The Strategic Maritime Environment of the Indian

Ocean: An Analysis of the Challenges and Prospects

for Pakistan
Sehrish Qayuum*
Abstract

Strategic maritime environment of the Indian Ocean (IO) is

rigorously changing in the course of last two decades.
Regional focus has sharply shifted from territorial to maritime
borders, largely impacting transnational ties in wake of
defense and security measures. This insight covers background
of strategic maritime environment of the Indian Ocean along
with shifting trends after the launch of China’s “Belt Road
Initiative”. The discourse also covers impact of COVID crisis on
maritime environment of IO and recent tactical reorientation
of global powers in the region. Furthermore, Strategic analysis
of maritime power in the Indian Ocean is done in calibration of
the various political narrative. USA, China, India, Australia, and
Pakistan are taken under keen sight of policy analysis.
Opportunities and challenges for Pakistan in lieu of this
discussion is penned down categorically. Development of
Maritime Security Strategy of Pakistan (MSSP) with
commensurate needs is brought focus under as a result of the
deliberate policy and maritime environment study of IOR.
Cogent recommendations are offered to Pakistan Navy and
the Government to fill the lapse on way to emerging naval
power of the Western Indian Ocean. It is a qualitative
research, employing descriptive chronological discussion,
based on targeted theme in the larger perspective.

Keywords: BRI, Defense and Security, Indian Ocean, Maritime

Environment, Policy Analysis
_______________________________

* Dr Sehrish Qayyum, is Assistant Professor at Pakistan Navy War College (PNWC)

Lahore and reachable at [email protected]
130 Sehrish Qayuum

1. Background of Strategic Maritime Environment in the Indian

Ocean (IO)

In the recent course of years, the Indian Ocean Region (IOR)

emerged as a strategic hub of navies of many countries. It has
exacerbated the clashes among the riparian and other Asian states for
ascending influence. Clash of hegemons in IO is taking surge as USA
and China appears to be strategic rivals. One very reason for active
military presence of the USA in IO is to balance the power equation in
the region due to the rising shadows of Chinese control1. Long-going
US-Iran rivalry and Middle East concerns are also reasons behind US
interest in the Indian Ocean. Strategic overlooking exposits that India
aims its emergence as a regional power with no better option
available than the prospect alliance with the US for accomplished
economic and military intentions 2. While maritime security strategies
and development of modern Australian navy may give a balancing
effect to the rising power expression in IOR3.

Above all connectivity is the major concern in the Indian Ocean

which raises clashes, competitions, and progressive ways. Today the
alliance maneuvering in IOR is an anarchic shift in the structural
reorganization of a hegemon. According to Alexander Wendt
coalitions are aiming for power balance and ultimate superiority4.
Within BRI, three major corridors i.e. CPEC (China Pakistan Economic
Corridor), CICPEC (China-Indochina Peninsula Economic Corridor),
BCIM (Bangladesh, China, India and Myanmar Economic Corridor)
routes outspreading in IO are changing prospect strategic
environment and security trends. Extended travel time and distance

1
M. K. Bhadrakumar, “US-India Military Alliance Comes into View,” Asia Times, October 26,
2020, https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/us-india-military-alliance-comes-into-view/.
2
Ibid.
3
Serge DeSilva Ranasinghe, “Future of Navy Modernisation: An Interview with Rear Admiral
Mark Campbell,” Australian Institute of International Affairs, July 30, 2014,
https://www.internationalaffairs.org.au/australianoutlook/future-of-navy-modernisation-
the-royal-australian-navy-looks-to-the-future/.
4
Alexander Wendt, “Anarchy Is What States Make of It: The Social Construction of Power
Politics,” International Organization 46, no. 2 (1992): P., 39, https://www.jstor.org/stable/
2706858?seq=1.
P-JMR-VOL III, I (2021) DOI: 10.53963/pjmr.2021.001.3 131

will be circumvented with the initiation of these routes and one

country supremacy as an economic giant5.

On the other side, Chinese dependency on the Strait of Malacca

seems implausible to end as currently 80% of Chinese oil trade is
done through the route6. While in comparison, fully functional CPEC
needs a decade to meet the responsibilities of the Chinese rising
economy. For the purpose, China made a strategic security plan for
the Indian Ocean region by increasing naval bases i.e., Sittwe,
Chittagong, Hambantota, Djibouti, and prospect trade base in
Gwadar-about 500km away from world’s most strategic chokepoint
of Hormuz7. More than US$1 trillion Chinese investment in BRI has
raised a competitive environment and security needs in the Indian
Ocean region within the last decade.

Strategically foreseeing, China’s envisioned planning may contain

India in the first place from northern borders to open edges with the
Indian Ocean. Further due to US-Iran rivalry and increasing Indo-US
alliance under LEMOA (Logistics Exchange Memorandum of
Agreement) has kicked out India from Iran’s Chahbahar port
investment plans8. On the other hand, the USA could be contained by
choking at Gwadar deep-sea strategic port in a trade movement

5
Francois De Soyres et al., “How the Belt and Road Initiative Could Reduce Trade Costs |
VOX, CEPR Policy Portal,” Voxeu.org, 2018, https://voxeu.org/article/how-belt-and-road-
initiative-could-reduce-trade-costs.
6
Alisha Dalvi, “The Malacca Dilemma: A Hindrance to Chinese Ambitions in the
21st Century–Berkeley Political Review,” Berkeley.edu, August 26, 2019,
https://bpr.berkeley.edu/2019/08/26/the-malacca-dilemma-a-hindrance-to-chinese-
ambitions-in-the-21st-century/.
7
Jayanna Krupakr, “China’s Naval Base(S) in the Indian Ocean—Signs of a Maritime Grand
Strategy?,” Taylor & Francis Online 14, no. 3 (March 16, 2017),
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09700161.2017.1296622?journalCode=rs
an20.
8
Saad Rasool, “India’s Chabahar Debacle,” The Nation, July 18, 2020,
https://nation.com.pk/19-Jul-2020/india-s-chabahar-debacle.
132 Sehrish Qayuum

towards the Persian Gulf and via active military presence at Djibouti 9
anchorage.

BRI is China’s magnificent effort for increasing influence which

Delhi tried to counter by the establishment of Information Fusion
Center (IFC)10 to gather information via linking coastal radar chains in
the Indian Ocean and IORA allied countries. Modi’s up and down
traveling within coastal states of the Indian Ocean for enhanced
economic cooperation, connectivity and joint security measures is a
practical shift of “Look East” to “Act East”11 policy. The entry of SSBN
and Arihant-class SLBM’s may add to security threats in the sensitive
politico-military zone of IO12. Alliances in IOR among independent
deployer states is paving way for freedom of navigation for secured
trade beside great power competition in the region.

The United States of America sees an assortment of potential

dangers to its security in the Indian Ocean Region, wavering between
pressures from a regional power to non-state players. There are
steady security stresses, swaying from SLOCs security to increment in
nonconventional weapons13. The danger of Islamic expansion is an
irritating point significantly. Increasing China’s Stealth technology i.e.

