Coanc 8
Coanc 8
Coanc 8
Monica Koesnovagril
Head of Advisory Services
Global Inflation and Interest Rate Trend
Inflation Rate – Selected Countries Central Bank Interest Rate – Selected Countries
14.00% 6.00%
12.00%
5.00%
10.00%
4.00%
8.00%
6.00% 3.00%
4.00%
2.00%
2.00%
1.00%
0.00%
-2.00% 0.00%
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Mar-20
Jul-20
Mar-21
Jul-21
Mar-22
Jul-22
May-20
Sep-20
May-21
Sep-21
May-22
Sep-22
Nov-20
Nov-21
Nov-22
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Mar-20
Jul-20
Mar-21
Jul-21
Mar-22
Jul-22
May-20
Sep-20
May-21
Sep-21
May-22
Sep-22
Nov-20
Nov-21
Nov-22
-1.00%
Indonesia US Europe EU Indonesia US EU
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
US Situation
Aug-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Feb-22
30-Year Mortgage Rate (LHS)
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Fed Fund Rate (LHS)
Oct-22
Nov-22
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
in million units
Indonesia: Listed Developers Performance
Q3 2022 Marketing Sales Achievements (IDR bn) Aggregate Developer Marketing Sales (IDR bn)
3,000
2,559
2,500
2,046
2,000
1,533 1,461
1,500
1,178
1,000
612 585 549
500 369
185
-
Summarecon Pakuwon Alam Sutera Bumi Serpong Ciputra
Damai
Q3 2021 Q3 2022
FY2021 9M2022
US 1,481.29 US 1193.49
Inflation Rate
10%
6%
5% 8%
4% 6%
3%
4%
2%
1% 2%
0% 0%
Information, communication…
Healthcare
Education
Transportation
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Period
Impact:
• Lower individual property purchasing power
Type of Expenditure
• Higher development cost for developer
Impact:
•
•
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
Impact:
21-Apr-16
21-Jun-16
21-Aug-16
21-Oct-16
21-Dec-16
21-Feb-17
21-Apr-17
21-Jun-17
21-Aug-17
21-Oct-17
21-Oct-18
21-Dec-18
21-Feb-19
21-Apr-19
Higher property buying cost for individual buyer – with KPR, KPA or KPG
21-Jun-19
21-Aug-19
21-Oct-19
BI 7-Day Repo Rate
21-Dec-19
21-Feb-20
21-Apr-20
21-Jun-20
21-Aug-20
21-Oct-20
21-Dec-20
21-Feb-21
21-Apr-21
21-Jun-21
An increase in BI 7-Day Repo Rate will be followed by an
21-Aug-21
21-Oct-21
21-Dec-21
21-Feb-22
21-Apr-22
21-Jun-22
21-Aug-22
21-Oct-22
Source: Bank Indonesia
UMP (in IDR)
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
Aceh
North Sumatera
West Sumatera
Riau
Jambi
South Sumatera
Bengkulu
Lampung
Bangka-Belitung
Riau Islands
Jakarta
West Java
Central Java
Yogyakarta
East Java
Province Banten
UMP - 2023
Bali
West Kalimantan
Central Kalimantan
South Kalimantan
East Kalimantan
North Kalimantan
North Sulawesi
Central Sulawesi
South Sulawesi
Southeast Sulawesi
Gorontalo
With lower UMP in most provinces in Java (except Jakarta and
West Sulawesi
Banten), labor-intensive manufacturing will be more efficient to
Maluku
North Maluku
Source: compiled from several resources
Papua
Interest in investment in Indonesia is still high. Albeit political issues
and the global economic recession
Domestic Investment
500,000 250,000
Investment (Rp Billion)
400,000 200,000
300,000 150,000
Project
200,000 100,000
100,000 50,000
0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 3Q 2022
Foreign Investment
40,000 80,000
US$ Million
30,000 60,000
Project
20,000 40,000
10,000 20,000
0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 3Q 2022
Source: BKPM
Investment in property sectors was 12% for domestic investment
and 7% in foreign investment (2022 YTD)
Domestic Investment (Value) Foreign Investment (Value)
Transportation,
Chemical and Others Warehouse, and Metal, except
17% Telecommunication Others
Pharmaceutical Machinery and
15% Food Crops, 23%
Industry Equipment
Plantations, and
5% 25%
Livestock
Mining 4%
Electricity, Gas 11%
and Water
6%
Mining
Construction Food Industry 10%
5% 6%
Housing,
Industrial Estate,
and Office
Trade and Building Electricity, Gas,
Reparation 12% and Water
6% Supply
Other Services 9% Housing,
Food Industry Transportation,
7% Food Crops, Chemical and Industrial Estate,
9% Warehouse, and
Plantations, and Pharmaceutical and Office
Livestock Telecommunication
Industry Building
7% 8%
8% 7%
Source: BKPM
Potential alternative sectors
• Healthcare
• Senior housing
• Student housing
• Education
• Cold storage
• Fulfilment centres
Office
Market
Ferry Salanto
Head of Research
Bagus Adikusumo
Head of Office Services
Office Market Remains Challenging for Landlords
Average Occupancy Rates CBD - Annual Supply & Demand (in sq m)
100% 600,000
95%
400,000
90%
85% 200,000
80%
75% 0
70% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
-200,000
65%
60% Annual Supply Annual Demand
55%
50%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E Outside CBD - Annual Supply & Demand (in sq m)
300,000
CBD Outside CBD
200,000
100,000
• The occupancy rate in the CBD is 75.1%, and outside the CBD: 75.7%.
