MODULE 2

SYLLABUS:
Hazard types and hazard mapping; Vulnerability types and their assessment- physical, social,
economic, and environmental vulnerability. Disaster risk assessment – approaches, procedures

HAZARD:

A hazard is a situation that has the potential to cause damage ‘hazard’ means ‘chance’. Hazard
becomes a disaster when risk associated with it are not managed well.
Example: People living in coastal area live in hazardous situation as cyclone may strike them any
time, Construction workers working in heights are in a hazardous situation of falling. It may lead to
injuries and even death.
Three states of hazard are:-
1. Dormant
2. Armed
3. Active
Dormant: A dormant hazard is one which has the capacity for potential threat but presently does not
affect people or property. People living on the banks of a river are on dormant hazard of floods
during heavy rain. They are not presently subject to damage but face a threat of possible flooding.
Armed: A state of armed hazard occurs when people are likely to be subjected to a threat because
the hazard is developing. A cyclone moving towards a habitat is a typical example.
Active: A hazard is said to be active when it strikes a habitat When this happens it is no longer a
hazard but a disaster.

CLASSIFICATION OF HAZARDS:
Based on the origin hazard is classified into:
1. Biological Hazard: Process or phenomenon of organic origin or conveyed by biological
vectors, including pathogenic micro-organisms, toxins and bioactive substances. Examples of
biological hazards include epidemic and pandemic diseases, plant or animal contagion, insect
or other animal plagues and infestations.
2. Geological Hazards: Geological process or phenomenon that may cause loss of life, injury
or other health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and
economic disruption, or environmental damage. Geological hazards include internal earth

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 processes, such as earthquakes, volcanic activity and emissions, and related geophysical
processes such as mass movements, landslides, rockslides, surface collapses, and debris or
mud flows. Hydro-meteorological factors are important contributors to some of these
processes. Tsunamis are difficult to categorize; although they are triggered by undersea
earthquakes and other geological events, they essentially become oceanic process that is
manifested as a coastal water- related hazard.
3. Hydro-metrological Hazards: Process or phenomenon of atmospheric, hydrological or
oceanographic nature that may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property
damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or environmental
damage. Hydro-meteorological hazards include tropical cyclones (also known as typhoons
and hurricanes), thunderstorms, hailstorms, tornados, blizzards, heavy snowfall, avalanches,
and coastal storm surges, floods including flash floods, drought, heat waves and cold spells.
Hydro meteorological conditions also can be a factor in other hazards such as landslides, wild
land fires, locust plagues, epidemics, and in the transport and dispersal of toxic substances
and volcanic eruption material.
4. Anthropogenic Hazards: Hazards induced entirely or predominantly by humans, including
technological and socio- natural hazards. Man-made hazards (also known as human-induced
hazards or anthropogenic hazards) are a collective term that covers the range of hazards that
result from human activities. They are distinguished from natural hazards. The range of man-
made hazards includes technological and socio- natural hazards, and those that may arise
from the relationships within and between communities.
5. Natural Hazards: Natural process or phenomenon that may cause loss of life, injury or other
health impacts, property damage, loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic
disruption, or environmental damage. Natural hazards are a sub-set of all hazards. The term is
used to describe actual hazards as well as the latent hazard conditions that may give rise to
future events. Natural hazards can be characterized by their magnitude or intensity, speed of
onset, duration, and area of extent. For example, earthquakes have short durations and usually
affect a relatively small region, whereas droughts are slow to develop and fade away and
often affect large regions. In some cases hazards may be coupled, as in the flood caused by a
hurricane or the tsunami that is created by an earthquake.
6. Radiation Hazards: Radiation hazards are due to electromagnetic radiation from many
sources such as nuclear accidents, nuclear waste, mobile phones or transmission towers. They
are very harmful and can have immediate or long-term effects depending upon the type,
exposure and amount of radiation.

