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Lecture 4

The document discusses project scheduling techniques used in project management including Gantt charts, milestone charts, line of balance, network models, PERT, CPM, PDM, and GERT. It focuses on explaining the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) method which uses three time estimates (optimistic, most likely, pessimistic) and the beta distribution to calculate expected activity times and project variances. The document provides an example of a PERT network for a pollution control project and calculates the probability of completing the project on time and with 99% probability. Finally, it discusses cost-time tradeoffs and crashing project activities to shorten duration.

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Inzamam Ul Haq
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55 views

Lecture 4

The document discusses project scheduling techniques used in project management including Gantt charts, milestone charts, line of balance, network models, PERT, CPM, PDM, and GERT. It focuses on explaining the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) method which uses three time estimates (optimistic, most likely, pessimistic) and the beta distribution to calculate expected activity times and project variances. The document provides an example of a PERT network for a pollution control project and calculates the probability of completing the project on time and with 99% probability. Finally, it discusses cost-time tradeoffs and crashing project activities to shorten duration.

Uploaded by

Inzamam Ul Haq
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Project Monitoring and

Evaluation
[MPM6133]

Dr. Jabir Mumtaz


Assistant Professor
CUST
PROJECT SCHEDULING
TECHNIQUES

Lecture 4
4 November 2021
INTRODUCTION

▪ Management is continually seeking new and


better control techniques to cope with the
complexities, masses of data, and tight
deadlines that are characteristic of highly
competitive industries.

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Techniques

Scheduling techniques help achieve these goals.


The most common techniques are:
• Gantt or bar charts
• Milestone charts
• Line of balance
• Networks Models
• Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
• Critical Path Method (CPM)
• Precedence Diagram Method (PDM)
• Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique (GERT)
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Techniques

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Advantages of Scheduling Techniques

• Help management decide how to use its resources to achieve time and
cost goals.
• Provide visibility & enable management to control “one-of-a-kind”
programs.
• Help management evaluate alternatives, & facilitate “what if ”
exercises
• Provide a basis for obtaining facts for decision-making.
• Help to determine manpower, material, and capital requirements, as
well as to provide a means for checking progress.
• Provide the basic structure for reporting information.
• Reveal interdependencies of activities.
• Identify the longest path or critical paths.
• Aid in scheduling risk analysis.
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Program/Project Evaluation & Review
Technique (PERT)

• PERT was originally developed in 1958 and 1959 to


meet the needs of the “age of massive
engineering” where the techniques of Taylor and
Gantt were inapplicable.
• The technique is based on the assumption that an
activity’s duration follows a probability distribution
instead of being a single value.
• The probabilistic information about the activities is
translated into probabilistic information about the
project.

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Drawing the project network (AOA)

• An activity carries the arrow symbol, . This represent a


task or subproject that uses time or resources.
• A node (an event), denoted by a circle , marks the start
and completion of an activity, which contain a number that
helps to identify its location. For example activity A can be
drawn as:
A
1 2
3 days

• This means activity A starts at node 1 and finishes at node 2


and it will takes three days

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Coming Up!!

✓PERT
Program/Project Evaluation & Review
Technique (PERT)

Three time estimates are required to compute the parameters


of an activity’s duration distribution:

◼ Pessimistic Time (tp ) - the longest time that an activity might require.
This time assumes that everything will not go according to plan and
maximum difficulties will develop.

◼ Most Likely Time (tm ) - the completion time having the highest
probability. Note that this time is different from the expected time

◼ Optimistic Time (to ) - generally the shortest time in which the activity
can be completed. It is common practice to specify optimistic times to be
three standard deviations from the mean so that there is approximately
a 1% chance that the activity will be completed within the optimistic
time.
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BETA PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION WITH
THREE TIME ESTIMATES

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Program/Project Evaluation & Review
Technique (PERT)

PERT assumes a beta probability distribution for the time estimates.


