A

Seminar report on
Bitcoin price prediction
submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements of
the award of the degree of
Bachelor of Technology
In
Computer Engineering
By
Krishna Sharma
RTU Roll No:-20EPCCS205
under the guidance of
Dr. Kamlesh Gautam
Assistant Professor
Department of Computer Engineering

(Session 2022-23)
(Class:7CS-C)

Department of Computer Engineering,

Poornima College of Engineering
ISI-6, RIICO Institutional Area, Sitapura, Jaipur – 302022
 CANDIDATE’S DECLARATION

I hereby declare that the work which is being presented in this seminar report entitled
“Bitcoin price prediction” in the partial fulfilment for the award of the Degree of
Bachelor of Technology in Computer Engineering, submitted in the Department of
Computer Engineering, Poornima College of Engineering, Jaipur, is an authentic record
of my own work done during session 2022-23 under the supervision of Dr. Kamlesh
Gautam , Assistant Professor, Department of Computer Engineering.

I have not submitted the matter embodied in this seminar report for the award of any other
degree.

Signature
Name of Candidate: Krishna Sharma
Registration no.: PCE20CS805
RTU Roll No: 20EPCCS205
Class: 7CS-C
Dated: 30-10-2022

Place: Jaipur

SUPERVISOR’S CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that the above statement made by the candidate is correct to the best of
my knowledge.

Dated: 30-10-2022 Dr. Kamlesh Gautam

Place: Jaipur Asst. Prof, Dept. of Computer Engg.

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 DEPARTMENT CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that Krishna Sharma , 20EPCCS205 of IV year (VII Sem)

the Department of Computer Engineering, has submitted this seminar report
entitled “Bitcoin price prediction” under the supervision of Dr. Kamlesh
Gautam, Assistant Professor in department of Computer Engineering as per
the requirements of the Bachelor of Technology program of Poornima
College of Engineering, Jaipur.

Dr. Nikita Jain Ms. Sonam Gour

Dy. HOD (Academics) Coordinator -Seminar
Department of Computer Engineering

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 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I would like to convey my profound sense of reverence and admiration to my supervisor

Dr. Kamlesh Gautam, Assistant Professor, Department of Computer Engineering,
Poornima College of Engineering, for his intense concern, attention, priceless direction,
guidance and encouragement throughout this seminar research. I am grateful to Ms.
Sonam Gour, Seminar Coordinator, for her helping attitude with a keen interest in
completing this seminar.

My special heartfelt gratitude goes to Dr. Nikita Jain Deputy Head (Academics),
Department of Computer Engineering, Poornima College of Engineering, for
unvarying support, guidance and motivation during the course of this seminar research.
I am grateful to Dr. Mahesh Bundele, Director & Principal of Poornima College of
Engineering for his helping attitude with a keen interest in completing this dissertation in
time.
I extend my heartiest gratitude to all the teachers, who extended their cooperation to steer
the topic towards its successful completion. I am also thankful to non-teaching staff of
the department to support in preparation of this work.

Krishna Sharma
20EPCCS205

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 Table of Contents

Chapter No. / Heading / Title Page No.

Subheading No.

Candidate’s Declaration 2

Department Certificate 4

Acknowledgement 5

Table of Contents 6

List Of Figures 8

Abstract 9

Chapter 1 Introduction 11

1.1 General 11

1.2 Motivation 12

Chapter 2 Literature Review 13

2.1 Summary of Review Papers 13

2.2 Comparative Study 18

Chapter 3 Theoretical Aspects 19

3.1 Machine Learning 19

3.1.1 Supervised Machine Learning 19

3.1.2 Unsupervised Machine Learning 19

3.2 Fuzzy Logic 19

3.2.1 Fuzziness and Probability 20

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 3.2.2 Motivation of Fuzzy Logic 20

