Limit Order Book
Limit Order Book
Limit Order Book
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access to The Review of Financial Studies
Ohad Kadan
John M. Olin School of Business, Washington University in St. Louis
Eugene Kandel
School of Business Administration, and Department of Economics,
Hebrew University
The timing of trading needs is not synchronized across investors, yet trade
execution requires that counterparties trade simultaneously. Markets
address this problem in one of the three ways: call auctions, dealer
markets, and limit order markets. Call auctions require participants to
either wait or trade ahead of their desired time; no one gets immediacy,
unless by chance. Dealer markets, on the contrary, provide immediacy to
all at the same price, whether it is desired or not. Finally, a limit order
market allows investors to demand immediacy, or supply it, according to
their choice. The growing importance of limit order markets suggests that
this feature is valuable, which in turn implies that traders value order
We thank Bruno Biais, David Easley, Larry Glosten, Larry Harris, Joel Hasbrouck, Frank de Jong, Pete
Kyle, Leslie Marx, Narayan Naik, Maureen O'Hara (the editor), Christine Parlour, Patrik Sandas,
Duane Seppi, Ilya Strebulaev, Isabel Tkach, Avi Wohl, and two anonymous referees for very helpful
comments and suggestions. Comments by seminar participants at Amsterdam, BGU, Bar Ilan, CREST,
Emory, Hebrew, Illinois, Insead, LBS, Stockholm, Tel Aviv, Thema, Toulouse, Wharton, and by
participants at the Western Finance Association 2001 meeting, the CEPR 2001 Symposium at Gerzensee,
and the RFS 2002 Imperfect Markets Conference have been very helpful as well. The authors thank the
J. Nachmias Fund, and The Kruger Center at Hebrew University for financial support. Thierry Foucault
is also affiliated with GREGHEC. He thanks la Fondation HEC for additional financial support.
Finally, we are grateful to Michael Borns for expert editorial assistance. Address correspondence to
Eugene Kandel, Department of Economics, Hebrew University, Mt. Scopus, Jerusalem, Israel, 91905",
and CEPR, or e-mail:[email protected].
? The Author 2005. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:
[email protected]
doi: 10.1093/rfs/hhi029 Advance Access publication August 31, 2005
Jain (2002) shows that in the late 1990s, 48% of the 139 stock markets throughout the world are
organized as a pure limit order book, while another 14% are hybrid with the limit order book as the
core engine. Examples of limit order markets include Island and Euronext in equity markets, Reuters D-
2002 in the FX market or MTS in the bond market.
2 Demsetz (1968) focuses on the NYSE. This market is not a pure limit order market since liquidity is
supplied both by limit order traders and dealers (the specialists). Demsetz sees waiting costs as particu-
larly important for traders who choose between limit and market orders.
3For instance, Biais, Hillion and Spatt (1995) find that liquidity demand shocks, manifested by a sequence
of market orders, raise the spread. Then the spread reverts to the competitive level as liquidity suppliers
place new orders within the prevailing quotes. DeGryse et al. (2003) and Coppejans, Domowitz, and
Madhavan (2003) have also studied this phenomenon.
1172
(ii) the expected time to execution for limit orders, (iii) the stationary
probability distribution of the spread, and (iv) the expected duration
between trades (conditional on the size of the inside spread). In equili-
brium, patient traders tend to provide liquidity to less patient traders.
A string of market orders, that is, a liquidity shock, increases the
spread. We measure market resiliency by the probability that, after a
liquidity shock, the spread reverts to its former level before the next
transaction. Factors that induce traders to post-aggressive limit orders
make the market resilient. For instance, other things being equal, an
increase in the proportion of patient traders reduces liquidity demand
and lengthens the expected time to execution of limit orders. As a result,
liquidity suppliers submit more aggressive limit orders to reduce their
waiting times, in line with Demsetz's (1968) intuition. Consequently,
when the proportion of patient traders increases, the spread narrows
more rapidly, making the market more resilient. Higher arrival rates
translate into shorter waiting times for limit order traders. The latter
respond with less aggressive limit orders, thus more orders are required
before the spread reverts to its competitive level; consequently, market
resiliency decreases in the order arrival rate.
Interestingly, the distribution of spreads depends on the composition of
the trading population. Large spreads are more frequent in markets
dominated by impatient traders, because these markets are less resilient.
A reduction of the tick size in these markets can result in higher spreads.
Actually, this reduction impairs market resiliency by enabling traders to
bid less aggressively.
We derive several empirical predictions.4 The advent of high frequency
databases has spurred an interest in the role of time in the trading process
[e.g., Easley and O'Hara (1992), Engle and Russel (1998), Hasbrouck
(1999), and Lo, McKinlay, and Zhang (2001)]. The time between trades
in our model is endogenous since a transaction occurs when a trader opts
for a market order. We show that the average time until a transaction,
conditional on the quoted spread for the prior transaction, increases with
the size of the spread. Furthermore, there is a positive relation between
this conditional duration and market resiliency. This result stems from
the fact that, other things being equal, both market resiliency and the
expected duration between trades decrease with the proportion of impa-
tient traders. We also propose to explain intraday liquidity patterns by
time-series variations in the proportion of patient traders. Assuming
traders become more impatient over the course of the trading day, our
model predicts an increase in spreads and trading frequency toward the
The number of empirical papers on limit order markets is growing fast. These include Handa and
Schwartz (1996), Harris and Hasbrouck (1996), Kavajecz (1999), Sandas (2001), Hollifield, Miller, and
Sandas (2004), Hollifield et al. (2003), Kavajecz and Odders-White (2003) and other references which are
mentioned later in the article.
1173
end of the day. This should be concomitant with a decline in limit order
aggressiveness and market resiliency. Whereas the first two predictions
are consistent with the empirical findings, as far as we know the latter has
not yet been tested.
