Topic 5

This document provides an overview of statistics and probability concepts including binomial and Poisson distributions. It defines key terms like probability distribution, random variable, and discrete probability distribution. It then explains the binomial distribution in detail, including how to calculate the probability of successes in n trials. The Poisson distribution is also covered, noting the conditions for its application and the formula for calculating the probability of x occurrences. Several examples are provided for both distributions to demonstrate calculating probabilities.

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Topic 5

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Zienab Ahmed

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Statistics & Probability

nd
2 Year
Cs

Prepared By
Dr/Marwa Yahya
Objectives
At the end of this lesson, the student should be able to
- Define the terms: probability distribution, random
variable, discrete probability distribution.
- Calculate mean and variance.
- Binomial distribution
- Binomial experiment.
Obtain the probability of a given number of events
happening in a fixed interval of time.
- Calculate the mean and variance of Poisson
distribution.
Revision
- Define the terms:
1. Probability distribution.
2. Random variable.
3. Discrete probability distribution.
4. Probability mass function.
5. Cumulative distribution function.
Binomial Probability Distribution

The binomial probability distribution is one of the

most widely used discrete probability distributions. It
is applied to find the probability that an outcome will
occur 𝒙 times in 𝒏 performances of an experiment.
One repetition of a binomial experiment is called
trial or Bernoulli trial.
Binomial experiment
An experiment that consists of n
independent, identical trials, each of
which results in either a success or
a failure and is such that the
probability of success on any trial is
the same.
Binomial random variable

A random variable that is defined to be the

total number of successes in 𝑛 trials of a

binomial experiment.
Binomial distribution
- The probability distribution that
describes a binomial random variable.
- A binomial distribution has the
following characteristics:
- The experiment consists of n trials.
- Each trial results in a success or a
failure.
- The probability of a success on any
trial is 𝑝 and remains constant from
trial to trial. This implies that
- The probability of failure, 𝒒, on any
trial is 𝟏 − 𝒑 and remains constant from
trial to trial.

- The trials are independent (that is, the

results of the trials have nothing to do
with each other).
Furthermore, if 𝐱 is defined as follows:
𝐱 = the total number of successes in n
trials of a binomial experiment

The probability of obtaining 𝐱 success in 𝐧

trials:
𝒏!
𝑷 𝒙 = 𝒑𝒙 𝒒𝒏−𝒙
𝒙! 𝒏−𝒙 !
where
𝒏 = total number of trials.
𝒑 = probability of success.
𝒒 = 𝟏 − 𝒑 = probability of failure.
𝒙 = number of success in 𝒏 trials
𝒏 − 𝒙 = number of failures in 𝒏 trials.
trial.
If 𝒙 is a binomial random variable, then

𝝁 = 𝒏𝒑 𝝈𝟐 = 𝒏𝒑𝒒 𝝈 = 𝒏𝒑𝒒

where 𝒏 is the number of trials, 𝒑 is the probability

of success on each trial, and 𝒒 = 𝟏 − 𝒑 is the
probability of failure on each
Example (6)
Find 𝐏(𝐱 = 𝟐) for a binomial random variable
with 𝐧 = 𝟏𝟎 and 𝐏 = 𝟎. 𝟏.
Solution
𝟏𝟎!
𝐏 𝐱=𝟐 = (𝟎. 𝟏)𝟐 (𝟎. 𝟗)𝟖
𝟐! 𝟏𝟎−𝟐 !
𝟏𝟎 𝟗
= 𝟎. 𝟏 𝟎. 𝟒𝟑𝟎𝟒𝟔𝟕 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟗𝟑𝟕.
𝟐 𝟏
Example (7)
Over a long period of time, it has been observed
that a professional basketball can make a free
thrown on a given trial with probability equal to
0.8. Suppose he shoots four free throws.
A) What is the probability that he will make
exactly two free throws?
𝟒! 𝟐 𝟐
𝑷 𝒙=𝟐 = 𝟎. 𝟖𝟎 𝟎. 𝟐𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟏𝟓𝟑𝟔
𝟐!𝟐!
Solution
B) What is the probability that he will make
at least one free throws?.
= 𝑷 𝟏 + 𝑷 𝟐 + 𝑷 𝟑 + 𝑷 𝟒 = 𝟏 − 𝑷(𝟎)
𝟒! 𝟎 𝟒
=𝟏− 𝟎. 𝟖 𝟎. 𝟐 = 𝟏 − 𝟎. 𝟎𝟎𝟏𝟔 =
𝟎!𝟒!
𝟎. 𝟗𝟗𝟖𝟒
Although you could calculate 𝑷 𝒙 = 𝟏 ,

