Chapter-5-Elementary Probability
Chapter-5-Elementary Probability
CHAPTER 5
5. ELEMENTARY PROBABILITY
5.1 Introduction
Probability theory is the foundation upon which the logic of inference is built.
It helps us to cope up with uncertainty.
In general, probability is the chance of an outcome of an experiment. It is the measure
of how likely an outcome is to occur.
5.2 Definitions of some probability terms
1. Experiment: Any process of observation or measurement or any process which
generates well defined outcome.
2. Probability Experiment: It is an experiment that can be repeated any number of
times under similar conditions and it is possible to enumerate the total number of outcomes
without predicting an individual out come. It is also called random experiment.
Example: If a fair die is rolled once it is possible to list all the possible outcomes
i.e.1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 but it is not possible to predict which outcome will
occur.
3. Outcome :The result of a single trial of a random experiment
4. Sample Space: Set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment
5. Event: It is a subset of sample space. It is a statement about one or more outcomes of a
random experiment .They are denoted by capital letters.
Example: Considering the above experiment let A be the event of odd numbers, B be
the event of even numbers, and C be the event of number 8.
Remark:
If S (sample space) has n members then there are exactly 2n subsets or
events.
6. Equally Likely Events: Events which have the same chance of occurring.
7. Complement of an Event: the complement of an event A means non- occurrence of
A and is denoted by contains those points of the sample space which don’t
belong to A.
8. Elementary Event: an event having only a single element or sample point.
9. Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events which cannot happen at the same time.
10. Independent Events: Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does not
affect the probability of the other occurring.
11. Dependent Events: Two events are dependent if the first event affects the outcome or
occurrence of the second event in a way the probability is changed.
Example: .What is the sample space for the following experiment
a) Toss a die one time.
b) Toss a coin two times.
c) A light bulb is manufactured. It is tested for its life length by time.
Solution
a) S={1,2,3,4,5,6}
b) S={(HH),(HT),(TH),(TT)}
c) S={t /t≥0}
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To list the outcomes of the sequence of events, a useful device called tree diagram is
used.
The addition rule
Suppose that the 1st procedure designed by 1 can be performed in n1 ways. Assume that 2nd
procedure designed by 2 can be performed in n2 ways.
suppose further more that, it is not possible that both procedures 1 and 2 are performed
together then the number of ways in which we can perform 1or 2 procedure is n1+n2 ways, and
also if we have another procedure that is designed by k with possible way of nk we can
conclude that there is n1+n2+…+nk possible ways.
Example: suppose we planning a trip and are deciding by bus and train transportation. If there
are 3 bus routes and 2 train routes to go from A to B. find the available routes for the trip.
Solution:
There are 3+2 =5 routes for someone to go from A to B.
Example 1
An air line has 6 flights from A to B, and 7 flights from B to C per day. If the flights are
to be made on separate days, in how many different ways can the airline offer from A to
C?
Solution: In operation 1 there are 6 flights from A to B, 7 flights are available to make
flight from B to C. Altogether there are 6*7 = 42 possible flights from A to C.
Example2
suppose that in a medical study patients are classified according to their blood type as
A, B , AB, and O; according to their RH factors as + or - and according to their blood
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pressure as high, normal or low ,then in how many different ways can a patient be
classified ?
Solution
The 1st classification done in 4 ways, the 2nd in 2 ways, and the 3rd in 3 ways. Thus
patient can be classified in 4*2*3 = 24 different ways.
Example 3
The digits 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 are to be used in 4 digit identification card. How many different
cards are possible if
a) Repetitions are permitted.
b) Repetitions are not permitted.
Solutions
a)
1st digit 2nd digit 3rd digit 4th digit
5 5 5 5
There are four steps
1. Selecting the 1st digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
2. Selecting the 2nd digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
3. Selecting the 3rd digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
4. Selecting the 4th digit, this can be made in 5 ways.
b)
Permutation
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3. The number of permutations of n objects in which k1 are alike k2 are alike ---- etc
is
Example:
1. Suppose we have a letters A,B, C, D
a) How many permutations are there taking all the four?
b) How many permutations are there two letters at a time?