Most of the models in the theoretical literature such as Glosten (1994),
Chakravarty and Holden (1995), Rock (1996), Seppi (1997), Biais,
Martimort, and Rochet (2000), or Parlour and Seppi (2003) focus on
the optimal bidding strategies for limit order traders. These models are
static, which precludes the analysis of the determinants of market resi-
liency. Furthermore, the choice between market and limit orders is exo-
genous in these models. In particular, this choice is not explicitly related
to the level of waiting costs, as it is in our model.5
Parlour (1998), Foucault (1999), and Goettler, Parlour, and Rajan
(2003) study dynamic models.6 Parlour (1998) shows how the order
placement decision is influenced by the depth available at the inside
quotes. Foucault (1999) analyzes the impact of the risk of being picked
off on traders' order placement strategies. Goettler, Parlour, and Rajan
(2003) model limit order trading as a stochastic sequential game and
develop a technique to solve for the equilibrium numerically. In these
models, limit order traders do not bear waiting costs, and time to execu-
tion does not influence traders' bidding strategies.7 In contrast, time to
execution plays a central role here.
There is no asymmetric information among traders in our model. This
approach seems reasonable, as a first cut, since it is very difficult to solve
dynamic models with traders who can strategically choose between mar-
ket and limit orders. Frictions in our model (the bid-ask spread and the
waiting time) are due to (i) the waiting costs and (ii) strategic rent-seeking
by patient traders. Frictions that are not caused by informational asym-
metries appear to be large in practice [see Huang and Stoll (1997) or
Madhavan, Richardson, and Roomans (1997)]. For instance, Huang and
Stoll (1997) estimate that 88.8% of the bid-ask spread on average is due to
non-informational frictions (so-called order processing costs). Given this
evidence, it is important to understand the theory of price formation
when frictions are not due to informational asymmetries.
The article is organized as follows. Section 1 describes the model.
Section 2 derives the equilibrium of the limit order market and analyzes
the determinants of market resiliency. Section 3 discusses in detail the
5 In extant models, traders who submit limit orders may be seen as very patient, while those who submit
market orders may be seen as extremely impatient. We consider a less polar case.
6 Angel (1994), Domowitz and Wang (1994), and Harris (1998) study models with an exogenous order
flow. We use more restrictive assumptions on the primitives of the model that anable us to endogenize the
order flow. Rosu (2004) uses a similar approach."
7 In Parlour (1998) traders' utility does not depend on their execution timing during the market day, i.e.,
there is no cost of waiting.
1174
1. Model
1.1 Timing
This is an infinite horizon model with a continuous time line. Traders
arrive at the market according to a Poisson process with parameter A > 0:
the number of traders arriving during a time interval of length T is
distributed according to a Poisson distribution with parameter AT. As a
result, the inter-arrival times are distributed exponentially, and the
expected time between arrivals is I. We refer to the time elapsed between
two consecutive trader arrivals as a period.
8 Seppi (1997) and Parlour and Seppi (2003) use a similar specification of the admissible price range.
9 For instance, s = 4 means that the spread is equal to four ticks. If the tick is equal to $1, then the
corresponding spread expressed in dollars is s"' = $0.25.
1175
order, which gets immediate execution at the best quote or (ii) a limit order,
which results in a better execution price, but delays execution.
Traders bear waiting costs that are proportional to the amount of time
elapsed between their arrival and the completion of their transaction. Hence,
agents face a trade-off between the execution price and the time to execution.
Traders are not required to execute their trade by a fixed deadline but they
cannot choose not to trade [as in Admati and Pfleiderer (1988) for instance].
Both buyers and sellers can be of two types which differ by the magni-
tude of their waiting costs. Type P traders are relatively patient and incur
a waiting cost of 6p per unit of time. Type I traders are relatively impatient
and incur a waiting cost of 6I, where 6I > 6p > 0. The proportion of
patient traders in the population is Op (l>Op>0), and the proportion of
impatient traders is 0 = 1 - Op. These proportions remain constant over
time, and the arrival process is independent of the type distribution.
A patient trader represents, for example, a portfolio manager rebalan-
cing his portfolio due to considerations of long-term fundamental value (a
"value trader"). In contrast, arbitrageurs, technical traders, or indexers,
who seek to mimic the return on a specific stock or index, are impatient
traders. Keim and Madhavan (1995) provide evidence supporting this
interpretation. They find that indexers and technical traders are more likely
to place market orders, while value traders in general place limit orders.
Brokers executing agency trades are also impatient traders, since waiting
may result in a worse price and therefore could lead to claims of negligence.
Assumption A.I. Each trader arrives only once, submits a market or a limit
order and exits. Submitted orders cannot be canceled or modified.
Assumption A.2. Limit orders must be price improving, that is, narrow the
spread by at least one tick.
Assumption A.3. Buyers and sellers alternate with certainty, for example,
first a buyer arrives, then a seller, then a buyer, and so on. The first trader is
a buyer with probability 0.5.
1176
examples that the main implications and the economic intuitions of the
model persist when assumptions A.2 and A.3 are relaxed. We also explain
why relaxation of these assumptions increases the complexity of the
problem in a way that precludes a general analytical solution. Finally,
we discuss in Section 5 the limitations imposed by Assumption A.1,
namely that traders cannot cancel and resubmit their limit orders.
for buyers and sellers alike. An order placement strategy for trader i is a
mapping, oi(.), that assigns a j-limit order, j E {0,... ,s - 1}, to every
possible spread s E { 1,..., K}. If a trader is indifferent between two limit
orders with different prices, we assume that he submits the limit order
creating the larger spread.
1177
Lemma 1. The expected waiting time for the execution of aj-limit order is:
1
T(/) = if j 1,
1178
and that this payoff is zero for a market order. Hence, a trader submits a
j-limit order only if price improvement, jA, exceeds waiting cost, 6iT(j). A
trader submitting a limit order expects to wait at least one period before
execution. As the average duration of a period is 1, the expected waiting cost
for a trader with type i is at least i. It follows that the smallest spread trader
i can establish is the smallest integer j*, such that 7ri (ii) =jl - - > 0. We
call j the "reservation spread" of a trader with type i. Let CF(x) denote the
ceilingfunction, the smallest integer larger than or equal to x [e.g., CF(2.4) = 3,
and CF(2) = 2]. Then the reservation spread is:
1179
jp < K. (3)
1180
when the spread is small. Given that this case requires that all traders
have identical reservation spreads, we anticipate that this pattern is not
frequent. It does, however, provide a useful benchmark for the results
obtained in the heterogeneous trader case.
