Artificial Intelligence in Project

Management

GULF AGENCY COMPANY

March 27, 2017

Authored by: Neal Gabriel
Contents
OVERVIEW.........................................................................................................................................2
WHAT IS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE?........................................................................................................2
LIVE EXAMPLES...................................................................................................................................3
MOBILE ROUTE PREDICTION..............................................................................................................3
SELF-DRIVING CARS.........................................................................................................................3
LOGISTICS INDUSTRY (DHL)..............................................................................................................3
THE LOGISTICS TREND RADAR (DHL – SEPT 2016)...............................................................................4
MONTE CARLO SIMULATION..............................................................................................................5
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE -THE SCIENCE BEHIND THE MAGIC........................................................................5
KNOWLEDGE BASED EXPERT SYSTEM (KBES).......................................................................................5
ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK (ANN)................................................................................................5
GENETIC ALGORITHMS (GA).............................................................................................................6
FUZZY LOGIC..................................................................................................................................7
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT.................................................................................8
AI IN ENGINEERING DESIGN..............................................................................................................8
AI IN PROJECT PLANNING.................................................................................................................8
AI IN COST ESTIMATION...................................................................................................................8
AI IN RISK MANAGEMENT.................................................................................................................8
AI IN PERFORMANCE MANAGEMENT..................................................................................................8
DATA, INFORMATION, KNOWLEDGE AND WISDOM....................................................................................9
WHERE DO WE GET DATA?................................................................................................................9

Artificial Intelligence in Project Management | 27-Mar-17

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 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN PROJECT
MANAGEMENT
Neal Gabriel
Artificial Intelligence in Project Management | 27-Mar-17

Overview
Artificial Intelligence is a Science that uses technology to create Magic.

What is Artificial Intelligence?

The broad definition of Artificial Intelligence (AI) covers everything done by a computer or machine that
resembles human thought. It includes robotics, speech synthesis, and pattern recognition as well as
decision trees. Expert Systems is a branch of AI that makes use of a “knowledge base” from which
customized advisories for a specified set of circumstances can be extracted by means of a series of

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questions that characterize the user and his situation. This is the aspect of AI that has particular
relevance for project management.

Live Examples
Mobile Route Prediction
The below example is of a Samsung Galaxy Mobile – Quick Info Page, wherein you can find Time to work
and Time to home. This is a live example of AI. The mobile phone collects your travel data on a daily
basis. This is analyzed by the AI based on the location and time and creates the estimated time to
specific locations (home / office in the below sample).

Self-Driving Cars
Artificial Intelligence (AI) plays an integral role in the progression of self-driving vehicles on public roads.

Artificial Intelligence in Project Management | 27-Mar-17

Just like a human, self-driving cars need to have sensors to understand the world around them and a
brain that collects, processes and chooses specific actions based on information gathered. The same
goes for self-driving cars, and each autonomous vehicle is outfitted with advanced tools to gather
information, including long-range radar, LIDAR, cameras, short/medium-range radar, and ultrasound.
Each of these technologies is used in different capacities, and each collects different information.
However, this information is useless unless it is processed, and some form of action is taken based on
the gathered information. This is where Artificial Intelligence comes into play and can be compared to
the human brain, and the actual goal of Artificial Intelligence is for a self-driving car to conduct in-depth
learning.

 Artificial Intelligence has many applications for these vehicles, among the more
immediate and obvious functions:
 Directing the car to a gas station or recharge station when it is running low on fuel.
 Adjust the trip’s directions based on known traffic conditions to find the quickest route.
 Incorporate speech recognition for advanced communication with passengers.

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  Eye tracking for improved driver monitoring.
 Natural language interfaces and virtual assistance technologies.

Logistics Industry (DHL)

Global logistics provider DHL believes worldwide supply chains are beginning to undergo a fundamental
transformation as more “artificial intelligence” is deployed to handle both the domestic and
international movement of goods

According to research conducted in support of its recent 2016 Logistics Trend Radar, DHL thinks the
impact of data-driven and autonomous supply chains provides an opportunity for “previously
unimaginable levels of optimization” in manufacturing, logistics, warehousing and last mile delivery that
could become a reality in less than half a decade, despite high set-up costs deterring early adoption
within the logistics industry.

The Logistics Trend Radar (DHL – Sept 2016)

The Logistics Trend Radar is a dynamic living tool designed to help organizations derive new strategies
and develop more powerful projects and innovations. The tool also serves as the foundation for further
exploration into each of the trends.
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The details are available in the following link for reference.

http://www.dhl.com/en/about_us/logistics_insights/dhl_trend_research.html#.WNo6fW-GO71

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They also draw upon the expertise of their customers, partners and industry experts to jointly develop
trend reports and drive pilots in topics such as big data, low cost sensor technology and augmented
reality. See more details in the below link.

http://www.dhl.com/en/about_us/innovation.html

Monte Carlo Simulation

Monte Carlo simulation is a computerized mathematical technique that allows people to account for risk
in quantitative analysis and decision making. The technique is used by professionals in such widely
disparate fields as finance, project management, energy, manufacturing, engineering, research and
development, insurance, oil & gas, transportation, and the environment for finding the uncertainties.

