The Business Cycle

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The business cycle

What is a business cycle?

 " A business cycle refers to periods of expansion and contraction. A peak is the high
point following a period of economic expansion. A trough is the low point following a
period of economic decline.
 The recurring and fluctuating levels of economic activity that an economy experiences
over a long period of time.
According to Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell..
• Business cycles are a type of fluctuation found in the aggregate economic activity of nations
that organize their work mainly in business enterprises.
A cycle consists of:

 Expansions.
 General recessions.
 Contractions
And revivals which merge into the expansion phase of the next cycle.
According to Joseph Business
Cycle has 4 steps.....
• Expansion: Increase in production and prices, low interests rates.
• Crisis: Stock exchanges crash and multiple bankruptcies of firms occur.
• Recession: Drops in prices and in output high interests rates.
• Recovery/Revival: Stocks recover because of the fall in prices and incomes.

Boom
• The business outlook is extremely optimistic.
• The important features of prosperity are:
• a high level of output ,trade, employment and income,
• a high level of effective demand and high marginal efficiency of capital,
• a large expansion of bank credit, and
• a rising trend in prices, profits and interest rates.
Peak

 A peak is the highest point of a business cycle and is followed by a contraction and
eventual trough. Peaks are called after the fact once economic indicators have
confirmed that contraction has set in and isn't simply noise.
Characterized by

 Slackening in expansion rate


 Highest level of prosperity
 Downward slide in economic activities
 The phase of recession begins
Recession
• During recessions, many macro economic indicators vary in a similar way.
• Production, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), employment, investment
spending, capacity utilisation, household incomes, business profits, and inflation all fall
• while bankruptcies and the unemployment rate rise.

 Downward slide in growth rate becomes rapid and steady


 Output, employment, prices etc. register a rapid decline
 When the growth rate goes below the steady growth rate depression sets in
Depression
• The phase of depression economic activity is at its low. Wages, cost, price are very low.
• There is massive unemployment leading to a fall in the aggregate income of the people.
• This brings down the purchasing power of the community.
• General demand falls faster than production.
• The piled-up stock are sold at very high rates of discount leading to heavy loss to the
firms.
Depression begins when

 Growth is less than zero


 Total output, employment, prices, b ank advances etc. Decline during subsequent period
 Depression lasts as long as growth rate stays below the stagnated growth rate
Through

 Phase during which the downward trend in the economy slows down and eventually
stops
 Economic activities once again register an upward movement
 Period of severe strain on the economy
 Economy registers a continuous and rapid upward trend in output, employment, etc.
 It enters the phase of recovery
Recovery
• The rising price of an asset
• Increased economic activity during a business cycle, resulting in growth in the gross domestic
product.
• Collection of all or a portion of a debt previously considered uncollectible.
• Valuable materials remaining after processing.
• Proceeds from the sale of an asset that represent depreciation that has already been taken.
Expansion
Increase in;

 Output
 Employment
 Investment
 Aggregate demand
 Bank credits
 Wholesale & Retail prices
 Per capita output
 Standard of living
Recovery and expansion

 In the recovery phase the growth rate may still remain below the steady growth rate.
 When it exceeds this rate, the economy enters the phase of expansion And prosperity

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