Iqv Cowen Germany
Iqv Cowen Germany
Iqv Cowen Germany
IQVIA HOLDINGS
AT A GLANCE
IQV is a Durham, NC-headquartered provider of analytics, technology, and clinical research ■ 4Q22 Earnings
services to sponsors of clinical trials globally. The company leverages its industry expertise, ■ Innovation to CI offering
technology capabilities, and big data resources to provide differentiated insights/execution ■ Announcement of M&A
that can accelerate the development/commercialization of new treatments. We believe the
market is overlooking L-T growth drivers at IQV's current valuation. Our $251 price target,
is based on our 5-year DCF, which implies shares can trade at ~16.1x our 2023 adj. EBITDA
estimate of $3.64B (vs. consensus of $3.65B) and 22.7x our 2023 adj. EPS estimate of $11.05
(vs. consensus of $10.91). We believe IQV’s strong market position in a large/expanding TAM,
better understanding of TAS growth drivers (48% of 2021 adj. EBITDA), secular shift to DCTs,
increased capital deployment, and resilient recession performance should result in multiple
expansion.
$300 IQVIA Holdings (IQV) is a Durham, NC-headquartered provider of analytics, technology, and
clinical research services to sponsors of clinical trials globally. The company leverages its
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industry expertise, technology capabilities, and big data resources to provide differentiated
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insights and execution that can accelerate the development and commercialization of new
treatments. The company operates largely on a service contract model, with customer
240 relationships ranging from months to years in duration, and customers spanning from life
sciences, biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies to other healthcare stakeholders
220
involved in the research and development process. IQV’s business comprises three main
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segments: Technology & Analytics Solutions, Research & Development Solutions, and
Contract Sales & Medical Solutions.
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160
Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22
Analyst Top Picks
Source: Bloomberg
Ticker Price (12/5/2022 ) Price Target Rating
Walgreens Boots Alliance WBA $41.21 $54.00 Outperform
IQVIA Holdings IQV $211.93 $251.00 Outperform
CVS Health CVS $102.01 $118.00 Outperform
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IQVIA Holdings IQVIA Holdings (IQV) ESG Material Category Rankings as of December 6, 2022
NYSE: IQV
Top 3 Material ESG Categories Dynamic MaterialityTM Score
ESG Score: 59/100 Access and Affordability 30% 58
Energy 18% 79
ESG Industry Percentile: 60th Customer Welfare 13% 81
ESG MATERIALITY
Establishing materiality is critical to evaluating a company’s ESG performance. Factors most material in one sector (or to a particular company) may not be as important to another. In
addition, the factors that are material – and the degree to which factors are material – can change over time.
Applying data to frameworks established by SASB (the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board) and by Truvalue Labs, we present in the chart above the three most material
ESG factors that investors should focus on for the company that is the subject of this report; the Dynamic Materiality™ of each factor (i.e., what percentage of overall materiality the
category represents for the subject company); and a Score for the subject company in each of these three categories (on a 0 to 100 basis, with 50 being average).
We also calculate an overall ESG Score for the subject company, which is presented above (in green) and on the cover of this report. A full explanation of how this ESG Score is derived
is presented below.
Cowen leverages technology from Truvalue Labs to generate our ESG scores. Truvalue Labs uses artificial intelligence to capture the stakeholder view of how companies are
performing on ESG metrics, using the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB) materiality framework (www.sasb.org). These data are leveraged to calculate a score for each
company, which allows Cowen to have a common framework and uniform way to approach ESG discussions with our clients. Cowen ESG scores appear on Company and Company
Quick Take notes and are updated daily.
Natural language processing is used to interpret semantic content from the original sources and generate analytics by applying criteria consistent with established sustainability and
ESG frameworks. Performance is scored on a 0 to 100 scale. A score of 50 represents a neutral impact. Scores above 50 indicate more positive performance, and scores below reflect
more negative performance. A score of NA means not enough data is available on the company to generate a score.
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Investment Summary
We are initiating coverage of IQVIA Holdings Inc. (IQV), with an Outperform rating and
$251 price target. IQV is a Durham, NC-headquartered provider of analytics, technology,
and clinical research services to sponsors of clinical trials globally. The company
leverages its industry expertise, technology capabilities, and big data resources to
provide differentiated insights and execution that can accelerate the development and
commercialization of new treatments. At its current valuation (14.2x NTM EV/EBITDA
vs. 16.0x 5-yr historical avg.), we believe the market is overly focusing on IQV’s R&D
segment and underappreciating 48% of its EBITDA, which comes from its Technology &
Analytics Solutions (TAS) segment. We believe TAS is more stable in a recessionary
environment due to sustainable increasing demand for its service offerings, the long-
cycle nature of IQV’s businesses and the defensive nature of healthcare. This results in
only ~1/2 of its EBITDA potentially being exposed to a future recession. Our $251 price
target (+18% upside to 12/5’s closing price) is based on our 5-year DCF, which implies
shares can trade at ~16.1x our 2023 adj. EBITDA estimate of $3.64B (vs. consensus of
$3.65B) and 22.7x our 2023 adj. EPS estimate of $11.05 (vs. consensus of $10.91). We
believe IQV’s strong market position in a large/expanding TAM, better understanding of
TAS growth drivers (48% of 2021 adj. EBITDA), secular shift to DCTs, increased capital
deployment, and resilient recession performance should result in multiple expansion.
Investment Positives
The CRO industry has seen declining valuations in 2022 due to market concerns around
the impact of a weaker biotech funding environment and a macroeconomic slowdown.
We see these concerns as overblown and expect relatively healthy growth in
biotech/pharma R&D spend in 2023. Our view is supported by results from our Cowen
Biopharma R&D Leader Survey, where 82% of respondents indicated that they expect
their R&D budgets to increase in 2023. Based on responses and total R&D spend
accounted for in our survey, we estimate that industry R&D budgets could see a 3.2%
increase in 2023. Our view is further supported by IQV's 3Q22 comments highlighting
improving emerging biotech (EBP) funding of $18.7B in 3Q (~$60B/yr, above its 5-yr
avg. of $23.6B). In terms of the potential for seeing a weak biotech funding environment
continue, we anticipate it would have a minimal impact to overall R&D budgets in 2023.
Survey results indicated that while 36% of respondents saw a negative impact to their
2022 R&D spend related to the poor funding environment, on a weighted basis, the
overall impact to R&D spend was just -0.4%.
For context, in its R&D Solutions segment (RDS), IQV operates as a contract research
organization (CRO), offering a wide range of solutions intended to facilitate the research
and development process for sponsors. R&D service offerings include project
management/clinical monitoring, planning/design, DCTs and clinical laboratory services.
We see a tailwind to L-T R&D segment growth/profitability, due to a more optimistic
R&D spending environment and the shift to DCT both supported by results from our
Cowen Biopharma R&D Leader survey. We model R&D revenues reaching $9.58B by
2025 (vs. $7.56B in 2021) and adj. EBITDA at $2.10B (vs. $1.48B in 2021), with adj.
EBITDA margins expanding to 21.9% by 2025 (vs. 19.5% in 2021).
We believe investors often do not fully appreciate IQV’s Technology & Analytics
Solutions (TAS) business and focus more on the R&D segment, given the R&D Solutions
segment has an established peer group of CROs compared to the TAS segment, which
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doesn’t have any pure-play competitors. IQV’s TAS business, however, has compelling L-
T revenue growth potential (9.2% CAGR 2022-2025E) and is its most profitable business
(27.0% segment EBITDA margins estimated in 2022 vs. 21.3% for RDS and 6.4% for
CSMS). For context, TAS offerings include technology platforms, real-world solutions,
analytics and consulting services, and information offerings. We believe L-T segment
growth will be driven by mid-double-digit growth in real-world solutions, low double-
digit growth in technology platforms, and high single-digit growth in analytics &
consulting. Information Offerings is the foundation of TAS and the catalyst for L-T
growth in all other TAS service offerings. We see potential for increased profitability in
real-world evidence (RWE) solutions due to offering higher-margin recurring solutions
(vs. legacy consulting-type work/margins prior) and potential for technology platforms
to be the most profitable offering.