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HAZARD MAP:
A hazard map is a map that highlights areas that are affected by or are vulnerable to a
particular hazard. They are typically created for natural hazards, such as earthquakes, volcanoes,
landslides, flooding and tsunamis. Hazard maps help prevent serious damage and deaths. The
purpose of hazard mapping is to gather together different hazard related information in one map.
Hazard mapping involves a graphical representation of the location, magnitude and temporal
characteristics of hazards on 2 or 3 dimensional surfaces.
Two objectives of hazard map are:-
• To make the people of the region aware of the hazards likely in the region.
• To help disaster managers and other stakeholdersrs to plan and be prepared for the disaster as
and when it occurs.
Methods to hazard information collection:
• Undertaking field travel and “overflights” of the study area
• Contacting local officials and community leaders
• Maintaining contact with appropriate national planning officers
• Determining the availability of existing data
• Using experienced staff members or consultants to get an overview

Data Requirements of Hazard Mapping:

Spatial characteristics such as location, distribution and dimension; temporal (duration and speed of
onset) and magnitude are the major data requirements for hazard mapping. Such information can be
obtained through the following sources:
1. Base maps: Base maps represent topographic layers of data such as elevation, roads, water
bodies, cultural features, and utilities. It must be plan metric, i.e. a representation of
information on a plane in true geographic relationship and with measurable horizontal
distances.
2. Remotely sensed images: Satellite images are sources of readily available information of
locations on the earth’s surface compared to conventional ground survey methods of mapping
that are labour intensive and time-consuming.
3. Field data: Through the advances in technology, ground surveying methods using electronic
survey systems like Total Station, the global positioning systems (GPS), and Laser Scanners,
have all greatly increased opportunities for data capture in the field.

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Cartographic Representation of Hazard:
Maps are the most operative way to convey actual and relative location. Maps can be simply defined
as flat geographic portrayals of information through the use of symbols. Such approaches help
hazard maps not to just convey the existence of natural hazards, but also to note their location,
severity, and the likelihood of occurrence in an accurate, clear, and convenient way.
The application of cartography in hazard mapping will eventually lead to the creation of:
Base map which contains sufficient geographic reference information to orient the user to the
location of the hazard.
Scale and coverage which draw the relationship between linear measurement on the map and the
actual dimension on the ground.
Small-scale maps show less detail for a large area and are applicable for regional development
planning. Large-scale maps, on the other hand, reveal more detail for a small area and are more
suitable for local or community-level development planning.
The scale used for a hazard map is dependent upon not only the hazard information to be shown, but
also upon the scale of the base map.
Therefore, the choice of scale for a hazard map may consider the following issues:-
• Number of hazards to be displayed at a go
• The hazard elements necessary to be displayed
• Range of relative severity of hazards to be shown
• The area of interest to cover
• The use of the map with other planning documents
• Function of the map, whether it is to be an index or detail map

Types of symbols: On a hazard map, symbols are used to represent reality. Symbols are selected for
their legibility and clarity and/or map production characteristics. Location can be depicted using one
of these basic geometric symbols – point, line or an area. Points are more preferred for displaying
volcanoes, while areas have been used for showing flooding.

Approaches to Hazard Mapping:

Many approaches to hazard mapping have been developed. In all such approaches used, the key
factors of consideration in the spatial analysis (valuation of likelihood losses of hazards) is
appreciating that:
• all components of a hazard assessment vary in space and time

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 • as the consequences of hazards are usually large, it is prudent to include vulnerability
and risk reduction strategies in the process
1. Hazard Mapping using GIS
• GIS (Geographic Information System) is increasingly being utilized for hazard mapping and
analysis, as well as for the application of disaster risk management measures
• The nature and capability of GIS provides an excellent basis for processing and presenting
hazard information in the form of maps
• GIS is very useful in arranging a high volume of data necessary to produce a hazard map
• The three-dimensional representation available in modern GIS offers opportunity to model
hazard
• GIS also provides various methodologies in creating and analyzing hazards.

Fig.1. Hazard Mapping using GIS

2. Participatory Mapping
• Participatory mapping is a technique that allows for the integration of local level participation
and knowledge in the map production and decision taken process.
• It is an interactive process that draws on local people’s knowledge and allows them to create

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 visual and non-visual data to explore social problems, opportunities and questions.
• In participatory mapping, the main objectives are to:
1. Collect evidence assets of the study area and issues during the mapping process
2. Interpret the study area mapping experience and related experience to answer questions
that have been developed about the study area
3. Develop a presentation that synthesizes the participatory mapping experience and
presents the conclusion and possible questions for further investigation.

How to Conduct Participatory Mapping??