1181
traders never find it optimal to enter limit orders at prices in the eligible
range. In these cases, we set s, = K. This occurs, for instance, when the
cost of waiting for an impatient trader is sufficiently large.10
The cases in which sc < K and the case in which s, = K are qualitatively
similar. The primary difference is that impatient traders never find it
optimal to submit limit orders in the latter case while they do in the
former case (when the spread is K). Henceforth, we focus our attention
on the cases where Sc = K. This restriction has no significant impact on
results, but shortens the presentation.
* An impatient trader submits a market order for any spread in (1, K).
* A patient trader submits a market order when he faces a spread in
(1,nl), and submits an nh-limit order when he faces a spread
in (nh + 1,nh+l)for h- ,...,q - 1.
Thus, when a patient trader faces a spread nh+l (h > 1), he responds by
submitting a limit order which improves the spread by (nh+l - nh) ticks.
This order establishes a new spread equal to nh. This process continues
until a market order arrives.
The next two propositions provide a closed-form solution for the
expected waiting time function and for the equilibrium spreads. Let
p = - be the ratio of the proportions of patient and impatient traders.
Intuitively, when this ratio is smaller (larger) than 1, liquidity is consumed
more (less) quickly than it is supplied since impatient traders submit
market orders, and patient traders tend to submit limit orders. In equili-
brium, the expected waiting time for a limit order is a function of p.
1 * 1 h-1
T*(n) = ; T(nh)=- 1 +2 k=l
and
1' Obviously Sc = K ifj > K. It is worth stressing that this condition is sufficient, but not necess
the numerical examples below, j, is much smaller than K, but sc = K.
l We set no = 0 by convention.
1182
Recall that a limit order is never executed before limit orders that create
smaller spreads. For this reason, the choice of a spread is tantamount to
the choice of a priority level in a waiting line: the smaller is the spread
chosen by a trader, the higher is his priority in the queue of unfilled limit
orders. Accordingly, the expected waiting time function increases with the
spread. This property is consistent with evidence in Lo, McKinley, and
Zhang (2001) who find that the time to execution of limit orders increases
in the distance between the limit order price and the mid-quote.
Consider a trader facing a spread nh+l (h < q - 1). In equilibrium, he
submits an nh-limit order (Proposition 3). He could reduce his expected
time to execution by submitting an nh_ -limit order, but chooses not to.
Thus the following condition must hold:
6p
th < [T*(nh)- T*(nh_-)] + 1 vh CE 2,..., q}. (7)
Combining Equations (6) and (7), we deduce that
(8)
where the last equality follows from Proposition 4. Using Equation (8),
we derive the set of equilibrium spreads nl, n,..., nq.
ni =jp, nq = K,
nh = nl + k= 2 k h=2,..., q- 1,
1183
where
JP + k >K. (9)
k=2
de)"
We refer to Pfh = nh- nh-1 as the spread improvement, when the
spread is nh. The spread improvement is the number of ticks by which a
limit order trader improves upon (undercuts) the best quotes. Thus, it is a
measure of the aggressiveness of the submitted limit order: the larger is
'h, the more aggressive is the limit order.
Proposition 5 presents the determinants of spread improvements.
Spread improvements are larger when (i) the proportion of patient tra-
ders, Op, is large, (ii) the waiting cost, Sp, is large, and (iii) the order arrival
2.2.3 Efficiency. What is the efficient outcome in our model? The price
concession paid by liquidity demanders is earned by liquidity suppliers,
net of their waiting costs. Hence, the bid-ask spread is just a transfer
payment, and the waiting costs constitute a dead-weight loss. It follows
that the total welfare-the sum of liquidity suppliers' and liquidity
demanders' expected payoffs-is equal to the expected waiting costs
borne by liquidity suppliers. We denote this expected cost by EC. An
efficient outcome is such that traders use order placement strategies which
result in the smallest possible value for EC.
Liquidity suppliers must wait at least one period before execution and
their waiting cost, per unit of time, is at least 6p; hence EC > 6. We A.
1184
deduce that a situation in which order placement strategies are such that
EC = 6 is efficient. This can be attained under the following two condi-
tions: (i) only the patient traders submit limit orders and (ii) all limit
orders generate the competitive spread. In this case, all limit order traders
(i) have the smallest possible waiting cost per unit of time (6p) and (ii)
always wait exactly one period before execution. Thus EC -= .
In general, the efficient outcome is not obtained in equilibrium. First,
consider the homogeneous case. All the liquidity suppliers post the com-
petitive spread, but some of them are impatient. As impatient traders bear
relatively large waiting costs per unit of time (6,>6p), the equilibrium
outcome is inefficient (i.e., EC> 6). In the heterogeneous case, only
patient traders provide liquidity; however, they strategically post spreads
larger than the competitive spread. As a consequence, liquidity suppliers'
average time to execution is strictly larger than one period and, for this
reason, EC> 6. In summary, our model uncovers two possible sources of
inefficiency in a limit order market: (i) impatient traders sometimes sub-
mit limit orders and (ii) patient traders post spreads larger than the
competitive spread. Both features induce excessive waiting costs com-
pared to the efficient outcome.
12 Our measure of market resiliency is based on the inside spread. In reality, the speed at which depth at
given quotes recovers after a liquidity shock is another dimension of market resiliency [see Coppejans,
Domowitz, and Madhavan (2003) and Degryse et al. (2003)]. We cannot study this dimension, since all
orders are of the same size in our model, and we do not allow orders to queue at the same price.
1185
13 The average time elapsed until the spread reverts to its competitive level could also be used to measure
resiliency. However, the effect of increasing the order arrival rate on this time-based measure of market
resiliency is ambiguous. While it increases the number of quote updates before the spread reverts to its
former level, at the same time it reduces the average time between orders.