• There have been several leads & inquiries coming in for expansion or relocation. 0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
• Given the high supply, the occupancy rate will continue to decline until 2023. -100,000
• The occupancy will improve in 2024-2025. Annual Supply Annual Demand
• The renewable energy sector remains resilient and will propel office market.
Supply Pipeline Remains High in 2023
Annual Supply (in sq m)
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
2022E
2023E
2024E
2025E
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Satrio
North Jakarta
South Jakarta
East Jakarta
Kuningan
West Jakarta
Sudirman
Thamrin
Rasuna Said
Central
Jakarta
Mega
• The overall rents will increase mainly because of the influx of many
premium buildings.
Possibility of Global recession
Some companies prefer to stay
Many companies are
in their current location and
becoming more cautious
reduce and reconfigure space.
when planning to relocate
and improve their facility.
Opportunities in 2023
ESG and Green Building
More companies consider relocating to a
certified green building.
100%
Many multinational companies will continue to
implement the hybrid working system.
74%
45%
Developers: need to remain flexible and
29%
accommodative.
Sander Halsema
Head of Retail Services
The Moderate Supply Addition Has Helped Stabilize
Retail Market
Annual Supply of Retail Space (sq m)
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
Middle Upper
Middle
Tangerang
Bekasi
Premium
Depok
Middle Lower
Bogor
0 0%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
• The mandatory booster vaccine has had a significant impact, as seen from the decrease in the number of mall visits.
• The occupancy rate in Jakarta and Bodetabek is currently below 70%.
• Businesses that previously focused only on shophouses are starting to expand into malls, especially the F&B sector.
• The tenants of the fashion sports sector are still expanding.
• New supply will continue to put pressure on the occupancy rate, at least until 2023.
• The F&B sector is still attracting visitors.
Rent will increase in 2023 by at Least a Similar to the Inflation Rate
Asking Base Rent Average Asking Base Rent by Classes • Rents have not
800,000 (in Jakarta) & by Area (outside Jakarta) changed and stay at
600,000 1,200,000 IDR566,095 (Jakarta) and
400,000
1,000,000
800,000
IDR384,121 (greater
600,000 Jakarta).
200,000 400,000
200,000
0 0 • Maintenance costs
hover at IDR148,971
Bekasi
Premium
Middle
Middle Upper
Middle Lower
Tangerang
Depok
Bogor
2022E
2023E
2024E
2025E
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
(Jakarta) and IDR117,812
Jakarta Greater Jakarta Area
(greater Jakarta) since
2021.
• Rent will still be
Service Charge Average Service Charge by Classes relatively stable, but
200,000
(in Jakarta) & by Area (outside Jakarta) maintenance costs may
150,000 250,000 start to be adjusted in
200,000
2023.
100,000 150,000
100,000
50,000 50,000
• The increases on
0 minimum regional
0
wages, interest rate and
Bekasi
Premium
Middle
Middle Upper
Middle Lower
Tangerang
Depok
Bogor
2022E
2023E
2024E
2025E
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Rivan Munansa
Head of Industrial &
Logistics Services
We Expect More Transactions to Come by the end of 2022
Annual Land Absorption Transaction During Q1 - Q3 2022
1,400
GIIC (Greenland)
1,200
Krakatau Industrial Estate Cilegon
1,000 KIIC
Hectares
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022 YTD
Griya Idola
Sentul Industrial Estate
• Q3 2022 sales was lower than Q2 2021, at 24.5 ha. • The largest sales during Q3 occurred in Karawang,
• Total transactions in 2022 YTD was 139.7 ha, about amounting to 7.5 ha by a textile company from Korea and
66.4% of total sales of 2021. two data centre companies (10.2 ha) in Bekasi.
• Data center companies are still the most active
throughout 2022.
Data Centre Sector Continue to Underpin the Market
Active Industrial Sectors in 2022 YTD • Sales of industrial land will still be
supported by the logistics and data center
Technology Automotive sectors as well as high-tech based industries.