Whenever participatory mapping is to be conducted, the foremost issue of consideration is the ‘goal
of the work’ which outlines the nature and essence of activities to be done.
Once the goal has been decided, the next stage is the organization of activities of participatory
mapping in two blocks – Preparation and Implementation
The Preparation involves scouting and designing survey instruments, materials, and directions.
The Implementation may be organized into sessions –
1. Preparation of participants or people involved in the participatory mapping activity
2. Undertake participatory mapping field trip
3. Make presentations
4. Carry out debriefing exercises

Applications of Hazard Maps:

Hazard maps have various applications that may be broadly captured as in spatial planning, risk
reduction measures, instruments used in emergency planning and raising awareness among the
population.
• Spatial planning: Hazard maps provide a basis for communal and district spatial planning
processes (e.g. definition of hazard zones in development plans and formulation of building
regulations)
• Risk reduction measures: Hazard maps assist in the localisation and dimensioning of hazard
protection measures (e.g. flood protection structures, avalanche barriers, etc.)
• Instruments used in emergency planning: Hazard maps indicate where the biggest risks arise
and the events most likely to occur. This information can be used as a source of orientation in
emergency planning

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 • Raising awareness among the population: Hazard maps help to demonstrate potential risks to
the population and to increase awareness of eventual protective measures

VULNERABILITY:
It denotes the characteristics and circumstances of an individual, community or area that could be
subjected to harm from a hazardous situation.
There are four types of vulnerability,
1. Physical Vulnerability
2. Economic Vulnerability
3. Social Vulnerability
4. Environmental Vulnerability
In a disaster situation, the vulnerable population includes the poor, women and children, and the
disabled. In general, they are the most affected. The vulnerable areas are those which are very close
to the disaster site. In the case of a bomb explosion, assets and people living or present near the site
of the blast are the most seriously affected than people far off from the area.
Factors of Vulnerability:
• Poorly designed and maintained infrastructure
• Inadequate safety awareness and safety measures for assets
• Lack of awareness and adequate information about hazards and risk
• Inappropriate management of risks identified and lack of preparedness to face hazards
• Lack of proper management of resources and environment

Types of Vulnerability:
1. Physical Vulnerability: Physical Vulnerability may be determined by aspects such as
population density levels, remoteness of a settlement, the site, design and materials used for
critical infrastructure and for housing. Physical vulnerability also includes impacts on the
human population in terms of injuries or deaths.
Example: Wooden homes are less likely to collapse in an earthquake, but are more vulnerable
to fire.
2. Social Vulnerability: Social Vulnerability refers to the inability of people, organizations and
societies to withstand adverse impacts of hazards due to characteristics inherent in society. It
is linked to the level of well-being of individuals, communities and society. It includes
aspects related to levels of literacy and education, the existence of peace and security, access

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 to basic human rights, systems of good governance, social equity, positive traditional values,
customs and ideological beliefs and overall collective organizational systems.
Example: When flood occurs, elderly people and children are unable to protect themselves
3. Economic Vulnerability: The level of vulnerability is highly dependent upon the economic
status of individuals, communities, and nations. The poor are usually more vulnerable to
disasters because they lack the resources to build sturdy structures in their homes and put
other engineering measures in place to protect themselves from being negatively impacted by
disasters.
Example: Poorer families may live in low-lying slum areas because they cannot afford to live
in safer (more expensive) areas. They are more vulnerable when a flood occurs and their
belongings or even their homes get washed away.
4. Environmental Vulnerability: Natural resource depletion and resource degradation are key
aspects of environmental vulnerability.
Example: People living in hilly areas become vulnerable because of environmental
degradation. Their habitats have to necessarily be on hill slopes due to the terrain features.
Deforestation and cutting of trees on hill slopes makes them vulnerable to hazards from
landslides.

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT:
This refers to the quantification of the degree of loss or susceptibility to an element at risk. The
assessment is essential when conducting a risk assessment. Vulnerability assessments have not
always been a part of risk assessment, but in recent times, they have become indispensable due to the
recognition that disasters occur as a result of interactions between hazards and vulnerable elements.
Variations exist in the method of quantification of vulnerability based on the following:-
• Type of vulnerability being measured, that is, it is physical, social, economic or ecological
• The scale at which vulnerability is being measured, whether at the individual, household or
community level
• The type of hazard. Different hazard types call for different methods of quantification as not
all methods of vulnerability quantification are used for the different hazard types
Data needed for vulnerability assessment and their usefulness:
• Historical data on the magnitude of a hazard and the level of damage it caused to specific
elements such as buildings built from sand Crete or wood.
• Socio-economic data such as level of education, access to pipe borne water, access to secure

