Chapter 4 - Probability:

Rare Event Rule for Inferential Statistics: If under a given assumption, the probability of a
particular observed event is extremely small, we conclude that the assumption is probably
not correct.

Vocabulary -

1. Event: An event is any collection of results or outcomes of a procedure.

2. Simple Event: A single outcome (A simple event is an outcome or an event that
cannot be further broken down into simpler components.)
3. Sample Space: The sample space for a procedure consists of all possible simple
events. That is, the sample space consists of all outcomes that cannot be broken
down any further.

Eg:

Procedure Event Sample space

Flipping a coin Head Head/Tail

Flip one time {H, T}

Procedure Event Sample space

Flipping a coin 1 Head 2 Tails {H H H / H H T / H T T / *H

Flip a coin 3 times T H / T T T / *T T H / *T H T
/ T H H}

* = 3 Ways we can achieve

the event.

All single outcomes are

separately called a simple
event. If we put everything
in flower brackets it's called
sample space.

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 Procedure Event Sample space

Flipping a coin 1 Tail 2 Heads {**H H H / *H H T / H T T /

Flip a coin 3 times 3 Heads *H T H / ++T T T / T T H / T
3 Tails H T / *T H H}

* = First event can be

achieved 3 times

** = Second event can be

achieved 1 time

++ = Third event can be

achieved one time.

All single outcomes are

separately called a simple
event. If we put everything
in flower brackets it's called
sample space.

Probability - The likelihood of an event occurring.

Notation for Probabilities:

● P denotes a probability.
● A, B, and C denote specific events.
● P(A) denotes the probability of event A occurring.

3 Types of Probability:

1. Observed Probability(Relative Frequency Approximation of Probability) -

Probability that is estimated based on observation.

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝐴 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑑

𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑐𝑒𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑤𝑎𝑠 𝑟𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑

** What did Happen

2. Classical Probability - Probability based on the chance of an event occurring. Each

simple event must have an equal chance of occurring.

𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒𝑠 𝐴 𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑙𝑑 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟

𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑖𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠

** What should happen.

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 3. Subjective Probability - Educated Guess

Eg:

1. The probability of selecting a Heart from a standard deck of cards.

P(Heart) = 13/52 = 25%

Classical Probability - Should Happen

2. Flip a coin 100 times, you get 64 tails.

P(T) = 64/100 = 64%

Observed Probability - What did Happen

3. Peyton completed 385 out of his first 528 passes. Find the probability that Peyton
will complete a pass.

P(Complete a pass) = 385/528 = 72.91%

Observed Probability - What did Happen

4. From a deck of cards find the probability of randomly selecting A2

P(2) = 4/52 = 7.69%

Classical Probability - Should Happen

5. Cloning people:

Poll: 91 people said cloning is good, 901 people said cloning is bad, and 20 people
had no opinions. Find the probability of Randomly selecting a person who thinks
cloning is a good idea.

P(Cloning Good) = 91/1012 = 8.99%

Observed Probability - What did Happen

6. Find the probability of A bird will poop on your car today.

Subjective Probability - Educative Guess

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 7. Find the probability that if a couple has 3 kids two will be boys. (Assuming equal
chance of a Boy or a Girl)

Procedure - Having 3 Children

Event - 2 Boys, 1 Girl
Simple Events - { BBB / *BBG / *BGB / BGG / GGG / GGB / GBG / *GBB }
Sample Space - All the events.

P(2B, 1G) = 3/8 = 37.5%

Classical Probability - Should Happen

● The probability of an impossible event is 0.

● The probability of an event that is certain to occur is 1.
● For any event A, the probability of A is between 0 and 1 inclusive. That
is, 0 >= P(A) <= 1.
● The more of a procedure is repeated, the closer the observed probability will get to
classical probability.

Complementary Events - Events that are mutually exclusive (Can’t happen at the same
time). The complement of event A, denoted by 𝐴 consists of all outcomes in which event A
does not occur.

Eg:

Event - When we roll a dice of Getting 5 as a result.

Complement - Not getting 5 complements in 1,2,3,4,6.

P(5) = 1/6 = 16.67%

P(𝐴) = 5/6 = 83.33%

The probability of an event plus the probability of the complement must be equal to 1

P(A) + P(𝐴) = 1

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Addition Rule:

Compound event - A compound event is any event combining two or more simple events.

Eg:

1. The Probability of Rolling dice for 1 OR 5.

P(A or B) = Probability of A occurring or B occurring or Both A and B occurring in a

single trial.

2. P(Blond or Female) Not mutually exclusive.

Didn’t Do It Did It

Guilty 11 72

False Positive True Positive

Not Guilty 85 9

True Positive False Negative

1. How many people were Guilty OR Did it

= 11 + 72 + 72 + 9 = Not Mutually Exclusive.

= 11 + 72 + 9 = 92.