Chapter 4 Conclusion and Future Scope 33

4.1 Future Scope 30

4.2 Conclusion 32

References 33

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 LIST OF FIGURES

S. No. Fig. No. Description Page No.

1 3.1 Machine learning 16

2 3.2 Supervised machine learning 17

3 3.3 Machine learning algorithm 18

4 3.4 Unsupervised learning 20

5 3.5 Unsupervised machine learning 21

6 3.6 Boolean logic 23

7 3.7 Fuzzy logic system 24

8 3.8 Fuzziness 28

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 ABSTRACT

Due to its recent price explosion and breakdown, Bitcoin has recently attracted a
lot of media and public interest. In accordance, several academics have used a variety of
machine learning techniques to look at various aspects that influence the Bitcoin price, in
particular the patterns that underlie its swings. In this study, we investigate and contrast
several cutting-edge deep learning techniques for predicting Bitcoin prices, including
deep neural networks (DNN), long short term memory (LSTM) models, convolutional
neural networks, deep residual networks, and their combinations. Experimental results
revealed that while DNN-based models outperformed the other models for price ups and
downs prediction, LSTM-based models somewhat outperformed the other models for
price regression The business sector values improvements and version greatly. This
development must bring about the use of latest technology for sustainable production.
Smart production requires a international angle at the generation getting used to it if you
want to be environmentally friendly. In this context, severa AI-primarily based totally
techniques, such system studying, are presently installed withinside the enterprise to
acquire sustainable production way to huge ongoing studies withinside the subject of
synthetic intelligence (AI).

Keywords: bitcoin; blockchain; cryptocurrency; deep learning; predictive model; time

series analysis.

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 CHAPTER -1

INTRODUCTION
1.1 General
The theme of the Cybernetic Intelligence Research Group in the Department of
Cybernetics at the University of Reading is the study of intelligence and its application.
Cybernetics is defined (Wiener, 1948) as control and communication in the animal and
the machine. Cybernetic Intelligence is characterised by emphasis on sub symbolic
knowledge representation and a 'bottom up' approach to intelligent problem solving
(Arbib, 1987). This can be contrasted with a traditional artificial intelligence approach
(Newell and Simon, 1976), which emphasises symbolic knowledge representation and
explicit top down problem solving. The cybernetic approach is also typified by the use of
biologically inspired techniques.

The purpose of this paper is to review some of the recent work done by the research group
in the area of artificial life. Three projects are discussed which illustrate the benefits of
the cybernetic approach. The first is the use of real mobile robots, which are used to test
learning and co-operative tasks. The second concerns Stochastic Diffusion Processes, an
agent based technique which provides an efficient solution to dynamic best-fit search
tasks. The third is an application of artificial life for robot human interaction as a remedial
tool for children with autism. The unifying theme in these projects is communication
between different types of agent: exemplifying the multi-disciplinary, cybernetic
approach to artificial life.

1.2 Background

• Launched in 2009, Bitcoin is the world's largest cryptocurrency by market

capitalization.
• Unlike fiat currency, Bitcoin is created, distributed, traded, and stored using a
decentralized ledger system known as a blockchain.
• Bitcoin and its ledger are secured by proof-of-work (PoW) consensus, which is
also the "mining" process that introduces new bitcoins into the system.
• Bitcoin can be purchased via various cryptocurrency exchanges.

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 • Bitcoin's history as a store of value has been turbulent; it has gone through several
boom and bust cycles over its relatively short lifespan.
• As the first decentralized virtual currency to meet widespread popularity and
success, Bitcoin has inspired a host of other cryptocurrencies in its wake.

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 CHAPTER – 2

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Summary of Review Papers

2.1.1 A Comparative Study of Bitcoin Price Prediction Using Deep Learning.

Bitcoin [1] has recently received a lot of media and public attention due to its recent price
spike and crash. the daily Bitcoin exchange rate on Bitstamp (https://www.bitstamp.net/),
the longest-running cryptocurrency exchange, from November 29, 2011 to December 31,
2018. shows the price. On Bitstamp, the Bitcoin price peaked on December 16, 2017
($19,187.78) and fell to $3179.54 on December 15, 2018 (16.57% of the peak price). It
then rose again in April 2019 with volatility. Bitcoin's price appears to follow a random
walk [2], but looking at the logarithmic value of Bitcoin's price, it appears that there are
some repeating patterns in price movement. Since Bitcoin is considered a financial asset
and traded like an exchange through many cryptocurrency exchanges, many researchers
have used various analytical and experimental methods to We have studied the different
factors that influence prices and the patterns behind their fluctuations. See, for example,
the author's work on [3,4] and the references contained therein. Especially with recent
advances in machine learning, many deep learning based Bitcoin price prediction
models have been proposed.

Suhwan Ji, Jongmin Kim and Hyeonseung Im

Department of Computer Science, Kangwon National University, Chuncheon-si,
Gangwon do 24341, Korea;[email protected] (S.J.); [email protected]
(J.K.).

