Chap 9

Mathscape 10 ext.
- Ch09 Page 338 Friday, October 14, 2005 8:08 AM
9 Probability
This chapter at a glance

Stage 5.1/5.2/5.3
After completing this chapter, you should be able to:
repeat an experiment a number of times to determine the relative
frequency of an event
estimate the probability of an event from experimental data
use the formula to calculate probabilities for simple events
distinguish between dependent and independent events
apply relative frequency to predict future experimental outcomes
design a device to produce a specified relative frequency
recognise and explain differences between relative frequency and
theoretical probability
sample with and without replacement in two-stage experiments
Probability
analyse two-stage events through constructing organised lists, tables

and/or tree diagrams
solve two-stage probability problems including instances of sampling with
and without replacement
find probabilities of compound events using organised lists, tables or
diagrams
solve probability problems involving compound events
critically evaluate statements on chance and probability
evaluate the likelihood of winning a prize in lotteries and other competitions
evaluate games for fairness
identify common misconceptions related to chance events
recognise the use of probability by governments and companies
use Venn diagrams as a tool in solving some probability problems.
338
Mathscape 10 ext. - Ch09 Page 339 Saturday, September 24, 2005 10:40 AM
Chapter 9: Probability 339
9.1 Probability review

There are many situations in our everyday lives where we are uncertain what will happen. For
example my train may be delayed and I will be late for work or it may rain on Saturday and
netball will be cancelled. While we may be uncertain what will occur, it is often very important
that we consider all the possibilities, assess their likelihoods and prepare for all eventualities.
As we have seen in previous years the branch of mathematics that we use for this purpose is
called probability.
The following terms have been used in our previous study of probability.
An experiment is an activity, such as tossing a coin or rolling a die, a trial is a single
occurrence of an experiment.
Each possible result of an experiment is called an outcome. In one roll of a die the outcomes
are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6. If each outcome has the same likelihood of occuring they are equally likely
outcomes.
An event is a particular collection of possible outcomes. For the roll of a die one event, E,
would be that the result is an even number. This event would occur with any of the outcomes
2, 4 or 6. An event is certain if it is sure to occur and impossible if it cannot occur.
Two events are mutually exclusive if they cannot both occur in the same trial. For example
rolling a die the events A, a number less than 3, and B, a number greater than 4, are mutually
exclusive since there is no outcome which can satisfy both A and B.
The probability of an event, A, is given by the formula:

number of outcomes favourable to A
P ( A ) = ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
total number of possible outcomes
Note: with this formula all outcomes must be equally likely.
■ Experimental probability
In experimental probability an experiment is conducted a number of times (usually a large
number) and the results are used to estimate the probabilities of the different outcomes.
For example, a die is rolled 100 times for the following results 6—14 times, 5—18 times,
4—17 times, 3—17 times, 2—18 times, 1—16 times.
The experimental probabilities in this case would be P(6) = 0.14 , P(5) = 0.18 , P(4) = 0.17,
P(3) = 0.17 , P(2) = 0.18 , P(1) = 0.16.
■ Theoretical probability
In some cases we are able to construct a theoretical description which allows us to calculate the
probabilities of events. For example, a card is drawn from a pack of ten numbered 1 to 10, but
otherwise identical cards. We would expect all cards to have the same chance of being drawn
1
so we theorise that the probabilities are all ------ .
10
340 Mathscape 10 Extension
Both experimental and theoretical probability are very important in our lives, as there are
situations in which each is the only possible practical method. Practical probability situations
often involve so many variables and are so complicated that a theoretical approach is not
possible. Equally, it is not desirable to repeat an experiment many times if the experiment is
very costly or dangerous.
Example 1
EG What is the probability of spinning a number 5 16
1
9
+S greater than 3 on the spinner pictured? 12 8
Solution 4 14
All 16 numbers are equally likely and there 13 3
are 13 numbers greater than 3. 7 11
13 10 6
The probability is ------ . 2 15
16
Example 2
EG The tables shows the numbers of males and females in the year 10 classes in a school.
+S
Male Female Class Total
10M1 11 21 32
10M2 20 12 32
10M3 13 17 30
10M4 15 12 27
10M5 14 15 29
Gender Total 73 77 150
a What is the probability that a student selected at random will be:
i in 10M3? ii a female? iii a male in 10M1?
b What is the probability that a student who is in 10M4 is male?
Solutions
There are 150 students altogether in year 10.
30 1
a i Since there are 30 students in 10M3 the probability = --------- = --- .
77 150 5
ii There are 77 girls so the probability = --------- .
150
11
iii There are 11 males in 10M1 so the probability = --------- .
150
15 5
b There are 27 students in 10M4 and 15 of them are male. The probability = ------ = --- .
27 9
■ Complementary events
An event, E, has a number of possible outcomes.
The complement of E is an event which has all the outcomes that are not included in E. Simply
put the complement of E is not E.
We use the symbol Ẽ for the complement of E.
P ( Ẽ ) = 1 – P ( E )
Example 3
EG A die is rolled. U is the event that either a 2 or a 5 result.
+S a What is the complement of U ?
b What is the probability of Ũ ?
Solutions
a The complement is all possible outcomes apart from 2 and 5.
b Thus Ũ = 1, 3, 4 or 6.
2
P ( Ũ ) = --- .
3
■ Venn diagrams
Venn diagrams provide a pictorial representation, and are especially helpful where the numbers
are large.
This Venn diagram represents the children at a school.
The circle labelled G represents all the girls at the school, SC G
with each girl being represented by a point within the
circle. We do not usually mark the points for the girls,
since the numbers are too great, but write the number of
girls inside the circle. Of course the region outside the G
circle will contain the boys.
The circle labelled SC contains all members of the school
choir. The girls in the choir will be in the region which is Boys
common to both circles. Similarly the remainder of the SC
circle contains the boys in the choir. Girls
boys who are

SC G
not in the choir
boys in
the choir
girls not in
the choir
girls in the choir
Example 4
EG This Venn diagram represents the school situation described in SC G
+S example 2, with the number of students in each section shown.
15 25 235
a How many girls attend the school?
b How many students attend the school?
c How many boys sing in the choir? 225
d What is the probability that a student chosen at random sings in the choir?
e What is the probability that a girl chosen at random sings in the choir?
Solutions
a The girls are all inside the G circle. 25 of them are also in the SC circle (sing in the choir)
and 235 are not.
Altogether there are 25 + 235 = 260 girls.
b There are four regions in the Venn diagram. We add all four numbers to find the total
number of students.
Number of students = 15 + 25 + 235 + 225 = 500
c We need the section of the SC circle which doesn’t overlap the G circle.
There are 15 boys.
d There are 15 + 25 = 40 students in the choir, and 500 students at the school.
40
The probability = ---------
500
2
= ------ .
25
e There are 260 girls and 25 sing in the choir.
25
The probability = ---------
260
5
= ------ .
52
Where a situation involves three sets we use three circles (or other shapes) making sure that
each circle intersects both the others.
Example 5
EG The regions A, B and C in this Venn diagram show school
B C
+S representatives in athletics, basketball and cross country
18
17 39
running, respectively. 16
5
a Find the number of students who: 48 293
i do not represent in any of the three sports. A 64
ii are athletics representatives.
iii represent in basketball and athletics but not cross country.
b Find the probability that a particular student:
i represents in basketball.
ii represents in all three sports.
iii who represents in athletics also represents in cross country.
Solutions
a i There are 293 students not inside any of the shapes.
ii 16 + 5 + 48 + 64 = 133 students are athletics representatives.
iii We need to check the region which is in the circle B and in the triangle A but not in
the rectangle C.
There are 16 students in this category.
b i The total for basketball is 17 + 16 + 5 + 18 = 56.
56 14
The probability = --------- = --------- .
500 125
ii There are only 5 students in the central region where the triangle, circle and rectangle
overlap.
5 1
The probability = --------- = --------- .
500 100
iii There are 133 athletics representatives. Those who also represent at basketball are in
the region where triangle and rectangle overlap. There are 5 + 48 = 53 of them.
53
The probability = --------- .
133
Exercise 9.1
1 A card is drawn from a normal deck of 52 cards (Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, Jack, Queen,
King of each of the four suits spades (black), hearts (red), diamonds (red) and clubs (black)).
What is the probability that the card is:
a a Jack? b red?
c the 5 of clubs or the 6 of clubs? d a 7 of any suit or a diamond (or both)?
e a ‘court’ card (Jack, Queen or King)?
2 A 20 sided die with faces labeled 1 to 20 is rolled. What is the probability of a number:
a divisible by 3? b between 11 and 18 ?
c divisible by 4 or 5 (or both)? d that is prime?
3 A company produces boxes of individually wrapped chocolates. They intend each box to
have 30 chocolates but suspect that the packing process is not entirely accurate, so they
conduct a random sample of 100 boxes and check the contents. The table shows the results
obtained.
Number of chocolates 28 29 30 31
Number of boxes 3 15 72 10
a What is the probability of buying a box with:
i the correct number of chocolates?
ii more than 30 chocolates?
iii fewer chocolates than intended?
b Do you consider that this situation is fair to the purchaser?
4 Kevin has a set of cards labelled 1, 2, 3, …, 10, and conducts an experiment in which he
draws one card at random. Consider the following events.
A = { 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 } = an even card is drawn
B = { 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 } = an odd card is drawn
C = { 2, 3, 5, 7 } = a prime number is drawn
D = { 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 } = a number greater than 4
E = { 8, 9, 10 } = a number greater than 7
F = { 1, 2, 3, 4 } = a number less than 5
a Name any pairs of:
i complementary events ii mutually exclusive events
b Find the probability of each event.
c Write the description of an event which would be:
i impossible ii certain
5 This Venn diagram shows the choices made by a group
of 15 friends who were all keen to go to a particular P M
movie, M, on Friday night and were also invited to a
party, P, on Saturday night. What is the probability that 6 6 3
a person chosen at random:
a went to both party and movie?
O
b went to the movie but not the party?
c went to the party?
d did not attend either movie or party?
■ Consolidation
6 Nadia has appeared on a TV quiz and won the contest. She now has a chance to spin a wheel
to see which prize she receives. The wheel has 30 identical sections labelled with the prizes,
as shown in the table.
Prize Car TV Holiday Shopping DVD Mobile Beauty Movie
voucher player phone pack passes
Value $42 000 $9000 $4500 $400 $300 $180 $150 $50
each each each each each each each
Number of
sections on 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 10
the wheel
What is the probability that Nadia wins:
a the car? b a DVD player?
c a prize worth more than $1000? d a prize worth less than $200?
e a holiday or a beauty pack?
7 This diagram shows the choices of two
Art Music
electives made by a class of 28 students.
They were required to choose either Music French 7 4
or Art and either French or Japanese. Japanese 6 11
a A student is chosen at random. What is the probability that he/she:

i chose Art and Japanese? ii did not choose Music?
iii chose French? iv did not choose Japanese or Art?
b What is the probability that a student:
i who chose French also does Art? ii who doesn’t do Art does study Japanese?
8 The Venn diagram contains a total of 40 members.
Find the probabilities: A
a P(B) B
b P(A) 12 23
c P(Ã)
d P(B but not A) 4
e P(neither B nor A).
9 The Australian Netball Team played Jamaica in three tests.
Due to injuries and form some players in the 12 member 1
F 2
team were unavailable or were dropped for various tests. 1
1 S
This Venn diagram illustrates the situation, where
F = first test, S = second test, T = third test. 1 1
If a squad member was chosen at random, what is the 1 T
probability that she:
a only played in the third test?
b played in all three tests?
c did not play a test?
d played in the first and second tests but not in the third?
e played in the first test and in either the second or the third tests (but not both)?
f played only two tests?
g played only one test?
10 Using the information in this Venn diagram find the
probabilities P(T), P(S), P(S and T). U
Total number in S and/or T = 50 S T
n(T) = 36
n(S) = 20.
11 In a group of 20 families, 5 families took overseas holidays between 2006 and 2010. 16 of
the families took interstate holidays within Australia during this time, and two families did
not travel overseas nor interstate. Draw a Venn diagram to illustrate this information.
12 In the USA the game ‘craps’ is popular. In craps a
sum of 7 or 11 win
player rolls two dice with the results as shown in
the table. On the second roll the player must roll the sum of 2, 3 or 12 lose
same sum as they rolled in the first roll to continue. any other sum roll again
a What is the probability of:
i winning on the first roll? ii losing on the first roll?
b What is the probability of neither winning nor losing on the first throw?
c If a player scores 5 on the first roll, what is the probability that they will again score that
sum on the second roll to allow them to continue?
d Apart from 7 or 11 which is the next best sum to score on the first roll?
13 Anastasia received a shiny new fifty cent coin in change at a shop and wondered if it really
was unbiased. She decided to test it and tossed the coin 20 times for 13 tails and 7 heads.
a What is the experimental probability of each outcome?
b What conclusion could Anastasia draw from this result?
Thinking that the coin really should be unbiased she decided to toss some more times.
In another 20 tosses she had 10 tails and 10 heads.
c Is she now justified in claiming that the coin is unbiased?
d What advice would you give Anastasia?
■ Further applications
14 In a lottery 100 000 tickets (numbered 1 to 100 000) are sold for $20 each. First prize is
$80 000, second $20 000, third $12 000 and there are many smaller prizes. A man buys a
single ticket but is dismayed to find that it is number 17. “When did you ever see a number
that small win the lottery?” he complained, tearing the ticket into small pieces. Discuss.
15 A soccer squad of twenty players has been chosen to represent Australia. In analysing the
squad the coach finds that:
• only 3 can play as forwards, in the midfield or as a defender
• 6 can play forward or in the midfield
• 1 can play forward or as a defender (but not in the midfield)
• there are 11 players who can play forward
• 7 of the 11 midfielders can play as defenders
• 1 player is injured and will not be able to play.
Draw a Venn diagram to illustrate this situation.
9.2 Independent compound events

Our study of probability up to this point has provided a theoretical framework which allows us
to calculate the probabilities of certain events occurring. These have been events comprising
just a single stage, for example rolling a 3 with a normal die, but in many practical situations
events involve more than one stage. We will now consider the calculation of probabilities of
compound events, those involving two or more stages, in which the two stages are independent
(do not affect each other).
Two events A and B are independent if the result in either event does not affect the
outcome in the other event.
Example 1
EG William plays a game in which he draws a card from a normal pack of playing cards and rolls
+S a die. He wins if the card is a diamond and the die shows an even number.
What is the probability that William will win?
Solution
This is a two-stage event since there are two requirements for William to win. The main
consideration in calculating William’s chance of winning is to ensure that we consider all
possible equally likely outcomes. This sounds simple enough but it is often easy to overlook
some possibilities so we need to be systemmatic in making our list.
One method of ensuring that we
Card draw Coin toss Outcome Result
don’t omit any possibilities in
even h-e lose
our list of outcomes is to use a heart
odd h-o lose
tree diagram. A tree diagram
even d-e win
for William’s game is shown. diamond
odd d-o lose
In this diagram the first column
even c-e lose
shows the four possible suits club
odd c-o lose
(heart, diamond, club or spade)
even s-e lose
when the card is drawn. The spade
odd s-o lose
second column shows the
possible results when the die is thrown, and the third column gives a list of all the
combinations of suit and number.
There are 8 possible combinations (all equally likely) and only d-e will allow William to win.
1
His probability of winning is --- .
8
Example 2
EG Samantha takes four identical cards and labels them 1, 2, 3 and 4. She shuffles the cards, draws
+S one at random and records the number drawn. She returns the card, shuffles again, selects a
second card and records its number.
What is the probability that Samantha has written two 3s?
Solution First draw Second draw Result
1 1, 1
The tree diagram for this activity is shown. 2 1, 2
1
There is just one 3, 3 in the list of 16 possible 3 1, 3
1 4 1, 4
outcomes so the probability = ------ . 1 2, 1
16
2 2 2, 2
3 2, 3
4 2, 4
1 3, 1
3 2 3, 2
3 3, 3
4 3, 4
1 4, 1
4 2 4, 2
3 4, 3
4 4, 4
While tree diagrams are useful for small numbers of outcomes they become unwieldy when
there is a larger number of stages, or more outcomes at each stage. An alternative means of
representing all possible outcomes of a two-stage situation is to use a table.
This table illustrates William’s game which we
Even Odd
have already represented as a tree diagram. The
card selections have been listed down the left Heart h-e h-o
hand side and the die outcomes, even and odd, Diamond d-e d-o
across the top. Each cell in the table represents Club c-e c-o
one outcome, for example heart-even.
Spade s-e s-o
Example 3
EG In a game of Monopoly a player rolls a pair of dice and adds the two numbers to determine
+S how many spaces they move around the board. Sam is six spaces from an opponent’s hotel
and he is very keen not to land on it.
a What is the probability that Sam rolls a total of 6?
b What is his chance of avoiding the hotel on this throw?
c Which sum is the most likely with a pair of dice?
1
d Which sums have a probability of --- ?
9
Solutions
We use the table where each cell shows the sum of the two numbers on the dice.
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
5
a Five of the 36 cells have a total of 6. Therefore the probability is ------ .
36
31
b 31 cells have totals other than six. The probability is ------ .
36
c More cells contain 7 than any other number. 7 is the most likely total with a probability
1
of --- .
6
1 4
d --- = ------ . Both 5 and 9 appear in four cells.
9 36
You may have realized that it is not necessary to know the details of each of the possible
outcomes of a compound experiment, or of those outcomes that will yield the event being
considered. What we need to know is the total number of possible outcomes and how many
outcomes yield the event.
For a two-stage event we label the events A and B, the number of favourable trials n(A) and
n(B), and the total number of trials n(NA) and n(NB).
The total number of compound events = n(NA) × n(NB)
The number of favourable events = n(A) × n(B)
n( A) × n( B)
Therefore, the probability of the compound event = -------------------------------------
n( N A) × n( N B)
n( A) n( B)
= --------------- × ---------------
n( N A) n( N B)
= P(A) × P(B)
Thus P(AB) = P(A) × P(B)
This formula, the Product Rule, is easily applied where the events A and B are independent,
that is the outcome of either does not affect the possible outcomes of the other.
If A and B are two independent events, then the probability that the event A will
occur, followed by event B, is given by:
P(AB) = P(A) × P(B)
where P(A) is the probability that the event A will occur
P(B) is the probability that the event B will occur
P(AB) is the probability that events A and B will occur in that order.
Using our example of William’s game again we have:

1
probability of drawing a diamond = ---
4 1
probability of rolling an even number = ---
2
1 1 1
Therefore, the probability of both, P(AB) = P(A) × P(B) = --- × --- = --- .
4 2 8
With understanding, application of the product rule is much quicker than compiling an
exhaustive list or drawing a tree diagram.
Using the product rule for example 2 we have
P(3, 3) = P(3F) × P(3S) where 3F = drawing a 3 at the first draw
1 1
= --- × --- and 3S = drawing a 3 at the second draw.
4 4
1
= ------ .
16
Exercise 9.2 First Second Result

1 1, 1
1 Use the tree diagrams provided to calculate 1 2 1, 2
3 1, 3
the required probabilities. 1 2, 1
a Three cards are labeled 1, 2 and 3. 2 2 2, 2
A card is selected at random and the 3 2, 3
number recorded. The card is replaced 1 3, 1
3 2 3, 2
and a second selection is made. The two 3 3, 3
umbers are added. Find the probability that the sum is:
i 5
ii 4
iii greater than 5
iv less than 5
b Luke, who lives a few kilometres To To To
from Gilgandra, wishes to travel Gilgandra Dubbo Sydney
bus
to Sydney. He can either walk, bus plane
cycle or drive to Gilgandra. From walk train
bus
Gilgandra he can take a bus to car plane
Dubbo, or get a lift in a friend’s train
bus
car. From Dubbo he can travel bus plane
to Sydney by train, plane or bus. cycle train
If all Luke’s choices are random, bus
car plane
find the probability that: train
i he travels in a bus, train and car bus
bus plane
ii he travels in two buses train
drive
iii he travels in two cars bus
car plane
iv he doesn’t travel by train train
v he doesn’t travel by car
2 Draw tree diagrams to create a list of all the possible outcomes for each experiment.
a A student chooses her summer sport from cricket, swimming and tennis, and her winter
sport from soccer and basketball.
b The sides of a four sided die are marked A, B, C and D.
The die is rolled twice and the outcomes recorded.
c A man travels from Dubbo to Orange twice, each time choosing to go by car, bus or
train.
d A normal coin is tossed three times and the results recorded.
e At the Year 10 Formal students have a three course meal.
Entrée Smoked salmon or Turkey
Main Roast beef or Apricot chicken or Sauteed pork
Dessert Caramel profiterole or Chocolate mudcake
Each person chooses one entrée, one main and one dessert.
3 Draw tree diagrams to create a list of all the possible

outcomes for each experiment. Use your tree diagram
to help you calculate the probabilities required.
B
a A circular spinner has three sectors labelled A, B and C.
If the spinner is spun twice what is the probability of: A
i two As? ii one B and one C?
iii no Cs? iv at least one B? C
b An unbiased coin is tossed twice. What is the probability of:

i two heads? ii two tails?
iii one head and one tail?
c A coin is tossed and then the spinner at the right is
spun. If the result is a head and an even number
Brandon wins. If it is a tail and an odd number Jordan
1 2
wins. Otherwise Daniel wins.
i What probability does each boy have of winning?
ii What is the probability of a head and a prime
number? 4 3
iii What is the probability of a head or an odd number,
or both?
d A man leaves Ashfield to drive to Newcastle. He can travel to Hornsby via the
Gladesville Bridge (no toll), the Sydney Harbour Bridge (toll) or the Sydney Harbour
Tunnell (toll). From Hornsby he can travel by Freeway (no toll) or by the Pacific
Highway (no toll). If both his choices are random find the probability that:
i he crosses the Gladesville Bridge.
ii he uses the Sydney Harbour Tunnel and the Freeway.
iii he doesn’t pay any tolls.
4 Use the tables provided to calculate the required probabilities.

a A pair of regular dice are rolled and the two numbers recorded.
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 (1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6)
2 (2, 1) (2, 2) (2, 3) (2, 4) (2, 5) (2, 6)
3 (3, 1) (3, 2) (3, 3) (3, 4) (3, 5) (3, 6)
4 (4, 1) (4, 2) (4, 3) (4, 4) (4, 5) (4, 6)
5 (5, 1) (5, 2) (5, 3) (5, 4) (5, 5) (5, 6)
6 (6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)
What is the probability that:
i the numbers rolled are 6 and 3? ii the numbers are both 2s?
iii the product of the numbers is 12? iv the sum of the numbers is 13?
v the numbers differ by more than two? vi the sum of the numbers is less than 9?
b Seven cards are labeled 1, 2, 3 …, 7. Another eight cards are labeled A, B, C, …, H.

One card is selected at random from each set.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
A (A, 1) (A, 2) (A, 3) (A, 4) (A, 5) (A, 6) (A, 7)
B (B, 1) (B, 2) (B, 3) (B, 4) (B, 5) (B, 6) (B, 7)
C (C, 1) (C, 2) (C, 3) (C, 4) (C, 5) (C, 6) (C, 7)
D (D, 1) (D, 2) (D, 3) (D, 4) (D, 5) (D, 6) (D, 7)
E (E, 1) (E, 2) (E, 3) (E, 4) (E, 5) (E, 6) (E, 7)
F (F, 1) (F, 2) (F, 3) (F, 4) (F, 5) (F, 6) (F, 7)
G (G, 1) (G, 2) (G, 3) (G, 4) (G, 5) (G, 6) (G, 7)
H (H, 1) (H, 2) (H, 3) (H, 4) (H, 5) (H, 6) (H, 7)
Find the probability of:
i one card being a D.
ii the cards being G and 4.
iii the cards being an A and an even number.
iv the cards being a prime number and a letter other than G or H.
v the letter being composed entirely of straight lines and the number being greater
than 3.
5 For each part, draw a table to show all possible outcomes and, hence, calculate the
required probabilities.
a Bronwyn has four different skirts (black, white, cream and pink) and six tops (white,
red, gold, blue, green and orange). If she chooses at random how many different outfits
does she have? What is the probability of her wearing:
i a cream skirt and a blue top?
ii either her white skirt or her pink skirt?
iii her black skirt with either her orange or white top?
iv her cream skirt with her red top or her pink skirt with any of her tops?
v neither her pink skirt nor her gold top?
b A pair of regular dice, one white and the other cream, are rolled. What is the probability
of:
i two 6s? ii a white 6 and a cream 5?
iii a 1 and a 2 of either colour? iv a white number greater than 2?
v the product of the numbers being less than 24?
c A regulation pack of cards has the four suits hearts (red), diamonds (red), clubs (black)
and spades (black). Sophie draws one card at random, replaces it, then draws a second
card at random. Calculate the probability that:
i the cards are both hearts. ii the cards are both red.
iii one card is red and the other black. iv one card is red and the other a spade.
v neither card is black nor a diamond. vi at least one of the cards is a club.
d Olivia travels from Sydney to Melbourne by bus, train, car or plane (all being equally
likely) and then from Melbourne to Adelaide by plane, car, bus, train, motorbike or
bicycle (all equally likely). Calculate the probability that:
i she completes the whole trip by train.
ii she travels by bus for at least part of the trip.
iii she doesn’t use her motorbike or bicycle.
iv she travels by bus for part of the trip and by train for the other part.
v she doesn’t travel by car or bus.
vi she doesn’t travel by road for at least part of the trip.
■ Consolidation
6 Angelique and Ramon were married in 2001. They were both keen to have children and
hoped to have three, with at least one of each gender. By 2007 they had three lovely
children but all three were boys. Angelique and Ramon considered three children the ideal
size of family but they were very keen to have a daughter. Taking probability into account,
what advice would you give Ramon and Angelique?
7 Use the product rule to calculate the probability in each of the following.
a The Australian Netball Team (7 players) is to play two tests against New Zealand. For
each test one player is chosen at random to lead the team onto the court. If the same
seven players are in the team for both tests, find the probability that:
i the Centre leads the team on for both tests.
ii the Goal Shooter leads for the first test and the Wing Defense for the second.
iii the Goal Attack leads for the first but not for the second test.
iv the Goalkeeper is not chosen to lead for either test.
v neither Goal Defense nor Centre lead on for the second test.
b Antoine creates a two-digit number by randomly selecting each digit from the numbers
1, 3, 5, 7 and 9.
What is the chance that the number is:
i odd? ii 57 or 91? iii greater than 50?
iv less than 42? v divisible by 11?
c The spinner illustrated is spun twice. 8 1
What is the probability of scoring: 9 12
i 1 on each spin?
ii the same number on each spin? 4 5
iii a number less than 6 on the first spin and
6 3
one greater than 6 on the second spin?
iv a number divisible by 3 on both spins? 11 10
v two numbers only one of which is prime? 2 7
vi a total greater than 3?
d Jabad and Chris each have a regular pack of cards. Each of them selects a card at
random from their pack. Find the probability that:
i their cards are of different colours.
ii Chris has an 8 and Jabad a club.
iii Chris has an 8 or 9 and Jabad has a spade.
iv Jabad doesn’t have a club and Chris doesn’t have a court card (Jack, Queen or
King).
v Jabad has a 9 of diamonds and Chris has a diamond or a 9.
8 Annabel has a regulation pack of cards (Ace, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, Jack, Queen, King in
each of the four suits). She chooses a card at random, records its details, and replaces it.
She repeats the process twice, selecting three cards in total. Find the probability that:
a all three cards are spades.
b all three cards are court cards (Jack, Queen or King).
c the first two cards are the 10 of diamonds and the 3 of clubs in that order.
d no Ace is chosen.
e the first card is a black Jack, the second is a number between 2 and 10, and the third is
a court card.
9 The spinner shown is spun four times. Orange