P(G or NG) = 92/177 = 52%

Addition Rule -

P(A or B) = Requires elimination of Any “Double Count”.

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A and B)

P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A ∩ B)

where P (A and B) denotes the probability that A and B both occur at the same time as an
outcome in a trial of a procedure.

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Disjoint - Events which are mutually exclusive, meaning events can not happen
simultaneously.

Eg:

1. Probability of selecting a “Heart” or a “Spade” from a standard deck of cards.

P(Hearts or Spades) = P(Heart) + P(Spade) - P(Heart and Spade)

= 13/52 + 13/52 - 0

= 50%

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 2. Probability of selecting a “Blond” or “Female”

Blond = 0.18
Female = 0.60
Blond Female = 0.12

P(Blond or Female) = P(Blond) + P(Female) - P(Blond and Female)

= 0.18 + 0.60 - 0.12

= 66%

3. P(Diamond or King) = P(D) + P(K) - P(D and K)

= 13/52 + 4/52 - 1/52

= 0.25 + 0.076 - 0.019

= 0.307 = 30.7%

Complementary events:

P(A or 𝐴) = P(A) + P( 𝐴) - P(A and 𝐴) = 1

P(A) + P( 𝐴) = 1

P(A) = 1 - P( 𝐴)

P( 𝐴) = 1 - P(A)
Eg:

P(Girl) = 0.512

P(Boy) = P(𝐺𝑖𝑟𝑙) = 1 - 0.512 = 0.488

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Multiplication Rule:

P(A and B) = P(event A occurs in a first trial and event B occurs in a second trial)

Eg: Two Questions

1. (T/F) - Pradeep drives an Audi

2. (MCQ) - Pradeep’s favourite colour is

a. Red
b. Black
c. Blue
d. White
e. Purple

If you guess randomly, Find the Probability of Getting both Q correct.

(T, a) (T,b) (T,c) (T,d) (T,e)

(F,a) (F,b) (F,c) (F,d) (F,e)

Probability of getting both right = 1/10

Q: Find the probability of Selecting someone guilty and then Someone not guilty

Didn’t Do It Did It

Guilty 11 72

False Positive True Positive

Not Guilty 85 9

True Positive False Negative

P(Guilty) = 83/177 = 46.89 %

And then

P(Not Guilty) = 94/176 = 53.40 % (176 because we already found one guilty)

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Conditional Probability: The Probability of an event occurring given that some other
event has already occurred.

P(B|A) represents the probability of event B occurring after it is assumed that event A has
already occurred. (We can read (B|A) as “B given A” or as “event B occurring after event A
has already occurred.”)

Independent Events: The occurrence of one event does not depend on the occurrence of
another event or subsequent event. (Non-Independent events are Dependent).

If A & B are independent P(B|A) = P(B)

Dependent Events: The occurrence of one event depends on the occurrence of another
event or subsequent event. (Dependent events are independent)

Eg:

1. If we roll a dice:

P(2|3) = P(2) — — Independent

2. If we draw a card:

With Replacement : P(Q|9) = 4/52 = 1/13 = 7.69 % – – – Independent

Without Replacement : P(Q|9) = 4/51 = 7.84 % — — — dependent

With Replacement: P(Q|Q) = 4/52 = 1/13 – – – Independent

Without Replacement : P(Q|Q) = 3/51 = — — — dependent (One Q was already

taken)

With Replacement: P(H|J of D) = 13/52 = — — — Independent

Without Replacement: P(H|J of D) = 13/51 = — — — dependent

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Multiplication Rule:

P(A and(Then) B) = P(A) * P(B|A)

If A and B are independent events, P(B|A) is the same as P(B).

P(A and B) = P(A)*P(B)

Eg:

1. In a bag of marbles there were 3 Red, 2 Blue and 4 Green. Find,

P(G and B) with Replacement = P(G) * P(B|G) = 4/9 * 2/9 = 9.87 %

P(G and B) without Replacement = P(G) * P(B|G) = 4/9 * 2/8 = 11.11 %

P(R and R) without Replacement = P(R) * P(R|R) = 3/9 * 2/8 = 8.33 %

P(B and B and B) without Replacement = P(B) * P(B|B) * P(B|B) = 2/9 * 1/8 * 0/7 = 0
%

2. Roll a dice

P(1 and 2 and 3 and 4) = P(1) * P(2) * P(3) * P(4) = ⅙ * ⅙ *⅙ * ⅙ = 1/1296

3. Cards without Replacement

P(A and K and Q and J and 10) = 4/52 * 4/51 * 4/50 * 4/49 * 4/48 =
1024/31,18,75,200

Multiplication Rule: Complements and Conditional Probability:

Complements: The Probability of “At Least One”:

Let’s suppose that we want to find the probability that among 3 children, there is “at least
one” girl. In such cases, the meaning of the language must be clearly understood:

1. “At least one” is equivalent to “one or more.”