9
Max Bearak, “In Strategic Djibouti, a Microcosm of China’s Growing Foothold in Africa,”
Washington Post, December 30, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/in-
strategic-djibouti-a-microcosm-of-chinas-growing-foothold-in-
africa/2019/12/29/a6e664ea-beab-11e9-a8b0-7ed8a0d5dc5d_story.html.
10
“Ports and Partnerships: Delhi Invests in Indian Ocean Leadership,” Asia Maritime
Transparency Initiative, December 5, 2019, https://amti.csis.org/ports-and-partnerships-
delhi-invests-in-indian-ocean-leadership/.
11
K V Kesavan, “India’s ‘Act East’ Policy and Regional Cooperation,” ORF (Observational
Research Foundation, February 14, 2020), https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/indias-
act-east-policy-and-regional-cooperation-61375/.
12
Prakhar Gupta, “India’s Nuclear Submarine Programme Has Reached a New Milestone.
Here’s All about It,” Swarajyamag, February 28, 2020, https://swarajyamag.com/
defence/indias-nuclear-submarine-programme-has-reached-a-new-milestone-heres-all-
about-it.
13
Swadesh Rana, “A Permanent U.S. Presence in the Indian Ocean,” Taylor & Francis 3,
no. 2 (August 19, 2009), https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/097001679094
21487?src=recsys.
P-JMR-VOL III, I (2021) DOI: 10.53963/pjmr.2021.001.3 133

high frequency radars, J-20 and Jian-10 aircrafts14 may choke down
and cause heavy loss to US warfighting line. An increase in the
devoted US Indo-pacific command’s defense capitals and the absence
of British and French interests may cause a power imbalance in IOR 15.
The vacuum is probably going to create a ripple in the US safeguard
resources from the North to South Pacific by moving 60 percent of its
maritime armada to Hawaii.

Considerable power imbalance may be filled by US partners like

Australia, India, and possibly Indonesia, who can accept more
prominent obligations for IO security in the US absence16. Maximum
utilization of the Sea Lines of Communications (SLOCs) and
continuous power show in warm waters of IO might initiate global
competition and influencing regional affairs. The conduction of
revenge policies and military operations in terrains of Afghanistan
after the 9/11 incident may pose serious security threats to the
military powers present in IO particularly for the USA. Reorientation
of power block after recognizing Israel by UAE and Saudi Arabia
creates strategic ripple in power show 17.

Maritime security concerns i.e., SLOCs protection, maritime

chokepoints’ security measures, Pak-India conflicts, Sino-India rivalry
are threatening the stability of the region which may decide prospect
domination of IOR. The Indian Ocean is connecting seven seas i.e., the
Mediterranean and Red Seas, Indian Ocean, Persian Gulf, China Sea,

14
“Does China’s J-20 Rival Other Stealth Fighters?,” ChinaPower Project, February 15, 2017,
https://chinapower.csis.org/china-chengdu-j-20/.
15
David Michel and Russell Sticklor, “Indian Ocean Rising: Maritime Security and Policy
Challenges,” July 2012, https://www.stimson.org/wp-content/files/file-attachments/
Book_IOR_2_1.pdf.
16
Special Reports, “China’s Vast Fleet Is Tipping the Balance against U.S. In the Pacific,”
Reuters, April 30, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/china-army-
navy/.
17
Al Jazeera, “How the World Reacted to UAE, Israel Normalising Diplomatic Ties,”
Aljazeera.com (Al Jazeera, August 15, 2020), https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/
8/15/how-the-world-reacted-to-uae-israel-normalising-diplomatic-ties.
134 Sehrish Qayuum

and the West and East African Seas18. It increased the geostrategic
and geopolitical importance of these waters as future deciding factor
for international politics and trade economy ensuring the 21st
century as a century of Asian states.

This research is qualitative in nature employing descriptive

chronological discussion targeting theme in the larger perspective. It
opinions policy options for various stakeholders of IO for prospect
regional security dimensions. As right after AUKUS IO environment is
likely to take new strategic power shifts, a trilateral security pact
between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States,
announced on 15 September 2021 for the Indo-Pacific region.

2. Shifting trends in IO Maritime Environment after BRI

Under the shadow of the Gramscian principle of hegemony, China

is emerging as the Capitalist state of the Indian Ocean Region with the
launch of the Belt Road Initiative (BRI). Wherein dealing with the
extra-regional powers by strategic military force while on the other
hand driving civil society by consent with socio-economic driving
factors19. Shifting of the epicenter of politics from Euro-Atlantic to
Indo-Pacific region has been embraced with global geostrategic and
politico-economic significance20. US efforts for power prevalence and
Chinese economic and military upswing in the region may threaten
the unilateral navigation of Washington on the international
hegemony theater.

18
Science Reference Section Library of Congress, “What Are the Seven Seas?,” Library of
Congress, Washington, D.C. 20540 USA, November 19, 2019, https://www.loc.gov/
everyday-mysteries/item/what-are-the-seven-seas/.
19
Richard Howson and Kylie Smith, “Hegemony and the Operation of Consensus and
Coercion,” In R. Howson & K. M. Smith (Eds.), Hegemony: Studies in Consensus and
Coercion Ch., 1, January 1, 2008, 1–15, https://ro.uow.edu.au/ era/538/.
20
Muhammad Shafiq, “Chapter 3 Emerging Geo -Political Realities in Asia Pacific Region,”
Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) Journal XIV (2014): 81–110,
http://www.dsdw2016.dsdw.go.th/doc_pr/ndc_2560-2561/PDF/8611st/5.%E0%B8%9A%
E0%B8%97%E0%B8%97%E0%B8%B5%E0%B9%88%203.pdf.
P-JMR-VOL III, I (2021) DOI: 10.53963/pjmr.2021.001.3 135

Development of Gwadar port city, under the BRI flagship Project

CPEC, may change the role of Pakistan Navy and dynamic presence of
the Chinese Navy at the Head of WIO. Due to its strategic location at
the steering point towards the Middle East and Hormuz strait focus
on regional maneuvering is increased. Decrease in Indian influence at
Chahbahar port increase opportunities for Pak-Iran-China (PIC)
confluence. This business cum military maneuvering to secure
regional SLOCs will bring India and Pakistan face to face in the race of
becoming “regional Anchor” (according to US defense policy-2012)21
for the broader IO to “Conjoint Security Head” in WIO.

Looking at the other side of the coin, China-India bilateral ties are
fraught due to historical disputes with a rising threat to Indian
intentions of being NSP in WIO. Friction stems from the 2400-mile
border in India’s Arunachal Pradesh and China’s Tibet and the legacy
of the 1962 Sino-Indian War along the Himalayan border22. To no
surprise, hegemonic thirst may lead to strong retaliation ending into a
full-scale conflict in the militarized WIO depending on trade alliances
and military cooperation scenarios.