We estimate IQV’s TAS TAM could expand by 1.8x to $243B by 2030 (vs. $135B
currently) driven by a 10.5% CAGR in RWE and a 6% CAGR for both Connected Health
and Tech-Enabled Commercial Operations. We believe within its TAS business,
RWE/connected health’s TAM is driven by increased complexity of drug
development/regulatory approval due to higher standards of care and new therapies
(e.g., biologics, genetically targeted therapies, gene/stem cell therapies, etc.). In our
opinion, IQV is favorably positioned to capitalize on market growth, given its ability to
develop/commercialize therapies, support/defend the value of medicines, and increase
efficiency for clients through insight-driven decision-making. We model TAS revenue
growth of 9.2% (CAGR in 2022-2025) and adj. EBITDA margins of 27.9% by 2025 (vs.
26.3% in 2021). See below for a more detailed discussion on TAS service offerings and
key segment drivers.
DCT Service Offering Benefits from Secular Shift, Supports L-T Growth
There has been a growing movement, driven by regulators and accelerated by the
pandemic, to move clinical trials away from academic medical centers/traditional brick-
and-mortar sites to include more decentralized clinical trial (DCT) models that engage
patients/providers in the community setting. Our Cowen Biopharma R&D Leader Survey
indicated that spend associated with DCTs will increase by ~66% over the next 3-5
years. Our survey found that ~21% of clinical trials conducted by our respondents used
a DCT model, with respondents expecting it to increase to 42% over the next 3-5 years,
indicating a doubling of clinical studies conducted via DCTs by 2027. Survey respondents
also indicated that their current R&D budget spend allocated to decentralized trials is
expected to grow to 33% of total R&D spend over the next 3-5 years, compared to 20%
of spend in 2022. We expect the increased industry focus to make trial populations
more representative, as well as demand from sponsors to see faster recruitment times,
will support continued adoption of DCT platforms and enabling tools. Given that IQV’s
decentralization capabilities span from patient engagement/recruitment to a fully
integrated platform, we believe that IQV is well-positioned to support sponsors who
want to conduct more decentralized trial models. And given our survey highlighted that
67% of clinical trials are conducted with a traditional CRO versus a dedicated DCT
player, we expect IQV to benefit from this increased utilization of DCTs over the coming
years. See below for a more detailed DCT discussion.
We believe IQV’s strong free cash flow ($2.30B in 2021) can support debt retirement in
2023 and give the company flexibility to also pursue acquisitions and repurchase shares.
IQV paid down $510M of its 2024 debt, resulting in a leverage ratio of 3.4x, with
management highlighting it intends to retire additional term debt in 2023. We believe
IQV will be able to achieve its 2025 leverage target of ~3.0x and see potential for it to
reach its target earlier, which management confirmed on its 3Q earnings call. IQV
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We believe IQV will prioritize M&A spend on biotech solutions in the higher growth Asia
Pacific region (+11%-13% growth vs. North America/Europe growth of 4-6%), as China
has seen a robust funding environment with its stake of global early-stage pipeline
drugs increase from 2% to 12% over the past 10 years. Therapeutic areas expected to
see significant investment include oncology, central nervous system, and gene therapy.
IQV’s biotech solution is a standalone business unit with its own dedicated
resources/SOPs/tech stack that offers a differentiated operating model to meet the
specific needs of biotech customers. Our revenue estimates do not include the
incremental benefit from M&A, which could represent upside to our 2022-2025
estimates. See below for a more detailed discussion on FCF, debt reduction and capital
deployment.
We believe IQV’s total market opportunity could expand to >$450B (vs. $285B
currently), growing at a 5.4% CAGR through to 2030. IQV’s market opportunity is split
between three markets: R&D spend ($150B TAM), RWE/Connected Health ($60B TAM)
and Tech Enabled Commercial Operations ($75B TAM). Results from our Cowen
Biopharma R&D Leader survey support long-term market growth and demand for
outsourced R&D services, as survey respondents indicated that outsourced R&D spend
is expected to increase at a 5% CAGR over the next 3-5 years. Based on our global large
cap pharma team’s expectations (covered by Steve Scala, R.Ph., CFA) of seeing total R&D
spend grow at ~4% CAGR through 2030, we believe that outsourced R&D spend can
increase from 50% of total R&D spend in 2022, to 54% in 2030, representing a $116B
opportunity (up from $75B in 2022).
We expect IQV’s industry expertise, technology capabilities, and ability to accelerate the
development and commercialization of new treatments to bolster its market position in
an expanding market. In our view, these dynamics support the company’s L-T growth
and profitability trajectory and justify multiple expansion for IQV. See below for a more
detailed discussion on IQV’s market opportunity, key growth drivers and survey results.
Investment Risks
IQV operates in a highly competitive market, often competing for business against its
clients’ internal divisions (e.g., discovery departments, development departments, sales
and marketing departments, information technology departments, etc.). We believe
IQV’s Connected Intelligence technology is a key differentiator, as it can be used across
all IQV’s businesses, all stages of the R&D process to meet the needs of clients. If IQV is
unable to continue investing in Connected Intelligence to innovate and sustain its
competitive advantage over its peers, which would materially reduce demand for its
tech/services, resulting in lower revenue and profitability.
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IQV’s TAS businesses (e.g., real-world evidence, technology platforms, analytics &
consulting, and information offerings) are reliant on data the company gets from third-
party data providers. IQV usually enters long-term contracts with these providers;
however, when entering/renewing, providers could increase restrictions on IQV’s use of
data, increase pricing or refuse to license the data to IQV. IQV’s operating and financial
results could be materially impacted if a meaningful amount of data providers-imposed
restrictions and/or refused to provide data.
Most of IQV’s R&D Solutions clients can terminate contracts with 30-90 days' notice and
can delay/terminate/reduce contracts due to delay/terminating a clinical trial, lack of
financing, regulatory action, product-related issues (e.g., shortages and safety failures),
or insufficient patient enrollment in trial. IQV receives a fee for winding down the
project upon contract termination; however, fees are not enough to cover forgone
revenues and incurred costs of the project. The loss/delay of large contracts or of
multiple contracts could adversely affect IQV’s revenues and profitability.
The U.S. Government is considering healthcare reform legislation and imposing health
industry cost containment measures, which could significantly impact the
biopharmaceutical industry. Other government entities are considering or have adopted
healthcare reforms to control growing healthcare costs. We believe if IQV’s clients’
profitability is adversely impacted by healthcare regulation/reform, this could result in
lower R&D or S&M spend. Lower R&D/S&M client spend would negatively impact IQV’s
financial results, as clients would outsource less business to IQV. If the drug approval
process is simplified, IQV could see weaker demand for its services. Lastly, new or
increased regulatory requirements could negatively impact its clients’ ability to conduct
industry-sponsored clinical trials, decreasing demand for IQV services and negatively
impacting its financials.
F/X Headwinds
IQV has operations in >100 countries, resulting in exposure to ~60 different foreign
currencies. The price of foreign currency exchange rates can fluctuate which could result
in potential earnings/CF volatility for IQV. To mitigate this risk, IQV enters foreign
currency forward contracts (e.g., Service Contract Hedging) to hedge foreign currency
CF’s from service contracts. Note, the company does not enter foreign currency
transactions for investment or speculative purposes. We believe F/X rate fluctuations
could impact the U.S. dollar value of foreign currency revenue/expenses and may have a
significant effect IQV results. IQV quantified >$500M revenue headwind from foreign
currency translation through 3Q22. We believe persistent weakness in foreign currency
R/X rates could adversely affect IQV’s revenues and profitability.
Company Overview
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Contract Sales & Medical Solutions: Health care provider and patient
engagement services, and medical affairs services.