1186
Table 1
Parameter values for the three examples
Table 2
Equilibrium order placement strategies
1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2 0 0 1 0 1 0
3 2 2 1 0 1 0
4 2 2 3 0 3 0
5 2 2 3 0 3 0
6 2 2 3 0 5 0
7 2 2 6 0 6 0
8 2 2 6 0 7 0
9 2 2 6 0 8 0
10 2 2 9 0 9 0
11 2 2 9 0 10 0
12 2 2 9 0 11 0
13 2 2 9 0 12 0
14 2 2 13 0 13 0
15 2 2 13 0 14 0
16 2 2 13 0 15 0
17 2 2 13 0 16 0
18 2 2 13 0 17 0
19 2 2 18 0 18 0
20 2 2 18 0 19 0
2.4.1 Order
Table 2
gies for pat
derive from
arrives. Each
the equilibri
the placemen
spread is eig
spread of six
In Example
mit a limit o
than their
Thus, the i
ticks and th
(heterogene
11
30-
o example 2
25- example 3
0 20 0 0 0
E
I-
10-
_0 ~ ~
0
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ , *
.
0
0 I
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910111213141 1
0 I i I t i I i t I I I I ! ! I i t !
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Submitted Spread (j )
Figure 1
Expected waiting time
The figure reports the expected waiting times of limit orders as a function of the spread they create in
Examples 2 and 3. Expected waiting times for Example 2 are depicted by White Diamonds and for
Example 3 by Black Squares.
1188
Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
21 1/4 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
21 3116
21 1/8 o o o
21 1/16
21
20 15/16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
20 7/8
20 13/16
20 3/4 0 0o 0 0o 0o 0o 0o 0o 0o 0 0o 0 0 0 0 0 0o0 0
20 11/16
20 5/8 o o o o
20 9/16 b bb b b bbb b b b b b
20 1/2
20 7/16
20 3/8 bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb b
20 5/16 b
20 1/4
20 3/16
20 1/8 b bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb
20 1/16
20 bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb bb b b bbbb b b b bb b b b
Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
21 114 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
21 1/16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
213/16 00 0O0O0OO0000000 0 00 0 00000o oo
21 1/16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2015116 0o o o0 0
20 7/8
20 13/16
20 3/4
20 11/16
20 5/8
20 9/16
20 1/2
20 7/16
20 3/8 b
20 5/16 b b b b b b b b b b b b
20 1/4 b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b
20 3/16 bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb
20 1/8 b bb b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b b bb
201/16 bb bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb
20 bbbbbbbbbb bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb b
Figure 2
Book simulation
The figure presents the evolution of the limit order book in Examples 2 and 3 for a given sequence of 40
trader arrivals. For each period, the figure indicates the type of the trader arriving in this period. "BP" and
"BI" indicate the arrival of a "Patient Buyer" and an "Impatient Buyer" respectively. "SP" and "SI" indicate
the arrival of a "Patient Seller" and an "Impatient Seller" respectively. For each period, the figure gives the
state of the book after the order submission by the trader arriving in this period. Letter "b" (respectively 'o')
at a given price indicates the presence of a buy (respectively sell) limit order at this price.
1189
21.500
21.375
-------------------------------------------------------------- ---------- --------------
21.000
- ----------------------------------- ---------- ---------- -------
20.750
20.a25 -T- 4- - I
20.500
- --- -------- ------------ --- -------- --- ---
20.375
- --- --- -------- ------------ --- -------- ---
20.125
.......... -------- ----------------------------------------------------
19.875 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- - - - - - - - - - -
19.750 I t I I I I I I t I t I I I I I I I I I I I I t I
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141510171819202122232425252728293031323334353637383940
21.500
21.375
------ --- ,----- - ------- l) II-
21 250
-------I -- - - - - - -- ---------- --^------------- - -- - -- - -- - -- - -- - -
21.125
21.000 ?I ---rr -- - ---------- ---r------- --r- *- - --------r - --- ------- --------r- - -?-
20.875 I
20.750 I
20.625 I
- ---------- - ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -? --
20.500 . - . . . . . . . ,. -. - - . . ... - - . . - .. -.. - - .. -.. - . . - -.. - .. - -.. -.. - . . - -.. -.. - . . - -.. - .. - -.. - .. -.. - - . . -.. - .. - -.. - .. - - .. -.. - .. - -.- . 4 . . , . .
20.250 ?-
. .... . . .. . . . . . - . . .. - . . .. - . . . . - . . .. - . . .. - . . .. - . . - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - .- ..............- ..........
20.125 I
20.000
19.875
19.750 I I I I I l t I I I I I l I I l t I I I I I l I I I I I I I It i t I I 1 i
2 3 4 5 6 7 89 011 12 13 14 15 1016 7 18 19 20 21 2223 24 25 20 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 38 37 38 39 40
Figure 3
Spread evolution
The figure presents the evolution of the size of the inside spread (vertical line) and the mid-quote (dots) in
Examples 2 and 3 for the sequence of trader arrivals depicted in Figure 2.
14 If realizations for traders' types were not held constant, an additional force would make small spreads
more frequent when p > 1. In this case, the liquidity offered by the book is consumed less rapidly, since the
likelihood of a market order is smaller than when p<l. Thus, the inside spread has more time to narrow
between market order arrivals.
1190
Summary. When traders are homogeneous, any deviation from the com-
petitive spread is immediately corrected. This is not the case in general
when traders are heterogeneous. In the latter case, the market is more
resilient when p > 1 than when p < 1. Thus, although the equilibrium of
the limit order market is unique, three patterns for the dynamics of the
spread emerge: (a) strongly resilient, when traders are homogeneous, (b)
resilient, when traders are heterogeneous and patient traders dominate
(p > 1), and (c) weakly resilient, when traders are heterogeneous and
impatient traders dominate (p < 1). Market resiliency clearly depends
on the composition of the traders' population.