What is the probability that:
a all four results are either red or black?
Red Yellow
b the first and last spins are orange?
c only the first and last spins are orange?
d the first spin is black, the second is orange or yellow, Black Green
and the third and fourth spins are red, black or blue?
e none of the spins is red or green? Blue
10 The spinner illustrated is spun three times.

What is the probability of: 2 1
a three 2s? 5 3
b 6, 5, 4 in that order? 1 4
c 3, 2, 1 in that order?
d no 1s? 3 1
e at least two different scores?
6 3
1 2
11 Rachael purchases a townhouse ‘off the plan’ and the builder offers her a choice of colours
for interior painting. The walls can be cream, light blue or light green, and the ceilings vivid
white or off-white. Different colours may be chosen for different rooms but only two
colours can be used in any room (one for the ceiling and one for the walls). The townhouse
consists of four rooms; living room, bedroom, kitchen and bathroom. It is all so confusing
that Rachael makes random selections for each room.
a What is the number of possible colour schemes for Rachael’s townhouse?

b What is the probability that:
i the bedroom has cream walls and a vivid white ceiling?
ii the living room and the bedroom have the same colour schemes?
iii no ceiling is off-white?
iv all the walls are of the same colour?
v at least two rooms have identical colour schemes?
12 Salam is an archer. In a competition she fires just two arrows at

the target and her scores are added. Over many competitions
she has found that her probabilities are 10—1/20, 8—1/10,
5—1/5, 3—3/10, 1—7/20 (she never misses!). What is the
probability that: 10 8 5 3 1
a she scores better than 2?
b her total is 6?
c her total is more than 10?
d at least one arrow scores 10?
13 Basheer studies four subjects each semester for six semesters in his university degree. There
are five possible results for each subject and Basheer’s chances of earning each result are:
High distinction 7% Distinction 34%
Credit 40% Pass 16%
Fail 3%
a How many different sets of results are possible for the complete degree if a student has
no failures?
b What is the chance (to nearest 0.1%) that in a particular semester Basheer earns four
grades of distinction or better?
c What is the probability (to nearest 0.1%) of earning no credits in one year?
d Basheer’s friend Simon earns four passes in one semester. What is Basheer’s likelihood
(to nearest 0.1%) of not failing any subject and doing better than Simon?
TRY THIS Party time

A party of 16 girls is divided at random into 4 groups of 4. What is the probability
that 4 particular girls are in 4 different groups?
9.3 Dependent events

In the previous section we limited our consideration of multiple stage events to cases where the
stages were independent, so the outcome of one stage did not affect the possible outcomes at
the next or subsequent stages. We will now consider cases where the stages are not
independent. Our use of tree diagrams, tables and lists will remain the same but we will need
to be very careful in listing the possible outcomes at each stage.
Example 1
EG Three students A, B, and C are randomly assigned to the positions School Captain, School
+S Vice-captain and Senior Prefect. Construct a tree diagram to show all possible outcomes.
Solution
Clearly a person cannot fill more than one Captain Vice-captain Senior
position, therefore the choice of Captain Prefect
affects who is left to fill the other positions. B C
We can see that there are three choices for A
the first stage, two for the second and only C B
A C
one for the third. The number of possible B
outcomes is 3 × 2 × 1 = 6. C A
A B
C
B A
Situations such as that in example 1 are selections without replacement since each person can
only be selected once. Situations where a person can be chosen more than once are described
as selections with replacement.
Example 2
EG A teacher randomly selects one of A, B, C to ring the school bell at recess, lunch and end of
+S school. Construct a tree diagram to show all possible outcomes.
Solution
Since any student may be chosen more than once the tree diagram would be:
A B C
A B C A B C A B C
A B C A B C A B C A B C A B C A B C A B C A B C ABC
There are 27 possible outcomes when replacement is possible. The complete list is:
AAA AAB AAC ABA ABB ABC ACA ACB ACC
BAA BAB BAC BBA BBB BBC BCA BCB BCC
CAA CAB CAC CBA CBB CBC CCA CCB CCC
Example 3
EG A woman owns four motor vehicles: a sedan, station wagon, sports car and 4WD.
+S She will be driving on both Saturday and Sunday next weekend.
a Draw tree diagrams to show all possible driving arrangements if she:
i wants to drive a different vehicle each day
ii has no restrictions on the vehicles she drives.
b Construct a table for each case in part a.
c For each of i and ii find the probability that the sports car is used at some time over the
weekend.
Solutions
a i In this case the selection is without replacement.
Saturday Sunday
Sedan *
Sports car 4WD *
Station Wagon *
Sports car *
Sedan 4WD
Station Wagon
Sports car *
4WD Sedan
Station wagon
Sports car *
Station wagon Sedan
4WD
ii Saturday Sunday
Sports car *
Sports car Sedan *
4WD *
Station Wagon *
Sports car *
Sedan Sedan
4WD
Station Wagon
Sports car *
Sedan
4WD
4WD
Station wagon
Sports car *
Sedan
Station wagon
4WD
Station wagon
b i The cells which are not possible are shaded with the dark colour.
Sports car Sedan 4WD Station wagon
Sports car * * *
Sedan *
4WD *
Station wagon *
ii Sports car Sedan 4WD Station wagon

Sports car * * * *
Sedan *
4WD *
Station wagon *
c i All the outcomes marked * include use of the sports car.