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IQV’s Technology & Analytics Solutions (TAS) segment, provides critical information,
technology solutions and real-world insights/services to life science clients. TAS service
offerings include information offerings, technology platforms, real-world solutions, and
analytics & consulting. We believe investors often do not fully appreciate IQV’s TAS
business and focus more on the R&D segment, given that the R&D Solutions segment
has an established peer group of CROs compared to the TAS segment, which doesn’t
have any pure-play competitors. IQV’s TAS business has compelling L-T revenue growth
opportunity (9.2% CAGR 2022-2025E) and is its most profitable business (27.0%
segment EBITDA margins estimated in 2022 vs. 21.3% for RDS and 6.4% for CSMS). We
believe L-T segment growth will be driven by mid-to-high double-digit growth in real-
world solutions, low double-digit growth in technology platforms, and high single-digit
growth in analytics & consulting. Information Offerings is the foundation of TAS and
catalyst for L-T growth in all other TAS service offerings. We see potential for increased
profitability in real-world solutions due to offering higher-margin recurring solutions (vs.
legacy consulting-type work/margins prior) and potential for technology platforms to be
the most profitable offering. In 2021, TAS accounted for 40% of IQV’s revenue (flat vs.
2019) and 48.2% of adj. EBITDA (vs. 45.9% in 2019). Our model has TAS revenues
reaching $7.62B by 2025 (vs. $5.53B in 2021) and adj. EBITDA at $2.12B (vs. $1.46B in
2021). See below for a detailed discussion on TAS service offerings and key segment
drivers.
Real-World Solutions (25% of TAS): IQV works with life sciences and
healthcare provider customers to enable real-world evidence generation and
dissemination and draw conclusions about drugs’ safety, efficacy, and
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economic value. With a strong emphasis on privacy and data security, IQV
applies standard models and natural language processing technology to its
pool of data to create proprietary clinical evidence platforms, especially within
oncology and rare disease. It also continuously works with stakeholders to
source additional data and develop appropriate reimbursement models.
Management believes a key differentiator for this offering is its ability to offer
retrospective research to clients through utilizing its >1.2B non-identified
patient records. IQV believe this allows clients conducting Ph. 4 trials to build
larger cohorts of patients at a lower cost. We believe IQV’s exorbitant amount
of data helps clients assemble longitudinal patient history in a more efficient
way vs. competitors. RWE consistently grows at a mid-teens growth rate, but
management noted it has exceeded 20% in a few quarters.
Analytics & Consulting (25% of TAS): Service offerings within analytics &
consulting include strategic/implementation consulting, as well as analytics
and process outsourcing, to assist life sciences companies with improving
operational efficiency, reducing costs, and engaging with other stakeholders. It
also offers consulting throughout the drug development process, enabling
sponsors to navigate strategic hurdles. Consulting on pricing, market access,
and brand strategy is also available, with IQV offering expertise across
geographies and indications to maximize the success of a drug’s commercial
launch. Analytics & Consulting had historically been a mid-single-digit growth
business, but COVID accelerated growth to low double digits (last 18-months).
While IQV continues to hire in this segment and management does not see
growth slowing any time soon, its L-T guidance assumes growth does
moderate a bit to high single digits.
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In its R&D Solutions segment, IQV operates as a contract research organization (CRO),
offering a wide range of solutions intended to facilitate the research and development
process for sponsors. In 2021, its R&D Solutions segment accounted for 54% of revenue
(vs. 52% in 2019) and 49% of adj. EBITDA in 2021 (vs. 48% in 2019). Our Cowen
Biopharma R&D Leader survey and Modernizing R&D: A Primer On Decentralized Clinical
Trials – Ahead of the Curve report suggests a tailwind to L-T growth for IQV, driven by
the increased adoption of DCTs and clinical trial tools by biopharma/pharma companies.
This could result in R&D revenues reaching $9.58B by 2025E (vs. $7.56B in 2021) and
adj. EBITDA at $2.10B (vs. $1.48B in 2021). See below for a detailed discussion on R&D
service offerings and key segment drivers.
Project management and clinical monitoring: This capability offered by IQV can
involve coordination and execution of entire clinical Phase II to Phase IV trials
across a network of sites identified and operated by the company. IQV has
demonstrated its ability to reduce the time and steps needed to collect data
through its technology-enabled capabilities such as patient recruitment and
site startup.
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Clinical trial support services: A range of support services for clinical trial
sponsors fall under this umbrella, including assistance with data collection,
analysis, and reporting. Most of the revenue generated by IQV’s R&D Solutions
segment is derived from service contracts from clinical research, with IQV
responsible for the capture and documentation of clinical trial data in
accordance with regulatory standards. Management has noted that this
segment has seen strong demand that is expected to continue through 2025,
with a target opportunity of $67B for R&D Solutions by this time.
The third segment of IQV’s business is Contract Sales & Medical Solutions. Under this
segment, IQV offers health care provider engagement services, patient engagement
services, and medical affairs services. Most of the revenue generated by IQV’s Contract
Sales & Medical Solutions segment is derived from contract sales to the biopharma
industry and wider healthcare market. Contracts typically involve one or more
performance obligation that may include recruiting, automation, or deployment of a
client’s sales force. Contract Sales & Medical Solutions accounted for 6% of total revenue
in 2021 (vs. 7% in 2019) and 2.9% of adj. EBITDA (vs. 6.6% in 2019). We see potential for
incremental partnership/contracting opportunities with biopharma companies in the
Asia Pacific region as IQV accelerates investment in the Asia Pacific biotech industry.
See below for a detailed discussion of each business within this segment.
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Connected Intelligence has seen both widespread adoption and proven results since its
introduction. The technology has been used in 1,488 trials across 353 customers, and
over 296,000 patients have enrolled across more than 100 countries. It has been used in
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revision of protocols to mitigate risk in over 90% of trials, has led to an average 33%
reduction in time to identify sites compared to historical benchmarks, and has sped up
recruitment rates by an average of 34%.
Growth Strategy
IQV currently serves over 10,000 clients in over 100 countries. The majority of revenues
come from life sciences companies, including those in the pharmaceutical,
biotechnology, device and diagnostic, and consumer health verticals. IQV serves the vast
majority of the top 100 global pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies by revenue,
and many client relationships span several countries. IQV also offers its services to other
healthcare stakeholders, including payors, government agencies, healthcare providers,
and pharmaceutical supply chain companies. The company’s sales are well diversified
across its customer base, with the largest client by revenue making up approximately
7% of sales in 2021. An illustration of some of IQV’s key customers can be seen below.
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an interest in strategically acquiring assets and businesses to enhance its platform and
add on services.
IQV anticipates that several areas of the business will drive growth through 2025.
Firstly, given high rates of capital raising and growth in the biotechnology sector, the
company expects its biotech solutions to grow by over 20% through 2025. We note that
IQV’s biotech solutions are a standalone business unit with dedicated resources and
technology, which is a differentiating factor from competitors that we believe may set
the company up to outperform the industry in this area. Additionally, management
anticipates the Asia-Pacific geographical region, and especially China, will continue to
grow at a rapid rate given strong funding. IQV has invested significantly in building out
its capabilities in this region, including by rolling out IQV Biotech in Asia in May 2021,
and we believe it stands to gain from these positive trends. Finally, as oncology, central
nervous system, and gene therapy continue to gain share in clinical research, and the
drug development process evolves to become more tech-enabled, IQV expects that its
Connected Intelligence and patient-driven approach will set it apart in these areas.
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Market Opportunity
We believe IQV’s total market opportunity could expand 1.6x to >$450B (vs. $285B
currently), growing at a 5.4% CAGR to 2030. IQV’s market opportunity is split across
three markets: R&D spend ($150B), RWE/Connected Health ($60B) and Tech Enabled
Commercial Operations ($75B). Market growth is driven by overall innovation in life
sciences, accelerated R&D spend by SMID biotech, increasing complexity of drug
development/regulatory approval, demand for efficiency gains and ability to
demonstrate value of new therapies. We see these key growth drivers supporting TAM
expansion for IQV and demand for its businesses (e.g., research and development
services, technology & analytics solutions and contract sales and medical solutions). See
below for a detailed discussion on each market opportunity/key growth drivers.
