Time Series Analysis

Time Series: The study of data according to its time of occurance is called Time Series Data.
Years Y
Every time series is characterized by the following four features called COMPONENTS of time series. 1990 91
1 Seasonal Variation 1991 87
2 Cyclical Flacuations 1992 97
3 Irregular Variations 1993 55
4 Trend or Secular Trend 1994 80
i Method of free hand curve 1995 93
ii Method of Semi Average 1996 94
iii Method of Moving Average 1997 86
iv Method of Least Square 1998 53
1999 58

i Method of free hand curve 2000 63

Question 1: Smoth the data with the help of free hand method and estimate production for 2001, beside other trend values. 2001 69
2002 60
Year Produciton Historigram 2003 85
1991 115
145
1992 120
1993 116 140
1994 113
1995 122 135
1996 120 130
1997 127
Production

1998 132 125

1999 122 120
2000 130
2001 115
2002 110
2003
2004 105
2005
100
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Years

Question 2: Smoth the data with the help of free hand method and find trend values.

Year Produciton Historigram

1981 96
1400
1983 87
1985 91
1200
1987 102
1989 108
1000
1991 139
1993 289
Production

800
1995 307
1997
600
1999
2001
400
2003
2005
200
2007
0
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Years
 ii Method of Semi Average
Question 1: Compute Trend Values by Method of Semi Average
Case I Trend Values
Year Produciton Y Semi Average X
1993 115 -2 113.6
1994 120 -1 115.4 Y
1995 116 117.2 0 117.2 Sami Average Method Semi Avg Line
1996 113 1 119.0 135
1997 122 2 120.8 130
1998 120 3 122.6 125
1999 127 4 124.4

Production
120
2000 132 126.2 5 126.2
2001 122 6 128.0 115
2002 130 7 129.8 110
105
Question 2: Compute Trend Values by Method of Semi Average 100
Case II Trend Values 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Year Produciton Y Semi Average X Years
1981 120 -1 113.8
1982 116 116.33 0 116.3
1983 113 1 118.8
1984 122 2 121.3
1985 120 3 123.8
1986 127 126.33 4 126.3
1987 132 5 128.8

Question 3: Compute Trend Values by Method of Semi Average

Case III Trend Values Data
Year Produciton Semi Average X Year Y
1981 96 -3 50.2 1981 96
-2 1983 87
1982 87 -1 79.4 1985 91
94 0 1987 102
1983 91 1 108.6 1989 108
2 1991 139
1984 102 3 137.8 1993 289
4 1995 307
1985 108 5 167
6
1986 139 7 196.2
210.75 8
1987 289 9 225.4
10
1988 307 11 254.6
12

Question 4: Compute Trend Values by Method of Semi Average

Case IV Trend Values Data
Year Produciton Semi Average X Year Y
1981 96 -3 36.325 1981 96
-2 1983 87
1982 87 -1 74.775 1985 91
94 0 1987 102
1983 91 1 113.225 1989 108
2 1991 139
1984 102 3 151.675 1993 289
4 1995 307
1985 108 5 190.125 1997 410
6
1986 139 7 228.575
8
1987 289 9 267.025
286.25 10
1988 307 11 305.475
12
1989 410 13 343.925
 iii Method of Moving Average
Question 1: Determin the trend line by moving average method using 3 years, 5 years and 7 years moving averages.
Case I Year Orignal Y 3YMA 5YMA 7Y M A
80
Odd Year Total Average Total Average Total Average Moving Average Trand
Moving 1918 18
Average 1919 20.5 58.1 19.4 70
1920 19.6 64.3 21.4 110.1 22.0
1921 24.2 71.6 23.9 117.2 23.4 161.1 23.0 60
1922 27.8 77.1 25.7 122.6 24.5 173.3 24.8
1923 25.1 78.8 26.3 133.2 26.6 186.8 26.7 50
1924 25.9 81.2 27.1 143.0 28.6 203.2 29.0

Values
1925 30.2 90.1 30.0 151.2 30.2 214.0 30.6 40
1926 34 100.2 33.4 161.1 32.2 222.0 31.7
1927 36 105.0 35.0 171.0 34.2 237.8 34.0
30
1928 35 106.8 35.6 181.7 36.3 260.3 37.2
1929 35.8 111.7 37.2 196.1 39.2 285.7 40.8
20 3YMA
1930 40.9 125.1 41.7 215.7 43.1 312.1 44.6
5YMA
1931 48.4 144.9 48.3 241.1 48.2 324.7 46.4 7Y M A
1932 55.6 164.4 54.8 253.9 50.8 358.4 51.2 10
Orignal Y
1933 60.4 164.6 54.9 281.7 56.3
1934 48.6 177.7 59.2 0
1935 68.7 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935
Years