6 1
The probability = ------ = --- .
12 2
ii The outcomes which include use of the sports car are again marked *.
7
The probability = ------ .
16
As we have already noted, as the number of stages increases or the number of outcomes at each
stage increases, the number of possible multistage outcomes becomes very large. In such cases
tree diagrams and tables may be impractical and instead we focus on the numbers of outcomes
without describing each one.
Example 4
EG a A card is selected at random from a normal pack of 52 cards, its details recorded and the
+S card replaced. This is repeated four times so that five cards are selected. What is the total
number of possible outcomes?
b A hand of five cards is dealt from a normal pack of 52 cards. What is the total number of
possible outcomes?
c A normal coin is tossed 30 times. How many possible outcomes are there?
Solutions
a This is a case of selection with replacement. There are 52 possibilities for each drawing.
Number of outcomes = 52 × 52 × 52 × 52 × 52 = 380 204 032
b This is a case of selection without replacement. There will only be 51 cards left after the
first card is dealt, 50 after the second, etc.
Number of outcomes = 52 × 51 × 50 × 49 × 48 = 311 875 200
c This is selection with replacement. There are 30 tosses with two possibilities for each one.
Number of outcomes = 2 × 2 × 2 × … × 2 = 230 = 1 073 741 824
Example 5
EG a Two cards are dealt from a regular pack of cards. What is the probability that they are
+S both spades?
b A hand of five cards is dealt. What is the probability that they are all red cards?
Solutions
a The number of possibilities for two cards = 52 × 51
The number of possibilities for two spades = 13 × 12
13 × 12 1
The probability of two spades = ------------------ = ------
52 × 51 17
OR
13
The probability of the first card being a spade = ------
52
With one spade gone there are 12 remaining in 51 cards.
12
The probability of the second card being a spade = ------
51
13 12 1
The probability of two spades = ------ × ------ = ------
52 51 17
b The number of possibilities for five cards = 52 × 51 × 50 × 49 × 48
The number of possibilities for five red cards = 26 × 25 × 24 × 23 × 22
26 × 25 × 24 × 23 × 22
The probability of five red cards = -------------------------------------------------------
52 × 51 × 50 × 49 × 48
253
= ------------
9996
Exercise 9.3
1 A Davis Cup tennis team has four playing members A, B, C and D, and the non-playing
captain has to select two players to play the opening two singles matches. His choice is
random.
a Draw a tree diagram to illustrate this situation and list all possible choices.
i the two players are C and D?
ii B is one of the singles players?
iii A is not selected?
2 Lachie has five cards labelled 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4. He chooses two cards at random and places
them on his desk forming a number.
a Draw a tree diagram for this situation.
b Calculate the probability that the number formed is:
i 24.
ii a two digit number (one that doesn’t begin with 0).
iii greater than 24.
iv divisible by 5.
v divisible by 3.
3 Lachie is forming two digit numbers again (see question 1), this time with ten cards labelled
0, 1, 2, … , 9. The possible numbers are represented in this table.
Units digit
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
1 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
2 20 21 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
3 30 31 32 34 35 36 37 38 39
4 40 41 42 43 45 46 47 48 49
5 50 51 52 53 54 56 57 58 59
6 60 61 62 63 64 65 67 68 69
7 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 78 79
8 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 89
9 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
a How many numbers can Lachie form?
b How many two digit numbers can Lachie form?
c He forms one two digit number. What is the probability that
i the number is divisible by 5?
ii the number is greater than 50?
iii the digits of the number have a sum of 10?
iv the number is between (not including) 23 and 72?
4 Two girls are chosen at random from a group of five—

AB AC AJ AM
Annabelle, Becky, Catriona, Jess and Mieka. The possible
selections are as shown. Use the table to help you calculate BA BC BJ BM
the probability that: CA CB CJ CM
a Becky is selected
JA JB JC JM
b Jess and Catriona are chosen
c Mieka is not chosen but Annabelle is MA MB MC MJ
d neither Becky nor Catriona is chosen
e either Mieka or Annabelle, or both, is not selected.
■ Consolidation
5 Emma has 48 books in her bookcase.
a In how many ways can she choose two books to read?
b If she has 15 novels, what is the probability that:
i both books chosen are novels? ii neither book is a novel?
iii at least one of the books is a novel?
c If the books are arranged with 24 on each of two shelves, what is the probability that
the two books are taken from different shelves?
6 A bag contains 4 red, 7 blue, 2 yellow and 2 white discs of identical shape and size.
a Two discs are drawn without replacement. What is the probability that:
i both discs are blue? ii neither disc is yellow? iii one is red and the other white?
b Three discs are drawn without replacement. What is the probability that:
i all three are yellow? ii all three are red?
iii no disc is blue? iv at least one disc is white?
7 One hundred tickets are sold in a raffle.

a Sasha buys one ticket. What is her chance of winning:
i first prize? ii second prize?
b Alexis buys five tickets. What is her probability of winning:
i first prize? ii second prize? iii third prize?
8 Two letters are chosen randomly without replacement from the word MATHEMATICAL.
a What is the probability that:
i both letters are Ms? ii neither letter is an A? iii neither E nor T is chosen
b If three letters were chosen, what is the probability that:
i they are three As? ii there are no As chosen?
iii the letters are A, L, I in that order? iv the letters are A, L, I in any order?
c If three letters were chosen with replacement, find the probability of:
i no As chosen ii the letters A, L, I in that order
iii only two of the letters being M
9 A die has three green faces, two red faces and one blue. The die is rolled twice. What is the
probability of the two results being red and green (order is not important)?
10 A sandwich bar has only six sandwiches left, three egg and lettuce, two ham and pineapple
and one chicken and avocado. Three friends A, B, and C buy two sandwiches each with A
choosing first, then B then C.
a C is hoping to buy the chicken sandwich. What is her chance of getting it?
b If A chooses two egg sandwiches, what is C’s chance of buying the chicken?
c What is the probability that each person buys an egg sandwich?
d What is the probability that C buys an egg sandwich and either another egg or a ham?
11 A choir of 51 members elects a president each year and all members have an equal chance
of election.
a If a president can not be re-elected for a period of five years, what is the probability that:
i Eddie is elected in the first year of the choir’s existence?
ii Eddie is elected for the first time in the third year?
iii Erin and Josh each serve as president in the first two years?
iv David and Samantha are each elected in the first three years?
b Calculate the probabilities for i to iv in part a if there are no restrictions on who is
elected.
12 A ‘point’ in tennis is begun by one player serving. If the player serves a ‘fault’ (the ball
does not land in the correct part of the court), a second serve is allowed. If both serves are
faults the player loses the point.
Jeff uses either a fast serve or a slow serve.
1
When he serves his fast serve the chance of a fault is --- but if the serve is ‘good’ his
4 2
probability of winning the point is --- .
5 1
When he serves his slow serve the chance of a fault is --- but if the serve is ‘good’ his
1 5
probability of winning the point is only --- .
2
What are the best tactics for Jeff to use: hard-hard, hard-soft, soft-hard or soft-soft?
13 A five card hand is dealt from a regulation pack of cards. Find the probability of:
a a flush (all five cards are of the same suit).
b an Ace high straight (Ace, King, Queen, Jack and ten of any suits).
c four Aces and any other card.
d three Kings and two Queens.
14 Three numbers are chosen at random from the numbers 1 to 100. Calculate the probability
of:
a the first two both being divisible by 5
b the first number being divisible by 8 and the second being even
c the first number being even and the second divisible by eight
d the three numbers are divisible by 3, 6 and 12 in any order
e two of the numbers being greater than 50
9.4 Games and other applications