IQV TAM Analysis ($B) 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E
Internal R&D Spend $75 $77 $80 $82 $84 $87 $89 $92 $94 $97
% chg y/y 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8%
Outsourced R&D Spend $75 $79 $83 $87 $91 $96 $101 $106 $111 $116
% of total 50.0%
% chg y/y 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Total R&D Spend $150 $156 $162 $169 $175 $182 $190 $197 $205 $213
% chg y/y 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
Real-World Evidence $20 $22 $24 $27 $30 $33 $36 $40 $44 $49
% chg y/y 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5%
Connected Health $40 $42 $45 $48 $50 $54 $57 $60 $64 $68
% chg y/y 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
Total RWE/Connected Health $60 $65 $69 $75 $80 $86 $93 $100 $108 $117
% chg y/y 7.5% 7.5% 7.6% 7.6% 7.7% 7.7% 7.8% 7.8% 7.8%
Tech Enabled Commercial Ops $75 $80 $84 $89 $95 $100 $106 $113 $120 $127
% chg y/y 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
Total IQV TAM $285 $300 $316 $333 $350 $369 $389 $411 $433 $457
% chg y/y 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.5% 5.5%
Outsourced R&D: IQV operates broadly in the contract research organization (CRO)
industry, which provides pharmaceutical, biotech and medical device companies with
outsourced product development services that help bring new drugs to market in a
quick and more cost-effective manner. While the CRO market in its present form
originated in the 1980s, the outsourcing market has seen dramatic expansion over the
past two decades as biotech and pharmaceutical companies (“biopharma”) turned to
outsourcing previously in-house, pre-clinical and clinical trial processes. Our Cowen
Biopharma R&D Leader Survey indicates that in 2022 roughly 50% of the industry’s
$150B in total R&D spend among biotech and pharma companies was outsourced to
CROs. We estimate outsourced spend will increase by 5% y/y and represent a $116B
opportunity in 2030, ~54% of total R&D spend.
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Figure 9 – What percentage of your clinical development is outsourced to Figure 10 – In the next 3-5 years, what % of your clinical development do you
CROs? (by R&D budget size) expect to be outsourced to CROs? (by R&D budget size)
Source: Cowen Biopharma R&D Leader Survey, November 2022 N=50 Source: Cowen Biopharma R&D Leader Survey, November 2022 N=50
Biopharma R&D Spend: We estimate total R&D spend will grow at ~4% CAGR through
2030, based on our global large cap pharma team’s estimates (covered by Steve Scala,
R.Ph., CFA) and our Cowen Biopharma R&D Leader Survey responses. While the CRO
industry has seen declining valuations due to market concerns surrounding weak
biotech funding and a macroeconomic slowdown, we see these concerns as overblown
and expect healthy growth in R&D spend in 2023. In our Cowen Biopharma R&D Leader
Survey, 82% of respondents indicated they anticipate seeing R&D budgets increase in
2023 (Figure 11). Based on responses and total R&D spend accounted for in our survey,
we estimate that industry R&D budgets will see a 3.2% increase in 2023. In terms of the
weak biotech funding environment, we anticipate minimal impact to R&D budgets in
2023. When asking our survey participants what the overall impact from the weak
funding environment had on their current R&D budgets, 36% of survey participants
responded that their R&D budgets were adversely affected, with another 36%
answering that they saw no impact (Figure 12). However, on a weighted basis (by total
R&D spend) our survey indicated that the overall impact of the weak funding
environment, impacted total R&D spend by just -0.4%.
Figure 11 – In 2023, what are your expectations for year-over-year Figure 12 – How has the biotech funding environment in the last 18
growth in your company’s R&D budget, relative to 2022? months (e.g., since 2021) impacted your current R&D budget?
Source: Cowen Biopharma R&D Leader Survey, November 2022 N=50 Source: Cowen Biopharma R&D Leader Survey, November 2022 N=50
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Decentralized Clinical Trial Market: We estimate the total spend on decentralized clinical
trials to be ~$30B and see it growing at 10% CAGR to $71B in 2030. Our DCT TAM is
based on results from our Cowen Biopharma R&D Leader survey, which suggests over
the next 3-5 years, 42% of clinical trials will use DCTs vs. traditional model (vs. 21% in
the last three years, Figure 13). We believe the increased emphasis placed on making
clinical trial populations more representative and inclusive as well as the desire to see
faster trial enrollment times, both advantages of the decentralized clinical trial model,
will allow DCTs to see rapid growth in utilization from biopharma over the coming years.
And while we have seen a rise of dedicated DCT companies enter the market with
innovative technology platforms to enable this growing DCT trend, our survey found
that roughly 2/3 of decentralized trials are conducted with traditional CRO partners
(Figure 14), indicating that traditional CROs will also be a beneficiary of DCTs’ growing
popularity.
Figure 13 – Over the NEXT 3-5 years, what % of your clinical trials will Figure 14 – Please estimate the proportion of DCT trials you conduct
use DCTs vs. traditional model? with each of the following entities.
Source: Cowen Biopharma R&D Leader Survey, November 2022 N=50 Source: Cowen Biopharma R&D Leader Survey, November 2022 N=50
IQV estimates its Technology & Analytics Solutions (TAS) TAM is ~$135B across two
markets: Real-World Evidence/Connected Health ($60B TAM) and Tech-Enabled
Commercial Operations ($75B TAM). We estimate its TAS TAM could expand to $243B
by 2030, driven by a 10.5% CAGR in RWE and a 6% CAGR for both Connected Health and
Tech-Enabled Commercial Operations. We outline market drivers and assumptions for
IQV’s TAS segment below.
Real-World Evidence (RWE) and Connected Health TAM: IQV estimates a total
addressable market for real-world evidence and connected health spending of around
$60B in 2021. This opportunity is split between $20B in demand from life sciences for
post-launch evidence generation, market access, and patient services, and $40B from
connected healthcare for revenue cycle management, analytics, and decision support
services. McKinsey’s Digital R&D report notes applying big-data strategies to better
inform decision-making could generate up to $100B/yr in value across the US
healthcare system by optimizing innovation, improving the efficiency of research and
clinical trials, and building new tools for physicians, consumers, insurers, and regulators
to meet the promise of more individualized approaches. Importantly, the report
highlights that biopharma is expected to increase its use of RWE studies to further
demonstrate the efficacy, safety, and outcomes of its products beyond the controlled
conditions of a clinical trial. RWE trials represent a new model for conducting clinical
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trials where patients are enrolled as part of their routine care and rich data is collected
through non-interventional means to examine how approved medications perform once
they are introduced into the population. RWE studies have the ability to improve the
speed, cost, and quality of conducting post-approval drug research. We estimate the
TAM could expand to $115-120B by 2030E, with RWE’s TAM reaching $49B and
Connected Health expanding to $68B. We believe RWE’s TAM could grow at a 10.5%
CAGR and Connected Health could grow at a 6% CAGR.
Source: Bloomberg, SDLC Partners, L.P. Company Data, Cowen and Company
Tech-Enabled Commercial Operations: IQV estimates a $75B TAM for its tech-enabled
commercial operations, which includes data services, software applications, IT services,
and commercial services such as consulting and sales operations. We see the necessity
for the biopharma industry to continuously innovate and the evolving need to integrate
and structure increasing sources of data driving mid-single-digit growth the tech-
enabled commercial operations market. We see IQV’s marketing opportunity growing to
$125-130B by 2030E, assuming a 6% CAGR.
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Competitive Landscape
IQV’s Technology & Analytics Solutions business competes with a wide range of
companies that offer information, analytics, technology, and consulting services to life
sciences companies and other healthcare stakeholders. On the global level, IQV has
identified several competitors, a representative sample of which is listed below. It also
competes with governments, payors, and other stakeholders that provide data services,
as well as startups looking to disrupt the healthcare information services space.
