 (8.7) 82,550 (1.8) 1,54,099 * (3.3) 1,10,827 (2.4) 1,500 (0.0) 1,651 * (0.0)

-2.9 -31.9 -86.3

0.3 -72.5 212.7

3,66,152 (10.3) 1,01,277 (2.8) 60,749 (1.7) 65,067 (1.8) 1,11,226 (3.1) 23,055 (0.6) 2,559 (0.1) 321 (0.0) 1,125 (0.0) 773 (0.0)

4,42,153 (11.2) 1,33,010 (3.4) 73,409 (1.9) 77,066 (1.9) 1,19,000 (3.0) 34,500 (0.9) 3,500 (0.1) 500 (0.0) 903 (0.0) 265 (0.0)

4,67,848 (11.4) 1,46,497 (3.6) 78,210 (1.9) 81,800 (2.0) 1,17,266 (2.9) 38,169 (0.9) 3,750 (0.1) 550 (0.0) 1,341 (0.0) 265 (0.0)

5,48,122 (11.8) 1,68,401 (3.6) 93,629 (2.0) 98,770 (2.1) 1,30,220 (2.8) 50,200 (1.1) 4,500 (0.1) 645 (0.0) 1,442 (0.0) 315 (0.0)

5.8

17.2

10.1 6.5 6.1 -1.5 10.6 7.1 10.0 48.5 0.0

15.0 19.7 20.7 11.0 31.5 20.0 17.3 7.5 18.9

BE : Budget Estimates. RE : Revised Estimates. * : Adjusted for an amount of Rs.40,000 crore on account of transactions relating to transfer of Reserve Banks stake in SBI to the Government. # : Includes Fringe Benefit Tax. Note: Figures in parentheses are percentages to GDP.

tax collections are expected to increase by 15.0 per cent in 2007-08 as compared with an increase of 44.6 per cent in 2006-07. Revenue from the personal income tax is estimated to grow by 19.4 per cent as compared with an increase of 29.9 per cent in 2006-07. In the case of indirect taxes, the collections under 23

customs duty are budgeted to increase by 20.7 per cent as compared with 25.7 per cent, a year ago. Excise duty collections are, however, budgeted to show a higher growth of 11.0 per cent from 5.4 per cent. Non-tax revenues (NTR) are budgeted to increase to Rs.82,550 crore in 2007-08 from

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 2.18: Expenditure Pattern of the Centre

(Amount in Rupees crore) Item 2005-06 (Accounts) 2006-07 (BE) 2006-07 (RE) 2007-08 (BE) Variation (per cent) Col.4 over 3 6 3.1 3.8 4.6 15.7 2.2 0.0 -1.2 9.5 -8.0 4.2 Col.5 over 4 7 10.1 10.1 8.8 1.6 6.2 4.9 10.4 -22.7 21.7 8.1

1 Aggregate Expenditure (1+2) 1. Revenue Expenditure Interest Payments Subsidies Grants to States Defence Revenue 2. Capital Expenditure Loans and Advances Defence Capital Non-defence Capital Outlay

2 5,06,123 (14.2) 4,39,761 (12.3) 1,32,630 (3.7) 47,520 (1.3) 30,475 (0.9) 48,211 (1.4) 66,362 (1.9) 11,337 (0.3) 32,338 (0.9) 22,687 (0.6)

3 5,63,991 (14.3) 4,88,192 (12.4) 1,39,823 (3.5) 46,213 (1.2) 35,361 (0.9) 51,542 (1.3) 75,799 (1.9) 8,861 (0.2) 37,458 (0.9) 29,480 (0.7)

4 5,81,637 (14.2) 5,06,767 (12.4) 1,46,192 (3.6) 53,463 (1.3) 36,152 (0.9) 51,542 (1.3) 74,870 (1.8) 9,706 (0.2) 34,458 (0.8) 30,706 (0.7)

5 6,40,521 * (13.8) 5,57,900 (12.0) 1,58,995 (3.4) 54,330 (1.2) 38,403 (0.8) 54,078 (1.2) 82,621 * (1.8) 7,498 (0.2) 41,922 (0.9) 33,201 * (0.7)

BE : Budget Estimates. RE : Revised Estimates. * : Adjusted for an amount of Rs.40,000 crore on account of transactions relating to transfer of Reserve Banks stake in SBI to the Government. Note : Figures in parentheses are percentages to GDP.

Rs.77,360 crore in 2006-07, reflecting higher revenues from dividends and profits (Table 2.17). Interest receipts, on the other hand, declined primarily on account of Centres disengagement from lending to the States, except for loans under externally aided projects in pursuance of the recommendation of Twelfth Finance Commission (TFC). The other factors behind lower interest receipts include reduced lending rate on loans to the States, operation of incentive linked debt restructuring of the States that enact fiscal responsibility legislation, the debt swap scheme which operated from 2002-03 to 2004-05 that allowed the States to pre-pay high cost debt and prepayments of loans by Central Public Sector Undertakings(CPSUs). 2.46 A salient feature of the fiscal consolidation process in recent years has been the Governments continued effort to control revenue expenditure. The revenue expenditure in 2007-08 is budgeted to show a growth of 10.1 per cent, lower than 15.2 per cent in 2006-07. Total subsidies are budgeted to increase by 1.6 per cent as against an increase of 12.5 per cent in 2006-07. Adjusting for Rs.40,000 crore proposed to be incurred on account of transactions relating to the transfer of Reserve Banks stake in State Bank of 24

India to the Government, the capital expenditure is budgeted to increase by 10.4 per cent in 2007-08 as against an increase of 12.8 per cent in 2006-07. Adjusted for transactions for purchasing the stake in the State Bank of India, the capital outlay is budgeted to increase by Rs.9,959 crore (15.3 per cent) as against an increase of Rs.10,139 crore (18.4 per cent) in 2006-07. The defence capital outlay is estimated to increase by Rs.7,464 crore and the non-defence capital outlay by Rs.2,495 crore (Table 2.18). 2.47 The net mar ket borrowings (excluding enabling allocations budgeted under MSS) would finance 73.4 per cent of the GFD in 2007-08 as compared with 72.5 per cent in the previous year. The budget estimates did not make any provision for drawdown of cash balances. Securities against small savings, which financed only 2.0 per cent of the GFD in 2006-07, are expected to finance 7.0 per cent in 2007-08 (Table 2.19). This increase reflects the reinvestment of redemptions proceeds as well as investment from small savings collections following the decision to reduce the minimum obligation of the States to borrow from NSSF to 80 per cent of net collections. External assistance is budgeted to finance

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

Table 2.19: Financing Pattern of Gross Fiscal Deficit

(Amount in Rupees crore) Item 1 Gross Fiscal Deficit Financed by : Market Borrowings NSSF investments in Securities against Small Savings External Assistance State Provident Fund NSSF Reserve Funds Deposit and Advances Postal Insurance and Life Annuity Funds Draw down of Cash Balances Others # 1,10,500 (72.5) 3,010 (2.0) 7,892 (5.2) 5,000 (3.3) -3,128 (-2.1) 4,265 (2.8) 11,647 (7.6) 1,237 (0.8) 10,926 (7.2) 979 (0.6) 1,10,827 (73.4) 10,510 (7.0) 9,111 (6.0) 5,000 (3.3) 17,850 (11.8) 738 (0.5) -2,411 (-1.6) 1,261 (0.8) 0 (0.0) -1,938 (-1.3) 2006-07(RE) 2 1,52,328 2007-08 (BE) 3 1,50,948

State Finances 2.48 The State Governments continued to pursue fiscal correction and consolidation programmes dur ing 2006-07. As per the latest infor mation available, Fiscal Responsibility Legislations (FRLs) have been enacted by 25 State Governments. By April 5, 2007 all States, barring Uttar Pradesh, implemented Value Added Tax (VAT) in lieu of sales tax. 2.49 The State Governments in their budgets for 2006-07 proposed various policy initiatives to carry forward the process of fiscal correction and consolidation. The States have emphasised fiscal empowerment through broadening and rationalisation of the tax system. Simultaneously, they have laid stress on improvement in tax administration, streamlining and strengthening of the existing tax and non-tax collections, plugging of revenue leakages and loopholes and effective expenditure management. Budget Estimates 2006-07 4 2.50 The consolidated position indicates that the State Governments have budgeted to achieve near revenue balance during 2006-07, notwithstanding some variation across the States. The budgeted reduction in revenue deficit will facilitate a decline of 0.5 percentage point in the GFD-GDP ratio from 3.2 per cent in 2005-06 (RE) to 2.7 per cent in 2006-07 (BE). Primary deficit is also budgeted to decline sharply to 0.2 per cent of GDP in 2006-07 from 0.7 per cent in the previous year (Table 2.20). The improvement in the fiscal position of the States during 2006-07 was facilitated by the larger grants

RE : Revised Estimates. BE : Budget Estimates. # : Includes savings (taxable) bonds 2003 and Deposits Scheme for Retiring Employees. Note : Figures in parentheses are percentages to GFD.

6.0 per cent of GFD compared with 5.2 per cent in the previous year.

Table 2.20: Major Deficit Indicators of the State Governments

(Amount in Rupees crore) Item 1990-95 (Avg.) 2 (2.8) Revenue Deficit (0.7) Primary Deficit (1.1) (1.4) (1.5) (1.6) (2.4) 1995-00 (Avg.) 3 (3.4) 2000-04 (Avg.) 4 (4.3) 2004-05 2005-06 (BE) 6 1,10,050 (3.1) 24,913 (0.7) 17,252 (0.5) 2005-06 (RE) 7 1,13,888 (3.2) 17,178 (0.5) 24,894 (0.7) 2006-07 (BE) 8 1,09,610 (2.7) 4,511 (0.1) 10,185 (0.2) Percentage variations Col.7/5 9 4.2 -52.8 17.0 Col.7/6 10 3.0 -31.0 44.3 Col.8/7 11 -3.8 -73.7 -59.1

1 Gross Fiscal Deficit

5 1,09,257 (3.5) 36,423 (1.2) 21,268 (0.7)

BE : Budget Estimates. RE : Revised Estimates. Avg. : Average. Note : 1. Figures in parentheses are percentages to GDP. 2. GDP from 1990-91 to 1998-99 are on old base (1993-94) and from 1999-2000 onwards on new base (1999-2000). 3. Data on GDP for 2006-07 are based on CSOs Advanced Estimates while for 2005-06 are based on Quick Estimates. Source : 1. Data on fiscal variables have been compiled from budget documents of State Governments. 2. Data for GDP have been obtained from the website of Central Statistical Organisation (CSO).

The analysis of State Finances for 2006-07 (Budget Estimates) is based on the budgets of 29 State Governments (including NCT Delhi).

25

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 2.21: Aggregate Receipts of the State Governments

(Amount in Rupees crore) Item 1990-95 (Avg.) 2 (16.1) 1. Total revenue receipts (a+b) (12.1) (a) States own Revenue (7.3) States own tax (5.4) States own non tax (1.8) (b) Central Transfers (4.9) Shareable taxes (2.6) Central Grants (2.3) 2. Capital Receipts (a+b) (4.0) (a) Loans from Centre @ (1.2) (b) Others Capital Receipts (2.9) (3.2) (5.0) (1.0) (1.0) (4.2) (6.0) (1.6) (1.9) (2.4) (2.4) (4.0) (4.2) (1.6) (1.4) (5.3) (5.7) (6.9) (7.1) (10.9) (11.3) 1995-00 (Avg.) 3 (15.1) 2000-04 (Avg.) 4 (17.4) 2004-05 2005-06 (BE) 6 5,80,092 (16.3) 4,30,679 (12.1) 2,61,796 (7.3) 2,15,246 (6.0) 46,550 (1.3) 1,68,883 (4.7) 90,002 (2.5) 78,882 (2.2) 1,49,413 (4.2) 31,216 (0.9) 1,18,197 (3.3) 2005-06 (RE) 7 6,13,379 (17.2) 4,54,243 (12.7) 2,71,518 (7.6) 2,24,817 (6.3) 46,702 (1.3) 1,82,725 (5.1) 92,723 (2.6) 90,002 (2.5) 1,59,136 (4.5) 10,911 (0.3) 1,48,224 (4.2) 2006-07 (BE) 8 6,72,116 (16.4) 5,20,148 (12.7) 3,10,540 (7.6) 2,57,203 (6.3) 53,337 (1.3) 2,09,608 (5.1) 1,09,419 (2.7) 1,00,188 (2.4) 1,51,969 (3.7) 13,525 (0.3) 1,38,443 (3.4) Percentage variations col.7/5 9 6.3 22.1 14.7 18.9 -1.8 34.9 18.0 58.3 -22.3 -58.3 -17.0 col.7/6 10 5.7 5.5 3.7 4.4 0.3 8.2 3.0 14.1 6.5 -65.0 25.4 col.8/7 11 9.6 14.5 14.4 14.4 14.2 14.7 18.0 11.3 -4.5 24.0 -6.6

1 Aggregate Receipts (1+2)

5 5,76,762 (18.4) 3,72,075 (11.9) 2,36,668 (7.6) 1,89,133 (6.0) 47,535 (1.5) 1,35,406 (4.3) 78,550 (2.5) 56,857 (1.8) 2,04,687 (6.5) 26,157 (0.8) 1,78,529 (5.7)

BE : Budget Estimates. RE : Revised Estimates. Avg. : Average. @ : With the change in the system of accounting with effect from 1999-2000, States share in small savings which was included earlier under loans from Centre is included under internal debt and shown as special securities issued to National Small Saving Fund (NSSF) of the Central Government. The data for the years prior to 1999-2000 as reported in this Table, however, exclude loans against small savings, for the purpose of comparability. Note : 1. Figures in parentheses are percentages to GDP. 2. GDP from 1990-91 to 1998-99 are on old base (1993-94) while the same is on new base (1999-2000) from 1999-2000 onwards. 3. Data on GDP for 2006-07 are based on CSOs Advanced Estimates while for 2005-06 are based on Quick Estimates. 4. Capital receipts include public accounts on a net basis. 5. Figures for 2005-06 (BE) and 2006-07 (BE) for revenue receipts are adjusted for Rs.742 crore and Rs.273 crore respectively towards Additional Resource Mobilisation measures proposed by the States. Source : 1. Data on fiscal variables have been compiled from budget documents of State Governments. 2. Data for GDP have been obtained from the website of Central Statistical Organisation (CSO).

and increase in shareable Central taxes, as recommended by the TFC. The sharp correction in revenue deficit during 2006-07 would emanate mainly from higher transfers from the Centre, especially the shareable Central taxes 5 (Table 2.21). Correction in revenue deficit during 2006-07 will also be facilitated
5

by a deceleration in revenue expenditure, partly on account of deceleration in expenditure on administrative services and pensions. Capital outlay is budgeted to decelerate during 2006-07, though, as a ratio to GDP, it would be maintained at 2.4 per cent. Developmental expenditure will decelerate

The Union Budget 2007-08 indicates an increase in transfers from the Central Government to the State Governments by Rs.10,391 crore (0.3 per cent of GDP) in 2006-07 (RE) over 2006-07(BE).

26

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

Table 2.22: Expenditure Pattern of the State Governments

(Amount in Rupees crore) Item 1990-95 (Avg.) 2 1995-00 (Avg.) 3 2000-04 (Avg.) 4 2004-05 2005-06 BE 6 5,78,891 (16.2) 4,55,593 (12.8) 93,298 (2.6) 1,23,299 (3.5) 77,048 (2.2) 3,26,482 (9.2) 2,11,447 (5.9) 40,962 (1.1) 2005-06 RE 7 6,07,753 (17.0) 4,71,421 (13.2) 88,994 (2.5) 1,36,332 (3.8) 85,350 (2.4) 3,62,300 (10.2) 2,03,189 (5.7) 42,265 (1.2) 2006-07 BE 8 6,68,129 (16.3) 5,24,658 (12.8) 99,425 (2.4) 1,43,471 (3.5) 96,506 (2.4) 3,92,926 (9.6) 2,30,225 (5.6) 44,978 (1.1) Percentage variations Col.7/5 9 7.3 15.4 Col.7/6 10 5.0 3.5 Col.8/7 11 9.9 11.3

1 Aggregate Expenditure (1+2 =3+4+5) 1. Revenue Expenditure of which: Interest payments

5 5,66,303 (18.1) 4,08,497 (13.1) 87,989 (2.8) 1,57,805 (5.0) 61,559 (2.0) 2,93,538 (9.4) 1,88,298 (6.0) 84,467 (2.7)

(16.0) (12.8)

(15.2) (12.6)

(17.3) (13.7)

1.1 -13.6

-4.6 10.6

11.7 5.2

(1.7) 2. Capital Expenditure of which: Capital outlay (1.6) 3. Developmental Expenditure (10.8) 4. Non-Developmental Expenditure (4.3) 5. Others* (0.9) (3.2)

(2.0) (2.7)

(2.8) (3.6)

38.6 23.4 7.9 -50.0

10.8 11.0 -3.9 3.2

13.1 8.5 13.3 6.4

(1.4) (9.6) (4.9) (0.8)

(1.6) (9.7) (6.0) (1.6)

BE : Budget Estimates. RE : Revised Estimates. Avg : Average. * : Comprises Compensation and Assignments to local bodies, Grants-in-Aid and Contributions, Reserve with Finance Department, Discharge of Internal Debt, Repayment of loans to the Centre till 2002-03. Since 2003-04, it also includes Inter-State Settlement, Contingency Fund, Small Savings, Provident Fund, etc., Reserve Funds, Deposit & Advances, Suspense & Miscellaneous, Appropriation to Contingency Fund and Remittances. Note : 1. Figures in parentheses are percentages to GDP. 2. GDP from 1990-91 to 1998-99 are on old base (1993-94) while the same is on new base (1999-2000) from 1999-2000 onwards. 3. Data on GDP for 2006-07 are based on CSOs Advanced Estimates while for 2005-06 are based on Quick Estimates. 4. Capital expenditure excludes public accounts. Source : 1. Data on fiscal variables have been compiled from budget documents of State Governments. 2. Data for GDP have been obtained from the website of Central Statistical Organisation (CSO).

during 2006-07 as against a sharp increase in the previous year (Table 2.22). 2.51 Decomposition of GFD indicates that fiscal deficit during 2006-07 was mainly on account of capital outlay as RD declined sharply. Small savings (NSSF) remained the major source of financing of the GFD, followed by market borrowings (Table 2.23). 2.52 The net allocation of market borrowings for all States during 2006-07 amounted to Rs.17,242 crore. The gross allocation of market borrowing was Rs.26,597 crore, including the additional allocation of Rs.2,803 crore. During 2006-07, total market borrowing raised by all States was Rs.20,825 crore. All the State Governments resorted to the auction 27

route for raising the market loans during 2006-07 (Table 2.24). 2.53 The weighted average interest rate of market loans of State Governments during 2006-07 was at 8.10 per cent as compared with 7.63 per cent during the previous year (Chart II.4). 2.54 The weekly average utilisation of ways and means advances (WMA) and overdrafts (OD) by the State Governments during 2006-07 was at Rs.234 crore as compared with the average utilisation of Rs.482 crore during the previous year, reflecting the comfortable liquidity position of the States. During 2006-07, only eight States resorted to normal WMA and two States resorted to OD (Chart II.5).

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 2.23: Decomposition and Financing Pattern of Gross Fiscal Deficit of the States
(per cent) Item 1 Decomposition (1 to 4) 1. Revenue Deficit 2. Capital Outlay 3. Net Lending 4. Disinvestments Financing (1 to 11) 1. Market Borrowings 2. Loans from Centre 3. Loans against Securities Issued to NSSF 4. Loans from LIC, NABARD, NCDC, SBI and Other Banks 5. State Provident Fund 6. Reserve Funds 7. Deposits & Advances 8. Suspense & Miscellaneous 9. Remittances 10. Overall Surplus (+)/Deficit (-) 11. Others 1990-95 (Avg.) 2 100 24.7 55.3 20.0 .. 100 16.0 49.0 1.8 14.3 6.8 9.8 4.3 -1.4 4.4 -5.0 1995-00 (Avg.) 3 100 44.8 43.3 12.2 -0.2 100 16.1 40.6 28.9 * 2.8 13.4 5.5 9.8 2.7 -3.6 -2.6 9.5 2000-04 (Avg.) 4 100 56.3 36.7 7.0 .. 100 24.6 7.8 35.4 4.9 8.3 4.5 3.4 -0.4 0.6 1.1 9.8 2004-05 5 100 33.3 56.3 10.3 .. 100 31.6 -10.8 62.2 ** 7.2 6.5 7.4 -2.4 1.1 9.6 -12.4 $ 2005-06 BE 6 100 22.5 69.7 7.8 .. 100 16.2 15.7 50.0 7.7 7.2 3.8 -2.5 -1.4 1.5 0.4 1.2 2005-06 RE 7 100 15.1 74.9 10.0 .. 100 16.4 1.9 65.4 4.9 7.9 2.9 -0.6 3.3 0.8 4.9 -7.9 2006-07 BE 8 100 4.1 88.0 8.8 -0.9 100 20.8 4.4 53.1 6.9 8.0 4.0 -1.1 3.3 1.8 3.6 -4.7

BE : Budget Estimates. RE : Revised Estimates. Avg. : Average. .. : Nil. : Not Applicable. * : Pertains to 1999-2000 as it was introduced from that year only. The sum of items will not be equal to 100 for 1995-2000 (Avg.). ** : Tamil Nadu has taken into their budget the bonds issued by Tamil Nadu Industrial Development Corporation (TIDCO) and Power Bonds of Tamil Nadu State Electricity Board showing negative figures for Loans from NCDC and Loans from Other Institutions. The consolidated picture has, therefore, undergone a change. $ : On account of Land Compensation and other Bonds (Rs.1,962 crore) issued by Government of Tamil Nadu during 2004-05. Note : 1. Due to the change in the accounting procedure from 1999-2000, Loans from the Centre excludes States share in small savings collections which is shown under Securities issued to the NSSF under Internal Debt. Accordingly, repayments of small saving collections included under repayments of Loans to Centre is now shown under discharge of Internal Debt to have consistent accounting for receipts and expenditure. 2. Figures for 2004-05 (Accounts) in respect of Jammu & Kashmir and Jharkhand relate to Revised Estimates. 3. Financing Items are on a net basis. 4. Others is a residual and includes, inter alia, Contingency Funds, Appropriation to Contingency Funds, Miscellaneous Capital Receipts, Inter-State Settlement, Land Compensation and Other Bonds and Loans from Financial Institutions other than mentioned in the Table. Source : Budget Documents of State Governments.

2.55 The weekly average investment by the States in the 14-day Intermediate Treasury Bills during 200607 amounted to Rs.43,075 crore as compared with the weekly average investment of Rs.35,278 crore during the corresponding period of the previous year (Chart II.6). The surge in surplus cash balances may pose challenges to cash and financial management by the State Governments. Outlook 2.56 With a view to improving transparency and efficiency in transactions of the Governments, many States have proposed to complete computerisation of their treasuries and also to introduce e-transfer for 28

the transactions. For improving accountability of budget proposals, some States have proposed to introduce Outcome Budgets. Furthermore, many State Governments have proposed to introduce Gender Budgeting. Some States have proposed comprehensive restructuring of State public sector undertakings, including closure of chronically lossmaking units for reducing budgetary support for them. Some States have announced introduction of new pension scheme based on defined contribution to arrest their rising pension obligations. Some States have also proposed curtailment of non-developmental expenditure by doing away with vacated posts, adoption of austerity measures and reduction of nonplan expenditure.

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

Table 2.24: Market Borrowings of the State Governments 2006-07

(Amount in Rupees crore) Items Date Cut-off Rate (%) 3 7.65 7.87 7.89 7.91 7.93 7.95 7.96 7.98 8.00 8.04 8.05 8.62 8.65 8.66 8.11 7.99 8.04 7.74 7.80 7.82 7.81 7.89 7.93 7.94 7.99 7.96 7.99 7.95 8.10 8.17 8.19 8.20 8.45 8.38 8.45 8.40 8.39 8.39 8.39 8.32 8.25 8.32 8.38 8.35 Tenor Amount (years) Raised 4 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 5
Per cent

Chart II.4: Weighted Average Interest Rate on State Governments' Market Borrowing

1 (A) Tap Issues (B) Auctions i. First ii. Second iii. Second iv. Second v. Second vi. Second vii. Second viii. Second ix. Second x. Second xi. Second xii. Third xiii. Third xiv. Third xv. Fourth xvi. Fifth xvii. Fifth xviii. Sixth xix. Sixth xx. Sixth xxi. Seventh xxii. Seventh xxiii. Seventh xxiv. Seventh xxv. Seventh xxvi. Eighth xxvii. Eighth xxviii. Ninth xxix. Tenth xxx. Tenth xxxi. Tenth xxxii. Tenth xxxiii. Tenth xxxiv. Eleventh xxxv. Eleventh xxxvi. Eleventh xxxvii. Eleventh xxxviii.Eleventh xxxix. Eleventh xxxx. Eleventh xxxxi. Eleventh xxxxii. Eleventh xxxxiii.Eleventh xxxxiv. Twelfth Total - B (i to xxxxiv) Grand Total (A+B)

2 April 27, 2006 May 11, 2006 May 11, 2006 May 11, 2006 May 11, 2006 May 11, 2006 May 11, 2006 May 11, 2006 May 11, 2006 May 11, 2006 May 11, 2006 July 13, 2006 July 13, 2006 July 13, 2006 August 25, 2006 October 17, 2006 October 17, 2006 November 16, 2006 November 16, 2006 November 16, 2006 December 14, 2006 December 14, 2006 December 14, 2006 December 14, 2006 December 14, 2006 January 18, 2007 January 18, 2007 February 2, 2007 February 22, 2007 February 22, 2007 February 22, 2007 February 22, 2007 February 22, 2007 March 13, 2007 March 13, 2007 March 13, 2007 March 13, 2007 March 13, 2007 March 13, 2007 March 13, 2007 March 13, 2007 March 13, 2007 March 13, 2007 March 23, 2007

300 400 500 500 1,307 881 130 57 1,646 150 15 225 933 300 1,050 153 48 2,184 91 156 340 166 809 455 193 500 715 200 47 375 800 563 1,615 212 250 470 67 70 90 300 200 414 211 738 20,825 20,825

a major responsibility with regard to provision of social and economic services such as education and health and economic infrastr ucture such as roads, waterworks and power. In order to make the process of fiscal consolidation durable and sustainable, adequate investment in economic infrastructure and spending on social services would be essential. Against this backdrop, a desirable path to fiscal correction lies through fiscal empowerment, i.e., by expanding the scope and size of revenue flows into budget, rather than fiscal enfeeblement. Augmenting
Chart II.5: Utilisation of WMA and Overdraft by States (Weekly Average)

2.57 Notwithstanding the progress in fiscal consolidation since 2004-05, structural rigidities persist as manifested in sluggish non-tax revenue, downwardly rigid non-development expenditure and low allocation in respect of social sectors such as health and education. The State Governments have 29

Rs. crore

September

November

December

February

April

June

July

January

October

August

May

March

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Chart II.6: Investment in 14-day Intermediate Treasury Bills by the State Governments (Weekly Average)

III. MONETARY AND CREDIT SITUATION Monetary Conditions 2.59 This section makes an assessment of the conduct of monetary policy during 2006-07 and outlines the developments relating to the monetary and credit situation, followed by a discussion on liquidity management operations of the Reserve Bank. In line with the Annual Policy Statement of the Reserve Bank announced in April 2006, the First Quarter Review (July 2006), the Mid-term Review (October 2006) and the Third Quar ter Review (January 2007) of the Annual Policy Statement indicated that it would continue to ensure that appropriate liquidity is maintained in the system so that all legitimate requirements of credit are met, particularly for productive purposes, consistent with the objective of price and financial stability. Towards this end, it was indicated that it would continue with its policy of active demand management of liquidity through open market operations (OMOs), including MSS, LAF and CRR, and use all the policy instruments at its disposal flexibly, as and when the situation warrants. 2.60 The Mid-ter m Review of Annual Policy Statement for 2006-07 (October 31, 2006) of the Reserve Bank noted that barring the emergence of any adverse and unexpected developments in various sectors of the economy and keeping in view the assessment of the economy including the outlook for inflation, the overall stance of monetary policy would be to ensure a monetary and interest rate environment that supports export and investment demand in the economy so as to enable continuation of the growth momentum while reinforcing price stability with a view

Rs.crore

June

September

October

December

April

August

February

May

July

resource mobilisation from non-tax revenue through appropriate user charges and restructuring of State public sector undertakings continue to be of critical importance. Public Debt 2.58 The combined outstanding liabilities of the Central and State Governments, as a proportion to GDP, is budgeted to decline to 75.7 per cent by endMarch 2007 from 78.5 per cent as at end-March 2006. The fiscal consolidation process underway at the Centre and States as well as the strong macroeconomic performance have led to the budgeted decline in combined Government liabilities (Table 2.25).

Table 2.25: Combined Liabilities and Debt-GDP Ratio

Year (end -March) Outstanding Liabilities (Rupees crore) Centre 1 1990-91 1995-96 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 RE 2006-07 BE 2 3,14,558 6,06,232 15,59,201 17,36,678 19,94,422 21,95,387 24,73,562 States 3 1,28,155 2,50,889 7,98,921 9,23,500 10,42,305 11,52,652 12,58,672 Combined 4 3,68,824 7,28,208 19,83,298 22,52,074 25,75,146 28,01,050 31,04,262 Centre 5 55.3 51.0 63.4 62.8 63.8 61.5 60.3 Debt-GDP Ratio (per cent) States 6 22.5 21.1 32.5 33.4 33.3 32.3 30.7 Combined 7 64.9 61.3 80.7 81.4 82.4 78.5 75.7

RE: Revised Estimates. BE: Budget Estimates. Note : Ratios to GDP for the years 2002-03 onwards are based on the new series of National Accounts Statistics with the base year 1999-2000. The debt-GDP ratio for 2006-07 BE is based on CSOs Advance Estimates of GDP. Source : Budget documents of the Central Government; and State Finances - A Study of Budgets of 2006-07, Reserve Bank of India, December 2006.

November

January

March

30

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

to anchor inflation expectations with an emphasis to maintain macroeconomic and, in particular, financial stability by promptly considering all possible measures as appropriate to the evolving global and domestic circumstances. 2.61 The Third Quar ter Review of the Annual Statement on Monetary Policy for the year 2006-07 also emphasised that the outlook for inflation assumes criticality in terms of policy monitoring and action and accordingly management of liquidity would receive priority in policy hierarchy over the remaining part of the year. Fur thermore, a judicious balancing of weights has been assigned to monetary policy objectives to accord priority to stability in order to suppor t growth on a sustainable basis and to demonstrate that inflation beyond the tolerance threshold of the Reserve Bank is unacceptable and that the resolve to ensure price stability is always backed by timely and appropriate policy responses. 2.62 In the Third Quar ter Review of Annual Statement on Monetary Policy for the Year 2006-07 in January 2007, the Reserve Bank indicated that barring the emergence of any adverse and unexpected developments in various sectors of the economy and keeping in view the then assessment of the economy including the outlook for inflation, the overall stance of monetary policy in the period ahead would be: To reinforce the emphasis on price stability and well-anchored inflation expectations, while ensur ing a monetar y and interest rate environment that supports export and investment demand in the economy so as to enable continuation of the growth momentum. To re-emphasise credit quality and orderly conditions in financial markets for securing macroeconomic and, in par ticular, financial stability while simultaneously pursuing greater credit penetration and financial inclusion. To respond swiftly with all possible measures as appropriate to the evolving global and domestic situation impinging on inflation expectations and the growth momentum.

have also been raised in the case of banks exposures to specific sectors. The stance of monetary policy has progressively shifted from an equal emphasis on price stability along with growth to one of reinforcing price stability with immediate monetary measures and to take recourse to all possible measures promptly in response to the evolving circumstances. 2.64 In pursuance of the stance of monetary policy, liquidity management was modified on March 2, 2007 to put in place an augmented programme of issuance under the MSS with a mix of Treasury Bills and dated securities in a more flexible manner. In view of the enhanced MSS programme and the need to conduct LAF as a facility for equilibrating very short-term mismatches, daily reverse repo absorptions were limited to a maximum of Rs.3,000 crore, effective March 5, 2007. In the light of the prevailing macroeconomic, monetary and anticipated liquidity conditions, and with a view to containing inflation expectations, the Reserve Bank increased the fixed repo rate under LAF by 25 basis points from March 30, 2007 and the CRR by 50 basis points in two stages from April 14, 2007 and April 28, 2007. Globally, the process of withdrawal of accommodation in monetary policy is being vigorously pursued. Since mid-February, 2007 among the leading central banks, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have raised the key policy rates by 25 basis points each, while the Peoples Bank of China has raised the one year benchmark lending rate by 45 basis points (27 basis points in March 2007 and 18 basis points in May 2007) and the reserve requirements by 150 basis points (including the hike of 50 basis points to be effective from June 5, 2007). There has been no change in the policy rates of the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, and the Reserve Bank of Australia, all of which had undertaken prior policy action. Reserve Money Survey 2.65 Growth in reserve money at 23.7 per cent, year-on-year (y-o-y), as on March 31, 2007 was higher than that of 17.2 per cent a year ago. Adjusted for the impact of the hike in the CRR, reser ve money expansion was 18.9 per cent as on March 31, 2007. Expansion in reserve money was mainly led by foreign currency assets of the Reserve Bank which increased (net of revaluation) by Rs.1,64,601 crore during 200607 as compared with an increase of Rs.68,834 crore in the previous year. On the other hand, the Reserve Banks net credit to the Centre declined by Rs.1,042 crore during 2006-07 as against an increase of Rs.28,417 crore during the previous year (Table 2.26). 31

2.63 In recognition of the cumulative and lagged effects of monetary policy, the Reserve Bank began a gradual withdrawal of accommodation in mid-2004 in spite of inflation being within tolerance limits at that time. Since September 2004, repo/reverse repo rates have been increased by 175/150 basis points and the CRR by 200 basis points. General provisioning requirements for standard advances and risk weights

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 2.26: Reserve Money

(Amount in Rupees crore) Outstanding as on March 31, 2007 2 7,08,950 Variation during 2005-06 2006-07 Q1 3 83,922 (17.2) 62,015 (16.8) 21,515 (18.9) 393 (6.1) 26,111 28,417 0 0 13,869 7 -14,541 535 60,193 (9.8) 68,834 1,306 4,222 4 1,35,892 (23.7) 73,491 (17.1) 61,784 (45.6) 617 (9.0) -3,775 -1,042 0 0 26,763 -143 27,662 1,990 1,93,170 (28.7) 1,64,601 -525 54,968 5 13,470 Q2 6 18,666 2006-07 Q3 7 14,210 Q4 8 89,546

Item

1 Reserve Money Components (1+2+3) 1. Currency in Circulation 2. Bankers Deposits with RBI 3. Other Deposits with the RBI Sources (1+2+3+4-5) 1. RBIs net credit to Government of which: to Centre (i+ii+iii+iv-v) i. Loans and Advances ii. Treasury Bills held by the RBI iii. RBIs Holdings of Dated Securities iv. RBIs Holdings of Rupee coins v. Central Government Deposits 2. RBIs credit to banks and commercial sector 3. NFEA of RBI of which: FCA, adjusted for revaluation 4. Governments Currency Liabilities to the Public 5. Net Non-Monetary liabilities of RBI Memo: Net Domestic Assets Reserve Banks Primary Subscription to Dated Securities LAF, Repos (+)/Reverse Repos (-) Net Open Market Sales # * Mobilisation under MSS * Net Purchases(+)/Sales(-) from Authorised Dealers NFEA/Reserve Money NFEA/Currency

5,04,167 1,97,295 7,487

22,283 -7,204 -1,610

-2,011 20,224 453

26,871 -12,165 -495

26,348 60,929 2,269

4,362 4,118 0 0 97,172 12 93,066 9,173 8,66,153 8,229 1,78,967

53 3,071 0 0 -27,610 9 -30,672 -3,135 71,845 28,107 -920 54,373

2,826 2,584 0 0 24,944 -107 22,253 3,107 11,392 10,948 155 -1,186

-12,754 -12,568 0 0 22,733 97 35,398 2,065 27,250 31,634 166 2,517

6,100 5,871 0 0 6,696 -142 683 -47 82,682 93,913 75 -736

-1,57,203 0 29,185 62,974 122.2 171.8

23,729 10,000 12,080 3,913 -35,149 32,884 117.4 156.3

-57,277 0 36,435 5,125 33912 1,18,994 122.2 171.8

-58,376 0 -23,060 1,536 4,062 21,545 127.0 164.4

7,274 0 28,395 1,176 8,940 0 125.0 167.7

-13,040 0 22,195 389 -3,315 19,776 126.5 164.0

6,864 0 8,905 2,024 24,225 77,673 122.2 171.8

NFEA : Net Foreign Exchange Assets. FCA : Foreign Currency Assets. LAF : Liquidity Adjustment Facility. * : At face value. # : Excludes Treasury Bills. : Per cent, end of period. Note : 1. Data are based on March 31 for Q4 and last reporting Friday for all other quarters. 2. Figures in parentheses are percentage variations during the fiscal year. 3. Government balances as on March 31, 2007 are before closure of accounts.

The decline in net RBI credit to the Centre during 2006-07 could be attributed to higher deposits of the Centre, which, in turn, reflected fresh issuance of securities under the MSS. Bankers deposits with the Reserve Bank expanded partly on account of the hike in the CRR. 2.66 The year-on-year (y-o-y) reser ve money expansion was 23.6 per cent (16.3 per cent adjusted 32

for increase in the CRR) as on May 18, 2007 as compared with 17.1 per cent a year ago. The Reserve Bank's foreign currency assets (adjusted for revaluation), on a y-o-y basis, increased by Rs.1,55,105 crore as on May 18, 2007 as compared with an increase of Rs. 90,841 crore a year ago. The Reserve Bank's net credit to the Centre increased by Rs. 4,414 crore as compared with an increase of Rs. 8,458 crore a year ago.

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

Table 2.27: Monetary Indicators

(Amount in Rupees crore) Item Outstanding as on March 31, 2007 Variation 2005-06 Amount 1 I. Reserve Money II. Narrow Money (M1) III. Broad Money (M3) a) Currency with the Public b) Aggregate Deposits i) Demand Deposits ii) Time Deposits of which: Non-Resident Foreign Currency Deposits IV. NM3 of which: Call Term Funding from Financial Institutions V. a) L1 of which: Postal Deposits b) L2 c) L3 VI. Major Sources of Broad Money a) Net Bank Credit to the Government (i+ii) i) Net Reserve Bank Credit to Government ii) Other Banks Credit to Government b) Bank Credit to Commercial Sector c) Net Foreign Exchange Assets of Banking Sector Memo: SCBs Aggregate Deposits SCBs Non-food Credit 2 7,08,950 9,59,875 32,96,919 4,84,171 28,05,261 4,68,216 23,37,045 66,242 33,06,958 86,151 34,21,762 1,14,804 34,24,694 34,50,758 8,32,867 4,362 8,28,505 21,23,290 9,30,319 25,94,259 18,76,672 3 83,922 1,43,825 3,96,881 58,248 3,38,081 85,025 2,53,056 -16,876 4,21,126 11,224 4,36,397 15,271 4,37,206 4,41,207 17,888 35,799 -17,910 3,61,746 78,291 3,23,913 3,54,193 Per cent 4 17.2 21.1 17.0 16.4 17.1 26.5 15.3 -22.2 18.1 15.6 18.1 17.2 18.1 18.1 2.4 -2.3 27.2 12.1 18.1 31.8 2006-07 Amount 5 1,35,892 1,33,497 5,67,372 71,052 4,95,704 61,829 4,33,875 6,967 5,59,370 3,007 5,70,256 10,886 5,70,256 5,72,479 66,272 -3,775 70,046 4,30,287 2,04,125 4,85,210 4,10,285 Per cent 6 23.7 16.2 20.8 17.2 21.5 15.2 22.8 11.8 20.4 3.6 20.0 10.5 20.0 19.9 8.6 9.2 25.4 28.1 23.0 28.0

SCBs : Scheduled Commercial Banks. NM3 is the residency-based broad money aggregate and L1, L2 and L3 are liquidity aggregates compiled on the recommendations of the Working Group on Money Supply (Chairman: Dr. Y.V. Reddy, 1998). Liquidity aggregates are defined as follows: L1 = NM3 + Select deposits with the post office saving banks. L2 = L1 +Term deposits with term lending institutions and refinancing institutions (FIs) + Term borrowing by FIs + Certificates of deposits issued by FIs. L3 = L2 + Public deposits of non-banking financial companies. Note : 1. Data are provisional. 2. Data reflect redemption of India Millennium Deposits (IMDs) on December 29, 2005. 3. Government balances as on March 31, 2007 are before closure of accounts. 4. Variation during 2006-07 is worked out from March 31, 2006, whereas variation during 2005-06 is worked out from April 1, 2005. 5. Postal deposits data pertain to February 2007.

Monetary Survey 2.67 Broad money (M3) growth was 20.8 per cent, y-o-y, as on March 31, 2007 as compared with 17.0 per cent in the previous year (Table 2.27 and Chart II.7). Growth in M3, thus, remained above the projection of 15.0 per cent as set out in the Annual Policy Statement in April 2006. 2.68 Aggregate deposits of banks accelerated on the back of higher time deposits. Demand deposits recorded a growth of 15.2 per cent (y-o-y) as on March 31, 2007 on top of the growth of 26.5 per cent a year ago. Time deposits increased by 22.8 per cent as compared with 15.3 per cent a year ago, benefiting, inter alia, from higher interest rates and tax benefits for deposits of 5 year and above matur ity. Concomitantly, growth in postal deposits decelerated to 10.5 per cent, year-on-year, as at end-February 2007 from 17.2 per cent a year ago. 33
Per cent

Chart II.7: Broad Money Growth (y-o-y)

Fortnight

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

2.69 Growth in broad money (M3) was 20.2 per cent (y-o-y) as on May 11, 2007 as compared with 18.2 per cent a year ago. Of the major components, growth in aggregate deposits accelerated to 21.1 per cent from 18.6 per cent a year ago.
Growth rate (per cent)

Chart II.8: Non-food Credit

Bank Credit 2.70 Demand for bank credit continued to remain strong in 2006-07, albeit with some moderation. As on March 30, 2007, non-food credit extended by scheduled commercial banks grew by 28.0 per cent (y-o-y) on top of the growth of 31.8 per cent as on March 31, 2006. During 2006-07 banks investments in government securities increased by 10.0 per cent (Table 2.28 and Chart II.8). Growth in banks SLR investments was, however, lower than that of their net demand and time liabilities. As a result, commercial banks holdings of government securities declined to 28.0 per cent of their net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) at end-March 2007 from 31.3 per cent at endMarch 2006. 2.71 Provisional infor mation on sectoral deployment of bank credit indicates that growth in credit was largely broad-based. The y-o-y growth in credit to industry and agriculture was 28.8 per cent and 30.4 per cent, respectively, at end-January 2007.

Fortnight

The increase in industrial credit in consonance with the buoyancy in industrial activity was mainly on account of infrastructure (power, roads, por ts, telecommunication, etc.), metals, textiles, petroleum, chemicals, food processing and engineering. Credit to the housing sector and commercial real estate continued to remain strong (Table 2.29).

Table 2.28: Scheduled Commercial Banks Survey

(Amount in Rupees crore) Item Outstanding as on March 30, 2007 Variation (year-on-year) As on March 31, 2006 Absolute 1 Sources of Funds 1. Aggregate Deposits 2. Call/Term Funding from Financial Institutions 3. Overseas Foreign Currency Borrowings 4. Capital 5. Reserves Uses of Funds 1. Bank Credit of which: Non-food Credit 2. Investments in Government Papers 3. Investments in Other Approved Securities 4. Investments in Non-SLR Securities 5. Foreign Currency Assets 6. Balances with the RBI Note : Data are provisional. 19,23,192 18,76,672 7,71,060 21,100 1,43,750 39,287 1,80,222 3,54,868 3,54,193 -19,514 -3,295 -11,838 14,059 34,077 30.8 31.8 -2.7 -16.5 -8.0 47.8 36.6 4,16,115 4,10,285 70,318 4,388 8,410 -4,207 53,161 27.6 28.0 10.0 26.3 6.2 -9.7 41.8 25,94,259 86,151 32,377 33,868 1,66,290 3,23,913 11,224 1,295 5,705 34,616 18.1 15.6 4.5 21.2 31.3 4,85,210 3,007 2,543 1,254 21,177 23.0 3.6 8.5 3.8 14.6 2 3 Per cent 4 As on March 30, 2007 Absolute 5 Per cent 6

34

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

Table 2.29: Deployment of Non-food Bank Credit

(Amount in Rupees crore)

Sector/Industry

Outstanding as on January 19, 2007

Year-on-Year Variations 2005-06 * Absolute 3 2,56,580 28,089 66,480 7,453 68,386 37,431 2,378 3,072 3884 -220 12,049 1,990 1,513 13,975 11,225 6,023 Per cent 4 25.7 22.4 15.6 10.0 27.9 29.1 8.0 53.3 75.9 -2.4 39.4 20.7 11.4 24.1 84.4 26.8 2006-07** Absolute 5 3,84,187 47,044 1,41,774 20,179 1,03,587 46,501 3,517 3,749 4,742 1,690 91,782 10,045 5,252 24,135 17,899 10,653 Per cent 6 30.4 30.4 28.8 24.3 31.3 26.6 11.0 43.8 51.7 24.0 32.3 76.5 37.2 32.0 78.2 35.0

1 Non-food Gross Bank Credit (1 to 4) 1. Agriculture and Allied Activities 2. Industry (Small, Medium and Large) Small Scale Industries 3. Personal Loans Housing Advances against Fixed Deposits Credit Cards Education Consumer Durables 4. Other Services Transport Operators Professional & Others Trade Real Estate Loans Non-Banking Financial Companies Memo: Priority Sector Industry (Small, Medium and Large) Food Processing Textiles Paper & Paper Products Petroleum, Coal Products & Nuclear Fuels Chemical and Chemical Products Rubber, Plastic & their Products Iron and Steel Other Metal & Metal Products Engineering Vehicles, Vehicle Parts and Transport Equipments Gems & Jewellery Construction Infrastructure * : ** : January 20, 2006 over January 28, 2005. January 19, 2007 over January 20, 2006.

2 16,47,521 2,01,927 6,34,804 1,03,089 4,34,860 2,21,072 35,627 12,307 13,910 8,731 3,75,930 23,179 19,377 99,460 40,790 41,093

5,75,282 6,34,804 35,619 71,274 10,416 33,991 51,073 8,318 59,356 20,261 39,741 19,311 22,249 17,131 1,28,405

78,172 66,480 3,878 8,989 1,650 2,203 5,265 2,403 7,841 2,046 2,913 4,964 4,276 3,696 22,717

20.5 15.6 15.9 20.4 24.0 14.1 13.3 65.5 21.8 17.6 9.9 41.8 29.9 45.5 28.8

1,11,551 1,41,774 7,675 17,849 1,882 15,399 6,880 2,141 15,096 6,460 7,212 2,483 3,053 5,550 27,162

24.1 28.8 27.5 33.4 22.1 82.8 15.6 34.7 34.1 46.8 22.2 14.8 15.9 47.9 26.8

Note : 1. Data are provisional and relate to select scheduled commercial banks. 2. Owing to change in classification of sectors/industries and coverage of banks, data for 2006 are not comparable with earlier data.

2.72 In addition to bank credit, the corporate sector continued to rely on non-bank sources of funds for their financing requirements during 2006-07. Mobilisation of resources through equity issuances abroad (ADRs/GDRs) during 2006-07 more than doubled from the level a year ago. Recourse to debt flows in the form of external commercial borrowings (ECBs) dur ing April-December 2006 was also higher than that a year ago. Internal sources of funds 35

continued to provide a strong suppor t to the cor porate sector dur ing Apr il-December 2006 (Table 2.30). 2.73 Scheduled commercial banks' non-food credit registered a growth of 27.2 per cent (y-o-y) as on May 11, 2007 on top of 32.3 per cent a year ago, while their investments in Government securities expanded by 9.5 per cent (2.0 per cent a year ago).

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 2.30: Select Sources of Funds to Industry

(Rupees crore) Item 1 A. Bank Credit to Industry # B. Flow from Non-banks to Corporates 1. Capital Issues (i+ii) i) Non-Government Public Ltd. Companies (a+b) a) Bonds/Debentures b) Shares ii) PSUs and Government Companies 2. ADR/GDR Issues 3. External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) 4. Issue of CPs C. Depreciation Provision + D. Profit after Tax + 2005-06 2 1,27,192 (66,244) * 13,781 13,408 245 13,163 373 7,263 45,078 (27,228) * -1,517 28,883 (22,044) * 67,506 (52,891) * 2006-07 3 74,981 *

29,180 29,180 585 28,595 0 16,184 48,328 * 4,970 24,557 * 75,460 *

# : Data pertain to select scheduled commercial banks. Figures for 2005-06 are not comparable with those of 2006-07 due to increase in number of banks selected in the sample. + : Data are based on audited/ unaudited abridged results of select sample of non-financial non-Government companies. * : Data pertain to April-December. Note : 1. Data are provisional. 2. Data on capital issues pertain to gross issuances excluding issues by banks and financial institutions. Figures are not adjusted for banks investments in capital issues, which are not expected to be significant. 3. Data on ADR/GDR issues exclude issuances by banks and financial institutions. 4. Data on external commercial borrowings include short-term credit. Data for 2005-06 are exclusive of the IMD redemption.

Price Situation 2.74 Headline inflation in major advanced economies broadly mirrored movements in international crude oil prices during 2006-07. Headline inflation, which remained firm up to August 2006 in line with the hardening of international crude oil prices, eased during September-October 2006 on

account of base effects and the sharp decline in international crude oil prices (Table 2.31 and Chart II.9). However, it rose again during December 2006 - March 2007. Core inflation continues to remain firm in major economies. CPI inflation (excluding food and energy) was 2.5 per cent in the US in March 2007 (2.1 per cent a year ago) and 2.1 per cent in the OECD countries in March 2007 (1.6 per cent a year ago).
(Per cent)

Table 2.31: Annual Consumer Price Inflation

Country/Area 1 Advanced Economies US Japan Euro Area Other Emerging Market and Developing Countries Developing Asia China India P: IMF Projections. Source: World Economic Outlook, April 2007, IMF. 2001 2 2.1 2.8 -0.8 2.4 6.7 2.7 0.7 3.8 2002 3 1.5 1.6 -0.9 2.3 5.8 2.0 -0.8 4.3 2003 4 1.8 2.3 -0.2 2.1 5.8 2.5 1.2 3.8 2004 5 2.0 2.7 2.1 5.6 4.1 3.9 3.8 2005 6 2.3 3.4 -0.6 2.2 5.4 3.6 1.8 4.2 2006 7 2.3 3.2 0.2 2.2 5.3 4.0 1.5 6.1 2007 P 8 1.8 1.9 0.3 2.0 5.4 3.9 2.2 6.2

36

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

Chart II.9: Consumer Price Inflation

Advanced Economies

Select Asian Economies

Per cent

Per cent

Dec-04

Dec-05

Sep-04

Sep-05

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Sep-06

Mar-07

Sep-04

Sep-05

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Sep-06

Dec-06

US

UK

Euro Area

Japan

China

Korea

Thailand

Malaysia

2.75 Reflecting strong demand, non-oil international commodity prices remained at elevated levels. Metals prices firmed up further during 2006-07, largely reflecting robust demand and supply constraints amidst speculative interest (Chart II.10). Amongst food items, prices of wheat edged higher by 14 per cent in March 2007 (y-o-y), largely reflecting shortfall in global production and steady increase in utilisation. Prices of edible oils also increased; in March 2007 (y-o-y), palm oil increased by 41.4 per cent and soyabean oil by 33.2 per cent. On the other hand, crude oil prices eased from the historical peak of US $ 78.4 a barrel on July 14, 2006 to around US $ 51 a barrel in January 2007 on the back of slowdown in global demand, build up of US inventories, and mild winter in the US. Crude oil prices, however, rose again from the last week of January 2007 to about US $ 67
Chart II.10: International Commodity Prices

a barrel in late March 2007. Sugar prices have eased in recent months, reflecting improved production prospects. 2.76 A number of central banks tightened monetary policies during 2006-07 and 2007-08 (AprilMay) in order to contain inflation expectations. In the euro area, notwithstanding some easing in inflation, risks to the price outlook are seen on the upside due to the possibility of further oil price rises, additional increases in administered prices and indirect taxes and stronger than currently expected wage developments. The European Central Bank (ECB), therefore, raised the key policy rate by 25 basis points each in June, August, October and December 2006, and March 2007 a total increase of 175 basis points since December 2005 to keep medium to long-term inflation expectations in the euro area anchored to levels consistent with price stability. In the UK, in view of strong economic activity, limited spare capacity, rapid growth of broad money and credit, rise in asset prices and expectations about inflation remaining above the target in the near term, the Bank of England raised its policy rate by 25 basis points each in August and November 2006, and January and May 2007 to 5.50 per cent (Table 2.32). The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its policy rate by 25 basis points in November 2006 to 6.25 per cent a total increase of 75 basis points since May 2006 in response to strong economic activity and underlying inflation pressures. After maintaining zero interest rates for an extended period, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) increased the uncollateralised overnight call rate (adopted as the operating target of monetary policy since March 2006) by 25 basis points each in July 2006 and February 2007 to 0.50 per cent. On the other hand, the US Fed, after having raised its target federal funds rate by 25 basis points each on 17 successive occasions between June 2004 and June 2006, has 37

March 2004 =100

Jul-04

Jul-05

Jul-06

Nov-05

May-04

May-05

May-06

Nov-04

Nov-06

Jan-06

Sep-04

Sep-05

Sep-06

Jan-05

Jan-07

Non-Fuel Commodities

Mar-04

Mar-05

Food

Mar-06

Metals

Crude Oil Agricultural Raw Materials Source: International Monetary Fund.

Mar-07

Mar-07

Dec-04

Dec-05

Jun-04

Jun-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-04

Jun-05

Jun-06

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 2.32: Global Inflation Indicators

(Per cent) Country/Region Key Policy Rate Policy Rates (As on May 19, 2007) Changes in Policy Rates (basis points) Since endMarch 2005 1 Developed Economies Australia Canada Euro area Japan UK US Developing Economies Brazil India 2 Cash Rate Overnight Rate Interest Rate on Main Refinancing Operations Uncollateralised Overnight Call Rate Official Bank Rate Federal Funds Rate 3 6.25 (Nov. 8, 2006) 4.25 (May 24, 2006) 3.75 (Mar. 8, 2007) 0.50 (Feb. 21, 2007) 5.50 (May. 10, 2007) 5.25 (June 29, 2006) 12.50 (Apr. 18, 2007) 6.00 (July 25, 2006) 7.75 (Mar. 30, 2007) 6.57 (May 19, 2007) 8.75 (May 8, 2007) 3.75 (Apr. 22, 2007) 4.50 (Aug. 10, 2006) 7.50 (Oct. 20, 2005) 9.00 (Dec. 8, 2006) 5.00 (June 7, 2006) 4.00 (Apr. 11, 2007) 4 75 175 175 ** 75 250 Since endMarch 2006 5 75 50 125 50 100 50 CPI Inflation (y-o-y) 2006 (Mar.) 2007 (Mar.) Growth (y-o-y) 2005 (Q4) 2006 (Q4)

6 3.0 2.2 2.2 -0.2 1.8 3.4

7 2.4 2.3 1.9 -0.1 3.1 2.8

8 2.7 2.9 1.7 4.0 1.8 3.2 2.8 2.3 3.3 2.3 3.0 3.1

Selic Rate Reverse Repo Rate Repo Rate

(-)675 125

(-)400 50

5.3 4.9

3.0 6.7

1.4 9.3

3.8 8.6

China Indonesia Israel Korea Philippines South Africa Thailand

Benchmark 1-year Lending Rate BI Rate Key Rate Overnight Call Rate Reverse Repo Rate Repo Rate 14-day Repurchase Rate 1-day Repurchase Rate

175 99 25@ 25 125 75 150 275

125 99 (-)400 (-)100 50 0 200 50 (-)94 ^

0.8 15.8 3.6 2.0 7.6 3.4 5.7

3.3 6.5 -0.9 2.2 2.2 6.1 2.0

9.9 4.9 4.8 5.3 6.1 4.5 4.7

10.7 6.1 3.7 4.0 6.5 6.1 4.2

** : The Bank of Japan decided on March 9, 2006 to change the operating target of money market operations from the outstanding balance of current accounts at the Bank to the uncollateralised overnight call rate. @ : Change since July 2005 when Bank Indonesia adopted BI rate as the reference rate with the formal adoption of inflation targeting. ^ : Change over January 16, 2007. Effective January 17, 2007, the 1-day repurchase rate replaced the 14-day repurchase rate as the policy rate. Note : 1. For India, data on inflation pertain to CPI for Industrial Workers. 2. Figures in parentheses in column (3) give the date when the policy rates were last revised. Source : International Monetary Fund, websites of respective central banks and the Economist.

paused since then as economic growth has moderated from its quite strong pace, partly reflecting a cooling of the housing market. The US Fed has 38

indicated that future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

2.77 In emerging Asia, inflation remains relatively modest in a number of economies, reflecting both pre-emptive monetary tightening as well as appreciation of the exchange rates. However, there is an emerging concern regarding excess liquidity arising particularly from large external capital flows. Consumer price inflation in China increased to 3.3 per cent in March 2007 from 0.8 per cent a year ago. In view of stronger growth in money supply and credit, the Peoples Bank of China has increased the benchmark 1-year lending rate by 27 basis points each in April 2006, August 2006, March 2007 and by 18 basis points in May 2007 accompanied by a series of administrative curbs on new project approvals. It has also raised the cash reserve ratio by 400 basis points since July 2006 in eight steps to 11.50 per cent (including the hike of 50 basis points to be effective from June 5, 2007). Amongst other emerging Asian economies, Korea has kept its rates unchanged since August 2006. On the other hand, in Thailand and Indonesia, the policy rates have been cut by 94 basis points (since January 2007) and 400 basis points (since May 2006), respectively, to support growth. 2.78 In India, headline inflation, measured by y-o-y changes in the wholesale price index (WPI), was at 5.7 per cent during the week ended March 31, 2007 as compared with 4.0 per cent a year ago. The average WPI inflation rate (average of the 52 weeks) was 5.4 per cent in 2006-07 as compared with 4.4 per cent a year ago (Chart II.11). Inflation movements in 2006-07 were driven by primary food articles and manufactured products prices, reflecting the impact of both supplyside and demand-side pressures.
Chart II.11: Wholesale Price Inflation

2.79 Prices of primary articles led by wheat, pulses, milk, oilseeds and raw cotton exerted upward pressures on headline inflation during 2006-07 (Table 2.33). Wheat prices rose by 7.6 per cent, year-on-year, on the back of low domestic stocks and high international prices. Prices of pulses increased by 12.0 per cent from last years level, reflecting stagnant domestic production. Milk prices increased by 8.4 per cent. Prices of oilseeds increased by 30.6 per cent in contrast to a decline of 9.2 per cent a year ago in tandem with international trends. Overall, prices of primary articles increased by 10.7 per cent on a y-o-y basis as on March 31, 2007 (4.8 per cent a year ago). 2.80 Fuel group inflation eased to 1.0 per cent, y-o-y, as on March 31, 2007 from 8.3 per cent a year ago. Fuel group inflation initially rose to a peak of 9.9 per cent, y-o-y, on June 17, 2006 under the impact of the rise in domestic petrol and diesel prices on June 6, 2006. Subsequently, the fuel groups inflation moderated due to the base effect and the decline in domestic prices of petrol and diesel in November 2006 and February 2007. It may be noted that the passthrough of higher international oil prices has been restricted to petrol and diesel. Domestic prices of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and kerosene have remained unchanged since November 2004 and April 2002, respectively, on grounds of societal concerns. 2.81 Manufactured products inflation increased to 5.8 per cent, y-o-y, as on March 31, 2007 from 1.9 per cent a year ago, led by edible oils/oil cakes, cement, metals and electrical machinery. Metal prices have generally moved in line with international trends. Basic metals, alloys and products group inflation was 11.0 per cent, y-o-y, as on March 31 2007 as against a decline of 0.6 per cent a year ago. Domestic prices of cement increased by 11.6 per cent, y-o-y, over and above the increase of 14.9 per cent a year ago, partly reflecting strong domestic demand. Electr ical machinery prices rose by 12.8 per cent as compared with 4.1 per cent a year ago. While grain mill product prices increased by 21.4 per cent in tandem with domestic wheat prices, domestic sugar prices have eased in recent months in line with global trends. Edible oil prices increased by 14.7 per cent as against a decline of 3.3 per cent a year ago. 2.82 Apar t from monetar y measures by the Reserve Bank to contain inflationary expectations, the Government also undertook a number of fiscal and supply side measures during the year to contain the price rise in primary commodities as well as some manufactured items. 39

Per cent

08-Jan-05

03-Apr-04

22-Jul-06

24-Dec-05

28-May-05

13-May-06

30-Sep-06

09-Dec-06

21-Aug-04

06-Aug-05

19-Mar-05

Year-on-year

12-Jun-04

Average

Year-on-year excluding fuel

04-Mar-06

28-Apr-07

30-Oct-04

15-Oct-05

17-Feb-07

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 2.33: Wholesale Price Inflation in India (year-on-year)

(Per cent) Commodity Weight 1 All Commodities 1. Primary Articles Food Articles i. Rice ii. Wheat iii. Pulses iv. Vegetables v. Fruits vi. Milk vii. Eggs, Meat and Fish Non-Food Articles i. Raw Cotton ii. Oilseeds iii. Sugarcane Minerals 2. Fuel, Power, Light and Lubricants i. Mineral Oils ii. Electricity iii. Coal Mining 3. Manufactured Products i. Food Products of which: Sugar ii. iii. iv. v. vi. vii. viii. Edible Oils Cotton Textiles Man Made Fibres Chemicals and Chemical Products of which: Fertilisers Basic Metals, Alloys and Metal Products of which: Iron and Steel Non-Metallic Mineral Products of which: Cement Machinery and Machine Tools of which: Electrical Machinery Transport Equipment and Parts Memo: Food Items (Composite) WPI Excluding Food WPI Excluding Fuel P : Provisional. WC : Weighted Contribution. 26.9 73.1 85.8 3.9 4.0 2.8 25.1 74.9 54.5 7.5 5.1 7.1 33.6 66.4 95.9 2 100.0 22.0 15.4 2.4 1.4 0.6 1.5 1.5 4.4 2.2 6.1 1.4 2.7 1.3 0.5 14.2 7.0 5.5 1.8 63.8 11.5 3.6 2.8 4.2 4.4 11.9 3.7 8.3 3.6 2.5 1.7 8.4 5.0 4.3 April 1, 2006 Inflation 3 4.0 4.8 5.9 2.1 12.7 33.3 7.6 -3.9 1.9 13.2 -2.4 -1.7 -9.2 0.7 43.6 8.3 12.0 4.5 0.0 1.9 1.0 6.2 -3.3 2.3 -3.9 3.3 0.2 -0.6 -4.2 9.6 14.9 3.2 4.1 0.9 WC 4 100.0 25.8 22.5 1.1 4.3 4.5 2.4 -1.9 2.0 7.3 -3.5 -0.4 -5.5 0.3 6.9 45.5 37.2 8.3 0.0 27.7 2.6 4.7 -1.8 2.1 -2.1 9.7 0.1 -1.5 -5.1 5.4 5.6 5.2 3.1 0.8 March 31, 2007 P Inflation 5 5.7 10.7 8.3 5.7 7.6 12.0 1.4 5.5 8.4 11.1 16.6 21.4 30.6 1.1 17.0 1.0 0.5 2.3 0.0 5.8 6.4 -12.7 14.7 -1.0 3.7 2.9 1.8 11.0 7.5 9.0 11.6 8.0 12.8 2.1 WC 6 100.0 40.4 22.3 2.1 1.9 1.4 0.3 1.7 6.0 4.6 15.5 3.6 11.0 0.3 2.6 4.1 1.2 2.9 0.0 55.9 11.3 -6.9 5.1 -0.6 1.3 5.8 1.0 17.6 5.8 3.7 3.3 8.8 6.9 1.2

2.83 Headline WPI inflation was 5.4 per cent, y-o-y, as on May 5, 2007 as compared with 5.7 per cent at end-March 2007 and 4.4 per cent a year ago. Primary articles and manufactured group inflation hardened to 11.1 per cent (5.1 per cent a year ago) 40

and 5.1 per cent (2.3 per cent), respectively, while fuel group inflation softened to 0.7 per cent (9.0 per cent). The average WPI inflation rate increased to 5.6 per cent as on May 5, 2007 from 4.2 per cent a year ago.

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

Table 2.34: Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) in India (year-on-year)

(Per cent) Inflation Measure 1 CPI-IW CPI-UNME CPI-AL CPI-RL Memo: WPI Inflation IW : Industrial Workers. 6.5 4.6 5.1 4.1 4.8 5.4 5.9 5.7 Mar. 2003 2 4.1 3.8 4.9 4.8 Mar. 2004 3 3.5 3.4 2.5 2.5 Mar. 2005 4 4.2 4.0 2.4 2.4 Mar. 2006 5 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.3 Jun. 2006 6 7.7 6.5 7.2 7.2 Sep. 2006 7 6.8 6.6 7.3 7.0 Dec.2006 8 6.9 6.9 8.9 8.3 Mar. 2007 9 6.7 7.6 9.5 9.2

UNME : Urban Non-Manual Employees.

AL : Agricultural Labourers.

RL : Rural Labourers.

2.84 Consumer price inflation also edged higher and remained higher than the WPI inflation during 2006-07. This could be attributed to the higher order of increase in food prices as well as the higher weight of food items in the CPI (Table 2.34). 2.85 To sum up, demand for bank credit remained buoyant dur ing 2006-07. This could be accommodated by the acceleration in bank deposits. Concomitantly, growth in money supply also remained higher than a year ago; it exceeded the indicative projections set out in the Annual Policy Statement. Inflation firmed up during 2006-07 driven by primary food ar ticles and manufactured product prices, reflecting the inter-play between supply and demand pressures. The domestic oil price pass-through remains incomplete in respect of LPG and kerosene oil. Reflecting the sharp rise in primary food prices, var ious measures of consumer pr ice inflation remained above the WPI inflation during 2006-07. IV. FINANCIAL MARKETS 2.86 Financial markets in India remained orderly during 2006-07, barring some episodes of volatility. Short-term money rates remained generally within the reverse repo rate and repo rate corridor till midDecember 2006. However, beginning the second for tnight of December 2006, call rates shot up occasionally as a result of swings in liquidity conditions arising from large changes in government cash balances and volatile forex flows, as also shortage of collateral faced by some participants, at a time when monetary policy was in tightening mode. In the foreign exchange market, the Indian rupee had recorded both way movements vis--vis the US dollar dur ing the financial year along with mar ked appreciation against the US dollar since March 2007. Yi e l d s i n t h e g ove r n m e n t s e c u r i t i e s m a r ke t hardened dur ing 2006-07. The equity mar ket 41

remained orderly during the financial year, barring periods of volatility during May-June 2006 and February-March 2007. This section takes a review and assessment of var ious segments of the financial market during the fiscal year 2006-07 and 2007-08 (wherever data are available). Money Market Call Money Market 2.87 Money market conditions remained largely comfortable during 2006-07, barring a few spells of volatility. Call money rates, which had edged up during the second half of 2005-06, eased during April-May 2006 and remained close to the reverse repo rate [the lower band of the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) corridor], reflecting easing of liquidity conditions. With the increase in the fixed reverse repo/repo rate by 25 basis points effective June 9, 2006, call rates also edged up by a similar magnitude. In July 2006, call rates again edged up with the increase in fixed reverse repo/repo rate by 25 basis points (effective July 25, 2006). Liquidity conditions became relatively tight in September 2006 when the average call money rate increased to 6.33 per cent, inter alia, on account of liquidity pressures emanating from advance tax outflows and festival season currency demand amidst high credit demand. In October 2006, the average monthly call money rate increased further to 6.75 per cent. With the increase in fixed repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.25 per cent (the reverse repo rate was left unchanged) effective October 31, 2006, call rates edged up somewhat, averaging 6.90 per cent during the first three weeks of November 2006. However, as a result of decline in call rates towards the end of November, monthly average call rates declined to 6.69 per cent. From the second week of December, call rates started firming up reaching a high of 16.9 per cent on December 29, 2006 and averaged 8.63 per cent during

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 2.35: Domestic Financial Markets Select Indicators

Call Money Average Daily Turn-over (Rs crore) Average Call Rates* (Per cent) Govt. Securities Average Average 10-year Daily Yield @ Turn-over (Per in Govt. cent) Securities (Rs. crore)+ 4 7.02 7.11 6.88 7.13 7.04 7.04 7.14 7.10 7.13 7.15 7.32 7.40 7.45 7.58 7.86 8.26 8.09 7.76 7.65 7.52 7.55 7.71 7.90 8.00 5 3,001 3,805 6,807 3,698 4,239 5,207 2,815 3,314 2,948 3,094 2,584 2,203 3,685 3,550 2,258 2,243 5,786 8,306 4,313 10,654 5,362 4,822 4,386 2,991 Average Daily Interbank Turnover (US $ million) 6 9,880 10,083 10,871 11,003 11,749 11,040 13,087 11,228 13,808 16,713 15,798 17,600 17,712 18,420 15,310 14,325 15,934 18,107 16,924 20,475 19,932 21,065 P 20,050 P 24,231 P Foreign Exchange Average RBI's net Foreign Exchange Currency Rate Sales (-) / (Rs. per Purchases US $) (+) (US $ million 7 43.74 43.49 43.58 43.54 43.62 43.92 44.82 45.73 45.64 44.40 44.33 44.48 44.95 45.41 46.06 46.46 46.54 46.12 45.47 44.85 44.64 44.33 44.16 44.03 8 -104 2,473 1,552 -6,541 2,614 8,149 4,305 504 3,198 1,818 2,830 11,862 Average Forward Premia 3 month (Per cent) Liquidity Management Average MSS Outstanding # ( Rs. crore) Average Daily Reverse Repo (LAF) Outstanding (Rs. crore) 11 30,675 22,754 13,916 10,754 34,832 30,815 18,608 3,268 1,452 -15,386 -13,532 -6,319 46,088 59,505 48,610 48,027 36,326 25,862 12,983 9,937 -1,713 -10,738 648 -11,858 Average Daily BSE Turnover (Rs. crore) Equity Average Average Daily BSE NSE Sensex** Turnover (Rs. crore) Average S&P CNX Nifty**

Year/ Month

1 2005-06 April May June July August September October November December January February March 2006-07 April May June July August September October November December January February March

2 17,213 15,269 20,134 20,046 16,158 16,292 17,164 22,620 21,149 17,911 13,497 18,290 16,909 18,074 17,425 18,254 21,294 23,665 26,429 25,649 24,168 22,360 23,254 23,217

3 4.77 4.99 5.10 5.02 5.02 5.05 5.12 5.79 6.00 6.83 6.95 6.58 5.62 5.54 5.73 5.86 6.06 6.33 6.75 6.69 8.63 8.18 7.16 14.07

9 1.96 1.57 1.40 1.56 0.69 0.62 0.69 0.67 1.51 2.60 2.85 3.11 1.31 0.87 0.73 0.83 1.22 1.31 1.67 2.07 3.20 4.22 3.71 4.51

10 65,638 68,539 70,651 70,758 71,346 67,617 68,602 67,041 52,040 40,219 33,405 29,652 25,709 26,457 31,845 36,936 40,305 40,018 41,537 38,099 38,148 39,553 40,827 52,944

12 1,890 1,971 2,543 3,095 3,451 3,871 2,955 2,635 3,516 3,966 3,688 5,398 4,860 4,355 3,261 2,605 2,869 3,411 3,481 4,629 4,276 4,380 4,680 3,716

13 4,136 3,946 4,843 6,150 6,624 6,923 6,040 5,480 6,814 7,472 7,125 9,518 9,854 9,155 6,828 5,652 5,945 6,873 6,919 8,630 8,505 8,757 9,483 7,998

14 6,379 6,483 6,926 7,337 7,726 8,272 8,220 8,552 9,162 9,540 10,090 10,857 11,742 11,599 9,935 10,557 11,305 12,036 12,637 13,416 13,647 13,984 14,143 12,850

15 1,987 2,002 2,134 2,237 2,358 2,512 2,487 2,575 2,773 2,893 3,019 3,236 3,494 3,437 2,915 3,092 3,306 3,492 3,649 3,869 3,918 4,037 4,079 3,731

* : Average of daily weighted call money borrowing rates. # : Average of weekly outstanding MSS.

@ : Average daily closing rates. ** : Average daily closing indices.

+ : Outright turnover in Central Government dated securities. : Nil. P : Provisional.

the month. Hardening of call rates was due to tightening of liquidity in the system as a result of CRR hike and advance tax outflow (Table 2.35). However, call rates eased in January 2007 and averaged 8.18 per cent. In February 2007, the call rate further declined to around 6.5 per cent by the end of the second week. Following the announcement of a further CRR hike on February 13, 2007, it again firmed up to around 8.0 per cent by mid-February before dropping to 6.0 per cent by end of the month. Call rates averaged 7.16 per cent during February 2007. 2.88 Call money rates went below the lower bound of the repo-reverse repo corridor during the first week and the average rate was at 5.62 per cent till the midMarch. The overnight call rate hovered above the upper bound of the corridor during March 17-31, 2007 and ruled above 20 per cent on the following five days. The call rate crossed 50 per cent on March 21 and 42

March 30, 2007. The average call rate for the month was 14.07 per cent. Call money rates eased and on a daily weighted average basis ranged between 3.2712.83 per cent in the first half of April 2007 as a result of improvement in the liquidity condition following a sharp decline in government cash balances. With the first stage of CRR hike announced as part of the monetary measures on March 30, 2007 becoming effective from April 14, 2007 and government raising resources as part of its market borrowing programme, the call rate hardened in the second half of April ranging between 7.36-15.01 per cent and averaging 9.76 per cent. The average call rate for April 2007 was 8.33 per cent. During May 2007 (up to May 19, 2007), the daily weighted average call money rates ranged between 2.80-9.08 per cent and averaged 7.24 per cent, i.e., below the LAF repo rate. Increased volatility in money markets in the recent period was,

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

01-Jul-05

01-Nov-05

01-Jul-06

01-Sep-05

01-May-05

01-May-06

01-Sep-06

01-Jan-06

01-Nov-06

01-Mar-05

01-Mar-06

01-Jan-07

Collateralised Markets 2.89 After the abolition of non-bank participants (other than PDs) from uncollaterised money market since August 2005, the collateralised segment has emerged as the predominant segment of the money market. Interest rates in the collateralised segments of the money market the market repo (outside the LAF) and the Collateralised Borrowing and Lending Obligation (CBLO) segments eased in the first two months of 2006-07 as compared with the last quarter of 2005-06. However, the rates in the collateralised money market have increased gradually from June 2006, following the fixed reverse repo rate hikes and subsequent tightening of liquidity condition in September 2006. The market repo and CBLO rates, which declined to 5.15 per cent and 5.18 per cent, respectively, during April 2006, increased gradually to 7.33 per cent and 7.05 per cent, respectively, in December 2006. The market repo and CBLO segment rates declined to 6.76 per cent and 6.67 per cent, respectively, during February 2007 before climbing up to 8.13 per cent and 7.73 per cent, respectively, in March 2007 in line with the call money market. On a weighted average basis, the CBLO rate and market repo rate averaged 6.70 per cent in February 2007 and 7.86 per cent in March 2007. Interest rates in these segments, however, remained below the call rate during 2006-07 (Chart II.12). Interest rates in the CBLO and the market repo segments had remained within reporeverse repo corridor till mid-December 2006. In tandem with tightness in money markets, interest rates in these segments also edged up and hovered around the repo rate beginning the second half of December 2006, but remained below the call rate. In the subsequent spells of liquidity tightening as well, the rates in collateralised segments have, by and large, remained anchored around the repo rate, except towards end of March, 43

Market Repo (Non-RBI) CBLO

Call Money Average

when the rates exceeded LAF repo rates significantly, but remained well below the call rates. 2.90 During 2006-07, the CBLO and market repo rates averaged 6.24 per cent and 6.34 per cent, respectively, as compared with 7.22 per cent in the call money market. The CBLO and market repo rates remained well within the corridor, averaging 6.12 and 6.76 per cent, respectively, in April 2007. The CBLO and market repo rates declined below the reverse repo rate in the first half of May 2007, and then hovered around the repo rate in the third week. During April and May 2007 (up to May 19, 2007), rates in these collateralised segments of the money market more or less stayed inside or around the LAF repo rate. 2.91 The collateralised mar ket is now the predominant segment of the money market, with a share of around 70 per cent in total volume during 2006-07. Mutual funds and financial institutions are the major lenders in the CBLO mar ket, while nationalised banks are the major borrowers. In the market repo segment, mutual funds are the major providers of funds, while foreign banks, private sector banks and primary dealers are the major borrowers. 2.92 A screen-based negotiated quote-driven system for all dealings in the call/notice and term money market (NDS-CALL), as announced in the Annual Policy Statement for the year 2005-06, was launched on September 18, 2006. NDS-CALL has been developed by the Clearing Corporation of India Limited (CCIL) on behalf of the Reserve Bank and is expected to bring about increased transparency and

01-Mar-07

in part, caused by asymmetric distribution of funds and eligible collateral amongst banks. This was reinforced by asset liability mismatches in some banks who had insufficient provisions at the short-end of maturity bucket at a time when they were also short of collateral. This limited their ability to borrow in the collateralised market or obtain liquidity through the Reserve Banks LAF window, forcing them to scout for funds on adverse terms in the uncollateralised market. On its part, the Reserve Bank has been accepting all demands for liquidity made at its LAF window. Thus, the liquidity pressures emanating from advance tax flows during the second half of March 2007, accentuated in April/May and resulted in larger spikes in call rates.

Chart II.12: Movement in Key Market Rates

Per cent

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

better price discovery. Though dealing on this platform is optional, 84 banks (including 16 co-operative banks) and 7 primary dealers have taken membership of NDS-CALL so far. Liquidity Situation 2.93 Liquidity conditions remained generally comfortable during 2006-07, despite sustained growth of bank credit. Liquidity eased during April-June 2006, following reduction in the Centres surplus balances with the Reserve Bank and the impact of the Reserve Banks foreign exchange market operations. The Reserve Bank absorbed liquidity through operations under the LAF and resumed auctions of Treasury Bills under the MSS in May 2006. Under the LAF, on an average, the Reserve Bank absorbed liquidity through reverse repos to the extent of Rs.51,490 crore during April-June 2006 as against a net injection of liquidity through repos to the extent of Rs.11,686 crore during the previous quarter (January-March 2006). The average net absorption through reverse repo declined from around Rs.48,000 crore in July 2006 to Rs.12,983 crore in October 2006. In November, the average net absorption through reverse repo was at Rs.9,937 crore. However, December 2006 and January 2007 witnessed net injection of liquidity averaging Rs.1,713 crore and Rs.10,738 crore, respectively, mainly due to pressure emanating from advanced tax outflows and CRR hike in the midst of high credit growth and rise in inflation. Liquidity was absorbed through the MSS, following the reintroduction of issuances under the MSS effective May 3, 2006. An incremental amount of Rs.33,912 crore was absorbed under the MSS in the last financial year. The LAF returned to absorption mode in the second week of February 2007 and keeping in view the liquidity conditions and the paramount need to contain inflation expectations, the Reserve Bank announced another hike in the CRR on February 13, 2007. 2.94 In Febr uar y 2007, the average daily absorption through reverse repo was at Rs.648 crore. On a review of the liquidity conditions, the Reserve Bank introduced a modified arrangement in liquidity management on March 2, 2007, wherein the LAF as a facility for equilibrating very short-term mismatches was emphasised, and it was decided that the liquidity absorption would be modulated through the daily reverse repo auctions. Accordingly, beginning March 5, 2007, daily reverse repo absorption was limited to a maximum of Rs.3,000 crore each day (allocations would be propor tionate on a pro-rata basis) comprising Rs.2,000 crore in the First LAF and 44

Rs.1,000 crore in the Second LAF. Between March 5 and 15, 2007, liquidity was in surplus mode and daily absorption was close to the upper bound of Rs.3,000 crore. From March 16, 2007, however, liquidity in the system reverted to a deficit mode largely on account of quarterly direct tax payment schedules. Daily net injection of liquidity averaged Rs.31,124 crore during the second half of March and Rs.11,858 crore for the entire month of March. 2.95 In April 2007, the implementation of CRR hike in two phases impounded liquidity from the system, forcing the LAF window to go to the injection mode. The average daily net injection of liquidity through the LAF operation was Rs.8,937 crore. During the month, absorption took place for only 7 days, i.e., between April 9-15, 2007. In May 2007 (up to May 19, 2007), the Reserve Bank injected liquidity through LAF, except for the period between May 7-13, 2007. 2.96 The major issues relating to liquidity management in recent years include large and unpredictable nature of capital flows, which increased liquidity exogenously, putting upward pressure on money supply, prices and exchange rates. This necessitated appropriate sterilisation measures. Government cash balances with the Reserve Bank often display large periodic variation mainly due to lumpy character of direct tax inflows on account of quarterly payment schedule, the impact of which has become more pronounced in recent quarters due to buoyancy in tax revenue. The volatile Government cash balances also cause unanticipated expansion or contraction of the monetar y base, and consequently, making money supply management even more challenging. Over the years, the LAF has emerged as the principal operating instrument for both liquidity management and monetary policy. The MSS, on the other hand, has functioned as an additional instrument to deal with the enduring capital inflows without affecting the short-term liquidity management role of the LAF. In addition, modified arrangements for the LAF and the MSS put in place in March 2007, are expected to facilitate the maintenance of appropriate liquidity in the system and to respond more swiftly to the evolving liquidity situation in line with the objectives and stance of monetary policy. Certificates of Deposit 2.97 The demand for certificates of deposit (CDs) issued by the scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) remained strong during the fiscal year 2006-07. In view of the sustained credit demand, the SCBs resorted to deposit mobilisation through CDs. The

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

amount of outstanding CDs increased from Rs.43,568 crore at end-March 2006 (4.8 per cent of aggregate deposits of issuing banks) to Rs.93,272 crore (4.83 per cent of aggregate deposits of issuing banks with significant intra-group variation) by March 30, 2007. The overall weighted average discount rate (WADR) for CDs, which had risen to 8.62 per cent by endMarch 2006, declined to 7.03 per cent by end-April 2006. The interest rate on CDs firmed up again beginning July with the WADR rising to 10.75 per cent by March 30, 2007. As on April 13, 2007, the WADR of CDs stood at 10.15 per cent. Some of the private sector and foreign banks are also taking increased recourse to the CD route to meet the resource gap. Institutional investors such as mutual funds are investing in these certificates to deploy short-term resources. Commercial Paper 2.98 The total outstanding amount of commercial paper (CP) issued increased considerably from Rs.12,718 crore as on March 31, 2006 to Rs.17,688 crore as on March 31, 2007. The WADR, which had risen to 8.59 per cent at end-March 2006, softened by mid-May 2006. CP rates have been firming up somewhat since mid-August in tandem with the increase in money market rates. Corporates have been offering typically a yield in the range of 10.25 to 12.50 per cent for a CP with a maturity period of more than 3 months in consonance with other money market segments. Leasing and finance companies remained the predominant issuers of CP. The share of issuances by financial institutions recorded an increase during 2006-07 (Table 2.36). As on April 15, 2007, the WADR of CP stood at 10.5 per cent. Table 2.36: Commercial Paper Major Issuers
(Amount in Rs. crore) Category of Issuer March-05 1 Leasing and Finance Manufacturing Financial Institutions Total 2 8,479 (59.6) 2,881 (20.2) 2,875 (20.2) 14,235 (100) End of March-06 3 9,400 (73.9) 1,982 (15.6) 1,336 (10.5) 12,718 (100) March-07 4 12,419 (70.2) 2,754 (15.6) 2,515 (14.2) 17,688 (100)

Government Securities Market Central Government Cash Management 2.99 With a view to achieving a smooth transition to the new regime as envisaged in the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act, 2003, the WMA arrangements for 2006-07 were revised in consultation with the Government of India. As per the revised arrangement, the WMA limits were fixed on a quarterly basis instead of the existing halfyearly basis. Accordingly, the WMA limits for 2006-07 were placed at Rs.20,000 crore and Rs.10,000 crore for the first and second quarters, respectively, and Rs.6,000 crore each for the third and fourth quarters of the year. The Reserve Bank would retain the flexibility to revise the limits in consultation with the Government taking into consideration the transitional issues and prevailing circumstances. Furthermore, the interest rates on WMA and overdraft have been linked to the repo rate, following its emergence as the shor t-term reference rate. Accordingly, the interest rate on WMA is at the repo rate, while on overdraft it is at the repo rate plus two percentage points. Reflecting the improvement in its cash position, the Central Government did not resort to overdrafts during 2006-07, but availed of WMA on five occasions (39 days in all). Market Borrowings of the Central Government 2006-07 2.100 Under the FRBM Act, 2003, the Reserve Bank has been prohibited from subscribing to the primary issues of Central Government securities from the financial year beginning April 1, 2006. In order to ensure a smooth transition to the new system, the Reserve Bank has taken a number of measures to make the market deeper, broader and more liquid, while improving the trading/settlement and institutional infrastructure. 2.101 Market borrowings (including dated securities and 364-day TBs) of the Central Government for 2006-07 were budgeted at Rs.1,81,875 crore (net Rs.1,13,778 crore) which were Rs.21,857 crore higher than the actual amount raised in 2005-06. On March 24, 2006, the issuance calendar for dated securities for the first half of 2006-07 was fixed at Rs.89,000 crore (Rs.81,000 crore raised dur ing the corresponding period of previous year) in consultation with the Central Government. The actual amount raised during the first half of the year was Rs.89,000 crore, which was as per the issuance calendar. The calendar for issuance of Government of India dated 45

Note: Figures in parentheses are percentage share to the total.

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

securities for the second half of the fiscal was issued on September 25, 2006. The total amount to be raised was fixed at Rs.63,000 crore, of which an amount of Rs.57,000 crore was raised. Dated Securities 2.102 During 2006-07, gross market borrowings by way of dated securities by the Central Government amounted to Rs.1,46,000 crore as compared with Rs.1,31,000 crore during the previous year. Gross market borrowings through dated securities during 2006-07 accounted for 94 per cent of the budget estimates, same as that of the previous year. Three new securities, viz., (i) a 10-year security (7.59 % GS 2016 issued for the first time in April 2006); (ii) a 15year security (7.94 % GS 2021 issued in May 2006); and (iii) a 30-year security (8.33% GS 2036 issued in June 2006) were issued to provide benchmark in the respective segments of the secondary market. During June 2006, Rs.4,000 crore was raised outside the issuance calendar to absorb excess liquidity in the system. The additional issue was offset by reduction in the auction amount in the subsequent auctions held in July 2006. The scheduled auction in the 10-14 year segment (Rs.5,000 crore) was cancelled in the auction held on January 12, 2007, after a review of the Governments borrowing requirements. Of the 33 securities issued during 2006-07, 30 securities were re-issues. The total devolvement on PDs during the financial year was at Rs.5,604 crore. 2.103 The weighted average yield of dated securities issued during 2006-07 was higher at 7.89 per cent as compared with 7.34 per cent during 2005-06. The weighted average maturity of dated securities issued during the year worked out to 14.72 years as compared with 16.90 years during the previous year. Treasury Bills 2.104 As per the annual issuance calendar that was issued on March 24, 2006, the notified amounts of 91day, 182-day and 364-day Treasury Bills under the normal market borrowing programme were kept unchanged at Rs.500 crore (weekly auction), Rs.500 crore (for tnightly auction) and Rs.1,000 crore (fortnightly auction), respectively. During April-June 2006, the primary market yields of 91-day, 182-day and 364-day Treasury Bills firmed up due to a variety of factors such as expectations of rise in inflation, larger issuances under the MSS and the unexpected hike in repo and reverse repo rates on June 8, 2006. From July to December 2006, the yields generally remained flat amidst ample liquidity in the system. However, after 46

the announcement of a hike in CRR on December 8, 2006, the yields for 91-day, 182-day and 364-day Treasury Bills increased significantly by 45 basis points, 36 basis points and 30 basis points, respectively over the previous auctions. Yields moved further upwards following another hike in the CRR in February 2007 and tight liquidity conditions in the wake of advance tax outflows in mid-March 2007. The closing primary market yields for March 2007 in respect of 91-day, 182-day and 364-day Treasury Bills were placed at 7.98 per cent, 8.20 per cent and 7.98 per cent, respectively, exhibiting increases of 1.87 per cent, 1.59 per cent and 1.56 per cent, respectively, over the yields in the first auctions of 2006-07 (Chart II.13). 2.105 The secondary market yields of Treasury Bills during April and May 2007 remained range bound. The primary market yields during May 2007 in respect of 91-day Treasury Bills (on May 23, 2007), 182-day Treasury Bills (on May 16, 2007) and 364-day Treasury Bills (on May 23, 2007) were placed at 7.64 per cent, 7.75 per cent and 7.80 per cent, respectively. 2.106 The liquidity position of the States remained comfortable during 2006-07. Eight States availed of WMA and two States resorted to overdraft. The weekly average utilisation of WMA and overdraft by the States at Rs.234 crore in 2006-07 was lower than that of Rs.482 crore in 2005-06. Concomitantly, the weekly average investment by the States in 14-day Inter mediate Treasur y Bills during 2006-07 at Rs.43,075 crore was considerably higher than that of Rs.35,278 crore in the previous year.
Chart II.13: Movement of Primary Yields of Treasury Bills 2006-07 (April-March)

Yield (per cent)

12-Apr-06

05-Jul-06

02-Aug-06

30-Aug-06

27-Sep-06

10-May-06

22-Nov-06

20-Dec-06

26-Oct-06

17-Jan-07

14-Feb-07

14-Mar-07

91 DTB

07-Jun-06

182 DTB

364 DTB

28-Mar-07

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

Market Borrowings of the State Governments 2.107 Following the recommendation of the Twelfth Finance Commission, Central loans for State Plans were eliminated from 2005-06 and the States were expected to access the market directly for meeting their resource requirements. At the same time, overall borrowings requirements of the States, as a ratio to GDP, moderated in recent years consequent to fiscal consolidation initiatives and enhanced Central transfers. These apart, continuous accretions to NSSF, albeit at a decelerated pace, led to a sharp build up of cash balances at the State level, thereby facilitating lower net (and gross) open market borrowings by the States during 2006-07 vis--vis the previous year. 2.108 The net allocation (provisional) under the mar ket borrowing programme for the State Governments for 2006-07 was placed at Rs.17,242 crore. Taking into account additional allocations amounting to Rs.2,803 crore and repayments of Rs.6,551 crore during the year, the gross allocation amounted to Rs.26,597 crore as compared with the actual gross borrowings of Rs.21,729 crore in the previous year. The gross borrowings of the State Governments during the year amounted to Rs.20,825 crore (raised exclusively through auction route) as compared with Rs.21,729 crore (Rs.8,723 crore through auction route and Rs.11,186 crore through tap issuance) in the previous year. In the auctions of State Government market loans during the year, the spreads of the cut-off yields generally remained lower than 50 basis points. 2.109 During 2006-07, the weighted average yield of the securities issued by the State Governments was at 8.10 per cent as compared with 7.63 per cent during the previous year. The cut-off yield ranged between 7.65 and 8.66 per cent during the same period. All the issues during the fiscal were of 10year maturity. Six States did not enter the market during the year. 2.110 On a review of the State-wise limits of Normal WMA, it was decided to keep these limits unchanged for 2007-08. Accordingly, the aggregate Normal WMA limit was retained at Rs.9,875 crore for 2007-08. Secondar y Market Transactions in Government Securities 2.111 The volume of secondary market transactions increased marginally to Rs.2,64,868 crore (21 per cent 47

Chart II.14: Government Securities Turnover and Yield Curve

Rupees crore

Jul-06

Aug-06

May-06

Nov-06

Dec-06

Apr-06

Jun-06

Sep-06

Jan-07

Feb-07

Oct-06

Turnover

10-yr Yield (right scale)

of which were outright and the remaining on account of repos) in March 2007 from Rs.2,40,478 crore (19.1 per cent of which were outright and the rest on account of repos) in March 2006. An inverse relationship was evident between the volume of outright transactions and 10-year month-end yield. Turnover in government securities was lowest in July 2006 when the yield was at the peak (Chart II.14). Turnover during March 2007 (calculated as twice the outright transactions and four times the repos) was higher at Rs.9,46,608 crore as against Rs.8,70,109 crore during March 2006. Five most traded securities in NDS accounted for around 57 per cent of total transactions during March 2007, reflecting skewed distribution of liquidity across securities. Yield Movement and Yield Curve 2.112 The market borrowing programme of the Central Government during 2006-07 was higher than that in the previous year. Furthermore, oil price induced inflationary pressures and upturn in the international interest rate cycle resulted in hardening of yields vis-a-vis the previous year. 2.113 The secondary market yields during 2006-07 remained higher than those in the previous year. From a level of 7.52 per cent at end-March 2006, secondary market yields exhibited a sharp rise and moved upwards thereafter up to mid-July 2006, reflecting a variety of factors such as expectations of monetary policy tightening following the US and other

Mar-07

Per cent

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

economies, high and volatile crude oil prices, apprehension over domestic fuel pr ice hike, devolvement at auction held on July 11, 2006 on the primary dealers and hike in the reverse repo and repo rates by 25 basis points effective June 9, 2006. The 10-year yield peaked at 8.40 per cent on July 11, 2006. Yields eased thereafter on account of rally in US Treasuries following the pause in the US Federal Funds rate hikes and decline in global crude oil prices since August 2006. The announcement of issuance calendar for the second half of the fiscal, which was as per the market expectation, also helped the yields to ease further. Yields started increasing from the first week of December 2006 reflecting, inter alia, CRR hikes (in December 2006 February and March 2007) in the context of inflationary pressures, promulgation of SLR Ordinance and tightening of liquidity conditions following advance tax outflows in December 2006 and March 2007. The yields finally closed at 7.97 per cent at end-March 2007. 2.114 The announcement of CRR hike on March 30, 2007 pushed up the yields to 8.19 per cent by April 3, 2007. Volatility was witnessed in yields during April and May 2007 due to changes in the liquidity conditions. As on May 24, 2007 the yield was at 8.19 per cent. 2.115 The Reserve Banks exit from the primary auctions of central government securities and the cessation of Central loans for State Plans necessitating mobilisation of resources by the States from the market warranted not only improved liquidity but also newer instruments for managing market risks for a smooth transition to the new environment. Against this backdrop, the steps taken by the Reserve Bank towards deepening and widening of the government securities market through measures such as emphasis on passive consolidation, phased introduction of short-selling and When Issued market in government securities and allowing diversification of activities by the existing participants are expected to enhance liquidity and facilitate efficient price discovery for the smooth conduct of debt management operations. As a result of various market development measures, the combined mar ket borrowing programme for 2006-07, though larger than that in 2005-06, was completed smoothly. Foreign Exchange Market 2.116 The foreign exchange market, in general, exhibited orderly conditions with the Indian rupee moving two-way vis--vis the US dollar during 48

2005-06, despite pressures from the hike in oil prices and IMD redemptions. During 2006-07, the rupee moved in a range of Rs.43.14 46.97 per US dollar in response to switches in capital flows, movement of oil prices and liquidity conditions in the market. During May-July 2006, the rupee came under pressure due to heavy sales by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in the equity market coupled with interest rate tightening by the major central banks. The continuous hike in oil prices as a result of geo-political risks in the Middle East region also put downward pressure on the rupee. The rupee started recovering from the last week of July 2006 due to easing of oil prices. The rupee continued to gain strength against the US dollar till mid-November 2006 and reached the level of Rs.44.45 per US dollar on November 10, 2006 tracking the movement of yen/dollar rate, moderating oil pr ices, FII inflows and buoyant cor porate performance. However, heavy dollar demand by corporates and banks during the second week of November led to a sharp depreciation of rupee vis--vis the US dollar. The rupee quickly began to appreciate from November 16, 2006 due to heavy capital inflows and tight liquidity conditions in the market. The rupee stood at Rs.43.60 per US dollar on March 30, 2007, at which level it appreciated by 2.3 per cent over its level on March 31, 2006. During the same period, the rupee experienced a depreciation of 9.1 per cent against the Pound sterling, 6.8 per cent against the Euro and an appreciation of 2.7 per cent against the Japanese yen. 2.117 During 2007-08 so far (up to May 22, 2007), the rupee appreciated mainly due to strong capital inflows. The rupee at the level of Rs.40.64 per US dollar as on May 22, 2007 exper ienced an appreciation of 7.3 per cent over its level at end-March 2007. Over the same period, the rupee appreciated by 6.2 per cent, 6.8 per cent and 10.6 per cent against the euro, pound ster ling and Japanese yen, respectively (Chart II.15). 2.118 The forward rate remained in premium throughout the year 2006-07. The forward premia declined in tandem with narrowing of interest rate differentials, following monetary tightening in the US during April-May 2006. However, it started increasing from the second week of June 2006 on account of rise in interest rate differentials due to increase in domestic interest rates. Tight liquidity conditions also resulted in increase in forward premia. The average 3-month premia rose from 0.73 per cent in June 2006 to 4.51 per cent in March 2007 (Chart II.16) and further to 6.91 per cent in April 2007.

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

Chart II.15: Rupee vis--vis Major Currencies

05-Sep-06

16-Oct-06

12-Feb-06

05-May-06

26-Nov-06

16-Feb-07

25-Mar-06

15-Jun-06

05-Sep-06

05-May-06

26-Nov-06

25-Mar-06

15-Jun-06

29-Mar-07

02-Jan-06

06-Jan-07

US dollar

Euro

100 Yen

Pound Sterling

Capital Market 2.119 Resources mobilised through public issues, private placements and Euro issues were higher dur ing 2006-07 than those in the last year. Continuing the upward trend of 2005-06, the stock markets in India firmed up further during 2006-07 with the benchmark BSE Sensex closing at an alltime high of 14652.09 on February 8, 2007. However, share prices witnessed a correction thereafter on account of sell-off in global equity markets following repor ts of crisis in the US sub-prime mor tgage lending industry coupled with an unexpected drop in US February retail sales, the rise in international crude oil prices, net sales by FIIs in March 2007 in the Indian equity mar ket and decline in other international equity markets.
Chart II.16: Movement in Forward Premia

Primary Market 2.120 During 2006-07, the primary market witnessed buoyant conditions. Resource mobilisation through public issues was higher at Rs.32,382 crore (through 119 issues) during 2006-07 as compared with Rs.26,940 crore (through 138 issues) during the previous year (Table 2.37). All the public issues, except one, were by private sector companies. Further, out of 119 public issues, 116 were in the form of equity and three in debt. 2.121 Resource mobilisation through the private placement aggregated Rs.1,03,169 crore during April-December 2006, which was 50.8 per cent higher than that in the corresponding period of 2005. The public sector entities accounted for 42.0 per cent of total resource mobilisation through pr ivate placement during April-December 2006 as compared with 56.9 per cent in the corresponding period of 2005 (Table 2.37). Resources mobilised by financial intermediaries (both public and private sector) increased by 63.3 per cent to Rs.71,621 crore during April-December 2006 from Rs.43,868 crore in the corresponding period of the last year. 2.122 Resource mobilisation through Euro issues by way of American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and Global Depository Receipts (GDRs) increased by 49.8 per cent during 2006-07. There were 40 Euro issues during 2006-07 amounting to Rs.17,005 crore as compared with 48 issues aggregating Rs.11,352 crore during 2005-06 (Table 2.37). 2.123 Resource mobilisation by mutual funds (net of redemption) increased sharply by 78.1 per cent during 2006-07 to Rs.93,985 crore. UTI Mutual Fund witnessed higher net inflows of Rs.7,326 crore during 2006-07 than Rs.3,424 crore during the previous year. Public sector mutual funds and private sector mutual 49

Per cent per annum

Mar-05 Apr-05 May-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Aug-05 Sep-05 Oct-05 Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07

1-month

3-month

6-month

29-Mar-07

02-Jan-06

06-Jan-07

16-Oct-06

12-Feb-06

16-Feb-07

26-Jul-06

26-Jul-06

Rs. per Pound Sterling

Rs. per Euro/ 100 Yen

Rs. per US dollar

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 2.37: Mobilisation of Resources through the Primary Market*

(Amount in Rupees crore) Item No. of Issues 1 A. Public Issues @ (Prospectus and Rights) I. Public Sector II. Private Sector B. Private Placement I. Public Sector II. Private Sector C. Euro Issues@@ 2 59 5 54 910 193 717 12 2004-05 Amount 3 21,892 8,410 13,482 83,405 47,611 35,794 2,730 No. of Issues 4 138 7 131 1,112 168 944 48 2005-06 Amount 5 26,940 5,786 21,154 96,369 55,164 41,205 11,352 2006-07# No. of Issues 6 119 1 118 1,195 84 1,111 40 Amount 7 32,382 782 31,600 1,03,169 43,373 59,796 17,005

* : Including both debt and equity. # : For Private Placement, data pertain to April-December. @ : Excluding offer for sale. @@ : Excluding FCCBs Note : Estimates are based on information gathered from arrangers, FIs and SEBI.

funds recorded net inflows of Rs.7,621 crore and Rs.79,038 crore, respectively, during 2006-07, which were significantly higher than those in the previous year (Table 2.38). Scheme-wise, 5.3 per cent of the net mobilisation of funds was under liquid/money mar ket or iented schemes dur ing 2006-07 (as compared with 8.0 per cent during the previous year) and 63.9 per cent under debt oriented schemes (26.5 per cent during the previous year). Funds mobilised under equity-linked savings schemes, on the other hand, accounted for 4.7 per cent of net mobilisation of funds as compared with 6.8 per cent during the previous year. During 2006-07, there was a net outflow of 1.0 per cent under Gilt oriented schemes as compared with net outflow of 3.0 per cent during the previous year. Secondary Market 2.124 The stock markets remained firm till May 10, 2006, when both the BSE Sensex and S&P CNX Nifty Table 2.38: Net Resource Mobilisation by Mutual Funds
(Rupees crore) Category 1 I. UTI Mutual Fund 2004-05 2 -2,722 7,599 -2,677 2,200 2005-06 3 3,424 42,977 6,379 52,780 2006-07 4 7,326 79,038 7,621 93,985

II. Private Sector III. Public Sector Total (I+II+III)

Source : Securities and Exchange Board of India.

closed at all-time high levels of 12612.38 and 3754.25, respectively, mainly on account of net FII investments on the back of strong macroeconomic fundamentals, robust corporate earnings, firm trend in international equity markets and rise in metal prices. However, the markets witnessed a sharp correction beginning May 11, 2006 mainly due to net heavy sales by FIIs caused by a fear of rise in global interest rates, sharp fall in base metal prices at London Metal Exchange, rise in global crude oil prices and fear of higher domestic inflation. The BSE Sensex slipped to 8929.44 by June 14, 2006, recording a decline of 20.8 per cent over end-March 2006. Stock markets, however, recovered thereafter on fresh buying by FIIs and mutual funds, robust Q2 and Q3 cor porate results of major companies, upward trend in the international equity markets, appreciation of rupee against US dollar, near normal monsoon, decline in global crude oil prices, US Federal Reserves decision to keep interest rates unchanged, rise in metal prices on London Metal Exchange and other sector and stock specific news. The BSE Sensex reached new all-time high on February 8, 2007 to close at 14652.09. However, between February 9, 2007 and end-March 2007, the key indices witnessed a downward trend on concerns over rising domestic inflation, nervousness across international equity markets, reports of crisis in US sub-pr ime mor tgage lending segment, r ise in international crude oil prices and net sales by FIIs in the Indian equity market. The BSE Sensex closed at 13072.10 on March 30, 2007, registering an increase of 1792 points or 15.9 per cent over end-March 2006. During the year 2006-07 on an average basis, it increased by 48.3 per cent over the previous year. 50

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

The BSE 500 and BSE Mid-cap during 2006-07 increased by 9.7 per cent and 0.66 per cent, respectively, while the BSE Small-cap declined by 1.9 per cent. 2.125 During 2007-08 so far (up to May 21, 2007), the domestic stock markets remained firm with intermittent corrections. Both the BSE Sensex and S&P CNX Nifty closed higher at 14418.60 and 4260.90 on May 21, 2007, registering gains of 10.3 per cent and 11.5 per cent, respectively, over their level at end-March 2007. Robust Q4 corporate results, strong macroeconomic fundamentals, decline in domestic annual inflation rate, upward trend in major international equity markets, net purchases by FIIs and mutual funds in the Indian equity market, rise in metal prices on London Metal Exchange and reports of a normal South-West monsoon forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) aided the market sentiment. 2.126 The market capitalisation of the BSE surged to 86.5 per cent of GDP at end-March 2007 from 84.7 per cent of GDP at end-March 2006. The total turnover of BSE and NSE during April-March 200607 at Rs.28,99,916 crore recorded an increase of 21.6 per cent over the corresponding period of last year. The price-earning ratio (P/E) of the BSE Sensex at 20.33 at end-March 2007 was lower than 20.92 at end-March 2006 (Table 2.39). The P/E ratio was 21.04 as on May 23, 2007. Volatility declined during 2006-07. 2.127 An analysis of sectoral trends during 2006-07 suggests that buying interest was witnessed in oil and Table 2.39: Trends in Stock Markets
Item BSE April-March 2005-06 1 1. Average BSE Sensex/ S&P CNX Nifty 2. Volatility (Coefficient of Variation) 3. Turnover (Rs. crore) 2 8280 16.72 8,16,074 2006-07 3 12277 11.09 2005-06 4 2513 15.60 2006-07 5 3572 10.36 NSE

Chart II.17: Trends in Sectoral Stock Indices (Normalised to March 31, 2006=100)

31-Mar-06 24-Apr-06

05-Jul-06 24-Jul-06

14-Nov-06 01-Dec-06

12-May-06 31-May-06 19-Jun-06

20-Dec-06 10-Jan-07 31-Jan-07

10-Aug-06 30-Aug-06

18-Sep-06 06-Oct-06 26-Oct-06

20-Feb-07 09-Mar-07

BSE 500 PSU

CD Bankex

CG FMCG

IT BSE Sensex

gas, IT, banking, capital goods and consumer durables, while FMCG, healthcare, auto, metal and PSU sector underperformed (Chart II.17). The oil and gas stocks gained primarily on account of rise in global crude oil prices. IT stocks capitalised on the rising demand for IT and IT enabled services abroad coupled with robust corporate performance of IT companies. Rising demand for credit to meet increasing capacity additions, undertaking of infrastructure projects and high growth in personal loans are mainly responsible for boosting banking sector scrips. Capital goods stocks have risen due to pick up in investment activity and strong industrial and infrastructure performance, reflecting the overall growth in the economy. On the other hand, auto stocks lost on account of rise in steel prices and interest rates, while FMCG stocks suffered due to lack of demand on account of rise in prices of consumer goods. 2.128 According to the SEBI data, investments by FIIs in Indian equities during 2006-07 at Rs.25,236 crore were lower than those in 2005-06. However, net investments in debt were at Rs.5,605 crore as against net outflows in the previous year. Investments by mutual funds in equities were lower at Rs.9,024 crore during 2006-07 than those in the corresponding period of the previous year. However, investments by mutual funds in debt were substantially higher at Rs.52,546 crore in 2006-07 than those in 2005-06 (Table 2.40). Net investments by FIIs and mutual funds during 2007-08 (up to May 22, 2007) aggregated Rs.8,785 crore and Rs.2,704 crore, respectively. 51

9,56,185 15,69,556 19,44,645

4. Market Capitalisation (end-period) (Rs.crore) 30,22,191 35,45,041 28,13,201 33,67,350 (Per cent of GDP) 84.7 86.5 78.9 82.1 5. P/E ratio (end-period) 20.92 20.33 20.26 18.40

Source: The Bombay Stock Exchange Limited (BSE) and The National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE).

29-Mar-07

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 2.40: Institutional Investments in the Stock Market

(Rupees crore) Year Equity 1 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2 8,067 2,528 39,959 44,123 48,542 25,236 FIIs Debt 3 685 60 5,805 1,759 -7,065 5,605 Mutual Funds Equity 4 -3,796 -2,067 1,308 448 14,302 9,024 Debt 5 10,959 12,604 22,701 16,987 36,801 52,546

Source: Securities and Exchange Board of India.

2.129 The total turnover in the derivatives segment on NSE during 2006-07 remained significantly higher than the turnover in the cash segment (Table 2.41). Table 2.41: Turnover in Derivatives Market vis--vis Cash Market in NSE
(Rupees crore) Year 1 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 Derivatives 2 1,01,926 4,39,862 21,30,610 25,46,982 48,24,174 73,56,242 Cash 3 5,13,167 6,17,989 10,99,535 11,40,071 15,69,556 19,45,285

expansion was more pronounced in respect of the retail sector, par ticularly housing and loans to commercial real estate. Credit to the priority sector increased by 33.7 per cent in 2005-06 as against 40.3 per cent in the previous year. The agriculture and housing sectors were the major beneficiaries, which together accounted for more than two-third of incremental priority sector lending in 2005-06. Credit to the small scale industries also accelerated. Owing to large credit offtake, the incremental C-D ratio remained generally above 100 per cent during the year. The growth in deposits (17.8 per cent during 2005-06), though higher than the previous year (16.6 per cent), was insufficient to meet the high credit demand forcing the banks to liquidate their holdings of Government securities. 2.132 Net profits of SCBs, as a group, increased by 17.5 per cent as against the decline of 5.9 per cent in the previous year mainly due to a turnaround in noninterest income (Table 2.42). However, net profit as a percentage of total assets was roughly the same as that in the previous year. Gross NPAs at 3.3 per cent and net NPAs at 1.2 per cent at end-March 2006 were significantly lower than those of 5.2 per cent and 2.0 per cent, respectively, at end-March 2005. Banks capital to risk-weighted assets ratio remained more or less at the previous years level (12.3 per cent at end-March 2006 as against 12.8 per cent at endMarch 2005), despite shar p increase in r iskweighted assets, increase in risk weights on lending to certain sectors and application of capital charge for market risk. 2.133 Operations of urban co-operative banks (UCBs) witnessed moderate growth during 2005-06 facilitated mainly by deposits growth. While loans and advances and investments witnessed a moderate growth, non-SLR investments grew significantly. A shar p growth was also noticed in shor t-ter m deployment of funds. The financial performance of scheduled UCBs improved significantly. Asset quality of UCBs improved markedly, both in absolute terms and relative to the loan portfolio (Table 2.43). 2.134 Till the early 1990s, FIs were funded through concessional resources by way of Government guaranteed bonds and advances from Long-Term Operations (LTO) Fund of the Reser ve Bank. Currently, FIs can raise their total resources, shortter m as well as long-ter m, such that the total outstanding of such funds at any point of time does not exceed 10 times of their Net Owned Fund (NOF) as per their latest audited balance sheet. Within this overall ceiling, an umbrella limit has been fixed for 52

Source: The National Stock Exchange of India Ltd (NSE).

V. BANKS AND FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 2.130 Robust macroeconomic perfor mance continued to underpin the business operations and financial perfor mance of all types of financial institutions. The total assets of Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) expanded by 18.4 per cent during 2005-06. The ratio of assets of SCBs to GDP at factor cost at current prices increased to 86.9 per cent at end-March 2006 from 82.8 per cent at end-March 2005, suggesting a faster growth of the banking system in relation to the real economy. In the backdrop of robust growth performance in industrial and services sectors during 2005-06, bank credit witnessed a strong expansion for the second year in succession. 2.131 Loans and advances of SCBs registered robust growth of 31.8 per cent during 2005-06 on top of the high growth of 33.2 per cent in 2004-05. The credit growth was broad-based even as credit

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

Table 2.42: Important Parameters of Select Bank Groups

(Per cent) Bank Group 1 Operating Expenses/Total Assets Scheduled Commercial Banks Public Sector Banks Old Private Sector Banks New Private Sector Banks Foreign Banks Spread/Total Assets Scheduled Commercial Banks Public Sector Banks Old Private Sector Banks New Private Sector Banks Foreign Banks Net Profit/Total Assets Scheduled Commercial Banks Public Sector Banks Old Private Sector Banks New Private Sector Banks Foreign Banks Gross NPAs to Gross Advances Scheduled Commercial Banks Public Sector Banks Old Private Sector Banks New Private Sector Banks Foreign Banks Net NPAs to Net Advances Scheduled Commercial Banks Public Sector Banks Old Private Sector Banks New Private Sector Banks Foreign Banks CRAR Scheduled Commercial Banks Public Sector Banks Old Private Sector Banks New Private Sector Banks Foreign Banks .. : Not Available. 1996-97 2 2002-03 3 2003-04 4 2004-05 5 2005-06 6

2.9 2.9 2.5 1.9 3.0 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.9 4.1 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.7 1.2 15.7 17.8 10.7 2.6 4.3 8.1 9.2 6.6 2.0 1.9 10.4 10.0 11.7 15.3 ..

2.2 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.5 1.7 3.4 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.6 8.8 9.4 8.9 7.6 5.3 4.4 4.5 5.5 4.6 1.8 12.7 12.6 12.8 11.3 15.2

2.2 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.6 2.0 3.6 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.8 1.7 7.2 7.8 7.6 5.0 4.6 2.9 3.0 3.8 2.4 1.5 12.9 13.2 13.7 10.2 15.0

2.1 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.2 3.3 0.9 0.9 0.3 1.1 1.3 5.2 5.5 6.0 3.6 2.8 2.0 2.1 2.7 1.9 0.8 12.8 12.9 12.5 12.1 14.0

2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.1 3.5 0.9 0.8 0.6 1.0 1.5 3.3 3.7 4.3 1.7 1.9 1.2 1.3 1.6 0.8 0.8 12.3 12.2 11.7 12.6 13.0

eight institutions, viz., IFCI, EXIM bank, SIDBI, IIBI, TFCI, NABARD, and NHB. In terms of the umbrella limit, each of these FIs can raise resources through term money, CP, CDs, inter-corporate deposits (ICDs) and term deposits, equivalent to 100 per cent of its NOF as per its latest audited balance sheet. 2.135 The aggregate umbrella limits of these select FIs for raising resources increased from Rs.16,657 crore as on March 31, 2006 to Rs.19,001 crore as on March 30, 2007. The aggregate outstanding resources raised by these FIs under the umbrella limit increased 53

from Rs.1,204 crore (7.2 per cent of aggregate limit) as on March 31, 2006 to Rs.3,293 crore (17.33 per cent of aggregate limit) as on March 30, 2007. Based on outstanding position as on March 30, 2007, FIs raised bulk of resources through commercial paper (Rs.2,540 crore), followed by certificate of deposits (Rs.664 crore) and term deposits (Rs.90 crore). FIs, active in mobilising resources through these instruments during 2006-07 have been EXIM Bank, NHB and SIDBI. None of the FIs mobilised resources through term money or inter-corporate deposit during the period.

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 2.43: Urban Co-operative Banks Select Financial Indicators

Indicator 1 2004-05 2 2005-06 3

Table 2.45: Consolidated Balance Sheets of NBFCs

(Amount in Rupees crore) Item As at end-March 2004 1 2 2005 3 2006 4

Growth in Major Aggregates (Per cent) Deposits Credit Financial Indicators@ (as percentage of total assets) Operating Profits Net Profits Spread Gross Non-Performing Assets (as percentage of advances)

-4.7 -1.6

6.9 5.2

Liabilities 1. Paid up capital 2. Reserves and Surplus 2,327 (7.1) 4,414 (13.5) 4,317 (13.2) 20,852 (63.7) 844 (2.6) 32,754 2,206 (6.1) 4,544 (12.6) 3,926 (10.9) 23,044 (64.0) 2,283 (6.3) 36,003 1,949 (5.5) 4,838 (13.6) 2,667 (7.5) 23,641 (66.5) 2,466 (6.9) 35,561

0.8 0.2 1.8 23.4

1.1 0.5 1.9 19.7

3. Public Deposits 4. Borrowings 5. Other Liabilities Total Liabilities/Assets

@ : Relates to Scheduled Urban Co-operative Banks.

2.136 Financial performance of all-India financial institutions (AIFIs) improved significantly during 2005-06 (Table 2.44). Financial assistance sanctioned and disbursed by FIs, including AIFIs, specialised financial institutions and investment institutions, increased by 38.9 per cent and 33.9 per cent, respectively, during 2005-06 as compared with a sharp decline of 45.1 per cent and 37.0 per cent, respectively, during the previous year. Almost all categories of financial institutions witnessed a high growth dur ing 2005-06 as against the var ied performance witnessed during 2004-05. 2.137 Capital adequacy ratio of FIs, barring the two loss-making institutions, continued to be significantly higher than the prescribed norms. However, CRAR of IIBI and IFCI eroded further during the year on account of continued financial losses. The higher Table 2.44: Financial Institutions Select Performance Indicators
Indicator 1 Balance Sheet Indicators (as percentage total assets) Operating Profits Net Profits Spread Resource flows (Rupees crore) Sanctions Disbursements 2004-05 2 2005-06 3

Assets 1. Investments i) SLR Investments ii) Non-SLR Investments 2. Loans and Advances 3. Hire Purchase Assets 4. Equipment Leasing Assets 5. Bill business 6. Other Assets 1,707 (5.2) 2,110 (6.4) 12,363 (37.7) 11,649 (35.6) 3,036 (9.3) 436 (1.3) 1,453 (4.4) 2,237 (6.2) 1,720 (4.8) 12,749 (35.4) 14,400 (40.0) 2,025 (5.6) 471 (1.3) 2,401 (6.7) 1,314 (3.7) 2,275 (6.4) 9,199 (25.9) 19,893 (55.9) 1,620 (4.6) 45 (0.1) 1,215 (3.4)

Note : 1. Number of reporting NBFCs declined to 466 in 2006 from 703 in 2005. 2. Figures in parentheses are percentages to total liabilities/ assets.

1.2 0.8 1.6

1.4 1.0 1.8

lending rates accompanied with reduced costs resulted in higher spread for FIs as the net interest income as percentage of total assets increased to 1.8 per cent in 2005-06 from 1.6 per cent in 2004-05. Non-interest income of FIs also registered a significant increase during the year. 2.138 Total assets/liabilities of NBFCs (excluding RNBCs), which had increased by 9.9 per cent during 2004-05, declined by 1.2 per cent during 2005-06 (Table 2.45). Borrowings, which represent a major source of funds for NBFCs, increased at a lower rate of 2.6 per cent during 2005-06 as compared with a growth of 10.5 per cent in the previous year. While owned funds (capital and reserves) registered a marginal increase, public deposits declined by 32.1 54

9,091 6,279

11,942 9,237

Note : 1. Data on balance sheet indicators relate to IFCI, IIBI, TFCI, NABARD, NHB, SIDBI and EXIM Bank. 2. Data on resource flows pertain to IFCI, SIDBI and IIBI.

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

per cent during 2005-06. On the asset side, loans and advances and hire purchase assets together accounted for more than three-fourth of total assets. While loans and advances declined by 27.8 per cent, hire purchase assets increased by 38.1 per cent during 2005-06. Among NBFC groups, while assets/ liabilities of hire purchase finance companies increased, those of equipment leasing companies, investment and loan companies declined during the year ended March 2006. This broadly reflected the impact of resources raised through deposits and borrowings. Hire purchase finance companies were the largest NBFC group at end-March 2006, followed distantly by equipment leasing companies, investment companies and loan companies. 2.139 Assets of three RNBCs increased by 14.9 per cent during the year ended March 2006. Their assets in the for m of fixed deposits with banks and unencumbered approved secur ities increased sharply, while those in bonds/debentures and other investments increased marginally (Table 2.46). Net Table 2.46: Profile of Residuary Non-Banking Companies (RNBCs)
(Rupees crore) Item As at end-March 2004 1 I. Assets (i to v) (i) Unencumbered approved securities (ii) Fixed deposits with banks (iii) Bonds or debentures or commercial papers* (iv) Other investments (v) Other assets 2 20,362 5,824 2,033 6,048 2,059 4,398 1,002 2,055 2,055 1,813 1,368 129 316 32 242 210 2005 3 19,057 2,037 4,859 9,225 1,639 1,297 1,065 1,532 1,530 2 1,396 1,176 146 74 48 136 88 2006 4 21,891 2,346 6,070 9,577 1,658 2,240 1,183 1,620 1,616 3 1,439 1,165 159 115 22 180 158

owned funds of RNBCs increased by 11.1 per cent during 2005-06. 2.140 Sustained efforts by the Government, the Reserve Bank and by banks themselves have resulted in a competitive, healthy and resilient financial system. The asset quality and soundness parameters of the Indian banking sector, on the whole, are now comparable with global levels. This has been achieved in the backdrop of gradual alignment of prudential norms with best international standards and in an environment of growing competitive pressures. VI. EXTERNAL SECTOR Global Economic Outlook 2.141 The global economy continued to expand at a robust pace in 2006. As against the growth rate of 4.9 per cent in 2005, the IMF has placed the growth of global economy at 5.4 per cent for 2006 and projected it to moderate to 4.9 per cent during 2007 (Chart II.18). Despite a moderate slowdown in the third quarter, all the major advanced economies including the US, Japan and OECD countries showed a higher growth in the fourth quarter of 2006 before dipping in the first quarter of 2007. 2.142 In the US, real GDP growth (year-on-year basis) in the fourth quarter of 2006 increased to 3.1 per cent from 3.0 per cent in the third quarter (Table 2.47). The acceleration in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter primarily reflected a downturn in imports and acceleration in exports and also
Chart II.18: World Output Growth

II. Net Owned Funds III. Total Income (i+ii) (i) Fund Income (ii) Fee Income IV. Total Expenses (i+ii+iii) (i) Financial Cost (ii) Operating Cost (iii) Other cost V. Provision for Taxation VI. Operating Profit (PBT) VII. Net profit (PAT)

Per cent

2007 P

* : Of Government companies/public sector banks/public financial institutions/corporations. : Nil/Negligible. Note : 1. PBT Profit before tax. 2. PAT Profit after tax.

World

Advanced Economies

Other Emerging Market and Developing Economies P : Projections.

55

2008 P

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 2.47: Country-wise Growth Rates (Year-on-Year basis)

(Per cent) Country/Region 1 Advanced Economies Euro area Japan Korea OECD UK US Emerging Economies Argentina Brazil China India Indonesia Malaysia Thailand 2005 2 1.4 1.9 4.2 2.5 1.9 3.2 9.2 2.9 10.4 9.2 5.7 5.2 4.5 2006-Q1 3 2.2 3.0 6.3 3.3 2.4 3.7 8.6 3.4 10.3 9.3 5.0 5.3 6.1 2006-Q2 4 2.8 2.1 5.1 3.3 2.8 3.5 7.9 1.2 10.9 8.9 5.0 6.2 5.0 2006-Q3 5 2.8 1.4 4.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 8.7 3.2 10.7 9.2 5.9 5.8 4.7 2006-Q4 6 3.3 2.2 4.0 3.3 3.0 3.1 8.6 3.8 10.7 8.6 6.1 5.7 4.2 2006 7 2.7 2.2 5.0 3.0 2.7 3.3 8.5 3.7 10.7 9.2 5.5 5.9 5.0 2007-Q1 8 3.1 2.0 4.0 .. 2.8 2.1 .. .. 11.1 .. .. .. .. 2007 P 9 2.3 2.3 4.4 2.5 2.9 2.2 7.5 4.4 10.0 8.4 6.0 5.5 4.5

P : IMF Projection. .. Not available. Source : IMF, The Economist, OECD and ECB Bulletin, May 2007.

acceleration in private consumption expenditure for non-durable goods. For the year 2006, as a whole, real GDP growth in the US was marginally higher than in 2005. The Japanese economy continued to recover in 2006, driven by strong expor ts and steady domestic demand. In China, GDP growth continued to remain robust as both domestic and external demand expanded strongly. The rate of increase in fixed asset investment remained high, a l t h o u g h i t s l owe d s o m ew h a t o n a c c o u n t o f tightening measures introduced in the mid-2006. 2.143 Growth prospects of global economy remain subject to certain downside risks. However, the risks to growth outlook are less threatening than were expected earlier. Although, overall risk perceptions about satisfactory global growth are modest, certain uncertainties and concerns are still raised in terms of revival of inflation pressures as output gaps continue to narrow, oil price rise, risk of sharper slowdown in US economy in case the housing sector continues to deteriorate, financial market volatility and possible disorderly adjustment of global imbalances. 2.144 According to the IMF, the world trade volume increased by 9.2 per cent in 2006 (7.4 per cent in 2005) but its growth is projected to decelerate to 7.0 per cent in 2007. Growth in world trade prices of manufactures accelerated from 3.4 per cent in 2005 to 4.4 per cent in 2006 (Chart II.19). According to the IMF, the private net capital flows to emerging and developing countries recorded a marginal fall from 56

US$ 257.2 billion in 2005 to US$ 255.8 billion in 2006; capital flows are projected to fall further to US$ 252.7 billion in 2007 mainly on account of projected decline in private portfolio flows. 2.145 International financial markets experienced a pullback in prices after a brief period of turbulence in May-June 2006. There has been a significant recovery of prices across a wide spectrum of assets since endJune. Equity markets have rallied with prices in major
Chart II.19: Growth in World Trade Volume and Prices

Per cent

2007 P

World Trade Volume World Trade Prices of Manufactures (in US $) World Trade Prices of Manufactures (in SDRs) P : Projections.

2008 P

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

advanced and emerging economies exceeding the cyclical highs reached in May 2006. In most of the emerging economies, financial markets remained firm towards the end of 2006. Despite a bout of financial volatility in February-March 2007 and rising concerns about the US sub-prime mortgage market, equity markets remain close to all-time highs. Fur ther more, real long ter m bond yields have remained below long-term trends, and risks spreads have narrowed in most markets. 2.146 During 2006, the average petroleum spot prices rose by 20.5 per cent. After reaching a record high of US$ 78.4 a barrel in July 2006, the average petroleum spot price fell sharply to around US$ 58 US$ 61 a barrel during October-December 2006 which largely reflected some easing of tensions in the Middle East, improved supply-demand balance in oil markets, and favorable weather conditions in the second half of 2006. In early 2007, oil prices witnessed a further brief dip, falling to just over US$50 a barrel, before rebounding in late March 2007 to almost US$65 a barrel. Oil prices recovered with a strengthening of demand due to colder weather, fur ther OPEC production cuts, and declining inventories in key OECD economies. Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also pushed prices up at end-March. The International Energy Agency in its Report released on May 11, 2007, has placed the global oil demand at 85.7 million barrel per day (mb/d) for 2007, up from 84.2 mb/d in 2006. Indias Merchandise Trade 2.147 Indias merchandise trade both exports and imports maintained its high growth momentum during 2005-06. According to DGCI&S, expor ts registered a growth of 23 per cent in 2005-06 compared with 31 per cent in the preceding year. The growth in exports was attributable mainly to the favourable global demand conditions, increasing competitiveness of Indias manufactured products, firming up of commodity prices and suppor tive domestic policy measures. In 2005, India was one of the fastest growing exporting countries in the world (Table 2.48). Merchandise imports also registered a growth of 29 per cent in 2005-06 on top of 43 per cent a year ago due to sharp increase in oil imports in the wake of rise in international crude oil prices. With the imports far outstripping exports, the trade deficit widened to US $ 40.3 billion in 2005-06 from US $ 28.0 billion a year ago. 2.148 Export growth during 2005-06 was broadbased across major product groups. Primary product 57

Table 2.48: Global Merchandise Export Growth

(Per cent) Country/Region January-December 2005 1 World Industrial Countries United States Japan Germany Developing Countries China India Korea Indonesia Malayasia Singapore Thailand 2 13.9 8.5 10.8 5.2 7.3 21.9 28.4 29.6 12.0 18.2 12.0 15.6 14.5 2006 3 15.6 12.6 14.5 9.2 15.1 19.6 27.2 21.5 14.4 16.5 14.0 18.4 18.7

Sources: 1. International Financial Statistics, IMF. 2. DGCI&S for India.

exports recorded a growth of 21 per cent during 200506. Manufactured exports maintained the growth momentum. Export of textiles and textile products posted an accelerated growth in a quota free environment. Technology intensive items such as transport equipments and machinery and instruments also posted a strong growth. During 2005-06, petroleum products exports rose sharply by 65 per cent and emerged as one of the major export items. 2.149 On the imports front, oil imports surged by 47 per cent during 2005-06 (April-March) mainly due to increase in international crude oil prices. The average crude oil price (Indian basket) at US $ 55.3 per barrel was higher by 42.2 per cent during 2005-06 compared with a year ago. In volume terms, the POL imports registered a lower growth of 4.2 per cent compared with 5.5 per cent a year ago. 2.150 Non-oil imports decelerated during 2005-06 (April-March) mainly due to deceleration in the import of gold and silver and pearl, precious and semiprecious stones. Imports of mainly industrial inputs (non-oil impor ts net of gold and silver, bulk consumption goods, manufactured fertilisers and professional impor ts), however, posted a strong growth of 34.7 per cent on top of 41.4 per cent a year ago. The growth of capital goods imports (mainly comprising metals, machine tools, machinery and electronic goods) at 49.9 per cent during 2005-06 (37.5 per cent a year ago) reflected the continued investment demand in an environment of buoyant industrial activity and capacity building in Indias manufacturing.

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 2.49: Indias Foreign Trade

(US $ million) Item 2003-04 1 Exports Oil Non-Oil Imports Oil Non-Oil Trade Balance Oil Non-Oil 2 63,843 (21.1) 3,568 (38.5) 60,274 (20.2) 78,149 (27.3) 20,569 (16.6) 57,580 (31.5) -14,307 -17,001 2,694 April-March 2004-05 3 83,536 (30.8) 6989 (95.9) 76,547 (27.0) 111,517 (42.7) 29,844 (45.1) 81,673 (41.8) -27,981 -22,855 -5,127 2005-06 4 103,101 (23.4) 11526 (64.9) 91,575 (19.6) 143,430 (28.6) 43,963 (47.3) 99,466 (21.8) -40,329 -32,437 -7,892 2006-07 5 124,598 (20.9) .. .. 181,343 (26.4) 57,308 (30.4) 124,035 (24.7) -56,745 .. ..

of the fiscal year, non-oil imports picked up from September 2006. Oil imports, on the other hand, moderated due to softening of oil prices. 2.153 Trade deficit during 2006-07 widened to US $ 56.7 billion from US $ 40.3 billion a year ago. The non-oil trade deficit increased by 52.6 per cent to US $ 14.2 billion during April-January 2006-07, while the deficit on the oil account widened by 23.2 per cent to US $ 32.3 billion during the same period. 2.154 Commodity-wise data for 2006-07 (AprilJanuary) displayed marked dissimilarities in export performance (Table 2.50). While engineering goods and petroleum product posted a high growth, export growth of other major items like primary products, chemicals and related products, textiles and gems and jewellery moderated. Exports of petroleum products posted a growth of 62.2 per cent in US dollar terms, accounting for 30.2 per cent of the increase in total exports. Exports of agriculture and allied products moderated during April-January 2006-07, even as expor ts of tea, tobacco, spices and sugar and molasses posted a high growth. The growth of manufactured product exports decelerated to 16.1 per cent during the same period from 22.9 per cent a year ago. Among the major items in the manufactured goods category, exports of engineering goods (such as machinery and instruments, manufactures of metals, iron and steel and electronics) registered a strong growth, while those of gems and jewellery, chemicals, leather, textiles and handicrafts declined or decelerated.

.. : Not available. Note : Figures in parentheses are year-on-year growth rates. Source : DGCI&S.