Australian investment in “The South Asia Regional Infrastructure

Connectivity” (SARIC) initiative worth more than $25 million is shifting
trend in the strategic maneuvering of IO23. It equates the Chinese
rising trust graph in the IOR states via metastatic signaling with US-
backed cooperation blocs and military alliances. Furthermore, China

21
Department of Defense United States Of America, “Sustaining US Global Leadership:
Priorities for 21st Century Defense.” (Washington: The White House, January 3, 2012),
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/policy/dod/defense_guidance201201.pdf.
22
PK Chakravorty, “Sino-Indian War of 1962,” Indian Historical Review 44, no. 2 (December
2017): 285–312, https://doi.org/10.1177/0376983617726649.
23
Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury, “Australia Announces Regional Connectivity Initiative in S Asia
with India as Pivot,” The Economic Times, January 9, 2019, https://economic
times.indiatimes.com/news/defence/australia-announces-regional-connectivity-initiative-
in-s-asia-with-india-as-pivot/articleshow/67459073.cms?from=mdr.
136 Sehrish Qayuum

released a $3.2 million loan for Kenya24 to develop an infrastructural

connection between the port city and Nairobi. It is a strategic as well
as an investment dynamic to contain Indian IFC’s (connecting through
radar signals) and US-backed economic cum military maneuvering in
the heart of Indian Ocean25. In 2017, Australian white paper stated to
increase cooperation with the IOR coastal states in the sector of WIO
maritime security and the enactment of laws. Australian Minderoo
foundation’s “Ocean flourishing Initiative”26 is a creating sense of
collective environmental protection retaliation- towards prospect
intense nuclearization of Indian ocean which may affect climatic
changes and oceanic health in the wider sense27. Rather than
appearing as a military rival, Australia is trying to manage a healthy
cooperative environment with joint collaborative and infrastructural
investments that may need security measures.

a. Shifting strategic trade routes and control of Chokepoints

Inclining economic strength of Beijing is steering Asia with the

launch of BRI and bolstering relations with the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) possibly for new economic world
order. Asia Pacific Free Trade Agreement (FTA) proposal by ASEAN
members28 created room for the Regional Comprehensive Economic
Partnership (RCEP) in 2012 with the membership of five regional
economic giants i.e. China, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and New

24
Antony Kamakia et al., “Financing for Development and Socio-Ecological Transitions: A
Review of Chinese Investments in Kenya,” Environmental Management and Sustainable
Development 7, no. 2 (March 8, 2018): 34, https://doi.org/10.5296/emsd.v7i2.12561.
25
Andrew S. Erickson, Ladwig C. Walter, and Justin D. Mikolay, “Diego Garcia and the United
States’ Emerging Indian Ocean Strategy,” Asian Security 6, no. 3 (September 30, 2010):
214–37, https://doi.org/10.1080/14799855.2010.507408.
26
“Our Invitation to You from Flourishing Oceans Photo by Reinhard Dirscherl Ullstein Bild via
Getty Images,” accessed November 8, 2020, https://cdn.minderoo.org/content/
uploads/2019/02/06090200/Flourishing-Oceans-Invite_190206-digital-p.pdf.
27
Beenesh Ansari, “Indian Ocean: A Great Game for Strategic and Nuclear Supremacy – SASSI
University,” South Asian Strategic Stability Institute SAASI University, November 25, 2019,
http://sassi.org.pk/indian-ocean-a-great-game-for-strategic-and-nuclear-supremacy/.
28
Chris Devonshire Ellis, “Understanding ASEAN’s Free Trade Agreements,” ASEAN Business
News (ASEAN briefing, February 13, 2014), https://www.aseanbriefing.com/news/
understanding-aseans-free-trade-agreements/.
P-JMR-VOL III, I (2021) DOI: 10.53963/pjmr.2021.001.3 137

Zealand. The categoric rise of half of the global GDP holders reduced
Transpacific Partnership (TPP), (which was later withdrawn by
Washington), further adds an approach for the establishment of the
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) focusing infrastructural
development in Asia. China aims to establish Naval ports across the
Indian Ocean under BRI’s flagship projects which may be an
impending threat to extra-regional powers and US-allies in IOR29.
Region-centered policies to manage and dominate SLOCs in the last
two decades has increased the economic uplift of the Asian countries.
These policies replaced USA with China and increased trade share of
as primary partner. For instance, India-US trade statistics is 1/8th of
the total to Sino-Indian trade volume30, while another comparison
states that Indonesian trade statistics is 12.5% with China and 7%
with the USA31. Even currently, the USA itself is trading with China far
more than its trade-sum with Canada. Washington has changed its
approach towards china after Trump stepped into the office. Policy
shift was observed from “Asia Pivot” to the revised “Indo-Pacific
Quad”32 and “free and open Indo Pacific” (FOIP) Policy to deal with
trade war and revitalization of regional stakeholders in recent times
of COVID-19 health emergency too.

Further analysis of US strategic moves shows that Washington’s

military commitments in the region of Afghanistan and the Middle
East along with modifying Asian polices have become the reason for

29
Jayanna Krupakr, “China’s Naval Base(S) in the Indian Ocean—Signs of a Maritime Grand
Strategy?,” Taylor & Francis Online 14, no. 3 (March 16, 2017), https://www.tand
fonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09700161.2017.1296622?journalCode=rsan20.
30
Wei Tian, “China and India: Trends in Trade over the Last Decade,” THE JOURNAL of CHINA
and GLOBAL ECONOMICS 1, no. 1 (2012): 27–38, https://mjyu.ccer.pku.edu.cn/
docs/26.pdf.
31
Mari Pangestu, “China–US Trade War: An Indonesian Perspective,” China Economic
Journal 12, no. 2 (May 4, 2019): 208–30, https://doi.org/10.1080/17538
963.2019.1611084.
32
Premesha Saha, “From ‘Pivot to Asia’ to Trump’s ARIA: What Drives the US’ Current Asia
Policy?,” ORF (Observational Research Foundation, February 19, 2020),
https://www.orfonline.org/research/from-pivot-to-asia-to-trumps-aria-what-drives-the-
us-current-asia-policy-61556/.
138 Sehrish Qayuum

losing control of IOR chokepoints. Rapid fluctuation in the polices also

impacts the area of preference and operationalization in comparison
to the regional rising giant-China. Shifting of Pacific Command to
Indo-Pacific command at Pentagon in 201833 with hybrid-warfare
tactics depicts the importance of IOR for the USA to retain its
hegemony. Recent US efforts for withdrawal from Afghanistan,
nuclear-deal with Iran, and peace-agreement with the Taliban are
conduits towards winning hegemony race in IOR. As focusing on IO
politics and maneuvering will be easy for US leadership after free
from these distractions. While the US adherence to FOIP with US$300
million aid34 and Revival of QUAD is the impetus for the USA to
ensure China of its unshakeable presence in Asia. Geostrategic and
geo-economics maneuvering of China to entail the Chinese hold on
weak and small regional states35 with higher monetary benefits and
infrastructural support under BRI may not let the USA rise again
(despite new block formation i.e. post Israel acceptance confluence of
the USA, KSA and UAE).