On the Research & Development Solutions side, IQV operates in a highly competitive
market. Its primary source of competition is traditional CROs, and while there are
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several hundred entities in this space offering limited services, IQV most closely
resembles larger CROs that have a global footprint as well as offerings that span the
spectrum of clinical trial operations. Like IQV, several of the largest players have
updated their offerings to add tools, technologies and platforms that support
technology enabled and DCT models. In addition to these entities, IQV competes against
in-house R&D teams at biopharmaceutical companies, academic institutions, and
hospitals. Finally, it competes with companies offering a narrower range of solutions in
this area, including DCT capabilities, clinical laboratories, and other supporting services.
IQV’s Contract Sales & Medical Solutions business competes with biopharmaceutical
company in-house sales/marketing departments, as well as other organizations offering
contract pharmaceutical sales/related services and pharma consulting. In the United
States, this division primarily competes with Syneos Health, Eversana and UDG
Healthcare.
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Management Overview
Ari Bousbib, Chairman & CEO: Ari Bousbib is chairman and chief executive officer of
IQVIA. He has served in this role since October 2016 following the merger of Quintiles
and IMS Health. From 2010 until the merger, he was chairman and CEO of IMS Health.
Prior to his appointment at IMS Health, he spent 14 years at United Technologies
Corporation, where he held several senior leadership positions. Mr. Bousbib joined UTC
in 1997 as chief strategy and development officer, became chief operating officer of
subsidiary Otis in 2000 and chief executive officer of Otis in 2002. In 2008, he was
appointed president of UTC Commercial Companies. Mr. Bousbib is a former partner at
global management and technology consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton, having joined
the firm in 1987.
Ron Bruehlman, EVP & CFO: Ron Bruehlman is executive vice president and chief
financial officer of IQVIA. He assumed this position after serving from October 2016
through July 2020 as senior advisor to the CEO of IQVIA. Prior to that, Mr. Bruehlman
was chief financial officer of IMS Health from July 2011. Before joining IMS Health
following the 2010 leveraged buyout, he had a 23-year career at United Technologies
Corporation, where he held multiple senior finance leadership roles, including running its
global corporate development and strategy group and serving as chief financial officer
of subsidiary Carrier Corporation. He holds a B.S. from the University of Delaware and
an M.B.A. from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.
Karl Guenault, SVP & Chief Information Officer: Karl Guenault is senior vice president
and chief information officer for IQVIA. Previously, he served as chief information officer
and vice president, operations at IMS Health. Prior to joining the company in May 2015,
he held a variety of technology and general management leadership roles during a two-
decade career at Cegedim, most recently responsible for the global IT department and
operational effectiveness activities. He also led global support functions, served as
general manager, CRM France, and served as senior vice president of the global CRM
business unit. Mr. Guenault holds a master’s degree from Institut d’Informatique
d’Enterprise.
Sanjay Chikarmane, Chief Product Officer: Sanjay Chikarmane is the chief product
officer for IQVIA. Prior to joining the company in August 2021, he served as chief
product officer and general manager at Hitachi Vantara Corporation from July 2018 to
January 2021. Prior to this he held several executive leadership roles with Illumina, SAP,
and BEA Systems, mainly in the areas of technology and informatics. Mr. Chikarmane
holds a bachelor’s degree from Indian Institute of Technology and a M.S. from Syracuse
University.
Jim Berkshire, SVP of Business Operations: Jim Berkshire is senior vice president, of
Business Operations at IQVIA. Previously, he was vice president of Organizational
Effectiveness at IMS Health. Mr. Berkshire led the Cegedim integration at IMS Health, as
well as technology transformation initiatives and LEAN activities from 2012 to 2017.
He joined IMS Health in 1995 and has held operational and business planning roles at its
corporate and Europe headquarters. He began his career in IT and Financial Audit and
holds a bachelors’ degree from Indiana University.
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ESG Discussion
We believe that IQV should score positively on ESG, given its commitment to increasing
its leadership position in ESG practices that further its corporate purpose of improving
healthcare outcomes for patients and advancing healthcare. IQV’s sustainable business
practices focus on the three pillars (e.g., People, Public and Planet), which we believe can
have a positive impact on social capital, health equity and environmental factors,
detailed below. Importantly, IQV emphasizes the importance of “diversity by design,”
which we outline in greater detail in Cowen’s AOTC report on Clinical Trial Diversity.
IQV’s Diversity by Design platform a priori identifies the life cycle of the pathway to
ensure diversity in clinical trials, which the company notes starts well before protocol
finalization. The company notes that during RFPs, it will also analyze and recommend
whether a sponsor’s proposed trial protocol adequately considers diversity whether or
not the client asks for it. IQVIA also works downstream in the community developing a
diversity alliance network that includes diverse investigators as part of a hub and spoke
network. It also has personnel and clinical trial educators, RNs, etc., that it deploys to
diverse investigator sites as well as its more traditional non-diverse investigators to
train them on developing more relationships locally. Additionally, it trains the staff on
how best to engage with various patients using behavioral training programs. IQVIA also
works with local pharmacies, patient advocacy groups, and other community
organizations to inform them of clinical research opportunities.
We believe IQV will have a positive impact on health equity, as the company works
alongside governments, NGOs, and academia to enable faster/more robust approaches
to solving the most pressing health challenges. IQV does this through shifting its focus to
health/wellness approached prior to onset of the disease and using AI for early disease
detection, treatment response prediction, and adverse event management. The
company also accelerates discovery/development of new treatment modalities for high-
disease burden conditions, increases delivery of scientific advances and reduces care
delivery burden on patients, caregivers, and communities.
We believe IQV’s focus on being part of the solution to climate change should have a
positive impact on the environment. For example, In 2021, IQV reduced its global real
estate portfolio to 5.7M sq/ft. (from 6.4M sq/ft.) as the company increased its focus on
providing alternative workplaces to employees globally. IQV has also transitioned to
renewable energy sources as evidenced by utilizing solar power panels for power at its
Marlborough Tech Park in MA and its Livingston, Scotland lab running on 100%
renewable energy. Furthermore, the company is working with My Green Lab, a
nonprofit whose mission is to improve the sustainability of scientific research to identify
enhancements within its labs.
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Model Discussion
IQV reports its financial results via its three segments: Technology & Analytics Solutions,
Research & Development Solutions and Contract Sales & Medical Solutions. IQV is a
well-established CRO that has been able to see 9% CAGR growth since 2017 and above
industry adj. EBITDA margins of ~21% (vs. industry average of 19.7% in 2022). At its
investor day last November, management issued L-T financial targets (“20 by ‘25”),
which include revenue growth of 10-12%, adj. EBITDA growth of 11-13%, and double-
digit growth in adj. EPS through 2025. We detail other key L-T guidance metrics in
Figure 19 below. We believe IQV is well positioned and on track to achieve these targets
by 2025, which the company reaffirmed on its 3Q call.
We estimate revenue of $14.46B in 2022E (+4.2% y/y) and see that growing to $19.38B
in 2026E (~8% CAGR). Our revenue estimate assumes over the next 5 years, Research &
Development Solutions can grow at a 7% CAGR driven by innovation, accelerated R&D
spend and increasing complexity of drug development, with Technology & Analytics
Solutions growing at 9% CAGR driven by in growth in real-world evidence trials, as well
as increased demand for IQV’s analytics & consulting services and technology platforms.
We estimate 2022E adj. EBITDA of $3.34B and see it growing to $4.87B in 2026E. This
implies a margin expansion of +335 bps from IQV’s 2021 adj. EBITDA margin of 21.8% to
our 2026 estimate of 25.1%.