2. The complement of getting at least one item of a particular type is that you get no
items of that type. For example, not getting at least 1 girl among 3 children is
equivalent to getting no girls (or 3 boys).

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 3. The complement of at least one is none.

P(At least one) = 1 - P(None)

Eg:

1. Flip a coin 3 times. What is the probability of getting at least one head.

{ HHH, HTH, HHT, HTT, TTT, TTH, THT, THH }

P (At least one head) = 7 / 8

P (At least one head) = 1 - P (NONE)

= 1 - P (No Heads)

= 1 - P (All Tails)

= 1 - P(T and T and T)

=1-½*½*½

=1-⅛

=⅞

2. Flip a coin 20 times. What is the probability of getting at least one head.

P (At least one head) = 1 - P (NONE)

= 1 - P (No Heads)

= 1 - P (All Tails)

= 1 - P(T and T and T……and T)

= 1 - ½ * ½ * ½ …….*½

20
= 1 - 1/2
= 1 - 1/ 1048576

= 0.999

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Counting:

Fundamental Counting Rule:

For a sequence of two events in which the first event can occur m ways and the second
event can occur n ways, the events together can occur a total of m * n ways.

1. Security code - 1st digit cannot be zero -

__9__ __10___ __10__ __10__ = 9 because 0 cannot be the choice

9*10*10*10 = 9000 total combinations

If you have only one chance = 1/9000

2. Security code - 1st digit can’t be 0 or 1 and the last digit cannot be zero -

__8__ __10___ __10__ __10__ __9__

8 because can’t be 0 or 1 & 9 because 0 cannot be the choice

8*10*10*10*9 = 72000 total combinations

If you have only one chance = 1/72000

3. Apple, Orange, Banana, Cherry, Kiwi

__5__ ___4___ __3__ __2__ __ 1__ = 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 120 Ways

Can also write as 5! = 5*4*3*2*1 = 120

Factorial:

● 0! = 1
● For any set of ‘n’ di erent items there are n! Di arrangements possible.

Eg:

1. There are 7 cool rides at Disneyland. How many di ways could you ride all of them?

7! = 7*6*5*4*3*2*1 = 5040 ways.

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Permutations Rule (When Items Are All Di erent):

Permutation - A di erent arrangement of items.

Requirements:

1. There are n di erent items available.

2. We select r of the n items (without replacement).

3. We consider rearrangements of the same items to be di erent sequences. (The

permutation of ABC is di erent from CBA and is counted separately)

If the preceding requirements are satisfied, the number of permutations (or sequences) of
r items selected from n di erent available items (without replacement) is

Eg:

1. A bet on an exact in a race is won by correctly selecting the horses that finish first and
second, and you must select those two horses in the correct order. The 132nd running of
the Kentucky Derby had a field of 20 horses. If a bettor randomly selects two of those
horses for an exact bet, what is the probability of winning?

We have n = 20 horses available, and we must select r = 2 of them without replacement.

The number of di erent sequences of arrangements is found as shown:

There are 380 di erent possible arrangements of 2 horses selected from the 20 that are
available. If one of those arrangements is randomly selected, there is a probability of
1/380 that the winning arrangement is selected.

2. There are 10 people who want to be president, VP, Speaker, VS. We want to select 4
people to lead the country.

10P4 = 10! / 6! = 5040 ways.

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Permutations Rule (When Some Items Are Identical to Others):

Requirements:

1. There are n items available, and some items are identical to others.

2. We select all of the n items (without replacement).

3. We consider rearrangements of distinct items to be di erent sequences. If the

preceding requirements are satisfied, and if there are n1 alike, n2 alike,......nk alike, the
number of permutations (or sequences) of all items selected without replacement is

n! = Total items

N1!, n2!...... = The counts of non-distinct items.

Eg:

1. 3 Apples, 2 Oranges and 5 Bananas.

10! 10!
3! 2! 5!
= 3! 2! 5!
=

2. How many di erent ways could you arrange the word “Statistics”?

10!
3! 3! 2!
= 50400
3. How many could you plan to have a family with 7 girls and 5 boys?

12!
7! 5!
=

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Combinations Rule:

Requirements:

1. There are n di erent items available.

2. We select r of the n items (without replacement).

3. We consider rearrangements of the same items to be the same. (The combination ABC
is the same as CBA.)

If the preceding requirements are satisfied, the number of combinations of r items

selected from n di erent items is

1. Go on 5 rides out of 25 rides at magic mountain you don’t care about which order
you go on the rides, how many combinations of 5 rides could we select?

25!
25C5 = (25 − 5)! 5!
= 53130 Combinations.

Baye’s Theorem: Bayes' Theorem states that the conditional probability of an event,
based on the occurrence of another event, is equal to the likelihood of the second event
given the first event multiplied by the probability of the first event.

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