2.1.2 Bitcoin Price Prediction Using Machine Learning

Bitcoin uses a peer-to-peer technology to operate with no central authority or

banks.Bitcoin is open-source; its design is public, nobody owns or controls Bitcoin and
everyone can take part.Digital currency bring into use as open source software in 2009
by pseudonymous creator Satoshi Nakamoto It is a cryptocurrency, so-called because it
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uses cryptography to control the creation and transfer of money. Users send payments by
broadcasting digitally signed messages to the network. Participants known as miners
verify and timestamp transactions into a shared public database called the blockchain, for
which they are rewarded with transaction fees and newly minted bitcoins. Conventionally
"Bitcoin" capitalized refers to the Poornima College of Engineering (Seminar-7CS-
A/B/C), Department of Computer Engineering 13 technology and network whereas
"bitcoins" lowercase refers to the currency itself. Bitcoins can be obtained by mining or
in exchange for products, services, or other currencies.

Neha Mangla 1 ,Akshay Bhat 2 , Ganesh Avabratha 3, Narayana Bhat 4

Dept. of ISE, Atria Institute Of Technology,Anandnagar, Bengaluru - 560024, India

2.1.3. Bitcoin Price Prediction using Machine Learning.

Bitcoin is a crypto currency which is used worldwide for digital payment or simply for
investment purposes. Bitcoin is decentralized i.e. it is not owned by anyone. Transactions
made by Bitcoins are easy as they are not tied to any country. Investment can be done
through various marketplaces known as “bitcoin exchanges”. These allow people to
sell/buy Bitcoins using different currencies. The largest Bitcoin exchange is Mt Gox.
Bitcoins are stored in a digital wallet which is basically like a virtual bank account. The
record of all the transactions, the timestamp data is stored in a place called Blockchain.
Each record in a blockchain is called a block. Each block contains a pointer to a previous
block of data. The data on blockchain is encrypted. During transactions the user’s name
is not revealed, but only their wallet ID is made public. B. Prediction: The Bitcoin’s value
varies just like a stock albeit differently. There are a number of algorithms used on stock
market data for price prediction. However, the parameters affecting Bitcoin are different.
Therefore it is necessary to predict the value of Bitcoin so that correct investment
decisions can be made. The price of Bitcoin does not depend on the business events or
intervening government unlike stock market. Thus, to predict the value we feel it is
necessary to leverage machine learning technology to predict the price of Bitcoin.

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Siddhi Velankar*, Sakshi Valecha*, Shreya Maji*
Department of Electronics & Telecommunication, Pune Institute of Computer
Technology, Pune, Maharashtra, India.

2.1.4. Bitcoin Price Prediction and Analysis Using Deep Learning Models.

Virtual currencies become the most favorable and used for commercial enterprise
transactions all over the world [1, 2]. The popularity is due to its innovative char
acteristics such as transparency, simplicity, and increasing acceptance through the world
[3]. In the current time, bitcoin is the popular flourishing virtual currency. Reported to
the website https://bitcoin.org, Poornima College of Engineering (Seminar-7CS-A/B/C),
Department of Computer Engineering 14 viewed on April 19, 2019, the virtual currency
market value is close to 90 billions of dollars, but it varies from time to time. Bitcoin is a
peer-to-peer cryptocurrency in which all transactions are not regu lated or controlled by
any third party. Third-party intervention between customers is impossible. It is highly
volatile market price working 24/7. Market capitalization of bitcoin is increased through
time to time. In the current time, more than 71 billions of dollars publicly traded. Due to
its open-source nature, clear, transparent, simple, and time is saving which leads all virtual
currencies in the world.

Lekkala Sreekanth Reddy, Dr.P. Sriramya

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SCIENTIFIC & TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH
VOLUME 9, ISSUE 04, APRIL 2020

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 Chapter 3
Theoretical Aspects.