The shifting of Obama’s ‘Asia Pivot” to Trumps’ “ARIA” Policy

offers Washington a chance to cooperate with Southeast Asian states
and allies who are intending to increase their stake in the region 36. It
is going to be a test of flexibility and freeness for Indo-Pacific theories
such as Japan’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy,” Australia’s
“Foreign Policy White Paper,” India’s “Act East Policy”, and Taiwan’s
“New Southbound Policy.” Washington is putting energies to assure

33
Caroline Houck, “Pentagon Rebrands PACOM as ‘Indo-Pacific Command,’” Defense One,
May 30, 2018, https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2018/05/pentagon-rebrands-
pacom-indo-pacific-command/148612/.
34
Reuters Staff, “U.S. Pledges Nearly $300 Million Security Funding for Indo-Pacific Region,”
Reuters, August 4, 2018, sec. APAC, https://www.reuters.com/article/ us-asean-singapore-
usa-security-idUSKBN1KP022.
35
Nilanthi Samaranayake, “China’s Engagement with Smaller South Asian Countries,” United
States Institute of Peace, April 10, 2019, https://www.usip.org/publications/2019/
04/chinas-engagement-smaller-south-asian-countries.
36
Premesha Saha, “From ‘Pivot to Asia’ to Trump’s ARIA: What Drives the US’ Current Asia
Policy?,” ORF (Observational Research Foundation, February 19, 2020),
https://www.orfonline.org/research/from-pivot-to-asia-to-trumps-aria-what-drives-the-
us-current-asia-policy-61556/.
P-JMR-VOL III, I (2021) DOI: 10.53963/pjmr.2021.001.3 139

its regional cohorts to stabilize their duties in promoting regional

strength. As in this scenario, India seems to be a conundrum of
security and economic arena while fighting internal retaliations due
to CAB Bill, Kashmir lockdown since the last eleven months, and
ongoing Ladakh crisis37.

Eyeing IO centered policies shows how the region is making a

beeline for enthralled security conditions where two blocs (strategic
power alliances in IO) may revive cooperation. If not focused on
cooperation options, it may result in planting seeds of other extended
clash. Despite positive Chinese intentions as per state narrative,
realism implications drive the State's tendency to retain economic
expansion with all probable entraps. Beijing is endeavoring to keep
disrupted issues aside and increment the financial commitment with
India38 and Japan through exchange under its model of relationship.
The ASEAN states and other Asian countries are additionally not
prepared to encounter the results of any future power-clash due to
its present financial torments. The eventual fate of Indo Pacific lies
with the fundamental territorial partners and the small states that
how much they are at ease with China's share-based investments
which is in certain states alleged as a debt trap system39.

b. COVID-19 and Oil economies’ economic depression

Ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is radically decreasing worldwide

activity leading to economic recession. It is the biggest oil-devouring
division particularly in the transportation segment. Henceforth, it is
difficult to understand that to what range oil costs will go lower as an

37
Pravin Sawhney, “With India’s Options in Ladakh Crisis Narrowing, the Way Forward Is
High-Level Dialogue,” The Wire, July 6, 2020, https://thewire.in/ security/with-indias-
options-in-the-ladakh-crisis-narrowing-high-level-talks-are-the-way-forward.
38
Saheli Roy Choudhury, “Three Reasons India Can’t Quickly Distance Itself from China
despite the Border Clash,” CNBC, July 6, 2020, https://www.cnbc.com/ 2020/07/07/why-
india-cannot-disengage-from-china-despite-geopolitical-tensions.html.
39
Shahar Hameiri, “Debunking the Myth of China’s ‘Debt-Trap Diplomacy,’”
www.lowyinstitute.org, September 9, 2020, https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-
interpreter/debunking-myth-china-s-debt-trap-diplomacy.
140 Sehrish Qayuum

advantage to buyers. While an increase in oil demand is forecasted

fact as the coronavirus aftermath.

On 5 March 2020, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting

Countries (OPEC) proposed a 1.5 mbd production cut for Q2 2020, of
which 1 mbd would be by OPEC countries and 0.5 mbd from non-
OPEC but aligned producers (most prominently, the Russian
Federation)40. The following day, the Russian Federation rejected the
proposal, and Saudi Arabia also announced unprecedented discounts
of almost 20% in key markets. The result was a more than 30% plunge
in prices to as low as $31.1 (WTI crude) per barrel on 9 March, and
the crisis in the oil industry has continued to worsen. An intensifying
recession due to COVID-19 crisis drove global oil prices even further
down to $11.57 per barrel (WTI crude) on 21 April41.

Lowest oil-shipping rate squeezed trade movements and shifting

of focus point from military maneuvering to saving lives in the COVID
pandemic. Circuitous impact of economic recession on net oil
exporters in post-COVID prism has changed preferences of IO
countries and oil economies too. Foreseeably, oil-economies may
look for new cooperation to balance their loss via strategic reshaping
of alliances in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO) having a deep impact
on the power equation and balancing of the region.

c. Shifting regional political focus from Euro-Atlantic to Asia-Pacific

zone and nuclearization of IO

Hegelian dialect makes it unacceptable for a hegemon to see

declining military might, economic dominance, diplomatic influence,
and reducing respect. Failing hegemon keeps trying for the
compensation of his loss of respect and influence on the rising
hegemon which in turn drags, yet not fully risen hegemon it into a

40
Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, “Economic Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Oil Price
Collapse,” Asia Pathways, May 18, 2020, https://www.asiapathways-
adbi.org/2020/05/economic-impacts-covid-19-pandemic-and-oil-price-collapse/.
41
Ibid.
P-JMR-VOL III, I (2021) DOI: 10.53963/pjmr.2021.001.3 141

premature confrontation42. Shifting of Politico-economic focus from

Euro-Atlantic to Asia-Pacific zone has emerged new military alliances,
strategic maneuvering in the Indian Ocean43. Increased usage of
Nuclear weapons i.e. nuclear submarines, missile stations, and
paralyzing armadas has added armed sight to IO politics.
Recalibration of US policies towards the Asia-pacific and Indian Ocean
zone may yet not balance the race of declining and rising powers44.
For instance, Consider the China-US condition in the challenged seas
of Asia–Pacific. In the preceding years, Beijing has embraced an
extraordinarily increasingly forceful stance opposite regional and
oceanic debates with Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines. While US
interest does not incite undeniable showdown over generally minor
happenings and challenges. US security policies in the IOR is
continuously facing reliability check as Washington cannot challenge
Beijing on each incitement. Yet every agitation that goes
unchallenged improves China's influence over its neighbors and
debilitates America's standing in the region. Chinese deploying navy’s
combat units for anti-piracy patrols 45, M-11 missile technology
transfer46 to Pakistan along with aggressive SCS patrolling. Chinese
calculated moves and technology support to Pakistan for increasing
submarine squad47 has refuted increasing US-India alliance and

42
Richard McKeon, “Dialectic and Political Thought and Action,” Ethics 65, no. 1 (1954): 1–33,
https://www.jstor.org/stable/2378780.
43
Muhammad Shafiq, “Emerging Trends in Geo-Politics of Asia Pacific Region,” Islamabad
Policy Research Institute (IPRI) Journal Journal. XIV. 81-101 (April 2014),
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/289317217_Emerging_Trends_in_Geo-
politics_of_Asia_Pacific_Region.
44
Mercy A. Kuo, “US-China Economic Relations: Impact on the Asia-Pacific Region,”
thediplomat.com, June 7, 2017, https://thediplomat.com/2017/06/us-china-economic-
relations-impact-on-the-asia-pacific-region/.
45
“China’s Piracy Patrols – Maritime Security Review,” Maritime Security Review, January 2,
2019, http://www.marsecreview.com/2019/01/chinas-piracy-patrols/.
46
Monica Chansoria, “Role of China as Pakistan’s Nuclear and Missile Patron,” Indian
Defence Review, November 15, 2010, http://www.indiandefencereview.com/news/role-
of-china-as-pakistans-nuclear-and-missile-patron/3/.
47
H. I. Sutton, “Chinese Navy Submarines Could Become a Reality in Indian Ocean,”
Forbes, June 26, 2020, https://www.forbes.com/sites/hisutton/2020/06/26/chinese-navy-
submarines-could-become-a-reality-in-indian-ocean/?sh=7deb5c0754a6.
142 Sehrish Qayuum

cooperative talks for opening military bases to US navy- for bridging

the gap towards China and exchange of weapon technology including
anti-submarine warfare (ASW). On the other hand, Chinese
submarine patrol to Persian Gulf mentions its resolute presence in IO.