2.151 Destination-wise, the US continued to be the principal export destination, accounting for 16.8 per cent of Indias total exports in 2005-06 (April-March), followed by UAE (8.3 per cent), China (6.6 per cent), Singapore (5.3 per cent) and UK (4.9 per cent). 2.152 Dur ing 2006-07, merchandise expor ts registered a growth of 20.9 per cent (Table 2.49). Imports posted a growth of 26.4 per cent, with nonoil imports contributing 64.9 per cent of increase in imports. After registering a slowdown at the beginning

Table 2.50: Indias Principal Exports

April-March Item (US $ million) 2004-05 1 Primary Products Agricultural & Allied Products Ores & Minerals Manufactured Goods Leather & Manufactures Chemicals & Related Products Engineering Goods Textiles and Textile Products Gems & Jewellery Handicrafts Carpets Petroleum Products Total Exports Source: DGCI&S. 2 13553 8475 5079 60731 2422 12444 17348 13555 13762 377 636 6989 83536 2005-06 3 16377 10213 6164 72230 2691 14757 21463 16350 15529 458 848 11526 103101 April-March Growth rate (Per cent) 2004-05 4 36.9 12.5 114.4 25.2 12.0 31.7 39.8 6.0 30.2 -24.5 8.7 95.9 30.8 2005-06 5 20.8 20.5 21.4 18.9 11.1 18.6 23.7 20.6 12.8 21.3 33.2 64.9 23.4 April-January (US $ million) 2005-06 6 12761 8026 4735 58041 2203 11726 17175 13145 12593 385 694 9452 82396 2006-07 7 14959 9598 5361 67372 2401 13427 23468 13965 12850 306 742 15331 101846 April-January Growth rate (Per cent) 2005-06 8 29.4 22.3 43.3 22.9 12.1 20.4 30.5 23.0 17.5 22.3 34.9 66.8 27.7 2006-07 9 17.2 19.6 13.2 16.1 9.0 14.5 36.6 6.2 2.0 -20.7 6.8 62.2 23.6

58

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

Table 2.51: Major Destinations of Indias Exports

April-March Country (US $ million) 2004-05 1 USA UAE UK Hong Kong Germany China Japan Belgium Singapore Italy Bangladesh Sri Lanka France Source: DGCI&S. 2 13766 7348 3681 3692 2826 5616 2128 2510 4001 2286 1631 1413 1681 2005-06 3 17353 8592 5059 4471 3586 6759 2481 2871 5425 2519 1664 2025 2080 April-March Growth rate (Per cent) 2004-05 4 19.8 43.4 21.8 13.2 11.1 90.0 24.5 39.0 88.3 32.2 -6.3 7.1 31.2 2005-06 5 26.1 16.9 37.4 21.1 26.9 20.4 16.6 14.4 35.6 10.2 2.0 43.3 23.7 April-January (US $ million) 2005-06 6 14108 6847 4164 3584 2842 5177 1999 2294 4382 1967 1354 1648 1665 2006-07 7 15486 9873 4547 3676 3164 6438 2266 2803 4766 2910 1310 1712 1707 April-January Growth rate (Per cent) 2005-06 8 27.2 20.5 46.7 25.9 30.4 45.6 24.9 17.9 45.7 12.7 6.5 48.1 25.5 2006-07 9 9.8 44.2 9.2 2.6 11.3 24.3 13.3 22.2 8.8 48.0 -3.2 3.9 2.5

2.155 During 2006-07 (April-January), exports to UAE posted a growth of 44.2 per cent, thereby raising its share in total exports to 9.7 per cent. Indias exports to the US, China, Singapore and the EU decelerated, while those to Eastern Europe and Africa, showed a robust growth (Table 2.51). 2.156 During 2006-07 (April-January), imports of mainly exports related items, particularly, pearls, precious and semi-precious stones declined, while those of gold and silver, capital goods and POL maintained the growth momentum. Imports of capital goods posted a growth of 32.4 per cent during April-

Januar y 2006, reflecting the continued strong domestic industrial demand (Table 2.52). Balance of Payments Current Account 2.157 The sustained rise in invisibles surplus during the period April-December 2006 continued to moderate the impact of growing merchandise trade deficit (Table 2.53 and Chart II.20). Invisible receipts rose by 29.9 per cent during April-December 2006 mainly due to a significant steady growth in software

Table 2.52: Indias Principal Imports

April-March Commodity (US $ million) 2004-05 1 Petroleum, Petroleum Products & Related Material Edible Oil Non-Ferrous Metals Metalliferrous Ores & Metal Scrap Iron & Steel Capital Goods Pearls, Precious & Semi-Precious Stones Textile Yarn, Fabric, etc. Chemicals, Organic & Inorganic Gold & Silver Total Imports Source: DGCI&S. 2 29844 2465 1310 2468 2670 25135 9423 1571 5700 11150 111517 2005-06 3 43963 2024 1844 3882 4572 37666 9134 2051 6984 11318 143430 April-March Growth rate (Per cent) 2004-05 4 45.1 -3.0 38.1 90.5 77.3 37.5 32.2 24.9 41.4 62.6 42.7 2005-06 5 47.3 -17.9 40.8 57.3 71.3 49.9 -3.1 30.5 22.5 1.5 33.8 April-January (US $ million) 2005-06 6 35647 1627 1519 3126 3844 25900 8028 1748 5783 9189 117872 2006-07 7 47609 1798 2142 6815 5046 34299 5966 1815 6444 12344 148291 April-January Growth rate (Per cent) 2005-06 8 48.3 18.5 43.2 61.7 88.6 39.9 10.9 37.7 30.0 2.9 35.1 2006-07 9 33.6 10.5 41.0 118.0 31.3 32.4 -25.7 3.8 11.4 34.3 25.8

59

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 2.53: Indias Current Account

(US $ million) Item 2002-03 1 I. Merchandise Balance 2 -10,690 17,035 3,643 -29 -736 19 65 4,324 8,863 16,838 451 16,387 -3,446 -3,544 98 6,345 2003-04 3 -13,718 27,801 10,144 1,435 879 56 28 7,746 12,324 22,162 554 21,608 -4,505 -3,757 -748 14,083 P : Provisional. 2004-05 4 -33,702 31,232 15,426 1,417 144 148 -10 13,727 16,900 20,785 260 20,525 -4,979 -4,095 -884 -2,470 2005-06 PR 5 -51,841 42,655 23,881 1,389 -1,550 22 -197 24,217 22,262 24,284 182 24,102 -5,510 -4,921 -589 -9,186 April-December 2005 PR 6 -40,089 28,147 16,416 788 -1087 100 -107 16,722 15,597 16,937 63 16,874 -5,206 -4,741 -465 -11,942 2006 P 7 -52,302 40,481 25,064 981 -450 365 -97 24,265 20,143 18,943 115 18,828 -3,526 -3,100 -426 -11,821

II. Invisibles Balance (a+b+c) a) Services i) Travel ii) Transportation iii) Insurance iv) G.N.I.E. v) Miscellaneous of which: Software Services b) Transfers i) Official ii) Private c) Income i) Investment Income ii) Compensation of Employees Total Current Account

G.N.I.E : Government not included elsewhere.

PR : Partially Revised.

exports, other professional and business services, travel and transportation, besides remittances from overseas Indians. Net surplus under software services during April-December 2006 (US $ 20.1 billion) increased by 29.1 per cent over that during AprilDecember 2005. Business services during AprilDecember 2006 at US $ 4.0 billion (US $ 1.5 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year) were
Chart II.20: Movement of Invisibles Surplus

mainly driven by trade related services, business and management consultancy services, architectural, engineering and other technical ser vices, and services relating to maintenance of offices. These reflect the under lying momentum in trade of professional and technology related services. Private transfers (net), comprising primarily remittances from Indians working overseas, were higher at US $ 18.8 billion in April-December 2006 as compared with US $ 16.9 billion in April-December 2005. Investment income balance continued to record a deficit as payments associated with servicing of Indias external liabilities were in excess of earnings on Indias external assets. 2.158 On balance, the net surplus under invisibles (services, transfers and income taken together) increased from US $ 28.1 billion during AprilDecember 2005 to US $ 40.5 billion during AprilDecember 2006 (Chart II.21). Due to a higher net invisibles surplus, current account deficit at US $ 11.8 billion remained broadly the same as in the corresponding period of the previous year (US $ 11.9 billion).

US $ million

2000 Q1

2000 Q3

2001 Q1

2001 Q3

2002 Q1

2002 Q3

2003 Q1

2003 Q3

2004 Q1

2004 Q3

2005 Q1

2005 Q3

2006 Q1

2006 Q3

Capital Account 2.159 Capital inflows to India have remained large during 2006-07 (April-December). The capital inflows under FDI, external commercial borrowings, NRI 60

Services

Transfers

Income

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

Chart II.21: Current Account Balance

Table 2.55: Foreign Investment Flows by Category

(US $ million) Item April - February 2004-05 2005-06 P 2005-06 2006-07P 1 A. Direct Investment (I+II+III) 1. Equity (a+b+c+d+e) a. Government (SIA/FIPB) b. RBI c. NRI d. Acquisition of Shares* e. Equity capital of Unincorporated bodies # II. Re-invested earnings $ III. Other Capital $$ 2 6051 3778 1062 1258 930 528 1904 369 3 7722 5820 1126 2233 2181 280 1676 226 12492 2552 9926 14 20214 4 5948 4510 1030 1559 1711 210 1257 181 11527 2270 9243 14 17475 5 17142 15343 2096 6737 6149 361 1730 69 9409 3751 5658 26551

US $ billion

US $ billion

B. Portfolio Investment (a+b+c) 9315 a. GDRs/ADRs ## 613 b. FIIs** 8686 c. Offshore Funds and Others 16 C. Total (A+B) 15366

2000 Q1

2000 Q3

2001 Q1

2001 Q3

2002 Q1

2002 Q3

2003 Q1

2003 Q3

2004 Q1

2004 Q3

2005 Q1

2005 Q3

2006 Q1

Trade Balance

Invisibles Net

CAB (Right Scale)

2006 Q3

deposits and portfolio investment remained steady resulting in higher net capital inflows (US $ 27.3 billion) as compared with the previous year (Table 2.54). 2.160 Foreign investment inflows continued to be robust in 2006-07 (April-February). FDI inflows into India (including equity capital of unincorporated entities, reinvested earnings and inter-corporate debt transactions between the related entities) at US $ 17.1 billion during April-February were little less than three times of those during the corresponding period of the previous year (Table 2.55). The pick-up in FDI inflows reflects growing investor interest in the Indian Table 2.54: Capital Flows (Net)
(US $ billion) Item April-March 2004-05 1 Foreign Direct Investment Portfolio Investment External Assistance External Commercial Borrowings NRI Deposits Other Banking Capital Short Term Credits Other Capital Total P : Provisional. 2 3.7 9.3 1.9 5.2 -1.0 4.9 3.8 0.2 28.0 2005-06 PR 3 4.7 12.5 1.7 2.7 2.8 -1.4 1.7 -1.3 23.4 April-December 2005 PR 4 3.3 8.2 1.1 -1.2 1.1 0.7 1.7 -1.5 13.4 2006 P 5 5.8 5.2 0.9 9.1 3.2 -2.1 1.3 3.9 27.3

P : Provisional. * : Relates to acquisition of shares of Indian Companies by nonresidents under Section 6 of the FEMA, 1999. Data on such acquisitions have been included as part of FDI since January 1996. # : Figures for equity capital of unincorporated bodies for 2005-06 and 2006-07 are estimates. $ : Data for 2005-06 and 2006-07 are estimated as average of previous two years. $$ : Data pertain to inter-company debt transaction of FDI entities. ## : Represents the amount raised by Indian Corporates through Global Depository Receipts (GDRs) and American Depository Receipts (ADRs). ** : Represents inflow of funds (net) by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs).

PR : Partially Revised.

economy on the back of strong fundamentals as well as the impact of policy initiatives aimed at rationalising and liberalising the FDI policy and simplifying the procedures. During 2006, FDI up to 100 per cent through Reserve Banks automatic route was permitted for a large number of new sectors, viz., greenfield airport projects, laying of Natural Gas/ LNG pipelines, cash and carry wholesale trading, expor t trading and manufacture of industr ial explosives and hazardous chemicals. FDI caps under the automatic route were enhanced to 100 per cent for coal and lignite mining for captive consumption and setting up infrastructure relating to marketing in petroleum and natural gas sector. The Government has decided to allow FDI up to 51 per cent, with prior approval, in retail trade of single brand products and enhance the ceiling on FDI in the up-linking of TV channels, subject to certain conditions. FDI was channelled mainly into manufacturing, banking, financial, computer and business services and 61

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Chart II.22: Net Inflows/Outflows by Foreign Institutional Investors

Chart II.23: NRI Deposits Outstanding

US $ million

US $ million

August

September

February

April

June

November

December

January

October

March

July

May

construction. Mauritius, the US and United Kingdom remain the dominant sources of FDI into India. 2.161 Net inflows by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned negative during May-July 2006 against the backdrop of weakness in domestic equity markets in consonance with the trends in international markets. Between August 2006 and November 2006, however, FIIs made large purchases in the Indian stock markets (Chart II.22). During December 2006, FIIs flows again turned negative in the backdrop of volatility in Asian equity markets subsequent to the tightening of capital controls by Thailand. After witnessing inflows between mid-January 2007 and third week of February 2007, FII flows turned negative in the last week of February 2007 due to sharp fall in Asian equity markets on account of concerns of a slowdown in the US economy. 2.162 Net cumulative FII inflows during 2006-07 amounted to US $ 3.2 billion (US $ 9.9 billion during previous year). Number of FIIs registered with the SEBI increased to 996 at end-March 2007 (882 at endMarch 2006). Resources mobilised through issuance of ADRs/GDRs abroad during April-February 2006-07 remained higher than their levels during corresponding period of the previous year (Table 2.55). 2.163 Inflows under NRI deposits during AprilFebruary 2006-07 amounted to US $ 3.5 billion as compared with US $ 2.0 billion dur ing the corresponding period of previous year, partly reflecting the impact of higher interest rates (Table 2.56 and Chart II.23). The ceiling interest rate on NRE deposits 62

was raised by 25 basis points each in November 2005 and April 2006 to LIBOR/SWAP rates of US dollar plus 100 basis points. The ceiling interest rate on FCNR(B) deposits was also raised by 25 basis points to LIBOR/SWAP rates for the respective currency/ maturity in March 2006 from LIBOR/SWAP rates minus 25 basis points. Subsequently, in the Third Quar ter Review of Annual Policy for 2006-07 announced on January 31, 2007, the interest rate ceilings on NR(E)RA & FCNR(B) deposits were reduced by 50 basis points and 25 basis points, respectively. 2.164 FDI by Indian corporates abroad has assumed increasing significance in recent years. Indian investments overseas, investments in joint ventures (JV) and wholly owned subsidiaries (WOS) abroad have emerged as important avenues for promoting global business by Indian entrepreneurs, besides a source of increased exports of plants and machinery and goods from India. Joint ventures are perceived Table 2.56: Inflows under NRI Deposit Schemes
(US $ in Millions) Scheme April -March 2004-05 1 FCNR (B) NR (E) RA Total P: Provisional. 2 492 84 576 2005-06 3 1,612 1,177 2,789 April-February 2005-06 4 1,219 807 2,026 2006-07P 5 1,804 1,744 3,548

April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February

2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2006 2007 2007

FCNR (B)

NR(E)RA

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

as a medium of economic cooperation between India and other countries. Further, transfer of technology and skill, sharing of results of R&D, access to wider global markets, promotion of brand image, generation of employment and utilisation of raw materials available in India and in the host country are the significant benefits of such overseas investments. Overseas investments by Indian companies, initiated with the acquisition of foreign companies in the IT and related services sector, have now spread to other areas, particularly pharmaceuticals and petroleum. Indias direct investment abroad continued to show momentum in April-December 2006 as Indian companies continued their overseas acquisitions. Reflecting this, overseas investment undertaken by the Indian companies rose to US $ 8.7 billion in AprilDecember 2006 from US $ 1.9 billion in the corresponding period of last year. Foreign Exchange Reserves 2.165 Indias foreign exchange reserves comprising foreign currency assets, gold, Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) and Reserve Tranche Position (RTP) in the Fund reached US $ 199.18 billion as on March 30, 2007 (Chart II.24). During the first three quarters of 2006-07, net capital inflows more than financed the current account deficit. Overall, the foreign exchange reserves in 2006-07 increased by US $ 47.6 billion as compared with an increase of US $ 10.1 billion in 2005-06. Indias foreign exchange reserves increased further to US $ 204.0 billion as on May 18, 2007.
Chart II.24: Accretion to Foreign Exchange Reserves

Table 2.57: Components of External Debt

Item At the end-of March 06 December 06 Variation over the period

(Amount in US $ million) 1 1. 2. 3. 4. Multilateral Bilateral IMF Trade Credit a. Above 1 year b. Up to 1 year* 5. 6. 7. 8. Commercial Borrowings NRI Deposits (long- term) Rupee Debt Total Debt 2 32,559 (25.8) 15,727 (12.4) 0 5,398 (4.3) 8,696 (6.9) 26,869 (21.2) 35,134 (27.8) 2,031 (1.6) 1,26,414 (100.0) 1,17,718 (93.1) 8,696 (6.9) 3 34,569 (24.2) 15,770 (11.1) 0 5,957 (4.2) 10,015 (7.0) 35,980 (25.2) 38,382 (26.9) 1,983 (1.4) 1,42,656 (100.0) 1,32,641 (93.0) 10,015 (7.0)

(US $ million) 4 2,010 43 0 559 1,319 9,111 3,248 -48 16,242

(Per cent) 5 6.2 0.3 0.0 10.4 15.2 33.9 9.2 -2.3 12.8

Memo Items: A. Long-Term Debt B. Short-Term Debt

14,923 1,319

12.7 15.2

* : Suppliers credits of up to 180 days are not included. Note : Figures in parenthesis indicate percentage share in the total debt. Source : Reserve Bank of India and Ministry of Finance, GoI.

Indias External Debt 2.166 Indias total external debt at US $ 142.7 billion at the end of December 2006 recorded an increase of US $ 16.2 billion over the end-March 2006 level (Table 2.57). The rise in external debt outstanding at end-December 2006 was essentially brought about by a rise in external commercial borrowings, NRI deposits and shor t-ter m credit. Higher commercial borrowings and short-term credits could be attributed to increased investment and import demand, while the rise in NRI deposits was on account of upward revision in interest rates on these deposits. The US dollar continued to dominate the currency composition of Indias external debt at endDecember 2006 (Chart II.25). 2.167 External debt sustainability indicators have exhibited continued improvement. The proportion of short-term debt in total debt and the ratio of shortterm debt to foreign exchange reserves remained almost unchanged between end-March 2006 and endDecember 2006. The share of concessional debt in total external debt declined to 28.3 per cent at end63

US $ million

April

September

November

December

February

June

January

October

August

May

July

March

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Chart II.25: Currency Composition of External Debt End-December 2006

Euro 4.6% Japanese Yen 12.4%

Pound Sterling 2.9% Others 0.4%

Indian Rupee 19.3%

US Dollar 46.3%

SDR 14.1%

December 2006 from 31.2 per cent at end-March 2006, reflecting a gradual surge in non-concessional private debt in Indias external debt stock. Indias foreign exchange reserves exceeded the external debt by US $ 34.6 billion providing a cover of 124.3 per cent to the external debt stock at end-December 2006 (Table 2.58). Table 2.58: Debt Indicators
(in per cent)

January 2007, have firmed up again in recent months. The industr ial sector remained buoyant with industrial production growth rate accelerating to double digit. The manufacturing sector growth, which touched a ten-year high, continued to be the key driver of industrial activity. The strength of the industrial sector has been underpinned by strong domestic and expor t demand and comfor table financing conditions as was evident from the high credit growth and large resources raised by the corporates from the domestic and international capital markets. High growth in capital goods sector and large impor t of capital goods point to the strengthening of investment demand. Business confidence surveys conducted by the Reserve Bank and other agencies suggest an optimistic outlook in terms of overall economic conditions and investment climate. The services sector continued to be the main engine of the overall growth process. The lead indicators suggest continued robust prospects for growth in services. GDP growth for 2006-07, which was projected by the Reserve Bank in the range of 7.5-8.0 per cent in the Annual Policy Statement in April 2006, was placed at around 8.5 to 9.0 per cent in the Third Quarter Review in January 2007. The Advance Estimates by the CSO place the growth at 9.2 per cent for 2006-07. The Reserve Bank in its Annual Policy Statement for 2007-08 has placed the real GDP growth for 2007-08 at around 8.5 per cent. 2.169 All the key deficit indicators, viz., gross fiscal deficit, revenue deficit and primary deficit, as ratios to GDP, in the revised estimates of the Central Government for 2006-07 were placed lower than the budgeted targets. This was mainly on account of buoyant revenue receipts, both tax and non-tax, which more than offset the increased expenditures emerging particularly in respect of non-Plan components. The budget estimates for 2007-08 project a fur ther reduction in all the key deficit indicators based on continued improvement in tax revenues and containment of subsidies. The capital outlays, on the other hand, are budgeted to increase in 2007-08 as against a decline recorded in 2006-07. The Union Budget 2007-08 proposes to continue with the strategy of sound tax system, with moderate rates, broad tax base with fewer exemptions, and containment of non-developmental expenditure, while providing for adequate investment in social and physical infrastructure. 2.170 Inflation movements in 2006-07 were driven largely by primary food articles prices and some manufactured items. The impact of mineral oils, which 64

Indicators 1 Short-term/Total debt Short-term debt/Reserves Concessional debt/Total debt Reserves/Total debt

EndMarch 06 2 6.9 5.7 31.2 120.0

EndDecember 06 3 7.0 5.7 28.3 124.3

Source: Reserve Bank of India and Ministry of Finance, GoI.

VII. OVERALL ASSESSMENT 2.168 Developments during 2006-07 indicate that the Indian economy has been able to maintain the strong momentum witnessed in the recent past. Domestic and external developments, on the whole, remained conducive to growth. Notwithstanding uneven spatial distribution and initial deficiency, the overall performance of the South-West monsoon 2006 turned out to be close to normal. Oil prices, which eased significantly between August 2006 and

RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS

was the major driver of inflation over the past two years, petered out by early September 2006 on account of easing of oil prices and the base effect. The pass-through of higher international oil prices has been restricted to petrol and diesel. The CPI inflation has remained higher than WPI inflation mainly due to increase in food prices as well as the higher weight of food items in the CPI. Consistent with the objective of price stability, the Reserve Bank continued with its policy of active demand management of liquidity through judicious and flexible mix of instruments (OMOs, MSS and CRR) to anchor the inflationary expectations. Accordingly, it raised the repo rate by 50 basis points and the cash reserve ratio by 150 basis points in phases with effect from the fortnight beginning December 23, 2006. In the Annual Policy Statement for 2007-08, the Reserve Bank indicated that its policy endeavour would be to contain inflation close to 5.0 per cent in 2007-08. 2.171 Financial market conditions remained orderly during 2006-07, barring a few episodes of volatility. Short term money market rates remained generally within the corridor of reverse repo and repo rate till mid-December 2006. However, call rates shot up occasionally thereafter due to swings in liquidity conditions arising from large changes in government cash balances and volatile forex flows, as also shortage of collaterals faced by some participants, at a time when monetary policy was in tightening mode. Similarly, yields in the government securities market also hardened. The equity market turned volatile dur ing May-June 2006 due to selling pressure by FIIs in the wake of hardening of interest rates in international markets, concerns over rising domestic inflation and the ner vousness across international equity markets. However, stock markets have remained generally stable thereafter, barring some occasions in Februar y-March 2007 when equity mar kets tur ned volatile in line with international markets. 2.172 Operations of banks and other financial institutions continued to expand during 2005-06. This was accompanied by improvement in asset quality. Gross and net NPAs are now below 3 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively. 2.173 Indias balance of payments position remained comfortable. The sustained rise in invisibles surplus during April-December 2006 helped in financing the growing merchandise trade deficit. Travel earnings, business and professional services, software services and remittances, invisible receipts in particular, rose sharply. India continued to attract large capital inflows, 65

both portfolio and FDI. FIIs made large net investments, albeit somewhat lower than last year. Gross FDI inflows into India during 2006-07 (April-February) were little less than three times those in the previous year. The pick-up in FDI inflows reflects growing investor interest in the Indian economy on the back of strong fundamentals as well as the impact of policy initiatives aimed at rationalising and liberalising the FDI policy and simplifying the procedures. 2.174 Indias comfortable BOP position was also reflected in the foreign exchange reserves, which in the financial year 2006-07 increased by US $ 47.6 billion. The external debt sustainability indicators have improved further. 2.175 The global economy continued to expand at a robust pace in 2006, notwithstanding some moderation in the growth momentum in recent quarters. Growth prospects of the global economy, however, remain subject to certain downside risks. In addition to the uncertainties regarding the adjustment in the persisting global imbalances, other major risks include the underlying inflationary pressures on account of limited spare capacity, emerging wage pressures, notably in the US and possibility of rise in crude oil prices, weakness in the US housing market and concerns relating to overcomplacency of the financial markets about global risks. 2.176 Against this backdrop, barring the emergence of any adverse and unexpected developments in various sectors of the economy and keeping in view the current assessment of the economy, including the outlook for inflation, the Annual Policy Statement for 2007-08 observed that the step-up in the overall growth momentum in the economy during 2006-07 occurred in an environment of increasing strength and dynamism, backed by rising business and consumer confidence and increasing international interest. The growth momentum was driven by an increase in the investment rate, improvement in capital use in both the manufacturing and the services sectors and stronger linkages with the global economy. While structural changes are taking place in the economy, the upsurge of demand pressures may contain a cyclical component in the presence of upside pressures on aggregate demand, support from encouraging global GDP growth, steady increase in prices of manufactures, resurgence of pricing power among corporates, indications of wage pressures in some sectors, strained capacity utilisation and elevated asset prices. The optimism generated by robust macroeconomic performance needs to be assessed against the evolving

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

configuration of r isks in ter ms of substantial deceleration of agriculture, presence of supply constraints in agriculture and physical infrastructure gaps, the firming up of inflation due to supply constrains, emerging strains on capacity and elevated asset prices. The sustained momentum of growth in the industrial and ser vice sectors is somewhat clouded by supply pressures from deceleration in agriculture and large gaps in the physical infrastructure. There are indications that the pace of growth will continue to be supported by steady increases in the rate of gross domestic saving and some improvement in the efficiency of capital use while recognising that international trade cannot, by its nature, fully mitigate all supply side issues among all sectors. The initial effects of the expansion in demand would be reflected in inflationar y pressures and risks to macroeconomic and financial stability which have been in evidence in the form of sustained demand for capital goods and consumer durables, high rates of money and credit, indications of wage pressures in some sectors, rising input costs and the emergence of pricing power of the corporate sector. The overarching policy challenge is to manage the transition to a higher growth path while containing inflationary pressures.

2.177 The stance of monetary policy in 2007-08 would be conditioned by the patterns in which the global and, more par ticular ly, the domestic environment unfold. The likely evolution of macroeconomic and financial conditions indicate an environment supportive of sustaining the current growth momentum in India. It is important to reiterate that monetary policy, while contributing to growth, has to ensure and maintain price and financial stability. The policy preference for the period ahead is strongly in favour of reinforcing the emphasis on price stability and anchoring inflation expectations. Accordingly, the overall stance of monetary policy will continue to be: (i) to reinforce the emphasis on price stability and wellanchored inflation expectations while ensuring a monetary and interest rate environment that supports export and investment demand in the economy so as to enable continuation of the growth momentum; (ii) to re-emphasise credit quality and orderly conditions in financial markets for securing macroeconomic and, in particular, financial stability while simultaneously pursuing greater credit penetration and financial inclusion; (iii) to respond swiftly with all possible measures as appropriate to the evolving global and domestic situation impinging on inflation expectations and the growth momentum.

66

III

MONEY MARKET

3.1 The money market is a key component of the financial system as it is the fulcrum of monetary operations conducted by the central bank in its pursuit of monetary policy objectives. It is a market for shor t-term funds with maturity ranging from over night to one year and includes financial instruments that are deemed to be close substitutes of money. The money market performs three broad functions. One, it provides an equilibrating mechanism for demand and supply of short-term funds. Two, it enables borrowers and lenders of shortterm funds to fulfil their borrowing and investment requirements at an efficient market clearing price. Three, it provides an avenue for central bank intervention in influencing both quantum and cost of liquidity in the financial system, thereby transmitting monetary policy impulses to the real economy. The objective of monetary management by the central bank is to align money market rates with the key policy rate. As excessive money market volatility could deliver confusing signals about the stance of monetary policy, it is critical to ensure orderly market behaviour, from the point of view of both monetary and financial stability. Thus, efficient functioning of the money market is important for the effectiveness of monetary policy. 3.2 In order to meet these basic functions efficiently, money markets have evolved over time spawning new instruments and participants with varying risk profiles in line with the changes in the operating procedures of monetary policy. Changes in financial mar ket str uctures, macroeconomic objectives and economic environment have called for shifts in monetary regimes, which, in turn, have necessitated refinements both in the operating instruments and procedures, and in institutional arrangements by central banks. 3.3 Internationally, following the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, there was a shift from rule-based frameworks towards discretion in the use of monetary policy instruments, which ultimately led to the gradual abandonment of exchange rate targets. Changes in financial structures and financial innovations also rendered monetar y targeting ineffective by making the money demand functions unstable. Accordingly, since the early 1990s, there

has been a shift towards greater exchange rate flexibility and adoption of inflation targeting by some central banks partly because of increased capital mobility, greater financial market integration and repeated episodes of currency crises. Commensurate with these changes, central banks have moved away from conventional (direct) instruments of monetary control (working through the quantum channel) towards more use of indirect instruments (operating through the price channel). Accordingly, the use of reserve requirements and direct credit controls has been gradually de-emphasised, while relying more on interest rates for signalling the monetary policy stance. As central banks have only limited control over long-term interest rates, the most commonly adopted strategy has been to exert direct influence only on short-term interest rates and permitting market expectations to influence long-term interest rates through financial market inter-linkages. Thus, the choice of monetary policy instruments is guided by the structure of the money market. 3.4 In India, although the ultimate goals of monetary policy, viz., growth and price stability, have remained unchanged over the years, the Reserve Bank has modified its operational and intermediate objectives of monetar y policy several times in response to changes in the economic and financial environment. For instance, in the mid-1980s, the Reserve Bank formally adopted monetary targeting with feedback as a nominal anchor to fight inflation, partly induced by the large scale monetisation of fiscal deficits. The operating procedure in this regime was modulation of bank reserves by varying reserve requirements. In order to meet reserve requirements, banks borrowed primarily from the inter-bank (call money) market. Hence, these transactions were reflective of the overall liquidity in the system. Accordingly, the Reserve Bank focussed on the money market, in particular, the call money market by using various direct instruments of monetary control to signal the policy stance consistent with the overall objectives of achieving growth and price stability. As interest rates were regulated, monetary management was undertaken mainly through changes in the cash reserve ratio (CRR), which was used to influence indirectly the marginal cost of borrowing by having an initial impact on the call money market. As the

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

success of this strategy was crucially dependent on the stability of the call money market and its interlinkages with other money market segments, reforms since the late 1980s, along with changes in the reserve maintenance procedures, have aimed at developing various money market segments through introduction of new instr uments, increased participation and improved liquidity management in the system. 3.5 Financial sector reforms since the early 1990s have provided a strong impetus to the development of financial markets, which, along with interest rate deregulation, paved the way for introduction of mar ket-based monetar y policy instruments. With financial innovations, money demand was seen as less stable and the disequilibrium in money markets got reflected in short-term interest rates (Mohan, 2006). Accordingly, since the adoption of the multiple indicator approach in 1998, although monetary aggregates continue to be an important information variable, interest rates have emerged as the operational instrument of policy initially the Bank Rate and then the repo/reverse repo rates under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) from June 2000. This shift in emphasis from money to interest rates has been spurred by increased financial liberalisation, greater trade openness and capital flows, and innovations in payment and transactions technologies. Such a shift was gradual and a logical outcome of measures implemented in the reform period since the early 1990s (Reddy, 2002). An array of new money market instruments such as commercial paper, certificates of deposit and repos has been introduced in order to broaden the money market. Furthermore, with increased sophistication of financial markets, the risk profiles of financial mar ket par ticipants also changed, necessitating introduction of derivative instruments as effective risk management tools. 3.6 The liberalisation of capital controls resulting in increased integration of the Indian economy with the global economy, however, posed new challenges and dilemmas for monetar y and exchange rate management in the 1990s. These developments called for a greater emphasis on orderly conditions in financial markets for ensuring financial stability. In this phase, the focus of reforms was on introducing instruments of various maturities in different money market segments and imparting liquidity to these instruments by developing a secondary market, and 68

streamlining the money market operations. This resulted in greater control over the liquidity in the system and created an efficient mechanism to transmit interest rate signals. Thus, changes in the monetary policy operating procedures necessitated refinements in money market microstructure through introduction of new instruments and widening of par ticipation under a deregulated interest rate environment. 3.7 The need for developed and well-integrated money market also assumes critical importance as India progressively moves towards greater capital account convertibility, as envisaged by the Committee on Fuller Capital Account Convertibility (FCAC), which submitted its report to the Reserve Bank in July 2006. Better response to such financial flows by various market segments will depend upon the extent of integration as well as the development of necessary infrastructure. The greater integration of domestic and international markets also calls for flexible use of monetary policy instruments for modulating domestic liquidity conditions and correcting any serious misalignments between short-term and long-term interest rates. 3.8 Against the above backdrop, this chapter traces the evolution of monetary policy operating procedures in India as necessitated by the changes in the financial market structure, in particular, the money market, and the risks/challenges arising out of such market orientation of monetar y policy. Section I spells out the theoretical underpinnings of money mar ket for monetar y policy making. International experience on money market operating procedures, the evolving practices in liquidity management operations and the structure of money market are set out in Section II. Section III presents a brief review of the money market in India in the pre-reform period. Section IV deals with the changes in the Reser ve Banks liquidity management operations commensurate with the shifts in operating procedures. Developments in various segments of the money market since the mid-1980s are covered in Section V. It also discusses the Reserve Banks proactive role in mitigating various risks to the financial system. Section VI identifies the emerging issues in monetary and liquidity management in India and the need for addressing them in future for the smooth functioning of the money market and the efficient conduct of monetary policy. Section VII presents the concluding observations.

MONEY MARKET

I.

ROLE OF THE MONEY MARKET THEORETICAL UNDERPINNINGS

3.9 There is a general consensus among academics and central bankers that monetary policy is best geared to achieve price stability. In some countries, central banks have additional mandates such as ensuring full employment, maximising growth and promoting financial stability. In order to meet these objectives, central banks intervene in financial markets to ensure that short-term interest rates (and exchange rates) and liquidity are maintained at appropriate levels, consistent with the objectives of monetary policy. Thus, monetary policy and financial markets are linked intrinsically. It is through the financial markets that monetary policy affects the real economy. Hence, financial markets are the connecting link in the transmission mechanism between monetary policy and the real economy. 3.10 The relationship between monetary policy and financial markets is of mutual inter-dependence. Central banks conduct monetary policy by directly and indirectly influencing financial market prices. Financial market prices reflect the expectations of market participants about future economic developments. These expectations, in tur n, provide valuable information to central banks in setting the optimal course of monetary policy in the future. 3.11 Monetary policy affects financial markets through various financial price and quantity channels. The transmission process from monetary policy to financial markets and finally to the real economy is typically triggered through the use of monetary policy instruments (reserve requirements, open market operations, policy rates and refinance facilities) for controlling the operating targets (like reserve money and bank reserves) consistent with intermediate targets such as money supply, which enables attainment of final objectives of economic growth and pr ice stability. Typically, the monetar y policy instrument is a financial market price, which is directly set or closely controlled by the central bank. For most central banks with floating exchange rates, the monetar y policy instrument is a shor t-term interest rate. Changes in the short-term policy rate provide signals to financial markets, whereby various segments of the financial system respond by adjusting their rates of return on various instruments, depending on their sensitivity and the efficacy of the transmission mechanism. Under fixed exchange rate regimes, a particular exchange rate serves as the instrument. Similarly, under the monetary targeting regime, the operating target is the quantity of central 69

bank money in the banking system, which is determined by the supply of bank reserves. If all factors having an impact on output and inflation were completely known in advance, it would make no difference whether the central bank conducts policy by fixing the supply of reserves or by setting an interest rate (Friedman, 2000b). In fact, these alternative operating strategies would be similar in impact. However, since many factors that impact the central banks policy priorities are unpredictable, the choice of the operating instrument matters for the effectiveness of monetary policy. 3.12 The theoretical justification for the conduct of monetary policy through interest rates is derived from the appropriate choice of instrument problem (Poole, 1970). It was demonstrated that if aggregate demand shocks in the economy originate from the goods market (the IS curve), then the optimum policy is to target monetary aggregates for minimising output fluctuations. On the other hand, if demand shocks originate in the money market (the LM curve), from the perspective of monetary policy, targeting interest rates is the appropriate approach. The implication being that as financial mar kets develop with increasing financial innovations, the demand for money becomes unstable, rendering monetar y targeting redundant. In other words, with the gradual financial sophistication of the economy, the speculative demand for money dominates the transaction motive. Hence, most developed countries operate through an interest rate target. 3.13 The interest rate channel is the primary mechanism of monetar y policy transmission in conventional macroeconomic models where an increase in nominal interest rates, given some degree of price stickiness, translates into an increase in the real rate of interest and the user cost of capital (Exhibit III.1) . These changes, in turn, lead to a postponement in consumption or a reduction in investment spending thereby affecting the working of the real sector, viz., changing aggregate demand and supply, and eventually growth and inflation in the economy (Kuttner and Mosser, 2002). This is the mechanism embodied in conventional specifications of the IS curve, both of the Old Keynesian variety (Samuelson and Solow, 1960) and the New Keynesian models developed during the 1990s (Rotemberg and Woodford, 1997; Clarida, Gali, and Gertler, 1999). However, the macroeconomic response to policyinduced interest rate changes is considerably larger than that implied by conventional estimates of the interest elasticities of consumption and investment

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Exhibit III.1: Monetary Policy Transmission through Interest Rate Channel Monetary Policy Operations (OMO, Reserve Requirements, Refinance)

Change in Reserves Short-term Interest Rate Monetary Base

Money Supply Market Interest Rate

Real Interest Rate Interest Rate Channel Aggregate Demand

Source: Adapted from Kuttner and Mosser (2002).

(Bernanke and Gertler, 1995). This suggests that mechanisms, other than the interest rate channel, may also be at work in the transmission of monetary policy1 . 3.14 Interest rates can influence the monetary policymaking process in three distinct ways (Friedman, 2000a). The first role of interest rates is as an instrument variable that the central bank sets in order to implement its chosen policy. A second potential role for interest rates in the monetary policy process is again as an instrument variable, but as an instrument that the central bank varies not for influencing output and inflation directly but rather for targeting the money stock. Finally, most central banks use short-term interest rate as their monetary policy instrument variable based on long-term interest rate movements, which are taken as more of an infor mation var iable about potential future developments. Implicit in this framework, however, is a regular term structure of interest rates whereby policy initiatives at the short end are transmitted efficiently to the longer end of the maturity spectrum. This relationship fares better under the assumption of adaptive expectations (Chow, 1989), while recent empirical evidence suggests that long-term rates are poor (and biased) predictors of future short-term rates, particularly when expectations are rational (Blinder, 2006).
1

3.15 Short-term interest rates alone have only limited direct effects on the economy. Long-term interest rates have a stronger impact as they determine savings and investment decisions in the economy. In order to impact the economy, monetary policy impulses must, therefore, be transmitted from the money market to the capital market by influencing asset prices such as loan rates, bond rates, exchange rates and stock market valuations. The money market and the capital market are linked by expectations. Neglecting transaction costs and risk premiums, the expectations theory of the term structure views the long-term interest rate as an average of the shortterm interest rates expected to prevail till the maturity of the respective instrument. Although current shortterm interest rates have some effect on longer-term bond yields, the expectations theory of the term structure indicates that it is primarily expected future short-term interest rates which determine bond yields. In practice, owing to uncertainty about the future evolution of short-term interest rates and the timevarying risk premiums, the longer the maturity, the weaker the link between current short-term rates and long-term rates. Therefore, in practice, central banks sometimes find it difficult to guide longer-term interest rates to a level commensurate with what they consider to be the optimal monetary policy stance.

The changes in the policy rate, by inducing international interest rate differentials, also have a bearing on exchange rate movements through the uncovered interest rate parity condition.

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3.16 Central banks, never theless, operate on short-term policy rates, which under a regular termstructure and a smooth market continuum would be able to influence long-term interest rates. In order to efficiently transmit monetary policy signals to longterm rates, central banks foster development of the money market. The money market, thus, serves as the corner-stone of a competitive and efficient system of market-based intervention by the central bank. It stimulates an active secondary bond market by reducing the liquidity risk of bonds and other shortterm financial instruments and assists financial intermediaries in managing their liquidity risk. It also ser ves as the medium for Gover nment cash management and provides the first link in the implementation of monetary policy. There are three conditions which are required to be fulfilled for developing a well-functioning money market. These are: (i) banks and other financial institutions must be commercially motivated to respond to incentives, actively manage risk and maximise profit; (ii) the central bank must shift from direct to indirect methods of implementing monetar y policy; and (iii) the Government must have a good mechanism of cash management, thereby giving the central bank greater freedom in setting its operating procedures. 3.17 The central banks operating procedures greatly influence the stability of the money market as well as banks incentives to actively use the money market to manage risk. In this regard, operating procedures need to be designed appropriately to promote market liquidity, stability and encourage active risk management. The operating procedures that particularly influence banks risk management incentives are the reserve maintenance period, the definition of liabilities on which reserves are levied, accommodation policy and the accuracy of operations designed to affect market liquidity - that is, the accuracy with which the central bank can control the demand for excess reserves in the system. 3.18 Development of liquidity in the inter-bank market - the market for short-term lending/borrowing amongst banks - provides the basis for growth and increased liquidity in the broader money market, including secondary market for Treasury Bills and private sector money market instruments. While the central banks liquidity management operations encompass discretionary injections or withdrawals of primary money from the financial system at its own initiative, its accommodation policy comprises operations to meet the demand for liquidity from market participants. Market liquidity management 71

refers to actions taken by the central bank to manage the overall level of high-powered money and, through this, to regulate money market conditions (Box III.1). The regulation of money market conditions focusses on offsetting the demand for excess reserves in order to avoid large fluctuations in bank reserves causing volatility in short-term interest rates. Successful market liquidity management requires that the daily level of excess reserves in the banking system be close to the level demanded by banks. 3.19 Theoretically, the speed of transmission of policy signals to financial asset prices improves with derivatives trading as it enables risk sharing across the market as well as reflects the inter-temporal adjustments of financial asset prices to monetary policy signals. A financial derivative contract derives the future price for the underlying asset on the basis of its current price and interest rates. Accordingly, the efficient pricing of derivatives is contingent upon an active and liquid market for the underlying asset. As the informational content of the market is reflected in prices of derivatives, there is a case for using derivatives as monetary policy instruments. It is, however, noted that central banks do not use derivative instruments actively for monetary policy purposes as they are normally considered to be risky and uncertain. Furthermore, the impact of derivatives trading on the real economy remains ambiguous (Gray and Place, 2001). Der ivatives, however, are increasingly becoming a useful tool for r isk management in financial markets. 3.20 To sum up, the interest rate channel has emerged as a key channel of monetar y policy transmission mechanism. Although the central bank can directly influence mainly shor t-ter m rates, effective transmission of policy signals requires a proper term structure of interest rates, which is dependent on market par ticipants expectations about the future movements in policy rates. A wellfunctioning money market is, therefore, essential for conducting indirect, market-based monetary policy operations and for providing the liquidity necessary for the market in government securities and private sector bonds. By careful management of liquidity conditions, the central bank can realise its monetary policy objectives and encourage money market transactions while ensuring stable market conditions. A vital element for conducting effective monetary policy is knowledge of Government cash flows, which, like central banks open market operations, also affect banks reserve balances.

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Box III.1 Role of the Money Market in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism
The money market forms the first and foremost link in the transmission of monetary policy impulses to the real economy. Policy interventions by the central bank along with its market operations influence the decisions of households and fir ms through the monetar y policy transmission mechanism. The key to this mechanism is the total claim of the economy on the central bank, commonly known as the monetary base or high-powered money in the economy. Among the constituents of the monetary base, the most important constituent is bank reserves, i.e., the claims that banks hold in the form of deposits with the central bank. The banks need for these reserves depends on the overall level of economic activity. This is governed by several factors: (i) banks hold such reserves in proportion to the volume of deposits in many countries, known as reserve requirements, which influence their ability to extend credit and create deposits, thereby limiting the volume of transactions to be handled by the bank; (ii) banks ability to make loans (asset of the bank) depends on its ability to mobilise deposits (liability of the bank) as total assets and liabilities of the bank need to match and expand/contract together; and (iii) banks need to hold balances at the central bank for settlement of claims within the banking system as these transactions are settled through the accounts of banks maintained with the central bank. Therefore, the daily functioning of a modern economy and its financial system creates a demand for central bank reserves which increases along with an expansion in overall economic activity (Friedman, 2000b). The central banks power to conduct monetary policy stems from its role as a monopolist, as the sole supplier of bank reserves, in the market for bank reserves. The most common procedure by which central banks influence the outstanding supply of bank reserves is through open mar ket operations that is, by buying or selling government securities in the market. When a central bank buys (sells) securities, it credits (debits) the reserve account of the seller (buyer) bank. This increases (decreases) the total volume of reserves that the banking system collectively holds. Expansion (contraction) of the total volume of reserves in this way matters because banks can exchange reserves for other remunerative assets. Since reserves earn low interest, and in many countries remain unremunerated, banks typically would exchange them for some interest bearing asset such as Treasury Bill or other short-term debt instruments. If the banking system has excess (inadequate) reserves, banks would seek to buy (sell) such instruments. If there is a general increase (decrease) in demand for securities, it would result in increase (decline) in security prices and decline (increase) in interest rates. The resulting lower (higher) interest rates on short-term debt instruments mean a reduced (enhanced) opportunity cost of holding low interest reserves. Only when market interest rates fall (rise) to the level at which banks collectively are willing to hold all of the reserves that the central bank has supplied will the financial system reach equilibrium. Hence, an expansionary (contractionary) open market operation creates downward (upward) pressure on short-term interest rates not only because the central bank itself is a buyer (seller), but also because it leads banks to buy (sell) securities. In this way, the central bank can easily influence interest rates on short-term debt instruments. In the presence of a regular term structure of interest rates and without market segmentation, such policy impulses get transmitted to the longer end of the maturity spectrum, thereby influencing long-term interest rates, which have a bearing on households consumption and savings decisions and hence on aggregate demand. There are alternative mechanisms of achieving the same objective through the imposition of reserve requirements and central bank lending to banks in the form of refinance facilities. Lowering (increasing) the reserve requirement, and, therefore, reducing (increasing) the demand for reserves has roughly the same impact as an expansionary (contractionary) open market operation, which increases (decreases) the supply of reserves creating downward (upward) pressure on interest rates. Similarly, another way in which central banks can influence the supply of reserves is through direct lending of reserves to banks. Central banks lend funds to banks at a policy rate, which usually acts as the ceiling in the short-term market. Similarly, central banks absorb liquidity at a rate which acts as the floor for short-term market interest rates. This is important, since injecting liquidity at the ceiling rate would ensure that banks do not have access to these funds for arbitrage opportunities whereby they borrow from the central bank and deploy these funds in the market to earn higher interest rates. Similarly, liquidity absorption by the central bank has to be at the floor rate since deployment of funds with the central bank is free of credit and other risks. Typically, the objective of the central bank is to modulate liquidity conditions by pegging short-term interest rates within this corridor. While the above mechanism outlines how central banks can influence short-term interest rates by adjusting the quantity of bank reserves, the same objective can be achieved by picking on a particular short-term interest rate and then adjusting the supply of reserves commensurate with that rate. In many countries, this is achieved by targeting the overnight inter-bank lending rate and adjusting the level of reserves which would keep the interbank lending rate at the desired level. Thus, by influencing short-term interest rates, central banks can influence output and inflation in the economy, the ultimate objectives of monetary policy.

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II.

OPERATING PROCEDURES AND MONEY MARKET - INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE

3.21 The objectives, targets and operating procedures of monetary policy worldwide have witnessed considerable shifts in tune with the evolution of monetary theory, central banking regimes and the changing macroeconomic conditions over time. By the 1970s, most central banks came to accept price stability as a key objective of monetary policy a departure from the earlier prominence given to growth and employment objectives. In recent years, beyond the traditional growth-inflation trade-off, financial stability has emerged as another key objective in the wake of growing financial market integration and associated uncertainty and volatility arising out of contagion. Although a number of central banks in developed countries such as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England have adopted price stability as their sole objective by adopting an inflation targeting framework, several other countries, viz., the US and Japan continue to pursue dual objectives of price stability and growth. Similarly, while some emerging market economies (EMEs) such as South Africa, Thailand, Korea and Mexico have emphasised solely price stability by adopting an inflation targeting framework, some others tend to follow multiple objectives. Monetary Policy Frameworks Intermediate Targets 3.22 As central banks could not always directly target the ultimate objective, monetary policy focussed on intermediate targets that bear close relationship with the final objective. The selection of intermediate targets is conditional on the channels of monetary policy transmission that operate in the economy. The process of rapid disintermediation sparked off by a spate of financial innovations during the 1980s began to impact the monetary targeting framework (Solans, 2003). Accordingly, with money demand becoming unstable, central banks began to modulate aggregate demand by targeting interest rates. As a result, central 2 banks in the US (1992) and Japan (1994-2001) , among others, adopted inter-bank rates as intermediate targets. Financial liberalisation, however, has reduced the importance of explicit intermediate

targets in several countries, thereby prompting many central banks to adopt a multiple indicator approach. Under this approach, many central banks such as the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan regularly monitor a number of macroeconomic indicators such as prices, output gaps, and developments in asset, credit and other financial markets, which have a bearing on price stability. 3.23 Some EMEs such as Russia and China continue to specify intermediate targets in the form of monetary aggregates. Some other countries such as Indonesia, however, use indicative monetary targets more as an important information variable, supplementing it with other indicators of developments in financial mar kets and the real economy. Furthermore, along with the adoption of inflation targeting by many EME central banks, there has been an increasing focus on the interest rate channel of the monetary transmission process. Operating Targets 3.24 The process of monetar y policy implementation is guided mainly by the choice of operating targets. Notwithstanding the policy objectives, the critical issue facing the monetary authorities is to strike a balance in the short-run between instruments and targets. In recent years, a certain degree of consensus has emerged both in the industrialised countries and EMEs to use marketoriented instruments, driven mainly by the rapid development and deepening of various financial market segments, the diversification of financial institutions and the globalisation of financial intermediation (Vant dack,1999). 3.25 With the gradual development and sophistication of money markets in a deregulated regime, there has been a shift from Keynesian growthand full-employment-or iented monetar y policy operating on monetary aggregates to an inflationoriented monetary policy operating on interest rates. With the growing sophistication of markets, the traditional dirigiste, direct control approach to monetary policy has become obsolete, while indirect mar ket oriented approach has gained greater acceptance (Forssbaeck and Oxelheim, 2003).

The Bank of Japan shifted to quantitative easing policy since March 2001 but again decided on March 9, 2006 to change the operating target from the outstanding balances of current accounts at the Bank to the uncollateralised overnight call rate.

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3.26 Among the two operating procedures, viz., through bank reserves and interest rates, the focus has increasingly shifted towards the latter since the early 1990s due to the broader changes that took place in the economic environment (Borio, 1997). The trend reflects the growing role played by interest rates in the transmission mechanism as markets develop in a deregulated environment. The sharper focus on interest rates as the operating target has gone hand in hand with a tendency to move towards targeting short-term interest rates. As a corollary, the overnight rate has emerged as the most commonly pursued operating target in the conduct of monetary policy. Hence, the focus has been concentrated on money markets for transmitting monetary policy signals. The targeting of short-term interest rates is fully consistent with a market oriented approach whereby information about the expectations of future movements in interest rates is extracted from the prevailing market rates. 3.27 Although countries differ in terms of the choice of instruments, they could be broadly classified on the basis of their key operating targets (interest rates) (Annex III.1). In the first category are countries such as the US, Japan, Canada and Australia, where the key operating target is the overnight inter-bank rate although the signalling strategies differ. In the case of other developed countries such as the ECB, the key policy rate is the tender rate that is applicable to regular operations, mainly, the refinancing operations. Some central banks, however, in countries such as the UK, select overnight market interest rates as their operating target consistent with the official Bank Rate decided by the MPC. In general, the maturity of such interest rates varies from 1 to 2 weeks but could range between 1 or 2 days to 1-month. 3.28 The operating target in the case of several EMEs also is the overnight rate - determined in the inter-bank market for settlement balances (Korea and Malaysia) (Annex III.2). In order to promote financial stability, central banks, being the monopolistic suppliers of primary liquidity, have endeavoured to smoothen the movements in the overnight rate with a high degree of precision through calibrated modulation of bank reserves. Central banks have generally refrained from strict control of interest rates as it deters the development of money markets. Allowing the volatility in the overnight rate to absorb temporary pressure could enable central banks to preserve stability in other money market segments. 3.29 Central banks have used several techniques in order to contain the interest rate volatility - the averaging of reser ve requirements and use of 74

standing facilities to define an interest rate corridor. Most of these countries steer the overnight rates within a corridor - lower bound (floor) set by the deposit facility and upper bound (ceiling) represented by the lending facility. These corridors are normally considerably wide, allowing for the significant flexibility in the movement of both policy and overnight rates (Borio, op.cit). With regard to the frequency of interest rate adjustments, most central banks prefer a policy of small and gradual changes. Operating Procedures 3.30 The operating procedures of liquidity management have also changed in response to the changes in the policy environment amidst financial liberalisation. The literature and the central banks own accounts attribute five main reasons for reform in their operating procedures in the industrial countries during the 1980s and the 1990s (Mehran et al., 1996 and Forssbaeck and Oxelheim, op cit). First, monetary policy instruments were changed to adapt to the new operational frameworks of the respective monetary author ities. Second, with financial deepening occurring more or less entirely outside the central banks balance sheets, the share of the financial system over which monetary authorities had direct control was reduced, warranting indirect (priceoriented as opposed to quantity-oriented instruments) ways to control the non-monetary components of liquidity in the financial system. Third, in the wake of expansion, diversification and integration of financial markets all over the world, greater interest rate flexibility and narrowing of differentials between rates of return in different currencies warranted instruments that can impart flexibility to liquidity management in terms of the timing, magnitude and accuracy. Fourth, the growing importance of expectations in financial markets favoured the adoption of instruments that are better suited for signalling the stance of monetary policy. Finally, there was a growing urge on the part of central banks to stimulate money market activity and improve monetary policy transmission while emphasising the separation of monetar y and Government debt management objectives. 3.31 As a result of the changes in the policy environment, the following trends could be observed at the international level, particularly during the 1990s (Borio, op.cit and Vant dack, op.cit). First, there has been a continuous reduction in reserve requirements. The marked international trend towards reduction in reserve requirements over the last decade reflects the conscious policy effort to reduce the tax on

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intermediation with a view to reducing the burden of institutions and generate a level playing field, both between different types of domestic institutions and increasingly those across national borders. Although the fluctuations in liquidity levels engendered by autonomous factors could be modulated through the buffer stock property of reserve requirements and through active liquidity management by means of discretionary operations3, internationally, the general downward trend in reserve ratios has been shifting the balance towards liquidity activism. This has also been made possible by the increase in excess maintenance of reserves whereby banks circumvent the impact of changes in reserve requirements. 3.32 Central banks in EMEs tend to use reserve requirements to offset autonomous influences on bank liquidity more frequently than in developed countries. While reserve requirements play a different role in EMEs than in developed countries, there has been a convergence towards lower levels while deemphasising their role as active instruments of monetary control. Thus, in recent years, reserve requirements have been giving way to a more market oriented approach of impounding liquidity, including through the issue of central bank paper. 3.33 Second, there has been a growing emphasis on active liquidity management driven partly by the pressures of increasingly mobile international capital and decline in reserve requirements. With a view to developing money markets by reducing the reliance on accommodation from the central bank and in order to impart greater flexibility in interest rate adjustments, liquidity management has largely been implemented through discretionary operations at the expense of standing facilities, particularly since the early 1980s. As a corollary, central banks have widened the range of instruments used in their market operations, shortened the maturity of transactions, increased their frequency and complemented regular basic refinancing operations with other fine-tuning operations. 3.34 The reliance on market operations rather than standing facilities for balancing the market for bank reserves was also necessitated by the need to develop more flexible and less intrusive implementation procedures. Hence, the main instruments for liquidity management by central banks are discretionary market operations. Conversely, standing facilities have
3 4

become safety valves rather than the key mechanisms for setting the interest rate. They are operated at the margin in order to bridge temporary mismatches in liquidity. In the case of EMEs also, there has been a movement away from standing facilities. With the development and integration of new financial markets, bank intermediation became less dominant as households parked a part of their savings outside the banking sector. As a result, enterprises increasingly started tapping non-bank sources of funding. Consequently, aggregate spending became sensitive to more than just bank-determined interest rates as policy induced changes in interest rates also influenced demand through the wealth effect of asset prices. Accordingly, the asset channel of monetary transmission, which focusses on developing new instruments and procedures for influencing financial market expectations and behaviour, has gained added importance. 3.35 Third, among the wide array of monetary policy instruments, repos have almost become the main policy tool, which could be considered a major milestone in the development of money markets. Countries (including EMEs) have preferred repos more than the outright open market operations because they do not require an underlying market for securities and they tend to break the link between the maturity of the paper and that of the transaction. The emergence and subsequent rapid growth of pr ivate repo mar kets in recent years, often encouraged by the central banks themselves, have spurred the usage of these instruments. 3.36 Most EMEs have assigned repos a major role in the day-to-day management of bank reserves. An active market for repos and reverse repos has been developed in Korea, Mexico and Thailand. The underlying eligible assets are mainly government fixed income securities. In the case of thin markets, central banks have responded by widening the range of eligible securities. The central banks of the US, the ECB, the UK, Singapore and Mexico also conduct repo operations involving cor porate bonds as collaterals. 3.37 Besides the rapid growth of domestic repo markets in recent years, repurchase transactions are now easily carried out across national borders also. This has been facilitated by the Inter national 4 Securities Market Association (ISMA) , which plays

Discretionary operations include purchase/ sale of securities or more often reverse transactions in domestic or foreign currency. Since July 2005, ISMA merged with Primary Market Association to become the International Capital Market Association.

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an important role by establishing uniform trading procedures in the international bond markets. This has helped large banks/other financial institutions to cover short-term liquidity mismatches. Accordingly, the international financial system has experienced an increase in global integration. It is widely believed that the growth of the collateralised repo market has played an important role in enhancing the overall stability of the financial system by removing counterparty risks through funded credit protection against risky transactions in unsecured wholesale financial markets (Joshi, 2005). 3.38 Four th, greater flexibility in liquidity management has been accompanied by a greater transparency in the policy signals relating to desired interest rate levels, driven by the broader changes in the economic and political environment, including the decline in inflation to relatively low levels, growing emphasis on inflation targeting, greater autonomy and accountability of central banks and growing influence of market forces and expectations in the formation of interest rates. The main structural factors shaping policy implementation are also induced by the changes in payment and settlement systems, particularly, the broad-based introduction of real time gross settlement system. Central Bank Operations 3.39 With regard to market operations, most central banks conduct at least one transaction at a regular interval in order to meet the basic liquidity needs of the system. The other complementary operations that take place are calibrated responses to day-to-day mar ket conditions, fine-tuning operations providing liquidity over longer horizons (the US and Japan) and mopping up of excess liquidity with a view to inducing ex ante liquidity shortage (the UK). The maturity of these operations is usually relatively short for key operations, shorter for day-today calibration and longer for other operations. 3.40 In some countries, outright transactions also play a role. For instance, in the US, periodic purchases and sales of government securities are used as permanent additions/withdrawals of reserves. In Japan, the central bank regular ly purchases government bonds to supply the base money. In the case of EMEs, outright transactions in the secondary markets remain important instruments, particularly to offset structural liquidity surpluses/shortages. In recent years, however, there has been an increasing trend towards allowing greater leeway to market forces in determining the interest rates. Hence, there is 76

reluctance to conduct outright transactions in the government securities market. 3.41 Although country practices vary, the operating procedures of monetary policy of most central banks are beginning to converge to one of the variants of the three-closely related paradigms. The first set of central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, estimate the demand for bank reserves and then carry out open market operations to target short-term interest rates, especially if their financial markets are deep enough to transmit changes at the short end to the longer end of the term structure. A second set of central banks such as in Russia and Mexico estimate market liquidity and carry out open market operations to target bank reserves, while allowing interest rates to adjust, especially if their credit channels are strong. In the third category, a growing number of central banks including the European Central Bank (ECB) and a large number of inflation targeters modulate monetary conditions in terms of both the quantum and price of liquidity through a mix of open market operations (OMOs), standing facilities and minimum reserve requirements and changes in the policy rate but do not announce pre-set money or interest rate targets. 3.42 These developments together with the growing integration of markets have warranted accurate forecasts of liquidity, par ticularly the autonomous supply of bank reserves and its demand by the banking system. The operations of central banks have become critically contingent on these forecasts. The features of the forecasting process vary significantly across the countries, reflecting their operating frameworks of monetary policy. Several EMEs also conduct forecasts on a regular basis with planning horizons ranging from one day to several months. 3.43 Regarding the number of instruments, country practices differ widely. Central banks in countries such as Canada conduct one or two type of operations at the most, which are sufficient for liquidity management, whereas central banks in Japan and the UK rely on a broad range of operations. The range of underlying securities traded and collateral accepted is broad in Japan and several European countries, including various types of public and private claims. Conversely, in the US, New Zealand and Australia, central banks operate on the basis of public sector assets. 3.44 The choice of counter par ties var ies substantially across the countries. For instance, in

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the US, the Fed deals only with a restricted group of primary dealers. In the UK, each market operation and standing facility has a specific set of counterparties. There is a wide range of counterparties in different countries. For instance, only banks act as counterparties in Mexico, while in Korea apart from banks, merchant banks, investment/trust companies and securities companies also act as counterparties. While level playing field considerations may favour many counterparties, efficiency considerations may call for a system of primary dealers. If the domestic securities markets are not deep, central banks engage in foreign exchange swaps for liquidity management purposes (South Africa and Thailand). 3.45 Most central banks, thus, prefer open market operations (OMO) as a tool of monetary policy, which allow them to adjust market liquidity and influence the interest rate structure across tenors through an auction mechanism in which market participants are able to bid their preferences. The particular form of operations such as outright transactions in eligible securities, repos and sometimes standing deposit/ lending facility, often depend on the specific macroeconomic conditions and the existing legal framework of the country. Governments Surplus Cash Balances 3.46 Governments large surplus cash balances held with the central bank can have a significant impact on liquidity in the banking system (and thereby could have a bearing on short-term interest rates) necessitating active management of such surplus balances. Accordingly, arrangements which facilitate transfer of surplus funds from Governments account to deficit participants in the system could help in better management of liquidity. Such arrangements not only enable the Governments to earn better returns on the cash balances, but also mitigate volatility in short-term interest rates and keep overnight money market rates stable. The cross-country practices on such arrangements vary widely. For instance, while the cash balances of the Central Government are auctioned (competitively) on a daily basis in Canada, all government balances are maintained with their respective central banks in Japan and Italy. In the US and France, a significant working balance is maintained with their central banks while amounts beyond the targeted balance are invested in the market. Such surplus balances have also been effectively used as an instrument of sterilisation by many central banks. The Government of Singapore, for instance, issues government 77

securities in excess of the fiscal requirements and parks the surplus funds with the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) as deposits, thus, supplementing its draining operations. Countries such as Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia have modulated excess liquidity in the financial system by diverting government/ public sector deposits from the commercial banking system to the central bank. 3.47 To sum up, some lessons emerge from the international experience on liquidity management of both developed and emerging market economies. First, with the deepening of financial markets and the growth of non-bank intermediaries, central banks need to increase the market orientation of their instruments. A large proportion of reserves is supplied through open market operations with standing facilities being limited to providing marginal accommodation or emergency finance. Furthermore, high reserve requirements tend to inhibit inter-bank activity. Similarly, easy and cheap access to central bank standing facilities impedes proactive liquidity management by banks. 3.48 Second, in view of growing complexities of monetary management, monetary policy formulation has been guided by a number of macroeconomic indicators rather than a single intermediate nominal anchor. 3.49 Third, the growing impor tance and the flexibility of financial market price and its transmission mechanism in a deregulated environment necessitated central banks to focus increasingly on interest rates rather than bank reserves in liquidity management. Central banks need to ensure smooth trend in interest rates for several reasons. For instance, volatile interest rates can obscure policy signals, while more orderly market conditions promote a rapid and predictable transmission of monetary policy impulses. Less volatile interest rates may also help financial institutions to better assess and manage their market risks. Market participants benefit from stable rates through stabilisation of expectations, which, in turn, promote the development of a term structure in the money market. 3.50 Fourth, with reduced market segmentation and the greater ease and speed with which interest rate changes are transmitted across the entire term structure, central banks need to focus on the very short end of the yield curve, where their actions tend to have the maximum impact. 3.51 Fifth, the greater market orientation of the central banks policy instruments has been associated

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with a preference for flexible instruments. In volatile financial conditions, most notably in the EMEs, the flexibility in the design of policy instruments has emerged as a key consideration. 3.52 Finally, the growing awareness of the importance of market psychology and expectations has warranted greater transparency in the conduct of monetar y policy with special emphasis on communication policy for conveying the stance and rationale of policy decisions. Structure of the Money Market Instruments 3.53 In view of the rapid changes on account of financial deregulation and global financial markets integration, central banks in several countries have striven to develop and deepen the money markets by enlarging the ambit of instruments5 and participants so as to improve the transmission channels of monetary policy. The structure of money markets determines the type of instruments that are feasible for the conduct of monetary management. Evidence and experience indicate that preference for marketoriented instruments by the monetary authorities helps to promote broader market development (Forssbaeck and Oxelheim, op cit). 3.54 The diminishing role of quantitative controls and search for alternatives gave rise to three major mar ket-or iented instr uments, viz., shor t-ter m securities, repurchase operations and swaps. These instruments prompted the central banks to create, stimulate and support the development of markets particularly, inter-bank deposit market and short-term securities market. In the absence of an efficient interbank market, there was a pressing need for the central banks to create adequate instruments to absorb liquidity and stimulate the formation of markets for alternative short-term assets. The emergence of the short-term securities market added a new dimension to liquidity management by central banks. In the absence of outright transactions in the securities market, the existence of a liquid securities segment in the money market is often believed to facilitate the central banks operations by providing collateral to repurchase agreements and similar collateralised transactions. 3.55 Among developed countries, the money market in the US encompasses a large group of short5

term credit instruments, futures market instruments and the Federal Reserves discount window (Annex III.3). These are generally characterised by a high degree of safety of principal and are most commonly issued in units of US $1 million or more. Treasury Bills issued by the US Treasury and the securities issued by the State and Local Governments have the largest volume outstanding and constitute the most active secondar y mar ket amongst all money mar ket instruments (MMIs) in the US. A key feature of most State and local securities is that the interest income is generally exempt from federal income taxes, which makes them particularly attractive to investors in high income tax brackets. Non-financial and non-bank financial businesses raise funds in the money market primarily by issuing commercial paper (CP) - a shortterm unsecured promissory note. In recent years, an increasing number of firms have gained access to this market, and issue of CPs has grown at a rapid pace. The outstanding CPs is expected to increase to US $ 2.17 trillion in 2007. Besides conventional instruments, money market futures and options have also become popular in the US money market in the recent period. 3.56 Similarly in the UK, the money market has emerged as a mechanism for short-term funding through the issuance of money market instruments or an active fixed-term cash deposit market. It is principally sterling-based but also covers a wide range of other currencies. The Government, the banking sector and industry are among those who raise resources from the money market through the issuance of Treasury Bills, certificates of deposit (CDs) and bills of exchange (BE)/CPs, respectively. Besides, Acceptances and Local Authority Bills also act as MMIs. Commercial bills include bank acceptance and trade paper. Both overseas and inland trade is financed by bank acceptances. Much of the lending in the market takes place overnight. The bulk (90 per cent) of the MMIs held are CDs and the rest are BEs, Treasury Bills and CPs. 3.57 In the Euro system, during the course of the 1990s, repurchase transactions were adopted as a main liquidity management instrument in Denmark (1992), Sweden (1994), Austria (1995), Finland (mid1990s), Switzerland (1998) and then in the whole Euro system since its inception (1999). Several countries such as Austria, the Netherlands and Denmark, in the absence of adequate liquid short-term markets, came to rely on foreign exchange operations

Money market instruments facilitate transfer of large sums of money quickly and at a low cost from one economic unit (business, government, banks, non-banks and others) to another for relatively short periods of time.

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(particularly swaps) for liquidity management. In addition to marketable debt instruments, non-marketable debt instruments and even some equities are eligible for repos. These are of two types, viz., Tier-1 fulfilling uniform euro area-wide eligibility criteria of ECB and Tier-2, subject to the eligible criteria specified by the national central banks and the ECB. 3.58 In Japan, the most active money market segment involves very short-term transactions, which include the borrowing and lending of funds in the call market with or without collateral; the sale and purchase of short-term securities such as CPs, CDs and short-term government bills such as Treasury Bills; and repo transactions with government and/ municipal securities, government guaranteed bonds, corporate bonds and foreign government bonds as eligible collaterals. Purchases of shor t-ter m government bills are used most frequently. 3.59 In Australia, the list of securities eligible under the Intra-day Repurchase Agreement Facility (introduced in 1998) has been broadened to cover several other instr uments. These include commonwealth gover nment secur ities (CGS), domestic debt securities and discount instruments issued by the central borrowing authorities of State and Territory Governments (permitted in 1997), and bank bills and CDs issued by select banks and select debt securities of approved supranational institutions and foreign Governments. At the other end of the spectrum, Canadian MMIs comprise short-term papers of maturity up to 18 months that are issued by the Government, banks and corporations and are available in the US and Canadian dollars. MMIs mainly comprise Treasury Bills and money market strips issued and guaranteed by the Government of Canada. There are also Government guaranteed CPs, which are short-term promissory notes issued by the Crown Corporations such as Canadian Wheat Board and the Federal Business Development Bank. The other MMIs include Treasury Bills and promissory notes issued by the Provincial Governments, bankers acceptances issued by corporations with an unconditional guarantee of a major Canadian chartered bank and CPs issued by the major corporations. 3.60 In several other EMEs such as Russia, South Africa, China, Malaysia and Korea, the main money market instruments are government Treasury Bills, repurchase agreements, bankers acceptances, CPs and CDs. In countries such as Thailand and Indonesia, central banks have aimed to expand the range of instruments by issuing their own bonds/certificates, viz., Bank of Thailand Bonds and Bank of Indonesia 79

Certificates. Moreover, in Thailand, other bonds such as Financial Institution Development Fund Bonds and Government Guaranteed State Enterprise Bonds are used for repo operations. Foreign exchange swap is another instrument that the Bank of Thailand uses to influence liquidity conditions in the money market. Tenor 3.61 In the US, although maturities of MMIs range from one day to one year, the maturity of most common instruments is three months or less. In the UK, the main items in period money are borrowed for 1 and 3 months, but banks may also borrow for a week or for almost any time up to 12 months. The CDs issued by the building societies and actively traded by banks and discount houses have an original maturity of less than one year (although some CDs have a maturity of over a year). They are all shortterm bearer negotiable debt instruments that are either issued at a discount or bear a coupon. In the case of ECB, the maturity of refinancing operations ranges from 1-week to 3-months and for debt securities up to 12- months. Japans tenor for its repo is in the range of 1 week to 6-months. In Canada, the maturity of Treasury Bills ranges from 1-month to 1year and that of money market STRIPS up to 18 months and Government guaranteed CPs from 1month to 1-year. 3.62 In other countries also, money market instruments are mostly short-term in nature with tenor being generally less than a year. In most countries, call money transactions and the repurchase agreements serve as the shorter duration segment of money markets. The tenor of Treasury Bills is of nor mally 91-day, 182-day and 364-day. Market Stabilisation Bonds in Korea even have 546-day maturity period. In the case of certain instruments such as negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs), tenor may be as long as five years also. Participants 3.63 The major participants in the US money market are commercial banks, Governments, corporations, Government-sponsored enterprises, money market mutual funds, futures market exchanges, brokers and dealers and the Fed. Commercial banks are the major participants in the market for federal funds, which are very short-term, mainly overnight. Banks act as dealers in the money market for over-the-counter interest rate derivatives, which has grown rapidly in recent years. The Federal Reserve is also a key participant in the US money market.

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3.64 Another important group of participants in the US money markets include money market mutual funds and local Government investment pools. These pools, which were virtually non-existent before the mid-1970s, have grown to be one of the largest financial intermediaries in the US. A distinct feature of the US money market is that there are groups of privately owned financial intermediaries sponsored by the Government who raise the funds and channel them to farming and housing sectors of the economy. 3.65 In the UK, trading in the money market takes place on an over-the-counter (OTC) basis for the same day settlement. The money market attracts a wide range of participants such as the Government, banking sector, industry and financial institutions such as pension funds. The Bank of England and the UK Debt Management Office also make use of the money market on a daily basis to fulfil their official obligations. Participants in the UK inter-bank market comprise the whole of the banking community (including the discount houses) and non-bank institutions (such as building societies) and the market is served by a number of money market brokers. 3.66 In the Euro system, the ECB, national central banks, the Governments and the eligible credit institutions participate in the money market. Similarly, in Australia, the Central Government, State and Territorial Gover nments, the Reser ve Bank of Australia, banks, Gover nment agencies, other Gover nments of the Commonwealth and supranational institutions are the major participants. In the case of Canada, the participants include both Federal and Provincial Governments, banks, major Crown Corporations such as Canadian Wheat Board and Federal Business Development Bank. 3.67 In Japan, business units of Japanese and non-Japanese banks located in Japan participate in the uncollateralised money market to raise funds. The major participants in the uncollateralised overnight call money market are the city banks which have the largest share as borrowers, while regional banks act as major lenders. The other participants include institutional investors such as investment trusts, trust banks, regional banks, life insurance companies, specialised money market brokers and Keito 6 . The counterparties of the Bank of Japan include banks, securities companies, security finance companies and money market brokers (Tanshi companies).
6

3.68 In most other countries, commercial banks, central banks, regional banks, specialised banks, investment and finance companies, merchant banking corporations, investment trust companies, insurance companies, securities finance corporations, credit insurance funds and business enterprises are the major participants in the money market.

III. MONEY MARKET IN INDIA UP TO THE MID-1980s

3.69 The Indian money market prior to the 1980s was characterised by paucity of instruments, lack of depth and dichotomy in the market structure. The money market consisted of the inter-bank call market, Treasury Bills, commercial bills and participation certificates. Historically, the call money market has constituted the core of the money market structure in India due to lack of other instruments and strict regulations on interest rates and participation. 3.70 In the call/notice money market, overnight money and money at short notice (up to a period of 14 days) are lent and borrowed without collateral. This market enables banks to bridge their short-term liquidity mismatches arising out of their day-to-day operations. The call money market in India was purely an inter-bank market until 1971 when the erstwhile Unit Tr ust of India (UTI) and Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) of India were allowed to participate as lenders. The interest rate in the call money market was freely determined by the market till December 1973. However, as call money rates increased sharply to touch 25-30 per cent, the Indian Banks Association (IBA) instituted an administered system of interest rates by imposing a ceiling interest rate of 15 per cent in December 1973 so as to maintain systemic stability and quell any abnormal rise in the call rates. The ceiling was subject to several revisions but there were several instances of violation of the ceiling rates through other means (like buy-back arrangements) during phases of tight liquidity. 3.71 Treasur y Bills constituted the main instr ument of shor t-ter m borrowing by the Government and served as a convenient gilt-edged security for the money market. The characteristics of high liquidity, absence of default risk and negligible capital depreciation of Treasury Bills made them another attractive instr ument for shor t-ter m investment by banks and other financial institutions.

Keito is a central financing organisation for financial co-operatives such as small and medium sized businesses, agriculture, forestry, and fishery co-operatives.

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The Reser ve Bank, being the banker to the Government, issued Treasury Bills at a discount. The issuance system of Treasury Bills migrated from an auction to tap basis in July 1965 with the rate of discount administratively fixed at 3.5 per cent per annum, which was raised to 4.6 per cent by July 1974 and remained at that level in respect of 91-day Treasury Bills till 1991. There was also a system of ad hoc Treasury Bills from 1955, which were created by the Central Government in favour of the Reserve Bank to automatically restore its cash balances to the minimum stipulated level, whenever there was excess drawdown of cash. 3.72 Par ticipation cer tificates (PCs) and commercial bills (under bills rediscounting scheme) were introduced in the money market in 1970. PCs were utilised mostly by financial institutions to park their funds for longer maturities and could not be developed for meeting liquidity mismatches between financial institutions and/or banks. Under the bills rediscounting scheme, the Reser ve Bank rediscounted genuine trade bills at the Bank Rate or at a rate specified by it. The underlying purpose of developing the bill market was to enable banks and other financial institutions to invest their surplus funds profitably by selecting appropriate maturities. Over the years, the rediscounting facility became restrictive and was made available on a discretionary basis. The main factors inhibiting the development of bill finance were lack of a bill culture, non-availability of stamp papers of required denominations, absence of specialised credit information agencies and an active secondary mar ket. Both these instr uments (par ticipation certificates and commercial bills), however, did not develop and activity in these instruments remained insignificant. 3.73 As a result of inadequate depth and liquidity in the organised money market, the sectoral financing gaps (i.e., the requirements of unsatisfied borrowers in the organised financial system) were met by the unorganised market. The interest rate in this segment was generally higher than that in the organised market reflective of the actual market conditions. As bank credit (both aggregate and sectoral) was the principal focus of monetary policy making under the credit planning approach adopted in 1967-68, this dichotomous nature of the money market served the requirement of monetary management. 3.74 To sum up, the money market during this period could not provide an equilibrating market mechanism for meeting short-term liquidity needs for 81

banks. The prevalence of administered structure in the money market did not permit interest rates to reflect the actual extent of scarcity of funds. Owing to limited participation, money market liquidity was highly skewed, characterised by a few dominant lenders and a large number of chronic borrowers. Faced with these impediments, together with limited Reserve Banks refinance, banks often faced either short-term liquidity problems for meeting the statutor y reser ve requirements or remained saddled with excess liquidity. Banks parked surplus funds, in the absence of alternative instruments, in Treasury Bills before rediscounting them with the Reserve Bank so as to meet the cash reserve requirements on an average basis dur ing the repor ting period. This led to significant fluctuations in banks investments in Treasury Bills and also their cash balances with the Reserve Bank, thereby complicating the task of monetary management. Furthermore, in addition to the rediscounted regular Treasury Bills, the Reserve Bank also had to hold the ad hoc Treasury Bills (issued by the Government of India with a fixed 4.6 per cent interest rate since July 1974) under the system of automatic monetisation, thereby constraining the emergence of Treasury Bills as a money market instrument. Moreover, the government securities market was also characterised by administered interest rates and captive investor base, which made open market operations an ineffective instrument of monetary control thereby constraining, to a large extent, the regular management of short-term liquidity by the Reserve Bank. IV. EVOLUTION OF RESERVE BANKS LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT 3.75 The nascent state of development of the money market in India and the administered interest rate structure inhibited active liquidity management operations of the Reserve Bank. The Reserve Bank regulated market liquidity by essentially operating through direct instruments such as CRR and sectorspecific refinance. As monetary policy was largely contingent on the fiscal stance, monetary operations were undertaken to neutralise the fiscal impact. Consequently, with the dominance of the quantum channel in the transmission mechanism, there was little scope of signalling monetary policy changes through indirect instruments. Therefore, the money market increasingly reflected the spillover impact of monetary policy operations through direct instruments. The increasingly unsustainable fiscal conditions, as reflected in macroeconomic imbalances, necessitated structural reforms from the early 1990s. Consequently,

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the emphasis on the market paradigm gathered momentum, warranting greater use of indirect instruments for the conduct of monetary policy. Concomitantly, the Reserve Bank refined its operating procedures of liquidity management in tandem with the changing financial landscape. Major developments in the liquidity management operations of the Reserve Bank and developments of money market have taken place since the mid-1980s. However, in order to place these developments in proper perspective, it may be useful to understand the broad contours of liquidity management by the Reserve Bank since the late 1960s. 3.76 Monetary policy up to the mid-1980s was predominantly conducted through direct instruments with credit budgets for the banks being framed in sync with monetary budgeting (Mohan, op. cit). This period was marked by administered interest rates, credit ceilings, directed lending, automatic monetisation of deficits and fixed exchange rates. The Indian economy functioned essentially as a closed and controlled economy with the role of market being virtually nonexistent due to the existing structural rigidities in the system. In the absence of a formal intermediate target, bank credit - aggregate as well as sectoral came to serve as a proximate target of monetary policy after the adoption of credit planning in 1967-68 (Jalan, 2002). The money market was essentially represented by the inter-bank call market, where activity was mainly driven by the banks demand for reserves for meeting their statutory commitments. Furthermore, strong seasonality in demand for money and credit during agricultural seasons also influenced market activity. In the presence of skewed distribution of liquidity, these factors made the call money rates highly volatile, necessitating imposition of interest rate ceilings. In the absence of stability in the money market, and with planned allocation of credit under an administered structure of interest rates, the Reserve Bank had little choice but to conduct its liquidity management operations through a standard mix of OMOs and changes in the Bank Rate. The OMOs were conducted through outright transactions in government securities. 3.77 Although credit planning guided monetary policy, the concerns about rising inflation during the 1970s and the 1980s attracted a good deal of policy attention. Apart from supply shocks (oil prices and crop failures), inflation was increasingly believed to be caused by excessive monetar y expansion generated by large scale monetisation of fiscal deficits during the 1980s. Accordingly, the Reserve Bank 82

began to pay greater attention to the movements in monetary aggregates. Against this backdrop, the Committee to Review the Working of the Monetary System (Chairman: Sukhamoy Chakravarty, 1985) recommended a framework of monetary targeting with feedback. In pursuance of the recommendations of this Committee, the Reserve Bank began to target a desirable growth in money supply consistent with a tolerable level of inflation and expected output growth (RBI, 1985). Thus, broad money emerged as an intermediate target of monetary policy and the Reserve Bank began to formally announce monetary targets as nominal anchor for inflation. 3.78 The adoption of monetar y targeting necessitated considerable changes in the operating procedures of monetary policy. Over the years, the Reserve Bank, through its refinancing and open market operations, had already succeeded, to a large extent, in reducing the level of interest rates in general and the call money rate in particular; albeit by varying the ceiling rate (it reached 8.5 per cent by March 1978 although it was again raised to 10.0 per cent in April 1980). However, the fiscal dominance since the late 1970s made the traditional instruments of Bank Rate and OMO less effective. The scope for OMO was limited as yields were governed by an administered interest rate regime, including sale of Treasury Bills on tap at a coupon of 4.6 per cent fixed since 1974 (Mohan, op. cit). In this scenario, the Reserve Bank began to use reser ve requirements and credit planning for modulating monetar y and liquidity conditions. As a result, the CRR reached the ceiling of 15 per cent of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) in July 1989 and the SLR reached the peak of 38.5 per cent in September 1990. The increase in SLR was, however, unable to fully meet the financing requirements of the Government, thereby leading to monetary accommodation by the Reserve Bank (RBI, 2004a). As monetary financing of fiscal deficits is inflationary beyond a point, an increase in the Reserve Banks support to the Government was accompanied by an increase in CRR to rein in monetary expansion. Despite these measures, however, money supply growth remained high and contributed to inflation. This underscored the need for monetar y-fiscal coordination in achieving price stability. 3.79 In tandem with the shifts in operating procedures, the proper development of the money market was also emphasised, partly due to the success in lowering the call money rates, albeit, through reductions in interest rate ceilings. The Chakravarty Committee (1985) was the first to make

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comprehensive recommendations for the development of the Indian money mar ket. Furthermore, the Reserve Bank set up a Working Group on the Money Market (Chairman: Shri N. Vaghul, 1987) to specifically examine various aspects for widening and deepening the money market. Following the recommendations of these two committees, several new initiatives were undertaken by the Reser ve Bank. These included (i) setting up of the Discount and Finance House of India (DFHI) in 1988 to impart liquidity to money market instruments and help the development of secondar y mar kets in such instr uments; (ii) introduction of instruments such as CDs (1989) and CPs (1990) and inter-bank participation certificates (with and without risk) (1988) to increase the range of instruments; (iii) freeing of call money rates by May 1989 to enable price discovery; and (iv) introduction of auctions of 182-day Treasury Bills (November 1986) with a view to moving towards a system of marketdetermined yields. Although these measures created the ground for the development of a proper money market, the efficient functioning of the market was hindered by a number of other structural rigidities in the system such as skewed distribution of liquidity and the prevalence of administered deposit and lending rates. 3.80 The process of financial liberalisation introduced in the early 1990s, as part of the overall economic reforms programme, led to a structural shift in the financing paradigm for the Government and the commercial sectors. The role of the financial system was reassessed and the emphasis shifted from a mere channelisation to efficient allocation of resources to sustain the higher growth. With a view to improving the resource allocation process and facilitating efficient price discovery in the financial markets, the Reserve Bank initiated a multi-pronged strategy of institutional reforms. The measures introduced by the Reserve Bank were aimed at widening, deepening and integrating var ious segments of the financial market, especially the money market, and smoothening the process of transmission of policy impulses across market segments. Major reforms introduced in the financial markets were liberalisation of exchange rates in March 1993, deregulation of interest rates, abolition of credit ceilings (although directed lending continued), introduction of auctions in Treasury Bills (364-day Treasury Bills in April 1992 and 91-day Treasury Bills
7

in January 1993), market borrowing of the Government through the auction route since 1992-93 (gilt yields became market determined through rising coupon rates) and phasing out of automatic monetisation of fiscal deficits (following the signing of the Supplemental Accord in 1997). All these measures paved the way for increased financial innovations and market sophistication which, along with large swings in capital flows, induced a degree of instability in the money demand function, thereby limiting the role of money as an intermediate target. 3.81 Various changes in financial market structure necessitated a major shift in monetar y policy operating framework in India from monetary targeting to a multiple indicator approach in 1998. As part of this approach, the Reserve Bank started using the information content in interest rates and rates of return in different markets along with currency, credit, fiscal position, trade, capital flows, inflation rate, exchange rate, refinancing and transactions in foreign exchange, by juxtaposing it with output data for drawing policy perspectives. The success of this approach required greater monetary policy flexibility, especially in view of market orientation of policy. Therefore, the emphasis was placed on the money market as the focal point for the conduct of monetary policy and fostering its integration with other financial markets as detailed in the subsequent sections. 3.82 In the changed scenario, monetary policy, which largely operated in a closed economy framework till the early 1990s, had to contend with the dynamics of an open economy. The transition of economic policies in general, and financial sector policies in particular, from a control oriented regime to a liberalised but regulated regime was reflected in changes in the approach of monetary management (Mohan, 2004). Accordingly, in line with the increasing market orientation of the economy and shift in the operating framework, the third phase of liquidity management operations began from the second half of the 1990s with the Reserve Bank moving away from direct instruments of monetary control to indirect instruments. The CRR was brought down from 15 per cent of NDTL (during July 1989-April 1993) to 9.5 per cent by November 1997 (it reached a low of 4.5 per cent in June 2003)7. The SLR was reduced to the statutory minimum of 25 per cent by October 1997. Under this system, while reserve requirement was the

In the light of developments in current macroeconomic, monetary and anticipated liquidity conditions, the Reserve Bank, on March 30, 2007, announced to raise CRR by 50 basis points to 6.50 per cent in April 2007.

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principal medium of modulating liquidity on a systemic basis, banks took recourse to Reser ve Banks refinance facilities to meet their short-term funding requirements. Introduction of reverse repos 8 (then called repos) in 1992 provided an instrument for absorption of liquidity from banks having surplus funds. This, in conjunction with government market borrowing through auctions since 1992-93, raised the yields on government securities (from 6.5 per cent in 1985-86 to 11.5 per cent in 1997-98) and led to the shortening of maturity of the Government debt. This marked the beginning of development of a secondary market in government securities and the market determination of interest rates. With the objective of managing shor t-term liquidity and smoothening interest rates in the call/notice money market, the Reserve Bank began absorbing excess liquidity through auctions of reverse repos. Furthermore, with exchange rate liberalisation (the rupee became fully convertible on the current account in 1994) and opening up of the economy, the exchange rate began to play an important role in monetary management. In the process, the exchange rate became endogenous to money, income, prices and interest rates and, with financial innovations, the disequilibrium in money markets begun to be reflected in short-term interest rates (Mohan, op cit). In view of these changes, the call money market became the focal point of market intervention by the Reserve Bank. 3.83 The volatility in call rates, however, continued, necessitating some instruments for managing liquidity. Against this backdrop, the Committee on Banking Sector Reforms (Narasimham Committee II, 1998) stressed that interest rate movements in the inter-bank call money market should be orderly and this could only be achieved if the Reserve Bank has a presence in the market through short-term reverse repos (as per current terminology). Following the committees recommendations, the reverse repos, which were in operation from 1992, got integrated with the interim liquidity adjustment facility (ILAF) introduced in April 1999. The absorption of liquidity continued to be at fixed rate reverse repos. Although absorption of liquidity was done through a single reverse repo rate, the system of injecting liquidity through various ways, including refinance, continued at interest rates linked to the Bank Rate, which was reactivated in April 1997.

Under the ILAF, the general refinance facility was replaced by a collateralised lending facility (CLF) and additional collateralised lending facility (ACLF) linked to the Bank Rate. Similarly, export credit refinance and liquidity support to PDs were also linked to the Bank Rate. Thus, the reverse repo rate (as floor) and the Bank Rate (as the ceiling) provided an informal corridor in the money market. 3.84 In the light of the experience gained in the operation of ILAF, an Internal Group set up by the Reserve Bank recommended gradual implementation of a full-fledged LAF as suggested by the Narasimham Committee (1998). Accordingly, the system of ILAF migrated to a system of Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) in stages beginning June 2000 (Box III.2). The fixed rate reverse repo was replaced by variable reverse repo auctions, while ACLF and level II liquidity support to PDs was replaced by variable repos auctions, conducted on a daily basis. Consequently, the repo rate replaced the earlier Bank Rate as the ceiling of the corridor, thereby enabling injection of liquidity at a single rate (i.e., repo rate), while the floor continued to be the reverse repo rate. This signified a major change in the operating procedure and liquidity management operations by the Reserve Bank as it facilitated the transition from direct instruments to indirect (market-based) instruments of monetary management. Furthermore, it has also provided the necessar y flexibility to the Reser ve Bank in modulating liquidity (both supply of and demand for funds) on a daily basis through policy rate changes. This has ensured stability in the call money rates, which have generally remained within the corridor 9 (Chart III.1) . This, in turn, has promoted the stability of short-term interest rates in the money market. 3.85 Consider ing the impor tance of guiding monetary policy operations on a sound basis, the Annual Policy Statement of April 1999 underlined the need for developing a short-term operational model which takes into account the behavioural relationships among different segments of the financial system. Under the guidance of a group of eminent academic exper ts, a model was developed and made operational in 2002 for forecasting short-term liquidity conditions to facilitate daily liquidity management operations of the Reserve Bank.

With effect from October 29, 2004, the nomenclature of repo and reverse repo has been interchanged as per international usages. Accordingly, repos now signify injection while reverse repos signify absorption of liquidity. Call rate hardened during the second half of March 2007 as liquidity conditions tightened due to advance tax outflows, year-end considerations, sustained credit demand and asymmetric distribution of government securities holdings across banks.

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Box III.2 Liquidity Adjustment Facility

As part of financial sector reforms initiated in the early 1990s, India began to move away from direct instruments of monetary control to indirect ones, which, in turn, warranted a mechanism that can accord greater flexibility and effective liquidity management so as to maintain orderly conditions in the financial markets, particularly in the wake of surging volatile capital flows. As a corollary, pursuant to the recommendations of the Narasimham Committee (1998), the LAF was introduced in stages commensurate with the specific features of the Indian financial system, the level of market development and technological advances in the payment and settlement systems. In the process, the critical issue facing the Reserve Bank was to channelise the various sources of its liquidity through a single comprehensive window at a common pr ice. Consequently, an inter im liquidity adjustment facility (ILAF) was introduced in April 1999 which enabled the Reserve Bank to modulate market liquidity on a daily basis and also transmit interest rate signals to the market. With the introduction of ILAF, the general refinance facility was replaced by a collateralised lending facility (CLF) up to 0.25 per cent of the fortnightly average of outstanding aggregate deposits in 1997-98 for two weeks at the Bank Rate and an additional collateralised lending facility (ACLF) for an equivalent amount of CLF at the Bank Rate plus 2 per cent. A penal rate of 2 per cent was stipulated for an additional two week period. However, expor t credit refinance for scheduled commercial banks was retained and continued to be provided at the Bank Rate. Simultaneously, a provision for liquidity support to PDs against collateral of government securities was also made available. The ILAF was intended to ensure that interest rates move within a reasonable range and promote stability in the money market. The transition from ILAF to a fullfledged LAF commenced in June 2000 and progressed gradually in three stages. The first stage began from June 5, 2000 when LAF was formally introduced with the replacement of ACLF and level II support to PDs by variable rate repo auctions with same day settlement. The second stage commenced from May 2001, when CLF and level I liquidity support for banks and PDs was also replaced by variable rate repo auctions. However, some minimum liquidity support to PDs was retained but at an interest rate linked to variable rate in the daily repos auctions as determined by the Reserve Bank from time to time. Furthermore during April 2003, the multiplicity of rates at which liquidity was being injected was rationalised with the back-stop interest rate being fixed at the reverse repo cut-off rate of the regular LAF auctions on that day. Concomitantly, a back-stop rate was fixed at 2.0 percentage points above the repo cut-off rate in the event of no reverse repo in the LAF auctions. On days when no reverse repo/repo bids are received/accepted, back-stop rate was decided by the Reserve Bank on an ad hoc basis. Subsequently from March 29, 2004 the reverse repo rate was scaled down to 6.0 per cent and aligned with the Bank Rate under the revised LAF scheme. A single facility available at a single rate was introduced by merging normal facility and back stop facility together. Moreover in April 2004, fixed rate auctions were re-introduced. With effect from October 29, 2004, the nomenclature of repo and reverse repo was interchanged as per international usage. The repo now indicates injection of liquidity, while reverse repo stands for absorption of liquidity. The full computerisation of Public Debt Office (PDO) of the Reserve Bank set the third stage of full-fledged LAF and onset of RTGS marked a major leap forward in this phase. Repo operations today are mainly through electronic transfers and the LAF can be operated at different times of the same day. Consequently, the Second LAF (SLAF) was introduced from November 28, 2005 providing the market participants a second window to finetune their management of liquidity. Unlike the past LAF operations, which were conducted in the forenoon between 9.30 am and 10.30 am, the SLAF is conducted by receiving bids between 3.00 pm and 3.45 pm. Although the salient features of SLAF and LAF are same, their settlements are conducted separately on a gross basis. Thus, the introduction of LAF has been a process and the Indian experience shows that phased rather than a big bang approach is required for reforms in the financial sector and in monetary management (Mohan, op. cit). LAF has now emerged as the pr incipal operating instrument of monetary policy. It has helped in stabilising the regular liquidity cycles and, subsequently, the volatility of call money rates by allowing banks to fine-tune their liquidity needs as per the averaging requirements of CRR over the reporting period. This smoothened the liquidity positions at the beginning and end of the month. Besides, it helped to modulate sudden liquidity shocks engendered by temporary mismatches induced by outflows/inflows on account of Gover nment auctions/redemptions and advance tax payments. More importantly, the LAF has emerged as an effective instrument for maintaining orderly conditions in the financial markets in the face of volatile capital flows. Thus, the LAF has imparted a muchneeded flexibility to the Reserve Bank in modulating the liquidity in the system and steering the desired trajectory of interest rates in response to evolving market conditions.

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REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Chart III.1: LAF Corridor and the Call Rate

Chart III.2: Reserve Bank's Open Market Operations

19-Aug-01

11-Jan-01

16-Jan-04

23-Aug-04

27-Mar-02

05-Jun-00

10-Jun-03

31-Mar-05

14-Jun-06

20-Jan-07

02-Nov-02

06-Nov-05

Rupees crore

Per cent

Net RBI Credit to the Centre OMO (Sales)

Net Foreign Currency Assets

Call Rate

Reverse Repo Rate

Repo Rate

3.86 The issue of managing large and persistent capital flows and synchronicity in monetary policy cycles across the globe has added another dimension to the issue of liquidity management in the Indian context in recent years. The period since mid-2002 has generally been characterised by surplus liquidity in the system in the wake of large capital inflows and current account surplus (till 2003-04). An enduring challenge to monetary policy has been to manage such surplus liquidity so as to keep the call money rates stable for overall stability in the market. Accordingly, in order to sterilise the impact of capital flows, the Reser ve Bank had to operate simultaneously through the LAF and OMOs (outright transactions of dated securities and Treasury Bills). 3.87 The OMOs have been effectively used by the Reserve Bank since the mid-1990s for sterilising the monetary impact of capital flows by offloading the stock of government securities to the market (Chart III.2). The net open market sales increased from Rs.10,464 crore in 1996-97 to Rs.53,781 crore in 2002-03. However, repeated recourse to OMOs for sterilisation purposes during this period depleted the stock of government securities held by the Reserve Bank from Rs.52,546 crore at end-March 2003 to Rs.40,750 crore at end-March 2004, despite the conversion of the available stock of non-marketable special securities (of Rs.61,818 crore), created out of past ad hoc and Tap Treasury Bills, into tradable securities during the year. Accordingly, the burden of sterilisation shifted to the LAF, which was essentially designed as a tool of adjusting marginal liquidity. As 86

a result, the open market sales by the Reserve Bank as a proportion of the accretion of securities to its gilt portfolio dropped to about 50 per cent during 2003-04 from an average of 90 per cent in the preceding five years following a switch to LAF operations (RBI, 2004b). 3.88 Given the finite stock of government securities in its portfolio and the legal restrictions on issuing its own paper, the Reserve Bank felt that instruments other than LAF were needed to fulfil the objective of absorbing liquidity of a more enduring nature. This resulted in the introduction of the market stabilisation scheme (MSS) in Apr il 2004 as a special arrangement, following the recommendations of the Working Group on Instruments of Sterilisation, 2003 (Chair person: Smt. Usha Thorat). Under this arrangement, the Government issued Treasury Bills and/or dated securities in addition to the normal borrowing requirements for absorbing excess liquidity from the system. The ceiling amount, which was initially fixed at Rs.60,000 crore was raised to Rs.80,000 crore on October 14, 2004 but reduced to Rs.70,000 crore on March 24, 2006 and again raised to Rs.80,000 crore for 2007-08. The MSS proceeds are held in a separate identifiable cash account by the Gover nment (reflected as equivalent cash balances held by the Government with the Reserve Bank) and are appropriated only for the purpose of redemption and/or buyback of the Treasury Bills and/ or dated securities issued under the MSS. Thus, while it provided another tool for liquidity management, it was designed in such a manner that it did not have

MONEY MARKET

any fiscal impact except to the extent of interest payment on the outstanding amount under the MSS. The amount absorbed under the MSS, which had reached Rs.78,906 crore on September 2, 2005, declined to about Rs.32,000 crore in February 2006 due to unwinding of nearly Rs.47,000 crore in view of overall marginal liquidity which has transited from the surplus to the deficit mode. As part of unwinding, fresh issuances under the MSS were suspended between November 2005 and April 2006. In several subsequent auctions during 2006-07, only partial amounts were accepted under the MSS. Subsequently, the amount absorbed under the MSS increased again to Rs.62,974 crore in March 2007. The MSS has, thus, provided the Reserve Bank the necessary flexibility to not only absorb liquidity but also to ease liquidity through its unwinding, if necessar y. With the introduction of the MSS, the pressure of sterilisation on LAF has declined considerably and LAF operations have been able to fine-tune liquidity on a daily basis more effectively (Table 3.1). Thus, the MSS empowered the Reserve Bank to undertake liquidity absorptions on a more enduring but still temporary basis and succeeded in restoring LAF to its intended function of daily liquidity management (Mohan, op cit). 3.89 Furthermore, the build up and volatility in Governments cash balances with the Reserve Bank in recent years have significantly impacted the liquidity conditions. The Working Group on Instruments of Sterilisation favoured revisiting the 1997 agreement so that Governments surpluses with the Reserve Bank are not automatically invested and can remain as interest free balances, thereby releasing gover nment secur ities for fur ther sterilisation operations. Accordingly, the arrangement of allowing the Central Government to invest the surplus funds in its own paper since 1997 (to give a notional return on such balances) was discontinued temporarily from April 8, 2004. However, following the introduction of the MSS, it was partially restored with a ceiling of Rs.10,000 crore in June 2004, which was further raised to Rs.20,000 crore in October 2004. While the Governments surplus cash balances may have enabled the Reserve Bank to sterilise the monetary impact of excess liquidity, at times, it has also resulted in sudden transition in liquidity conditions. The build up of large and unanticipated cash surpluses of the Government with the Reserve Bank and its depletion over a short period poses fresh challenges for liquidity management and maintenance of stable conditions in the money market. 3.90 The dynamics of surplus liquidity in the recent per iod shows that the total sur plus liquidity 87

Table 3.1: Liquidity Absorptions

(Rupees crore) Outstanding as on Last Friday of month 1 2004 April May June July August September October November December 2005 January February March* April May June July August September October November December 2006 January February March* April May June July August September October November December 2007 January February March LAF MSS Centres Surplus with the RBI @ 4 0 0 0 0 7,943 21,896 18,381 26,518 26,517 17,274 15,357 26,102 6,449 7,974 21,745 16,093 23,562 34,073 21,498 33,302 45,855 39,080 37,013 48,828 5,611 0 8,621 8,770 26,791 34,821 25,868 31,305 65,581 42,494 53,115 49,992 Total (2 to 4) 5 95,926 1,03,546 99,177 99,486 1,00,218 93,396 80,923 84,215 81,545 86,533 1,02,767 1,09,643 1,01,186 1,10,110 1,03,096 1,03,753 1,25,933 1,25,906 1,12,090 1,01,319 64,212# 55,805 56,256 85,140 77,692 85,062 84,481 91,920 93,140 78,800 78,229 85,217 71,311 70,424 1,02,862 83,781

2 73,075 72,845 61,365 53,280 40,640 19,245 7,455 5,825 2,420 14,760 26,575 19,330 27,650 33,120 9,670 18,895 25,435 24,505 20,840 3,685 -27,755 -20,555 -12,715 7,250 47,805 57,245 42,565 44,155 23,985 1,915 12,270 15,995 -31,685 -11,445 6,940 -29,185

3 22,851 30,701 37,812 46,206 51,635 52,255 55,087 51,872 52,608 54,499 60,835 64,211 67,087 69,016 71,681 68,765 76,936 67,328 69,752 64,332 46,112 37,280 31,958 29,062 24,276 27,817 33,295 38,995 42,364 42,064 40,091 37,917 37,314 39,375 42,807 62,974

@ : Excludes minimum cash balances with the Reserve Bank. * : Data pertain to March 31. # Reflects IMD redemption of about Rs.32,000 crore. Note : Negative sign in column 2 indicates injection of liquidity through LAF repo.

(comprising MSS, LAF and Government surplus) in the system increased to over Rs.1,25,000 crore in August 2005. Reflecting such surplus conditions in the banking system, the call money rate hovered generally around the lower bound of the corridor (i.e., the reverse repo rate), which (along with the repo rate) has emerged as the main instrument of policy in the short-run (see Chart III.1). The Bank Rate now serves

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Rupees crore

the role of a signalling instrument for the mediumterm. Commensurate with these changes, the LAF has been further refined. Facilitated by the introduction of real time gross settlement (RTGS) system, it has now been possible to operate LAF at different times of the same day (Second LAF was introduced from November 28, 2005) providing market participants a second window to fine-tune the management of liquidity. The evidence so far suggests active transaction through the Second LAF during periods of easy liquidity (Table 3.2). 3.91 The surplus liquidity conditions, however, eased to about Rs.55,000 crore by January 2006 following the pressures from redemption of India Millennium Deposits (IMDs) (US $ 7.1 billion or about Rs.32,000 crore on December 28-29, 2005). The sustained pick-up in nonfood credit (around 30 per cent witnessed since mid2004), brought the liquidity position from the surplus mode to the deficit mode, leading to injections of liquidity through LAF repos during December 2005-February 2006 (Chart III.3). To meet their liquidity requirements, banks have been unwinding their excess SLR holdings (from about 13 per cent of NDTL at end-March 2005 to about 3 per cent by end-March 2007) above the prescribed minimum of 25 per cent. The depletion of SLR investments by banks has resulted in call rates firming up to the ceiling of the LAF corridor and beyond, even when reverse repo bids have been received under the LAF and funds have been absorbed from the system. This indicates that some banks overdrew both collateral and cash, thereby necessitating rollovers at the short-end of the market

Chart III.3: Liquidity Adjustment Facility and the Call Rate

spectrum leading to pressures on liquidity and interest rates. In this regard, the Governments decision in the Union Budget 2006-07 to conver t the entire outstanding recapitalisation bonds/special securities issued to nationalised banks, amounting to Rs. 20,809 crore, into tradable, SLR eligible securities could reduce the pressure on banks seeking appropriate collaterals. 3.92 In the current phase of monetary tightening, the Reserve Bank has raised the reverse repo rates
(Amount in Rupees crore)

Table 3.2: First and Second LAF

Period 1 December 2005 January 2006 February 2006 March 2006@ April 2006 May 2006 June 2006 July 2006 August 2006 September 2006 October 2006 November 2006 December 2006 January 2007 February 2007 March 2007 Average daily LAF Operations (net) 2 -1,452 15,386 13,532 6,319 -46,088 -59,505 -48,611 -48,027 -36,326 -25,862 -12,262 -9,937 1,713 10,738 -648 11,858 Average daily First LAF Operations (net) 3 654 12,938 10,850 5,520 -18,480 -29,600 -25,647 -26,486 -21,677 -12,544 -5,435 -1,315 6,548 7,170 3,211 9,701 Average daily Second LAF Operations (net) 4 -2,106 2,447 2,682 799 -27,608 -29,905 -22,964 -21,541 -14,649 -13,318 -6,827 -8,622 -4,836 3,569 -3,859 2,157 Share of First LAF in Total LAF (per cent) 5 64.6 72.9 74.9 54.1 41.1 49.7 52.8 55.2 59.7 47.8 44.4 13.2 41.6 46.8 36.4 55.5 Share of Second LAF in Total LAF (per cent) 6 35.4 27.1 25.1 45.9 58.9 50.3 47.2 44.8 40.3 52.2 55.6 86.8 58.4 53.2 63.6 44.5

@ : Additional LAF conducted on March 31, 2006 has been shown under second LAF. Note: (+) indicates injection of liquidity through LAF repos while (-) indicates absorption of liquidity through LAF reverse repos.

88

05-Jun-00 09-Oct-00 09-Feb-01 20-Jun-01 29-Nov-01 03-Apr-02 26-Jul-02 08-Nov-02 21-Feb-03 13-Jun-03 23-Sep-03 06-Jan-04 21-Apr-04 02-Aug-04 11-Nov-04 24-Feb-05 10-Jun-05 23-Sep-05 04-Jan-06 24-Apr-06 01-Aug-06 13-Nov-06 27-Feb-07

Reverse Repo Amount Call Rate (Right Scale)

Repo Amount

Per cent

MONEY MARKET

six times of 25 basis points each since October 2004, which along with the corresponding adjustments in the repo rate had narrowed down the corridor to 100 basis points by April 2005 (which subsequently increased to 175 basis points with the increase in repo rate by 25 basis points each on October 31, 2006, January 31, 2007 and March 30, 2007). The Reserve Bank has emphasised gradual changes in policy rates,

as large changes in interest rates could be disruptive, particularly in the wake of increased openness of the economy and the current stage of development of financial markets. This approach has been successful in signalling the market about the need for such preemptive actions in order to stabilise inflation expectations. Various segments of the financial market have responded well to the policy signals (Box III.3).

Box III.3 The Interface between Monetary Policy Announcements and Financial Market Behaviour
The effectiveness of monetary policy hinges on the ability of the monetary authority to communicate with the public in a clear and transparent manner. In this regard, the signalling of policy assumes key importance as it conveys the stance of monetar y policy. While the signalling mechanisms in developed countries are quite robust, they tend to be weak in emerging mar ket economies, particularly in the wake of market segmentation and absence of a well-defined transmission mechanism. Financial markets are typically characterised by asymmetric information, where some agents are better informed than others, that gets reflected in the problems of moral hazard and adverse selection. Seminal research on the economic theory of information has demonstrated that better-informed agents in a market could credibly signal (transmit) their information to less informed agents, so as to avoid some of the problems associated with adverse selection and improve the market outcome (Spence, 1973). The effectiveness of monetary policy is strongly related to the signalling of policy, the reason being that important variables such as the exchange rate and long-term interest rates reflect expectations about future monetary policy. Central banks usually consider four different types of signalling channels, viz., (a) speeches of executives, (b) views about future inflation, (c) changes in policy instruments and (d) publication of the minutes of policy meetings. In particular, the announcement of an inflation forecast or a monetary conditions index (MCI) is used to signal central banks intentions. In India, several measures have been initiated in the postrefor m per iod to develop indirect instr uments for transmitting policy signals. An important measure was the reactivation of the Bank Rate in April 1997 by initially linking it to all other rates, including Reserve Banks refinance rates. The introduction of fixed rate reverse repo helped in creating an informal corridor in the money market with the reverse repo rate as the floor and the Bank Rate as the ceiling, which enabled the Reserve Bank to modulate the call rate within this informal corridor. Subsequently, the introduction of the Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) from June 2000 facilitated the modulation of liquidity conditions and also short-term interest rates on a daily basis through the LAF window, while signalling the medium-term stance of policy through changes in the Bank Rate. In the Indian context, some attempts have been made to empir ically examine the interrelationship between monetary policy signals and financial market behaviour in a VAR framework (Bhattacharyya and Sensarma, 2005). Monetary policy signals are proxied by changes in the CRR, the Bank Rate and the LAF reverse repo rate. The impact of these signalling instruments of monetary policy is considered on four segments of the financial market, viz., money market (call money rate), stock market (BSE Sensex), foreign exchange market (3-month forward premia) and the government securities market (yield on 1-year G-sec). Impulse response analysis is used to study the impact of a one standard error shock in each policy indicator on the various financial market segments. The study reveals that an increase in the CRR raises the call money rate instantly because of the news effect and also over time through the liquidity effect as more resources get impounded causing tightness in liquidity conditions. This is also the case for forward premia and yields on government securities. It has more of an instantaneous news impact in the stock market by depressing the market sentiment. An increase in the Bank Rate, as the signalling mechanism of policy stance over the medium-term, appears to have an instantaneous effect on call, government securities and forward premia because of the news effect. The long-term impact, however, gets muted as refinance at the Bank Rate is formula driven and not adequate to have a liquidity impact. In the stock market, hardening of the Bank Rate is construed as restrictive monetary policy, which dampens the market sentiment. An increase in the reverse repo rate, as the signalling mechanism of policy stance in the short-term, appears to have an instantaneous effect on call, government securities and forward premia because of the announcement effect and makes the term-structure steep at the short-end. Like the Bank Rate, repo rate hike also dampens the market sentiment. The instantaneous impact of monetary policy signals on most financial market segments points towards increasing integration and sophistication of markets. Therefore, increasing reliance on indirect instruments, greater market integration and technological innovations prima facie have improved the channels of communication between the Reserve Bank and the financial market and facilitated the conduct of monetary policy.

89

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

3.93 Despite all these developments, the behaviour of call rates, which occasionally breached

the corridor has called for a re-look at the market microstructure (Box III.4). Accordingly, as part of the

Box III.4 Market Microstructure: Issues in Money Market Liquidity

A liquid money market is an important pre-requisite for the effective transmission of monetary policy. In particular, a deep and liquid money market contributes towards a more effective propagation of the impulses of central bank policy inter vention in financial markets. Besides, price determination is more efficient in a liquid money market and conveys important information to monetary authorities on market expectations. In this context, central banks modulate and fine-tune money market liquidity not only for monetary management but also in their quest for preserving financial stability. Measures of money market liquidity are based on three dimensions, viz., tightness, depth and resiliency. Tightness refers to how far transaction prices diverge from the average market price, i.e., the general costs incurred irrespective of the level of market prices. Depth denotes either the volume of trades possible without affecting prevailing market prices, or the amount of orders in the order books of market makers at any time period. Finally, resiliency refers either to the speed with which price fluctuations resulting from the trade are dissipated, or the speed with which imbalances in order flows are adjusted. Other measures such as the number and volume of trades, trading frequency, turnover ratio, price volatility and the number of market participants are often regarded as readily available proxies for market liquidity. As the buying and selling rates in any market transaction are commonly referred as bid and offer (ask) rates in financial market parlance, one of the most frequently used measures of tightness is the bid-ask spread. The bid-ask spread, i.e., the differential between the lowest bid quote (the price at which a market participant is willing to borrow in the interbank market) and the highest ask quote (at which the agent is willing to lend) represents an operational measure of the price of the agents services in the absence of other transaction costs. Depth is reflected by the maximum size of a trade for any given bid-ask spread. The turnover ratio, i.e., the turnover in the money market as a percentage of total outstanding money market transactions, also provides an additional measure of the depth of the market. However, a more accurate measure of market depth would take into account advances of both actual and potential transactions arising out of portfolio adjustments. Finally, while there is no appropriate measure of resiliency, one approach is to examine the speed of the restoration of normal market conditions (such as the bid-ask spread and order volume) after transactions are completed. Thus, a relatively more liquid money market, ceteris paribus, requires less time to execute a transaction, operates on a narrower bid-ask spread, supports higher volumes for a given spread and requires relatively less time for the restoration of the normal bid-ask spread following a high value transaction. On the basis of these criteria, the Indian money market appears to be a reasonably deep, vibrant and liquid market (based on overnight data on bid-ask spread from April 1, 2004 to February 28, 2007). During this period, the bidask spread has varied within a range of (-)0.37 to (+)1.32 basis points with an average of 16 basis points and standard deviation (SD) of 11 basis points (coefficient of variation is 0.69). Despite a higher degree of variation, the bid-ask spread remained within the 2-SD band around the average during most of the period (Chart). Considerable volatility above the average was witnessed up to December 2004. It eased up significantly during the major part of 2005 but increased subsequently during the early part of 2006. During 2006-07, while bid-ask spreads ruled below the average till August 2006, increase in spreads beyond the 2-SD band were noticed during end-December 2006 on account of tightness in liquidity due to the impact of the staggered hike of 0.5 percentage point in the CRR and the advance tax flows from the banking system. The bid-ask spread hardened significantly in March 2007, reflecting tight
Chart: Bid Ask Spread in the Call Money Market

Per cent

Bid-Ask Spread Source: Reuters

liquidity conditions on account of advance tax outflows, year-end considerations and sustained credit demand. However, events such as the blast of July 11, 2006 in Mumbai did not have any significant impact on the bid-ask spread in the call money market. Differences in market microstructure can affect market liquidity considerably. In this regard, evolution of market structure is mostly driven by the rapid structural, technological and regulatory changes affecting global financial markets. In the Indian context, the gradual shift towards a collateralised market, phasing out of non-bank participants from call money market, reductions in statutory reserve requirements, introduction of new instruments such as CBLO, implementation of RTGS and facilitating the trading through NDS-CALL are some of the factors that have contributed to the development of a relatively vibrant and liquid money market.

90

01-Apr-04 20-May-04 02-Jul-04 13-Aug-04 27-Sep-04 06-Nov-04 15-Dec-04 19-Jan-05 25-Feb-05 06-Apr-05 16-May-05 21-Jun-05 29-Jul-05 05-Sep-05 11-Oct-05 19-Nov-05 24-Dec-05 31-Jan-06 08-Mar-06 18-Apr-06 25-May-06 29-Jun-06 03-Aug-06 08-Sept-06 16-Oct-06 23-Nov-06 29-Dec-06 07-Feb-07

Mean

Mean+2SD

Mean-2SD

MONEY MARKET

policy strategy of focusing on market microstructure, the Reserve Bank took several initiatives for further deepening the money market along with other market segments in order to enhance the effectiveness of the rate channel of monetary transmission. A number of measures were taken by the Reserve Bank to enable the exit of non-bank participants from the call money market in a gradual manner. Instruments such as market repo (repo outside the Reserve Banks LAF) and collateralised borrowing and lending obligation (CBLO) introduced in 2003, through the Clear ing Cor poration of India Limited (CCIL), enabled smooth migration of non-bank participants from the uncollateralised call money segment to the collateralised segments. The collateralised market is now the predominant segment of the money market with a share of around 70 per cent in total volume during 2006-07. This also provided an alternative avenue for banks to park their surplus funds beyond one day. Fur ther more, this was facilitated by the standardisation of accounting practices, broad-basing of eligibility criteria in the collateralised markets, exemption of CBLO from the CRR requirements and anonymity provided by the order matching systems in the CBLO mar ket. Moreover, minimum maturity period for CPs (October 2004) and CDs (April 2005) were shortened from 15 days to 7 days. These developments helped in the smooth transformation of the call money market into a pure inter-bank market in August 2005. 3.94 Availability of alternative avenues (such as the market repo and CBLO) for deploying short-term funds by market participants has also enabled the alignment of other money market rates with the informal interest rate corridor of reverse repo and repo rates under the LAF. Accordingly, although the call rate has at times breached the corridor, the weighted average overnight rate moved largely within the informal corridor set by LAF rates (Chart III.4). 3.95 To sum up, various policy initiatives by the Reserve Bank in terms of widening of market-based instruments and shortening of maturities of various instruments have not only helped in promoting market integration but also enabled better liquidity management and transmission of policy signals by the Reserve Bank. Following the recommendations of the Technical Group on Money Market (2005), the Reserve Banks focus on the money market has been on encouraging the growth of the collateralised market, developing a rupee yield curve and providing avenues for better risk management by market participants. 91

Chart III.4: Overnight Interest Rates

Per cent

Aug-04

Aug-05

Dec-04

Dec-05

Aug-06

Dec-06

Feb-05

Feb-06

Apr-04

Jun-04

Jun-05

Jun-06

Apr-05

Market Repo (Non-RBI) Average Call Money

Reverse Repo CBLO Repo

V.

MONEY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS MID-1980s ONWARDS

3.96 As discussed earlier, the Vaghul Working Group (1987) recommended several measures for widening and deepening the money market. Some of the major recommendations, inter alia, included (i) activating existing instruments and introducing new instruments to suit the changing requirements of borrowers and lenders; (ii) freeing interest rates on money market instruments; and (iii) creating an active secondary market through establishing, wherever necessary, a new set of institutions to impart sufficient liquidity to the system. The Committee on the Financial System, 1991 (Chairman: Shri M. Narasimham) further recommended phased rationalisation of the CRR for the development of the money market. Second generation reforms in the money market commenced when the Committee on Banking Sector Reforms, 1998 (Chairman: Shri M. Narasimham) recommended measures to facilitate the emergence of a proper interest rate structure reflecting the differences in liquidity, maturity and risk. 3.97 In pursuance of the recommendations of the two committees, a comprehensive set of measures was undertaken by the Reserve Bank to develop the money market. These included (i) withdrawal of interest rate ceilings in the money market; (ii) introduction of auctions in Treasury Bills; (iii) abolition of ad hoc Treasury Bills; (iv) gradual move away from the cash credit system to a loan-based system; (v) relaxation in the issuance restrictions and subscription

Apr-06

Feb-07

Oct-04

Oct-05

Oct-06

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 3.3: Activity in Money Market Segments

(Rupees crore) Average Daily Turnover # Year Call Money Market Market Repo (Outside the LAF) Collateralised Borrowing and Lending Obligation (CBLO) 4 30 515 6,697 20,039 32,390 Term Money Market Outstanding Amount Commercial Paper Certificates of Deposit

1 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

2 22,709 26,500 23,161 32,157 35,144 29,421 17,191 14,170 17,979 21,725

3 6,895 10,500 30,161 46,960 10,435 17,135 21,183 33,676

5 195 341 519 526 833 1,012

6 2,806 4,514 7,014 6,751 7,927 8,268 7,835 11,723 17,285 21,314

7 9,349 6,876 1,908 1,199 949 1,224 3,212 6,052 27,298 64,814

# : Turnover is twice the single leg volumes in case of call money and CBLO to capture borrowing and lending both, and four times in case of market repo (outside LAF) to capture the borrowing and lending in the two legs of a repo.

nor ms in the case of many money mar ket instr uments; (vi) introduction of new financial instruments; (vii) widening of participation in the money market; and (viii) development of a secondary market. All these policy measures have helped in developing the money market significantly over the years as reflected in the volumes and turnover in various market segments (Table 3.3). Call/Notice Money Market 3.98 Prior to the mid-1980s, as discussed earlier, the market participants heavily depended on the call money market for meeting their funding requirements. However, inherent volatility in the market impeded efficient price discovery, thereby hampering the conduct of monetary policy. Against this backdrop, the Chakravar ty Committee (1985) recommended activation of the Treasury Bills market (with the discount rate being market related) to reduce dependence on the call money market and abolish ceilings on the call rate along with permitting more institutional participation to widen the market base. The Vaghul Committee, in view of the continued existence of an unaligned overall interest rate structure, recommended abolition of the ceiling interest rate on the call money market. However, it
10

held the view that the call money market should continue to remain a strictly inter-bank market (barring LIC and the erstwhile UTI which could continue as lenders only) and recommended the setting up of a Finance House of India to impart liquidity to shortterm money market instruments. 3.99 The reforms commenced with the setting up of an institution, viz., the Discount and Finance House of India (DFHI) in 1988 as a money market institution to impart liquidity to money market instruments. Interest rate in the call money market was deregulated with the withdrawal of the ceiling rate with respect to DFHI from October 1988 and with respect to the call money market in May 1989. Although the Vaghul Committee had recommended that call/notice money should be restricted to banks only, the Reserve Bank favoured the widening of the call/notice money market. In the absence of adequate avenues for deployment of short-term surpluses by non-bank institutions, a large number of non-bank participants such as FIs, mutual funds, insurance companies and corporates were allowed to lend in the call/notice money market, although their operations were required to be routed through the PDs from March 199510 . In this context, PDs and banks were permitted to both lend and borrow in the market. The Reserve Bank exempted

Satellite Dealers (SDs) were also allowed to operate in the call/notice money market until they were phased out from May 2002.

92

MONEY MARKET

inter-bank liabilities from the maintenance of CRR/ SLR (except for the statutory minimum) effective April 1997 with a view to imparting stability to the call money market. 3.100 The Narsimham Committee (1998), however, noted that the money market continued to remain lopsided, thin and extremely volatile. While the nonbank participation was a source of comfort, it had not led to the development of a stable market with depth and liquidity. The non-bank participants, unlike banks, were not subjected to reserve requirements and the call/notice money market was characterised by predominant lenders and chronic borrowers causing heavy gyrations in the market. There was also over-reliance of banks in the call/notice money segment, thereby impeding the development of other segments of the money market. The Reserve Bank also did not have any effective presence in the market and operated with pre-determined lines of refinance. As interest rates in other money market segments move in tandem with the inter-bank call money rate, the volatility in the call segment inhibited proper risk management and pricing of instruments. Thus, freeing of interest rates did not result in a welldefined yield curve (Box III.5). Furthermore, banks role in the money market was further impaired by the health of their own balance sheets, lack of integrated treasury management and sound assetliability management. 3.101 The Narasimham Committee (1998) made several recommendations to further develop the money market. First, it reiterated the need to make the call/notice money market a strictly inter-bank market, with PDs being the sole exception, as they perform the key function of equilibrating the call money market and are formally treated as banks for the purpose of inter-bank transactions. Second, it recommended prudential limits beyond which banks should not be allowed to rely on the call money market. The access to the call money market should only be for meeting unforeseen fund mismatches rather than for regular financing needs. Third, the Reserve Banks operations in the money market need to be market-based through LAF repos and reverse repo auctions, which would determine the corridor for the market. Fourth, non-bank participants could be provided free access to rediscounting of bills, CP, CDs, Treasury Bills and money market mutual funds. 3.102 Following the recommendations of the Reserve Banks Internal Working Group (1997) and 93

the Narasimham Committee (1998), steps were taken to refor m the call money mar ket by transforming it into a pure inter-bank market in a phased manner. The corporates, which were allowed to route their transactions through PDs, were phased out by end-June 2001. The non-banks exit was implemented in four stages beginning May 2001 whereby limits on lending by non-banks were progressively reduced along with the operationalisation of negotiated dealing system (NDS) and CCIL until their complete withdrawal in August 2005. In order to create avenues for deployment of funds by non-banks following their phased exit from the call money market, several new instruments were created such as market repos and CBLO. Maturities of other existing instruments such as CPs and CDs were also gradually shortened in order to align the maturity structure to facilitate the emergence of a rupee yield curve. The Reserve Bank has been modulating liquidity conditions through OMOs (including LAF), MSS and refinance operations which, along with stipulations of minimum average daily reserve maintenance requirements, have imparted stability to the call money market. 3.103 Despite these refor ms, however, the behaviour of banks in the call market has not been uniform. There are still some banks, such as foreign and new private sector banks, which are chronic borrowers and public sector banks, which are the lenders. Notwithstanding excessive dependence of some banks on the call money market, the shortterm money markets are characterised by high degree of stability. The Reserve Bank has instituted a series of prudential measures and placed limits on borrowings and lendings of banks and PDs in the call/notice market to minimise the default risk and bring about a balanced development of various market segments. In order to improve transparency and strengthen efficiency in the money market, it was made mandatory for all NDS members to report all their call/notice money market transactions through NDS within 15 minutes of conclusion of the transaction. The Reser ve Bank and the market participants have access to this information on a faster frequency and in a more classified manner, which has improved the transparency and the price discovery process. Furthermore, a screen-based negotiated quote-driven system for all dealings in the call/notice and the term money markets (NDSCALL), developed by CCIL, was operationalised on September 18, 2006 to br ing about increased transparency and better price discovery in these segments. Although the dealing on this platform is

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Box III.5 Development of a Short-Term Yield Curve Some Issues

The existence of a wide, deep and liquid money market is critical for the development of a smooth yield curve, which facilitates the conduct of monetary policy. As money market determines the cost of liquidity and anchors the short-end of the yield curve, the development of a deep and liquid money market is imperative for the emergence of a yield curve which would credibly transmit monetary policy signals. In this regard, the Reserve Bank has taken several measures since the mid-1990s to develop a shortterm yield cur ve with deep liquidity. These are: (i) exempting inter-bank liabilities from the maintenance of CRR; (ii) operationalising the LAF whereby the reverse repo and repo rates are used as policy instruments to modulate liquidity conditions and stabilise call rates within the LAF corridor; (iii) transforming the call money market into a pure inter-bank market by phasing out the nonbank lenders; (iv) developing other market segments with adequate access for non-banks; (v) developing a relatively vibrant non-RBI repo market; and (vi) developing the CBLO market as yet another instrument of overnight borrowing/lending facility. Notwithstanding these initiatives, a short-term yield curve which is readily amenable for policy purposes is yet to emerge. In this regard, the single largest impediment for the emergence of a short-term yield curve has been the non-existence of a vibrant and liquid term-money market, mainly due to the inability of market participants to build long-term interest rate expectations, skewed distribution of market liquidity, reduction in the minimum maturity period of term deposits of banks, and tendency on the part of banks to deploy their surplus funds in LAF auctions rather than in the term money market. As a result, the yield curve has been flattening in recent years; it even remained inverted for a very brief period. For instance, the absor ption of liquidity through sterilisation operations had led the call rates and the cutoff yield on 91-day Treasury Bills to edge above the yield of 364-day Treasury Bills, leading to an inversion of a segment of the yield curve for a few days in October 2003. The prolonged flattening of the yield curve has, however, been influenced by structural factors such as considerable softening of yields due to dismantling of administered interest rate regime, favourable inflationary expectations and excess liquidity in the wake of capital flows. The moderation in yields has also been suppor ted by rationalisation of small savings interest rates administered by the Government. The stickiness of the reverse repo/repo rate could also have contributed to the flattened yield curve. Maintaining the reverse repo/repo rate at the unchanged level for an extended period of time could have also led to distor tions in the term structure of interest rates. This can be understood by the fact that while the 10-year gilt yield declined by 257 basis points during May 2002 to April 2004, the reverse repo rate declined by only 150 basis points while call money rates declined by 180 basis points during the same period. These structural factors appeared to have contributed to the flattening of the yield cur ve. Owing to these distortions, the Indian yield curve does not fully reflect the mar ket expectations on inflation and growth prospects. An important objective of money market reforms by the Reserve Bank in recent years has been to facilitate transparency in transactions in order to reduce transactions cost and improve price discovery. The Clearing Corporation of India Limited (CCIL), by providing for guaranteed settlement of all trades, ensures prevention of gr id-lock in financial transactions. Furthermore, the introduction of CBLO by the CCIL in January 2003 and operationalisation of an order matching (OM) anonymous trading screen has made trading transparent and on a real time basis, thereby making the money market more efficient. In order to further enhance transparency in the money market, screen-based trading through the NDS-CALL was operationalised in September 2006. The full implementation of the real time gross settlement (RTGS) would further aid this process by contributing to systemic stability. Notwithstanding considerable progress, a proper shortterm yield curve, which facilitates the transmission of monetary policy signals and provides a benchmark for the pricing of other short-term debt instruments, is yet to emerge fully. In this regard, the constant interaction between the Reserve Bank and market par ticipants through frequent meetings, speeches, interviews, press releases and publications is progressively expected to mute the sur prise element of monetar y policy and facilitate the process of formation of market expectations, which would increasingly get captured in the yield curve.

optional, 85 banks and 7 PDs have taken membership of NDS-CALL. 3.104 Various reform measures over the years have imparted stability to the call money market. It has witnessed orderly conditions (barring a few episodes 94

of volatility) and provided the necessary platform for the Reserve Bank to conduct its monetary policy. The behaviour of call rates has, histor ically, been influenced by liquidity conditions in the market. Call rates touched a peak of about 35 per cent in May 1992, reflecting tight liquidity on account of high levels

MONEY MARKET

of statutory pre-emptions and withdrawal of all refinance facilities, barring export credit refinance. After some softness, call rates again came under pressure to touch 35 per cent in November 1995, partly reflecting turbulence in the foreign exchange market. The Reserve Bank supplied liquidity through repos and enhanced refinance facilities while reducing the CRR to stabilise the market. After softening to a single digit level, the rate hardened again to touch 29 per cent in January 1998, reflecting mopping up of liquidity by the Reser ve Bank to ease foreign exchange market pressure. Barring these episodes of volatility, call rates remained generally stable in the 1990s. After the adoption of the LAF in June 2000, the call rate eased significantly to a low of 4.5 per cent in September 2004, reflecting improved liquidity in the system following increased capital inflows. However, it came under some pressure in December 2005 on account of IMD redemptions and increased to about 7 per cent in February 2007, partly due to 11 monetary tightening (Chart III.5) . With the institution of LAF and consequent improvement in liquidity management by the Reserve Bank, the volatility in call rates has come down significantly compared to the earlier periods. The mean rate has almost halved from around 11 per cent during April 1993-March 1996 to about 6 per cent during April 2000-March 2007.
Chart III.5: Call Money Rate

Volatility, measured by coefficient of variation (CV) of call rates, also halved from 0.6 to 0.3 over the same period. Thus, while statutory pre-emptions like CRR and SLR, and reserve maintenance period were the main factors that influenced call rates in the pre-reform period, it is the developments in other market segments, mainly the foreign exchange and the government securities market along with the Reserve Banks liquidity management operations that have been the main driver of call rates in the post-reform period. This signifies increased market integration and improved liquidity management by the Reserve Bank. 3.105 With the transformation of the call money market into a pure inter-bank market, the turnover in the call/notice money mar ket has declined significantly. The activity has migrated to other overnight collateralised market segments such as market repo and CBLO. The daily average turnover in the call money market, which was Rs.35,144 crore in 2001-02, declined to Rs.14,170 crore in 2004-05 before increasing again to Rs.21,725 crore during 2006-07. The recent rise in call money market turnover reflects the general tendency of heightened market activity following the imbalance between growth in bank credit and bank deposits in recent years against the backdrop of sustained pick-up in non-food credit. Term Money Market 3.106 The term money market is another segment of the uncollateralised money market. The maturity period in this segment ranges from 15 days to one year. The term money market has been somewhat dormant in India. It was also a strictly regulated market up to the late 1980s with the ceiling rates of interest (10.5-11.5 per cent) across the various maturity buckets. Historically, statutory pre-emptions on interbank liabilities, regulated interest rate structure, cash credit system of financing, high degree of volatility in the call money rates, availability of sector-specific refinance, inadequate asset liability management (ALM) discipline among banks and scarcity of money market instruments of varying maturities were cited as the main factors that inhibited the development of the term money market. 3.107 In order to activate the term money market, several policy measures were taken by the Reserve

Per cent

Nov-67

Jul-83

May-91

Dec-63

Oct-71

Apr-95

Jan-60

Sep-75

Jun-87

Feb-03

11

Call money rate hardened during the second half of March 2007 (averaging about 20 per cent), reflecting tight liquidity conditions on account of advance tax outflows, year-end considerations, sustained credit demand and asymmetric distribution of government securities holdings across banks.

