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AI Bayes Theorem

Bayes' theorem allows determining the probability of an event given uncertain knowledge by relating conditional probabilities and marginal probabilities. It calculates the posterior probability P(B|A) given the prior probability P(A) and likelihood P(B|A). Bayesian networks are probabilistic graphical models that represent conditional dependencies between random variables using a directed acyclic graph. Each node corresponds to a variable and arcs represent causal relationships. Bayesian networks use Bayes' theorem and joint probability distributions to answer probabilistic queries about events.

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Kollipara Kanakavardhini
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162 views10 pages

AI Bayes Theorem

Bayes' theorem allows determining the probability of an event given uncertain knowledge by relating conditional probabilities and marginal probabilities. It calculates the posterior probability P(B|A) given the prior probability P(A) and likelihood P(B|A). Bayesian networks are probabilistic graphical models that represent conditional dependencies between random variables using a directed acyclic graph. Each node corresponds to a variable and arcs represent causal relationships. Bayesian networks use Bayes' theorem and joint probability distributions to answer probabilistic queries about events.

Uploaded by

Kollipara Kanakavardhini
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© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Bayes' theorem:

Bayes' theorem is also known as Bayes' rule, Bayes' law, or Bayesian


reasoning, which determines the probability of an event with uncertain
knowledge.

In probability theory, it relates the conditional probability and marginal


probabilities of two random events.

Bayes' theorem was named after the British mathematician Thomas Bayes.


The Bayesian inference is an application of Bayes' theorem, which is
fundamental to Bayesian statistics.

It is a way to calculate the value of P(B|A) with the knowledge of P(A|B).

Bayes' theorem:
Bayes' theorem is also known as Bayes' rule, Bayes' law, or Bayesian
reasoning, which determines the probability of an event with uncertain
knowledge.

In probability theory, it relates the conditional probability and marginal


probabilities of two random events.

Bayes' theorem was named after the British mathematician Thomas Bayes.


The Bayesian inference is an application of Bayes' theorem, which is
fundamental to Bayesian statistics.

It is a way to calculate the value of P(B|A) with the knowledge of P(A|B).

Bayes' theorem allows updating the probability prediction of an event by


observing new information of the real world.

Example: If cancer corresponds to one's age then by using Bayes' theorem, we


can determine the probability of cancer more accurately with the help of age.
Bayes' theorem can be derived using product rule and conditional probability
of event A with known event B:

As from product rule we can write:

1. P(A ⋀ B)= P(A|B) P(B) or  

Similarly, the probability of event B with known event A:

1. P(A ⋀ B)= P(B|A) P(A)  

Equating right hand side of both the equations, we will get:

The above equation (a) is called as Bayes' rule or Bayes' theorem. This


equation is basic of most modern AI systems for probabilistic inference.

It shows the simple relationship between joint and conditional probabilities.


Here,

P(A|B) is known as posterior, which we need to calculate, and it will be read as


Probability of hypothesis A when we have occurred an evidence B.

P(B|A) is called the likelihood, in which we consider that hypothesis is true,


then we calculate the probability of evidence.

P(A) is called the prior probability, probability of hypothesis before


considering the evidence

P(B) is called marginal probability, pure probability of an evidence.

Example-1:
Question: what is the probability that a patient has diseases meningitis
with a stiff neck?

Given Data:

A doctor is aware that disease meningitis causes a patient to have a stiff neck,
and it occurs 80% of the time. He is also aware of some more facts, which are
given as follows:

o The Known probability that a patient has meningitis disease is 1/30,000.


o The Known probability that a patient has a stiff neck is 2%.

Let a be the proposition that patient has stiff neck and b be the proposition
that patient has meningitis. , so we can calculate the following as:

Bayesian Belief Network in artificial


intelligence
Bayesian belief network is key computer technology for dealing with
probabilistic events and to solve a problem which has uncertainty. We can
define a Bayesian network as:
"A Bayesian network is a probabilistic graphical model which represents a set
of variables and their conditional dependencies using a directed acyclic
graph."

It is also called a Bayes network, belief network, decision network,


or Bayesian model.

Bayesian networks are probabilistic, because these networks are built from
a probability distribution, and also use probability theory for prediction and
anomaly detection.

Real world applications are probabilistic in nature, and to represent the


relationship between multiple events, we need a Bayesian network. It can also
be used in various tasks including prediction, anomaly detection,
diagnostics, automated insight, reasoning, time series prediction,
and decision making under uncertainty.

Bayesian Network can be used for building models from data and experts
opinions, and it consists of two parts:

o Directed Acyclic Graph


o Table of conditional probabilities.