For a beta distribution, the expected time and variance for each
activity can be:

Expected time = ( Optimistic + 4 x Most likely + Pessimistic ) / 6


te = ( to + 4tm + tp ) / 6

Variance = [ (Pessimistic – Optimistic) / 6 ] 2


V t = [ ( tp - to ) / 6 ] 2

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EXAMPLE

PREDECESSOR RELATIONSHIPS FOR


POLLUTION CONTROL AT PAPER MANUFACTURING

Milwaukee Paper Manufacturing had long delayed the expense of installing


advanced computerized air pollution control equipment in its facility.

But when the board of directors adopted a new proactive policy on


sustainability, it did not just authorize the budget for the state-of-the-art
equipment. It directed the plant manager, Julie Ann Williams, to complete the
installation in time for a major announcement of the policy, on Earth Day,
exactly 16 weeks away!

Under strict deadline from her bosses, Williams needs to be sure that installation
of the filtering system progresses smoothly and on time.

Given the following information, develop a table showing activity precedence


relationships.
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EXAMPLE

Milwaukee Paper has identified the eight activities that need to be performed in
order for the project to be completed. When the project begins, two activities
can be simultaneously started: building the internal components for the device
(activity A) and the modifications necessary for the floor and roof (activity B).

The construction of the collection stack (activity C) can begin when the
internal components are completed. Pouring the concrete floor and
installation of the frame (activity D) can be started as soon as the internal
components are completed and the roof and floor have been modified.

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EXAMPLE

After the collection stack has been constructed, two activities can begin:
building the high-temperature burner (activity E) and installing the pollution
control system (activity F).

The air pollution device can be installed (activity G) after the concrete floor
has been poured, the frame has been installed, and the high-temperature
burner has been built. Finally, after the control system and pollution device
have been installed, the system can be inspected and tested (activity H).

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PERT : EXAMPLE
PERT : EXAMPLE
PERT : EXAMPLE
NEED TO CALCULATE

EXPECTED TIMES AND VARIANCES

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EXPECTED TIMES AND VARIANCES

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Probability of Project Completion

✓ The critical path analysis helped us determine that Milwaukee Paper’s


expected project completion time is 15 weeks.
✓ Julie Ann Williams knows, however, that there is significant variation in the
time estimates for several activities.
✓ Variation in activities that are on the critical path can affect the overall
project completion time—possibly delaying it. This is one occurrence that
worries the plant manager considerably.
✓ PERT uses the variance of critical path activities to help determine
the variance of the overall project. Project variance is computed by
summing variances of critical activities:

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Ship being built at the Hyundai shipyard,
Asia’s largest shipbuilder, in Korea.

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VARIANCE & STANDARD DEVIATION FOR
MILWAUKEE PAPER

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PROBABILITY OF COMPLETING A PROJECT ON TIME

Find the probability that her project will be finished on or before the
16-week Earth Day deadline.
We needs to determine the appropriate area under the
normal curve. This is the area to the left of the 16th week.

where Z is the number of standard deviations the due date or target date lies
from the mean or expected date.

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PROBABILITY OF COMPLETING A
PROJECT ON TIME

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PROBABILITY OF COMPLETING A PROJECT ON TIME

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PROBABILITY OF 99% COMPLETING A PROJECT

✓ We wants to find the due date that gives her company’s project a 99%
chance of on-time completion.

✓ First, we need to compute the Z-value corresponding to 99%.


✓ Here the unknown is the due date rather than Z.

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PROBABILITY OF COMPLETING A
PROJECT ON TIME

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PROBABILITY OF 99% COMPLETING A PROJECT

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Cost-Time Trade-Offs and Project Crashing

✓ The process by which we shorten the duration of a project in


the cheapest manner possible is called project crashing.
✓ CPM is a technique in which each activity has a normal
or standard time that we use in our computations.
✓ Crash time, which is defined as the shortest duration
required to complete an activity.
✓ Shorten an activity by adding extra resources
✓ The crash cost of an activity to be higher than its normal
cost.
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Cost-Time Trade-Offs and Project Crashing

✓ When choosing which activities to crash, and by how


much, we need to ensure the following:
▪ The amount by which an activity is crashed is, in fact,
permissible
▪ Taken together, the shortened activity durations will
enable us to finish the project by the due date
▪ The total cost of crashing is as small as possible

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Crashing Project Steps:

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