Many games involve an element of chance. The theory of probability allows us to analyse the
games we play and assess our chances of winning. Most games involve more than one stage,
so the techniques we have used in sections 2 and 3 of this chapter will often be of use. Since
the numbers involved are usually extremely large tree diagrams, tables and lists are impractical,
and instead it is necessary to use the product rule.
Example 1
EG Shane plays Snakes and Ladders rolling a single die. If he has ten turns how many sets of
+S scores are possible?
Solution
There are 6 possible outcomes at each roll of the die so in 10 rolls there are 6 10 outcomes, or
6 × 6 × 6 × 6 × 6 × 6 × 6 × 6 × 6 × 6. (610 = 60 466 176!)
If Shane plays with two friends then after each player has had 10 rolls the number of possible
outcomes is 630.
630 221 000 000 000 000 000 000 000!
In discussing music it is quite common for people who have not studied probability to think that
we must soon exhaust the set of possible melodies. “After all,” they argue, “millions of
composers have written many millions of pieces of music over thousands of years. We must be
running out of possibilities by now!”
Example 2
EG A composer writes a short refrain of 20 crotchet beats choosing from just 8 notes (do, re, me,
+S … , do i.e. just the one octave). How many possibilities exist?
Solution
With 8 choices for each of the 20 crotchets the number is 820.
(820 1 153 000 000 000 000 000)
Of course there are far more than 8 notes from which to choose, songs are much longer than
20 notes, and notes need not all be crotchets. Clearly the number of possible songs is immense.
Our Sun would die and the Earth cease to exist in its present state before we had done more
than barely begin using the possibilities.
Note: The sun is expected to live for about 10 000 000 000 years!
Example 3
EG The card game Bridge is played with four players and the whole pack of cards is dealt with
+S each player receiving 13 cards. How many different deals of all 52 cards are possible?
Solution
This case is without replacement so the number is
52 × 51 × 49 × … × 3 × 2 × 1 = 52! (this is called factorial 52).
52! 80 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000
If each game took 10 minutes, 10 million games were in progress at any moment around the
world and each game resulted in a different deal, it would take more than
1 500 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 000 years to
exhaust all the possibilities.
Example 4
EG Ngaire and Mairaid play a game in which the winner is the first to toss a head with an unbiased
+S coin. Ngaire tosses first, Mairaid has the second and third tosses. If the first three tosses are
all tails the game is drawn. What is the probability that:
a Ngaire wins?
b Mairaid wins?
c the game is drawn?
d Do you feel that this game is fair to both players?
Mathscape 10 ext. - Ch09 Page 364 Tuesday, October 4, 2005 2:42 PM
Solutions
A tree diagram for this game is shown.
First Toss Second Toss Third Toss Result
Head Ngaire wins
Head Mairaid wins
Tail Head Mairaid wins
Tail
Tail Draw
1
a Ngaire can only win at the first toss. P(Ngaire) = ---
2
1 1 1
b Mairaid can win at the second toss Probability = --- × --- = ---
2 2 4
1 1 1 1
or at the third toss. Probability = --- × --- × --- = ---
2 2 2 8
1 1 3
P(Mairaid) = --- + --- = ---
4 8 8
1 1 1 1
c Three successive tails yields a draw P(draw) = --- × --- × --- = ---
2 2 2 8
d The two players do not have equal probabilities of winning so the game does not seem fair.
Games are considered fair if the outcomes are equal for all players. Where there are prizes the
amount of the prize must be taken into account and we use a measure known as the expected
value or expectation.
The expected value is the average return one would expect if the game was played many times.
Expected value = value of prize × probability of prize
If the game is fair then the expected value will be the same as the amount invested.
Example 5
EG Gladys pays $1 to play a game. She rolls a normal die and wins $6 if she rolls a 1. She receives
+S no prize for any other score. What is her expected return? Is the game fair?
Solution
Expected value = value of prize × probability of prize
1
= $6 × --- .
6
= $1
Gladys has paid $1 to play and, on average, she expects a return of $1. Her expected return is
equal to her outlay. The game is fair.
Where there are more than just one prize, the expected return is the sum of all the separate
expected returns for the various prizes.
Example 6
EG Letitia pays $5 to play a game. She rolls a normal die and wins $15 if she rolls a 6, and $9 for
+S a 1. She receives no prize for any other score. What is her expected return? Is this a fair game?
Solution
1 1
Expected return = $15 × --- + $9 × --- .
6 6
= $2.50 + $1.50
= $4
Letitia’s expected return, $4, is not equal to her outlay, $5, so the game is not fair.
Exercise 9.4
1 A hand of three cards is dealt from a pack of 52 cards.

a How many different hands are possible?
i the first card dealt is the Ace of spades?
ii all cards are hearts?
2 Ben pays $10 to play a game in which he rolls a regular die twice. If he rolls the same
number on both rolls he receives $50, otherwise he receives nothing.
a Calculate Ben’s chance of winning the $50.
b What is his expected return for this game?
c Do you consider this a fair game?
3 You are offered the opportunity to play any of a number of games. In each case you pay
$10 to play and roll a pair of dice.
Game 1 If the sum of the numbers is 8, 9, 10, 11 or 12 you receive $20.
Game 2 If the sum of the numbers is 2, 3, 4, 10, 11 or 12 you receive $20.
Game 3 If the sum of the numbers is 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 or 12 you receive $20.
a Would you choose to play? Explain why or why not.
b Which game gives you the best probability of winning?
c Are any of the games fair?
4 In small groups, or as directed by your teacher, consider how probability may have been
influential in determining the following restrictions which apply in our community.
a Motor vehicle insurance premiums are higher and/or the amount of coverage is less
where the vehicle is driven by younger drivers (under 26).
b L and P plate drivers have more restrictions placed on their driving, for example lower
speed limits.
c It is illegal to sell alcoholic beverages to people less than 18 years of age.
d Drivers over 85 years of age have a driving test every year.
e Some elderly drivers have restricted licenses, for example they may only be able to
drive within 50 kilometres of their home.
f Organisers of games of chance, for example lotteries and marketing schemes with
prizes are required to provide full details of the number of tickets, number and value of
prizes and other information to anyone entering the game or competition.
g Some professional sports have “salary caps” for the teams in major competitions.
h Some members of our community have been declared bankrupt.
i Some people who have broken the law are in gaol.
j Most insurance companies will not issue contents policies for residents of nursing
homes or hostels.
■ Consolidation
5 A hand of five cards is dealt from a pack of 52 cards.
a How many different hands are possible?
i the first card dealt is an Ace? ii all cards are hearts?
6 You are offered the opportunity to play any of a number of games. In each case you pay
$10 to play and roll a pair of dice.
Game 1 If the sum of the numbers is 7 you receive $50.
Game 2 If the sum of the numbers is 6 or 8 you receive $30.
Game 3 If the sum of the numbers is 2, 3, 4 or 5 you receive $30.
a Would you choose to play? Explain why or why not.
b Which game gives you the best probability of winning?
c Are any of the games fair?
7 Jae and Jemima play a game in which Jae has the first roll of a regular die. If the number
rolled is even she wins. If Jae does not win Jemima rolls the die. If Jemima rolls a number
greater than 2 she wins, otherwise the game is drawn. Calculate each player’s probability
of winning and decide whether the game is fair.
8 Blake and Cynthia play a game in which Blake has the first roll of a regular die. If the
number rolled is divisible by 3 he wins. If Blake does not win Cynthia rolls the die.
If Cynthia rolls an even number she wins, otherwise the game is drawn. Calculate each
player’s probability of winning and decide whether the game is fair.
9 A musician composes a piece of music consisting of just six crotchet beats. Each note in
the composition is a crotchet and only eight different pitches (do, re, … , do) can be used
for any particular note.
a How many possible pieces can she create?
i the composition begins with so?
ii the first three notes are do, so, so?
iii neither re nor fa are used at any point in the piece?
iv the last two notes are te and do (upper)?
10 A group of cricketers attend a restaurant for their team’s Christmas party.

a A, B, C, D, E and F sit at a circular table for six. What is the probability that:
i C and E sit in adjacent places?
ii B and F are separated by just one other person?
b G, H, I, J, K and L sit at a rectangular table for six * * *
(see diagram). What is the probability that:
i I and J sit on opposite sides of the table?
ii G and L sit opposite each other?
* * *
c M, N, O and P sit at a square table for four *

(see diagram). What is the probability that:
i M and N sit opposite each other?
ii P sits to M’s left? * *
*
11 Parents of children at a school are offered an insurance policy to cover their child against
certain specified accidents in the school playground over a one-year period. The accidents
to be covered, their historical probabilities of occurrence, and the benefits provided are
shown in the table.
Nature of injury Beneﬁt ($) Probability Expected return
Broken limb 1 500 0.01
Loss of eyesight 100 000 0.0005
Loss of hearing 50 000 0.0002
Accidental death 10 000 0.0001
Copy and complete the table. If the annual premium is $150, do you consider the policy
offers fair value for money? Discuss.
12 With its catalogue a mail-order company includes a ticket which the recipient is told has
already won a prize. The recipient is advised that to receive their prize they need to order
an item from the catalogue. The prize will be one of the following:
• $10 000 cash
• a TV valued at $900
• a DVD player value at $120
• your choice of a silver bangle or a gold plated tiepin.
In a small print section labeled “Conditions” the following information is included.

i 1 500 000 catalogues have been mailed
ii the number of prizes available and their values are:
Prize Money TV DVD Jewellery
Number 1 1 1 60 000
Value $10 000 $900 $120 $10
a How much is the company spending in prizes?
b What proportion of recipients would you expect to place an order? Give reasons for
your answer.
c What is your probability of receiving the money, the TV, the DVD or the piece of
jewellery?
d If you place an order what is your expected prize value?
e How is the company able to justify this expenditure?
f Do you feel that this type of promotion is fair to consumers?
13 Ann is playing Monopoly and rolling two dice at each turn. She is very keen to land on a
square that is five spaces ahead of her present position. What is the chance that she will land
on the square on her present trip around the board?
14 Research the use of probability in our community. You could consider major categories
such as government, major public companies, small business, household finance, the
insurance industry, sport and leisure and health.
You should consider questions such as:
• In what aspects of our lives is probability used?
• How often is it used?
• How important is its use?
• How would we be affected if there was no mathematical approach to probability?
One starting point for your research could be to review a daily newspaper and assess how
many items would have some relationship to probability.
15 Ngaire and Mairaid play a game in which the first to toss a head with an unbiased coin wins.
Ngaire has first toss and Mairaid has all the subsequent tosses. Is this a fair game?
16 Jae and Jemima play a game in which Jae has the first roll of a regular die. If the number
rolled is even she wins. If Jae does not win Jemima rolls the die. If Jemima rolls a number
greater than 2 she wins, otherwise the game is repeated. This sequence of steps is repeated
until there is a winner. What is each player’s chance of winning? Is the game fair?
Mathscape 10 ext. - Ch09 Page 369 Friday, October 14, 2005 8:09 AM
TRY THIS ‘Fair’ games