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Figure 20 – IQV Total Revenue by Segment Figure 21 – IQV Total Adj. EBITDA & Margin
Source: Company Data, Cowen and Company Source: Company Data, Cowen and Company
Valuation Discussion
Our $251 price target (+18% upside to 12/5’s closing price), is based on our 5-year DCF,
which implies shares can trade at ~16.1x our 2023E adj. EBITDA estimate of $3.64B (vs.
consensus of $3.65B) and 22.7x our 2023 adj. EPS estimate of $11.05 (vs. consensus of
$10.91). We are comfortable in our PT and implied multiple due to IQV’s multiple
growth levers (e.g., large/growing TAM, underappreciated TAS, accelerated shift to
DCTs, increased capital deployment and resilient business model), which should support
its L-T revenue and adj. EBITDA guidance of 10-12% and 11-13% (CAGR in 2022-2025),
respectively.
Model Assumptions
Terminal Growth Rate 2.75%
Discount rate 10.00%
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We also look at relative valuation as a secondary measure (e.g., NTM EV/EBITDA and
NTM P/E), given the company’s solid L-T revenue/adj. EBITDA growth of 10-12%/11-
13%, margin expansion opportunity (+286bps to 24.6% in 2025E vs. 21.8% in 2021) and
robust FCF generation ($2.09B in 2025E vs. $844M in 2021). At its current valuation
(14.2x NTM EV/EBITDA and 20.1x NTM P/E), we believe the stock is attractively valued
relative to peers on both NTM EV/EBITDA (ICLR at 13.6x and SYNH at 8.2x) and NTM
P/E (ICLR at 17.2x and SYNH at 8.6x). IQV is also trading -1.8x below its 5-yr historical
average NTM EV/EBITDA of 16.0x and -2.0x below its 5-yr historical average NTM P/E
of 22.0x. We believe the discount to its 5-year avg. multiple as unwarranted, as well as
trading at a similar multiple to ICLR. We believe IQV’s robust L-T rev/adj. EBITDA
growth, solid FCF generation ($8.81B cumulative in 2022-2026 vs. $2.74B 2018-2021)
and capital deployment strategy should result in meaningful multiple expansion.
Figure 23 – Historical NTM EV/EBITDA vs. Peers Figure 24 – Historical NTM P/E vs. Peers
Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Cowen and Company Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon, Cowen and Company
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Selling, general and administrative expenses 1,734 1,789 1,964 2,003 2,053 2,176 2,311 2,456
% of total revenue 15.6% 15.7% 14.2% 13.9% 13.2% 13.0% 12.8% 12.7%
Depreciation and amortization 1,202 1,287 1,264 1,026 1,146 1,272 1,403 1,521
Impairment costs - - - - - - - -
Restructuring costs 75 52 20 19 16 16 16 16
Operating income 777 731 1,393 2,021 2,303 2,558 2,837 3,127
operating margin 7.0% 6.4% 10.0% 14.0% 14.8% 15.3% 15.7% 16.1%
Interest income (9) (6) (6) (11) (16) (16) (16) (16)
Interest expense 447 416 375 418 589 569 523 472
Loss on extinguishment of debt 24 13 26 - - - - -
Other expense (income), net (37) (65) (130) 59 20 20 20 4
Pre-tax income 352 373 1,128 1,555 1,710 1,985 2,310 2,667
pre-tax margin 3.2% 3.3% 8.1% 10.8% 11.0% 11.9% 12.8% 13.8%
Income tax (benefit) expense 116 72 163 310 359 417 485 560
income tax rate 33.0% 19.3% 14.5% 19.9% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0% 21.0%
Income before equity in earnings of unconsolidated affiliates 236 301 965 1,245 1,351 1,568 1,825 2,107
Equity in earnings of unconsolidated affiliates (9) 7 6 (17) (20) (20) (20) (20)
Net income 227 308 971 1,228 1,331 1,548 1,805 2,087
Net income attributable to non-controlling interests (36) (29) (5) - - - - -
Net income attributable to IQVIA Holdings Inc 191 279 966 1,228 1,331 1,548 1,805 2,087
net income margin 1.7% 2.5% 7.0% 8.5% 8.6% 9.3% 10.0% 10.8%
Adj. net income 1,276 1,252 1,760 1,941 2,081 2,352 2,631 2,942
adj. net income margin 11.5% 11.0% 12.7% 13.4% 13.4% 14.1% 14.6% 15.2%
Diluted weighted average common shares outstanding 200 195 195 191 188 187 186 183
Adj. EPS $ 6.39 $ 6.42 $ 9.03 $ 10.17 $ 11.05 $ 12.56 $ 14.16 $ 16.08
GAAP EPS $ 0.96 $ 1.43 $ 4.95 $ 6.44 $ 7.06 $ 8.26 $ 9.71 $ 11.41
Adj. EBITDA 2,400 2,384 3,022 3,343 3,641 4,027 4,441 4,871
adj. EBITDA margin 21.6% 21.0% 21.8% 23.1% 23.4% 24.1% 24.6% 25.1%
% change y/y:
Revenues 6.5% 2.4% 22.1% 4.2% 7.4% 7.6% 7.8% 7.6%
Gross profit 3.3% 1.9% 20.3% 9.2% 8.9% 9.1% 9.0% 8.4%
Adj. EBITDA 7.9% -0.7% 26.8% 10.6% 8.9% 10.6% 10.3% 9.7%
Pretax income 7.3% 6.0% 202.4% 37.9% 9.9% 16.1% 16.4% 15.5%
Adj. net income 10.4% -1.9% 40.6% 10.3% 7.2% 13.0% 11.9% 11.8%
Adjusted EPS 15.1% 0.4% 40.6% 12.7% 8.6% 13.7% 12.7% 13.6%
GAAP EPS -23.1% 49.5% 246.2% 29.9% 9.7% 17.0% 17.5% 17.5%
Source: Company Reports and Cowen and Company
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Revenue 3,409 3,438 3,391 3,636 3,568 3,541 3,562 3,785 3,784 3,796 3,859 4,091 4,075 4,078 4,146 4,414
Costs of revenue 2,293 2,323 2,253 2,364 2,323 2,331 2,321 2,412 2,450 2,480 2,495 2,586 2,618 2,644 2,660 2,768
Gross profit 1,116 1,115 1,138 1,272 1,245 1,210 1,241 1,373 1,334 1,316 1,364 1,505 1,457 1,434 1,486 1,646
gross margin 32.7% 32.4% 33.6% 35.0% 34.9% 34.2% 34.8% 36.3% 35.3% 34.7% 35.3% 36.8% 35.8% 35.2% 35.8% 37.3%
bps (103) 2 (183) 84 216 174 128 130 36 50 50 50 50 50 50 50
Selling, general and administrative expenses 442 482 498 542 488 483 517 515 511 503 506 533 542 532 536 566
% of total revenue 13.0% 14.0% 14.7% 14.9% 13.7% 13.6% 14.5% 13.6% 13.5% 13.3% 13.1% 13.0% 13.3% 13.1% 12.9% 12.8%
Depreciation and amortization 323 343 336 262 255 270 248 253 278 281 287 301 309 312 318 334
Impairment costs - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Restructuring costs 9 4 2 5 7 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Operating income 342 286 302 463 495 453 472 601 541 528 567 667 602 586 628 742
operating margin 10.0% 8.3% 8.9% 12.7% 13.9% 12.8% 13.3% 15.9% 14.3% 13.9% 14.7% 16.3% 14.8% 14.4% 15.2% 16.8%
Interest income (1) (1) (2) (2) (1) (2) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4)
Interest expense 99 94 92 90 86 94 108 130 145 147 149 148 146 144 141 139
Loss on extinguishment of debt 24 - 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - -
Other expense (income), net (37) (29) (62) (2) 10 33 8 8 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Pre-tax income 257 222 273 376 400 328 360 467 395 380 417 518 455 442 486 602
pre-tax margin 7.5% 6.5% 8.1% 10.3% 11.2% 9.3% 10.1% 12.3% 10.4% 10.0% 10.8% 12.7% 11.2% 10.8% 11.7% 13.6%
Equity in earnings of unconsolidated affiliates 4 1 - 1 (4) (1) (7) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5) (5)
Net income 217 175 261 318 325 256 283 364 307 295 324 404 355 344 379 471
Adj. net income 425 416 423 496 477 466 470 528 495 483 512 592 555 545 580 672
adj. net income margin 12.5% 12.1% 12.5% 13.6% 13.4% 13.2% 13.2% 14.0% 13.1% 12.7% 13.3% 14.5% 13.6% 13.4% 14.0% 15.2%