Blockchain is fundamentally a distributed database and open source where anyone can
change the underlying code and see the current status of an operation. It is actually a peer‐
to‐peer network. Think of it as a massive global database that runs on zillions and zillions
of computers. It doesn't require any controlling intermediaries to authenticate the
transactions. Cryptocurrency and blockchain technology are the most disruptive
technologies of the contemporary e‐era. The scope of blockchain has the potential to
disrupt key barriers to efficiency, commitment and scaling. It could record any structured
information end to end. In the case of settling trillions of real‐time transactions in banks,
blockchain extensively supports settlement systems. The aim of this chapter is to provide
concrete knowledge about cryptocurrency, the state‐of‐the‐art of cryptography,
blockchain and distributed systems, and to emphasize the synthetic sketch of
environmental issues raised by the development of new disruptive technologies. There
are key challenges to be focused on if the blockchain is to work in the environmental
sector; for example, blockchain systems, especially the use of cryptocurrencies, are
enormously energy‐intensive. Moreover, there are many natural resources and
environmental services considerations that are relevant to low‐ and middle‐income
countries while engaging these in a global framework.

3.1.Machine Learning.

Machine learning is a growing technology which enables computers to learn

automatically from past data. Machine learning uses various algorithms for building
mathematical models and making predictions using historical data or information.
Currently, it is being used for various tasks such as image recognition, speech
recognition, email filtering, Facebook auto-tagging, recommender system, and many
more.

In the real world, we are surrounded by humans who can learn everything from their
experiences with their learning capability, and we have computers or machines which
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work on our instructions. But can a machine also learn from experiences or past data like
a human does? So here comes the role of Machine Learning.

Fig 3.1 Machine Learning

Machine Learning is said as a subset of artificial intelligence that is mainly concerned

with the development of algorithms which allow a computer to learn from the data and
past experiences on their own. The term machine learning was first introduced by Arthur
Samuel in 1959. We can define it in a summarized way as:

3.1.1 Supervised Machine Learning.

Supervised learning is the types of machine learning in which machines are trained using
well "labelled" training data, and on basis of that data, machines predict the output. The
labelled data means some input data is already tagged with the correct output.

In supervised learning, the training data provided to the machines work as the supervisor
that teaches the machines to predict the output correctly. It applies the same concept as a
student learns in the supervision of the teacher.

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Supervised learning is a process of providing input data as well as correct output data to
the machine learning model. The aim of a supervised learning algorithm is to find a
mapping function to map the input variable(x) with the output variable(y).

In the real-world, supervised learning can be used for Risk Assessment, Image
classification, Fraud Detection, spam filtering, etc.

How Supervised Learning Works?

In supervised learning, models are trained using labelled dataset, where the model learns
about each type of data. Once the training process is completed, the model is tested on
the basis of test data (a subset of the training set), and then it predicts the output.

Fig 3.2 working of supervised learning

Suppose we have a dataset of different types of shapes which includes square, rectangle,
triangle, and Polygon. Now the first step is that we need to train the model for each shape.

o If the given shape has four sides, and all the sides are equal, then it will be labelled
as a Square.
o If the given shape has three sides, then it will be labelled as a triangle.

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 o If the given shape has six equal sides then it will be labelled as hexagon.

Steps Involved in Supervised Learning:

o First Determine the type of training dataset
o Collect/Gather the labelled training data.
o Split the training dataset into training dataset, test dataset, and validation
dataset.
o Determine the input features of the training dataset, which should have enough
knowledge so that the
o model can accurately predict the output.
o Determine the suitable algorithm for the model, such as support vector machine,
decision tree, etc.
o Execute the algorithm on the training dataset. Sometimes we need validation sets
as the control parameters, which are the subset of training datasets.
o Evaluate the accuracy of the model by providing the test set. If the model predicts
the correct output, which means our model is accurate.

Types of supervised Machine learning Algorithms:

Supervised learning can be further divided into two types of problems:

Fig 3.3machine learning algorithm

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1. Regression

Regression algorithms are used if there is a relationship between the input variable and
the output variable. It is used for the prediction of continuous variables, such as Weather
forecasting, Market Trends, etc. Below are some popular Regression algorithms which
come under supervised learning:

o Linear Regression
o Regression Trees
o Non-Linear Regression
o Bayesian Linear Regression
o Polynomial Regression

2. Classification

Classification algorithms are used when the output variable is categorical, which means
there are two classes such as Yes-No, Male-Female, True-false, etc.

Spam Filtering,

o Random Forest
o Decision Trees
o Logistic Regression
o Support vector Machines

Advantages of Supervised learning:

o With the help of supervised learning, the model can predict the output on the basis
of prior experiences.
o In supervised learning, we can have an exact idea about the classes of objects.
o Supervised learning model helps us to solve various real-world problems such
as fraud detection, spam filtering, etc.