3. Strategic Analysis of Power States Maritime Policies in IO

a. Strategic Analysis of US Maritime Policy in IO: The Indo-pacific

region is facing serious security disputes regarding humanitarian,
governance, and trade matters. US presence in Indian ocean dates
to century but in 1972 Asia-pacific region was given under US
Pacific Command’s ‘area of responsibility’48 preceded increased
interest after the Arab-Israeli War. The USA has focused in three
major areas while developing its Indian Ocean Maritime policy,
firstly, continuing Sino-Indian contest, secondly, Due to rising
Chinese influence in south china sea and at Malacca strait,
chokepoints regulation became a far more immediate concern as
US-Iran tussle is going on near Hormuz Strait, thirdly secure
international maritime trade routes49.

Long-distance from naval bases and continuous efforts to

dominate IO would create further difficulties for US. China’s
attaining anti-access and area denial (A2AD) capabilities will have
deep impact on US maritime policy- addressing possible
battlefields for the USA and Chinese trade routes. US absence in
SCS would open playgrounds as Chinese up the ante by declaring
new administrative areas despite Vietnam and the Philippines’s
criticism50, compels the USA to ensure its presence in Southern
China. While at the same time managing influential presence and

48
“U.S. Indo-Pacific Command > about USINDOPACOM > USPACOM Area of Responsibility,”
Pacom.mil, November 11, 2020, https://www.pacom.mil/About-USINDOPACOM/
USPACOM-Area-of-Responsibility/.
49
Dr. Satoru Nagao, “Review of ‘Defining U.S. Indian Ocean Strategy’ | Intelligence Analysis,”
笹川平和財団| 海洋情報 FROM THE OCEANS, accessed November 9, 2020,
https://www.spf.org/oceans/analysis_en/c1204-1.html.
50
Drake Long, “China Ups Ante in South China Sea with New Place Names, Districts,” Benar
News, April 20, 2020, https://www.benarnews.org/english/ news/philippine/philippines-
china-04202020182553.html.
P-JMR-VOL III, I (2021) DOI: 10.53963/pjmr.2021.001.3 143

defense in depth at Hormoz strait in case of US-Iran full-scale

conflict, is stretching the USA in two dimensions. So, in the case,
increasing defense resources to the US pacific command is the
major focus of pentagon standing along with its largest defense
ally SCS-Japan. On the other side, USA responded very inclusively
by extending its presence in three dimensions i.e. at Australian
HMAS Stirling providing a deep-water port for military
maneuvering, secondly, current US investment for up-gradation
coco’s island runway nearest to Sri Lanka and thirdly, investment
in security installations in bay of Bengal to operate aircraft in the
region in case of any emergency 51.

US-QUAD policy as a counter-alignment strategy of USA in

comparison to BRI’s consortium of commerce cum military
investment around the Indian Ocean may give tough time to
Chinese rise. US covert diplomatic strategies i.e. supporting Indian
leadership for acceding LEMOA and COMCASA with India on one
hand and increasing investments in Japan ports and Australia on
other hand, is a diversified try to ‘one size fits all’ strategy. Moving
close to Chinese terrains, US undercover support to Taiwan’s
independence may create hurdles for the presence even in South
China Sea52. So, pentagon backing the rise of democratic Taiwan as
key official guarantor and sending peace envoys to Taiwan in
November 2019 is an undeniable move to win the US’s peaceful
presence in IOR. Preserving radiant alliance in IOR is major US
focus as currently there is not any hard crisis going on in IO.

Right from 2012, decreasing US presence in IO is continuously

increasing Indian naval grip on IOR along with increasing US-India
alliance after Indian training to Vietnam and Iran’s submarine

51
Phillip Coorey, “US Military Eyes Cocos Islands as a Future Indian Ocean Spy Base,” The
Sydney Morning Herald, March 27, 2012, https://www.smh.com.au/ politics/federal/us-
military-eyes-cocos-islands-as-a-future-indian-ocean-spy-base-20120327-1vwo0.html.
52
“US Steps up Support for Taiwan to Counter Rising China Pressure,” www.aljazeera.com,
September 1, 2020, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/ 2020/9/1/us-steps-up-support-for-
taiwan-to-counter-rising-china-pressure.
144 Sehrish Qayuum

forces and Thailand’s aircraft carrier crews53. So, Indian rise as

emerging naval power of Blue waters is driving US maritime policy
to an effective edge by increasing defense ties, getting US support
in NSG, and the US relying on India as a front-line force against
china in the region. Pentagon’s future move may claw down the
Indian economy and Naval power in IO to get a larger range of
impact countering Chinese influence in the IOR defending the
freedom of navigation at important chokepoints and by offering
collective surveillance system based on US satellites.

b. Strategic Analysis of Chinese Maritime Policy in IO:

The consortium of the “Two-Ocean Navy” strategy and “One Belt
One Road” OBOR initiative is taking momentum to make china
military and economic tycoon of IO. Major Chinese concerns are
the risk of war due to the Malacca dilemma, commercial supply
lines, increasing US presence in Japan, and South Korea. While on
top, threats to freedom of navigation and piracy against Chinese
massive commercial fleets in two oceans may spur a serious
contention54. Contemporary naval hegemon of US in IO has driven
Chinese maritime policy to preferentially modernize People
Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). Right after US withdrawal from
Trans-pacific Partnership regional countries including Australia has
begun to increase ties with China55. Chinese ports in Siri Lanka,
Pakistan, and Djibouti are giving hard economic expansion and
safe commercial supply lines to China. While for further safety and
protection china has a valid reason to launch its military fleets in
the IO field56. OBOR progression to the Middle East is also

53
Jan Joel Andersson, “THE RACE to the BOTTOM: Submarine Proliferation and International
Security,” Naval War College Review 68, no. 1 (2015): 12–29, https://www.jstor.org/
stable/26397814?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents.
54
T. Sun and Alex Payette, “CHINA ’ S TWO OCEAN ST RATEGY : Controlling Waterways and
the New Silk Road B Y Tom ( GUORUI ) SUN,” www.semanticscholar.org, 2017,
https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/CHINA-%E2%80%99-S-TWO-OCEAN-ST-RATEGY-
%3A-Controlling-and-the-Sun-Payette/1840af9a04093bdcda462873436089578a187bbc.
55
Daniel C. K. Chow, Ian Sheldon, and William McGuire, “How the United States Withdrawal
from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Benefits China,” papers.ssrn.com (Rochester, NY,
August 7, 2018), https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm? abstract_id=3228007.
56
Ibid., 56.
P-JMR-VOL III, I (2021) DOI: 10.53963/pjmr.2021.001.3 145

expanding its opportunities for balancing US centralization in IO

along with Sub-marine force.

