PSQT Tutorial
PSQT Tutorial
PSQT Tutorial
HONORS
TUTORIAL WORKBOOK
21MT2103RA Probability Statistics and Queueing Theory
TEAM PSQT
KLEF
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Probability Statistics and Queueing Theory - 21MT2103RA
TUTORIAL WORKBOOK
STUDENT NAME
REG.NO.
YEAR
SEMESTER
SECTION
FACULTY
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Contents
Organization of the STUDENT TUTORIAL WORKBOOK .................................................. 4
Discussion on SAS software for solving PSQT course problems and Demonstrate Probability:
Sample Space and Events #1. ................................................................................................ 6
Learning outcomes: ....................................................................................... 6
Pre-TUTORIAL Task:................................................... 6
In-TUTORIAL Task:..................................................... 8
Post-TUTORIAL Task: ................................................. 10
Demonstrate Probability and bayes formula#2. ................................................................. 12
Learning outcomes: ................................................................................... 12
Pre-TUTORIAL Task:................................................... 12
In-TUTORIAL Task:..................................................... 14
Post-TUTORIAL Task: .................................................. 16
Demonstrate Random variable, PDF and CDF #3 ............................................................. 18
Learning out comes: ................................................................................... 18
Pre-TUTORIAL Task:.................................................... 18
In-TUTORIAL Task:...................................................... 20
Post-TUTORIAL Task: ...................................................22
Demonstrate Discrete and continuous RVs and Distributions #4 ................................... 24
d
Pre-TUTORIAL Task:............................................................. 72
In-TUTORIAL Task:............................................................... 74
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The Tutorial framework includes a creative element but shifts the time-intensive aspects outside of the One-Hour closed Tutorial period.
Within this structure, each Tutorial includes three parts: Pre-Tutorial, In-Tutorial, Post-Tutorial.
a. Pre-Tutorial
After the theory class and before the actual tutorial session, the student should revise the theoretical concept learned in Lecture class.
The student should answer the questions regarding basic concepts.
b. In-Tutorial
The In-Tutorial section takes place during the actual Tutorial period. The First hour of the Tutorial period can be used to resolve any
problems the students might have experienced. The intent is to give constructive feedback so that students leave the Tutorial hour with
working and solving problems - a significant accomplishment on their part.
c. Post-Tutorial
The last phase of each Tutorial is a homework assignment that is done following the Tutorial period. In the Post-Tutorial, students
analyze the efficiency or utility of a given system call. Each Post-Tutorial exercise should take roughly 120 minutes to complete.
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Tutorial 1:
• Discussion on SAS software for solving PSQT course problems
• Demonstrate Probability: Sample Space and Events
Learning outcomes:
PRE-TUTORIAL
Solution:
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2. A fair die is thrown. Write the set of outcomes associated with the following events:
(i) A: a number less than 7
(ii) B: a number greater than 7
(iii) C: a multiple of 3
(iv) D: a number less than 4
(v) E: an even number greater than 4
(vi) F: a number not less than 3
Solution:
Solution:
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IN-TUTORIAL:
Solution:
Solution:
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3. The probability that an American industry will locate in shanghai, China is 0.7, the probability that it
will locate in Beijing, China is 0.4, and the probability it will locate in either shanghai or Beijing or
both is 0.8. Determine the probability that the industry will locate
i) in both cities ii) In neither city iii) in only one city iv) only in Shanghai
v) only in Beijing
Solution:
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POST-TUTORIAL
1. Following the example of Q1 of IN-TUTORIAL section, write a SAS code to 'print' the data of
the marks your friend obtained in standard X. The data should contain the course name, maximum
mark and mark obtained. The data should have at least 3 records.
Solution:
2. The following frequency table shows the classification of 58 landfills in a state according to their
concentration of the three hazardous chemicals arsenic, barium, and mercury.
Barium
High Low
Mercury Mercury
High Low High Low
Arsenic High 1 3 5 9
Low 4 8 10 18
Solution:
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Date of Evaluation
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Tutorial 2:
Learning outcomes:
PRE-TUTORIAL
1. Three cards are drawn in succession, without replacement, from an ordinary deck of playing cards.
Find the probability that the events A1 A2 A3 occurs where A1 is the event that the first card is
red ace, A2 is the event that the second card is a 10 or a jack, and A3 is the event that the third card is
greater than 3 but less than 7.
