CHAP2
CHAP2
1
Decision dilemma – take a lump sum
or annual installments
A suburban Chicago couple
won the Power-ball.
They had to choose
between a single lump
sum $104 million, or $198
million paid out over 25
years (or $7.92 million
per year).
The winning couple opted
for the lump sum.
Did they make the right
choice? What basis do
we make such an
economic comparison?
2
Option A Option B
(lump sum) (installment plan)
0 $104 M
1 $7.92 M
2 $7.92 M
3 $7.92 M
25 $7.92 M
3
What do we need to know?
4
End-of-period convention
0
1
0 1
5
Methods of calculating interest
6
Investment variables
P → present value
F → future value
I → total interest
i → interest rate
N → number of interest periods
n → identifier of an interest period
Bn → balance at the end of interest period n
7
Compounding process
$1,080
0 $1,166.40
$1,259.71
1
$1,000
2
3
$1,080
$1,166.40 8
$1,259.71
0 1 2
9
Compound interest formula
n = 0:P
n = 1: F1 = P(1+ i)
n = 2 : F2 = F1 (1+ i) = P(1+ i) 2
⁝
n = N : F = P(1+ i) N
11
Market value
12
Practice problem
13
Solution
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0 1
$1,210
4
?
2 3
$1,000 $1,000
$1,500
$1,100
$1,000
$1,210 $2,981
$2,100 $2,310
-$1,210 + $1,500
$1,100 $2,710
16
Solution
End of Beginning Deposit Withdraw Ending
Period balance made balance
17
Economic equivalence
18
Economic equivalence
19
Equivalence in personal finance
If you deposit P dollars today for N
periods at i, you will have F F
dollars at the end of period N.
F =P(1+i)N
0
N
P F P
20
Alternate way of defining equivalence
P
P = F(1+i)−N
0 1 2 3 4 5
22
0 1 2 3 4 5
Solution
23
At what interest rate
would these two amounts be equivalent?
$2,042
i=? $3,000
0 5
24
Equivalence between two cash flows
P F
$2,042 $2,205 $2,382 $2,572 $2,778 $3,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 26
Example
$200 V
$150
$120
$100 $100
$80
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
27
Approach
V
$200
$150
$120
$100 $100
$80
0 1 2 3 4 5
28
V3 = $511.90 + 264.46 = $776.36
V
$150
$120
$100 $100
$80
0 1 2 3 4 5
2 = 1.1N P
log 2 = N log1.1
log 2
N=
log1.1
30
= 7.27 years
Rule of 72
Approximately how
72
long it will take for N
a sum of money to interest rate (%)
double
72
=
10
= 7.2 years
31
Practice problem
You just purchased 100 shares of stock at $60
per share. You will sell when the market price
has doubled. If you expect the stock price to
increase 20% per year, how long do you expect
to wait until selling?
32
Practice problem
$1,000
$500
Given: i = 10%,
A
0 1 2 3
33
Approach
$1,000
Step 1: Select the base
period to use, say n = 2. $500
Step 2: Find the equivalent A
lump sum value at n = 2
0 1 2 3
for both A and B.
Step 3: Equate both
equivalent values and C C
solve for unknown C.
B
0 1 2 3
34
Solution
A $1,000
V2 = $500(1 + 0.10)2 + $1,000(1+0.10)-1 $500
=
$1,514.09 A
0 1 2 3
B V2 = C(1 + 0.10) + C = 2.1C
C C
To find C: B
2.1C = $1,514.09
C = $721 0 1 2 3
35
Practice problem
$1,000
$500
At what interest rate
would you be A
0 1 2 3
36
Approach
Step 1: Select the base period
to compute the equivalent $1,000
value (say, n = 3)
Step 2: Find the net worth of $500
each at n = 3. A
0 1 2 3
0 1 2 37 3
Establish equivalence at n = 3
40
Solution
$1,000,000 = P (1+0.08)44
P = $1,000,000/29.56 = $33,834
$100,000 - $33,834 = $66,166
41
Multiple payments
1 2 3 4
and $5,000 at n =4, if
your account earns
10% annual interest?
P
$3,000 $5,000
0
1 2 3 4
$25,000
$3,000 $5,000
0 0
0
1 2 3 4
+ 1 2 3 4
+ 1 2 3 4
P2
P4
P1
P1 = $25,000(P / F ,10%,1) P2 = $3,000(P / F,10%, 2) P4 = $5,000(P / F,10%, 4)
= $22,727 = $2, 479 = $3, 415
43
P = P1 + P2 + P3 = $28,622
Check
Beginning Interest Payment Ending
balance earned balance
n=0 0 0 +28,622 28,622
44
Rounding error
It should be “0.”
College fund
Suppose you make an annual contribution of $100
each year to a college education fund for a
niece. She is 4 years old now, and you will start
next year and make the last deposit when she is
18. The fund is a money market account
earning 6.5%/year. What will it be worth
immediately after the last deposit?