Chinese private protection units for sea-based trades in

comparison to the hard military is a strategy to keep the Chinese
image soft while in practical Private and public sectors are not far
off in China57. On the other edge, Chinese military presence under
the auspices of the UN-peacekeeping mission and nuclear-driven
submarine fleet for protection of SLOCs is schematic plotting in
IO58. Controlling Hormoz strait by the imminent naval presence at
Gwadar after functionalizing CPEC in full swing and subsuming
Malacca dilemma by the presence at Hambantota port is part of
Chinese maritime strategy to a one-fits-to-all strategy under
OBOR. In the way, PLAN has expanded its zone of operation from
SCS, yellow sea to WIO in the Persian Gulf. PLAN’s Subservience to
the Chinese economic rise is transforming its capabilities of self-
protection of its SLOCs to the Bluewater navy59. US strong
presence in East Asian and west pacific countries is a worry for
Chinese power projection and intimidation which may get even
worse in the case of Taiwan’s reunification. While Chinese efforts
for free trade zone may pave ways for de-escalation in the region
under Maritime Silk Road (MSR) which is currently clawing under-
operationalized QUAD policy.

Currently, deployment of 60 Chinese warships, naval support

port of Doraleh near Bab-el-Mandeb strait, 093A-Chinese
Submarine at Feydhoofinolhu island60 is sure to power show

57
VEERLE NOUWENS, “Who Guards the ‘Maritime Silk Road’?,” War on the Rocks, June 24,
2020, https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/who-guards-the-maritime-silk-road/.
58
Richard Gowan, “China’s Pragmatic Approach to UN Peacekeeping,” Brookings,
September 14, 2020, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/chinas-pragmatic-approach-to-
un-peacekeeping/.
59
Priyanshi Chauhan, “Cooperation against Competition: India and China in the Energy
Sector,” South Asian Voices, July 16, 2019, https://southasianvoices.org/ cooperation-
against-competition-india-china-energy-sector/.
60
“China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities-Background and Issues
for Congress,” accessed July 19, 2020, https://sgp.fas.org/crs/ row/RL33153.pdf.
146 Sehrish Qayuum

beside economic rise in IO. US concerns regarding slipping of

Chinese submarines in wartimes via Lombok and Sunda Straits may
even strangle US presence in SCS despite ongoing verbal clashes
due to territorial claims in east Asian countries61. China is
intensifying its maritime diplomacy as in 2012 formation of
Maritime Leading Group (MLG), centralizing coast guard’s
command under PLA by adding military functions to them and
efforts for unified maritime law to manage domestic seas. But to
no surprise, China is using the traditional path of rising hegemons
by ensuring its considerable presence in IO neither pure military
nor pure economic.

c. Strategic Analysis of Indian Maritime Policy in IO: Analysis of

“Indian Maritime Doctrine” (IMD)-2004 and transforming “Indian
Maritime Security Strategy” IMSS-2007 to IMSS-2015 mentions
major areas of focus viz; primary and secondary i.e. being “Net
Security Provider” rather than regional maritime policeman, Red
Sea-Inlet to IO near strait of Babl-e-Mandab, Gulf of Oman, the
Gulf of Aden and expanding area of operation by recognizing new
chokepoints- the Mozambique Channel and Ombai-Wetar Straits62,
countering Chinese rising influence by establishing US-alliance and
containing conventional rival-Pakistan in all maritime means
particularly after 26/11 incident. Modi’s announcement of SAGAR
vision and shifting from ‘look East’ to ‘Act East’ policy by increasing
ties with East Asian countries is regional strategic maneuvering
under economic progression aegis63. Joining QUAD, QUAD 2.0, US-
Indian cooperation under LEMOA and recent entry to the
Australia-India Mutual Logistics Support Arrangement (AIMLSA)

61
H. I. Sutton, “Chinese Navy Submarines Could Become a Reality in Indian Ocean,” Forbes,
June 26, 2020, https://www.forbes.com/sites/hisutton/2020/06/26/ chinese-navy-
submarines-could-become-a-reality-in-indian-ocean/?sh=7deb5c0754a6.
62
Gurpreet Singh Khurana, “‘Net Security Provider’ Defined: An Analysis of India’s New
Maritime Strategy-2015 | Center for International Maritime Security,” CIMSEC,
December 4, 2015, https://cimsec.org/net-security-provider-defined-analysis-indias-new-
maritime-strategy-2015/.
63
“SAGAR Vision,” Drishti IAS, April 23, 2020, https://www.drishtiias.com/daily-
updates/daily-news-editorials/sagar-vision.
P-JMR-VOL III, I (2021) DOI: 10.53963/pjmr.2021.001.3 147

and the Defence Science and Technology Implementing

Arrangement (DSTIA) on June 5, 202064 in a virtual conference
depicts Indian inclining focus towards military expansion in IO to
contain China. Even rising tensions at SCS and Ladakh zone on
Sino-Indian borders could not affect Indian policy for affirmative
peaceful change.

Being a resurgent maritime state, India has a myriad of interests

in IO ranging from economic security, oceanic resources, SLOCs
security, and hub of maritime security architecture. Despite the
establishment of extra-territorial radar stations and connecting
them with the Information Fusion Center (IFC)65 at Delhi may not
be an enough move to confine Chinese naval presence in IO. As
docking of two nuclear Chinese submarine at Colombo port in
2015 strategically keep an eye on Indian feathers66. Indian power
balancing effort in IOR is failing because Iran struck off India from
Chahbahar after LEMOA67. But rising imbalance can be countered
further with the Indo-Russian agreement for upgrading its Kilo-
class Submarine and leasing of Nuclear attacking submarine to
improve its naval flotilla68. In 2017, India signature and agreement
to buy High-tech Guardian Drones-Predator B for increasing its grip

64
Brad Lendon CNN, “India and Australia Strengthen Military Ties as Tensions Simmer in
South China Sea,” CNN, June 5, 2020, https://edition.cnn.com/ 2020/06/04/asia/india-
australia-military-agreements-intl-hnk/index.html.
65
“Ports and Partnerships: Delhi Invests in Indian Ocean Leadership,” Asia Maritime
Transparency Initiative, December 5, 2019, https://amti.csis.org/ports-and-partnerships-
delhi-invests-in-indian-ocean-leadership/.
66
Vijay Sakhuja, “Chinese Submarines in Sri Lanka Unnerve India: Next Stop Pakistan?,”
Indian Strategic Studies, May 29, 2015, https://www.strategicstudyindia.com/
2015/06/chinese-submarines-in-sri-lanka-unnerve.html?m=1.
67
Saad Rasool, “India’s Chabahar Debacle,” The Nation, July 18, 2020,
https://nation.com.pk/19-Jul-2020/india-s-chabahar-debacle.
68
Manu Pubby, “Upgrading Kilo Class Submarines: L&T Set to Partner Russia for Rs 5,000-
Crore Defence Deal,” The Economic Times, June 14, 2018, https://economictimes.
indiatimes.com/news/defence/upgrading-kilo-class-submarines-lt-set-to-partner-russia-
for-rs-5000-crore-defence-deal/articleshow/50491411.cms?from=mdr.
148 Sehrish Qayuum

on maritime surveillance in IOR69. But these moves are merely

hyperbolic rhetoric and bereft of concrete maritime policy to fulfill
its aim of being “Net Security Provider” of IO. Nerve center of
Indian maritime trade routes in IO may get strangulated in case of
increasing Sino-US Conflict in SCS. While QUAD 2.0 is yet not
enough to contain China at home ground particularly when India
has adjacent borders with China and Chinese naval ports in its
backyard. Resultantly rather than containing, china must be
engaged in trade and joint security projects while India’s
dominant-dependent psyche may cost herself high in the rift of
global giants i.e. US and China, to dominate IOR.