Mar-99

Jan-07

Aug-79

95

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Bank. In pursuance of the Vaghul Working Groups recommendations, the administered interest rate system in this market was dismantled in 1989. In order to promote this segment, the par ticipation was widened by allowing select financial institutions in 1993 to borrow from the term money market for a maturity period of 3-6 months. Term money of original maturity between 15 days and 1 year was exempted from the CRR in August 2001. Furthermore, no limits were stipulated for transactions in the term money market, unlike under the call/notice money market. 3.108 Despite various reforms, the average daily turnover in this segment continues to be quite low. It increased moderately from Rs.195 crore in 2001-02 to Rs.1,012 crore during 2006-07. The factors still hindering the development of this segment of the money market include: (i) the inability of participants to build interest rate expectations over the mediumterm due to which there is a tendency on their part to lock themselves in the short-term; (ii) the distribution of liquidity is also skewed with public sector banks often having surplus funds and foreign banks being in deficit in respect of short-term resources. Since the deficit banks depend heavily on call/notice money, more often, surplus banks exhaust their exposure limits to them; (iii) cor porates overwhelming preference for cash credit system rather than loan generally forces banks to deploy a large amount in the call/notice money market rather than in the term money mar ket to meet sudden demand from corporates; (iv) the steady reduction in the minimum maturity period of term deposits offered by banks; and (v) the tendency on the part of banks to deploy their surplus funds in LAF auctions rather than in the term money market, reflecting risk-averse behaviour. 3.109 It is widely accepted that the banking sector needs a deep and liquid term money market for managing its liquidity as also a smoother rupee yield curve. The recent reform measures such as the phasing out of non-banks from the call/notice money market and institution of prudential call/notice money exposure limits for banks and PDs are expected to switch market participants to other market segments. The development of an efficient repo market could provide benchmarks to all fixed income segments, including the term money market. In order to improve transparency, strengthen efficiency and facilitate a better price discovery process in the term money market, the Technical Group on Money Market recommended that term money transactions should also be conducted on a screen-based negotiated quote driven platform. 96

Market Repos 3.110 Repo (Repurchase Agreement) instruments enable collateralised short-term borrowing through the selling of debt instruments. Under a repo transaction, the security is sold with an agreement to repurchase it at a pre-determined date and rate. Reverse repo is a mirror image of repo and represents the acquisition of a security with a simultaneous commitment to resell. 3.111 In developed financial markets, repurchase agreements (repos) are recognised as a very useful money mar ket instr ument enabling smooth adjustment of shor t-term liquidity among varied categories of market participants such as banks, financial institutions, securities and investment firms. Compared with pure call/notice/ter m money transaction, which is non-collateralised, repo is fully collateralised by securities, thereby offering greater flexibility and minimising default risk. Furthermore, repo has several advantages over other collateralised instruments also. One, while obtaining titles to securities in other collateralised lending instruments is a time-consuming and uncer tain process, repo entails instantaneous legal transfer of ownership of the eligible securities. Two, it helps to promote greater integration between the money and the government securities markets, thereby creating a more continuous yield curve. Additionally, repo can also be used to facilitate Gover nments cash management (Gray, 1998). Central banks all over the world also use repo as a very powerful and flexible money market instrument for modulating market liquidity. Since it is a market-based instrument, it serves the purpose of an indirect instrument of monetary policy at the short-end of the yield curve. 3.112 Since forward trading in securities was generally prohibited in India, repos were permitted under regulated conditions in terms of participants and instruments. Refor ms in this market have encompassed both institutions and instruments. Both banks and non-banks were allowed in the market. All government securities and PSU bonds were eligible for repos till April 1988. Between April 1988 and midJune 1992, only inter-bank repos were allowed in all gover nment secur ities. Double ready forward transactions were part of the repos market throughout this period. Subsequent to the irregularities in securities transactions that surfaced in April 1992, repos were banned in all securities, except Treasury Bills, while double ready forward transactions were prohibited altogether. Repos were permitted only among banks and PDs. In order to reactivate the repos

MONEY MARKET

market, the Reserve Bank gradually extended repos facility to all Central Government dated securities, Treasury Bills and State Government securities. It is mandatory to actually hold the securities in the portfolio before undertaking repo operations. In order to activate the repo market and promote transparency, the Reserve Bank introduced regulatory safeguards such as delivery versus payments (DvP) system during 1995-96. The Reserve Bank allowed all nonbank entities maintaining subsidiary general ledger (SGL) account to participate in this money market segment. Furthermore, non-bank financial companies, mutual funds, housing finance companies and insurance companies not holding SGL accounts were also allowed by the Reserve Bank to undertake repo transactions from March 2003, through their gilt accounts maintained with custodians. With the increasing use of repos in the wake of phased exit of non-banks from the call money market, the Reserve Bank issued comprehensive uniform accounting guidelines as well as documentation policy in March 2003. Moreover, the DvP III mode of settlement in government securities (which involves settlement of securities and funds on a net basis) in April 2004 facilitated the introduction of rollover of repo transactions in government securities and provided flexibility to market participants in managing their collaterals. 3.113 The operationalisation of the Negotiated Dealing System (NDS) and the Clearing Corporation of India Ltd. (CCIL) combined with prudential limits on borrowing and lending in the call/notice market for banks also helped in the development of market repos. Reflecting this, the average daily turnover of repo transactions (other than the Reserve Bank) increased sharply from Rs.11,311 crore during April 2001 to Rs. 42,252 crore in June 2006 in line with the phasing out of non-banks from the call/notice money market a process which was completed by August 2005. Subsequently, the turnover in this segment became subdued. In this segment, mutual funds and some foreign banks are the major providers of funds, while some foreign banks, private sector banks and primary dealers are the major borrowers. Collateralised Borrowing and Lending Obligations (CBLO) 3.114 The CBLOs were operationalised as a money market instrument by the CCIL on January 20, 2003. The product was introduced with the objective of providing an alternative avenue for managing shortterm liquidity to the market participants who were restricted and/or phased out of the call money market. The mar ket was quick to reap the benefits of 97

anonymous trading system. Mutual funds and cooperative banks were the main beneficiaries of this scheme. The anonymous, order-driven and online matching system was a milestone in the Indian debt market. 3.115 With the transformation of the call money market into a pure inter-bank market (with PDs) since August 2005 and imposition of prudential limits on borrowing/lending by banks and PDs in the call money market, the activity has migrated to the CBLO segment as it enables market participants to manage their shortterm liquidity. Accordingly, the average daily turnover in the CBLO segment increased from Rs.515 crore in 2003-04 to Rs.32,390 crore during 2006-07. The increase in turnover could be attributed partly to the increase in the number of participants from 30 in July 2003 to 153 by March 2007. The composition of market participants has undergone changes with mutual funds and insurance companies emerging as the major lenders in the CBLO market, while nationalised banks, PDs and non-financial companies as the major borrowers during 2006-07. Thus, the CBLO and the market repo (the collateralised segment) have now emerged as the predominant money market segments with a combined share of nearly 70 per cent of the total turnover in 2006-07. 3.116 As borrowings in the CBLO segment are fully collateralised, the rates in this segment are expected to be comparable with the repo rates. The movements in the daily average rates in the overnight call, the repo and the CBLO markets for the period from January 2003 to March 2007 show that CBLO rates moved between the call and the repo rates up to November 2003 due to a limited number of participants. From November 2003, the CBLO rates have aligned with the repo rates on account of increase in the number of par ticipants. The transparent nature and real time basis of deals in the CBLO segment have helped in enhancing efficiency of the money market. Treasury Bills 3.117 In India, prior to the institution of reforms, the 91-day Treasur y Bills were sold on tap at an administered rate of discount, which was fixed at 4.6 per cent from July 1974. They, however, could not emerge as a useful money market instrument due to the administered nature of interest rates, which reflected the perspective of the issuer rather than the buyer. A reform process in this segment started with the introduction of 182-day Treasury Bills from November 1986. This was followed by the phasing

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

out of tap Treasury Bills and an introduction of auctioning system in 91-day Treasury Bills. The institution of DFHI as a money market institution along with other steps taken to develop the market created the ground for the emergence of 91-day Treasury Bills as an important market segment. Treasury Bills with 364-day maturity were introduced in April 1992 and tendered through auction-deter mined rates of discount. Subsequently, 91-day Treasury Bills were introduced on an auction basis in January 1993. There was also a system of 91-day ad hoc Treasury Bills, which were issued by the Central Government to the Reserve Bank with a de jure objective of bridging temporary mismatches. De facto, however, they turned out to be a permanent source of meeting Central Gover nments resource requirement through monetisation of fiscal deficit. A major reform occurred in April 1997, when the system of ad hoc Treasury Bills was abolished and 14-day intermediate Treasury Bills and auction bills were introduced to enable better cash management by the Government and to provide alternative avenues of investments to the State Governments and some foreign central banks. Thus, Treasury Bills of different tenors were introduced to consolidate the market for imparting liquidity, while yields were made market determined through auctions for their use as a benchmark for other short-term market instruments. 3.118 The Reserve Bank now auctions 91-day Treasury Bills on a weekly basis and 182-day Treasury Bills (re-introduced in April 2005) and 364-day Treasury Bills on a fortnightly basis on behalf of the Central Government. Treasury Bills market being at the heart of money market development, the Reserve Bank has been paying special attention to this market segment. The amounts earmarked for auctions are pre-announced and bids received from noncompetitive bidders have been kept outside the notified amount since April 1998. The dates of payment are synchronised on the following Friday after the auctions with a view to providing fungible stock of varying maturities and to activate the secondary market in Treasury Bills. To impart liquidity to Treasury Bills and also to enable investors to acquire these bills in between the auctions, primary dealers (PDs) quote their bid daily and offer discount rates. 3.119 In view of the limited stock of government securities with the Reserve Bank, which constrained outright OMOs for sterilisation purposes, Treasury Bills were made eligible for issuance under the MSS. The notified amount of Treasury Bills issued under the MSS has varied during the year keeping in view 98

the prevailing liquidity conditions. The primary market yields of Treasury Bills edged higher during 2005-06 mirroring the liquidity conditions as well as movements in LAF rates. The hardening of primary yields since September 2005 mainly reflects liquidity tightening due to festival demand for cash, quarterly advance tax outflows and IMD redemption on December 29, 2005 and strong credit demand (Chart III.6). Thus, Treasury Bills have not only served the Government in their cash management, but have also been effectively used for sterilisation purposes under the MSS. The persistent use of these instruments for sterilisation, however, could undermine their role as benchmarks for other money market instruments. 3.120 The Reserve Bank has been modifying the notified amounts for auctioning of Treasury Bills in tune with the evolving liquidity conditions. Reflecting the relatively tight liquidity conditions during 200607, the bid-cover ratios have generally declined, especially in respect of 91-day and 182-day Treasury Bills (Table 3.4). Commercial Paper 3.121 Commercial Paper (CP) is issued in the form of a promissory note sold directly by the issuers to investors, or else placed by the borrowers through agents such as merchant banks and security houses. When it is issued by corporate borrowers directly to investors in the money market and by the process of securitisation, the intermediation function of the bank is obviated. CP was introduced in India in January
Chart III.6: Yields on Treasury Bills

Per cent 02-May-01 20-Aug-01 12-Dec-01 03-Apr-02 24-Jul-02 13-Nov-02 05-Mar-03 25-Jun-03 15-Oct-03 04-Feb-04 26-May-04 15-Sep-04 05-Jan-05 27-Apr-05 17-Aug-05 07-Dec-05 29-Mar-06 19-Jul-06 08-Nov-06 28-Feb-07

Date of Auction 364-day 91-day Reverse Repo Rate

MONEY MARKET

Table 3.4: Treasury Bills Primary Market

Month Notified Amount (Rupees crore) Average Implicit Yield at Minimum Cut-off Price (Per cent) 91-day 1 2005-06 April May June July August September October November December January February March 2006-07 April May June July August September October November December January February March 2 19,000 15,000 18,500 11,500 21,000 23,000 15,000 11,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 6,500 5,000 18,500 15,000 16,500 19,000 15,000 15,000 18,500 15,000 19,000 15,000 15,000 3 5.17 5.19 5.29 5.46 5.23 5.24 5.50 5.76 5.89 6.25 6.63 6.51 5.52 5.70 6.14 6.42 6.41 6.51 6.63 6.65 7.01 7.28 7.72 7.68 182-day 4 5.36 5.35 5.37 5.67 5.42 5.37 5.71 5.85 6.00 6.22 6.74 6.66 5.87 6.07 6.64 6.75 6.70 6.76 6.84 6.92 7.27 7.45 7.67 7.98 364-day 5 5.62 5.58 5.61 5.81 5.63 5.70 5.84 5.96 6.09 6.21 6.78 6.66 5.98 6.34 6.77 7.03 6.96 6.91 6.95 6.99 7.09 7.39 7.79 7.90 91-day 6 4.03 3.30 1.54 1.21 3.07 1.52 1.69 2.12 3.07 2.86 3.04 4.17 5.57 1.88 1.63 1.82 2.03 1.35 1.31 1.33 1.19 1.02 2.48 2.08 Average Bid-Cover Ratio* 182-day 7 4.48 3.37 2.42 1.79 2.68 1.45 1.53 1.92 2.97 2.83 2.07 3.43 4.96 1.84 1.35 1.55 2.71 1.80 1.20 1.22 1.29 1.35 2.56 2.15 364-day 8 2.54 2.29 1.81 1.68 2.54 1.61 3.44 2.30 2.36 2.72 2.71 3.36 2.02 1.69 2.11 3.12 3.48 2.92 2.02 2.49 3.34 1.74 3.16 3.87

* : Ratio of competitive bids amount received (BR) to notified amount (NA). Note : 1. 182-day Treasury Bills were re-introduced with effect from April 6, 2005. 2. Notified amount is inclusive of issuances under the MSS.

1990, in pursuance of the Vaghul Committees recommendations, in order to enable highly rated nonbank corporate borrowers to diversify their sources of shor t-ter m borrowings and also provide an additional instrument to investors. CP could carry an interest rate coupon but is generally sold at a discount. Since CP is freely transferable, banks, financial institutions, insurance companies and others are able to invest their short-term surplus funds in a highly liquid instrument at attractive rates of return. 3.122 The terms and conditions relating to issuing CPs such as eligibility, maturity periods and modes of issue have been gradually relaxed over the years by the Reserve Bank. The minimum tenor has been brought down to seven days (by October 2004) in stages and the minimum size of individual issue as well as individual investment has also been reduced to Rs. 5 lakh with a view to aligning it with other money market instruments. The limit of CP issuance was first 99

carved out of the maximum permissible bank finance (MPBF) limit and subsequently only to its cash credit portion. A major reform to impart a measure of independence to the CP market took place when the stand-by facility of the restoration of the cash credit limit and guaranteeing funds to the issuer on maturity of the paper was withdrawn in October 1994. As the reduction in the cash credit portion of the MPBF impeded the development of the CP market, the issuance of CP was delinked from the cash credit limit in October 1997. It was converted into a stand alone product from October 2000 so as to enable the issuers of the services sector to meet short-term working capital requirements. Banks were allowed to fix working capital limits after taking into account the resource pattern of the companies finances, including CPs. Cor porates, PDs and all-India financial institutions (FIs) under specified stipulations have been permitted to raise short-term resources by the Reserve Bank through the issue of CPs. There is no

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

lock-in period for CPs. Furthermore, guidelines were issued per mitting investments in CPs only in dematerialised form effective June 30, 2001 which has enabled a reduction in the transaction cost. In order to rationalise and standardise, wherever possible, various aspects of processing, settlement and documentation of CP issuance, several measures were under taken with a view to achieving the settlement on a T+1 basis. For further deepening the market, the Reserve Bank issued draft guidelines on securitisation of standard assets on April 4, 2005. Accordingly, the reporting of CP issuance by issuing and paying agents (IPAs) on NDS platfor m commenced effective April 16, 2005. The FCAC observed that CPs being short-term instruments, any unlimited opening up of issuance could have implications for short-term debt flows. It, therefore, recommended for prudential limits even under full convertibility. 3.123 The issuance of CP has generally been observed to be inversely related to call money rates. Activity in the CP market reflects the state of market liquidity as its issuances tend to rise amidst ample liquidity conditions when companies can raise funds through CPs at an effective rate of discount lower than the lending rate of banks. Banks also prefer investing in CPs during credit downswing as the CP rate works out higher than the call rate. Thus, the average outstanding amount of CPs declined from Rs.2,280 crore during 1993-94 to Rs.442 crore during 1995-96 amidst tight liquidity but moved up to Rs.17,285 crore during 2005-06. It increased further to Rs.21,314 crore during 2006-07. Leasing and finance companies continue to be the predominant issuers of CPs. Discount rates on CPs have firmed up in line with the increases in policy rates during 2005-06 and 2006-07 (Chart III.7). Certificates of Deposit 3.124 In order to widen the range of money market instr uments and provide greater flexibility to investors for deploying their shor t-term surplus funds, certificates of deposit (CDs) were introduced in June 1989. They are essentially securitised shortterm time deposits issued by banks and all-India financial institutions during periods of tight liquidity, at relatively higher discount rates as compared to term deposits. The guidelines concerning CDs have also been relaxed over time. These include (i) freeing of CDs from interest rate regulation in 1992; (ii) lowering the minimum maturity period of CDs issued by banks to 7 days (April 2005) with a view to aligning 100

Chart III.7: Commercial Paper

Rupees crore

Outstanding Amount

the minimum tenor for CPs and CDs as recommended by the Narasimham Committee (1998); (iii) permitting select all-India financial institutions to issue CDs for a maturity period of 1 to 3 years; (iv) abolishing limits to CD issuances as a certain proportion of average fortnightly outstanding aggregate deposits effective October 16, 1993 with a view to enabling it as a mar ket deter mined instrument; (v) reducing the minimum issuance size from Rs. 1 crore in 1989 to Rs. 1 lakh in June 2002; (vi) withdrawal of restriction on minimum period for transferability with a view to providing flexibility and depth to the secondary market activity; (vii) requiring banks and FIs to issue CDs only in dematerialised form, effective June 30, 2002, in order to impart more transparency and encourage secondary market; and (viii) permitting banks in October 2002 to issue floating rate CDs as a coupon bearing instrument so as to promote flexible pricing in this instrument. The FCAC Committee recommended for prudential limits on opening up CDs even under full convertibility. 3.125 Activity in the CD market also mirrors liquidity conditions but unlike CPs, the CD issuances by banks and FIs pick up during periods of tight liquidity. For instance, the average outstanding amount of CDs rose from Rs.8,266 crore during 1992-93 to Rs.14,045 crore during 1995-96. It further increased to Rs.21,503 crore in June 1996 reflecting the credit pick-up. Another phase of tight liquidity during the East Asian crisis led to increased market activity in this segment.

15-Apr-93 30-Nov-93 15-Jul-94 28-Feb-95 15-Oct-95 31-May-96 15-Jan-97 31-Aug-97 15-Apr-98 30-Nov-98 15-Jul-99 29-Feb-00 15-Oct-00 31-May-01 15-Jan-02 31-Aug-02 15-Apr-03 30-Nov-03 15-Jul-04 28-Feb-05 15-Oct-05 31-May-06 15-Jan-07

Average Discount Rate (right scale)

Per cent

MONEY MARKET

Chart III.8: Certificates of Deposit

Table 3.5: Volatility in Money Market Rates

April 1993March 1996 2 11.1 6.7 0.6 13.4 2.6 0.2 12.2 2.2 0.2 April 1996March 2000 3 8.0 3.7 0.5 11.7 2.2 0.2 11.6 2.4 0.2 April 2000March 2007 4 6.3 1.9 0.3 7.8 1.8 0.2 6.9 1.7 0.2 6.5 1.4 0.2 5.4 1.1 0.2 5.3 1.1 0.2

Item 1 Call Money Average (Per cent) SD CV Commercial Paper Average (Per cent) SD CV

Rupees crore

Per cent

02-Apr-93 29-Oct-93 27-May-94 23-Dec-94 21-Jul-95 16-Feb-96 27-Sep-96 25-Apr-97 21-Nov-97 19-Jun-98 15-Jan-99 13-Aug-99 10-Mar-00 06-Oct-00 04-May-01 30-Nov-01 28-Jun-02 24-Jan-03 22-Aug-03 19-Mar-04 15-Oct-04 13-May-05 09-Dec-05 07-Jul-06 02-Feb-07

Certificates of Deposit Average (Per cent) SD CV Term Money @ Average (Per cent) SD CV Market Repo* Average (Per cent) SD CV CBLO* Average (Per cent) SD CV

Outstanding Amount

Average Discount Rate (right scale)

Subsequently, the outstanding amount declined to Rs.949 crore during 2001-02, reflecting the state of easy liquidity on account of large capital inflows. The average outstanding amount of CDs increased again to Rs.64,814 crore during 2006-07 as banks continued to supplement their efforts at deposit mobilisation in order to support the sustained credit demand. Interest rates on CDs softened in recent years in line with other money market instruments, although there was some hardening during 2006-07 (Chart III.8). Volatility in Money Market Segments 3.126 An analysis of the trends in interest rates across the various instruments in the money market brings out the following salient features. First, since the introduction of reforms, all money market rates have witnessed considerable softening commensurate with the progressive reduction in inflation, reflecting lower inflation expectations. Softening of interest rates has also been on account of several other factors such as the deepening of the market through establishment of appropriate market intermediaries, increase in the number of participants, prevalence of comfortable liquidity conditions arising out of large capital inflows and a distinct policy preference for a softer interest rate regime. The volatility in call money rates has reduced after the introduction of LAF and the setting up of an informal corridor of reverse repo and repo rates (Table 3.5). The stability in the overnight money market was further facilitated by introduction of new instruments such as market repo and CBLO. Increased stability in 101

@ : For the period May 2001 to March 2007. * : For the period April 2004-March 2007. SD : Standard Deviation. CV : Coefficient of Variation. Note: Calculated on monthly average data.

call rates and various other reforms have also imparted a degree of stability to other market instruments such as CPs and CDs. The lower volatility is in consonance with the Reserve Banks emphasis on financial stability as a key consideration of monetary policy. Interest Rate Derivatives 3.127 Interest rate deregulation has made financial market operations relatively efficient and cost effective but has also exposed market participants to various risks. This necessitated introduction of derivative instr uments to manage these r isks through unbundling of risks. The derivative contracts can be traded either over-the-counter (OTC) or in stock exchanges (exchange-traded). OTC contracts are traded directly between two eligible parties, with or without the use of an intermediary and without going through the stock exchanges. On the other hand, exchange-traded (ET) derivatives are transacted in stock exchanges as standardised products through screen-based trading.

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

3.128 Derivative trading in India witnessed some activity from July 1999 when the Reserve Bank allowed scheduled commercial banks (excluding Regional Rural Banks), PDs and all-India financial institutions to undertake Forward Rate Agreements (FRA)/Interest Rate Swaps (IRS) for managing interest rate risks in their balance sheets. In order to widen the market, mutual funds were allowed to participate for the purpose of hedging their own balance sheet risks from November 1999. The use of interest rate implied in the foreign exchange forward market as a benchmark, in addition to the domestic money and debt market rates, was permitted from April 2000. The activity gathered momentum after exchange-traded derivatives by way of futures were introduced in Mumbai Stock Exchange (BSE) and National Stock Exchange (NSE) from June 2000. 3.129 Initially, banks/PDs/FIs were permitted to undertake different kinds of plain vanilla products such as FRAs/IRS with tenors ranging from one month to one year. The Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA), 2000 permitted banks to provide risk management tools such as swaps, options, caps, collars and FRAs to clients to hedge interest rate risk arising out of foreign currency liabilities. Even though the derivative transactions have grown significantly in recent years, the market is essentially one of vanilla products. Active participants in the market are also limited, mainly some foreign and private sector banks, PDs and all-India financial institutions. The Reserve Bank allowed banks and PDs to transact in exchange traded interest rate futures (IRFs) from June 2003 to hedge their interest rate risk effectively. While PDs were allowed to hold trading as well as hedging positions in IRFs, banks were allowed only to hedge their underlying government securities [in available for sale (AFS) /held for trading (HFT) category por tfolios] through IRFs. The National Stock Exchange (NSE) introduced futures on a notional 10year government security, a 3-month Treasury Bill rate and a 10-year government zero coupon in June 2003. Activity in the IRF market has, however, not picked up because of valuation problems as also because banks have been allowed only to hedge but not to trade. 3.130 Innovations in OTC derivatives have been limited due to several structural shor tcomings, including lack of clear accounting and disclosure standards, lack of adequate knowledge of uses and risks inherent in derivative transactions, particularly those involving complex str uctures, legal uncertainties surrounding the use of OTC derivatives 102

and uncertainties about regulations with regard to certain complex products. To address these issues, the Reserve Bank constituted a number of working groups. 3.131 The Working Group on Rupee Derivatives (Chairman: Shri Jaspal Bindra), which submitted its Report in January 2003, was set up to suggest the modalities for introducing derivatives having explicit option features such as caps/collars/floors in the rupee derivative segment and also the norms for capital adequacy, exposure limits, swap position, asset liability management, internal control and other risk management methods for these derivatives. Recognising the ambiguity regarding the legality of the OTC derivative contracts as the main factor inhibiting their growth, the Group proposed appropriate amendments in the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934 to provide legality to OTC derivatives. Accordingly, the Union Budget, 2005-06 proposed to take measures to provide clear legal validity to such contracts. The Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934 has since been amended, which now provides legal sanctity to OTC derivatives if at least one of the parties to the transaction is the Reserve Bank or any agency falling under its regulatory purview. 3.132 The Inter nal Wor king Group on Rupee Interest Rate Der ivatives (Chair man: Shr i G. Padmanabhan) recommended the harmonisation of regulations between OTC interest rate derivatives and ET interest rate der ivatives. It also recommended that banks that have adequate internal risk management and control systems and a robust operational framework be permitted to hold trading positions in the interest rate futures (IRF) market. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) revisited the issue pertaining to introduction of new futures contracts in consultation with the Fixed Income Money Mar ket and Der ivatives Association of India (FIMMDA) and permitted trading of interest rate futures contract on an underlying 10year coupon-bearing notional bond from January 5, 2004. The Reserve Bank released comprehensive draft guidelines in December 2006 on derivatives covering broad generic principles for undertaking derivative transactions, management of risk and sound corporate governance requirements. 3.133 Reflecting these measures, the r upee derivative market has grown significantly. FRAs/IRS transactions, in terms of outstanding notional principal amount, rose from Rs.4,249 crore in March 2000 to Rs.21,94,637 crore at end-March 2006.

MONEY MARKET

(ii) Interest Rate Swaps 3.134 In the interest rate swap market, apart from increase in volumes, the market also witnessed emergence of interest rate benchmarks such as Mumbai Inter-Bank Offered Rate (MIBOR), the Mumbai Inter-Bank Forward Offered Rate (MIFOR) (which is a combination of the MIBOR and forward premium) and other multiple benchmarks, which essentially have linkages to the movement in overseas interest rates. MIBOR linked short-term paper up to 365 days, with/without daily call/put options, has emerged as an important instrument which enables top rated corporates to raise funds from non-bank entities, particularly from mutual funds. 3.135 Over night Index Swaps (OIS) help in managing interest rate risk by converting fixed rate receivables to floating and vice versa without taking credit risk as this tool is built on a notional principal. Banks can use this instrument to effectively manage their liquidity by converting their fixed term deposits into floating rate. This instrument is also used for asset liability management and as a positioning tool for putting on carry trades. MIFOR swaps, on the other hand, are used to hedge interest rate risk as well as currency risk by an entity which has exposure to foreign currency borrowing by taking an opposite position in MIFOR swap. 3.136 The 5-year OIS yields rose considerably from around 4.70 per cent in the beginning of January 2004 to about 7.90 per cent on March 28, 2007. The OIS curve steepened during the period from January 2004 to October 2004 with spreads between 1 year and 5 year tenors increasing from 26 basis points (bps) to 140 bps, but later flattened to reach 22 bps by December 8, 2006. Inversion of the curve was obser ved with the spread tur ning negative intermittently between the last week of December

2006 to third week of March 2007. OIS yields are positively correlated to the government securities (GSec) yields. For most part of 2004, OIS curve was above the G-sec curve as it priced in expectations of a turnaround in interest rate cycle. In the absence of short selling, G-Sec markets were unable to price these expectations effectively. Subsequently, as GSec markets reacted to the rising interest rate scenario, the G-Sec yields edged above the OIS curve (Chart III.9). The OIS curve remaining below the GSec curve for a sustained period of time was probably a reflection of the liquidity conditions as swap curves normally stay above the Treasury curve. Thus, during situations of tight liquidity, the OIS - G-Sec spread tends to be narrow. MIFOR (Mumbai Inter-Bank Forward Offered Rate) Swaps 3.137 The yields on MIFOR swaps have risen during the last three years in line with the general increase in interest rates. The 5-year MIFOR swap rate increased from 3.85 per cent at the beginning of January 2004 to 8.16 per cent on March 28, 2007. The MIFOR curve flattened with the 1-year to 5-year spreads steadily declining from a high of 200 bps in the beginning of January 2004 before turning negative from December 2006 to March 2007, it touched (-) 119 bps on March 28, 2007. The MIFOR curve has remained consistently below the G-Sec curve during last three years except from June to August 2004. This was mainly for the reason that MIFOR curve is influenced largely by the implied rupee interest rates in the forward premia, which, in the absence of covered interest parity, tend to diverge from interest rate differential. Between mid-November 2006 and the third week of March 2007, the MIFOR curve was above the G-Sec curve. Five-year MIFOR was above

Chart III.9: OIS and G-Sec Yields

OIS Yields G-Sec and OIS Yields

Per cent

26-Dec-04

21-Dec-05

27-Sep-04

22-Sep-05

17-Sep-06

16-Dec-06

31-Mar-04

26-Mar-05

21-Mar-06

29-Jun-04

24-Jun-05

19-Jun-06

16-Mar-07

01-Jan-04

Per cent

27-Sep-04

22-Sep-05

17-Sep-06

26-Dec-04

21-Dec-05

31-Mar-04

26-Mar-05

21-Mar-06

16-Dec-06

29-Jun-04

24-Jun-05

1-year

2-year

5-year

G-Sec

OIS

103

19-Jun-06

16-Mar-07

01-Jan-04

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Chart III.10: MIFOR SWAP and G-Sec Yields

MIFOR SWAP Yields MIFOR and G-Sec Yields

Per cent

26-Dec-04

21-Dec-05

27-Sep-04

22-Sep-05

17-Sep-06

16-Dec-06

31-Mar-04

26-Mar-05

21-Mar-06

29-Jun-04

24-Jun-05

19-Jun-06

16-Mar-07

01-Jan-04

Per cent

27-Sep-04

22-Sep-05

17-Sep-06

26-Dec-04

21-Dec-05

31-Mar-04

26-Mar-05

21-Mar-06

16-Dec-06

29-Jun-04

24-Jun-05

1-year

2-year

5-year

G-Sec

MIFOR

G-Sec of corresponding tenor by 53 bps as on January 29, 2007 and 28 bps as on February 12, 2007, as forward premia moved up sharply during this period (Chart III.10). Monetary Policy and Swap Rates 3.138 Swap rates generally move in tandem with G-sec yields. Accordingly, whenever there was a hike in the policy rate, all swap rates, viz., OIS and MIFOR generally reacted similarly (Chart III.11). The only exception was on October 25, 2005, when swap rates did not react to the hike in reverse repo rate by 25 bps to 5.25 per cent. This was mainly due to market participants refraining from taking firm positions since the Bank Rate was left unchanged. Furthermore, the market did not perceive the hike in the repo rate by
Chart III.11: Monetary Policy and Swap Rates

25 bps on October 31, 2006 as tightening of monetary policy stance as the reverse repo rate was left unchanged. 3.139 While the introduction of new instruments, including derivatives, has deepened the money market, the market is still not mature enough for complex products. With fuller capital account conver tibility the market par ticipants would be exposed to cer tain risks. Therefore, the fur ther development of hedging instruments such as interest rate futures assumes critical importance. Effective risk management by market participants also calls for access initially to a liquid IRF market and eventually to an interest rate options market, which, in turn, would increase liquidity in the government securities market. As demand for complex derivate products grows over time, there would be a need for banks to lay down appropriate policies for marketing such products to their clients and put in place a mechanism for close monitoring and stricter regulations. Other Money Market Segments (a) Inter-Bank Participation Certificates (IBPCs) 3.140 As an additional instrument for modulating short-term liquidity within the banking system, it was decided, in principle, to introduce two types of participation certificates (PCs) in October 1988 - one on risk sharing basis and the other without risk shar ing. These were made str ictly inter-bank instruments confined to scheduled commercial banks, excluding regional rural banks. PCs, however, have not been used widely so far. These instruments are used only to obviate short-term liquidity problems by some banks by parting with standard assets. At times, these assets are also used to equilibrate priority sector norms by banks. 104

Per cent

27-Sep-04

22-Sep-05

17-Sep-06

01-Jan-04

26-Dec-04

21-Dec-05

31-Mar-04

26-Mar-05

21-Mar-06

16-Dec-06

29-Jun-04

24-Jun-05

G-Sec

OIS

MIFOR

Reverse Repo Rate

19-Jun-06

16-Mar-07

19-Jun-06

16-Mar-07

01-Jan-04

MONEY MARKET

(b) Money Market Mutual Funds (MMMFs) 3.141 Money market mutual funds were introduced in India in April 1991 to provide an additional shortterm avenue to investors and to bring money market instruments within the reach of individuals. A detailed scheme of MMMFs was announced by the Reserve Bank in April 1992. The portfolio of MMMFs consists of short-term money market instruments. Investments in such funds provide an opportunity to investors to obtain a yield close to short-term money market rates coupled with adequate liquidity. The Reserve Bank has made several modifications in the scheme to make it more flexible and attractive to banks and financial institutions. In October 1997, MMMFs were permitted to invest in rated corporate bonds and debentures with a residual maturity of up to one year, within the ceiling existing for CPs. The minimum lockin period was also reduced gradually to 15 days, making the scheme more attractive to investors. Market Integration 3.142 The success of monetary policy depends on the speed of adjustment in money market rates in response to changes in the policy rates for effective transmission of monetary policy impulses to the economy. This, in turn, depends on the development and integration of various market segments. In line with the progress of financial sector reforms in India, various segments of the money market are getting increasingly integrated as reflected in the close comovement of rates in various segments. The structure of retur ns across markets has shown greater convergence after the introduction of LAF, differentiated by maturity, liquidity and risk of instruments (Chart III.12). 3.143 Strengthening of linkages amongst market segments suggests greater operational efficiency of markets as well as the conduct of monetary policy. On the flip side, however, increased integration has resulted in increased contagion as turbulence or iginating in one mar ket segment is swiftly transmitted across all segments. Recent experience of financial market operations in various countries suggests that market integration tends to strengthen during episodes of volatility, pointing to a swifter transmission of market pressures from one segment to another. This imposes additional constraints on the management of market conditions necessitating simultaneous policy actions in various market segments to limit contagion in the presence of asymmetric integration of markets. The monetary 105

Chart III.12: Money Market Rates

Per cent

Jul-94

Apr-93

Jul-99

Oct-95

Jan-97

Oct-00

Jan-02

Jul-04

Oct-05

Call Rate CP Rate

Yield on 91-day Treasury Bill CD Rate

policy reaction has been in terms of a combination of instruments, including regulatory action, to ensure the rapid restoration of stability in financial markets. In this regard, the Reserve Bank has been able to maintain orderly market conditions in recent years amidst heightened volatility in international financial markets (see also Chapter VIII). Risk Management 3.144 The money market is characterised by various risks, viz., default risk, interest rate risk, exchange rate risk and settlement risk. Given the increasing market orientation of monetary policy in India, greater flexibility provided to banks and the focus on interest rates as the main policy instrument, sound risk management is critical for orderly market behaviour and overall financial stability. Accordingly, the Reserve Bank has been laying greater emphasis on developing efficient risk management practices by market participants. 3.145 A potential source of default risk in the money market emanates from the uncollateralised nature of the call money market. In this market, transactions are traditionally undertaken over the counter through telephonic deals, which lack standardisation and guarantee of settlement against default. This problem has been addressed by mandatory reporting of the deals by the participants in an electronic platform. Moreover, a screen based quote driven system (NDSCALL) has been developed by the CCIL on behalf of the Reserve Bank for greater transparency and price

Jan-07

Apr-98

Apr-03

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

discovery in the call/notice and the term money markets. Furthermore, as large recourse to the uncollateralised money market segment carries a potential risk of systemic instability arising out of defaults, prudential limits have been placed on call money exposures of banks and PDs. Moreover, nonbank participants with a distinctly different maturity profile of sources and uses of funds have been allowed to migrate from the call money segment to the collateralised segments (market repos and CBLOs). The shifting of non-banks to the collateralised segment has enhanced financial stability by reducing systemic risks. Besides, it has also promoted better asset-liability management on the part of banks. Cumulatively, these measures have resulted in the dominance of the collateralised segment in the overnight money market. 3.146 In view of the growing inter-linkages between the money and the foreign exchange markets on the one hand, and greater integration of the domestic market with global markets on the other, it is necessary that the market participants appropriately hedge the risks in their balance sheets emanating from movements in both international interest rates and exchange rates. In this regard, the Reserve Bank has introduced derivative instruments such as FRAs/ IRS/IRFs for hedging exposures. Although derivatives facilitate risk management, they, being highly leveraged, are more volatile than the underlying assets. This calls for monitoring and regulation of speculative derivative positions. The Reserve Bank, therefore, has been emphasising monitoring and regulation of derivative transactions. 3.147 The institutionalisation of a central counterparty in the form of Clearing Corporation of India (CCIL) from 2002, which guarantees settlement of transactions, has facilitated the mitigation of settlement risks and prevention of gridlock in the financial system arising out of bunching of transactions. The introduction of RTGS has further mitigated the settlement risk and the occurrence of gridlock. VI. THE WAY FORWARD 3.148 Wide-ranging reforms have been undertaken to develop the money market and strengthen its role in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Three major considerations that have guided rationalisation of the structure in the money market are: (i) ensuring balanced development of various constituents of the money market, especially the growth of the collateralised market vis-a-vis the uncollateralised market; (ii) preserving integrity and 106

transparency of the money market by ensuring better disclosure of information; and (iii) rationalising various classes of par ticipants across different market segments in order to strengthen the efficacy of the LAF of the Reserve Bank. As a result of various reform measures, the money market in India has undergone significant transformation in terms of volume, number of instruments and participants, and adoption of risk management practices. There are, however, still a number of concerns as well as issues that need to be addressed to enable it to play a more effective role, especially in the wake of move towards fuller capital account convertibility. These issues broadly relate to market development and liquidity management. Market Development Greater Flexibility for Participants in the Call Money Market 3.149 In view of the transformation of the call money market into a pure inter-bank market, there is a need to consider greater flexibility to banks and PDs to borrow or lend in this market, provided they have put in place appropriate risk management systems which would address the asset-liability mismatches in their balance sheets. In this context, banks have already started operating in an environment that requires greater har monisation between sources and deployment of funds for asset-liability management (ALM) purposes. Direct regulation in the form of prudential limits on borrowing and lending eventually would need to graduate to a system, where such limits are taken care of by banks own internal systems of ALM framework. This would correct large mismatches between sources and uses of funds by banks and thereby help the Reser ve Bank in the proper assessment of market conditions for the conduct of its liquidity management operations. There is also, at the same time, a greater need for closely monitoring the movements of call money rates. Extension of the Repo Market 3.150 It has been the endeavour of the Reserve Bank to develop the repo market not only for easing pressure from the uncollateralised call money market but also to facilitate the emergence of a short-term rupee yield curve for pricing fixed income securities. At present, only Central and State Governments securities are eligible for market repo. However, State Government securities do not have wider acceptability as there are hardly any repo operations based on them. As the fixed income money market has been overwhelmingly dependent upon Central Government

MONEY MARKET

securities, there is a need to consider broad-basing the pool of eligible securities. In this context, fully dematerialised corporate bonds with internationally accepted accounting practices could eventually be considered as eligible collaterals. The development of a proper settlement system for such instruments would be a prior necessity for progress in this process. There is also a need to exercise caution to ensure that only highly rated instruments qualify for such a facility. This is critical from the point of view of preserving market integrity. In future, the growth of market repo will be driven by the short selling activity in the government securities market as a repoed security can now be delivered up to five days in view of the recent changes in the regulations governing short sales. Development of a Vibrant Term Money Market 3.151 The term money market has not developed for several reasons, as discussed in detail earlier. One of the major reasons for this is that market participants have been unable to take a long-term view of interest rates despite availability of Treasury Bills of varying maturities and a reasonably developed swap market. In order to enable market participants to take a longterm view on interest rates, it is imperative that the ALM framework is strengthened and greater flexibility is allowed to the personnel managing treasury operations in banks. The skewness in liquidity in the money market in terms of chronic lenders and borrowers would get corrected as banks develop better ALM systems. The development of the term money market is vital for strengthening proper linkages between the foreign exchange market and the domestic currency market, which, in turn, would provide an impetus to the derivative segment. Relook at Inter-Bank Participation Certificates 3.152 Inter-Bank Participation Certificates, which can be used for evening out short-term liquidity mismatches by banks, were introduced in October 1988 in order to infuse greater degree of flexibility in their credit portfolios. In view of rapid credit growth in recent years, interest in IBPCs has again arisen. In this context, since considerable time has elapsed since the guidelines on the scheme of IBPCs were issued, the IBPC scheme with respect to duration, quantum in terms of the proportion to the loan amount, eligible participants and transferability of IBPCs needs a thorough review. Depending on the results of such a review, extending the use of this instrument could also facilitate the asset liability management by banks, 107

improve day-to-day liquidity management and help develop a market for credit risk transfer instruments between banks. Issues Pertaining to CP 3.153 Despite the de-linking of issuance from fundbased wor king capital limits and complete dematerialisation of CP issuances, the CP market continues to lack the desired level of activity. In terms of extant guidelines, only companies rated P-1 or P-2 by CRISIL or such equivalent rating by other agencies, can issue CP. As the market attains a reasonable level of maturity while the rating criterion may continue, the requirement of rating for issuing CP could be made more flexible so that a more structured market is available to investors depending on their risk appetite. Futures on Policy Linked Interest Rates 3.154 Going forward, an Indian variant of the Federal Funds Futures on interest rates linked to the Reserve Banks key policy rates may emerge. Trading in the futures market would reveal important information about market expectation on the future course of monetary policy. For instance, the trading of the Federal Funds Futures provides key information to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) in the US in formulating its monetary policy. Promoting Financial Stability 3.155 Default risk in the money market has the potential to create a contagion in the financial markets and, therefore, needs to be mitigated. In this regard, experiences of developed economies show that generally the self-regulatory organisations (SROs) regulate activities of participants in the money market in terms of their capital adequacy and conduct of business. Also, default resolution in most of these markets is undertaken through the Contract Law and the Bankr uptcy Law. In view of inter national experience, there may be a case for empowering a suitable self-regulatory organisation appropriately to act as a catalyst for the development of market microstructure. 3.156 One of the fundamental forces that could contribute to more organic integration across various segments of the financial market is the technological upgradation of the payment and settlement system. The accomplishment of virtual Public Debt Office (PDO) and Deposit Accounts Department (DAD) at the Reserve Bank, coupled with the operationalisation of the centralised funds management system (CFMS)

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

in a relatively low CRR regime should foster greater integration of various segments of the domestic market. While these developments could enhance the efficiency of the financial market, there is also the r isk of faster transmission of contagion. Therefore, risk containment in the new environment would be a major challenge for the Reserve Bank and it would have to remain flexible in the deployment of its instruments while simultaneously intervening in various market segments in order to strengthen financial stability. Liquidity Management 3.157 Although significant progress has been made in refining the liquidity management practices in India, several new challenges have emerged. First, during periods of abundant liquidity, the LAF window becomes a first resort for parking surplus funds by banks. Second, the Reserve Bank has developed the MSS as a sterilisation mechanism for arresting the liquidity impact of foreign exchange inflows of a more enduring nature, while the LAF continues to be used for managing liquidity at the margin. There is, however, no way of knowing ex-ante whether the liquidity situation is temporary or permanent. Furthermore, the MSS remains immobilised for the entire period of its maturity. There is, therefore, a need to explore further instr uments/options to under take liquidity management, particularly in the context of a move to fuller capital account convertibility. Third, the Reserve Bank may not be in a position to conduct sterilisation operations indefinitely as its inventory of Government paper is limited. There is also a limit on MSS issuances. Fur thermore, the Reserve Bank has withdrawn from pr imar y mar ket auctions of Government paper from April 1, 2006 in terms of provisions of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act, 2003. Fourth, the absence of a vibrant corporate debt market continues to impede further refinements in liquidity management in terms of eligible instruments as collaterals. In this context, it may be noted that State Development Loans, which are treated as eligible securities for collaterals under LAF operations effective April 3, 2007, have widened the collateral base for LAF. Fifth, as many banks are now operating close to the prescribed levels of SLR securities, in case of liquidity tightness, banks may find it difficult to approach the LAF window in the absence of sufficient collateral
12

securities. Sixth, while the Reserve Bank now holds LAF auctions twice on each working day to facilitate intra-day liquidity, a moral hazard issue arises as some market par ticipants may not be actively managing their own liquidity in the wake of the Reserve Banks market operations. 3.158 The above issues need to be addressed, especially in the wake of a progressive move to fuller capital account convertibility. First, there is a need to fur ther refine the system of assessing liquidity conditions, which calls for an improved framework of liquidity forecasting. The short span within which liquidity conditions have been changing by a large amount has posed a major challenge for targeting short-term interest rates. The understanding of the fiscal position and the Governments cash balances as also the timing and extent of capital inflows assumes added significance. In this context, there may be a need to consider the regular release of information on Government cash balances held with the Reserve Bank. Second, progressively more weightage needs to be given to movements in international interest rates in view of increased capital mobility. Third, destabilising large and sudden capital flows call for more flexible and swift monetary policy responses through small and gradual changes in policy rates, as has been practised in recent years, as large changes can be disruptive. Fourth, open market operations (OMOs), apart from being used for modulating liquidity conditions, could also be used to correct any serious distortions in the yield curve. Finally, while the Reserve Bank has progressively deemphasised the use of reserve requirements as an instrument of monetary policy, given the present state of market development, it is necessary to retain the flexibility of using reserve requirements, as and when necessary12. VII. SUMMING UP 3.159 Since the early 1990s, the money market has undergone a significant transformation in terms of instr uments, par ticipants and technological infrastructure. Various reform measures have resulted in a relatively deep, liquid and vibrant money market. The transfor mation has been facilitated by the Reserve Banks policy initiatives as also by a shift in the monetary policy operating procedures from administered and direct to indirect market-based

The provisions of Section 3 of the Reserve Bank of India (Amendment) Act, 2006 came into force effective April 1, 2007, which provide the necessary flexibility to the Reserve Bank in the use of the CRR.

108

MONEY MARKET

instruments of monetary management. The changes in the money market structure and monetary policy operating procedures in India have been broadly in step with the international experience and best practices. 3.160 Along with the shifts in the operating procedures of monetar y policy, the liquidity management operations of the Reserve Bank have also been fine-tuned to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy signalling. The increasing financial innovations in the wake of greater openness of the economy necessitated the transition from monetary targeting to a multiple indicator approach with greater emphasis on rate channels for monetary policy formulation. Accordingly, short-term interest rates have emerged as a key instrument of monetary policy since the introduction of LAF, which has become the principal mechanism of modulating liquidity conditions on a daily basis. 3.161 In line with the shifts in policy emphasis, various segments of the money market have been developed. The call money market was transformed into a pure inter-bank market, while other money market instruments such as market repo and CBLO were developed to provide avenues to non-banks for managing their shor t-term liquidity mismatches. Furthermore, issuance norms and maturity profiles of other money market instruments such as CPs and CDs were aligned for effective transmission of policy intent across various segments. The abolition of ad hoc Treasury Bills and introduction of Treasury Bills auction have led to the emergence of a risk free rate, which acts as a benchmark for pricing other money market instruments. The increased market orientation of monetary policy and greater integration of domestic markets with global financial markets, however, have necessitated the development of an institutional framework for appropriate risk management practices.

Accordingly, the Reserve Banks emphasis has been on encouraging migration towards the collateralised segments and developing derivatives for hedging market risks. This has been complemented by the institutionalisation of CCIL as a central counterparty to mitigate the settlement risk. The upgradation of payment technologies has further enabled market par ticipants to improve their asset liability management. Cumulatively, these measures have helped in containing volatility in the money market, thereby improving the signalling mechanism of monetary policy while ensuring financial stability. 3.162 Notwithstanding the considerable progress made so far, there is a need to develop the money market further, particularly in the context of a move towards fuller capital account convertibility. Further development of the money market calls for better ALM practices by banks and other market participants, which would enable banks to evolve appropriate prudential limits on their call money exposures from their internal control systems. In order to develop the term money market, participants need to take a longterm view on interest rates. Furthermore, there is a need to expand the eligible set of underlying collateral securities for repo transactions. This would not only facilitate liquidity management but also promote the development of underlying debt instruments. Finally, liquidity forecasting techniques need to be further refined for proper assessment of liquidity conditions by the Reserve Bank. This would facilitate finer changes in the operating procedures of liquidity management and enable the Reserve Bank to flexibly meet the emerging challenges. As these developments take place, it needs to be understood that monetary management in India will continue to be conducted in an intermediate regime that will have to respond creatively and carefully to the emerging and evolving monetar y and macroeconomic conditions, both domestic and global.

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ANNEX III.1: Operating Procedures of Liquidity Management in Developed Countries

Key Instruments of Discretionary Liquidity CRR OMO Repo Standing Facilities Others Frequency of Market Operations Eligible Counterparties Eligible Collateral

Country

Objective

Intermediate / Operating Target

Key Policy Indicators

1
Yes Yes Yes Yes Daily Primary dealers Direct obligations of the Govt. or those fully guranteed by Federal Govt. agencies & corporate bonds.

10

11

12

USA

To promote maximum sustainable output, employment & stable prices

Federal funds rate

Multiple indicators of current & prospective economic developments.

UK Yes Yes One per week plus one per month (longterm repos) One per week plus one per month on a regular basis Credit institutions meeting certain operational requirements, mutual funds, corporations, insurance companies & other institutional investors. Eligible UK banks, building societies & securities dealers.

Price stability

Overnight market Monetary and credit aggregates, developments in interest rates, etc. interest rate consistent with Bank Rate Yes Yes Yes Yes

Yes* Yes

UK and EEA Govt. & major international organisations bonds (Sterling and Euro).

ECB

Price stability, high level of employment, balanced & sustainable development Yes Yes Yes Yes More than one per day

No official operating target@

Money & broad assessment of outlook for price developments & the risks to price stability using financial & other economic indicators.

Both marketable & non-marketable private & public instruments.

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

110
Yes Yes Yes Daily Yes Yes Yes Daily Yes Yes Twice a day

Japan

Price stability & to Overnight call contribute to the money rate sound development of national economy

Overall economic & financial indicators- wholesale prices, corporate service prices & money stock.

Major players: domestically licensed banks, foreign banks and securities companies & money market brokers.

Both public debts such as JGBs & private debts such as CPs & bank loans.

Australia

Mainly price stability besides, maintenance of full employment, economic prosperity & welfare

Cash rate

Inflation & growth prospects, money & credit conditions.

Any member of Reserve Bank Information & Transfer System- large domestic banks, few large non- bank financial institutions & local branches of some global banks.

Commonwealth govt. securities, domestic debt securities & discount instruments issued by State & territorial Govt., bank bills & CDs issued by select banks, securities of supranational & foreign Govt. agencies having Govt. gurantee. Those parties who have entered Master Repurchase Agreement with the Reserve Bank. Primary dealers Govt. securities

New Zealand

Price stability

Official cash rate

GDP, output gap, business cycle indicators.

Canada

Low and stable inflation

Overnight rate

Output gap & wide range of indicators in various markets.

Securities issued & guaranteed by the Govt. of Canada & the provincial Govt., bankers acceptances, promissory notes, CPs, short-term muncipal paper, corporate & muncipal bonds with minimum issuer credit ratings.

* : Voluntary reserves averaging scheme with reserves remunerated at the Bank Rate provided on average they fall within + or - 1% of targets set by scheme.

@ : The ECB sets three key interest rates for the euro area, which determine the stance of the ECBs monetary policy. These include interest rates on the main refinancing operations, the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility.

Source: Websites of respective central banks and Hawkins. J (2005).

ANNEX III.2: Operating Procedures of Liquidity Management in Emerging Market Economies

Key Instruments of Discretionary Liquidity Eligible Counterparties Eligible Collateral CRR OMO Repo Standing Others Facilities Frequency of Market Operations

Country

Objective

Intermediate / Operating Target

Key Policy Indicators

1
Yes Yes Yes Bank of Russia Bonds & currency swaps For loans: financially sound credit institutions complying with the regulatory requirements and having accounts in 22 Bank of Russia regional branches. For deposits: banks, settlement nonbank credit institutions conducting deposit and lending operations. Banking institutions, which have signed ISDA/ISMA agreement. Daily & weekly Bank of Russia Lombard List of Securities, promissory notes and rights of claim under loan agreements, Federal & Regional Govt. bonds, Bank of Russia & credit institutions' bonds, mortgage backed bonds, resident corporate bonds, bonds of international financial organisations. All Central govt. securities, Reserve Bank Bills & land bank bills.

10

11

12

Russia

Stability of currency & settlement system

Monetary base

South Africa Yes Yes Yes Yes

Price stability

Repurchase rate Daily

Multiple indicators- money, credit, international interest rates, yield curve, output gap, asset prices, BOP position, exchange rate, etc. Foreign currency swaps Yes Yes Yes Yes Daily

Mexico

Price stability

Bank reserves

Money & monetary base, inflation indicators, employment, exchange rate & Balance of Payments. Yes Yes Yes Yes Policy oriented financial bonds & central bank bonds Market Stabilisation Scheme Twice a dayRepo 1 or 2 per week 21 commercial banks & bills finance companies.

China

Stability of the currency & thereby promote economic growth Yes Yes Yes# Yes

Money supply/ excess reserves

Eligible bills, bankers acceptances, trade acceptances & promisory notes collateralised against T-bills.

MONEY MARKET

111
Yes Yes Yes Yes Issuance of Bank of Thailand Bonds & foreign currency swaps Bank of Indonesia Certificates Daily Yes Yes Yes Yes Daily Yes Yes Yes Yes Bank Negara Bills Twice a day Yes Yes Yes Yes Liquidity adjustment loans and intraday overdrafts Yes Yes Yes Forex swaps & reverse swaps Weekly Yes Twice a day

India

Growth, price and financial stability

Overnight rate

Multiple indicators: broad money, interest rates, data on currency, credit, fiscal position, trade, capital flows, inflation rate, exchange rate, ouput data, etc.

LAF: banks and primary dealers MSS: banks, primary dealers, all-India financial institutions & others.

Central Govt. Securities & State Development Loans.

Thailand

Price stability

Repurchase rate (14-day)

Primary dealers, commercial banks, finance companies, finance & securities companies & specialised financial institutions.

Public debt securities - Govt. bonds, T-bills, FIDF bonds & Govt. guaranteed State enterprise bonds & BOT bonds.

Indonesia

Price stability

Bank Indonesia Rate

Forecasts for inflation, economic growth, monetary aggregates & developments in economic & financial sector.

Malaysia

Monetary & financial stability for growth

Overnight interest rate

Real interest rates, inflation & inflation indicators, asset prices, credit, money & potential output.

Primary dealers

Govt. securities for repo

Korea*

Price stability

Overnight call rate

Indicators of future inflation.

Banks, merchant banks, investment trust and securities companies.

Credit securities (including bills eligible for discount), Treasury bonds, Govt. guaranteed bonds, market stablisation bonds & land development bonds. Primary dealers, secondary dealers - banks, merchant banks & stock broking firms (in the case of repo only PDs). Singapore govt. securities - T-bills, bonds and non-marketable SGS bonds.

Singapore

Price stability as a sound basis for sustainable economic growth

Weighted exchange rate

Interest rates & forward forex rates.

* : Position reported as of 2003. # : Repo/reverse repo under Liquidity Adjustment Facility. Source: Websites of respective Central banks and Hawkins. J (2005).

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

ANNEX III.3: Structure of Money Markets

Country 1 USA Instruments 2 Federal Funds Tenor 3 Mostly overnight (there are also long-term for few weeks) Usually overnight Mostly 1-12 months (some have 5 years or more) 1-12 months Mostly 3-6 months (some have long-term) Major Participants 4 Banks & other depository institutions.

Discount window Certificates of Deposit

Banks & other depository institutions* Banks (money centre banks & large regional banks)* Well capitalised banks. Banks (foreign branches of US banks or foreign banks located abroad)*. These are sold to brokers, investment banks, institutional investors, & large corporations. Banks*

Negotiable Certificates of Deposit Eurodollar CDs

Eurodollar Time Deposits

Overnight, 1-week, 1-6 months & longer Short-term: overnight or a few days Longer-term: 1, 2, 3-weeks & 1, 2, 3, 6-months. 4, 13 & 26-weeks (52-weeks bill suspended in 2001) 30-days to 1-year Mostly 270-days Average 30-days Up to 270-days.

Repurchase Agreements

Banks, securities dealers, non-financial corporations & Governments (principal participants). US Government & primary dealers.

Treasury Bills

Municipal Notes Commercial Paper

State/ Local Governments. Non-financial & financial businesses (corporations & foreign Governments)*. Non-financial & financial businesses (firms involved in imports & exports)*.

Bankers Acceptances

Government-Sponsored Enterprise Securities Discount Notes Bonds Shares in Money Market Instruments Money market mutual funds Local Government Investment Pools

30 to 360-days More than 1-year

Farm Credit System, Federal Home Loan Bank System & Federal National Mortgage Association*.

Less than 90-days Average: 318-days (1-1044 days) 3-months Exercise at strike price on or before prearranged expiration date. Exchange of interest streames over the lives of underlying debt issues.

Money market mutual funds & Local Government Investment Pools.

Futures Contracts Options

Dealers & banks* Dealers, banks & non-banks

Interest Rate Swaps

Dealers, banks & non-banks

* Principal borrower.

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MONEY MARKET

ANNEX III.3: Structure of Money Markets (Contd.)

Country 1 UK Instruments 2 Reserves Averaging Standing Lending & Deposit Facilities Tenor 3 1-month between MPC decision dates Overnight Major Participants 4 43 banks & building societies More than 60 UK banks & building societies 43 UK banks, building societies & securities dealers.

OMOs: Repurchase Agreements (Gilts, HM Government non-sterling marketable debt, Sterling Treasury Bills, Bank of England Euro Bills & Euro notes, eligible bank & local authority bills, Sterling denominated securities issued by European Economic Area, Central Governments & International institutions). Treasury Bills Bills of Exchange. Certificates of Deposit

1-week at Bank Rate; 3, 6, 9, 12-months at market rates

Issued by the Government. Issued by banks. Upto 1-year (Some have maturity over 1-year) Issued by building societies & traded by banks & discount houses. Issued by Industry Traders 1-week 3-months Counterparties: eligible credit institutions.

Commercial Paper Bank Acceptance Trade Paper ECB@ Main refinancing operations Long-term refinancing operations (Tier-1 & Tier-2 assets) Fine-tuning/structural reverse transactions (Tier-1 & Tier-2 assets) Fine-tuning/structural outright purchase (Only Tier-1 assets) Fine-tuning foreign exchange swap Marginal lending facility(Tier-1 & Tier-2 assets) Structural issuance of debt securities Deposit facility Japan Call money market Short-term securities: Commercial Paper Certificates of Deposit Treasury Bills

Non-standardised

Eligible credit institutions.

Non-standardised

Non-standardised Overnight

Eligible credit institutions. Eligible credit institutions.

Less than 12-months Overnight

Eligible credit institutions. Eligible credit institutions.

@ Source : Blenck D, et al. (2001).

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REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

ANNEX III.3: Structure of Money Markets (Contd.)

Country 1 Instruments 2 Repurchase Agreements (Eligible collateral: Government bonds/ bills, Government guranteed bonds, municipal bonds, & foreign Government bonds, commercial bills, corporate bonds & asset backed securities) Non-collateralised market Tenor 3 1-week to 6-months Major Participants 4 Counterpar ties: Banks, securities companies, securities finance companies, money market brokers (Tanshi companies).

City banks (borrowers), regional banks (lenders), investment tr usts, trust banks, regional banks, Keito, life insurance companies, specialised money market brokers.

Australia

Outright transactions Government Securities: Treasury Notes Treasury Bonds Treasury Indexed Bonds Semi-Government Securities: Semi-Government Promissory Notes Semi-Government Bonds Semi-Government Indexed Bonds Repurchase Agreements Government Securities: Treasury Notes Treasury Bonds Treasury Indexed Bonds Semi-Government securities: Semi-Government Promissory Notes Semi-Government Bonds Semi-Government Indexed Bonds Domestic Securities

Issued by Commonwealth Governments. Of less than 18-months Of less than 18-months Issued by State Government & Territory Central Borrowing Authorities.

Of less than 18-months Of less than 18-months Of less than 18-months

Issued by Commonwealth Governments.

Issued by State Government & Territory Central Borrowing Authorities

Issued by the foreign Sovereigns, Supranationals & Government Agency Securities. Issued by eligible banks. Issued by eligible banks. 1-month to 1-year Up to 18-months 1-month to 1-year Issued by the Government of Canada. Issued by the Government of Canada. Issued by the Crown Corporations such as Canadian Wheat Board, Federal Business Development Bank, etc. Issued by the Provincial Governments Issued by the corporations (with an unconditional guarantee of a major Canadian chartered bank) Major corporations.

Accepted Bills of Exchange Negotiable Certificates of Deposit Canada Treasury Bills Money Market Strips Government Guaranteed Commercial Paper

Treasury Bills & Promissory Notes Bankers Acceptances

1-month to 1-year 1-month to 1-year

Commercial Paper

1-month to 1-year

114

MONEY MARKET

ANNEX III.3: Structure of Money Markets (Contd.)

Country 1 Russia Instruments 2 Refinancing Mechanisms: Intra-day loans Overnight loans Lombard loans Loans against collateral (Promissory Notes) & guarantees Repo operations: Government Bonds Federal Government Bills Bank of Russia Bonds Securities accepted as Collateral for Bank of Russia loans: Regional Government Bonds Credit institutions bonds Mortgage backed bonds Resident corporate bonds Bonds of international financial institutions Currency swaps. Deposit operations: Deposit operations at fixed rates Deposit operations at auction rates Tenor 3 Major Participants 4

1-working day 7 or 14-days Up to 180-days

Financially sound credit institutions complying with the regulatory requirements. Credit institutions having account in 22 Bank of Russia regional branches

Overnight, 3 & 6-months 6-months 3 to 6-months

Daily (with overnight & 1-week) Weekly (4-weeks & 3-months)

Banks, settlement non-bank credit institutions & non bank credit institutions conducting deposit & lending operations.

China

Inter-bank lending instruments: Repurchase Agreements or outright basis (OMOs) : Government Securities Negotiable Certificates of Deposit Commercial Paper Discount Window Eligible bills: Bankers Acceptances Trade Acceptances Promissory Notes

1, 7, 20, 30, 60, 90 & 120-days. Participants in OMOs: Central Bank, large domestic commercial banks & other financial institutions approved by PBC. Participants in inter-bank market: All authorised commercial banks, trust & investment corporations, financial leasing companies, finance companies of business conglomerates, urban credit cooperatives, & rural credit co-operatives, securities companies, insurance companies, & financing intermediaries. Overnight 2 to 14-days Scheduled commercial banks (excluding RRBs), co-operative banks, primary dealers (PDs), & till August 5, 2005 select allIndia FIs, insurance companies & mutual funds. Banks, all-India financial institutions & PDs.

India #

Call Money Notice Money

Term Money

15-days to 1-year

# : Year in parentheses denote the year of introduction of the instrument.

115

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

ANNEX III.3: Structure of Money Markets (Contd.)

Country 1 Instruments 2 Certificates of Deposit (1989) Tenor 3 Minimum 7-days Major Participants 4 Scheduled commercial banks (excluding RRBs & Local Area Banks) & select allIndia financial institutions. Corporates, all-India financial institutions & PDs. Scheduled commercial banks, PDs & allIndia financial institutions. Banks, PDs, select all-India financial institutions, insurance companies & mutual funds.

Commercial Paper (1990)

Minimum 7-days

Forward Rate Agreements/ Interest Rate Swaps (1999) Bills Rediscounting

Contracts are available for maturities upto 10-years.

Repurchase Agreements (1992) Market Repo 1-day to 1-year Banks, PDs, all-India financial institutions, insurance companies, mutual funds & listed corporates. Banks and PDs. Banks, PDs, financial institutions & other non-bank entities. Scheduled commercial banks.

RBI Repo (LAF) Treasury Bills

1-day* 91, 182 & 364-days

Inter-bank Participation Certificates (1988) CBLO (2003)

91 to 180-days

1-day to 1-year

Scheduled commercial banks, Cooperative banks, PDs, select all-India financial institutions, insurance companies, mutual funds & other corporates. 60 members: commercial banks, finance companies, finance & securities companies, & specialised financial institutions, FIDF.

Thailand

Repurchase Operations: Government Bonds Treasury Bills Financial Institution Development Fund (FIDF) Bonds Government Guaranteed State Enterprises Bonds Bilateral Repurchase Operations Bank of Thailand (BOT) Bonds

1, 7, 14-days, 1, 2, 3 & 6-months

14-day 12-months or less.

Bilateral primary dealers. Commercial banks, specialised financial institutions, finance companies, finance & securities companies, Government pension fund, provident funds, mutual funds, social security office, life & nonlife insurance companies & other institutions having current account at BOT. Both onshore & offshore commercial banks.

Foreign Exchange Swaps

Overnight up to 1-year (Typically concentrated on the short endsup to 3-month)

* : The Reserve Bank retains the option to conduct longer term repo under the LAF depending on market conditions and other relevant factors.

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MONEY MARKET

ANNEX III.3: Structure of Money Markets (Contd.)

Country 1 Instruments 2 End-of-day Liquidity Window Tenor 3 Overnight Major Participants 4 Commercial banks, finance companies, finance & securities companies & specialised financial institutions.

Indonesia Bank of Indonesia Certificates (SBI) Fasilitas Bank Indonesia (FASBI) deposit facility. SBI Repurchase Agreements-phased out in Aug, 2005 & replaced by Fine-Tune Expansion (FTE) SWBI or Wadiah Certificate (SBI using Sharia principles) Malaysia Malaysian Government Securities

1- month & 3-months 1 to 14-days 1 to 14-days Banks

Security institutions, banking system & the employees provident fund. 91, 182, 364-days Commercial banks, discount houses, principal dealers & finance companies. Commercial banks, merchant banks, finance companies & discount houses.

Treasury Bills

Repurchase Agreements (Repos) (The securities normally used in repo transactions are Malaysian Government Securities, Bankers Acceptances & Negotiable Certificates of Deposits, Treasury Bills, Cagamas Bonds, Central Bank Certificates, other trade bills, etc.) Bank Negara Bills Bank Negara Monetary Notes Direct borrowing Negotiable Certificates of Deposit

Overnight to a few months

1-year Up to 3-years Up to 6-months (average: 20-30 days) In multiples of 3-months, up to 5-years Business enterprises, banks, discount houses, statutory authorities, savings & pension funds, the Government & individuals. Commercial banks & merchant banks Commercial banks, specialised banks, regional banks, investment & finance companies, merchant banking corporations, investment trust companies, insurance companies, the Korea Securities Finance Corporation, the Credit Insurance Fund & foreign bank branches in Korea. Select financial institutions.

Bankers Acceptances Korea Call money

30 to 200-days Overnight, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11& 15-days loans.

Repo (Securities eligible for OMOs: Government Bond, Government Guaranteed Bonds & land development bonds)

15 to 91-days.

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REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

ANNEX III.3: Structure of Money Markets (Concld.)

Country 1 Instruments 2 Treasury Bills Market Stablisation Bonds. Liquidity adjustment loans. Intraday overdrafts. Tenor 3 364-days 14-2 years & 546-days Not more than 1-month Close of business day. Select financial institutions. Applicant banks Select commercial banks, special banks, local banks & foreign banks. Banks. Eligible non-finance companies, investment & finance companies & merchant banking corporations. 91-days & 182-days. Up to 3-years. Primary dealers. Banks, mining houses, pension funds, insurance companies, commercial companies, municipal authorities, public corporations & individuals Merchant banks & commercial banks. Reserve Bank & other financial institutions. Banks. Major Participants 4

Negotiable Certificates of Deposit Commercial Paper.

South Africa

Treasury Bills Negotiable Certificates of Deposit.

Bankers Acceptances. Repurchase Agreements.

Up to 3-months & in some cases longer. 1 to 7-days.

Reserve Bank Debentures. Foreign Currency Swaps. Singapore Repos/reverse repos Singapore Government Securities.

28 to 56-days.

3-month to 15 years with 3-month & 1-year benchmarks for T-Bills & 2, 5, 7, 10 & 15-year benchmark for bonds.

Primary dealers, secondary dealers covering banks, merchant banks, & stock broking firms, finance companies, insurance companies, corporations & individuals. (In the case of the repo, only PDs). Banks.

End-of-day Liquidity Facility. Forex Swaps & Reverse swaps. Source: Websites of respective central banks.

Overnight.

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IV

CREDIT MARKET

4.1 Credit markets have, historically, played a crucial role in sustaining growth in almost all countries, including advanced countries, which now have fully developed capital markets. Credit markets perform the critical function of intermediation of funds between savers and investors and improve the allocative efficiency of resources. Banks, which are major players in the credit market, play an important role in providing various financial services and products, including hedging of risks. Credit markets also play a key role in the monetary transmission mechanism. 4.2 Extension of credit, however, also poses some risks, which range from pure credit risk to the risk of over-lending. While pure credit risk is the risk of loss due to non-payment by the borrower, even though adequate precautions are taken at the time of loan origination, the risk of over-lending arises when banks extend loans without appropriate credit appraisal and due diligence on account of excessive optimism about future prospects. While pure credit risk may not be widespread and may normally not create systemic problems, over-lending is unsustainable and potentially destabilising for the system. Regulators in all countries, therefore, while seeking to maintain adequate growth, guard against its adverse impact by instituting appropriate regulatory and supervisory policies and strengthening of prudential norms. 4.3 The credit market in India has traditionally played a predominant role in meeting the financing needs of various segments of the economy. Credit institutions range from well developed and large sized commercial banks to development finance institutions (DFIs) to localised tiny co-operatives. They provide a variety of credit facilities such as short-term working loans to corporates, medium and long-term loans for financing large infrastructure projects and retail loans for various purposes. Unlike other segments of the financial market, the credit market is well spread throughout the country and it touches the lives of all segments of the population. 4.4 Prior to initiation of financial sector reforms in the early 1990s, the credit market in India was tightly regulated. Bank credit was the principal focus of monetary policy under the credit planning approach adopted in 1967-68. In the absence of a formal

intermediate target, bank credit aggregate as well as sectoral came to serve as a proximate target of monetary policy. Monetary policy up to the mid-1980s was predominantly conducted through direct instruments with credit budgets for banks being framed in sync with monetary budgeting (Mohan, 2006a). The credit market was characterised by credit controls and directed lending. Various credit controls existed in the form of sectoral limits on lending, limits on borrowings by individuals, stipulation of margin requirements, need for prior approval from the Reserve Bank, if borrowing exceeded a specified limit (under the Credit Authorisation Scheme), and selective credit controls in the case of sensitive commodities. Lending interest rates by all types of credit institutions were administered. Credit markets were also strictly segmented. While commercial banks catered largely to the short-term working capital requirements of industr y, development finance institutions focused mainly on long-term finance. Competition in the credit market was also limited. This led to several inefficiencies in the credit market. 4.5 A wide range of regulator y refor ms, therefore, were introduced as part of financial sector reforms in the early 1990s to improve the efficiency of the credit market. As a result, the credit market in India has undergone structural transformation. The credit market has become highly competitive even though the number of credit institutions has reduced due to merger/conversion of two DFIs into banks, weeding out of unsound NBFCs and restructuring of urban co-operative banks and RRBs. Credit institutions now offer a wide range of products. They are also free to price them depending on their risk perception. 4.6 In the above backdrop, this chapter analyses trends in the credit market in India, with a special focus on various aspects of rapid credit growth in recent years. The chapter is divided into six sections. Section I briefly explains the significance of the credit market in economic growth. The structure of the credit market in India is delineated in Section II. Policy developments relating to the credit market since the early 1990s have been set out in Section III. Trends in credit growth in India in the post-reform period are analysed in Section IV. Recent trends in bank credit growth and their implications are also

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

analysed in this section. Section V suggests some measures with a view to further strengthening the role of the credit mar ket in India. Concluding observations are presented in Section VI. I. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE CREDIT MARKET 4.7 There is a broad consensus, among both academics and policy makers, that a developed financial system spurs economic growth through a number of channels: (i) acquisition of information on firms; (ii) intensity with which creditors exert corporate control; (iii) provision of risk-reducing arrangements; (iv) pooling of capital; and (v) ease of making transactions (Levine, 2004). There are two mechanisms for mobilising savings and channeling them into investments, viz., bank-based and marketbased, as alluded to in Chapter I. Empirical evidence reveals that while a more developed financial sector is associated with higher income levels, there is no clear pattern with regard to financial structure. 4.8 In most countries, both the systems exist even as one system may be more dominant than the other. However, of the two systems, credit institutions have the distinct advantage in information gathering and processing to monitor the efficiency and productivity of projects. In fact, in recent years the existence of banks, which are the major players in the credit market, is attributed more to their infor mation gathering capacity arising out of the existence of asymmetric information and moral hazard problems, than to the classic explanation relating to their ability to mobilise savings and channeling them into investment. Savers usually have incomplete information on the affairs of companies, which makes it more difficult for companies to obtain direct financing from the market. Intermediation by banks mitigates such agency problems. When the cost of acquiring information on a company by the providers of financial resources is high, the process of financing companies can be done more efficiently if the prospective investors are able to delegate the collection of such information to a specialised organisation (Diamond, 1984). Thus, financial intermediation is justified on the grounds of information gathering and companymonitoring functions performed by banks. By reducing the costs of acquiring and processing information, financial institutions encourage mobilisation of savings and improve resource allocation. Banks can also diversify risk among a number of companies. 4.9 Firms in developing countries generally tend to rely more on debt finance, including bank credit. The emphasis on credit rather than equity arises due 120

to various reasons. The cost of equity in developing economies is often much higher than the cost of debt due to the existence of higher perceived risk premia than in developed countries. The existence of artificially repressed interest rates contributes further to the problem. The other reasons for the heavy reliance on debt in developing countries include the fragility of their equity markets, lack of suitable accounting practices and the absence of adequate corporate governance practices. Given the high dependence on bank credit and lack of substitutes for external finance, firms in developing economies are generally highly sensitive to changes in the cost and flow of credit. 4.10 Credit markets in developing countries, in particular, play an important role, where apart from industry, agriculture is also an important segment of the economy. Besides, there are also a large number of small and medium enterprises in the industrial and service sectors, which are not able to access the capital market and have to depend on the credit market for their funding requirements. Thus, the importance of banks and other lending institutions in developing countries can hardly be overemphasised. 4.11 Commercial banks, given their preeminent position in the regulated financial sector, dominate the credit market. The quantity of loans created by the banking system is generally a function of both the willingness and ability of banks to lend. In an economy with ceilings on lending rates, banks face a higher credit demand than they can effectively supply, thus, necessitating reliance on a credit rationing mechanism. In a non-repressed financial system, on the other hand, the borrowers are, in principle, differentiated along the lines of risk characteristics and riskier borrowers are charged higher interest rates to account for default probabilities. This, however, may create the problem of adverse selection. Though riskier projects bring higher returns, banks, out of sustainability consideration, need to optimise the risk of their portfolio. 4.12 Another impor tant factor influencing the supply of credit is the amount of reserves available from the central bank to the banking system. A large pre-emption of central bank money by the Government may constrain reserve supply to the banking system, thus, affecting their capacity for credit creation. Moreover, credit expansion could also be an endogenous process, i.e., it is the demand for credit that may drive the banking systems ability to create credit in the economy. 4.13 Development of the credit market plays an impor tant role in the monetar y transmission

CREDIT MARKET

mechanism. The traditional interest rate channel, represented by the money view, mainly focuses on the liability side as banks create money through chequable deposits. The asset side is not emphasised as firms financial structure is believed to be neutral to borrowings through loans from banks or through issuance of securities. This is based on the assumption that different financial assets such as bonds and bank loans are perfect substitutes. However, in terms of credit view, bonds and bank loans are not seen as perfect substitudes primarily because of information asymmetries. Firms facing informational problems find it more expensive to borrow through bonds than availing loans from banks. 4.14 According to the credit view, the direct effect of monetary policy is amplified by changes in the external finance premium (EFP) in the same direction. An EFP is the difference in cost of funds raised externally (by way of issuing equity or debt) and funds generated internally (retained earnings). Thus, monetary tightening increases EFP, while easing of monetary policy reduces EFP. As a result, the impact of a given change in short-term policy interest rates on demand and output is magnified, which reinforces the effects of variation in interest rates (Bernanke and Gertler, 1995). In this context, the most representative theoretical model of the credit view is that of Bernanke and Blinder (1988). It is a modification of the IS/LM framework and contains all the elements that allow for the theoretical definition of imperfect substitution between credit on the one hand, and bonds and securities on the other (Box IV.1). As a policy guide, Bernanke and Blinder conclude that if money demand shocks are more important than credit demand shocks, then a policy of targeting credit is probably better than a policy of targeting money. 4.15 Given that a developed financial intermediation system facilitates growth, policy makers tend to liberalise the system to facilitate financial development. The literature, however, suggests that authorities should take adequate caution in adopting a liberalised policy frameworks intended to develop the financial sector (IMF, 2006). Lax supervision and rudimentary regulation of newly liberalised financial institutions, often combined with a volatile macroeconomic environment, have led to systemic crises (Lindgren, et al, 1996 and Caprio and Klingebiel, 2003). Similarly, there is econometric evidence that shows that banking crises are more likely to occur in countries associated with liberalised credit markets operating in weak institutional environments. The East Asian crisis underlined the risks to economic stability and growth that a weak or vulnerable financial sector could pose. 121

II. INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURE OF THE CREDIT MARKET IN INDIA 4.16 The credit market structure in India has evolved over the years. A wide range of financial institutions exist in the country to provide credit to various sectors of the economy. These include commercial banks, regional rural banks (RRBs), cooperatives [comprising urban cooperative banks (UCBs), State co-operative banks (STCBs), district central co-operative banks (DCCBs), pr imar y agricultural credit societies (PACS), state co-operative and agricultural rural development banks (SCARDBs) and primar y co-operative and agricultural rural development banks (PCARDBs)], financial institutions (FI) (term-lending institutions, both at the Centre and State level, and refinance institutions) and nonbanking financial companies (NBFCs) (Exhibit IV.1). 4.17 Scheduled commercial banks constitute the predominant segment of the credit market in India. In all, 83 scheduled commercial banks were in operation at end-March 2006. The commercial banking sector is undergoing a phase of consolidation. There have been 12 mergers/amalgamations since 1999. The RRBs, which were set up in the 1970s to provide agricultural and rural credit, are being restructured at the initiative of the Government of India. Till October 31, 2006, 137 RRBs were amalgamated to form 43 new RRBs, bringing down the total number of RRBs in the country to 102 from 196 at end-March 2005. 4.18 The co-operative banking system, with two broad segments of urban and rural co-operatives, forms an integral part of the Indian financial system. Urban cooperative banks, also referred to as primary cooperative banks, play an important role in meeting the growing credit needs of urban and semi-urban areas of the country. The UCBs, which grew rapidly in the early 1990s, showed certain weaknesses arising out of lack of sound corporate governance, unethical lending, comparatively high levels of non-performing loans and their inability to operate in a liberalised environment. Accordingly, some of the weak UCBs have been either liquidated or merged with other banks. As a result, the number of UCBs declined from 1,942 at end-March 2001 to 1,853 by end-March 2006. 4.19 Historically, rural co-operative credit institutions have played an important role in providing institutional credit to the agricultural and rural sectors. These credit institutions, based on the nature of their lending operations, have typically been divided into two distinct segments, commonly known as the short-term cooperative credit structure (STCCS) and the long-term co-operative credit structure (LTCCS). The STCCS,

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Box IV.1 The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy

The impact of monetary policy on the real economy operates through various channels. Under the conventional approach, referred to as the money view, monetary policy influences the economy via the interest rate. The alternate channel, that emphasises credit conditions as the route of monetary transmission, is of relatively recent origin and is referred to as the credit view. Genesis of the credit view could be traced to the celebrated work of Bernanke and Blinder (1988), which presented the IS-LM framework augmented with bankintermediated loans. It argued that since loans and bonds are not perfect substitutes, monetary policy operates not only through the conventional money channel but also through the credit channel. According to the credit view, a change in monetary policy that raises or lowers open market interest rates tends to change the external finance premium in the same direction. External finance premium is the difference between the cost of funds raised externally and the funds raised internally. Because of this additional effect of policy on the external finance premium, the impact of monetary policy on the cost of borrowing and consequently on real spending and real activity is magnified (Bernanke and Gertler, 1995). There are three reasons for which the credit channel is important. First, evidence suggests that credit market imperfections of the type crucial to the credit channel do indeed affect firms employment and spending decisions. Second, evidence suggests that small firms, which are more likely to be credit constrained, are hurt more by tight monetary policy than their larger counterparts. Third, asymmetric information - the core of credit channel analysis - proves to be highly useful in explaining some other important phenomena: e.g., why do financial intermediaries exist; structure of the financial sector; and why do financial crises occur (Mishkin, 1996). There are two channels through which credit conditions are expected to affect monetary transmission. First, the bank lending channel, that operates through modulation of bank reserves, is affected by monetary policy. Contractionary/ expansionary policy limits or enhances the ability of banks to lend and thereby reduces/increases investment and output. The second, the balance sheet channel works through net worth of the borrowers. Contractionary policy would raise interest rates and thereby reduce the value of the collateral and net worth of the borrowers. This, accordingly, limits the ability of borrowers to borrow and invest. Further, the literature also points out a direct connection between the balance sheet channel and housing demand by features such as downpayment requirements, up-front transaction costs and minimum income to interest payment ratios. However, empirical evidence suggests that effectiveness of the credit channel depends upon conditions such as existence of bankdependent borrowers, for instance, small and low net worth firms (Gertler and Gilchrist, 1993 and 1994), substitution between retail and bulk deposits and ability of the central bank to constrain banks potential to lend. Empirical work to draw inferences on the existence of the credit channel in India is rather limited. A recent study examining the impact of financial liberalisation shows that banks in general are constrained in their lending operations by the availability of insured deposits and these constraints are more severe for those banks that lend predominantly against collateral. In India more than eighty five per cent of bank lending is against collateral. This implies a potentially important influence of the bank lending channel. A very recent attempt in estimating the bank lending channel has brought out a number of facets of the transmission mechanism - by employing structural VAR methodology on monthly data for all the Indian scheduled commercial banks spanning from April 1993 to April 2002 (Pandit, et al, 2006). First, the study validates the existence of a bank lending channel in the Indian context. This implies that the central bank, while formulating monetary policy, is likely to encounter independent shifts in the loan supply. Second, evidence seems to point to the fact that large banks with a wider resource base can more successfully insulate their loan supply from contractionary policy shocks vis--vis small banks. Third, the quantitative instruments such as the cash reserve ratio (CRR) continue to be important along with the price instruments such as the Bank Rate. Finally, prudential regulations have an important role to play in influencing lending decisions of banks. In particular, the introduction of capital adequacy ratios has made banks more concerned with the risk-return profile of loans, since additional lending warrants augmenting of capital base in order to adhere to the regulatory capital standards. References: Bernanke, Ben, and A. Blinder. 1988. Credit, Money and Aggregate Demand. American Economic Review 135-139, May. Bernanke, Ben, and M. Gertler. 1995. Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission. Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol.9: 27-48. Pandit, B.L., Ajit Mittal, Mohua Roy and Saibal Ghosh. 2006. Transmission of Monetary Policy, and the Bank Lending Channel: Analysis and Evidence for India. DRG Study No. 25, Reserve Bank of India.

comprising PACS at the village level, DCCBs at the intermediate level, and the STCBs at the apex level, provide crop and other working capital loans to farmers and rural artisans primarily for short-term purposes. The LTCCS, comprising SCARDBs at the State level 122

and PCARDBs at the district or block level, provide typically medium and long-term loans for making investments in agriculture, rural industries and, in the recent period, housing. However, the structure of rural co-operative banks is not uniform across all the States

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Exhibit IV.1: Credit Market Structure (End-March 2006)

Commercial Banks (216, including 133 RRBs)

Financial Institutions

Non-Banking Financial Companies (13,014)

Co-operative Institutions

All-India Financial Institutions (Term-lending) (4)

Specialised Financial Institutions

State Level Institutions (SFCs, SIDCs.)

Urban Co-operative Banks (1,853)

Rural Co-operative Institutions

Short-Term (109,177)

Long-Term (747)

STCBs (31)

DCCBs (367)

PACs (108,779)

SCARDBs (20)

PCARDBs (727)

Note

: Figures in parentheses represent number of institutions in the respective category. Numbers relate to end-March 2005 in respect of rural co-operatives and end-June 2006 in respect of NBFCs.

Source : Report on Trend and Progress of Banking in India, 2005-06, Reserve Bank of India.

of the country. Some States have a unitary structure with the State level banks operating through their own branches, while others have a mixed structure incorporating both unitary and federal systems. 4.20 Financial institutions owed their origin to the objective of state driven planned economic development, when the capital mar kets were relatively underdeveloped and judged to be incapable of meeting adequately the long-term requirements of the economy. Over the years, a wide range of FIs, mostly Government owned, came into existence to cater to the medium to long-term financing requirements of different sectors of the economy. FIs played a key role in extending development finance in India and for this purpose they were given access to concessional finance in the form of Government guaranteed bonds and Long-Term Operations (LTO) Fund of the Reserve Bank. However, the governments fiscal imperatives and market dynamics forced a reappraisal of the policies and strategy with regard to the role of FIs in the economy and the concessional finance was phased out by the mid-1990s. A major restructuring in the financial sector occurred when two major FIs, viz., ICICI and IDBI converted into banks. Thus, this particular segment of the credit market has shrunk significantly in recent years. 4.21 NBFCs encompass a heterogeneous group of intermediaries and provide a whole range of 123

financial services. Though heterogeneous, NBFCs can be broadly classified into three categories, viz., asset finance companies (such as equipment leasing and hire purchase), loan companies and investment companies. A separate category of NBFCs, called the residuary non-banking companies (RNBCs), also exists as it has not been categorised into any one of the above referred three categories. Besides, there are miscellaneous non-banking companies (Chit Fund), mutual benefit financial companies (Nidhis and unnotified Nidhis) and housing finance companies. The number of NBFCs operating in the country was 51,929 in 1996. Following the amendments to the provisions contained in Chapter III-B and Chapter IIIC of the Reserve Bank of India Act, NBFCs both, deposit taking and non-deposit taking, are required to compulsorily register with the Reserve Bank. One of the conditions for registration for NBFCs was a minimum net owned fund (NOF) of Rs.25 lakh at the entry point. This limit was subsequently enhanced to Rs.2 crore for new NBFCs seeking grant of Certificate of Registration on or after April 21, 1999. The Reserve Bank received 38,244 applications for grant of certificate of registration (CoR) as NBFCs till endMarch 2006. Of these, the Reserve Bank approved 13,141 applications, including 423 applications of companies authorised to accept/hold public deposits. Due to consolidation in the sector, the number of NBFCs declined to 13,014 by end-June 2006.

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Chart IV.1: Total Assets of Financial Intermediaries Relative Shares (end-March 2006)

manner in which credit institutions operated and responded to the customer needs. The interest rate played a ver y limited role as the equilibrating mechanism between demand and supply of resources. The resource allocation process was deficient, which manifested itself in poor asset quality. They also lacked operational flexibility and functional autonomy. 4.24 As part of financial sector reforms in the early 1990s, wide ranging reforms were introduced in the credit market with a view to making the credit institutions more efficient and healthy. The reform process initially focused on commercial banks. After significant progress was made to transfor m commercial banks into sound institutions, the reform process was extended to encompass other segments of the credit market. As part of the reform process, the strategy shifted from micro-management to macro level management of the credit market. These measures created a conducive environment for banks and other credit institutions to provide adequate and timely finance to different sectors of the economy by appropriately pricing their loan products on the basis of the risk profile of the borrowers. 4.25 Lending interest rates were deregulated with a view to achieving better price discovery and efficient resource allocation. This resulted in growing sensitivity of credit to interest rates and enabled the Reserve Bank to employ mar ket based instr uments of 2 monetary control. The Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR ) has been gradually reduced to 25 per cent. The Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) was reduced from its peak level of 15.0 per cent maintained during 1989 to 1992 to 4.5 per cent of Net Demand and Time Liabilities (NDTL) in June 2003. The reduction in statutory preemptions has significantly augmented the lendable resources of banks. Although the Reserve Bank continues to pursue its medium-term objective of reducing the CRR, in recent years, on a review of macroeconomic and monetary conditions, the CRR has been revised upwards in phases to 6.5 per cent. 4.26 While the stipulation for lending to the priority sector has been retained, its scope and definition have been fine-tuned by including new items. Further, restrictions on banks lending for project finance

Scheduled Commercial Banks Regional Rural Banks and Local Area Banks Urban Co-operative Banks Rural Co-operatives All India Financial Institutions NBFCs (including RNBCs)
Source : Report on Trend and Progress of Banking in India, 2005-06, Reserve Bank of India.

4.22 Of all institutions, in ter ms of assets, commercial banks constitute the largest category, followed by rural co-operatives (Chart IV.1). III. POLICY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE CREDIT MARKET IN INDIA 4.23 The credit market, with commercial banks as its predominant segment, has been the major source for meeting the finance requirements in the economy, both for the private sector and the Central and State Government enterprises. In addition to sharing of resources between the private and the public sectors, a significant proportion of credit by commercial banks is earmarked for the priority sector 1 . For a few decades preceding the onset of banking and financial sector reforms in India, credit institutions operated in an environment that was heavily regulated and characterised by barriers to entry, which protected them against competition. The issue of allocation of bank resources among various sectors was addressed through mechanisms such as SLR, credit authorisation scheme (CAS), fixation of maximum permissible bank finance (MPBF) and selective credit controls. This regulated environment set in complacency in the
1

Priority sector comprises agriculture (both direct and indirect), small scale industries, small roads and water transport operators, small business, retail trade, professional and self-employed persons, state sponsored organisations for Scheduled Castes/Scheduled Tribes, education, housing (both direct and indirect), consumption loans, micro-credit, loans to software, and food and agro-processing sector. Under Section 18 of the Banking Regulation Act, 1949, all scheduled banks are required to maintain SLR, i.e., a certain proportion of their demand and time liabilities (DTL) as on the last Friday of the second preceeding fortnight as liquid assets (cash, gold valued at a price not exceeding the current market price or unencumbered approved securities valued at a price as specified by the Reserve Bank from time to time). Following the amendment of the Act in January 2007, the floor rate of 25 per cent for SLR was removed.

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activity and for personal loans were gradually removed in order to enable banks to operate in a flexible manner in the credit market. As part of the financial sector reforms, the regulatory norms with respect to capital adequacy, income recognition, asset classification and provisioning have been progressively aligned with international best practices. These measures have enhanced transparency of the balance sheets of banks and infused accountability in their functioning. Accounting standards and disclosure norms were also strengthened with a view to improving governance and bringing them in alignment with international norms. As part of the reform programme, due consideration has been given to diversification of ownership of banking institutions for greater market accountability and improved efficiency. Accordingly, several public sector banks expanded their capital base by accessing the capital market, which diluted Government ownership. To provide banks with additional options for raising capital funds with a view to enabling smooth transition to Basel II, the Reserve Bank, in January 2006, allowed banks to augment their capital funds by issue of additional instruments. 4.27 With a view to enhancing efficiency and productivity through competition, guidelines were laid down for establishment of new banks in the private sector. Since 1993, 12 new private sector banks have been set up. Foreign banks have also been allowed more liberal entry. Considering the special nature of banks, guidelines on ownership and governance in private sector banks were also issued in February 2005 (Box IV.2). As a major step towards enhancing competition in the banking sector, foreign direct investment in the private sector banks is now allowed up to 74 per cent (including investment by FIIs), subject to conformity with the guidelines issued from time to time. A roadmap for foreign banks, articulating a liberalised policy consistent with the WTO commitments was released in March 2005. For new and existing foreign banks, it was proposed to go beyond the existing WTO commitment of 12 branches in a year. 4.28 A large magnitude of resources of credit institutions had become locked up in unproductive assets in the form of non-performing loans (NPLs). Apart from limiting the ability of credit institutions to recycle their funds, this also weakened them by adversely affecting their profitability. The Reserve Bank and the Central Government, therefore, initiated several institutional measures to recover the past dues to banks and FIs and reduce the NPAs. These were 125

Debt Recover y Tribunals (DRTs), Lok Adalats (peoples courts), Asset Reconstruction Companies (ARCs) and the Corporate Debt Restructuring (CDR) mechanism. Settlement Advisory Committees have also been formed at regional and head office levels of commercial banks. Furthermore, banks can also issue notices under the Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interest (SARFAESI) Act, 2002 for enforcement of security interest without intervention of courts. Further, banks, Fls and NBFCs (excluding securitisation companies/ reconstruction companies) have been permitted to undertake sale/purchase of NPAs. Thus, banks and other credit institutions have been given a menu of options to resolve their NPA problems. 4.29 Diversification of credit risk is essential for expanding the flow of credit. Excessive concentration of lending to certain sectors leads to a higher risk burden. There are various options available for sharing of risk. Asset securitisation allows banks to conserve regulatory capital, diversify asset risks and structure products to reflect investors preferences (IMF, 2006). There are various instruments for sharing and transferring credit risk. One such instrument is asset securitisation (Box IV.3). 4.30 With a view to ensuring healthy development of the securitisation market, the Reserve Bank issued guidelines on securitisation of standard assets on February 1, 2006 to banks, financial institutions and non-banking financial companies. 4.31 Comprehensive credit information, which provides details pertaining to credit facilities already availed of by a borrower as well as his repayment track record, is critical for the smooth operations of the credit market. Lack of credit history is an important factor affecting the credit flow to relatively less creditworthy borrowers. In the absence of credit history, pricing of credit can be arbitrary, the perceived credit risk can be higher and there can be adverse selection and moral hazard. Accordingly, a scheme for disclosure of information regarding defaulting borrowers of banks and financial institutions was introduced. In order to facilitate sharing of information relating to credit matters, a Credit Information Bureau (India) Limited (CIBIL) was set up in 2000 (Box IV.4). 4.32 Most of the reform measures initiated for commercial banks such as deregulation of lending interest rates, prudential norms relating to capital adequacy/asset classification provisioning, and NPAs management were also extended to other credit institutions as well with some modifications as appropriate.

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Box IV.2 Credit Market Reforms

Lending Interest Rates Lending interest rates of commercial banks were deregulated in October 1994 and banks were required to announce their prime lending rates (PLRs). The Reserve Bank mooted the concept of benchmark prime lending rate (BPLR) on April 29, 2003 to address the need for transparency in banks lending rates as also to reduce the complexity involved in pricing of loans. Banks now are free to prescribe respective BPLRs, as also lend at sub-BPLR rates. Banks are also permitted to offer floating rate loan products linked to a market benchmark in a transparent manner. Banks were advised to adopt graded higher provisioning in respect of: (a) secured portion of NPAs included in 'doubtful' for more than three years category; and (b) NPAs which have remained in 'doubtful' category for more than three years as on March 31, 2004. Provisioning ranging from 60 per cent to 100 pre cent over a period of three years in a phased manner, from the year ended March 31, 2005 has been prescribed. However, in respect of all advances classified as 'doubtful for more than three years' on or after April 1, 2004, the provisioning requirement has been stipulated at 100 per cent. The provisioning requirement for unsecured portion of NPAs under the above category was retained at 100 per cent. Banks were subject to capital adequacy norms in 1994, according to which, banks were required to maintain capital to risk weighted asset ratio of 8 per cent. Subsequently, the ratio was raised to 9 per cent in 1999.

Term-lending by Banks Various restrictions on term loans by banks were gradually phased out by 1997. In terms of the guidelines prevailing before the initiation of economic reforms in 1991, banks were expected to extend term loans for small projects in participation with the State level institutions, though it was not mandatory. For large projects, however, they were allowed to participate compulsorily in participation with all-India FIs, subject to the condition that the share of the banking system would be restricted to 25 per cent of term loan assistance from banks and FIs and the aggregate term finance from the banking system could not exceed Rs.75 crore.

Exposure Limits Regulatory limits on banks exposure to individual and group borrowers in India were prescribed to avoid concentration of credit The applicable limit is 15 per cent of capital funds in the case of a single borrower and 40 per cent in the case of a group of borrowers. Credit exposure to borrowers belonging to a group may exceed the exposure norm of 40 per cent of banks capital funds by an additional 10 per cent (i.e., up to 50 per cent), provided the additional credit exposure is on account of extension of credit to infrastructure projects. Credit exposure to a single borrower may exceed the exposure norm of 15 per cent of banks capital funds by an additional 5 per cent (i.e., up to 20 per cent). In addition, banks may, in exceptional circumstances, with the approval of their boards, consider enhancement of the exposure to a borrower up to a further 5 per cent of capital funds.

Asset Classification and Provisioning, and Capital Adequacy In terms of asset classification and provisioning norms prescribed in 1994, banks are required to classify assets into four categories, viz., standard assets, substandard assets, doubtful assets and loss assets, with appropriate provisioning requirements for each category of assets. The concept of past due in the identification of nonperforming assets (NPAs) was dispensed with effective from March 2001, and the 90-day delinquency norm was adopted for the classification of NPAs with effect from March 2004. As a major step towards tightening of prudential norms from the year ended March 2005, an asset is required to be classified as doubtful if it remains in the sub-standard category for 12 months as against the earlier norm of 18 months. Banks are now required to make provisioning against standard assets to the tune of 0.40 per cent except for certain specified sectors. These include direct advances to agriculture and SME sectors (0.25 per cent), residential housing loan beyond Rs.20 lakh (1.0 per cent) and personal loans (2.0 per cent). (In case of specified sectors, the general provisioning requirement increased from 0.4 per cent to 1.0 per cent in May 2006 and further to 2.0 per cent in January 2007).

Competition Enhancing Measures Public sector banks were allowed to raise capital from the equity market up to 49 per cent of the paid-up capital. A comprehensive policy framework was laid down on February 28, 2005 for ownership and governance in private sector banks. The broad principles underlying the framework ensure that : (i) ultimate ownership and control is well diversified; (ii) important shareholders are fit and proper; (iii) directors and CEO are fit and proper and observe sound corporate governance principles; (iv) private sector banks maintain minimum capital (initially Rs.200 crore, with a commitment to increase to Rs.300 crore within three years)/net worth (Rs.300 crore at all times) for optimal operations and for systemic stability; and (v) policy and processes are transparent and fair.

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Box IV.3 Asset Securitisation

Securitisation is a process through which illiquid assets are transformed into a more liquid form of assets and distributed to a broad range of investors through capital markets. The lending institutions assets are removed from its balance sheet and are instead funded by investors through a negotiable financial instrument. The security is backed by the expected cash flows from the assets. Securitisation as a technique gained popularity in the advanced countries in the 1970s. Favourable tax treatment, legislative enactments, establishment of Government-backed institutions that extend guarantees, and a pragmatic regulatory environment appear to have contributed to the successful development of this market. Securitisation involves pooling similar assets together in a separate legal entity or special purpose vehicle (SPV) and redirecting the cash flows from the asset pool to the new securities issued by the SPV. The SPV is a device to ensure that the underlying assets are insulated from the risks of default by the originator of the assets. In general, there are two main advantages of securitisation. First, it can turn ordinary illiquid assets into reasonably liquid instruments. Second, it can create instruments of high credit quality out of debt of low credit quality. Securitisation is designed to offer a number of advantages to the seller, investor and the debt market. For the seller or originator, securitisation mainly results in receivables being replaced by cash, thereby improving the liquidity position. It removes the assets from the balance sheet of the originator, thus, freeing capital for other uses, and enabling restructuring of the balance sheet by reducing large exposures or sectoral concentration. It facilitates better asset liability management (ALM) by reducing market risks resulting from interest rate mismatches. The process also enables the issuer to recycle assets more frequently and thereby improves earnings. For investors, securitisation essentially provides an avenue for relatively lower risk investment. Credit enhancement provides an opportunity to investors to acquire good quality assets and to diversify their portfolios. From the point of view of the financial system as a whole, securitisation increases the number of debt instruments in the market, and provides additional liquidity in the market. It also facilitates unbundling, better allocation and management of project risks. It widens the market by attracting new players due to availability of superior quality assets. Securitisation, however, if not carried out prudently can leave risks with the originating bank without allocating capital to back them. The main risk for a bank arises if a true sale has not been achieved and the selling bank is forced to recognise some or all of the losses if the assets subsequently cease to perform. Also, funding risks and constraints on liquidity may arise if assets designed to be secur itised have been or iginated, but because of disturbances in the market, the securities cannot be placed. There is also a view that there is at least a potential conflict of interest if bank originates, sells, services and underwrites the same issue of securities. Reference: BIS. 2006a. Quarterly Review, June.

4.33 The credit derivatives are gaining increasing popularity in many countries. Since the early 1990s,

there has been proliferation of different types of credit derivatives in several countries (Box IV.5).

Box IV.4 Credit Information Bureaus

Credit bureaus (or credit reference agencies) are useful as they help lenders to assess credit worthiness of individual borrowers and their ability to pay back a loan. As credit bureaus collect and collate personal financial data on individuals from financial institutions, a form of price discrimination can be modelled taking into account credit rating and past behaviour of borrowers. The information is generally aggregated and made available on request to contributing companies for the pur poses of credit assessment and credit scoring. Establishment of credit information bureaus can facilitate in obtaining the credit history of the borrowers and, thus, help the banks in correctly assessing the creditworthiness. The CIBIL provides a vital service, which allows its members to make informed, objective and faster credit decisions. CIBILs aim is to fulfill the need of credit granting institutions for comprehensive credit information by collecting, collating and disseminating credit information pertaining to both commercial and consumer borrowers, to a closed user group of members. Banks, financial institutions, non-banking financial companies, housing finance companies and credit card companies use CIBILs services. Data sharing is based on the principle of reciprocity, which means that only members who have submitted all their credit data, may access Credit Information Reports from CIBIL. With a view to strengthening the legal mechanism and facilitating credit information companies to collect, process and share credit information on borrowers of banks/FIs, a draft Credit Information Companies (Regulation) Bill was passed in May 2005 and notified in June 2005. The Government and the Reserve Bank have framed rules and regulations for implementation of the Act, with specific provisions for protecting individual borrowers rights and obligations. The rules and regulations were notified on December 14, 2006. In terms of the provisions of the Act, after obtaining the certificate of registration from the Reserve Bank to commence/carry on business of credit information companies will be able to collect all types of credit information (positive as well as negative) from their member credit institutions and disseminate the same in the form of credit reports to the specified users/individuals.

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4.34 The risk management architecture of banks in India has strengthened and they are on the way to becoming Basel II compliant, providing adequate comfort level for the introduction of credit derivatives. Accordingly, the Reserve Bank, as part of the gradual

process of financial sector liberalisation in India, per mitted banks and primar y dealers to begin transacting in single-entity credit default swaps (CDS) in its Annual Policy Statement for 2007-08 released on April 24, 2007.

Box IV.5 Credit Derivatives

A credit derivative is a contract (derivative) to transfer the risk of the total return on a credit asset falling below an agreed level, without transfer of the underlying asset. This is usually achieved by transferring risk on a credit reference asset. Early forms of credit derivatives were financial guarantees. Three common forms of credit derivatives are credit default swap (CDS), total return swap (TRS) and credit linked note (CLN). Credit derivatives are designed to allow independent trading/hedging of credit risk. It is also possible to transfer and/or transform credit risk through securitisation. Credit derivative is a logical extension of two of the most significant developments in the financial markets, viz., securitisation and derivatives. A CDS consists of swapping, usually on an ongoing basis, the risk premium inherent in an interest rate on a bond or a loan in return for a cash payment that is made in the event of default by the debtor. The CDS has become the main driver of the credit derivatives market, offering liquid price discovery and trading on which the rest of the market is based. It is an agreement between a protection buyer and a protection seller, whereby the buyer pays a periodic fee in return for a contingent payment by the seller upon a credit event happening in the reference entity. The contingent payment usually replicates the loss incurred by creditor of the reference entity in the event of its default. It covers only the credit risk embedded in the asset, risks arising from other factors, such as interest rate movements, remain with the buyer. A TRS also known as total rate of return swap is a contract between two counterparties, whereby they swap periodic payments for the period of the contract. Typically, one party receives the total return (interest payments plus any capital gains or losses for the payment period) from a specified reference asset, while the other receives a specified fixed or floating cash flow that is not related to the creditworthiness of the reference asset, as with a vanilla interest rate swap. The payments are based upon the same notional amount. The reference asset may be any asset, index or basket of assets. The TRS is simply a mechanism that allows one party to derive the economic benefit of owning an asset without use of the balance sheet, and which allows the other to effectively "buy protection" against loss in value due to ownership of a credit assets. While the CDS provides protection against specific credit events, the total return swap protects against the loss of value irrespective of cause, whether default and widening of credit spreads, among others. A CLN is an instrument whose cash flow depends upon a credit event, which can be a default, credit spread, or rating change. The definition of the relevant credit events must be negotiated by the parties to the note. A CLN, in effect, combines a credit-default swap with a regular note (with coupon, maturity, redemption). Given its regular-note features, a CLN is an on-balance sheet asset, unlike a CDS. Banks and the financial institutions derive at least three main benefits from credit der ivatives. One, credit derivatives allow banks to transfer credit risk and hence free up capital, which can be used for other productive purposes. Two, banks can conduct business on existing client relationships in excess of exposure norms and transfer away the risks. For instance, a bank which has hit its exposure limits with a client group may have to turn down a lucrative guarantee deal. However, with credit derivatives, the bank can take up the guarantee and maintain its exposure limits by transferring the credit risk on the guarantee or previous exposures. This allows bank to maintain client relationships. Three, banks can construct and manage a credit risk portfolio of their own choice and risk appetite unconstrained by funds, distribution and sales effort. However, the use of credit derivatives also raises some concerns. One, some of the credit derivatives, which are being used, are at their infancy and need to mature. Introduction of such products, therefore, may be potentially destabilising. Two, the measurement and management of credit risk is much more complicated than market risk. Third, documentation risk is an important aspect of credit derivatives. Fourth, certain incentive issues arise with the use of credit derivatives. This is because such instruments typically change the under lying borrower-lender relationship and establish new relationships between lenders that become risk shedders and the new risk takers. This new relationship has the potential for market failure due, for instance, to asymmetric information. Reference: The Reserve Bank of India. 2003. Report of Working Group on Introduction of Credit Derivatives in India (Convenor: B. Mahapatra). Mumbai, March. IMF. 2002. Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual. Ueda Kazuo. 2003. On Credit Risk Transfer Instruments and Central Banks. 18th Annual General Meeting, Tokyo, April.

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IV. TRENDS IN CREDIT THE 1990s AND ONWARDS Credit Trends All Institutions 4.35 Total loans outstanding by all credit institutions (commercial banks, DFIs and cooperatives) combined together increased at a compound annual rate of 15.7 per cent during the 1990s and by 17.7 per cent per annum during the current decade so far (up to 2005-06). As percentage of GDP, loans outstanding increased from 34.2 per cent at end-March 1991 to 54.1 per cent at end-March 2006, suggesting increased credit penetration in the country (Table 4.1). 4.36 Dur ing the 1990s, the credit growth of commercial banks was lower than that of credit institutions in the co-operative sector. However, the trend has reversed during the current decade (up to 2005-06) with credit growth of commercial banks being significantly higher than the credit growth of the co-operative institutions. Credit growth of NBFCs during the first five years of the current decade was significantly lower than the growth of total credit by all institutions. Loans and advances by DFIs declined Table 4.1: Total Outstanding Credit by all Credit Institutions
End-March Total Credit Outstanding (Rs. crore) 2 1,94,654 3,47,125 7,25,074 7,94,125 8,93,384 10,77,409 11,99,607 14,81,587 19,28,336 Annual Growth (Per cent) 3 22.7 17.1 9.5 12.5 20.6 11.3 23.5 30.2 Credit-GDP Ratio (Per cent) 4 34.2 34.3 37.1 37.8 39.2 43.8 43.4 47.4 54.1

during the period from 2000-01 to 2005-06, essentially due to the conversions of two large DFIs into banks (Table 4.2). 4.37 Reflecting movements in growth rates, the share of commercial banks credit in total outstanding credit by all institutions increased significantly from 59.7 per cent at end-March 1991 to 78.2 per cent at end-March 2006. During the same period, the share of RRBs and SCARDBs also increased marginally. The share of all other credit institutions declined. Apart from aggressive retail lending strategies adopted by commercial banks, which captured some of the businesses of NBFCs, increased and diversified lending into rural areas contributed to the rise in the share of commercial banks. Conversion of two DFIs into commercial banks also contributed to the increase in the share of commercial banks in the current decade and a sharp decline in the share of FIs (Table 4.3). In the case of co-operative institutions, which are financially weak and inadequately capitalised, reforms have been initiated very recently, which may help in reversing the declining share of co-operative institutions. 4.38 Since commercial banks account for more than three-fourths of total credit outstanding and detailed data on credit by other institutions are not readily available, analysis in the remaining part of the chapter is based largely on credit extended by scheduled commercial banks. Table 4.2: Institution-wise Growth of Outstanding Credit (Compound Annual Growth Rate)
(Per cent) Category 1 1. Commercial Banks 2. RRBs (and LABs) 3. Financial Institutions 4. Urban Cooperative Banks 5. State Cooperative Banks 6. District Central Cooperative Banks 7. Primary Agricultural Credit Societies 8. SCARDBs 9. PCARDBs All Institutions 1991-92 to 1999-2000 2 15.8 15.4 14.2 21.4 16.3 16.0 17.9 27.0 15.9 15.7 2000-01 to 2005-06 3 23.0 21.1 -5.9 7.3 7.6 10.3 9.3 7.5 9.1 17.7

1 1991 1995 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Compound Annual Growth Rate (Per cent) 1991 to 2000 2000 to 2006 Note 15.7 17.7

: 1. Data are provisional. 2. Data include commercial banks, RRBs, LABs, DFIs, UCBs, STCBs, DCCBs, PACSs, SCARDBs and PCARDBs. 3. In case of non-availability of data for select co-operatives, data for the previous year have been repeated. Source : Report on Trend and Progress of Banking in India, various issues, Reserve Bank of India.

Note : Data are provisional. Source : Report on Trend and Progress of Banking in India, various issues, Reserve Bank of India.

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Table 4.3: Distribution of Credit Category-wise Share

(Per cent) Category 1991 1 1. Commercial Banks 2. RRBs (and LABs) 3. All-India Financial Institutions 4. Urban Co-operative Banks 5. State Co-operative Banks 6. District Central Co-operative Banks 7. Primary Agricultural Credit Societies 8. SCARDBs 9. PCARDBs All Institutions 2 59.7 1.8 24.9 4.1 3.4 6.0 3.3 0.7 1.0 100.0 End-March 2006 3 78.2 2.1 5.8 3.6 2.1 4.2 2.5 0.9 0.7 100.0

Note : Data are provisional. Source : Report on Trend and Progress of Banking in India, various issues, Reserve Bank of India.

the mid-1990s made banks cautious. Application of norms revealed large gross NPAs with banks (15.7 per cent of their gross advances at end-March 1997). Banks, therefore, became wary of enlarging their loan por tfolio. The relatively high level of NPAs, in particular, had a severe impact on weak banks. Banks capacity to extend credit was also impaired due to little headroom available in the capital adequacy ratio (8.7 per cent at end-March 1996). Banks found riskadjusted returns on government securities more attractive. Hence, despite lowering of statutory preemption in the form of SLR, banks continued to invest in government securities, far in excess of the requirements. Banks investment in SLR securities at end-March 1996 was 36.9 per cent of net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) as against the statutor y requirement of 31.5 per cent. Banks investments in SLR securities remained more or less at that level (36.7 per cent) by end-March 2002, even as the SLR was brought down significantly to 25 per cent. 4.40 On the demand side also, several factors contributed to the decline in demand for credit by the corporate sector. The industrial sector witnessed massive expansion in capacity in certain sectors, especially cement and steel, in the initial phase of reforms. However, as the quantitative restrictions were removed and import tariffs reduced, the corporate sector faced intense competition during the latter part of the 1990s. The focus of the corporate sector, thus, shifted from expanding capacity to restructuring and the industrial sector slowed down significantly. The average annual growth rate of industrial production was 5.2 per cent during 1996-97 to 2001-02 as compared with 9.4 per cent in the preceding three years. This affected the demand for credit by the corporate sector. Increased competition also forced cor porates to restructure their balance sheets, whereby they increased their reliance on retained earnings and reduced their borrowings. This was evident from the debt-equity ratio, which declined from an average of 85.5 per cent during 1990-91 to 199495 to 65.2 per cent during 1995-96 to 1999-2000 (see Table 7.5 of Chapter VII). 4.41 Although the Reser ve Bank pursued accommodative monetary policy during this period (1996-97 to 2001-02) by reducing the CRR and the policy rates, viz., the Bank Rate and the reverse repo rate (the then repo rate), credit offtake did not pick up. Downward stickiness of nominal interest rates on the one hand, and falling inflation rate on the other, led to a significant rise in real interest rates. The average real lending rates of banks increased to 12.5 per cent during 1996-97 to 2001-02 as against 6.5 130

Trends in Scheduled Commercial Bank Credit 4.39 Bank credit, after witnessing an erratic pattern in the first half of the 1990s, showed a deceleration from 1996-97 to 2001-02, growing at an average annual rate of 15.1 per cent as compared with 19.5 per cent in the preceding four years (Chart IV.2). Several factors, both on the demand and the supply sides, contributed to the contraction of credit. On the supply side, introduction of prudential norms relating to income recognition, asset classification and provisioning in
Chart IV.2: Bank Credit and Non-food Credit Growth

Growth Rate (per cent)

Total Bank Credit

Non-food Credit

CREDIT MARKET

per cent during 1990-91 to 1995-96 (Mohan, 2003). This also appeared to have contributed to slackness in credit expansion. 4.42 Credit growth accelerated in 2002-03 only to decelerate shar ply in 2003-04 even when the industr ial sector was buoyant due mainly to contraction in food credit and increased recourse by corporates to internal sources of financing and increased external commercial borrowings. During 2004-05 to 2006-07, bank credit expanded at a robust pace of around 30 per cent. Major factors that contributed to the acceleration in credit growth were pick-up in economic growth, improvement in asset quality of the credit institutions, moderation in inflation and inflation expectations, decline in real interest rates, rising income of households and increased competition with the entry of new private sector banks (as detailed in the subsequent sections). The removal of restrictions on retail credit and project finance by banks also created new sources of credit demand. Sectoral Deployment of Credit 4.43 Reforms and the evolving economic structure had a profound impact on the flow of bank credit to various sectors of the economy during the 1990s and the current decade. Credit growth to agriculture during the 1990s slowed down to almost one-half as compared with the 1980s (Table 4.4). However, the trend was reversed beginning from 2002-03 as a result of concerted efforts made by the Reserve Bank and the Government to increase the flow of credit to agriculture. Credit to the industrial sector slowed

down, albeit marginally, in the 1990s and the current decade as compared with the 1980s. A significant development during the current decade, however, has been the rapid credit expansion to the household sector (personal loans) in the form of housing and other retail loans. 4.44 The share of agriculture and industrial sectors in total bank credit declined between end-March 1990 and end-March 2005, while that of personal loans and professional services increased sharply. Agriculture 4.45 As a result of the sharp deceleration in the growth of credit to agriculture, the share of agriculture in total bank credit declined sharply from 15.9 per cent at end-March 1990 to 9.6 per cent by end-March 2001 (Table 4.5). During this period, however, the share of agriculture in GDP also declined significantly. As a result, credit intensity of the agriculture sector (credit to agriculture sector as percentage of sectoral GDP) remained broadly at the same level. In the early part of the current decade, the Government and the Reserve Bank took a series of measures to facilitate the flow of credit to the agriculture sector. These, inter alia, included: (i) rescheduling of short-term loans to medium and long-term loans, following agricultural distress in several parts of the country; (ii) higher targets fixed under the Special Agricultural Credit Plans of public sector banks and making it applicable to private sector banks also; and (iii) advising banks to double the flow of credit within three years starting from 2004-05. Credit growth to agriculture picked up

Table 4.4: Sector-Wise Credit of Commercial Banks Compound Annual Growth Rate
(Per cent) Period Agriculture Industry Transport Professional Operators Services 4 13.6 9.4 11.2 5 20.7 16.8 30.4 Personal Loans 6 25.3 22.7 37.7 Trade Finance Total Bank Credit 9 17.2 16.0 20.2

1 1980-81 to 1989-90 1990-91 to 1999-00 2000-01 to 2004-05 Memo: End-March 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

2 18.1 10.6 22.2

3 17.4 15.4 15.9

7 11.8 17.3 12.6

8 29.2 25.6 27.4

13.3 23.7 18.6 26.7 29.2

10.6 14.9 14.1 8.1 33.5

7.7 7.1 0.9 18.7 22.8

31.3 44.0 22.4 29.5 25.8

27.7 25.1 38.1 57.2 42.9

25.0 12.7 3.2 -2.5 27.8

21.0 42.2 34.6 16.4 24.3

17.0 21.8 15.2 16.4 30.9

Source: Basic Statistical Returns of Scheduled Commercial Banks, various issues, Reserve Bank of India.

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Table 4.5: Distribution of Outstanding Credit of Scheduled Commercial Banks

(Per cent to total credit) End-March Sector 1 Agriculture Industry Transport Personal Loans and Professional Services of which: Loans for Purchase of Consumer Durables Loans for Housing Trade Financial Institutions Miscellaneous / All Others Total Mar-90 2 15.9 48.7 3.2 9.4 0.4 2.4 13.9 2.1 6.8 100.0 Mar-95 3 11.8 45.6 1.9 11.3 0.3 2.8 17.1 3.8 8.5 100.0 Mar-00 4 9.9 46.5 1.8 14.4 0.6 4.0 15.6 4.8 7.1 100.0 Mar-01 5 9.6 43.9 1.6 15.8 0.6 4.7 16.6 4.9 7.5 100.0 Mar-02 6 9.8 41.4 1.4 16.8 0.5 5.0 15.4 5.7 9.5 100.0 Mar-03 7 10.0 41.0 1.2 19.6 0.4 6.5 13.8 6.7 7.7 100.0 Mar-04 8 10.9 38.0 1.3 25.3 0.5 9.7 11.5 6.7 6.2 100.0 Mar-05 9 10.8 38.8 1.2 27.0 0.6 11.0 11.2 6.4 4.6 100.0

Source: Basic Statistical Returns of Scheduled Commercial Banks in India, various issues, Reserve Bank of India.

significantly from 2003-04 onwards. The share of agricultural credit in total bank credit also increased to 10.8 per cent by end-March 2005. The gap between the share of agriculture credit in total bank credit and its share in GDP narrowed down to less than 8 percentage points at end-March 2006 from 17.4 per cent

at end-March 1995. Furthermore, credit intensity of the agriculture sector increased sharply from 11.1 per cent in 2001-02 to 27.0 per cent by 2005-06 (Chart IV.3). The number of borrowal accounts in the agriculture sector also increased to 26.66 millions in 2004-05 from 19.84 millions in 2000-01.

Chart IV.3: Sectoral GDP and Credit

Outstanding Credit as percentage of Sectoral GDP

Share of Agriculture Sector in GDP and Non-Food Credit

Credit Intensity of Agriculture

Per cent

Share in NFC

Share in GDP

Share in NFC

Share in GDP

Share in NFC

Share in GDP

132

Outstanding Credit as percentage of Sectoral GDP

Share of Services Sector in GDP and Non-Food Credit

Outstanding Credit as percentage of Sectoral GDP

Share of Industry in GDP and Non-Food Credit

Credit Intensity of Industry

Per cent

Credit Intensity of Services

Per cent

CREDIT MARKET

Trends in Priority Sector Advances 4.46 Prior to the nationalisation of banks in 1969, banks lending was confined primarily to big business and trading in the metropolitan and urban centres. After the nationalisation of banks, the Government of India undertook corrective measures to rectify the lopsided lending by banks. Accordingly, in 1972, banks

were advised to extend credit to certain activities, known as the priority sectors. With a view to aligning bank credit to the changing needs of society, the scope and definition of the priority sector have been continuously fined-tuned by including new items as also by enhancing credit limit of the constituent subsectors (Box IV.6).

Box IV.6 Policies Relating to the Priority Sector, Micro-finance and Credit Cards in Rural Areas
Priority Sector months, while term loans are repayable within a maximum period of 5 years, depending on the type of activity/investment.

Domestic scheduled commercial banks and foreign

banks are required to extend a minimum of 40 per cent and 32 per cent, respectively, of their net bank credit (NBC) to the priority sector with sub-targets set for lending to various sub-sectors.

The Scheme is being implemented by all commercial

banks, RRBs, state co-operative banks/DCCBs/PACS and scheduled primary co-operative banks. General Credit Card

Major categories of priority sector credit include

agriculture and allied activities, small scale industries, housing loans and education loans, among others.

The guidelines on general credit cards (GCC) were

issued on December 27, 2005, with a view to providing easy credit to banks customers in rural areas.

The scope of the priority sector has been expanded

over the years to include export activity, education, housing, software industry, venture capital, leasing and hire purchase. Micro-finance

The objective of the GCC scheme is to provide hasslefree credit to the customers of banks based on the assessment of cash flow without insistence on security, purpose or end-use of the credit. This is in the nature of overdraft or cash-credit with no end-use stipulations.

The SHG-bank linkage programme, launched in India

in 1992 as a pilot project, envisages (i) organising the rural poor into Self-help Groups (SHGs); (ii) building their capacities to manage their own finances; and (iii) then negotiating bank credit on commercial terms.

GCC may not necessarily be in the form of a card and

can be issued in the form of a Pass Book, if the holder of GCC desires to operate cash withdrawals from bank branch.

The target-group broadly comprises small and marginal

farmers, landless agricultural and non-agricultural labourers, artisans and craftsmen, and other rural poor engaged in small businesses such as vending and hawking.

The credit facility extended under the scheme is in the

nature of revolving credit. The GCC holder is entitled to draw cash up to the limit sanctioned from the specified branch of the bank.

There are two major models under micro-finance,

namely, Self-Help Group-Bank Linkage (SHG-BL) and Micro-Finance Institutions (MFIs). Kisan Credit Card

Banks have the flexibility to fix the limit on GCC based

on the assessment of income and cash flow of the entire household. However, total credit facility under GCC for an individual should not exceed Rs.25,000 and interest rate on the facility may be charged, as considered appropriate and reasonable.

The Kisan Credit Card (KCC) scheme, introduced in

August 1998, enables farmers to purchase agricultural inputs and draw cash for their production needs.

Banks may utilise the services of local post offices,

schools, primary health centers, local government functionaries, farmers association/club, well-established community-based agencies and civil society organisations for sourcing of borrowers for issuing GCC.

The Scheme was revised in November 2004 to cover

term credit as well as working capital for agriculture and allied activities, in addition to short-term credit limits available separately for crop/s.

To incentivise the banks to issue GCC, fifty per cent of

credit outstanding under GCC, up to Rs.25,000, is eligible for being treated as indirect agricultural financing for the purpose of priority sector target.

Short-term credit/crop loans as well as working capital

for agriculture and allied activities are repayable in 12

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4.47 Credit growth to the priority sector showed a distinct improvement in recent years growing at an average annual rate of 25.7 per cent during the period from 2000-01 to 2005-06 as compared with 13.1 per cent during the 1990s. This was mainly due to increased lending to cer tain sectors such as agriculture and housing. Despite this increase, priority sector advances declined from 40.1 per cent of non food gross bank credit (NFGBC) at end-March 1990 to 36.3 per cent by end-March 2006 (Table 4.6). With higher credit growth during 2004-05 and 2005-06 by both public and private sector banks, the priority sector credit target of 40.0 per cent of net bank credit (NBC) was achieved by end-March 2006. 4.48 Within the priority sector, credit to agriculture, which grew at an average annual rate of 11.2 per cent during the 1990s, accelerated to 25.7 per cent during the six-year period ended March 2006. Despite this increase, the share of agriculture in total priority sector advances declined from 40.9 per cent at end-March 1990 to 33.8 per cent at end-March 2006 (Table 4.6). The share of agricultural loans as per cent of NBC of public sector banks was at 15.3 per cent at end-March

2005 and 15.2 per cent at end-March 2006. The agriculture loans as per cent of NBC of private sector banks at 13.5 per cent each at end-March 2005 and 2006 were, much, lower than the stipulated target of 18 per cent. Some banks, especially new private sector banks and foreign banks, lack adequate branch network in rural areas as a result of which some of these banks find it difficult to achieve their priority sector credit targets. To address the problem, banks were asked to make deposits, to the extent of shortfall, in the Rural Infrastructure Development Fund (RIDF) of the National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development (NABARD) for achieving the lending target. Foreign banks are required to make deposits in the Small Industries Development Bank of India (SIDBI). 4.49 For increasing the flow of credit to agriculture and other rural sectors of the economy, several innovative measures were initiated in the form of SelfHelp Group (SHG) - Bank Linkage programme and Kisan Credit Card (KCC) schemes. Micro-finance is now increasingly being recognised as a cost effective and sustainable way of expanding outreach of the

Table 4.6: Trends in Outstanding Priority Sector Advances

(Amount in Rs. crore) Total Priority Sector Advances End-March Amount Annual Growth (Per cent) 3 18.0 6.3 5.8 9.7 8.1 19.1 14.3 15.8 17.2 15.2 15.0 17.1 13.5 20.7 24.7 44.6 33.7 Per cent of NFGBC 4 40.1 37.8 37.4 35.5 36.9 34.7 33.0 33.8 34.6 35.2 35.1 36.0 36.3 34.1 36.2 38.2 36.3 Agriculture Advances Amount Annual Growth (Per cent) 6 18.5 1.4 8.4 9.9 6.2 13.1 12.8 16.3 10.9 13.7 12.0 17.0 17.0 21.0 23.2 38.3 37.6 Per cent of NFGBC 7 16.4 14.8 15.0 14.2 14.5 13.0 12.2 12.5 12.1 12.2 11.8 12.1 12.6 11.9 12.4 12.5 12.3 Amount SSI Advances Annual Growth (Per cent) 9 18.3 10.5 5.6 10.3 12.9 22.2 15.4 12.7 21.0 11.4 8.9 6.0 2.1 5.6 9.0 13.3 21.0 Per cent of NFGBC 10 15.4 15.1 15.0 14.3 15.5 15.0 14.4 14.3 15.1 14.9 14.1 13.0 11.8 9.7 9.0 7.5 6.4

1 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

2 40,383 42,915 45,425 49,832 53,880 64,161 73,329 84,880 99,507 1,14,611 1,31,827 1,54,414 1,75,259 2,11,609 2,63,834 3,81,476 5,09,910

5 16,526 16,750 18.157 19,963 21,208 23,983 27,044 31,442 34,869 39,634 44,381 51,922 60,761 73,518 90,541 1,25,250 1,72,292

8 15,543 17,181 18,150 20,026 22,617 27,638 31,884 35,944 43,508 48,483 52,814 56,002 57,199 60,394 65,855 74,588 90,239

Average Annual Growth (Per cent) 1990 to 2000 2001 to 2006 13.1 25.7 11.2 25.7 13.6 9.5

NFGBC: Non Food Gross Bank Credit. Source: Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy, 2005-06, Reserve Bank of India.

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banking sector to the rural poor. The relative absence of interest subsidies, the high repayment performance and reduced transaction costs to lenders are some of the major advantages of micro-finance. There is now a growing realisation among the lending agencies that micro-finance programmes are bankable, creditwor thy and profitable. Banks are now discovering that people at the bottom of the pyramid can be brought into their business models. 4.50 The SHG-Bank Linkage programme is one of the two models of micro-finance. The flow of credit to the rural sector is hampered for two reasons. One, credit is largely collateral based, and two, loan delinquencies are generally higher. Formation of joint liability groups in the for m of SHGs helps in overcoming both these problems. The responsibility for repayment of the loan is borne jointly by all the members of SHGs, who are engaged in some economic activity that generates the income needed for the repayment. Experience of SHGs in countries such as Bangladesh also shows that loan delinquency is lower in the case of SHGs due to peer pressure. The main advantages of the program are on-time repayment of loans to banks; reduction in transaction costs for both, the poor and the banks; door-step savings and credit facilities available to the poor; and exploitation of the untapped business potential in rural India. 4.51 The Self-Help Group (SHG)-Bank Linkage programme has emerged as an important model of micro-finance activity in the country (see Box IV.5). As at end-March 2006, 2.2 million SHGs were linked to banks with cumulative bank loans amounting to Rs.11,398 crore (Table 4.7). The share of commercial banks in financing SHGs has increased over the years. The number of families assisted has increased by about five-fold from 5 million in 2001 to 24 million in 2005. Further, the average bank loan per SHG increased from Rs.18,227 in 2001 to Rs.32,012 in 2005. 4.52 The SHG-Bank Linkage programme, which till now has been concentrated largely in the Southern States, is expected to gain further ground with the NABARD taking up a programme for intensification of these activities in 13 identified States, accounting for 70.0 per cent of the rural poor population. 4.53 Although various types of products were available for providing credit to farmers, they lacked flexibility in terms of amount needed for day to day requirements and its timely availability. In order to meet the liquidity requirement of farmers in a flexible 135

Table 4.7: Progress of SHG-Bank Linkage Programme

Year Total SHGs financed by banks (Nos. 000) During the Year Cumulative During the Year Bank Loans (Rs. crore) Cumulative Cumulative as Per Cent of Total Bank Credit 6 0.02 0.04 0.09 0.17 0.28 0.46 0.63 0.76

1 1992-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

2 33 82 149 198 256 362 539 620

3 33 115 264 461 717 1,079 1,618 2,239

4 57 136 288 545 1,022 1,856 2,994 4,499

5 57 193 481 1,026 2,049 3,904 6,898 11,398

Source: NABARD and RBI.

manner, the Kisan Credit Card (KCC) scheme was introduced in August 1998 to enable the farmers to purchase agricultural inputs and draw cash for their production needs. At the inception of the scheme, it was envisaged that investment credit requirements of farmers, viz, allied and non-farm activities would also be covered under the scheme. Since these activities were outside the ambit of the KCC scheme as announced in 1998, farmers had to approach the banks separately for their additional requirements, entailing additional time and cost, and observing banks procedural for malities, including documentation. Therefore, revised KCC guidelines were issued in November 2004. The revised scheme aims at providing adequate and timely credit for the comprehensive credit requirements of farmers under a single window, with flexible and simplified procedures, adopting whole farm approach, including the shor t-ter m credit needs and a reasonable component for consumption needs (see Box IV.5). 4.54 The KCC scheme has since stabilised. The cumulative number of KCCs issued by commercial banks, RRBs and co-operatives was at 59 million at end-March 2006 and the cumulative amount sanctioned was Rs.1,81,992 crore. While the number of KCCs issued by commercial banks increased in recent years, those issued by co-operative banks and RRBs declined. The share of co-operative banks in the cumulative number of KCCs issued was 51.5 per cent, followed by commercial banks (36.9 per cent) and RRBs (11.6 per cent). The amount sanctioned as per cent of total outstanding loans was at 21.3 per cent

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 4.8: Progress of Kisan Credit Cards Scheme

(Numbers in Million; Amount in Rupees Crore) Year No. Co-operative Banks Amount* Share in Total Loans Outstanding (Per cent) 4 0.9 3.1 6.9 10.4 8.3 4.1 6.1 7.5 No. RRBs Amount* Share in Total Loans Outstanding (Per cent) 7 0.1 3.2 9.2 13.2 13.8 10.2 11.6 21.3 Commercial Banks No. Amount* Share in Loans Outstanding to Agriculture (Per cent) 10 3.6 7.2 9.5 11.6 9.3 9.4 11.2 9.8 No. Total Amount* Share in Aggregate Loans Outstanding# (Per cent) 13 1.6 4.2 7.8 10.9 9.0 5.9 8.1 9.5

1 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 Total @

2 0.16 3.60 5.61 5.44 4.58 4.88 3.56 2.60 30.41

3 826 3,606 9,412 15,952 15,841 9,855 15,597 20,339 91,428

5 0.01 0.17 0.65 0.83 0.96 1.27 1.73 1.25 6.88

6 11 405 1,400 2,382 2,955 2,599 3,833 8,483 22,068

8 0.62 1.37 2.39 3.07 2.70 3.09 4.40 4.16 21.80

9 1,473 3,537 5,615 7,524 7,481 9,331 14,756 18,779 68,496

11 0.78 5.13 8.65 9.34 8.24 9.25 9.68 8.01 59.09

12 2,310 7,548 16,427 25,858 26,277 21,785 34,186 47,601 1,81,992

*: Amount sanctioned. @ : Total represents aggregate number of cards issued and amounts sanctioned since 1998-99. # : Aggregate loans outstanding include total loans of co-operatives, RRBs and agricultural loans of commercial banks. Source: NABARD and RBI.

in case of RRBs and 7.5 per cent in case of cooperatives. Amount sanctioned by commercial banks as per cent of the total loans outstanding to agriculture was 9.8 per cent at end-March 2006 (Table 4.8). 4.55 Another important segment of the priority sector is the small scale industries (SSIs) sector. An analysis of credit flow to this sector is provided in the subsequent section. Industry 4.56 The credit extended to the industrial sector decelerated marginally in the 1990s (16.4 per cent) and the current decade so far (15.8 per cent) in comparison with the 1980s (16.7 per cent) (see Table 4.4). The share of industry in total bank credit declined sharply from 48.0 per cent at end-June 1990 to 38.8 per cent at end-March 2005 (see Table 4.5). 4.57 Banks support to the industrial sector in the for m of non-traditional instr uments such as commercial paper, shares/bonds/ debentures issued by corporates, which increased sharply in the second half of the 1990s, also declined/decelerated beginning with 2001-02 (Table 4.9). 4.58 Deceleration in the financial support by banks to industry, despite the robust performance of the industrial sector during last few years, was mainly due to their increased reliance on retained earnings and increased access to the domestic and international capital markets. Creditworthy corporates also resor ted to large exter nal commercial borrowings (Table 4.10). 136

4.59 As a result of reduced reliance of industry on bank credit, the gap between the share of the industrial sector in total non-food credit and its share in GDP narrowed down significantly. The industrial sector accounted for 54.3 per cent of bank credit as against its share of 22.0 per cent in GDP in 199091. By 2005-06, however, the share of the industrial sector in non-food credit declined sharply to 39.1 per cent, even as its share in GDP declined marginally to 20.8 per cent. This was reflected in increased credit intensity of industry, which was already significantly higher than the other sectors. Table 4.9: Non-SLR Investments of Scheduled Commercial Banks
EndMarch Share in Total Non-SLR Investments (Per cent) CP Shares Bonds/ Debentures Amount (Rs. crore) Total Non-SLR Investments Annual Share Growth in Total (Per Assets of cent) Banks (Per cent) 6 74.8 49.0 26.9 22.9 6.8 14.6 -4.2 5.3 -15.2 5.0 7 5.4 6.9 7.3 7.6 7.1 6.6 5.4 4.7 3.4 2.9

1 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

2 7.5 8.3 8.2 10.6 10.5 4.3 4.2 4.2 6.1 11.0

3 7.1 8.1 7.8 7.5 7.3 9.7 9.7 12.7 16.1 22.0

4 85.4 83.7 84.0 81.9 82.2 86.0 86.0 83.1 77.9 67.0

5 32,461 48,376 61,408 75,844 80,999 92,854 88,985 93,664 79,464 83,466

Note : Data based on last reporting Friday of the financial year. Data exclude banks investments in instruments of financial institutions and mutual funds. Source : Reserve Bank of India.