Solution:
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2. Show the relation between Conditional Probability and Bayes Theorem.
Solution:
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IN-TUTORIAL:
1. Suppose there are 4 red, 6 blue and 2 green balls in a bag. Two balls are drawn at random
from the bag “without replacement”. Find the probability of that the two balls drawn are red.
Solution:
2. Police plan to enforce speed limits by using radar traps at 4 different locations within the city
limits. The radar traps at each of the location L1 , L2 , L3 , and L4 are operated 40%, 30%, 20% and
10% of the time and if a person who is speeding on his way to work has probabilities of 0.2, 0.1,
0.5 and 0.2 respectively, of passing through these locations, what is the probability that he will
receive a speeding ticket?
Solution:
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3. A Covid test kit was given to people in a particular area, then Covid positive was verified through
blood tests. The following table shows the covid test results. Find
a) P (not Covid | positive test result)
b) P (positive test result | not Covid)
Not Covid 5 14 19
Total 75 18 93
Solution:
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POST-TUTORIAL
1. Three companies A, B and C supply 25%, 35% and 40% of the notebooks to a school.
Past experience shows that 5%, 4% and 2% of the notebooks produced by these companies
are defective. If a notebook was found to be defective, what is the probability that the
notebook was supplied by A?
Solution:
2. At an electronic plant, it is known from past experience that the probability is 0.83 that a new worker
who has attended the company’s training program will meet the production quota and that the
corresponding probability is 0.35 for a new worker who has not attended the company’s training
program. If 80% of all new workers attend the training program. What is the probability that a new
worker will meet the production quota?
Solution:
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Date of Evaluation
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Tutorial 3:
Demonstrate discrete and continuous Random Variables, Probability Distribution Functions
Learning outcomes:
PRE-TUTORIAL
1. What is the relation between probability distribution function and cumulative distribution
function?
Solution:
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2. From a box containing 4 black balls and 2 green balls, 3 balls are drawn in succession, each ball
being replaced in the box before the next draw is made. Find the probability distribution for the number
of green balls.
Solution:
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IN-TUTORIAL:
1. In SAS programming environment, compare the outputs of CDF function and the
PROBNORM function for a Standard normal variate (Mean=0, Variance=1).
Solution:
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2. How do you create a random variable in SAS? Write a SAS code to generate a single random
variable in SAS between 1 and 10:
Solution:
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POST-TUTORIAL
1. Determine the value of c so that each of the following functions can serves as a probability distribution
of the discrete random variable X and also find Cumulative distribution function.
ax, 0 ≤ x ≤ 1
f(x) = { a, 1 ≤ x ≤ 2
−ax + 3a, 2≤x≤3
i) Determine a ii) Compute P(X≤1.5).
Solution:
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Date of Evaluation
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Tutorial 4:
Demonstration of Discrete Probability distributions
Learning outcomes:
● Outcome related to understanding of discrete random variables and Probability Mass Function
● Outcome related to understanding of continuous random variables and Probability Density
Function
PRE-TUTORIAL
Solution:
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2) It is conjectured that an impurity exists in 30% of all drinking wells in a certain rural community. In
order to gain some insight on this problem, it is determined that some tests should be made. It is too
expensive to test all of the wells in the area, so 10 were randomly selected for testing,
i) Using the binomial distribution, what is the probability that exactly 3 wells have the
impurity assuming that the conjecture is correct?
ii) What is the probability that more than 3 wells are impure?
iii) What is the probability that not more than 2 wells are pure?
Solution:
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IN-TUTORIAL:
1. The number of customers arriving at a grocery store is a Poisson random variable. On average 10
customers arrive per hour. Let X be the number of customers arriving from 10am to 11:30am. What
is P(10<X≤15)?
Solution:
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2. Write a SAS code to generate data from a Poisson distribution with the value of the parameter λ
equal to 4. Plot a bar chart of the probability distribution and comment on the shape of the distribution.
Then, double the value of λ and replot. Compare the two plots.