d. Strategic Analysis of Australian Maritime Policy in IO:

Australian maritime policy revolves around mature grand strategy
including denial, engagement, and reform which aims to address
the “air-sea gap” and “continental Imagination”70. Canberra
Government doesn’t aim to contain China or the USA in any way in
fact following “mare incognitum” in the military sense while
cooperation and coordination are considered major moves to
ensure maritime commons’ and resources security71. Asia-Pacific
Economic and military juxtaposition drags Australia to participate
in IO geopolitics. In “Asian century White paper-2012” and
“Defense White Paper-2016” has one thing in common that
Australia started to consider covert military maneuvering to save
its identity neither in offense mode72. Shifting trends of securing
SLOCs, Chokepoints’ domination, naval bases in the heart of IO,

69
Shishir Gupta, “India Eyes Acquisition of Predator-B Drones from US,” Hindustan Times,
July 5, 2020, https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-eyes-acquisition-of-
predator-drones-from-us/story-nVOOMnUWNh7KokbqE9uVYM.html.
70
Abhijit Singh, “An Indian Perspective on Australian Maritime Strategy,”
www.lowyinstitute.org, November 12, 2013, https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-
interpreter/indian-perspective-australian-maritime-strategy.
71
Michael Evans, “Maritime Strategy and Australia’s Future in an Asia-Pacific Century,”
in A Joint Institute and Naval Warfare Professional Development, 2016,
https://www.rusinsw.org.au/Papers/20161103.pdf.
72
Andrew Carr, “No LoNger a MiddLe Power Australia’s Strategy in the 21 St Century Études
de L’Ifri,” 2019, https://www.ifri.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/carr_australia_
middle_power_2019.pdf.
P-JMR-VOL III, I (2021) DOI: 10.53963/pjmr.2021.001.3 149

and MSRs has attracted Australia to re-orient itself from physical

isolation to powerful symbiotic friendships. 38 percent of
Australian exports take place with Beijing73, but at the same time,
defense and military base offer to the US, AIMSLA and DSTIA with
India is making Australia as an important consideration for military
reorientation in IO.

The Australian navy has confused the political economy with

strategic complexities in sea-power theory by merely focusing on
contemporary trade routes and military alliances. AUSINDEX-
military exercises and intending participation in Malabar naval
exercises (involving 30 friendly countries) under the Indian flag is a
sharply increasing potential of Royal Australian Navy (RAN) in the
post-COVID-19 edict74. This appears to be QUAD’s naval alliance in
IO against China.

However, Australian presence in the USA led Blue-Dot Network

may balance China’s BRI by the synergizing blue economy of IORA
states75. Revisionist policies with strategic threat assessment
along with enhancement in a maritime role in IO may strengthen
Australia’s diplomatic position as a maritime facilitator.

e. Strategic Analysis of Pakistan’s Maritime Policy in IO: Analysis

of maritime policy approved in 2002 and later diplomatic
developments depicts Pakistan’s core maritime interests i.e.
conservation for the maritime environment, protection and
promotion of maritime interests, infrastructural development of
coastal zones, and extending naval activeness in WIO76. Beside

73
Matthew Cranston, “Australia’s Export Share to China Hits Record High 38pc,” Australian
Financial Review, September 30, 2019, https://www.afr.com/policy/ economy/australia-s-
export-share-to-china-hits-record-high-38pc-20190930-p52w9y.
74
Ibid., 73.
75
Mercy A. Kuo, “Blue Dot Network: The Belt and Road Alternative,” thediplomat.com,
April 7, 2020, https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/blue-dot-network-the-belt-and-road-
alternative/.
76
“Understanding Pakistan’s Maritime Interests,” Quwa, July 13, 2016, https://quwa.org/
2016/07/13/understanding-pakistans-maritime-interests/.
150 Sehrish Qayuum

two ports working in Karachi and Bin Qassim has to bear all the
economic and military maneuvering load of the state. Moreover,
these two ports were prone to any attack in conflict or war times
i.e. operation trident in 1971. For the purpose, Pakistan had to find
coastal strategic depth in its territory. After the launch of the BRI
flagship project-CPEC in Pakistani terrains, Gwadar appeared as
“région la plus sûre” for developing the largest deep seaport and
military base along. A journey from ‘sea-blindness’ to ‘sea-
awareness’ ended with the launch of the “Maritime Doctrine of
Pakistan in 2018 under the banner of MARSEW held at Pakistan
Navy War College (PNWC)77. “Preserving freedom of Seas” slogan
highlights the importance of sea tied economic and maritime
security.

In the course of the last twenty years, the Pakistan Navy has
developed an edge over the superior Indian Navy by adopting
offensive sea denial strategy by increasing primacy of submarines
and highly equipped-missile based maritime aircraft 78. Pakistan
adopting No-First-Use policy79 in conflict raises its worth as a
mature sea guardian despite accurate target maneuvering with the
maximum probability of success i.e. locating worth billion Indian
submarines and expatriating from its sea borders. Testing of
Babur-3, Ra’ad-II, French-built Exocets, and Hatf-VIII is challenging
Indian naval sea-based deterrence and balance of power at seas80.
Looking into a larger frame, LEMOA offered Indian naval bases to
the US navy paving way for Chinese trade cum military bases at
Hambantota and prospectively at Gwadar81. Indian Deterrent

77
Cdr (Retd) Azam Khan, “Pakistan Launches First Formal Maritime Doctrine,” Global Village
Space, February 21, 2019, https://www.globalvillagespace.com/ pakistan-launches-first-
formal-maritime-doctrine/.
78
Vijay Sakhuja (2002) Pakistan's Naval strategy: Past and future, Strategic Analysis,
26:4, 493-507, DOI: 10.1080/09700160208450064
79
Ibid.
80
Khatoon, N. (2020, March 24). The Maiden Test of Pakistan’s Ra’ad II Cruise Missile: An
Overview. Retrieved from http://capsindia.org/files/documents/ 882329cf-997a-48ca-
a86f-c9a3db5f74e0.pdf
81
M. K. Bhadrakumar, “US-India Military Alliance Comes into View,” Asia Times, October 26,
2020, https://asiatimes.com/2020/10/us-india-military-alliance-comes-into-view/.
P-JMR-VOL III, I (2021) DOI: 10.53963/pjmr.2021.001.3 151

patrol by INS Arihant further evolved strategic maneuvering at

seas and responded by Pakistan with Regional Maritime Security
Patrol (RMSP)82. Rather than following the bottom line of security-
survival83 shifted its focus to region centric-model of maritime
security. Pakistan is not prospecting to balance the presence of
Indian and other navies at IO but ensuring its safe and articulated
presence around the WIO. Shifting of security trends post 9/11 to
post COVID-19 demands a multilateral approach to tackle
maritime complexity i.e. securing SLOCs, countering proactive
doctrines, oceanic nuclearization. Emergence of new Anti-Iran
Block and Indian expulsion from Chahbahar after LEMOA84 creates
strategic opportunities and responsibilities for Pakistan.

