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    Predicting The Effectiveness of Tejo International Nature Park in Protecting Vegetation Under Climate Change

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    Luís Quinta-Nova
    In order to study the effectiveness of Tejo 18 International Nature Park, located in the center eastern part of Portugal, Maxent software was used to model the current distribution of three shrub species - Pistacia terebinthus L., Juniperus oxycedrus L. and Rhamnus lycioides L. - indicators of a typical Mediterranean vegetation with a regional distribution restricted to the Tejo International Natural Park, and project its future distribution considering different General Circulation Models.

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    Predicting The Effectiveness of Tejo International Nature Park in Protecting Vegetation Under Climate Change

    Uploaded by

    Luís Quinta-Nova
    34 views13 pages
    In order to study the effectiveness of Tejo 18 International Nature Park, located in the center eastern part of Portugal, Maxent software was used to model the current distribution of three shrub species - Pistacia terebinthus L., Juniperus oxycedrus L. and Rhamnus lycioides L. - indicators of a typical Mediterranean vegetation with a regional distribution restricted to the Tejo International Natural Park, and project its future distribution considering different General Circulation Models.

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    Predicting the effectiveness of Tejo International Nature Park in protecting vegetation under climate change

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    In order to study the effectiveness of Tejo 18 International Nature Park, located in the center eastern part of Portugal, Maxent software was used to model the current distribution of three shrub species - Pistacia terebinthus L., Juniperus oxycedrus L. and Rhamnus lycioides L. - indicators of a typical Mediterranean vegetation with a regional distribution restricted to the Tejo International Natural Park, and project its future distribution considering different General Circulation Models.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    34 views13 pages

    Predicting The Effectiveness of Tejo International Nature Park in Protecting Vegetation Under Climate Change

    Uploaded by

    Luís Quinta-Nova
    In order to study the effectiveness of Tejo 18 International Nature Park, located in the center eastern part of Portugal, Maxent software was used to model the current distribution of three shrub species - Pistacia terebinthus L., Juniperus oxycedrus L. and Rhamnus lycioides L. - indicators of a typical Mediterranean vegetation with a regional distribution restricted to the Tejo International Natural Park, and project its future distribution considering different General Circulation Models.

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    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 13

    Paper number:

    882

    Predicting the effectiveness of Tejo International Nature


    Park in protecting vegetation under climate change

    L. QUINTA-NOVA (1), S. RIBEIRO (2)

    1. GEOBIOTEC, Polytechnic Institute of Castelo Branco, Portugal


    2. LEAF, University of Lisbon, Portugal

    Sousse, Tunisia | 01-04 November 2022


    Paper Nr 1

    1. Background 882

    • Habitat and biodiversity loss are global concerns related to climate change

    • Many studies have reported the poleward shift of species distribution as a biological sign
    of global warming

    • Restricted-range species are particularly vulnerable to the effects of environmental change

    • Redistribution of life on Earth affects the effectiveness of protected areas.

    • For the other hand species that have a restricted presence could expand their distribution
    range resulting from climate change

    Sousse, Tunisia | 01-04 November 2022


    Paper Nr 2

    2. Study objectives 882

    • To identify the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of the priority habitat
    in Europe, 5210 - Arborescent matorral with Juniperus spp., included in the 92/43/CEE
    Directive. This habitat have a very limited distribution in mainland Portugal.
    • To study the influence of climate change on the potential geographic distribution of that
    priority habitat and on the species that make up that habitat.
    • For that purpose, 3 plant species with a regional distribution restricted to the Tejo
    International Natural Park were selected - Juniperus oxycedrus L., the dominant species of
    the priority habitat 5210 “Arborescent matorral with Juniperus spp.” (92/43/CEE Directive);
    and other two species indicators of the same habitat and habitat 5330 “Thermo-
    Mediterranean and pre-steppe scrub”: Pistacia terebinthus L. and Rhamnus lycioides L.

    Prickly cedar Mediterranean buckthorn Mastic tree


    (Juniperus oxycedrus L.) (Rhamnus lycioides L.) (Pistacia lentiscusL.)