Building Food Electronics
1% 7%
Material 5% 1%
• Another sector that will still actively
1%
Others absorb land is automotive related to
7% electric vehicle technology, energy, food and
Packaging
basic chemicals.
2%
Chemicals
7%
Manufacturing
5%
Logistics/
Warehousing
Data Centre 17%
40%
Land Price Remains Stable
Asking Land Price (/ sq m)
USD 350
USD 300
USD 250
USD 200
USD 150
USD 100
USD 50
USD 0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YTD
There is no adjustment to the selling price of the land, and it is unlikely that there will be a price
increase until the end of the year.
Q3 and Q4 2022
Developers and investors are
on a “wait and see” mode
Occupiers: Purchase prices and rental rates will The weakening of the economy can lead to more
slowly increase. potential distress assets.
Opportunities in 2023
Slowly increase:
• E-Commerce
• FMCG
Central Java
Residential (Apartment)
Market
Ferry Salanto
Head of Research
Steve Atherton
Head of Capital Markets &
Investment Services
Less Confidence in Launching New Project
Cumulative and Annual Supply
300,000
13,862
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022YTD
2022YTD
• The average selling price for Jakarta
apartments is IDR 35.2 million.
Average Asking Price (All Classes) Average Asking Rents Serviced Apartment
(Serviced Apartment)
IDR36,000,000 IDR500,000 • A new project in the CBD is Citadines
IDR34,000,000 IDR400,000
Sudirman, providing 253 units.
IDR32,000,000 IDR300,000 • The occupancy rate fell slightly to 59.9%
IDR30,000,000 due to the addition of new service
IDR200,000
2015 apartment units.
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022 YTD
IDR28,000,000
• Serviced apartment market slightly
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022 YTD
Globally/Regionally Globally/Regionally
Holding costs
Global recession uncertainty further
constrains demand.
Limited number of renters
2022F
2023F
2024F
2025F
2026F
2027F
2028F
2029F
2030F
2031F
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
at least between 40% and 50% of
expatriates live in the Greater
Jakarta area.
Number of expats as per 2021
Budget Allocation/ Budget Allocation/
Level
month (USD) month (IDR)
9,592
Supervisor 1,000 – 1,200 14.5 – 17.5 million
Professional
Manager – Senior
1,500 – 3,500 21.75 – 50.75 million 19,127 Consultant
Manager 38,745
Manager
Director 3,500 – 4,500 50.75 – 65.25 million
Board member
109,546
96,574 workers
Tenants
• Rental prices remain stable.
• Some of the landlords are still
flexible with tenant’s wishlist.
Opportunities in 2023
Foreigners may now own Hak Milik Satuan Rumah
Susun that are built on land that has Hak Guna
Bangunan or Hak Pakai.
Satria Wei
Head of Hospitality Services
Hotel Sector Has Shown Sign of Recovery
Number of Foreign Visitors
8,000,000 Annual Supply of Hotel Project
1,000
6,000,000
800
600
4,000,000
400
2,000,000 200
0
0 -200 2018 2019 2020 2021 Q1 Q2 Q3 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Jan - Jul 2022 -400 2022 2022 2022
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 • As the occupancy rate increases, the monthly
ADR figure also slowly increases.
Average Daily Room (ADR)
USD 125 • The G20 Summit and its activities will help
USD 100 boost hotel performance. The number will be
USD 75
seen in January next year.
USD 50
• In 2023, it is estimated that the number of
USD 25
foreign visits will increase so hotel
USD 0 performance will improve. This is a
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
momentum for hoteliers to prepare to receive
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 more guests.
Bali Will Need to See More Inbound Visitor Before Really Recovers
Average Occupancy Rate (AOR) Number of Visitor to Bali
100% 800,000
80% 600,000
60%
400,000
40%
200,000
20%
0
0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Average Daily Room (ADR) • Number of tourist visits to Bali continues to increase but still a
USD 150 minimal.
USD 125 • The current market conditions are much better compared to the
USD 100 beginning of the pandemic (2020).
USD 75
• Several things have marked the beginning of the improvement
USD 50 in tourism activities in Bali, including:
USD 25 - The easing of travel regulations (related to vaccines, PCR tests,
USD 0 and quarantine)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec - The opening of foreign tourist borders
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 • In 2023 the number of foreign tourists who will come to Bali will
increase, considering that two big markets of foreign tourists
(Australia & China) have not fully returned.
Hospitality industry current market landscape
Time to ensure the performance can return
to normal
Michael D. Broomell Ferry Salanto Steve Atherton Monica Koesnovagril Bagus Adikusumo
Managing Director Head of Research Head of Capital Markets & Head of Advisory Services Head of Office Services
Investment Services
Sander Halsema Rivan Munansa Lenny van Es- Sinaga Satria Wei
Head of Retail Services Director of Industrial & Head of Residential Head of Hospitality
Logistics Services Services Services