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 shelter, social networks, sanitation, income level, access to credit, access to land, access to
technology etc. The emphasis here is on the level of access that an individual, household or
community has to various assets.
• Level of exposure to hazardous conditions.
• Data on policies, institutions, and processes which influence capacity of individuals,
households and communities.
Physical Vulnerability:
✓ Buildings: The vulnerabilities of buildings are based on the location of the site, the design,
materials used for construction, construction techniques used, and its proximity with other
buildings
✓ Infrastructure: In considering infrastructure, three broad groups are to be considered - they
include transportation systems like roads, railways, bridges, airports, etc., utilities like water
supply, sewage and power supply, and communication network.
✓ Other critical facilities: Critical facilities are vital to the functioning of the societies during
times of disaster and are considered as lifelines. Examples include hospitals and other
essential services; emergency services; communications systems; buildings and structures
with cultural importance; and certain structures such as dams that are essential to the long-
term sustainability of the economy.

Group Method Description

Based on the collection and analysis of statistics of
damage that occurred in recent and historic events.
Analysis of observed damage
Relating vulnerability to different hazard
intensities.
Based on asking groups of experts on vulnerability
to give their opinions. Eg: the percent damage they
expect for different structural types having
Empirical Expert opinion different intensities of hazard. This is meant to
come to a good assessment of the vulnerability.
Methods Method is time consuming and subjective. Re-
assessments of vulnerability after building
upgrading or repair are difficult to accommodate.
Method using a questionnaire with different
parameters to assess the potential damages in
relation to different hazard levels. The score
Score Assignment assignment method is easier to update. Eg: if we
think about earthquake vulnerability before and
after retrofitting.

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 Studying the behaviour of buildings and structures
based on engineering design criteria analysing.
Eg: seismic load and to derive the likelihood of
Simple Analytical Methods failure, using computer based methods from
geotechnical engg. (shake tables and wind tunnels
Analytical
as well as computer simulation techniques).
Methods
Using complex methods. It is time-consuming,
needs a lot of detailed data and will be used for
Detailed Analytical Methods
assessment of individual structures.

Table.1. Methods of measuring physical vulnerability

Socio–Economic Vulnerability:
Socio-economic vulnerability is indicator-based and can be assessed by analysing the level of
exposure and coping mechanisms of individuals, households and communities. Analysis of exposure
and coping is done taking into consideration policies and processes and adaptation strategies of
affected individuals, households and communities.
✓ Certain groups of people like single parent families, pregnant or lactating women, mentally
and physically handicapped people, children and the elderly require special attention and
focus.
✓ Certain other groups like migrants, people residing at remote areas also require special
attention. Risk perceptions for these groups have to be assessed, and the required awareness
programs have to be initiated
✓ Direct losses potential: Direct losses could include damage or destruction of physical and
social infrastructure and the likely cost incurred to repair or replace it. It could also include
costs related to the damages to crops and other means of production.
✓ Indirect losses potential: Indirect losses include the impact due to loss of production,
employment, income generating activities, and the likely inflation in the society. While direct
cost is easy to calculate, assessment of indirect costs is difficult.

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Methods of measuring Socio – Economic Vulnerability:

Identify the elements for the

vulnerability assessment

EXPOSURE
Rank the identified individuals, households
or communities based on their level of
exposure to a given hazard

Analyze
Analyze policies,
Adaptation Select a set of socio – economic indicators institutions,
Strategies at appropriate scale cutting across the five processes
types of livelihood assets

COPING
Rank the individuals, households or
communities based on their level of access
to these indicators

LOW MODERATE HIGH

VUNERABILITY VULNERABILITY VULNERABILITY
Low Exposure Moderate Exposure High Exposure
High Coping Moderate Coping Low Coping

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 Human Capital Natural Capital Social Capital Physical Capital Financial Capital

Infrastructure
-Transport– roads,
vehicles etc
Health Land and produce Networks and -Secure shelter & Savings
connections buildings water
supply &
sanitation
-Energy
communications
Tools and
technology
Nutrition Water & aquatic Patronage Tools and
resources equipment for
production
Seed
Education Forest products Neighbourhoods Remittances

Knowledge and Wildlife Kinship Pensions

skills
Capacity to work Wild foods & Relations of trust Wages
fibres and mutual
support
Capacity to adapt Biodiversity Formal and Dividends
informal groups
Environmental Common rules Return on
services and sanctions investments

Table.2. Socio – Economic Indicators

METHODS OF REPRESENTING VULNERABILITY:

1. Vulnerability indices: Based on indicators of vulnerability; mostly no direct relation with the
different hazard intensities. These are mostly used for expressing social, economic and
environmental vulnerability.
2. Vulnerability table: The relation between hazard intensity and degree of damage can also be
given in a table.
3. Vulnerability curves: These are constructed on the basis of the relation between hazard
intensities and damage data
4. Relative curves: They show the percentage of property value as the damaged share of the
total value to hazard intensity.