CREDIT MARKET

Table 4.10: Non-Bank Sources of Funds for Industry

(Rs. crore) Year Capital Issues * 2 2,171 2,484 2,350 2,505 1,951 642 2,422 10,456 13,781 ADR/GDR Issues + 3 2,144 3,433 1,528 3,426 3,098 2,960 7,262 External Commercial Borrowings $ 4 14,028 -2,504 2,993 -3,182 -11,308 -3,593 16,098 41,106 45,078 Issue of CPs # 5 854 3,270 893 183 1,378 -1,475 3,382 5,104 -1,517 Financial Assistance by FIs (net) 6 9,084 -3,469 -5,672 2,723 7,885 8,687 Retained Earnings ** 7 6,873 4,517 4,678 5,186 2,584 8,288 15,645 28,384 48,402@ Depreciation Provision ** 8 11,312 12,944 14,710 15,759 17,451 18,306 20,408 22,697 28,883

1 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

* : Gross issuances excluding issues by banks and financial institutions. Figures are not adjusted for banks investments in capital issues. + : Including Global Depository Receipts (GDRs)/American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds (FCCBs), excluding issuances by banks and financial institutions. $ : Including short-term credit and adjusted for redemption of RIBs and IMDs. # : Excluding issuances by financial institutions and banks investments in CPs. @ : Estimate; taken as 71.7 per cent of profits after tax, the same proportion as was observed for select companies in 2004-05. ** : Based on select non-government, non-financial public limited companies. : Not available. Note : Data are provisional. Source : Reserve Bank of India.

Credit intensity of industry rose despite the slowdown of credit to the SSI sector as explained subsequently. In this context, two important developments need to be noted. One, during this period two major DFIs conver ted into banks which, at the time of conversion, had a huge por tfolio of loans and advances. Although a portion of those loans might have been repaid, given the typical five to seven year matur ity of their loans, it is believed that the

converted entities might still be carrying a sizeable portion of those loans in their books. Two, banks now, apart from extending working capital finance, also extend medium and long-term finance, including for infrastructure projects. The share of medium and long-term credit to industry in total credit by banks to the industrial sector increased sharply from 17.5 per cent at end-March 1995 to 47.6 per cent by endMarch 2005 (Table 4.11).

Table 4.11: Type of Credit to Industry By Banks

(Rs. crore) End-March Short-Term Loans* Amount Share in Total Credit (Per cent) 3 82.5 81.7 79.6 78.0 76.1 74.3 74.8 63.0 59.5 57.9 52.4 Medium-Term Loans Amount Share in Total Credit (Per cent) 5 5.8 5.5 5.9 6.7 5.9 6.8 7.1 8.5 7.4 9.8 10.6 Long-Term Loans Amount Share in Total Credit (Per cent) 7 11.6 12.8 14.5 15.3 17.9 18.9 18.2 28.5 33.1 32.3 37.0 8 93,446 1,19,702 1,37,789 1,58,247 1,79,298 2,05,074 2,27,522 2,63,051 3,01,906 3,28,189 4,38,503 Total Credit

1 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

2 77,134 97,809 1,09,666 1,23,408 1,36,488 1,52,369 1,70,114 1,65,828 1,79,687 1,89,918 2,29,672

4 5,438 6,620 8,136 10,578 10,660 13,928 16,067 22,313 22,366 32,187 46,535

6 10,874 15,273 19,987 24,261 32,150 38,777 41,341 74,910 99,853 1,06,084 1,62,296

* : Short-term credit includes cash credit, overdraft, demand loans, packing credit, export trade bills purchased and discounted, export trade bills advanced against, advances against export cash incentives and duty drawback claims, inland bills purchased and discounted (trade and others), advances against import bills, foreign currency cheques, TCs/DDs/TTs/MTs purchased. Source: Basic Statistical Returns of Scheduled Commercial Banks in India, various issues, Reserve Bank of India.

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Table 4.12: Bank Credit to the Infrastructure Sector

(Rs. crore) End-March Sector 1 Infrastructure of which: Power Telecommunication Roads and Ports 1998 2 3,163 1999 3 5,941 (87.8) 2,109 2,273 1,559 2000 4 7,243 (21.9) 3,289 1,992 1,962 2001 5 11,349 (56.7) 5,246 3,644 2,459 2002 6 14,809 (30.5) 7,373 3,972 3,464 2003 7 26,297 (77.6) 15,042 5,779 5,476 2004 8 37,224 (41.6) 19,655 8,408 9,161 2005 9 79,009 (112.3) 38,744 15,794 14,472 2006 10 1,08,787 (37.7) 57,863 17,713 18,975

697 2,045 421

Note: 1. Figures in parentheses are annual growth rates. 2. Data relate to select SCBs, which account for around 90 per cent of the bank credit extended by all scheduled commercial banks. Source: Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy, 2005-06, Reserve Bank of India.

4.60 A part of the increase in medium and long-term credit to industry in recent years emanated from increased credit to the infrastructure sector (Table 4.12). 4.61 Short-term credit intensity of the industrial sector, which had risen sharply between 1997-98 and 2000-01, declined significantly thereafter (Chart IV.4). This mainly reflected the impact of two factors, viz., increased access of the domestic and the international capital markets and increase in the retained earnings of the corporate sector resulting from increased profitability. 4.62 As a result of sharp increase in medium and long-term credit, the share of short-term credit in overall credit has declined. Within short-term credit,
Chart IV.4: Short-term Credit Intensity of the Industrial Sector
Short-term Credit as Per cent of industrial GDP

the share of cash credit has declined sharply (Chart IV.5). Several factors appear to have contributed to this trend. One, corporates in recent years raised large resources through issuance of commercial paper (CP) and ECBs. Two, corporates have also become cash rich due to their improved profitability in recent years. Banks have traditionally extended credit to the industry largely in the form of cash credit limits and overdraft. This system, however, places the onus of cash management on banks rather than on the corporates. Hence, the shift in favour of demand loans in recent years is a healthy development. For working capital limit of Rs.10 crore and above, however, loan system was introduced in April 1995. The percentage of loan component was gradually
Chart IV.5: Types of Borrowings by the Private Corporate Sector

Share in Total Credit to Private Corporate Sector (per cent)

Overdraft

Long Term Loans

Cash Credit

Demand Loans

End-March

138

Inland and Foreign Bills

Medium Term Loans

Packing Credit

CREDIT MARKET

enhanced to 80 per cent. The loan system was liberalised in October 2001 with banks having freedom to decide the cash credit and loan component for working capital. Credit to the Small Scale Industries Sector 4.63 The small scale industries (SSI) sector is an important segment of the Indian economy. However, credit flow to the small scale industries sector decelerated in recent years as is evident from various indicators. First, the average annual growth of SSI advances decelerated to 9.5 per cent during 20012006 from 13.6 per cent during the 1990s. Second, the share of the SSI sector in total priority sector advances declined steadily from 44 per cent at endMarch 1998 to 18 per cent at end-March 2006. Third, the share of credit to the SSI sector in NBC declined from 15.7 per cent at end-March 1990 to 8.6 per cent at end-March 2004. SSI advances by public sector banks were 8.1 per cent of net bank credit at endMarch 2006 as compared with 9.5 per cent at endMarch 2005. In the case of private sector banks, SSI advances accounted for 4.2 per cent of NBC at endMarch 2006 as compared with 5.4 per cent at endMarch 2005. Fourth, although credit growth to the SSI sector accelerated in 2004-05 and 2005-06, the share of SSI credit in total non-food gross bank credit and in total credit to the industrial sector continued to decline (Chart IV.6). Fifth, the number of loan accounts of the SSI sector in commercial banks declined from 219 million in 1992 to 93 million in 2005.
Chart IV.6: Trends in Credit to the SSI Sector

4.64 The main reason for slowdown of credit to the SSI sector was its poor performance and consequent risk aversion by banks (Table 4.13). The activity of the SSI sector slowed down significantly between 1997-98 and 2002-03 with the value of production growing at an average annual rate of 7.7 per cent as compared with 11.1 per cent in the 1980s. 4.65 The poor performance of the SSI sector was also reflected in the significantly higher level of NPAs in this sector (Table 4.14). Banks, therefore, became somewhat r isk-averse and they reduced their exposure to the SSI sector. 4.66 In recent years (i.e., from 2003-04 to 2005-06), the performance of the SSI sector has improved. Accordingly, NPAs in the SSI sector have also declined significantly. This was reflected in the improved flow of credit to the SSI sector in 2004-05 and 2005-06 (see Table 4.6). As a result, the credit intensity of the SSI sector, after declining almost consistently between 1997-98 and 2004-05, increased somewhat in 2005-06 (Chart IV.7). 4.67 The credit to the SSI sector, to an extent, does not give a true picture as different banks appeared to have followed different definitions of the SSI sector. The Table 4.13: Performance of the SSI Sector Major Parameters
Item 1 1. No. of Units (000) 2. Value of Production at 1993-94 Prices (Rs. crore) 3. Employment (000) 4. Exports (Rs. crore) 1990-91 2 6,790 84,728 15,830 9,664 29.7 2000-01 3 10,110 2005-06 4 12,340

1,84,401 2,75,581 23,870 69,797 34.3 29,490 97,644 * 33.3 *

Growth Rate (per cent)

Share (per cent)

5. Share of SSI exports in Total Exports (Per cent) Memo:

Average Annual Growth Rate (Per cent) 1980-81 to 1989-90 1990-91 to 1999-00 1.8 7.0 22.3 2000-01 to 2005-06 8.4 4.3 16.3

1. Value of Production at 1993-94 Prices 2. Employment 3. Exports

Share of SSI in Total Credit to Industry Share of SSI in Total Non-Food Credit Non-Food Credit Growth (Right Scale)

11.1 6.0 20.9

* : Relates to 2003-04. Source: Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy, 2005-06, Reserve Bank of India.

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REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 4.14: Gross NPAs of Scheduled Commercial Banks in the SSI Sector
End-March 1 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 SSI Sector* 2 20.3 20.7 19.0 14.9 11.6 8.4 All Sectors** 3 11.4 10.4 8.8 7.2 5.2 3.3
Credit Outstanding as Per cent of Value of Output

Chart IV.7: Credit Intensity of the SSI Sector

* : Gross NPAs as percentage of gross advances to the SSI sector. ** : Gross NPAs as per cent of gross advances to all sectors. Note : Data are provisional. Source : Off-site Returns, Reserve Bank of India.

definition of small and medium enterprises has now been clearly laid down in the Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises Act, 2006. Therefore, it is expected that there would be an improvement in the data reporting and the proper assessment of credit to the SME sector. Given the significance of the small and medium enterprises, several measures have also been taken by the Reserve Bank to enhance the flow of credit to the SME sector (Box IV.7). These measures, together with decline in NPAs in recent years, are expected to have a significant impact on the flow of credit to the SMEs sector in the coming years.

Services 4.68 While credit extended by commercial banks to all the sub-sectors in the ser vices sector accelerated in the current decade (up to 2005-06) as compared with the 1990s, the acceleration was more pronounced in the case of personal loans and professional services. The share of the services sector

Box IV.7 Credit Flow to Small Scale and Medium Industries Recent Measures
The SSI sector depends primarily on finance from banks and other financial institutions. Several measures have been initiated in recent years with a view to increasing the flow of credit to SSI units. These include refining the definition of small scale and tiny enterprises; broadening the scope for indirect finance to these industries; making investments in several avenues such as securitised assets, lines of credit, bills-discounting, leasing and hire purchase eligible for priority sector advances; and modification of targets for priority sector lending to SSIs. Besides, in pursuance of the recommendations made by several working groups and high powered committees appointed by the Central Government and the Reserve Bank, a set of comprehensive guidelines to be followed for advances to all categories of borrowers in the SSI sector has been evolved. Based on the recommendations of the Working Group on Flow of Credit to the SSI Sector (Chairman: Dr. A.S. Ganguly), the Reserve Bank (2004) advised banks, inter alia, (i) to identify new clusters and adopt cluster-based approach for financing the small and medium enterprises (SME) sector; (ii) widely publicise the successful working models of NGOs; (iii) sanction higher working capital limits to SSIs in the North-Eastern region for maintaining higher levels of inventory; and (iv) explore new instruments for promoting rural industry. The Reserve Bank advised all public sector banks on August 19, 2005 to align their flow of credit to small and medium enterprises in line with the package announced by the Honble Finance Minister. These measures, inter alia, include : (i) units with investment in plant and machinery in excess of SSI limit and up to Rs.10 crore may be treated as medium enterprises (ME) (only SSI financing will be included in the priority sector); (ii) banks may fix self-targets for financing the SME sector so as to reflect a higher disbursement over the immediately preceding year, while the sub-targets for financing tiny units and smaller units to the extent of 40 per cent and 20 per cent, respectively, may continue; and (iii) banks may initiate necessary steps to rationalise the cost of loans to the SME sector by adopting a transparent rating system with cost of credit being linked to the credit rating of an enterprise.

140

CREDIT MARKET

in total bank credit increased sharply from 30.9 per cent in 1990-91 to 48.7 per cent in 2005-06, essentially reflecting its growing share in total GDP; the services sector contributed 60.7 per cent of GDP in 2005-06 as against 46.7 per cent in 1990-91. Credit intensity of the services sector increased from 14.9 per cent in 1990 to 15.2 per cent in 2001 and further to 36.5 per cent in 2006 (see Chart IV.4). Faster credit growth to the services sector was mainly on account of a sharp rise in credit demand from the household sector, a trend which star ted in the 1990s and gathered further momentum in the current decade. Emergence of Household Credit 4.69 Until the early 1990s, there were several restrictions for granting of personal loans. For instance, in the case of housing loans, the restrictions were in the form of (i) limits on total amount of housing loan to be given by all the banks in a given year; (ii) limits on maximum loan amount to individuals; (iii) prescription of rate of interest according to loan size; (iv) prescription of margin requirement; and (v) prescription of maximum period of repayment. All these conditions/restrictions were gradually removed in the early 1990s and banks were given freedom to decide the quantum, rate of interest, margin requirement, repayment period and other related conditions. These relaxations had a positive impact on the growth of personal loans. 4.70 Household or personal loans, on an average, registered a rise of 38.2 per cent during the fiveyear period ended March 2005 as compared with 25.2 per cent in the 1990s; overall bank credit during this period increased by 20.3 per cent. Consequently, the share of personal loans in total bank credit increased from 9.4 per cent at end-March 1990 to 14.4 per cent in 2000 and further to 22.2 per cent at end-March 2005 (Table 4.15). Latest available data reveal that the share of personal loans increased further to 25.2 per cent of non-food gross bank credit at end-March 2006. 4.71 The number of personal loan accounts also increased sharply from 1995 (Chart IV.8). 4.72 Within personal loans, housing loans accounted for a little over one half of total loans, distantly followed by advances made against fixed deposits with a share of around 10.0 per cent (Table 4.16). 4.73 Housing loans grew at an average annual rate of 47.7 per cent during the five year period from 2000-01 to 2004-05. The average housing loan amount increased almost four times between end-March 2000 141

Table 4.15: Growth and Share of Personal Loans in Total Bank Credit
(Per cent) End- March Annual Growth of Total Bank Credit Annual Growth of Personal Loans Share of Personal Loans in Total Bank Credit 4 12.2 12.6 15.1 20.3 22.2 16.5

1 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Average (2001 to 2005)

2 17.0 21.8 15.2 16.4 30.9 20.3

3 27.7 25.1 38.1 57.2 42.9 38.2

Source: Basic Statistical Returns of Scheduled Commercial Banks in India, various issues, Reserve Bank of India.

and end-March 2005. At end-March 2005, the average housing loan outstanding per account at Rs.3.45 lakh, which was more than two times the average amount in respect of all types of accounts of commercial banks (Table 4.17). 4.74 The share of housing loans increased steadily from 2.7 per cent of total loans of commercial banks at end-March 1991 to 11.0 per cent at end-March 2005 (Chart IV.9).

Chart IV.8: Share of Personal Loans Accounts/Amount in Total Accounts/Amounts of Scheduled Commercial Banks

Per cent

Accounts

Amount

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 4.16: Composition of Household Credit Provided by Commercial Banks

(Per cent) Category Share in Total Personal Loans end-March end-March 2005 2006 1 i) Housing Loans ii) Advances Against Fixed Deposits iii) Credit Cards Outstanding iv) Education v) Loans for Purchase of Consumer Durables vi) Others Total (i to vi) 2 52.5 12.2 2.4 2.1 3.7 27.2 100.0 3 52.7 9.9 2.6 2.8 2.5 29.5 100.0 4 44.8 16.9 59.3 96.5 -3.3 57.0 44.4 Annual Growth during 2005-06

Chart IV.9: Trends in Housing Loans

Rupees crore

Amount

Share in Total Bank Credit (right scale)

Source: Annual Report, 2005-06, Reserve Bank of India.

by private banks and foreign banks reached almost at the same level (Chart IV.10). 4.76 The sharp increase in bank credit to the household sector has been contributed by several factors. First, the demand for credit by the industrial sector slowed down, especially between 1996-97 and 2001-02, due to their focus on restructuring and consolidation, as alluded to earlier. This encouraged banks to focus on retail loans. High level of NPAs, in particular, might have encouraged banks to focus increasingly on retail portfolio. From the banks
Chart IV.10: Share of Personal Loans in Total Credit*

4.75 The share of personal loans in total credit extended by respective bank group at end-March 2000 was highest in respect of foreign banks and lowest in respect of private banks. In recent years, however, private sector banks became very aggressive in the retail loan segment. As a result, by end-March 2005, the share of personal loans in total credit extended Table 4.17: Trends in Housing Loans Provided by Commercial Banks
(Per cent) Year Annual Growth of Housing Loans Share of Average Housing amount per Loans in Housing Total Loan Personal Account Loans (Rs.)* 3 38.5 39.8 43.1 47.7 49.5 43.7 4 1,02,354 1,80,728 2,00,594 2,81,205 3,45,830 2,22,142 Average amount of all Loan Accounts (Rs.)* 5 1,02,825 1,16,336 1,27,073 1,32,597 1,49,378 1,25,642

1 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003 2003-2004 2004-2005 Average (2000-01 to 2005-06)

2 37.2 29.2 49.5 73.9 48.6 47.7

Per cent

*: As at end of March. Source : Basic Statistical Returns of Scheduled Commercial Banks in India, various issues, Reserve Bank of India.

SBI and Nationalised Associates Banks

Private Banks

Foreign Banks

All SCBs

*: Share in total credit of the respective bank group.

142

Per cent

CREDIT MARKET

viewpoint, the retail and mortgage loans, being small, do not involve much exposure to a single borrower. As a result, the average risk associated with retail loans is lower as they are spread across diversified customers provided banks do not dilute the credit appraisal standards in an enthusiasm to increase lending to this sector. Also, in the case of mortgage loans, there is adequate collateral str ucture, particularly for housing and auto loans. It is easier to determine the realistic sale value of housing, unlike commercial property in the case of corporate loans. Second, with high economic growth, job opportunities have expanded and income levels have risen. Tax rates have also moderated over the years. As a result, disposable incomes have risen sharply in recent years. This has increased the capacity of the borrowers to repay the loans. Third, with the decline in inflation and stable inflationary expectations, the inflation risk premium fell resulting in decline in both nominal and real interest rates. This encouraged the households to avail credit for various purposes such as purchase of houses, automobiles and consumer durable items. Fourth, increase in real estate prices as also the stock market might have also boosted the household demand for bank credit due to wealth effect, although exposure of Indian households to the equity market, at present, is limited. 4.77 The rapid growth in the housing market, in particular, has been supported, inter alia, by the emergence of a number of second tier cities as upcoming business centres and increase in IT and IT-related activities, which have had a positive impact on households demand for housing. Further, tax incentives offered to salary earners made housing loans more attractive by bringing down the effective rate of interest. Also, comfortable liquidity position with banks, which created easy credit conditions, encouraged them to look to new clients and emerged as another significant factor that drove the growth of the housing market in India in recent years. 4.78 The phenomenon of rapid credit expansion to the household sector, however, is not confined to India alone as household borrowing has grown sharply in many other countries, especially emerging market economies, since the 1980s, both in absolute terms and relative to household incomes (Box IV.8). 4.79 In view of rapid credit expansion, the Reserve Bank in April 2006 indicated that growth of non-food bank credit, including investments in bonds/ debentures/shares of public sector undertakings and private corporate sector and commercial paper, will be calibrated to decelerate to around 20 per cent 143

during 2006-07 from a growth of above 30 per cent. Besides, the Reserve Bank initiated several prudential policy measures (Box IV.9). 4.80 As a result of the increased share of medium and long-term credit to industry and to the household sector for housing loans, the share of medium and long-term loans in total credit increased sharply in recent years (Chart IV.11). Financing of Credit Growth 4.81 Banks in India have traditionally relied on deposits for funding their credit expansion. With rapid growth in credit in the recent period, incremental credit-deposit ratio exceeded 100 per cent in 2004-05, before sliding marginally below 100 per cent in 2005-06 (Chart IV.12). 4.82 In order to sustain large credit expansion since 2004-05, banks resorted to large non-deposit resources in the form of (i) capital and reserves; (ii) overseas foreign currency borrowings; and (iii) call/ term funding from financial institutions. During 2005-06, banks liquidated large excess investments to the tune of Rs.1,09,834 crore in SLR securities. Non-deposit sources and liquidation of securities together financed 34.7 per cent of incremental credit in 2004-05 and 45.7 per cent in 2005-06 (Table 4.18). 4.83 As a result of liquidation of securities for funding credit expansion in the recent years, the share of credit in total assets of scheduled commercial banks increased sharply, while that of investment declined (Chart IV.13). 4.84 A distinct feature of banks operations in the last 10 years has been flexible adjustment of the investment portfolio in line with the changing credit demand. As credit demand slowed down in the second half of the 1990s, banks remained invested in SLR securities, even when SLR was brought down significantly. However, as credit demand picked up, banks liquidated SLR investments (2004-05 and 200506). Liquidation of holdings on the one hand, and the expansion of net demand and time liabilities on the other, have brought down the holding of SLR securities very close to the statutory limit of 25 per cent (Chart IV.14). Factors behind Rapid Credit Expansion 4.85 Apart from the specific factors alluded to earlier, several other factors, such as increased financial deepening, increased competition, improvement in asset quality of banks and rapid product innovations, have also contributed to the rapid credit expansion in recent years.

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Box IV.8 Household Credit Market International Experience

In the recent period, a significant development in credit markets all over the world has been the rapid growth of credit availed of by the households, often outstripping that of corporate credit. While banks have been expanding their retail business through increased mortgage and credit card lending, households have been eager to finance their consumption and residential investment through bank credit (Mohanty, et al, 2006). While the household credit market has already developed in the mature market economies (MME), it is only recently that the household credit market has started developing in emerging market economies (EME). Lower inflation and interest rates, higher income levels, higher asset prices (particularly housing), financial liberalisation, reduced corporate demand for credit and increased presence of retail lending-oriented foreign banks, were the main factors that contributed to the growth of the household credit market in various countries (IMF, 2006). The demand for bank credit and also household credit is highly pro-cyclical. Boost to households current incomes, at the back of strong economic growth, coupled with expectations about future income has boosted the demand for household credit. With the decline in inflation and its stability over the medium term, inflation expectations as well as the inflation risk premium have fallen, thus, bringing down both nominal and real interest rates. This has attracted potential home owners to the mortgage market. Rapid increase in real estate prices, which increases expectations about future returns, has also been a key factor in boosting the demand for household credit. In developed countries, the increase in the value of residential property in recent years was even higher than the increase in the value of global shares. The removal of restrictions on bank lending to housing and consumer sectors has also facilitated higher credit flow as latent demand was eventually materialised. On the supply side, the changes in banks capacity and willingness to lend facilitated expansion in household credit. Improvement in creditors rights and improvement in information sharing among lenders eased the supply-led credit constraints (Mohanty, et al 2006). A comparison of the nature of the household credit market in various regions in the world reveals some interesting trends. Despite sharp credit growth in recent years, the penetration rates for consumer credit, housing loans and use of credit cards, in emerging market economies, in general, are much lower than in mature market economies. Among the emerging economies, household credit as a percentage of GDP was highest in Asia, followed by emerging Europe and Latin America (Table A).
Table A: Cross-country Trends in Household Credit 2005
(Per cent) Item Emerg- EmergLatin Mature All India* ing ing America Markets CountEurope Asia ries 2 3 27.5 31.4 54.2 4 9.2 35.7 37.5 5 58.0 41.5 77.5 6 29.2 37.5 52.9 7 9.9 24.5 52.7

In emerging Europe, a significant share of household credit is denominated in foreign currency. However, in Asia it is almost entirely denominated in local currency. Banks, particularly foreign banks, are the largest providers of household credit, including housing loans in the emerging markets followed by Government sponsored lending institutions, non-bank financial companies and, to a lesser extent, the informal sector. There is a view that household borrowings can continue to grow at a fast rate in many emerging economies as they have a higher debt absorption capacity (Mohanty, et al, 2006). The level of indebtedness of households, as revealed by the ratio of household credit to personal disposable income, is substantially lower in emerging market countries than mature market economies (Table B). International experience reveals that while sound development of the household credit market as such is beneficial for borrowers, lenders, the financial system and the economy as a whole, the pace of household credit expansion should be consistent with the underlying macroeconomic, prudential and institutional framework to avoid the likely adverse impact of bust of credit boom. Policy support required for the healthy development of this segment of the credit market should, inter alia, include: (i) prudential regulation like appropriate risk weighting, capital adequacy, classification and provisioning of loans; (ii) legal environment for enabling securitisation, effective enforcement of collateral, provision and sharing of credit information, promotion of rating agencies and credit bureaus and transparency in lending, consumer protection and consumer education; (iii) improvement in the availability of data to monitor and assess the build-up of credit, household debt and net worth and asset prices; (iv) maintenance of adequate reserves by the country as well as the lending institution, if households carry large interest and exchange rate exposures; and (v) formulation of adequate contingency plans in the event of large interest and exchange rate movements.
Table B: Ratio of Household Credit to Personal Disposable Income
(Per cent) Item 1 Emerging Markets Hungary Poland Korea Philippines Thailand Mature Markets Australia France Germany Japan Spain United States 2000 2 11.2 10.1 33.0 1.7 26.0 83.3 57.8 70.4 73.6 65.2 104.0 2001 3 14.4 10.3 43.9 4.6 25.6 86.7 57.5 70.1 75.7 70.4 105.1 2002 4 20.9 10.9 57.3 5.5 28.6 95.6 58.2 69.1 77.6 76.9 110.8 2003 5 29.5 12.6 62.6 5.5 34.3 109.0 59.8 70.3 77.3 86.4 118.2 2004 6 33.9 14.5 64.5 5.6 36.4 119.0 64.2 70.5 77.9 98.8 126.0 2005 7 39.3 18.2 68.9 .. .. 124.6 69.2 70.0 77.8 112.7 132.7

i) Household credit as percentage to GDP 12.1 ii) Share of household credit in total private sector credit 38.9 iii) Share of housing loans in total household credit 27.9

Source: IMF (2006).

References: IMF. 2006. Global Financial Stability Report, September. Mohanty, M.S., Gert Schnabel, and Pablo Gracia-Luna. 2006. Banks and Aggregate Credit: What is New? BIS Papers No.28, BIS, August.

* : Data pertain to 2005-06. Source : International Monetary Fund (2006) and Reserve Bank of India.

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Box IV.9 Rapid Increase in Credit Prudential Measures

The general provisioning requirement on standard advances in specific sectors, i.e., personal loans, loans and advances qualifying as capital market exposures, residential housing loans beyond Rs.20 lakh and commercial real estate loans were increased from 0.40 per cent to one per cent in April 2006 and further to two per cent on January 31, 2007. Further, the risk weight on exposures on commercial real estate was increased from 125 per cent to 150 per cent. Banks total exposure to venture capital funds was included as a part of their capital market exposure and they were required to assign a risk weight of 150 per cent to such exposures. The Reser ve Bank used pr udential measures in combination with increase in the policy rates. Keeping in view the persistent growth of credit to the retail sector and also keeping in view the general inflationary conditions, the repo rate was increased by 175 basis points in stages to 7.75 per cent by April 14, 2007 from its lowest level of 6.0 per cent in September 2004. Further, the CRR was raised by 200 basis points in stages from 4.5 per cent in September 2004 to 6.5 per cent. The Reserve Bank increased the provisioning requirement for banks exposure in the standard asset category to systemically important NBFCs to two per cent from the earlier level of 0.4 per cent. Further, risk weight for banks exposure to such NBFCs was increased to 125 per cent from the existing level of 100 per cent. Banks were prohibited from granting fresh loans in excess of Rs.20 lakh against the NR(E)RA and FCNR(B) deposits, either to depositors or to third parties.

4.86 The rapid credit expansion, to an extent, reflects increased financial deepening as a result of deregulation. The credit-GDP ratio in India has been low in comparison with other advanced and emerging market economies and is now moving up with the increase in credit penetration (Chart IV.15). 4.87 With the entry of new private sector banks in the credit market, competition among banks has intensified, which is reflected in the increase in the share of new private sector banks (about 15 per cent in both total bank credit and assets at end-March 2006). Increased competition has led to narrowing of

margins. In order to make up for squeeze in margins, banks have tended to increase credit volumes by aggressively marketing their products to upcoming services and the household sector. 4.88 One of the major reasons for slowdown in credit in the second half of the 1990s was large NPAs, which impaired banks ability to extend credit. However, as a result of various reform measures, there has been significant improvement in the asset quality over the years, partly as a result of expansion of loan volumes and partly on account of write-offs and recovery of past dues (Chart IV.16).

Chart IV.11: Share of Medium and Long-term Loans in Total Credit

Chart IV.12: Incremental Credit-Deposit Ratio

Per cent

End-March

145

Per cent

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Table 4.18: Non-Deposit Sources of Funds

(Amount in Rs. crore) Non-Deposit Sources of Funds Year Overseas Foreign Currency Borrowings Accretion to Capital and Reserves Call/Term Funding from Financial Institutions Total Nondeposit sources of Funds NonDeposit Resources as a proportion to incremental Bank Credit (per cent) 6 8.4 11.7 22.3 34.5 31.8 15.2 6.7 Funds from Unwinding of Investments Offloading of Excess SLR Investments Offloading of nonSLR Investments Total Offloading of SLR and nonSLR Investments 9 (7+8) -35,565 -38,712 -66,595 -68,999 7,517 1,24,034 55,567 Liquidation of Investments as a proportion to incremental Bank Credit (per cent) 10 -47.1 -49.4 -47.7 -61.8 2.9 30.5 13.4

1 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

2 -369 -88 5,963 9,784 8,529 4,168 2,543

3 6,878 8,807 15,511 16,723 29,134 44,039 22,431

4 -168 463 9,609 12,032 44,853 13,621 3,007

5 (2 to 4) 6,341 9,182 31,083 38,539 82,516 61,828 27,981

7 -21,129 -33,557 -54,740 -72,868 12,196 1,09,834 59,569

8 -14,436 -5,155 -11,855 3,869 -4,679 14,200 -4,002

Note : (-) in columns 7-10 denotes net purchase of securities. Source: Reserve Bank of India.

4.89 Incremental NPAs during last five years remained in the range of Rs.20,000-26,000 crore. As credit has expanded rapidly, incremental NPAs as percentage of incremental bank credit, which were as high as 31.7 per cent in 2001-02, declined to 5.3 per cent in 2005-06 (Chart IV.17). A sharp decline in incremental NPAs also reflects significant improvement in credit appraisal, improved risk management and better resource allocation process. This has encouraged banks to enlarge their lending operations. 4.90 One of the major reasons for rapid credit expansion, especially to the agriculture and the household sectors has been innovative tailor-made products introduced by banks in recent years. Until the early 1990s, banks operations were subject to general restrictions and they were offering plain vanilla

type of credit products such as short-term, mediumterm and long-term loans to their customers. However, with increased freedom to decide interest rates and relaxations in deployment of funds, banks started introducing innovative products to suit the needs of the borrowers as well as to enable them to mitigate the risks faced by the corporates. The range of loan products offered by banks has widened considerably in recent years, especially in the case of personal loan segment. 4.91 Apart from introducing new loan products, banks have also added frills and features to the existing loan products to serve the needs of all segments of the economy, both in rural and in urban areas. Loan products have not only been customised to suit to the specific requirements of borrowers, but also their repayment capacity and convenience.

Chart IV.13: Credit and Investment

Trends in Major Assets Items of Scheduled Commercial Banks
Per cent of Total Assets Growth Rate (per cent)

Credit Growth and Investment in Government Securities

Investment

Credit

Investment in Government and Other Approved Securities

Bank Credit

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Chart IV.14: SLR Investments by Scheduled Commercial Banks

Chart IV.16: Non-Performing Assets of Scheduled Commercial Banks

Actual SLR Maintained by SCBs Statutory SLR Requirement Gross NPAs Net NPAs

4.92 Banks are now also offer ing credit to agriculture with greater vigour for activities such as leased land cultivation, agri-clinics, land development and reclamation, irr igation projects, forestr y, constr uction of cold storages and godowns, processing of agri-products, agri-input dealers, allied activities such as dairy, fisheries, poultry, sheep-goat, pigger y, rearing of silk wor ms, among others. Likewise, in the industrial sector, besides extending working capital finance and overdraft facilities, banks are now increasingly also providing project finance in
Chart IV.15: Credit-GDP Ratio

the form of term loans. For the small and medium enterprise sector, banks offer loan products such as open term loans, flexi loans and general purpose term loans. Banks have also been increasing their exposure to the infrastructure sectors such as road and urban infrastructure, power and utilities, oil and gas, other natural resources, ports and airports, telecommunications, among others. 4.93 Product innovations have been the most significant in the personal loan segment. Housing loans are offered with several frills such as free
Chart IV.17: Incremental Accretion to NPAs

Rs. crore

As Per cent of Advances

Per cent of NDTL

Per cent

Incremental Accretion to NPA Ratio of Incremental NPA to Credit Ratio (right scale)

147

Per cent

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personal accident insurance, eligibility for other personal loans, 100 per cent funding (in the case of select projects), fixed or floating interest rates or part fixed and part floating. Housing loans are now given for home improvement, home extension, land purchase, among others. Clean personal loans (some banks call it as express loans) are offered for any personal purposes such as renovation of house, marriage, holiday, childrens education, purchase of computers and for meeting medical expenses. Besides, loans are also given against gold collaterals. Special loans are offered to professionals such as doctors, engineers, teachers and nurses. Some banks have come out with specific loan products for education. Credit cards and education loans have emerged as other important categories of personal loan segment. The Recent Phase of Rapid Credit Growth Is there a Structural Break? 4.94 Non-food credit of scheduled commercial banks, after remaining subdued for several years, started accelerating from 2002-03 onwards. The average annual growth of non-food credit during the five-year period from 2002-03 to 2006-07 was 24.9 per cent as against the average growth of 15.4 per cent during the 1990s. Credit growth, in real terms, also witnessed a sharp expansion (Table 4.19). 4.95 The expansion in non-food credit during the recent years was significantly higher than the growth of the real economy. This was reflected in the sharp increase in total bank credit to GDP ratio, which increased from 25.9 per cent in 2001-02 to 42.2 per cent by 2005-06 (see Chart IV.15). 4.96 Analysis of data suggests that nature of credit growth from May 2002 has been structurally at variance from the historical trends 3 . There are alternative views focusing on demand or supply side factors to explain this phenomenon in emerging economies. To ascertain these aspects in the Indian context, empirical analysis was carried out for the pre and post-break period. It suggests that while lendable deposits, output gap and interest rate influenced credit
3

Table 4.19: Trends in Credit Growth

(Per cent) Period/Year 1 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2000-01 Memo: 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 Note 14.9 13.6 18.6 18.4 27.5 31.8 28.0 to to to to 1979-80 1989-90 1999-00 2006-07 Non-Food Credit (Nominal) 2 Average Annual Growth 17.4 17.8 15.4 21.8 Annual Growth 7.7 10.0 15.2 12.9 21.0 27.4 22.6 8.5 9.8 7.3 16.7 Non-Food Credit (Real) 3

: Data are adjusted for mergers and conversion during 2002-03 and 2004-05, respectively, while for the presence of 27 fortnights during 2005-06. Real non-food credit has been obtained by deflating nominal non-food credit by annual average growth of wholesale price index (WPI). Source : Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy 2005-06, Reserve Bank of India.

expansion in the pre-break period, lendable deposits and output gap together with asset prices emerged as the key determinants of rapid credit growth in the post-break period (Box IV.10). 4.97 As seen above, in addition to structural factors, credit expansion was also pro-cyclical in nature, which indicates that strong income growth recorded in recent years has also significantly contributed to credit growth. This characteristic of credit could also be inferred from comparison of the cyclical component in credit vis--vis that of GDP (Chart IV.18). 4.98 The cyclical nature of credit is a phenomenon which is common to several other emerging economies as bank credit to the private sector and output are closely related (Mohanty et al, 2006). Apart from the factors indicated above, acceleration in credit could also be reflective of crowding in of private spending by the recent moderation in fiscal deficit of both the Central and State governments.

Quandt-Andrews Break point test for endogenous structural break, applied to growth trend in non-food credit (NFC), suggests endogenous structural break at the beginning of 2003-04. For the estimation, monthly observations, in log form from April 1996 to March 2007 were used. The estimates are given below: LNFC = 11.25 + 0.02 T + AR (1) (7.3) (2.7)

2 R = 0.98, DW = 2.17

Maximum Wald F-statistic = 32.00 was obtained in May 2002 (0.00) Note: Figures in parentheses represent t statistics.

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Box IV.10 Determinants of Bank Credit

Until the early 1990s, deposit rates, lending rates and allocation of resources to different sectors were largely regulated. The scenar io changed thereafter with the implementation of prudential norms and freeing of interest rates and removal of other restrictions on banking operations. These developments enhanced the sensitivity of bank operations to asset quality and oriented them to operate on the basis of their commercial judgment. In this backdrop and the cross country experience about the determinants of credit expansion, an empirical exercise estimating relationship between non-food credit (NFC), lendable deposits (LD), level of NPAs, output gap (OG), commercial paper yield (CPRATE) and asset pr ices (represented by BSE SENSEX), index of house rentals (HPI) was conducted for the period from April 1996 to March 2006. As there was a structural break in the relationship in April 2003, the separate estimations were also done for the period prior and subsequent to the break. Output gap has been estimated by de-trending the output series using HP-filter. HPI is drawn from consumer price index for industrial workers. Lendable deposits are aggregate deposits net of reserve requirement. CP yield in place of BPLR has been used as interest rate variable as predominant proportion of total bank credit is extended below BPLR. It could reasonably be assumed that effective lending rate would have proximity to the CP rate, which is market determined. Equations have been estimated in difference form. Estimated equation and plot of actual and estimated values (Chart A) are set out below: Period - April 1996 to March 2006 DNFC = 20779.0 + 674.7 OG - 1150.0 NPAR - 0.18 DSLR (-3) (3.3) (3.2) (1.65) - 341.4 CPRATE + 6.4 DBSE + 173.5 DHPI (-3) + 0.5 DLD (0.6) (2.2) (2.5) (10.0) 2 D.W. = 1.63 R = 0.74, Note: Figures in parentheses represent t statistics. The results indicate that availability of lendable resources, followed by level of NPA and asset prices are the major determinants of credit expansion. Moreover, credit is positively related to the output gap, indicating the pro-cyclical nature of credit growth. In order to have a better insight into the dynamics of the relationship over the period, separate estimations were attempted for the period prior and subsequent to the structural break. Estimated equations and the plots of actual and estimated values (Chart B and C) are set out below:
Chart A: Determinants of Credit April 1996 to March 2006
Rupees crore Rupees crore

Period - April 1996 to April 2002 DNFC = 17521.1 + 517.1 OG - 556.1 NPAR - 0.13 DSLR (-2) (3.2) (1.5) (1.23) - 779.3 CPRATE + 1.73 DBSE + 90.0 DHPI (-3) + 0.43 DLD (2.1) (0.8) (1.6) (6.1) 2 D.W. = 1.96 R = 0.52, Regression estimates for the period April 1996 to March 2003 indicate that availability of lendable resources, interest rate and level of NPAs are impor tant determinants of credit expansion. Apart from these, credit also responds positively to surplus output gap. Importantly, asset prices did not play any significant role till March 2003 in credit expansion. Period - May 2002 to March 2006 DNFC = 42522.5 + 1153.9 OG - 2793.4 NPAR(-1) (2.1) (2.5) - 0.01 DSLR (-2) - 2638.6 CPRATE(-3) (0.1) (0.7) + 18.5 DBSE + 319.5 DHPI (-3) + 0.49 DLD (2.4) (2.0) (5.6) 2 R = 0.74, D.W. = 1.96 Lag structure of the explanatory variables was determined through general to specific procedure beginning with 6 lags for all the variables. Insignificant lags were omitted in stages. Empirical results for the subsequent period, i.e., May 2002 to March 2006 show that besides lendable resources and level of NPAs, asset prices emerged as the major determinant of credit expansion. During this period, output gap continued to be significant but lost its explanatory power. Interest rate was not significant determinant of credit growth, suggesting that asset prices and consequent wealth effect overshadowed the cost as the determinants of credit demand. Gain in the significance of NPA level during the period allays the apprehensions that with booming asset prices and consequent rise in net worth of individuals might have impaired the sensitivity of banks towards asset quality. Though the SLR holding of the banks had the expected sign in both the periods, it was not statistically significant, implying that banks hold government securities on their on volition and it is not a constraint for credit expansion. Determinants as observed above are also indicative of the credit channels of monetary policy. Significance of the NPA level suggests the growing sensitivity of banks to asset quality and this probably indicates the significance of the balance sheet route of credit channel. Similarly, significance of lendable deposits suggests that the monetary authority could affect lending capacity of the banks. This, in turn, suggests that the bank lending route of credit channel is also possibly operative in the Indian economy.
Chart C: Determinants of Credit May 2002 to March 2006
Rupees crore

Chart B: Determinants of Credit April 1996 to April 2002

Actual

Fitted

Aug-96 Nov-96 Feb-97 May-97 Aug-97 Nov-97 Feb-98 May-98 Aug-98 Nov-98 Feb-99 May-99 Aug-99 Nov-99 Feb-00 May-00 Aug-00 Nov-00 Feb-01 May-01 Aug-01 Nov-01 Feb-02

Actual

Fitted

149

May-02 Jul-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 Jan-03 Mar-03 May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06

Aug-96 Feb-97 Aug-97 Feb-98 Aug-98 Feb-99 Aug-99 Feb-00 Aug-00 Feb-01 Aug-01 Feb-02 Aug-02 Feb-03 Aug-03 Feb-04 Aug-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06

Actual

Fitted

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Chart IV.18: Cyclical Component as Percentage of Actual*

The Indian scenario 4.101 Although credit in India has expanded rapidly, a detailed sector-wise analysis shows that its spread is quite broad-based across all the sectors. In fact, credit to agriculture has picked-up, which is a healthy development and the result of conscious policy efforts. Credit to small scale industry has also picked up during last two years, which is again a welcome sign. Credit to industry, on the whole, has decelerated somewhat. 4.102 However, credit to the household sector has grown rather rapidly. In this context, it needs to be noted that credit to the private sector, on the whole, in India is low in comparison with many other countries (Table 4.20). Besides, credit penetration in India is also low in comparison with several emerging market economies. In terms of number of loan accounts per 100 persons, India was placed lower than several other emerging market economies (Table 4.21). The number of credit accounts of scheduled commercial banks in 2005 as per cent of adult population was only 9.5 per cent in rural areas and 14.2 per cent in urban areas. Further, only around one-third of the rural households and onehalf of the urban households had credit accounts with commercial banks in 2005. While the overall credit penetration was higher in urban areas, small loan accounts (with credit limit of less than Rs.25,000) are concentrated largely in rural areas (61.6 per cent in 2005) (Table 4.22). 4.103 Credit penetration in India has not only been low, it is also unevenly spread across different regions (Table 4.23). Thus, large credit expansion, to an extent, reflects increasing financial deepening. 4.104 Furthermore, according to the latest National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) survey, the household indebtedness in 2002 was only 26.5 per cent in rural areas and still lower at 17.8 per cent in urban areas (Table 4.24). 4.105 Moreover, the extent of financial leverage of the households, as revealed by the debt-asset ratio, in India was very low at 2.84 per cent in rural areas and 2.82 per cent in urban areas in 2002 (Table 4.25). Though this ratio might have gone up in the subsequent years, as personal loans have increased significantly, it is still expected to be much lower than many other emerging countries, especially when income levels in India have also risen sharply in recent years. 150

Per cent

Real NFC

Real GDP

*: After estimating the trend of the variable by Hodrick Prescot filter, cyclical component was derived (actual minus the trend), which was then taken as per cent of actual variable.

Rapid Credit Growth Implications 4.99 Rapid credit expansion could be indicative of financial deepening as well as cyclical upturn caused by business cycle representing improvement in investment opportunity. However, excessive cyclical fluctuations caused by over-optimism about future ear nings could be potentially destabilising. International experience indicates that an excessive credit expansion may be unsustainable. Overoptimism about future earnings could boost asset valuations, which artificially enhance the net worth of firms and their capacity to borrow and spend. Since perfor mance cannot match the over-optimistic expectation, the process becomes unsustainable beyond a point. Lending booms can lead to vulnerability of the banking system (Box IV.11). Monetary Policy Response to Rapid Credit Expansion International Experiences 4.100 While there is no consensus with regard to what the policy response should be to the rapid credit expansion, the dominant view seems to indicate that generalised policy tightening could be counter-productive and the appropriate response should be to strengthen the financial system by adopting suitable prudential and supervisory norms (Box IV.12). A menu of policy options are available including prudential and supervisory measures to manage key risks arising out of rapid credit growth (Annex I and II).

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Box IV.11 Credit Boom: Analytical Issues

Analytically, credit can grow rapidly for three reasons, viz., (i) financial deepening (trend); (ii) normal cyclical upturns (credit expansion); and (iii) excessive cyclical movements (credit booms) (IMF, 2004). When an economy develops, credit generally grows faster than GDP - a process known as financial deepening, reflecting the growing importance of financial intermediation. Temporarily, credit can also expand more rapidly than GDP because firms investment and working capital needs fluctuate with the business cycle. Rapid lending may, thus, represent a permanent deepening of the financial system and an improvement of investment opportunities that are beneficial to the economy. Credit growth associated with these two factors is desirable, which can broadly be considered as a case of credit expansion. If the credit expansion is accompanied by an excessive cyclical movement (over-optimism about future earnings), it can be a case of credit boom. In practice, it is difficult to distinguish among three factors, viz., financial deepening, financial accelerator and over-optimism about future earnings, driving credit growth and to determine a neutral level or rate of growth for credit (Hilbers, et al, 2005). Inter national exper ience indicates that an excessive credit expansion (boom) is unsustainable and potentially destabilising. Financial accelerator is one of the important and familiar mechanisms that can lead to a credit boom, where shocks to asset prices get amplified through balance sheet effects (Bernanke and Gilchrist, 1999). During a boom, asset prices increase which, in turn, lead to increases in borrowers net worth. This facilitates new lending, thereby fueling higher asset demand and, in turn, higher asset prices (Gourinchas, et al, 2000). The financial accelerator results from financial mar ket imperfections due to information asymmetry, institutional shortcomings, or perverse incentives facing borrowers and lenders. Overoptimism about future ear nings could boost asset valuations, which artificially enhance the net-worth of firms and, in turn, their capacity to borrow and spend. Since performance cannot match the over-optimistic expectation, the process becomes unsustainable beyond a point. Though lending booms are associated with output gains, they can lead to vulnerability of the banking system. On the basis of cross-country experiences, several methods could be used to ascertain whether there is a credit expansion phase or a credit boom phase or a mere continuation of the trend. IMF (2004) defined the episodes of rapid and sustained credit growth, if the average real credit growth exceeded 17.0 per cent (median rate of real credit growth in credit booms in 28 EMEs during 19702002.) over a three-year period. A credit boom can be defined as a situation where credit/GDP ratio is four percentage points above its trend. Ottens, Lambregts and Poelhekke (2005) defined a lending boom episode as two consecutive periods in which the ratio of nominal private credit to nominal GDP deviates from trend by a certain threshold. This threshold var ies from 2.0 to 10.0 percentage points of GDP (credit gap). Although various methods can be used, it may be possible that an identified phase may actually be not a boom period as credit expansion, above the threshold, could be due to financial deepening and business cycles. It is difficult to identify the booms when they are happening. Only when the boom has fully blown up, it may be possible to distinguish it. Hence, policy makers need to look at other macroeconomic developments such as investment boom, consumption boom, current account deficits and increase in the relative price of non-tradables, etc., to have a clear perspective. References: Bernanke, Ben, and Simon Gilchrist. 1999. The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework. in Handbook of Macroeconomics, (ed.) John Taylor and Michael Woodford Vol.1C, Amsterdam: North-Holland. Gour inchas, Pierre-Oliver, Valdes Rodr igo, and Landerreche, Oscar. 2000. Lending Booms: Some Stylized Facts. MIT, February. Hilbers, Paul, Inci Otker-Robe, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, and Gudrun Johnsen. 2005. Assessing and Managing Rapid Credit Growth and the Role of Supervisory and Prudential policies. IMF Working Paper, WP/05/151, July. IMF. 2004. World Economic Outlook, April. Ottens, Daniel, Edwin Lambregts, and Steven Poelhekke, 2005. Credit Boom in Emerging Market Economies: A Requipe for Banking Crisis?. DNB Working Papers, Natherlands Central Bank.

4.106 To assess the possible vulnerability of Indias banking sector following rapid growth in credit, the IMF (2006) conducted stress test under three alter native scenar ios, viz., (i) an increase in provisioning to the levels consistent with international 151

best practices; (ii) an increase in NPAs by 25 per cent; and (iii) an increase in NPAs due to a portion of the new loans becoming non-performing. The results reveal that the banking system as a whole is resilient to the tightening of provisioning

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Box IV.12 Credit Boom and Monetary Policy

There is no consensus among policy makers and academics about central bank reaction to a situation of credit boom. One strand of view asserts that monetary policy should be used to target the economy and not the asset markets. To the extent a stock market boom causes or simply forecasts sharply higher spending on consumer goods, policy tightening might be employed to contain incipient inflation and not the asset price boom. This view doubts the ability of monetary authority to address the asset price bubble. It is often difficult to adjudge exante as to whether asset price movements are bubbles or not. Second, even if the bubble is identified, the typical monetary tightening measures such as increase in interest rates may not be effective in deflating an asset price bubble (Mohan, 2005). Again, if a central bank believes that a bubble does exist, it would be substituting its judgment for that of the market and it implies that it is better equipped than financial professionals. On the other hand, there are experts who believe that existence of bubble could be diagnosed on the basis of indicators such as rapid growth of credit, returns on stocks, price-earning ratio, etc. However, the issue remains, whether these rates/ratios are reliable indicators. Moreover, monetary policy is often considered to be too blunt an instrument to achieve financial stability by selectively targeting a sector of the economy. A generalised approach towards bubble popping may succeed only at the risk of strangulating a genuine economic boom. There is another view which states that credit booms and consequent asset bubbles are essentially the result of inadequate regulation. Financial liberalisation in the face of poorly regulated and supervised banks and inappropriate incentive structure have led to increased boom and bust credit cycles in emerging economies (Hernandez et al, 2002 and Barth et al, 2002). Thus, monetary authority should ideally use its regulatory and supervisory powers to prepare the financial system for the contingency of a large shock to asset prices (Bernanke, 2002). References: Barth, James R., Gerard Caprio Jr., and Ross Levin. 2002. Financial Regulation and Performance: Cross-country Evidence. in Banking, Financial Integration and International Crisis. (eds.) Lenardo Hernandez and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel. 113-41. Central Bank of Chile, Santiago. Bernanke, Ben S. 2002. Asset Price Bubbles and Monetary Policy. BIS Review, No.59, BIS. Hernandez, L., and O. Landerretche. 2002. Capital Inflows, Credit Booms and Macroeconomic Vulnerability: The CrossCountry Experience. in Banking Financial Integration and International Crises, Central Bank of Chile, Santiago. Mohan, Rakesh. 2005. Some Apparent Puzzles for Contemporary Monetary Policy. RBI Bulletin, December.

requirements and to the deterioration in asset quality that may accompany during periods of rapid credit

growth (Table 4.26). The analysis suggests that though the recent rapid credit growth does pose
(Per cent to GDP)

Table 4.20: Credit to the Private Sector

Country 1 Mexico Indonesia Russian Federation Poland Sri Lanka Philippines Brazil India Chile Canada France Thailand Japan Singapore Australia Germany Malaysia New Zealand Spain Hong Kong, China United Kingdom United States 1980 2 19 9 .. .. 17 42 42 25 47 67 101 41 132 81 26 77 49 21 74 .. 28 112 1985 3 13 19 .. 4 21 27 42 30 69 65 74 58 151 106 35 84 87 25 67 .. 47 128 1990 4 17 47 .. 21 20 22 39 30 47 76 94 83 196 97 62 89 69 76 78 161 116 144 1995 5 29 54 9 17 31 45 37 29 54 77 86 140 203 106 69 100 124 92 72 150 115 173 2000 6 18 20 13 27 29 44 36 32 63 77 85 108 193 111 87 119 140 113 98 153 133 231 2001 7 16 18 16 27 28 40 35 33 63 80 88 97 187 130 88 118 149 112 101 152 138 225 2002 8 19 19 18 27 29 37 36 37 65 81 86 103 176 114 91 117 146 114 106 148 142 212 2003 9 17 21 21 28 30 35 35 37 62 81 89 103 103 115 98 115 141 118 114 149 148 236 2004 10 17 24 24 27 32 34 35 41 63 86 91 97 99 106 102 112 130 121 125 148 156 249 2005 11 18 25 26 28 .. 31 41 47 66 88 94 96 99 102 109 112 127 133 146 146 166 260

.. : Not available. Source: World Development Indicators, Online Database, World Bank and Reserve Bank of India.

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Table 4.21: Number of Loan Accounts Select Countries

(Per 100 persons) Country 1 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. Argentina Bangladesh Belgium Brazil Chile Denmark Greece India Italy Malaysia Pakistan Russia Singapore Spain Thailand Turkey December December December June December December December March December December December December January December December December As at 2 2003 2003 2002 2002 2003 2002 2003 2006 2002 2003 2004 2003 2005 2003 2004 2003 Loan Account 3 15.4 5.5 5.9 5.0 41.8 45.1 77.6 15.8 32.8 32.9 2.2 5.4 51.3 55.6 24.8 26.5

Table 4.23: Region-Wise Number of Credit Accounts per 100 Persons Scheduled Commercial Banks in India
1991 Region 1 Northern North-East Eastern Central Western Southern All-India 2 6.6 4.4 7.2 5.8 6.2 13.6 7.9 2005 Rural 3 5.1 3.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 12.7 6.0 1991 2005 1991 2005 Total 5 6.7 3.9 4.3 4.5 12.2 17.4 9.8 6 6.4 4.4 6.6 5.5 5.7 11.8 7.3 7 5.7 3.3 4.2 4.3 7.5 14.2 7.0

Urban 4 5.9 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.8 7.6 5.5

Source : Mohan (2006b).

GDP is still moderate, capital adequacy ratios are sufficiently high and the NPA ratios are low. Pricing of Credit 4.107 In April 2003, the system of PLRs was replaced by a system of benchmark prime lending rate (BPLR) as indicated in Section III. Bulk of the bank lending, however, has been taking place at subBPLR rates. The share of sub-BPLR lending increased steadily to 82.0 per cent by March 2007 (Table 4.27). 4.108 An analysis of the trends in BPLR vis--vis policy rates suggests some downward stickiness in BPLR. In response to decline in the policy rates, banks tended to alter the margin below BPLR in line with the market condition, while leaving the BPLR unchanged. On the other hand, hike in policy rates were promptly followed by upward revisions in BPLR. As a result, the spread between the BPLR and the policy rate tended to widen over the years (Chart IV.19). Table 4.24: Incidence of Indebtedness of Households in India*
(Per cent) Year 1 Rural 2 42.8 20.0 23.4 26.5 Urban 3 17.4 19.3 17.8

Source : Beck, Kunt and Peria (2005) and Reserve Bank of India.

some risks, at the moment these risks do not appear to be significant as the aggregate ratio of credit to Table 4.22: Commercial Bank Credit Penetration in India
Item 1 1. Number of Credit Accounts as per cent of Adult Population a) Rural b) Urban 2. Number of Credit Accounts as per cent of Number of Households a) Rural b) Urban 1981 1991 2001 2005 2 3 4 5

4.9 4.5

7.7 12.8

7.9 8.0

9.5 14.2

18.0 15.1

44.3 29.9 17.3 24.8

26.5 28.4 15.8 31.1

32.2 50.2 22.3 45.0

3. Amount of Credit as per cent of GDP a) Rural 13.0 b) Urban 20.0 4. Small Borrrowal Accounts as per cent of all Credit Accounts a) Rural b) Urban 5. Share of Small Borrowal Accounts in Total Credit Accounts a) Rural b) Urban

80.0 50.7

61.6 32.2

1971 1981 1991 2002

25.4 2.0

14.4 0.9

: Not available. Source : Basic Statistical Returns of Scheduled Commercial Banks, in India, various issues, Reserve Bank of India.

* : Incidence of Indebtedness defined as percentage of house holds indebted in total num ber of households debted among those surveyed. : Not Available. Source : NSSO (2006a).

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Table 4.25: Debt-Asset Ratio of Households

(Per cent) Year 1 1971 1981 1991 2002 : Not available. Source: NSSO (2006a). Rural 2 4.42 1.83 1.78 2.84 Urban 3 2.54 2.51 2.82

Table 4.27: Share of Loans Extended at SubBPLR Rates by Scheduled Commercial Banks*
(Per cent) Period Public Sector Banks 2 33.2 62.0 50.6 57.3 60.9 59.4 63.6 66.5 70.6 72.5 76.3 Private Sector Banks 3 50.4 75.3 78.1 80.5 80.9 83.0 85.1 88.0 87.5 88.2 91.8 Foreign Banks 4 64.5 80.9 88.6 89.7 85.5 84.9 85.1 80.0 80.1 78.6 72.4 All Banks

1 September 2004 December 2004 March 2005 June 2005 September 2005 December 2005 March 2006 June 2006 September 2006 December 2006 March 2007

5 38.9 65.1 58.9 64.2 66.8 68.4 69.2 74.8 75.3 77.3 82.0

4.109 The policy rate was revised downwards 10 times between October 13, 2000 and October 25, 2005. During this period, however, the BPLR by one Table 4.26: Stress Tests: Capital Adequacy Ratio under various Scenarios
(Per cent) All Pubic Old New Foreign Ten Banks Sector Private Private Banks Largest Banks Banks Sector Banks Banks 1 Actual at endMarch 2005 Stress Test Scenarios i) Increased Provisioning ii) NPAs increased by 25 Per cent iii) New Loans become NPAs at the same rate as Old Loans 12.0 10.4 11.9 10.0 10.7 7.5 11.7 11.1 13.8 13.2 11.8 10.1 2 3 4 5 6 7

: Not available. * : As per cent of total lending. Source: Reserve Bank of India.

12.8

12.8

12.5

12.1

14.1

12.7

representative large bank was revised only 6 times and the lag varied between 6 to 13 months. However, on occasions when the policy rate was revised upwards, the bank was quick to respond with the time lag as low as 20 days (Table 4.28). 4.110 While the BPLR exhibited stickiness, effective lending rates appeared to be sensitive to market conditions. Since bulk of the lending has been taking place at sub-BPLR rates, the rate of discount on commercial paper (CP rate) could be taken as a good proxy for effective bank lending rates in the country. The CP rate was found to be moving in tandem with the weighted average yield on government securities (Chart IV.20).

9.4

8.8

6.0

10.7

12.8

9.0

Source : Rozhkov (2006).

Chart IV.19: Policy Rates and Lending Rates of Banks

Changes in Policy Rates and Lending Rates Benchmark Prime Lending Rate Spread (BPLR - Repo)

Per cent

01-Nov-00 01-Feb-01 01-May-01 01-Aug-01 01-Nov-01 01-Feb-02 01-May-02 01-Aug-02 01-Nov-02 01-Feb-03 01-May-03 01-Aug-03 01-Nov-03 01-Feb-04 01-May-04 01-Aug-04 01-Nov-04 01-Feb-05 01-May-05 01-Aug-05 01-Nov-05 01-Feb-06 01-May-06 01-Aug-06 01-Nov-06 01-Feb-07

Per cent

Bank Rate

PLR

Repo Rate

Reverse Repo Rate

154

13-Oct-00 13-Jan-01 13-Apr-01 13-Jul-01 13-Oct-01 13-Jan-02 13-Apr-02 13-Jul-02 13-Oct-02 13-Jan-03 13-Apr-03 13-Jul-03 13-Oct-03 13-Jan-04 13-Apr-04 13-Jul-04 13-Oct-04 13-Jan-05 13-Apr-05 13-Jul-05 13-Oct-05 13-Jan-06 13-Apr-06 13-Jul-06 13-Oct-06 13-Jan-07

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Table 4.28: Changes in the Repo Rate and Advance Rate of Scheduled Commercial Banks
Repo Rate Effective Date 1 13.10.2000 06.11.2000 09.03.2001 30.04.2001 07.06.2001 28.03.2002 12.11.2002 07.03.2003 19.03.2003 31.03.2004 26.10.2005 24.01.2006 09.06.2006 25.07.2006 31.10.2006 31.01.2007 31.03.2007 Rate (Per cent) 2 10.25 10.00 9.00 8.75 8.50 8.00 7.50 7.10 7.00 6.00 6.25 6.50 6.75 7.00 7.25 7.50 7.75 02.08.2006 22.12.2006 20.02.2007 11.00 11.50 12.25 01.05.2006 10.75 05.05.2003 01.01.2004 10.50 10.25 01.04.2002 01.11.2002 11.00 10.75 Advance Rate of Commercial Banks* Effective Date 3 01.03.1999 01.04.2000 12.08.2000 19.02.2001 Rate (Per cent) 4
Per cent

Chart IV.20: Lending Rate and Yield on Government Securities

12.00 11.25 12.00 11.50

Lending Rate

Commercial Paper Rate

Yield of Government Securities

* : Data pertain to one representative large bank.

and lent funds at fixed interest rates and faced little competition. Banks operated under regulator y constraints, whereby bulk of their resources were preempted in the form of CRR and SLR. Banks also lacked operational flexibility and functional autonomy. Credit institutions intermediated funds inefficiently, which was reflected in their high NPAs, high intermediation cost and low profitability. Table 4.29: Intermediation Cost of Banks of Major Asian Countries*
(Per cent) Year 1 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 China 2 1.23 1.24 1.40 1.18 1.12 1.10 1.05 1.01 Korea 3 2.24 2.55 2.53 1.53 1.46 1.42 1.39 1.38 Malaysia 4 1.42 1.49 1.68 1.50 1.70 1.80 1.73 1.61 Thailand 5 1.50 2.05 2.54 2.20 1.98 2.01 1.78 1.71 India 6 2.94 2.85 2.63 2.67 2.50 2.64 2.19 2.24 2.21 2.13 2.11

Cost of Intermediation 4.111 The calibrated deregulation of the banking system and the entry of several private and foreign banks gradually induced greater competition, prompting banks to alter their business strategy and management practices which, along with technological developments, led to overall improvement in efficiency. This was reflected in the inter mediation cost (operating expenses as percentage to total assets), which decelerated from 2.77 per cent in 1996 to 2.11 in 2006. Notwithstanding this improvement, intermediation cost of banks in India is still high in comparison with other countries (Table 4.29). There is, thus, scope to bring it down to the level of intermediation cost of banks in other Asian countries. Transformation of the Credit Market 4.112 The analysis in the preceding sections reveals that there has been a profound transformation of the credit market since the early 1990s. Prior to initiation of financial sector reforms, credit institutions borrowed 155

: Not Available * Intermediation cost represents operating expenses as percentage to total assets. Source :1. Mohan (2006c). 2. Report on Trend and Progress of Banking in India, various issues, Reserve Bank of India.

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

4.113 The initiation of financial sector reforms facilitated a gradual move away from a financially repressed regime to a liberalised regime. Banks now operate in an environment in which they have the freedom to innovate and expand their business. With deregulation of interest rates, banks price their products freely both on the liability and the asset sides. The competition has intensified on account of entry of new private sector banks and enhanced presence of foreign banks. Several other significant changes have also occurred both on the supply and demand sides of the credit market. 4.114 On the supply side, reduction in statutory preemptions boosted the supply side of the credit. Accommodative monetary policy followed by the Reserve Bank between April 1998 and October 2004 also provided ample liquidity to the system, which had a positive impact on the supply of credit. The introduction of asset classification norms have made banks very sensitive to their asset quality, whereby banks restrict the supply of credit when faced with large NPLs and increase the supply when NPLs are at reasonable levels. The cleansing of balance sheets by banks have enabled them to recycle the resources locked up in unproductive assets and improve their profitability. With the introduction of capital adequacy norms, banks are able to expand the credit volumes only after expanding the capital base. Raising of capital by banks from the market has, therefore, become critical in their lending operations. It has also subjected them to market discipline and encouraged them to improve corporate governance practices. With the increased competition, spreads of banks have come under pressure. In order to maintain their profitability, banks, therefore, have tended to increase the credit volumes. Thus, from an environment when banks resorted to some sort of credit rationing, they are now increasingly exploring new avenues of expanding their business volumes. In the process, the segmentation of the credit mar ket has almost disappeared with banks now providing also long-term resources, apart from the traditional short-term funds. 4.115 On the demand side, robust economic growth has increased the demand for credit. Apart from the traditional sectors, the household sector has emerged as the major driver of demand for bank credit. Rising income levels and increase in asset prices have stimulated the demand for credit by the household sector. 4.116 The credit mar ket is now also closely integrated with other market segments such as the money, the gover nment securities, the foreign exchange markets, the equity market and the debt 156

market. Conditions in the money market have a direct impact on the credit market, albeit, with a lag. On the other hand, credit market conditions impact the government securities market. Banks have resorted to liquidation of government securities in order to fund their credit demand. The linkage between the credit market and the equity market has also grown on account of participation by banks in the equity market for raising capital. Securitisation of assets has also linked the credit market with the corporate debt market. To the extent, the inter-linkages of the credit market with the other markets have grown, the efficacy of transmission channel of monetary policy has also increased. 4.117 Information technology (IT) has made steady inroads into the credit institutions and has brought about a significant change in many aspects in the form of computerisation of transactions and new delivery channels such as ATMs. With migration of traditional paper-based funds movements to quicker and more efficient electronic mode, funds transfers have become easy and efficient to perform. Quicker fund settlement has a direct bearing on the availability of money which, in turn, has a positive impact on the liquidity management. The increased competition and deregulation have exposed credit institutions to various risks, which have encouraged them to adopt appropriate risk management. Banks with proper risk management system are able to properly price their products and services. Thus, the credit market over the years has become highly competitive, more efficient and better integrated with other markets. 4.118 To sum up, a wide range of credit institutions operate in the country. The relative significance of banks, which are already predominant players in the credit market, has increased partly due to conversion of two DFIs into banks. After witnessing sluggish conditions in the second half of the 1990s, credit extended by banks expanded rapidly beginning 200203, under pinned by robust macroeconomic performance. The decline in NPLs in recent years also appeared to have encouraged banks to enlarge their credit portfolio. A welcome development has been large credit expansion to the agriculture sector in the last few years, reversing the decelerating trend of the 1990s. This was also reflected in the increased credit intensity of the agriculture sector. In comparison with the 1980s, credit to the industr y slowed down somewhat in the 1990s as also during the current decade so far (up to 2005-06). This was despite the sharp increase in medium and long-term credit to industry, which is supposedly for the project-related activity. This suggests that banks have been filling the

CREDIT MARKET

gap created by the conversion/merger of two DFIs into banks. Credit intensity of the industrial sector, on the whole, has increased. Credit growth to the SSI sector, which decelerated sharply between 19992004, reversed from 2004-05. A significant development in recent years has been a sharp decline in the share of cash credit and increase in the share of demand loans. 4.119 A major development in the credit market has been rapid expansion of credit to the household sector, under pinned by benign interest rate environment and increase in income levels. Household credit now constitutes a significant share of total bank credit. Empirical evidence suggests that credit trends since May 2002 are structurally at variance with the past relationships. Cross-country experience shows that rapid credit expansion has led to difficulties in several countries. In the Indian context, however, the indebtedness of the household sector, the main driver of credit growth in recent years, is at a low level. The banking sector is robust with a high level of capital adequacy and low level of NPAs. Stress tests also suggest that the banking sector is resilient enough to withstand adverse impacts that may arise out of rapid credit expansion. 4.120 Although deposits continue to be the main source of funds, banks reliance on non-deposit resources has increased. While the BPLR is exhibiting downward stickiness, banks are extending a large portion of their credit at sub-BPLR rates. As a result, the effective lending rates are in sync with the market conditions. The cost of intermediation has declined steadily even though it is still higher than many other EMEs. V. THE WAY FORWARD 4.121 With the initiation of financial sector reforms, the Reserve Bank gradually relaxed various controls in the credit market and switched over from microregulation to macro and prudential regulation. Restr ictions on credit and their pr icing were progressively removed. This combined with increased competition induced banks, major players in the credit market, to diversify their loan portfolios in line with the diversification of the economy. However, while credit flows to agriculture and the SME sector have increased in recent years, the need is to further increase the flow of credit to these sectors, particularly to SMEs. To facilitate increased access to formal channels of credit and to enable the credit market to
4

play an important role to sustain the growth process, several short to medium-term issues need to be addressed. Rural Credit 4.122 According to the latest available All-India Debt and Investment Survey 2002, the share of institutional agencies in outstanding cash debts of the households declined from 66.3 per cent in 1991 to 57.1 per cent in 2002, with a corresponding increase in reliance on informal channels of credit. Although, the share of institutional credit might have risen on account of significant increase in bank credit to agr iculture in recent years, concer ns about inadequate access to credit in rural areas remain. 4.123 Although the supply led approach to rural credit prior to the 1990s ensured availability of credit at a subsidised rate, it turned out to be financially unsustainable as it impacted the health of credit institutions adversely. While there is certainly a need to increase the flow of credit to the agricultural sector, there are some critical issues that need to be addressed. Some of these issues have already been raised by the Honble Prime Minister4 . These are: (i) What do farmers need a lower rate of interest or reliable access to credit at reasonable rates?; (ii) Is our existing institutional framework adequate for meeting the requirements of our farmers who are a diverse lot?; (iii) Do we need to create new institutional structures such as SHG, micro-finance institutions, etc., to provide improved and reliable access to credit? Or do we need to bring in money lenders under some form of regulation? It is necessary to find answers to these questions in the near future. 4.124 Reliable access to credit is more crucial than the cost of credit. The Reserve Bank, therefore, has been initiating several measures from time to time to extend the outreach of the credit institutions in underserved areas. The branch licensing policy favours opening branches in unbanked districts/areas. Banks have also been permitted to use the services of business facilitators and business correspondents to extend their outreach. Banks are now increasingly roping in non-government organisations, SHGs, and MFIs to act as intermediaries. The SHG-Bank linkage programme is expected to gain further ground with NABARD taking up a programme for intensification of these activities in 13 identified States, which account for 70.0 per cent of the rural poor population.

Address at the Second Agriculture Summit, October 18, 2006.

157

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

4.125 Some aspects of operations of MFIs, however, have also raised some concerns. Although microfinance activities should be commercially viable, it is reported that some MFIs are charging very high interest rates, which could prove to be counter-productive in the long run. While informality of micro-finance structure is important, NABARD and banks need to build appropriate indigenous/local safeguards against such practices and in their relationship with MFIs. Credit to the SME Sector 4.126 SMEs are more constrained in their financing options than large firms. In the absence of adequate credit from the credit institutions, they have to depend largely on their internal generation, which constrains their growth. As credit to the SME sector is crucial for sustaining the growth momentum in the economy, the Reser ve Bank has taken several measures to streamline the credit flow and address structural problems in credit delivery to this sector. This is showing some encouraging results and the need is to sustain the recent growth trends. One major issue is that banks perceive the SME sector as more risky and, hence, they charge relatively high rate of interest on loans and insist on collateral.The Reserve Bank has advised banks not to insist on collateral for loans up to Rs.5 lakh and for loans above Rs.5 lakhs and up to Rs.25 lakh, banks may consider dispensing with the collateral requirement based on good track record and financial position of the SSI unit. There are several ways which may resolve this issue and facilitate extension of credit without collateral. One such option is the availability of credit history of the borrowers. However, building up of credit history of a large number of borrowers spread throughout the country, especially small borrowers, is a difficult task. The Credit Information Bureau (India) Limited has already become operational. The Credit Information Act was passed in May 2005, and rules and regulations thereunder have also been notified.This will facilitate formation of more credit information companies. These companies would collect and disseminate credit information about the borrowers and may also introduce credit scoring as in other countries. These should help in improving the quality of credit, reducing the transaction cost and improving the flow of credit to the SME sector. Another option to avoid the collateral requirement is to introduce independent rating of borrowers, both individuals and firms. At present, rating penetration is very low in the country and cost involved in getting the rating is high. Concerted efforts, therefore, need to be made to 158

popularise rating as a concept acceptable to both the lenders and the borrowers. Yet another option is to consider future cash flows as collateral security such as account receivables in place of asset based collateral. 4.127 There has been a burst of entrepreneurship across the country, spanning rural, semi-urban and urban areas. This has to be nurtured and financed. It is only through growth of enterprises across all sizes that competition will be fostered. A small entrepreneur today will be a big entrepreneur tomorrow, and might well become a multinational enterprise eventually if given the comfort of financial support. But we also have to understand that there will be failures as well as successes. Banks will, therefore, have to tone up their risk assessment and risk management capacities, and provide for these failures as part of their risk management. Despite the risk, financing of first time entrepreneurs is necessary for financial inclusion and growth. The financing of non-agriculture service enterprises in rural areas would generate new income and employment opportunities (Mohan, 2006b). Increasing Credit Penetration 4.128 Although India has a well-diversified financial system with a wide variety of credit institutions, credit penetration continues to be relatively low in compar ison with several other developed and emerging economies. This is despite the fact that several measures have been taken in the recent past to bring more and more people, especially the underprivileged and low income households, into the banking fold. In an ideal world, competitive pressures would ensure that the banking needs of all the segments of the population are met. However, the experience shows that some intervention may be required to ensure that people with low incomes are provided with credit facilities at a reasonable cost. Concerted efforts, therefore, need to be made to increase the credit penetration in the country. Major reasons for low credit penetration are lack of awareness of facilities, high transaction cost of doing business in rural areas and inability of the poor people to provide collaterals. 4.129 The under-privileged sections of the society with low income levels generally hesitate to visit the bank and are driven to local money lenders. There is, therefore, need to devise some mechanisms to impart financial education, especially in rural areas. The focus of financial education should be on educating the general public about the benefits of using formal credit institutions for their requirements.

CREDIT MARKET

4.130 A major issue in increasing credit penetration is the collateral that banks insist on for extending loans. While banks are being induced to provide small loans without collateral, banks need to consider alternative ways to reduce their dependence on collateral. 4.131 Another major issue in increasing the flow of credit is related to the high transaction costs. This, however, could be resolved through appropriate application of technology. Banks need to look into low cost delivery alternatives offered by IT. It can make a critical contribution by reducing cost and time in processing of applications, and maintaining and reconciliation of accounts. Use of a variety of devices such as weekly banking, mobile banking, satellite offices, and adoption of hub and spoke models can considerably cut the overhead cost for enabling banking services in remote areas. Once the data base and the track record are established, a multitude of financial services can be offered, including savings, remittances, transaction and banking such as receipt of salaries, pensions and payments for utilities, loans including home loans, insurance and mutual fund products. 4.132 One aspect, however, that needs to be taken care of while introducing IT-based products and services is low level of literacy and technology orientation and awareness about IT-based products in rural areas. Language is another barrier in the use of technology, which is largely English-based. Thus, banks would have to make efforts to popularise the new IT-based products. In this regard, due consideration to regional languages and programmes to impart some basic education in IT needs to be given. 4.133 However, the policy on increasing credit penetration may not yield the desired results by focusing on commercial banks alone. A comprehensive approach involving other institutions such as cooperatives and State level financial institutions is also desirable. Moreover, it is necessary to create an environment that promotes the emergence of sustainable financial service providers to work in under-served markets. Pricing of Credit 4.134 Pricing of credit has drawn considerable attention since the deregulation of bank lending rates. Although interest rates are now driven by demandsupply forces, some downward stickiness has been observed in banks BPLR. Further, around 82 per cent of the lending by banks is taking place at sub-BPLR rates, which raises several concerns. While better creditworthy corporates are getting credit at sub159

BPLR rates, the agriculture and SSIs sectors and other borrowers, in general, are charged BPLR or in some cases even higher rates. The administered interest rate is applicable only in the case of agricultural loans below Rs. 2 lakh and export credit. Banks can also extend short-term production credit to farmers up to Rs. 3 lakh at an interest rate of 7 per cent on which the banks are being provided interest subvention of 2 per cent by the Government. The All India Debt and Investment Survey 2002 found that about 82 per cent of the rural debt as of June 30, 2002 was in the interest range of 12 to 20 per cent, while prime lending rates (PLRs) of banks were in the range of 11 to 12 per cent. 4.135 Lending below the BPLR has several implications. First, it lacks transparency and, hence, affects both lenders and borrowers. Second, to compensate for sub-BPLR lending, other segments are charged higher rate of interest, thus, leading to cross subsidisation of the economically well-off borrowers by the economically poor borrowers. Though the Reserve Bank has been advising banks to evolve their own BPLR by taking into account the cost of funds, transaction cost and reasonable cover for the riskiness, fixation of the BPLR continues to be more arbitrary than rule based. It is, therefore, felt that the concept of arriving at the BPLR needs to be looked into with a view to making it more transparent. Improving Efficiency 4.136 Improved efficiency in lending operations (and also in other banking business) can reduce the operating expenditure, interest spread and cost of intermediation in general (Mohan, 2006c). This may help in reducing the rate of interest on loans and, thus, facilitating improved credit flow to the various sectors of the economy. Although the intermediation cost in India has declined since the early 1990s, it is still high in comparison with other advanced and emerging market economies. It is, therefore, imperative that the intermediation cost is brought down. Technological improvement in bank operations holds the key in further improving efficiency and, thus, reducing the cost of operations. Credit Counselling 4.137 While there is a need to encourage innovations and competition in the marketplace, it is also necessary to provide adequate protection to consumers. However, some of todays products have become difficult for consumers to understand because

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

they are complex, and lack transparency and standardised information. Credit is a source of risk. However, some consumers could take out loans that are inappropriate and expensive. Some consumers may also be dr iven into debt by change in circumstances. There is, therefore, need to provide consumers with right information and at the right time to enable them to take informed decisions. With the changing growth dynamics, certain segments of the population could also become susceptible to excessive optimism in the economic environment. In view of these reasons, it would be very useful to establish credit counselling institutions for educating individuals to assess their credit demand and debt management in order to mitigate the bankruptcy risk. Furthermore, credit counselling institutions can also remove asymmetric information in rural credit and can help individuals by guiding them to access credit from various available sources. From the perspective of a regulator, financial education delivered through credit counselling can empower the common person and, thus, reduce the mar ket failure attributable to information asymmetries. 4.138 In several countries, the system of credit counselling organisastions is already in operation. The first well-known credit counselling agency was created in 1951 in the United States to promote financial literacy and help consumers to avoid bankruptcy. Subsequently, several other countries established such organisations. For instance, the Banking Code in the UK provides that member banks shall discuss financial problems with customers and together evolve a plan for resolving these problems. Canada established a non-profit counselling organisation in 2000 called Credit Counselling Canada (CCC), which seeks to enhance the quality and availability of notfor-profit credit counselling for all its citizens. The Bank Negara Malaysia has established a Credit Counselling and Debt Management (CCDM) agency to provide advice to individuals on credit counselling and loan restructuring. The arrangement is expected to be a prompt and cost-effective means of debt settlement based on the repayment plan between the creditor and the debtor without intervention of courts. In view of r ising personal bankr uptcies, pr imar ily on unsecured debt, Credit Counselling of Singapore (CCS) was established in 2003 to assist financially distressed consumers. In India, the working group constituted by the Reser ve Bank to examine procedures and processes for agricultural loans (Chairman: Shri C. P. Swarankar) recommended that banks should actively consider opening of counselling centres, either individually or with pooled resources, 160

for credit and technical counselling with a view to giving special thrust to the relatively underdeveloped regions. Strengthening of Credit Appraisal, Pr udential Regulation and Supervisory Standards 4.139 While increase in credit in the Indian context reflects financial sector deepening, the process has to be gradual. Excessive credit expansion could lead to macroeconomic and financial vulnerabilities. The rapid credit growth has been often considered as risky as even weaker borrowers may be judged creditwor thy. Excessive optimism about future earnings might lead banks to focus on credit creation to the detriment of credit monitoring and risk appraisal, which could lead to increase in non-performing loans. In view of rapid credit growth in recent years, banks need to strengthen their credit appraisal standards and ensure appropriate post-disbursal monitoring. 4.140 Prudential regulation and supervision is extremely important during periods of rapid credit expansion. The Reserve Bank has already taken several significant prudential measures to moderate the credit growth to the sensitive sectors. As stated in the Mid-ter m Review of the Annual Policy Statement, 2005-06, a supervisory review process was initiated in respect of select banks having significant exposure to certain sectors, namely, real estate, highly leveraged NBFCs, venture capital funds and capital markets. The quality of supervision has improved significantly with the setting up of the Board for Financial Supervision, which now gives focused attention to the supervision of all financial institutions. Efforts are also being made to make the supervisory system risk-based, for which pilot runs are on. Appropriate early warning system and the surveillance systems are also in place. The need, however, is to keep the supervisory machinery well-functioning. VI. SUMMING UP 4.141 The credit market is the most significant segment of the financial market structure in India. The credit market in India has witnessed significant transformation in the last 15 years in terms of type of borrowers/type of instruments and price of credit. With the conversion of two DFIs into banks and reduction in the business operations of NBFCs, the predominance of banking institutions in the credit market has increased. However, with enhanced freedom for business operations and increased presence of private and foreign banks and non-bank credit institutions, the credit market has become highly

CREDIT MARKET

competitive as new banks are making every effort to increase their share in the credit market. The credit market has also diversified in terms of borrowing entities and the purposes for which credit is extended. Reflecting the changing structure of the economy, the services sector along with the household sector have emerged as significant borrowers from the banking sector. 4.142 The trend of declining share of credit to agriculture in the 1990s has been reversed as there has been rapid credit expansion to this sector in the last few years. This reflects the concerted efforts being made by the Reserve Bank and the Government. Credit to industry slowed down in the 1990s and the current decade as compared with the 1980s. Internal funds generation, as a result of improved financial performance, has limited the short-term borrowing needs of industry. Credit growth to the SSI sector, which had decelerated between 1999-2000 and 200304, has accelerated in the last two years. The need is to further strengthen the flow of credit to the SSI sector. Banks in recent years have reoriented their services to the household sector. Increase in the share of medium and long-term loans to industry and the strong growth of housing loans resulted in sharp increase in the share of medium and long-term loans in total credit in recent years. Given the short-term character of bank deposits, a significant increase in overall medium and long-term credit may have implications for banks asset liability management (ALM). 4.143 Bank credit has expanded at a rapid pace from 2002-03. One of the most significant changes in the composition of bank credit in recent years has been the large increase in the share of the household sector. Rapid credit expansion, to an extent, has been encouraged by improvement in asset quality as credit intermediation function was impaired in the mid-1990s on account of high level of NPAs. Empirical evidence suggests that credit trends since May 2002 are structurally at variance with the past relationships, although credit expansion in recent years has also been pro-cyclical in nature. 4.144 Many other emerging market economies have also been experiencing rapid credit expansion in recent years. Several factors have contributed to rapid credit expansion in emerging mar ket economies such as robust growth, macroeconomic stabilisation, strong economic outlook and improvement in business confidence. However, in the case of India, the credit-GDP ratio has been low in compar ison with other EMEs. Strong credit

expansion in recent years, thus, to some extent reflects the financial deepening process. Although borrowings by the household sector have increased sharply in recent years, the debt-asset ratio of the household sector continues to be low. However, there is a need to recognise that large accumulation of debt could leave households prone to future interest rate/exchange rate shocks as banks have transferred a large part of their market risk to households, thus, raising concerns over sustainability of high credit growth to households. Insofar as the banking sector is concerned, it, in general, has high capital adequacy ratio and low level of non-performing loans. Stress tests suggest that the banking sector in India is resilient enough to withstand any adverse impact arising out of rapid expansion in credit. Nevertheless, keeping in view the risks arising out of rapid credit growth, the Reserve Bank initiated several prudential and monetary measures to slowdown the flow of credit to the sensitive sectors and maintain the asset quality of banking institutions. The need for banks is to strengthen credit appraisal and post-disbursal monitoring. 4.145 A proper functioning of the credit market depends on adequate competition. In a competitive environment, the more efficient institutions capture the market share at the expense of less efficient ones, which improves the overall efficiency of the system. This benefits both the credit institutions and their clients. While gains to credit institutions occur in the form of higher profits, to consumers they occur in the form of lower cost of the services. The process of consolidation and restructuring that is underway in the credit market in India may result in weeding out the inefficient players and the credit market may become more efficient in future. 4.146 Robust economic growth has increased the demand for credit. Proper functioning of credit institutions in general and banks in particular is key to sustained economic growth. In the current situation of high credit expansion, banks have been unwinding their surplus investments in SLR securities, over and above the prescribed minimum. This unwinding would soon reach a limit. Therefore, banks need to make sustained efforts for mobilising stable retail deposits by extending banking facilities and wide-spreading their deposit base. In particular, banks would need to devise imaginative ways to mop up the resources in rural areas to balance their deposit mobilisation and credit expansion.

161

Annex IV.1: Menu of Policy Options in Responding to Rapid Credit Growth

Policy Options

Macroeconomic Policy Measures Supervisory/ Monitoring Measures Market Development Measures Promotion of Better Understanding of Risks

Prudential Measures

Administrative Measures

Fiscal measures Exchange rate policy response - Higher differentiated capital requirements - Encouraging development of hedging instruments to manage risk requirements - Controls on capital flows e.g., - Overall or bankby bank credit limits - Increasing disclosure requirements for banks on risk management and internal control policies and practices - Developing asset management instruments to deal with distressed assets - control on foreign borrowing by banks and/or bank customers

Monetary measures

- Strengthening banks ability to monitor, assess and manage - Public risk awareness campaigns, press statements, etc.

- Fiscal tightening

- Interest rate tightening

- Reserve requirements - Tighter eligibility criteria for certain loans - Dynamic provisioning - Tighter collateral rules - Rules on credit concentration - Tightening net open foreign exchange position limits - Maturity mismatch regulations and guidance to avoid excessive reliance on shortterm borrowing - Periodic monitoring/ survey of banks and customers exposure - Increasing supervisory coordination of banks and nonbank financial institutions - Periodic stress testing - Closer onsite/ off-site inspections/ surveillance of potentially problem banks

- Increase exchange rate flexibility

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

162
- Developing securities markets to reduce dependence on bank credit and improve diversification of banks credit risks - Improving credit culture (establishment of credit bureaus, credit registry, stronger legal system, creditors rights, etc.) - Improved dialogue and exchange of information between domestic and home supervisors of foreign banks - Improving banks and corporations accounting standards

- Liquid asset requirements

- Tighter/ differentiated loan classification and provisioning rules

- Avoiding fiscal/ quasi- fiscal incentives that may encourage certain lending

- Sterilisation operations

- In general maintain a consistent mix of a monetary and exchange rate policy

- different reserve requirements on domestic and foreign currency - taxes on financial intermediation

- Discussions/ meetings with banks (moral suasion) to warn or persuade banks to slow down credit extension

Source: Hilbers, et al, 2005.

CREDIT MARKET

Annex IV.2: Supervisory Measures to Manage Key Risks of Rapid Credit Growth
Type of risk Credit risk

Specific Measures Higher and/or differentiated capital requirements or application of risk weights based on loan type, maturity, and currency composition of credit. Raising general provisions, incorporating various elements of risks (e.g., in foreign currency loans, offshore, derivatives, or other off-balance sheet activities) in loan classification and provisioning requirements (e.g., for bank with rapidly growing portfolios); or dynamic provisioning. Tightening eligibility requirements for certain types of loans including through limits on loan-to-value ratios for certain loans (e.g., for mortgages or foreign exchange loans). Tighter (or appropriate) collateral requirements (e.g., specifying assets eligible for collateral, marked-to-market asset valuation). Rules on credit concentration (limits against large exposures to a single borrower or a group of related borrowers and against connected lending; and limits against credit concentration in particular industries, sectors, or regions). Use of periodic stress tests of banks balance sheets against interest rate, exchange rate, and asset price changes (by banks themselves as well as supervisory authorities). More intensive surveillance and onsite/offsite inspection of potential problem banks. Improved reporting/disclosure rules for banks and their borrowers balance sheets and banks risk management, and internal control policies and practices. Periodic and close monitoring of banks foreign-currency-denominated (or indexed) loans to domestic customers, which do not have adequate sources of foreign exchange or are otherwise unable to hedge the risks involved, including through requirements to conduct periodic surveys of banks and their borrowers foreign exchange exposures. Tightening of net open position limits for banks to limit direct foreign exchange risks. Imposing differentiated capital requirements or risk weights based on the currency composition of credit to limit indirect risks exposure to foreign exchange risks. Incorporating unhedged foreign exchange exposure in the criteria for loan classification and provisioning rules. Tightening eligibility requirements for foreign exchange loans, including by limiting such loans to borrowers with foreign exchange income or adequate hedging, to limit indirect exposure to foreign exchange risks. Periodic stress testing of banks balance sheets with respect to exchange rate changes (by banks themselves as well as supervisory authorities). More intensive surveillance and onsite/offsite inspection of banks with a large share of foreign exchange lending in their overall portfolios, including to ensure that banks have appropriate internal procedures for risk measurement, assessment, and management. Adequate monitoring of banks direct and indirect exposure to foreign exchange risks through improved reporting/ disclosure rules for banks and their borrowers open positions in foreign currency or through a requirement to conduct periodic surveys of banks and their borrowers foreign exchange exposures (by banks themselves and/ or by supervisory authorities). Imposing differentiated capital requirements or risk weights based on the maturity composition of credit. Maturity mismatch regulations (active management of maturity mismatches between bank assets and liabilities, with limits established against such gaps and limits on various instrument exposures incurred by the bank). Use of periodic stress tests of banks balance sheets under alternative scenarios for interest rate changes (by banks themselves as well as supervisory authorities). Enhanced monitoring and reporting requirements on : i) the maturity structure of interest-sensitive assets and liabilities broken down into several daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly maturity buckets, ii) the maturity structure for each currency in which the bank has a substantive position, iii) the types of interest-bearing securities and their maturity breakdown and iv) banks liquid assets, expected future cash flows and liquidity gaps for specified future periods, and details of liquidity management. Guidance to banks to avoid over-reliance on short-term inter-bank borrowing and encouraging access to diversified funding bases in terms of sources of funds and the maturity breakdown of the liabilities taking into account differences in volatility and reliability of domestic and external sources of liquidity.

Direct/indirect foreign exchange

Liquidity/maturity risks

Source: Hilbers, et al, 2005.

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GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET

5.1 The government securities market is at the core of financial markets in most countries. It deals with tradeable debt instruments issued by the Government for meeting its financing requirements.1 The development of the primary segment of this market enables the managers of public debt to raise resources from the market in a cost effective manner with due recognition to associated risks. A vibrant secondary segment of the government securities market helps in the effective operation of monetary policy through application of indirect instruments such as open market operations, for which government securities act as collateral. The government securities market is also regarded as the backbone of fixed income secur ities mar kets as it provides the benchmark yield and imparts liquidity to other financial markets. The existence of an efficient government securities market is seen as an essential precursor, in particular, for development of the corporate debt market. Fur thermore, the government securities market acts as a channel for integration of various segments of the domestic financial market and helps in establishing inter-linkages between the domestic and external financial markets. 5.2 The gover nment secur ities mar ket has witnessed significant transformation across countries over the years in terms of system of issuance, instruments, investors, and trading and settlement infrastructure. It has grown internationally in tune with the financing requirements of Governments. The fiscal discipline exercised by many countries in recent years has restricted the size of the market. Accordingly, countries have focussed on improving trading liquidity of the market through various measures. Many countries in the recent past have pursued a strategy of managing the cost of Government borrowing in the medium to long-term so as to reduce the rollover risk and other market risks in the debt stock, although this may entail higher debt service costs in the short run. Historically, in most countries, the central banks as managers of public debt have played a key role in developing the government securities markets.
1

Although debt management author ities are increasingly being established outside the central banks in various countries, central banks continue to play a major role in developing the trading and settlement infrastructure of the government securities market. 5.3 The evolution of the government securities market in India has been in line with the developments in other countries. Slow development of the market in the 1970s and the 1980s was shaped by the need to meet the growing financing requirements of the Government. This essentially resulted in financial repression as progressively higher statutor y requirements were stipulated, mandating banks to invest in government securities at administered interest rates. Although this captive financing provided low cost resources to the Government, it impeded the development of the market and distorted the interest rate structure. Furthermore, such arrangements, along with automatic monetisation of Government deficits, hampered the conduct of monetary policy. 5.4 Recognising the need for a well developed government securities market, the Reserve Bank, in coordination with the Government, initiated a series of measures from the early 1990s to deregulate the market of administered price and quantity controls. Consequently, the government securities market has witnessed significant transformation in various dimensions, viz., market-based price discovery, widening of investor base, introduction of new instruments, establishment of primary dealers, and electronic trading and settlement infrastructure. This, in turn, has enabled the Reserve Bank to perform its functions in tandem with the evolving economic and financial conditions. 5.5 Wide ranging reforms in the government securities market were largely undertaken in response to the changing economic environment. Increased borrowing requirements of the Government, stemming from high fiscal deficits, had to be met in a cost effective manner without distorting the financial

Governments issue securities with maturities ranging from less than a year to a very long-term stretching up to 50 years. Typically, short-term maturities up to one year, viz., Treasury Bills, form a part of the money market and facilitate the Government's cash management operations, while bonds with maturities more than a year facilitate its medium to long-term financing requirements. This chapter discusses developments with respect to bonds with maturities more than a year. Treasury Bills being short-term instruments are covered in Chapter III.

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET

system. The underlying perspective of the reform process was, therefore, to raise government debt at mar ket related rates through an appropr iate management of market borrowing. There was also a need to develop a benchmark for other fixed income instruments for the purposes of their pricing and valuation. An active secondary market for government securities was also needed for operating monetary policy through indirect instruments such as open market operations and repos. Reforms, therefore, focussed on the development of appropriate market infrastr ucture, elongation of matur ity profile, increasing the width and depth of the market, improving risk management practices and increasing transparency. 5.6 As stipulated under the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act, 2003, the Reserve Bank has withdrawn from participating in the primary market for government securities from April 1, 2006. The increasing move towards fuller capital account convertibility as recommended by the Committee on Fuller Capital Account Conver tibility (FCAC) (Chairman: Shri S.S. Tarapore) would necessitate measures that promote greater integration of the domestic financial markets with global markets. The deepening of the government securities market is, therefore, essential not only for transmission of policy signals but also for developing the derivatives market which would meet future challenges thrown up by further liberalisation of the capital account. Moreover, an environment of freer capital flows will also necessitate widening of the gover nment securities market with further diversification of the investor base. 5.7 Against this backdrop, this chapter traces the development of the government securities market in India since the early 1990s, in order to identify the key issues that need to be addressed to meet the emerging challenges. The chapter is organised in six sections. Section I sets out the theoretical underpinnings, and principles and policy strategy for developing a deep and liquid government securities market. Section II presents international experiences in terms of key features of the government securities market in developed and developing countries. Section III outlines the developments in the government securities market in India since the early 1990s and the role played by the Reserve Bank in shaping it. An assessment of the gover nment securities market in terms of various indicators is presented in Section IV. Drawing from the lessons from international experiences, Section V raises the key issues that need to be addressed for enabling 165

the government securities market to play a more effective role in the emerging scenario. The final section presents concluding observations. I. ROLE OF THE GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET

Theoretical underpinnings 5.8 The supply of gover nment securities is generally exogenous to the market, determined mainly by the fiscal policy of the Government. The demand for government securities may be fragmented into several components implying that the demand curve is not uniformly downward sloping, but is rather kinked (Commonwealth of Australia, 2002). For instance, the demand by investors such as insurance companies and superannuation funds is in the nature of buy and hold as the revenue streams from government securities generally match with their liability payment stream. These investors may have very few substitutes and, hence, their demand is less price sensitive. Mandated investments in government securities by banks and other institutions would also fall into the category of buy and hold. The demand from other investors in government securities is more for active trading and portfolio management. These investors may have many substitutes for government securities and, hence, their demand is generally more price elastic. The overall demand elasticity is, therefore, determined by the balance between these two groups of investors. Greater the share of active investors, higher is the demand elasticity or price sensitivity of gover nment secur ities. Increased volume of government securities may increase concerns of a default by the Government which may affect the risk characteristics of the instrument. This may result in a fall in prices as yields steepen. At the other end of the spectrum, very limited supply of government securities may generate concerns over liquidity. Illiquidity premium can then drive down the prices, although there could be some resistance to the downward bias, if buy and hold investors dominate the market. Thus, very high volumes as well as very low volumes of government securities may result in a fall in prices of government securities. 5.9 Activity in the government securities market can affect overall investment in the economy in two ways. First, it may adversely affect private investment by directly competing for the limited resources. As the interest rate on private bonds is determined by the usual downward sloping demand and upward sloping supply curves, the interest rate in the economy would be determined by the combined demand for and

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

supply of government securities and private bonds. An increase in the supply of government securities in the face of high budget deficits would drive down their prices, leading to a substitution of private bonds with government securities, particularly, by investors whose demand is driven by trading and portfolio management requirements. This phenomenon is often described as crowding out. 5.10 Second, the government securities market can also have a positive influence on private investment by enabling the development of private bond market in two ways: (i) by putting in place a basic financial infrastructure, including laws, institutions, products, services, repo and derivatives markets; and (ii) by playing a role as an informational benchmark. A single private issuer of securities would never be of sufficient size to generate a complete yield curve and his securities would not be riskless because only

the Government has the power to print domestic currency (Herring and Chatusripitak, 2000). Thus, the yield curve of government securities serves as a public good in financial markets (Box V.1). 5.11 One of the key features of development of the government securities market is the evolution of yield curve over a reasonably long period. The upward sloping yield curve, which is considered to be the usual term structure, may reflect either the presence of interest rate risk premium or the so called Hicksian liquidity premiums, or it may simply reflect the markets anticipation about the upward trend in the general level of interest rates over the period. Theoretical analysis confirms that in an efficient market, yield curve will solely depend upon the markets response to collective beliefs about future interest rate movements, i.e., interest rates derived from the prevailing term structure of interest rates are correct

Box V.1 Role of Government Securities Yield Curve as a Public Good

Yield curve, also known as term structure of interest rates, is the representation of zero coupon yields of a series of maturities at a point of time. It is constructed by plotting the yields against the respective maturity periods of benchmark fixed-income securities. The yield curve is a measure of markets expectations of future interest rates, given the current market conditions. Securities issued by the Government are considered risk-free, and as such, their yields are often used as the benchmarks for fixedincome securities with the same maturities. Graphic Representation of a Normal Yield Curve curve has informational value to bond issuers for pricing as well as timing of their issue depending on the expected performance of the economy. Investors can also use the curve in choosing the right tenor of investment. For overseas investors, expected performance of different countries could be compared by looking at the respective yield curves to make investment decisions. Most other interest rates are measured on the basis of the government securities yield curve, viz., credit curve and swap curve. Similarly pricing of other financial instrument uses the government securities yield curve in some form or the other. Thus, the yield curve acts as a kind of public good that is used constantly by participants in the financial system. The efficiency of the yield curve as a public good is enhanced under the following two conditions. First, macroeconomic volatility, especially inflation volatility, must be low so that a nominal yield curve is informative about the real cost of borrowing. Second, the government must issue a sufficient volume of debt. Yield is described as an apparatus which allows abstraction of irrelevant factors and focuses on factors relevant for interest rate risk on portfolios (Krstic and Marinkovic,1997). The fact that the yield curve acts as a public good enjoins upon all participants, in particular the regulators, the responsibility of ensuring that it is free from any undesirable and manipulative influence, as this would lead to a loss in its informational value and result in market inefficiency brought about by incorrect pricing of other financial instruments.

Yield (%)

Years to Maturity

The difference between short and long ends of the yield curve (spread) determines the shape of the curve which is an important indicator of the expected performance of the economy and inflation. Since the government securities yield curve represents the risk-free interest rates, it is used for pricing other instruments of various maturities. The yield

166

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET

forecast of future interest rates. Thus, development of the government securities market is essential for establishing the risk-free benchmarks in financial markets and ensuring their functioning in an efficient manner. Significance of the Government Securities Market 5.12 The need to develop the gover nment securities market emerges from the three roles it seeks to play, i.e., for the financial markets, for the Government and for the central bank (Reddy, 2002). As alluded to earlier, the government securities market serves as the backbone of fixed income markets through the creation of risk-free benchmarks of a sovereign borrower. Ipso facto, it acts as a channel of integration of various segments of the financial market. The government securities market constitutes a key segment of the financial market, offering virtually credit risk-free highly liquid financial instruments, which market participants are more willing to transact and take positions. The willingness of mar ket participants to transact in government securities, in turn, imparts liquidity to these instruments, which benefits all segments of the financial mar ket. Consequently, government securities are used by dealers as a major hedging tool for interest rate risk and as underlying assets and collateral for related markets, such as repo, futures and options (BIS,1999). Furthermore, large borrowings by the Government also provide an impetus to the development of the bond market. 5.13 From the perspective of an issuer, i.e., the Government, a deep and liquid government securities market facilitates its borrowings from the market at reasonable cost. A greater ability of the Government to raise resources from the mar ket at mar ket determined rates of interest allows it to refrain from monetisation of the deficit through central bank funding. It also obviates the need for a captive market for its borrowings. Instead, investor participation is voluntary and based on risk and return perception. A developed government securities market provides flexibility to the manager of public debt to optimise maturity and cost of even a lumpy government borrowing. 5.14 For the central bank, a developed government securities market allows greater application of indirect or market-based instruments of monetary policy such as open market (including repo) operations. A greater recourse to the market by the Government for meeting its funding requirements expands the eligible set of collaterals, thereby enabling the central bank to 167

conduct monetary policy through indirect instruments. The expanding quantum of eligible collaterals has impar ted flexibility to central banks of many developing economies in their conduct of monetary policy, especially in sterilising the capital flows. As a part of reforms, even if the central banks participation in the primary market of government securities is phased out, the stock of government securities in the financial system would continue to enable the central bank to re-balance its portfolio through participation in the secondary market. 5.15 The government securities market, which is often the predominant segment of the overall debt market in many economies, plays a crucial role in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Thus, irrespective of whether the central bank acts as manager of public debt or not, there are three main channels through which government debt structure might influence monetary conditions, viz., quantity of debt, composition of debt and ownership of debt (Box V.2). Principles and Policy Strategy for a Liquid Market 5.16 In the aftermath of financial crises in the late 1990s in many economies, a consensus emerged on the need to develop deep and liquid financial markets, especially government securities markets. Studies suggested that the size is a key determinant of liquidity of the government securities market (McCauley and Remolona, 2000). A critical issue in this regard is trading liquidity, i.e., the ability of the market to execute transactions at short notice, low cost and with little impact on price (Lagana et al., 2006). The extent of liquidity in a market is usually captured by any or all of the four indicators, viz., width (width of the bid-ask spread), depth (the ability to carry out large trading without significant changes in price levels), immediacy (the ability to carry out large trading promptly without significant changes in price levels) and resilience (the ability of prices to quickly return to normal) (Harris, 1990). The Bank for Inter national Settlements (BIS) identified four interrelated general principles for designing deep and liquid markets (Box V.3). 5.17 A five-pronged policy strategy can be pursued to promote liquidity in the government securities market (BIS, op.cit). First, there is a need to pursue a coherent public debt management strategy whereby distribution of government securities across various maturities and frequency of their issuances are modulated appropriately so as to facilitate sufficient supply of instruments for enhancing market liquidity.

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Box V.2 Government Debt Structure and Monetary Conditions

The absolute size of Government borrowings, especially when the financial markets are underdeveloped, often raises concerns about public debt management as there could be recourse to short-term financing from the central bank leading to monetary expansion. However, as the public debt/GDP ratio declines and government securities market develops with introduction of new instruments (like index-linked gilts), new issuing techniques (such as auctions) and improved market infrastructure, practical concerns about debt management impinging on monetary control get reduced. For instance, in the United Kingdom, a steady decline in the debt/GDP ratio and the emergence of a new structure in capital markets, after reforms of the London securities market in 1986, alleviated many of these concerns. The composition of debt in terms of maturity pattern may also influence the conduct of monetary policy. One view is that monetary authorities may keep interest rates low when there is large short-term debt so as to reduce the rollover cost. A contrary view is that they may react more aggressively to inflationary shocks when maturity structure of debt is short so as to minimise the future rollover cost resulting from higher expected inflation and higher future nominal interest rates. The Governments decision to issue short versus long maturity debt, or conventional versus index-linked debt may affect real yields, depending upon the substitutability of the instruments, thereby affecting the interest sensitive sectors of the economy. The central policy concern about the ownership of public debt is related to the composition in terms of holding by banks and non-banks. Several empirical studies, using data mainly from the United States, found that increased debt issuances could lead to increase in bank holdings of debt. New issues of debt taken up by banks act as a substitute for lending to the private sector and, therefore, reduce the supply of bank credit to it. During monetary tightening, however, banks would extend loans to the private sector by running down their holdings of government debt. Thus, banks holding of public debt acts as a buffer. The experience in the United Kingdom was, however, contrary as the available evidence found that debt sales to banks had only a small impact on either money supply growth or bank lending. Source: Bank of England. 1999. Government Debt Structure and Monetary Conditions. Quarterly Bulletin, November.

This can be ensured through large size of issuances, which, by creating of a homogeneous stock with a common matur ity date, enhances liquidity. Alternatively, even where the governments borrowing requirement is fixed, a debt manager can still enlarge the size of issuances of specific securities as demanded by investors at key maturities across the yield curve by reducing the number of original maturities and/or reducing the frequency of issuances. A standard practice to enlarge the issue size, however, is to conduct regular reissuances of identical securities in several consecutive auctions instead of a single auction. Buyback of illiquid or older securities may also enable large sized issuances. 5.18 Second, as taxes increase the transaction costs and hinder market liquidity, there is a need to weigh the potential increase in tax revenue against the potential decline in market liquidity. The liquidity impairing effect of transaction tax, however, could be mitigated by exempting the active mar ket participants. 5.19 Third, there is a need to enhance transparency of issuers, issue schedule and market information. Greater transparency by Governments in furnishing of information plays an important role in improving liquidity of government securities. Adherence to a 168

regular issuance cycle and pre-announcement of issue schedule provide an opportunity to investors to plan their por tfolio management. In this regard, the existence of when issued trading in government securities enables better market acceptability of issuances with availability of time between announcement and actual auction dates. A greater degree of transparency obser ved by mar ket par ticipants also improves mar ket liquidity. Dissemination of market information on a real time basis, without disclosing identity of mar ket participants, narrows bid-ask spreads and improves market liquidity. 5.20 Fourth, standardisation, robust trading rules and safe infrastructure reduce transaction costs. Safety in trading and settlement is a pre-requisite for better liquidity. It is desirable to shorten settlement lags to T+3 or still shorter and adopt delivery-versuspayment (D vP) practices in the gover nment securities market. Standardisation of trading and settlement practices effectively enlarges supply of secur ities by removing fragmentation. It also encourages foreign participation. The permission to dealers to carry short sales also improves market liquidity as they can respond to customers buy orders quickly.

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET

Box V.3 Principles of a Deep and Liquid Government Securities Market

A few general inter-related principles emerge from the experience of the mature markets that can guide the creation of deep and liquid government securities markets in countries after due adjustment to suit particular market situations (BIS, 1999). First, there is a need to maintain a competitive market structure in the government securities market to facilitate efficient price discovery. A government security, like any financial instrument, can be traded through a wide variety of mechanisms like over-the-counter (OTC) markets, organised exchanges and other platforms which cannot be placed in either of these categories. A fundamental strategy is to infuse competition among dealers which would narrow bid-ask spreads and increase liquidity of the market. In the case of exchanges, even when their number is limited, dynamic competition between the leading exchange and other exchanges, and between the OTC market and organised exchanges contribute to market liquidity. Thus, it is necessary to maintain a contestable market where the dominant market participants can be challenged by new entrants if monopolistic or oligopolistic practices develop. Second, the government securities market needs to have a low level of fragmentation offering instruments which have high degree of substitutability. Market liquidity tends to be enhanced when instruments can be substituted one for another since the market for each of them becomes less fragmented. A high degree of substitutability enhances trading supply of securities which facilitates in meeting the transaction demand. However, there is also a need to have some degree of heterogeneity in instruments for catering to specific investor needs. The trade-off between homogeneous product of large volume and some heterogeneity can be resolved by having a system of issuing government bonds at several key maturities from the short end to the long end of the yield curve. Third, liquidity of the government securities market can be improved by lowering transaction costs, which include taxes, cost of sustaining necessary infrastructure and compensation for liquidity provision services. Higher transaction costs widen the gap between the effective price received by sellers of the instrument and that paid by buyers, thereby making it difficult to match sell and buy orders. This leads to low market liquidity. Some transaction costs, however, are inevitable such as those associated with ensuring sound payment and settlement infrastructure and improving overall robustness of the market. Thus, transaction costs need to be minimised as long as this does not reduce the security of the market in question. Fourth, there is a need to ensure a sound, robust and safe market infrastructure comprising (i) payment and settlement systems; (ii) the regulatory and supervisory framework; and (iii) market monitoring and surveillance. This increases the resilience of the government securities mar ket against exter nal shocks and contributes to continuous price discovery, thereby enhancing market liquidity. Finally, there is a need to promote heterogeneity of market par ticipation in ter ms of transaction needs, r isk assessments and investment horizons to promote liquidity in the government securities market. Furthermore, apart from varied domestic investor base, there is also a need to permit foreign participants. Non-residents may have risk appetite different from that of residents, which would prompt them to react differently to new information. However, liberalisation to encourage foreign participation has to be calibrated appropriately after paying due attention to sequential development of domestic markets. Source: BIS. 1999. How Should We Design Deep and Liquid Markets? The Case for Government Securities. Basel, October.

5.21 Finally, the development of related markets such as repo, futures and options also improves market liquidity of the government securities market by enabling participants to undertake hedging, arbitrage operations and speculative transactions. Repo transactions enable market participants to finance long positions and cover short positions. A well structured futures market reduces hedging costs and, thus, makes it easier to undertake cash transactions. An options market provides flexibility for hedging and arbitrage. 5.22 Central banks also impact liquidity of the government securities market through the various roles they perform. First, information on the policy decisions, release of data on various economic indicators and notification of open market operations 169

(OMO) by central banks get incorporated into market prices. Second, as major market participants, central banks conduct of OMO using government securities affects supply of securities in the financial system. Third, central banks influence market liquidity by providing clear ing and settlement ser vices of government securities. II. INTERNATIONAL EXPERIENCE 5.23 The gover nment secur ities mar ket has generally increased in size across countries in tandem with the growing financing requirements of Governments over the years. Notwithstanding the onset of fiscal consolidation processes and the consequent shrinking supply of issuances in the

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primary market in some countries in recent years, public debt managers have honed the development of the government securities market through various measures. Several Governments now raise funds through market-based mechanisms in a transparent and predictable fashion. They have also strived to broaden the investor base for the issuances of government securities. The Governments and central banks have adopted a strategy of jointly working with market participants to promote the development of the secondary market for government securities as also to establish sound clearing and settlement systems to handle transactions in gover nment securities. While an abiding objective of public debt management in various countries has continued to be minimising the cost of government borrowings, a striking feature in the last two decades has been to pursue this objective with a focus particularly on managing risks inherent in the debt portfolio (IMFWorld Bank, 2002). Size and Liquidity of Government Securities Market 5.24 Historically, government securities markets grew with the need to finance government budget deficits. Since the 1970s, government securities markets in the United States (US) and in many other industrial countries underwent significant expansion in terms of size. Large fiscal deficits resulted in increased issuances of treasury bills and bonds. The US government securities market was, historically, the largest. However, as a result of fiscal consolidation in the 1990s, the government bond market shrank sharply in the US. On the other hand, the size of the Japanese Gover nment Bonds (JGBs) mar ket expanded substantially to about 150 per cent of GDP by 2005. In many other countries, including India, the size of the government securities market increased between 2000 and 2005 (Chart V.1). 5.25 Although the size continues to be a key determinant of liquidity of the government securities market, managers of public debt have pursued a strategy of keeping trading liquidity sufficient even in countries where the size of issuances has shrunk in the primary market. Most studies analysing liquidity in the government securities market consider two measures of liquidity, viz., bid-offer or bid-ask spread and trading volume. Lower the bid-ask spread, lower is the transaction cost and hence, higher is the liquidity
2

Chart V.1: Size of Government Securities MarketSelect Countries

Outstanding Amount (Per cent of GDP)

South Korea

Germany

in the market. The bid-ask spread in the government securities market was one of the lowest in Japan, South Korea and Malaysia. In terms of the turnover ratio, the US treasuries market was the most liquid market in 2005, despite a fall in its size. The government securities market in the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) turned out to be one of the least liquid markets in terms of both the turnover ratio and the bid-ask spread (Table 5.1). Management of Public Debt and Role of the Central Bank 5.26 The degree of involvement of central banks in the government bond market varies significantly across countries. At one end are countries such as Japan, the US, Australia, the UK (since 1998) and Republic of Korea, where the finance ministry solely decides the fiscal policy, government debt related issues and the course of operation of the government bond market. The Governments in these countries, however, co-ordinate with central banks, which may be independently pursuing monetary policy and selling/buying securities in the secondary market. 2 At the other end are countries in which central banks, being statutory bodies under the jurisdiction of Ministry of Finance, operate in the government bond market at the behest of their Governments. For instance, in Malaysia, the central bank is one of the

There are central banks which issue their own bonds, adding to the conflict between the monetary and fiscal policy operations and underlining the need for further coordination between the Ministry of Finance and the central bank. These instruments can also fragment the government bond market (Mohanty, 2001).

170

Malaysia

Mexico

Japan

US

Italy

France

UK

China

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Table 5.1: Indicators of Liquidity in Domestic Currency Government Bond Markets Select Countries - 2006
Country 1 Canada Japan US Italy France Germany Australia UK PRC Korea Malaysia Thailand Mexico Generic term for government securities 2 Japanese Government Bonds US treasuries (Notes and Bonds) BTP OAT Bunds Commonwealth Government securities (CGS) Gilts Treasury bonds Korea Treasury Bonds (KTB) Malaysian Government securities (MGS) CETES Turnover ratio 3 4.0 6.0 40.0 10.8 38.5 10.1 9.0 9.0 1.4 2.6 1.9 1.7 2.5 *** *** ** ** ** *** *** Rank based on turnover ratio 4 7 6 1 3 2 4 5 5 12 8 10 11 9 Bid-ask spread 5 5.00 0.58 3.10 6.00 10.00 4.00 4.00 7.60 1.30 2.25 3.00 * * * * * * Rank based on bid-ask spread 6 7 1 5 8 10 6 6 9 2 3 4

**, * and *** indicate data for 1997, 2002 and 2005, respectively. : Not available. Source: Ric Battelino (2004), Tomita (2002), Hattori et al (2001), <www.adb.org>.; <www.asianbondsonline.adb.org>; and McCauley and Remolona (2000).

five statutory bodies under the Ministry of Finance. As a banker to the Government, it advises on the details of government securities issuances and facilitates such issuances through various market infrastructures that it owns and operates. Central banks in some countries assume twin responsibilities of conducting independent monetary policy and managing public debt. For instance, in Thailand, the central bank is responsible for monetary policy and developing the bond market for private and public saving and debt management. Hence, the monetary policy stance of the Bank of Thailand is set keeping in view certain objectives relating to fiscal deficit and future financing needs of the Government. The experiences of these countries indicate that the degree of independence of the central bank may be a necessary but not a sufficient condition for the development of the government bond market. 5.27 The underlying objective of public debt management in various countries, regardless of whether the manager is the central bank or a government agency, continues to be minimisation of the cost of government borrowings. There has, however, been an increasing focus on management of risks in recent years. In par ticular, the debt management framework focuses on the need to under take government borrowings at the lowest possible cost over a medium to long-term timeframe rather than taking recourse to risky debt structures, which may have lower costs in the short run but could 171

be risky and trigger high debt servicing costs in the long run. At the same time, the Governments in some countries, which find the cost of issuing long-term securities at fixed rate very high, are opting for shortterm securities while pursuing a strategy of developing the domestic debt market so as to reduce rollover risk and other market risks in the debt stock over time (IMF-World Bank, 2002). Primary Market Issuance Procedures 5.28 The issuance of government securities in countries, which are in the early stages of market development, is normally undertaken by way of discretionar y non-mar ket placement such as underwriting by a syndicate of financial institutions. This route becomes preferable as free competition is impeded when there are fewer participants. In Korea, prior to the Asian crisis, a part of the bond i s s u e wa s u n d e r w r i t t e n by s o m e f i n a n c i a l institutions and the Bank of Korea. The Bank of Korea, however, stopped underwriting government bonds from June 1998. The Peoples Republic of China had adopted an underwr iting syndicate system in 1991, which was abandoned in 1995 to make way for auctions. In Malaysia, government bonds are issued through auctions but they are also occasionally privately placed with specific financial institutions.

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5.29 In cases where the government is uncertain about the full subscription to the issue and the price it would fetch, it may also ask the central bank of the country to underwrite a part of the fresh issue. In Malaysia, the central bank can par ticipate in government bond auctions and can take up to 10 per cent of the total issue amount in order to obtain secur ities for mar ket operations such as the repurchase agreements. 5.30 In order to improve the government securities market and to widen the investor base, it becomes essential for a country to move over time towards the market mechanism by way of competitive public auctions. Auctions are also used by some countries in combination with tap sales of securities. The Governments in most countries use pre-announced auctions to issue debt. The conventional auctions of government securities follow multiple-price auction system for issuances of conventional securities and uniform price auction system for securities with special features such as inflation-indexed bonds where there is market uncertainty (Box V.4). The US, however, has switched over to uniform price auction format so as to broaden its investor base as bidders tended to be more aggressive in this format due to a reduction in the winners curse. In 2000, the Korean Government moved to a uniform price auction format from multiple price auction system. Chinese treasury bonds are auctioned using the uniform price auction method. On the other hand, Thailand and Malaysia use multiple price auction for issuing government bonds. 5.31 Most Governments rely on underwriting syndicates for borrowings in foreign markets in order to help them price and place securities with foreign investors. This is because borrowings are usually not undertaken in sufficient volume or on a regular enough basis to warrant the use of an auction technique. For instance, smaller countries of the European Monetary Union (EMU) such as Portugal use syndications to launch first tranche of each new bond so as to have more control over the issue price and diversify investor base to facilitate future issuances of government securities by the auction system. 5.32 There are also some countries such as Sweden and the UK, which raise foreign currency funds by issuing first domestic currency debt and then swapping it with foreign currency obligations. This technique has the added benefit of maintaining large issuances in the domestic markets even when domestic borrowing requirements are moderate. Large industrial countries such as the US and Japan issue only local currency denominated securities in 172

their domestic markets and avoid raising funds offshore. Transparency and Efficiency 5.33 Governments in most countries have become more transparent in their auction processes in the domestic market to reduce market uncertainty in the primary market and lower borrowing costs. Preannounced borrowing plans and auction schedules enable the prospective investors to plan in advance their subscriptions to new issuances of government securities by adjusting their portfolios. The rules and regulations governing the primary auctions and the roles and responsibilities of primary dealers are disclosed well in advance to market participants. In Brazil and Poland, the Ministr y of Finance disseminates the basic rules for issuances of government securities to market participants while the details of specific issuances are described in Letters of Issue placed on the website. While the Government in Poland announces the auction dates at the beginning of the year, in Brazil the dates are announced a month in advance. 5.34 The auction processes are also becoming more efficient through automation. The Governments in Ireland, Portugal and Jamaica are already using electronic auction system for issuance of securities, which has considerably reduced the time lag between the close of bidding and announcement of results. Investor Base 5.35 Many countries such as Morocco and South Afr ica have moved progressively away from regulations that mandated investors to hold a prescribed portion of their assets in government securities. While the removal of such captive investor base may have increased interest rates to marketclearing levels in the short run, the ensuing deep and liquid government securities market in the medium to long-term is expected to reduce the debt service costs for the governments in future (IMF-World Bank, 2002). 5.36 Most countries have adopted a system of primary dealers (PDs) for ensuring that auctions are well-bid. PDs also act as a regular source of liquidity in the secondar y mar ket and provide useful information for managers of public debt on market developments and debt management issues. Some governments have felt the need to offer special privileges to PDs for promoting market development, especially at an early stage of development. As PDs continuously give two-way price quotes, they provide

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Box V.4 Auction Pricing Uniform versus Multiple

Pricing in an auction can be on a multiple price basis (also called American auction or discriminatory price auction) or a uniform price basis (also called Dutch auction). In any auction, buyers typically submit bids that specify a quantity and a price (or a yield) at which they wish to purchase the quantity demanded. Once submitted, these bids are ranked from the highest to the lowest price (or from the lowest to the highest yield) and the quantity for sale is awarded to the best bids (i.e., highest prices or lowest yields). Under the uniform price auction, each successful bidder pays the lowest price accepted by the debt manager, i.e., all the successful bidders will pay the same price, irrespective of their actual bid price. Under the multiple price auction, however, each successful bidder will pay the actual price at which he has bid (even if the cut-off price arrived at the auction may be lower). This results in winners curse, whereby successful bidders pay more than the common market value of the security after auctions. Uniform price auctions lead to a better distribution of auction awards. Under this system, the participants tend to bid more aggressively without fear of winners curse. This is because they will get the securities issued at the price quoted by the lowest accepted bid and not the actual that they have bid, unlike in the case of multiple price auctions. Hence, uniform price auctions are expected to enhance market efficiency. An important disadvantage of the uniform price system, however, is that of indiscriminate or irresponsible bidding which may be out of alignment with the market, as bidders are sure to succeed at the most favourable rate. Under multiple or discriminatory price auctions, bidders get differential rates in accordance with their need and assessment of price. This is likely to ensure greater commitment to bidding than in the uniform system. The intensity of demand in the market is also clearly reflected in the bidding pattern. An alternative to these two mechanisms that has been used in Spain since January 1987 is the so-called Spanish auction. It is a hybrid system combining the features of both the uniform-pricing and the discriminatory-pricing mechanisms. Under the Spanish auction system, winning bids that are above the weighted average winning bid will have to pay the same price, viz., the weighted average winning bid, as in a uniform-price auction. Winning bids that are below the weighted average winning bid will have to pay fully, as in a discriminatory-price auction. By modelling auction behaviour, some researchers found that uniform price auctions are unfavourable to the issuer in terms of revenues, whether bidders are risk neutral or risk averse (Wilson, 1979). Some other researchers, however, found that discriminatory auctions yield unique equilibrium with greater expected revenues than the uniform auctions if bidders are risk neutral (Back and Zender, 1993 and Wang and Zender, 2002). Wang and Zender also found that uniform price auctions have a more favourable impact on revenue if the bidders are risk averse and the number of bidders are large in relation to the supply. Uniform price auctions are, however, found to permit self-enforcing collusive bidding strategies (Back and Zender, 1993), particularly under perfect information if buyers are allowed to communicate with one another before the auctions take place (Goswami, Noe and Rebello, 1996). Besides average revenue to the issuer, the choice of auction procedure may also affect the volatility of prices over time. Auction-to-auction volatility was found to increase significantly after the introduction of uniform pricing for select securities by the U.S. Treasury (Malvey, Archibald and Flynn, 1997). In the case of multiple price auctions, experiences indicate that volatility increases with the duration of assets (Sweden) and market uncertainty (Portugal) (Nyorborg, Rydqvist and Sundaresan, 2002 and Gordy, 1999). Exper iments conducted on Spanish auctions show that both uniform and Spanish auctions raise significantly higher revenue than multiple price based auctions as the latter leads to less aggressive bidding than the other two. However, auction-to-auction volatility was higher both in uniform price and Spanish auctions compared to multiple price auctions (Abbink, Brandts and Pezanis-Christou, 2002). Thus, empirical evidence about the superiority of one type of auction over the other seems inconclusive. Cross-country experience shows that although both the methods are used, securities are mostly auctioned using discriminatory auction method.

confidence to those who wish to buy or sell securities. Apart from the provision of liquidity to the market, the competition among PDs has facilitated efficient price discovery in the government bond market. 5.37 In the US, PDs (though not designated as market makers), in existence from 1966, serve as a source of market intelligence to the Federal Reserve. 173

They work with the Federal Reserve to develop a healthier treasury market. In the UK, a system of PDs or Gilt-Edged Market Makers (GEMM) has been in existence since 1986. These act as market makers, par ticipate in gilt auctions held by the Debt Management Office (DMO), give two-way quotes facilitating the secondary market activity in gilts and provide market information to the DMO. Similarly, in

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Malaysia and the Republic of Korea, the system of PDs as market makers was introduced in 1988 and 1999, respectively. In the Peoples Republic of China, there are two segments of the secondary market for government bonds, viz., the inter-bank market and the stock exchange market. A market making system in the inter-bank market has been established since 2004. Certain commercial banks and securities firms have been assigned the task of providing two-way quotes for government bonds. 5.38 Some industrial countries such as Denmark, Japan and New Zealand do not have a system of PDs. The IMF-World Bank survey reported that the abolition of the PD system had significantly reduced the Governments borrowing costs in one particular country. In the case of some developing countries with small government securities market and a few participants, the preference is to let the market participants decide their own market makers. Even in large industrial countries, such as the US, the auction system is not restricted to PDs alone. Other market participants are allowed access as well, provided they have a payment system in place to facilitate settlement of auction obligations. Thus, each country needs to weigh the benefits of the PD system against the costs. The trade-off between the two is likely to depend on the state of market development. 5.39 In addition to banks, institutional investors such as employees provident funds and pension funds have also become important participants in the government bond market in several countries. Gover nment bonds in Malaysia were, in fact, developed to cater to the investment needs of such institutions. In Australia, contractual institutions and even banks were given heavy tax incentives for investing in government bonds in the early phase of development. Institutional investors have normally a long-term horizon and hence, they can be a major source of investment in government (particularly infrastructure related) bonds. However, as a result of their long-term investment horizon, most of these institutions are buy and hold investors, which can impede liquidity in the market. 5.40 Captive mar ket arrangements that are adopted in some countries include mandating certain institutional investors, such as banks or contractual saving institutions, to hold a certain percentage of their assets in government bonds. Such arrangements also prevent investors from trading in government securities. Most developed countries, in the course of their market development, have discontinued any form of mandated investment in government bonds. 174

In OECD countries investments in government bonds are no longer mandated. However, in some developing countries, captive market arrangements continue to exist. For instance, in the Peoples Republic of China, investment funds are subject to a mandatory 20 per cent investment in government bonds. 5.41 Retail investors do not make a significant contribution to trading activity in the market but as long-term investors, they impart stability to the market. Thus, many countries have drawn retail investors to broaden the market. For instance, the Japanese Government launched special Japanese Government Bond (JGB) issues in 2003 and 2006 exclusively for retail investors (floating and fixed rate) with tenor, rate and other features suiting their requirements. This instrument is available with banks and post offices. Brazil also began issuing securities to small investors over the Internet in January 2002. 5.42 Countries have also increasingly relaxed foreign par ticipation in auctions of government securities. Among the developing countries, foreign ownership of government bonds is permitted in Malaysia, the Republic of Korea and Thailand. In the Peoples Republic of China, foreign investors (institutional or individual), barring foreign institutional investors holding the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors license, are not allowed to invest in government bonds. Instrument Development 5.43 The profile of government securities differs across countries in terms of (i) maturity; (ii) ways of fixing coupon and principal payment; (iii) methods of coupon and principal settlement; and (iv) investor orientation. An analysis of evolution of various instruments in the government bond markets shows that normally countries in the nascent stage of development of government bond markets preferred to concentrate exclusively on simple and standardised instruments. Over the years, they moved towards a mix of conventional and, more advanced and complex instruments. The instrument development has become increasingly more sensitive to various risks associated with trading in government bonds. 5.44 Most of the government securities markets in developed countries are characterised by instruments with tenors ranging from short to long-term. For instance, the US treasuries market primarily offers two types of conventional government bonds, viz., treasury notes (maturing between two and 10 years) and bonds (with maturity of 10 years or above) with a semi-annual coupon or interest payment. The 10-year

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treasury note, the most traded US treasury security, is taken as an indicator of the government debt market in the US. The 30-year bond was reintroduced by the US government in 2006. In the UK, conventional government securities or gilts, with tenors of 5, 10 and 30 years, constitute the largest share of liabilities of the UK Government. It reintroduced the issue of its ultra-long 50-year gilt in 2005. The Japanese Central Government issues JGBs with maturity ranging from 2 to 5-year (medium-term), 10-year (long-term), 15-year (floating), 20-year and 30-year fixed bonds (super long-term). 5.45 Generally, medium and long-term bonds issued by various Governments carry a fixed coupon rate. The rate of interest paid on such bonds is fixed at the time of issue. For instance, all medium, long and super-long JGBs, except the 15-year JGBs, are fixed interest rate instruments. The 15-year JGB is a floating rate instrument, the coupon rate of which is aligned to a reference rate plus a constant spread and varies in line with the changes in the reference rate. Value of fixed interest securities falls when the market rate of interest rises. The value of a floating interest bond, however, remains constant even in the face of a rise in the market rate of interest because its coupon payments also rise. This helps in mitigating interest or market risk. Given its less risky nature, the Governments initially issue securities with floating interest rates. As the market develops, however, the Governments move towards fixed interest rate longterm securities. Floating rate instruments have, historically, been used by some of the developed countries to lengthen the maturity of government debt (IMF-World Bank, 2001). 5.46 Inflation-indexed bonds have gained prominence over floating rate instruments as a better hedge against inflation. The UK introduced index linked gilts in 1981, followed by the issue of capital indexed bonds by Australia in 1985. 3 The UK also issued a 50-year ultra-long inflation indexed gilt in 2005. Canada, the US, France, and most recently, Japan have been some of the other countries from the developed world, which have started the issue of inflation-indexed bonds. Japan issues an inflationindexed JGB only with one term, i.e., 10 years. The US issues treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS) and Canada issues real return bonds. In indexlinked bonds, either both coupon and principal payment (as in the UK) or just the principal (as in Japan) are adjusted for changes in inflation. An
3

adjustment for inflation is particularly beneficial in the case of long-term government bonds, as the risk of variation in price levels of such bonds is high. Most countries have been slowly moving towards the international best practice of a three-month indexation lag between the publication of the consumer price index information and the actual indexation of the bond as against an eight-month lag earlier. 5.47 The rationale behind issuing inflation-indexed government bonds by the developed countries is to enable the Governments to reduce borrowing costs by avoiding the need to compensate investors for the inflation uncertainty premium that exists in nominal bonds. Also, if the market for inflation-indexed securities is liquid and reasonably stable, then the spread between nominal and inflation-indexed yields of government debt can serve as a useful indicator of expected inflation for central banks in the conduct of monetary policy. Most countries, however, have found it difficult to develop a liquid secondary market for inflation-indexed government securities, implying that the yields paid by the Governments may include a premium to compensate investors for liquidity. The Governments in some developing countries have also introduced inflation-indexed bonds. Unlike the developed countries, however, the objective of introducing such bonds in the developing countries is to extend the yield curve. 5.48 Under the system of separate trading of registered interest and pr incipal of secur ities (STRIPS), the interest and principal can be traded separately as zero coupon bonds, which help in improving liquidity and widening the investor base of the government securities market. Furthermore, STRIPS can also be reconstituted into a bond. As market participants constantly check the price of stripped bonds with the conventional bonds, strip bonds enable better pricing of traditional coupon bonds. The US began stripping of designated treasury securities in 1985. The UK introduced stripping of conventional fixed coupon in 1997, followed by Japan in 2003 for designated book entry securities. In the US, STRIPS are not issued by the Government directly. They are registered as book entry securities by the Government but are created by financial sector entities such as banks. In the UK, anyone can trade or hold STRIPS but only a market maker (Gilt Edged Market Maker), Debt Management Office (DMO) or Bank of England can strip a strippable gilt or reconstitute it.

The Australian capital indexed bonds, however, have been discontinued since 2003.