Solution:
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POST-TUTORIAL
1. Write a SAS code that generates 10 random samples of a poison distribution with lambda=4, and
plot a bar graph of the probability mass function using sgplot procedure.
Solution:
2. Write a SAS code that generates 10 random samples of a Binomial distribution n=8, p=0.60 and
plot a bar graph of the probability mass function using sgplot procedure.
Solution:
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Date of Evaluation
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Tutorial 5:
Demonstration of Expectation of discrete and continuous random variables
Demonstration of Expectation of a function of a random variable.
Learning outcomes:
PRE-TUTORIAL
Solution:
2. Write the formula for the expectation and variance function of a discrete and continuous random
variable.
Solution:
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IN-TUTORIAL:
1. Six men and five women apply for an executive position in a small company. Two
of the applicants are selected for an interview. Let X denote the number of women
in the interview pool. We have found the probability mass function of X.
Solution:
2. If A dealer’s profit in units of $5000, on a new automobile can be looked upon as a random variable
X having the density function
2(1 − x) 0 x 1
f ( x) =
0 elsewhere
Solution:
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3. Compute the expectation of X2 where X is a random variable with the following probability density
function:
Solution:
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POST-TUTORIAL
1. Determine the mean (i.e., E[X] ) and E[X2] of a discrete random variable X whose Cumulative
Probability Distribution (CDF) function is given below:
Solution:
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2. The random variable X representing the number of errors per 100 lines of software code has the
following probability distribution:
X 2 3 4 5 6
f(x) 0.01 0.25 0.4 0.3 0.04
Solution:
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Date of Evaluation
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Tutorial 6:
Demonstrate Continuous probability distribution and joint random variables.
Date of the Session: // Time of the Session: to
Learning outcomes:
PRE-TUTORIAL
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2. The Heights of 1000 students are normally distributed with a mean of 174.5cm and a standard
deviation of 6.9 cm. assuming that the heights are recorded to the nearest half-cm, how many of these
students would you expect to have heights
a) less than 160.0 cms?
b) between 171.5 and 182.0 cms inclusive?
c) equal to 175.0cm?
d) greater than or equal to 188.0cms.
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IN-TUTORIAL:
1. Write a SAS code to generate data from a Normal distribution with the following values of the
parameters:
𝜇 = 0, 𝜎 = 1
Plot the curve of the probability density function and comment on the shape of the distribution.
Then, double the value of 𝜎 (standard deviation) and replot after running the edited code.
Then, change the value of the 𝜇 (mean) to -5.0 and replot after running the edited code.
Compare the three graphs.
Solution:
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2. Assume that the pair of dice is thrown, and the random variable X is the sum of numbers
that appears on two dice. Find the mean or the expectation of the random variable X .
Solution:
3. The density function of the time Z in minutes between calls to an electrical supply store is given by
1 −𝑧
𝑓(𝑍) = { 𝑒 10 , 0<𝑧<∞
10
0, 𝑒𝑙𝑠𝑒𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒
a) What are the mean and variance of time between calls?
b) What is the probability that the time between calls exceeds the mean?
c) What is the probability that the time between calls is less than 5 minutes?
Solution:
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POST-TUTORIAL
1. How to use a SAS data step to obtain an approximate-sized random sample without
replacement. Specifically, the program uses the ranuni function and a WHERE statement to
tell SAS to randomly sample approximately 30% of the 50 observations from the permanent
SAS data set mailing.
Solution:
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Date of Evaluation
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Tutorial 7:
Demonstrate Sample and population, Measures of central tendency: Mean, Median, Mode
Demonstrate Measure of Dispersion: Variance, Standard deviation, coefficient of variation.
Learning outcomes:
• Understand Sample and population, Measures of central tendency: Mean, Median, Mode
• Understand the Measure of Dispersion
PRE-TUTORIAL
• Population in Statistics.
• Sampling
• Mean
• Median
• Mode
Solution:
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2. Let's consider the data: 56, 67, 54, 34, 78, 43, 23. What is the median?
b. Find the mode of the given data:
c. A student has gotten the following grades on his tests: 87, 95, 76, and 88. He wants an 85 or
better overall. What is the minimum grade he must get on the last test in order to achieve that
average?