2. How many different permutations can be made from the letters in the word
“CORRECTION”?
Solutions:
1.
a)
b)
2.
Exercises:
1. Six different statistics books, seven different physics books, and 3 different
Economics books are arranged on a shelf. How many different arrangements are
possible if;
i. The books in each particular subject must all stand together
ii. Only the statistics books must stand together
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2. If the permutation of the word WHITE is selected at random, how many of the
permutations
i. Begins with a consonant?
ii. Ends with a vowel?
iii. Has a consonant and vowels alternating?
Combination
Solutions:
Permutation Combination
AB BA CA DA AB BC
AC BC CB DB AC BD
AD BD CD DC AD DC
Note that in permutation AB is different from BA. But in combination AB is the same as BA.
Combination Rule
Examples:
1. In how many ways a committee of 5 people be chosen out of 9 people?
Solutions:
2. Among 15 clocks there are two defectives .In how many ways can an inspector chose
three of the clocks for inspection so that:
a) There is no restriction.
b) None of the defective clock is included.
c) Only one of the defective clocks is included.
d) Two of the defective clock is included.
Solutions:
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a) If there is no restriction select three clocks from 15 clocks and this can be
done in :
Exercises:
1. Out of 5 Mathematician and 7 Statistician a committee consisting of 2
Mathematician and 3 Statistician is to be formed. In how many ways this can
be done if
a) There is no restriction
b) One particular Statistician should be included
c) Two particular Mathematicians can not be included on the committee.
2. If 3 books are picked at random from a shelf containing 5 novels, 3 books of
poems, and a dictionary, in how many ways this can be done if
a) There is no restriction.
b) The dictionary is selected?
c) 2 novels and 1 book of poems are selected?
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Examples:
1. A fair die is tossed once. What is the probability of getting
a) Number 4?
b) An odd number?
c) An even number?
d) Number 8?
Solutions:
First identify the sample space, say S
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Solutions:
Exercises:
1. What is the probability that a waitress will refuse to serve alcoholic beverages to
only three minors if she randomly checks the I.D’s of five students from among
ten students of which four are not of legal age?
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Example: If records show that 60 out of 100,000 bulbs produced are defective. What is the
probability of a newly produced bulb to be defective?
Solution:
Let A be the event that the newly produced bulb is defective.
Axiomatic Approach:
Let E be a random experiment and S be a sample space associated with E. With each event
A a real number called the probability of A satisfies the following properties called axioms of
probability or postulates of probability.
1.
2.
3. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, the probability that one or the other occur
equals the sum of the two probabilities. i. e.
4.
5.
6. P (ø) =0, ø is the impossible event.
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AUB AnB A
In general
Example: Suppose we have two red and three white balls in a bag
1. Draw a ball with replacement
Let A= the event that the first draw is red
The conditional probability of an event A given that B has already occurred, denoted
is
=
Remark: (1)
(2)
Examples
1. For a student enrolling at freshman at certain university the probability is 0.25 that
he/she will get scholarship and 0.75 that he/she will graduate. If the probability is
0.2 that he/she will get scholarship and will also graduate. What is the probability
that a student who get a scholarship graduate?
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2. If the probability that a research project will be well planned is 0.60 and the
probability that it will be well planned and well executed is 0.54, what is the
probability that it will be well executed given that it is well planned?
Solution; Let A= the event that a research project will be well
Planned
B= the event that a research project will be well
Executed
3. A lot consists of 20 defective and 80 non-defective items from which two items
are chosen without replacement. Events A & B are defined as A = the first item
chosen is defective, B = the second item chosen is defective
a. What is the probability that both items are defective?
b. What is the probability that the second item is defective?
Solution; Exercise
Note; for any two events A and B the following relation holds.
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