/0 1 0 0 O\
Op 0 0I ... 0 0
O Op 0 ... 0 0
W= : :
0 0 0 ... 0 01
\ 0 0 * p OI/
1191
*ExanVIe 2
0 Example 3
0.25
i
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05 I II - 1
0 Tl ,l, ,n,1, n,n
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Figure 4 Spreads
Spread distribution
The figure presents the stationary probab
and 3 (white bars). For each inside sprea
occurrence of this inside spread.
oq-1 oq-hoh-2
u? '0 ,and Uh 1 P I
ul :Se
T i+ i-20q1
Ei=2P +P~q
+ o_oi, n-io
I p i=2 _ i-2
I
h 2,..., q. (10)
uh h uh 1
- - ph'h and - (11)
Uhl ( 11I I61
This remark yields the following propositio
1192
16 Recall that a superscript "m" indicates variables expressed in monetary terms, rather than in number of
ticks (i.e., n' = nhA).
17 In our model, equilibrium spreads are determined by the ratio M (see Proposition 5). For this reason, the
results for an increase in the arrival rate translate immediately to results for a decline in the waiting costs
6p.
1193
Table 3
Expected dollar spreads and order arrival rates
Op
18 The condition Sc = K holds for all parameter values considered in this table. Hence, we use Proposition 5,
Lemma 2, and Equation (12) to compute the equilibrium expected spreads.
1194
3.1.2 Durations between trades and market resiliency. The order arrival
rate is one measure of market activity. Market activity can also be
measured by the average time between trades. There has been a consider-
able interest recently in modeling the time between trades. For instance,
the Autoregressive Conditional Duration approach, pioneered by Engle
and Russell (1998), postulates the expected duration between trades as a
function of pre-determined variables including past realizations of the
duration between trades. There is very little theory that endogenizes the
time between trades in limit order markets.20 This scarcity makes it
difficult to specify and interpret conditional duration models.
In our model, the time between trades is endogenous, and it depends on
the size of the spread. Let Dh denote the expected time elapsing between
two consecutive transactions, conditional on the first transaction taking
place when the spread is nh. We call this variable a conditional duration.
1 - 1h+I I -_ 4
Dh = L P for 1 < h < q; and D = " P. (13)
Hence, the conditional duration (i) increases with the size of the inside
spread, (ii) decreases with the order arrival rate, and (iii) increases in the
proportion of patient traders.
The conditional duration decreases as the order arrival rate rises, other
things being equal, and is positively related to the spread: the larger is the
19 The rates at which market and limit orders arrive are endogenous since traders optimally choose between
these two types of orders. As expected, they depend on the spread (see Propositions 1 and 2). This is the
overall order arrival rate which is exogenous in our model.
20 Easley and O'Hara (1992) endogenize the time between transactions in a dealer market. In their model,
the timing of trades is driven by the existence of new information.
1195
spread at which a trade occurs, the larger is the average time until the next
transaction. Notice that there is an interesting contrast with the findings
obtained in Easley and O'Hara (1992). In their model, the spread depends
on the time elapsed since the last transaction while in our model, the
expected time until the next transaction depends on the size of the inside
spread. This suggests that the spread should be used as an explanatory
variable in empirical models of conditional duration. Finally, the condi-
tional duration increases with the proportion of patient traders, Op. As Op
rises, the probability that a trader submits a market order declines which
delays the next transaction.
In our model, conditional duration and market resiliency are governed
by the same factors. These factors include the order arrival rate or the
proportion of patient traders. Consider an increase in the proportion of
patient traders. Other things being equal, it leads to (i) a larger condi-
tional duration (Corollary 3) and simultaneously to (ii) greater market
resiliency (Corollary 1). Similarly an increase in the order arrival rate
results in (i) a smaller conditional duration (Corollary 3) and in (ii) lower
market resiliency (Corollary 1). Consequently, our model predicts a posi-
tive association between the average time between trades, conditional on
the size of the spread, and market resiliency.
21 Several empirical papers have analyzed the relationship between the state of the book and the aggres-
siveness of incoming orders. See, for instance, Griffith et al. (2000), and Biais, Hillion, and Spatt (1995).
1196
22 A caveat is in order here since the NYSE is a hybrid market. There is a possibility that Engle and Patton's
findings are driven by the actions of NYSE specialists rather than those of limit order traders. We are not
aware of evidence on this issue from pure order-driven markets.
1197
* Limit order traders submit less aggressive orders at the end of the
day than in an earlier period. This prediction derives from Proposi-
tion 5 which establishes that spread improvements are small when
the proportion of impatient traders is large.
* As a result, market resiliency is smaller at the end of the day than in
an earlier period (see Corollary 1 and the discussion following the
corollary).
* The spread is larger at the end of the day than in an earlier period
(see Proposition 6 and the discussion in Section 2.4).
* The conditional durations between trades are smaller at the end of
the day than during the day (see Corollary 3).
23 Recent experimental findings by Bloomfield, O'Hara, and Saar (2002) show that when liquidity traders
are assigned a trading target, they switch from limit to market orders at the end of trading sessions.
1198
et al. (1999) find that the increase in the spread is driven by the order
placement decisions of limit order traders. The joint peak in spreads, and
trade rates at the end of the trading day has proved difficult to explain in
asymmetric information models. Actually, as pointed out by Foster and
Viswanathan (1993), these models predict an inverse relationship between
spreads and trading activity. Our model offers a complementary explana-
tion. At the end of the day, the proportion of impatient traders increases.
This translates into a decline in the conditional duration and thereby
more frequent trades. Patient traders exploit this impatience by bidding
less aggressively which results in larger spreads.
Pagano and Schwartz (2003) analyze the impact of the introduction of
a closing call auction in the Paris Bourse. This closing auction offers
another trading opportunity and should decrease traders' impatience
toward the end of the day. Our model predicts that this should lead to a
decline in the spread in the last half-hour of the trading day. This is
precisely what is observed by Pagano and Schwartz (2003).24 Notice
that traditional theory would rather predict the opposite, as the closing
auction is likely to draw liquidity away from the continuous market.