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5.49 Most Asian countries such as South Korea did not rely significantly on government bonds prior to the Asian financial crisis. With deterioration of the fiscal position in the post-crisis period, the South Korean Government had to resort to heavy issue of bonds in order to bring the economy back on the path of recovery. This necessitated strengthening of the government bond market infrastructure. Initially, the Korean Gover nment simplified a number of instruments that were earlier traded by converting them all into treasury bonds.4 In the Korean treasury bonds market, bonds with medium-term maturity, viz., three and five years have emerged as the benchmark bonds. Furthermore, Korea has allowed stripping of Korean Treasury Bonds (KTBs). In Thailand, the issuance of domestic government bonds dates back to 1933, though the mar ket remained largely underdeveloped. After the Asian crisis, which highlighted the importance of the bond market, the Government started issuing bonds in large quantum to recapitalise the ailing banking sector in the economy.5 Thai government securities are issued as fixed rate coupon bonds or interest accumulated bonds and have a maturity profile of one to 10 years. However, there is little diversity in the range of instruments available in the government bond market. Consequently, the Bank of Thailand is now in the process of developing inflation indexed bonds and STRIPS (zero coupon bonds). The Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) were, historically, issued to meet the investment needs of employees provident fund. By the 1990s, the Government began to use them as tools for financing part of its budget deficit. MGSs are coupon bearing instruments with a maturity period varying between three and 20 years. Coupon payments are made once in six months. In the Peoples Republic of China, the need to develop the gover nment bond mar ket was ser iously recognised when the overdrawing facility from the Peoples Bank of China was discontinued in 1994. Treasury bonds in the Peoples Republic of China, apart from treasury bills (with less than one year maturity), include fiscal bonds, special purchase bonds, construction bonds and inflation proof bonds (where principal is linked to the price index). These bonds are issued by the Chinese Government. Construction bonds are issued to raise funds for certain projects, while special purchase bonds are issued to pension fund and unemployment insurance
4

funds for employees in the domestic enterprises. The Government of the Republic of China (Taiwan) also introduced STRIPS with a maturity of five years in 2005. Benchmarking and Consolidation 5.50 Several governments have progressively str ived to minimise the fragmentation of the government debt stock by creating a limited number of benchmark securities at key points of the yield curve. They generally use conventional government paper devoid of embedded options for this purpose. Typically, benchmark securities are constructed by issuing the same secur ity in several auctions (reopenings) and by repurchasing, prior to maturity, older issues that are no longer actively traded in the market. In Brazil, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, South Africa, Sweden and the UK, where domestic borrowing requirements are modest or have generally declined over time as a result of fiscal surpluses, debt managers have repurchased securities which are no longer actively traded in order to maximize the size of new debt issues. This has enabled them to minimise the fragmentation of debt and concentrate market liquidity in a small number of securities, thereby ensuring active trading even though the total debt stock may be declining. Denmark, Sweden and the UK also offer market participants a facility to borrow temporarily or obtain by repo, specific securities that are in short supply in the market though at penal rates so that the government securities market is not affected by the pricing distortions in the market. South Korea also has a system of fungible or reopened issues of KTBs, wherein on-the-run bonds issued over a certain period of time are given the same maturity and coupon rate. In the UK, the Debt Management Office (DMO) has recently introduced the conventional gilts with aligned coupon dates in order to facilitate fungibility between coupon STRIPS of various types of gilts. The US also permits such fungibility of coupon STRIPS, irrespective of the underlying US treasury bond but not of principal STRIPS. Consultation with Market Participants 5.51 Many countries have adopted a consultative approach for developing the government securities market by maintaining an active investor relations programme. Under this programme, managers of

The Government converted various types of instruments, viz., Public Funds, Foreign Exchange Stabilisation Fund Bonds (FESFBs) and borrowings from funds like Post Office Deposits to Treasury Bonds. These bonds were issued through the Financial Institutions Development Fund (FIDF).

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public debt meet the major market par ticipants regularly to discuss the funding requirements of the Government, market developments and devise ways to develop the primary market. Such programmes have proved useful, especially for countries managing their public debt under stress. For instance, public debt managers in South Africa operate an investor relations programme and conduct road shows to meet investors, PDs and other market participants for explaining developments in the South African government securities market and explain to them developments in government finances. Secondary Market 5.52 The secondar y mar ket for gover nment securities provides a platform for original investors to trade their holdings before maturity. Traditionally, the trading platform was over-the-counter (OTC) before introduction of trading in stock exchanges in various countries. For instance, in China, trading in treasury bonds was banned till 1980. Subsequently, an OTC trading was initiated. Trading at the Shanghai Stock Exchange commenced in 1992. Banks trade in the inter-bank market, which is largely a repo and buy and hold market. Since 1997, banks in China have been prohibited from trading in stock exchanges to avoid speculation. In Thailand, the Thai Bond Market Association began trading in government bonds in 1998. The central bank of Malaysia operates the centralised data base on Malaysian debt securities, i.e., Bond Information and Dissemination System (BIDS), which facilitates OTC trading of government bonds in Malaysia. 5.53 The public debt managers actively work with market par ticipants and others to improve the secondary market for government securities through a system of intermediaries, a broad investor base and an efficient clearing system. For instance, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Sweden and the U.K. have worked closely with the market to introduce electronic trading in government securities. In Thailand, the Bond Electronic Exchange (BEX), a subsidiary of a stock exchange, began trading in government bonds in 2005. Furthermore, Italy has sought to work with the concerned participants to alleviate distortions caused by the tax treatment of returns on government securities. The debt mangers in Japan, New Zealand,
6

South Africa and the U.K. have also jointly worked with market participants to develop ancillary markets such as futures, repo and STRIPS. These have helped in deepening the government securities market. 5.54 The managers of public debt also work with the relevant stakeholders to devise sound clearing and settlement systems for government securities markets. For instance, Brazil, Japan and Poland introduced real time gross settlement system (RTGS) for government securities transactions. The authorities in Jamaica are also working with market participants to dematerialise government securities within the central depository in order to increase efficiency of secondary market trading. Market practices 5.55 Market practices have also been liberalised in many countries to improve liquidity in the secondary market of government securities. Short Selling 5.56 Shor t selling is now per mitted in many countries. For instance in Australia, a seller is allowed to sell securities to a purchaser without having the right of transfer of the ownership.6 In the US, as part of the legal requirement, the seller needs to confirm a broker the delivery of the shorted securities. In the Peoples Republic of China, short selling of treasury bonds takes place in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges through a repurchase agreement. Short selling is restricted to less than one year and is not allowed at the traditional OTC exchange of treasury bonds. In Malaysia, the right of short selling MGS, but in a covered way, has been given to all interbank participants, which include commercial banks, finance companies, merchant banks and discount houses registered under the Banking and Financial Institutions Act. However, there are restrictions on the type of securities that can be sold short and the extent to which the seller can take a short position. When issued Trading of Government Securities 5.57 Trading of government securities between the time a new issue is announced and the time it is actually issued is generally called when issued (WI)

Short selling involves benefiting from the fall in price of a security. If the price of a security is declining, one can borrow a security in order to sell it, expecting that it would decline further, and then buy it at a lower price and make delivery. The difference between the sale and purchase price of the security is the profit. It involves four steps, viz., an investor borrowing a stock, selling that stock, then 'closing' his position by buying the stock and then returning it back to the lender. If the price falls, he makes a profit, otherwise a loss.

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(or when as and if issued in the US) trading. It works like future trading of securities where long and short positions are allowed prior to the issue date of the securities. The trading of WI is on a yield basis as coupon is determined only after the auction. WI trading facilitates price discovery and helps in improving liquidity in the government bond market. Furthermore, it substantially brings down the risk of underwriting. The restrictions on WI trading were removed by the US Treasury on treasury notes and bonds in the 1970s. Japan, however, considered WI trading as illegal until recently. Following the guidelines laid down by the Japanese Securities Dealers Association (JSDA) regarding the exact definition and legal perspectives of the WI trading of JGBs, WI trading of JGBs took shape in Japan in 2004. In Malaysia, the date of announcement of a primary issue is done on Fully Automated System for Issuing/Tendering (FAST) and the issue is opened for WI. The WI issues are automatically processed through FAST. The date of settlement of WI trades is within two business days after the issue date. Risk Management 5.58 Although government bonds are free from credit risk, they are subject to market or interest rate risk. In the case of foreign currency bonds, they also carry exchange rate risk. Market participants have traditionally hedged market risks by trading in gover nment bond futures. In futures trading, participants can hedge their positions, because they can fix prices at which the trade would settle in future. Development of futures has been instrumental in raising the trading turnover of physical securities in several countries. 5.59 In Australia, development of government bond futures was a part of the reform measures relating to the bond markets adopted in the 1980s. The Australian futures market has become the most active futures market for trading in fixed interest government bonds, particularly of three-year and 10-year maturities. Trading in Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) futures began with a 10-year security in 1985, which has become one of the largest traded futures in the world. The Tokyo Stock Exchange introduced trading in options of JGB futures in 1990. The Republic of Korea introduced government bond futures in 1999. The two types of bond futures currently available in Korea are of 3-year and 5-year maturity. Similarly, Malaysia too has futures contracts on three-year, fiveyear and 10-year MGSs. The derivatives on treasury bonds in the Peoples Republic of China, were earlier 178

introduced in 1993. However, their trading was discontinued in 1995 due to excessive speculation and lack of knowledge about controlling the risks involved in such trading. In September 2005, the Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) declared that it would work towards the introduction of futures and other derivative products in the Chinese securities market. 5.60 The Governments are becoming increasingly aware of the need to manage financial and operational risks of their debt portfolio. The framework used to trade-off expected costs and risks in the debt portfolio differs across countries. Many countries use simple models based on deterministic scenarios, while only a few (Brazil, Denmark, Columbia, New Zealand and Sweden) use stochastic simulations. Several countries also use stress testing as a means to assess the market risk in the debt portfolio and robustness of different issuance strategies. Many of them adopt cash flow modelling for analysing costs and risks for associated debt issuance structures, whereby debtservice costs and their volatility in the medium to longterm are assessed. The rationale for this technique is that the cost of debt is best considered in terms of its impact on the Governments budget, and that cash flow measures are a natural way of quantifying this impact. Risk is typically measured as the potential increase in costs resulting from financial and other shocks. 5.61 Some countries have adopted the assetliability management (ALM) approach in a limited way by analysing the risk characteristics of government financial assets and debt jointly to determine the appropriate structure of debt and assets. The public debt management offices in many countries are addressing management of operational risk by putting in place a formal institutional framework. Middle offices are involved in analysing risk and designing as well as implementing risk control procedures. These debt offices are also trading their debt or taking tactical risk positions. Development of Payment and Settlement System for Government Securities 5.62 Countries are striving for an efficient payment and settlement system of government securities transactions so as to reduce the market risk, default risk and systemic risk. The settlement system has migrated from the physical mode to the dematerialised mode, wherein securities are recorded in electronic book entry form. Several countries are now moving towards electronic trading of government securities.

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Countries have also introduced the DvP mechanism which ensures that delivery occurs if and only if payment occurs and vice versa. This settlement system has replaced designated-time net settlement system whereby only the net payment/receipt amounts were settled at a certain designated time by a RTGS system. These steps have virtually eliminated the settlement risk. 5.63 In many countries, which have adopted electronic transfers of government securities, central banks have been instrumental in providing a clearing and settlement platform for government securities. This is true even in those countries in which the central bank does not operate as the debt manager to the Government. For instance, the Reserve Bank of Australia has adopted the Reserve Bank Information and Transfer System (RITS) from the 1980s. DvP was introduced in the RITS in 1991. All operators in the market are members of the RITS and they use this system for settling transactions in government bonds. RITS has also been linked to the RTGS. Japan introduced DvP for JGBs in 1994 in its payment and settlement system, Bank of Japan NET (BOJ NET). It linked the BOJ NET JGB service and BOJ NET fund transfer system. Japan moved to RTGS in 2001. The securities in the UK are held in demat form and are transferred electronically on the basis of DvP through the settlement system operated by CREST, which is the central securities depository for UK gilts and Irish securities. The Bank of Thailand, which acts as a registrar and depository of Thai government bonds, restructured the Bank of Thailand Automated High Value Transfer Network (BAHTNET), the electronic settlement platform, to facilitate RTGS and DvP in government bonds in 2001. In the Peoples Republic of China, the Government Securities Trading System and Peoples Bank of Chinas large-value payment system were interconnected in 2004, making way for DvP settlements in the inter-bank bond market. 5.64 The Joint Task Force of the Committee of Payment and Settlement System (CPSS) and the Technical Committee of the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) in its report released in 2001 recommended that countries adopt a rolling settlement, wherein the final settlement was not to exceed T+3 days. 7 The repor t urged the countries to ultimately strive towards the same day settlement. Among the developed countries, the settlement cycle for outright sales is T+1 in the US and the UK and T+3 in Japan.
7

5.65 To sum up, international experience of various aspects of government securities markets shows some differences across the countries in terms of structure, instruments, trading and settlement practices, and risk management system. Nevertheless, some common lessons could be drawn. One, the development of the government securities market across the yield curve may entail some shor t-term costs as the governments move away from a purely captive market to a diversified investor base in the medium to long-term. Two, debt issuance needs to be done in a predictable manner using standardised instruments so that the issuers behaviour doesnt disrupt market activity. Three, a demonstrated commitment to develop the government securities market enhances the liquidity and reduces the costs of government borrowings. 5.66 A select cross-country review showed a mixed picture. In several countries, the function of issue and management of public debt no longer rests with central banks. This is more so in countries that have developed debt markets and where government debt issuance is not dominant. In many other countries, central banks continue to be debt managers for the government. However, in almost all countries central banks do play a vital role in developing the infrastr ucture for trading and settlement of government securities in the secondary market. They are regulators of PDs, who act as market markers for government securities. Furthermore, central banks have been instrumental in developing payment and settlement systems for government securities, which have contributed significantly towards an efficient and secure trading in government securities. III. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET IN INDIA POLICY DEVELOPMENTS 5.67 The development of the gover nment securities market in India in the pre-reform period was mainly constrained, like in most developing countries, by almost unlimited automatic monetisation of the Central Government budget deficits, captive investors (predominantly banks and insurance companies) and administered coupon rates on government securities at artificially low levels. As a result, the secondary market for government securities was almost nonexistent. This impinged on the price discover y process, which is crucial for the development of any market. Since interest rates were kept low in order to ensure low cost of Government borrowing, real rates of retur n remained negative for several years.

T represents the trade date and 3 indicates three business days following the trade date.

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Ar tificially low yields on government securities affected the interest rate structure in the system. In order to compensate for low yield on government securities, banks charged higher interest rates to the commercial sector. 5.68 Higher interest rates for the pr ivate commercial sector not only adversely impacted investment activity and economic growth, but also affected the financial health of the banking system as bad debts mounted over time. Low economic growth resulted in lower revenues for the Government, both tax and non-tax, necessitating higher borrowing. This was largely met through the mechanism of ad hoc Treasury Bills issued by the Government to the Reserve Bank and the progressive increase in SLR, as a result of which the government securities market remained dormant. Driven by the compulsions of automatic monetisation, which resulted in expansion of monetar y base, the Reser ve Bank had to progressively raise the cash reserve ratio (CRR) of banks for monetary management. In the face of large government borrowings and the need to restore the

health of the financial system, the Reserve Bank, in consultation with the Government, initiated reforms in the government securities market as a part of financial sector reforms in the early 1990s. These refor ms were broadly aimed at removing the imperfections in the market and creating enabling conditions for its development. 5.69 The Reserve Bank, as a monetary authority, has a special interest in developing the government securities market given its criticality in acting as the transmission channel of monetary policy. Moreover, it is important for the Reserve Bank, as a manager of public debt, to have a well-developed government securities market as it provides flexibility to exercise various options for optimising maturity as well as interest cost to the Government. It also helps in minimising the market impact of large or lumpy government debt operations and ensuring better coordination between monetary policy and debt management policy. A comprehensive legal framework exists, which defines the role of the Reserve Bank in the government securities market (Box V.5).

Box V.5 Reserve Bank and the Government Securities Market Legal Framework
Reserve Banks operations in the government securities market are governed by Sections 20, 21 and 21A of the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934. Under these provisions, the Reser ve Bank is entrusted with the function of management of public debt and issue of new loans of the Union Government and the State Governments. The legal framework for Reserve Banks conduct of open market operations is provided under Section 17(8) of the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934, under which the Reserve Bank is authorised to purchase and sell securities of the Union Government or a State Government of any maturity and the security of a local authority specified by the Central Government on the recommendations of the Central Board of the Reserve Bank. Central Government securities are used by the Reserve Bank for its open market operations and liquidity adjustment facility (LAF). Effective April 3, 2007, the State Development Loans were also permitted as eligible securities for LAF operations. The new Chapter III-D of the Reserve Bank of India (Amendment) Act, 2006 has empowered the Reserve Bank to determine policy relating to interest rate products and regulate the agencies dealing, inter alia, in securities. The Reserve Bank derives its regulatory power over the government securities market from Section 16 of the Securities Contract (Regulation) Act (SCRA), 1956, amended in March 2000, under which the Government has delegated the powers exercisable by it to the Reserve Bank. The Reserve Bank is, thus, authorised to regulate dealings in government securities, money market securities, gold related securities and securities derived from these securities as also ready forward contracts in debt securities. The Government Securities Act, which seeks to replace the Public Debt Act, 1944, was passed in August, 2006. This Act envisages the consolidation and amendment of the law relating to issue and management of government securities by the Reserve Bank. The Act includes the provisions of the erstwhile Public Debt Act relating to issuance of new loans, payment of half-yearly interest, retirement of rupee loans and all matters pertaining to debt certificates and registration of debt holdings. Besides, the new Act gives flexibility for holding government securities in depositories, while at the same time specifically excluding government securities from the purview of the Depositories Act, 1996. The Act enables lien marking and pledging of securities for raising loans against government secur ities, recognises electronic for m of record maintenance, enlarges dematerialisation facility through Bond Ledger Account and liberalises norms relating to nomination and legal representation. The Act also provides the Reserve Bank with substantive powers to design and introduce an instrument of transfer suited to the computer environment. It also allows the Reserve Bank to issue duplicate securities, new securities on conversion, consolidate with other like government securities, subdivide the securities and renew, strip (separately for interest and principal) or reconstitute the securities. The Act, however, is yet to come into force, pending notification of Rules under it.

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5.70 Recognising the impor tance of the government securities market, the Reserve Bank, in consultation with the Government, undertook wide ranging reforms to develop this market. The major objectives of reforms were to (i) grant operational autonomy to the Reserve Bank; (ii) improve institutional infrastructure; (iii) impart liquidity and increase the depth of the mar ket; (iv) improve mar ket microstructure; (v) create an enabling sound legal and regulatory framework; and (vi) increase transparency (Reddy, 2000). Keeping these objectives in view, reforms were undertaken to strengthen the primary and the secondary segments of the government securities market. In the primary segment, measures were taken to raise resources from the market in a cost effective manner, particularly in the light of the transition to market related interest rate structure from the administered interest rate regime. In the secondary segment, measures were initiated to improve liquidity in the market. Measures were also undertaken to improve the trading systems, clearing and settlement infrastr ucture and the r isk management framework. Primary Market 5.71 In the primary market, a price discovery mechanism was activated by introducing an auction system. Efforts were also made to broaden the investor base and promote voluntary subscriptions in government securities. To provide a wider menu, new instruments were introduced from time to time to suit the investor requirements. Issuance Procedures 5.72 In the initial phase of reforms, the focus was on migration from the administered interest rate regime to a mar ket or iented pr ice discover y mechanism. Accordingly, a system of auctions was introduced in 1992 for Central Government securities whereby the amount is notified but the coupon rate is auction determined. Tap issuances, for which the coupon rate was pre-determined but the amount was not notified, were also conducted from time to time up to 2000. 5.73 Since the inception of the auction system, multiple price auction system has been used for dated securities. The uniform price auction format, followed for the issuance of 91-day Treasur y Bills from November 1998, was extended to auctions of Central Government dated securities on a selective basis from 2001. While both methods of pricing are used, multiple price auction is the most frequently used selling 181

technique for issuance of dated securities. The uniform pricing technique is used when there is market uncer tainty. It is also used for issuing new instruments, such as floating rate bonds and bonds with embedded options, as well as bonds with long tenor as in such cases the market does not have a reference rate. 5.74 Auctions of government securities between 1992-93 and 1998-99 were conducted solely on the basis of yield (coupon). In order to consolidate outstanding loans for ensuring sufficient volumes and liquidity in any one issue, price-based auctions were introduced in May 1999, whereby new loans are raised through re-issuances of existing securities with predetermined coupons. This helps the price discovery of a security already in existence in the market. Yieldbased auctions are, thus, employed in respect of new issuances, and price-based auctions in respect of reissue of existing securities. 5.75 Apar t from allotment through auction, a system of non-competitive bidding was introduced in January 2002 to encourage retail investors who do not have sufficient expertise in such bidding. The Reserve Bank also participated on a non-competitive basis in the government securities auctions up to April 1, 2006 to primarily take up some part of the issues in the case they were not fully subscribed. 5.76 Unlike Central Gover nments market borrowings, a predominant share of State Governments market borrowings was conducted by way of tap issues up to 2005-06. The traditional tranche method (under which government securities were issued with a pre-determined coupon and notified amounts for each State) was employed between 199192 and 1997-98. Beginning 1998-99, a combination of the auction method and tap method has been employed. The State Governments could opt for auction route between 5 to 35 per cent of the allocated market borrowings (subsequently raised to 50 per cent). The umbrella tap tranche method was introduced during 2001-02 to avoid the risk of under-subscription of any issue of the State Governments. Under this method, after receiving the concurrence of the State Governments, the Reserve Bank announces the name of the States participating in the tap, the aggregate targeted amount to be raised and the coupon rate which is fixed uniformly for all the States. The targeted amount in respect of individual States is not separately announced. Up to December 2002, the tap was normally kept open till the targeted amount was received for each State. This resulted in keeping the tap open for more than two days in respect of a few

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States. As this procedure subjected the States to reputational risk, which varied with the number of days taken to close the tap, it was decided in January 2003 to close the tap at the end of the second day even if the targeted amount is not mobilised. The names of the States whose issues are not fully subscribed as well as the amount of under-subscription are not disclosed. Investor Base 5.77 The presence of a large and diverse investor base with different perceptions and liquidity requirements reduces the borrowing cost for the Government, dampens market volatility by avoiding unidirectional movements and encourages competition in the market. Prior to introduction of reforms, the investor base for government securities consisted of institutions such as banks, financial institutions, provident funds, insurance companies and pension funds, which are statutorily mandated to

invest in these securities. To meet the growing financing needs of the Government, the SLR for banks was raised over a period of time to reach the peak rate of 38.5 per cent of NDTL in February 1992. With the onset of reforms in the early 1990s and distinct move away from direct instruments of monetary policy to market-based indirect instruments, the SLR for banks was progressively brought down to 25 per cent by October 1997. Banks, on their own volition, however, continued to hold investments in government securities and other approved securities in excess of the stipulated requirement. With the entry of co-operative banks, regional rural banks, mutual funds, especially gilt funds, and non-banking financial companies, the investor base has widened over time (Box V.6). 5.78 Apart from mandatory investments, banks and other financial institutions may also hold government securities as part of their trading portfolio.

Box V.6 Mandated Investments in Government Securities

Banks are the largest investors in government securities. In terms of the SLR provisions of the Banking Regulation Act, 1949, banks are required to maintain a minimum of 25 per cent of their net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) in liquid assets such as cash, gold and unencumbered government securities or other approved securities as Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR). The minimum SLR stipulation for scheduled urban co-operative banks (UCBs) is the same as for scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) from April 1, 2003. However, for non-scheduled UCBs, the minimum SLR requirement is 15 per cent for banks with NDTL of over Rs.25 crore and 10 per cent for the remaining non-scheduled UCBs. The minimum SLR stipulation for regional rural banks (RRBs) is the same as for SCBs. From April 1, 2003, the coverage under the SLR has also been made akin to SCBs. All deposits with sponsor banks, which were earlier considered as part of the SLR, were to be converted into approved securities on maturity in order to be reckoned for the SLR purpose. Recently, the Banking Regulation Amendment Act, 2007 has removed the floor limit of 25 per cent for SLR for scheduled banks. The second largest category of investors in the government securities market is the insurance companies. According to the stipulations of the Insurance Regulation and Development Authority of India (IRDA), all companies carrying out the business of life insurance should invest a minimum of 25 per cent of their controlled funds in government securities. Similarly, companies carrying on general insurance business are required to invest 30 per cent of their total assets in government securities and other guaranteed securities, of which not less than 20 per cent should be in Central Government securities. For pension and general annuity business, the IRDA stipulates that 20 per cent of their assets should be invested in government securities. The non-Government provident funds, superannuation funds and gratuity funds are required by the Central Government from January 24, 2005 to invest 40 per cent of their incremental accretions in Central and State government securities and/or units of gilt funds regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and any other negotiable securities fully and unconditionally guaranteed by the Central/State Governments. The exposure of a trust to any individual gilt fund, however, should not exceed five per cent of its total portfolio at any point of time. Non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) accepting public deposits are required to maintain 15 per cent of such outstanding deposits in liquid assets, of which not less than 10 per cent should be maintained in approved securities, including government securities and government guaranteed bonds. Investment in government securities should be in dematerialised for m, which can be maintained in Constituents Subsidiary General Ledger (CSGL) Account of a SCB/Stock Holding Corporation of India Limited (SHCIL). In order to increase the security and liquidity of their deposits, residuary non-banking companies (RNBCs), are required to invest not less than 95 per cent of their aggregate liability to depositors (ALD) as outstanding on December 31, 2005 and entire incremental deposits over this level in directed investments, which include government securities, rated and listed securities and debt oriented mutual funds. From April 1, 2007, the entire ALD is required to be invested in directed investments only.

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Measures were taken to promote voluntary holding of government securities among other investor categories. For this purpose, specialised institutions were developed. The Discount and Finance House of India (DFHI), set up in April 1988, primarily for developing the money market, was also allowed to participate in the government securities market. In order to develop an efficient institutional infrastructure for an active secondar y market in gover nment securities and public sector bonds, the Securities Trading Corporation of India (STCI) commenced its operations in June 1994. With the introduction of the PD system, both DFHI and STCI later transformed themselves into PDs. Primary Dealer System 5.79 A system of market intermediaries in the form of PDs was made functional in 1996 with the objectives of suppor ting the market borrowing programme of the Government, strengthening the securities market infrastructure and improving the secondary market liquidity in government securities. PDs were also expected to encourage voluntary holding of government securities among investors. The PD system was essentially conceived for institutions whose basic interest is not to hold securities but to participate in primary auctions with the intent to access the securities in the secondary market. PDs are responsible for ensuring the success of primary auctions. To discharge their obligations effectively, PDs have been given privileges in terms of provision of current account and SGL facilities with the Reserve Bank. They also have access to the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) of the Reserve Bank. 5.80 Prior to April 2006, the success of PDs in the primary auctions was ensured through a scheme of underwriting, and a system of bidding commitments and success ratios in the auctions. Underwriting commitments were separately decided prior to the actual auction for primary issuance, with the PDs bidding to underwrite various amounts at various commission rates. The Reserve Bank decided the actual allotment of the underwriting commitment, taking into account various factors such as the likelihood of devolvement and the commission sought. The full notified amount was rarely allotted in underwriting auctions. Since underwriting was a purely voluntary responsibility, the success of primary auctions was sought to be achieved through bidding requirements, which were set at the beginning of the fiscal year for each PD, depending mainly on its capital size. In order to ensure against defensive bidding, the 183

stipulation of a success ratio of 40 per cent of bidding commitments was mandated. The performance of PDs in respect of bidding commitments and success ratios were monitored cumulatively over the year. 5.81 The PD system was revamped to ensure a more dynamic and active participation of PDs in view of the provisions of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act, 2003 whereby the Reserve Bank was prohibited from participating in the primary market effective April 1, 2006. In pursuance of the recommendation of the Technical Group on Central Government Securities Market, the Reserve Bank permitted banks to undertake PD business and also allowed banks having PD subsidiaries to merge them departmentally, subject to certain conditions. The Reserve Bank also issued revised guidelines for PDs to ensure that there is no under-subscription in the auctions. A new incentive structure in the underwriting auctions has been put in place to ensure 100 per cent underwriting and to elicit competitive bidding from PDs. The Reserve Bank has also revised the liquidity support facility to stand alone PDs based on their performance in the primary auctions and the turnover in the secondary market (Box V.7). Stand alone PDs have been permitted to diversify their activities in addition to their core business of government securities, subject to limits, so as to enable them to manage risk efficiently. There are 17 PDs at present, of which 11 are stand alone PDs and six are bank-PDs. 5.82 The presence of PDs in the government securities market has brought about an element of dynamism, both in the primary and the secondary segments. PDs have been actively participating in the auctions of government securities. By providing continuous two-way quotes, PDs act as market makers in the secondary market. The liquidity in the secondary market, in turn, lends support to the success of primary market operations. The PD system also facilitates open market operations of the Reserve Bank, besides taking over the responsibility of market making from the Reserve Bank. 5.83 A system of satellite dealers (SDs), as a second tier of dealer system in trading and distribution, was put in place in December 1996 to broaden the market and to impart momentum to the secondary market activity. SDs, with their good distribution channels, were expected to add depth to secondary market trading and widen the investor base through their retail outlets. The SD system was, however, discontinued from May 31, 2002 as it did not yield the desired results.

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Box V.7 Revised Guidelines for Primary Dealers

The Reserve Bank no longer participates in primary issues of government securities from April 1, 2006, in accordance with the provisions of FRBM Act, 2003. An Internal Technical Group on Central Government Securities Market, which was constituted in December 2004 to examine the implications of the Reserve Banks withdrawal from the primary market on its debt management function and to address the emerging needs, submitted its report in July 2005. In line with the recommendations of the Group and after discussions with the market participants, a revised scheme of underwr iting commitment for PDs was formulated in April 2006, which replaced the earlier requirements of bidding commitment and voluntar y underwriting by PDs. As per the revised scheme, the underwriting commitment is divided into two parts, viz; (i) minimum underwriting commitment (MUC), and (ii) additional competitive underwriting (ACU). The MUC of each PD is computed to ensure that at least 50 per cent of each issue is mandatorily covered by the aggregate amount of MUC of PDs. The MUC is uniform for all PDs, irrespective of their capital or balance sheet size. Given that there are 17 PDs at present, each PD is required to underwrite about 3 per cent of the notified amount of each auction as MUC. The remaining portion of the notified amount is open to competitive underwriting through underwriting auctions. Each PD is required to bid in the ACU for a minimum of 3.0 per cent and not more than 30 per cent of the notified amount. All successful bidders in the ACU get commission as per the auction rules. Besides the changes in underwriting for PDs, the permitted structure of PD business has been expanded to include banks, subject to certain minimum eligibility criteria. Banks which do not have a partly or wholly owned subsidiary, are eligible to apply for the PD license if they fulfil the following criteria: (a) minimum net owned funds (NOF) of Rs.1,000 crore; (b) minimum CRAR of nine per cent; and (c) net NPAs of less than three per cent and a profit making record for the last three years. Indian banks and foreign banks in India which are undertaking PD business through par tly/wholly owned subsidiaries and through group companies, respectively, are also allowed to undertake PD business depar tmentally by merging/taking over PD business from their subsidiaries/group companies, subject to fulfilling the above mentioned criteria. The bank-PDs are subject to all obligations applicable to stand alone PDs and as may be prescribed from time to time. Bank-PDs are required to maintain separate books of accounts for transactions relating to PD business (distinct from the normal banking business) with necessary audit trails. They are required to ensure that, at any point of time, there is a minimum balance of Rs.100 crore of government securities earmarked for PD business. Bank-PDs are also required to adhere to the following prudential norms: No separate capital adequacy is prescribed for PD business, and the capital adequacy requirement for a bank will also apply to its PD business. The government dated securities and Treasury Bills under PD business are reckoned for the SLR purpose. The investment valuation guidelines as applicable to banks with regard to held for trading portfolio are also applicable to the por tfolio of Gover nment dated securities and Treasury Bills earmarked for PD business. The Reserve Banks instructions to PDs are also applicable to bank-PDs, to the extent applicable. Following the revised scheme of underwriting commitment and the discontinuance of bidding commitment, the methodology for calculating limits for PDs under the Reserve Banks Liquidity Support Scheme has also been revised. Of the total liquidity support, 50 per cent of the amount is divided equally among all the stand alone PDs. The remaining half is divided amongst the PDs, based on their performance in the primary and the secondary markets, giving due weightage to their turnover in Treasury Bills and dated government securities. The PD-wise quantum of liquidity support is revised every half-year (April-September and October-March) based on the market performance of PDs in the preceding six months.

Gilt Funds 5.84 In order to promote retail holding in government securities and broaden the investor base, mutual funds, which invest exclusively in government securities, were envisaged. These mutual funds, which are regulated by the Securities Exchange Board of India (SEBI), have been provided liquidity facility by the Reserve Bank since April 1996 for meeting their temporary cash mismatches. Under the scheme, liquidity support to eligible gilt funds is provided by way of repo at the Bank Rate up to a limit of 20 per 184

cent of the outstanding value in government securities for a maximum period of 14 days. At present, there are 15 dedicated gilt funds eligible to draw liquidity support from the Reserve Bank. Foreign Institutional Investors 5.85 In order to encourage foreign participation, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were allowed in January 1997 to set up 100 per cent debt funds to invest in Central and State Government securities, both in the primary and the secondary markets, within the overall

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debt ceilings that are announced from time to time. Equity funds set up by FIIs are allowed to invest in debt up to a maximum of 30 per cent of their total investments. The present ceiling on investment by FIIs (both debt and equity funds) in government securities is US$ 2.6 billion of which US$ 2.0 billion is earmarked for 100 per cent debt funds, while the balance US$ 0.6 billion is for other FIIs. According to the Reserve Banks Mid-term Review of the Annual Policy for the Year 2006-07, FIIs would be permitted to invest in Central and State Government securities by an incremental amount of 5 per cent of total net issuances (issuance minus repayments) in the previous financial year and the existing limit will be enhanced to US $ 3.2 billion by March 31, 2007. Retail Investors 5.86 Since the process of bidding in the auctions requires technical expertise, generally it is the large and informed investors such as banks, PDs, financial institutions, mutual funds and insurance companies that participate in the auctions. As a large section of medium and small investors remained out of the primary market for government securities, a scheme of non-competitive bidding was introduced in January 2002 to enable small and medium investors to participate in the primary auction of government securities without having to quote the yield or price in the bid. Apart from encouraging wider participation and retail holding of government securities, this scheme enables individuals, firms and other midsegment investors, who do not have the expertise to bid competitively in the auctions, to get a fair chance of assured allotments at the rate which emerges in the auction. The scheme provides for allocation up to 5 per cent of the notified amount in the specified auctions of dated securities at weighted average rate of accepted bids. The investor is permitted to make only a single bid per auction and the size of the bid can vary from a minimum of Rs.10,000 to Rs.2 crore. Eligible investors have to come through a bank or PD for auction. In view of their statutory obligations, RRBs, UCBs and NBFCs can also apply under this Scheme within the ceiling of Rs.2 crore. 5.87 To ensure higher retail participation, it is important to improve liquidity in the secondary market. Towards this end, the Reserve Bank has been encouraging PDs to offer two-way quotes to retail investors and become members of the stock exchanges. Screen-based order driven trading in stock exchanges was also introduced in January 2003 to encourage retail participation in the government securities market. 185

Instruments 5.88 Diversification of available instr uments encourages participation of varied investors, as different categories of investors require different kinds of instruments to meet their specific needs. While banks require government securities for their asset liability management in addition to maintaining the prescribed SLR, insurance companies and provident funds require long-term investments to match their liabilities. Prior to the reforms initiated in the early 1990s, most of the government bonds were in the for m of plain vanilla fixed coupon securities. Since 1994, the Reserve Bank has been developing a range of instruments to cater to the diversified requirements and hedging needs of investors. These include zero coupon bonds, capital indexed bonds, floating rate bonds and bonds with call and put options. 5.89 Zero Coupon Bonds (ZCBs) were introduced on January 17, 1994. ZCBs, which do not have regular interest (coupon) payments like traditional bonds, are sold at a discount and redeemed at par on final maturity. The ZCBs were beneficial, both to the Government because of the deferred payment of interest and to the investors because of the lucrative yield and absence of reinvestment risk. There were four issuances of ZCBs between 1994 and 1996. 5.90 Par tly paid stock was introduced on November 14, 1994 whereby payment for the Government stock was made in four equal monthly instalments. Designed for institutions with regular flow of investible resources requir ing regular investment avenues, this instrument attracted good market response and was actively traded. There was, however, only one more issue of partly paid stock on June 24, 1996. 5.91 Floating Rate Bonds (FRBs) were first issued on September 29, 1995 but were discontinued after the first issuance due to lack of market enthusiasm. They were reintroduced on November 21, 2001 on demand from mar ket par ticipants, with some modification in the str ucture. There were 10 issuances of the FRBs till October 9, 2004. Although there was initially an overwhelming market response to these issuances, FRBs were discontinued due to the waning market interest reflected in the partial devolvement in the last two auctions on the Reserve Bank and PDs. Erosion in the market interest for FRBs at that time was, inter alia, due to strong credit pick-up and low secondary market liquidity in FRBs.

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In the secondary market, liquidity in FRBs, is low due to (i) low trading interest of market participants in FRBs as such instruments, by design, are hedging instruments and offer limited scope for trading gains; (ii) no reissuance of FRBs on account of complexities associated with pricing; (iii) preference of commercial banks to place these bonds under held to maturity (HTM) category, reducing the availability of bonds for trading; and (iv) complex pricing method which deterred market par ticipants from under taking outright transactions in FRBs. 5.92 A capital indexed bond (CIB) was issued on December 29, 1997 with a maturity of 5 years. The bond provided for inflation hedging for the principal, while the coupons of the bond were not protected against inflation. The issue of this bond met with lacklustre response, both in the primary and the secondar y markets due to the limited hedging against inflation. Therefore, there were no subsequent issuances. An attempt is being made to reintroduce these bonds and towards this end, a discussion paper was also widely circulated in May 2004. The proposed modified structure of the CIB would be in line with the internationally popular structure, which offers inflation linked returns on both the coupons and principal repayments at maturity. The coupon rate for the bonds would be specified in real terms. This rate would be applied to the inflationadjusted principal to calculate the periodic semiannual coupon payments. The principal repayment at maturity would be the inflation-adjusted principal amount or its original par value, whichever is greater. Thus, there is an in-built insurance that at the time of redemption the principal value would not fall below the par value. The inflation protection for the coupons and the principal repayment on the bond would be provided with respect to the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for all commodities (1993-94=100). 5.93 Government securities with embedded call and put options were introduced in July 2002 for a 10-year maturity using uniform price based auction method. On these securities, the Government has the discretion to exercise the call option, after giving a notice of two months, whereby the securities may be prematurely redeemed at par on or after completion of five years tenure from the date of issuance of securities on any coupon payment date falling thereafter. The holders of the Government stock also have the discretion to exercise put option whereby premature redemption may be made under the same conditions as the call option. There was only one issuance of this instrument. 186

When Issued Market 5.94 A when issued (WI) market facilitates efficient distribution of auctioned stock by stretching the actual distribution period for each issue and allowing the market more time to absorb large issues without disruption. It also facilitates an efficient price discovery process for both the issuer and the investor as it reduces uncertainties surrounding auctions by enabling bidders to gauge the market demand and accordingly price the securities being offered. PDs are also able to manage their auction risk by selling in WI markets even before the auction. As part of the restructuring of the debt issuance framework, guidelines for trading in WI market were issued by the Reserve Bank in May 2006. A limit of 5 per cent (only buy side) of notified amount was prescribed for banks and 10 per cent (both buy and sell) for PDs. WI trading, which commenced in August 2006, was initially permitted in reissued securities. It takes place from the date of announcement of auction till one day prior to allotment of auctioned securities. The revised guidelines extending WI trading to new issuances of Central Government securities on a selective basis were issued in November 2006. WI trading in new issuances will come into effect after the necessary software modifications are carried out in the NDSOM trading platform. Conversion of Recapitalisation Bonds into Tradeable Securities 5.95 The Union Budget, 2006-07 announced the unwinding of the entire outstanding recapitalisation bonds/special securities amounting to Rs.20,809 crore issued to nationalised banks through conversion into tradeable, SLR eligible, Central Government dated securities. Accordingly, recapitalisation bonds/ special securities worth Rs.8,709 crore issued to 19 nationalised banks were converted into marketable securities on February 15, 2007. Apart from being reckoned as an eligible investment for the purpose of SLR, these securities are also eligible for ready forward transactions (repo). This will increase the liquidity in the system. Transparency 5.96 Measures have been taken to increase the transparency in the auction process. Issuance procedures for government securities are detailed in a general notification issued by the Government from time to time. In addition, the features of each issue are also advised to the public in the form of a specific notification issued three to seven days prior to the

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auction of gover nment securities. Results are announced soon after the auction and details of all transactions settled through subsidiary general ledger (SGL) accounts are given on the same day by way of press releases on the Reserve Banks website. Furthermore, in order to provide clear and timely information about the borrowing programme, the Reserve Bank introduced an issuance calendar for auctions in Central Government securities from the financial year beginning April 2002. The State Governments are also encouraged, as announced in the Reserve Banks Annual Policy Statement 2006, to develop an advance indicative open market borrowings calendar. In operational terms, issuance of a calendar has to tackle the trade-off between certainty to the market and flexibility to the issuer in terms of market timing. Secondary Market 5.97 The development of primary market for government securities with diversified investor base also hinges upon the existence of a well-developed secondary market. This, in turn, requires participants with varied liquidity requirements and differing perceptions regarding the future movement of interest rates. A deep and liquid market is efficient and less volatile. Hence, the Reserve Bank has been taking parallel measures to develop the secondary segment of government securities as well. Consolidation of Government Securities 5.98 The Reserve Bank has been pursuing a policy of passive consolidation through reissuance/ reopenings of existing securities since April 1999 in order to benchmark securities across the yield curve and improve fungibility and liquidity of securities. The reissues are, however, limited by the maximum outstanding amount that is perceived as manageable in terms of redemption in the year of maturity. While reissuance has achieved some degree of consolidation, there are still a large number of small sized securities, most of which are not actively traded in the market. The lack of liquidity underscores the need for adequate number of securities with sufficient stock. 5.99 Despite the effor ts taken in passive consolidation of securities, a large proportion of the banks holding of Central Government domestic debt, contracted under the high interest rate regime of the
8

past, is thinly traded. While such securities should have ordinarily commanded a premium over their face value in a scenario of softening of interest rates, banks were often unable to encash them due to limited liquidity. In view of this, a debt buyback scheme was introduced on July 19, 2003 on a purely voluntary basis for banks that were in need of liquidity. Banks were allowed additional deduction for income tax purposes if they declared the premium received as business income and used it for provisioning of their NPAs. To enable them to take benefit of the structure of tax incentives for the premium received under the buyback scheme, banks were exempted from the requirement of appropriating the profit on sale of securities from the held to maturity (HTM) category to capital reserve account, as a one time measure.8 5.100 The Technical Group on Central Government Securities Market recognised the need for a faster way to consolidate stock through the process of active consolidation which would involve, in one form or the other, buying back a large number of small sized illiquid government securities from existing holders and issuing fewer liquid securities in exchange. In this context, the Reserve Bank in its Annual Policy Statement for 2006-07 has proposed to identify and buy illiquid securities from the secondary market. Once a critical amount of these securities is acquired, these would be bought back by the Government to extinguish the stock. The modalities for consolidation are being worked out in consultation with the Government. The Union Budget for 2007-08 has made a provision of Rs.2,500 crore as premium on buyback of secur ities under the proposed active debt consolidation scheme. 5.101 In Februar y 2007, the Reser ve Bank introduced a debt buyback scheme for specified State Development Loans (SDLs) of two State Gover nments, viz., Or issa and Rajasthan. Accordingly, securities of Orissa Government with a face value of Rs.308 crore and those of Rajasthan Government with a face value of around Rs.84 crore were bought back. In the second round of debt buyback, the Orissa Government securities amounting to Rs.86 crore were bought back in March 2007. Sale of Auctioned Stock 5.102 In order to deepen the government securities market and enable the mitigation of price risk, the

In October 2000 banks were advised that profit on sale of investments in HTM category should be first taken to the profit and loss account and thereafter be appropriated to the capital reserve account.

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Reserve Bank permitted from October 2000, the sale of government securities allotted to successful bidders in primary issues on the day of allotment to entities having SGL account. These are settled under the Reserve Banks DvP system, thereby removing restriction on the period between sale and purchase. This facility was extended in respect of sale to constituent subsidiary general ledger (CSGL) account holders and sale between CSGL account holders, effective May 11, 2005. Valuation of Government Securities 5.103 Marking to market of government securities is important for the development of the secondary segment of government securities market. Valuation of securities at market prices requires the existence of a yield curve. The Reserve Bank was providing the information on yields on government securities across various maturities for the purpose of valuation of unquoted government securities. With effect from September 2000, the Reserve Bank has moved away from this practice and such valuation at present is done on the basis of the prices/yield to maturity (YTM) rates put out by the Fixed Income Money Market Derivatives Association of India (FIMMDA)/Primary Dealers Association of India (PDAI) at periodic intervals. Short Selling in Government Securities 5.104 In the absence of a facility of short selling in gover nment secur ities, par ticipants generally refrained from taking positions in a falling market, which resulted in drying up of volumes. Trading activity, which normally peaked during the bullish times, petered out when the yields started moving up. To keep the markets liquid and active even during the bearish times, and more importantly, to give the participants a tool to better manage their interest rate risk, intra-day short selling in government securities was permitted among eligible par ticipants, viz., scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) and PDs in February 2006 on the basis of the recommendations of the Technical Group on the Central Government Securities Market. The introduction of short selling also paved the way for when issued trading in August 2006. As part of the phased introduction of short sale, the short positions have been permitted to be carried beyond intra-day for a period of five trading days, effective January 31, 2007. As this arrangement results in carrying short positions across settlement cycles, participants are allowed to deliver a shorted security by borrowing it from the repo market. 188

Information Dissemination 5.105 Infor mation asymmetr y impedes the development of secondary market since participants make pricing decisions based on the available data. Transparency and information dissemination with the minimum time lag are, therefore, very crucial for development of the mar ket. Making use of technological resources, efforts have been made to disseminate trade information on a real time basis to a wider market. The price information on the trades is made accessible through the Reserve Banks website. Market Infrastructure 5.106 As par t of financial sector reforms, the Reser ve Bank has taken several initiatives for developing the technological infrastructure for the efficient functioning of the government securities market. These measures were accompanied by an assessment of the risk management systems under the new institutional arrangements. Trading Infrastructure 5.107 A well-developed gover nment securities market requires a system of transparent pricing and allotment mechanism which reduces transaction cost and improves market efficiency. In June 1994, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) introduced a transparent fully automated screen-based trading system known as National Exchange for Automated Trading (NEAT) in the wholesale debt market (WDM) segment for facilitating trading in various debt instruments, including government securities. 5.108 Although the WDM segment of the National Stock Exchange has the facility to match trades, it has been used mostly for reporting of negotiated deals intermediated by the brokers registered with the exchange. The settlement of these deals is, however, done between the counter parties and without the involvement of the stock exchange. Participants in the secondary market are limited to banks, financial institutions, mutual funds, FIIs and Trusts. 5.109 In order to facilitate easier access, wider reach and active participation in the government securities market, a facility of retail trading in stock exchanges, viz., National Stock Exchange (NSE), Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and Over the Counter Exchange of India (OTCEI) was provided from January 16, 2003. Primary (urban) co-operative banks and FIs were permitted to transact in dated Central Government securities in dematerialised form on automated order driven systems of stock exchanges

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from March 13, 2003 and from June 1, 2003, respectively. For this purpose, banks and financial institutions have been permitted to open demat accounts with depository participants in addition to their SGL accounts. The minimum order size has been kept low at Rs.1,000 (face value) to take care of the interests of the small investors. Trades in government securities are cleared by the respective clearing cor porations of the exchanges. The settlement procedure through settlement banks and demat accounts with depository participants (institutions permitted by the SEBI to open demat accounts) is akin to any other transaction on the exchange. However, despite the presence of technological infrastructure, trading through stock exchanges has not shown marked improvement. 5.110 The Reserve Bank introduced the Negotiated Dealing System (NDS) in February 2002 with the objectives of (a) ushering in an automated electronic reporting and settlement process; (b) facilitating online electronic bidding in primar y auctions; and (c) providing an electronic dealing platform for trading in government securities in the secondary market. The NDS, which is available on a secure network, i.e., Indian Financial Network (INFINET) to a closed user group, facilitates straight-through settlement of secondary market transactions, thereby enhancing transparency and transactional efficiency. The NDS has greatly enhanced operational efficiency of the market by automating the flow of traded data into the settlement system. It has also facilitated dissemination of price information almost on a real time basis to market participants, enabling them to execute trading decision more effectively. The NDS has, however, gained popularity more as a reporting platform for the trade concluded bilaterally in OTC markets than as a trading platform as originally envisaged. 5.111 In order to provide the NDS members with a more efficient trading platform, the NDS-OM (NDSOrder Matching) trading module was operationalised in August 2005 on the basis of the recommendations of the Working Group on Screen Based Trading in Government Securities (Chairman: Shri.R.H.Patil). The NDS-OM is an anonymous order matching system which allows straight-through processing (STP). It is purely order-driven with all the orders matched on a strict price/time priority basis. The executed trades flow straight to the Clear ing Corporation of India Ltd. (CCIL) in a ready-forsettlement stage. The CCIL is the central counterparty to each trade undertaken on the system. Participants have the option of using the NDS or the NDS-OM for 189

their trading operations. The settlement of both types of transactions is, however, integrated. In the first phase of operationalisation of NDS-OM, only Reserve Bank regulated entities, i.e., banks, PDs and FIs were permitted to access the system. Subsequently, insurance companies were also allowed access. Those insurance companies, which did not have a current account with the Reserve Bank, were allowed to open a special current account with it. Consequent to the announcement made in the Union Budget for 2006-07, access to NDS-OM was further extended to all qualified mutual funds, provident funds and pension funds. While large participants in these categories can have a direct access to NDS-OM system by obtaining the direct membership, small participants are envisaged to access the system through their principal member (CSGL route). The NDS-OM system has been well received by market par ticipants as it enhances operational and transactional efficiencies. This system, which accounted for over 60 per cent of the total traded volume in government securities, has provided an efficient price discovery mechanism, reducing the bid-ask spreads and intra-day price volatility. Settlement Practice and Infrastructure 5.112 A fast, transparent and efficient clearing system constitutes the basic foundation of a welldeveloped secondar y mar ket in gover nment securities. Dematerialised holding of government securities in the form of Subsidiary General Ledger (SGL) was introduced to enable holding of securities in an electronic book entry form by participants. The book entry form enhances the transactional efficiency and mitigates risks associated with the physical movement of securities by obviating the movement of physical secur ities dur ing transfers. A dematerialisation drive has also been undertaken to convert all physical holdings of government securities into dematerialised form. Consequently, at present, about 99 per cent of government securities holdings (in value terms) are held in dematerialised form. 5.113 The Delivery versus Payments (DvP) system in India was operationalised in 1995 to synchronise transfer of securities with cash payments, thereby eliminating settlement risk in securities transactions. The Reserve Bank operates a government securities settlement system for financial entities with SGL accounts in its Public Debt Offices through DvP System. Under the current system, banks, financial institutions, insurance companies and PDs are allowed to hold SGL accounts for securities and

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current accounts for cash. For these participants, the settlement is done through the DvP system. Other par ticipants such as corporates, mutual funds, provident funds, co-operative banks and societies, and individuals, who are not allowed to hold direct SGL accounts with the Reserve Bank, can operate via the constituents SGL account maintained by SGL account holders. Detailed guidelines have been issued to ensure that entities providing custodial services for their constituents employ appropriate accounting practices and safeguards. 5.114 The DvP system, which was initially on the basis of gross settlement for both securities and funds (DvPI method), shifted to DvP-II method where settlement for securities was on a gross basis but settlement of funds was on a net basis. Both funds and securities are settled on a net basis (DvP-III method) since 2004. Each security is deliverable/ receivable on a net basis for a particular settlement cycle and securities are netted separately for SGL and CSGL transactions. Netting of funds is done on a multilateral basis. These changes facilitated the rollover of repurchase transactions and also sale of securities purchased during the same settlement cycle without waiting for delivery. The DvP III has helped participants to manage their interest rate risk more efficiently by enabling them to cover their positions on the day of allotment in the auction. Net settlement of funds has also enhanced trading activity by reducing the fund requirement (gross to net) during the settlement cycle. 5.115 The CCIL was established on February 15, 2002 to act as the clearing house and as a central counterparty through novation for transactions in government securities. The CCIL has 154 members participating in the securities settlement segment. The establishment of CCIL has ensured guaranteed settlement of trades in government securities, thereby impar ting considerable stability to the markets. Through the multilateral netting arrangement, this mechanism has reduced funding requirements from gross to net basis, thereby reducing liquidity risk and greatly mitigating counterparty credit risk. The CCIL has been equipped with the risk management system to limit the settlement risk (Box V.8). Operational guidelines were issued to the CCIL in April 2003 for a limited pur pose government securities lending scheme. Accordingly, the CCIL has been permitted to enter into an arrangement with any of its members for borrowing government securities for the purpose of handling securities shortage in settlement. All transactions in government securities concluded or 190

reported on NDS as well as transactions on the NDSOM have to be necessarily settled through the CCIL. The net obligations of members are arrived at by the CCIL for both funds and securities and then sent to the Reserve Bank for settlement under the DvP mechanism. 5.116 As a step towards introducing the national settlement system (NSS) with the aim of settling centrally the clearing positions of various clearing houses, the integration of the integrated accounting system (IAS) with the real time gross settlement system (RTGS) was initiated in August, 2006. This facilitates settlement of various CCIL-operated clearings (inter-bank government securities, interbank foreign exchange, CBLO and National Financial Switch) through multilateral net settlement batch (MNSB) mode in the RTGS in Mumbai. On stabilisation of MNSB in Mumbai, settlements at other centres under the NSS would be taken up in a phased manner. Settlement cycle 5.117 The government securities market earlier followed both T+0 and T+1 settlement systems. In order to provide participants with more processing time and facilitate better funds and risk management, the settlement cycle for secondary market government securities transactions has been standardised to T+1, effective May 11, 2005. Risk Management 5.118 Marking to market of securities is essential to establish the current value and recognise profits or losses in the books of account. In terms of the Reserve Banks guidelines, the investment portfolio of banks is required to be classified into three categories, viz., held for trading (HFT), available for sale (AFS) and held to matur ity (HTM). Securities classified under HFT are to be marked to market on a monthly basis, if not more frequently. Securities in the AFS category are to be marked to m a r ke t a t ye a r - e n d , i f n o t m o r e f r e q u e n t l y. Securities in the HTM category can be carried at book value, subject to certain conditions. Banks are not allowed to book the mark to market gains. 5.119 As government securities are exposed to market risks, the Reserve Bank has been prescribing norms to ensure that banks and other entities regulated by it maintain adequate cover against such risks. As an initial step towards prescribing capital charge for market risk, the Reser ve Bank had

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Box V.8 Risk Management Practices adopted by the CCIL

The CCIL is responsible for the settlement of trades in the government securities market. It also acts as the central counterparty to the trades done by its members, thereby absorbing the risk of its members from failed trades arising out of defaults by their counterparties. As settlement in the government securities market is based on DvP, the risk from a default is the market risk, i.e., the change in price of the concerned security. The CCIL seeks to cover these risks through its margining process. It collects initial margin and mark to market margin from the members in respect of their outstanding trades. Both these margins are computed trade-wise and then aggregated member-wise. Initial margin is collected to cover the likely risk from future adverse movements in prices of the concerned securities. It is computed based on security specific (Initial) margin factor. The margin factor for a security is approximately equal to the 3-day Value at Risk for the security. For offsetting trades in a security for a settlement date, netting is allowed for arriving at the initial margin. Mark to Market (MTM) margin is collected to cover the notional loss (i.e., the difference between the current market price and the contract price of the security covered by the trade) already incurred by a member. MTM margin imposed on a day is payable on the next business day, barring certain exceptions. Additional Initial Margin: Sometimes trades are conducted at prices which are different from the prevailing prices in the market. This increases risk to the system as the liability in the case of a default is guaranteed. A provision is being created to subject such trades to additional initial margin (AIM) for an amount equal to the difference between the trade consideration and the value of the trade at such MTM price. The margin would be an intra-day margin and released at the end of the day, after such trades are subjected to the MTM margining. In addition to these margins, the CCIL may also collect volatility margin and concentration margin. Volatility Margin: To take care of sudden volatility in the market, CCIL may also impose a volatility margin. Volatility margins would be imposed after advising the members of such imposition through notifications to be sent through CCIL report server and CCIL website. Volatility margin rates would either be a percentage of existing margin factors or at rates specified for the individual securities and would be calculated in the same way as initial margin. Once imposed, all outstanding trades will be subjected to volatility margin. Volatility margin can also be withdrawn anytime during the day. Concentration Margin: This constitutes the margin obligation required to be fulfilled by a member in relation to its outstanding exposure to a security or to a group of securities, for a settlement date or for a number of settlement dates, beyond pre-determined limit(s). The CCIL has not yet set any such limits. Members are required to keep balances in the Settlement Guarantee Fund (SGF) in such a manner that the same is enough to cover the requirements for both initial margin and MTM margin for the trades done by such members. In case of any shortfall, CCIL makes margin call and the concerned member is required to meet the shortfall before the specified period of the next working day. Members' contribution to the SGF is in the form of eligible Central Government securities/Treasury Bills and cash, with the cash component being not less than 10 per cent of the total margin requirement at any point of time. Based on the liquidity and tenor, the CCIL specifies the securities which can be deposited towards SGF by any member. SGF contribution in the form of securities is subject to haircut, which is the margin kept aside to take care of any loss arising out of any adverse movement in the market price during the period between two re-valuations. The SGF in the form of securities is revalued daily to ensure that the market value of such securities does not fall below the margin requirements. Liquidity Risk: To mitigate liquidity risk and ensure uninterrupted settlement, the CCIL is required to arrange for liquidity, both in terms of funds and securities. The CCIL has arranged for lines of credit from banks to enable it to meet any reasonable shortfall of funds arising out of a default by a member either in its securities segment or foreign exchange segment. Members' contributions to the security segment of the SGF are mainly in the form of securities. By specifying the list of securities acceptable for contribution to the SGF, the CCIL ensures that the most liquid securities in which a significant portion of the trades are settled are likely to be available in the SGF. For requirements of other securities, the CCIL has put in place a limited purpose security borrowing arrangement with two major market participants. Default Handling: In case a member defaults in his securities pay-in obligation, the CCIL meets the shortfall by borrowing securities under the Securities Line of Credit or by using securities available either in its SGF or as proprietary holding. In case it is not possible to meet the shortfall due to non-availability of the security, the CCIL allocates the amount of shortage not handled using its predefined algorithm. In case a member defaults in funds pay-in obligation, the CCIL meets the shortage through its lines of credit. The margin contributed by the defaulter member is also available as recourse. The CCIL also withholds payouts due to the defaulter member as a part of this process and disposes this if the defaulter member does not replenish the shortage within the pre-specified time of the next day. Source: Clearing Corporation of India Limited. 2006. Fact Book.

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stipulated that banks assign a risk-weight of 2.5 per cent to cover market risk in respect of government securities from the year ended March 2001. However, subsequently banks were required to charge capital for market risk in terms of Basel norms. Accordingly, banks were required to maintain capital charge for market risk for the HFT category from March 2005 and for AFS category from March 2006. They are required to measure the general market risk charge for interest rate risk by calculating the price sensitivity (modified duration) of each position separately. The capital requirements are to be maintained on a continuous basis and banks are required to maintain risk management systems to monitor and control intra-day exposures to market risks. 5.120 The Reser ve Bank imposed cer tain restrictions on the operation of co-operative banks with effect from June 7, 2003, in the light of fraudulent transactions in government securities in physical form by a few co-operative banks with the help of some broker entities. Accordingly, participants were required to necessarily hold their investments in government securities portfolio in either SGL (with the Reserve Bank) or a gilt account (with State co-operative bank/ PD/FIs/sponsor banks in case of RRBs) or SHCIL or in a demater ialised account with depositor y participants (DPs) of National Security Depository Limited (NSDL)/Central Depository Services (India) Limited (CDSL), depending on the concer ned institution. Each entity was restricted to opening only one gilt account or dematerialised account. In case the gilt accounts are opened with a SCB or state cooperative bank, the account holder is required to open a designated fund account (for all gilt account related transactions) with the same bank. Furthermore, all Reserve Bank regulated entities have been prohibited from conducting transactions in securities in physical form. Government Securities Market and Debt Management Policy 5.121 An abiding responsibility of the Reserve Bank as a debt manager has been to minimise the cost of public debt keeping in view the rollover risk within the overall objectives of monetary policy, particularly in the light of the transition to a system of market-determined cost of Government borrowings from the 1990s.

5.122 The manoeuvrability of the Reserve Bank as the debt manager for ensur ing interest rates conducive to promoting economic growth on the one hand, and financial stability on the other, was constrained by the high volume of Government domestic debt. As the large stock of Government debt created uncertainties in financial markets, fuelling investor expectations of higher interest rates, the Reserve Bank had to place bond issuances at the shorter end of the market during the first eight years of the 1990s. Thus, taking into consideration the market perception and the transition from preannounced coupon to market related rates as well as the need to widen the investor base, the maximum maturity was reduced from 20 years to 10 years and the minimum maturity from five years to two years. As a result, the share of short dated securities (i.e., under five years) as a proportion of total outstanding dated securities rose sharply between March 1991 and March 1998, while that of securities with a tenor above 10 years declined. 5.123 The Reserve Bank also pursued a strategy of funding operations of 91-day and 364-day auction Treasury Bills between 1993-94 and 1997-98, which involved the conversion of these Treasury Bills into dated securities at the option of holders. 9 The lengthening of maturity of Treasury Bills through such conversion smoothened the cash flow of the Government. The markets holding of a short-term security was thus funded into a longer maturity. This obviated the problems inherent in sharp liquidity increases in the system, thereby reducing volatility in the short-term rates. 5.124 The pursuit of the objective of minimising cost by shortening the maturity of government securities during the first half of the 1990s inevitably led to a sharp bunching of securities for redemption and frequent rollover of short-term issues. This posed problems for the Reserve Bank in the management of liquidity. In order to avoid such bunching of future repayments, the Reserve Bank adopted a conscious strategy from 1998 to elongate the maturity profile of Government debt through issuances of long-term papers to reduce refinancing risk. In doing so, the Reser ve Bank also had to carefully weigh considerations of minimising the cost of borrowings against considerations of elongating the maturity profile which could invariably involve increasing

This was a departure from the funding operations in earlier years wherein Reserve Bank's holding of ad hoc Treasury Bills was funded into special securities without maturity.

192

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interest costs. However, soft interest rate conditions from the late 1990s to 2004-05 due to benign inflation environment helped the Reserve Bank in lowering the yield on government securities, while simultaneously increasing the tenor progressively up to 30 years, which had ranged up to 10 years in most of the 1990s. This reduced the potential redemption pressure and the refinancing risk and also helped in developing the yield curve for longer tenors. Government Securities Market and Monetary Policy 5.125 The measures undertaken by the Reserve Bank to develop the primary and secondary segment of government securities market has facilitated the changes in the monetary policy framework to reflect the increased market orientation (Annex V.1). The emphasis progressively shifted from the use of direct instruments of monetary control such as reserve requirements and credit controls to indirect instruments such as open market operations (OMOs). 5.126 A pre-requisite for the development of OMO as an active tool of monetary policy was a welldeveloped market for government securities which, in turn, hinged upon the existence of a price discovery mechanism. The first step in this direction was the introduction of an auction system in 1992, which signalled the transition to a market-related interest rate system. The abolition of automatic monetisation through ad hoc Treasury Bills and the introduction of Ways and Means Advances (WMA) system from April 1997 provided operational autonomy and greater market orientation for government securities. Although the Reserve Bank continued to absorb government securities through devolvement/private placements, these were essentially market driven, and were conducted with a view to offloading them in the market when the liquidity conditions stabilise. Thus, the strategy of combining private placement/devolvement with outright OMO was employed to neutralise the impact of temporary tightness in liquidity conditions on the interest cost of government debt. This was in contrast to the de facto privately fixed private placement in the era of the ad hoc Treasury Bills, which virtually left little manoeuvrability for the conduct of monetary policy. 5.127 The stock of government securities in the Reserve Banks portfolio built over the years and the activation of the secondary market for government securities enabled the Reserve Bank to use OMO effectively for sterilising the impact of large capital 193

inflows. The Reserve Bank also converted its stock of non-marketable securities created out of funding of ad hoc and tap Treasury Bills into marketable securities and effected OMO sales for absorbing strong capital flows witnessed in 1997-98 and during 2002-04. Continued recourse to open mar ket operations for sterilisation, however, depleted the Reserve Banks stock of government securities. The market stabilisation scheme (MSS) was, therefore, introduced in April 2004 for mopping up liquidity of a more enduring nature. Under this scheme, Central Government securities and Treasury Bills are issued in addition to the normal market borrowing programme and the resources raised are held by the Government in a separate identifiable cash account maintained and operated by the Reserve Bank, which is to be appropriated only for the purpose of redemption and/ or buyback of issuances under the MSS. 5.128 To sum up, in the initial phase of reforms, the price discover y mechanism in the government securities market was accorded importance with transition from the administered interest rate system to the auction system. During the mid-1990s, the focus was on scaling down of mandatory investment and promoting voluntary investment by the traditional investors. This period also witnessed establishment of dedicated market intermediaries in the form of PDs. Several innovative products were introduced to provide a wide menu of instruments to the investors. The investor base has widened since the late 1990s to include corporate/mid segment and retail investors. The measures taken to develop the secondary market include the development of new benchmark government securities by consolidating securities in key maturities; enhancing fungibility and liquidity through re-issuances of existing loans; and improving market efficiency through introduction of short selling. The Reserve Bank has taken measures in recent years to enhance transparency through announcement of a calendar for conducting auctions. Appropriate trading and settlement infrastructure has been put in place to ensure risk free settlement and market liquidity. To meet the debt management objectives of minimising cost of debt and roll-over risks, the Reserve Bank has followed the strategy of elongating maturity during benign interest rate conditions. IV. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET IN INDIA: ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT 5.129 An assessment of the impact of the measures taken to develop the government securities market since the early 1990s reveals significant growth of

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 5.2: Government Securities Market in India*

Indicator 1 Outstanding stock (end-March) (Rs. crore) Outstanding stock as ratio of GDP (end-March) (Per cent) Turnover / GDP (Per cent) Average maturity of the securities issued during the year (Years) Weighted average cost of the securities issued during the year (Per cent) PD share in government securities market # (Per cent) a) Primary market b) Secondary market turnover * : Central Government securities. 51.47 23.91 52.88 28.24 40.36 31.13 1991-92 2 76,908 11.8 11.78 1995-96 3 1,69,526 14.3 5.70 13.75 2000-01 4 4,53,668 21.6 49.7 10.6 10.95 2003-04 5 8,24,612 29.8 115.2 14.94 5.71 2004-05 6 9,29,612 29.7 56.7 14.13 6.11 2005-06 7 10,32,296 28.9 37.9 16.89 7.34

# : Pertain to Central and State Governments.

the market in terms of both size and liquidity. The outstanding stock of government securities has increased significantly, both in absolute terms and in relation to GDP, in tandem with the growing financing requirement of the Government. Significant changes in the primary market have also been observed in terms of wider participation and better price discovery. The system of PDs has emerged as an important element, both in the primary and secondary segments of the government securities market (Table 5.2). Magnitude of Government Securities 5.130 With the phasing out of ad hoc Treasury Bills and earmarking of small saving collections for the States, the Central Government has been financing its deficit largely through mar ket borrowings. Accordingly, the share of market borrowings in financing Central Governments gross fiscal deficit increased to around 70 per cent in 2005-06 from around 18 per cent in 1990-91. The share of market borrowings in financing the gross fiscal deficit of the State Governments, however, showed a modest increase on account of availability of other sources of financing such as small savings. As a result, market borrowings financed around 46 per cent of combined gross fiscal deficit of the Centre and States in 200506 as compared with around 20 per cent in 1990-91. Accordingly, the outstanding stock of both the Central and State Governments securities has increased significantly over the years. Implementation of the MSS from 2004-05 has also contributed to the growth of outstanding government securities in recent years (Table 5.3). 194

Elongation of Maturity Profile 5.131 As part of prudent debt management strategy, the Reserve Bank has elongated the maturity profile of the outstanding stock of government securities by issuing securities of longer maturity. The weighted average maturity of primary issuances of the Central Government securities increased to 14-15 years during the first half of the current decade as compared with 6.6 years in 1997-98. Mirroring this pattern, the weighted average maturity of outstanding stock of government securities increased to 9.9 years at end-March 2006 from 6.5 years at end-March 1998 (Chart V.2). Table 5.3: Outstanding Stock of Central and State Government Securities
(Rs. crore) End-March 1 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Centre 2 70,377 76,909 81,693 1,10,581 1,37,515 1,69,526 1,92,893 2,49,024 3,11,605 3,81,881 4,53,668 5,36,324 6,74,203 8,24,612 9,29,612 States 3 15,644 18,971 23,646 26,087 31,208 37,931 43,582 50,828 61,531 73,885 86,765 1,04,026 1,33,090 1,79,465 2,35,172 Combined 4 86,021 95,879 1,05,339 1,36,668 1,68,723 2,07,457 2,36,475 2,99,852 3,73,136 4,55,766 5,40,433 6,40,350 8,07,293 10,04,077 11,64,784

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET

Chart V.2: Weighted Average Maturity of Central Government Securities

Table 5.4: Maturity Profile of Central Government Securities Issued during the Year
(Per cent of total) Year 1 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 Under 5 years 2 18 18 0 6 2 0 5 4 0 5-10 years 3 82 68 35 41 24 36 18 19 26 over 10 years 4 0 14 65 53 74 64 77 77 74

Years

Yields on Government Securities in the Primary Market 5.134 The process of maturity elongation was facilitated by the benign interest rate regime which prevailed during the first half of the current decade. This brought down the cost of resources raised for financing the Government deficit. The weighted average yields, which started moderating from 199697, declined to 5.7 per cent and 6.1 per cent for the Central and State Gover nment secur ities, respectively, by 2003-04 (Table 5.6). 5.135 The weighted average yield on government securities, however, took an upturn in 2004-05 and continued to rise in 2005-06. This was on account of the hardening of interest rates due to uncertainty surrounding international oil prices, upturn in global interest rate cycle, buoyant domestic growth and rise Table 5.5: Maturity Profile of Outstanding Stock of Central Government Securities
(per cent of total) Year 1 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 Under 5 years 2 8.6 7.4 8.1 21.4 25.3 38.3 45.2 41.0 41.4 37.5 35.0 30.6 26.4 22.4 23.8 23.8 Between 5 and 10 years 3 5.6 16.8 14.2 22.3 27.4 30.3 29.0 40.8 42.4 38.7 39.3 35.6 34.7 30.9 30.5 29.8 Over 10 years 4 85.8 75.8 77.8 56.3 47.3 31.3 25.8 18.2 16.1 23.9 25.7 33.8 39.0 46.6 45.7 46.5

New Issues

Outstanding Stock

5.132 In pursuance of the policy of elongating the maturity of government securities, the maximum maturity of securities issued was extended to 25 years in 2001-02 and further to 30 years in 2002-03. Long-dated securities with residual maturity of 20 years and above increased from a mere two securities out of 32 issuances in 1998-99 to 12 securities in 2005-06, indicating the growing appetite for these securities among insurance companies and pension funds. The weighted average maturity of securities issued during 2002-03 declined marginally mainly because of the issuance of securities for prepayment of foreign debt on a maturity matched basis for an average tenor of 9.3 years. Apart from the objective of smooth debt management, the maturity profile was also elongated keeping in view the investor response, particularly the non-bank investors such as insurance companies. The share of securities with maturities of more than 10 years constituted 74 per cent of total issuances during 2005-06, while securities issued below 5-year maturity were insignificant (Table 5.4). 5.133 Reflecting the elongation of maturity of the primary issuances, the composition of outstanding gover nment secur ities has undergone a transformation with the sharp increase in the share of securities with more than 10-year maturity in total outstanding stock since 1998-99 (Table 5.5). Elongation of maturity profile has enabled the formation of yield curve for a longer horizon. 195

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 5.6: Weighted Average Interest Rate on Government Securities

(Per cent) Year 1 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 Centre 2 11.4 11.8 12.5 12.6 11.9 13.8 13.7 12.0 11.9 11.8 11.0 9.4 7.3 5.7 6.1 7.3 States 3 11.5 11.8 13.0 13.5 12.5 14.0 13.8 12.8 12.4 11.9 11.0 9.2 7.5 6.1 6.4 7.6

development of market infrastructure in terms of trading, clearing and settlement systems. Primary Dealers 5.137 The PD system has fur thered the development of the government securities market by facilitating better distribution of primary auctioned stock as well as providing the liquidity in the secondary market (Table 5.7). The share of PDs in the primary issuances, however, declined in the recent period on account of increased bidding interest by insurance companies, particularly in the long dated securities, and by banks. Diversification of Instruments 5.138 As alluded to earlier, measures taken to diversify instruments to meet diverse funding and hedging needs of participants include the issuances of zero coupon bonds, capital indexed bonds, floating rate bonds, and bonds with call and put options. The initial market response to the auctions of zero coupon bonds in the mid-1990s was overwhelming, with value of bids received being more than twice the notified amount. The last auction conducted on October 7, 1996 was, however, undersubscribed, resulting in partial devolvement on PDs and the Reserve Bank. The market response to other new products was lukewarm, as a result of which such instruments were issued intermittently. More recently, FRBs were reintroduced with ten issuances between November 6, 2001 and October 9, 2004. The market response, however, tapered off with the last two FRBs devolving partially on the Reserve Bank and PDs. Table 5.7: Role of Primary Dealers in the Government Securities Market
(Per cent)

in domestic inflation. As discussed above, the average maturity of the primary issuances increased mainly due to encouraging investor response (Chart V. 3). Market Development 5.136 Evolution of an efficient and active market for government securities has been a key objective of debt management operations of economic reforms since beginning. Measures taken to achieve this objective were aimed broadly at widening the participation base, diversification of instruments and
Chart V.3: Yield and Maturity of Central Government Dated Securities

Per cent / Years

Year

Share in Primary Subscription

Share in Turnover (Outright)

Share of Government Securities in Total Assets of PDs 4 79.8 83.9 82.2 71.5 60.9

1 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

Weighted Average Yield (per cent) Weighted Average Maturity (years)

2 65.01 58.49 51.47 52.88 40.36

3 27.70 26.99 23.91 28.24 31.13

Note: Data exclude devolvement but include MSS and noncompetitive bids.

196

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET

Consolidation of Debt 5.139 One of the key issues in the development of the market for a better price discovery is liquidity of securities. It was observed that of the universe of large number of outstanding securities, only a few securities are actively traded in the secondary market. The Reserve Bank has been persisting with the policy of passive consolidation through re-issuance of existing securities with a view to enhancing liquidity in the secondary segment of the government securities market. The share of re-issuances in the total securities issued was 97.7 per cent during 2005-06 (Chart V.4). 5.140 Active consolidation of government securities has also been attempted under the debt buyback scheme introduced in July 2003. Under the scheme, government securities with a face value of Rs.14,434 crore were bought back by offering a premium fixed on a transparent basis and four existing securities of equal face value were reissued in a pre-announced manner. The market value of the securities bought back amounted to Rs.19,394 crore. Turnover in the Government Securities Market 5.141 As a result of the developmental measures undertaken, the volume of transactions in the secondary segment of the government securities market increased manifold over the past decade. However, markets are active and liquid when interest rates decline but turn lacklustre and illiquid when rates rise. This has resulted in the slowdown in the turnover in recent years (Chart V.5).
Chart V.4: Share of Re-issues in the Total Issuance of Central Government Securities

Chart V.5: Yield and Annual Turnover (market value)

Annual Turnover

Yield on 10-year security (end-March)

5.142 The trading pattern of government securities indicates that most of the trading activity takes place in Central Government securities. The share of State Governments securities in annual turnover of the government securities market was less than 1 per cent before 2003-04, while their share in outstanding government securities was around 16-17 per cent. The share of State Government securities in the total turnover, however, improved to around 3 per cent in 2004-05 (Table 5.8). 5.143 Another feature of the trading pattern has been the concentration of trading mostly in securities with maturity of more than 10 years (Chart V.6). There has, however, been a decline in outright transactions in government securities market in 2004-05 and 2005-06, mainly in respect of securities with more than 10 years Table 5.8: Annual Turnover in the Government Securities Market

Per cent

(Rs. crore) Year 1 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 Centre 2 2,83,334 8,15,075 10,13,470 22,63,781 25,77,170 31,43,646 17,70,446 13,47,009 States Centre and States 3 3,032 7,357 5,900 12,135 18,016 32,563 52,929 40,139 4 2,86,366 8,22,432 10,19,370 22,75,916 25,95,186 31,76,209 18,23,375 13,87,148

[Share in total (Per cent)] Centre 5 98.9 99.1 99.4 99.5 99.3 99.0 97.1 97.1 States 6 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.0 2.9 2.9

197

Yield in per cent

Rs. crore

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Chart V.6: Secondary Market Outright Transactions Central Government Securties

securities with outstanding issues of Rs.10,000 crore or more accounted for 77 per cent of the total outstanding amount. The tur nover to total outstanding ratio dipped sharply to 1.1 in 2005-06 from more than 3 in 2003-04. On a daily basis, hardly 10-12 securities are traded, of which the actively traded securities are 4-5. Without active trades in the markets, the yield cur ve is kinked, thereby making it difficult to price securities. This also leads to a situation where securities of similar maturity profiles trade at different yields, with sizeable illiquidity premiums on some occasions. Holding Pattern of Government Securities 5.146 The ownership pattern of the government securities suggests that the investor base has been diversified by the entr y of cooperative banks, regional rural banks, mutual funds and non-banking financial companies in the recent period. The entry of 100 per cent gilt mutual funds has broadened the retail investor base. As a result, the share of others category in the outstanding government securities has increased, par ticularly in recent years (Chart V.7). Nevertheless, commercial banks and Life Insurance Cor poration of India (LIC) continued to hold the largest share of government stocks. The share of LICs holding in the Central and State gover nments securities consistently increased to 20.5 per cent at end-March 2005 from 17.9 per cent at end-March 1999. The share of commercial banks holding, on the other hand, declined steadily from 2001-02.
Chart V.7: Holding Pattern of Central and State Governments Securities

Per cent to total

Below 3 Yrs

4-6 Yrs

7-9 Yrs

10 Yrs and Above

of maturity. The outright transactions in respect of securities with 4-6 years of maturity increased during this period. 5.144 The decline in the share of longer maturity securities in the total trading volume could be attributed to the general upward movement in interest rates and the consequent shift in the participants preference for short-term securities. In the rising interest rate scenario, participants prefer reducing the duration by investing in shorter duration bonds, which skews trading activity more towards shorter segment of the yield curve. This also reflected the change in policy whereby, from September 2, 2004, banks were allowed to exceed the limit of 25 per cent of total investments under held to maturity (HTM) category provided that the excess comprised only SLR securities and the total SLR securities held in the HTM category are not more than 25 per cent of their demand and time liabilities (DTL). To facilitate this, banks were allowed to shift SLR securities to the HTM category during 2004-05 as a one-time measure. Decline in activity at the longer end of the yield curve could also be attributed to the increase in the share of buy & hold investors such as insurance companies and PFs in total government securities. 5.145 Security-wise analysis indicates that the number of actively traded securities is very low as compared with the total number of outstanding securities. As at end-December 2006, there were 102 Central Government securities with an outstanding amount of Rs.10,55,703 crore. Of these, 46 198

Per cent of total

RBI UTI

Commercial banks NABARD EPFS

LIC Others

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET

5.147 The holding of government securities by commercial banks has been driven by interest rate changes, apart from the SLR requirement. As part of the financial reforms, the SLR requirement for banks was gradually reduced to 25 per cent by October 1997 from the peak of 38.5 per cent in February 1992. Banks, however, maintained an average SLR of 37.3 per cent of net demand and time liabilities during the period 1998-99 to 2002-03. Owing to decline in interest rates and low demand for credit, banks found it attractive to invest in SLR securities. In the recent years, however, banks restricted incremental investment and liquidated excess investment in government securities in recent years on account of rise in interest rates and increased credit demand. Thus, SLR securities held by commercial banks are now very close to the prescribed limit of 25 per cent (Chart V.8). Yield Curve 5.148 The need for elongation of maturity pattern was realised in the mid-1990s but the investor preference was for short-term maturity due to market uncertainty. As inflation conditions stabilised, the strategy of elongating the yield curve by issuing a fine blend of long-term and short-term securities, suiting the preference of both the issuer and the investor, has been followed since the late 1990s. The yield curve in India, however, has generally remained flat. The response of short-term rates to changes in the policy rates has been quicker and more pronounced than long-term rates, reflecting the ripple impact of
Chart V.8: Investment in SLR Securities by Scheduled Commercial Banks

policy changes. During 2002-03, repo rate cuts, reduction in administered interest rates and expectations of further reductions in US interest rates resulted in easing of liquidity condition and downward movements in yields. The decline in yield was, however, more at the longer end of the maturity than that at the shorter end on account of active trading at the long-end in a period of low interest rates. This resulted in flatness in the yield curve. In fact, there were occasions when the yield curve inverted in respect of some maturities (Chart V.9). 5.149 Reflecting the instability in the shape of the yield curve, the yield spread across various maturities showed volatile movements. The yield spread between the 1-year and 5-year benchmark securities declined to 9 basis points in January-February 2003, when uncertainty regarding the Iraq war dominated the market. Yield spread across all the maturities from 1year benchmark securities remained low in the phase of declining interest rates up to May 2004 and increased thereafter along with the rise in yields (Chart V.10). 5.150 With the issuance of 30-year paper in 2002-03, the yield cur ve has formed for longer horizon, although it is not liquid at the longer end. The yield curve in India, however, is still at a nascent stage of development with liquidity confined only to a few maturity buckets. Nevertheless, the issuances/reissuances of securities in key maturities are being undertaken to develop the yield curve as a liquid and reliable risk-free benchmark.
Chart V.9: Yield Curve Movement - SGL Transactions

Per cent of NDTL

24-Dec-04

15-Apr-05

12-Jul-02

05-Aug-05

03-Oct-03

03-Sep-04

07-Jul-06

21-Feb-03

27-Oct-06

22-Mar-02

23-Jan-04

13-Jun-03

14-May-04

17-Mar-06

01-Nov-02

25-Nov-05

16-Feb-07

Per cent

Years to maturity Mar-97 Mar-04 Mar-01 Mar-05 Mar-03 Mar-06

Investment in SLR securities (% of NDTL)

SLR

199

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Chart V.10: Movements in Yield Spread

Percentage points

Central Government at 14.72 years during 2006-07 was lower than 16.90 years in the preceding year. The weighted average yield of dated securities issued during 2006-07, on the other hand, increased to 7.89 per cent from 7.34 per cent in the preceding year (Chart V.11). 5.152 The PD system migrated to the revised scheme from April 2006 smoothly. During 2006-07, the share of PDs in dated securities increased marginally to 32 per cent from 31 per cent in the previous year, mainly reflecting the subdued bidding by banks due to hardening of yields. Their share in the auction Treasury Bills (including those issued under the MSS) was placed at 34 per cent of the notified amount as compared with 35 per cent during the previous year. Thus, the share of PDs in the primary subscriptions during 2006-07 was more or less same as in the previous year. 5.153 The secondary market showed increased activity during 2006-07 (up to February 2007) as compared with the previous year, notwithstanding the firming up of yields. Month-end yields, which had peaked in July 2006, moved downward up to November 2006. Yields moved up subsequently, reflecting tighter liquidity conditions, edging up of inflation and promulgation of the Ordinance removing the stipulated SLR floor of 25 per cent of NDTL. Total tur nover up to Febr uar y 2007 amounted to Rs.19,27,465 crore, registering an increase of 52.9 per cent over the same period of the previous year.
Chart V.11: Yield and Maturity of Central Government Dated Securities Primary Auctions

FRBM Stipulations and Market Operations 5.151 As stipulated in the FRBM Act, 2003, the Reserve Bank withdrew from participating in the primary market for Central Government securities from April 1, 2006. In order to ensure a smooth transition to the new system, the Reserve Bank has taken a number of measures to make the market deeper, broader and more liquid while improving trading/settlement and institutional infrastructure. In the auctions held in June and July 2006, the notified amounts were altered taking into account the liquidity conditions and investor demand. An additional issuance was also done in June 2006 to absorb excess liquidity. As a result, aggregate amount of issuances during the first half of 2006-07 was as per the indicative calendar issued by the Government of India, in consultation with the Reserve Bank. In the second half of 2006-07, the scheduled auction in the 10-year segment scheduled to be held in January 12, 2007 was, however, cancelled and the notified amount in the auction held in March 2007 was reduced after revising the Governments borrowing requirement. During the year, 33 securities were issued. Of these, 30 securities were reissues, while three were new securities of 10-year, 15-year and 30-year maturities issued to provide benchmarks in the respective segments. The total issuance of dated securities during 2006-07 at Rs.1,46,000 crore was higher than Rs.1,27,000 crore raised in the preceding year. The weighted average maturity of dated securities of the

May-02 Jul-02 Sep-02 Nov-02 Jan-03 Mar-03 May-03 Jul-03 Sep-03 Nov-03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov-04 Jan-05 Mar-05 May-05 Jul-05 Sep-05 Nov-05 Jan-06 Mar-06

5 yrs yield spread 15 yrs yield spread

10 yrs yield spread 20 yrs yield spread

Maturity (Years)

Weighted Average Maturity Weighted Average Yield (Right scale)

200

Yield ( Per cent)

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET

Chart V.12: Monthly Yields and Turnover in Central Government Securities

Chart V.13: Trading Volumes in When Issued Market

10 years yield in per cent

Turnover in Rs. crore

Apr

Sep

Aug

Jun

Nov

May

Jan

Jul

Oct

Dec

Feb

Mar

Rs. crore

Sep-06

Nov-06

Jan-07

Aug-06

Dec-06

Feb-07

Oct-06

2006-07 Turnover 2006-07 Yield

2005-06 Turnover 2005-06 Yield

Yield on 10-year maturity at end-February 2007 at 7.98 per cent was higher by 61 basis points than that during the previous year (Chart V.12). When Issued Market 5.154 The guidelines for trading in when issued (WI) market were issued by the Reserve Bank on May 3, 2006. The actual trading in WI market commenced with the auction of Central Government securities in the calendar week August 1 to 8, 2006. Trading volumes in the WI market, however, have been insignificant (Chart V.13). Volumes in recent months have been adversely affected by expectations of reduction in SLR and overall liquidity constraints. 5.155 With more number of participants gradually putting in place their internal policies, it is expected that the trading volumes in the WI market would pick up. The extension of WI trading to select newly issued securities as announced in the Mid-term Review of Annual Policy for the Year 2006-07, which would commence after the software modifications are made in NDS-OM, is expected to spur the growth of volumes in this segment. Market Integration

close co-movement of rates of return. Data on yields of various instruments indicate that the movements in yields of 10-year government securities are almost in perfect synchronisation with that of 364-day Treasury Bills. Yields of 14-day Treasury Bills also moved in line with 10-year maturity during the current decade (Chart V.14). 5.157 In order to examine the improvement in the market integration process across various maturity segments, the correlations of first difference of the
Chart V.14: Yields on Various Government Securities Market Instruments

Per cent

Apr-98

Oct-98

Apr-99

Oct-99

Apr-00

Oct-00

Apr-01

Oct-01

Apr-02

Oct-02

Apr-03

Oct-03

Apr-04

Oct-04

Apr-05

5.156 The progress of financial sector reforms in India has been marked by a growing integration of var ious segments within the financial market. Evidence of market inter-linkages is reflected in the

10-Year G-Sec

14 Day T-bill

364-Day T-bill

201

Oct-05

Mar-07

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 5.9: Correlation of Yield on 10-year Government Securities with Other Instruments
Instrument Correlation between Levels April 1998January 2006 1 14-Day Treasury Bills 364-Day Treasury Bills 2 0.88 0.98 April 1998August 2000 3 -0.04 0.37 September 2000January 2006 4 0.89 0.98 Correlation between First Difference April 1998January 2006 5 0.24 0.62 April 1998August 2000 6 0.17 0.62 September 2000January 2006 7 0.25 0.62

yields on 10-year government securities with first difference of yields on 14-day Treasury Bills and 364day Treasury Bills yields were examined. 10 The correlations indicate that the yield on 10-year government securities showed greater integration with higher matur ity segment. The degree of integration across all segments has, however, improved significantly in the current decade (Table 5.9). 5.158 An overall assessment indicates that various measures under taken have led to significant improvement in the functioning of the government securities market. The primary market has attained a greater resilience, benefiting from measures taken for the development of institutions and instruments. The establishment of the settlement and trading infrastructure has led to increased activity in the secondary market. The development of the market and the prudent debt management strategy have enabled smooth transition to the FRBM phase. Thus, the government securities market in India has witnessed a transition to an increasingly broad-based market characterised by an efficient auction process, an active secondary market and a liquid yield curve up to 30 years (Mohan, 2006). Some concerns, however, include lukewarm response to the new instruments; relative flatness of the yield curve; and asymmetric response to interest rate movements in the secondary market. V. THE WAY FORWARD

markets in several countries. First, while the large size of issuances of government securities contributes to market liquidity, countries facing fixed or declining borrowing requirements have proactively enhanced market liquidity by enlarging issuances of benchmark securities at key maturities and weeding out others. For instance, when government financing needs declined in the US in 1997, the issuances of 3-year Treasury notes were discontinued, instead of cutting the overall issue size throughout the yield curve. Alternatively, some countries have also reduced the frequency of new issuances to enhance the issue size to promote liquidity of the market. Second, a key strategy has also been to infuse competition among dealers for efficient pr ice discover y. Dynamic competition among the exchanges on the one hand, and between OTC and organised exchanges on the other, contribute to market liquidity. Third, countries are also becoming more transparent in terms of issuance schedule and dissemination of market information. Fourth, several countries have enhanced safety in trading and settlement of government security transactions by shortening and standardising settlement lags and adopting the DvP system. They have also allowed short sales to promote market making. In this context, they have standardised rules and practices for failed deliveries and have opened windows for special security lending and/or repo facilities through which authorities can provide securities in short supply. 5.160 Countries are increasingly adopting suitable models for assessing the trade-off between expected costs and risks in debt portfolio. Several countries also adopt stress testing to assess the market risk of the debt portfolio. Countries typically measure risk in terms of potential increase in costs resulting from financial and other shocks. Brazil, Por tugal and Sweden are also using concepts such as cost-tobudget or budget-at-risk to reflect joint analysis of

5.159 The government securities market is typically the seminal and organic component of financial markets in most countries. It is a veritable public good in the sense that all credit/debt market instruments, including derivatives are typically priced on the basis of this market. Various measures, therefore, have been initiated by the authorities to develop and foster deep, liquid and efficient government securities
10

The co-movements in yields on various instruments could reflect the 'random walk' behaviour of the variables. The 'random walk' of the series also results in high correlations between 'levels' of the yields on various instruments under discussion. The application of 'unit root tests' indicated that all the four series under discussion are non-stationary at levels but stationary at first difference.

202

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET

debt and GDP or budget flows to shocks. Various countries are using different variants of at risk models to consider exposure of debt portfolio to different market variables. The institutional set up in most countries now has a middle office for managing the cost and risk dimensions of debt portfolio. 5.161 Managers of public debt in many countries are actively managing their debt portfolio. While factors prompting them to take positions vary across countries, a common feature is that many countries have centralised their debt management activities outside the central bank. When central banks as debt managers take active positions in the debt market, they need to be consistent with regard to the policy signals that they convey to financial markets. Several debt management authorities also take advantage of price anomalies by undertaking a buyback of illiquid securities and substituting them with liquid securities. Cross country experience brings out that whether central banks act as managers of public debt or not, they play a vital role in (i) developing the trading infrastructure for gover nment securities in the secondary market; (ii) evolving suitable payment and settlement systems; and (iii) promoting safety and efficiency in government security transactions. Where debt management is outside the central bank, care has to be taken to ensure that trading activities of the debt manager do not conflict with the central banks monetary management. Consequently, even when debt management is outside the central bank, arrangements have to be made for appropriate coordination so that conflicting signals are not given. 5.162 As documented, a great deal of development has taken place in Indias government securities market but it still needs to acquire more depth and liquidity across all the maturities so as to generate a meaningful yield curve over the whole range. Some of the major issues that need to be addressed for further developing the government securities market are set out below. Consolidation and Liquidity 5.163 As noted above, liquidity is an essential feature of a vibrant government securities market. Trading in the government securities market in India is limited to a few securities. The yield curve is kinked due to the presence of a large number of securities attracting illiquidity premium, whereby two government securities having similar maturity and coupon may trade at different yields. While the process of passive consolidation has improved liquidity, there is a need to pursue the strategy of active consolidation 203

by way of buyback of illiquid securities and issuances of liquid securities. This strategy, however, needs to be in tune with the market requirements so as to provide adequate menu for choice. From the perspective of the issuer, it is important to note that creation of a few benchmarks may lead to the associated problem of bunching of repayments and rollover. Thus, while pursuing the strategy of active consolidation, there would be a need to closely monitor the trade-off between creation of benchmarks across a few maturities and the repayment schedule. Price Discovery and Short Sale 5.164 Activity in the government securities market in India has been characterised by asymmetric response of participants to the interest rate cycle, i.e., market turnover spurts during an interest rate downturn but slumps during the cycle of rising interest rates. This is partly because participants are not allowed to undertake short sale in government securities. Lack of ability to sell short prevents a twoway expression of interest rate views. On the one hand, investors, who expect the interest rate to decline, take only long position, thereby exposing themselves to possible capital losses in case expectations are not met. On the other hand, investors expecting interest rate to increase cannot express their expectations due to lack of short sale facility. This situation also results in over-pricing/ under-pricing across different segments due to demand and supply imbalances. In this context, intraday short selling was permitted only from February 2006 and the period was recently extended to five trading days effective January 31, 2007. There is a need to monitor the functioning of short sales, before contemplating the removal of the five-day limit. Promoting Retail Segment for Government Securities 5.165 There is a need to promote retail and midsegment investors. Although retail investors constitute a small por tion of the gover nment securities market, they, as long-term investors, impart stability to the market. This will also benefit small investors by providing them access to risk free gilt edged secur ities. Retail investment in government securities may be promoted directly or through gilt mutual funds. Although a system has been put in place whereby commercial banks can have a constituent SGL account for holding government securities on behalf of their customers in safe custody in demat form, many of them have yet to make this facility available to their branch

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customers. PDs also need to make a greater effort to promote the mid-segment investors such as provident and pension funds, co-operative banks and trusts. In this context, the Internal Technical Group on Central Gover nment Secur ities Mar ket recommended that PDs must make at least 10 per cent of their secondary market transactions (outright) with non-NDS members. Implementing this recommendation would help in widening the investor base for government securities. It may, therefore, be desirable to implement policies and processes whereby banks and PDs can operate as active market makers and encourage greater participation by retail investors, both individuals and institutions, in the government securities market. Book Building by Primary Dealers 5.166 The Internal Technical Group on Central Government Securities Market suggested book building as one of the measures for restructuring the primar y issuance framework in the post-FRBM period. The book building method may be more suitable when market conditions are highly uncertain, thereby mitigating the bidding risk at auctions. It could also be used when new instruments are issued for the first time for which market response is not known. Select PDs may be appointed as arrangers for the issue. Three or four arrangers may be appointed for an issue so as to avoid emergence of any monopolistic practices. Each PD would arrange to place the stock within a price range mutually agreed to by it with the Reserve Bank. As PDs undertake to arrange the issue, the success of the issue is guaranteed, albeit at a cost. This method can also be used as an incentive for PDs for better performance in the primary and secondary markets. PDs may be selected for book building by ranking them according to the stipulated criteria in terms of success in primary auctions and turnover in the secondary market. Diversification of Instruments 5.167 Trading activity in the recently introduced when-issued segment of the government securities market is still at a nascent stage and volumes are low. The activity is, however, likely to pick up after the operationalisation of WI trading in new issuances on a selective basis, in addition to WI trading in reissuances, and also with increased market familiarity with this trading practice. Similarly, FRBs, which are primarily used to hedge against volatility in interest rates, have elicited limited investor response. A major factor inhibiting investor response to FRBs is 204

complexity in the valuation of these bonds. Capitalindexed bonds, which provided hedge against inflation, also showed lacklustre response from investors. A restructured version of the same, as has been proposed by the Reserve Bank, incorporating appropriate selection of an inflation index and reducing indexation lag, may encourage market response to this instrument. A common element responsible for the slow progress in the development of new instruments is the lack of familiarity, which implies that market needs some more time to adjust before showing appetite for the new instruments. Roadmap for STRIPS 5.168 The Reserve Bank is actively taking steps for developing a market in separate trading of registered interest and pr incipal of securities (STRIPS). The implementation of STRIPS would facilitate creation of a series of benchmark rates and enable evolution of a market structure for selling the securities in retail. Apart from expanding the investor base, the introduction of STRIPS would also facilitate the development of a proper yield curve (Box V.9). With the passage of the Government Securities Act, 2006, a framewor k is being put in place for introduction of STRIPS. There is, however, a need to have a sizeable stock of securities with identical coupon payment dates so as to enable bunching. This involves a strategy for primary issuances, which would align the coupon payments of underlying securities. It may be noted that the process of aligning coupon payments commenced in August 2003. For this purpose, the System Requirement Study (SRS) has already examined the required technological and operational arrangements. Low Liquidity of State Government Paper 5.169 The trading pattern in the secondary market reveals that State Government securities are thinly traded. This is mainly due to the absence of critical minimum mass necessary for active trading. This, in turn, reflects limited recourse by the States to market borrowings and fragmentation across issuers (28 States). Predominance of buy-and-hold investors in such securities could also have contributed to illiquidity in State Government securities. 5.170 The need to improve liquidity in State Government securities is felt all the more as the States may have to increase their recourse to market borrowings for several reasons. First, in accordance with the Twelfth Finance Commission (TFC)s

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Box V.9 Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal of Securities (STRIPS)
The investor in a coupon bond receives coupon payments periodically followed by the final coupon payment and the face value of the bond at the time of maturity. In contrast, a zero coupon bond (ZCB) entails payment of face value of the bond at the maturity without any coupon payments thereby doing away with re-investment risk of a coupon bond. The uncertainty regarding re-investment in coupon bond poses a problem in valuation. For valuing a coupon bond at a given point of time, it is assumed that each coupon payment is reinvested at the same rate the yield to maturity (YTM) rate. The market value is computed as the aggregate of the present values of all future coupon flows, and the present values, in turn, are arrived at by discounting all the coupon flows at the same YTM rate. STRIPS are like a ZCB whereby coupons and the underlying security are detached and can be traded separately as zero coupon bonds. The zero coupon yield curve is required for valuing STRIPS or ZCBs. Zero coupon curve can also be used for valuing coupon bonds; only, in such a case, each cash flow has to be discounted at the respective rates given by the zero coupon yield curve instead of discounting all cash flows at a (YTM) rate read off from a conventional yield curve. In case the zero coupon yield curve is upward sloping, the YTM will be lower than the zero coupon yield at maturity since, when discounting on the zero curve, the earlier cash flows are discounted at lower yields and the subsequent ones, at higher yields. The industry practice is to use the YTM rate read off from the conventional yield curve for discounting the cash flows in the case of coupon bonds. The trading of STRIPS in the market will lead to derivation of a true zero coupon yield curve which will result in a more accurate valuation of government securities. Stripping of coupons increases depth and liquidity by attracting more participants and higher volumes in trading, since an investment in STRIPS would enable a trader to increase the duration of his portfolio without putting more cash. It also provides new avenues to PDs as market makers and also attracts retail investors. Long-term investors such as pension funds and insurance companies can use STRIPS to narrow the gap between the maturities of their assets and liabilities, besides earning a guaranteed return. It would enable corporate entities to manage their cash flows without re-investment risk. Trading in STRIPS increases the duration and convexity and involves lower cash outlay, thereby enabling the participants to minimise the losses during rising interest rates and maximise gains during falling interest rates. STRIPS would make foreign institutional investors (FIIs) more inclined towards investing in sovereign debt on account of higher duration at lower cash outlay. The Informal Working Group on Stripping of Gilts: Scope, Mechanics and Operational Aspects, constituted in 1997, identified the following as the pre-requisites for the development of a gilt STRIPS market: (i) a favourable taxation environment; exclusive use of book-entry, or dematerialised system for undertaking transactions in gilts; (ii) Public Debt Offices (PDOs) disseminating information to the investing public on strippable securities and segment-wise holdings of STRIPS, and making STRIPS issues sufficiently large in volume (through var ious methods such as reissues in designated strippable securities, making coupons from different strippable securities fungible, etc.) so as to ensure liquidity in STRIPS; (iii) ensuring transparency and predictability in gilt market operations by ushering in an automated and risk-free clearing and settlement system and; (iv) use of moder n technology for successful implementation of stripping and reconstitution. Source: Reserve Bank of India. 2002. Report of the Working Group for Suggesting Operational and Prudential Guidelines on STRIPS. August.

recommendations, the Central Governments loans for State Plans have been discontinued. Second, the minimum obligation of the State Governments to borrow from the National Small Saving Fund (NSSF) has been reduced from 100 per cent to 80 per cent of net collections, effective April 1, 2007. This may encourage the States to rely more on market borrowings as interest rates on market borrowings are still below that of NSSF. Third, the small savings collection has also decelerated on account of narrowing of interest rate spreads between small savings and bank deposits and the extension of tax incentives to bank deposits of five years and above. Enhanced liquidity in State Government securities would, therefore, enable the States to reduce their 205

borrowings costs. In this context, the Working Group on Liquidity of State Gover nment Secur ities (Chairman: Shri V.K. Sharma) considered passive consolidation of securities as a crucial strategy for improving the liquidity. This would, however, require the State Governments to improve their fiscal position, get credit rating of their paper and take recourse to auctions more frequently. The Group recommended a more active role of PDs in terms of providing twoway quotes for State Development Loans (SDLs) and developing the retail investor base. The Group also recommended a minimum size of Rs.1,000 crore per tranche of market borrowing, introduction of short sales and reserved allotment at cut-off price/yield to encourage retailing and market making. It also

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suggested introduction of non-competitive bidding in the primary auctions of SDLs, use of OTC derivatives with State Government securities as the underlying instrument, introduction of LAF repos using State Government securities and use of SDLs as collateral for provision of intra-day liquidity under the RTGS. The Group recommended the alignment of tax structure on small savings with SDLs to widen the investor base and the establishment of special purpose vehicle (SPV) to issue SPV securities backed by the Central Government guarantee for consolidation of outstanding State Government securities to build up volumes. During 2006-07, the State Governments have raised resources exclusively through auctions. Furthermore, the Annual Policy Statement of the Reserve Bank for 2006-07 proposed to extend noncompetitive bidding facility to primary auctions of SDLs and also to introduce purchase and resale of SDLs by the Reserve Bank under the overnight LAF repo operations. Active consolidation through debt buyback of specified SDLs of two State Governments has also been introduced. These efforts may be continued to improve liquidity in State Government securities. Fair Value Accounting 5.171 Banks are reluctant to hold government securities in the AFS category in a rising interest rate scenario, as the depreciation of securities is required to be charged to the Profit & Loss (P&L) account, while appreciation is to be ignored. If depreciation as well as appreciation is permitted to be charged to the Reserve Account instead of P&L account, banks would have a greater incentive to hold/trade in government securities than at present. International Accounting Standard (IAS) 39 permits charging of depreciation on AFS securities to the equity account. Similarly, in line with the international practice, the fair value accounting method recognises both gains and losses on the HFT portfolio, thereby affording flexibility to market participants. In this regard, the Reserve Bank released the draft guidelines in July 2006 on classification and valuation of investments. According to the draft guidelines, a gain or loss arising from valuation changes in the AFS portfolio will be reflected under the head unrealised gain/loss on AFS portfolio in the Reserve Account. Statutory reserve requirements and prudential norms will not be applicable on balances under this head. On sale, the cumulative gain or loss under this head will be recognised in the P&L account. The implementation of these guidelines should encourage trading in government securities. 206

FRBM and SLR Flexibility 5.172 The Reserve Bank has been successfully managing the borrowing requirements of the Government through a prudent debt management strategy. The strategy of the Reserve Bank to take devolvement/private placement, particularly in the phase of tight liquidity, was critical in managing the borrowings programme of the Government. With the stipulation in the FRBM Act that the Reserve Bank shall not subscribe to primary issuances of Central Government securities after April 1, 2006, managing Government borrowings and liquidity in the market necessitated certain changes in the operation of monetary policy and debt management. Accordingly, the Reserve Bank effected institutional changes so as to ensure that debt management objectives are met without distorting the market conditions. 5.173 At present, the demand for government securities is largely driven by the SLR requirements. As many banks are now holding SLR securities close to the prescribed minimum level, the growth in demand for government securities in future may be in tandem with the expansion of NDTL of banks. However, in the wake of the amendment of the Banking Regulation Act, 1949, which provides flexibility in fixing the SLR requirement, non-bank investor category would have to make up for any shortfall in demand for government securities by banks. Though the FRBM Act places a limit on fiscal deficit of the Central Government at 3 per cent of GDP from 2008-09, this may not result in significant reduction in the absolute level of net issuance of government securities, considering the robust growth in nominal GDP. Thus, it is crucial to diversify the investor base, match instrument profile with the market requirement and promote liquidity in the market. Impact of Capital Account Convertibility 5.174 The government securities market is now largely driven by domestic macroeconomic conditions, and financial market development and sentiment. A fuller capital account convertibility regime implies a higher degree of integration of domestic financial markets with the rest of the world and also an increase in foreign exchange flows. In a well-developed and integrated financial system, volatility in any market segment gets transmitted to other segments as well. As alluded to earlier, integration of the government secur ities mar ket with the money mar ket has increased in recent years. FIIs could also be expected to play a greater role in the government securities market in future as the calibrated measures are taken

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for fuller capital account convertibility over time. Expansion of access by foreign investors to the Indian government securities market will have to be done carefully, taking into account issues related to opportunities for arbitrage, overall macroeconomic conditions and the need for financial stability. 5.175 In the above scenario, external macroeconomic developments would play an increasingly important role in the government securities market. Therefore, to maintain the resilience of the domestic government securities market, it would be critical to increase the depth of the market and diversify the domestic investor base. The greater diversity in perception arising from foreign investors should help in promoting the overall stability of the government securities market over the long-term. However, the increased participation of foreign investors would need to be managed carefully. 5.176 To sum up, although the gover nment securities market has witnessed significant changes in recent years, it is still in the process of maturing in terms of depth as well as liquidity. While the total outstanding stock of Central and State Government securities has grown to about Rs.12 lakh crore, most of the trading in Central Government securities is concentrated in select maturities, with the 10-year maturity, on an average, accounting for about 50 per cent of the daily trading volume. The liquidity in most other Central Government and State Government securities is low. Participants in the government securities market include mainly banks, insurance companies and provident funds. In order to improve depth and liquidity of the government securities market, there is a need to promote non-mandated investor base. Short selling represents a major policy advance as stated earlier, and going forward, it is expected to deliver the required liquidity, depth and efficiency in the cash as well as interest rate derivative markets. VI. SUMMING UP 5.177 The government securities markets have gained importance in most countries in the overall financial system in recent years. Initiatives have been taken to make them more vibrant and active by improving liquidity and depth; enhancing transparency of primary issuances; widening investor base; finetuning auction procedures; benchmarking and consolidating across key maturities; developing new instr uments; and putting in place appropr iate safeguards and sound trading and settlement infrastructure. Furthermore, managers of public debt across countries are paying greater attention to 207

minimising the cost of borrowings in the medium to long-term, while striking a balance between the costs and the risks in the short run. 5.178 The government securities market in India has evolved over the years. Several measures have been initiated since the early 1990s to develop a deep and liquid government securities market for reducing the cost of government market borrowings, providing appropriate benchmarks for pricing other financial instruments and conducting monetary policy in a flexible manner. While significant progress has been made in this direction, the evolving economic conditions and the move towards fuller capital account convertibility necessitate further fine-tuning of the operating framework so as to ensure smooth debt management operations. 5.179 The switchover to auction based system of issuance of government securities in the early 1990s was a major step towards development of the government securities market. The investor base has become more voluntary and diversified with the participation by non-banking entities. Taking into account market preferences, new instruments with innovative features have been introduced from time to time. Technological developments have enabled the introduction of screen-based anonymous trading and repor ting platfor m. This has facilitated dissemination of trading information with a minimum time lag, besides enabling electronic bidding in primary auctions and facilitating efficient order matching. Furthermore, the operationalisation of the CCIL has ensured guaranteed settlement of trades and has, therefore, imparted considerable stability to the government securities market. The strategy of consolidation of government securities mainly through re-issuances has resulted in critical mass in key maturities, facilitating the emergence of market benchmarks. The operation of a system of market inter mediaries in the for m of PDs has facilitated the Reserve Banks smooth withdrawal from the primary market from April 1, 2006 as provided in the FRBM Act. 5.180 The functioning of the government securities market since the mid-1990s indicates consistent increase in the size of the market in tandem with the growth in market borrowings of both the Central and the State Governments. The weighted average cost of market borrowings declined consistently up to 2003-04, which enabled elongation of weighted average matur ity of pr imar y issuances. The Government has been raising progressively higher share of market borrowings through re-issuances

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under the strategy of passive consolidation of debt. Reflecting the effectiveness of various measures initiated to develop the market, turnover in the secondary market has increased manifold over the years, before declining in 2004-05 and 2005-06. The holding pattern of government debt shows some increase in the relative share of non-banks, reflecting a progressive diversification of the investor base. The government securities market has increasingly displayed co-movements with the money market and has also responded to the changes in international interest rates from time to time. 5.181 Notwithstanding the substantial progress in the government securities market, certain issues need to be addressed for its further development. Under the FRBM regime, the Reser ve Bank cannot par ticipate in the pr imar y mar ket. PDs, as underwriters, are, therefore, required to absorb the

unsubscr ibed secur ities in the auctions. Any consequent escalation in the cost of government borrowing can be mitigated by greater diversification of the investor base. It also needs to be widened to counter the possible reduction in the captive investor base. Increase in trading volumes in the secondary market would largely hinge on the improvement in trading liquidity in key maturities across the yield curve. This would require active consolidation of government securities, in addition to the present system of passive consolidation. The development of a critical mass in the key securities and the matching of coupon payment dates would also pave the way for the introduction of STRIPS. Illiquidity in State Government securities affects the cost of borrowing for the State Governments. Therefore, there is a need to extend measures taken for enhancing liquidity in Central Government securities to State Government securities as well.

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ANNEX V.1: Reforms in the Government Securities Market

Year 1 June 1992 January 1994 Reform Initiated 2 Introduction of auction method for issue of Central Government securities. Zero Coupon Bond was issued for the first time. Securities Trading Corporation of India (STCI) commenced operations. Agreement between the Reserve Bank and Government of India on limiting issue of ad hoc Treasury Bills. Primary Dealer system introduced. Objective 3 To make yields on government securities market determined. To add new instruments and intermediaries. Outcome 4 Price discovery has improved over a period of time. STCI and other PDs have become impor tant intermediaries in the government securities market. Cash management of Government has improved.

August 1994

To do away with automatic monetisation.

March 1995

To strengthen the market Intermediation and support primary issue.

PD system has evolved as an important segment of government securities market. Transition from DvPI method (funds and securities settlement on gross basis) to DvP-III method (funds and securities settlement on net basis) has been made. FRBs were discontinued after the first issuance due to lack of market enthusiasm. FRBs were reintroduced in November 2001 but were again discontinued in October 2004. Plays a pivotal role in implementing the Reserve Banks reform agenda based on a consultative approach. Transparency and pricing has improved. Has imparted greater autonomy in monetary policy making. Market practices have improved.

July 1995

Delivery versus Payment (DvP) system in government securities was introduced.

To reduce settlement risk.

September 1995

Floating Rate Bonds (FRBs) introduced.

To add more instruments.

January 1997

Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) was constituted.

To advise Reserve Bank on developing government securities, money and forex markets. Discontinuation of automatic monetisation.

March 1997

Introduction of WMA system for Centre.

April 1997

FIMMDA was established.

Introduction of self regulation and development of market practices and ethics. To broaden the market.

July 1997

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were permitted to invest in government securities. Capital Indexed Bonds were issued.

FIIs have become important players in the market, particularly in the Treasury Bill segment. Efforts are being made to revitalise this product. This has also helped in managing the overnight risk. (Contd.)

December 1997 April 2000

To help investors hedge inflation risk.

Sale of securities allotted in primary issues on the same day.

To improve secondary market.

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ANNEX V.1: Reforms in the Government Securities Market (Concld.)

Year 1 February 2002 June 2002 Reform Initiated 2 Clearing Corporation of India Limited (CCIL) was established. PDs were brought under the jurisdiction of Board for Financial Supervision (BFS). Trade data of NDS made available on Reserve Bank website. Retail trading of government securities permitted on stock exchanges. Regulated constituents permitted participation in repo markets. Interest Rate Futures were introduced. Government Debt buyback scheme was implemented. Introduction of DvP III. Objective 3 To act as a clearing agency for transactions in government securities. For integrated supervision of market. Outcome 4 Stability in market has improved, greatly mitigating the settlement risk. The position is being reported periodically to BFS.

October 2002 January 2003 February 2003 June 2003 July 2003

To improve transparency.

The measure is helping the small investors as well. This has not taken off very well. Efforts are being made to improve the position. Activity in the repo market has improved. These futures have not taken off. Other measures for active consolidation being considered. Running successfully.

To facilitate easier access and wider participation. To widen the market.

To facilitate hedging of interest rate risk. To reduce interest burden of government and help banks offload illiquid securities. To obtain netting efficiency and to enable rollover of repos. To provide real time, online, large value inter-bank payment and settlements. To provide the NDS members with a more efficient trading platform.

March 2004 April 2004

Introduction of RTGS.

Running successfully.

August 2005

The Negotiated Dealing System-Order Matching (NDS-OM), an anonymous order matching system which allows straight-through processing (STP) was established. Intra-day short selling permitted. This was later extended to five trading days, effective January 31, 2007. Commencement of When Issued trading.

Over 60 per cent of transactions in government securities are done through NDS-OM.

February 2006

To improve liquidity in market, particularly in the rising interest rates phase.

Is in a nascent stage of development.

August 2006 August 2006

Efficient price discovery and distribution of auctioned stock. To facilitate wider par ticipation in government securities market and create the enabling provisions for issue of Separately Traded Registered Interest and Principal Securities (STRIPS).

Is in a nascent stage of development.

Government Securities Act, 2006 passed by the Parliament.

Awaiting notification of the Rules.

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VI

FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

6.1 Globally, operations in the foreign exchange market started in a major way after the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, which also marked the beginning of floating exchange rate regimes in several countries. Over the years, the foreign exchange market has emerged as the largest market in the world. The decade of the 1990s witnessed a perceptible policy shift in many emerging markets towards reorientation of their financial markets in terms of new products and instruments, development of institutional and mar ket infrastr ucture and realignment of regulatory structure consistent with the liberalised operational framework. The changing contours were mirrored in a rapid expansion of foreign exchange market in terms of participants, transaction volumes, decline in transaction costs and more efficient mechanisms of risk transfer. 6.2 The origin of the foreign exchange market in India could be traced to the year 1978 when banks in India were permitted to undertake intra-day trade in foreign exchange. However, it was in the 1990s that the Indian foreign exchange market witnessed far reaching changes along with the shifts in the currency regime in India. The exchange rate of the rupee, that was pegged earlier was floated partially in March 1992 and fully in March 1993 following the recommendations of the Report of the High Level Committee on Balance of Payments (Chairman: Dr.C. Rangarajan). The unification of the exchange rate was instrumental in developing a market-determined exchange rate of the rupee and an important step in the progress towards current account convertibility, which was achieved in August 1994. 6.3 A further impetus to the development of the foreign exchange market in India was provided with the setting up of an Exper t Group on Foreign Exchange Markets in India (Chairman: Shri O.P. Sodhani), which submitted its report in June 1995. The Group made several recommendations for deepening and widening of the Indian foreign exchange market. Consequently, beginning from January 1996, wide-ranging reforms have been undertaken in the Indian foreign exchange market. After almost a decade, an Internal Technical Group on the Foreign Exchange Mar ket (2005) was constituted to undertake a comprehensive review of

the measures initiated by the Reserve Bank and identify areas for further liberalisation or relaxation of restrictions in a medium-term framework. 6.4 The momentous developments over the past few years are reflected in the enhanced risk-bearing capacity of banks along with rising foreign exchange trading volumes and finer margins. The foreign exchange market has acquired depth (Reddy, 2005). The conditions in the foreign exchange market have also generally remained orderly (Reddy, 2006c). While it is not possible for any country to remain completely unaffected by developments in international markets, India was able to keep the spillover effect of the Asian crisis to a minimum through constant monitoring and timely action, including recourse to strong monetary measures, when necessary, to prevent emergence of selffulfilling speculative activities (Mohan, 2006a). 6.5 Against the above background, this chapter attempts to analyse the role of the central bank in developing the foreign exchange market. Section I provides a brief review of different exchange rate regimes being followed in emerging mar ket economies (EMEs). Section II traces the evolution of Indias foreign exchange market in line with the shifts in Indias exchange rate policies in the postindependence period from the pegged to the market determined regime. Various regulatory and policy initiatives taken by the Reser ve Bank and the Government of India for developing the foreign exchange market in the market determined set up have also been highlighted. Section III presents a detailed overview of the current foreign exchange market structure in India. It also analyses the available market infrastructure in terms of market players, trading platfor m, instr uments and settlement mechanisms. Section IV assesses the performance of the Indian foreign exchange market in terms of liquidity and efficiency. The increase in turnover in both onshore and offshore markets is highlighted in this section. Empirical exercises have also been attempted to assess the behaviour of forward premia, bid-ask spreads and mar ket tur nover. Having delineated the mar ket profile, Section V then discusses the journey of the Indian foreign exchange market since the early 1990s, especially through

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periods of volatility and its management by the authorities. As central bank intervention has been an important element of managing volatility in the foreign exchange market, its need and effectiveness in a market determined exchange rate and open capital regime has been examined in Section VI. Section VII makes certain suggestions with a view to further deepening the foreign exchange market so that it can meet the challenges of an integrated world. Section VIII sums up the discussions. I. EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES IN EMERGING MARKETS

(iii) reserves should at least be sufficient to take care of fluctuations in capital flows and liquidity at risk (Jalan, 2003). 6.9 Broadly, the overall distribution of exchange rate regimes across the globe among main categories remained more or less stable during 2001-06, though there was a tendency for some countries to shift across and within exchange regimes (Table 6.1). As at end-April 2006, there were more floating regimes (79 countries including 53 managed floats and 26 independent floats) than soft pegs (60 countries) or hard pegs (48 countries) (Exhibit VI.1). Managed floats are found in all par ts of the globe, while conventional fixed pegs are mostly observed in the Middle East, the North Africa and parts of Asia. On the other hand, hard pegs are found primarily in Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa (the CFA zones) and small island economies (for instance, in the Eastern Caribbean). While 20 countries moved from a soft peg to a floating regime during the past four years, this was offset by a similar number of other countries abandoning the floating arrangements in favour of soft pegs. 6.10 The substantial movement between soft pegs and floating regimes suggests that floating is not necessarily a durable state, particularly for lower and middle-income countries, whereas there appears to be a greater state of flux between managed floating and pegged arrangements in high-income economies. The frequency with which countries fall back to pegs after a relatively short spell in floating suggests that many countries face institutional and operational constraints to floating. The preference for tighter management seems to have intensified recently as a number of countries have enjoyed strong external demand and capital inflows. Other notable trends included a shift away from currency baskets, with the US dollar remaining the currency of choice for countries with hard pegs as well as soft pegs. One third of the dollar pegs are hard pegs and the remaining are soft pegs. The choice of the US dollar for countries with soft pegs reflects its continued importance as an invoicing currency and a high share of trade with the US or other countries that peg to the US dollar. The euro is the second most important currency and serves as an exchange rate anchor for countries in Europe and the CFA franc zone in Africa. 6.11 During the last 15 years, there was a general tendency among the emerging market economies to adopt a more flexible exchange rate regime (Table 6.2). In emerging Asia, there is a broad consensus that the soft US dollar peg operated by a 212

6.6 The regulatory framework governing the foreign exchange market and the operational freedom available to market participants is, to a large extent, influenced by the exchange rate regime followed by an economy. In this section, therefore, we take a look at the exchange rate regimes that the EMEs have adopted during the 1990s. 6.7 The experience with capital flows in the 1990s has had an important bearing on the choice of the exchange rate regime by EMEs in recent years. The emphasis on corner solutions - a fixed peg a la the currency board without monetary policy independence or a freely floating exchange rate retaining discretionary conduct of monetary policy is distinctly on the decline. The trend seems to be clearly in favour of inter mediate regimes with country-specific features and with no fixed targets for the level of the exchange rate. 6.8 An impor tant feature of the conduct of monetary policy in recent years has been the foreign exchange market interventions either by the central bank on its own behalf or on behalf of public sector entities to ensure orderly conditions in markets and to fight extreme market turbulence (Box VI.1). Besides, EMEs, in general, have also been accumulating foreign exchange reserves as an insurance against shocks. It is a combination of these strategies which will guide monetar y authorities through the impossible trinity of a fixed exchange rate, open capital account and an independent monetary policy (Mohan, 2003). The debate on appropriate policies relating to foreign exchange markets has now converged around some generally accepted views: (i) exchange rates should be flexible and not fixed or pegged; (ii) there is continuing need for many emerging mar ket economies to be able to inter vene or manage exchange rates- to some degree - if movements are believed to be destablising in the short run; and

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Box VI.1 Exchange Rate Regimes and Monetary Policy in EMEs

Economic literature suggests that, at an aggregated level, the adoption of more flexible exchange rate regimes in Emerging Market (EM) countries has been associated with greater monetary policy independence. EM countries with exchange rate anchors are generally associated with pegged regimes. Here, the exchange rate serves as the nominal anchor or intermediate target of monetary policy. Around 27 per cent of the EM countr ies followed exchange rate anchors at the end of April 2006 (Table). When the exchange rate is directly targeted in order to achieve price stability, inter vention operations are unsterilised with inter-bank interest rates adjusting fully. In Singapore, while pursuing a target band for the exchange rate is the major monetary policy instrument, the central banks decision on whether to sterilise intervention is made with reference to conditions in the domestic markets 1 . In other regimes, where the exchange rate is not the monetar y policy anchor, any liquidity impact of intervention that would cause a change in monetary conditions is generally avoided. Most foreign exchange operations are sterilised. Interventions may also be used in coordination with changes in monetary policy, giving the latter a greater room for manoeuvre. For example, where a change in monetar y policy is unexpected, surprising the market can erode confidence or destabilise the market. Intervention may help minimise the costs of surprising financial markets, allowing monetary policy greater capacity to move ahead of market expectations. Around 17 per cent of the EM countries have adopted monetary aggregate target, most of which are associated with managed floating exchange rate regimes. In the case of a monetary aggregate target, the monetary authority uses its instruments to achieve a target growth rate for a monetary aggregate (reserve money, M1, M2, etc.), and the targeted aggregate becomes the nominal anchor or intermediate target of monetary policy. Around 43 per cent of the EM countries have adopted inflation targeting as their monetary policy regime, where changes in interest rates are the principal instruments of monetary policy. Inflation targeting involves the public announcement of medium-term numerical targets for inflation with an institutional commitment by the monetary authority to achieve these targets. Here, intervention
1

Table: Monetary Policy Framework - April 2006

Exchange Rate Anchor Bulgaria Ecuador Egypt Hong Kong Malaysia Venezuela Morocco Hungary Monetary Aggregate Target Argentina China Indonesia Tunisia Uruguay Inflation Target Brazil Chile Colombia Czech Republic Hungary Korea Mexico Peru Philippines Poland South Africa Thailand Turkey

Source : Annual Repor t on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions, 2006, IMF.

becomes important when movements in the exchange rate inconsistent with economic fundamentals threaten to push inflation outside the target band. However, where the exchange rate is responding appropriately to a real shock, it may be necessary either to acknowledge the expected departure from the inflation target for some period of time or to offset the shock by altering monetary policy. Most of the countries with inflation targeting as the monetary policy regime have adopted independent floating as the exchange rate policy. Empirical evidence suggests that most emerging economies that moved to a free float, introduced full-fledged inflation targeting only after a transition. There are other EM countries, viz., Algeria, India, Romania, and Russia, which have no explicitly stated nominal anchor, but rather monitor various indicators in the conduct of monetary policy. In some of the EM countries, coordinating these policies may be more difficult because foreign exchange operations are not the responsibility of the monetary authority. In such instances, the maintenance of a close dialogue between the respective authorities is important in avoiding any conflict arising between monetary and exchange rate policies.

EMEAP Study on Exchange Rate Regimes, June 2001.

number of Asian countries contributed to the regional financial crisis in 1997-98. Since the Asian financial crisis, several Asian economies have adopted more flexible exchange rate regimes except for Hong Kong, 213

which continued with its currency board arrangement, and China, which despite some adjustments, virtually maintained its exchange rate peg to the US dollar. After experiencing some

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Table 6.1: Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes, 1996 - April 2006 (Number of countries; end-December data)
Regime 1 I. Hard Pegs No separate legal tender Currency board arrangements II. Soft Pegs a. Conventional Pegged arrangements Pegs to Single Currency Pegs to Composite b. Intermediate Pegs Pegged within horizontal bands Crawling Pegs Crawling Bands III. Floating Regimes Managed Floating Independently Floating Note 1996 2 30 24 6 94 50 36 14 44 18 14 12 60 37 23 2001 3 47 40 7 58 42 32 10 16 5 6 5 81 43 38 2002 4 48 41 7 59 46 36 10 13 5 5 3 80 45 35 2003 5 48 41 7 59 46 38 8 13 4 6 3 80 46 34 2004 6 48 41 7 59 48 40 8 11 5 6 0 80 49 31 2005 7 48 41 7 61 49 44 5 12 6 6 0 78 52 26 2006 April 8 48 41 7 60 49 44 5 11 6 5 0 79 53 26

: To ensure comparability, all data are based on the current de facto methodology applied retroactively, unless otherwise specified.

Source : Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions, 2006, IMF and other sources.

transitional regime, Malaysia started pegging to the US dollar on September 1, 1998, but shifted over recently (July 2005) to a managed float regime. In contrast, Thailand, Indonesia, Korea, the Philippines and Taiwan have floated their currencies since the crisis, while adopting a monetary policy strategy based on inflation targeting. The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) continues to monitor the

Singapore dollar against an undisclosed basket of currencies of Singapores major trading partners and competitors. The Taiwanese government replaced its earlier managed foreign exchange rate by a floating rate in 1989, consequent to an increase in its trade surplus and the resulting rise in the foreign exchange reserves.

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Table 6.2: Emerging Market Countries: Transition to More Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes: 1990 - April 2006
Transition Type 1 Move towards a more flexible exchange rate regime Algeria Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Czech Republic Egypt India Indonesia Move towards a less flexible exchange rate regime China Malaysia Hong Kong Ecuador Venezuela Bulgaria Note : The Classification of the countries exchange rate regimes is based on the IMFs de facto classification and does not necessarily represent the views of the authorities. Country 2 Korea Mexico Peru Poland Romania Russia Slovakia Thailand Turkey Uruguay

Source : Annual Repor t on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions, IMF, various issues.

6.12 Most of the Latin American economies have a history of very high inflation rates. As such, inflation control has been a major objective of exchange rate policies of these countries in recent years. Starting from the end of 1994, a floating rate policy was maintained in Mexico, with the Bank of Mexico intervening in the foreign exchange market under exceptional circumstances to minimise volatility and ensure an orderly market. Chile adopted exchange rate flexibility in 1999, after experiencing an exchange rate band for the previous 17 years starting from 1982. After pursuing various forms of exchange rate pegs for more than four decades, which included occasional devaluation as also a change of the currency, Argentina had to finally move away from its currency board linked to the US dollar in January 2002. Brazil, after having a floating exchange rate regime with minor inter ventions in 1990s, adopted an independently floating exchange rate regime in the aftermath of its currency crisis in 19992.
2

6.13 An analysis of the complexities, challenges and vulnerabilities faced by EMEs in the conduct of exchange rate policy and managing volatilities in foreign exchange market reveal that the choice of a particular exchange rate regime alone cannot meet all the requirements. The emerging consensus is that for successful conduct of exchange rate policy, it is essential for countries to pursue sound and credible macroeconomic policies so as to avoid the build-up of major macro imbalances in the economy. Second, it is essential for EMEs to improve the flexibility of their product and factor markets in order to cope and adjust to shocks arising from the volatility of currency markets and swings in the terms of trade in world product markets. Third, it is crucial for EMEs to develop and strengthen their financial systems in order to enhance their resilience to shocks. In addition, a sound and efficient banking system together with deep and liquid capital market contributes to the efficient intermediation of financial flows. This could help prevent the emergence of vulnerabilities in the financial system by minimising unsound lending practices that lead to the build-up of excessive leveraging in the corporate sector and exposure to foreign currency borrowings. Fourth, countries would need to build regulatory and supervisory capabilities to keep pace with financial innovations and the emergence of new financial institutions activities, and new products and services, which have complicated the conduct of exchange rate policy. Fifth, policy makers need to promote greater disclosures and transparency. 6.14 Fur ther more, the perception about the volatility and flexibility in exchange rate is contextual. What may be perceived as flexible for some economies may turn out to be volatile for other economies. The level of development and preparedness of financial markets and their risktaking ability is crucial in this context (Reddy, 2007). If the level of development and preparedness of financial markets is low, a small movement in exchange rate could be interpreted as volatile, while even large movement in exchange rate in developed foreign exchange markets may not be seen as volatile. Thus, as financial markets develop in an emerging economy, the tolerance to volatility improves and hence what was once volatility would later become flexibility. A key issue, therefore, for the authorities is where and when to make policy adjustments, including the use of official intervention

Brazil had an adjustable band during 1995 to 1999 in a programme to control money creation.

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to help avoid substantial volatility and serious misalignments. 6.15 With gradual liberalisation and opening up of the capital account, capital flows to EMEs, par ticular ly to Asian economies increased significantly dur ing the 1990s, posing new challenges for central banks. Surges in capital flows and their associated volatility have implications for the conduct of monetary policy by central banks. The challenges facing central banks pertain to liquidity management, exchange rate and foreign exchange reser ve management. Central banks in these economies, thus, need to be equipped to deal with large capital flows. Since capital flows in some countries in recent years have been associated with various crises, there is also a rethinking about unfettered capital account liberalisation. 6.16 Intervention by most Asian central banks in foreign exchange markets has become necessary from time to time primarily because of the growing importance of capital flows in determining exchange rate movements in these economies as against trade deficits and economic growth, which were important in the earlier days. The latter does matter, but only over a period (Jalan, 2003). On a day-to-day basis, it is capital flows, which influence the exchange rate and interest rate arithmetic of financial markets. Capital movements have also rendered exchange rates significantly more volatile than before (Mohan, 2003). For the relatively open economies, this raises the issue of appropriate monetary policy response to sharp exchange rate movements since exchange rate volatility has had significant real effects in terms of fluctuations in employment and output and the distribution of activity between tradable and nontradable, especially in the developing countries, which depend on export performance as a key to the health of their balance of payments. In the fiercely competitive trading environment, countries seek to expand market shares aggressively by paring down margins. In such cases even a small change in exchange rates can develop into significant and persistent real effects. Thus, in order to benefit from international capital inflows, host countries need to pursue sound macroeconomic policies, develop strong institutions, and adopt appropriate regulatory frameworks for the stability of financial systems and sustained economic progress. 6.17 To sum up, while some flexibility in foreign exchange markets and exchange rate determination is desirable, excessive volatility can have adverse 216

impact on price discovery, expor t performance, sustainability of current account balance, and balance sheets in view of dollarisation. The EMEs experience has highlighted the need for developing countries to allow greater flexibility in exchange rates. However, the authorities also need to have the capacity to inter vene in foreign exchange markets in view of herd behaviour. With progressive opening of the emerging markets to financial flows, capital flows are playing an increasingly important role in exchange rate determination and are often reflected in higher exchange rate volatility. Against this backdrop, it would be appropriate to have a peep into the exchange rate regime followed in India and the evolution of foreign exchange market in the post independence period. II. INDIAN FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET: A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

Early Stages: 1947-1977 6.18 The evolution of Indias foreign exchange market may be viewed in line with the shifts in Indias exchange rate policies over the last few decades from a par value system to a basket-peg and further to a managed float exchange rate system. During the period from 1947 to 1971, India followed the par value system of exchange rate. Initially the rupees external par value was fixed at 4.15 grains of fine gold. The Reserve Bank maintained the par value of the rupee within the permitted margin of 1 per cent using pound sterling as the intervention currency. Since the sterling-dollar exchange rate was kept stable by the US monetary authority, the exchange rates of rupee in terms of gold as well as the dollar and other currencies were indirectly kept stable. The devaluation of rupee in September 1949 and June 1966 in terms of gold resulted in the reduction of the par value of rupee in terms of gold to 2.88 and 1.83 grains of fine gold, respectively. The exchange rate of the rupee remained unchanged between 1966 and 1971 (Chart VI.1). 6.19 Given the fixed exchange regime during this period, the foreign exchange market for all practical pur poses was defunct. Banks were required to undertake only cover operations and maintain a square or near square position at all times. The objective of exchange controls was primarily to regulate the demand for foreign exchange for various purposes, within the limit set by the available supply. The Foreign Exchange Regulation Act initially enacted in 1947 was placed on a permanent basis

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Formative Period: 1978-1992 6.21 The impetus to trading in the foreign exchange market in India came in 1978 when banks in India were allowed by the Reser ve Bank to undertake intra-day trading in foreign exchange and were required to comply with the stipulation of maintaining square or near square position only at the close of business hours each day. The extent of position which could be left uncovered overnight (the open position) as well as the limits up to which dealers could trade during the day were to be decided by the management of banks. The exchange rate of the rupee during this period was officially determined by the Reserve Bank in terms of a weighted basket of currencies of Indias major trading partners and the exchange rate regime was characterised by daily announcement by the Reserve Bank of its buying and selling rates to the Authorised Dealers (ADs) for under taking merchant transactions. The spread between the buying and the selling rates was 0.5 per cent and the market began to trade actively within this range. ADs were also permitted to trade in cross currencies (one convertible foreign currency versus another). However, no position in this regard could originate in overseas markets. 6.22 As opportunities to make profits began to emerge, major banks in India started quoting twoway prices against the rupee as well as in cross currencies and, gradually, trading volumes began to increase. This led to the adoption of widely different practices (some of them being irregular) and the need was felt for a comprehensive set of guidelines for operation of banks engaged in foreign exchange business. Accordingly, the Guidelines for Internal Control over Foreign Exchange Business, were framed for adoption by the banks in 1981. The foreign exchange market in India till the early 1990s, however, remained highly regulated with restrictions on external transactions, barriers to entr y, low liquidity and high transaction costs. The exchange rate during this period was managed mainly for facilitating Indias impor ts. The strict control on foreign exchange transactions through the Foreign Exchange Regulations Act (FERA) had resulted in one of the largest and most efficient parallel markets for foreign exchange in the world, i.e., the hawala (unofficial) market. 6.23 By the late 1980s and the early 1990s, it was recognised that both macroeconomic policy and

in 1957. In terms of the provisions of the Act, the Reserve Bank, and in certain cases, the Central Government controlled and regulated the dealings in foreign exchange payments outside India, export and import of currency notes and bullion, transfers of securities between residents and non-residents, acquisition of foreign securities, etc 3 . 6.20 With the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System in 1971 and the floatation of major currencies, the conduct of exchange rate policy posed a serious challenge to all central banks world wide as currency fluctuations opened up tremendous opportunities for market players to trade in currencies in a borderless market. In December 1971, the rupee was linked with pound sterling. Since sterling was fixed in terms of US dollar under the Smithsonian Agreement of 1971, the rupee also remained stable against dollar. In order to overcome the weaknesses associated with a single currency peg and to ensure stability of the exchange rate, the rupee, with effect from September 1975, was pegged to a basket of currencies. The currency selection and weights assigned were left to the discretion of the Reserve Bank. The currencies included in the basket as well as their relative weights were kept confidential in order to discourage speculation. It was around this time that banks in India became interested in trading in foreign exchange.