In one of the games at a fair players throw 20-cent
coins (one at a time) onto a large grid like the one
shown here. If the coin lands touching a line, the
FOCUS ON WORKING MATHEMATICALLY

player loses the coin. However, if the coin lands
completely inside a square, the player wins the
amount of money stated inside that square.
A 20-cent coin has a diameter of 29 mm.
35 mm
(a) What is the probability (on each throw) of the
player winning? 35 mm
(b) How large would the grid squares have to be for
the probability of winning to equal 1
---- ?
2
0FF O R KING W M I CAAL LL LYY

O C U S O N W 0 R K I N G M AATTHHEEMMAATTI C
ICALLY
OCUS O N
PLAYING CRICKET WITH DICE

Introduction
MATHEMAT
In this activity we are going to
strengthen your understanding
of probability by simulating a
game of cricket. There are 11
players on a team. The whole
team is out when 10 players
are out. The other team then WORKING
bats.
You will need a partner and
two dice, preferably of
different colours. The idea is
to roll the dice and add the
numbers on the uppermost faces. This will be the number of runs scored for that throw.
ON
However if you roll a double, the batsman is out. Each player rolls the dice 6 times for an over.
Copy and complete the table on page 370 in your book. Roll the dice until the ten batsmen on
FOCUS
the first team are out. Repeat the experiment for the second team. The winner is the team who
scores the most runs. Each player can name and own a team to make it fun. We have filled in
possible runs for the first few batsmen and used the symbol W when a double was thrown to
show when they got out.
In your table record the total number of throws to dismiss the team and the total runs scored.
Table 1: Number of throws and runs scored in an innings
Batsmen Scorebook No. of throws Score
1 3, 6, 9, 4, W 5 22
MATHEMATICALLY
2 7, 7, 11, 5, 10, W 6 40
3 W 1 0
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Totals
MATICALLY
Focus question
How many overs would you expect to have to make to complete a game?
2L EARNING ACTIVITIES
F O C U S O N W O R K I HNE G
1 Copy and complete the possible outcomes of throwing the dice and adding the numbers of
the uppermost faces.
MAT
Table 2: Sum of the numbers on the dice

Die 1
+ 1 2 3 4 5 6
WORKING
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Die 2 4
5
ON
6
2 Use your table to show that the probability of the outcome “throwing a double”, that is of
FOCUS
1
getting a batsman out, is --- .
6
3 Write down the probability of the event “not throwing a double”, that is of the batsman
scoring runs, on any throw of the dice. What is this event called?
4 For each innings, work out

the number of doubles
---------------------------------------------------------------
the total number of throws
and use a calculator to express this fraction as a decimal (the number of doubles will be 10,
as the innings closes when 10 batsmen are out). What do you notice?
FOCUS ON WORKING MATHEMATICALLY

5 Make an estimate of the number of throws you would have to make to get a whole team out.
If the whole class carries out the experiment in groups, you could average the results.
Answer the focus question.
6 Is each throw a dependent or independent event? Why?
7 A person throws the dice 10 times in a row without throwing a double. Her friend expects
that on the next throw she will be more likely to get a double. Is this true?
8C HALLENGE ACTIVITIES
1 Repeat the game but increase the odds of getting out. This time the batsman is out if the
sum of the numbers on the die is 7 or 9. Draw up a new innings table and record your results.
What did you find?
ICALLY
2 What is the theoretical probability of getting out? How does this compare with what you
found from the experiment? Answer the focus question again.
3 You can make up your own rules and play the game as much as you wish. You can use three
dice instead of two to make it more complex. Check with your teacher when you report the
MATHEMAT
outcomes.
4 Explore how the game could be played on a computer using a spreadsheet. There are notes
for teachers on the Mathscape10/10 extension School CD-ROM to help you.
5 As a real brainteaser, see if you can work out the expected number of runs in an innings.
Make an estimate from the class results first and check with your teacher.
E
WORKING
L ET’S COMMUNICATE
In small groups first, discuss the difference between experimental probability and theoretical
probability. That is, what you find in carrying out an experiment such as throwing dice, and
what could be expected from theory. How are they linked? Then discuss as a whole class with
your teacher.
ON
%R EFLECTING
FOCUS
Reflect on the connections between what you have learned about probability and the topics of
fractions and decimals. Could a probability be expressed as a percentage also? Are there any
links with algebra? Geometry? Think it over and discuss with your teacher.
1 In your own words describe the difference chance noun 1. (uncount) the absence of any known
between a dependent and an independent reason for something happening: They met by chance.
event. 2. risk: to take a chance. 3. opportunity: Now is your
2 Give an example of a compound event. chance to tell him.
3 Give an example of sampling with Are any of these meanings the mathematical
replacement. meaning of the word? Explain.
4 Give an example of sampling without
replacement.
5 Read the Macquarie Learners Dictionary
entry for the word chance:
1 A card is drawn from a standard deck of 3 A roulette wheel lies horizontally and
52 cards. spins around a vertical axis. The wheel
CHAPTER RE
J = a black Jack is drawn has 38 slots around its circumference and

K = a court card is drawn while the wheel is spinning a ball is rolled
L = the card drawn is red in the opposite direction around the rim
M = the card is either red or a court card finally falling into one of the 38 slots. All
but not both slots are equally likely.
N = the card is neither black nor an Ace The slots are numbered 1 to 36, 0 and 00.
a Name a pair of mutually exclusive Half of the 1 to 36 slots are red and the
events. other half black. The 0 and 00 slots are
b Describe J̃ , the complement of J. green.
c Calculate the probabilities:
Find the probability of:
i P(L)
a red
ii P(M)
b green
iii P(N)
c 32
2 A pair of dice are rolled and the numbers d an odd number
added. What is the probability of: e a square number or a green number
a 6
4 The table on the next page shows the
VIEW
b an even number
number of vehicles insured and the
c a number less than 7
number of claims made on an insurance
company during one year.
CHAPTER REVIEW
VIEW
Type of Sedan Station Sports 4WD Utility 6 In a class of 30 Year 12 students 25 are
vehicle wagon car licensed drivers. 15 of the 30 students
travel to school by public transport and
Number 120 000 28 000 8 000 49 000 33 000 11 of them have licences. Draw a Venn
insured diagram to illustrate this information.
Number 2 439 603 302 2 175 2 317 a What is the probability that a student
of claims chosen at random from this class:
CHAPTER RE
i has yet to get a drivers’s licence?
a What is the probability that a vehicle
ii has a licence but still travels by
chosen at random has been the
public transport?
subject of a claim if it is:
iii has no licence but does not use
i a utility?
public transport?
ii a sedan?
b What is the probability that a student
iii a 4WD or a sports car?
who travels by public transport has a
b Which category of vehicle has the
licence?
worst claim rate?
7 There are four reasonable routes from
c What is the probability of a claim for
Inverell to Gunnedah by car, and three
all the types of vehicles taken
from Gunnedah to Dubbo. This
together?
information is illustrated on the tree
5 The Venn diagram.
diagram E M Inverell Gunnedah Dubbo
shows the E
number of 21 9 15
students A F
electing to 55 G
study E
extension English and/or extension
Maths in a year 11 group. B F
E = students taking extension English G
M = students taking extension E
Mathematics
a What is the total number of students? C F
b What is the probability that a student G
chosen at random E
i takes extension Mathematics?
D F
ii does not study extension English?
c What is the chance that a student who G
is attempting extension English also If Virginia makes random choices in
does extension Maths? deciding how to drive from Inverell to
d What is the probability that an Dubbo
extension Maths student is also a by how many different routes can she
enrolled in extension English? travel?
CHAPTER REVIEW