Diluted weighted average common shares outstanding 195 195 195 195 193 191 189 189 189 189 188 188 187 187 187 187
Adj. EPS $2.18 $2.13 $2.17 $2.55 $2.47 $2.44 $2.48 $2.79 $2.62 $2.56 $2.72 $3.15 $2.96 $2.91 $3.10 $3.59
GAAP EPS $1.09 $0.90 $1.34 $1.63 $1.68 $1.34 $1.49 $1.92 $1.63 $1.57 $1.72 $2.15 $1.89 $1.84 $2.02 $2.51
Adj. EBITDA 744 722 728 828 812 800 814 917 867 857 901 1,016 960 947 995 1,125
adj. EBITDA margin 21.8% 21.0% 21.5% 22.8% 22.8% 22.6% 22.9% 24.2% 22.9% 22.6% 23.4% 24.8% 23.6% 23.2% 24.0% 25.5%
% change y/y:
Revenues 23.8% 36.4% 21.7% 10.2% 4.7% 3.0% 5.0% 4.1% 6.1% 7.2% 8.3% 8.1% 7.7% 7.4% 7.4% 7.9%
Gross profit 20.0% 36.5% 15.4% 13.0% 11.6% 8.5% 9.1% 8.0% 7.2% 8.8% 9.9% 9.6% 9.2% 9.0% 9.0% 9.4%
Adj. EBITDA 32.4% 49.5% 20.5% 12.7% 9.1% 10.8% 11.8% 10.7% 6.7% 7.1% 10.7% 10.8% 10.7% 10.5% 10.4% 10.7%
Pretax income 152.0% -988.0% 167.6% 93.8% 55.6% 47.7% 31.9% 24.3% -1.2% 15.9% 15.8% 10.8% 15.2% 16.2% 16.6% 16.3%
Adj. net income 44.6% 81.7% 33.0% 20.7% 12.2% 12.0% 11.1% 6.5% 3.7% 3.6% 8.9% 12.2% 12.3% 12.8% 13.3% 13.5%
Adjusted EPS 45.2% 81.1% 32.7% 20.8% 13.1% 14.2% 14.6% 9.5% 6.1% 4.9% 9.6% 13.1% 13.3% 13.6% 13.9% 13.9%
GAAP EPS 159.6% -858.5% 157.9% 167.5% 54.5% 49.2% 11.8% 17.8% -3.3% 16.9% 15.3% 11.8% 16.5% 17.2% 17.5% 16.8%
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($’s in millions)
2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E
Assets:
Cash and cash equivalents 837 1,814 1,366 1,726 1,915 2,708 3,500 4,520
Trade accounts receivable and unbilled services, net 2,582 2,410 2,551 2,600 2,731 2,873 3,025 3,176
Prepaid expenses 138 159 156 163 175 188 203 218
Income taxes receivable 56 56 58 60 65 70 75 81
Investments in debt, equity and other securities 62 88 111 111 111 111 111 111
Other current assets and receivables 451 563 521 543 583 628 677 728
Current assets 4,126 5,090 4,763 5,203 5,580 6,577 7,591 8,834
Property and equipment, net 458 482 497 807 1,160 1,556 1,994 2,458
Operating lease right-of-use assets 496 471 406 406 406 406 406 406
Investments in debt, equity and other securities 65 78 76 76 76 76 76 76
Investments in unconsolidated affiliates 87 84 88 88 88 88 88 88
Goodwill 12,159 12,654 13,301 13,948 13,948 13,948 13,948 13,948
Other identifiable intangibles, net 5,514 5,205 4,943 4,642 4,292 3,894 3,448 2,953
Deferred income taxes 119 114 124 129 139 149 161 173
Deposits and other assets 227 386 491 512 550 591 638 686
Total assets 23,251 24,564 24,689 25,811 26,239 27,287 28,350 29,622
Liabilities:
Accounts payable and accrued expenses 2,512 2,813 2,981 3,222 3,461 3,725 4,016 4,320
Unearned income 1,014 1,252 1,825 2,017 2,167 2,332 2,515 2,705
Income taxes payable 108 102 137 143 153 165 178 191
Current portion of long-term debt 100 149 91 91 91 91 91 91
Other current liabilities 211 242 207 216 232 249 269 289
Current liabilities 3,945 4,558 5,241 5,688 6,104 6,562 7,069 7,596
Long-term debt, less current portion 11,545 12,384 12,034 11,793 11,543 10,793 9,793 8,793
Deferred income taxes 646 338 410 427 459 494 533 573
Operating lease liabilities 396 371 313 313 313 313 313 313
Other liabilities 456 633 649 676 726 782 843 907
Common stock 11,049 11,095 10,777 10,885 10,994 11,104 11,215 11,327
Retained earnings 998 1,277 2,243 3,471 4,802 6,350 8,155 10,242
Treasury stock (5,733) (6,166) (6,572) (7,037) (8,296) (8,705) (9,164) (9,723)
Accumulated other comprehensive (loss) income (311) (205) (406) (406) (406) (406) (406) (406)
Equity attributable to IQVIA Holdings Inc.’s stockholders 6,003 6,001 6,042 6,913 7,094 8,342 9,799 11,440
Total liabilities & stockholders' equity 23,251 24,564 24,689 25,811 26,239 27,287 28,350 29,622
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($’s in millions)
2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E
Operating Activities
Net income 971 966 1,228 1,331 1,548 1,805
COWEN SUMMARY:
Cash Flow from Operations1 2,942 2,571 2,821 3,084 3,471 3,876
Capital Spending (2,098) (1,662) (1,222) (1,299) (1,381) (1,452)
Owners' Cash Flow 844 909 1,599 1,785 2,090 2,424
1
Excludes non-recurring items
Source: Company Reports and Cowen and Company
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($’s in millions)
2019 2020 2021
Operating Activities
Net income 227 308 971
Adjustments to reconcile net income to cash provided by operating activities:
Depreciation and amortization 1,202 1,287 1,264
Amortization of debt issuance costs and discount 13 18 17
Amortization of accumulated other comprehensive loss on terminated interest rate swaps - - -
Stock-based compensation 146 95 170
Impairment of goodwill and identifiable intangible assets - - -
Gain on disposals of property and equipment, net 1 - -
Earnings from unconsolidated affiliates 9 (7) (6)
Loss (gain) on investments, net (43) (25) (16)
Benefit from deferred income taxes (157) (176) (138)
Changes in operating assets and liabilities:
Accounts receivable and unbilled services (122) 255 (138)
Prepaid expenses and other assets (92) (146) (15)
Accounts payable and accrued expenses 240 253 244
Unearned income (2) 180 591
Income taxes payable and other liabilities (5) (83) (2)
Net cash provided by operating activities 1,417 1,959 2,942
Investing Activities
Acquisition of property, equipment and software (582) (616) (640)
Acquisition of businesses, net of cash acquired (588) (177) (1,458)
Disposition of business, net of cash disposed - -
(Purchases) sales of marketable securities (3) (9) (10)
Investments in unconsolidated affiliates, net of payments received - 10 (5)
Investments in equity securities (22) (2) 5
Other 5 (2) 5
Net cash used in investing activities (1,190) (796) (2,103)
Financing Activities
Proceeds from issuance of debt 1,900 1,591 1,951
Payment of debt issuance costs (47) (33) (40)
Repayment of debt (899) (864) (2,091)
Proceeds from revolving credit facility 2,522 1,250 810
Repayment of revolving credit facility (2,776) (1,635) (600)
Principal payments on capital lease obligations - - -
Proceeds related to employee stock option plans 11 (44) (59)
Repurchase of common stock (949) (447) (406)
Distributions to non-controlling interests, net (18) (13) (758)
Contingent consideration and deferred purchase price payments (20) (22) (42)
Net cash used in financing activities (276) (217) (1,235)
Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash, beginning of period 891 837 1,814
Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash, end of period 837 1,814 1,366
32 COWEN.COM
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EQUITY RESEARCH December 6, 2022
Risks to our Outperform rating include 1) reduced technological innovation, narrowing its
competitive moat, 2) increased competition in DCTs and/or decelerated adoption of DCTs,
3) Tempered Pace of Capital Deployment (M&A/Share Repurchases), 4) loss/delay of large
contracts or multiple contracts.