The Act was later replaced by a more comprehensive legislation, i.e., the Foreign Exchange Regulation Act, 1973.

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structural factors had contributed to balance of payments difficulties. Devaluations by Indias competitors had aggravated the situation. Although exports had recorded a higher growth during the second half of the 1980s (from about 4.3 per cent of GDP in 1987-88 to about 5.8 per cent of GDP in 1990-91), trade imbalances persisted at around 3 per cent of GDP. This combined with a precipitous fall in invisible receipts in the form of private remittances, travel and tourism earnings in the year 1990-91 led to further widening of current account deficit. The weaknesses in the external sector were accentuated by the Gulf crisis of 1990-91. As a result, the current account deficit widened to 3.2 per cent of GDP in 1990-91 and the capital flows also dr ied up necessitating the adoption of exceptional corrective steps. It was against this backdrop that India embarked on stabilisation and structural reforms in the early 1990s. Post-Reform Period: 1992 onwards 6.24 This phase was marked by wide ranging reform measures aimed at widening and deepening the foreign exchange market and liberalisation of exchange control regimes. A credible macroeconomic, str uctural and stabilisation programme encompassing trade, industry, foreign investment, exchange rate, public finance and the financial sector was put in place creating an environment conducive for the expansion of trade and investment. It was recognised that trade policies, exchange rate policies and industrial policies should form par t of an integrated policy framework to improve the overall productivity, competitiveness and efficiency of the economic system, in general, and the external sector, in particular. 6.25 As a stabilsation measure, a two step downward exchange rate adjustment by 9 per cent and 11 per cent between July 1 and 3, 1991 was resorted to counter the massive drawdown in the foreign exchange reserves, to instill confidence among investors and to improve domestic competitiveness. A two-step adjustment of exchange rate in July 1991 effectively brought to close the regime of a pegged exchange rate. After the Gulf crisis in 1990-91, the broad framework for reforms in the external sector was laid out in the Report of the High Level Committee on Balance of Payments (Chair man: Dr. C. Rangarajan). Following the recommendations of the Committee to move towards the market-determined exchange rate, the Liberalised Exchange Rate Management System (LERMS) was 218

put in place in March 1992 initially involving a dual exchange rate system. Under the LERMS, all foreign exchange receipts on current account transactions (expor ts, remittances, etc.) were required to be surrendered to the Authorised Dealers (ADs) in full. The rate of exchange for conversion of 60 per cent of the proceeds of these transactions was the market rate quoted by the ADs, while the remaining 40 per cent of the proceeds were converted at the Reserve Banks official rate. The ADs, in turn, were required to surrender these 40 per cent of their purchase of foreign currencies to the Reserve Bank. They were free to retain the balance 60 per cent of foreign exchange for selling in the free market for permissible transactions. The LERMS was essentially a transitional mechanism and a downward adjustment in the official exchange rate took place in early December 1992 and ultimate convergence of the dual rates was made effective from March 1, 1993, leading to the introduction of a market-determined exchange rate regime. 6.26 The dual exchange rate system was replaced by a unified exchange rate system in March 1993, whereby all foreign exchange receipts could be converted at market determined exchange rates. On unification of the exchange rates, the nominal exchange rate of the rupee against both the US dollar as also against a basket of currencies got adjusted lower, which almost nullified the impact of the previous inflation differential. The restrictions on a number of other current account transactions were relaxed. The unification of the exchange rate of the Indian rupee was an impor tant step towards current account convertibility, which was finally achieved in August 1994, when India accepted obligations under Article VIII of the Articles of Agreement of the IMF. 6.27 With the rupee becoming fully convertible on all current account transactions, the risk-bearing capacity of banks increased and foreign exchange trading volumes star ted r ising. This was supplemented by wide-ranging reforms undertaken by the Reser ve Bank in conjunction with the Government to remove market distor tions and deepen the foreign exchange market. The process has been marked by gradualism with measures being undertaken after extensive consultations with experts and market participants. The reform phase began with the Sodhani Committee (1994) which in its repor t submitted in 1995 made several recommendations to relax the regulations with a view to vitalising the foreign exchange market (Box VI.2).

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Box VI.2 Recommendations of the Expert Group on Foreign Exchange Markets in India
The Expert Group on Foreign Exchange Markets in India (Chairman: Shri O.P.Sodhani), which submitted its Report in 1995, identified various regulations inhibiting the growth of the market. The Group recommended that the corporates may be permitted to take a hedge upon declaring the existence of an exposure. The Group recommended that banks should be permitted to fix their own exchange position limits such as intra-day and overnight limits, subject to ensuring that the capital is provided/earmarked to the extent of 5 per cent of this limit based on internationally accepted guidelines. The Group also favoured fixation of Aggregate Gap Limit (AGL), which would also include rupee transactions, by the managements of the banks based on capital, risk taking capacity, etc. It recommended that banks be allowed to initiate cross currency positions abroad and to lend or borrow short-term funds up to six months, subject to a specified ceiling. Another impor tant suggestion related to allowing exporters to retain 100 per cent of their export earnings in any foreign currency with an Authorised Dealer (AD) in India, subject to liquidation of outstanding advances against export bills. The Group was also in favour of permitting ADs to determine the interest rates and maturity period in respect of FCNR (B) deposits. It recommended selective intervention by the Reserve Bank in the market so as to ensure greater orderliness in the market. In addition, the Group recommended various other shortterm and long-term measures to activate and facilitate functioning of markets and promote the development of a vibrant derivative market. Shor t-term measures recommended included exemption of domestic interbank borrowings from SLR/CRR requirements to facilitate development of the ter m money mar ket, cancellation and re-booking of currency options, permission to offer lower cost option strategies such as the range forward and ratio range forward and permitting ADs to offer any derivative products on a fully covered basis which can be freely used for their own asset liability management. As part of long-term measures, the Group suggested that the Reserve Bank should invite detailed proposals from banks for offering rupee-based derivatives, should refocus exchange control regulation and guidelines on risks rather than on products and frame a fresh set of guidelines for foreign exchange and derivatives risk management. As regards accounting and disclosure standards, the main recommendations included reviewing of policy procedures and transactions on an on-going basis by a risk control team independent of dealing and settlement functions, ensuring of uniform documentation and market practices by the Foreign Exchange Dealers Association of India (FEDAI) or any other body and development of accounting disclosure standards. Reference: Reser ve Bank of India. 1995. Repor t on Foreign Exchange Mar kets in India (Chair man : Shr i O.P Sodhani), June.

Most of the recommendations of the Sodhani Committee relating to the development of the foreign exchange market were implemented during the latter half of the 1990s. 6.28 In addition, several initiatives aimed at dismantling controls and providing an enabling environment to all entities engaged in foreign exchange transactions have been undertaken since the mid-1990s. The focus has been on developing the institutional framework and increasing the instruments for effective functioning, enhancing transparency and liberalising the conduct of foreign exchange business so as to move away from micro management of foreign exchange transactions to macro management of foreign exchange flows (Box VI.3). 6.29 An Internal Technical Group on the Foreign Exchange Markets (2005) set up by the Reserve Bank made various recommendations for further liberalisation of the extant regulations. Some of the 219

recommendations such as freedom to cancel and rebook forward contracts of any tenor, delegation of powers to ADs for grant of permission to corporates to hedge their exposure to commodity price risk in the international commodity exchanges/markets and extension of the trading hours of the inter-bank foreign exchange mar ket have since been implemented. 6.30 Along with these specific measures aimed at developing the foreign exchange market, measures towards liberalising the capital account were also implemented during the last decade, guided to a large extent since 1997 by the Report of the Committee on Capital Account Convertibility (Chairman: Shri S.S. Tarapore). Various reform measures since the early 1990s have had a profound effect on the market structure, depth, liquidity and efficiency of the Indian foreign exchange market as detailed in the following section.

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Box VI.3 Measures Initiated to Develop the Foreign Exchange Market in India
Institutional Framework The Foreign Exchange Regulation Act (FERA), 1973 was replaced by the market friendly Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA), 1999. The Reserve Bank delegated powers to authorised dealers (ADs) to release foreign exchange for a variety of purposes. In pursuance of the Sodhani Committees recommendations, the Clearing Corporation of India Limited (CCIL) was set up in 2001. To further the participatory process in a more holistic manner by taking into account all segments of the financial markets, the ambit of the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) on Money and Securities Markets set up by the Reserve Bank in 1999 was expanded in 2004 to include foreign exchange markets and the Committee was rechristened as TAC on Money, Gover nment Secur ities and Foreign Exchange Markets. exemption of inter-bank borrowings from statutory preemptions; and (iii) use derivative products for assetliability management. Participants in the foreign exchange market, including exporters, Indians investing abroad, and FIIs were permitted to avail forward cover and enter into swap transactions without any limit, subject to genuine underlying exposure. FIIs and NRIs were permitted to trade in exchangetraded der ivative contracts, subject to cer tain conditions. Foreign exchange earners were permitted to maintain foreign currency accounts. Residents were permitted to open such accounts within the general limit of US $ 25,000 per year, which was raised to US $ 50,000 per year in 2006, has further increased to US $ 1,00,000 since April 2007.

Disclosure and Transparency Initiatives Increase in Instruments in the Foreign Exchange Market The rupee-foreign currency swap market was allowed. Additional hedging instruments such as foreign currency-rupee options, cross-currency options, interest rate swaps (IRS) and currency swaps, caps/ collars and forward rate agreements (FRAs) were introduced. The Reserve Bank has been taking initiatives in putting in public domain all data relating to foreign exchange market transactions and operations. The Reserve Bank disseminates: (a) daily reference rate which is an indicative rate for market observers through its website, (b) data on exchange rates of rupee against some major currencies and foreign exchange reserves on a weekly basis in the Weekly Statistical Supplement (WSS), and (c) data on purchases and sales of foreign currency by the Reserve Bank in its Monthly Bulletin. The Reserve Bank has already achieved full disclosure of information pertaining to international reserves and foreign currency liquidity position under the Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS) of the IMF.

Liberalisation Measures Authorised dealers were permitted to initiate trading positions, borrow and invest in overseas market, subject to certain specifications and ratification by respective banks Boards. Banks were also permitted to (i) fix net overnight position limits and gap limits (with the Reserve Bank formally approving the limits); (ii) determine the interest rates (subject to a ceiling) and matur ity per iod of FCNR(B) deposits with

Reference: Mohan, Rakesh. 2006. Financial Sector Reforms and Monetary Policy: The Indian Experience. RBI Bulletin, July.

III. FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET STRUCTURE Market Segments 6.31 Foreign exchange market activity in most EMEs takes place onshore with many countries prohibiting onshore entities from undertaking the operations in offshore markets for their currencies. Spot market is the predominant form of foreign exchange mar ket segment in developing and emerging market countries. A common feature is the tendency of importers/exporters and other end-users 220

to look at exchange rate movements as a source of return without adopting appropriate risk management practices. This, at times, creates uneven supplydemand conditions, often based on news and views. Though most of the emerging market countries allow operations in the forward segment of the market, it is still underdeveloped in most of these economies. The lack of forward market development reflects many factors, including limited exchange rate flexibility, the de facto exchange rate insurance provided by the central bank through interventions, absence of a yield

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curve on which to base the forward prices and shallow money markets, in which market-making banks can hedge the maturity risks implicit in forward positions (Canales-Kriljenko, 2004). 6.32 Most foreign exchange markets in developing countries are either pure dealer markets or a combination of dealer and auction markets. In the dealer markets, some dealers become market makers and play a central role in the determination of exchange rates in flexible exchange rate regimes. Market makers set two-way exchange rates at which they are willing to deal with other dealers. The bidoffer spread reflects many factors, including the level of competition among market makers. In most of the EMEs, a code of conduct establishes the principles that guide the operations of the dealers in the foreign exchange mar kets. It is the central bank, or professional dealers association, which normally issues the code of conduct (Canales-Kriljenko, 2004). In auction mar kets, an auctioneer or auction mechanism allocates foreign exchange by matching supply and demand orders. In pure auction markets, order imbalances are cleared only by exchange rate adjustments. Pure auction market structures are, however, now rare and they generally prevail in combination with dealer markets. 6.33 The Indian foreign exchange market is a decentralised multiple dealership market comprising two segments the spot and the derivatives market. In the spot market, currencies are traded at the prevailing rates and the settlement or value date is two business days ahead. The two-day period gives adequate time for the parties to send instructions to debit and credit the appropriate bank accounts at home and abroad. The der ivatives mar ket encompasses forwards, swaps and options. Though forward contracts exist for maturities up to one year, majority of forward contracts are for one month, three months, or six months. Forward contracts for longer per iods are not as common because of the uncertainties involved and related pricing issues. A swap transaction in the foreign exchange market is a combination of a spot and a forward in the opposite direction. As in the case of other EMEs, the spot market is the dominant segment of the Indian foreign exchange market. The derivative segment of the foreign exchange market is assuming significance and the activity in this segment is gradually rising. Market Players 6.34 Players in the Indian market include (a) ADs, mostly banks who are authorised to deal in foreign 221

exchange, (b) foreign exchange brokers who act as intermediaries, and (c) customers individuals, corporates, who need foreign exchange for their transactions. Though customers are major players in the foreign exchange market, for all practical purposes they depend upon ADs and brokers. In the spot foreign exchange market, foreign exchange transactions were earlier dominated by brokers. Nevertheless, the situation has changed with the evolving market conditions, as now the transactions are dominated by ADs. Brokers continue to dominate the derivatives market. 6.35 The Reserve Bank intervenes in the market essentially to ensure orderly market conditions. The Reserve Bank undertakes sales/purchases of foreign currency in periods of excess demand/supply in the market. Foreign Exchange Dealers Association of India (FEDAI) plays a special role in the foreign exchange market for ensuring smooth and speedy growth of the foreign exchange market in all its aspects. All ADs are required to become members of the FEDAI and execute an undertaking to the effect that they would abide by the terms and conditions stipulated by the FEDAI for transacting foreign exchange business. The FEDAI is also the accrediting authority for the foreign exchange brokers in the interbank foreign exchange market. 6.36 The licences for ADs are issued to banks and other institutions, on their request, under Section 10(1) of the Foreign Exchange Management Act, 1999. ADs have been divided into different categories. All scheduled commercial banks, which include public sector banks, private sector banks and foreign banks operating in India, belong to category I of ADs. All upgraded full fledged money changers (FFMCs) and select regional rural banks (RRBs) and co-operative banks belong to category II of ADs. Select financial institutions such as EXIM Bank belong to category III of ADs. Currently, there are 86 (Category I) ADs operating in India out of which five are co-operative banks (Table 6.3). All merchant transactions in the foreign exchange market have to be necessarily undertaken directly through ADs. However, to provide depth and liquidity to the inter-bank segment, ADs have been permitted to utilise the services of brokers for better pr ice discover y in their inter-bank transactions. In order to further increase the size of the foreign exchange market and enable it to handle large flows, it is generally felt that more ADs should be encouraged to participate in the market making. The number of participants who can give two-way quotes also needs to be increased.

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Table 6.3: Authorised Dealers (Category-I) in the Foreign Exchange Market (As on March 31, 2007)
Category 1 Public Sector Banks Private Sector Banks Of which: Co-operative Banks Foreign Banks Total Source : Reserve Bank of India. Number 2 27 31 5 28 86

6.37 The customer segment of the foreign exchange market comprises major public sector units, cor porates and business entities with foreign exchange exposure. It is generally dominated by select large public sector units such as Indian Oil Corporation, ONGC, BHEL, SAIL, Maruti Udyog and also the Government of India (for defence and civil debt service) as also big private sector corporates like Reliance Group, Tata Group and Larsen and Toubro, among others. In recent years, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have emerged as major players in the foreign exchange market. Sources of Supply and Demand in the Foreign Exchange Market 6.38 The major sources of supply of foreign exchange in the Indian foreign exchange market are receipts on account of exports and invisibles in the current account and inflows in the capital account such as foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio investment, external commercial borrowings (ECB) and non-resident deposits. On the other hand, the demand for foreign exchange emanates from imports and invisible payments in the current account, amortisation of ECB (including shor t-term trade credits) and external aid, redemption of NRI deposits and outflows on account of direct and por tfolio investment. In India, the Government has no foreign currency account, and thus the external aid received by the Government comes directly to the reserves and the Reserve Bank releases the required rupee funds. Hence, this particular source of supply of foreign exchange is not routed through the market and as such does not impact the exchange rate. 6.39 During last five years, sources of supply and demand have changed significantly, with large transactions emanating from the capital account, unlike in the 1980s and the 1990s when current 222

account transactions dominated the foreign exchange market. The behaviour as well as the incentive structure of the participants who use the market for current account transactions differ significantly from those who use the foreign exchange market for capital account transactions. Besides, the change in these traditional determinants has also reflected itself in enhanced volatility in currency markets. It now appears that expectations and even momentary reactions to the news are often more important in determining fluctuations in capital flows and hence it serves to amplify exchange rate volatility (Mohan, 2006a). On many occasions, the pressure on exchange rate through increase in demand emanates from expectations based on cer tain news. Sometimes, such expectations are destabilising and often give rise to self-fulfilling speculative activities. Recognising this, increased emphasis is being placed on the management of capital account through management of foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, external commercial borrowings, nonresident deposits and capital outflows. However, there are occasions when large capital inflows as also large lumpiness in demand do take place, in spite of adhering to all the tools of management of capital account. The role of the Reserve Bank comes into focus during such times when it has to prevent the emergence of such destabilising expectations. In such cases, recourse is undertaken to direct purchase and sale of foreign currencies, sterilisation through open market operations, management of liquidity under liquidity adjustment facility (LAF), changes in reserve requirements and signaling through interest rate changes. In the last few years, despite large capital inflows, the rupee has shown two - way movements. Besides, the demand/supply situation is also affected by hedging activities through various instruments that have been made available to market participants to hedge their risks. Derivative Market Instruments 6.40 Derivatives play a crucial role in developing the foreign exchange market as they enable market players to hedge against underlying exposures and shape the overall risk profile of participants in the market. Banks in India have been increasingly using derivatives for managing risks and have also been offering these products to corporates. In India, various informal forms of derivatives contracts have existed for a long time though the formal introduction of a variety of instruments in the foreign exchange derivatives market started only in the post-reform period, especially since the mid-1990s. Cross-

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currency derivatives with the rupee as one leg were introduced with some restrictions in April 1997. Rupee-foreign exchange options were allowed in July 2003. The foreign exchange derivative products that are now available in Indian financial markets can be grouped into three broad segments, viz., forwards, options (foreign currency rupee options and cross currency options) and currency swaps (foreign currency rupee swaps and cross currency swaps) (Box VI.4). 6.41 Available data indicate that the most widely used derivative instruments are the forwards and foreign exchange swaps (rupee-dollar). Options have also been in use in the market for the last four years. However, their volumes are not significant and bidoffer spreads are quite wide, indicating that the market is relatively illiquid. Another major factor hindering the development of the options market is that corporates are not permitted to write/sell options. If corporates with underlying exposures are permitted to write/sell covered options, this would lead to increase in market volume and liquidity. Further, very few banks are market makers in this product and many deals are done on a back to back basis. For the product to reach

the farther segment of corporates such as small and medium enterprises (SME) sector, it is imperative that public sector banks develop the necessar y infrastructure and expertise to transact in options. In view of the growing complexity, diversity and volume of derivatives used by banks, an Internal Group was constituted by the Reserve Bank to review the existing guidelines on der ivatives and for mulate comprehensive guidelines on derivatives for banks (Box VI.5). 6.42 With regard to forward contracts and swaps, which are relatively more popular instruments in the Indian derivatives market, cancellation and rebooking of forward contracts and swaps in India have been regulated. Gradually, however, the Reserve Bank has been taking measures towards eliminating such regulations. The objective has been to ensure that excessive cancellation and rebooking do not add to the volatility of the rupee. At present, exposures arising on account of swaps, enabling a corporate to move from rupee to foreign currency liability (derived exposures), are not permitted to be hedged. While the market participants have preferred such a hedging facility, it is generally believed that equating derived

Box VI.4 Foreign Exchange Derivative Instruments in India Foreign Exchange Forwards
Authorised Dealers (ADs) (Category-I) are permitted to issue forward contracts to persons resident in India with crystallised foreign currency/foreign interest rate exposure and based on past performance/actual import-export turnover, as permitted by the Reserve Bank and to persons resident outside India with genuine currency exposure to the rupee, as permitted by the Reserve Bank. The residents in India generally hedge crystallised foreign currency/ foreign interest rate exposure or transform exposure from one currency to another permitted currency. Residents outside India enter into such contracts to hedge or transform permitted foreign currency exposure to the rupee, as permitted by the Reserve Bank. Foreign Currency Rupee Swap A person resident in India who has a long-term foreign currency or rupee liability is permitted to enter into such a swap transaction with ADs (Category-I) to hedge or transform exposure in foreign currency/foreign interest rate to rupee/rupee interest rate. Foreign Currency Rupee Options ADs (Category-I) approved by the Reserve Bank and ADs (Category-I) who are not market makers are allowed to sell foreign currency rupee options to their customers on a back-to-back basis, provided they have a capital to riskweighted assets ratio (CRAR) of 9 per cent or above. These options are used by customers who have genuine foreign currency exposures, as permitted by the Reserve Bank and by ADs (Category-I) for the purpose of hedging trading books and balance sheet exposures. Cross-Currency Options ADs (Category-I) are permitted to issue cross-currency options to a person resident in India with crystallised foreign currency exposure, as permitted by the Reserve Bank. The clients use this instrument to hedge or transform foreign currency exposure arising out of current account transactions. ADs use this instrument to cover the risks arising out of market-making in foreign currency rupee options as well as cross currency options, as permitted by the Reserve Bank. Cross-Currency Swaps Entities with borrowings in foreign currency under external commercial borrowing (ECB) are permitted to use cross currency swaps for transformation of and/or hedging foreign currency and interest rate risks. Use of this product in a structured product not conforming to the specific purposes is not permitted.

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Box VI.5 Derivatives Market: Comprehensive Guidelines

The draft comprehensive guidelines issued on December 11, 2006 cover broad generic principles for undertaking derivative transactions, permissible categories of derivative instruments, defining the role of market makers and users, suitability and appropriateness policies, risk management and corporate governance aspects, and internal control and audit. Subsequently, a modified version of these guidelines incorporating the comments of a wide spectrum of banks and market participants was issued by the Reserve Bank on April 20, 2007. These guidelines for accounting and valuation of derivatives, already circulated, are expected to provide a holistic framework for regulating the derivatives business of banks in future. Comprehensive guidelines contain four main modifications in the existing guidelines pertaining to instruments in foreign exchange derivatives. First, users such as importers and exporters having crystallised unhedged exposure in respect of current account transactions may write covered call and put options in both foreign currency/rupee and cross currency and receive premia. Second, market makers may write cross currency options. Third, market makers may offer plain vanilla American foreign currency rupee options. Fourthly, a person resident in India having foreign exchange or rupee liability is permitted to enter into a foreign currency rupee swap for hedging long-term exposure, i.e., exposure with residual maturity of three years or more. For risk management and corporate governance related to banks exposure to derivatives markets, basic principles of a prudent system have been specified in the comprehensive guidelines. These basic principles mainly entail (i) appropriate oversight by the board of directors and senior management; (ii) adequate risk management process that integrates prudent risk limits, sound measurement procedures and information systems, continuous risk monitoring and frequent management repor ting; and (iii) comprehensive internal controls and audit procedures. Regarding risk management, the guidelines explain identification and accurate measurement of various types of risks, by the market makers, involved in derivative activities. Accurate measurement of derivative related risks is necessary for proper monitoring and control and, therefore, all significant risks should be measured and integrated into an entity-wide risk management system. The guidelines further elucidate various risk limits, viz., market risk limits, credit limits, and liquidity limits, which serve as a means to control exposures to various risks associated with derivative activities. Apart from above mentioned principles, the guidelines also include the requirement of a mechanism for an independent monitoring of each entity and controlling of various risks in derivatives. Furthermore, the guidelines cover details pertaining to internal audit, prudential norms relating to derivatives, prudential limits on derivatives, and regulatory reporting and balance sheet disclosures. Reference: Reserve Bank of India. 2006. Comprehensive Guidelines on Derivatives Market.

exposure in foreign currency with actual borrowing in foreign currency would tantamount to violation of the basic premise for accessing the forward foreign exchange market in India, i.e., having an underlying foreign exchange exposure. 6.43 This feature (i.e., the role of an underlying transaction in the booking of a forward contract) is unique to the Indian derivatives market. The insistence on this requirement of underlying exposure has to be viewed against the backdrop of the then prevailing conditions when it was imposed. Corporates in India have been permitted increasing access to foreign currency funds since 1992. They were also accorded greater freedom to under take active hedging. However, recognising the relatively nascent stage of the foreign exchange market initially with the lack of capabilities to handle massive speculation, the underlying exposure criterion was imposed as a prerequisite. Exporters and importers were permitted to book forward contracts on the basis of a declaration of an exposure and on the basis of past performance. 224

Eligible limits were gradually raised to enable corporates greater flexibility. The limits are computed separately for export and import contracts. Documents are required to be furnished at the time of maturity of the contract. Contracts booked in excess of 25 per cent of the eligible limit had to be on a deliverable basis and could not be cancelled. This relaxation has proved very useful to exporters of software and other services since their projects are executed on the basis of master agreements with overseas buyers, which usually do not indicate the volumes and tenor of the expor ts (Repor t of Inter nal Group on Foreign Exchange Markets, 2005). In order to provide greater flexibility to exporters and importers, as announced in the Mid-term review of the Annual Policy 2006-07, this limit has been enhanced to 50 per cent. 6.44 Notwithstanding the initiatives that have been taken to enhance the flexibility for the corporates, the need is felt to review the underlying exposure criteria for booking a forward contract. The underlying exposure criteria enable corporates to hedge only a

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part of their exposures that arise on the basis of the physical volume of goods (exports/imports) to be delivered 4 . With the Indian economy getting increasingly globalised, corporates are also exposed to a variety of economic exposures associated with the types of foreign exchange/commodity risks/ exposures arising out of exchange rate fluctuations. At present, the domestic prices of commodities such as ferrous and non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, petro-chemicals, etc. are observed to exhibit world import parity. Given the two-way movement of the rupee against the US dollar and other currencies in recent years, it is necessar y for the producer/ consumer of such products to hedge their economic exposures to exchange rate fluctuation. Besides, price-fix hedges are also available for traders globally. They enable importers/exporters to lock into a future price for a commodity that they plan to import/export without actually having a cr ystallised physical exposure to the commodity. Traders may also be affected not only because of changes in rupee-dollar exchange rates but also because of changes in cross currency exchange rates. The requirement of underlying criteria is also often cited as one of the reasons for the lack of liquidity in some of the derivative products in India. Hence, a fixation on the underlying criteria as India globalises may hinder the full development of the forward mar ket. The requirement of past perfor mance/under lying exposures should be eliminated in a phased manner. This has also been the recommendation of both the committees on capital account convertibility. It is cited that this pre-requisite has been one of the factors contributing to the shift over time towards the nondeliverable forward (NDF) market at offshore locations to hedge such exposures since such requirement is not stipulated while booking a NDF contract. An attempt has been made recently provide importers the facility to partly hedge their economic exposure by permitting them to book forward contracts for their customs duty component. 6.45 The Annual Policy Statement for 2007-08, released on April 24, 2007 announced a host of measures to expand the range of hedging tools available to market participants as also facilitate dynamic hedging by residents. To hedge economic exposures, it has been proposed that ADs (CategoryI) may permit (a) domestic producers/users to hedge their price risk on aluminium, copper, lead, nickel
4

and zinc in international commodity exchanges, based on their underlying economic exposures; and (b) actual users of aviation turbine fuel (ATF) to hedge their economic exposures in the international commodity exchanges based on their domestic purchases. Authorised dealer banks may approach the Reser ve Bank for per mission on behalf of customers who are exposed to systemic international price risk, not covered otherwise. In order to facilitate dynamic hedging of foreign exchange exposures of exporters and importers of goods and services, it has been proposed that forward contracts booked in excess of 75 per cent of the eligible limits have to be on a deliverable basis and cannot be cancelled as against the existing limit of 50 per cent. With a view to giving greater flexibility to corporates with overseas direct investments, the forward contracts entered into for hedging overseas direct investments have been allowed to be cancelled and rebooked. In order to enable small and medium enterprises to hedge their foreign exchange exposures, it has been proposed to permit them to book forward contracts without underlying exposures or past records of exports and imports. Such contracts may be booked through ADs with whom the SMEs have credit facilities. They have also been allowed to freely cancel and rebook these contracts. In order to enable resident individuals to manage/hedge their foreign exchange exposures, it has been proposed to permit resident individuals to book forward contracts without production of underlying documents up to an annual limit of US $ 100,000, which can be freely cancelled and rebooked. Foreign Exchange Market Trading Platform 6.46 A variety of trading platforms are used by dealers in the EMEs for communicating and trading with one another on a bilateral basis. They conduct bilateral trades through telephones that are later confirmed by fax or telex. Some dealers also trade on electronic trading platforms that allow for bilateral conversations and dealing such as the Reuters Dealing 2000-1 and Dealing 3000 Spot systems. Bilateral conversations may also take place over networks provided by central banks and over private sector networks (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Korea and the Philippines). Reuters Dealing System has been the most popular trading platform in EMEs.

These are generally categorised as transactions exposure which is the extent to which the value of transactions already entered into is affected by exchange rate risk and contractual exposure that connotes the extent of exposures associated with contractual agreements.

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6.47 In the Indian foreign exchange market, spot trading takes place on four platforms, viz., FX CLEAR of the CCIL set up in August 2003, FX Direct that is a foreign exchange trading platform launched by IBS Forex (P) Ltd. in 2002 in collaboration with Financial Technologies (India) Ltd., and two other platforms by the Reuters - D2 platform and the Reuters Market Data System (RMDS) trading platform that have a minimum trading amount limit of US $ 1 million. FXCLEAR and FX Direct offer both real time order matching and negotiation modes for dealing. The Real Time Matching system enables real time matching of currency pairs for immediate and auto execution in both the spot and forward segments. In the Negotiated Dealing System, on the other hand, participant is free to choose and negotiate with his counter-par ty on all aspects of the transaction, thereby offering him flexibility to select the underlying currency as well as the terms of trade. These trading platforms cover the US dollar-Indian Rupee (USDINR) transactions and transactions in major cross currencies (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD etc.), though USD-INR constitutes the most of the foreign exchange transactions in terms of value. It is the FX CLEAR of the CCIL that remains the most widely used trading platform in India. This platform has been given to members free of cost. The main advantage of this platform is its offer of straight-through processing (STP) capabilities as it is linked to CCILs settlement platform. 6.48 In the forward segment of the Indian foreign exchange market, trading takes place both over the counter (OTC) and in an exchange traded market with brokers playing an impor tant role. The trading platforms available include FX CLEAR of the CCIL, RMDS from Reuters and FX Direct of the IBS. 6.49 In order to enhance the efficiency and transparency of the foreign exchange market and make it comparable with the markets of other EMEs, the Committee on Fuller Capital Account Convertibility (FCAC, 2006) has proposed the introduction of an electronic trading platform for the conduct of all foreign exchange transactions. Under such an arrangement, an authorised dealer will fix certain limits for its clients for trading in foreign exchange, based on a credit assessment of each client or deposit funds or designated securities as collateral. A number of small foreign exchange brokers could also be given access to the foreign exchange trading screen by the author ised dealers. In the case of electronic transaction, the buy/sell order for foreign exchange of an authorised dealers client first flows from the 226

clients terminal to that of the authorised dealers dealing system. If the clients order is within the exposure limit, the dealing system will automatically route the order to the central matching system. After the order gets matched, the relevant details of the matched order would be routed to the clients terminal through the trading system of the authorised dealer. Such a system would also have the advantage of the customer having the choice of trading with the bank quoting the best price and the Reserve Banks intervention in the foreign exchange market could remain anonymous. For very large trades, a screen negotiated deal system has been proposed by the Committee on Fuller Capital Account Convertibility. Risk Management and Settlement of Transactions in the Foreign Exchange Market 6.50 The foreign exchange market is characterised by constant changes and rapid innovations in trading methods and products. While the innovative products and ways of trading create new possibilities for profit, they also pose various kinds of risks to the market. Central banks all over the world, therefore, have become increasingly concerned of the scale of foreign exchange settlement risk and the importance of risk mitigation measures. Behind this growing awareness are several events in the past in which foreign exchange settlement risk might have resulted in systemic risk in global financial markets, including the failure of Bankhaus Herstatt in 1974 and the closure of BCCI SA in 1991. 6.51 The foreign exchange settlement risk arises because the delivery of the two currencies involved in a trade usually occurs in two different countries, which, in many cases are located in different time zones. This risk is of particular concern to the central banks given the large values involved in settling foreign exchange transactions and the resulting potential for systemic risk. Most of the banks in the EMEs use some form of methodology for measuring the foreign exchange settlement exposure. Many of these banks use the single day method, in which the exposure is measured as being equal to all foreign exchange receipts that are due on the day. Some institutions use a multiple day approach for measuring risk. Most of the banks in EMEs use some form of individual counter par ty limit to manage their exposures. These limits are often applied to the global operations of the institution. These limits are sometimes monitored by banks on a regular basis. In certain cases, there are separate limits for foreign exchange settlement exposures, while in other cases,

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limits for aggregate settlement exposures are created through a range of instruments. Bilateral obligation netting, in jurisdictions where it is legally certain, is an important way for trade counterparties to mitigate the foreign exchange settlement risk. This process allows trade counterpar ties to offset their gross settlement obligations to each other in the currencies they have traded and settle these obligations with the payment of a single net amount in each currency. 6.52 Several emerging markets in recent years have implemented domestic real time gross settlement (RTGS) systems for the settlement of highvalue and time critical payments to settle the domestic leg of foreign exchange transactions. Apart from risk reduction, these initiatives enable participants to actively manage the time at which they irrevocably pay away when selling the domestic currency, and reconcile final receipt when purchasing the domestic currency. Participants, therefore, are able to reduce the duration of the foreign exchange settlement risk. 6.53 Recognising the systemic impact of foreign exchange settlement risk, an important element in the infrastructure for the efficient functioning of the Indian foreign exchange market has been the clearing and settlement of inter-bank USD-INR transactions. In pursuance of the recommendations of the Sodhani Committee, the Reserve Bank had set up the Clearing Corporation of India Ltd. (CCIL) in 2001 to mitigate risks in the Indian financial markets. The CCIL commenced settlement of foreign exchange operations for inter-bank USD-INR spot and forward trades from November 8, 2002 and for inter-bank USD-INR cash and tom trades from February 5, 2004. The CCIL undertakes settlement of foreign exchange trades on a multilateral net basis through a process of novation and all spot, cash and tom transactions are guaranteed for settlement from the trade date. Every eligible foreign exchange contract entered between members gets novated or replaced by two new contracts between the CCIL and each of the two parties, respectively. Following the multilateral netting procedure, the net amount payable to, or receivable from, the CCIL in each currency is arrived at, member-wise. The Rupee leg is settled through the members current accounts with the Reserve Bank and the USD leg through CCILs account with the settlement bank at New York. The CCIL sets limits for each member bank on the basis of certain parameters such as members credit rating, net worth, asset value and management quality. The CCIL settled over 900,000 deals for a gross volume of US $ 1,180 billion in 2005-06. The CCIL has consistently endeavoured

to add value to the services and has gradually brought the entire gamut of foreign exchange transactions under its purview. Intermediation, by the CCIL thus, provides its members the benefits of risk mitigation, improved efficiency, lower operational cost and easier reconciliation of accounts with correspondents. 6.54 An issue related to the guaranteed settlement of transactions by the CCIL has been the extension of this facility to all forward trades as well. Member banks currently encounter problems in terms of huge outstanding foreign exchange exposures in their books and this comes in the way of their doing more trades in the market. Risks on such huge outstanding trades were found to be very high and so were the capital requirements for supporting such trades. Hence, many member banks have expressed their desire in several fora that the CCIL should extend its guarantee to these forward trades from the trade date itself which could lead to significant increase in the liquidity and depth in the forward market. The risks that banks today carry in their books on account of large outstanding forward positions will also be significantly reduced (Gopinath, 2005). This has also been one of the recommendations of the Committee on Fuller Capital Account Convertibility. 6.55 Apart from managing the foreign exchange settlement risk, participants also need to manage market risk, liquidity risk, credit risk and operational risk efficiently to avoid future losses. As per the guidelines framed by the Reserve Bank for banks to manage risk in the inter-bank foreign exchange dealings and exposure in derivative markets as market makers, the boards of directors of ADs (category-I) are required to frame an appropriate policy and fix suitable limits for operations in the foreign exchange market. The net overnight open exchange position and the aggregate gap limits need to be approved by the Reser ve Bank. The open position is generally measured separately for each foreign currency consisting of the net spot position, the net forward position, and the net options position. Various limits for exposure, viz., overnight, daylight, stop loss, gap limit, credit limit, value at risk (VaR), etc., for foreign exchange transactions by banks are fixed. Within the contour of these limits, front office of the treasury of ADs transacts in the foreign exchange market for customers and own proprietary requirements. These exposures are accounted, confirmed and settled by back office, while mid-office evaluates the profit and monitors adherence to risk limits on a continuous basis. In the case of market risk, most banks use a combination of measurement techniques including

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VaR models. The credit risk is generally measured and managed by most banks on an aggregate counter-party basis so as to include all exposures in the underlying spot and derivative markets. Some banks also monitor country risk through cross-border country risk exposure limits. Liquidity risk is generally estimated by monitoring asset liability profile in various currencies in various buckets and monitoring currency-wise gaps in various buckets. Banks also track balances to be maintained on a daily basis in Nostro accounts, remittances and committed foreign currency term loans while monitoring liquidity risk. 6.56 To sum up, the foreign exchange market str ucture in India has undergone substantial transformation from the early 1990s. The market participants have become diversified and there are several instruments available to manage their risks. Sources of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market have also changed in line with the shifts in the relative impor tance in balance of payments from current to capital account. There has also been considerable improvement in the market infrastructure in terms of trading platforms and settlement mechanisms. Trading in Indian foreign exchange market is largely concentrated in the spot segment even as volumes in the derivatives segment are on the rise. Some of the issues that need attention to further improve the activity in the derivatives segment include flexibility in the use of various instr uments, enhancing the knowledge and understanding the nature of r isk involved in transacting the derivative products, reviewing the role of underlying in booking forward contracts and guaranteed settlements of forwards. Besides, market players would need to acquire the necessary expertise to use different kinds of instruments and manage the risks involved. IV. FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET: AN ASSESSMENT 6.57 The continuous improvement in mar ket infrastructure has had its impact in terms of enhanced depth, liquidity and efficiency of the foreign exchange market. The turnover in the Indian foreign exchange market has grown significantly in both the spot and derivatives segments in the recent past. Along with the increase in onshore turnover, activity in the offshore market has also assumed importance. With the gradual opening up of the capital account, the process of price discovery in the Indian foreign exchange market has improved as reflected in the bid-ask spread and forward premia behaviour. 228

Foreign Exchange Market Turnover 6.58 As per the Triennial Central Bank Survey by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) on Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity, global foreign exchange market activity rose markedly between 2001 and 2004 (Table 6.4). The strong growth in turnover may be attributed to two related factors. First, the presence of clear trends and higher volatility in foreign exchange markets between 2001 and 2004 led to trading momentum, where investors took large positions in currencies that followed persistent appreciating trends. Second, positive interest rate differentials encouraged the so-called carry trading, i.e., investments in high interest rate currencies financed by positions in low interest rate currencies. The growth in outright forwards between 2001 and 2004 reflects heightened interest in hedging. Within the EM countries, traditional foreign exchange trading in Asian currencies generally recorded much faster growth than the global total between 2001 and 2004. Growth rates in turnover for Chinese renminbi, Indian rupee, Indonesian rupiah, Korean won and new Taiwanese dollar exceeded 100 per cent between April 2001 and April 2004 (Table 6.5). Despite significant growth in the foreign exchange market turnover, the share of most of the EMEs in total global turnover, however, continued to remain low. 6.59 The Indian foreign exchange market has grown manifold over the last several years. The daily average turnover impressed a substantial pick up from about US $ 5 billion during 1997-98 to US $ 18 billion during 2005-06. The turnover has risen considerably to US $ 23 billion during 2006-07 (up to February 2007) with the daily turnover crossing US $ 35 billion on certain days during October and November 2006. The inter-bank to merchant turnover ratio has halved from 5.2 during 1997-98 to 2.6 during 2005-06, Table 6.4: Global Foreign Exchange Market Turnover (Daily averages in April, in billions of US dollars)
Item 1 Spot Transactions Outright Forwards Foreign Exchange Swaps Estimated Gaps in Reporting Total Traditional Turnover Memo: Turnover at April 2004 Exchange Rates 1989 2 317 27 190 56 590 1998 3 2001 4 2004 5

568 387 621 128 131 208 734 656 944 60 26 107 1,490 1,200 1,880

650

1,590 1,380 1,880

Source : Triennial Central Bank Survey on Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity, Bank for International Settlement, 2005.

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Table 6.5: Traditional Foreign Exchange Market Turnover in EM Currencies - April 2004 (Daily averages, in millions of US dollars)
Spot Forward Swap Total Growth since 2001 (%) 6 530 21 114 283 117 7 52 32 129 88

1 Chinese renminbi Hong Kong dollar Indian rupee Indonesian rupiah Korean won Malaysian ringgit Philippine peso Singapore dollar New Taiwan dollar Thai baht Memo: US dollar Euro Pound sterling Japanese yen

2 992 6,827 2,877 760 10,510 351 345 5,177 3,607 1,333

3 811 2,221 1,531 267 6,048 237 232 1,242 2,798 490

4 9 24,133 1,658 1,025 4,592 399 188 10,591 856 1,669

5 1,812 33,181 6,066 2,051 21,151 987 765 17,010 7,261 3,492

528,639 170,357 874,083 1,573,080 272,887 88,243 298,231 659,361 82,839 31,338 185,241 299,417 130,382 47,135 181,715 359,231

48 49 93 35

Source : BIS Quarterly Review, March 2005.

reflecting the growing participation in the merchant segment of the foreign exchange market (Table 6.6 and Chart VI.2). Mumbai alone accounts for almost 80 per cent of the foreign exchange turnover. 6.60 Turnover in the foreign exchange market was 6.6 times of the size of Indias balance of payments during 2005-06 as compared with 5.4 times in 2000-01 (Table 6.7). With the deepening of the foreign exchange market and increased turnover, income of commercial banks through treasury operations has increased considerably. Profit from foreign exchange transactions accounted for more than 20 per cent of total profits of the scheduled commercial banks during 2004-05 and 2005-06 (Chart VI.3). Table 6.6: Indicators of Indian Foreign Exchange Market Activity
(US $ billion) Item 1 1997-1998 2 2005-2006 3 4,413 18 5 13 2.6 50.5 19.0 30.5 2006-2007@ 4 5,734 23 7 18 2.6 52.4 18.0 29.6

6.61 The bank group-wise distribution of the turnover (as a proportion of the total turnover for the respective year) reveals that foreign banks account for the largest share in total turnover, though their share declined from 59 per cent in 1996-97 to 42 per cent during 2005-06 (Table 6.8). The share of public and private sector banks increased correspondingly. Turnover of some of the new private sector banks, in particular, increased sharply during this period. 6.62 The spot market remains the most important foreign exchange market segment accounting for 51 per cent of the total turnover. Its share, however, has declined marginally in recent years due to a pick up in the turnover in derivative segment (Chart VI.4). Table 6.7: Relative Size of the Foreign Exchange Market in India
Year Foreign Exchange MarketAnnual Turnover (US $ billion) 2 1,387 1,421 1,560 2,118 2,892 4,413 Balance of Payment Size (US $ billion) 3 258 237 267 362 481 664 Foreign Currency Assets of RBI* (US $ billion) 4 40 51 72 107 136 145 Col. 2 over Col. 3 Col. 2 over Col. 4

Total Annual Turnover 1,306 Average Daily Turnover 5 Average Daily Merchant Turnover 1 Average Daily Inter-bank Turnover 4 Inter-bank to Merchant ratio 5.2 Spot/Total Turnover (%) 51.6 Forward/Total Turnover (%) 12.0 Swap/Total Turnover (%) 36.4 @ : April-February. Source : Reserve Bank of India.

1 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

5 5.4 6.0 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.6

6 35 28 22 20 21 30

* As at end-March. Source : Reserve Bank of India.

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REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

6.63 As mentioned ear lier, the spot mar ket comprises inter-bank and retail/merchant segments. It is the inter-bank transactions that dominate the spot segment. The merchant segment of the spot market is generally dominated by the Government of India, select large public sector units, such as Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), and the FIIs. As the foreign exchange demand on account of public sector units and the Government tends to be lumpy and uneven, resultant demand-supply mismatches entail occasional pressures on the foreign exchange market, warranting market interventions by the Reserve Bank. However, in recent years, a two-way movement in the exchange rate has been observed, partly on account of flows by FIIs. This, in turn, provided flexibility in the operation of ADs and suggests an increase in depth and liquidity in the market. 6.64 In the derivatives market, foreign exchange swaps account for the largest share of the total Table 6.8: Foreign Exchange Turnover Bank Group-wise Share
(in per cent) Category of Banks 1 Public Sector Private Sector Foreign Total 1996-97 Merchant 2 8 2 7 17 Interbank 3 21 10 52 83 Total 4 29 12 59 100 2005-06 Merchant 5 6 9 12 27 Interbank 6 26 17 30 73 Total 7 32 26 42 100

derivatives turnover in India, followed by forwards and options (Table 6.9). Options have remained insignificant despite being in existence for four years. With restrictions on the issue of foreign exchange swaps and options by corporates in India, the turnover in these segments (swap and options) essentially reflects inter-bank transactions. 6.65 The forward segment of the derivatives market has both merchant and inter-bank participants. However, unlike in the spot segment, it is the merchant turnover that accounts for the larger share in the forward market (Char t VI.5). The inter-bank to merchant turnover ratio that was close to unity till 2000, declined sharply thereafter mainly due to the faster growth of the merchant turnover, reflecting growing trade activity, robust corporate performance and increased liberalisation. 6.66 Against the backdrop of the substantial increase in turnover in the Indian foreign exchange market, it is useful to explore the factors determining Table 6.9: Derivatives Turnover in India
(US $ billion) Item 1 Forward Swap Options@ 2000-01 2 163 565 0 2005-06 3 839 1,344 11 2006-07 (Up to February 2007) 4 1,035 1,695 38

Source : Reserve Bank of India.

@ : Rough estimate. Source : Reserve Bank of India.

230

FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

the trading volume. The limited available literature suggests that the expected turnover increases with the increase in number of active traders, information flows and amount of disagreement in the market and that it may change over time (Tauchen and Pitts, 1983). Evidence in the Indian context reveals that growth in number of transactions, as expected, results in an increase in the trading volume in the foreign exchange market 5 . The coefficient is, however, low reflecting the relative stability of the market implying that large fluctuations in number of deals may not have substantial impact on market turnover. Apart from the number of trades in the market, the trading volume is also determined by a host of other factors, viz. - the number of instr uments available to mar ket
5

participants, depth of the market and the increasing openness of the economy, which have not been captured in the analysis. 6.67 The information about the future trading volume is useful for determining the spread of the exchange rates so as to reduce transaction costs and enable better price discovery. An efficient price discovery mechanism necessitates the study of price volatility and trade volume relationship. Empirical analysis6 of the relationship between the changes in the trading volume and exchange rate return reveals that the variation in trade volume could lead to increase in the flexibility in the movement of exchange rates 7 , which have been observed in the last few

The ARDL approach to cointegration analysis was applied on the data from Clearing Corporation of India Ltd (CCIL) for the period November 12, 2002 through December 5, 2006, since the foreign exchange volumes variable was found to be non-stationary I(1) while the number of deals variable was stationary I(0) in level form. They were found to share a long-run relationship, based on which the following error correction version of ARDL (4, 4) with lag lengths selected by Schwarz Bayesian Criterion was estimated. VOL = -0.14C 0.45VOLt-1 0.24VOLt2 0.13VOLt-3 (-3.37) (-13.02) * (-6.58)* (-4.17) * + 0.19NDt1 + 0.10NDt2 + 0.06NDt3 + 0.44ND - 0.11t-1 (11.24)* (6.08) * (3.97)* (136.49) * (-5.40)* 2 R = 0.97 DW = 2.03

The figures in the brackets are t-values; *denote significance at 1 per cent level. denotes the first difference of the respective variable; C is the intercept, VOL and ND are the log of foreign exchange trading volume in crore of rupees and number of deals per day respectively. Trading volume is the volume of transaction in the cash, tom, spot and forward segments.
6

In financial market, the volatility is time variant. Therefore, to handle the behaviour of the data, it is more appropriate to apply ARCH type of model instead of any constant variance approach. GARCH (1,1) framework was used to study this relationship. The presence of ARCH effect in the exchange rate return series was tested before estimating GARCH(1,1) model. The mean equation of GARCH(1,1) is an ARMA(2,2) model where the coefficients are found significant while estimating through OLS. The GARCH(1,1) is estimated for the period November 12, 2002 to December 5, 2006 and variables are Rupees/Dollar return and total trading volume in cash, tom, spot and forward segments. The estimated equation is: ht = 0.01 + 0.01VOL + 0.54ht 1 + 0.38t 1 (5.07)* (10.29)* (6.65)* (4.81)* 2 # # R = 0.004; DW=1.93; LM(8) = 6.28(0.62) ; Wald Stat = 2.23(0.14) ; Log likelihood = 159.15; AIC = -0.32. h : the time-varying volatility of exchange rate return; represent the conditional error terms and VOL is the first difference of log trading volume. Figures in the brackets are t-values; *denotes significance at 1 per cent level; # : figures in the respective brackets are p-values.

231

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

years. Thus, increase in trading volume and the consequent increase in flexibility implying two-way expectations is healthy for the development of the market. Market Efficiency 6.68 With the exchange rate primarily getting determined by the forces of demand and supply, the issue of foreign exchange market efficiency has assumed importance in India in recent years. Markets are perceived as efficient when market prices reflect all available information, so that it is not possible for any trader to earn excess profits in a systematic manner. The efficiency/liquidity of the foreign exchange market is often gauged in terms of bid-ask spread. The bid-ask spread reflects the transaction and operating costs involved in the transaction of the currency. These costs include phone bills, cable charges, book-keeping expenses and trader salaries, among others. In the spot segment, it may also include the risks involved in holding the foreign exchange. These costs/bid-ask spread are expected to decline with the increase in the volume of transactions in the currency. The finance theory identifies three basic sources of bid-ask spreads: (a) order processing costs, (b) inventory holding costs, and (c) information costs of market making, and each one is influenced by trading volume in a particular manner (Hartmann, 1999). The low and stable bid-ask spread in the foreign exchange market, therefore, indicates that market is efficient with underlying low volatility, high liquidity and less of information asymmetry. 6.69 The spread in the Indian foreign exchange market has declined overtime and is very low at present. In India, the normal spot market quote has a spread of 0.25 of a paisa to 1 paise, while swap quotes are available at 1 to 2 paise spread. A closer look at the bid-ask spread in the rupee-US dollar spot market reveals that during the initial phase of market development (i.e., till the mid-1990s), the spread was high and volatile due to a thin market with unidirectional behavior of market participants (Chart VI.6). In the subsequent period, with relatively deep and liquid markets, the bid-ask spread declined
8

sharply and has remained low and stable, reflecting efficiency gains. 6.70 It was empirically observed that expected volatility of the rupee-dollar exchange rate could impact the spread which increases with the increase in volatility8. However, the trading volume has negligible impact on the exchange rate spread. The intercept of the estimated equation is highly significant showing the flatness of the spread in the Indian foreign exchange market. The flat and low spread can be attributed to lower volatility in the foreign exchange market. Behaviour of Forward Premia 6.71 An important aspect of functioning of the foreign exchange market relates to the behaviour of forward premia in terms of its linkages with economic fundamentals such as interest rates and its ability to predict future spot rates. An analysis of forward premia, essentially reflects whether a currency is at a premium/discount with respect to other reserve currencies. Forward premia is particularly important for importers and exporters who need to hedge their risks to foreign currency. The forward market in India

Using the rupee-dollar bid-ask absolute spread (SPD), 1 month ATM rupee-dollar option price volatility (IV) as a proxy for expected volatility and daily turnover (VOL) in the foreign exchange market (turnover in spot, forward and swap), the OLS equation is estimated for the period July 7, 2003 to August 31, 2006. The spread and turnover/trading volume are in log forms.

log SPD = -4.56 0.01 log VOL + 3.29 IV (-31.63)* (-0.94) (5.18)* 2 R = 0.15; DW = 2.10 Figures in the brackets are t-values and *denotes significance at 1 per cent level.

232

FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

is active up to six months where two-way quotes are available. In recent years, however, the segment up to one year maturity has also gained liquidity. The link between the forward premia and interest rate differential seems to work largely through leads and lags. The integration between the domestic market and the overseas market is more often through the forward market. The integration has been facilitated by allowing ADs to borrow from their overseas offices or correspondents and invest funds in overseas money market. The forward segment is also influenced by a number of other factors: (i) impor ters and exporters availing or extending credit to overseas parties (importers can move between sight payment and 180 days usance depending on the global interest rate, domestic interest rate and expectations on future spot rate); (ii) importers switching between rupee credit and foreign currency credit; (iii) the decision to hedge or not to hedge the exposure, depending on expectations and forward premia; (iv) exporters delaying payments or advance receivables, subject to conditions on repatr iation and surrender, depending upon the interest on rupee credit, the premia and interest rate overseas; and (v) availing of pre/post-shipment credit in foreign exchange and switching between rupee and foreign currency credit. 6.72 With the opening up of the capital account, the forward premia is getting gradually aligned with the interest rate differential reflecting growing market efficiency. While free movement in capital account is only a necessary condition for full development of, the forward and other foreign exchange derivatives markets, the sufficient condition is provided by a deep and liquid money market with a well-defined yield curve. 6.73 In the post-liberalisation phase, the forward premia of the US dollar vis--vis Indian rupee has generally remained high indicating that rupee was at a discount to the US dollar. In recent times, however, reflecting the build-up of foreign exchange reserves, the strong capital flows and the confidence in the Indian economy, the forward premia has come down sharply from the peak reached in 1995-96. For a short period in 2003-04, the forward premia turned negative defying the traditional theory according to which the currency of a country with higher inflation rate/interest rate should be at a discount vis--vis other countrys currency. This was the period when Indian rupee was gaining strength against the US dollar, which depreciated against most other currencies. The period since 2002 has, in fact, witnessed sharp co-movement of forward premia and exchange rate with the premia 233

exhibiting a decline, whenever rupee appreciated (Chart VI.7). 6.74 Forward premia is also affected by movements in call rates, reflecting the principle of interest-rate parity. Tightening of liquidity in the domestic market immediately pushes up call rates, which in turn, pushes up forward premia. Whenever liquidity in the domestic market is tightened, banks and other market players sell the US dollar in cash or spot market and buy in the forward market pushing forward premia upward (Chart VI.8).

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

6.75 Several studies have analysed the behaviour of forward premia and have attempted to explore the factors that determine it in the Indian foreign exchange market. Forward premia of Indian rupee is driven to a large extent by the interest rate differential in the interbank market of the two economies, FII flows, current account balance as well as changes in exchange rates of US dollar vis--vis Indian rupee (Sharma and Mitra, 2006). Another study has observed that the forward premia for the period 1997 to 2002 systemically exceeded rupee depreciation, implying that there has been an asymmetric advantage to sellers of dollar forwards (Ranade and Kapur, 2003). 6.76 One way of assessing market efficiency is to observe the forward rate behaviour as to whether forward rates are unbiased predictor of future spot rates. For the period April 1993 to January 1998, it was found that forward rates cannot effectively predict the future spot rates and there is no co-integration between forward rates and future spot rates (Joshi and Saggar, 1998). An analysis using the data for the more recent period during January 1995 to December 2006 reveals that the ability of forward rates in correctly predicting the future spot rates has improved over time and that there is some co-integrating relationship between the forward rate and the future spot rate 9 . This could be attributed to the gradual opening up of the Indian economy, particularly in the capital account, together with other reform initiatives undertaken to develop the forward market such as introduction of new instruments, trading platforms and more players. Non-Deliverable Forward (NDF) Market 6.77 In addition to the onshore spot and derivatives market, another segment that is fast picking up is the
9

offshore non deliverable forward (NDF) market. NDFs are synthetic foreign currency forward contracts on non-convertible or restricted currencies traded over the counter outside the direct jurisdiction of the respective national authorities of restricted currencies. The demand for NDFs arises principally out of regulatory and liquidity constraint issues of the underlying currencies. These derivatives allow multinational corporations, portfolio investors, hedge funds and proprietary foreign exchange accounts of commercial and investment banks to hedge or take speculative positions in local currencies. While the multinational companies deal in both the long and short end of the market, the short end of the market is particularly dominated by the hedge funds. The pricing is influenced by a combination of factors such as interest rate differential between the two currencies, supply and demand, future spot expectations, foreign exchange regime and central bank policies. The settlement of the transaction is not by delivering the underlying pair of currencies, but by making a net payment in a convertible currency equal to the difference between the agreed forward exchange rate and the subsequent spot rate. These are generally settled in US dollar. The currencies that are traded in the Asian NDF markets are Chinese yuan, Korean won, Taiwanese dollar, Philippine peso, Indonesian rupiah, Malaysian ringgit, Thai baht, Pakistani rupee and Indian rupee. The market is very liquid in Korean won, Chinese yuan and Taiwanese dollar followed by Indian rupee (Ma et al, 2004). 6.78 The NDF market in Indian rupee (INR NDF) has been in existence for over the last 10 years or so, reflecting onshore exchange controls and regulations. However, liquidity in the NDF market has improved since the late 1990s as foreign residents who had genuine exposure to the Indian rupee but were unable

To study the relationship between future spot rate and forward rate, the following equation was estimated: st+1 = + t1m + t Where st+1 is 1 month ahead (log) rupee-dollar future spot rate at time t, t1m is 1 month (log) forward rate and t is the residual term. For the forward rate to be unbiased predictor of future spot rate, the hypothesis test could be = 0 and = 1 and a white noise error term. The long run relationship between them is studied using cointegration between future spot rate and forward rate which states that one can predict one of them with the information of the other. st+1 = 0.04 + 0.99 t1m (1.25) (107.41)* 2 R = 0.99; DW = 1.45; F stat (for = 0 and = 1) = 1.83 (0.16)# ADF = -8.94 (0.00)# Figures in brackets are t-values; * denotes significance at 1 per cent level; #: figures in the respective brackets are p-values. The results indicate that one month forward rate is an unbiased predictor of 1 month ahead future spot rate as the joint hypothesis of = 0 and = 1 is not rejected and the error term follows first order autocorrelation. Further, both the rates are cointegrated as reflected by the ADF statistics of the error term.

234

FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

to adequately hedge their exposure in the domestic market due to prevailing controls participated in the NDF market. However with the gradual relaxation of exchange controls, reasonable hedging facilities are available to offshore non-residents who have exposures to the Indian rupee, especially when compared with the hedging facilities provided by some other competing Asian countries. Besides, the INR NDF market also derives its liquidity from (i) non-residents wishing to speculate on the Indian rupee without any exposure to the country; and (ii) arbitrageurs who try to exploit the differentials in the prices in the two markets10. 6.79 The INR NDFs have grown in volume and depth over the years. While these are largely concentrated in Singapore, they are also in existence in London and New York. In the wake of the Asian crisis, offshore implied interest rates were higher than onshore rates, reflecting ongoing depreciation pressure in the offshore trading during that period. Since 2003, however, offshore expectation of further rupee appreciation has driven offshore implied interest rates below onshore rates. Though an accurate assessment of the volumes is difficult, estimated that the daily volumes for INR NDF hovered around US $ 100 million in 2003/2004 (Ma et al , 2004) although repor tedly NDF volumes have grown substantially in the recent period. As compared with some other Asian currencies traded in the NDF market such as the Korean won, Chinese yuan and Taiwanese dollar, turnover in INR NDF is small. While these volumes are not large enough to affect the domestic onshore market under regular market conditions, in volatile market conditions, however, these may impact the domestic spot markets. In fact, available data indicate a strong correlation between rupee-dollar spot, forward and NDF rates (Chart VI.9). As prices in the NDF market can be a useful informational tool for the authorities and investors to gauge market expectations of potential pressures on exchange rate, it may be useful from the policy angle to take cognisance of the developments in the NDF markets. 6.80 With regard to the regulatory aspects on the NDF market, there are no controls on the offshore participation in INR NDF markets. Domestic banking entities have specified open position and gap limits for their foreign exchange exposures and through these limits domestic entities could play in the NDF
10

mar kets to take advantage of any arbitrage opportunity. 6.81 Some Asian author ities are now contemplating the liberalisation of their currency markets. An important issue that they face is how to facilitate the transition from offshore NDF markets to regular onshore or deliverable forward markets. Despite the benefits of NDF markets for hedging purposes in Asia, par ticularly for currencies of countries attracting significant foreign investment, market participants indicate a number of limitations which are likely to be relevant in a period of transition. The first and most important limitation in Asia is that only global institutions and a limited number of domestic institutions are able to use these instruments. Besides, for most markets there is limited liquidity in contracts with a maturity over one year. Lastly, there is no guarantee that the holder of the contract will actually be able to trade foreign exchange at the fixing rate. An implication of this is that when a change in the exchange rate regime is anticipated, the validity of the fixing rate as an indication of where a trade can be transacted is significantly diminished. 6.82 To sum up, with increase in depth and liquidity, the Indian foreign exchange market has evolved into a mature market over a period of time. The turnover has increased over the years. With the gradual

For the Indian rupee, it is believed that arbitrage is profitable when there is difference of around 10 paise in the forwards prices. Such opportunities are not very common, but tend to occur whenever speculative actions increase.

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REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

opening up of the capital account, the forward premia is getting increasingly aligned with the interest rate differential. There is also an evidence of enhanced efficiency in the foreign exchange market as reflected in low bid-ask spreads. After having studied the development of the market structure and assessed their impact on liquidity and efficiency parameters, the next section dwells on the developments in the foreign exchange market in the post-liberalisation period, with focus on how the policy mix used by the Reserve Bank led the Indian economy to withstand several domestic as well as external shocks, including the contagion effect of the Asian crisis. V. BEHAVIOUR OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET IN THE POST-UNIFICATION PERIOD

exchange rate of the rupee against both the US dollar as also against a basket of currencies got adjusted downwards. The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the rupee in the months following the unification represented almost an equilibr ium situation. This was also borne out by the current account, which was more or less in balance in 199394. Exchange rate policy in the post-unification period was aimed at providing a stable environment by giving a boost to exports and foreign investment in line with the structural and stabilisation programme. 6.85 With the liberalisation in the capital account in the area of foreign direct investment and portfolio investments, capital inflows surged during 1993-94 and 1994-95. The large inflows tended to exer t appreciating pressure on the rupee. In order to obviate any nominal appreciation of the rupee, which could have eroded export competitiveness, the Reserve Bank purchased a por tion of such inflows and augmented the reserves. The foreign currency assets of the Reserve Bank rose from US $ 6.4 billion in March 1993 to US $ 20.8 billion in March 1995, representing over seven months of import cover. As a result, the exchange rate of the rupee reflected a prolonged period of stability and remained almost stable at Rs.31.37 per US dollar from March 1993 to July 1995. During this period, the sterilisation operations were on a lower scale, resulting in somewhat larger growth in monetary aggregates. Thus, the focus of exchange rate policy during this per iod was on preser ving the exter nal competitiveness at a time when the economy was undergoing a structural transformation. The Building up of the reserves was also one of the considerations. First Phase of Volatility: August 1995 to March 1996 6.86 After a long spell of stability during 1993-95, the rupee came under some pressure in the third quarter of calendar year 1995 on account of a sudden and sharp reversal of sentiment and expectations of market participants. Slowing down of capital inflows in the wake of the Mexican crisis, a moderate widening of the current account deficit on resurgence of activity in the real sector and the rise of US dollar against other major currencies after a bearish phase were the main factors contributing to this trend. During this period, there was a sharp movement in exchange rate often resulting in overshooting. During most periods the opening rate in the foreign exchange market moved beyond the Reserve Bank buying and selling range and a distinct downward trend was seen. Some 236

6.83 As in most other EMEs, the Indian foreign exchange market has also witnessed occasional periods of volatility in the post-1993 period. However, unlike many other EMEs where volatilities have persisted for prolonged periods resulting in severe imbalances and crises, the Indian experience reflects an effective and timely management of volatility in the foreign exchange market. The exchange rate policy is guided by the need to reduce excess volatility, prevent the emergence of destabilising speculative activities, help maintain adequate level of reserves and develop an orderly foreign exchange market. With a view to reducing the excess volatility in the foreign exchange market arising from lumpy demand and supply as well as leads and lags in merchant transactions, the Reserve Bank undertakes sale and purchase operations in the foreign exchange market. Such interventions, however, are not governed by any pre-determined target or band around the exchange rate. The experience with the market-determined exchange rate system since 1993 can be described as generally satisfactory as orderliness prevailed in the Indian market during most of the period. A few episodes of volatility that emerged were effectively managed through a combination of timely and effective monetar y as well as administrative measures, which ensured return of orderliness to the market, within the shortest possible time. First Phase of Stability: March 1993 to July 1995 6.84 In March 1993, as a precursor to current account convertibility, India moved from the dual exchange rate regime to a unified market determined exchange rate system under which the exchange rate is determined by the forces of supply and demand. On unification of the exchange rates, the nominal

FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

of the structural weaknesses of the Indian inter-bank market like thinness and lack of heterogeneity of views among market participants became apparent. The bidoffer spread widened to about 20 paise; on certain days the spread was as wide as 85 paise, resulting in tremendous buying pressure in the face of meager supply. To eliminate the inconsistency of its buying rate, the Reserve Bank stopped publishing its quote on the Reuter screen with effect from October 4, 1995 offering only a buying quote to banks on specific request. 6.87 With the objective of having an active market intervention strategy, it was decided to keep a watch over day-to-day merchant demands of some large banks which handled more than 50 per cent of the import payments. As the main buying requirements of these banks were in respect of mainly public sector undertakings, a system was put in place to obtain information about their daily requirements. Market intelligence and infor mation gathering were strengthened and the Reserve Bank started obtaining direct price quotes from leading foreign exchange broking firms. Two basic approaches on intervention were adopted. On days when there was information about large all round demand, an aggressive stance was taken with intensive selling in larger lots till the rate was brought down decisively. On other occasions, continual sale of small/moderate amounts was undertaken to prevent unduly large intra-day variations. While the first approach was aimed at absorbing excess market demand, the second at curbing one ratchet effect.11 The size of individual intervention deals was usually in the range of US $ 1-2 million, although some large size deals not exceeding US $ 5 million were also resorted to occasionally. 6.88 Direct intervention was supplemented by administrative measures such as imposition of interest surcharge on import finance and the tightening of concessions in export credit for longer periods. Consequent upon tightness in liquidity conditions due to intervention which led to soaring of call money rates, money market support was restored with the easing of CRR requirements on domestic as well as nonresident deposits from 15.0 per cent to 14.5 per cent in November 1995. With a view to discouraging the excessive use of bank credit for funding the demand for foreign exchange, interest surcharge on import finance was raised from 15 to 25 per cent. The scheme for extending Post-shipment Expor t Credit
11

denominated in US dollar (PSCFC) was discontinued with effect from February 8, 1996 as it enabled exporters to earn a positive differential over the cost of funds simply by drawing credit and selling forward, thereby receiving the premia. Moreover, to curb excessive speculation in the forward mar ket, cancellation of forward contracts booked by ADs for amounts of US $ 1,00,000 and above was required to be reported to the Reserve Bank on a weekly basis. The decisive and timely policy actions brought stability to the market and the rupee traded within the range of Rs.34.00 to Rs.35.00 per US dollar in the spot segment during the period from October 1995 to March 1996. Second Phase of Stability: April 1996 to MidAugust 1997 6.89 The foreign exchange market witnessed remarkable stability during the period from April 1996 to mid-August 1997. During this period, the spot exchange rate remained in the range of Rs.35.5036.00 per US dollar. The stability in the spot rate was reflected in forward premia as well. The premia, which remained within 6 to 9 per cent (six month) during the financial year 1996-97, declined further during the first five months of 1997-98 within a range of 3 to 6 per cent following easy liquidity conditions. From the second quarter of calendar year 1996 onwards, capital flows restored and the reserve loss was recouped within a short period of time. Second Phase of Volatility: Mid-August 1997 to August 1998 6.90 The year 1997-98 and the first quarter of 1998-99 posed serious challenges to exchange rate management due to the contagion effect of the SouthEast Asian currency crisis and some domestic factors. There were two periods of significant volatility in the Indian foreign exchange market: (i) from mid-August 1997 to January 1998, and (ii) May 1998 till August 1998. Response to these episodes included intervention in both the spot and forward segments of the foreign exchange market and adoption of stringent monetary and administrative measures, which were rolled back immediately on restoration of orderly conditions. 6.91 During the latter part of the calendar year 1996 and early months of calendar year 1997, anticipation of stability in general and even

The ratchet effect means that in a bearish market situation if the rate falls even due to situational factors it does not recover easily even on reversal of those factors.

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REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 6.10: REER and NEER of Select Asian Countries

(Base: 2000=100)
Country 1 Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) China India Japan Malaysia Philippines Singapore Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) China India Japan Malaysia Philippines Singapore Note 1995 2 1997 3 2000 4 2001 5 2002 6 2003 7 2004 8 2005 9

84.7 101.7 108.2 122.7 120.4 106.2 82.2 117.0 99.4 127.6 145.8 97.1

100.4 103.0 85.3 122.6 128.7 110.2 92.5 114.3 81.3 126.8 142.5 105.6

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

104.3 100.9 89.0 104.9 95.6 100.5 105.5 97.9 90.5 105.4 90.9 101.6

101.9 96.9 83.0 105.0 96.2 97.9 105.1 93.3 85.7 104.8 89.7 100.8

95.2 96.6 83.6 99.2 89.1 94.3 98.6 90.1 85.4 99.6 81.3 98.4

92.7 98.4 84.5 94.9 86.2 93.3 94.2 88.6 87.1 95.9 75.7 97.9

92.5 103.7 79.4 95.2 92.3 92.1 94.3 91.3 85.3 95.5 76.9 98.7

: Rise in index implies appreciation. For India data pertain to 6 currency trade-based index. Source : International Financial Statistics, IMF, 2006 and Reserve Bank of India.

appreciation of rupee in some quarters led many market participants to keep their oversold or short positions unhedged and substitute partly domestic debt by foreign currency borrowings to take advantage of interest arbitrage. This tendency was evident in the increased demand for loans out of FCNR(B) funds. The relatively stable exchange rates of the Asian currencies prior to this period had contributed to their appreciation in real terms (Table 6.10). In the wake of developments in the South East Asia and market perceptions of exchange rate policy, mar ket participants rushed to cover unhedged positions. The Reserve Bank also subtly managed to talk down the rupee in August 1997. 6.92 In response to the developments in the foreign exchange market, the Reserve Bank intervened both in the spot and the forward segments of the market to prevent sharp depreciation of the rupee and to curb volatility, especially in the forward segment, which led to rise in outstanding forward liabilities by US $ 904 million in September 1997. In October 1997, the Reserve Bank allowed banks to invest and borrow abroad up to 15 per cent of unimpaired Tier I capital, which led to the resumption of capital flows and increase in volumes in the foreign exchange market, particularly in the outright forward and swap segments. In such market condition, the Reserve Bank undertook intervention in both spot and forward segment and liquidated its forward liabilities (Table 6.11). 6.93 Thereafter, however, persistent excess demand conditions combined with considerable 238

volatility prevailed in the foreign exchange market. Market sentiment weakened sharply from November 1997 onwards in reaction to intensification of the crisis in the South-East Asia, and bearishness in domestic stock markets. Between November 1997 and January 1998, the exchange rate of the Indian r upee depreciated by around 9 per cent. The Reserve Bank undertook wide ranging and strong monetary and administrative measures on January 16, 1998 in order to curb the speculative tendencies among the market players and restore orderly conditions in the foreign exchange market (Box VI.6). As a result of monetary measures of January 16, 1998, the stability in the Table 6.11 : Reserve Banks Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market
(US $ billion) Year 1 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07@ Purchase 2 3.6 11.2 15.1 28.7 24.1 28.2 22.8 30.6 55.4 31.4 15.2 24.5 Sale 3 3.9 3.4 11.2 26.9 20.8 25.8 15.8 14.9 24.9 10.6 7.1 0 Net 4 -0.3 7.8 3.9 1.8 3.3 2.4 7.0 15.7 30.5 20.8 8.1 24.5 Outstanding Net Forward Sales/Purchase 5 -1.8 -0.8 -0.7 -1.3 -0.4 2.4 1.4 0 0 0

@ : April-February. Source : Reserve Bank of India.

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Box VI.6 Policy Measures Undertaken in the Wake of Asian Crisis

November 26, 1997 (i) Export Credit : Interest rate on post-shipment rupee export credit on usance bills for period (comprising usance period of export bills transit period as specified by the FEDAI and grace period wherever applicable) beyond 90 days and up to six months from the date of shipment was increased from 13 per cent to 15 per cent per annum. : Deferment of future programme of bringing about a reduction in cash reserve ratio (CRR). : Introduction of fixed rate repos at 4.5 per cent to absorb surplus liquidity. : With effect from December 15, 1997 interest rate on post-shipment rupee export credit of 15 per cent was to made applicable from the date of advance. Exporters were expected to take advantage of the time gap available up to December 15, 1997 by expediting realisations of their export proceeds. : Ban on rebooking of cancelled forward contracts on non-trade transactions for the same underlying exposure, only rollover allowed. : Increase in CRR by 0.5 percentage points to 10 per cent with effect from fortnight beginning December 6, 1997. : The facility granted to ADs in April 1997 to offer forward contracts based on past performance and declaration of exposure was suspended and forward contracts were allowed based only on documents evidencing exposure. : Abolition of 10 per cent incremental CRR on NRE(R)A and NR(NR)RD schemes with effect from December 6, 1997. : Reporting of cancellations of forward contracts beyond US $ 500,000 and merchant sales of US $ 2 million and above. : Interest rate on fixed rate repos was raised to 5 per cent with effect from December 3, 1997. : Interest rate on fixed rate repos was raised to 6.5 per cent. : The interest rate on fixed rate repos was raised to 7.0 per cent.

November 28, 1997 (i) CRR (ii) Repos (iii) Export Credit

December 1, 1997 (i) Forward Contracts December 2, 1997 (i) CRR (iii) Forward Contracts (iii) NRI Deposits December 3, 1997 (i) Forward Contracts (ii) Repos December 4, 1997 (i) Repos December 11, 1997 (i) Repos December 17, 1997 (i) Export Credit

: Imposition of interest rate of 20 per cent per annum (minimum) on overdue export bills from the date of advance. In case of demand bills and short-term usance bills, the higher rate of interest was not applicable where the total period of credit, including the period of overdue was less than one month from the date of bill/ negotiation. (ii) Surcharge on Import Finance : Imposition of interest rate surcharge of 15 per cent of the lending rate (excluding interest tax) on import finance. December 19, 1997 (i) Overseas Investments December 31, 1997 (i) Export Credit : Overnight investments from nostro accounts were included in the 15 per cent of unimpaired Tier I capital limit for overseas investments by ADs. : Increase in the interest rate on post-shipment rupee export credit (measures undertaken on November 26 and 28, 1997) was rolled back. In other words, rate of interest on post-shipment rupee export credit (other than against overdue export bills) for period beyond 90 days and up to six months was to be 13 per cent per annum with effect from January 1, 1998. Hence, the position prevailing prior to November 26, 1997 was restored. : Imposition of interest rate of 20 per cent per annum on overdue export bills was made applicable for the overdue period and not from the date of advance and this rate was to be applicable in respect of certain chronic cases (where even six months ago, the bills were overdue). : Banks would have to square up their foreign exchange position on a daily basis.

(ii) Export Credit

January 6, 1998 (i) Overnight Position Limits January 16, 1998 (i) CRR (ii) Repos (iii) Repos

: Increase in CRR by 0.5 percentage points to 10.5 per cent with effect from fortnight beginning January 17, 1997. : Interest rate on fixed rate repos was raised to 9.0 per cent from 7.0 per cent. : Reverse repos facility was made available to Primary Dealers in Government Securities market at the Bank Rate on a discretionary basis and subject to stipulation of conditions relating to their operations in the call money market. (iv) Surcharge on Import Finance : Interest rate surcharge on import finance was increased from 15 per cent to 30 per cent. (v) Overnight Position Limits : It was decided to withdraw the across-the-board formal stipulation regarding square/near- square positions and restore to banks the freedom to run exposure within the limits approved. Banks were, however, advised to use their overnight position limits for genuine transactions. (vi) Overseas Investments : To meet genuine operational requirements in foreign exchange transactions, requests of individual banks would be considered in regard to limits on nostro account balances. (vii) Bank Rate : The Bank rate was increased from 9 per cent to 11 per cent with corresponding increase in the interest rate on Export Credit Refinance as well as General Refinance. (viii) Refinance : Export refinance limit was reduced from 100 to 50 per cent of the increase in outstanding export credit eligible for refinance over the level of such credit as on February 16, 1996. (ix) Refinance : General refinance limit was reduced from 1 per cent to 0.25 per cent of the fortnightly average outstanding aggregate deposits in 1996-97.

Note : Effective October 29, 2004, India switched over to the international usage of the term repo and reverse repo. Thus, repo mentioned here is same as reverse repo presently used.

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foreign exchange mar ket retur ned and more impor tantly, the expectations of the mar ket par ticipants about fur ther depreciation in the exchange rate of rupee were somewhat contained. The volatility in the market as measured by monthwise coefficient of variation reduced from 1.26 per cent in January 1998 to 0.49 per cent in February 1998 and further to 0.08 per cent in March 1998. The exchange rate of rupee, which had depreciated to Rs. 40.36 per US dollar as on Januar y 16, 1998, appreciated to Rs. 39.50 on March 31, 1998. The six month forward premia, which reached a peak of around 20 per cent in January 1998, came down to 7.0 per cent by end March 1998. 6.94 As normalcy returned in the foreign exchange market, the monetary measures were eased. Interest rate on fixed rate repos (now reverse repo) was reduced to 7 per cent as on April 2, 1998 and further to 6 per cent on April 29, 1998. On April 29, 1998 the export refinance limit was also increased from 50 per cent to 100 per cent of the incremental export credit eligible for refinance. The CRR and the Bank rate were also reduced to earlier levels. India emerged relatively unscathed from the 1997 crisis due to the proactive policy responses initiated by the Reserve Bank. It acted swiftly to curb speculative activities and change market expectations. Direct interventions followed by administrative measures were undertaken, initially. However, when the volatility continued and sentiment remained unchanged, monetary measures were undertaken to reverse unidirectional expectations. 6.95 Management of the external sector continued to be a major challenge even in the post Asian crisis period, particularly during May to August 1998 as a result of bearishness in domestic stock exchanges, uncertainties created by internal developments and the strengthening of US dollar against major currencies, particularly yen. Furthermore, during this phase India was confronted with cer tain other developments like economic sanctions imposed by several industrial countries, suspension of fresh multilateral lending (except for certain specified sectors), downgrading of countr y rating by inter national rating agencies and reduction in investment by foreign institutional investors (FIIs). While Moodys downgraded Indias sovereign rating from investment to non-investment grade, Standard & Poors changed the non-investment grade outlook for India from stable to negative (Table 6.12). As a result of these developments, exchange rate again witnessed increased pressure during May to August 1998. The exchange rate of the rupee, which was Rs.39.73 per US dollar at end April 1998, depreciated 240

gradually to around Rs. 42.50 per US dollar by the end-June 1998. During this phase too, apart from direct intervention, the Reserve Bank took recourse to monetary and other measures from time to time in order to bring about orderliness in the foreign exchange market. 6.96 Apart from monetary measures, important measures that were announced by the Reserve Bank on June 11 and August 20, 1998 included withdrawal of the facility of rebooking of cancelled forward contracts for trade related transactions, including imports (earlier, the restriction was only for non-trade related transactions), stoppage of the practice of some corporates to cover the forward commitment by first locking into a forward rate and thereafter covering the spot risk, and advising ADs to report their open position as well as peak intra-day positions to the Reserve Bank. Certain liberalisation measures were also taken, which included increasing the participants in the forward market by allowing FIIs to take forward cover on their equity exposure and allowing exporters to use their balances in (EEFC) accounts for all business related payments in India and abroad at their discretion. 6.97 A distinguishing aspect of the foreign exchange market interventions during the 1997-98 volatility episode was that instead of doing the transactions directly with ADs, a few select public sector banks were chosen as intermediaries for this purpose. Under this arrangement, public sector banks undertook deals in the inter-bank market at the direction of the Reserve Bank for which it provided cover at the end of the business hours each day. Care was taken to ensure that the public sector banks own inter-bank operations were kept separate from the transactions undertaken on behalf of the Reserve Bank. Periodic on-site scrutiny of the records and arrangements of these banks by the Reserve Bank was instituted to check any malpractice or deficiency in this regard. The main reason for adopting an indirect intervention strategy in preference to a direct one was a judgmental view that this arrangement would provide a cover for Reserve Banks operations and reduces its visibility and hence would be more effective. This view was premised on the assumption that buying/ selling by a market-maker will have a pronounced impact on market sentiment than would be the case if it does the same directly. The fact that the Reserve Bank was intervening in the market through a few other public sector banks was not disclosed, though in due course of time, it was known to the market. Besides, as a measure of abundant precaution and also to send a signal internationally regarding the

FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

Table 6.12: Indias Sovereign Credit Rating by S&P, Moodys and Fitch Ratings
Year 1990 1991 S & Ps Rating Grade and Outlook BBB (September) BBB(March) Stable Credit Watch Credit Watch Removed (September) 1992 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 BB + (June) BB+ BB + BB + (October) BB + (October) BB (May) BB + (October) 2000 Non-Investment Grade Stable Non-Investment Grade Non-Investment Grade Stable Non-Investment Grade Positive Non-Investment Grade Stable Non-Investment Grade Negative Non-Investment Grade Stable BB+ (March) BB+ (September) BB (August) Non-Investment Grade Negative Ba2 (August) Non-Investment Grade Negative BB+ (May) BB (November) 2002 2003 2004 2005 BB (September) BB (December) BB (August) BB + (February) BB + (December) 2006 2007 BB+ (April) BBB(January) Non-Investment Grade Negative Non-Investment Grade Stable Non-Investment Grade Positive Non-Investment Grade Stable Stable Non-Investment Grade Positive Investment Grade Stable Baa2 (May) Baa2 Moodys Investment Grade Investment Grade, Stable Investment Grade, Stable BBB (August) BBB Investment Grade Stable Investment Grade Stable Fitch Ratings : AAA, AA+, AA, A+, A, BBB+, BBB, BBBBa2 Ba1 (February) Baa3 (January) Baa3 (April) Non-Investment Grade Non-Investment Grade Investment Grade BB+ (January) Stable Baa3 (February) Ba2 (June) Baa3 (December) Baa3 (October) Investment Grade Investment Grade Investment Grade Investment Grade Negative Non-Investment Grade Stable Moodys Rating Baa1 (October) Baa3 (March) Ba2 (June) Grade and Outlook Watch List (1-8-1990) Fitch Ratings Grade and Outlook

Stable Negative Stable

2001

Standard and Poors Investment Grade : AAA, AA+, AA, A+, A, BBB+, BBB, BBB-

: Aaa, Aal,Aa2, Aa3, Al, Investment Grade A2, A3, Baal, Baa2, Baa3,

Non-Investment Grade : BB+, BB, BB-, B+, B, B- Non-Investment Grade : Bal, Ba2, Ba3, Bl, B2, B3 Non-Investment Grade : BB+, BB, BB-, B+, B, BDefault Grade : CCC+, CCC, CCC-, Default Grade CC, C : Caa, Ca, C Default Grade : CCC+, CCC, CCC-, CC, C

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intrinsic strength of the economy, India floated the Resurgent India Bonds (RIBs) in August 1998, which was very well received by the Non-Resident Indians (NRIs)/ Persons of Indian Origin (PIO). 6.98 In retrospect, India was successful in containing the contagion effect of the Asian crisis due to swift policy responses to manage the crisis and favourable macro economic condition. During the period of crisis, India had a low current account deficit, comfortable foreign exchange reserves amounting to impor t cover of over seven months, a marketdetermined exchange rate, low level of short-term debt, and absence of asset price inflation or credit boom. These positive features were the result of prudent policies pursued over the years notably, cap on external commercial borrowings with restrictions on end-use, low exposure of banks to real estate and the stock market, insulation from large intermediation of overseas capital by the banking sector, close monitoring of off-balance sheet items and tight legislative, regulatory and prudential control over nonbank entities. Some capital controls also helped in insulating the economy from the contagion effect of the East Asian crisis. The ultimate result could be seen in terms of low volatility in the exchange rate of the Indian rupee, during the second half of the 1990s, when most of the Asian currencies witnessed high level of volatility (Table 6.13). Phase of Relative Stability with Intermittent EventRelated Volatility: September 1998 - March 2003 6.99 The measures announced by the Reserve Bank earlier coupled with the success of the RIB issue, which was subscribed to the tune of US $ 4.2 billion, had a stabilising effect on the foreign exchange market, resulting in a marked improvement in the sentiment. The r upee remained stable dur ing

September 1998 to May 1999 before coming under pressure during June-October 1999 due to the nervousness in the market induced by heightened tension on the border. Besides intervention in order to reduce the temporary demand-supply mismatches, the Reserve Bank on August 23, 1999, indicated its readiness to meet fully/par tly foreign exchange requirements on account of crude oil imports and debt service payments of the Government. 6.100 The period between April 2000 and March 2003 generally remained stable with intermittent periods of volatility associated with sharp increase in inter national crude oil prices in 1999-2000, successive interest rate increases in industrial countries, cross-currency movements of the US dollar vis--vis other major international currencies and the sharp reversals of portfolio flows in 2000. The Reserve Bank responded promptly through monetary and other measures like variations in the Bank Rate, the repo rate, cash reserve requirements, refinance to banks, surcharge on import finance and minimum interest rates on overdue export bills to curb destabilising speculative activities during these episodes of volatility, while allowing order ly corrections in the exchange rate of the rupee. Financing through India Millennium Deposits (IMDs) was resorted to as a preemptive step in the face of hardening of wor ld petroleum pr ices and the consequent possible depletion of Indias foreign exchange reserves. Inflows under the IMDs to the tune of US $ 5.5 billion during October-November 2000 helped in easing the market pressure. 6.101 The exchange rate pressure in the aftermath of September 11, 2001 incident in the US was tackled by the Reserve Bank through quick responses in ter ms of a package of measures and liquidity operations. These measures included: (i) a reiteration

Table 6.13: Daily Exchange Rate Volatility in Select Emerging Economies

(Annualised; in per cent) Currency 1 Indian Rupee South Korean Won South African Rand Turkish New Lira Indonesian Rupiah Thai Baht New Taiwan Dollar Singapore Dollar Philippine Peso 1993-1995 2 7.5 2.6 5.3 29.3 2.1 1.7 3.7 3.7 6.8 1996-2000 3 4.3 22.2 11.4 5.4 43.4 18.3 5.3 7.4 12.9 2001 4 1.6 8.1 20.2 63.1 21.7 4.9 3.6 4.5 17.6 2003 5 2.1 8.3 20.9 16.2 6.8 4.4 2.7 4.5 4.1 2004 6 4.7 6.5 21.4 12.2 7.7 4.3 4.9 4.6 3.1 2005 7 3.5 6.8 15.4 10.4 9.1 4.7 4.9 4.4 4.1 2006 8 4.0 6.9 16.0 16.6 8.9 6.2 4.9 3.9 4.6

Note : Volatility has been calculated by taking the standard deviation of percentage change in daily exchange rates. Source : Reserve Bank of India and IMF.

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by the Reserve Bank to keep interest rates stable with adequate liquidity; (ii) assurance to sell foreign exchange to meet any unusual supply-demand gap; (iii) opening a purchase window for select government securities on an auction basis; (iv) relaxation in FII investment limits up to the sectoral cap/statutory ceiling; (v) a special financial package for large value exports of six select products; and (vi) reduction in interest rates on export credit by one percentage point. Period with Surge in Capital Flows: 2003-04 onwards 6.102 Excess supply conditions have dominated the foreign exchange market since 2003-04 due to a surge in capital inflows. Large scale purchases by the Reserve Bank to absorb excess supplies in the foreign exchange market assuaged the strong upward pressure on the exchange rate. The Reserve Bank resorted to sterilisation operations to tackle such flows. Faced with the finite stock of Government of India securities with the Reserve Bank, market Stabilisation scheme (MSS) was introduced in April 2004 wherein the Gover nment of India dated securities/Treasury Bills were issued to absorb liquidity. As a result, its foreign exchange reserves more than trebled during the period from US $ 54.1 billion at end-March 2002 to US $ 199.2 billion at endMarch 2007 - an average increase of US $ 29.0 billion per annum. Foreign exchange reserves stood at US $ 203.1 billion as on April 13, 2007. 6.103 One instance during this period when rupee came under substantial pressure was on May 17, 2004 when it reached Rs. 45.96 per US dollar from

Rs.43.45 per US dollar as at end-March 2004 on account of turbulence in the Indian equity market due to political uncertainty in the aftermath of general election results and rising global oil prices. On that day, the stock markets in India witnessed a record fall in price, which triggered the index-based circuit breaker twice during the day. The index-based circuit breaker triggered a stoppage of trades in the stock exchange for around two hours. Anticipating the possibility of a spill-over in the money, government securities and the foreign exchange markets, the Reser ve Bank inter vened on that day and two separate press releases were issued by the Reserve Bank indicating (a) the constitution of an Internal Task Force under the Executive Director, Financial Market Committee to monitor the developments in financial markets; and (b) its willingness to provide liquidity (Mohan, 2006d). These announcements had a salutary impact and soon orderly conditions were restored. In fact, no Reserve Bank liquidity or foreign exchange facilities announced during the day had to be used. 6.104 A look at the entire period since 1993 when India moved towards market determined exchange rates reveals that the Indian Rupee has generally depreciated against the dollar during the last 14 years, except during the period 2003 to 2005 when rupee appreciated on account of general dollar weakness against major currencies. For the period as a whole, 1993-94 to 2006-07, the Indian rupee depreciated against dollar by about 30.9 per cent on an annual average basis (Table 6.14).

Table 6.14 : Movements of Indian Rupee-US Dollar Exchange Rate : 1993-94 to 2005-06
Year Range (Rs. per US $) 2 31.21-31.49 31.37-31.97 31.37-37.95 34.14-35.96 35.70-40.36 39.48-43.42 42.44-43.64 43.61-46.89 46.56-48.85 47.51-49.06 43.45-47.46 43.36-46.46 43.30-46.33 43.14-46.97 Average Exchange Rate (Rs. per US $) 3 31.37 31.40 33.45 35.50 37.16 42.07 43.33 45.68 47.69 48.40 45.95 44.93 44.28 45.28 Appreciation/ Depreciation (%) 4 Coefficient of Variation (%) 5 0.1 0.3 5.8 1.3 4.2 2.1 0.7 2.3 1.4 0.9 1.6 2.3 1.5 2.0 Standard Deviation 6

1 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 Source : Reserve Bank of India.

-0.10 -6.13 -5.77 -4.47 -11.67 -2.91 -5.14 -4.21 -1.47 5.40 2.16 1.51 -2.45

1.93 0.48 1.57 0.90 0.29 1.07 0.67 0.45 0.72 1.03 1.79 0.89

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Table 6.15: Trends in External Value of Indian Rupee

36-Currency Trade Based REER 1 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 P 2 100.00 104.32 98.19 96.83 100.77 93.04 95.99 100.09 100.86 98.18 99.56 100.09 102.34 98.07 % Variation 3 0.0 4.3 -5.9 -1.4 4.1 -7.7 3.2 4.3 0.8 -2.7 1.4 0.5 2.2 -4.2 NEER 4 100.00 98.91 91.54 89.27 92.04 89.05 91.02 92.12 91.58 89.12 87.14 87.31 89.84 85.80 % Variation 5 0.0 -1.1 -7.5 -2.5 3.1 -3.2 2.2 1.2 -0.6 -2.7 -2.2 0.2 2.9 -4.5 REER 6 100.00 105.71 101.14 100.97 104.24 95.99 97.52 102.64 102.49 97.43 98.85 101.36 106.67 104.91 6-Currency Trade Based % Variation 7 0.0 5.7 -4.3 -0.2 3.2 -7.9 1.6 5.3 -0.1 -4.9 1.5 2.5 5.2 -1.6 NEER 8 100.00 96.86 88.45 86.73 87.80 77.37 77.04 77.30 75.89 71.09 69.75 69.26 71.41 68.13 % Variation 9 0.0 -3.1 -8.7 -1.9 1.2 -11.9 -0.4 0.3 -1.8 -6.3 -1.9 -0.7 3.1 -4.6

REER : Real Effective Exchange Rate. NEER : Nominal Effective Exchange Rate. P : Provisional. (+) indicates appreciation and () indicates depreciation. Note : Both REER and NEER are bilateral trade weight-based indices with 1993-94 as the base year. Source : Reserve Bank of India.

6.105 In terms of real effective exchange rates (REER), while the REER (6 currency trade based indices) appreciated by about 7 per cent, the REER (36 currency trade based indices) recorded an appreciation of above 2 per cent during the period 199394 to 2005-06 (Table 6.15). 6.106 An important feature has been the reduction in volatility of rupee exchange rate during last few years. Among all currencies worldwide, which are not on a nominal peg, and certainly among all emerging market

economies, the rupee-dollar exchange rate has been less volatile. The REER of India has been relatively stable compared with other key Asian countries. The volatility measured from the effective exchange rates, i.e., 6 currency NEER and REER indices for India, was also lower as compared with other countries such as the US and Japan for recent period (Table 6.16). 6.107 In the context of the behaviour of the exchange rate in the post-liberalisation period, it is worth exploring some related aspects such as the changing

Table 6.16: Volatility of Exchange Rates in the Global Foreign Exchange Market
(Per cent) Year India 1 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2 1.2 1.3 2.9 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.0 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.1 US 3 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.3 2.0 1.3 1.8 1.1 1.4 2.2 1.7 1.4 NEER UK 4 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.5 0.7 1.8 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.1 Japan 5 2.6 2.2 3.7 1.4 3.0 4.0 2.7 2.8 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.9 1.4 Euro Area 6 1.8 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.1 2.4 1.2 0.8 1.5 0.9 0.9 China 7 8.2 1.1 1.2 0.7 1.8 1.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.3 India 8 1.3 2.5 2.9 1.2 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 US 9 0.8 1.3 1.5 0.7 1.4 1.4 0.8 1.0 0.7 1.0 1.6 1.2 0.9 REER UK 10 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.4 0.8 1.6 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 Japan 11 2.8 2.2 3.5 1.4 2.8 4.1 2.9 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.9 1.4 Euro Area 12 1.9 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.7 1.7 1.3 2.4 1.6 1.2 1.7 2.0 1.0 China 13 8.2 1.3 1.2 0.7 1.6 1.6 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.5

Note : Volatility has been calculated by taking the standard deviation of percentage change in monthly REER/NEER indices. Source : IFS, IMF, 2006 and Reserve Bank of India.

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invoicing patter n of trade, the cross currency movement and the impact of global imbalances on the Indian foreign exchange market. In international trade, the pattern of currency invoicing depends on a number of factors such as historic relationships between the trading par tners, established conventions, the relative bargaining strength of trading parties, as well as the extent of development of the foreign exchange market. Under a flexible exchange

rate system, the exchange rate developments of major currencies also play an important role. Particularly, the expectation of the exporter/importer about the future changes in the exchange rates is a significant consideration in invoicing of exports/imports, as the invoiced amounts are received/paid with a lag of some weeks/months after the invoicing is made. The invoicing pattern of trade also has implications for exchange rate pass through (Box VI.7). With the

Box VI.7 Invoicing Pattern of Trade and Exchange Rate Pass-Through

A macroeconomic puzzle of the 1990s observed in several countries was the phenomenon of low inflation despite episodes of large currency depreciation, implying low exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices. A large volume of literature that spawned observed that exchange rate pass-through declined in several developed and developing countries. The literature suggests that some of the important determinants of pass-through are: low global inflation and its lower volatility (Taylor (2000), Choudhri and Hakura (2001) and Gagnon and Ihrig (2004)); volatility of exchange rate; share of import in the domestic consumption; trade to GDP ratio; composition of imports; trade distortions from tariffs and quantitative restrictions (Goldfajn and Werlang (2000), Campa and Goldberg (2004) and Frankel et al (2005)). The general argument is that lower average inflation and its volatility was an outcome of credible monetary policy. In such an environment, firms believe that monetary policy will be successful in stabilising prices and are less keen to alter prices of their products resulting in lower passthrough. The impact of exchange rate volatility on passthrough is less unambiguous. One view is that currencies of countries with lower exchange rate variability imply a stable monetary policy, and consequently, would be chosen as the invoice currency. Hence, the pass-through would be lower. The counter view is that greater exchange rate volatility implies common and transitory fluctuation, and makes firms wary of changing prices as they fear losing market share. Firms, are therefore, more willing to adjust profit margins. Increasing share of trade in GDP by increasing the share of imports in consumption and the participation of foreign firms in domestic economy would lead to higher pass-through. Pass-through to imports such as energy, raw materials and food with inelastic and less competitive supply are found to be higher than to manufacture products, the supply of which is elastic and more competitive. Thus, change in import composition would affect the aggregate pass-through even when the pass-through in individual components remains the same. Trade barriers such as tariffs and quantitative restrictions act as barrier to arbitrage of goods between countries and have negative impact on pass-through. Reducing these barriers would, thus, lead to higher pass-through. These factors underwent significant transformation in the early 1990s with economic reforms. Thus, exchange rate passthrough to domestic prices in India would have undergone a change during the post-economic reforms as found in other countries. A recent study for the period August 1991 to March 2005 that estimated the pass-through coefficients found that a 10 per cent change in exchange rate leads to change in final prices by about 0.6 per cent in short run and 0.9 per cent in the long run. The statistical tests on temporal behaviour of pass-through obtained from rolling regressions show that, unlike in case of many countries, there was no evidence of decline in pass-through. This was much more evident in the long-run than in the short-run, and was observed to be the result of rise in inflation persistence. Further, pass-through from appreciation was found to be higher than depreciation. In an increasingly open economy where foreign firms' objective would expectedly be to capture a larger market share, they would be more willing to pass on the benefit of lower prices from appreciation and avoid passing on the higher prices from depreciation that cause loss of market share. The pass-through was higher for small than large exchange rate changes. This could be explained by the invoicing of imports in India in US dollars (80-90 per cent) and the presence of menu cost in changing invoice price. For small exchange rate change, it is not worthwhile to change the invoice price of imports in its own currency due to the menu cost (a fixed cost involved in altering invoice price). Thus, the import price in local currency (domestic prices) would change by the extent of the exchange rate change, i.e., a higher pass-through. The opposite will be the case for large exchange rate change, as it would be worthwhile for foreign firms to change the invoice price in their currency in order to absorb a part of the exchange rate change on import price in local currency. Invoicing pattern of trade, exchange rate movements and exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices, thus, have implications for exchange rate management and trade competitiveness. Reference: Khundrakpam, J.K. 2007. Economic Reforms and Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in India. BIS Working Paper No. 225, February.

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REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 6.17: Currency-wise Invoicing of Indias Exports and Imports

(Per cent) Imports Currency 1 US Dollar Deutsche Mark Euro Japanese Yen Pound Sterling Indian Rupee Others Total 1990-91 2 59.7 7.0 4.4 3.1 7.7 18.1 100.0 1994-95 3 73.5 5.9 4.4 2.5 0.4 13.3 100.0 1999-00 4 85.8 1.6 3.3 3.8 1.7 0.0 3.8 100.0 2005-06 P 5 88.6 0.0 6.5 2.2 1.0 0.0 1.7 100.0 1990-91 6 57.2 5.1 0.1 4.5 27.7 5.4 100.0 Exports 1994-95 7 78.8 6.3 0.3 4.8 3.3 6.5 100.0 1999-00 8 87.0 1.6 3.0 0.3 3.9 0.3 3.9 100.0 2005-06 P 9 85.8 0.0 7.6 0.5 2.8 1.9 1.4 100.0

P : Provisional. Source : Reserve Bank of India.

growing importance of the Indian economy and its rising share in world trade, it is expected that the Indian currency would gain considerable acceptance in future. In fact, the growth of NDF market in rupee, in a way, shows the use of rupee in international transactions. 6.108 Although the invoicing of trade in rupee has been permitted, there has not been any significant growth. The substantial share of exports invoiced in rupees during 1990-91 was on account of the practice of exports invoicing in rupees to bilateral account countries (Table 6.17). The subsequent drop in the share of rupee invoicing could be attributed to discontinuance of rupee trade consequent upon agreement between the Government of India and the Russian Federation in 1992 to scrap the bilateral trade and instead invoice trade in US dollar. However, after

disintegration of the USSR, rupee invoicing of exports is now confined to financing of exports through repayment of civilian and non-civilian debt to Russia. The use of rupee invoicing for trade purposes needs to be given due consideration by the importers/ exporters as Indias share in world trade in goods and services expands in future. 6.109 An important feature of the Indian foreign exchange market observed in recent years has been the growing correlation between the movement in exchange rate of the Indian rupee and currencies of the Asian countries. In the last couple of years, the rupee-dollar exchange rate is increasingly getting linked to exchange rate of some of the Asian currencies such as Japanese yen vis-a-vis US dollar (Table 6.18). This feature of the market could be

Table 6.18: Cross Currency Correlation (January 3, 2005 to December 4, 2006)

(Per cent) Currency 1 Euro Yen GPB AD CaD Yuan INR IRu PRu Ruble SD SLR Baht Euro 2 1.00 0.54 0.95 0.68 0.00 -0.12 0.01 0.37 0.04 0.70 0.56 -0.02 0.70 Yen 3 1.00 0.45 0.66 -0.74 -0.82 0.68 -0.02 0.76 -0.20 -0.28 0.72 -0.12 GPB 4 AD 5 CaD 6 Yuan 7 INR 8 IRu 9 PRu 10 Ruble 11 SD 12 SLR 13 Baht 14

1.00 0.73 0.04 -0.02 -0.06 0.31 -0.09 0.72 0.57 -0.13 0.71

1.00 -0.35 -0.36 0.39 0.06 0.29 0.17 0.08 0.23 0.19

1.00 0.90 -0.81 0.25 -0.83 0.65 0.69 -0.77 0.55

1.00 -0.73 0.20 -0.94 0.60 0.64 -0.90 0.48

1.00 -0.16 0.71 -0.55 -0.53 0.63 -0.42

1.00 -0.35 0.75 0.56 -0.23 0.86

1.00 -0.67 -0.67 0.89 -0.50

1.00 0.95 -0.66 0.94

1.00 -0.69 0.94

1.00 -0.56

1.00

Note : GPB: Pound Sterling; INR: Indian Rupee; Ruble: Russian Ruble;

AD: Australian Dollar; IRu: Indonesian Rupiah; SD: Singapore Dollar;

CaD: Canadian Dollar; Yen : Japanese Yen SLR: Sri Lankan Rupee;

Yuan: Chinese Yuan; PRu: Pakistan Rupee; Baht: Thai Baht.

246

FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

ascribed to the greater integration of the Asian markets led by large trade and capital flows in the region as well as greater interdependence of financial markets within the region. Some kind of a supply chain is emerging from the Asian region with Japan at the top of the chain supplying high value technological products. China is the major supplier of intermediate products, while India, besides being a supplier of intellectual capital, is emerging as supplier of inter mediate products. The financial mar kets, including the foreign exchange mar ket, are increasingly taking cognisance of the growing integration of the Indian economy with the rest of the world, particularly with the Asian region. The cross currency impact on the exchange rate of the Indian rupee is observed to be particularly pronounced for Japanese yen and Singapore dollar (Ranjan and Dhal, 1999). 6.110 Recognising the growing influence of cross currencies on Indian exchange rate, an issue that is of relevance is the impact of potential disorderly adjustments in the current global imbalances on the exchange rate of major currencies and the second round impact on the Indian rupee. The current global imbalances represent the large and increasing current account deficit (CAD) of the US that has been financed by surpluses elsewhere, especially emerging Asia, oil expor ting countr ies and Japan. As a percentage of GDP, the CAD of the US has almost doubled every 5 years since the early 1990s (Table 6.19). In contrast to the US that is dependent on the domestic demand, growth in Asia and other emerging economies since the late 1990s has been led by Table 6.19: Macroeconomic Parameters of the United States
(in per cent, annual average) Period GDP growth Current Account Deficit/ GDP 3 -1.3 -2.4 -1.1 -2.6 -5.0 -6.5 General Government Fiscal Balance/ GDP 4 -2.9 -2.4 -3.1 -0.2 -3.5 -2.6 SavingInvestment gap

external demand. The current accounts of China, other East Asian EMEs (Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan, Thailand) and the two island economies, viz, Hong Kong and Singapore have recorded large surpluses, especially since 1999. Another new source contributing to the global imbalances has been the large current account surpluses of oil exporting countries. The Middle East region recorded current account surplus of 18.1 per cent of GDP in 2006 mainly associated with higher oil revenues due to both higher prices and some expansion in production. With the size of these imbalances becoming large, concerns have been raised regarding its sustainability and possible disorderly unwinding. Further historical episodes of large and sustained imbalances and their reversals suggest that a market led realignment of real exchange rates can play an important role to demand rebalancing across countries to facilitate smooth unwinding (IMF, 2007). 6.111 An issue that is of relevance to India in this regard is the likely response of different nations to global imbalances and its impact on the Indian foreign exchange market. India has not contributed either positively or negatively to large current account deficit; Indias saving-investments have been by and large balanced (Table 6.20); the economy is domestic demand driven and generally Indias policies, including exchange rate are market oriented. Thus, India has been following policies which have not only served it well but also contributed to global stability (Reddy, 2006b). Any large and rapid adjustments in major currencies and related interest rates or current accounts of trading partners would impact the Indian Table 6.20: Savings-Investment Gap in Emerging Economies
(as % of GDP, annual average)

Country 1 China Hong Kong

1981-85 2 -0.1 3.9 -1.5 2.0 -1.7 -2.7 -2.9 -4.4

1986-90 3 -0.4 9.8 -2.5 1.5 4.1 7.6 4.6 -1.8

1991-95 1996-2000 4 1.5 3.2 -1.2 1.5 -1.1 -1.6 11.8 -5.3 5 3.2 1.1 -1.1 5.5 3.7 13.9 16.4 6.4

2001-05 6 2.4 * 8.6 0.2 6.7 2.6 * 19.7 * 23.6 4.5

1 1981-1985 1986-1990 1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006

2 3.3 3.3 2.5 4.1 2.4 3.3

5 -1.6 -2.2 -0.9 -2.2 -3.9

India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Singapore Thailand Note

Source : Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Depar tment of Commerce; World Development Indicators, World Bank; World Economic Outlook, IMF, various issues.

: * Average for four years 2001-04. Data for India pertain to financial year. Source : World Bank online database, Central Statistical Organisation, Government of India.

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REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

economy, though the impact on India may be less than many other emerging market economies. 6.112 It emerges from the above analysis that flexibility and pragmatism, rather than adherence to strict theoretical rules, is the order of the day in exchange rate policy in developing countries. It also underscores the need for central banks to keep instruments/policies in hand for use in difficult situations. On the whole, the Indian approach to exchange rate management has been described as ideal for Asia (Jalan, 2003). India has been able to effectively withstand periods of volatility in the foreign exchange market associated with several unexpected external and domestic developments (Mohan, 2006a). An important aspect of policy response to these various episodes of volatility has been market inter vention combined with monetar y and administrative measures to meet the threats to financial stability, while complementary or parallel recourse was taken to communications (Reddy, 2006e). Some illustrations of thoughtful communication include a speech in Goa by the then Deputy Governor in August 1997 to talk down the r upee; reassur ing statements on mar ket developments in the context of Asian crisis combined with a package of measures in tranches in 1997 and 1998; pre-emptive measures in the mid-1998 in the context of crisis in Russia; reassuring statements issued in the context of Kargil war in 1999; a combination of liquidity injection, reassur ing statements along with measures in the context of the 9/11; a combination of actions and measures at the time of sharp downward movement of Indian stock markets on May 17, 2004 coinciding with the political transition at the Centre; and to explain the impact of redemption of the India Millennium Deposits. Going forward, there will be a continuous need to adopt a combined strategy of liquidity management as well as exchange rate management for effective monetary management and shor t-ter m interest rate smoothening (Mohan, 2006a). Given the important role that foreign exchange intervention played during several earlier episodes, it would be useful to examine the effectiveness of central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market. VI. ISSUES RELATING TO CENTRAL BANK INTERVENTION IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET 6.113 Official exchange rate intervention refers to sales and purchases of foreign exchange by authorities in order to affect exchange rates. Globally, 248

the objective of intervention in the foreign exchange market has changed over the years. Under the Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates, interventions were used frequently to maintain the exchange rate within the prescribed margins. When the Bretton Woods system broke down in 1971, major industrial countries discontinued pegging their currencies to the US dollar, bringing in an era of floating exchange rates. In principle, freely floating exchange rates would rule out intervention by central banks. The central banks have, however, often intervened for a variety of reasons: (i) to influence trend movements in the exchange rates because they perceive long-run equilibrium values to be different from actual values; (ii) to maintain export competitiveness; (iii) to manage volatility to reduce risks in financial markets; and (iv) to protect the currency from speculative attack and crisis. 6.114 Intervention by most central banks in foreign exchange markets has become necessary is primarily because of the impor tance of capital flows in determining exchange rate movements as against trade balances and economic growth, which were important in the earlier days. In recent times, there has been a large increase in international capital movements. In emerging mar ket economies, particularly, these capital flows are very volatile, and largely sentiment driven exposing financial markets to large risks. In order to reduce the risks, authorities intervene to curb volatility. Secondly, unlike trade flows, capital flows in gross terms, which affect exchange rate can be several times higher than net flows on any day. Therefore, herding becomes unavoidable (Jalan, 2003). 6.115 In 1977, the IMF Executive Board laid down some guiding principles for intervention policy by central banks of member countries. In essence, these principles stated that countries should not manipulate their exchange rates to gain unfair competitive advantage over others, or to prevent balance of payment adjustment, but they should intervene to counter disorderly market conditions. It is difficult to define disorderly market conditions but they are generally taken to refer to management of exchange rate volatility. While intervention by central banks in the foreign exchange market has come to be accepted as being consistent with a fully flexible exchange rate system, there is still no consensus on the effectiveness of central bank intervention. 6.116 Theoretically, intervention is categorised into sterilised and non-sterilised. Sterilised intervention occurs when the purchase or sale of foreign currency

FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

is offset by a corresponding sale or purchase of domestic government debt to eliminate the effects on domestic money supply. Unsterilised intervention occurs when the authorities purchase or sell foreign exchange, normally against their own currency, without such offsetting actions. There are differing effects of sterilised and unsterilised intervention on the net foreign assets (NFA) and net domestic assets (NDA) of the central bank and on money supply (M) (Table 6.21). 6.117 There is near agreement that non-sterilised intervention directly influences the exchange rate through the monetary channel. Any purchase of foreign exchange (i.e., intervention) if left unsterilised will impact the monetary base (rises), which, in turn, induces changes in the broader monetary aggregates, interest rates, real demand for goods and assets and ultimately the exchange rate (depreciates). 6.118 In so far as ster ilised inter vention is concerned, the proponents of monetary approach claim that it is ineffective. The literature, however, identifies three possible channels through which even sterilised intervention would work: (a) por tfolio balance channel under which domestic and foreign bonds are assumed to be imperfect substitutes, and Table 6.21 : Effects of Foreign Exchange Intervention
Intervention 1 Non-sterilised foreign exchange intervention (Purchase) Sterilised foreign exchange intervention (Purchase) Non-sterilised foreign exchange intervention (Sale) Sterilised foreign exchange intervention (Sale) Effects on NFA 2 Effects on NDA 3 Effects on M 4

inter vention, even though ster ilised, impacts exchange rate by changing the relative supplies of bonds; (b) signalling channel where sterilised purchase of foreign currency will lead to a depreciation of the exchange rate if the foreign currency purchase is assumed to signal a more expansionary domestic monetary policy and vice versa 12 ; and (c) more recently, the noise-trading channel, according to which, a central bank can use sterilised interventions to induce noise traders to buy or sell currency (Kortian, 1995). Even if an intervention has only a temporary effect, it can still lead to noise traders assuming that the trend has been broken and induce investors to take positions in line with the central banks intentions13 . 6.119 Recognising the fact that non-sterilised intervention significantly impacts exchange rates, most studies on central bank intervention have attempted to examine whether sterilised intervention has had a quantitatively significant effect on the exchange rate, i.e., an effect that is predictable, sizeable, and lasting. It has also been observed that while empirical evidence on the effectiveness of central bank intervention is available in large numbers for some specific developed countries, the evidence on foreign exchange intervention in developing countries, including India is weak 14 . Most of the previous empirical studies have been inconclusive as to the validity of the different transmission mechanisms (Edison,1993 and Sarno and Taylor, 2001). While the portfolio balance channel has received little empirical support, the evidence in favour of the signaling channel is somewhat more supportive (Table 6.22). 6.120 In the Indian context, empirical evidence on the effectiveness of sterilised intervention through the portfolio balance channel has been found to be limited for the period April 1996 to March 1999 (Bhaumik and Mukhopadhyay, 2000). As regards signaling channel, studies have shown that the Reserve Bank has used intervention though not very significantly for signaling the future course of monetary policy (Sahadevan, 2002). The use of profitability analysis to gauge the success of intervention has also been inconclusive in the Indian case (Pattanaik and Sahoo, 2001).

+ +

0 0 + 0 : No Impact.

+ 0 0

+ : Positive Impact. : Negative Impact. NFA : Net foreign assets. NDA : Net domestic assets. M : Money supply.

12 13

For the signalling channel to be effective, there must be asymmetric information between the market participants and the central bank. For the noise-trading to work successfully, however, the central bank must not only have up to date market intelligence and familiarity with noise-traders reaction functions, but also must be capable of conducting intervention secretly and deftly. The major reason for the lack of empirical evidence for developing countries is that the availability of data on intervention and exchange rate expectations in the case of developing countries is very low (Edison, 1993).

14

249

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Table 6.22: Major Findings of Recent Studies on Central Bank Intervention

Author(s) I. Portfolio balance channel Frankel (1982) Danker et al. (1987) Lewis (1988) Dominguez Frankel (1993) No empirical support for portfolio balance model in a mean-variance optimisation framework. Mixed evidence on the impact of sterilised intervention. Limited support for the portfolio balance model. Intervention variables were observed to have statistically significant explanatory power in a regression for risk premium. This study provides strong support in favour of a significant portfolio balance effect for the first time though the effect was quite weak. Major Findings

II. Signaling channel Dominguez (1990) Lindberg (1994) Provides evidence towards intervention anticipating monetary policy. Concludes that sterilised interventions might have effects on exchange rates through the signaling channel though the channel is fragile. Using a regime switching model, found inconclusive evidence as to whether intervention correctly signaled changes in monetary policy. Examined the links between intervention, monetary policy and exchange rates and found evidence that monetary policy influenced exchange rates. Observed that dollar support intervention is not related to changes in expectations over the stance of future monetary policy proxied by federal funds futures rate.

Kaminsky and Lewis (1996)

Lewis (1995)

Fatum and Hutchison (1999)

III. Noise trading channel Goodhart and Hesse (1993) Provides some supportive evidence towards impact of intervention on exchange rate via noisetrading channel.

IV. Intervention and profitability Christopher J Neely (2002) Observed that high frequency evidence disapproves the hypothesis that intervention generates trading rule profits.

V. Intervention and volatility Baillie and Osterberg (1997) Little support is obtained for the hypothesis that intervention can consistently influence the level of the exchange rate. Any significant effect is usually of the leaning against the wind variety, with dollar purchases depreciating the dollar. Further, intervention tends to increase volatility rather than calm disorderly markets, with the effects differing between currencies and between the buying of US dollars as opposed to the selling of US dollars.

6.121 Empirical evidence in the Indian case, however, suggests that in the present day of managed float regime, intervention can serve as a potent instrument in containing the magnitude of exchange rate volatility of the rupee even though the degree of influence may not be strong (Pattanaik and Sahoo, 2001). Studies in the Indian context have observed a positive response of direct intervention activity during exchange rate volatility, with the intervention activity subsiding once a re-alignment has taken place (Kohli, 2000). Besides, significant asymmetry has been 250

observed in the volatility response to market pressure with heightened volatility leading to depreciating pressure on the r upee (RBI, 2002-03). This underscores the importance of intervention by the central bank to manage volatility. Reserve Banks Intervention and Sterilisation 6.122 As observed during the various episodes of exchange rate volatility in India, the Reserve Bank has been intervening in the foreign exchange market

FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

to curb volatility arising due to demand-supply mismatch in the domestic foreign exchange market. Sale of dollars in the foreign exchange market is generally guided by excess demand conditions that may arise due to several factors. Similarly, the Reserve Bank purchases dollars from the market when there is an excess supply pressure. There is some evidence of co-movement in demand-supply mismatch proxied by the difference between the purchase and sale transactions in the merchant segment of the spot market and intervention by the Reserve Bank (Chart VI.10) 15 . Thus, the Reserve Bank has been prepared to make sales and purchases of foreign currency in order to curb volatility, even out lumpy demand and supply in the foreign exchange market and to smoothen jerky movements, while allowing the rupee to move in both directions. However, such intervention is generally not governed by any pre-determined target or band around the exchange rate (Jalan, 1999). 6.123 Capital movements have rendered exchange rates significantly more volatile than before. Large capital inflows have made the central bank more active in the foreign exchange market, forcing the Reserve Bank to release rupees for buying dollars. It is pertinent to note that capital flows in the recent period have been dominated by non-debt creating flows resulting in an increase in the proportion of non-debt flows (Table 6.23). An analysis of the movement of exchange rate and net purchases of the Reserve Bank shows that the intervention operation does not
(per cent to total) Annual average Indicator\Period 1 1. Non-debt Creating Flows a) Foreign Direct Investment b) Portfolio Investment 2. Debt Creating Flows a) External Assistance b) External Commercial Borrowings c) Short- term Credits d) NRI Deposits e) Rupee Debt Service 3. Other Capital Total (1 to 3) 1990-91 to 1996-97 2 41.9 15.9 26.0 52.4 32.4 19.1 -3.1 21.6 -17.7 5.7 100.0 1997-98 to 2002-03 3 58.3 40.2 18.1 34.8 2.9 18.3 -0.1 20.6 -6.9 6.9 100.0 2003-04 to 2005-06 4 78.1 26.6 51.5 22.1 -0.6 4.8 9.8 10.1 -2.1 -0.2 100.0 2003-04 5 93.7 25.8 67.9 -6.0 -16.5 -17.5 8.5 21.8 -2.2 12.3 100.0 2004-05 6 54.6 21.4 33.2 35.2 7.2 19.4 13.5 -3.4 -1.5 10.2 100.0 2005-06 7 86.1 32.7 53.7 37.0 7.5 12.7 7.3 11.9 -2.4 -23.1 * 100.0

Table 6.23: India's Capital Flows: Composition

* : The negative share of other capital during 2005-06 indicates that payments on account of India's investment abroad were more than the capital inflows through 'non NRI banking channel' and 'other capital'. Source : Reserve Bank of India.

15

A positive correlation of 0.7 is also found in the case of demand-supply mismatch and net RBI purchases.

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REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

necessarily influence so much the level of rupee. Empirical analysis, however, reveals that while FII investments have contributed towards increasing volatility, intervention by the Reserve Bank has been effective in reducing volatility in the Indian foreign exchange market16. 6.124 Intervention by the Reserve Bank to neutralise the impact of excess foreign exchange inflows resulted in the increase in the foreign currency assets (FCA) continuously. In order to offset the effect of increase in FCA on monetary base, the Reserve Bank has been continuously mopping up the excess liquidity from the system through open market operations (Chart VI.11). 6.125 While analysing the impact of sterilisation, it is pertinent to examine whether the contraction of net domestic assets (NDA) through open market sales to sterilise initial capital flows has exerted pressure on interest rates, leading in turn, to further capital inflows.

In the Indian case, empirical evidence for the period 1995-2004 suggests a unidirectional causality from changes in NFA to NDA, and more specifically from NFA to net Reserve Bank credit to the Centre, with sterilisation coefficient being 0.63, i.e., Rs.100 increase in foreign currency purchases from ADs induces sterilisation operations involving sales of government securities amounting to Rs.63 from the Reserve Bank (RBI, 2003-04). Thus, the Reserve Bank, through its sterilisation operations, has been effective in offsetting the impact of foreign capital inflows and keeping the domestic monetar y aggregates close to the desired trajectory for most of the period. It is, however, pertinent to note that Reserve Banks intervention in the foreign exchange market has been relatively small in terms of volume (less than 1 per cent) during 2005-06 and 2006-07 (up to February 2007). The largest gross intervention by the Reserve Bank was in 2003-04 accounting for about 4 per cent of the turnover in the foreign exchange mar ket (Table 6.24). The extent of intervention by the Reserve Bank in the foreign exchange market also remains low when compared Table 6.24 : Extent of RBI Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market
Year RBI Intervention Foreign Exchange Column 2 over 3 in Foreign Market Turnover (in per cent) Exchange (US $ billion) Market (US $ billion) 2 45.6 80.4 41.9 22.3 3 1560 2118 2892 4413 5734 4 2.9 3.8 1.4 0.5 0.4

1 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06

2006-07 24.5 (up to February 2007) Source : Reserve Bank of India.

16

ht = 0.76 - 0.00001Invrt +0.00004FIIt - 0.71Dumt +0.392 t-1 + 0.50ht-1 (2.46)* (-2.00)* (2.17)* (-2.42)* (2.53)* (4.12)* 2 R = 0.25; DW = 2.19; Wald Stat = 0.77 (prob.:0.38); Log likelihood =-158.99

Note: Figures in the parentheses are the t-statistics. * denotes significance at 5 per cent level. ht = time varying volatility of rupee-dollar exchange rate return t = ARCH term Invr = net purchases of the Reserve Bank of India FII = foreign institutional investors investments Dum= Dummy variable to capture the 1997 crises and RBIs policy stance 0 up to July 1998 and 1 for August 1998 onwards. Sample: June 1995 to June 2006.

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FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

with other EMEs, suggesting the predominant role of market forces in the determination of the external value of the rupee. 6.126 In general, apart from increased exchange rate flexibility, a number of steps have been taken to manage the excess capital flows, including a phased liberalisation of the policy framework in relation to current as well as capital accounts; flexibility to corporates on prepayment of external commercial borrowings; extension of foreign currency account facilities to other residents; allowing banks to liberally invest abroad in high quality instruments; liberalisation of norms for overseas investment by corporates and liberalising surrender requirements for exporter. The Annual Policy Statement for 2007-08, released on April 24, 2007 announced a host of measures to liberalise overseas investments such as (i) enhancement of the overseas investment limit for Indian companies to 300 per cent of their net worth from the existing limit of 200 per cent; (ii) introduction of a revised repor ting framework on overseas investments; (iii) enhancing the limit of listed Indian companies for portfolio investment abroad in listed overseas companies to 35 per cent of net worth from 25 per cent; (iv) enhancing the aggregate ceiling on overseas investment by mutual funds to US $ 4 billion from US $ 3 billion; (v) allowing prepayment of external commercial borrowings (ECBs) up to US $ 400 million as against the existing limit of US $ 300 million by ADs without prior approval of the Reserve Bank; and (vi) enhancing the limit for individuals for any permitted current or capital account transaction from US $ 50,000 to US $ 100,000 per financial year in the liberalised remittance scheme. 6.127 A major instrument of managing capital flows in India has been sterilisation. After examining the various instruments used in India and in other countries and assessing the trade-offs involved in the choice of such instruments to deal with the emerging situation and the extent of their use, the MSS as alluded to earlier was introduced in April 2004 wherein Government of India dated securities/Treasury Bills are issued to absorb liquidity. Proceeds of the MSS are immobilised in a separate identifiable cash account maintained and operated by the Reserve Bank, which is used only for redemption and/or buyback of MSS securities. The Reserve Bank actively manages liquidity through open market operations, including market stabilisation scheme, liquidity adjustment facility and cash reserve ratio, and other policy instruments at its disposal flexibly, as and when the situation warrants. 253

VII. THE WAY FORWARD 6.128 The Indian foreign exchange market has undergone transformation from a closed and heavily controlled setting of the 1970s and the 1980s to a more open and market oriented regime since the mid1990s. The foreign exchange market, which witnessed deregulation in conjunction with current account convertibility and liberalisation of capital controls in many areas, lent considerable support to the external sector reform process. The criticality of a wellfunctioning market with its ability to trade and settle transactions in new products and adapt itself quickly to the changing regulator y and competitive environment has been demonstrated well in the Indian context. The bid-ask spread of rupee/US dollar rate has almost converged with that of other major currencies in the international market. On some occasions, in fact, the bid-ask spread of rupee/US dollar rate was lower than that of some major currencies (Mohan, 2007). Contrary to the experience of many EMEs in this regard, the absence of a functioning market has never been a constraint in undertaking reforms in India. The Reserve Bank intervenes in the foreign exchange market primarily to prevent excessive volatility and disorder ly conditions. Such intervention is not motivated by any pre-determined target or band around the exchange rate. The objective is to keep market movements orderly and ensure that there is no liquidity problem or rumour/panic-induced volatility. Indias approach of market determination of the exchange rate, flexibility, combined with intervention, as felt necessary, has served it well so far (Mohan, 2006a). 6.129 Moving forward, fur ther initiatives for developing the Indian foreign exchange market need to be aligned with the external sector reforms, particularly the move towards (a) further liberalisation of the existing capital controls, for which a fresh roadmap has been provided by the Committee on FCAC; (b) reforms in other segments of the financial market; and (c) greater integration of the economy with the outside world. These, among other things, would imply that (i) an increasing number of Indian corporates will become global players; and (ii) more and more non-resident entities operating in India will be exposed to risks related to changes in exchange rates and interest rates. 6.130 With the Indian economy progressively moving towards fuller capital account convertibility in the coming years and getting increasingly integrated with the global economy, the foreign exchange market is likely to see a significant rise in volumes and liquidity

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in the spot and derivative segments. With the availability of a large pool of global capital seeking avenues to participate in economies with high growth potential, inflows into India are likely to continue in view of its stable macroeconomic conditions and positive growth outlook. The Indian foreign exchange market, therefore, will have to prepare itself to deal with such large capital inflows. This would need further deepening of the foreign exchange market. A key issue in managing the capital account is credibility and consistency in macroeconomic policies and the building up of safety nets in a gradually diminishing manner to provide comfort to the markets during the period of transition from an emerging market to a developed market. Improvement in Market Infrastructure 6.131 Against the backdrop of corporates in India going global, it is essential that the Indian foreign exchange market is able to provide them with the same types of products and services as are available in the major markets overseas. The agenda for the future should, therefore, include introduction of more instruments, more participants and improved market infrastructure in respect of trading and settlement. 6.132 The issues that could dominate the agenda for the next phase of development in the foreign exchange mar ket could be catalogued as: (i) introduction of more derivative products involving the rupee and more flexibility to both market makers and users to buy or sell these products; (ii) taking cognisance of the offshore derivative markets involving the rupee and weighing all the options in this regard (i.e., permitting these products onshore and permitting onshore entities to participate in the offshore markets); and (iii) relaxation of the current restrictions imposed on the entry of non-resident entities in the domestic foreign exchange market, par ticularly the derivatives segment. The main guiding principles for further liberalisation on the above lines could be summed up as: (i) entrenchment of modern risk management systems, procedures and governance in banks and their corporate clients; (ii) diversification of customer base with heterogeneous expectations; and (iii) adoption of accounting and disclosure norms in respect of derivatives by banks and their corporate clients, based on international best practices. Careful assessment will need to be made of the need for making progress in these issues, their sequencing, and consistency with the need of the real economy, and maintenance of financial stability. 254

Accounting Standards 6.133 The Indian accounting standards relating to derivatives are still in the process of being developed. Greater clarity is required in the area of derivative accounting in the books of corporates as well as banks with regard to revenue recognition and valuation of assets and liabilities. It may be, therefore, desirable to have convergence in the accounting standards for both foreign currency and INR derivatives and between on-balance sheet and off-balance sheet items. There is also a need to eliminate incentives to drive a wedge between on-balance sheet and offbalance sheet items (Gopinath, 2005). Moreover, further liberalisation requires banks to act responsibly in order to provide confidence to corporate entities going in for derivative transactions, in addition to complying with the regulations. In this context, customer suitability and appropriateness issue has assumed considerable significance. The recently issued guidelines on the transactions in derivative instruments in India accord high priority to the observance of customer suitability and appropriateness by market makers. The appropriateness standard ensures that banks use the same principles for taking credit decisions in respect of complex derivative transactions as they do for non-derivative transactions. Banks are expected to evaluate the purpose of the derivative transactions and make an assessment as to whether it is appropriate to the customers needs and level of sophistication. Only some banks have an appropriateness policy in place. It is, therefore, important that all banks introduce a customer suitability and appropriateness policy. Relaxation of the Cr iter ia of Under lying for Transactions 6.134 The Annual Policy Statement of the Reserve Bank for 2007-08 released in April 2007 announced several measures to expand the range of hedging tools available to market participants and facilitate dynamic hedging by residents as alluded to earlier. As the foreign exchange market matures, the criteria of underlying could be considered for fur ther relaxation to include economic exposures, i.e., exposures which may not relate directly to foreign exchange transactions, but are affected by movements in exchange rates. Interest Rate Parity 6.135 To encourage interest rate parity in the forward markets, the Committee on Fuller Capital Account Convertibility (2006) recommended more

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flexibility for banks to borrow and lend overseas on both short-term and long-term basis and to increase the limits. The Committee further observed that in order to ensure that banks are not exposed to additional risks because of their access to foreign markets, their access should continue to be allowed depending upon the strength of their balance sheets. Some other issues that have been highlighted by the Committee as agenda for future development of the foreign exchange market include (i) permitting FIIs the facility of cancelling and rebooking all forward contracts and other derivatives booked to hedge rupee exposures so as to minimise the influence of NDF markets abroad; and (ii) introduction of currency futures, subject to risks being contained through proper trading mechanism, design of contracts and regulatory environment. The Annual Policy Statement of the Reserve Bank for 2007-08 proposed the setting up of a Working Group on Currency Futures to suggest a suitable framework to operationalise the proposal in line with the current legal and regulatory framework. Reserve Management 6.136 Indias experience highlights the importance of managing foreign exchange reserves to take care of unforeseen contingencies, volatile capital flows and other developments, which can affect expectations adversely. As there is no international lender of last resort to provide additional liquidity at short notice on acceptable terms, the need for adequate reserves is unlikely to be eliminated or reduced even if exchange rates are allowed to float freely (Mohan, 2006a). Several factors such as vulnerability of the real sector to shocks, strength of the fiscal and financial sectors, current account balance, the changing composition of capital flows, a medium-term view of growth prospects encompassing business cycles and the exchange rate regime influence the comfort level of reserves. In a sense, official reserves have to reflect the balancing and comforting factors relative to external assets and liabilities in the context of a national balance sheet approach (Reddy, 2006d). Thus, the comfort level of reserves should not be viewed with respect to the current situation alone, but going forward should also reckon with the potential risks. Customer Service 6.137 In order to provide adequate foreign exchange facilities to common persons, it is necessary that a wide range of activities are available and that there 255

exist a number of Authorised Dealers. Accordingly, a few entities were licensed as AD (Category II), permitting them to release/remit foreign exchange for 17 non-trade related current account transactions. Existing full-fledged money changers (FFMCs), urban co-operative banks (UCBs), regional rural banks (RRBs), among others, are eligible for such license. Individuals and small enterprises may not have adequate access to competitive and efficient service relating to foreign exchange transactions. The exporters, particularly the small exporters, do need better advice on hedging their currency exposures in view of the two-way movement of the exchange rate. Banks, therefore, may have to consider devising hedging products, especially for the small and medium enterprises (SME) sector. Implications of Global Imbalances 6.138 A significant risk arises from the large and growing global financial imbalances. The speed at which the US current account ultimately returns towards balance, the tr iggers that dr ive that adjustment, and the way in which the burden of adjustment is allocated across the rest of the world have enormous implications for the global exchange rates. Any disorderly adjustments in major currencies and rise in interest rates would impact the Indian economy, though the impact is not expected to be significant compared to many other emerging market economies (Reddy, 2006b). Any disorderly adjustment in global imbalances may have some impact on corporates, banks and households in India, though their exposures, in aggregate, to the external sector are not significant. Nevertheless, there will be a need to be alert to unforeseen domestic and global shocks and proactively manage various risks to the foreign exchange market as they evolve. Managing Exchange Rate Volatility 6.139 As India progresses towards fuller capital account convertibility, it would have to contend with the impossible trinity of independent monetary policy, open capital account, and exchange rate regime. At best, only two out of the three would be feasible. With a more open capital account as a given if a choice is made of an anchor role for monetary policy, it will have to be at the expense of exchange rate objective. It needs to be recognised, however, that the impact of exchange rate changes on the real sector is significantly different for reserve currency countries and for EMEs such as India. In the reserve currency countries, which specialise in technology intensive

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

products, the degree of exchange rate pass-through is low, enabling exporters and importers to ignore temporary shocks and set stable product prices to maintain monopolistic positions, despite large currency fluctuations. Moreover, mature and welldeveloped financial markets in these countries have the wherewithal to absorb the risk associated with exchange rate fluctuations with minimal shocks to the real sector. On the other hand, for the most of developing countries, which specialise in labourintensive and low and inter mediate technology products, profit margins in the highly competitive mar kets for these products are ver y thin and vulnerable to pr icing power by retail chains. Consequently, exchange rate volatility has significant employment, output and distributional consequences. In this context, managing exchange rate volatility would continue to be an issue requiring attention, even when the exchange rate becomes more flexible. Greater Inter-linkages of Foreign Exchange Market with other Segments 6.140 Cross border flows to var ious mar ket segments, viz., the equity market, the money market and the government securities market are channelled through the foreign exchange market. In a regime of fuller capital account convertibility, financial flows across borders are expected to rise substantially. The effective management of these large inflows and outflows will depend considerably upon the development of not only the foreign exchange market but also on the efficient functioning of other segments of the domestic market. A pre-condition to develop proper/meaningful linkages between the foreign exchange and other domestic financial markets is to develop the term money market and a money market yield curve. This will improve the efficiency of the foreign exchange market by encouraging interest parity conditions in the forward market. The need for providing market participants with more instruments for hedging price risk by developing the interest rate futures market would also arise. Thus, with the opening up of the Indian economy, the linkages of the foreign exchange market with other segments of the financial market would need to be strengthened with better information flows (see also Chapter VIII). VIII. SUMMING UP 6.141 The Indian foreign exchange market has operated in a liberalised environment for more than a decade. A cautious and well-calibrated approach was followed while liberalising the foreign exchange market 256

with an emphasis on the need to safeguard against potential financial instability that could arise due to excessive speculation. The focus was on gradually dismantling controls and providing an enabling environment to all entities engaged in external transactions. The approach to liberalisation adopted by the Reserve Bank has been characterised by greater transparency, data monitoring and information dissemination and to move away from micro management of foreign exchange transactions to macro management of foreign exchange flows. The emphasis has been to ensure that procedural formalities are minimised so that individuals are able to conduct hassle free current account transactions and exporters and other users of the market are able to concentrate on their core activities rather than engage in avoidable paper work. With a view to maintaining the integrity of the market, strong knowyour-customer (KYC)/anti-money laundering (AML) guidelines have also been put in place. 6.142 Banks have been given significant autonomy to undertake foreign exchange operations. In order to deepen the foreign exchange market, several products have been introduced and new players have been allowed to enter the market. Full convertibility on the current account and extensive liberalisation of the capital account have resulted in large increase in transactions in foreign currency. These have also enabled the corporates to hedge various types of risks associated with foreign currency transactions. The impact of these reform initiatives is clearly discernible in terms of depth and efficiency of the market. 6.143 Exchange rate regimes do influence the regulatory framework when it comes to the issue of providing operational freedom to market participants in respect of their foreign exchange market operations. Notwithstanding a move towards greater exchange rate flexibility by most EMEs, almost all central banks in EMEs actively participate in their foreign exchange markets to maintain orderly conditions. While the use of risk management instruments is encouraged by many emerging mar kets for hedging genuine exposures linked to real and financial flows, their overall approach towards risk management has remained cautious with an emphasis on the need to safeguard against potential financial instability arising due to excessive speculation in the foreign exchange market. 6.144 In the coming years, the challenge for the Reserve Bank would be to further build up on the strength of the foreign exchange market and carry forward the reform initiatives, while simultaneously

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ensuring that orderly conditions prevail in the foreign exchange market. Besides, with the Indian economy moving towards further capital account liberalisation, the development of a well-integrated foreign exchange market also becomes important as it is through this market that cross-border financial inflows and outflows are channelled to other markets. Development of the

foreign exchange market also need to be co-ordinated with the capital account liberalisation. Reforms in the financial markets is a dynamic process and need to be harmonised with the evolving macroeconomic developments and the level of maturity of participating financial institutions and other segments of the financial market.