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 5. Absolute curves: Show the absolute amount of damage depending on the hazard intensity,
i.e., the value of the asset is already integrated in the damage function;
6. Fragility curves: Provide the probability for a particular group of elements at risk to be in or
exceeding a certain damage state under a given hazard intensity.

DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT:

Disaster Risk: It is the pobability of serious damage, deaths and injuries occuring as a result of a
potentially damaging hazard interacting with vulnerable elements such as people and properties.

Fig.2. Disaster Risk Assessment

Disaster Risk Assessment: It is a methodology to determine the likelihood and magnitude of
damage or other consequences by analyzing potential hazards and evaluating existing conditions of
vulnerability that jointly could likely harm exposed people, properties, services, livelihoods and the
environment they depend on.
There are two main components for Risk Assessment:
1. Risk analysis: The use of available information to estimate the risk caused by hazards to
individuals or populations, property, or the environment. Risk analyses generally contain the
following steps: Hazard identification, hazard assessment, elements at risk/exposure,
vulnerability assessment and risk estimation.
2. Risk evaluation: This is the stage at which values and judgement enter the decision process
by including the importance of the risk and associated social, environmental, and economic
consequences, in order to identify a range of alternatives for managing the risk.

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Contemporary approaches to risk assessments:

1.Multi-hazard:
The same area may be threatened by different types of hazards. Each of these hazard types has
different areas that might be impacted by hazard scenarios. Each of the hazard scenarios also might
have different magnitudes. For instance, water depth and velocity in the case of flooding,
acceleration and ground displacement in the case of earthquakes. These hazard magnitudes would
also have different impacts on the various elements at risk, and therefore require different
vulnerability curves.

2. Multi-sectoral:
Hazards will impact different types of elements at risk.

3.Multi-level:
Risk assessment can be carried out at different levels. Depending on the objectives of the risk study,
it is possible to differentiate between national, regional, district and local policies, plans and
activities to see how they have contributed to increased or reduced risk, their strengths and
weaknesses in dealing with risks, and what resources are available at the different levels to reduce
risks.

4.Multi-stakeholder:
Risk assessment should involve the relevant stakeholders, which can be individuals, businesses,
organizations and authorities.

5.Multi-phase:
Risk assessment should consider actions for response, recovery, mitigation and preparedness.

6.Qualitative methods:
This involves qualitative descriptions or characterization of risk in terms of high, moderate and low.
These are used when the hazard information does not allow us to express the probability of
occurrence, or it is not possible to estimate the magnitude. This approach has widespread application
in the profiling of vulnerability using participatory methodologies. Risk matrices can be constructed
to show qualitative risk. A risk matrix shows on its y-axis probability of an event occurring, while on
the x-axis potential loss. The probability is described categorically as low, medium and high, while
the potential loss is also described similarly.

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 Fig.3. Example of a qualitative risk matrix, combining probability of the event with the potential
losses

7.Semi-quantitative Methods:
These techniques express risk in terms of risk indices. These are numerical values, often ranging
between 0 and 1. They do not have a direct meaning of expected losses; they are merely relative
indications of risk. The main difference between qualitative and semi-quantitative approaches is the
assignment of weights under certain criteria which provide numbers as outcome instead of
qualitative classes
The semi-quantitative estimation for risk assessment is found useful in the following situations:-
• As an initial screening process to identify hazards and risks
• When the level of risk (pre-assumed) does not justify the time and effort
• Where the possibility of obtaining numerical data is limited
This approach could be adapted to cover large areas.
Semi-quantitative risk can also be conceptualized as:-
Risk = (Hazard) x (Vulnerability / Capacity)
It allows incorporating the multi-dimensional aspects of vulnerability and capacity.

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8.Quantitative Methods:
This aims at estimating the spatial and temporal probability of risk and its magnitude. In this method,
the combined effects, in terms of losses for all possible scenarios that might occur are calculated.
In this approach, risk is perceived as follows:-
Risk = (Hazard) x (Vulnerability) x (Amount of elements at risk)
The amount of elements at risk are characterized the way in which the risk is presented. The hazard
component in the equation actually refers to the probability of occurrence of a hazardous
phenomenon with a given intensity within a specified period of time. Vulnerability is limited to
physical vulnerability.

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