4. Potential Challenges for Pakistan

Global power politics has complexed economic development and

military presence opportunities for Pakistan and China in the Indian
Ocean. Indo-pacific is recognized as an integrated entity by Quad
group but Pakistan and China keep Pacific and IO matters separate.
Following categoric discussion explains:

a. Security Challenges: Pakistan has strategic interests that

emanate from coastline to Exclusive economic zone. Location of
two major ports i.e. Karachi and Bin Qasim ports are near eastern
borders which lessens their strategic importance in case of war
and crisis. Security of SLOCs, operationalization of Gwadar port,
radicalization in the Middle East and South Asia may pose threats
to maritime developments. Weapon, drugs and human trafficking
through Pakistani waters may question mark national interests and
security. Indian intentions to subvert CPEC and Gwadar port by

82
Sohail Azmie, “Regional Maritime Security Patrols (RMSP) | Pakistan Today,” Pakistan
Today, June 3, 2019, https://archive.pakistantoday.com.pk/ 2019/06/03/regional-
maritime-security-patrols-rmsp/.
83
Barry Buzan,. 2003. Regions and Powers.
84
Saad Rasool, “India’s Chabahar Debacle,” The Nation, July 18, 2020,
https://nation.com.pk/19-Jul-2020/india-s-chabahar-debacle.
152 Sehrish Qayuum

indirect militancy and backing separatist Baluch is rising concern

for Pakistan. Increasing trilateral partnerships-Pak-Iran-China (PIC)
may assist in active WIO presence.

b. Blue Economy Challenges: Securing sea resources and the

fifth water province of Pakistan is becoming essential due to
increased dependency on sea-based trade. Extension of EEZ has
opened opportunities for Pakistan but at the same time marine
pollution, oil spilling, lacking a supply of good quality fish along
with sharp climatic changes are present-day challenges.

c. Tourism Development: Unattended maritime zones in Pakistan

needs to be developed under proper planning to utilize it to
maximum potential. Security and elevated aids are a major
challenge towards coastal and marine tourism expansion in
Pakistan.

d. Strategic Alliances: Pakistan could not afford to stand against

strategic military maritime alliances in IO despite increasing
cooperation from the Chinese government in infrastructural
projects. Developing trade, surveillance, and security alliance with
QUAD and IOR countries may pose a high cost to maintain its
presence in WIO.

e. Task Force Participation: Participation in CTF-150, CTF-151,

and later self-called RMSP has improved Pakistan’s international
maritime image. Being the part of UN-based peacekeeping, anti-
piracy operations, refugee rehabilitation in WIO zones may
increase the role of Pakistan as a front-line allied security state.

f. Debt Trap Diplomacy: CPEC served as a regional game-changer

in a larger perspective along with an increased level of challenges
for Pakistan. Increased security parameters, the task force for
protecting such a huge project, converging Baluch dissenter’s
interest to make the project successful. Debt trap diplomacy under
shadow of CPEC is an undeniable challenge for Pakistan to secure
its independent future beside governed colony.
P-JMR-VOL III, I (2021) DOI: 10.53963/pjmr.2021.001.3 153

5. Estimated Opportunities for Pakistan

Increasing influence range and maritime awareness has extended

opportunities for Pakistan in a larger frame.

a. Development of perennial coastal resorts: Pakistan has a 1000

km long coastline with extensively mesmerizing natural sights and
beaches. Under a project of coastal development-perennial resorts
i.e. one resort within every 100 km will increase tourism,
employment, and soft-image.

b. Agreements on International Ship and Port facility: Signing of

agreements for International ships, crew employment and
availability port facility in the friendly countries and trade alliances
may serve purpose of secure trading and peaceful international
presence for Pakistan.

c. Artificial Island development: Large investments such as

CPEC and Gwadar port development may design the bright
economic future of Pakistan. Development of artificial islands in
contagious and EEZ may increase marine tourism, security
extension opportunities, and within-sea radar and military
stations.

d. Provision of shortest trade routes for China, CARs, and

Afghanistan: Pakistan provides shortest trade routes to landlock
states i.e. Afghanistan, CARs, and western Chinese provinces. It
may be utilized with flexible trade policies to attract countries to
depend on Pakistan for sea-based trade increasing revenue
generation opportunities. CPEC has converged interests of states
in Pakistan with linkage to Europe via highways and railroads.

e. Development of IFCs: Assisted information fusion centers with

allied maritime countries and military bases around the country
may help to manage information and response. Furthermore, a
parallel IFC for human capital may be created to get skilled minds
and force for interpreting better future dreams to reality.
154 Sehrish Qayuum

f. Security development and assistance in western IO:

Development of TF-88 for securing Gwadar port and advanced
security trends under regional security complex may raise
Pakistan’s status for security provision. Pakistan may launch new
taskforces for regional security projects promoting skilled
employment and revenue generation. Inclusion of Chinese JH-7, J-
20, Jain-10 and Pakistani JF-17 into maritime air combat squad
may effectively reduce Indian threats.

6. Proposed Maritime Security Strategy of Pakistan (MSSP)

Maritime Doctrine of Pakistan (MDP)-2018 has given vast insight

over the navy’s role in nuclearized IO, the perspective of national
security relationship with Pakistan Navy, and its war fighting
philosophy. Comprehensive and strategic analysis of the IO
environment and policy analysis of active states extracts important
dimensions to be followed for developing MSSP.

i. Pakistan must issue a duly revised National Maritime Policy

(NMP) and National Maritime Strategy (NMS) commensurate with
contemporary needs focusing to complete and mature its sea-
based deterrence potential.

ii. US-India collaboration in IO should be balanced by increasing

collaboration with China under CPEC to advance cause of blue
economy along with investment in security of Gwadar port and
maritime related projects of CPEC

iii. China is biggest investor in Pakistan under CPEC so expansion of

scope and periodicity of PN-PLAN joint exercises along with regular
port visits by PN/PLAN to each other ports may increase mutual
reliance.

iv. Indo-pacific merging seems implausible for Pakistan, so it may

increase the security of its SLOCs, international container ports,
and comprehensive sea protocol for law enforcement agencies
which ensure national economic interests and geostrategic
converging in the North Arabian Sea.
P-JMR-VOL III, I (2021) DOI: 10.53963/pjmr.2021.001.3 155

v. Discarding neighbour’s idea of “Net security Provider”, Pakistan

may increase its cooperation under the banner of RMSP by further
developing a conjoint patrol force serving the needs of all regional
stakeholders.

vi. Extending submarine squad with SSBNs and SSGNs with assured
second-strike capability may raise PN status in the IO navies.

vii. Increased budget allocation for indigenous maritime excellence

centers for research and policy development will further enhance
the importance of tri-service force.

viii. Development and integration of advanced technologies i.e.

internet protocol surveillance system, CO2 and metal detectors, x-
ray and infra-red detectors for non-intrusive check along with
underwater and aerial security systems.

xi. “Science and technology” transfer, “security surveillance” and

technical information sharing centers should be developed for
cohesiveness and more shrewd naval moves in IO under AMAN
exercise banner.

x. Reorienting focus of foreign policy and military security to

oceans for marine production and improving oceanic health which
may serve the purpose of MDGs and the Growth of Pakistan’s Blue
Economy.

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