257

VII

EQUITY AND CORPORATE DEBT MARKET

7.1 The capital market fosters economic growth in various ways such as by augmenting the quantum of savings and capital formation and through efficient allocation of capital, which, in turn, raises the productivity of investment. It also enhances the efficiency of a financial system as diverse competitors vie with each other for financial resources. Further, it adds to the financial deepening of the economy by enlarging the financial sector and promoting the use of innovative, sophisticated and cost-effective financial instruments, which ultimately reduce the cost of capital. Well-functioning capital markets also impose discipline on firms to perform (Beck et al., 2000; Bandiera et al., 2000). Equity and debt markets can also diffuse stress on the banking sector by diversifying credit risk across the economy. 7.2 Although the capital market in India has a long history, during the most part, it remained on the periphery of the financial system. Various reforms undertaken since the early 1990s by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and the Gover nment have brought about a significant structural transformation in the Indian capital market. As a result, the Indian equity market has become modern and transparent. However, its role in capital for mation continues to be limited. The private corporate debt market is active mainly in the form of private placements, while the public issue market for corporate debt is yet to pick up. It is the primary equity and debt markets that link the issuers of securities and investors and provide resources for capital formation. In some advanced countries, especially the US, the new issue market has been quite successful in financing new companies and spurr ing the development of new technology companies. A growing economy requires r isk capital and long-ter m resources in the form of debt for enabling the corporates to choose an appropriate mix of debt and equity. Long-term resources are also important for financing infrastructure projects. Therefore, in order to sustain Indias high growth path, the capital market needs to play a major role. The significance of a wellfunctioning domestic capital mar ket has also increased as banks need to raise necessary capital from the market to sustain their growing operations. 7.3 This chapter is divided into four sections. Section I begins by discussing the role of the stock

market in financing economic growth. This is followed by a brief overview of measures initiated to reform the capital market since the early 1990s. It then assesses the impact of various reform measures on the efficiency and stability parameters such as size, liquidity, transaction cost and volatility. The performance has been assessed against international best standards, wherever possible. In this section, a brief discussion is also presented on the stock prices and wealth effect from the point of view of its impact on aggregate demand. Section II discusses the need for developing the private corporate bond market for promoting growth and creating multiple financing channels. It presents the evolution of the debt market in India from the mid-1980s onwards, and various factors affecting its growth. It then presents experiences of other countries in developing the private corporate debt market. Section III suggests measures to enhance the role of the primary capital market in general and the private corporate debt market in particular. The last section sets out the concluding observations. I. EQUITY MARKET Role of the Stock Market in Financing Economic Growth 7.4 A growing body of empirical research shows that stock market development matters for growth as access to exter nal capital allows financially constrained firms to expand. It is argued that countries with better-developed financial systems, especially those with liquid stock exchanges, tend to grow faster. On the other hand, Singh (1997) argues that stock mar ket expansion is not a necessar y natural progression of a countrys financial development and stock market development may not help in achieving quicker industr ialisation and faster long-ter m economic growth in most of the developing countries because of several reasons. First, because of inherent volatility and arbitrariness of the stock market, the resulting pricing process is a poor guide to efficient investment allocation. Second, in the wake of unfavourable economic shocks, the interactions between the stock and currency markets may exacerbate macroeconomic instability and reduce long-term economic growth. Third, stock market

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development is likely to undermine the role of existing banking systems in developing countries, which have not been without merit in several countries, not least in highly successful East Asian economies. 7.5 A study on financial development and economic growth suggests that stock markets and financial intermediaries have grown hand-in-hand in the emerging market economies, which is popularly attributed to complementarity hypothesis. Some other studies also find that the levels of banking development and stock market liquidity exert a positive influence on economic growth. Levine and Zervos (1998) provide information on the independent impact of stock markets and banks on economic growth, capital accumulation and productivity in their crosscountry study. They find that the initial level of stock market liquidity and the initial level of banking development are both positively and significantly correlated with future rates of economic growth, capital accumulation and productivity growth even after controlling for a few initial social, economic and political factors. These results do not lend much suppor t to models that emphasise the tensions between bank-based and market-based systems as they suggest that stock markets provide different financial functions from those provided by banks. However, Levine and Zervos do not find that stock market size, measured by market capitalisation divided by GDP, is robustly correlated with growth. This implies that simply listing on a stock exchange does not necessarily foster resource allocation. Instead, it is the ability to trade ownership of the economys productive technologies that influences resource allocation and growth (Levine, 2003). Similar results were obtained by Beck and Levine (2003) by using panel techniques. Industry level studies have also found a positive relationship between financial development and growth (Rajan and Zingales, 1998), but an increase in financial development dispropor tionately boosts the growth of those companies that are naturally heavy users of external finance. Using firm-level data, Demirguc-Kunt and Maksimovic (1998) show that the proportion of firms that grow at rates exceeding the rate at which each firm can grow with only retained earnings and shortterm borrowing is positively associated with stock market liquidity (and banking system size). Thus, there is ample literature supporting the role of financial development and the stock market in economic growth by easing external financing constraints. 7.6 Histor ically, different kinds of financial intermediaries have existed in the Indian financial system. Banks financed only wor king capital 259

requirements of corporates. As the capital market was underdeveloped, a number of development finance institutions (DFIs) were set up at the all-India and the State levels to meet the long-term requirement of funds. As the stock market played a limited role in the early stages, the relationship between the stock market and the real economy in India has not been widely examined. Most of the earlier empirical studies focused on banks role in financial deepening and development. More recent work suggests that the functional relationship between stock mar ket development and economic growth is weak in the Indian context (Nagaishi, 1999). On the contrary, Shah and Thomas (1997) argue that the stock market in India is more efficient than the banking system and hence an efficient capital market would contribute to long-term growth through efficient allocation and utilisation of resources. A revisit of this issue has found that both the banking sector and the stock market promote growth in the Indian economy and that they complement each other. However, the significance of the banking sector in economic development is much more important than the stock market, which has hitherto played only a limited role. The analysis found that economic growth also leads to stock market development. There is, thus, bi-directional relationship between stock market development and economic growth. These findings are, broadly, in sync with the complementary hypothesis (Box VII.1). Recent Developments in the Indian Equity Market 7.7 The Indian equity market has witnessed a series of reforms since the early 1990s. The reforms have been implemented in a gradual and sequential manner, based on international best practices, modified to suit the countrys needs. The reform measures were aimed at (i) creating growth-enabling institutions; (ii) boosting competitive conditions in the equity market through improved price discovery mechanism; (iii) putting in place an appropriate regulatory framework; (iv) reducing the transaction costs; and (v) reducing information asymmetry, thereby boosting the investor confidence. These measures were expected to increase the role of the equity market in resource mobilisation by enhancing the corporate sectors access to large resources through a variety of marketable securities. 7.8 Institutional development was at the core of the reform process. The Securities and Exchange Board of India, which was initially set up in April 1988 as a non-statutory body, was given statutory powers in January 1992 for regulating the securities markets.

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

Box VII.1 Does Stock Market Promote Economic Growth in India?

In order to establish the relationship of various components of the financial sector, viz., banking sector and stock market, with economic growth in India, regression technique has been used. As the monthly GDP series is not available, seasonally adjusted monthly index of industrial production (IIP) was used as a proxy for economic activity. Before carrying out the regression analysis using ordinary least square (OLS), the monthly data were adjusted for seasonality and then the variables were log transformed. As an indicator of the capital market development, mar ket capitalisation (MCAP) as a percentage of GDP, which measures the size of the market, and value traded ratio (VTR), which reflects the liquidity of the market, have been used. For the banking sector, bank credit (BCR) as a percentage of GDP has been taken as a measure of banking sector development. The period of the analysis was from April 1995 to June 2006. It is found that both the stock market and the banking sector abet the level of economic activity in the country (equation 1). However, the relationship between stock market and economic activity is not strong as the coefficients of stock market activity, viz., MCAP and VTR, though significant, are very small. On the other hand, bank credit plays a very significant role. This confirms the bank-dominated financial system in India.
LIIP = 1.27 + 0.02 LMCAP + 0.02 LVTR + 0.43 LBCR + 0.47 AR(1) - (Equation 1) (16.9) (2.2) (5.0) (34.4) (6.0)

Adjusted R2 = 0.99; F-statistics = 3240.7; DW Statistics =2.24 (Figures in parentheses represent t-statistics.)

It is also found that both the banking sector and the economic growth promote stock market activity in India (equation 2).
LMCAP = -9.01 + 1.25 LIIP + 1.32 LBCR + 0.89 AR(1) (-3.2) (2.7) (4.7) (25.9) - (Equation 2)

Adjusted R 2 = 0.97; F-statistics = 904.6; DW Statistics =2.28 (Figures in parentheses represent t-statistics.)

References: Shah, A., and Susan Thomas. 1997. Securities Markets: Towards Greater Efficiency. India Development Report, Oxford University Press. Nagaishi, M. 1999. Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: Dubious Relationship. Economic and Political Weekly, July 17.

SEBI was given the twin mandate of protecting investors interests and ensur ing the order ly development of the capital market. 7.9 The most significant reform in respect of the primary capital market was the introduction of free pricing. The Capital Issues (Control) Act, 1947 was repealed in 1992 paving the way for market forces in the determination of pricing of issues and allocation of resources for competing uses. The issuers of securities were allowed to raise capital from the market without requiring any consent from any authority for either making the issue or pricing it. Restrictions on rights and bonus issues were also removed. All companies are now able to price issues based on market conditions. 7.10 Without seeking to control the freedom of the issuers to enter the market and freely price their issues, the norms for public issues were made stringent in April 1996 to prevent fraudulent companies from accessing the market. Issuers of capital are now required to disclose information on various aspects such as track record of profitability, risk factors, etc. As a result, there has been an improvement in the standards of disclosure in the offer documents for the public and rights issues and easier accessibility of information to the investors. The improvement in disclosure 260

standards has enhanced transparency, thereby improving the level of investor protection. 7.11 Issuers also have the option of raising resources through fixed price mechanism or the book building process. Book-building is a process by which demand for the securities proposed to be issued is built-up and the price for securities is assessed for determination of the quantum of such securities to be issued. Book building was introduced to improve the transparency in pricing of the scrips and determine proper market price for shares. 7.12 Trading infrastructure in the stock exchanges has been modernised by replacing the open outcry system with on-line screen based electronic trading. This has improved the liquidity in the Indian capital market and led to better price discovery. The trading and settlement cycles were initially shortened from 14 days to 7 days. Subsequently, to enhance the efficiency of the secondary market, rolling settlement was introduced on a T+5 basis. With effect from April 1, 2002, the settlement cycle for all listed securities was shortened to T+3 and further to T+2 from April 1, 2003. Shortening of settlement cycles helped in reducing risks associated with unsettled trades due to market fluctuations. 7.13 The setting up of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE) as an electronic trading platform set

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a benchmark of operating efficiency for other stock exchanges in the country. The establishment of National Securities Depository Ltd. (NSDL) in 1996 and Central Depository Services (India) Ltd. (CSDL) in 1999 has enabled paper less trading in the exchanges. This has also facilitated instantaneous electronic transfer of securities and eliminated the risks to the investors arising from bad deliveries in the market, delays in share transfer, fake and forged shares and loss of scrips. The electronic fund transfer (EFT) facility combined with dematerialisation of shares created a conducive environment for reducing the settlement cycle in stock markets. 7.14 The improvement in clearing and settlement system has brought a substantial reduction in transaction costs. Several measures were also undertaken to enhance the safety and integrity of the market. These include capital requirements, trading and exposure limits, daily margins comprising markto-market margins and VaR based margins. Trade/ settlement guarantee fund has also been set up to ensure smooth settlement of transactions in case of default by any member. 7.15 Trading in derivatives such as stock index futures, stock index options and futures and options in individual stocks was introduced to provide hedging options to the investors and to improve price discovery mechanism in the market. 7.16 Another significant reform has been a move towards corporatisation and demutualisation of stock exchanges. Stock exchanges all over the world have been traditionally formed as mutual organisations. The trading members not only provide broking services, but also own, control and manage such exchanges for their mutual benefit. In India, NSE was set up as a demutualised corporate body, where ownership, management and trading rights are in hands of three different sets of groups from its inception. The Stock Exchange, Mumbai, one of the two premier exchanges in the country, has since been corporatised and demutualised and renamed as the Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd. (BSE). 7.17 The stock exchanges have put in place a system for redressal of investor grievances for matters relating to trading members and companies. They ensure that critical and price-sensitive information reaching the exchange is made available to all classes of investor at the same point of time. Further, to protect the interests of investors, the Investor Protection Fund (IPF) has also been set up by the stock exchanges. The exchanges maintain an IPF to take care of 261

investor claims, which may arise out of non-settlement of obligations by the trading member, who has been declared a defaulter, in respect of trades executed on the exchange. Measures of investor protection that have been put in place over the reform period have led to increased confidence among investors. The World Bank in its survey of Doing Business has worked out an investor protection index, which measures the strength of minority shareholders against directors misuse of corporate assets for his/ her personal gain (World Bank, 2006). The index is the average of the disclosure index, director liability index, and shareholder suits index. The index ranges from 1 to 10, with higher values indicating better investor protection. Based on this index, India fares better than a large number of economies, including even some of the developed ones such as France and Germany (Chart VII.1). 7.18 Corporate Governance has emerged as an important tool for protection of shareholders. The corporate governance framework in India has evolved over a period of time since the setting up of the Kumar Mangalam Birla Committee by SEBI. According to the Economic Intelligence Unit Survey of 2003, corporate governance across the countries, India was rated the third best country to have good corporate governance code after Singapore and Hong Kong. India has a reasonably well-designed regulatory framework for the issuance and trading of securities, and disclosures by the issuers with strong focus on cor porate governance standards.

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7.19 To improve the availability of information to investors, all listed companies are required to publish unaudited financial results on a quarterly basis. To enhance the level of continuous disclosure by the listed companies, SEBI amended the listing agreement to incorporate segment reporting, related party disclosures, consolidated financial results and consolidated financial statements. The listing agreement between the stock exchanges and the companies has been strengthened from time to time to enhance corporate governance standards. 7.20 Another important development of the reform process was the opening up of mutual funds industry to the private sector in 1992, which earlier was the monopoly of the Unit Trust of India (UTI) and mutual funds set up by public sector financial institutions. 7.21 Since 1992, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) were per mitted to invest in all types of securities, including corporate debt and government securities in stages and subject to limits. Further, the Indian corporate sector was allowed to access international capital markets through American Depository Receipts (ADRs), Global Depository Receipts (GDRs), Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds (FCCBs) and External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs). Eligible foreign companies have been permitted to raise money from domestic capital markets through issue of Indian Depository Receipts (IDRs). 7.22 Regulations governing substantial acquisition of shares and takeovers of companies have also been put in place. These are aimed at making the takeover process more transparent and to protect the interests of minority shareholders. 7.23 Besides strengthening the institutional design of the markets, the reforms have also brought about an increase in the number of service providers who add value to the market. The most significant development in this respect has been the setting up of credit rating agencies. By assigning ratings to debt instruments and by continuous monitoring and dissemination of the ratings, they help in improving the quality of information. At present, four credit rating agencies are operating in India. Besides, two other service providers, viz., registrars to issue and share transfer agents, have also grown in number, which help in spreading the ser vices easily and at competitive prices. 7.24 The regulatory ambit has been widened in tune with the emerging needs and developments in the equity markets. Apart from stock exchanges, various intermediaries such as mutual funds, stock 262

brokers and sub-brokers, merchant bankers, portfolio managers, registrars to an issue, share transfer agents, underwriters, debentures trustees, bankers to an issue, custodian of securities, venture capital funds and issuers have been brought under the SEBIs regulatory purview. Impact of Reforms on the Equity Market 7.25 The Indian equity market has witnessed a significant improvement, since the reform process began in the early 1990s, in ter ms of various parameters such as size of the market, liquidity, transparency, stability and efficiency. The changes in regulatory and governance framework have brought about an improvement in investor confidence. 7.26 The most commonly used indicator of stock market development is the size of the market, measured by stock market capitalisation (the value of listed shares on the countrys exchanges) to GDP ratio. This ratio has improved significantly in India in recent years (Char t VII.2). Apar t from new listings, the ratio may go up because of rise in stock prices. While during 1994-95 to 1999-00, 3,434 initial public offers (IPOs) amounting to Rs.37,626 crore were floated, during 2000-01 to 2005-06, 250 IPOs amounting to Rs.43,290 crore were floated. In 2006-07, 75 IPOs amounting to Rs.27,524 crore entered the market. The size of the market is influenced by several factors, including improvement in macroeconomic fundamentals, changes in financial technology and increase in institutional

EQUITY AND CORPORATE DEBT MARKET

efficiency. A cross-country study has identified that in the case of India, the equity market size has expanded mostly because of change in financial technology, followed by change in macroeconomic fundamentals, while change in institutional efficiency had no impact on the market size (Li, 2007). 7.27 While the size of the Indian equity market still remains much smaller than many advanced economies such as the US, UK, Australia and Japan, it is significantly higher than many other emerging market economies, including Brazil and Mexico (Chart VII.3). 7.28 The turnover ratio (TOR), which equals the total value of shares traded on a countrys stock exchange divided by stock market capitalisation, is a commonly used measure of trading activity or liquidity in the stock markets. The turnover ratio measures trading relative to the size of the market. All things equal, therefore, differences in trading frictions will influence the turnover ratio. Another related variable is the value traded ratio (VTR), which equals the total value of domestic stocks traded on domestic exchanges as a share of GDP. This ratio measures trading relative to the size of the economy. Both TOR and VTR have improved significantly as compared to the early 1990s (Table 7.1). These ratios touched high levels between 1996-97 and 2000-01. This, however, largely reflected the impact of sharp rise in stock prices due to the IT boom. The price effect may lead to an increase in the liquidity ratios by boosting the value of stock transactions even without a rise in the number of transactions or a fall

Table 7.1: Liquidity in the Stock Market in India

(Per cent) Year 1 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 Turnover Ratio 2 32.7 20.3 20.0 21.1 14.7 20.5 85.8 98.0 126.5 167.0 409.3 134.0 162.9 133.4 97.7 78.9 81.8 Value Traded Ratio 3 6.3 11.0 6.1 9.8 6.9 9.9 30.6 38.0 41.7 78.1 111.3 36.0 37.9 57.9 53.1 66.9 70.7

in transaction costs. Fur ther, liquidity may be concentrated among larger stocks. 7.29 The turnover ratio exhibits substantial crosscountry variations (Chart VII.4). The turnover ratio of NSE in 2005 was lower than that in NASDAQ, Korea, Japan, China and Thailand, but significantly higher than that of Singapore, Hong Kong, and Mexico stock exchanges. Automation of trading in stock exchanges has increased the number of trades and the number

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of shares traded per day, which, in turn, has helped in lowering transaction costs. The spread of trading terminals across the country has also aided in giving access to investors in the stock market. The opening of the Indian equity market to foreign institutional investors (FIIs) and growth in assets of mutual funds might have also contributed to the increased liquidity in the Indian stock exchanges. 7.30 Apart from the frequency of trading, liquidity can also be measured by frictionless trading, proxied by the transaction cost. Transaction costs are of two types direct and indirect. Direct costs arise from costs incurred while transacting a trade such as fees, commissions, taxes, etc. These costs are directly observable in the market. In addition, there are indirect costs that are not directly observable but can be derived from the speed and efficiency of execution of trades. These can be captured by estimating impact cost or cost of executing a transaction on a stock exchange, which var ies with the size of the transaction. A liquid market is one where transaction costs (indirect) are low. The impact cost for purchase or sale of Rs.50 lakh of the Nifty portfolio dropped steadily and sharply from a level of 0.12 per cent in 2002 to 0.08 per cent in 2006, while in the case of purchase or sale of Rs.25 lakh of the Nifty Junior portfolio, the impact cost dropped from a level of 0.41 per cent in 2002 to 0.16 per cent in 2006 (Chart VII.5). Besides, even in terms of direct costs that the participants have to pay as fee to the broker and the exchange, and the securities transaction tax, the

charges in India are among the lowest in the world (Government of India, 2005-06). As per the SEBINCAER Survey of Indian Investors, 2003, there has been a substantial reduction in transaction cost in the Indian securities market, which declined from a level of more than 4.75 per cent in 1994 to 0.60 per cent in 1999, close to the global best level of 0.45 per cent. Further, the Indian equity market had the third lowest transaction cost after the US and Hong Kong. As compared with some of the developed and emerging markets, transaction costs for institutional investors on the Indian stock exchanges are also one of the lowest. 7.31 In all developed markets, stock markets provide mechanisms for hedging. Derivatives have increasingly gained popularity as instruments of risk management. By locking-in asset prices, derivative products enable market participants to partially or fully transfer price risks. Equity derivatives were introduced in India in 2000. Since then, India has been able to build a modern and transparent derivatives market in a relatively short period of time. The turnover in derivative market has also risen sharply, though a large part of the trading is concentrated in single stock futures (Chart VII.6). In several other countries, it is index futures and options, which are the most popular derivative products. The number of stocks on which individual stock derivatives are traded has gone up steadily from 31 in 2001 to 117 at present, which has helped in percolating liquidity and market efficiency down to a wide range of stocks.

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7.32 According to the World Federation of Stock Exchanges, NSE was the leader in the trading of single stock futures in 2006, while in the trading of index futures, NSE was at the fourth position (Table 7.2). Table 7.2: Top Five Equity Derivative Exchanges in the world - 2006
A. Single Stock Futures Contracts Exchange National Stock Exchange, India Jakarta Stock Exchange, Indonesia Eurex Euronext.liffe BME Spanish Exchange B. Stock Index Futures Contracts Exchange Chicago Mercantile Exchange Eurex Euronext.liffe National Stock Exchange, India Korea Stock Exchange Source : World Federation of Exchanges. No. of contracts 470,180,198 270,134,951 72,135,006 70,286,258 46,562,881 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 No. of contracts 100,430,505 69,663,332 35,589,089 29,515,726 21,120,621 Rank 1 2 3 4 5

were able to contain the impact of volatile movement in stock prices on May 17, 2004 and May 22, 2006 without any disruption in financial markets. 7.34 The Indian equity market, however, has been somewhat more volatile as compared with some other markets such as the US, Singapore and Malaysia (Table 7.3). 7.35 Significant improvement has also taken place in clearing and settlement mechanism in India. Out of a score of 100, the settlement benchmark, which

7.33 The Indian stock markets have also become less volatile due to the strengthening of the market design. This is reflected in sharp decline in the volatility in stock prices (Chart VII.7). The robustness of the risk management practices at the stock exchange level was also evident as the exchanges

Table 7.3: Volatility in Select World Stock Markets

Year 1 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 US 2 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.1 0.7 0.7 UK 3 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.6 Hong Kong 4 1.4 1.4 1.9 1.3 1.1 2.5 2.8 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.7 Singapore 5 0.9 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.8 1.5 2.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.6 Malaysia 6 0.8 1.1 1.8 1.1 0.8 2.4 3.2 1.8 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 Brazil 7 7.0 3.4 3.9 3.4 1.4 3.0 3.5 2.9 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.6 Mexico 8 1.6 1.3 1.8 2.3 1.2 1.8 2.3 1.9 2.2 1.5 1.4 1.1 0.9 1.1 Japan 9 1.2 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.4 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.0 0.8 India 10 3.3 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.8 2.2 1.7 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.1

Source : Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Securities Market, 2006, SEBI.

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provides a means of tracking the evolution of settlement performance over a period of time, improved from 8.3 in 1994 to 93.1 in 2004. The safekeeping benchmark, which provides the efficiency of a market in terms of collection of dividend and interest, protection of rights in the event of a corporate action, improved from 71.8 in 1994 to 91.8 in 2004. The operational risk benchmark that takes into consideration the settlement and safekeeping benchmarks and other operational factors such as the level of compliance with G30 recommendations, the complexity and effectiveness of the regulatory and legal structure of the market, and counterparty risk, improved from 28.0 out of 100 in 1994 to 67.2 in 2004 (NSE, 2005). 7.36 Despite significant improvement in trading and settlement infrastructure, risk management system, liquidity and containment of volatility, the role of the Indian capital market (equity and debt) has remained less significant as is reflected in the savings in the form of capital market instruments and resources raised by the corporates. Savings of the household sector in the form of shares and debentures and units of mutual funds have remained at a low level, barring the period from 1990-91 to 1994-95, when they were relatively high. It is also significant to note that the share of savings in capital market instruments (shares, debentures and units of mutual funds) during 2000-01 to 2005-06 was lower than that in the 1980s and 1990s (Table 7.4). 7.37 The opening up of the mutual funds sector to the private sector brought about an element of competition. The mutual fund industry recovered from the adverse impact of the UTI imbroglio and has begun to attract substantial funds. The growing popularity of mutual funds is clearly evident from the increase in net funds mobilised (net of redemptions)

by them (Chart VII.8). The buoyancy in stock markets during last two years enabled mutual funds to attract fresh inflow of funds. Although the share of equityoriented schemes increased significantly in recent years, most of the funds mobilised by mutual funds were through liquid/money market schemes, which remain attractive for parking of funds by large investors with a short-term perspective. 7.38 As a result of large mobilisation of funds and robust stock markets, the assets under management of mutual funds increased sharply during last two years (Chart VII.9). 7.39 Despite significant fund mobilisation in the recent years, the penetration of the mutual funds industry in India remains fairly low as compared with

Table 7.4: Share of Various Instruments in Gross Financial Savings of the Household Sector in India
(Per cent) Period Currency Bank and non-bank deposits 48.6 45.0 39.6 43.4 40.9 Insurance, PF, Trade debt 31.3 25.9 25.5 30.5 29.0 Units of UTI 0.5 2.2 6.6 0.9 -0.8 Claims on Government 4.2 11.1 8.1 10.8 18.8 Shares and Debentures@ 1.5 3.9 9.4 4.7 3.2

1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 1995-96 2000-01

to to to to to

1979-80 1989-90 1994-95 1999-00 2005-06

13.9 11.9 10.8 9.7 8.9

@ : Includes investment in shares and debentures of credit/non-credit societies, public sector bonds and investment in mutual funds (other than UTI). Note : Gross financial savings data for the year 2004-05 are on new base, i.e., 1999-2000. Source : Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy, 2005-06, RBI.

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even some of the emerging market economies (Chart VII.10). 7.40 Resource mobilisation from the primary capital market by way of public issues, which touched the peak during 1994-95, declined in subsequent years (Chart VII.11). Although resource mobilisation picked up during the period from 2003-04 to 2005-06, resource mobilisation as per cent of GDP and gross domestic capital formation (GDCF) in 2005-06 was lower than that in 1990-91 (Chart VII.12). This was despite the fact that the industrial sector has remained

buoyant for the last 3 years and has witnessed large capacity additions. 7.41 The size of the primar y market in India remains much smaller than many advanced economies such as Hong Kong, Australia, the UK, the US and Singapore, as also emerging market economies such as Thailand, Malaysia, Brazil and the Philippines (Chart VII.13). 7.42 The relative decline in the public issues segment could be attributed to four main factors:

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drastic fall in the number of companies accessing the primary capital market for funds. The slowdown in activity in the primary market could also be attributed to the subdued conditions in the secondary market. 7.44 During the second half of the 1990s and thereafter, the pattern of financing of investments by the Indian cor porate sector also underwent a significant change. Corporates came to rely heavily on internal sources of funds, constituting 60.7 per cent of total funds during 2000-01 to 2004-05 as against 29.9 per cent during 1990-91 to 1994-95. Among external sources, however, while share of equity capital, borrowings by way of debentures and from FIs declined sharply, that of borrowings from banks increased significantly (Table 7.5). 7.45 Indian corporates were allowed to raise funds from the international capital markets by way of ADRs/ GDRs, FCCBs and external commercial borrowings in the early 1990s. This widened the financing choices available to corporates, enabling them to raise large resources from the international capital markets, especially in the recent period (Chart VII.14). Table 7.5: Pattern of Sources of Funds for Indian Corporates
(Per cent to total) Item 1985-86 to 1989-90 31.9 68.1 7.2 37.9 11.0 13.6 8.7 22.8 100.0 18.2 1990-91 1995-96 2000-01 to to to 1994-95 1999-2000 2004-05 29.9 70.1 18.8 32.7 7.1 8.2 10.3 18.4 100.0 26.0 37.1 62.9 13.0 35.9 5.6 12.3 9.0 13.7 100.0 18.6 60.7 39.3 9.9 11.5 -1.3 18.4 -1.8 17.3 100.0 8.6

(i) tightening of entry and disclosure norms; (ii) increased reliance by corporates on internal generation of funds; (iii) corporates raising resources from the international capital markets; and (iv) emergence of the private placement market. 7.43 In the early 1990s, the liberalisation of the industrial sector and free pricing of capital issues led to an increased number of companies tapping the primary capital market to mobilise resources. Several corporates charged a high premium not justified by their fundamentals. Also, several companies vanished after raising resources from the capital market. SEBI, therefore, strengthened the norms for public issues while retaining the freedom of the issuers to enter the new issues market and to freely price their issues. The disclosure standards were also strengthened for companies coming out with public issues for improving the levels of investor protection. Strict disclosure norms and entry point restrictions prescribed by SEBI made it difficult for most new companies without an established track record to access the public issues market. Whereas this helped to improve the quality of paper coming into the market, it contributed to a decline in the number of issues and the amount mobilised from the market. This period also coincided with slackening of investment activity across various sectors. In particular, the pace of private investment originating from the private corporate sector lost momentum in the second half of the 1990s on account of factors such as reduced savings from this sector and lack of public investment in infrastructure. The dampening of investment climate also resulted in a 268

1. Internal Sources 2. External Sources of which: a) Equity capital b) Borrowings of which: (i) Debentures (ii) From Banks (iii) From FIs c) Trade dues & other current liabilities Total Memo: (i) Share of Capital Market Related Instruments (Debentures and Equity Capital) (ii) Share of Financial Intermediaries (Borrowings from Banks and FIs) (iii) Debt-Equity Ratio Note

22.2

18.3

21.3

16.6

88.4

85.5

65.2

61.6

: Data pertain to a sample of non-government non-financial public limited companies. Source : Article on Finances of Public Limited Companies, RBI Bulletin (various issues).

EQUITY AND CORPORATE DEBT MARKET

been able to float public issues in the absence of a track record of past performance. However, at times, even large-sized companies also prefer to issue securities in the private placement market. A major advantage of private placement is tailor-made deals, which suit the requirements of both the parties. Many companies may also prefer private placements if they wish to raise funds quickly. The resources raised through the private placement market, which amounted to Rs.13,361 crore in 1995-96, increased to Rs.96,369 crore in 2005-06 (as detailed in section III). Currently, the size of the private placement market is estimated to be more than three times of the public issues market (Chart VII.16). Although the private placement market is cost-effective and less time-consuming, it lacks transparency. It also deprives retail investor from participating in the capital market. 7.48 The available data on the shareholding pattern in India between 2001 and 2005 suggest that promoters continue to hold a large portion in the equity of the companies. In fact, the share of promoters increased marginally over the period. The share of equity held by FIIs/NRIs also increased. On the other hand, the share of equity held by mutual funds, banks/FIs and Indian public declined (Chart VII.17). Concentrated ownership prevents the broad distribution of gains from the equity market development. Concentration of ownership among promoters and corporate bodies (through cross-holdings) also has implications for the functioning of the corporate governance framework and protection of rights of minority shareholders.

7.46 International equity issuances by Indian companies increased sharply between 2000 and 2005 and were significantly higher than those by corporates in several other emerging markets (Chart VII.15). 7.47 The private placement market also emerged in the mid-1990s. The convenience and flexibility of issuance made this segment attractive for companies. Mid-sized companies wishing to issue long-term debt securities at fixed rates of interest preferred the private placement market. Some of these companies might be new entrants in the market, which would not have

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more directly to changes in consumption with attendant implications for monetary policy. 7.51 Empirical studies have shown that large price changes may have substantial wealth effects on consumption and savings. Ludwig and Slok (2002) estimated panel data from 16 OECD countries and concluded that there is a significant long run impact of stock market wealth on private consumption. They have singled out five channels of transmission from changes in stock market wealth to changes in consumption. One, if the value of consumers stock holding increases and consumers realise their gains, then consumption will increase. This is known as realised wealth effect. Two, increase in stock prices can also have an expectations effect where the value of stocks in pension accounts and other locked-in accounts increases. The consumers may not realise these gains but they result in higher present consumption on expectation that income and wealth will be higher in future. This is termed as unrealised wealth effect. Three, increase in stock market prices increases the value of investor portfolio. Borrowing against the value of this portfolio, in turn, allows the consumer to increase consumption. This is called liquidity constraints effect. Four, an increase in stock prices may lead to higher consumption for stock option owners as a result of increase in value of stock options. This increase may be independent of whether the gains have been realised or unrealised. This is termed as stock option value effect. Five, consumption of households, who do not participate in the stock market, may be indirectly affected by changes in stock market prices. Asset prices contain information about future movements in real variables (Christoffersen and Slok, 2000). Hence, a decline in stock prices leads to increased uncer tainty about future income, i.e., decrease in consumer confidence and, therefore, decline in durable consumption (Romer, 1990). This is an indirect effect. 7.52 The impact of changes in stock prices on consumption was found to be bigger in economies with market-based financial systems than in economies with bank-based financial systems. Further, this impact from stock markets to consumption has increased over time for both sets of countries. While the effect of housing prices on consumption is ambiguous, the wealth effect has become more important over time. 7.53 Effect of stock prices on consumption appears to be strongest in the US, where most estimates point to an elasticity of consumption spending relative to net stock market wealth in the range of 0.03 to 0.07. In contrast, studies have not found any significant impact of stock prices on private consumption in 270

7.49 To sum up, the Indian capital market has become modern in terms of market infrastructure and trading and settlement practices. The capital market has also become a much safer place than it was before the reform process began. The secondary capital market in India has also become deep and liquid. There has also been a reduction in transaction costs and significant improvement in efficiency and transparency. However, the role of the domestic capital market in capital formation in the country, both directly and indirectly through mutual funds, continues to be less significant. The public issues segment of the capital market, in particular, has remained small. Rather, it has shrunk over the last 15 years. Asset Prices and Wealth Effect 7.50 Apart from playing a vital role in the growth process through mobilisation of resources and improved allocative efficiency, the stock market also promotes economic growth indirectly through its effect on consumption and hence aggregate demand. In recent years, financial balance sheets of economic agents have deepened on account of increase in financial assets and liabilities relative to income and an increase in the holding of assets whose returns are directly linked to the market. Market-linked assets in the form of real estate and equities have become impor tant arguments in the wealth function of households and firms. The tendency of a greater share of wealth to be held in market-linked assets has increased the sensitivity of spending decisions. Price movements in these assets, therefore, may lead

EQUITY AND CORPORATE DEBT MARKET

France and Italy. In Canada, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, the effects are significant but smaller than in the United States. This is reflective of the smaller share of stock ownership relative to other financial assets in these countries, as well as more concentrated distribution of stock ownership across households in continental Europe as compared with the US. The effect of changes in real property prices on consumption was found to be much stronger in European Union countries. Rising real property prices can affect consumption not only through higher realised home values but also by the households ability to refinance a mortgage or go for reverse mortgages (IMF, 2000). However, in the Indian context, the wealth effect is limited as the household sector holds a very small share of its savings in stocks, i.e., about 5 per cent in 2005-06. As households diversify their portfolios in equities, the asset price channel of monetary transmission could strengthen as wealth effect becomes more important. II. PRIVATE CORPORATE DEBT MARKET 7.54 The private corporate debt market provides an alternative means of long-term resources (alternative to financing by banks and financial institutions) to corporates. The size and growth of private corporate debt market depends upon several factors, including financing patterns of companies. Among market-based sources of financing, while the equity markets have been largely developed, the corporate bond markets in most emerging market economies (EMEs) have remained relatively underdeveloped. This has been the result of dominance of the banking system combined with the weaknesses in market infrastructure and inherent complexities. However, credit squeeze following the Asian financial crisis in the mid-1990s drew attention of policy makers to the importance of multiple financing channels in an economy. Alternative sources of finance, apart from banks, need to be actively developed to suppor t higher levels of investment and economic growth. The development of corporate debt market has, therefore, become the prime concern of regulators in developing countries. 7.55 As in several other EMEs, corporates in India have traditionally relied heavily on borrowings from banks and financial institutions (FIs) to finance their investments. Equity financing was also used, but largely during periods of surging equity prices. However, bond issuances by companies have remained limited in size and scope. Given the huge funding requirements, especially for long-term infrastructure projects, the private corporate debt market has a crucial role to play and needs to be nurtured. 271

Significance of the Corporate Debt Market 7.56 In any country, companies face different types of financing choices at different stages of development. Reflecting the varied supplies of different types of capital and their costs, regulatory policies and financial innovations, the financing patterns of firms vary geographically and temporally. Some studies have observed that while developed countries rely more on market-based sources of finance, the developing countries rely more on bankbased sources. The development of a corporate bond market, for direct financing of the capital requirements of corporates by investors assumes paramount importance, particularly in a liberalised financial system (Sakakibara, 2001). From the perspective of developing countries, a liquid corporate bond market can play a critical role in suppor ting economic development as it supplements the banking system to meet the requirements of the corporate sector for long-term capital investment and asset creation. It provides a stable source of finance when the equity market is volatile. Further, with the decline in the role of specialised financial institutions, there is an increasing realisation of the need for a well-developed corporate debt market as an alternative source of finance. Corporate bond markets can also help firms reduce their overall cost of capital by allowing them to tailor their asset and liability profiles to reduce the risk of maturity and currency mismatches. A private corporate bond market is important for nurturing a credit culture and market discipline. The existence of a well-functioning bond market can lead to the efficient pricing of credit risk as expectations of all bond market participants are incorporated into bond prices. 7.57 In many Asian economies, banks have traditionally been performing the role of financial inter mediation. The East Asian crisis of 1997 underscored the limitations of weak banking systems. The primary role of a banking system is to create and maintain liquidity that is needed to finance production within a short-term horizon. The crisis showed that over-reliance on bank lending for debt financing exposes an economy to the risk of a failure of the banking system. Banking systems, therefore, cannot be the sole source of long-term investment capital without making an economy vulnerable to external shocks. In times of financial distress, when banking sector becomes vulnerable, the corporate bond markets act as a buffer and reduce macroeconomic vulnerability to shocks and systemic risk through diversification of credit and investment risks. By contributing to a more diverse financial system, a bond market can promote financial stability. A bond market

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

may also help the banking system in difficult conditions by allowing banks to recapitalise their balance sheets through securitisation (IOSCO, 2002). 7.58 The available economic literature suggests that meeting the demand for long-term funds by corporates, especially in developing economies requires multiple financing channels such as the equity market, the debt market, banks and other financial institutions. Indirect financing by banks and direct financing by bonds also improve firms capital structures. From a broader sense of macroeconomic stability and growth, the complementary nature of bank financing and direct financing by the market in financing cor porates is desirable. It has been established that they indeed play a complementary role in the emerging market economies (Takagi, 2001). 7.59 Apart from providing a channel for financing investments, the cor porate bond markets also contribute towards portfolio diversification for holders of long-term funds. Effective asset management requires a balance of asset alternatives. In view of the underdeveloped state of the corporate bond markets, there would be an overweight position in gover nment securities and even equities. The existence of a well-functioning corporate bond market widens the array of asset choices for long-term investors such as pension funds and insurance companies and allows them to better manage the maturity structure of their balance sheets. 7.60 The financial structure of corporates has implications for monetary policy. Bond markets give an assessment of expected interest rates through the term structure of interest rates. The shape of the yield curve provides useful information about market expectations of future interest rates and inflation rates. Bond der ivatives can also provide impor tant information about the prevailing uncertainty about future interest rates. Such information gives important clues on whether market expectations deviate too far from central banks own evaluation of the current circumstances. In other words, bond markets can provide relevant information about risks to price stability. In situations when banks may adopt an oligopolistic pricing behaviour, the dynamic response of monetary policy changes works mainly through the bond market. Further, when the banking sector is impaired, as in Thailand in 1997, a change in policy interest rate can still have some effect through the change in behaviour and issuing costs for corporate bonds. State of the Corporate Debt Market in India 7.61 In India, banks and FIs have traditionally been the most important external sources of finance for the 272

corporate sector. India has traditionally been a predominantly bank-based system. This picture is generally characteristic of most Asian economies. The second half of the 1980s saw some activity in primary bond issuances, but these were largely by the PSUs. The period of debenture boom in the late 1980s, however, proved to be short-lived. The corporates relied more on banks for meeting short-term working capital requirements and DFIs for financing long-term investment. However, with the conversion of two large DFIs into banks, a gap has appeared for long-term finance. Commercial banks have managed to fill this gap, but only to an extent as there are asset-liability mismatch issues for banks in providing longermaturity credit. The problems associated with the diminishing role of DFIs appeared less severe as this period coincided with a decline in the reliance of the corporates on external financing. However, this situation may change in future. 7.62 In the 1990s, the equity market in India witnessed a series of reforms, which helped in bringing it on par with international standards. However, the corporate debt market has not been able to develop due to lack of market infrastructure and a comprehensive regulatory framework. For a variety of reasons, the issuers resorted to private placement of bonds as opposed to public issues of bonds. The issuances of bonds to the public have declined sharply since the early 1990s. From an annual average of Rs.7,513 crore raised by way of public debt issues during 1990-95, the mobilisation fell to Rs.5,526 crore during 19952000 and further to Rs.4,433 crore during 2000-05 (Chart VII.18). The decline is expected to be much

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sharper in real terms, i.e., adjusted for rise in inflation. In contrast, the mobilisation of funds by private placement of debt increased sharply from an average of Rs.33,638 crore during 1995-2000 to Rs.69,928 crore during 2000-05. In 2005-06, the mobilisation of funds by public issue of debt shrank to a measly sum of Rs.245 crore, while the resources raised by way of private placement of debt swelled to Rs.96,369 crore. The share of resources raised by private placements in total debt issues correspondingly increased from 69.1 per cent in 1995-96 to 99.8 per cent in 2005-06. This trend continued in 2006-07. 7.63 The emergence of private placement market has provided an easier alternative to the corporates

to raise funds (Box VII.2). Although the private placement market provides a cost effective and time saving mechanism for raising resources, the unbridled growth of this market has raised some concerns. The quality of issues and extent of transparency in the private placement deals remain areas of concern even though privately placed issues by listed companies are now required to be listed and also subject to necessary disclosures. In the case of public issues, all the issues coming to the market are screened for their quality and the investors rely on ratings and other public information for evaluation of risk. Such a screening mechanism is missing in the case of private placements. This increases the risk associated with

Box VII.2 Private Placement Market in India

In private placement, resources are raised privately through arrangers (merchant banking intermediaries) who place securities with a limited number of investors such as financial institutions, corporates and high net worth individuals. Under Section 81 of the Companies Act, 1956, a private placement is defined as an issue of shares or of convertible securities by a company to a select group of persons. An offer of securities to more than 50 persons is deemed to be a public issue under the Act. Corporates access the private placement market because of its certain inherent advantages. First, it is a cost and time-effective method of raising funds. Second, it can be structured to meet the needs of the entrepreneurs. Third, private placement does not require detailed compliance of formalities as required in public or rights issues. The private placement market was not regulated until May 2004. In view of the mushrooming growth of the market and the risk posed by it, SEBI prescribed that the listing of all debt securities, irrespective of the mode of issuance, i.e., whether issued on a private placement basis or through public/rights issue, shall be done through a separate listing agreement. The Reserve Bank also issued guidelines to the financial intermediaries under its purview on investments in non-SLR securities including, private placement. In June 2001, boards of banks were advised to lay down policy and prudential limits on investments in bonds and debentures, including cap on unrated issues and on a private placement basis. The policy laid down by banks should prescribe stringent appraisal of issues, especially by non-borrower customers, provide for an internal system of rating, stipulate entry-level minimum ratings/quality standards and put in place proper risk management systems. The private placement market in India, which shot into prominence in the early 1990s, has grown sharply in recent years. The resource mobilisation by way of private placements increased from Rs.13,361 crore in 1995-96 to Rs.96,369 crore in 2005-06, recording an average annual growth of over 25 per cent during the decade (Chart A). The private placement market remained largely confined to financial companies and central PSUs and state-level undertakings. These institutions together accounted for over 75 per cent share in resource mobilisation by private placements. The resources raised by non-government non-financial companies remained comparatively insignificant (Char t B). Most of the resources from the market are raised by way of debt, with a majority of issues carrying AAA or AA rating.

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privately placed securities. Fur ther, the private placement market appears to be growing at the expense of the public issues market, which has some distinct advantages in the form of wider participation by the investors and, thus, diversification of the risk. 7.64 The size of the Indian corporate debt market is very small in comparison with not only developed markets, but also some of the emerging market economies in Asia such as Malaysia, Thailand and China (Table 7.6). 7.65 In view of the dominance of the private placement segment, most of the corporate debt issues in India do not find a way into the secondary market due to limited transparency in both primary and secondary markets. Liquidity is also constrained on account of small size of issues. For instance, the average size of issue of privately placed bonds in 2005-06 worked out to around Rs.90 crore, less than half of an average size of an equity issue. Out of nearly 1,000 bond issues in the private placement market, only around 3 per cent of the issues were of the size of more than Rs.500 crore. Some companies entered the market more than 100 times in a single year to raise funds through small tranches. As a result, the secondary market for corporate debt is characterised by poor liquidity and trading is confined largely to the top 5 or 10 bond papers (Bose and Coondoo, 2003). The government bond market has become reasonably liquid, while the trading in private corporate debt Table 7.6: Size of Domestic Corporate Debt Market and other Sources of Local Currency Funding (As at end-2004)
(As per cent of GDP)

securities has remained insignificant (Table 7.7). Typically, the tur nover ratios differ widely for government and corporate debt securities across the world. The turnover ratios for Asian corporate bond markets are a small fraction of those for government bond markets reflecting low levels of liquidity. Liquidity differences for government and corporate bond markets are expected because corporate debt issues are more heterogeneous and smaller in size than government bond issues. Even in the US, the turnover ratio for corporate bonds was less than 2 per cent in 2004 as compared with turnover ratio of more than 30 per cent for government bonds (BIS, 2006). 7.66 Development of the domestic corporate debt market in India is constrained by a number of factors - low issuance leading to illiquidity in the secondary market, narrow investor base, inadequate credit assessment skills, high costs of issuance, lack of transparency in trades, non-standardised instruments, comprehensive regulator y framewor k and underdevelopment of securitisation products. The mar ket suffers from deficiencies in products, participants and institutional framework. This is despite the fact that India is fairly well placed insofar as pre-requisites for the development of the corporate bond market are concerned (Mohan, 2004b). There is a reasonably well-developed government securities market, which generally precedes the development of the market for corporate debt securities. The major stock exchanges have trading platforms for the transactions in debt securities. The infrastructure also exists for clearing and settlement. The Clearing Cor poration of India Limited (CCIL) has been successfully settling trades in government bonds, foreign exchange and other money mar ket instruments. The experience with the depository system has been satisfactory. The presence of multiple rating agencies meets the requirement of an assessment framework for bond quality. Table 7.7: Turnover of Debt Securities
(Rs. crore) Year 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 (April-Feb.) Government Bonds* 5,72,145 12,11,945 13,78,158 16,83,711 11,60,632 8,81,652 9,71,414 Corporate Bonds 14,486 19,586 35,876 41,760 37,312 24,602 12,099

Country

Corporate bonds outstanding 2 128.8 49.3 41.7 38.8 35.8 27.8 27.1 18.6 18.3 10.6 3.3 2.4 0.2

Government bonds outstanding 3 42.5 23.7 117.2 36.1 5.0 19.9 13.8 27.6 18.5 18.0 29.9 15.2 21.8

Domestic credit 4 89.0 104.2 146.9 113.9 148.9 245.5 185.4 70.1 84.9 154.4 60.2 42.6 49.8

1 US Korea Japan Malaysia Hong Kong New Zealand Australia Singapore Thailand China India Indonesia Philippines

Source : Bank for International Settlements, 2006.

*: Outright transactions in government securities. Source : RBI; National Stock Exchange of India Limited.

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7.67 With the intent of the development of the corporate bond market along sound lines, some initiatives were taken by the SEBI in the past few years. These measures largely aimed at improving disclosures in respect of privately placed debt issues. In view of the immediate need to design a suitable framework for the corporate debt market, it was announced in the Union Budget 2005-06 that a High Level Expert Committee on Corporate Bonds and Securitisation would be set up to look into the legal, regulatory, tax and mortgage design issues for the development of the corporate bond market. The High Level Committee (Chairman: Dr. R. H. Patil), which submitted its report in December 2005, looked into the factors inhibiting the development of an active corporate debt market in India and made several suggestions for developing the market infrastructure for development of primary as well as secondary corporate bond market (Box VII.3). 7.68 At the current time, when India is endeavoring to sustain its high growth rate, it is necessary that financing constraints in any form are removed and alternative financing channels are developed in a systematic manner for supplementing traditional bank credit. The problem of missing corporate bond market, however, is not unique to India alone. Predominantly bank-dominated financial systems in most Asian economies faced this situation. Many Asian economies woke up to meet this challenge in the wake of the Asian financial crisis. During less than a decade, the domestic bond markets of many Asian economies have undergone significant transformation. In the case of India, however, the small size of the private corporate debt market has shrunk further. This trend needs to be reversed soon. India could learn from the experiences of countries that have undertaken the process of reforming their domestic corporate bond markets. Lessons from Experiences of other Countries 7.69 The corporate bond markets have developed at a different pace in different countries across the globe. While the local environment shaped the developments in a major way in most economies, there were certain common elements of reform that aimed at removing various bottlenecks impeding the growth of this segment. It is difficult to find much uniformity in the various features of the corporate bond market across the countries. This is partly because of the complex nature of bond contracts and variations in market practices across countries. The size of the corporate bond market also differs widely 275

across the countries, with the US and Japan having large markets, followed by Korea, China and Australia (refer to Table 7.6). Corporates would have limited incentive to tap bond markets when banks are willing to lend at low spreads. Even among developed economies, the dominance of the banking sector in Europe and correspondingly small size of the corporate bond market is in sharp contrast to the US where corporate debt market plays a bigger role in corporate financing than banks. The European bond markets have, however, grown in size after the introduction of euro in 1999. The US is perhaps the only country with a bigger market for corporate bonds as compared with domestic credit market. The size of the US corporate bond market is almost as big as its equity market. While the corporate bond market in the US has existed for a long time, Canada, Japan and most European countries have seen their corporate bond markets developing in more recent decades (IMF, 2005). The size of an economy, the level of its development and state of financial architecture are some of the key determinants of the size of the corporate bond market. Although the US experience with corporate bond markets could serve as a useful model for Asian economies striving to develop domestic bond markets, they may find it difficult to emulate the US experience on account of differences in the level of financial development and experience. Even in the US, the corporate bond markets evolved over a long period of time due to a combination of regulatory intervention and market forces. 7.70 The growth of the corporate bond market in several countries, including the US and Korea, was spurred by increased availability of structured financial products such as mortgage and assetbacked securities. In the US, mor tgage backed securities accounted for 26 per cent of the total outstanding debt in 2004, while the corporate debt secur ities accounted for 23 per cent of the outstanding debt (Chart VII.19). In a pure corporate debt market, only large companies can access the market. The availability of structured products provides an alter native way of addressing a fundamental limitation of the corporate bond market, namely the gap between the credit quality of bonds that investors would like to hold and the actual credit quality of potential borrowers (Gyntelberg and Remolana, 2006). 7.71 After the 1997 Asian crisis, several Asian economies have implemented measures to develop their local corporate bond markets to create multiple

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Box VII.3 Recommendations of the High Level Expert Committee on Corporate Debt and Securitisation
The key recommendations of the High Level Exper t Committee on Corporate Debt and Securitisation, which submitted its report in December 2005, are summed up below: Corporate Debt Market Primary Market 1. 2. The stamp duty on debt instruments be made uniform across all the States and linked to the tenor of securities. To increase the issuer base, the time and cost for public issuance and the disclosure and listing requirements for private placements be reduced and made simpler. Banks be allowed to issue bonds of maturities of 5 year and above for ALM purpose, in addition to infrastructure sector bonds. A suitable framework for market making be put in place. The disclosure requirements be substantially abridged for listed companies. For unlisted companies, rating rationale should form the basis of listing. Companies that wish to make a public issue should be subjected to stringent disclosure requirements. The privately placed bonds should be listed within 7 days from the date of allotment, as in the case of public issues. The role of debenture tr ustees should be strengthened. SEBI should encourage development of professional debenture trustee companies. To reduce the relative cost of participation in the corporate bond market, the tax deduction at source (TDS) rule for corporate bonds should be brought at par with the government securities. Companies should pay interest and redemption amounts to the depository, which would then pass them on to the investors through ECS/warrants. For widening investor base, the scope of investment by provident/pension/gratuity funds and insurance companies in corporate bonds should be enhanced. Retail investors should be encouraged to participate in the market through stock exchanges and mutual funds. To create large floating stocks, the number of fresh issuances by a given corporate in a given time period should be limited. Any new issue should preferably be a reissue so that there are large stocks in any given issue and issuers should be encouraged to consolidate various existing issues into a few large issues, which can then serve as benchmarks. A centralised database of all bonds issued by corporates be created. Enabling regulations for setting up platfor ms for non-competitive bidding and electronic bidding process for primary issuance of bonds should be created. 2. trading in corporate bonds and disseminating on a real time basis should be created. The market participants should report details of each transaction within a specified time period to the trade reporting system. The clearing and settlement of trades should meet the standards set by IOSCO and global best practices. The clearing and settlement system should migrate within a reasonable timeframe from gross settlement to net settlement. The clearing and settlement agencies should be given access to the RTGS system. For improving secondary market trading, repos in corporate bonds be allowed. An online order matching platform for corporate bonds should be set up by the stock exchanges or jointly by regulated institutions such as banks, financial institutions, mutual funds, insurance companies, etc. In the final stage of development, the trade reporting system could migrate to STP-enabled order matching system and net settlement. The Committee also recommended: (i) reduction in shut period for corporate bonds; (ii) application of uniform coupon conventions such as, 30/360 day count convention as followed for gover nment securities; (iii) reduction in minimum market lot from Rs.10 lakh to Rs.1 lakh, and (iv) introduction of exchange traded interest rate derivative products.

3.

3. 4.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

Secondary Market 1. The regulatory framework for a transparent and efficient secondary market for corporate bonds should be put in place by SEBI in a phased manner. To begin with, a trade reporting system for capturing information related to

Securitised Debt Market 1. A consensus should evolve on the affordable rates and levels of stamp duty on debt assignment, passthrough certificates (PTCs) and security receipts (SRs) across States. 2. An explicit tax pass-through treatment to securitisation SPVs / Trust SPVs should be provided. Wholesale investors should be permitted to invest in and hold units of a close-ended passively managed mutual fund whose sole objective is to invest its funds in securitised paper. There should be no withholding tax on interest paid by the borrowers to the securitisation trust and on distributions made by the securitisation trust to its PTCs and/or SR holders. 3. PTCs and other securities issued by securitisation SPVs / Trust SPVs should be notified as securities under SCRA. 4. Large-sized NBFCs and non-NBFCs corporate bodies established in India may be permitted to invest in SRs as QIBs. Private equity funds registered with SEBI as venture capital funds (VCFs) may also be permitted to invest in SRs within the limits that are applied for investment by VCFs into corporate bonds. 5. The Committee also recommended: (i) introduction of credit enhancement mechanism for corporate bonds; (ii) creation of specialised debt funds to cater to the needs of the infrastructure sector; and (iii) fiscal support, like tax benefits, bond insurance and credit enhancement, for municipal bonds and infrastructure SPVs.

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telephone to screen-based electronic trading platform. Trading frameworks in several countries have different features (Annex I). Most countries are experimenting with both OTC and exchangebased framework utilising the virtues of both types of systems to achieve optimal results. ii. The reforms for fostering the growth of an active secondary market also included creation of market-making obligations and introduction of a repo facility so that dealers can borrow securities to cover their short positions.

iii. An important element of reform in most countries has been the building of a liquid government benchmark yield curve, which required increasing the size of the government bond market and extension of yield curve for longer term securities depending upon the market demand. Issuance of calendar for auctions in advance also formed part of the reforms. iv. financing channels. The primary markets for corporate bonds in Asia have grown significantly in size. However, this growth in some cases has been driven mainly by quasi-Government issuers or issues with some kind of credit guarantee (BIS, 2006). The corporate debt markets are being accessed primarily by large firms as investors can easily assess their credit quality based on publicly available information. In Asian countries such as Malaysia and Korea, the primary corporate bond market is dominated by issues carrying ratings of single-A or above, with a large proportion of debt papers having triple-A ratings. 7.72 In some countries, the pick-up in corporate bond issuances was a direct fallout of credit squeeze following the Asian crisis. In these bank-dominated financial systems, there were several inherent constraints on the development of bond markets, requiring efforts by the regulatory authorities. Most Asian economies are still grappling with the development of local cor porate bond markets. Nonetheless, a number of critical issues have emerged from the experiences with developing bond markets in some countries (Box VII.4). These are set out below: i. The issue of appropriate trading systems for corporate bond markets has been a subject of debate among securities market regulators. Across the world, the trading systems for bond markets are primarily OTC-type. There have, however, been some effor ts by several economies to move beyond traditional trading via 277 Most countries took steps for expanding the issuer and investor base. The growing presence of institutional investors played a big role in the growth of local bond markets such as Chile and Malaysia. Some countries such as Singapore and Australia actively encouraged foreign investors and issuers. A number of East Asian markets have introduced tax incentives to encourage greater investor participation. This is based on the realisation that excessive taxes discourage local and foreign participation in local debt markets and impede a countrys investment growth and, thus, can restrain bond market development. Incentives were applied in a variety of ways such as tax exemptions on interest income ear ned on infrastructure bonds and removal of withholding tax. There is, however, divergence of opinion on the use of tax incentives for promoting a market segment. While most Asian governments want to speed up development of their debt markets, studies show that they need to balance development plans with existing market maturity, fiscal priorities, and the possible trade-related distortions tax incentives can cause.

v.

vi. Lack of appropriate hedging instruments has constrained the development of secondar y market in several economies. The experience of relatively developed markets shows that a vibrant hedging mar ket and adequate liquidity enhancement facilities helped in improving the liquidity of the secondary market.

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Box VII.4 Development of Corporate Bond Market Experiences of Select Economies

Korea Korea had an underdeveloped local government bond market till 1997 as the Government was running a surplus, but a developed market for corporate bonds, which had come up in the early 1970s. However, a majority of Korean corporate bond issues had guarantees from commercial banks. The experience of Korea shows that too much Government intervention (either in exchange rate or implicit or explicit guarantees) results in serious distortion of markets. Since the currency crisis, the corporate bond market in Korea grew remarkably fast as the companies had to substitute bank lending by bond issues and large quantities of asset-backed securities (ABSs) had to be issued in the process of financial restructuring. Reflecting this, the total outstanding volume of bonds doubled to 93.1 per cent of GDP at end-2004 from 46.1 per cent of GDP at end-1997 (BIS, 2006). Although the bond market in Korea grew fast, it followed boom-bust cycle due to collapse of one of its leading corporate houses. The authorities, therefore, had to intervene from time to time to stabilise the market. The Korean experience is important in that corporates were able to replace bonds guaranteed by banks with bonds without bank guarantees. As a result, corporate bonds in Korea increasingly reflected corporate credit risk rather than credit risk of banks. Korea introduced mark-to-market accounting on bond funds as it promotes transparency and enhances market liquidity. Two private pricing agencies provide bond valuations in Korea. Malaysia Malaysia succeeded in giving a boost to its corporate bond market by reducing impediments and enhancing coordination. The National Bond Market Committee, which consolidated regulatory responsibility under one umbrella, brought about a reduction in approval process for corporate issuance from 9-12 months to 14 days. In order to enhance cost-effectiveness and efficiency, the Malaysian authorities also computerised several processes and made some others online, to speed up securities tendering, reduce settlement risk, promote transparency of information and more efficient trading. Securities lending and borrowing programme was introduced via real-time gross settlement system. The Malaysian bond market also benefited from regional cooperation in East Asia. The growth of Malaysias corporate bond market was spurred by the increasing presence of institutional investors, such as pension funds, unit trust funds and insurance companies on the one hand and increasing demand from the private sector for innovative forms of finance, on the other. Malaysia promoted its indigenous Islamic bond market through the Malaysia International Islamic Financial Centre initiative, which abolished withholding taxes on interest income earned on multilateral-issued bonds. The Islamic bond market now accounts for almost one-third of the private debt securities market (BIS, 2006). It is significant to note that the corporate and government bond markets in Malaysia share the same infrastructure, dealers, reporting system and RTGS system, thus, taking advantage of the economies of scale in infrastructure like dealer networks, reporting and settlement. Singapore Singapore has one of the more developed debt markets in Asia. Despite the small size of economy, the authorities made attempts to attract non-resident issuers in both local and foreign currencies to enhance the size and depth of the corporate bond market. Singapore took various steps to encourage foreign investors and issuers, which included removal of restrictions on Singapore-based financial institutions trading with non-financial institutions, and on trading of interest rate swaps (IRS), asset swaps, cross-currency swaps and options. Issue of bonds was also encouraged by streamlining of prospectus requirements. Under a debenture issuance programme, an issuer in Singapore can make multiple offers of separate tranches of debentures, by issuing a base prospectus that is applicable for the entire programme and by lodging a brief pricing statement for subsequent offers under the programme. The validity of the base prospectus has been extended from six months from the date of initial registration to 24 months. Financial institutions offering continuously issued structured notes have been exempted from the requirement to lodge and register a pricing statement as there were practical difficulties for the issuer of these notes in lodging a pricing statement before such an offer. These streamlined disclosure requirements have ensured that proper risk and product disclosures are made available to investors. There has been a sharp surge in foreign entities issuing Singapore dollar-denominated bonds. Local institutions, particularly quasi-government entities, were also encouraged to issue bonds. In Singapore, key issues that were designated as benchmarks were augmented by re-opening these issues and buying back others. This was done based on market feedback about minimum issue size that is needed for active trading. Therefore, issues that were smaller in size were bought back to concentrate liquidity in the larger issues. For faster processing of applications, an internet based facility was created for primary dealers to submit bids. An electronic trading platform, which publishes details of transactions on a real time basis, also helped in improving the transparency of the yield curve. Singapore introduced investor tax exemptions on interest income derived from infrastructure bonds to diversify the range of attractive debt products. Singapore experimented with a short-term interest rate futures contract and a five-year futures contract in government securities in 2001, but the response was poor. Market participants in Singapore exhibited a preference for the IRS market. Australia A well-functioning corporate bond market has emerged in Australia over last one decade due to a combination of factors such as strong economic growth leading to demand for funds, reduction in governments borrowing requirements, thereby easing competition for investible funds and introduction of a compulsory retirement savings system in the early 1990s that expanded the pool of funds. The growth of corporate bond market in Australia is also attributable to its openness to foreign issuers and investors. To enable these investors and issuers to hedge against currency risk, Australia developed liquid markets in currency swaps. Australia also removed interest withholding tax on foreign investment. Thailand The regulatory authorities in Thailand have been actively promoting their local bond market. Thailand implemented a no tax policy on special purpose vehicle (SPV) transfers for marketable securities to promote investor liquidity and lower financing costs. The Bond Electronic Exchange of Thailand recently set up an electronic trading platform to facilitate trade and reduce transaction costs. Reference: Bank for International Settlements. 2006. Developing Corporate Bond Markets in Asia. BIS Papers No.26, February.

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vii. The growth of the corporate bond markets across the world has been propelled by the emergence of structured debt products like asset-securitised debt, credit-linked debt, equity-linked debt, conver tible debt, etc. due to increased sophistication and risk appetite on the part of the investors. Securitisation acts as a risk transfer mechanism that could work to the advantage of both banks and investors. In Singapore, structured debt made up almost 60 per cent of total Singapore-dollar debt issuances in 2004 (BIS, 2006). Access for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) has been created through asset-backed securities, which has been successful in Japan and Korea. In many countries, however, this market is not fully developed, either because it needs complicated legal infrastructure or the credit environment does not enable securitisation. 7.73 There have also been initiatives at the crosscountry level. In the Asian region, the Asian Bond Fund (ABF) is an important initiative developed by the EMEAP 1 group that aims at broadening and deepening the domestic bond markets in Asia. ABF1, which was launched in June 2003, pooled US$ 1 billion in reserves from 11 central banks and invested in a basket of US dollar denominated bonds issued by Asian sovereign and quasi-sovereign issuers in EMEAP economies. ABF2, launched in July 2005, extends the ABF concept to bonds denominated in local currencies and comprises nine component funds - a Pan-Asian Bond Index Fund and eight single market funds. The EMEAP group has pooled a total of US$ 2 billion. The setting up of ABF enables bringing together Asian economies, which will enable intra-regional debt flows that can then be usefully absorbed in the region (Mohan, 2006a). III. THE WAY FORWARD 7.74 The stock markets in India have become modern and are comparable to the best in the world in ter ms of mar ket infrastr ucture, trading and settlement practices and risk management systems. However, given the size of the Indian economy, the capital raised from the securities market has remained quite small, notwithstanding some spurt in issues in recent years. In fact, in relation to GDP and GDCF, the size of the public issue segment has shrunk somewhat in comparison with the position in 1991.
1

Stock markets in several EMEs are growing fast. A continuing increase in the savings rate of households suggests that there is no supply constraint in terms of financial resources that could be channeled into the equity market. After the exuberance of the stock market in the mid-1990s and its decline thereafter, a large number of individual investors took flight to safety in bank deposits, safe retirement instruments and insurance (Mohan, 2004a). Households in India have increasingly tended to prefer savings in the form of safe and contractual instruments as opposed to capital market based instruments. Although retail investors have started showing some increased interest in the equity market in recent years, there is a need to increase their participation further. The success of all the recent public issues also suggests that investors are willing to invest in the equity market. However, corporates, by and large, tend to finance their investment activities through alternative sources, which have inhibited the growth of the market. Large and well-known corporates in India have tended to prefer international capital markets. Huge resources have also been raised by way of debt issues from the private placement market, which is less cumbersome, fast and economical. However, this segment lacks transparency and appears to be growing at the expense of the public issues segment. Lack of sufficient capital market activity has hindered the process of diversification of investment from fixed income instruments to equity-based instruments by the households. 7.75 India is now one of the fastest growing economies in the world and is endeavoring to step up the growth rate. Limited availability of adequate long-term resources could adversely affect Indias infrastructure development. Banks have been able to fill the void created by the conversion of two major DFIs into banks, but only to some extent. Infrastructure financing requirements are large and could not be expected to be met by the banking sector alone. Banks already appear to have significant exposure to long-term funds. They may, therefore, not be in a position to fund long-term projects in future to the extent they have been able to do in recent years. Inadequate long-term resources could, therefore, act as a constraint on Indias future growth prospects. In the absence of a well-functioning debt market, even large corporates fund their requirements from the banking system, limiting the availability of bank funds

Executives' Meeting of East Asia and Pacific Central Banks (EMEAP) group comprises 11 central banks and monetary authorities from Australia, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand.

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for small and medium enterprises and other sectors. This also raises the cost of borrowings for them. Thus, development of the capital market, in general, and the debt market, in particular, is crucial from the point of view of reducing corporate sectors reliance on the banking system so as to enable it to focus more on lending to small and medium enter prises, and agriculture and allied activities. 7.76 Given the importance of the capital market for sustaining the growth and enhancing the financial stability, it may be necessary to identify the factors that inhibit its growth and introduce reforms that are needed for strengthening the role of the capital market. Time and Cost of Issuance 7.77 The time and cost of raising funds from the domestic capital market are key considerations for floating public issues. The time taken for approval of public issues should be reasonably short. If the time period for raising resources is long, it can hamper the financing opportunities and raise the financing cost for issuers. In some countries, a ceiling is imposed on the maximum number of days for granting approvals. Generally, the upper ceiling is 30 days. For instance, it is 14 days in the case of corporate bond issues in Malaysia (BIS, 2006). It takes less than a month for floating a GDR/ADR issue. In India, the time limit for granting approval for a public issue is 21 days after filing the completed document. However, it may take a company around 6 months to float a public issue. The cost of a public issue in India is also estimated to be higher than other countries. As recommended by the High Level Expert Committee on Corporate Bonds and Securitisation, the time and cost of public issuances need to be reduced. Institutional Investors 7.78 Institutional investors play an important role in the development of the market by providing depth and liquidity. As informed traders, they also help in improving the corporate governance practices of companies. In Chile, for example, institutional investors played a key role in the development of the private pension industry, which, in tur n, had a favourable impact on the development of the domestic capital markets. In India, even though the contractual saving institutions such as pension/provident funds and insurance companies are the natural holders of long-term sources of funds, their funds are mostly deployed in government securities partly because of its risk free feature and partly because the corporate 280

debt market is not yet developed. For the same reasons, banks too find gilts more attractive than illiquid corporate debt paper. As a result, they are also not able to generate sufficiently high returns on their investments. Mutual funds, on the other hand, are heavily oriented towards liquid and money market schemes. For generating adequate supply of funds to meet the financing needs of corporates, it is necessary to relax the investment limits for pension funds investments in corporate securities. The growth of pension funds is likely to continue, leading to increased demand for high-quality fixed-income assets. It is, therefore, important that the demand for funds exists to absorb increased supply of funds. The two forces, to some extent, would reinforce each other with supply creating its own demand. 7.79 The change over from defined benefit to defined contribution architecture for pension funds, resulting in, among other things, the risk of investment being borne by the beneficiaries and not by their employers makes it desirable that the pool of investments is invested and managed on professional lines against proper long-ter m investment and performance benchmarks. As has been the case globally, such funds need to be allowed to invest a part of their assets in equities within, of course, cer tain pr udent limits. Par ticipation of funds representing long-term savings in the economy such as superannuation funds in equity and long-term corporate debt would be desirable for several reasons, including: (a) to withstand short-term volatility due to longer time horizon; (b) opportunity to benefit from longterm outlook and performance of the Indian economy; and (c) facilitating better price discovery as well as the overall development of the capital market in India. 7.80 Greater participation of domestic institutional investors could also act as a counterweight to foreign institutional investors and thereby enhance stability of the market, especially during periods of volatility. As long-term holders of funds, these institutional investors can provide a long-term view as opposed to foreign institutional investors who normally take a shortterm view on the market. The challenge in this regard is to set up appropriate regulatory framework that would enhance governance, including accountability, mandate appropriate disclosure and ensure separation of administration from asset management. Transparency and Corporate Governance 7.81 The enabling environment must also provide reasonably high standards of corporate governance, accounting and auditing and financial disclosures at

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regular intervals. As part of the broader set of reforms aimed at improving the functioning of the securities market, the SEBI has taken several measures to improve information flows from the listed companies with a view to enhancing the efficiency of the market. It has also been the endeavour of the SEBI to improve cor porate gover nance practices for the listed companies to infuse a sense of discipline and accountability in the Indian corporate sector by strengthening standards of disclosure and transparency. However, corporate governance is an evolving process and the standards need to be revised from time to time in keeping with international developments in this regard. According to the corporate governance assessment for India done jointly by IMF and the World Bank as part of the Report on Observance of Standards and Codes, there are several OECD corporate governance principles that are not fully observed in India. The Report noted that enforcement and implementation of laws and regulations continue to remain important challenges (World Bank, 2004). For developing the debt market, many emerging markets in Asia have also improved their bankruptcy procedures to strengthen the creditors right to protection and facilitate the process of corporate debt restructuring (Luengnaruemitchai and Ong, 2005). For example, revised bankruptcy procedures have been introduced in Thailand, Korea and Malaysia. Penetration of Mutual Funds 7.82 Mutual funds are an important vehicle for retail investors in several countries. Despite a significant growth in the number of schemes and assets under management of mutual funds in India in recent years, their level of penetration remains limited in comparison with other countries. This is reflected in the small size of assets managed by them (amounting to less than 5 per cent of GDP as against 70 per cent in the US, 61 per cent in France and 37 per cent in Brazil) and small share of household savings in units of mutual funds. Resource mobilisation by mutual funds through equity-oriented schemes, in particular, has remained small, notwithstanding some increase during past two years (Chart VII.8). There is, therefore, need to enhance mutual fund penetration in the country to attract a larger share of household savings in financial assets. Reliable and Liquid Yield Curve 7.83 Among various reforms needed for promoting the secondary market trading in corporate bonds, 281

perhaps the most important factor is the existence of a reliable and liquid benchmark government securities yield curve. Even though the government securities market has seen a range of reforms in both the primary and secondary segments and a surge in issuances as well trading volumes, a stable and smooth sovereign yield curve, especially at the longer end of maturity is yet to emerge in India. If the yield cur ve derived from benchmark issues is to be reflective of an efficient risk free rate of return, there has to be sufficient liquidity in the government securities market. The number of actively traded government securities is very low as compared with the total number of securities outstanding. On a daily basis, hardly 10-12 securities are traded, of which only four or five securities trade actively. In the absence of active trading, the yield curve is kinky making pricing of securities difficult (Mohan, 2006a). However, the recent permission of short-selling in government securities should help in this regard. Trading and Settlement Infrastructure for the Debt Market 7.84 A well-organised debt market would mean more informed transactions and at fairer prices. For the secondary markets to function efficiently, the trading and settlement infrastructure has to be sufficiently developed. Even though both the BSE and the NSE offer an order-driven trading platform for trading in corporate debt paper, the trading volumes remain low. It may be added that the corporate bonds, even in some developed markets, face the problem of illiquidity as they are held till maturity. Also, they are mostly traded in OTC markets, although many of them are listed on stock exchanges. A depository system exists for issuance and transfer of securities in demat form and to facilitate trading, the stamp duty for trading in debt instruments in demat form has been abolished. However, unlike in the case of equities, the clearing house/corporation does not bear the counterparty risk for debt instruments. Thus, even for debt transactions taking place through the trading platform of stock exchanges, the settlement takes place directly between the participants. Debt Derivative Products 7.85 A well-developed corporate bond market cannot exist without a well-functioning market in derivatives in which interest rate risk is readily hedged. Derivative markets help in improving the liquidity of the underlying cash market. Derivative products generally have huge demand in mature markets as they provide investors

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with a wide range of investment products and instruments for managing their risks. The experience with fixed income derivative products in India, on the whole, has not been encouraging. Thus, in order to attract sophisticated investors to promote liquidity, it is imperative to develop appropriate hedging tools. Market Making for Debt Instruments 7.86 There is an important role that market making can play in the development of the corporate bond market. Market making has been actively used in developing the government as well as corporate bond markets in several countries by creating a network of dealers which provide two-way quotes by actively using repo markets. In some countries, the corporates themselves provide this facility by standing ready to buy and sell their bonds. In this way, they make market for their own bond issues and solve the illiquidity problem. In view of illiquid secondary market, market making, at least in the initial stages, can go a long way in creating liquidity and attracting investors to the bond market. Product Standardisation 7.87 Corporate bond papers are generally not standardised contracts as they carry along a slew of features. These include: (i) coupons linked to various reference rates; (ii) embedded options like call, put, convertibility and other options; (iii) different types of collateral; and (iv) other covenants. This makes it difficult to accurately price the credit risk associated with the bond. Standardisation of bond contracts could contribute to a better assessment of credit risk by investors. IV. SUMMING UP 7.88 Sound development of various segments of the capital market is a pre-requisite for a wellfunctioning financial system. The equity market in India has been modernised over the past 15 years and is now comparable with the inter national markets. There has been a visible improvement in trading and settlement infrastr ucture, r isk management systems and levels of transparency. These improvements have brought about a reduction in the transaction costs and led to improvement in liquidity. However, the size of the public issue segment has remained small as corporates have tended to prefer the international capital market and the private placement market. This has affected the growth of the public issues market and led to under282

participation by the investors in the capital market. The cor porate bond market, in par ticular, has remained underdeveloped, possibly due to the absence of a reliable and liquid yield curve, long time taken for floating an issue, high cost of issuance and lack of liquidity in the secondar y market. The promotion of a vibrant corporate bond market is essential for meeting the demand for long-term funds, especially for infrastructure requirements. 7.89 The development of any market requires removal of bottlenecks on supply as well as demand side, while putting in place alongside sound institutional and legal framework. In India, high economic growth has created ample demand for funds from the corporate sector which is reflected in sharp growth in bank credit and increased resource mobilisation from the international equity market and the private placement market. Encouraging business outlook and congenial investment climate have created stimulus for companies to undertake capacity expansion. On the supply side too, rising income levels and savings would require alter native investment options, including equity and corporate debt. The need, therefore, is to ensure that the capital market is well positioned to take advantage of these favourable factors. 7.90 There is a need to ensure that the corporates are able to raise resources from the capital market in a timely and cost-effective manner. The need is also felt to develop strong domestic institutional investors, which would serve many purposes. As the market evolution is an ongoing process, the Indian equity market would have to continuously strive to keep up to the international standards. In particular, corporate governance practices need to be strengthened further to raise the confidence level of a common investor. This would also enhance flow of institutional money to equities. 7.91 Learning from the experience of developing the government securities market, the development of the corporate debt market needs to proceed in a measured manner with well thought out sequencing (Mohan, 2006a). Such development also requires cooperation of and coordination with the key players. The initial steps towards developing the corporate bond market based on the recommendations of the High Level Expert Committee on Corporate Bonds and Securitisation have already been initiated. The Union Budget for 2006-07 had proposed to create a single unified exchange-traded market for corporate bonds. As a first step towards creation of a Unified Exchange Traded Bond Market, the SEBI has initiated

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steps to establish a system to capture all information related to trading in corporate bonds as accurately and as close to execution as possible through an author ised repor ting platfor m. The mar ket development process for bonds in India is likely to be a gradual process as has been experienced in other countries. For step by step development of the corporate bond market, it is necessary to lay down the broad objectives, which may include, (i) building a liquid government securities benchmark yield curve for appropriate pricing of debt instruments; (ii) promoting the growth of an active secondary market for spot and derivative transactions; and (iii) providing encouragement to issuers and investors to participate in the bond market. All these objectives are mutually reinforcing. The refor m process will be facilitated by a comprehensive regulatory framework. For the above scheme of things to yield the desired results, the regulators as well as market participants have to play a proactive role. The next phase of development may involve the setting up of a corporate debt trading platform, which enables efficient price discovery and reliable clearing and settlement, in a gradual manner. Concerted efforts by all concerned to expedite the process would enable the emergence of a vibrant corporate bond market in India. 7.92 The development of financial mar kets, especially the government securities market, is important for the entire debt market as it serves as a benchmark for pricing other debt market instruments, thereby aiding the monetary transmission process across the yield curve (Mohan, 2006b). Therefore, efforts have been made in India to broaden and deepen the government securities market so as to enable the process of efficient price discovery in

respect of interest rates. While developing the private corporate debt market, the experience gained from developing the government securities market should prove useful. It has been seen in the case of government securities market that there are difficulties in creating liquidity in bond markets. Liquidity in gover nment secur ities mar ket has remained concentrated in a few securities. The yield curve has emerged but it is not liquid at the longer end of the market. Even at the shorter end of the debt market, though several instruments have been introduced, liquidity remains low and banks remain the major investors. The corporate debt market would require a large number of investors and large sized issues to function effectively. Development of the the corporate debt market is bound to be time-consuming as the size of issuances would increase gradually alongside an expansion in the investor base. In the government securities market, the problem of small size of issues has been tackled through consolidation of issues. In the case of corporate bonds, this aspect may have to be addressed by bringing about more discipline in issuances and by following consolidation through reissuances. Taking a cue from the role played by primary dealers in the development of the government securities market, there may be a need for a similar institutional framework in the corporate debt market. Institutional innovations such as housing mortgage products would also play an important role. The refinements in the trading framework can aid in efficient price discovery. The counterparty guarantee for settlement of trades by the clearing corporation would reduce counterparty and settlement risks, thereby promoting secondary market trading in corporate bonds.

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Annex VII.1: Characteristics of Trading Frameworks for Corporate Bonds

Country Australia Trading Venue OTC Market Australian Stock Exchange Yieldbroker France Euronext OTC market Germany Frankfurt Stock Exchange OTC market Hong Kong Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Bloomberg India Japan OTC; Stock Exchanges Stock Exchanges OTC Market; ATS Malaysia OTC Market Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE) Singapore SGX-ST OTC Market Thailand UK OTC Market; Bond Electronic Exchnage London Stock Exchange ATS OTC Market US Multi-dealer ATS Inter-dealer broker ATS Single dealer trading system ATSs Auction-ATS NYSEs Automated Bond System Trade Execution Bilateral Cross-matching; Order-driven Bilateral Cross-matching; Automatching; Order-driven Bilateral Order-driven Bilateral Cross-matching; Automatching; Order-driven Multi-dealer auction Bilateral; Order-driven Auction Bilateral; Multi-dealer Bilateral Order-driven Cross-matching; Order-driven Bilateral Bilateral; Order-driven Market maker Multi-dealer; Order-driven Bilateral Order-driven Automated limit order book Cross-matching One-sided Cross-matching; Order-driven Direct Participants Dealers; Institutions ASX Broker Partcipants Dealers Exchange members Dealer institutions Exchange participants Dealer-to-dealer Dealers (exchange participants) Dealer-to-dealer Participants; Trading members Authorised intermediaries Dealer-to-client; Multi-dealer Dealers Exchange members Dealer-to-dealer; Institutions and retail through dealers Dealers; Institutional investors; Retail investors Dealers, Institutions Exchange members Dealers; Fund manager; Investment firms Dealer-to-institution; Dealerto-dealer Dealers, Institutions Dealer-to-dealer; Dealer-toinstitutions Dealers, Institutions Dealer-to-institution; Retail and institutions through dealers Dealers; Institutions NYSE members Electronic or by Phone Electronic; Phone Electronic Electronic Electronic Electronic; Phone Floor trading; Electronic Phone Electronic Electronic Phone; Electronic Electronic Electronic; Phone Electronic; Phone Electronic Electronic Electronic; Phone Electronic; Phone Electronic; Phone Electronic Electronic; Phone Electronic By phone Electronic Electronic Electronic Electronic

Source: 1. International Organisation for Securities Commission (IOSCO); 2. Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

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VIII

FINANCIAL MARKET INTEGRATION

8.1 Integration of financial markets is a process of unifying markets and enabling convergence of riskadjusted returns on the assets of similar maturity across the markets. The process of integration is facilitated by an unimpeded access of participants to various market segments. Financial markets all over the world have witnessed growing integration within as well as across boundaries, spurred by deregulation, globalisation and advances in information technology. Central banks in various parts of the world have made concerted efforts to develop financial markets, especially after the experience of several financial crises in the 1990s. As may be expected, financial markets tend to be better integrated in developed countries. At the same time, deregulation in emerging market economies (EMEs) has led to removal of restrictions on pricing of various financial assets, which is one of the pre-requisites for market integration. Capital has become more mobile across national boundaries as nations are increasingly relying on savings of other nations to supplement the domestic savings. Technological developments in electronic payment and communication systems have substantially reduced the arbitrage opportunities across financial centres, thereby aiding the cross border mobility of funds. Changes in the operating framework of monetary policy, with a shift in emphasis from quantitative controls to price-based instruments such as the short-term policy interest rate, brought about changes in the term structure of interest rates. This has contributed to the integration of various financial market segments. Harmonisation of prudential regulations in line with international best practices, by enabling competitive pricing of products, has also strengthened the market integration process. 8.2 Integrated financial markets assume vital importance for several reasons. First, integrated markets serve as a conduit for authorities to transmit important price signals (Reddy, 2003). Second, efficient and integrated financial markets constitute an important vehicle for promoting domestic savings, investment and consequently economic growth (Mohan, 2005). Third, financial market integration fosters the necessary condition for a countrys financial sector to emerge as an international or a regional financial centre (Reddy, 2003). Fourth, financial market integration, by enhancing competition and efficiency of intermediaries in their operations and allocation of resources, contributes to

financial stability (Trichet, 2005). Fifth, integrated markets lead to innovations and cost effective intermediation, thereby improving access to financial services for members of the public, institutions and companies alike (Giannetti et al., 2002). Sixth, integrated financial markets induce market discipline and informational efficiency. Seventh, market integration promotes the adoption of modern technology and payment systems to achieve cost effective financial intermediation services. 8.3 An important objective of reforms in India has been to integrate the various segments of the financial market for bringing about a transformation in the structure of markets, reducing arbitrage opportunities, achieving higher level of efficiency in market operation of intermediaries and increasing efficacy of monetary policy in the economy (Reddy, 1999, 2005d). Efficient allocation of funds across the financial sector and uniformity in the pricing of various financial products through greater inter-linkages of financial markets has been the basic emphasis of monetary policy (Mohan, 2005). In the domestic sphere, integration of markets has been pursued through strengthening competition, financial deepening with innovative instruments, easing of restrictions on flows or transactions, lowering of transaction costs and enhancing liquidity. Financial markets in India have also increasingly integrated with the global financial system as a result of calibrated and gradual capital account liberalisation in keeping with the under lying macroeconomic developments, the state of readiness of the domestic financial system and the dynamics of international financial markets (Reddy, 2005a). 8.4 In the above backdrop, this chapter examines in detail the various aspects of integration of financial markets within the country as well as with international financial markets. The chapter is organised in six sections. Section I provides a brief review of the concept of financial integration along with a discussion on measurement issues. The policy measures enabling financial market integration in India are discussed in Section II. Empirical analysis of domestic financial market integration is presented in Section III. Integration of domestic financial markets with international as well as regional financial markets is set out in Section IV. Section V suggests some measures for fur ther strengthening the integration process of the markets. Concluding observations are set out in Section VI.

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I.

CONCEPT AND DIMENSIONS OF FINANCIAL MARKET INTEGRATION

8.5 Financial market integration encompasses a complex interplay of various factors such as policy initiatives, structure and growth of financial intermediaries/markets, organic linkages among market participants and the preference of savers and investors for financial instruments. While assessing the integration of financial markets, it may be useful to keep in view the heterogeneity of markets, dimensions of integration, measurement issues and perceived benefits and risks of integration. Heterogeneity of Markets 8.6 Various financial market segments are not uniform as they trade in a variety of instruments, which differ in terms of risk and liquidity. First, some market segments are national, whereas others are international in nature, depending on where financial transactions occur among participants within a countrys geographic boundary or across the border. Generally, money and credit market segments involving participation of banks and other financial institutions operating within a countrys boundary are national in character. On the other hand, foreign exchange markets dealing with cross-border transactions and stock markets with crosslistings of securities and participation of foreign institutional investors are international in nature. Second, financial markets differ in terms of depth and liquidity. For instance, money market instruments are more liquid, while bonds in the capital markets are less liquid. Third, financial markets differ in terms of economic nature of instruments catering to various needs of economic agents. For instance, a distinction can be made between saving, investment, credit and derivative instruments. Fourth, financial markets are differentiated in terms of risk profile of instruments such as government bonds, which do not involve default and credit risks, and corporate bonds, which are relatively more risky in nature. Integration of market segments, thus, reflects an investors attitude towards risk and the trade-off between risk and return on assets. Fifth, market participants in different financial markets could be different such as banks, non-bank financial institutions, including mutual funds, insurance companies, mortgage institutions and specialised longterm financial institutions. 8.7 Financial market integration at the theoretical level has been postulated in several ways. The most popular economic principles of financial integration include the law of one price, term structure of interest rates, parity conditions such as purchasing power parity, 286

covered and uncovered interest parity conditions, capital asset price model, arbitrage price theory and BlackScholes principle of pricing derivatives (Box VIII.1). Dimensions of Financial Market Integration 8.8 Broadly, financial market integration occurs in three dimensions, nationally, regionally and globally (Reddy, 2002 and BIS, 2006). From an alternative perspective, financial market integration could take place horizontally and vertically. In the horizontal integration, inter-linkages occur among domestic financial market segments, while vertical integration occurs between domestic markets and international/ regional financial markets (USAID, 1998). 8.9 Domestic financial market integration entails horizontal linkages of various segments, reflecting portfolio diversification by savers, investors and intermediaries. Under horizontal integration, market interest rates typically revolve around a basic reference rate, which is defined as the price of a short-term lowrisk financial instrument in a competitive and liquid market. It typically provides the basic liquidity for the formal financial system and central banks often use it to gauge the tightness of monetary policy. Domestic markets may be closely integrated because intermediaries operate simultaneously in various market segments; for instance, commercial banks operate in both the saving (deposit) and loan markets. 8.10 Global integration refers to the opening up of domestic markets and institutions to the free crossborder flow of capital and financial services by removing barriers such as capital controls and withholding taxes. A deeper dimension of global integration entails removing obstacles to movement of people, technology and market participants across border (BIS, 2006). Global integration is promoted through harmonisation of national standards and laws, either through the adoption of commonly agreed minimum standards or the mutual recognition of standards (Reddy, 2005c). 8.11 Regional financial integration occurs due to ties between a given region and the major financial centre serving that region. Economic integration might be easier to achieve at a regional level due to network externalities and the tendency of market makers to concentrate in certain geographical centres. Gravity models, which take into account the economic sizes and distance between two countries, explain bilateral trade and investment flows. Furthermore, regional financial integration can be an important means of developing local financial markets, for instance, through peer pressure to strengthen institutions and upgrade local practices (BIS, 2006).

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Box VIII.1 Theory of Financial Market Integration

The law of one price (LOOP), pioneered by Augustin Cournot (1927) and Alfred Marshall (1930), constitutes the fundamental principle underlying financial market integration. According to the LOOP, in the absence of administrative and informational barriers, risk-adjusted returns on identical assets should be comparable across markets. While the LOOP provides a generalised framework for financial market integration, finance literature provides alternative principles, which establish operational linkages among different financial market segments. First, the term structure of interest rates, deriving from paradigms of unbiased expectations, liquidity preference, and market segmentation, establishes integration across the maturity spectrum, i.e., short, medium and long ends of the financial market (Blinder, 2004). Usually, the term structure is applied to a particular instrument such as the risk free government securities. In the monetary economics literature, it is recognised that the term structure of interest rate contains useful information about future paths of inflation and growth, which characterise the objective function of policy in most countries. Second, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) of Nobel laureate, William Sharpe (1964) is used widely for valuing systematic risk to financial assets. The CAPM establishes linkage between market instruments and risk free instruments such as government securities. The CAPM envisages a simplified world with no taxes and transaction costs, and identical investors. In such a world, super-efficient portfolio must be the market portfolio (Tobin, 1958). All investors will hold the market portfolio; leveraging or deleveraging would be driven by the risk-free asset in order to achieve a desired level of risk and return. Third, the BlackScholes principle of option pricing postulates linkage between derivative products on the one hand, and cash/spot market of underlying assets on the other. The often quoted put-call parity principle in finance theory states that in the absence of arbitrage opportunities, a derivative instrument can be replicated in terms of spot price of an underlying asset, coupled with some borrowing or lending activity. The forwardspot parity relation is used widely for analysing linkages between foreign exchange forwards and the money market instruments. Beyond economic and financial principles, financial markets integration could also occur due to information efficiency as economic agents form expectations about the future course of policy and real sector developments. For instance, even if transactions between residents and non-residents and between markets and intermediaries remain incomplete or limited due to regulatory barriers, participants could form expectation that such restrictions would not continue for long with a shift in policy regime towards greater opening and liberalisation of markets over time.

Measures of Financial Integration 8.12 The progress of domestic, global and regional financial integration could be measured using a number of approaches. Generally, these measures are divided into three categories: institutional/regulatory measures, quantity and price based measures. From a policy perspective, specific indicators of financial integration could be classified into de jure and de facto measures. The existence of legal restrictions on trade and capital flows across border as well as market segments is the most frequently used de jure indicators. However, these indicators have several shortcomings as restrictions may not be binding, or they are not respected because capital flows would not exist somehow. They may not cover a specific aspect of all possible impediments to financial integration (Prasad et al., 2006). Moreover, in practice, de jure indicators adopting a dichotomous scheme of the existence or absence of restrictions may not reveal actual degree of openness of countries to capital flows. 8.13 De facto indicators of financial integration are usually based either on prices or quantities. The commonly used price based measures for gauging price equalisation and convergence of market segments include cross-market spreads, correlations 287

among various interest rates, tests of common trend in the term structure of interest rates and volatility transmission. From a policy perspective, interest rate spreads between the official short-term rate and a benchmark short-term market instrument on the one hand, and various other market interest rates on the other, are used for measuring price convergence and effectiveness of policy. Price-related measures also include covered and uncovered interest rate parity as well as asset price correlations between countries. There are, however, serious practical problems in using prices to measure global or regional financial integration, particularly in emerging markets. This is because prices may move together because of a common external factor or because of similar macroeconomic fundamentals and not because of market integration. Moreover, prices may be affected by differences in currency, credit and liquidity risks, implying different price movements even if there is a substantial degree of financial integration (Prasad et al., 2006). 8.14 Liquidity and turnover data are used as quantitative indicators for measuring inter-linkages among domestic financial market segments. For global integration, capital flows indicate whether a country is becoming more or less financially integrated over time. In this context, gross capital flows are a

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better measure than net flows because the latter may underestimate the degree of integration of those countries with similarly large inflows and outflows. One limitation of capital flows, as an indicator of how fast financial integration is proceeding, is that they are influenced by changes in short-term market conditions and can fluctuate sharply. Stock measures, based on the accumulation of gross capital flows after taking into account valuation effects, are less affected by short-term market conditions. These measures are preferred generally for emerging market economies. A more direct measure of financial openness is based on the estimated gross stocks of foreign assets and liabilities as a share of GDP. The stock data is a better

indicator of integration since it is less volatile and is less prone to measurement error, assuming that such errors are not correlated over time (Prasad et al., 2003). Benefits and Risks of Financial Integration 8.15 Though financial integration provides several benefits, it also involves various risks. The benefits and costs of financial market integration depend on the degree of domestic financial market integration, international financial integration and financial development. Evaluating the benefits and risks of financial market integration is a complex issue, in particular, in an economy with open capital account (Box VIII.2).

Box VIII.2 Benefits and Risks of Financial Integration

The benefits and costs of financial integration can be viewed from the perspective of sovereigns, individuals, corporates, and financial institutions. In the hierarchy, domestic financial market integration comes first, followed by global and regional integration (Sundarajan et al., 2003). Unlike international integration, the benefits of domestic financial integration are hardly contested. Domestic financial markets constitute a critical pillar of a market-based economy as they mobilise savings, allocate risk, absorb external financial shocks, foster good governance through market-based incentives and contribute to more stable investment financing and, thus, higher economic growth, lower macroeconomic volatility and greater financial stability (Mohan, 2005). The development of local financial markets also reduces the risks associated with excessive reliance on foreign capital, including currency and maturity mismatches (Prasad et al., 2003). Domestic integration provides an effective channel for the transmission of policy impulses (Ptursson, 2001; Bhoi and Dhal, 1998). The benefits of global integration depend on size, composition, and quality of capital flows. Global financial integration involves direct and indirect or collateral benefits (Prasad et al,. 2006). Analytical arguments supporting financial openness revolve around main considerations such as the benefits of international risk sharing for consumption smoothing, the positive impact of capital flows on domestic investment and growth, enhanced macroeconomic discipline and increased efficiency as well as greater stability of the domestic financial system associated with financial openness (Agenor, 2001). International financial integration could positively affect total factor productivity (Levine, 2001). Financial openness may increase the depth and breadth of domestic financial markets and lead to an increase in the degree of efficiency of the financial intermediation process by lowering costs and excessive profits associated with monopolistic and cartelised markets, thereby lowering the cost of investment and improving the resource allocation (Levine, 1996; Caprio and Honhan, 1999). Empirical studies on international integration offer mixed perspectives on the benefits of financial integration. The cumulative growth performance of emerging markets, excluding China and India, appears less spectacular than usually perceived under globalisation (Prasad et al., 2006). Financial market integration also poses some risks and entails costs. A major risk is that of contagion, which was evident in the case of East Asian crisis. There are two channels through which the contagion normally works. One, the real channel, which relates to potential for domino effects through real exposures on participants operating in other segments. Two, the information channel which relates to contagious withdrawals due to lack of accurate and timely information. Increased domestic and international integration accentuates the risk of contagion as problems in one market segment are likely to be transmitted to other markets with the potential to cause systemic instability. In the context of globalisation, potential costs include the high degree of concentration of capital flows, misallocation of flows, which may hamper their growth effects and exacerbate domestic distortions; the loss of macroeconomic stability; the pro-cyclical nature of short-term capital flows and the risk of abrupt reversals; a high degree of volatility of capital flows, which relates in part to herding and contagion effects; and risks associated with foreign bank penetration (Dadush, Dasgupta and Ratha; 2000). Most studies find that direct investment tends to be less volatile than other forms of capital flows (Chuhan et al., 1996; Brewer and Nollen, 2000; Sarno and Taylor, 1999). Volatility of capital flows translates into exchange rate instability (under flexible exchange rate) or large fluctuations in official reserves (under a pegged exchange rate regime) and sometimes currency crises as was observed in the East Asian crisis. For instance, nominal exchange rate volatility may hamper expansion of exports if appropriate hedging techniques are not available to exporters. Large capital inflows could also lead to rapid monetary expansion (due to the difficulty and cost of pursuing aggressive sterilisation policies), inflationary pressures (resulting from the effect of capital inflows on domestic spending), real exchange rate appreciation and widening of current account deficits.

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8.16 In recent years, there appears to be some rethinking about financial globalisation based on the experience of various crises in the late 1990s and the current global imbalances (Reddy, 2005b). Owing to contagion effects, some economists have viewed increasing capital account liberalisation and unfettered capital flows as a serious impediment to global financial stability (Rodrik, 1998; Bhagwati, 1998; and Stiglitz, 2002). Others argue that increased capital account openness has largely proven essential for countries aiming to upgrade from lower to middleincome status (Prasad et al., 2006). In order to benefit from international capital inflows, host countries need to pursue sound macroeconomic policies, develop strong institutions and adopt an appropriate regulatory framework for the stability of financial systems and sustained economic progress (Reddy, 2003 and 2005). 8.17 There is growing realisation that unlike trade integration, where benefits to all countries are demonstrable, in the case of financial integration, a threshold in terms of preparedness and resilience of the economy is important for a country to get full benefits (Kose et al., 2006). A judgemental view needs to be taken whether and when a country has reached the threshold. The nature of optimal integration is highly country-specific and contextual. Financial integration needs to be approached cautiously, preferably within the framework of a plausible roadmap that is drawn up embodying the countryspecific context and institutional features. On balance, there appears to be a greater advantage in wellmanaged and appropriate integration into the global process, which implies not large-scale but more effective interventions by the authorities. In fact, markets do not and cannot exist in a vacuum, i.e., without some externally imposed rules and such order is a result of public policy (Reddy, 2006b). Thus, with a view to enhancing financial sector efficiency, it is necessary not only to foster competition among institutions but also to develop a system that facilitates transparent and symmetric dissemination of maximum information to the markets. II. POLICY MEASURES ENABLING MARKET INTEGRATION IN INDIA

mar ket segments. Banks remained captive subscribers to government securities under statutory arrangements. The secondary market of government securities was dormant. In the equity market, new equity issues were governed by several complex regulations and restrictions. The secondary market trading of such equities lacked transparency and depth. The foreign exchange market remained extremely shallow as most transactions were governed by inflexible and low limits under exchange regulation and prior approval requirements. The exchange rate was linked to a basket of currencies. Although the financial sector grew considerably in the regulated environment, it could not achieve the desired level of efficiency. Compartmentalisation of activities of different types of financial intermediaries eliminated the scope for competition among existing financial intermediaries (Mohan, 2004b). 8.19 Financial markets reform initiated in the early 1990s focused on removal of structural bottlenecks, introduction of new players/instruments, free pricing of financial assets, relaxation of quantitative restrictions, improvement in trading, clearing and settlement practices and greater transparency (Mohan, 2004b, 2006). Other policy initiatives in the money, the foreign exchange, the gover nment securities and the equity markets were aimed at strengthening institutions, greater transparency, encouraging good market practices, effective payment and settlement mechanism, rationalised tax structures and enabling legislative framework. Dismantling of various price and non-price controls in the financial system has facilitated the integration of financial markets. While various measures initiated to develop the markets have been delineated in the respective chapters, some measures, in particular, facilitated the integration of markets (Box VIII.3). III. DOMESTIC FINANCIAL MARKET INTEGRATION IN INDIA 8.20 Broadly, Indias domestic financial market comprises the money market, the credit market, the government securities market, the equity market, the corporate debt market and the foreign exchange market, each of which has been addressed at length in the previous chapters. The channels of integration among various market segments differ. For instance, the Indian money and the foreign exchange markets are intrinsically linked in view of the presence of commercial banks and the short-term nature of both markets. The linkage is established through various channels such as banks borrowing in overseas 289

8.18 Until the early 1990s, Indias financial sector was tightly controlled. Interest rates in all market segments were administered. The flow of funds between various market segments was restricted by extensive micro-regulations. There were also restrictions on participants operating in different

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Box VIII.3 Measures Enabling Financial Market Integration in India

Broadly, integration of financial markets in India has been facilitated by various measures in the form of free pricing, widening of participation base in markets, introduction of new instruments and improvements in payment and settlement infrastructure. Free Pricing

Corporates were allowed to under take active hedging operations by resorting to cancellation and rebooking of forward contracts, booking forward contracts based on past performance, using foreign currency options and forwards, and accessing foreign currency-rupee swap to manage longer-term exposures arising out of external commercial borrowings. Integration of the credit market and the equity market was strengthened by application of capital adequacy norms and allowing public sector banks to raise capital from the equity market up to 49 per cent of their paid-up capital.

Free pricing in financial markets was facilitated by various measures. These include, inter alia, freedom to banks to decide interest rate on deposits and credit; withdrawal of a ceiling of 10 per cent on call money rate imposed by the Indian Banks Association in 1989; replacement of administered interest rates on government securities by an auction system; abolition of the system of ad hoc Treasury Bills in April 1997 and replacement by the system of Ways and Means Advances (WMAs) with effect from April 1, 1997; shift in the exchange rate regime from a singlecurrency fixed-exchange rate system to a market-determined floating exchange rate regime; gradual liberalisation of the capital account in line with the recommendations of the Committee on Capital Account Convertibility (Chairman: Shri S. S. Tarapore) (see Chapter VI on Foreign Exchange Market); and freedom to banks to determine interest rates (subject to a ceiling) and maturity period of Foreign Currency Non-Resident (FCNR) deposits (not exceeding three years); and to use derivative products for hedging risk. In the capital market, the Capital Issues (Control) Act, 1947 was repealed. The introduction of the book-building process in the new issue market strengthened the price discovery process.

New Instruments

Repurchase agreement (repo) was introduced as a tool of shortterm liquidity adjustment. The liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) is open to banks and primary dealers. The LAF has emerged as a tool for both liquidity management and also signalling device for interest rates in the overnight market. Several new financial instruments such as inter-bank participation certificates (1988), certificates of deposit (June 1989), commercial paper (January 1990) and repos (December 1992) were introduced. Collateralised borrowing and lending obligation (CBLO) and market repos have also emerged as money market instruments. New auction-based instruments were introduced for 364-day, 182-day, 91-day and 14-day Treasury Bills, the zero coupon bond and government of India dated securities. In the long-term segment, Floating Rate Bonds (FRBs) benchmarked to the 364day Treasury Bills yields and a 10-year loan with embedded call and put options exercisable on or after 5 years from the date of issue were introduced. Derivative products such as forward rate agreements and interest rate swaps were introduced in July 1999 to enable banks, FIs and PDs to hedge interest rate risks. A rupee-foreign currency swap market was developed. ADs in the foreign exchange market were permitted to use cross-currency options, interest rate and currency swaps, caps/collars and forward rate agreements (FRAs) in the international foreign exchange market, thereby facilitating the deepening of the market and enabling participants to diversify their risk.

Widening Participation

Enhanced presence of foreign banks, in line with Indias commitment to the World Trade Organisation under GATS, strengthened domestic and international markets inter-linkages, apart from increasing competition. Initially, the participation in the call market was gradually widened by including non-banks such as financial institutions, non-banking financial companies, primary/satellite dealers, mutual funds and corporates (through primary dealers). The process of transformation of the call money market into a pure inter-bank market, which commenced from May 2001, was completed in August 2005. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were allowed to participate in the Indian equity market and set up 100 per cent debt funds to invest in government (Central and State) dated securities in both the primary and secondary markets. This provided a major thrust to the integration of domestic markets with international markets. The linkage between the domestic foreign exchange market and the overseas market (vertical integration) was facilitated by allowing banks/authorised dealers (ADs) to borrow and invest funds abroad (subject to certain limits), and to lend in foreign currency to companies in India for any productive purpose, giving them the choice to economise on interest cost and exchange risk. Exporters also have the ability to substitute rupee credit for foreign currency credit. Indian companies were permitted to raise resources from abroad, through American/Global Depository Receipts (ADRs/ GDRs), foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs) and external commercial borrowings (ECBs), thus, facilitating integration of domestic capital market with international capital market. The Reserve Bank allowed two-way fungibility of ADRs/GDRs in February 2002.

Institutional Measures

Institutions such as Discount and Finance House of India (DFHI), Securities Trading Corporation of India (STCI) and PDs were allowed to participate in more than one market, thus strengthening the market inter-linkages. The Clearing Corporation of India Ltd. (CCIL) was set up to act as a central counter-party to all trades involving foreign exchange, government securities and other debt instruments routed through it and to guarantee their settlement.

Technology, Payment and Settlement Infrastructure

The Delivery-versus-Payment system (DvP), the Negotiated Dealing System (NDS) and subsequently, the advanced Negotiated Dealing System Order Matching (NDS-OM) trading module and the real time gross settlement system (RTGS) have brought about immense benefits in facilitating transactions and improving the settlement process, which have helped in the integration of markets. In the equity market, the floor-based open outcry trading system was replaced by electronic trading system in all the stock exchanges.

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markets, providing hedging facilities to corporates, accepting foreign currency deposits and acting as conduit for making payments for overseas merchant transactions. The linkage between the call money and the government securities markets exists, as at times, large positions in government securities are funded through short-term borrowings. The foreign exchange market and the equity markets are linked through the operations of foreign institutional investors. The emerging linkages among the money, the government securities and the foreign exchange markets have at times necessitated the use of short-term monetary measures by the Reserve Bank for meeting demandsupply mismatches to curb volatility. Phases of Market Integration in India 8.21 Various segments of financial markets have become better integrated in the reform period, especially from the mid-1990s (Chart VIII.1). As reforms in the financial markets progressed, linkages amongst various segments of market and between domestic and international markets improved. For the purpose of analysis, financial market linkages could be divided into two distinct phases. The first phase refers to the early transition period of the 1990s and the second phase is the period of relative stability in the financial markets from 2000 onwards. 8.22 In the first phase, domestic financial markets witnessed modest integration. Financial markets, in general, lacked depth as measured by the turnover in various market segments (Table 8.1). Domestic financial markets during this phase witnessed easing of various restrictions, which created enabling

conditions for increased inter-linkages amongst market segments. The institution of a market-based exchange rate mechanism in March 1993 and transition to current account convertibility in August 1994 facilitated inter-linkages between the money and the foreign exchange markets. Since the beginning of second half of the 1990s, some episodes of volatility were witnessed in the money and the foreign exchange markets, which underscored the gradual integration of the domestic money market and the foreign exchange market. 8.23 Financial markets in India felt the initial impulses of the contagion from financial crises in

Table 8.1: Depth of Financial Markets in India - Average Daily Turnover

(Rupees crore) Year 1 1991-92*** 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 Money Market* 2 6,579 40,923 65,500 76,722 28,146 31,832 39,997 56,413 Government Securities Market 3 391 2,802 6,252 7,067 8,445 4,826 3,643 4,863 Foreign Exchange Market # 4 21,198 23,173 24,207 30,714 39,952 56,391 83,894 Equity Market** (Cash Segment) 5 469 9,308 3,310 3,711 6,309 6,556 9,504 11,760 Equity Derivatives at NSE 6 11 410 1,752 8,388 10,107 19,220 29,803

* : Including the call money, the notice money, the term money and the repo markets. The turnover in the CBLO segment was Rs.6,698 crore in 2004-05, Rs. 20,040 crore in 2005-06 and Rs. 32,390 crore in 2006-07. ** : Includes both BSE and NSE turnover. *** : Data for the government securities market and the equity market pertain to 1995-96. # : Inter-bank turnover only. : Not available. Source : Reserve Bank of India; Bombay Stock Exchange Limited; and National Stock Exchange of India Limited.

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the East Asian countries, which erupted in the second half of 1997-98. Pressures from contagion re-emerged in the mid-November 1997, following the weakening of the sentiment in response to financial crisis spreading to hit South Korea and far off Latin Amer ican mar kets. The East Asian cr isis necessitated policy action by the Reserve Bank to mitigate excess demand conditions in the foreign exchange market. It also moved to siphon off excess liquidity from the system in order to reduce the scope for arbitrage between the easy money market and the volatile foreign exchange market. Foreign currency operations were undertaken in the third quarter of 1997-98 to curb volatility in the exchange rate. This helped in maintaining stability in the exchange rate of the rupee, but resulted in reduced money market support to the government borrowing, leading to an increase in the Centres monetised deficit. The Reserve Bank tightened its monetary policy stance by raising the CRR and the Bank Rate, thus, substituting cheap discretionary liquidity with expensive discretionary liquidity. A host of monetary policy actions were taken to tighten liquidity in November and December 1997 and January 1998. 1 Monetary policy tightening measures in the wake of East Asian crisis led to hardening of domestic interest rates across various segments in the money market and the gover nment securities market, especially at the short-end. Restoration of stability in the domestic financial markets in the second half of 1998, especially in the foreign exchange market, led the Reserve Bank to ease some of the monetary policy tightening measures under taken earlier. Several banks reduced their lending and deposit rates in response to the Bank Rate cut as also in line with seasonal trends. 8.24 The second phase, beginning 2000 onwards, reflects the period of broad stability in financial markets with intermittent episodes of volatility. The process of financial market integration was more pronounced during this phase. A growing integration between the money, the gilt and the foreign exchange market segments was visible in the convergence of financial prices, within and among various segments and co-movement in interest rates. The capital market exhibited generally isolated behaviour from the other segments of domestic financial markets. However, there was a clear indication of growing

cross-border integration as the domestic stock markets declined sharply in line with the sharp decline in international technology stock driven exchanges in 2001. On several other occasions also, the Indian equity markets tended to move in tandem with major international stock markets. 8.25 Growing integration of financial markets beginning 2000 could be gauged from cross correlation among various market interest rates. The correlation structure of interest rates reveals several notable features of integration of specific market segments (Table 8.2). First, in the money market segment, there is evidence of stronger correlation among interest rates in the more recent period 200006 than the earlier period 1993-2000, suggesting the impact of policy initiatives undertaken for financial deepening. The enhanced correlation among interest rates also indicates improvement in efficiency in the operations of financial intermediaries trading in different instruments. Second, the high correlation between risk free and liquid instruments such as Treasur y Bills, which ser ve as benchmar k instruments, and other market instruments such as certificates of deposit (CDs) and commercial papers (CPs) and forward exchange premia, underlines the efficiency of the price discovery process. Third, the sharp improvement in correlation between the reverse repo rate and money market rates in the recent period implies enhanced effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. Fourth, the high degree of correlation between long-term government bond yield and shortterm Treasury Bills rate indicates the significance of term-structure of interest rates in financial markets. Fifth, the correlation between interest rates in money mar kets and three-month forward premia was significantly high, indicating relatively high horizontal integration. Integration of the foreign exchange market with the money mar ket and the gover nment securities market has facilitated closer co-ordination of monetar y and exchange rate policies. The consequences of foreign exchange mar ket inter vention are kept in mind in monetar y management which includes constant monitoring of the supply of banking system liquidity and an active use of open market operations to adjust liquidity conditions. Sixth, the equity market appears to be segmented with relatively low and negative correlation with money market segments.

See Chapter VI for details.

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Table 8.2: Correlation Among Major Financial Markets

(April 1993 to March 2000) Instrument 1 RREPO Call TB91 TB364 Yield10 CDs CPs FR1 FR3 FR6 EXCH LBSES RREPO 2 1.00 0.35 0.44 0.32 0.04 0.30 0.39 0.27 0.28 0.30 0.03 -0.37 Call 3 1.00 0.61 0.40 0.46 0.32 0.54 0.80 0.68 0.61 -0.04 -0.10 TB91 4 TB364 5 Yield10 6 CDs 7 CPs 8 FR1 9 FR3 10 FR6 11 EXCH 12 LBSES 13

1.00 0.90 0.57 0.45 0.81 0.45 0.47 0.48 -0.23 -0.24

1.00 0.49 0.41 0.75 0.33 0.32 0.36 -0.38 -0.34

1.00 0.38 0.57 0.46 0.56 0.60 -0.06 -0.05

1.00 0.71 0.47 0.58 0.62 -0.19 -0.40

1.00 0.63 0.65 0.68 -0.31 -0.28

1.00 0.97 0.91 -0.25 -0.32

1.00 0.98 0.12 -0.28

1.00 0.13 -0.30

1.00 0.35

1.00

(April 2000 to March 2007) RREPO Call TB91 TB364 Yield10 CDs CPs FR1 FR3 FR6 EXCH LBSES TB91 Yield10 CPs FR1 FR6 LBSES Note : : : : : : : 1.00 0.77 0.85 0.83 0.79 0.75 0.80 0.57 0.59 0.60 0.27 -0.19 1.00 0.88 0.85 0.79 0.88 0.85 0.64 0.58 0.56 0.06 0.01

1.00 0.99 0.96 0.93 0.96 0.58 0.60 0.60 0.08 -0.07

1.00 0.98 0.92 0.94 0.52 0.54 0.55 0.04 -0.05

1.00 0.89 0.92 0.51 0.54 0.56 0.06 -0.11

1.00 0.95 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.14 -0.06 RREPO Call TB364 CDs FR3 EXCH

1.00 0.66 0.70 0.71 0.21 -0.13 : : : : : :

1.00 0.97 0.93 0.51 -0.39

1.00 0.99 0.61 -0.50

1.00 0.66 -0.56

1.00 -0.69

1.00

91-day Treasury Bills rate. 10-year government securities yield. Commercial paper rate. 1-month forward exchange premia. 6-month forward exchange premia. Natural logarithm of BSE Sensex. Based on monthly data.

Reverse repo rate. Inter-bank call money rate (weighted average). 364-day Treasury Bills rate. Certificates of deposit rate. 3-month forward premia. Exchange rate of Indian rupee per US dollar.

Segment-wise Integration Integration of the Government Securities Market 8.26 The existence of a well-developed government securities market is a pre-requisite for a market-based monetary policy and for facilitating financial market integration. The government securities market is also required to develop a domestic rupee yield curve, which could provide a credible benchmark for pricing of securities in other markets. The government securities market is increasingly getting integrated with other market segments as is reflected in the close co-movement of interest rates. As alluded to earlier, a high degree of correlation between long-term government bond yields and short-term Treasury Bills rates in recent years demonstrates the significance 293

of the term-structure of interest rates in the financial market. Furthermore, the movement of 3-month rupee interest rate implied from the forward premia has also moved largely in tandem with the 91-day Treasury Bills rate, barring the redemption phase of Resurgent India Bond when the forward premia turned negative, implying a reasonable level of integration of the gover nment securities market with the foreign exchange market (Chart VIII.2). 8.27 As indicated earlier, the efficiency of monetary policy also hinges on how effectively impulses are transmitted across various financial markets, which in tur n, is incidental upon the level of market integration. An improvement in the transmission of impulses was reflected in the sharp moderation in the

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

term premium in the government securities market, especially the narrowing down of the spread on 10year government bond yield and Treasury Bills instruments in the recent period (Chart VIII.3). Since long-term interest rates account for a premium charge on liquidity risk and various uncertainties relating to macroeconomic fundamentals such as inflation and growth, the flattening of the yield curve or narrowing of spread between long-term and short-term interest rates points towards a stronger economy and stable financial environment.

8.28 For effective market integration, it is essential that there exists a deep secondar y market for government securities, which provides a benchmark for valuation of other market instruments, and the turnover of the instruments in both primary and secondary markets is fairly large. The turnover in the secondary segment of government securities market, indicating the depth of this market segment, inter alia, is influenced by some key factors such as monetary policy stance, banks SLR holding and credit demand by the private sector. This was evident in the rise in turnover in the secondary market for government securities, fuelled by banks excess SLR holding during the period of softening interest rates. In the recent period, following the tightening of policy stance and rise in credit demand, banks have reduced SLR holdings close to the prescribed limit. Reduction in volumes in the secondary segment of government securities in the second half of 2006 was mostly due to rise in interest rates apart from demand side factors. The secondary market turnover has, thus, declined in the recent period (Chart VIII.4). This trend, if persists for long, could affect the depth and yield in this segment and consequently pose some challenges for effective market integration. International evidence suggests that banks tend to rebalance their portfolio and reduce their holding of government securities when interest rates rise. For instance, in the US, the propor tion of gover nment secur ities held by commercial banks in total US government securities declined to 1.6 per cent in 2005 from 5.3 per cent in 2003 when the interest rates rose following increase

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in the Federal Funds Rate from 1.25 per cent in 2003 to 5.0 per cent in 20052 . Integration of the Credit Market 8.29 The integration of the credit market with other money mar ket segments has become more pronounced in recent years. Sustained credit demand has led to higher demand for funds, exerting some pressure on liquidity. This was reflected in the decline in banks investment in government securities and higher activity in all the money market segments such as inter-bank call money, collateralised borrowing and lending obligation (CBLO) and market repo rates. Total volume in these three markets increased from Rs.16,132 crore in March 2005 to Rs.35,024 crore in March 2006 and further to Rs.38,484 crore in February 2007. Banks also resorted to increased issuances in the CDs market to meet their liquidity requirements. Outstanding CDs increased from Rs.12,078 crore in March 2005 to Rs.43,568 crore in March 2006 and further to Rs.77,971 crore by March 2, 2007. 8.30 In the context of credit market integration with other markets, particularly, the benchmark government securities, there is evidence of high correlation between the commercial paper rate and the Treasury Bills rate. Also, the AAA rated 5-year corporate bond yield and government securities yield of corresponding maturity show high co-movement (Chart VIII.5). However, the spread of the AAA rated 5-year corporate bond yield over government securities yield of corresponding maturity has increased in the recent period. Under competitive market condition, the market rate should be equal to risk free rate plus a risk premium3 . Though a simple regression model confirmed the unitary elasticity response of the corporate bond rate to government securities yield, the model was subject to auto-correlated errors, implying some imperfection in the corporate debt market. Furthermore, in an alternative specification using weekly data, it was found that the AAA rated 5-year corporate bond spread over the risk free 91-day Treasury Bills rate could be significantly determined by the term spread, i.e., the spread of 5-year government securities yield over 91-day Treasury Bills rate, and default premia (AAA rated 5-year corporate bond yield less AB rated 52 3

year corporate bond yield), besides the persistence in corporate bond spread (its own lagged terms). Thus, a rising spread between the corporate bond yield and the benchmark risk free government bond yield suggests that the corporate debt market continues to lack adequate depth and liquidity. As indicated by the High Level Expert Committee on Corporate Bonds and Securitisation, 2005 (Chairman: Dr. R. H. Patil), the corporate debt market, which is at a nascent stage of development, needs to be strengthened, inter alia, in terms of investor base and enhanced liquidity through consolidation of the issuance process by creating large floating stocks. Integration of the Foreign Exchange Market 8.31 The degree of integration of the foreign exchange market with other markets is largely determined by the degree of openness. At the cornerstone of the international finance, integration through foreign exchange market is characterised with the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) doctrine and the three international interest parity conditions, viz., the Covered Interest Parity (CIP), the Uncovered Interest

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the US. Also, www.bondmarkets.com For a sample period of April 2003 to February 2007, applying a regression of AAA rated 5-year corporate bond yield upon 5-year government securities yield, the following estimates were found: Corporate Bond Yield = 0.40 + 1.05 G-sec Yield (1.50) (25.50) 2 R = 0.94, DW = 0.34. Figures in parentheses are estimated t-values. The unity restriction on the coefficient of G-sec yield could not be rejected.

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Parity (UIP) and the Real Interest Parity (RIP). According to the PPP, in the absence of restrictions on cross border movements of goods and services and assuming no transactions costs, commodity prices expressed in any single currency should be the same all over the world. In other words, the path of the nominal exchange rate should be guided by the developments in the domestic prices of goods and services vis--vis prices of the major trading partners. The behaviour of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) could, therefore, indicate whether the nominal exchange rate moves as per the principle of PPP. The simplest approach to test PPP is just a test of stationarity of the REER, i.e., to see whether deviations from the PPP are temporary and whether over time the REER reverts to some mean or equilibrium, usually the benchmark level at 100, subject to a base year. In India, the 36currency REER did not show any sustained appreciation or depreciation over longer horizon during the April 1993-December 2006 (Chart VIII.6). During this period, it hovered around the mean at 99.2, which was close to the benchmark level. A formal unit root test also suggests that the broad-based REER is stationary, thus, supporting the purchasing power parity in the long-run. 8.32 According to the Covered Interest Parity (CIP), the rates of retur n on homogenous financial instruments that are denominated in same currency, but traded domestically or offshore must be equal under efficient market conditions, provided exchange controls do not exist and country risk premium is similar in two markets. The CIP implies that yield on foreign investment that is covered in forward markets equals the yield on domestic investment. The interest differential is offset by premium or discount on the forward rate. The absence of covered interest differential indicates that there are some impediments to financial integration, attributable to some element

of market imperfection, transaction costs, market liquidity conditions, margin requirements, taxation and market entry-exit conditions. In the Indian context, the forward price of the rupee is not essentially determined by the interest rate differentials, but it is also significantly influenced by: (a) supply and demand of forward US dollars; (b) interest rate differentials and expectations of future interest rates; and (c) expectations of future US dollar-rupee exchange rate. Empirical evidence supports this view, as three month forward premia has less than perfect co-movement with interest rate differential (between 91-day treasury bill rate and three-month LIBOR), indicative of the time varying nature of the risk premium. Inter-linkage becomes stronger when the interest rate differential is based on the monthly average call money rate and one-month LIBOR (Chart VIII.7). The relationship

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improves still further, when the difference between commercial paper (CP) rate in India and the 3-month US dollar LIBOR rate is considered for interest parity assessments. The deviation of the forward premium from the interest parity condition appears to increase during volatile conditions in the spot segment of the foreign exchange market. 8.33 The Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) implies that ex-ante, expected home currency returns on foreign bonds or deposits in excess of domestic deposits of equal maturity and default risk should be zero. The currency composition of the asset holdings is, therefore, irrelevant in determining relative returns. The prevalence of UIP also implies that the cost of financing for domestic firms in domestic and foreign markets would be the same. Operating through rational expectations, the UIP suggests that expected changes in the nominal exchange rates should approximate the interest rate differentials. In the Indian context, though empirical studies confir m the existence of CIP, they dispute the existence of UIP. Usually, if CIP holds, UIP will also hold if investors are risk-neutral and form their expectations rationally, so that expected depreciation of home currency equals the forward discount (Box VIII.4). Stock Market Integration 8.34 As alluded to earlier, the equity market has relatively low and negative correlation with other market segments (Table 8.2). The low correlation of the equity market with risk free instruments is indicative of greater volatility of stock returns and the existence of large equity risk premium. The large risk premium occurs when equity price movements cannot be rationalised with standard inter-temporal optimisation models of macroeconomic fundamentals such as consumption and savings (Mehra and Prescott, 1985). This could be on account of different participants in the equity and other financial markets. For instance, the common participation by banks in the money, the government, the foreign exchange and the credit markets ensures fairly high correlation among these segments. The exposure of banks to the capital market remains limited on account of restrictions due to prudential regulation. A major reason for the surge in equity prices could be due to demand-supply mismatches for equity securities. In fact, a large proportion of equities is held by promoters and institutional investors as detailed in Chapter VII. The supply of securities for retail investors could possibly be lagging behind their demand. Equity prices, however, 297

have relatively higher correlation with the forward exchange rate than other market interest rates. This is because portfolio investors, mainly, the FIIs, are allowed to hedge their exposure in the foreign exchange market through the forward market. Integration and Stability of Markets 8.35 Financial markets integration process could be smooth or volatile depending on the risks associated with different instruments. When financial integration occurs in a smooth manner, it promotes efficiency in allocation of resources and stability of the financial system. On the contrary, volatility induced integration fuels speculation and under mines competitive price discovery process, with adverse consequences for resource allocation. In the Indian context, empirical evidence shows that growing integration among financial market segments has been accompanied by lower volatility in interest rates (Table 8.3). Barring the stock market, various segments of financial markets, in general, witnessed significantly lower volatility (measured by standard deviation) during April 2000 to March 2007 than the earlier period April 1993 to March 2000. The crosssection volatility of market interest rates has also declined, suggesting the convergence of interest rates due to effective management of liquidity and increasing depth of financial markets. 8.36 The reduction in volatility in the money market segment, in particular, coincided with the introduction of the full-fledged liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) in 2000-01. The operation of the LAF has generally managed to keep the overnight rate, i.e., the call money rate in the corridor of reverse repo rate and repo rate (Chart VIII.8). The gradual phasing out of non-banks from the call money market has led to development of collateralised markets such as the repo market and the CBLO. The migration to the collateralised segments has also reduced the volatility in the overnight money market rates as availability of alternative avenues for mobilising short-term funds has enabled market rates to align with the informal interest rate corridor of repo and reverse repo rate under the LAF. Financial Market Integration and Monetary Policy 8.37 Developed and integrated financial markets are pre-requisites for effective and credible transmission of monetar y policy impulses. The success of a monetary policy transmission framework that relies on indirect instruments of monetary

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Box VIII.4 Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency

In the context of a countrys international financial integration, an important issue is the degree of foreign exchange market efficiency, which can be examined through empirical evaluation of covered interest parity (CIP) and uncovered parity (UIP) hypotheses. The interest parity hypothesis is important from a policy perspective (Blinder, 2004). First, the CIP reflects information efficiency of the foreign exchange market. Deviations from CIP can arise because of imperfect integration with overseas mar kets. Second, the UIP could be attr ibuted to effectiveness of sterilised foreign exchange market intervention by central banks as well as that of interest rate defence of the exchange rate. To the extent that UIP is valid, official intervention cannot successfully change the prevailing spot exchange rate relative to the expected future spot rate, unless the authorities allow interest rates to change (Isard, 1995). It may, however, be added that there are other channels (for instance, the signalling channel) through which sterilised intervention may still be effective. Similarly, the interest rate defence of the exchange rate rests on possible deviations from UIP; otherwise, any attempts by the monetary authority to increase interest rates to defend the exchange rate would be offset exactly by expected currency depreciation. Policy-exploitable deviations from UIP are, therefore, a necessary condition for an interest rate defence (Flood and Rose, 2002). From a cross-country perspective, empirical literature generally suppor ts the CIP. As regards the UIP, the literature in general does not support it, though results could vary across currency, time horizon and countries (Isard, 1995; Fama, 1984; Froot and Thaler, 1990; Wadhwani, 1999; Chinn and Meredith, 2002; Bekaert et al., 2002; and Flood and Rose, 2002). The failure of UIP is attributable, inter alia, to time-varying risk premium, deviations from rational expectations (since tests of UIP involve a joint test of efficient market hypothesis and rational expectations), transaction costs, and endogenous monetary policy (Wadhwani, 1999; Kim and Roubini, 2000; and Meredith and Ma, 2002). In the Indian context, empirical evidence covering the period April 1993 to early 1998 finds some support for CIP but not for UIP (Bhoi and Dhal, 1998; and Joshi and Saggar, 1998). Deriving from theoretical and empirical insights from crosscountry studies, Pattnaik, Kapur and Dhal (2003) adopted a rigorous empirical analysis of parity conditions in the Indian context during April 1993 to March 2002. The study reiterated that the overall evidence in favour of market efficiency appears to be inconclusive. While CIP appears to hold on an average, the evidence for UIP comes from the absence of any predictable significant excess foreign exchange market returns. In view of significant ongoing liberalisation of the capital account in the subsequent period, it was attempted to examine afresh the interest parity conditions for India. Accordingly, interest parity conditions for the rupee vis--vis the US dollar using monthly data over the period April 1993 to September 2006 with regard to 3-month forward premia were examined. For interest rate differential, two alternative measures of domestic interest rate (call money rate and 91-day Treasury Bills rate) have been used; for the foreign interest rate, 1-month and 3-month LIBOR were used. The results were more or less in line with previous studies4 . Deviations from UIP could not only be due to presence of time varying risk premium but also due to surges in private capital flows (RBI, 2001). Although non-residents have been increasingly permitted to invest in the Indian markets, restrictions on borrowing and investing by residents in the overseas markets remained for most of the sample period of this study. Moreover, even with regard to non-residents, the major players, viz., the foreign institutional investors (FIIs) are more focused on the equity markets. Furthermore, central bank intervention in the market and administrative measures can also affect market behaviour. All these factors can cause deviations from UIP in the short-horizon, but over time there remains a tendency for the exchange rate movements to be consistent with UIP and stable real exchange rate. The average level of interest rate differentials points the right way in forecasting long-run currency changes, even though the short-run correlation usually points the wrong way in forecasting near-term exchange rate changes (Froot and Thaler, 1990).