Finally, Tkach and Kandel (2004) show that the time to execution of
limit orders in Tel Aviv Stock Exchange declines toward the end of the
trading day, in line with our predictions.
The tick size, that is, the minimal price variation, has been reduced in
many markets in recent years. The rationale for this move was to reduce
the trading costs of investors. In this section, we examine the effect of a
1199
change in the tick size, and show that a reduction in the tick size impairs
market resiliency, and may have adverse effects on the spread.25
We assume that a change in the tick size does not affect the monetary
values of the boundaries: Am = A/ and Bm - BA, which implies that Km
is fixed as well.
To better convey the intuition, it is useful to consider the polar case in
which there is no minimum price variation, that is, A = 0. In this case,
prices and spreads can be expressed solely in monetary terms; in what
follows, we index all spreads by a superscript "m" to indicate that they are
expressed in dollars. When the tick size is zero, a trader's reservation
spread is exactly equal to his expected waiting cost until the arrival of the
next trader, i.e., j?m = (i c {P,I}). We denote by T'"') the expected
waiting time for a limit order trader who creates a spread of jm dollars.
Let
cfe Km X - 6p
p KmA- 6p (14)
Notice that 0 < pC < 1, since jl' < Km by assumptio
next proposition extends Propositions 4 and 5 to the
no mandatory minimum price variation, but p > p
25 See Seppi (1997), Harris (1998), Cordella and Foucault (1999), Goldstein and Kavajecz (2000),
Kadan (2005) for arguments in favor and against the reduction in the tick size in various mar
structures.
26 If p < p', then the spread improvements are so small that the competitive spread is never re
discuss this case later.
1200
Proposition 7 shows that when p>pc, the equilibria with and without a
minimum price variation are qualitatively similar. When A = 0, the
smallest possible spread is patient traders' per period waiting cost, i.e.,
6. In contrast, when A > 0, it is equal to this cost rounded up to the nearest
tick. Thus, not surprisingly, the competitive spread is larger when a
minimum price variation is enforced. This rounding effect propagates to
all equilibrium spreads. To make this statement formal, let n (A) denote
the hth smallest spread in the set of spreads on the equilibrium path when
the tick size is A > 0, and let qA be the number of spreads in this set. The
following holds.
Corollary 5. "Rounding effect": Suppose p > pc. In equilibrium: (I) qA < qo,
(2)n'(O) < nh(A), for h < qa, and (3)nm(0) < n (A) for qA < h < qo.
This means that the support of possible spreads when the tick size is zero is
shifted to the left compared to the support ofpossible spreads when the tick size
is strictly positive.
Corollary 6. Other things being equal, the resiliency of the limit order
market, R, is always larger when there is a minimum price variation than
in the absence of a minimum price variation. Furthermore, the resiliency of
28 Traders must improve upon prevailing quotes (Assumption A.2). However when the tick size is zero, they
can improve by an arbitrarily small amount. Proposition 7 shows that they do not take advantage of this
possibility when p > p'.
1201
Table 4
Rounding and spread improvement effects
h n,"(A = 0) n` (A= )
1 $0.05 $0.0625
2 $0.1318 $0.1875
3 $0.1988 $0.3125
4 $0.2535 $0.3750
5 $0.2983 $0.4375
6 $0.3350 NA
7 $0.3650 NA
8 $0.3896 NA
9 $0.4096 NA
10 $0.4260 NA
11 $0.4375 NA
Expected spread $0.3676 $0.3265
resiliency 3.4 x 104 0.041
1202
Table 5
The tick size minimizing the expected spread
A*
16 16
I20
1
100
I
100
1i
100
effect implies
the tick size
demonstrates
expected spre
meters are ch
the smallest
spread for lo
make large im
becomes less e
aggressive lim
ond order com
which minimi
Finally, we br
upon large sp
arbitrarily c
possible bid p
mum price v
improvement
Notice that t
very similar t
(Section 3.1).
frictional cos
between arriv
out that fac
improvement
spreads.
To sum up, reducing or even eliminating the tick size may or may not
reduce the average spread. The impact depends on the proportion of
patient traders in the market. Many empirical papers have found a decline
in the average quoted spreads following a reduction in tick size. These
papers, however, do not control for the ratio of patient to impatient
traders. In Section 3, we have argued that the proportion of patient
traders is likely to decrease over the trading day. In this case, the impact
29 This would also be the case if patient traders' waiting cost were equal to zero (6p = 0). When p < pc or
6p = 0, the equilibrium (when there is no minimum price variation) is difficult to describe formally since
traders improve upon prevailing quotes by an infinitesimal, but strictly positive, amount.
1203
of a decrease in the tick size on the quoted spread may not be uniform
throughout the trading day. Specifically, a decrease in the tick size may
increase the average spread at the end of the trading day. To the best of
our knowledge, there are no papers testing this hypothesis.
5. Robustness
30 Rosu (2004) considers a dynamic model of price formation in limit order markets. As in our model,
traders value speed of execution. Assuming that limit orders resubmission is costless and instantaneous,
he allows traders to cancel and resubmit their orders. Some of his results are qualitatively similar to ours.
In particular, he finds that resiliency increases with the proportion of patient traders.
1204
strategies affect our conclusions. They are phenomena outside the scope
of this model.
then the equilibrium when traders are not allowed to queue is an equilibrium
in this setting.
31 For instance, Biais, Hillion, and Spatt (1995) report that about 50% of new buy limit orders are placed at
the best bid price. They find a similar frequency for sell limit orders.
1205
inequality. This means that traders are less likely to queue when the order
arrival rate is small and the proportion of patient traders is large, as
conjectured. Finally, Inequality (15) is satisfied when the tick size, A, is
sufficiently small. In this case, queuing is never optimal because liquidity
providers can jump ahead of the queue at a low cost. This reasoning
suggests that the number of limit orders placed at the same price should
have decreased following tick size reductions.