0 1 2 N
A A A
P
0 1 2 N
0 N
47
Equal payment series – compound amount factor
F
0 1 2 N
A A A
F
0 1 2 N
0 1 2
N
A A A
Compound amount factor
F
A(1+i)N-2
A A A
A(1+i)N-1
0 1 2 N 0 1 2 N
multiply by (1 + i):
subtract:
beginning ending
n balance deposit interest balance
0 0.00 0 0.00 0.00
1 0.00 5000 0.00 5000.00
2 5000.00 5000 300.00 10300.00
3 10300.00 5000 618.00 15918.00
4 15918.00 5000 955.08 21873.08
5 21873.08 5000 1312.38 28185.46
52
Finding an annuity value
(sinking fund factor)
F
i
A= F
0 1 2 3 (1+i) N −1
N
A=? = F( A/ F,i, N)
P
Example:
• Given: F = $5,000, N = 5 years, and i = 7%
• Find: A
• Solution: A = $5,000(A/F,7%,5) = $869.50
53
Equal payment series
(uniform series)
Find the future worth of the following cash flow,
assuming interest rate i.
$A $A $A $A $A $A $A $A
54
Custodial account
55
Custodial account cash flow
012…
18
$100 …
012…
(1+ i) −1
N
F = A
i 18
$100 …
(1.10)19 −1
F = $100 = $5115,9 See spreadsheet solution
0.10
56
Sinking fund
You are saving up money to make a down
payment of $100,000 on a house when you
graduate in 4 years. You plan to invest $A at the
end of each summer in a money market account
earning 6.5%/year. Find A.
57
Sinking fund
You are saving up money to make a down payment of
$100,000 on a house when you graduate in 4 years.
You plan to invest $A at the end of each summer in a
money market account earning 6.5%/year. Find A.
(1 + i)N – 1 (1 + 0.065)4 – 1
F=A =A = $100,000
i 0.065
4.41 A = $100,000
58
A = $100,000/4.41 = $22,690
Annuity factor
(capital recovery factor)
You want to obtain a loan of $20,000 to buy a used car.
You will pay off the loan in yearly payments over the next
5 years. The salesman quotes a 6% annual interest rate
and yearly payments of $4,878. Is $4,878 an accurate
payment for this loan?
59
Annuity factor
(equal series capital recovery factor)
(1 + i)N – 1
F=A
i
i i
A=F = P (1 + i)N (1 + i)N – 1
(1 + i)N – 1
i (1 + i)N
A=P
(1 + i)N – 1
60
A = P(A/P,i,N)
Annuity factor
(capital recovery factor)
You want to obtain a loan of $20,000 to buy a used car.
You will pay off the loan in yearly payments over the next
5 years. The salesman quotes a 6% annual interest rate
and yearly payments of $4,878. Is $4,878 an accurate
payment for this loan?
62
Deferred payments
64
Present worth
Your father is about to get downsized out of his position. He has been
with the previous company through 3 previous mergers, and is
disgusted with that nature of the business. He is considering retiring
rather than seeking a new job. What would his retirement savings
have to be worth today in order to withdraw $50,000/year for the
next 15 years? He expects to invest conservatively, earning 5% per
year during his retirement years.
(1 + i)N - 1 (1 + 0.05)15 - 1
P=A = $50,000
i (1 + i)N 0.05 (1 + 0.05)15
65
Present worth factor
Example: early savings plan – 8% interest
?
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
44
$2,000
?
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
44
66
$2,000
Option 1 – early savings plan
(1 + i)N – 1 F10 = $2,000 (F/A,8%,10)
F=A ➔
i = $28,973
?
Then use:
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
F44 = $28,973 (F/P,8%,34)
= $396,645 44
$2,000
Age 31 65
67
Option 2: Deferred Savings Plan
(1 + i)N – 1
F=A
i
0 11 12
44
$2,000
68
At what interest rate would these two
options be equivalent?