Question 2 Determin the trend line by moving average method using 4 years Centered and 6 years Centered moving averages.
Case II 4YCMA 6YCMA
Even Year Year Orignal Y
Centered 4YMT 8YMT 4YCMA 6YMT 12 Y M T 6YCMA
Moving 1918 18
Average
1919 20.5
82.3
1920 19.6 174.4 21.8
92.1 135.2
1921 24.2 188.8 23.6 278.3 23.2
96.7 143.1
1922 27.8 199.7 25.0 295.9 24.7
103.0 152.8
1923 25.1 212.0 26.5 320.0 26.7
109.0 167.2
1924 25.9 224.2 28.0 346.2 28.9
115.2 179.0
1925 30.2 241.3 30.2 365.2 30.4
126.1 186.2
1926 34 261.3 32.7 383.1 31.9
135.2 196.9
1927 36 276.0 34.5
140.8
1928 35

1929 35.8
 iv Method of Least Squares
Question 1: Determin the trend line by method of least squares and plot trend values on graph.
Trend Values 70
Case I Year Y X XY X2 Y2 Method of Least Squares
1918 18 -8 -144 64 324 15.46 -15 60
Odd number 1919 20.5 -7 -143.5 49 420.25 17.84 -14
of Values 1920 19.6 -6 -117.6 36 384.16 20.21 -13
50
1921 24.2 -5 -121 25 585.64 22.59 -12
1922 27.8 -4 -111.2 16 772.84 24.96 -11
1923 25.1 -3 -75.3 9 630.01 27.34 -10 40

Values
1924 25.9 -2 -51.8 4 670.81 29.72 -9
1925 30.2 -1 -30.2 1 912.04 32.09 -8 30
1926 34 0 0 0 1156 34.47 -7
1927 36 1 36 1 1296 36.85 -6
20
1928 35 2 70 4 1225 39.22 -5
Trend Values
1929 35.8 3 107.4 9 1281.64 41.60 -4
1930 40.9 4 163.6 16 1672.81 43.98 -3 10 Y
1931 48.4 5 242 25 2342.56 46.35 -2
1932 55.6 6 333.6 36 3091.36 48.73 -1 0
1933 60.4 7 422.8 49 3648.16 51.11 0 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934
1934 48.6 8 388.8 64 2361.96 53.48 1 Years
586 0 969.6 408 22775.24

34.47 0.00

Shifing of Orgion
16483.2 2.38 -8
6936 Y = 34.47 + 2.38 [ X + (-8)]
34.47 Y = 15.46 + 2.38 X

Y = 34.47 + 2.38 X
Question 2: Determin the trend line by method of least squares and plot trend values on graph.
Year X XY X2 Y2 Trend Values
Case II Y

Even 1918 18 -17 -306 289 324 14.26 80

number of 1919 20.5 -15 -307.5 225 420.25 16.86 Method of Least Squares
Values 1920 19.6 -13 -254.8 169 384.16 19.46 70
1921 24.2 -11 -266.2 121 585.64 22.06
1922 27.8 -9 -250.2 81 772.84 24.66
60
1923 25.1 -7 -175.7 49 630.01 27.27
1924 25.9 -5 -129.5 25 670.81 29.87
1925 30.2 -3 -90.6 9 912.04 32.47 50
1926 34 -1 -34 1 1156 35.07
Values

1927 36 1 36 1 1296 37.67 40

1928 35 3 105 9 1225 40.27
1929 35.8 5 179 25 1281.64 42.88 30
1930 40.9 7 286.3 49 1672.81 45.48
1931 48.4 9 435.6 81 2342.56 48.08
1932 55.6 11 611.6 121 3091.36 50.68 20
Trend Values
1933 60.4 13 785.2 169 3648.16 53.28
1934 48.6 15 729 225 2361.96 55.89 10 Y
1935 68.7 17 1167.9 289 4719.69 58.49
654.7 0 2521.1 1938 27494.93 0
1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935
36.37 0.00 Years

Shifing of Orgion
42858.7 1.30 -7
32946 Y = 36.37 + 1.3 [ X + (-7)]
36.37 Y = 27.27 + 1.3 X