Solution:
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IN-TUTORIAL:
1. Using the SAS data set College, compute the mean, median, minimum, and maximum and the
number of both missing and non-missing values for the variables ClassRank and GPA. Report the
statistics to two decimal places.
Solution:
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2. Repeat Problem 1, except compute the desired statistics for each combination of Gender
School Size. Do this twice, once using a BY statement, and once using a CLASS statement.
Solution:
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POST-TUTORIAL
1. Using the SAS data set College, report the mean and median GPA and ClassRank broken down by
school size (SchoolSize). Do this twice, once using a BY statement, and once using a CLASS
statement.
Solution:
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Date of Evaluation
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Tutorial 8:
Correlation and Linear regression
Confidence limits and intervals, Statistical tests of significance: Null and Alternate Hypothesis
Learning outcomes:
PRE-TUTORIAL
Solution:
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2. The marks secured by recruits in the selection test (X) and in the proficiency test (Y) are given
below:
X 10 15 12 17 13 16 24
Y 30 42 45 46 33 34 40
Solution:
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IN-TUTORIAL:
1. Calculate the correlation coefficient between variables in the SAS built-in dataset called Fish,
which contains various measurements for 159 different fish caught in a lake in Finland. Assume
that there are just 2 variables (features) in the dataset.
Solution:
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2 Determine a simple linear regression model using hours as the predictor variable and score as the
response variable for a dataset that contains the total hours studied and final exam score for 15
students
Solution:
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Post Tutorial
set Solution:
Date of Evaluation
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Tutorial 9:
• Demonstrate t-test, Chi Square Test
• Demonstrate ANOVA
Date of the Session: // Time of the Session: to
Learning outcomes:
• Understand clearly what t-test is, and Chi Square Test is and where it can be implemented
• Understand clearly what ANOVA is
PRE-TUTORIAL
1. A manufacturer of sports equipment has developed a new synthetic fishing line that he claims has a
mean breaking strength of 8 kilograms with a standard deviation of 0.5 kilogram. Test the hypothesis
that = 8 kilograms against the alternative that 8 kilograms if a random sample of 50 lines is tested
and found to have a mean breaking strength of 7.8 kilograms. Use a 0.01 level of significance.
Solution:
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2. Consider the data which contains the variables WBEFORE and WAFTER (before
and after weight on a diet) for eight subjects. Find The appropriate analysis for this
data using paired t-test. Find the calculations for this test that can be performed by
using the SAS code.
W BEFORE W AFTER
200 185
175 154
188 176
198 193
197 198
310 275
245 224
202 188
Solution:
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IN-TUTORIAL:
The test scores for each of the 15 students are shown below:
Solution:
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2. A shop owner claims that an equal number of customers come into his shop each weekday. To test this
hypothesis, a researcher records the number of customers that come into the shop in a given week and
finds the following:
Monday: 50 customers
Tuesday: 60 customers
Wednesday: 40 customers
Thursday: 47 customers
Friday: 53 customers
Use the following steps to perform a Chi-Square goodness of fit test in SAS to determine if the data
is consistent with the shop owner’s claim.
Solution:
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POST-TUTORIAL
1. Suppose a researcher recruits 30 students to participate in a study. The students are randomly
assigned to use one of three studying methods to prepare for an exam. Determine whether or not
there is a statistically significant difference between the means of three or more independent
groups. What would be the outcome of the statistical test conducted by the Professor?
Solution:
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3. The mean weekly sales of soap bars in departmental store were 146.3 bars per store. After an
advertising campaign the mean weekly sales in 22 stores for a typical week increased to 153.7 and
showed a standard deviation of 17.2 Was the advertising campaign successful?
Solution:
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Date of Evaluation
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Tutorial 10:
1. Demonstrate Introduction to queues, measures of system performance
2. Demonstrate Characteristics of queueing systems. Stochastic processes overview
Learning outcomes:
PRE-TUTORIAL
1. Define queue and also write down the various performance measures of a queueing
system.
Solution:
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2. Discuss the concept of queue discipline and waiting time.
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IN-TUTORIAL:
1. Customers arrive at a reception counter at an average interval rate of 10 minutes and the receptionist
takes an average of 6 minutes for one customer. Determine the average queue length.