32 A detailed derivation of the claims in these examples can be obtained from the authors upon request.
1206
5.3.2 Example 5-A Resilient Book (heterogenous traders, large 0p). Set:
A = 16, K = 4, Op = 0.7, A = 1, 6p = 0.01, and 56 - 0.07. In this case
traders are heterogeneous. The following order placement strategies consti-
tute an equilibrium. An impatient trader always submits a market order. A
patient trader submits (i) a 2-limit order when the spread is equal to three or
four ticks, (ii) a 1-limit order when the spread is equal to two ticks, and (iii) a
market order when the spread is equal to one tick. The resiliency of the
market is R = 0.49.
1207
6. Conclusion
1208
traders time their arrivals during the day according to market conditions,
and variations in the size of the inside spread may then trigger changes in
the intraday order arrival rate. This relationship is not captured by our
model. Finally, we have observed that the equilibrium outcome is in
general inefficient in our model. This result raises the possibility that
introducing designated intermediaries in order driven markets could be
efficiency enhancing, pointing to another interesting direction for future
work.
Appendix
Proof of Lemma 1.
Step 1. Suppose a trader (say a buyer) submits a j-limit order when the spread is s. By A.3
the following trader is a seller. We claim that at the time the j-limit order is cleared, the
spread will revert to s. We prove this claim by induction onj. If j = 1 then by A.2 the next
order is a sell market order, and the spread immediately reverts to s. Suppose now that j > 1,
and assume that our assertion is true for all k = 1,..., j - 1. By A.2, the seller must either
submit a market order or submit a k-limit order with k = 1,..., j - 1. If the seller submits a
market order, then the spread reverts s. If, on the other hand, the seller submits a k-limit
order with k c { 1,..., j- 1, then by the induction hypothesis, when that seller's k-limit
order is cleared the spread reverts to j. It follows that when the j-limit order is cleared, the
spread reverts to s as required.
Step 2. Consider a trader, say a buyer, who submits a j-limit order. The expected waiting
time of this order from this moment on is T(j). By A.2, this buyer acquires price priority (he
posts the best bid price). Suppose that the next trader (a seller by A.3) submits a k-limit order
with k { 1,..., j - 1}. When this k-limit order will be executed, the spread will revert to j
(Step 1). As traders do not cancel their orders or do not submit orders behind the best
quotes, the state of the book will then be exactly as when the buyer initially posted the j-limit
order. In particular, the buyer will have price priority. Thus, when the spread reverts to j, the
buyer's expected waiting time from that moment on is T(j) as well.
Step 3. We have explained in the text why T(1) = r. Now, consider a trader (say a buyer)
who submits a j-limit order with j > 1. The next trader (a seller) must choose among j
options. With probability ao0(), he submits a market order that clears the buyer's limit order.
In this case, the expected waiting time of the buyer is 1. With probability ak(/), the seller
submits a k-limit order (k = 1,..., j- 1). In the latter case, the original buyer's expected
waiting time is + T(k) + TU). Indeed, he has to wait (1) 1/A-for the seller to arrive, (2)
T(k)-until the seller's order is cleared and the spread reverts toj (by Step 1), and (3) another
T(j) as we are back to the original position (by Step 2). Overall the original buyer's expected
waiting time, T(j), is given by:
T(') =A c-
k=l
+ E k(') [+ T(k) + T(l) (16)
If ao(') > 0, we obtain the second part of the lemma by solving for T(j) and using t
that Yk=o cak() = 1. As for the third part of the lemma: If ao0() = 0, then the sell
submits a market order when the spread is j. Thus, the waiting time of the buyer who
the j-limit order is infinite: T(O) = +oo. U
Proof of Proposition 1. It follows immediately from the arguments preceding the prop
1209
Lemma 3. Suppose that facing a spread of size s (s E {1,... ,K - 1}), trader i (i E {P,I})
submits aj-limit order with 0 < j < s. Then, facing a spread of size s + 1, he either submits an
s-limit order or submits a j-limit order.
Proof. By assumption, trader i submits aj-limit order when he faces a spread of size s. Thus:
Now, suppose that trader i faces a spread of size s + 1. If 7sr(s) < 7ri(/), then trader i w
submit a j-limit order since 7ri,() > 7ri(k) for all k = ,..., s. If 7ri(s) > 7ri(/), then trader
submits a s-limit order since Iri(s) > 7ri () > Tri(k) for all k = ,..., s - 1.
By definition of the reservation spread, and since 6p < 6b, it follows that:
Thus, all traders submit a market order when they face a spread which is smaller than
equal to patient traders' reservation spread. This implies that T* () = T* (2) = ... T* ('P) =
Now suppose a patient trader faces a spread of sizejp + 1. Lemma 3 implies that he will eit
submit a jp-limit order or submit a market order. He obtains a larger payoff with a jp-li
order since
where the last inequality follows from the definition ofjp. Then, we deduce from Lemm
that the patient type submits limit orders for all spreads s E (jp + 1, K). As for the impat
type there are two cases:
Case 1: The impatient type submits a market order for each s E (jp + 1, K) in which case
set sc = K.
Case 2: There are spreads in (1, K) for which the impatient type submits limit orders. In
case, let Sc be the smallest spread that an impatient trader creates with a limit order. B
definition of sc, the impatient trader submits a market order when he faces a spread s E (1,
and a sc-limit order when he faces a spread of size Sc + 1. Then, we deduce from Lemma 3 th
impatient traders submit a limit order when they face a spread in (sc + 1, K) and a mar
order otherwise. Finally, it cannot be optimal for an impatient trader to submit a limit orde
which creates a spread smaller than his reservation spread. This implies Sc > j*.