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Disadvantages of supervised learning:
o Supervised learning models are not suitable for handling the complex tasks.
o Supervised learning cannot predict the correct output if the test data is different
from the training dataset.
o Training required lots of computation times.
o In supervised learning, we need enough knowledge about the classes of object.

3.1.2. Unsupervised Machine Learning.

As the name suggests, unsupervised learning is a machine learning technique in which

models are not supervised using training dataset. Instead, models itself find the hidden
patterns and insights from the given data. It can be compared to learning which takes
place in the human brain while learning new things.

Unsupervised learning cannot be directly applied to a regression or classification problem

because unlike supervised learning, we have the input data but no corresponding output
data. The goal of unsupervised learning is to find the underlying structure of dataset,
group that data according to similarities, and represent that dataset in a compressed
format.

Why use Unsupervised Learning?

Below are some main reasons which describe the importance of Unsupervised Learning:

o Unsupervised learning is helpful for finding useful insights from the data.
o Unsupervised learning is much similar as a human learns to think by their own
experiences, which makes it closer to the real AI.
o Unsupervised learning works on unlabeled and uncategorized data which make
unsupervised learning more important.

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 o In real-world, we do not always have input data with the corresponding output so
to solve such cases, we need unsupervised learning.

Working of Unsupervised Learning

Working of unsupervised learning can be understood by the below diagram:

Fig3.4 unsupervised machine learning

Here, we have taken an unlabeled input data, which means it is not categorized and
corresponding outputs are also not given. Now, this unlabeled input data is fed to the
machine learning model in order to train it. Firstly, it will interpret the raw data to find
the hidden patterns from the data and then will apply suitable algorithms such as k-means
clustering, Decision tree, etc.

Once it applies the suitable algorithm, the algorithm divides the data objects into groups
according to the similarities and difference between the objects.

Types of Unsupervised Learning Algorithm:

The unsupervised learning algorithm can be further categorized into two types of
problems:

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 Fig 3.5 unsupervised learning algorithm

o Clustering: Clustering is a method of grouping the objects into clusters such that
objects with most similarities remains into a group and has less or no similarities
with the objects of another group. Cluster analysis finds the commonalities
between the data objects and categorizes them as per the presence and absence of
those commonalities.
o Association: An association rule is an unsupervised learning method which is
used for finding the relationships between variables in the large database. It
determines the set of items that occurs together in the dataset. Association rule
makes marketing strategy more effective. Such as people who buy X item
(suppose a bread) are also tend to purchase Y (Butter/Jam) item. A typical
example of Association rule is Market Basket Analysis.

Unsupervised Learning algorithms:

Below is the list of some popular unsupervised learning algorithms:

o K-means clustering
o KNN (k-nearest neighbors)
o Hierarchal clustering
o Anomaly detection
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 o Neural Networks
o Principle Component Analysis
o Independent Component Analysis
o Apriori algorithm
o Singular value decomposition

Advantages of Unsupervised Learning

o Unsupervised learning is used for more complex tasks as compared to supervised
learning because, in unsupervised learning, we don't have labeled input data.
o Unsupervised learning is preferable as it is easy to get unlabeled data in
comparison to labeled data.

Disadvantages of Unsupervised Learning

o Unsupervised learning is intrinsically more difficult than supervised learning as it
does not have corresponding output.
o The result of the unsupervised learning algorithm might be less accurate as input
data is not labeled, and algorithms do not know the exact output in advance.

3.2 Fuzzy Logic.

The 'Fuzzy' word means the things that are not clear or are vague. Sometimes, we cannot
decide in real life that the given problem or statement is either true or false. At that time,
this concept provides many values between the true and false and gives the flexibility to
find the best solution to that problem.

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 Example of Fuzzy Logic as comparing to Boolean Logic

Fig 3.6 boolean logic

Fuzzy logic contains the multiple logical values and these values are the truth values of a
variable or problem between 0 and 1. This concept was introduced by Lofti
Zadeh in 1965 based on the Fuzzy Set Theory. This concept provides the possibilities
which are not given by computers, but similar to the range of possibilities generated by
humans.

In the Boolean system, only two possibilities (0 and 1) exist, where 1 denotes the absolute
truth value and 0 denotes the absolute false value. But in the fuzzy system, there are
multiple possibilities present between the 0 and 1, which are partially false and partially
true.