Solution:
2. At a workstation, 5 jobs arrive every minute. The mean time spent on each job in the workstation
is 1/8 minute. Determine the mean number of jobs in the system.
Solution:
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POST-TUTORIAL
1. A monitor on a disk server showed that the average time to satisfy an I/O request was 100
milliseconds. The I/O rate was about 100 requests per second. What was the mean number of requests
at the disk server?
Solution:
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Date of Evaluation
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Tutorial 11:
Demonstrate Discrete-time Markov chains, Continuous-time Markov chain
Demonstrate Birth-death processes, Poisson process and exponential distribution
Date of the Session: // Time of the Session: to
Learning outcomes:
PRE-TUTORIAL
1. Define the concepts of Discrete-time and Continuous-time Markov chain using an example.
Solution:
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2. What is the relationship between exponential and Poisson distribution?
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IN-TUTORIAL:
Solution:
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2. Implement the Poisson process and exponential distribution using SAS programming
Solution:
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3. Research analyzing brand switching between different airlines, operating on the Delhi-Mumbai
route by frequent fliers. On the basis of the data collected by her, the researcher has developed the
following transition probability matrix.
To airline
AA 0.9 .03 0.07
From airline BB 0.15 0.80 0.05
CC 0.20 0.30 0.50
It is found that currently the airlines AA, BB and CC have 20%, 50% and 30% of the market
respectively.
i) Obtain the market share for each airline in two moths time, and
ii) Calculate the long run market share for each time.
Solution:
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POST-TUTORIAL
1. List out various applications of Discrete-time and continuous- time Markov chains concepts in real
world scenarios.
Solution:
2. A salesman territory consists of cities A, B and C. He never sells in the same city on successive days.
If he sells in city A, then the next day he sells in city B. However, if he sells in either B or C, then the
next day he is twice as likely to sell in city A as in other city. In the long run how often does he sell in
each cites.
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Date of Evaluation
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Probability Statistics and Queueing Theory - 21MT2103RA
Tutorial 12:
• Birth-death queueing systems
• Non-birth-death Markovian queueing systems, Queueing networks
Learning outcomes:
• Understand the theory and equations for calculating Expected number of customers in a
M/M/1 queue
• Understand Non-birth-death Markovian queueing systems
PRE-TUTORIAL
1. A maintenance service facility has Poisson arrival rates, negative exponential service times, and
operates on a first-come first-served queue discipline. Breakdowns occur on an average of three per day
with a range of zero to eight. The maintenance crew can service on an average six machines per day
with a range from zero to service. Find the
i) utilization factor of the service facility,
ii) mean time in the system,
iii) mean number in the system in Break down or repair,
iv) mean waiting time in the queue,
v) probability of finding two machines in the system.
vi) expected number in the queue.
1 1
Answer: (i) = 50% (ii) Ws = per day (iii) Ls = 1 machine, (iv) W1 = per day
3 6
1
(v) P2 = 0.125, (iv) Lq = machine
2
Solution:
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2. For the Non-Birth-Death Queueing Model MX /M/1 (Bulk Arrival Queues), derive the formula “Ls”
which is expected number of customers in a system.
Solution:
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IN-TUTORIAL:
1. A service center consists of 2 servers, each working at an exponential rate of 2 services per hour.
If customers arrive at a Poisson rate of 3 per hour, then, assuming the system capacity is at most 3
customers,
Solution:
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2. Consider a multistage machine line process which produces an assembly in quality. Number of
defectives per item is 1 or 2. The interarrival times are exponential and λ1 = 1/hr, λ2 = 2/hr, µ = 6/hr.
Find expected number of items in a system (Ls)
Solution:
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POST-TUTORIAL
1. Suppose we have a single server in a small grocery store. Customer arrival at the small grocery
store holds a Poisson distribution at a mean rate of 15 customers per hour. A server can serve each
customer with an exponential distribution at a mean service rate of 20 customers per hour.
Solution:
2. There are two clerks in a university to receive dues from the students. If the service time for each
student is exponential with mean 4 minutes, and the boys arrive in a poisson fashion at the counter at
the rate of 10 per hour.
(i) Obtain the probability of having to wait for service
(ii) Obtain the expected percentage of idle time for each clerk.
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Date of Evaluation
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