Option 1:
F44 = $2, 000(F / A,i,10)(F / P,i, 34)
Option 2:
F44 = $2, 000(F / A.i, 34)
Option 1 = Option 2
$2, 000(F / A,i,10)(F / P,i, 34) = $2, 000(F / A.i, 34)
Solve for i
69
A B C D E F
1
2 Year Option 1 Option 2
3 0
4 1 $ (2,000)
5 2 $ (2,000) Interest rate 0.08
6 3 $ (2,000)
7 4 $ (2,000) FV of Option 1 $ 396,645.95
8 5 $ (2,000)
9 6 $ (2,000) FV of Option 2 $ 317,253.34
10 7 $ (2,000)
11 8 $ (2,000) Target cell $ 79,392.61
12 9 $ (2,000)
13 10 $ (2,000)
14 11 $ (2,000)
15 12 $ (2,000)
16 13 $ (2,000)
17 14 $ (2,000)
18 15 $ (2,000)
19 16 $ (2,000)
20 17 $ (2,000)
21 18 $ (2,000)
22 19 $ (2,000)
40 37 $ (2,000)
41 38 $ (2,000)
42 39 $ (2,000)
43 40 $ (2,000)
44 41 $ (2,000)
45 42 $ (2,000)
46 43 $ (2,000)
47 44 $ (2,000)
70
Using excel’s goal seek function
71
Result
72
73
Gradient series
– Linear gradient
– Geometric gradient
74
Linear gradient series
Gradient series
present worth factor
75
Gradient series as a composite series
76
Example – present value calculation for a
gradient series
$2,000
$1,750
$1,500
$1,250
$1,000
0
1 2 3 4 5
0
1 2 3 4 5
(P/F,i,N) : P = F(1+i)−N
$1,000(P/F, 12%, 1) = $892.86
$1,250(P/F, 12%, 2) = $996.49
P =? $1,500(P/F, 12%, 3) = $1,067.67
$1,750(P/F, 12%, 4) = $1,112.16
$2,000(P/F, 12%, 5) = $1,134.85
$5,204.03
Method 2: (1 + i)N - 1
P=A
i (1 + i)N
P1 = $1,000(P/ A,12%,5)
= $3,604.80
P2 = $250(P/ G,12%,5)
= $1,599.20
P=$3,604.08+$1,599.20
=$5,204
79
Example – supper lottery
You won the lottery. Decide which option is better. 3.44 million$
paid right now or the distribution showed in the second figure below:
$3.44 million
Cash option
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 25 26
$357,000
G = $7,000
$196,000
$189,000
$175,000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 25 26
Equivalent present value of annual payment
option at 4.5%
P
F
0 1 2 3
N
A
P
81
Equivalent present value of annual payment
option at 4.5%
P
P = [$175,000 + $189,000(P/A, 4.5%, 25) +
$7,000(P/G, 4.5%, 25)](P/F, 4.5%, 1) = $3,818,363
Where:
(1 + i)N - 1
P=A
i (1 + i)N
P = F(1+i) −N 82
(P/F,i,N) :
Excel
solution
Example – linear gradient
84
Linear gradient series
$50k $52k $54k $56k $58k
Allied Signal
0 1 2 3 4 5
Raytheon
85
0 1 2 3 4 5
Composite cash flow
$0k $2k $4k $6k $8k
0 1 2 3 4 5
$50k $52k $54k $56k $58k strict linear gradient series
+
= equal payment series
$50k $50k $50k $50k $50k
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1 2 3 4 5
Gradient to equal-payment conversion
One way to answer this question is to transform your linear
gradient to a constant annual payment (annuity).
$0 $G $2G $3G $4G $A $A $A $A $A
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
strict linear gradient series equal payment series
P = G(P/G, i, N) A = P(A/P, i, N)
A = G(P/G, i, N)(A/P, i, N)
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
strict linear gradient series equal payment series
A = G(A/G,i,N)
F = A(F/A,i,N)
F = G(A/G,i,N)(F/A,i,N) = G(F/G,i,N)
(1+ i) N
− iN −1 (1+ i) N −1 G (1+ i) N −1
F =G = − N = G(F / G,i, N )
i (1+ i) N −1 i i i
Linear vs. geometric gradient
A8
A7
Cash flows on a linear gradient A A 6
A4 5
increase by a constant amount A
A 3
each interest period. A1 2
An = A1 + (n −1)G, n = 1, 2,..., n
A8
A7
A6
A5
A
A = A (1+ g) n−1 , n = 1, 2,..., n A1 A 2 A 3 4
n 1
90
Present worth factor
1 – (1 + g)N (1 + i)-N
P = A1 i≠g
i-g
N
P = A1 i=g
1+i
A8
A7
A6
A A5
A
A 1 A2 3 4
91
Example 2.19
92
Example 2.19: find P, given A1, g, i, N
– given:
g = 5%
i = 7%
N = 25 years
A1 = $50,000
– find: P
P = $ 5 0 , 0 0 0 (P / A , 7 %, 2 5 ) = $ 5 8 2 , 6 7 9
This means that the extra amount that we need to have today is:
P = $ 9 4 0 , 6 9 6 − $ 5 8 2 , 6 7 9 = $ 3 5 8,0 1 7
94
Example 2.20
You want to supplement your retirement income through IRA contributions.
You have 15 years left until retirement and you are going to make 15 equal
annual deposits into your IRA until you retire with the first deposit being
made at the end of year 1.
You need to save enough so that you can make 10 annual withdrawals that
will begin at the end of year 16. The first withdrawal will be $10,000, and
each subsequent withdrawal will increase at a rate of 4% over the previous
year's withdrawal in line with expected increase in cost-of-living. Your last
withdrawal will be at the end of year 25.
What is the amount of the equal annual deposit amount ( C) for the first 15
years? Assume the interest rate is 8% compounded annually before and after
you retire.
95
Example 2.20 - solution
Methodology 1: Establish equivalence at n= 0.
96
Example 2.20 - solution
Methodology 2: Establish equivalence at n=15.
97
Example 2.20 - solution
Methodology 2: Establish equivalence at n=15.
98
$200
Composite $150 $150 $150 $150
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
100
Unconventional equivalence calculations
Situation 2:
101
102
103
105