The Fuzzy logic can be implemented in systems such as micro-controllers, workstation-

based or large network-based systems for achieving the definite output. It can also be
implemented in both hardware or software.

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Characteristics of Fuzzy Logic

Following are the characteristics of fuzzy logic:

1. This concept is flexible and we can easily understand and implement it.
2. It is used for helping the minimization of the logics created by the human.
3. It is the best method for finding the solution of those problems which are suitable
for approximate or uncertain reasoning.
4. It always offers two values, which denote the two possible solutions for a problem
and statement.
5. It allows users to build or create the functions which are non-linear of arbitrary
complexity.
6. In fuzzy logic, everything is a matter of degree.
7. In the Fuzzy logic, any system which is logical can be easily fuzzified.
8. It is based on natural language processing.
9. It is also used by the quantitative analysts for improving their algorithm's
execution.
10. It also allows users to integrate with the programming.

Architecture of a Fuzzy Logic System

In the architecture of the Fuzzy Logic system, each component plays an important role.
The architecture consists of the different four components which are given below.

1. Rule Base
2. Fuzzification
3. Inference Engine
4. Defuzzification

Following diagram shows the architecture or process of a Fuzzy Logic system:

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 Fig 3.7fuzzy logic system

1. Rule Base

Rule Base is a component used for storing the set of rules and the If-Then conditions
given by the experts are used for controlling the decision-making systems. There are so
many updates that come in the Fuzzy theory recently, which offers effective methods for
designing and tuning of fuzzy controllers. These updates or developments decreases the
number of fuzzy set of rules.

2. Fuzzification

Fuzzification is a module or component for transforming the system inputs, i.e., it

converts the crisp number into fuzzy steps. The crisp numbers are those inputs which are
measured by the sensors and then fuzzification passed them into the control systems for
further processing. This component divides the input signals into following five states in
any Fuzzy Logic system:

o Large Positive (LP)

o Medium Positive (MP)
o Small (S)
o Medium Negative (MN)

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 o Large negative (LN)

3. Inference Engine

This component is a main component in any Fuzzy Logic system (FLS), because all the
information is processed in the Inference Engine. It allows users to find the matching
degree between the current fuzzy input and the rules. After the matching degree, this
system determines which rule is to be added according to the given input field. When all
rules are fired, then they are combined for developing the control actions.

4. Defuzzification

Defuzzification is a module or component, which takes the fuzzy set inputs generated by
the Inference Engine, and then transforms them into a crisp value. It is the last step in
the process of a fuzzy logic system. The crisp value is a type of value which is acceptable
by the user. Various techniques are present to do this, but the user has to select the best
one for reducing the errors.

Membership Function

The membership function is a function which represents the graph of fuzzy sets, and
allows users to quantify the linguistic term. It is a graph which is used for mapping each
element of x to the value between.

Classical and Fuzzy Set Theory

To learn about classical and Fuzzy set theory, firstly you have to know about what is set.

Set

A set is a term, which is a collection of unordered or ordered elements. Following are the
various examples of a set:

1. A set of all-natural numbers

2. A set of students in a class.
3. A set of all cities in a state.
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 4. A set of upper-case letters of the alphabet.

Types of Set:

There are following various categories of set:

1. Finite
2. Empty
3. Infinite
4. Proper
5. Universal
6. Subset
7. Singleton
8. Equivalent Set
9. Disjoint Set

Classical Set

It is a type of set which collects the distinct objects in a group. The sets with the crisp
boundaries are classical sets. In any set, each single entity is called an element or member
of that set.

Advantages of Fuzzy Logic

Fuzzy Logic has various advantages or benefits. Some of them are as follows:

1. The methodology of this concept works similarly as the human reasoning.

2. Any user can easily understand the structure of Fuzzy Logic.
3. It does not need a large memory, because the algorithms can be easily described
with fewer data.
4. It is widely used in all fields of life and easily provides effective solutions to the
problems which have high complexity.

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Disadvantages of Fuzzy Logic

Fuzzy Logic has various disadvantages or limitations. Some of them are as follows:

1. The run time of fuzzy logic systems is slow and takes a long time to produce
outputs.
2. Users can understand it easily if they are simple.
3. The possibilities produced by the fuzzy logic system are not always accurate.
4. Many researchers give various ways for solving a given statement using this
technique which leads to ambiguity.