    Sousse, Tunisia | 01-04 November 2022


    Paper Nr 3
    3. Material and Methods 882

    Study Area
    • Tejo International Nature Park (PNTI) and the surrounding area belonging to the Tagus
    International Transboundary Biosphere Reserve (central-eastern part of Portugal)
    • Extent: 1,692 sq.km
    • Low altitude but with steep relief as a result of the embedding of the Tagus and its
    tributaries on the edge of the peneplain
    • Most of the vegetation is made up of sclerophyllous formations of holm oak and cork
    oak, as well as abundant patches of scrub, which alternate with cultivated areas and
    pastures

    Sousse, Tunisia | 01-04 November 2022


    Paper Nr 4
    4. Material and Methods 882

    Data
    • 295 floristic relevés were performed based on the phytosociological method Braun-
    Blanquet
    • Vegetation was sampled in a stratified random manner to obtain broadly
    representative data
    • The sample areas were defined within these patterns randomly in 100 m2 quadrats
    • Different topographical, climatic, and soil data were selected to model the species’
    habitat
    • To model the species distribution in future scenarios, we have considered two
    representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, fitted
    for 2080, which is obtained from the WorldClim database
    Analysis
    • The species’ ecological niche model (ENM) was computed employing the software
    Maxent v3.4.1

    Sousse, Tunisia | 01-04 November 2022


    Paper Nr 5
    5. Results 882

    Present Distribution
    Present distribution of species: a) Juniperus oxycedrus; b) Pistacia terebinthus;
    c) Rhamnus lycioides

    Sousse, Tunisia | 01-04 November 2022


    Paper Nr 6
    5. Results 882

    Data for Habitat modeling


    Precipitation of
    • Climatic Data Mean Temperature Annual Precipitation driest quarter

    2010-2018

    2080 - RCP 4.5

    2080 - RCP 8.5

    • Topographical and soil data


    Slope Soil pH Soil Organic Matter Soil Texture

    Sousse, Tunisia | 01-04 November 2022


    Paper Nr 7
    5. Results 882

    Future Potencial Distribution


    Juniperus oxycedrus
    RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

    Sousse, Tunisia | 01-04 November 2022


    Paper Nr 8
    5. Results 882

    Future Potential Distribution


    Pistacia terebinthus
    RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

    Sousse, Tunisia | 01-04 November 2022


    Paper Nr 9
    5. Results 882

    Future Potential Distribution


    Rhamnus lycioides
    RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

    Sousse, Tunisia | 01-04 November 2022


    Paper Nr 10
    6. Discussion 882

    Future Scenarios
    • For J. oxycedrus, the increase in the potential area of occurrence will be the same in
    both scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5).
    • For P. terebinthus and R. lycioides, the trend is also the increase in the species’ range,
    with a slightly higher increase in the RCP 4.5 scenario.
    • The variables most impacting on the species distribution were the mean precipitation
    of the driest quarter, annual precipitation, mean annual temperature, and slope
    • The results suggested some range expansion in the future for all three species for the
    studied scenarios

    Sousse, Tunisia | 01-04 November 2022


    Paper Nr 11
    7. Conclusions 882

    • This work aimed to study the influence of climate change on the potential geographic
    distribution of those species as indicators of typical Mediterranean vegetation
    • Results show an increase in the potential area of occurrence of the plant species in the
    next future
    • The studied species and the vegetation where they occur will probably remain confined
    to center-eastern Portugal in the future, where they will continue to face relevant
    threats like human activity, reinforcing the need for its conservation
    • The increase in potential area for Juniperus oxycedrus is relevant to promote the
    conservation of the habitat 5210 - Arborescent matorral with Juniperus spp., a priority
    for conservation at a European level. Also, maquis conservation, with P. terebinthus and
    R. lycioides as indicator species, is important at a local and regional level under the
    habitat 5330 of 92/43/CEE Directive.
    • Our study helps to better understand the implications of climate change in the
    conservation and management of plant species and habitats in the Tagus International
    Transboundary Biosphere Reserve

    Sousse, Tunisia | 01-04 November 2022


    Paper Nr
    882

    Thank you!
    Luís Quinta-Nova
    [email protected]

    Sponsors: This work is supported with Portuguese national funds by FCT - Foundation for
    Science and Technology, I.P., within the GEOBIOTEC - Project UIDB/04035/2020.

    Sousse, Tunisia | 01-04 November 2022

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