The generalized form of Bayesian network that represents and solve decision
problems under uncertain knowledge is known as an Influence diagram.

The generalized form of Bayesian network that represents and solve decision
problems under uncertain knowledge is known as an Influence diagram.

A Bayesian network graph is made up of nodes and Arcs (directed links),


where:
o Each node corresponds to the random variables, and a variable can
be continuous or discrete.
o Arc or directed arrows represent the causal relationship or conditional
probabilities between random variables. These directed links or arrows
connect the pair of nodes in the graph.
These links represent that one node directly influence the other node,
and if there is no directed link that means that nodes are independent
with each other
o In the above diagram, A, B, C, and D are random variables
represented by the nodes of the network graph.
o If we are considering node B, which is connected with node A
by a directed arrow, then node A is called the parent of Node
B.
o Node C is independent of node A.
The Bayesian network has mainly two components:

o Causal Component
o Actual numbers

Each node in the Bayesian network has condition probability distribution P(Xi |


Parent(Xi) ), which determines the effect of the parent on that node.

Bayesian network is based on Joint probability distribution and conditional


probability. So let's first understand the joint probability distribution:

Joint probability distribution:


If we have variables x1, x2, x3,....., xn, then the probabilities of a different
combination of x1, x2, x3.. xn, are known as Joint probability distribution.

P[x1, x2, x3,....., xn], it can be written as the following way in terms of the joint
probability distribution.

= P[x1| x2, x3,....., xn]P[x2, x3,....., xn]

= P[x1| x2, x3,....., xn]P[x2|x3,....., xn]....P[xn-1|xn]P[xn].

In general for each variable Xi, we can write the equation as:
P(Xi|Xi-1,........., X1) = P(Xi |Parents(Xi ))

Example: Harry installed a new burglar alarm at his home to detect burglary.


The alarm reliably responds at detecting a burglary but also responds for
minor earthquakes. Harry has two neighbors David and Sophia, who have
taken a responsibility to inform Harry at work when they hear the alarm. David
always calls Harry when he hears the alarm, but sometimes he got confused
with the phone ringing and calls at that time too. On the other hand, Sophia
likes to listen to high music, so sometimes she misses to hear the alarm. Here
we would like to cSolution:
o The Bayesian network for the above problem is given below. The
network structure is showing that burglary and earthquake is the parent
node of the alarm and directly affecting the probability of alarm's going
off, but David and Sophia's calls depend on alarm probability.
o The network is representing that our assumptions do not directly
perceive the burglary and also do not notice the minor earthquake, and
they also not confer before calling.
o The conditional distributions for each node are given as conditional
probabilities table or CPT.
o Each row in the CPT must be sum to 1 because all the entries in the
table represent an exhaustive set of cases for the variable.
o In CPT, a boolean variable with k boolean parents contains
2K probabilities. Hence, if there are two parents, then CPT will contain 4
probability values

List of all events occurring in this network:

o Burglary (B)
o Earthquake(E)
o Alarm(A)
o David Calls(D)
o Sophia calls(S)

We can write the events of problem statement in the form of probability: P[D,


S, A, B, E], can rewrite the above probability statement using joint probability
distribution:

P[D, S, A, B, E]= P[D | S, A, B, E]. P[S, A, B, E]

=P[D | S, A, B, E]. P[S | A, B, E]. P[A, B, E]

= P [D| A]. P [ S| A, B, E]. P[ A, B, E]


= P[D | A]. P[ S | A]. P[A| B, E]. P[B, E]

= P[D | A ]. P[S | A]. P[A| B, E]. P[B |E]. P[E]

ompute the probability of Burglary Alarm.

Problem:

Calculate the probability that alarm has sounded, but there is neither a
burglary, nor an earthquake occurred, and David and Sophia both called
the Harry.
From the formula of joint distribution, we can write the problem statement in
the form of probability distribution:

P(S, D, A, ¬B, ¬E) = P (S|A) *P (D|A)*P (A|¬B ^ ¬E) *P (¬B) *P (¬E).

= 0.75* 0.91* 0.001* 0.998*0.999

= 0.00068045.
Hence, a Bayesian network can answer any query about the domain by
using Joint distribution.

The semantics of Bayesian Network:

There are two ways to understand the semantics of the Bayesian network,
which is given below:

1. To understand the network as the representation of the Joint


probability distribution.

It is helpful to understand how to construct the network.

2. To understand the network as an encoding of a collection of


conditional independence statements.

It is helpful in designing inference procedure.

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