3.2.1 Fuzziness and Probability.

Fuzziness.

The essential aspect of fuzziness concept is to appeal to the membership function of a set
instead of the classical characteristic function of a set which shows a distinction of the set
from the surrounding environment.

Here we can observe a fuzzy application of cutting principle explained in Subsection.

Another fundamental principle of self-conservation does not seem so apparent to be
adopted. This is due to the fact that the uses of fuzziness have been restricted to one
equilibrium level of intelligence and that any transition from one level to another, that
is, equilibration, has not been considered so much, except a certain aspect in learning
fuzzy automata by Wee-Fu and in connection with learning languages by Tamura-
Tanaka. On the other hand, the principle of transformation in system formation has been
the serious topics of fuzziness, as we can observe in various types of fuzzy automata.
Moreover, the principle of multitude explained in Subsection 2.2may be said to have been
considered in fuzzy environment in Bellman-Zadeh.

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 Fig 3.8 fuzziness

Probability:

Probability can be defined as a chance that an uncertain event will occur. It is the
numerical measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. The value of probability
always remains between 0 and 1 that represent ideal uncertainties.

1. 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1, where P(A) is the probability of an event A.

1. P(A) = 0, indicates total uncertainty in an event A.

1. P(A) =1, indicates total certainty in an event A.

We can find the probability of an uncertain event by using the below formula.

o P(¬A) = probability of a not happening event.

o P(¬A) + P(A) = 1.

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Conditional probability:

Conditional probability is a probability of occurring an event when another event has

already happened.

Let's suppose, we want to calculate the event A when event B has already occurred, "the
probability of A under the conditions of B", it can be written as:

Where P(A⋀B)= Joint probability of a and B

P(B)= Marginal probability of B.

If the probability of A is given and we need to find the probability of B, then it will be
given as:

It can be explained by using the below Venn diagram, where B is occurred event, so
sample space will be reduced to set B, and now we can only calculate event A when event
B is already occurred by dividing the probability of P(A⋀B) by P( B ).

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 Chapter 4

Conclusion and Future Scope

4.1 Future Scope.

It will be imperative for the investors to focus closely on several areas in the ecosystem
of Bitcoin at present.

Right now, we can define a cryptocurrency to be somewhere between a medium for day-
to-day transactions and a store of value.

Some nations including Japan have accepted Bitcoin to be a legitimate form of payment.

In spite of that, people have become interested in investing in Bitcoin for making a profit
given that its price is quite volatile right now.

However, there have been issues with security and scaling right now.

According to Chakib Bouda who happens to be the Rambus CEO, security has been the
primary setback for all the cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin over the last few years.

Here, we like to mention that Bitcoin worth millions of dollars has been stolen by hackers
from exchanges in the past.

It will be imperative for the blockchain of Bitcoin to take care of numerous transactions
within a short period in order to be considered a worthwhile form of payment or
investment asset.

Lots of scale in the operations of Bitcoin has been promised by a number of technologies
out there including Lightning Network.

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4.2 Conclusion.

Bitcoin is the most popular decentralized way of virtual currency which has a great role
in the free market economy and avoids the intermediary of another third party between
customers. The main objective of our study is to forecast the bitcoin price with improved
efficiency using deep learning models and minimizing the risks for the investors as well
as policy-makers. We have implemented two deep learning techniques such as LSTM and
GRU as prediction models.

The study reveals that the GRU model is the better mechanism for time series
cryptocurrency price prediction The Cybernetics Approach to Artificial Intelligence and
Analysis Using Deep Learning Models 639 Fig. 6 Actual and predicted bitcoin price in
terms of USD obtained using LSTM model and takes lower compilation time. LSTM and
GRU models are more capable of recognizing long-term dependencies. In this study, we
have only compared to basic deep learning-based models, i.e., LSTM and GRU.

However, it needs to investigate further to enhance the accuracy of the deep learning-
based prediction models by considering different parameters in addition to the previous
one. Features such as political system, public relations, and market policy of a country
can affect and determine the price volatility of cryptocurrency.

In our study, we have not considered other cryptocurrencies such as ripple, ethereum, lite
coin, and others.We will enhance the model by applying on these cryptocurrencies so the
model becomes a stable one. Fuzzification can also be incorporated at the input layer by
considering the degree of participation of each of the features in the prediction.

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 References

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