𝑷(𝒙 = 𝟐), 𝑷(𝒙 = 𝟑) and 𝑷(𝒙 = 𝟒) to find this

probability, using the complement of the event
makes your job easier; that is

𝑷 𝒙 ≥ 𝟏 = 𝟏 − 𝑷 𝒙 < 𝟏 = 𝟏 − 𝑷(𝒙 = 𝟎)
Poisson Probability Distribution
The Poisson probability distribution, named
after the French mathematician Simeon D.
Poisson, is another important probability
distribution of a discrete random variable that
has a large number of applications. Its
probability distribution provides a good model
for data that represent the number of
occurrences of a specified event in a given unit
of time or space.
The following are few examples of experiments for which
the random variable 𝐱 can be modeled by the Poisson
random variable:
❑ The number of calls received by a switchboard during a
given period of time.
❑The number of accidents that occur at a company during
a one-month period
❑The number of television sets sold at a department store
during a given week.
❑The number of customer arrivals at a checkout counter
during a given minute
The following three conditions must be satisfied to
apply the Poisson probability distribution
➢𝑥 is a discrete random variable.
➢The occurrences are random.
➢The occurrences are independent.
Let 𝜇 be the average number of units that an event
occurs in a certain period of time or space. The
probability of 𝑥 occurrences of this event is

𝜇𝑥 𝑒 −𝑥
𝑃 𝑥 =
𝑥!
𝑥 −𝜇
𝜇 𝑒
𝑃 𝑥 =
𝑥!
𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐯𝐚𝐥𝐮𝐞𝐬 𝒐𝒇 𝒙 = 𝟎, 𝟏, 𝟐, 𝟑, … . The mean and
standard deviation of the Poisson random
variable 𝒙 are
Mean: 𝝁,
Standard deviation: 𝝈 = 𝝁.
The symbol 𝒆 = 𝟐. 𝟕𝟏𝟖𝟐𝟖 is evaluated using
your scientific calculator, which should have a
function such as 𝒆𝒙 .
Example (1)

The average number of traffic accident on a certain

of highway is two per week. Assume that the
number of accidents follows a Poisson distribution
with 𝝁 = 𝟐.
1) Find the probability of no accidents on this
section of highway during a 1-week period.
2) Find the probability of at most three accidents
on this section of highway during a 2-week period.
Solution
The average number of accidents per week is 𝜇 =
2. Therefore, the probability of no accidents on
this section of highway during a given week is

20 𝑒 −2
𝑃 𝑥=0 =𝑃 0 = = 𝑒 −2 = 0.135335.
0!
During a 2-week period, the average number of accidents
on this section of highway is 2(2) = 4. The probability of at
most three accidents during a 2-week period is
𝑃 𝑥 ≤3 =𝑃 0 +𝑃 1 +𝑃 2 +𝑃 3 ,
40 𝑒 −4
𝑃 𝑥=0 =𝑃 0 = = 0.18316
0!
41 𝑒 −4
𝑃 𝑥=1 =𝑃 0 = = 0.07326
1!
42 𝑒 −4
𝑃 𝑥=2 =𝑃 0 = = 0.14652
2!
43 𝑒 −4
𝑃 𝑥=3 =𝑃 0 = = 0.19536
3!
𝑃 𝑥 ≤ 3 = 0.18316 + 0.07326 + 0.14652 + 0.19536 =
0.433471.
Example (2)
A washing machine in a Laundromat breaks
down an average of three times per month.
Using the Poisson probability distribution
formula, find the probability that during the
next month this machine will have
1) Exactly two breakdowns
2) At most one breakdown.
Solution
The probability that exactly two breakdowns will

be observed during the next month is

32 𝑒 −3 (9)(0.049787)
𝑃 𝑥=2 = = = 0.2240
2! 2
The probability that at most one breakdown will
be observed during the next month is given by the
sum of the probabilities of zero and one
breakdown. Thus,
𝑃 𝑎𝑡 𝑚𝑜𝑠𝑡 1 𝑏𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑘𝑑𝑜𝑤𝑛 =
𝑃(𝑥 = 0) + 𝑃(𝑥 = 1)
30 𝑒 −3 31 𝑒 −3 (1)(0.049787) (3)(0.049787)
= + = +
0! 1! 1 1
= 0.0498 + 0.1494 = 0.1992.
Example (3)
A student receives, on average 7 messages in a 2
hours period:
1) what is the probability the student will receive 9
text messages in a 2 hours period?
𝜇 𝑥 𝑒 −𝜇
𝑃 𝑥 =
𝑥!
𝜇 = 7, 𝑥 = 9
79 𝑒 −9
𝑃 9 = = 0.1014
9!
Solution
2) what is the probability the student will receive 24 text
messages in an 8 hours period?
𝜇𝑥 𝑒 −𝜇
𝑃 𝑥 =
𝑥!
𝜇1 = 7 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 = 2ℎ
𝜇2 =? 𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 = 8ℎ

7×8
𝜇2 = = 28ℎ
2
2824 𝑒 −28
𝑃 24 = = 0.060095
24!
THANK You