Monte Carlo simulation furnishes the decision-maker with a range of possible outcomes and the
probabilities they will occur for any choice of action. It shows the extreme possibilities—the outcomes of
going for broke and for the most conservative decision—along with all possible consequences for
middle-of-the-road decisions.

The technique was first used by scientists working on the atom bomb; it was named for Monte Carlo,
the Monaco resort town renowned for its casinos. Since its introduction in World War II, Monte Carlo
simulation has been used to model a variety of physical and conceptual systems.

Artificial Intelligence -The Science behind the Magic

 Algorithms that tell computers and other machines how to think and act intelligently
 Many tools and techniques including:
o Knowledge Based Expert System
o Artificial Neural Network
o Genetic Algorithm
o Fuzzy Logic

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Knowledge Based Expert System (KBES)
 Consist of a Knowledge Base and Inference Engine
 The knowledge base is created by collecting the facts and opinions from Subject Matter Experts
 The Inference Engine utilizes IF-THEN statements to provide expertise

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 Artificial Neural Network (ANN)
 A machine learning approach that models the human brain and consists of a number of artificial
neurons linked by weighted connections
 ANNs demonstrate the ability to learn, recall, and generalize from training patterns or data
(numeric, non-numeric or both).
Artificial Intelligence in Project Management | 27-Mar-17

Genetic Algorithms (GA)

 Iterative search methods that mimic the natural biological evolution process and/or the social
behavior of species.
 GAs utilize the natural evolution processes of selection, mutation and cross-over to arrive at
near-optimum solutions to large-scale optimization problems, for which traditional
mathematical search techniques may fail.

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Fuzzy Logic
 Fuzzy logic is an approach to computing based on "degrees of truth" rather than the usual "true
or false" (1 or 0) Boolean logic on which the modern computer is based
 A form of many-valued logic in which the truth values of variables may be any real number
between 0 and 1

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Artificial Intelligence in Project Management
Artificial Intelligence can be and has been used in several applications in Project Management enabling
better project performance. AI can make the life of project managers less (or maybe more) miserable.
Here are some of the areas where AI can be used.

AI in Engineering Design
 Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to select the most suitable structural system for High Rise
Buildings subjected to wind and seismic loads
 Genetic Algorithms (GA) to optimize the LCC of Buildings in hot climates using different
combinations of location, orientation and construction materials

AI in Project Planning
 Knowledge Based Expert System (KBES) to provide estimates of the duration and resource
requirements for project activities based on expert knowledge
 ANN to automate the sequencing of project activities based on functional requirements.
 GA to optimize the schedule of construction project activities in order to minimize the total cost
with resource constraints
 Fuzzy Logic to determine project priorities in the Portfolio Management Process

AI in Cost Estimation
 ANN to estimate the suitable mark-up to increase the possibility of winning tenders
 ANN to predict the possible cost over-runs based on the selected contractor, the competence of
the project manager, the project size and the type of contract used
 Fuzzy Logic to optimize the cost-time trade-offs in construction projects

AI in Risk Management
 ANN to estimate the probability of occurrence for project risks allowing a more accurate
quantitative approach to risk analysis.

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 ANN combined with Monte Carlo Simulation to mimic the human procedure of risk evaluation
and adaptation
 Fuzzy Logic to assess risks in Construction projects to model probability distributions

AI in Performance Management
 ANN to predict the performance of future projects based on the project parameters such as the
Project Manager’s Competence, the Contractor’s ability and the contracting method used.
 KBES to assess claims and provide expert decisions based on the claim conditions
 Fuzzy Logic to improve Project Management Efficiency in Construction Projects

Data, Information, Knowledge and Wisdom

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 Knowledge Discovery in Data (KDD) used to extract useful knowledge from large sets of resources data
to improve resource management practices. Data Mining used to improve Project Cost Estimation and
Scheduling for Software Projects

Where do we get data?

The collection of data is anayzed based on the type of AI project that you are working with. There can be
many sources. Some of them are:

 Machine Data
o This data is mainly from Devices, Sensors (Hardware in general). This is a tabular form of
data with details.
 Organizations Data
o Banks, Financial Instituituion, HR etc.
 People Data
o The data can be from Social Networking, News Sites etc. This is unstructured data and
should be carefully ananlyzed.
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The above information can be used in the below example to create AI for mobile route prediction.

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