Proof of Proposition 3. Since we assume that Sc = K, the impatient type always subm
market orders. From Proposition 2, a patient trader submits a market order when he fac
spread in (l,jp) and a j;-limit order when he faces a spread of size jp + 1. Repeat
application of Lemma 3 (see the proof of Proposition 2) shows the existence of spre
nl < n2 < ... < nq such that facing a spread in (nh + 1, nh + 1) the patient trader subm
an nh-limit order for h = 1,... ,q - 1. Clearly, nl =jjp and nq = K. U
Proof of Proposition 4. When they observe a spread of size n , all the traders submit a mark
order. Therefore T*(n) =-. Let h E {2,...,q}. Suppose that the posted spread is
s E (nh- + 1,nh). When he observes this spread, a patient trader submits an nh_l-li
1210
order, and an impatient trader submits a market order (Proposition 3). Therefore when the
posted spread is s E (nh-1 + 1, nh), we have ao(s) = 1- Op, a,,, (s) = 0p, and
ck(s) = 0,V k ? {O, nh-_}. Thus, Lemma 1 (second part) yields
Hence, T*(.) is constant for all s E (nh-1 + 1, nh). Using Equation (17), we obtai
where p = . Furthermore, using Equation (17) and the fact that T*(nl) = , we obtain
The claim follows now by repetitive application of Equation (18) and from the fact that
T*(nl) = . U
Proof of Corollary 1. Recall that q is the smallest integer such that nl + k=2 'k > K. It
follows that q (a) decreases with Op and bp and (b) increases with A, since 'k increases with
Op and 6p and decreases with A, for all k { 1,...,q - }. The result is then immediate. U
Proof of Lemma 2. We first show that the Markov chain given by Wis (a) irreducible and (b
a-periodic.
The Markov chain is irreducible. Observe that given any two statesjl ,j2 with 1 jl < j2 <
there is a positive probability that the chain will move from jl to j2 after a sufficiently larg
(though finite) number of transitions. This implies that any two states in the chain commu
nicate; hence, the chain is irreducible.
The Markov chain is a-periodic. Notice that Wq,q = O > 0. This means that when the chain is
in state q, there is a probability equal to Oj that it will stay in this state for the next
transitions, Vn > 1. Since state q communicates with all the other states of the chain, i
follows that no state has a period greater than 1. Thus the chain is a-periodic.
These properties imply that the Markov chain is ergodic. Hence, the induced Markov
chain has a unique stationary probability distribution of spreads (see Feller 1968). Let u
(ul,..., uq) denote the row vector of stationary probabilities. The stationary probability
distribution is obtained by solving q + 1 linear equations given by:
1211
Proof of Corollary 2. In the proof of Corollary 1, we have established that q increases with A.
Thus qxs < q\x. Using Proposition 5, we obtain
Thus, if nk(AF) < nk(Xs), then nk+l (AF) < nk+l (As) for k < qAs - 2. Now, observe that for
k = 1, we have (using Proposition 5):
n (A)= CF( .
We deduce that nl (AF) < nl (As) and conclude that nk((AF) < nk(AS) for k < qx - 1. Furth
more, nqAs (As) = nqAr (AF) = K. Consequently, nk(AF) < nqAs (AS) for qAs < k < qAF. T
proves the first part of the corollary. The second part follows from Corollary 1. U
Proof of Corollary 3. Let Nh denote the random variable describing the number of trad
arrivals between two consecutive transactions, conditional on the event that the first tr
action took place when the spread was nh. The conditional duration is:
E(N11)
Dh= h 1 l,..., q, (20)
and
Pr(Nh = h + 1) = h.
We deduce that
1212
which simplifies as
The expression for Dh follows from this equation and Equation (20). Finall
when the last transaction takes place at the largest possible spread, nq t
following this transaction remains nq. Hence, the situation is as if the last tr
place at spread, nq_1. It follows that the probability distributions of N
identical. Therefore E(Nq) = E(Nq_ ). The expression for Dq follows. The l
proposition follows directly from the expression for Dh, h < q. I
Proof of Proposition 7.
Step 1. We first derive the expected waiting time function associated with t
ment strategies described in Parts 1, 2, and 3 of the proposition. All traders s
order when they face a spread equal to n'. It follows that T* (n-) = I. Now su
posted spread is sm E (n^l, np ] with h > 2. When he observes this spread, a
submits an n _-limit order and an impatient trader submits a market or
ao(s") = 0O and ac_, (s) = Op. It follows that
which yields
Hence T*(.) is constant for all sm c (n^ 1,n ] with h > 2. Then, following the last part of
the proof of Proposition 4, it is straightforward to show that the expected waiting time
function is:
1 h-
T*(nm) = 1+2 pk V h = 2,...,qo-1.
- kl
k=l A
This proves the last part of the proposition. Observe that the last equation implies:
n nh
- T*(n)6ph
= n_-
- T*h
(n_) 6p =.. n= T* (n) p for h = 2,..., qo - 1. (24)
1213
Thus any limit order yields a negative payoff to the impatient trader. It follows that he
submits a market order (which has a zero payoff).
Now consider a patient trader who faces a spread with size j' E (ni_, n"'], with h > 2.
From Equations (26) and (27), we know that:
We deduce from Equations (28) and (29) (i) that the patient trader's be
the set {n", n7 ..., nI_l } and (ii) that he is indifferent between any sprea
is a best response to choose nh_ for the patient trader when he fa
i' E (nml , n ]. Now consider a patient trader who faces a spread
follows from Equation (28) that the patient trader cannot profitab
spread. Therefore he chooses a market order.
Step 3. Finally, we compute the expression for qo. Since n' = n'_l + 'T
get that nh = n + Eh=2 i' (0). Furthermore since nq, = K", it must
the smallest integer such that n"T + k- 2 k (O) > Km". As k(O)
qo is the smallest integer such that:
Now the smallest integer qo which satisfies Condition (30) is given by:
1214
CF('" n(
qo =) ifp 1 and
n(p) p> p, (31)
(31)
CF(KmP)+ p) if
2ph-16e
nk l(0) = nm'(0) + A
and
for 1 < k < min{qo - 2, q - 2}. Thus if nm(0) < n5m(A), then nk+l(O) < nm+l (A) for
1 < k < Min{qo - 2, qa - 2}. Now observe that for k = 1, we have (using Propositions 5
and 7):
Hence n'(O) < nm(A) since P6 < CF(P). We deduce that n'(0) < n'(A) for
k < Min{qo - 1, q - 1}. Recall that qo and qa are the smallest integers such that:
Proof of Corollary 6.
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