The estimated CIP equations are as follows: FR3 = 1.70 + 0.45 ID1 + 0.25 ID1(-1) + 0.17 ID1(-2) (4.8) (6.4) (3.2) (2.5) DW = 0.3 FR3 = 1.08 + 1.08 ID2 (1.7) (6.7) DW = 0.3

2 R = 0.47 2 R = 0.22

where FR3 is 3-month forward premia, ID1 is interest rate differential between the call money rate and the 1-month LIBOR and ID2 is the interest rate differential between the 91-day Treasury Bills rate and the 3-month LIBOR. Figures in parentheses are estimated t-values. The estimated UIP equation is as follows: DEPX = -0.06 - 0.04 FR3 (t-3) (0.4) (1.5)

DW = 1.5

2 R = 0.01

where DEPX is actual exchange rate depreciation under the assumption of rational expectations. Figures in parentheses are estimated t-values.

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Table 8.3: Financial Market Volatility

Rate Apr-1993 to Mar-2007 2 4.30 1.27 2.29 2.57 3.17 3.30 2.77 5.96 4.69 3.93 Apr-1993 to Mar-2000 3 5.38 1.14 1.93 1.56 2.36 2.50 0.99 4.62 5.99 4.51 4.00 685 (32.44) 4.08 Apr-2000 to Mar-2007 4 1.90 1.32 1.46 1.66 1.66 1.99 1.78 1.61 1.91 1.86 1.84 3194 (33.36) 2.53

1 Call money rate Reverse repo rate Treasury Bills rate (91 days) Treasury Bills rate (364 days) Certificates of deposit rate Commercial paper rate Yield on 10-year government securities Exchange rate (Rs./US$) Forward exchange premium (1 month) Forward exchange premium (3 month)

Forward exchange premium 3.73 (6 month) BSE SENSEX (index volatility) 2582 (annualised index (32.94) return volatility) Cross-section volatility* 3.88

Note : 1. Volatility is measured in terms of standard deviation. 2. Data for 10-year government securities yield are available since April 1996, while data for 1-month forward exchange premia are available from June 1995. * : Standard deviation of all of the above interest rates and forward premia.

certificates of deposit, commercial paper and 10-year government bond yield. The benefit of financial markets development percolating to the private sector was also evident from the moderation in spread of commercial paper over the policy rate. The narrowing of the spread between the policy rate and other market rates suggests the increasing efficiency of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. 8.38 Besides correlation measure, more formal and robust approach to market integration analysis entails an investigation of causal relationship among various interest rates. The causal relationship between reverse repo rate and market interest rates, in particular, highlights the importance of monetary transmission in influencing the term structure of interest rates. Empirical analysis of Granger causality Table 8.4: Interest Rate Spread over the Reverse Repo Rate
(Percentage point) Interest Rate Apr-1993 to Mar-2007 2 1.78 3.31 3.99 1.69 2.48 3.42 Apr-1993 to Mar-2000 3 2.98 5.43 6.09 2.90 4.18 6.21 Apr-2000 to Mar-2007 4 0.58 1.19 1.89 0.48 0.79 1.83

management such as interest rates is contingent upon the extent and speed with which changes in the central banks policy rate are transmitted to the spectrum of market interest rates and exchange rate in the economy and onward to the real sector (Mohan, 2007). Deviations between money market rates and the policy interest rate, in particular, have at least two adverse effects. First, they weaken the monetary policy transmission mechanism and introduce an element of uncertainty. Greater the influence the central bank has over interest rate levels, the easier it is for it to manage demand in the economy and attain its objective of low inflation and sustained growth (Petursson, 2001). Second, a large spread entailing a mismatch between inter-bank rates and the central banks policy rate could lead to inefficiencies in the financial intermediation process. In the Indian context, there has been convergence among market segments, with a significant decline in the spread of market interest rates over the reverse repo rate (Table 8.4). The spread was the lowest for the inter-bank call money rate followed by rates on Treasury Bills, 299

1 Call Money Rate Certificates of Deposit Rate Commercial Paper Rate 91-day Treasury Bills Rate 364-day Treasury Bills Rate 10-year Yield on Government Securities

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reveals certain important features of transmission mechanism in the Indian context 5 . First, lags associated with the transmission of policy impulses to market rates are aligned with the term structure of instruments; short-term rates exhibit relatively lower lags than medium and longer maturity instruments to the changes in policy rates. Second, the reverse repo rate has uni-directional causal effect on short-end of the financial market, including call money rate and 91-day Treasury Bills rate. In the medium-to-longer term horizon, 10-year Government bond yield has a bi-directional causal association with the reverse repo rate. This could be attributed to the feedback between policies and markets, since at the longer end, financial markets contain useful information about investment activity and economic agents expectations about inflation and growth prospects. Dynamics of Market Inter-linkages 8.39 As alluded to earlier, market integration could be attributable to liquidity, term structure, credit market conditions, exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals. Empirical results reveal that the market integration process is influenced by liquidity, safety and risk, external market developments, private sector growth, credit requirements and macroeconomic developments such as growth and 6 inflation outlook implied by the long-term bond yield . First, short-term liquidity impact on the inter-bank call money rate is mainly influenced by foreign exchange market developments reflected in the movement of forward exchange rate and fiscal policy induced effect at the short-end of the market through changes in the benchmark 91-day Treasury Bills rate. Second, the rate on 91-day Treasur y Bills is influenced by the 10-year government securities yield and private sector credit condition through changes in the commercial paper rate, while foreign exchange market development and liquidity exert some influence in the shor t-run. Third, forward exchange premia is driven by arbitrage condition, with the inter-bank call money market being the key

driver, though some modest impact was due to developments in the private sector (commercial paper) and long-ter m fundamentals (10-year government bond yield). Four th, for the private sector, commercial paper is driven by long-term government securities yield in the medium to longer term horizon, while liquidity, risk premium and foreign exchange market condition have modest impact in the shor t-r un. Fifth, the commercial paper representing developments in productive activities and credit requirements by the private sector has a substantially larger impact than liquidity, foreign exchange market and risk premium. Moreover, an extension of the above multivariate vector autoregression(VAR) model to a structural representation reveals that financial market integration in the medium to longer term horizon is induced by the long-term yield on government securities and the commercial p a p e r r a t e, a t t r i bu t a bl e t o m a c r o e c o n o m i c developments such as medium-ter m inflation outlook and real sector developments in the private sector. 8.40 To sum up, integration among various market segments has grown, especially in the recent period. This was reflected in an increase in the depth of the markets and higher correlation among interest rates in various market segments. Growing integration among various financial market segments was accompanied by lower volatility of interest rates. The narrowing of the interest rate spread over the reverse repo rate reflects an improvement in the monetary policy transmission channel and greater financial market integration. Financial market integration reflects a dynamic interaction among var ious parameters such as liquidity, safety and risk, foreign exchange market development, private sector activity, and macroeconomic fundamentals. Alternatively, financial integration exhibits interaction among financial intermediaries, the Government, the private sector and the external sector. In respect of specific market segments, it was found that the reverse repo rate has one-way causal effect with the short-end of

Granger causality tests were conducted for the period April 1993 to September 2006 by estimating a vector error correction model (VEC) by taking the following variables: reverse repo rate, 91-day Treasury Bills rate, 364-day Treasury Bills rate and 10-year Government securities yield. The order of the VAR model was chosen to be two months lag based on the Schwarz Criterion. An unrestricted vector auto-regression model was estimated to analyse financial market inter-linkages in terms of interaction among five variables such as the inter-bank call money rate, the 91-day Treasury Bills rate, the three-month forward premia, the commercial paper rate and the 10-year government bond yield. From an alternative perspective, such multivariate dynamics demonstrate the underlying financial and real linkages arising from interaction among intermediaries, the Government, the external sector, the private sector and macroeconomic developments. The model was estimated using monthly data for the period April 1993 to September 2006. The order of the VAR was found to be 9-month lag, based on the Likelihood Ratio test. The forecast error variance decomposition analysis of the VAR model was used for explaining the variation of one variable in terms of variation in other variables in the system.

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the financial markets, i.e., money market, while with the 10-year government bond yield, a two-way causal relation exists, implying a feedback between policy and markets at the longer end. In the foreign exchange market, the PPP doctrine has been held in the absence of any sustained appreciation/depreciation of the REER. The equity market has a relatively low interaction with other market segments, which is reflected in the existence of a large equity risk premium. IV. INDIAS INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL INTEGRATION 8.41 Development of financial markets is required for the purpose of not only realising the hidden saving potential and effective monetary policy, but also for expanding the economys role and participation in the process of globalisation and regional integration. With growing openness, global factors come to play a greater role in domestic policy formulation, leading to greater financial market integration (Reddy, 2006b). With growing financial globalisation, it is important for emerging market economies such as India to develop financial markets to manage the risks associated with large capital flows. In a globalised world, the importance of a strong and well-regulated financial sector can hardly be overemphasised to deal with capital flows that can be very large and could reverse very quickly. The Report of the Committee on Fuller Capital Account Conver tibility, 2006 (Chairman: Shri S.S. Tarapore) observed that in order to make a move towards the fuller capital account convertibility, it needs to be ensured that different market segments are not only well-developed but also that they are well-integrated. Global and Regional Trends 8.42 Globalisation has manifested itself in a new form of trade and financial inter-dependence among industr ial, developing and emerging mar ket economies. Developing and emerging economies, which earlier relied mainly on primary commodity exports, have emerged as the leading countries in manufacturing and services trade. Though in absolute terms, industrial countries continue to account for the bulk of global trade, their share has declined in recent years, leading to a rise in the share of developing and emerging market economies led by China and countries in the East and South East Asia. The spreading out of the production process across countries, with companies increasingly finding it profitable to allocate different links of the value chain across a range of countries, has been accompanied 301

by increased market integration. Thus, in terms of trade openness, developing and emerging market economies surpassed advanced economies (Table 8.5). Across income groups, trade openness of low and middle-income countries has increased at a faster rate than high-income countries. 8.43 The major trend in the global economy today alongside globalisation is growing regionalisation. In this context, the issue whether the process of globalisation and the growing regionalism complement each other or the growing regionalism is detrimental to globalisation has become a subject of intense discussion for policy makers and academics. Some believe that globalisation is nothing but a greater integration of economies nationally, regionally and worldwide. For others, since the regional integration process remains concentrated exclusively in certain countries, doubts arise whether such exclusivity throws up building blocks or stumbling blocks on the road to global economic integration. Despite these alter native perspectives, the regionalisation process has accelerated since the mid1980s with varying features and scale in different regions. According to the World Trade Organisation (WTO), by March 2007, there were 194 regional trade arrangements as compared with only 24 agreements in 1986 and 66 agreements in 1996. According to the World Investment Report, 2006 of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, international investment agreements (IIAs) have increased substantially. At the global level, total number of IIAs was close to 5,500 at the end of 2005, comprising 2,495 bilateral investment treaties (BITs), 2,758 double taxation treaties (DTTs) and 232 other international agreements that contain investment provisions. The total number of BITs among developing countries increased sharply from 42 in 1990 to 644 by the end of 2005, while the number of Table 8.5: Global Trade Openness
(Exports plus Imports as percent of GDP) Category 1 World Advanced Economies Developing and Emerging Economies Low Income Economies Middle Income Economies High Income Economies 1980s 1990s 2000s 2 37.1 38.3 33.6 22.9 35.4 38.1 3 41.4 40.5 46.2 33.6 49.4 40.0 4 52.7 49.3 65.0 43.0 61.1 46.1 2006 5 60.8 56.5 73.4 50.0 * 67.0 * 45.2 #

* : Data for 2004. # : Data for 2003. Source : World Economic Outlook, April 2007, IMF and World Development Indicators, 2006, World Bank.

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DTTs rose from 105 to 399, and other IIAs from 17 to 86 during the same period. Asian countries are particularly engaged as parties to approximately 40 per cent of all BITs, 35 per cent of DTTs and 39 per cent of other IIAs. 8.44 The East and South East Asian economies, in particular, have achieved significant integration due to liberalisation of foreign trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) regimes within the frameworks of GATT/WTO and several bilateral regional cooperation agreements. The changing production structure along with the various policy measures in the form of tariff reductions and liberalisation of investment norms have played an important role in improving the trade among the regions (Table 8.6). The resulting expansion of trade and FDI has become the engine of economic growth and development in the region. 8.45 In the sphere of finance, the traditional postulate that the capital flows from the capital surplus developed countries to the capital scarce developing countries, seems to have been disproved in recent years (Reddy, 2006b). Today, the world is confronted with the puzzle of capital flowing uphill that is, from the developing to the developed countries (Prasad et al., 2006). The worlds largest economy, the United States, currently runs a current account deficit, financed to a substantial extent by surplus savings or capital exports from the developing and emerging market economies (Table 8.7). With rising incomes and increasingly open policies, developing and emerging mar ket economies have become a significant source of foreign direct investment, bank lending and official development assistance (ODA) to other developing countries. 8.46 Trade and financial openness share more than a complementary relationship. In absolute terms, the level of integration of different country groups into global financial markets is measured as Table 8.6: Intra-regional Trade Share in Asia
(Per cent) Reporter/Partner 1 Asia East Asia ASEAN+3 Southeast Asia ASEAN SAARC South Asia 1990 2 47.0 30.2 29.4 18.8 18.8 2.7 2.1 1995 3 54.9 37.1 37.6 24.0 24.0 3.9 3.8 2000 4 54.8 38.1 37.3 24.7 24.7 3.9 3.6 2005 5 58.7 42.6 39.2 28.1 28.1 4.8 4.7

Table 8.7: Global Current Account Balance

(US $ billion) Period/Year World Advanced United Economies States 3 -41 -4 -268 -213 -229 -221 -255 -473 -563 4 -78 -122 -415 -389 -472 -528 -665 -792 -857 Developing & Emerging Economies 5 -27 -81 86 39 77 148 213 428 544 China

1 1980s 1990s 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

2 -68 -85 -182 -174 -152 -73 -43 -45 -19

6 -1 12 21 17 35 46 69 161 239 *

* : IMF Staff estimate. Source :World Economic Outlook, Online Database, April 2007, IMF.

the sum of gross international financial assets and liabilities (Prasad et al., 2006). While trade openness at global level increased from an average of 37 per cent of GDP during the 1980s to 61 per cent of GDP in 2006, financial openness, measured by gross foreign assets and liabilities as per cent to GDP, witnessed almost a four-fold increase from 68 per cent in the early 1980s to 250 per cent during 200004. Though the level of integration into global financial markets is clearly the largest for developed countr ies, emerging mar ket economies have accounted for the bulk of integration experienced by the developing economies block (Table 8.8). 8.47 Global capital flows to developing and emerging market economies have seen a boom-bust cyclical Table 8.8: Gross Foreign Assets and Liabilities
(US $ trillion) Period Global Industrial Economies 3 6.1 (74.5) 13.5 (107.7) 24.0 (127.1) 42.1 (183.0) 73.8 (280.5) Developing and Emerging Economies 4 1.9 (52.8) 2.9 (68.4) 5.1 (95.9) 8.7 (126.9) 12.2 (150.6) Emerging Asia 5 0.5 (53.7) 1.2 (102.2) 2.6 (141.6) 4.5 (162.7) 6.2 (179.3)

1 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04

2 7.9 (67.5) 16.4 (97.7) 29.0 (120.2) 50.7 (170.1) 86.0 (250.0)

Source : Asia Regional Integration Centre, ADB.

Note : Figures in brackets represent percentage to GDP. Source : Lane and Ferretti (2006), On-line Database, IMF.

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pattern, typically reflecting a part of a larger process of development of the global economy (Chart VIII.9). Lending and other forms of capital flows have tended to surge when technological changes improve communications, growth is buoyant, trade is expanding, financial innovation is rapid and the political climate is supportive (World Bank, 2000). The underlying surge in capital flows to developing and emerging market economies in recent years is led by the strong demand for emerging market debt and equities, supported by sharp improvement in fundamentals in many EMEs and investors search for higher yields in an environment where long-term interest rates remain low in major industrial countries (World Bank, 2006). 8.48 A key feature of global financial integration during the past three decades is the shift in the composition of capital flows to developing and emerging market economies. First, private sector flows have outpaced official flows due to increasing liberalisation. Second, a shift has occurred in terms of components, from the dominance of debt flows in the 1970s and the 1980s to foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio flows since the 1990s (Table 8.9). FDI flows have been determined by several push and pull factors, including strong global growth, soft interest rates in home countr ies, a general improvement in emerging market economies risks, greater business and consumer confidence, rising cor porate profitability, large scale cor porate restructuring, sharp recovery of asset prices and rising commodity prices. Trade and FDI openness has encouraged domestic institutional and governance

Table 8.9: Capital Flows to Developing and Emerging Economies

(Per cent to total) Period 1 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000-06 Note FDI 2 14.9 16.4 41.5 62.9 Portfolio 3 0.0 0.3 7.0 8.1 Debt 4 71.8 65.7 37.4 16.8 Grants 5 13.3 17.6 14.2 12.3

: 1. Data are period averages. 2. Based on data on net capital flows. Source : Global Development Finance 2006, World Bank.

reforms promoting trade and investment further. The hope of better risk sharing, more efficient allocation of capital, more productive investment and ultimately higher standards of living for all have also propelled the drive for stronger regional connections of financial systems across the world. In terms of overall financial flows, Asia has benefited from the surge in net capital flows to emerging markets in recent years. 8.49 In any approach to the policies relating to the financial integration, it may be useful to consider both quantitative and qualitative factors in such flows (Reddy, 2003). An important parameter of quality of capital flows relates to volatility of such flows. In this regard, cross-country evidence on volatility of capital flows over the period 1985-2004 shows that FDI inflows to developing and emerging economies have been relatively stable as compared with other types of capital flows (Table 8.10). For instance, portfolio flows exhibited sharp variations, declining from the peak of US $ 30 billion on an average during the 199397 to US $ 7 billion during 1998-2002, following a series of crises in the South East Asia, the Latin America, Russia, Argentina and Turkey. Indian Context 8.50 As a result of policy measures undertaken since the early 1990s, Indias trade and financial integration has grown with the global economy. This is evident from the significant increase in various indicators of openness since the onset of reforms (Table 8.11). In terms of overall trade openness during the 1990s, the Indian economy was relatively less dependent on external demand as compared with select emerging market economies. However, Indias trade openness was higher than some of the advanced economies, including the US. 8.51 The increasing openness of the Indian economy to the external sector in recent years 303

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Table 8.10: Volatility of Capital Flows (1985-2004)

Category 1 All Countries Mean Median Advanced economies Mean Median Emerging markets Mean Median Other Developing Mean Median Note 0.89 0.77 0.65 0.70 0.80 0.70 0.87 0.77 0.75 0.76 1.07 1.00 0.85 0.67 0.71 0.66 0.92 0.87 0.99 0.98 0.64 0.64 0.84 0.77 0.85 0.77 0.98 0.98 0.76 0.66 0.80 0.75 FDI 2 Equity 3 Debt 4 FDI and Equity 5

: Volatility is measured by co-efficient of variation based on data for the period 1985-2004. Source : Kose et al., 2006.

characterises its expanding economic relationships with the rest of Asia. In recent years, the Asian economies are emerging as major trading partners of India. Emerging Asian economies including China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand accounted for a significant 24.1 per cent share in Indias total non-oil exports in 2005-06 (9.7 per cent in 1990-91) and 27.8 per cent of Indias non-oil imports (11.5 per cent in Table 8.11: Select Indicators of India's Openness
(Per cent to GDP) Year Merchandise Trade* 2 14.6 21.5 22.5 21.1 23.3 24.3 29.3 32.5 Trade in Goods and Services# 3 17.2 25.7 29.2 27.6 30.7 35.5 40.4 44.8 Gross Capital Transactions @ 4 12.1 12.5 21.6 16.3 16.1 22.4 24.2 32.4

1990-91). Since 2004-05, China has emerged as the third major export destination for India after the US and the UAE. China has now become the largest source of imports for India, relegating the US to the second position. Indias exports to China surged to 7.4 per cent of Indias total non-oil exports (0.3 per cent in 1991-92). Similarly, Indias imports from China accounted for 10.3 per cent of Indias total non-oil imports, a sharp increase from 0.2 per cent in 199192. This reflects growing trade relations between the two countries. A similar trend was noticeable vis-vis the ASEAN-5 (Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines). In recognition of the growing importance of Asian countries in Indias foreign trade, a series of nominal and real effective exchange rate indices released by the Reserve Bank were revised a couple of years ago to include Chinese renminbi and Hong Kong dollar in the weighting scheme. With Japan already a part of the indices, the representation of Asian economies has increased to three in the six-country real effective exchange rate index. There has been an ongoing transformation in the composition of production and trade as the comparative advantage of many Asian economies continues to change in an environment of growing regional co-operation (Box VIII.5). In par ticular, economies with relatively high wage costs are shifting towards higher value-added products, including services. 8.52 In tandem with trade openness, Indias capital account has witnessed a structural transformation since the early 1990s, with a shift in the composition from official flows to market-oriented private sector flows (Table 8.12). After independence, during the first three decades, trade balance was financed by capital account balance comprising mainly the official flows. During the 1980s, the dependence on official flows moderated sharply with private debt flows in the form of external commercial borrowing and non-resident Indian (NRI) deposits emerging as the key components of the capital account. 8.53 Following the shift in emphasis from debt to non-debt flows in the reform period, foreign investment comprising direct investment and portfolio flows emerged as predominant component of capital account. Indias FDI openness, as measured by FDI stock to GDP ratio, increased ten-fold from 0.5 per cent in 1990 to 5.8 per cent in 2005. However, this is still much lower than other emerging countries in Asia, including China (Table 8.13). 8.54 India has emerged as a major destination for global portfolio equity flows since the late 1990s. On an average, Indias share was 24 per cent of total 304

1 1990-91 1995-96 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 *

: Merchandise exports plus imports as percentage to GDP at current market prices. # : Exports of goods and services plus imports of goods and services as percentage to GDP at current market prices. @ : Capital account receipts plus payments as percentage to GDP at current market prices. Source : Reserve Bank of India.

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Box VIII.5 Initiatives on Regional Integration in Asia

After the South East Asian crisis of 1997, the geographic scope of cooperation initiatives is expanding across sub-regions of Asia. East Asian economies have embarked on various initiatives for regional monetary and financial cooperation. The major initiatives for regional cooperation in Asia include ASEAN+3, Chiang Mai Initiative, Executives Meeting of East Asia- Pacific Central Banks (EMEAP), Asian Bond Market Initiative and Asian Bond Fund. The countries of ASEAN Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam and India have entered into a Framework Agreement on comprehensive economic cooperation. The ASEAN has embarked on a process to expand economic cooperation with its neighbours in the north, namely China, Japan and South Korea (ASEAN+3). As far as Indias association with ASEAN community is concerned, currently India is not a full-fledged part of the ASEAN network but holds a regular summit with the ASEAN. However, in the years ahead, it is envisaged that ASEAN+3+3 network1 would help India to share and cooperate on various financial issues as the present network of ASEAN+3 has been consistently engaging in economic policy dialogue of unprecedented scope and depth. Another instance of central banking cooperation in Asia exists in the form of reciprocal currency or swap arrangements under the Chiang Mai Initiative2 . The ASEAN Swap Arrangement (ASA) was created primarily to provide liquidity support to countries experiencing balance of payments difficulties. The Finance Ministers of ASEAN+3 announced this initiative in May 2000 with the intention to cooperate in four major areas, viz., monitoring capital flows, regional surveillance, swap networks and training personnel. A more explicit central banking cooperation has been existing in the form of EMEAP since 19913. The ongoing work of EMEAP seeks to further strengthen policy analysis and advice within the region and encourage co-operation with respect to operational and institutional central banking issues. EMEAP central banks have actively coordinated on issues relating to financial markets, banking supervision and payment and settlement systems. The Asian Bond Fund (ABF) initiative of the EMEAP Group has been one of the major initiatives aimed at broadening and deepening the domestic and regional bond markets in Asia. The initiative has been in the form of ABF1 and ABF2. In the near term, the ABF2 Initiative is expected to help raise investor awareness and interest in Asian bonds by
1 2

providing innovative, low-cost and efficient products in the form of passively managed bond funds. More and more similar kinds of index-driven private bond funds are rapidly emerging in Asia. At present, India does not contribute in the ABF. The informal meeting organised by Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD) is, however, attended by participant central banks including India, to discuss promotion of supply of Asian Bonds. The Government of India has given a commitment on participation in the ABF2 to the tune of US$ 1 billion. SEANZA and SEACEN are the oldest initiatives in central bank cooperation in Asia. The SEANZA, formed in 1956, promotes cooperation among central banks by conducting intensive training courses for higher central banking executive positions with the objective to build up knowledge of central banking and foster technical cooperation among central banks in the SEANZA region. The SEACEN provides a forum for member central bank governors to be familiar with each other and to gain deeper understanding of the economic conditions of the individual SEACEN countries. It initiates and facilitates co-operation in research and training relating to the policy and operational aspects of central banking, i.e., monetary policy, banking supervision and payments and settlement systems. Asian Clearing Union (ACU), an arrangement of central banking cooperation, is successfully functioning since 1974 for multilateral settlement of payments for promoting trade and monetary cooperation among the member countries5. Since 1989, the ACU has also included a currency swap arrangement among its operational objectives. The SAARCFINANCE, established in September 1998 is a regional network of the SAARC Central Bank Governors and Finance Secretaries which aims at strengthening the SAARC with specific emphasis on international finance and monetary issues6. India has been very actively participating in SAARCFINANCE activities. The clearest evidence of Asian countries desire to forge closer economic relationships is the proliferation of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). By 2006, there were more than 30 FTAs under negotiation in East Asia alone. Increasingly, these agreements are also deeper, extending to areas beyond just tariff reduction. An example is the recently signed IndiaSingapore comprehensive economic cooperation agreement, which covers not only trade in goods, but also services, investments and cooperation in technology, education, air services and human resources.
4

India, Australia and New Zealand are included in ASEAN+3+3. Under this Initiative, the total resources available are currently estimated to be around US$ 75 billion (up from less than US$ 40 billion in May 2005), reflecting the renegotiation of most Bilateral Swap Agreements (BSAs). Members are the central banks of Australia, China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. The SEANZA refers to South East Asia, New Zealand and Australia. The SEACEN refers to South East Asia Central Banks. At present, its membership includes eight members including India, Islamic Republic of Iran, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka being the founder members (Myanmar, Bangladesh and Bhutan joined later). SAARCFINANCE members are India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives and Nepal. It is a permanent body, which got formal recognition of SAARC at the 11th SAARC Summit, held in Kathmandu, Nepal in January 2002.

3 4 5

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Table 8.12: Indias Trade and Capital Accounts

(US $ million) Period Trade Balance Current Account Balance 3 Capital Account Balance 4 (Annual Average) 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2003-06 -489 -938 -1,303 -7,363 -10,356 -22,331 -33,087 -265 -831 -29 -4,414 -4,368 1,584 809 126 845 615 3,932 7,822 16,290 23,402 106 852 662 1,487 1,515 -71 346 29 48 37 349 3,390 12,010 17,036 0 0 114 1,044 1,778 1,080 1,820 0 0 85 1,135 1,328 2,253 1,822 External Assistance 5 Major Components of Capital Account Foreign Investment 6 Commercial Borrowing 7 NRI Deposits

Source: Reserve Bank of India.

portfolio flows to all developing countries during 19992005 (Chart VIII.10). The geographical sources of portfolio investment inflows show a countrys global and regional financial linkages. The IMF Coordinated Portfolio Investments database 2005 showed that the major source of Indias portfolio investment stock was the US (33.4 per cent), followed by Mauritius (32.6 per cent), Luxembourg (9.3 per cent), the UK (8.6 per cent), Spain (3.2 per cent) and Singapore (2.8 per cent). 8.55 Financial market integration has assumed added significance in the recent period as capital has become more mobile across countries with reduction in capital controls and improvement in technological infrastructure. This is reflected in increasing comovements in interest rates, bond yields and stock Table 8.13: FDI Openness : Select Countries
(Per cent to GDP) Country 1 China Hong Kong India Indonesia Korea Malaysia Pakistan Philippines Singapore Sri Lanka Thailand Note 1990 2 5.4 59.4 0.5 7.7 2.0 23.4 3.6 7.4 82.6 8.5 9.7 1997 3 17.1 143.6 2.5 14.6 3.0 42.3 14.1 10.2 78.4 12.2 8.8 2003 4 16.2 239.2 5.2 5.0 9.0 40.4 8.7 15.2 160.2 11.2 33.3 2004 5 14.9 275.2 5.7 7.0 9.2 37.2 8.8 14.9 156.2 11.3 32.9 2005 6 14.3 299.9 5.8 7.7 8.0 36.5 8.8 14.4 158.6 10.4 33.5

indices. The bond yield differential in Asia has narrowed down in an environment of improved macroeconomic fundamentals and lower inflation in these economies. Evidence from pr ice-based measures of financial integration suggests increasing financial markets integration in Asia. 8.56 Stock markets in Emerging Asia show a high degree of correlation with several countries in the region, barring China (Table 8.14). In the region, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore are the main drivers. The Indian stock market showed high correlation with Asian stock markets, barring China and Korea. Moreover, correlation of Indias stock market with Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore was

: FDI openness is measured in terms of FDI stock as percentage of GDP Source : On-line FDI Database, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

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Table 8.14: Regional Stock Market Return Correlation

Country 1 China Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand China 2 1.00 0.48 0.46 0.26 0.41 -0.03 0.26 0.26 0.30 0.53 Hong Kong 3 1.00 0.93 0.87 0.86 0.44 0.65 0.87 0.93 0.64 India 4 Indonesia 5 Japan 6 Korea 7 Malaysia 8 Philippines 9 Singapore 10 Thailand 11

1.00 0.80 0.86 0.45 0.56 0.80 0.85 0.65

1.00 0.72 0.57 0.81 0.86 0.91 0.61

1.00 0.60 0.57 0.78 0.85 0.52

1.00 0.70 0.43 0.65 0.36

1.00 0.58 0.74 0.66

1.00 0.92 0.44

1.00 0.59

1.00

Note : Based on monthly data for the period 2003-2005. Source : Regional Integration Database, Asian Development Bank.

higher than with some of the other Asian countries including, China, Korea, Malaysia and Thailand. 8.57 The international linkage of Indias stock market has been enhanced with listing of Indian companies in some of major stock exchanges. In the US NASDAQ, 12 major Indian companies are listed. These companies account for about 20 per cent weight in the BSE Sensex. In the London Stock Exchange, 50 companies including eight major companies in the BSE Sensex and the others in BSE 200 are listed. Empirical evidence suggests that movements in the BSE Sensex are positively correlated with the indices in the US, the UK. In a multivariate framework, co-integration analysis involving the BSE Sensex, the major stock

markets such as the US, the UK and Japan and regional stocks suggested the existence of opportunities for portfolio diversification by investors, particularly, foreign investors operating in the regional as well as global markets7. 8.58 In general, money and bond market segments in Asia showed lower degree of correlation as compared with stock markets. Within countries, bond and money market correlation was negative in many countries, implying that these markets remain segmented in the region (Tables 8.15 and 8.16). The Indian money market showed high correlation with Indonesia, but modest correlation with Hong Kong, Korea and Thailand. Indias money market correlation

Table 8.15: Regional Money Market Correlation

Country 1 China Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand China 2 1.00 -0.43 -0.24 -0.28 0.02 0.01 -0.15 -0.13 -0.30 -0.44 Hong Kong 3 1.00 0.55 0.47 0.10 -0.08 0.18 -0.28 0.80 0.90 India 4 Indonesia 5 Japan 6 Korea 7 Malaysia 8 Philippines 9 Singapore 10 Thailand 11

1.00 0.81 -0.01 0.50 0.41 -0.46 0.26 0.50

1.00 -0.04 0.77 0.47 -0.12 0.06 0.38

1.00 -0.22 0.09 0.07 0.29 0.27

1.00 0.39 0.04 -0.49 -0.22

1.00 -0.10 -0.02 0.13

1.00 -0.31 -0.24

1.00 0.92

1.00

Note : Based on monthly data for the period 2003-2005. Money market rates refer to inter-bank segment. Source : Regional Integration Database, Asian Development Bank.

An empirical exercise was carried out using Johansen's co-integration analysis, which showed that stock indices could be integrated within the vector error correction model framework involving five-day lag order. In the bi-variate framework, stock indices could be positively correlated. In the multivariate framework, using daily data during January 2000-September 2006, it was found that the cointegrating vector could be characterised with opposite sign of the coefficients of global and regional stock indices.

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Table 8.16: Regional Bond Market Correlation

Country 1 Hong Kong India Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Hong Kong 2 1.00 -0.49 0.43 0.30 0.59 -0.05 -0.48 0.66 0.09 India 3 Indonesia 4 Japan 5 Korea 6 Malaysia 7 Philippines 8 Singapore 9 Thailand 10

1.00 0.17 -0.04 -0.33 -0.30 0.15 -0.73 0.39

1.00 0.21 0.57 -0.38 -0.48 0.11 0.55

1.00 -0.12 0.56 0.22 0.32 0.53

1.00 -0.34 -0.75 0.37 0.19

1.00 0.53 0.25 0.18

1.00 -0.31 0.03

1.00 -0.04

1.00

Note : Based on monthly data for the period 2003-2005. Bond market rates are yields for domestic 10-year sovereign bonds. Source : Regional Integration Database, Asian Development Bank.

with Singapore was positive but low, while it remained near zero with Japan and negative with the Philippines and China. The integration of Indias money and bond markets with Asian countries, in the absence of flows across markets, could be attributable, inter alia, to relative strength of Indias financial markets, common participation of foreign institutional investors in the region, emergence of several dedicated funds for investment in India floated by international investors in the Asian region and the existence of offshore market for non-deliverable forwards, especially in Japan and some of the emerging Asian economies. 8.59 To sum up, past two decades have witnessed rapid increase in the pace of globalisation, led by growing participation of developing and emerging economies. Financial integration has outpaced trade integration. Cross-border flows of real and financial capital have increased sharply, reflecting the decline in the degree of home bias in capital markets. Regional integration in Asia has improved significantly due to liberalisation measures, formation of several regional cooperation agreements and stronger economic activity in the region. The sharp increase in intra-regional trade indicates that regional economies are better integrated. Regional financial integration is manifested in the price co-movements in the stock, the money and the bond markets. Stock markets in the Asian region are better correlated than the bond and the money markets. 8.60 Indias integration with the world economy has increased significantly in terms of trade openness and financial integration. Tariff liberalisation and removal of non-tariff barriers have contributed to Indias trade integration at global and regional levels. Indias capital account has witnessed a structural transformation during the reform period with cross-border non-debt 308

creating private capital flows, emerging as a major component. India is now a major destination for global portfolio equity flows suggesting growing confidence of foreign investors in the Indian economy and financial markets. 8.61 At the regional level, Indias trade links with Asia are growing at a rapid pace, spurred by trade links with China and South-East Asian countries. Also, Indias financial integration with the Asian region has occurred through the linkage of regional stock markets and through modest correlation of bond and money markets. V. THE WAY FORWARD 8.62 Integrated financial markets are a key element in the transmission process and hence for the smooth conduct of monetary policy. Financial integration also leads to a better diversification of risks and makes a positive contribution to financial stability by improving the capacity of economies to absorb shocks. On the other hand, fully integrated financial markets also pave the way for shocks to propagate more quickly among market participants, which could necessitate appropriate safeguards. To mitigate the risks and maximise benefits from financial integration, it is imperative that the financial markets are developed fur ther. Enhanced co-operation among various regulatory authorities is also important for ensuring effective corrective action in an increasingly integrated environment. Further, it is necessary to establish further linkages amongst the various components of financial infrastructure the trading, payment, clearing, settlement and custodian systems. 8.63 As inter national exper ience suggests, integration of the four major segments of the financial

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mar ket in India, viz., the money, the foreign exchange, the government securities and the credit market segments depends on the conditions such as (i) the ability of market participants to buy and sell (including shor t-sale) a wide array of cash instruments, subject to applicable restrictions such as those required under mandated capital charge; (ii) the ability of market participants to lend and borrow funds as also securities; (iii) the ability of market participants to trade in derivative instruments in foreign exchange, interest rate and credit; and (iv) the ability of market participants to arbitrage between cash and derivatives instruments. Developments in these areas will have to be calibrated with those in overall mar ket development, institutional sophistication, evolving needs of the real economy and capacity of market participants. Furthermore, for emergence of an integrated yield curve to serve as a benchmark for pricing of all cash and derivative instruments, it is essential that, apar t from the government securities market, there should be (a) a term money market; (b) an interest rate futures market; and (c) an interest rate swap market. 8.64 Financial markets in India have come a long way and are getting increasingly integrated domestically and globally. Reform measures in terms of free pricing, removal of barriers to flows and broad-based participation have yielded results in terms of fairly high degree of integration of the money market, the government securities market and the foreign exchange market, although in var ying degrees. The money mar ket and the foreign exchange market are reasonably well integrated, which is reflected in the high correlation coefficients between various money market rates and forward premia. The inter-linkage between the domestic money and international markets has also increased as is reflected in the increasing impor tance of interest rate differentials in the determination of forward premia. In general, the interest rate differential between the domestic money and international markets motivates market participants to shift funds between the markets. Thus, interest arbitrage links the domestic and international money markets and the forward markets. 8.65 The domestic credit market is also getting increasingly integrated with the international capital market as large and creditworthy borrowers have been raising large resources by way of external commercial borrowings. Such cor porates are, therefore, less constrained by domestic credit conditions. Raising of resources by banks, the major 309

players in the credit market, by way of external commercial borrowings, albeit within limits, has also integrated the domestic and international credit markets. The money market and the government securities market are also integrated as changes in money market rates are quickly transmitted to government securities yields. The linkage between the money market and the credit market also exists even as some stickiness has been observed in the lending interest rate structure. The inter-linkages between the credit market and the bond market are also growing through asset securitisation by banks. However, the inter-linkages between the equity market on the one hand, and the money, the foreign exchange and the government securities markets on the other, are still weak. The term money market and the private corporate debt market are missing links in the Indian financial markets. There is not much activity in the public issue segment of the corporate debt mar ket, despite availability of good infrastr ucture, a vibrant equity mar ket and a reasonably developed government securities market. In the corporate debt market, the issuers prefer the pr ivate placement segment, which lacks transparency and deprives the retail investor from participating in the debt market. While the need is to further deepen and widen the various segments, which would facilitate better inter-linkages among them, some specific measures that could strengthen the integration process among various market segments are detailed below. Term Money Market 8.66 A developed term money market is necessary for the development of a money market yield curve. This, in turn, would facilitate the development of the derivative market and the integration of the foreign exchange market and the domestic currency market. Given the critical role the term money market can play in the development of other segments, concerted efforts need to be made to develop the term money market in India. Domestic Institutional Investors 8.67 Although integration of the equity market with other segments has to emerge from the market oriented process, the need is felt to enhance the role of various domestic institutional investors such as banks, pension and provident funds in the equity market, subject to certain prudential limits as detailed in Chapter VII. This would help in facilitating better

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inter-linkages of the equity mar ket with other segments, apar t from developing domestic institutional investors as a counterweight to FIIs. Promoting Secondary Markets for various Instruments. 8.68 For effective financial market integration, it is essential that there exist secondary segments for trading of various instruments to provide liquidity and enable efficient r isk pricing in var ious market segments. The secondary segment is nearly absent for financial instruments such as certificates of deposit (CDs), commercial paper (CP) and corporate bonds. For instance, CDs are issued by banks during periods of tight liquidity at relatively higher interest rates (as compared with term deposits). Due to higher interest rate on CDs, subscribers find it profitable to hold CDs till maturity. As a result, the secondary market for CDs has been slow to develop. Similarly, the market for CP is driven by the demand for this instrument mainly by mutual funds whose assets under management have increased manifold in recent years. The price of CP usually ranges between some representative money market rate and the scheduled commercial banks lending rate, representing the opportunity cost of funds. Mutual funds hold CP till maturity, leading to a subdued secondary segment for such instruments. In most international markets, the CP is issued on a shortterm basis with a rollover facility. This facility, however, is not allowed in the Indian CP market. The secondary market turnover for non-government corporate debt securities has remained insignificant. For instance, the secondary market turnover for nongovernment corporate debt securities accounted for about two per cent of total turnover for the debt market in the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. Concerted efforts, therefore, need to be made to develop the secondary markets, wherever they do not exist. The need is to widen the investor base so that divergent views emerge, which would help in creating liquid secondary markets. The need is also felt to incentivise market participants to acquire skills so that they are able to take a forward looking view of emerging macroeconomic scenario and are, thus, encouraged to trade. Private Corporate Debt Market 8.69 Though corporate bond yields exhibit comovement with yields on benchmark government securities, empirical evidence suppor ts market imperfection affecting price development in the 310

cor porate bond segment, which is the least transparent and illiquid segment of the financial market. As mentioned earlier, the corporate bond market also lacks a secondary segment. The issues relating to the development of the corporate bond market have been addressed comprehensively by the High Level Committee on Corporate Bond Market and Securitisation (Chairman: Dr. R. H. Patil). In order to develop and integrate the corporate bond market with other markets, corporate bonds have to become really tradable instruments. For this purpose, an elevated and significant level of reforms will be needed on the basis of recommendations of the High Level Committee and other measures as detailed in Chapter VII. Key Role of Government Securities Market in Financial Market Integration 8.70 The government securities market holds the key to better integrated financial markets. Interest rates in government securities serve as a risk free benchmark for the purpose of asset valuation in other markets. Thus, well-functioning and deep government securities market is a necessar y condition for integration of financial markets. In the government securities market, turnover in the secondary segment has declined in the recent period. While this could be termed as a cyclical development reflecting banks por tfolio rebalancing through reduction of SLR holdings to stipulated levels in an environment of high credit demand and rising interest rates, it is critical to recognise that the persistence of such a trend could pose risks to the price discover y process and integration of financial markets. Efforts to sustain the turnover in this segment warrant the formulation of a clear strategy. Turnover in this segment is dominated by Central Government securities. Initiatives to promote trading in other securities, particularly, State Government securities, could be helpful for market development. To impart liquidity to the government securities market, the investor base also needs to be widened. There is also a need to consider various other measures as detailed in Chapter VI. Securitisation 8.71 Securitisation is gaining acceptance as one of the fastest growing and most innovative forms of asset financing in the global capital market. Asset secur itisation could play an impor tant role in promoting integration of the credit market and the debt market in India. Securitisation increases the number of debt instruments in the market. In the case of

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securitisation, the price of a securitised instrument would tend to converge with the price of a bond. Securitisation, by creating marketability, generates liquidity in the otherwise illiquid portfolio of loan assets of lenders. It also furthers the growth of the bond market by providing investment avenues to investors suiting their r isk-retur n profiles. It, therefore, complements the bond market. In the Indian context, the securitisation market has witnessed a significant growth in recent years. This, therefore, should help in furthering the development of the bond market. The inter national experience shows that the credit appraisal and documentation process in the hands of the loan originator could be lax, which, in turn, could lead to loss of investor confidence in such instruments. Since securitisation essentially involves repackaging of a pool of a large number of relatively small-sized loan receivables, any reassessment by the market of credit risk of the pool has the potential to cause volatility in prices. Therefore, care would need to be taken to ensure that appropriate credit appraisal and documentation process is followed at the time of origination of loans. Derivatives Market 8.72 Financial derivatives have played a major role in the development of financial markets and their integration across several economies, especially in developed countries, in the last two decades. Derivatives serve to achieve a more complete financial system because previously fixed combinations of the risk properties of loans and financial assets can be bundled and unbundled into new synthetic assets. For instance, structured products or synthetic derivatives could be created by adding elementary assets or underlying assets such as bonds, stocks (or equities) and borrowing and lending instruments with a combination of derivative products such as put and call options. Repackaging risk properties in this way can provide a more perfect match between an investors risk preferences and the effective risk of the portfolio or cash-flow. Derivatives allow individual risk elements of an asset to be priced and traded individually, thus, ensuring an efficient price system in the asset markets. In the Indian context, derivative instruments are available in the foreign exchange market, the money market and the equity market. In the foreign exchange market, the instruments are available in the form of currency forwards, swaps and forward rate agreements (FRAs) and rupee options. Though some of the derivative instruments have recorded growth in recent years, the derivative 311

markets continue to face various rigidities on account of (i) lack of credible term money benchmark; (ii) lack of significant participation by large players such as public sector banks, mutual funds and insurance companies; (iii) absence of cash market for floating rate bonds; and (iv) lack of transparency in price and volume information. It would be desirable to address these issues in future for the development of the derivatives market in India. Thus, the widening of par ticipation and enhancing the depth of the derivatives market by allowing several products could contribute to greater inter-linkages amongst the various financial market segments. 8.73 Since its emergence in the early 2000, the interest rate swap mar ket in India has grown significantly both in terms of volumes and participants. In the absence of a term money market, choice of a transparent benchmark for the floating rate in swap deals has all along been an issue. Much like what happened under similar conditions in some other emerging countries, the market devised the so-called MIFOR swaps that use a synthetic benchmark money market rate, derived from LIBOR and the US $/Rupee forward margin. Impressive growth of the interest rate swap mar ket notwithstanding, the r isk free government securities yield curve and the swap curves are not integrated at present. The swap curves have often traded below the government securities curve. Volatility of swap rates in response to changes in short-term rates, has, at times, been higher than yields on government securities. Some policy actions that would result in integration of the government securities yield and swap rates include progressive reduction in SLR, more flexibility with regard to short sale, securities financing arrangements and more open regime in respect of arbitrage between the curves. Technology Platform 8.74 Integration of financial markets is greatly enhanced with an integrated payment, clearing and settlement infrastructure. The Reserve Bank has been working closely with market participants to improve the infrastructure of financial markets. Payment and settlement systems, which constitute the backbone of the financial economy, aim at minimising the systemic risk. The payment system influences the speed, financial risk, reliability and the cost of domestic and international transactions. With the significant improvements in payment and settlement systems, depth and liquidity of various segments of the financial market have improved. Nevertheless, it is to be recognised that not all trading is done through

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

the technology platform introduced and over-thecounter (OTC) trading continues. There is, therefore, need to enhance participation through the technology platform. The widening of par ticipation through technology platform would reduce the settlement cycle and contribute to faster integration of markets. Appropriate Risk Management Strategies 8.75 Greater inter national financial mar ket integration exposes domestic markets to certain risks and contagion. For instance, global financial imbalances, growing sophistication of financial market participants and the proliferation of complex and highly leveraged financial instruments, including credit der ivatives and str uctured products such as collateralised debt obligations, could heighten volatility in the financial mar kets. Thus, with growing international integration, there would be a need to be vigilant about the risk profile of financial intermediaries and their vulnerability to abrupt market price shocks. This under lines the need for appropr iate r isk management strategies as also greater coordination and information sharing among central banks to prevent the transmission of adverse developments abroad to the domestic economy and markets. VI. SUMMING UP 8.76 Domestic financial market integration in India has been largely facilitated by wide-ranging financial sector reforms introduced since the early 1990s. Financial markets in India have acquired greater depth and liquidity. In the process, various market segments have also become better integrated over the years. A high degree of correlation between the long-term government bond yield and the short-term Treasury Bills rate indicates the significance of the termstructure of interest rates in financial markets. Integration of the foreign exchange market with the money and the government securities markets has facilitated liquidity management by the Reserve Bank. However, the equity market has relatively low correlation with other market segments. A sharp

improvement in correlation between the reverse repo rate and money market rates in recent years implies enhanced effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. 8.77 A key feature of global financial integration during the past three decades has reflected in the shift in the composition of capital flows to developing and emerging market economies, especially from official to private flows. Regional integration has served as a major catalyst to the global integration process during the past two decades. East and South East Asian economies, in particular, have achieved substantial integration. Apart from Asias growing integration with the rest of the world, increasing integration within Asia also reflects the growing intraregional trade and financial flows. Evidence from price-based measures suggests that financial market integration in Asia has been increasing. The stock markets in Asia are more integrated than the money and the bond markets. In the region, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore serve as the nodal centres for other stock markets. 8.78 There is evidence of Indias growing international integration through trade and cross border capital flows. Indias trade and financial links with Asia are also growing amidst recent initiatives taken to promote regional cooperation. Emerging Asia has become the growth centre of the world due to shifting of production base to the region. This is likely to stimulate greater financial integration in the region. Indias financial integration within the region and with the inter national financial markets is likely to increase in future in view of its robust growth prospects. However, if benefits are to be maximised from a more integrated economy, the need is to pursue efforts towards a greater sophistication of financial markets and financial market instruments that allow risks to be shared more broadly and capital to flow into the most productive sectors. There would also be a need to constantly review the r isk management practices so that financial institutions and financial markets continue to remain resilient to adverse external developments.

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IX

OVERALL ASSESSMENT

9.1 Deep and liquid financial markets play a key role in allocating resources in an efficient manner among competing uses in an economy, thereby contributing to productivity gains and higher economic growth. Absence of well-developed domestic financial markets can lead to mispricing of risks, misallocation of resources and higher intermediation costs. This could, in turn, lead to a preference for physical assets over financial assets, preference for foreign currency denominated assets vis--vis domestic currency denominated assets, credit and investment booms, matur ity mismatches, overdependence upon international financial markets, currency mismatches, and excessive external debt culminating in periodic crises. In view of the critical role played by the financial markets in financing the growing needs of various sectors of the economy, it is important that financial markets are fully developed and well-integrated. 9.2 Deep and liquid financial markets contribute to efficient price discovery in various segments of the financial market. Well-integrated markets improve efficacy of policy impulses by enabling quick transmission of changes in the central banks shortterm policy rate to the entire spectrum of market rates, both short and long-term, in the money, the credit and the bond markets. Market integration, through interest parity conditions, also links the foreign exchange market with other segments of the market. Thus, changes in the central banks policy rates can, through variations in domestic money market interest rates, impact the exchange rates, which, in turn, impact the real economy. Similarly, movement in policy interest rates can influence other asset markets such as equity and proper ty pr ices, fur ther strengthening the monetary transmission. In case, markets are weakly integrated, the central banks interest rate signals will not have the desired impact on other shor t and long-term interest rates, the exchange rate and other asset prices. In such a scenario, the central bank would need to act in various segments of the market to achieve the desired objectives. In brief, the greater the degree of integration across market segments, the stronger is the transmission of monetary policy to the spectrum of financial markets and on to the real economy. By enabling dispersion of shocks and risks to a particular segment across all markets, well-integrated markets

can also contribute to financial stability. Given the key role of expectations, financial markets help in intertemporal dispersal of risks through derivative markets. However, various benefits emanating from the working of the financial markets depend critically upon the resilience of various segments of the market to withstand shocks and the strength of the risk management systems in place. 9.3 In recognition of the critical role of the financial markets, the onset of the structural reforms in the early 1990s in India also encompassed a process of their phased and coordinated deregulation and liberalisation. Financial markets in India in the period before the early 1990s were marked by administered interest rates, quantitative ceilings, statutory preemptions, captive market for government securities, excessive reliance on central bank financing, pegged exchange rate, and current and capital account restrictions. The reforms have enabled the transition to a regime characterised by market-determined interest and exchange rates, price-based instruments of monetary policy, current account convertibility, substantial capital account liberalisation and vibrant government securities and capital markets. Various reform measures have improved the depth and liquidity of several segments, while also leading to their increased integration. Enhanced integration of financial markets allows risks to be shared more broadly and facilitates the flow of capital to the productive sectors. These developments have, in turn, facilitated the implementation of monetary policy while meeting the financing needs of the various sectors of the economy, and providing a conducive environment for under taking foreign exchange transactions. 9.4 Deregulation, liberalisation and globalisation of financial markets pose several risks to financial stability. The East Asian crises of the 1990s as well as the developments in Turkey and Iceland during 2006 indicate that global financial markets can exacerbate domestic vulnerabilities. In view of these possible destabilising factors from cross-border developments, liberalisation of domestic financial mar kets in India has been accompanied with prudential safeguards. This approach to development and regulation of financial markets has imparted

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

resilience to the financial markets, vividly reflected in their ability to withstand exogenous shocks such as financial crises in Asia, Brazil and Russia, 9/11 terrorist attacks in the US, border tensions, sanctions imposed in the aftermath of nuclear tests, political uncertainties, and the current oil shock. 9.5 The earlier chapters in this Report have dwelt at length with the phased process of transformation of the var ious financial mar ket segments, an assessment of the outcome, and the road ahead. As documented in the preceding chapters, the phased and the sequenced approach to reforms since the early 1990s has led to substantial improvement in depth, liquidity and integration of the var ious segments of the financial mar ket. These developments have (i) improved price discovery and enabled the switch from direct, quantitative instruments to more efficient price-based indirect instruments of monetary policy; (ii) strengthened monetar y transmission; and (iii) enhanced the capacity of the domestic financial mar kets to withstand exogenous shocks. Nonetheless, it is recognised that domestic financial markets need to develop further, especially in order to support the recent acceleration in the growth momentum of the Indian economy. Financial markets would also need to be developed and integrated further in the context of the envisaged move towards fuller capital account conver tibility, developing a diversified financial system, and maximising gains and minimising costs of financial integration. This concluding chapter attempts to summarise the key findings of the analysis contained in the preceding chapters, noting both the progress made so far and the road ahead. MONEY MARKET 9.6 The Reser ve Bank has accorded prime attention to the development of the money market as it is the key link in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to financial markets and finally, to the real economy. In the past, development of the money market was hindered by the system of administered interest rates, directed credit, and lack of proper accounting and risk management systems. With the onset of reforms and the transition to indirect, market-based instruments of monetary policy in the 1990s, the Reserve Bank made conscious efforts to develop an efficient, stable and liquid money market by creating favourable policy environment through appropriate institutional changes, instruments, technologies and market practices. These policy initiatives over time have led to the development of a 314

relatively deep, liquid and vibrant money market in the country. 9.7 In line with the transition in the operating procedures of monetar y policy, the liquidity management operations of the Reserve Bank have been fine-tuned to impar t greater flexibility and enhance the signalling effectiveness of the monetary policy stance. Under the monetary targeting regime adopted between the mid-1980s and the second half of the 1990s, bank reserves became the operating target in the conduct of monetary policy. In this mechanism, reserve requirements played a dominant role in the liquidity management operations of the Reserve Bank. Subsequently, the introduction of financial sector reforms in the early 1990s placed greater emphasis on the market mechanism. This called for the dismantling of the administered interest rate str ucture and reactivation of the indirect instruments of monetary policy, which, in turn, necessitated the active development of the money market. Concomitantly, the increasing financial innovations in the wake of greater openness of the economy necessitated the transition from monetary targeting to a multiple indicator approach in 1998 with greater reliance on rate channels for monetary policy formulation. Accordingly, short-term interest rates have emerged as a key instrument of monetary policy. 9.8 Beginning June 2000, the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF), with daily repo and reverse repo operations, has emerged as the principal tool of liquidity management. However, in view of sustained and large capital flows, well in excess of the current account deficit, money markets have been mostly characterised by surplus liquidity conditions. In order to insulate domestic monetary conditions from the impact of large capital flows, the LAF window was augmented with the issuances under the market stabilisation scheme (MSS) in April 2004 to absorb liquidity of relatively more enduring nature along with the flexible use of the cash reserve ratio. Liquidity management has turned out to be more complex in the recent period on account of greater variation in market liquidity not only on account of pressures emanating from large external flows, but also due to large variations in cash balances of the Government. These developments in the liquidity conditions have necessitated a judicious use of various instruments by the Reserve Bank. 9.9 In line with the objective of widening and deepening the money market and imparting greater liquidity to the market for facilitating efficient price discovery, new instruments, such as collateralised

OVERALL ASSESSMENT

lending and borrowing obligation (CBLO), have been introduced. Money market instruments such as market repo and CBLO have provided avenues for non-banks to manage their shor t-term liquidity mismatches and facilitated the transformation of the call money market into a pure inter-bank market. Furthermore, issuance norms and maturity profiles of other money mar ket instr uments such as commercial paper (CP) and certificates of deposit (CDs) have been modified over time to encourage wider par ticipation while strengthening the transmission of policy signals across the various market segments. The abolition of ad hoc Treasury Bills and introduction of auction Treasury Bills paved the way for the emergence of a risk free rate, which has become a benchmark for pricing other money market instruments. Concomitantly, with the increased market orientation of monetary policy along with greater global integration of domestic markets, the Reser ve Banks emphasis has been on setting prudential limits on borrowing and lending in the call money market, encouraging migration towards the collateralised segments and developing derivative instruments for hedging market risks. This has been complemented by the institutionalisation of the Clearing Corporation of India Limited (CCIL) as a central counterparty. The upgradation of payment system technologies has also enabled market par ticipants to improve their asset liability management. Cumulatively, these measures have widened and deepened the money market in terms of instr uments and par ticipants, enhanced transparency and improved the signalling mechanism of monetar y policy while ensuring financial stability. 9.10 In the emerging scenario of increasing integration of domestic and international markets, several issues have come to the fore. First, the absence of a developed term money market is one of the important gaps in the development of domestic financial markets. This is affecting the development of a money market yield curve, and, in turn, the development of the derivative market and the integration of the foreign exchange market and the domestic currency market. Accordingly, greater efforts would be required to expedite the development of the term money market in the country, given the critical role of this market in the development of other segments. Well-developed term money market would, inter alia, contribute to the emergence of deep and vibrant markets for interest rate derivatives and provide useful inputs of market expectations for the conduct of monetary policy. 315

9.11 Second, in view of the transformation of the call money market into a pure inter-bank market, there may be a need to provide greater flexibility to banks and PDs to borrow or lend in this market, depending upon the robustness of the r isk management practices being followed by them. Prudential limits on borrowing and lending in the inter-bank market could be replaced, in stages, by a system where such limits are taken care of by the banks' own internal ALM framework. Third, in view of sustained credit demand in recent years, there has been some revival of interest in Inter-Bank Par ticipation Cer tificates (IBPCs). IBPCs, by enabling banks to even out their short-term liquidity mismatches, provide greater degree of flexibility in banks' credit por tfolios. Accordingly, the IBPC scheme needs a thorough review to improve asset liability management and liquidity management. This will also help in developing a market for credit risk transfer instruments. 9.12 Fourth, the Reserve Bank in its operations would have to progressively give somewhat more weightage than hitherto to international interest rates in view of increased capital mobility. Fifth, potentially destabilising large and sudden capital flows may call for more flexible and swift monetary policy responses. Sixth, open market operations (OMO), apart from being used for modulating liquidity conditions, could also be used to correct any serious distortions in the yield curve. Seventh, although the Reserve Bank has progressively de-emphasised reserve requirements as an instrument of monetary policy, given the present state of market development, it may be necessary to keep the option of flexible use of reser ve requirements. Finally, as the banking system is moving to maintenance of SLR securities close to the prescribed minimum levels, liquidity provision would become more difficult unless the instrument set is widened to facilitate market participants to even out liquidity mismatches (Mohan, 2006a). CREDIT MARKET 9.13 In India, credit markets have, historically, played a key role in allocating savings towards productive purposes. There has been a profound transformation of the credit market since the early 1990s. Prior to initiation of financial sector reforms, credit institutions operated under a regulator y framewor k character ised by barr iers to entr y, administered interest rates, pre-emption of resources through high statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) and cash reserve ratio (CRR), and allocation of resources through mechanisms such as maximum permissible

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

bank finance (MPBF) and selective credit controls. Credit institutions suffered from several inefficiencies such as high intermediation cost, low profitability and high non-performing assets (NPAs). Against this backdrop, financial sector reforms were initiated in the early 1990s in a phased manner to move away from a financially repressed regime to a liberalised regime through measures such as deregulation of interest rates, entry of new private sector banks, enhanced presence of foreign banks, reduction in statutory pre-emptions, introduction of prudential norms, strengthening of accounting standards and disclosure norms, and permitting banks to raise capital from the market. These measures have subjected the financial institutions to mar ket discipline, enhanced competition, and provided productivity and efficiency gains. The reforms have also strengthened banks risk assessment techniques, thereby increasing the role of interest rates in allocating resources while simultaneously enhancing the transmission of monetary impulses. 9.14 Although a wide range of credit institutions operate in the country, the relative significance of banks, already the predominant players in the credit market, has increased further due to conversion of two major development finance institutions (DFIs) into banks. In this context, it is noteworthy that, after witnessing some deceleration in the late 1990s, credit extended by banks has expanded rapidly beginning 2002-03. Robust macroeconomic performance, revival of investment demand, moderation in interest rates and decline in NPAs appear to have contributed to rapid credit expansion. A welcome development has been large credit expansion to the agriculture sector in the last few years, reflecting the impact of various policy measures. The trend of deceleration in credit to agriculture during the 1990s has, thus, been reversed. As a result, credit intensity of the agriculture sector (credit to agriculture as percentage of sectoral GDP) has increased in recent years. On the other hand, growth in credit to industry during the 1990s and the current decade so far has been somewhat lower than that in the 1980s. This could be attributed partly to alternative avenues of financing available to industry such as external commercial borrowings and domestic and international capital markets. Internal generation of funds, facilitated by strong corporate profitability, has also improved significantly in recent years. At the same time, there has been a sharp increase in medium and long-term bank credit to industry, which is largely for the project related activity. This suggests that banks are filling the gap created by conversion/merger of two DFIs 316

into banks. Credit growth to the SSI sector, which decelerated sharply during 1999-2004, also picked up from 2004-05. Credit intensity of the industrial sector, on the whole, has increased in the current decade so far (up to 2005-06). A key factor underlying the rapid expansion of credit since 2002-03 has been the emergence of demand for housing and personal loans, facilitated by benign interest rate environment, fiscal benefits, increase in income levels and growing competition in the banking sector. Total household credit now constitutes almost one-fourth of total bank credit. In view of growing volume of retail credit, the interest rate channel of monetary policy is likely to have a greater influence on private consumption and economic activity in the country. 9.15 Cross-country experience shows that periods of rapid credit expansion can lead to future financial fragilities. Although the Indian banking sector is robust in view of high level of capital adequacy and low level of NPAs, the Reserve Bank, in the face of rapid credit growth, has consistently emphasised diligent monitoring of the health of loan portfolios of credit institutions. It has also pro-actively tightened risk weights and provisioning requirements, especially in the case of sectors that have witnessed high growth. Notwithstanding the current phase of high credit growth, credit penetration in India remains low even in comparision with several other EMEs. Viewed in a holistic perspective, it is difficult to arrive at a clear judgment as to what rate of credit growth is too high in relation to potential growth (Mohan, 2007a). The Reserve Bank has, therefore, re-emphasised the impor tance of credit quality for secur ing macroeconomic and, in particular, financial stability while simultaneously pursuing greater credit penetration and financial inclusion. 9.16 Notwithstanding some acceleration of growth in credit to the agricultural sector in recent years, inadequate access to credit in rural areas remains a cause of concern. In this context, reliable access to credit at reasonable rates is more important than the cost of credit. Revival of rural co-operative credit institutions through legal and institutional reforms will help in improving the flow of credit to the rural sector and increasing credit penetration. Extension of microfinance in unbanked areas on a greater scale, the use of ser vices of business facilitators/ correspondents and imparting financial education will also help in bringing a higher proportion of rural population within the fold of formal credit institutions. 9.17 With the ongoing liberalisation and deregulation of the financial system, large corporates

OVERALL ASSESSMENT

are able to draw upon several sources of funds such as external commercial borrowings, ADRs/GDRs and domestic capital markets, apart from bank credit, to fund their business requirements. In contrast, small and medium enterprises (SMEs) continue to depend heavily on the banking sector to meet their financing needs. However, given the role played by SMEs in generation of output and employment in the economy, banks need to upgrade their risk assessment techniques to meet the growing requirements of SMEs. Hitherto, the absence of credit history has been one of the major factors restricting the flow of credit to SMEs. The Credit Information Act, 2005 has been enacted and the r ules and regulations thereunder have also been notified. This will facilitate the formation of credit information companies in the country. This, in turn, will improve the quality of credit, reduce the transaction cost and improve the flow of credit to the SME sector. Independent rating of borrowers will also help in minimising the asymmetries in information that restrict lending to the SME sector. 9.18 Although banks have been given the freedom to determine their lending rates, the principles followed by banks in fixing their Benchmark Prime Lending Rate (BPLR) are viewed as opaque. A predominant and growing proportion over eighty per cent of the commercial banks loan portfolio is at sub-BPLR rates. Competition has turned the pricing of a significant proportion of loans far out of alignment with the BPLR and in a non-transparent manner (Mohan, 2007b). The BPLR has ceased to be a reference rate, thereby hindering an assessment of the efficacy of monetary transmission. There is a public perception that banks risk assessment processes are less than appropriate and that there is underpricing of credit for corporates, while there could be overpricing of lending to agriculture and SSIs. Lending below the BPLR has several implications. In particular, the fixation of BPLR continues to be more arbitrary than rule-based. Therefore, the concept of arriving at the BPLR needs to be looked into with a view to making it more transparent. 9.19 In the current situation of high credit expansion, banks have been unwinding their surplus investments in SLR securities, over and above the prescribed minimum. This unwinding is approaching the prescribed minimum of 25 per cent. Deposit mobilisation would, thus, be critical, especially in view of growing credit needs that are likely to emanate from the ongoing financial deepening. Therefore, banks need to make sustained efforts for mobilising stable retail deposits by extending banking facilities 317

and widening their deposit base to support the credit demand in a sustainable manner. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET 9.20 The Reserve Bank has actively pursued the development of the government securities market since the early 1990s for a variety of reasons. First, with the Reserve Bank acting as the debt manager to the Government, a well-developed and liquid government securities market is essential to ensure the smooth passage of Gover nments mar ket borrowings to finance its deficit. Second, the development of the government securities market is also necessary to facilitate the emergence of a risk free rupee yield curve to serve as a benchmark for pr icing other debt instr uments. Finally, the government securities market plays a key role in the effective transmission of monetary policy impulses in a deregulated environment. 9.21 In order to foster the development of the government securities market, primacy was accorded to migrate from a regime of administered interest rates to a market-oriented system. Accordingly, in the early 1990s, the Reserve Bank initiated several measures. First, it introduced the auction system for issuance of government securities. While initially only yield based multiple price auctions were conducted, uniform price based auctions were also employed during uncertain market conditions and while issuing new instruments. Second, as the captive investor base was viewed as constraining the development of the market, the statutory prescription for banks investments in government and other approved securities was scaled down from the peak level in February 1992 to the statutory minimum level of 25 per cent by April 1997. As a result, the focus shifted towards the widening of the investor base. A network of intermediaries in the form of primary dealers was developed for this purpose. Retail participation has been promoted in the primary market (through a system of non-competitive bidding in the auctions) as well as in the secondary market (by allowing retail trading in stock exchanges). Simultaneously, the Reserve Bank also introduced new instruments with innovative features to cater to diverse market preferences, although the success in this regard has been limited. 9.22 Third, with the discontinuance of the process of unconstrained recourse by the Government from the Reserve Bank through automatic monetisation of deficit and conversion of non-marketable securities to marketable securities, the Reserve Bank gained

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

more operational freedom. Fourth, in an effort to increase liquidity, the Reserve Bank has, since the late 1990s, pursued a strategy of passive consolidation of debt by raising progressively higher share of market borrowings through re-issuances. This has resulted in critical mass in key maturities, and is facilitating the emergence of mar ket benchmarks. Finally, the Reserve Bank is also undertaking measures to strengthen the technological infrastructure for trading and settlement. A screenbased anonymous trading and reporting platform has been introduced in the form of NDS-OM, which enables electronic bidding in primary auctions and disseminates trading information with a minimum time lag. Furthermore, with the setting up of CCIL, an efficient settlement mechanism has also been institutionalised, which has imparted considerable stability to the government securities market. 9.23 With the withdrawal from the primary market from April 2006 in accordance with the stipulations under the FRBM Act, the Reserve Bank introduced the necessary institutional changes in the form of revamping and widening of the coverage of the PD system to meet the emerging challenges. Other measures taken to deepen the market and promote liquidity include introduction of when issued trading, short selling of government securities and active consolidation of government debt through buybacks. 9.24 Various policy initiatives taken by the Reserve Bank over the years to widen and deepen the government securities market in terms of instruments as well as participants have enabled successful completion of market borrowing programmes of the Gover nment under var ied circumstances. In particular, a smooth transition to the post-FRBM phase has been ensured. Turnover in the secondary market for government securities has increased substantially indicating the effectiveness of various measures taken to improve liquidity in key maturities. The issuance of long-term securities has enabled the development of the yield cur ve across 30-year maturity, although it is not liquid and active at the longer end of the maturity. With the widening of investor base, the holding pattern of government debt has diversified. The government securities market is getting increasingly integrated with the domestic money market as well as international interest rates. 9.25 The evolving economic conditions and move towards fuller capital account convertibility, however, necessitate fur ther fine-tuning of the operating framework so as to ensure smooth debt management operations. There are certain issues which need to 318

be addressed for making the government securities market more vibrant and also to meet the debt management objectives in an efficient manner. In the absence of instruments to allow market participants to take a forward looking view on interest rates, turnover in the secondary market has been observed to rise during the falling interest rate cycle, but decline during the rising interest rate cycle. In this context, introduction of intra-day short selling, followed by the permision for short selling up to five trading days are steps in the right direction. Liquidity could be improved fur ther through active consolidation of existing securities, phased increase in marked-to-market portfolio of banks and early introduction of STRIPS. In view of the restriction on the Reserve Banks subscription to Central Government securities in the primary market under the FRBM Act, it is crucial to diversify the investor base further. The investor base also needs to be widened in view of the possibility of reduction in the captive investor base resulting from any scaling down of the SLR from the present level; the floor of SLR has been removed by the Banking Regulation (Amendment) Act, 2007 which is deemed to have come into force on January 23, 2007. Any decision in this regard will of course depend on overall macroeconomic and monetary conditions. State Government securities are relatively illiquid, which affects the cost of borrowing for the State Governments. Some of the measures taken for improving liquidity of Central Government securities may need to be considered for State Government securities as well. FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET 9.26 The Indian foreign exchange market has witnessed far reaching changes since the early 1990s, following the phased transition from a pegged exchange rate regime to a market determined exchange rate regime in 1993 and the subsequent adoption of current account convertibility in 1994. Market participants have been provided with greater flexibility to undertake foreign exchange operations and manage their risks. This has been facilitated through simplification of procedures and availability of several new instruments. There has also been significant improvement in market infrastructure in terms of trading platform and settlement mechanisms. As a result, depth and liquidity of the market have improved significantly over the years. Efficiency in the foreign exchange market has also improved as is reflected in low bid-offer spreads. With the gradual opening up of the capital account, forward premia is getting increasingly aligned with the interest rate differential.

OVERALL ASSESSMENT

9.27 The foreign exchange market conditions have remained orderly in the post-1993 period, barring occasional periods of volatility. The Indian approach to exchange rate management has been to avoid excessive volatility. This has contributed to stability in the market. Intervention by the Reserve Bank in the foreign exchange market, though effective, has been relatively small compared to total turnover in the market. The EMEs experience, in general, in the 1990s has highlighted the growing importance of capital flows in determining the exchange rate movements as against trade flows and economic growth in the 1980s and before. In the case of most developing countries, which specialise in labourintensive and low and intermediate technology products, profit margins in the highly competitive markets are very thin and vulnerable to pricing power by large retail chains. Consequently, exchange rate volatility has significant employment, output and distr ibutional consequences (Mohan, 2004). Managing exchange rate volatility would, thus, continue to require attention in EMEs such as India. 9.28 Capital flows received by India since 1993-94 have generally remained well above the current account deficit. The foreign exchange market has, therefore, been characterised by excess supply conditions during the most part of the post-reform period. Consistent with the policy framework with regard to exchange rate management and foreign exchange reserves, the Reserve Bank has purchased excess supplies from the market. The expansionary impact of such purchases on monetary aggregates and domestic economy has been neutralised, inter alia, through increased exchange rate flexibility, phased liberalisation of the policy framework in relation to current as well as capital accounts, flexibility to corporates to prepay external commercial borrowings, extension of foreign currency account facilities to residents, allowing banks to liberally invest abroad in high quality instruments, and liberalising surrender requirements for exporters (Reddy, 2007a). These measures have been supplemented with the sterilisation operations in the form of open market operations, repo operations under the LAF, modulation in the cash reserve ratio, and innovations such as market stabilisation scheme. This approach to management of capital flows has been successful so far in maintaining macroeconomic and financial stability while minimising the impact of volatility in capital flows and exchange rate on the domestic economy. The challenges to monetary and liquidity management are likely to intensify in the years ahead from the ongoing process of capital account 319

liberalisation and the further integration of the Indian economy with the global economy. Global developments are expected to play an increasingly important role in determining the conduct of monetary and exchange rate policies, calling for hard choices in terms of goals and instruments. 9.29 Moving forward, further initiatives towards developing the Indian foreign exchange market need to be aligned with the external sector reforms, particularly the move towards further liberalisation of capital controls, for which a fresh roadmap has been provided by the Committee on Fuller Capital Account Convertibility (FCAC).The agenda for the future should, therefore, include introduction of more instruments, particularly derivative products, widening of participants base, commensurate regulations along with the entrenchment of modern risk management systems and improved customer service. Reforms in the foreign exchange market will also have to be har monised with the evolving macroeconomic environment as well as the development of other segments of the financial market, particularly the money, the equity and the government securities markets. They will also have to be harmonised with the evolving needs of the real economy. EQUITY AND CORPORATE DEBT MARKET 9.30 The Indian equity market has witnessed a significant improvement since the reform process began in the early 1990s and is now comparable with the best international markets. There has been a visible improvement in trading and settlement infrastructure, risk management systems, efficiency and levels of transparency in the equity market. The transaction cost has declined and volatility has also been contained. Nevertheless, the role of the Indian capital market, equity as well as debt, in domestic economic activity continues to be relatively less significant. Savings of the household sector in the form of shares and debentures and units of mutual funds remain at relatively low levels, reflecting households preference for safe and contractual instruments as opposed to capital market based instruments. The size of the public issues segment has remained small as corporates have tended to prefer the international capital market and the private placement market, apart from relying on internal sources and bank credit. The cor porate bond market, in par ticular, has remained underdeveloped, reflecting a variety of factors such as absence of a reliable and liquid yield curve, high cost of issuance and lack of liquidity in the secondary market.

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

9.31 A growing economy like India requires risk capital and long-term resources for enabling the corporates to choose an appropriate mix of debt and equity. Acceleration in economic growth has created large demand for funds by the corporate sector. Encouraging business outlook and congenial investment climate have encouraged companies to undertake capacity expansion. Long-term resources are particularly important for financing infrastructure projects. A well-functioning domestic capital market is also necessary to enable the banking sector to raise necessary capital from the market to sustain its growing operations. Furthermore, a well-functioning bond market can be an effective channel of monetary transmission in case the banking sector is impaired or in situations when banks adopt an oligopolistic pricing behaviour. On supply side too, rising income levels and savings would require alter native investment options, including equity and corporate debt. Therefore, in order to sustain Indias high growth, the capital market would have to play a major role. 9.32 Prospective reforms in the equity market need to focus on developing strong domestic institutional investors, adherence to international best practices in corporate governance and reduction in time and cost for floating public issues. Promoters continue to hold a large portion of equity in the companies. Concentrated ownership prevents the broad distr ibution of gains from the equity mar ket development, with implications for the functioning of the corporate governance framework and protection of rights of minority shareholders. 9.33 There is very little activity in the public issue segment of the private corporate debt market. Keeping in view the proposals made in the Union Budget, 200607 and the recommendations made by the High Level Exper t Committee on Cor porate Bonds and Securitisation, the SEBI has recently initiated steps to capture timely information relating to trading in corporate bonds by establishing trade reporting platforms at the BSE and the NSE. The next phase of development would involve the setting up of a corporate debt trading platform, which is expected to contribute to efficient price discovery and reliable clearing and settlement mechanism. The market development process for bonds in India is likely to be a gradual process as has been experienced in other countries. In this context, the experience gained from developing the government securities market should prove useful. The corporate debt market would require a large number of investors and large sized issues to function effectively. As in the case of government securities market, the problem of small size of issues 320

will have to be addressed by bringing about more discipline in issuances and consolidation through reissuances. The role played by market players such as primary dealers in developing the government securities market may need to be replicated through an appropriate institutional framework in the corporate bond market. Counterparty guarantee for settlement of trades to reduce counterparty and settlement risks would promote secondary market activity in corporate bonds. Macroeconomic stability would also aid the process of market development. Increased availability of structured financial products such as mortgage and asset-backed securities can also encourage the development of the cor porate bond market by addressing its fundamental limitation, namely, the gap between the credit quality of bonds that investors would like to hold and the actual credit quality of potential borrowers. 9.34 An underdeveloped corporate bond market results in excessive reliance of the corporate sector on bank credit, which reduces supply of funds to small and medium enterprises, and also creates a gap in institutional finance for long-ter m financing requirements. Strong and deep domestic capital markets will be essential to sustain investment and growth that has been witnessed since 2003-04. SUMMING UP 9.35 The Reserve Bank, like other central banks, has taken a keen interest in the development of the money, the credit, the government securities and the foreign exchange markets in view of their critical role in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The approach has been one of simultaneous movement on several fronts, graduated and calibrated, with an emphasis on institutional and infrastructural development and improvements in market microstructure. The pace of reforms was contingent upon putting in place appropriate systems and procedures, technologies and market practices. There has been close co-ordination between the Reserve Bank and the Government, as also with other regulators, which helped in orderly and smooth development of the various segments of the financial market in India. The Reserve Bank has also engaged in refining the operating procedures and instruments as also r isk management systems, income recognition and provisioning, and disclosure and accounting standards in line with international best practices with a view to fostering the seamless integration of Indian financial markets with global markets (Mohan, 2007b).

OVERALL ASSESSMENT

9.36 Initiatives taken by the Reserve Bank and other regulatory authorities have brought about a significant transformation in the working of various segments of the financial market. Domestic financial markets have transited from a highly administered system marked by administered interest rates, credit controls and exchange control to a system dominated by marketdetermined interest rates and exchange rate and pricebased instruments of monetar y policy. These developments, by improving the depth and liquidity in the domestic financial markets, have contributed to better price discovery of interest rates and exchange rates, which, in turn, have led to greater efficiency in resource allocation in the economy. The increase in size and depth of financial markets has paved the way for flexible use of indirect instruments. Greater depth and liquidity and freedom to market participants have also increased integration of the various segments of the financial market. Increased integration not only leads to more efficient dispersal of risks across the spectrum but also increases the efficacy of monetary policy impulses. In a world of integrated financial markets, monetary policy operates not only through the conventional interest rate channel but also through the exchange rate and other asset prices channels, thereby strengthening the impact of monetary policy on the real economy and inflation. Evidence suggests that growing integration of various financial market segments in India has been accompanied by lower volatility of interest rates. 9.37 Development of financial markets is an ongoing process. Initiatives to further deepen and widen the various segments of the financial market will, therefore, need to be pursued in the period ahead. Financial markets will have to play an even more important role in future to sustain the current growth momentum being experienced by the Indian economy. Large investment needs of the growing economy will depend heavily upon the ability of the financial markets to raise resources from savers and allocate them efficiently for the most productive uses. Further development and integration of various segments is also important in the context of envisaged move towards fuller capital account convertibility. As the Report of the Committee on Fuller Capital Account Convertibility (2006) observed, any country intending to introduce fuller capital account convertibility needs to ensure that different market segments are not only well-developed but also wellintegrated. Accordingly, development of the term money market, greater flexibility in the use of derivatives in the foreign exchange market, development of the corporate bond market and creation of secondary markets in several instruments such as certificates of 321

deposit and commercial paper are some of the aspects of market development that would need to be given due attention for imparting more depth and liquidity to the domestic financial markets. 9.38 As a result of various policy initiatives, the financial sector in India is no longer a constraint on growth, though further improvements need to take place. However, without further development in terms of physical infrastructure and improvement in supply elasticities in the real sector, the financial sector can even misallocate resources, potentially generate bubbles and possibly amplify the risks. Hence, reforms in the financial sector have complementarity with the pace and process of reforms in the real sector in India (Reddy, 2007b). 9.39 Concomitantly, with growing liberalisation, deregulation and integration with global financial markets, policy initiatives have ensured that domestic financial markets and market participants are in a position to absorb unanticipated and large shocks that can emanate from global developments so that financial stability is maintained in the country while suppor ting the growth. The Indian experience demonstrates that development of markets is an arduous and time-consuming task that requires conscious policy actions and effective implementation. Financial markets have to be created, nurtured and monitored on a continuous basis, before they start functioning autonomously (Mohan, 2006c). To sustain the growth momentum witnessed since 2003-04, it is imperative that domestic savings rise further to meet the growing investment needs of the economy. The demand for funds, including long-term funds, is likely to remain high, particularly in view of relatively low credit penetration in the economy. Against this backdrop, calibrated policy initiatives to deepen and widen the various segments of the financial market would need to be pursued on an ongoing basis so that domestic financial markets can effectively mobilise domestic savings and allocate them among competing uses while also enhancing the transmission of monetary policy impulses to the rest of the economy. 9.40 Growing integration of domestic financial markets with international financial markets across the globe also poses the threat of contagion. In the recent past, financial markets, globally, have been marked by abundant liquidity conditions, elevated asset prices, and low long-term interest rates. The search for yield has resulted in large external flows into emerging market economies over the past few years leading, inter alia, to the problem of monetary

REPORT ON CURRENCY AND FINANCE

management. Risk spreads and measures of volatility have also declined to quite low levels. These developments in financial markets can be partly attributed to greater macroeconomic stability stable output growth accompanied by low and stable inflation since the 1990s compared with the 1970s and the 1980s. The decline in volatility in the international financial markets in the recent period, however, need not necessarily suggest absence of risk. While the financial system may have become more efficient in risk-bearing, it is taking more risks than before, which have the potential to expose the system to large systemic shocks (Rajan, 2005). Accordingly, the current conditions of financial market tranquillity in an environment of ample global liquidity and large and growing global macroeconomic imbalances have raised concerns as to whether financial markets are pricing in risk appropriately. 9.41 The re-pricing of risks can trigger massive adjustments in portfolio holdings of global investors and this can lead to sharp swings in capital flows out of riskier assets in emerging economies with implications for foreign exchange markets and other domestic financial segments, as was clearly evident

during the recent global equity markets meltdown during May-June 2006 and again in February/March 2007. Thus, policymakers as well as financial market participants would have to contend with the swings in the financial markets on an even greater scale in future than hitherto. Against this backdrop, while focusing on improving the capacity of the financial system to withstand shocks, central banks would need to stand prepared to make appropriate monetary policy adjustments if changes in the financial conditions threaten the achievement of the goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth (Geithner, 2007). 9.42 Issues of financial stability are, thus, likely to assume even greater importance in future, especially for emerging economies. In India, large segments of economic agents may not have adequate resilience to withstand volatility in financial markets. The Reserve Banks policies are, therefore, vigilant to any indications of volatility in currency and money markets (RBI, 2007). The policy initiatives to deepen and widen the financial markets further to reap efficiency gains will need to be pursued while ensuring macroeconomic and financial stability in the economy.

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SELECT REFERENCES
I. THEME OF THE REPORT Bagehot, Walter. 1873. A Description of the Money Market. Lombard Street, Richard Irvin Inc. Gambhir, N., and M. Goel. 2003. Foreign Exchange Derivatives Market in India - Status and Prospects. in Derivatives Markets In India, Invest India (ed.) Susan Thomas, Tata McGraw-Hill. Government of India. 2007. High Powered Expert Committee Report on Making Mumbai An International Financial Centre, April. King, Robert G., and Ross Levine. 1993. Finance and Growth : Schumpeter Might be Right. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3). Levine, Ross, and Sara Zervos. 1996. Stock Market Development and Long-Run Growth. World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 10. Levine, Ross. 1997. Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(2). Lipschitz, Leslie. 2007. Wising Up about Finance. Finance and Development, 44(1), March. McKinnon, R. 1973. Money and Capital in Economic Development. The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C. Mishkin, Frederic S. 2006. The Next Great Globalisation: How Disadvantaged Nations Can Harness Their Financial Systems to Get Rich. New Jersey : Princeton University Press. Mohan, Rakesh. 2004. Challenges to Monetary Policy in A Global Context. RBI Bulletin, January.

. 2006a. Coping with Liquidity Management: A Practitioners View. RBI Bulletin, April. . 2006b. Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Frameworks: The Indian Experience. RBI Bulletin, June. . 2006c. Economic Growth, Financial Deepening and Financial Inclusion. RBI Bulletin, November. . 2007. Development of Financial Markets in India. Speech Delivered at the first Indian-French
Financial Forum in Mumbai, May 16. Rajan, Raghuram G., and Luigi Zingales. 1998. Financial Dependence and Growth. American Economic Review, 88 (3).

. 2003. Saving Capitalism from Capitalists, Crown Business, New York.

Rato, Rodrigode. 2006. The Growing Integration of the Financial Sector and the Broader Economy: Challenges for Policy Makers. Speech at the Colegio de Economistas Madrid, Spain, November 23. Reddy, Y.V. 2000. Monetary and Financial Sector Reforms in India: A Central Bankers Perspective. UBS Publishers Distributors Pvt. Ltd.

. 2004. Financial Stability: Indian Experience. RBI Bulletin, July. . 2005. Implications of Global Financial Imbalances for the Emerging Market Economies. RBI
Bulletin, December. Reserve Bank of India. 2006. Report of the Committee on Fuller Capital Account Convertibility (Chairman: S.S.Tarapore), July. Robinson, Joan. 1952. The Generalization of the General Theory. in The Rate of Interest and Other Essays, London : McMillan. Schumpeter, Joseph E. 1912. A Theory of Economic Development. New York : Oxford University Press.

Shaw, E. 1973. Financial Deepening in Economic Development. New York : Oxford University Press. World Bank. 2006. The Road to Robust East Asian Financial Markets, September.

III. MONEY MARKET Bandt, D. O. 1999. A Cross Country Comparison of Market Structures in European Banking. European Central Bank Working Paper, No.7, September. Bernanke, Ben, and M. Gertler. 1995. Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4): 27-48. Bhattacharyya, I., and R. Sensarma. 2005. Signalling Instruments of Monetary Policy: The Indian Experience. Journal of Quantitative Economics, 3(2):180-196. Blenck D, et al. 2001. The Main Features of the Monetary Policy Frameworks of Bank of Japan, the Federal Reserve and the Euro System, BIS Paper, No. 9. Blinder, A. S. 2006. Monetary Policy Today: Sixteen Questions and about Twelve Answers. in Central Banks in the 21st Century, (eds.) S. Fernandez de Lis and F. Restoy, Banco de Espana, 31-72. Borio, Claudio E.V. 1997. The Implementation of Monetary Policy in Industrialised Countries: A Survey. BIS Economic Papers, No.47, July. Clarida, R., J. Gali, and M. Gertler. 1999. The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective. Journal of Economic Literature, 37(4): 1661-1707. Chow, G. 1989. Rational versus Adaptive Expectations in Present Value Models. Review of Economics and Statistics, 71(3):376-384. August. Forssbaeck, J., and L. Oxelheim. 2003. Money Markets and Politics - A Study of European Financial Integration and Monetary Policy Options. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham. Friedman, B.M. 2000a. The Role of Interest Rates in Federal Reserve Policymaking. NBER Working Paper No. 8047, December.

. 2000b. Monetary Policy, NBER Working Paper No. 8057, December.

Government of India. 1998. Report of the Committee on Banking Sector Reforms (Chairman: M. Narasimham). Gray, S. 1998. Repo of Government Securities. Handbooks in Central Banking, No. 16, CCBS, Bank of England. Gray, S., and J. Place. 1999. Repo of Government Securities. Handbooks in Central Banking, No. 17, CCBS, Bank of England. Hawkins, J. 2005. Globalisation and Monetary Operations in Emerging Economies. BIS Paper, No. 23, May. Jalan, Bimal. 2002. Research and Policy Developments in Money, Finance and the External Sector. in Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy: Issues for a Reforming Economy (eds.) M. S. Ahluwalia, Y. V. Reddy and S. S. Tarapore, New Delhi: Oxford University Press. Joshi, H. 2005. The Interbank Money Market in India: Evidence on Volatility, Efficacy of Regulatory Initiatives and Implications for Interest Rate Targeting. RBI Occasional Papers, 25 (1, 2 and 3, Summer, Monsoon and Winter 2004). Kuttner, K. N. and P. C. Mosser. 2002. The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Some Answers and Further Questions. Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, May.

II

Maeda, E., B. Fujiwara, and A. Mineshima Taniguchi. 2005. Japans Open Market Operations under the Quantitative Easing Policy. Bank of Japan Working Paper, No.05-E-3, April. Mehran, Hassanali, Laurens, Bernard, Quintyn, Marc. (eds.). 1996. Interest Rate Liberalisation and Money Market Development: Selected Country Experiences, International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C. Mohan, Rakesh. 2004. Challenges to Monetary Policy in a Globalising Context. RBI Bulletin, March.

. 2006. Coping with Liquidity Management in India: A Practitioners View. RBI Bulletin, April.
Poole, W. 1970. Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 84(2):197-216, May. Reddy, Y.V. 1999. Development of Money Market in India. Address at the Fifth J.V. Somayajulu Memorial Lecture at Madras, February. . 2002. Monetary and Financial Sector Reforms in India: A Practitioners Perspective. RBI Bulletin, May. Reserve Bank of India. 1985. Report of the Committee to Review the Working of the Monetary System (Chairman: Sukhomoy Chakravarty). . 1987. Report of the Working Group on the Money Market (Chairman: N. Vaghul). . 1991. Report of the Committee on the Financial System. (Chairman: M. Narasimham). . 2003a. Report of the Working Group on Call Money Market, RBI. . 2003b. Report of the Working Group on Instruments of Sterilisation (Chairperson: Ms. Usha Thorat). . 2004a. Report on Currency and Finance, 2003-04. . 2004b. Annual Report, 2003-04. . 2005. Report of the Technical Group on Money Market, May . . 2006. Report of the Committee on Fuller Capital Account Convertibility (Chairman: S. S. Tarapore). Rotemberg, J. J., and M. Woodford. 1997. An Optimization- Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy. in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, (eds.) Bernanke Ben and J.J. Rotemberg. Cambridge: MIT Press. Samuelson, P. A., and R. M. Solow. 1960. Analytical Aspects of Anti-inflation Policy. American Economic Review, 50(5):177-194. Solans, E. D. 2003. Financial Innovations and Monetary Policy. the 38th SEACEN Governors Conference and 22nd Meeting of SEACEN Board of Governors on Structural Change and Growth Prospects in Asia Challenges to Central Banking. Manila, February. Spence, M.1973. Job Market Signalling. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87(3), August. Vant dack, J. 1999. Implementing Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies: An Overview of Issues. BIS Policy Papers, (5): 3-72. March. IV. CREDIT MARKET Banerjee, Abhijit V., Shawn Cole, and Esther Duflo. 2003. Bank Financing in India. MIT, October. Barth, James R., Gerard Caprio Jr., and Ross Levine. 2002. Financial Regulation and Performance: Cross Country Evidence. in Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crisis (eds.), Leonardo Hernandez and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, Central Bank of Chile, Santiago.

III

Beck, Thorsten, Asli Demirguc-Kunt, and Maria Soledad Martinez Peria. 2005. Reaching out: Access to and Use of Banking Services Across Countries. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 3754, October. Bernanke, Ben, and M. Gertler. 1995. Inside the Black Box: the Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission. NBER Working Paper, No. 5146. Bernanke, Ben, and A. Blinder. 1988. Credit, Money and Aggregate Demand. American Economic Review (AEA Papers and Proceedings), Vol. 78. Bernanke, Ben, and Simon Gilchrist. 1999. The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework. in Handbook of Macroeconomics, Vol.1C, (ed.) John Taylor and Michael Woodford (Amsterdam: North-Holand). Bernanke, Ben. 2002. Asset Price Bubbles and Monetary Policy. BIS Review, 59. BIS. 2003. Credit Risk Transfer, Committee on the Global Financial System, January. . 2006a. Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June. . 2006b. Committee on the Global Financial System, Housing Finance in the Global Financial Market. Working Group Report, No.26. Caprio, Gerard, and Daniela Klingebiel. 2003. Episodes of Systemic and Borderline Financial Crises. The World Bank, Washington. Diamond, D.W. 1984. Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring. Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 51:393-414. Gertler, Mark, and Simon Gilchrist. 1993. The Role of Credit Market Imperfections in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Arguments and Evidence. Finance and Economics, Discussion Series 93-5, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. U.S. . 1994. Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behaviour of Small Manufacturing Firms. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(2):309-40. May. Gourinchas, Pierre-Oliver, Valdes Rodrigo, and Landerretche Oscar. 2000. Lending Booms: Some Stylized Facts. MIT, February. Hernandez, L., and Landerretche Oscar. 2002. Capital Inflows, Credit Booms and Macroeconomic Vulnerability: The Cross-country Experience. in Banking Financial Integration and International Crises, Central Bank of Chile, Santiago. Hilbers, Paul, Inci Otker-Robe, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, and Gudrun Johnsen. 2005. Assessing and Managing Rapid Credit Growth and the Role of Supervisory and Prudential policies. IMF Working Paper, WP/05/151, July. IMF. 2002. Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual. . 2004. World Economic Outlook, April. . 2006: Global Financial Stability Report, September. Joshi, H. 2006. Identifying Asset Price Bubbles in the Housing Market in India Preliminary Evidence. RBI Occasional Papers, 27 (1 and 2): 182. Levine, R. 2004. Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence. NBER Working Paper, No. 10766. Lindgren, Carl-Johan, Gillian Garcia, and Matthew Saal. 1996. Bank Soundness and Macroeconomic Policy, IMF, Washington.

IV

Mishkin, Frederic S. 1995. Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9 (4) (Autumn). Mohan, Rakesh. 2003. Transforming Indian Banks: In Search for a Better Tomorrow. RBI Bulletin, January. . 2005. Some Apparent Puzzles for Contemporary Monetary Policy. RBI Bulletin, December. . 2006a. Financial Sector Reforms and Monetary Policy: The Indian Experience. RBI Bulletin, July. . 2006b. Economic Growth, Financial Deepening and Financial Inclusion. RBI Bulletin, 1305-1320. November. . 2006c. Reforms, Productivity and Efficiency in Banking: The Indian Experience. RBI Bulletin, 279-293. March. Mohanty, M.S., Gert Schnabel, and Pablo Gracia-Luna. 2006. Banks and Aggregate Credit: What is New?, BIS Papers, No.28, August. NSSO. 2006a. Household Assets and Liabilities as on 30.06.2002, All India Debt and Investment Survey, 59th Round, Report No.500, National Sample Survey Organisation, Government of India. . 2006b. Household Indebtedness in India as on 30.06.2002, All India Debt and Investment Survey, 59th Round, Report No.501, National Sample Survey Organisation, Government of India. Ottens, Daniel, Edwin Lambregts, and Steven Poelhekke. 2005. Credit Boom in Emerging Market Economies: A Recipe for Banking Crisis?. DNB Working Papers, Netherlands Central Bank. Pandit, B. L., Ajit Mittal, Mohua Roy, and Saibal Ghosh. 2006. Transmission of Monetary Policy and the Bank Lending Channel: Analysis and Evidence for India. DRG Study No. 25, Reserve Bank of India, Mumbai. Rajan, Raghuram G., and L. Zingales. 1988. Financial Dependence and Growth. American Economic Review, 88, June. Reddy, Y.V. 2004. Credit Policy, Systems and Culture. RBI Bulletin, March. . 2006a. Credit Counseling: An Indian Perspective. RBI Bulletin, 1117-1120. October. . 2006b and c. The Role of Financial Education: The Indian Case. RBI Bulletin, 1131-1135. October. . 2006d. Rural Banking: Review and Prospects. RBI Bulletin, January. Reserve Bank of India. 1998. Working Group on Money Supply: Analytics and Methodology of Compilation (Chairman: Dr. Y.V. Reddy), June. . 2003. Report of the Working Group on Introduction of Credit Derivatives in India (Convenor: B. Mahapatra), Mumbai, March. . 2004. Report of the Working Group on Flow of Credit to the SSI sector (Chairman: Dr. A. S. Ganguly), Mumbai, September. . 2006. Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy 2005-06. . Report on Currency and Finance, Various Issues. . Report on Trend and Progress of Banking in India, Various Issues. . Annual Report, Various Issues. . Basic Statistical Returns, Various Volumes.

Rozhkov, Dmitriy. 2006. On the Way to a World-Class Banking Sector. in India Goes Global: Its Expanding Role in the World Economy, (eds.) Catriona Purfield and Jerald Schiff. IMF. Singh, Manmohan. 2006. Address at the Second Agriculture Summit, New Delhi, October 18. Ueda Kazuo. 2003. On Credit Risk Transfer Instruments and Central Banks. 18th Annual General Meeting, Tokyo, April. V. GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET

Abbink, Klaus, Jordi Brandts, and Paul Pezanis-Christou. 2002. Auctions for Government Securities: A Laboratory Comparison of Uniform, Discriminatory and Spanish Designs. November. www.nottingham.ac.uk/. Asian Development Bank. 2005 and 2006. Asia Bond Monitor. Back, K., and J.P. Zender. 1993. Auctions for Divisible Goods with Endogenous Supply. The Review of Financial Studies, 6(4): 733-764. Bank of England.1999. Government Debt Structure and Monetary Conditions. Quarterly Bulletin, November. Bank for International Settlements.1999. How Should We Design Deep and Liquid Markets? The Case for Government Securities. Committee on Global Financial System, Basel, October. . 2001a. The Changing Shape of Fixed Income Markets: A Collection of Studies by Central Bank Economists. Monetary and Economic Department. . 2001b. International Organisation of Securities Commissions and Technical Committee of the International Organisation of Securities Commissions - Recommendations for Securities Settlement Systems. Bank Negara Malaysia. 2005. Annual Report. Bank of Thailand. Private Repurchase Market. Market Research and Development Team, Financial Markets and Reserve Management http://www.bot.or.th. Bedlord, Margaret E. 1978.The Federal Reserve and the Government Securities Market. Economic Review, April. Borio, Claudio. 2004. Market Distress and Vanishing Liquidity: Anatomy and Policy Options. BIS Working Paper No. 158, July. Chabchitrchaidol, Akkharaphol, and Orawan Permpoon. 2002. Development of the Thai Bond Market. BIS Papers No. 11, June-July. Chrystal, A., A. Haldane, and J. Proudman.1999.Government Debt Structure and Monetary Conditions. Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, November. Commonwealth of Australia. 2002. Review of Commonwealth Government Securities Market. Discussion Paper, October. Dato, Salleh Harun. 2002. The Development of Debt Markets in Malaysia. BIS Papers No. 11, June-July. Department of Treasury. 1992. Joint Report on the Government Securities Market. US Government Printing Office, Washington D. C. Doi, Takero, and Takeo Hoshi. 2002. Paying for the FILP. NBER Working Paper No.W9385, December. G-20. 2004. Workshop on Developing Strong Domestic Financial Markets, April.

VI

Gordy, M.B. 1999. Hedging Winners Curse with Multiple Bids: Evidence from the Portuguese Treasury Bill Auction. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 81(3): 448-465. Goswami, G., T.H. Noe, and M.J. Rebello. 1996. Collusion in Uniform-Price Auctions: Experimental Evidence and Implications for Treasury Auctions. The Review of Financial Studies, 9(3): 757-785. Guorong, Jiang, and Robert McCauley. 2004. Asian Local Currency Bond Markets. BIS Quarterly Review. Harris, L. 1990. Liquidity, Trading Rules and Electronic Trading Systems. Monograph Series in Finance and Economics, No 4. Stern School of Business, New York University. Hattori, Masazumi, Koji Koyama, and Tatsuya Yonetani. 2001. Analysis of Credit Spread in Japans Corporate Bond Market. BIS Papers. No. 5. Herring, R.J., and N. Chatusripitak. 2000. The Case of the Missing Market: The Bond Market and Why it Matters for Financial Development. ADB Institute Working Paper No.11. Hirose, Masato, Tokeshi Murakami, and Yutaro Oku. 2004. Development of Asia Bond Market and Business Opportunities. NRI Papers, Nomura Research Institute. IMF. 2001. Developing Government Bond Markets: A Handbook, Washington D.C. IMF-World Bank. 2002. Guidelines for Public Debt Management: Accompanying Document, November. Jadhav, Narendra. 2006. Evolution of Financial Markets in India. Monetary Policy, Financial Stability and Central Banking in India, New Delhi: Macmillan India Limited. Kim, Yongbeom, S. M. Irene Ho, and Mark St Giles. 2003. Developing Institutional Investors in Peoples Republic of China. World Bank Country Study Paper. Kim, Yun-Hwan, and M. Suleik. 2001. Overviews of the Government Bond Markets in Selected Asian Developing Countries. in Government Bond Market Development (ed.) Kim Yun-Hwan. Manila: ADB. Korean Government Bond Market, Current Status and Future agenda, http://www.bex.or.th. Krstic, Borko, and Srdan Marinkovic.1997. Yield Curve and Interest Rate Risk. Economics and Organisation, 1(5). Lagan, Marco, Martin Peina, Isabel Von Kppen-Mertes, and Avinash Persaud. 2006. Implications for Liquidity from Innovation and Transparency in the European Corporate Bond Market. ECB Occasional Paper No. 50. Malvey, P.F., C.M. Archibald, and S.T. Flynn.1997. Uniform-Price Auctions: Evaluation of the Treasury Experiment. Office of Market Finance, U.S.Treasury, Washington D.C. McCauley, M. Robert, and Eli Remolona. 2000. Special Feature: Size and Liquidity of Government Bond Market. BIS Quarterly Review. McCauley, M. Robert, 2006. Consolidating the Public Debt Markets of Asia. BIS Papers No. 30. Mihaljek, Dubravko, Michela Scatigna, and Agustin Villar. 2002. Recent Trends in Bond Markets. BIS Papers No. 11, June-July. Ministry of Finance of Japan. 2006. Guide to Japanese Government Bonds, http://www.mof.go.jp. Mohan, Rakesh. 2004. A Decade of Reforms in Government Securities Market in India and the Road Ahead. RBI Bulletin, November. . 2006. Recent Trends in the Indian Debt Market and Current Initiatives. RBI Bulletin, April.

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Mohanty, M. S. 2001. Improving Liquidity in Government Bond Markets: What Can be Done? BIS Papers No.11. Mu, Huaipeng. 2006. The Development of Chinas Bond Market. BIS Papers No. 26. Nyborg, K.G., K. Rydqvist, and S. Sundaresan. 2002. Bidder Behaviour in Multi-Unit Auctions: Evidence from Swedish Treasury Auctions. Journal of Political Economy, 110 (2): 394-424. Peter, McCray. 1997. Australias Experience with Indexed Bonds. Paper presented at the Investor Forum, New York. Pongpen, Ruengvirayudh, and Sakkapop Panyanukul. 2006. Developing Corporate Bond Market in Asia. BIS Papers No. 26. Reddy, Y. V. 2000. Managing Public Debt and Promoting Debt Markets in India. RBI Bulletin, October. . 2002. Developing Bond Markets in Emerging Economies: Issues and Indian Experience. RBI Bulletin, April. Reserve Bank of India. Annual Report, Various Issues. . 1996. A Review of Internal Debt Management Policy and Operations for the period ended March 1995. RBI Bulletin, November. . 2000. Report on Currency and Finance, 1999-2000. . 2002. Report of the Working Group for Suggesting Operational and Prudential Guidelines on STRIPS (Separately Traded Registered Interest and Principal of Securities), August. . 2003. Report on Currency and Finance, 2001-02. . 2004a. Discussion Paper on Capital Indexed Bonds, May. . 2004b. Report of Working Group on Screen Based Trading In Government Securities (Chairman: Dr. R.H.Patil), Mumbai, November. . 2005. Report of the Internal Technical Group on Central Government Securities Market, Mumbai, July. . 2006a. Report on Currency and Finance, 2004-05. . 2006b. Report of the Committee on Fuller Capital Account Convertibility (Chairman: S.S. Tarapore), July. Ric, Battellino. 2004. Recent Developments in Asian Bond Markets. Talk to the 17th Australasian Finance and Banking Conference, Sydney. Roberto, Blanco. 2001. The Euro-Area Government Securities Markets. Recent Developments and Implications for Market Functioning. Paper prepared for the BIS Autumn Central Bank Economists Meeting. Seongtae, Lee. 2006. Recent Developments in Korean Bond Market. BIS Papers No. 30. Shen, Pu. 1995. Benefits and Limitations of Inflation Indexed Treasury Bonds. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Economic Review, Third Quarter. Tomita, Toshiki. 2002. The Need for Redefining Japans Government Debt Management Policy. NRI Papers, Nomura Research Institute. Toshiro, Muto. 2004. Japans Payment and Settlement System and the Bank of Japan. Minutes of the Meeting Commemorating the 20th Anniversary of the Centre for Financial Industry Information Systems.

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UK, Debt Management Office. 2005. Government Securities: A Guide to gilts. Wang, J.J.D., and J.P. Zender. 2002. Auctioning Divisible Goods. Economic Theory, 19(4): 673-705. Wilson, R.1979. Auctions of Shares. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 93 (4): 675-679. Yun, Hwan Kim. 2001. (ed.) Government Bond Market Development in Asia. Asian Development Bank, Manila. VI. FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET Almekinders, G.J., and C.W.S. Eijffinger. 1994. The Ineffectiveness of Central Bank Intervention. Center for Economic Research, No.94101. Baillie, R., and W.P. Osterberg. 1997. Why Do Central Banks Intervene? Journal of International Money and Finance, 16(6): 909-19. Bank for International Settlements. 2004. Triennial Central Bank Survey on Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity. Becker, T., and A. Sy. 2005. Were Bid-ask Spreads in the Foreign Exchange Market Excessive during the Asian Crisis? IMF Working Paper 05/34, International Monetary Fund. Behera, H.K., V. Narasimhan, and K.N. Murty. 2006. Relationship Between Exchange Rate Volatility and Central Bank Intervention: An Empirical Analysis for India. Paper presented at IGIDR Sixth Annual Conference on Money and Finance in the Indian Economy. Bhaumik, S.K., and H. Mukhopadhyay. 2000. RBIs Intervention in Foreign Exchange Market-An Econometric Analysis. Economic and Political Weekly, 35(5). Bjonnes, H.G., and D. Rime. 2004. Dealer Behavior and Trading Systems in Foreign Exchange Markets. Journal of Financial Economics, September. Bonser-Neal, C. 1996. Does Central Bank Intervention Stabilize Foreign Exchange Rates? Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, First Quarter. Canales-Kriljenko, J.I. 2004. Foreign Exchange Market Organisation in Selected Developing and Transition Economies: Evidence from a Survey. IMF Working Paper No. 4. Cornell, W.B. 1978. Determinants of the Bid-ask Spread on Forward Foreign Exchange Contracts Under Floating Exchange Rates. Journal of International Business Studies, Vol. 9:33-41. Danker, D.J., R.A. Has, D.W. Hendrson, S. Sysmansky, and R. Tryon. 1987. Small Empirical Models of Exchange Market Intervention: Applications to Germany, Japan, and Canada. Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 9:143-173. Dominguez, K.M., and A.J. Frenkel. 1993. Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Matter? The Portfolio Balance Effect. American Economic Review, 83(5). Dominguez, K.M. 1990. Market Responses to Coordinated Central Bank Intervention. Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 32:121-164. Dominguez, K.M. 1998. Central Bank Intervention and Exchange Rate Volatility. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol.17:161-190. Edison, H.J. 1993. The Effectiveness of Central Bank Intervention: A Survey of the Literature after 1982. Princeton Special Papers in International Economics, No. 18, July.

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Executives Meeting of East Asia Pacific Central Banks and Monetary Authorities (EMEAP). 2001. Experience and Practical Issues Concerning Foreign Exchange Operations. EMEAP Study on Exchange Rate Regimes, June. . 2001. Foreign Exchange Settlement Risk in the East Asia-Pacific Region. Report prepared by the EMEAP Working Group on Payments and Settlement Systems, December. Fane, G. 2000. Capital Mobility, Exchange Rates and Economic Crises. London: EE Publication. Fatum, R., and M. Hutchison. 2003. Is Sterilised Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective After All? An Event Study Approach. The Economic Journal, Vol. 113: 390-411. . 1999. Is Intervention a Signal of Future Monetary Policy? Evidence from the Federal Funds Futures Market. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Vol. 31:54-69. Frankel, J. A. 1982. In Search of the Exchange Rate Premium: A Six Currency Test Assuming Meanvariance Optimization. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 1: 255-274. Ghosh, A. 1992. Is it Signaling? Exchange Intervention and Dollar-DM Rate. Journal of International Economics, Vol.12: 201-220. Goodhart, C.A.E., and T. Hesse. 1993. Central Bank Foreign Exchange Intervention Assessed in Continuous Time. Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 12: 368-389. Gopinath, S. 2005. Recent Developments in Foreign Exchange, Money and G-Sec Markets: Account and Outlook. RBI Bulletin, September. Government of India. 1993. The High Level Committee on Balance of Payments (Chairman: Dr. C. Rangarajan), Ministry of Finance, New Delhi. . 2006. Indias External Debt: A Status Report. New Delhi, August. Hartmann, P. 1999. Trading Volumes and Transaction Costs in the Foreign Exchange Market Evidence from Daily Dollar-Yen Spot Data. Journal of Banking and Finance, Vol. 23: 801-824. International Monetary Fund. 2007 World Economic Outlook. April. Jacobson, L.R., 1983. Calculations of Profitability for U.S. Dollar-Deutsche Mark Intervention. Staff Studies 131. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C. September. Jalan, Bimal. 1999. International Financial Architecture: Developing Countries Perspective. RBI Bulletin, October. . 2003. Exchange Rate Management: An Emerging Consensus?. RBI Bulletin, September. Jorion, P. 1996. Risk and Turnover in the Foreign Exchange Market. in The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets (eds.) Frankel, J.A., G. Galli and A. Giovannimi, London: The University of Chicago Press, 19-40. Joshi, H., and M. Saggar. 1998. Excess Returns, Risk Premia and Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Market: Indian Experience in Post Liberalisation Period. RBI Occasional Papers, Vol. 19: 129-152. Jurgenson, P. 1983. Report of the Working Group on Exchange Market Intervention. Washington, D.C., U.S. Dept. of the Treasury, March. Kaminsky, L.G., and K. Lewis. 1996. Does Foreign Exchange Intervention Signal Future Monetary Policy? Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 37: 285312. Khundrakpam, J.K. 2007. Economic Reforms and Exchange Rate Pass-through to Domestic Prices in India. BIS Working Paper No. 225, February.

Kletzer, K., and R. Kohli. 2000. Exchange Rate Dynamics with Financial Repression: A Test of Exchange Rate Models for India. ICRIER Working Paper 52, March. Kohli, R. 2000. Real Exchange Rate Stabilisation and Managed Floating: Exchange Rate Policy in India. 1993-99, ICRIER Working Paper 59, October. Kortian, T.K. 1995. Modern Approaches to Asset Price Formation: A Survey of the Recent Theoretical Literature. Research Discussion Paper, Reserve Bank of Australia, WP 9501. Lewis, K.K. 1995. Are Foreign Exchange Market Intervention and Monetary Policy Related and Does it Really Matter? Journal of Business, Vol. 68: 185-214. . 1988. Testing the Portfolio Balance Model: A Multi-lateral Approach. Journal of International Economics, Vol. 24: 109-127. Lindberg, H. 1994. The Effects of Sterilised Interventions Through the Signalling Channel, Sweden 1986-1990. Sveriges Riksbank Working Paper 19. Lipscomb, L. 2005. An Overview of Non-Deliverable Foreign Exchange Forward Markets. Bank of International Settlements, May. Ma, G., C. Ho, and R.N. McCauley. 2004. The Markets for Non-Deliverable Forwards in Asian Currencies. BIS Quarterly Review, June. Mc Kenzie, M. 2004. An Empirical Examination of the Relation between Central Bank Intervention and Exchange Rate Volatility: Some Australian Evidence. Australian Economic Papers, Vol. 43:59-74. Mohan, Rakesh. 2004. Challenges to Monetary Policy in a Global Context. RBI Bulletin, January. . 2004. Financial Sector Reforms in India: Policies and Performance Analysis. RBI Bulletin, October. . 2005. Some Apparent Puzzles for Contemporary Monetary Policy. RBI Bulletin, December. . 2006a. Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Frameworks: The Indian Experience. RBI Bulletin, June. . 2006b. Monetary and Financial Policy Responses to Global Imbalances. RBI Bulletin, December. . 2006c. Financial Sector Reforms and Monetary Policy: The Indian Experience. RBI Bulletin, July. . 2006d. Avian Influenza Pandemic: Preparedness within the Financial Sector. RBI Bulletin, August. . 2007. Development of Financial Markets in India. Speech delivered at the First Indian-French Financial Forum, Mumbai, May. Mussa, M. 1981. The Role of Official Intervention. Group of Thirty Occasional Papers No.6, New York. Neely, C. J. 2002. The Temporal Pattern of Trading Rule Returns and Central Bank Intervention: Intervention Does Not Generate Technical Trading Rule Profits. Working Papers 2000-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Obstfeld, M. 1990. The Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Intervention-Recent Experience: 19851988. in International Policy Coordination and Exchange Rate Fluctuations (eds.) W.H. Branson, J.A. Frankel and M. Goldstein, Chicago: U. Chicago press. Pattanaik, S., and S. Sahoo. 2001. The Effectiveness of Intervention in India: An Empirical Assessment. RBI Occasional Papers, Vol. 22, June. Ranade, A., and G. Kapur. 2003. Appreciating Rupee: Changing Paradigm?. Economic and Political Weekly, February.

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Ranjan, R., and S.C. Dhal. 1999. Testing for the Impact of Cross-Currency Volatility on the Indian Rupee. RBI Occasional Papers, 35(5). RBI, Mumbai. Reddy, Y.V. 1997. Exchange Rate Management: Dilemmas. RBI Bulletin, April. . 2003. Global Economy and Financial Markets. RBI Bulletin, October. . 2005. Indian Economy: Current Status and Select Issues. RBI Bulletin, February. . 2006a. Financial Sector Reform and Financial Stability. RBI Bulletin, March. . 2006b. Global Imbalances: An Indian Perspective. RBI Bulletin, June. . 2006c. India in Emerging Asia. RBI Bulletin, June. . 2006d. Foreign Exchange Reserves: New Realities and Options. RBI Bulletin, October. . 2006e. Central Bank Communications: Some Random Thoughts. RBI Bulletin, February. . 2007. Point of View: Converting a Tiger. Finance and Development, International Monetary Fund, Vol. 44, March. Reserve Bank of India. 2006. Report of the Committee on Fuller Capital Account Convertibility (Chairman: S.S. Tarapore). . 1995. Report of the Expert Group on Foreign Exchange Markets in India (Chairman: O.P. Sodhani), June. . 1997. Report of the Committee on Capital Account Convertibility (Chairman: S.S. Tarapore). . 2000. Report on Currency and Finance. 1999-00. . 2003. Report on Currency and Finance. 2002-03. . 2004. Report on Currency and Finance. 2003-04. . 2005. Report of the Internal Technical Group on Foreign Exchange Markets. Rogoff, K. 1984. On the Effects of Sterilized Intervention: An Analysis of Weekly Data. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 14: 133150. Sahadevan, K. 2002. Foreign Exchange Intervention and Future Monetary Policy: Some Empirical Evidence on Signaling Hypothesis. ICFAI Journal of Applied Finance, Vol. 8. Sarno, L., and M. Taylor. 2001. Official Intervention In The Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 39: 839-868. Sharma, A.K., and A. Mitra. 2006. What Drives Forward Premia in the Indian Foreign Exchange Market? RBI Occasional Papers, 27 (1 and 2). Tauchen, G., and M. Pitts. 1983. The Price Variability-Volume Relationship in Speculative Markets. Econometrica, Vol. 51:485-505. Taylor, D. 1982. Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market or Bet Against the Central Bank. The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 90: 356-368. Udeshi, K.J. 2004. Development of Forex Markets in India: Review and Prospects. RBI Bulletin, September. Unnikrishnan, N.K., and P.R. Ravi Mohan. 2001. Exchange Rate Dynamics: An Indian Perspective. RBI Occasional Papers, June.

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VII. EQUITY AND CORPORATE DEBT MARKET Allen, F., R. Chakrabarti, De, Sankar, Qian, Jun, and Meijun Qian. 2006. Financing Firms in India. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 3975, August. Allen, F., and D. Gale. 1999. Comparing Financial Systems. Cambridge: MIT Press. Bandiera, Oriana, Gerard Caprio, Patrick Honohan, and Fabrio Schiantarselli. 2000. Does Financial Reform Raise or Reduce Savings? Review of Economics and Statistics, 82(2): 239-63. Bank for International Settlements. 2006. Developing Corporate Bond Markets in Asia. BIS Papers, No. 26, February. Beck, Thorsten, Ross Levine, and Narsan Loayzo. 2000. Finance and the Sources of Growth. Journal of Financial Economics, 58 (1&2): 261-300. Beck, Thorsten, and Ross Levine. 2003. Stock Markets, Banks and Growth: Panel Evidence. Journal of Banking and Finance, September. Bose, Sushismita, and Dipankor Coondoo. 2003. A Study of Indian Corporate Bond Market. Money and Finance, ICRA Bulletin, January-March. Cho, Y. 1986. Inefficiencies from Financial Liberalisation in the Absence of Well-Functioning Equity Markets. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 18 (2): 191-199. . 1999. Indian Capital Markets: Recent Development and Policy Issues. Songang University, Working Paper No. 99-01. Christoffersen, P., and T. Slok. 2000. Do Asset Prices in Transition Countries Contain Information About Future Economic Activity? IMF Working Paper, WP/00/103, June. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli, and Vojislav Maksimovic. 1998. Law, Finance and Firm Growth. Journal of Finance, 53(6): 2107-37, December. Endo, Tadashi. 2004. Debt Market Development in Emerging Economies: Major Issues and Challenges. World Bank Seminar in Colombo, June 9. Fratzscher, Oliver. 2006. Emerging Derivative Markets in Asia. Chapter for EAP Flagship on Asian Financial Market Development, The World Bank, March. Government of India. Economic Survey, Various Issues. Gyntelberg, J., and Eli M. Remolana. 2006. Securitisation in Asia and the Pacific: Implications for Liquidity and Credit Risks. BIS Quarterly Review, 65-75, June. International Monetary Fund. 2000. World Economic Outlook, May. . 2005. Global Financial Stability Report, April. IOSCO. 2002. The Development of Corporate Bond Markets in Emerging Market Countries. May. Levine, Ross, and Sara Zervos. 1998. Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth. American Economic Review, 88(3):537-58, June. Levine, Ross. 1997. Financial Development and Economic Growth: Views and Agenda. Journal of Economic Literature, 35(2):688-726, June. . 2003. More on Finance and Growth: More Finance, More Growth? Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 31-46, July/August.

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Li, Kai. 2007. The Growth of Equity Market Size and Trading Activity: An International Study. Journal of Empirical Finance, Vol. 14: 59-90. Ludwig, A., and T. Slok. 2002. The Impact of Changes in Stock Prices and House Prices on Consumption in OECD countries. IMF Working Paper, WP/02/1, January. Luengnaruemitchai, P., and Li Lian Ong. 2005. An Anatomy of Corporate Bond Markets: Growing Pains and Knowledge Gains. IMF Working Paper, WP/05/152, July. Mckinsey. 2006. Accelerating Indias Growth Through Financial System Reforms. May. Mohan, Rakesh. 2004a. Financing for Industrial Growth. RBI Bulletin, March. . 2004b. Debt Markets in India Issues and Prospects. RBI Bulletin, December. . 2006a. Recent Trends in the Indian Debt Market and Current Initiatives. RBI Bulletin, April. . 2006b. Financial Sector Reforms and Monetary Policy: The Indian Experience. RBI Bulletin, July. Nagaishi, M. 1999. Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: Dubious Relationship. Economic and Political Weekly, 17-23, July. Nagaraj, R. 1996. Indian Capital Market Growth: Trends, Explanations and Evidences. Economic and Political Weekly, Vol.33:14-20, March. National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. 2005. Indian Securities Market A Review. Volume VIII. . 2006. NSE Fact Book. Patil, R. H. 2004. Corporate Debt Market: New Beginnings. Economic and Political Weekly, March 20, 1237-1246. . 2005. Report of the High Level Expert Committee on Corporate Debt and Securitisation, December. Purfield, Catriona, Hiroko Oura, Charles F. Kramer, and Andreas Jobst. 2006. Asian Equity Markets: Growth, Opportunities, and Challenges. IMF Working Paper, WP/06/266, December. Rajan, Raghuram. G., and L. Zingales. 1998. Financial Dependence and Growth. American Economic Review, Vol. 88: 559-586. Reddy, Y.V. 2005. Banks and Corporates as Partners in Progress. RBI Bulletin, November. . 2002. Developing Bond Markets in Emerging Economies: Issues and Indian Experience. RBI Bulletin, April. Reserve Bank of India. 2004. Report on Currency and Finance, 2003-04. . 2006. Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Economy, 2005-06. Romer, C. 1990. The Great Crash and the Onset of the Great Depression. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 105: 597-624. Rousseau, Peter L., and Paul Wachtel. 2000. Equity Markets and Growth: Cross-country Evidence on Timing and Outcomes, 1980-1995. Journal of Banking and Finance, 24(12): 1933-57, December. Sakakibara, Eisuke. 2001. A Brief Overview: Creation of Asian Bond Market. in Bond Market Development in Asia, Proceedings of Round Table on Capital Market Reforms in Asia, Asian Development Bank Institute. Securities and Exchange Board of India. 2003. SEBI-NCAER Survey of Indian Investors, March. . 2006. Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Securities Market, December.

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Shah, Ajay. 1995. The Indian IPO Market: Empirical Facts - Technical Report. Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, June. Shah, A., and Susan Thomas. 1997. Securities Markets : Towards Greater Efficiency. India Development Report, Oxford University Press. Singh, A. 1995. Corporate Financial Patterns in Industrialising Economies. Technical Paper, International Finance Corporation, Washington, D.C. . 1997. Financial Liberalisation, Stock Markets and Economic Development. The Economic Journal, 107(442): 771-782, May. Society for Capital Market Research and Development. 2005. Indian Household Investors Survey The Changing Market Environment, Investors Preferences, Problems, Policy Issues. June. Takagi, Shinji. 2001. Developing a Viable Corporate Bond Market under a Bank-Dominated System Analytical Issues and Policy Implications. in Bond Market Development in Asia, Proceedings of Round Table on Capital Market Reforms in Asia, Asian Development Bank Institute. The World Bank. 2004. Report on the Observance of Standards and Codes (ROSC) - Corporate Governance Country Assessment: India. Working Paper No. 2004/04/01. The World Bank. 2006a. Global Development Finance, Washington D.C. . 2006b. Doing Business 2007 : How to Reform, September. World Federation of Exchanges. www.fibv.org. VIII. FINANCIAL MARKET INTEGRATION Agenor, P. R. 2001. Benefits and Costs of International Financial Integration. Paper for the Conference on Financial Globalisation: Issues and Challenges for Small States. Saint Kitts. March 27-28. Bank for International Settlements. 2006. Regional Financial Integration in Emerging Markets: Trends and Policy Challenges. Unpublished Paper. Bekaert, Geert, Min Wei and Yuhang Xing. 2002. Uncovered Interest Parity and the Term Structure. NBER Working Paper 8795. Bhagwati, Jagdish. 1998. The Capital Myth: The Difference between Trade in Widgets and Trade in Dollars. Foreign Affairs, Vol. 77: 7-12. Bhoi, B. K., and S. C. Dhal. 1998. Integration of Financial Markets in India: An Empirical Evaluation. RBI Occasional Papers, 19(4). December. Blinder, A.S. 2004. The Quiet Revolution: Central Banking Goes Modern. London: York University Press. Brewer, T. L., and S. Nollen. 2000. Direct Investment and Portfolio Flows to Developing Countries. World Bank. Caprio, Gerard, and Patrick Honhan. 1999. Restoring Banking Stability: Beyond Supervised Capital Markets. Brookings Paper on Economic Activity, Vol.1:143-80. Chinn. M. D. and Meredith G. 2002. Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era. Working Paper, University of California. Chuhan, P., G. Perez-Quiros, and H. Popper. 1996. International Capital Flows: Do Short-term Investment and Direct Investment Differ? PRE Working Paper No. 1669, World Bank.

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Cournot, Augustin. 1927. Researches into the Mathematical Principles of the Theory of Wealth. trans. by Nathaniel T. Bacon. New York: Macmillan. Dadush, U., D. Dasgupta, and D. Ratha. 2000. The Role of Short-term Debt in Recent Crises. Finance and Development, Vol. 37:54-57. Fama, Eugene, F. 1984. Forward and Spot Exchange Rates. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 14. Flood, Robert, P., and Andrew K. Rose. 2002. Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis. IMF Staff Papers, 49(2). Froot, Kenneth, A., and H. Richarh Thaler. 1990. Anomalies: Foreign Exchange. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 49(3). Giannetti, M. Guiso, L. Jappelli, M. Padula, and M. Pagano. 2002. Financial Market Integration, Corporate Financing and Economic Growth. European Commission. Government of India. 2005. Report of High Level Expert Committee on Corporate Bonds and Securitisation (Chairman: Dr. R.H. Patil). Isard, Peter. 1995. Exchange Rate Economics, Cambridge University Press. Joshi, H., and M. Saggar. 1998. Excess Returns, Risk-Premia and Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Market: Indian Experience in the Post Liberalisation Period. RBI Occasional Papers, 19(2), June. Kim, Soyoung, and Nouriel Roubini. 2000. Exchange Rate Anomalies in the Industrial Countries: A Solution with a Structural VAR Approach. Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 45. Kose, M. A., E. Prasad, K. Rogoff, and Shang-Jin Wei. 2006. Financial Globalisation: A Reappraisal. IMF Working Paper, WP/06/189. Lane, P.R. and G. M.M. Ferretti. 2006. The External Wealth of Nations: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities 1970-2004. IMF Working Paper No. 69. Levine, Ross. 1996. Foreign Banks, Financial Development and Economic Growth. International Financial Markets. (ed.) by Claude E. Barfield. Washington DC: American Enterprise Institute Press. Levine, Ross. 2001. International Financial Integration and Economic Growth. Review of International Economics, Vol. 9. Marshall, Alfred. 1930. Principles of Economics: An Introductory Volume. 8th ed. London: Macmillan. Mehra, R., and E.C. Prescott. 1985. The Equity Premium: A Puzzle. Journal of Monetary Economics, 15(2). Meredith, Guy, and Yue Ma. 2002. The Forward Premium Puzzle Revisited. IMF Working Paper. Mohan, Rakesh. 2004a. Challenges to Monetary Policy in a Globalising Context. RBI Bulletin, January. . 2004b. Financial Sector Reforms in India: Policies and Performance Analysis. RBI Bulletin, October. . 2005. Globalisation, Financial Markets and the Operation of Monetary Policy in India. BIS Papers No 23. . 2006. Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Frameworks: The Indian Experience. RBI Bulletin, June. . 2007. Monetary Policy Transmission in India. RBI Bulletin, April. Pattnaik, R. K., Muneesh Kapur, and S, C. Dhal. 2003. Exchange Rate Policy and Management: The Indian Experience. Economic and Political Weekly, May 31. Prasad, Eswar, K. Rogoff, Shang-Jin Wei and A. Kose. 2003. Effects of Financial Globalisation on Developing Countries: Some New Evidence. IMF Occasional Paper 220. . 2006. The Macroeconomic Implications of Financial Globalisation. Journal of Economic Literature.

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Ptursson, T G. 2001. The Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy: Analysing the Financial Market Pass-Through. Working Papers No. 14. Central Bank of Iceland. Reddy, Y. V. 1999. Financial Sector Reforms: Review and Prospects. RBI Bulletin, January. . 2002. Dimensions of Financial Development, Market Reforms and Integration: The Indian Experience. In Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy: Issues for a Reforming Economy, (eds.) M.S. Ahluwalia, Bimal Jalan and S. S. Tarapore, New Delhi : Oxford University Press. . 2003. The Global Economy and Financial Markets: Outlook, Risks and Policy Responses. RBI Bulletin, October. . 2005a. Overcoming Challenges in a Globalised Economy. RBI Bulletin, July. . 2005b. Implications of Global Financial Imbalances for the Emerging Market Economies. RBI Bulletin, December. . 2005c. Globalisation of Monetary Policy and Indian Experience. RBI Bulletin, July. . 2005d. Annual Policy Statement for the year 2005-06. Reserve Bank of India, April. . 2006a. Reforming Indias Financial Sector: Changing Dimensions and Emerging Issues. RBI Bulletin, June. . 2006b. Globalisation, Money and Finance: Uncertainties and Dilemmas. RBI Bulletin, October. Reserve Bank of India. 2001. Report on Currency and Finance, 1999-2000. . 2006. Report of the Committee on Fuller Capital Account Convertibility (Chairman: S. S. Tarapore), Mumbai. Rodrik, Dani. 1998. Who Needs Capital Account Convertibility? Harvard University, Mimeo. Sarno, Lucio, and Mark P. Taylor. 1999. Hot Money, Accounting Labels and the Permanence of Capital Flows to Developing Countries: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 59: 337-64. Sharpe, William F. 1964. Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk. Journal of Finance, 19 (3). Stiglitz, Joseph. 2002. Globalisation and its Discontents. New York: Norton. Sundararajan, V., Cem Karacadag, and Jennifer Elliott. 2003. Financial Market Development: Sequencing of Reforms to Ensure Stability. Fifth Annual Financial Markets and Development Conference, Organized by the Brookings Institution, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank. Tobin J. 1958. Estimation of Relationship for Limited Dependent Variables. Econometrica, January. Trichet, J.C. 2005. European Financial Integration. Speech delivered at 10th Symposium on Finance, Banking, and Insurance, University of Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, December 16. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. 2006. World Investment Report. United States Agency for International Development. 1998. Financial Markets Development. USAID Policy Paper. Wadhwani, Sushil. 1999. Currency Puzzles. Lecture Given at the London School of Economics. September. World Bank. 2000. Global Development Finance. New York. . 2006. Global Development Finance. New York.

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IX. OVERALL ASSESSMENT Geithner, Timothy F. 2007. Liquidity and Financial Markets. BIS Review, Vol.19. Lipschitz, Leslie. 2007. Wising Up about Finance. Finance and Development, 44(1). March. Mohan, Rakesh. 2004. Challenges to Monetary Policy in a Globalising Context. RBI Bulletin, January. . 2006a. Coping with Liquidity Management: A Practitioners View. RBI Bulletin, April. . 2006b. Evolution of Central Banking in India. RBI Bulletin, June. . 2006c. Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Frameworks: The Indian Experience. RBI Bulletin, June. . 2007a. Current Challenges to Monetary Policy Making in India. RBI Bulletin, March. . 2007b. Monetary Policy Transmission in India. Paper presented at the BIS Deputy Governors Meeting on Transmission Mechanisms for Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies What is New? RBI Bulletin, April. Rajan, Raghuram G., 2005. Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier? NBER Working Paper 11278. Reddy, Y.V. 2004. Financial Stability: Indian Experience. RBI Bulletin, July. . 2007a. Point of View: Converting a Tiger. Finance and Development, 44(1), March. . 2007b. Globalisation and Monetary Policy: Some Emerging Issues. RBI Bulletin, April. Reserve Bank of India. 2006. Report of the Committee on Fuller Capital Account Convertibility. (Chairman: S. S. Tarapore). . 2007. Third Quarter Review of the Annual Statement on Monetary Policy for the year 2006-07. January.

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