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COWEN IQVIA Holdings
EQUITY RESEARCH December 6, 2022
ADDENDUM
Stocks Mentioned In Important Disclosures
Ticker Company Name
CVS CVS Health
IQV IQVIA Holdings
WBA Walgreens Boots Alliance
Analyst Certification
Each author of this research report hereby certifies that (i) the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject
securities or issuers, and (ii) no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be related, directly or indirectly, to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Important Disclosures
Cowen and Company, LLC and or its affiliates make a market in the stock of IQVIA Holdings, CVS Health and Walgreens Boots Alliance securities.
Cowen and Company, LLC is a client of IQVIA Holdings, Inc.
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34 COWEN.COM
COWEN IQVIA Holdings
EQUITY RESEARCH December 6, 2022
Additionally, the complete preceding 12-month recommendations history related to recommendation in this research report is available at https://cowen.bluematrix.com/sellside/
Disclosures.action
The recommendation contained in this report was produced at December 05, 2022, 20:12 ET. and disseminated at December 06, 2022, 05:28 ET.
Cowen ESG Scores: Cowen leverages technology from Truvalue Labs to generate our ESG scores. Truvalue Labs uses artificial intelligence to capture the stakeholder view of how
companies are performing on ESG metrics, using the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB) materiality framework (www.sasb.org). (See below.) These data are leveraged
to calculate a score for each company, which allows Cowen to have a common framework and uniform way to approach ESG discussions with our clients. Cowen ESG scores appear on
Company and Company Quick Take notes and are updated daily.
The process begins with capturing unstructured data from more than 100,000 sources, in 14 languages. These data are culled from a wide range of sources with varied perspectives,
including industry publications, news outlets, NGOs, trade unions, government sources, legal and regulatory filings, and academic publications.
Natural language processing is used to interpret semantic content from the original sources and generate analytics by applying criteria consistent with established sustainability and
ESG frameworks. Performance is scored on a 0 to 100 scale. A score of 50 represents a neutral impact. Scores above 50 indicate more positive performance, and scores below reflect
more negative performance. A score of NA means not enough data is available on the company to generate a score.
The algorithms are sensitive to both intensity and frequency. Truvalue Labs data contribute an indication of how stakeholder issues and potential controversies may affect a company,
based on real-time information. Truvalue assesses positive and negative ESG events contained in unstructured data and assigns a score per topic for each passage based on the
magnitude of sentiment. The score reflects not only whether performance is positive or negative, but also how positively or negatively the company is performing on the topic
reflected in the datapoint. For example, the algorithms would assign a relatively more negative score to a catastrophic oil spill affecting multiple workers and communities than to a
workplace incident that caused a minor injury to one worker. In both cases, the sentiment-based score would be negative, but performance would be evaluated as significantly more
negative in the first case than in the second case.
Cowen introduced its own ESG scoring methodology because we believe that existing ratings systems are mostly backward-looking. Data are often supplied by companies and thus are
subject to “greenwashing” (i.e., using data selectively to spin a story that is better than it actually is). In addition, most ratings systems generally don’t align with SASB, which we think
is emerging as a standard on the buy side.
Dynamic Materiality™ is Truvalue Labs’ approach acknowledging that companies, industries, and sectors have unique materiality signatures that evolve over time, determined by
factors such as shifts in business models, changing consumer preferences, emerging technologies, and new regulations. Dynamic Materiality™ is driven by how stakeholders respond
to events, behaviors, and externalities experienced in relation to a company or an industry. This stands in contrast to the view that materiality is relatively static and can be defined by
a company. For example, if a company appeared in 100 different sources over a trailing 12-month period, and 30 of the sources were related to the SASB Employee Health & Safety
category, the Employee Health & Safety Dynamic Materiality™ would be 30%. Furthermore, 30% of the company’s overall score would be driven by the Employee Health and Safety
Insight Score.
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Outperform (1): The stock is expected to achieve a total positive return of at least 15% over the next 12 months
Market Perform (2): The stock is expected to have a total return that falls between the parameters of an Outperform and Underperform over the next 12 months
Underperform (3): Stock is expected to achieve a total negative return of at least 10% over the next 12 months
Assumption: The expected total return calculation includes anticipated dividend yield
Note: "Buy", "Hold" and "Sell" are not terms that Cowen and Company, LLC uses in its ratings system and should not be construed as investment options. Rather, these ratings terms
are used illustratively to comply with FINRA regulation.
COWEN.COM 35
COWEN IQVIA Holdings
EQUITY RESEARCH December 6, 2022
250
200
150
100
50
Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20 Jan 21 Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan 22 Apr 22 Jul 22 Oct 22
36 COWEN.COM
COWEN IQVIA Holdings
EQUITY RESEARCH December 6, 2022
Natural language processing is used to interpret semantic content from the original sources and generate analytics by applying criteria consistent with established sustainability and
ESG frameworks. Performance is scored on a 0 to 100 scale. A score of 50 represents a neutral impact. Scores above 50 indicate more positive performance, and scores below reflect
more negative performance. A score of NA means not enough data is available on the company to generate a score.
The algorithms are sensitive to both intensity and frequency. Truvalue Labs data contribute an indication of how stakeholder issues and potential controversies may affect a company,
based on real-time information. Truvalue assesses positive and negative ESG events contained in unstructured data and assigns a score per topic for each passage based on the
magnitude of sentiment. The score reflects not only whether performance is positive or negative, but also how positively or negatively the company is performing on the topic
reflected in the datapoint. For example, the algorithms would assign a relatively more negative score to a catastrophic oil spill affecting multiple workers and communities than to a
workplace incident that caused a minor injury to one worker. In both cases, the sentiment-based score would be negative, but performance would be evaluated as significantly more
negative in the first case than in the second case.
DYNAMIC MATERIALITY™
Dynamic Materiality™ is Truvalue Labs’ approach acknowledging that companies, industries, and sectors have unique materiality signatures that evolve over time, determined by
factors such as shifts in business models, changing consumer preferences, emerging technologies, and new regulations. Dynamic Materiality™ is driven by how stakeholders respond
to events, behaviors, and externalities experienced in relation to a company or an industry. This stands in contrast to the view that materiality is relatively static and can be defined by
a company. For example, if a company appeared in 100 different sources over a trailing 12-month period, and 30 of the sources were related to the SASB Employee Health & Safety
category, the Employee Health & Safety Dynamic Materiality™ would be 30%. Furthermore, 30% of the company’s overall score would be driven by the Employee Health and Safety
Insight Score.
COWEN.COM 37
COWEN IQVIA Holdings
EQUITY RESEARCH December 6, 2022
38 COWEN.COM
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EQUITY RESEARCH December 6, 2022
POINTS OF CONTACT
Analyst Profiles
Charles Rhyee is a senior analyst covering Steven Braun is a vice president covering Lucas Romanski is an equity research
health care IT and distribution, which he has health care IT and distribution. He joined associate covering health care IT and
followed since 1999. He joined Cowen in Cowen in 2022. distribution. He joined Cowen in 2022.
2011.
Reaching Cowen
International Location
COWEN.COM 39