CHAPTER RE
b What is the probability of: 10 Marette rolls two dice, one of which is
i using road C? white and the other green, and multiplies
ii using roads A and G? the two numbers that result.
iii using road E? a Copy and complete this table.
iv using either road B or road F
Green Die
(or both)?
v not using either road D or road G? 1 2 3 4 5 6
8 A woman chooses to live in one of four 1 1 2 3
suburbs: Ashfield, Belmore, Cronulla or
Denistone. She chooses to travel to work 2 2 4
White
by bus or train or car. 3 3 6
a Draw a tree diagram to illustrate all die
4
the possible outcomes for her two
choices. 5
b Assuming that both her choices are 6
random what is the probability that:
i she lives in Cronulla? b What is the probability that Marette’s
product is:
VIEW
ii she lives in Belmore and travels

by bus? i 5?
iii she travels to work by train? ii 6?
iv she does not live in Ashfield or iii greater than 12?
Belmore and doesn’t travel by iv less than 20?
car? v either 12 or greater than 16?
9 Estelle tosses an unbiassed coin and notes 11 A wheel with sections coloured red, blue
the result. She then rolls a die and records and green is spun. A ball is then randomly
whether the number is even or odd. From drawn from a bag containing 20 balls
a bag containing 3 red, 3 black and which may be coloured white, yellow or
3 white discs she draws a disc at random. black. This two-stage experiment is
a Draw a tree diagram to illustrate all repeated for 100 trials and the results are
the possible outcomes for Estelle’s shown in the table below.
three-stage experiment. Wheel
b What is the probability that Estelle
will: Red Blue Green
i roll an even number? White 30 16 16
ii toss a head and draw a red disc?
Bag
Yellow 14 6 9
iii toss a tail, roll an odd number and
draw white? Black 4 3 2
iv roll an even number but not draw a Using the experimental results in the
a black disc? table estimate the probabilities of
v either roll a head or draw red but spinning:
not both? i red ii blue iii green
b Estimate the probabilities of drawing:
i white ii yellow iii black
CHAPTER REVIEW
VIEW
c Given that there are exactly 20 balls b If the two positions are filled by a
in the bag, estimate the number of random selection, what is the
each colour. probability that:
d Using your answer to part a, what i the two chosen are W and Y
size sectors do you think red, blue and (without taking the particular
green would have on the wheel positon into account)?
(estimate the angles at the centre)? ii Z fills one of the positions?
CHAPTER RE
12 Your teacher comes to class for a lesson iii W is the president and Y the
on probability and produces a die which publicity agent?
she says is unbiassed. One of the students iv X is not chosen for either position?
rolls the die and scores 5. A second 15 The coach of a school netball team
student also rolls 5 and so does a third. with 7 members randomly selects one
a Would you still believe that the die member to be captain and another to
was unbiassed? be vice-captain.
b How many consecutive 5s would be a Construct a table to illustrate the
required to convince you that the die possible outcomes of the coach’s
was not unbiassed? choices. Use labels A, B, C, D, E, F
13 A roulette wheel has 38 slots, all equally and G for the team members.
likely, and 18 of these are black. b Using your table calculate the
a What is the probability of: probability that:
i black on one spin of the wheel? i A is chosen for one of the
ii black on two consecutive spins? positions
iii black on three consecutive spins? ii B and E are both chosen
iv black on ten consecutive spins? iii F is not chosen for either position
b At a particular Monte Carlo casino iv C becomes captain and D
the black came up in 26 consecutive vice-captain
spins on 18 August 1913. v G is not captain but F is
i What was the probability of this vice-captain
occurrence? vi either C or D is captain and
ii During this amazing run of black either A or E is vice-captain
some people bet heavily against
16 A student has to choose two elective
black (on red) assuming that red
subjects from five that are available:
had to ‘catch up’. Were they
Computing, Art, Music, Japanese and
wise? Explain.
Personal Health.
14 Four friends, W, X, Y, Z, sing in a
a List all possible choices the student
barbershop quartet. They choose one of
could make (order of choice is not
the four to be leader and another person to
important).
be publicity agent.
b If all possible choices are equally
a Draw a tree diagram to illustrate
likely, find the probability that the
this situation and list all possible
student:
outcomes.
i chooses Art
CHAPTER REVIEW
VIEW
ii chooses Japanese but not Music c A boy watches TV for 5 hours.
iii does not choose Computing or Assuming that all programs last
Japanese, but does choose 1
--- hour and there are five channels
Personal Health or Music 2
available to him, how many different
17 Katie has 20 books arranged on one shelf sequences of programs are possible
above her desk. She chooses two books, for him?
at random, to take away on a holiday. 21 Jemima and Sam play a game in which
CHAPTER RE
What is the chance that the two books Sam has first turn. Sam draws a card from
were alongside each other? a pack of 52. If the card is a spade, Sam
18 Two letters are chosen at random from wins. If not, it becomes Jemima’s turn.
the word PROBABILITY. What is the Jemima rolls a die and wins if the number
chance that: rolled is divisible by 3. Calculate each
a they are P and T in that order? player’s chance of winning. Is this a fair
b they are P and T in either order? game?
c they are both Bs? 22 a Gomez pays $10 to play a game in
d they are not the same? which he rolls a die and wins if he
e one is a B or an I and the other is not? rolls a 6. The prize is $50. What is
19 After a federal election in Australia the Gomez’s expected return? Is this a
new Prime Minister has to choose a fair game?
Deputy Prime Minister and a Treasurer b Gomez again pays $10 to play the
(two very important portfolios) from his game but there are two prizes: $30 for
a 6, and $20 for a 5. What is Gomez’s
ten most senior colleagues (A, B, C, D, E,
expected return? Is this a fair game?
F, G, H, I and J). If his choice is random
c Gomez plays again with a ‘prize’ for
what is the chance that:
every number: 1—$2, 2—$4, 3—$7,
a he chooses A for Deputy Prime
4—$12, 5—$15, 6—$20.
Minister and B for Treasurer?
i What is the probability that
b he chooses D and E for the two posts,
Gomez rolls a winning score?
but defers deciding which position ii What is his expected return in this
each will have? game?
c neither F nor C is selected? iii Is this a fair game?
d G receives a post but I does not? 23 David and Samantha play a game in
e J becomes Treasurer and the Deputy which David has first turn and rolls a
Prime Minister is F, C or B? regular die. If the die shows 1 or 2, David
20 a A poker hand consists of five cards wins. If the die shows 3 to 6 the game
dealt from a regular pack of 52 cards. continues with Samantha’s turn.
How many such hands are possible? Samantha tosses an unbiassed coin and
b Our alphabet contains 26 letters. wins if the result is a head. If she tosses a
Assuming that any collection of tail it becomes David’s turn again and the
letters forms a word (for example first two steps are repeated. The game
zcptl), how many 6 letter words can continues until one of the players
be formed? achieves a win. Is this a fair game?
CHAPTER REVIEW

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Mathscape 10 ext.

- Ch09 Page 338 Friday, October 14, 2005 8:08 AM

This chapter at a glance

analyse two-stage events through constructing organised lists, tables

Chapter 9: Probability 339

9.1 Probability review

The probability of an event, A, is given by the formula:

340 Mathscape 10 Extension

Chapter 9: Probability 341

boys who are

342 Mathscape 10 Extension

Chapter 9: Probability 343

344 Mathscape 10 Extension

Chapter 9: Probability 345

a A student is chosen at random. What is the probability that he/she:

346 Mathscape 10 Extension

9.2 Independent compound events

Chapter 9: Probability 347

348 Mathscape 10 Extension

Chapter 9: Probability 349

Using our example of William’s game again we have:

350 Mathscape 10 Extension

Exercise 9.2 First Second Result

Chapter 9: Probability 351

3 Draw tree diagrams to create a list of all the possible

b An unbiased coin is tossed twice. What is the probability of:

4 Use the tables provided to calculate the required probabilities.

352 Mathscape 10 Extension

b Seven cards are labeled 1, 2, 3 …, 7. Another eight cards are labeled A, B, C, …, H.

Chapter 9: Probability 353

354 Mathscape 10 Extension

9 The spinner shown is spun four times. Orange

10 The spinner illustrated is spun three times.

Chapter 9: Probability 355

a What is the number of possible colour schemes for Rachael’s townhouse?

12 Salam is an archer. In a competition she fires just two arrows at

TRY THIS Party time

9.3 Dependent events

356 Mathscape 10 Extension

Chapter 9: Probability 357

358 Mathscape 10 Extension

ii Sports car Sedan 4WD Station wagon

c i All the outcomes marked * include use of the sports car.

Chapter 9: Probability 359

360 Mathscape 10 Extension

4 Two girls are chosen at random from a group of five—

Chapter 9: Probability 361

7 One hundred tickets are sold in a raffle.

362 Mathscape 10 Extension

9.4 Games and other applications

Chapter 9: Probability 363

364 Mathscape 10 Extension

Expected value = value of prize × probability of prize

Chapter 9: Probability 365

1 A hand of three cards is dealt from a pack of 52 cards.

366 Mathscape 10 Extension

Chapter 9: Probability 367

10 A group of cricketers attend a restaurant for their team’s Christmas party.