Deltares Sinking-Cities
Deltares Sinking-Cities
Deltares Sinking-Cities
In many coastal and delta cities land subsidence exceeds absolute sea level rise up to a factor
of ten. Without action, parts of Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City, Bangkok and numerous other
coastal cities will sink below sea level. Increased flooding and other widespread impacts of
land subsidence result in damage totalling billions of dollars per year. A major cause of severe
land subsidence is excessive groundwater extraction due to rapid urbanization and population
growth. A major rethink is needed to deal with the ‘hidden’ but urgent threat of subsidence.
Deltares presents a comprehensive approach to address land subsidence from the perspective
of more sustainable and resilient urban development.
There is abundant evidence that land subsidence detrimental impacts will increase in the near future,
causes major problems worldwide: making it necessary to address subsidence related
• In many coastal megacities around the world land problems now.
subsidence increases flood vulnerability (frequency, • The impacts of subsidence are further exacerbated
inundation depth and duration of floods), with floods by extreme weather events (short term) and rising
causing major economic damage and loss of lives. sea levels (long term).
• Land subsidence results in significant economic • Subsidence is an issue that involves many policy
losses in the form of structural damage and high fields, complex technical aspects and governance
maintenance costs. This effects roads and trans- embedment. There is a need for an integrated
portation networks, hydraulic infrastructure - such approach in order to manage subsidence and to
as river embankments, sluice gates, flood barriers develop appropriate strategies and measures that
and pumping stations -, sewage systems, buildings are effective and efficient on both the short and long
and foundations. The total damage worldwide is term. Urban (ground)water management, adaptive
estimated at billions of dollars annually. flood risk management and related spatial planning
• Because of ongoing urbanization and population strategies are just examples of the options available.
growth in delta areas, in particular in coastal mega- The figure below illustrates the current subsidence
cities, there is, and will be, more economic develop- problems related to socio-economic development and
ment in subsidence-prone areas. Consequently, climate change.
Subsidence Causes
6 - 100 mm/year • Groundwater extraction
• Oil, gas, coal mining
• Tectonics
Current global mean absolute sea level rise is around observed subsidence rates in coastal megacities are in
3 mm/year and projections until 2100 based on IPCC the range of 6-100 mm/year and projections till 2025
scenarios expect a global mean absolute sea level expect similar subsidence rates, depending on future
rise in a range of 3-10 mm/year. However current measures. This is illustrated in figure 2.
Year
-1
Absolute SLR
Bangkok
-3 West Netherlands
Tokyo
-4
-5
Figure 2. Global sea level rise (SLR) and average land subsidence for several coastal cities (please note that subsidence
can differ considerably within a city area, depending on groundwater level and subsurface characteristics)
2
An integrated approach towards solutions - Sinking cities
Monitoring
To determine land subsidence rates accurate measuring techniques are required. These are also essential to
validate subsidence prediction models. Ongoing subsidence monitoring provides the necessary insight in minor to
very significant changes in the topography of the urban area. This could be used for a so-called “dynamic Digital
Elevation Model (DEM)“. This is not just a static, one-time only recording of the local topography (preferably high
resolution) in a DEM, but an elevation model that can be corrected and updated from time to time, and used in
hydraulic models for flood prediction and urban water management.
Following early work with systematic optical leveling, nowadays GPS surveys, LIDAR and INSAR remote sensing
techniques are deployed with impressive results. In contrast to surveys, LIDAR and INSAR images give a spatially
resolved subsidence signal. INSAR images date back to the nineties and can now be used to establish subsidence
since. Application of this technique is for the moment limited to the urban environment.
Periodic and systematic surveys remain essential for ground truthing of remote sensing derived subsidence rates
and for validation of subsidence prediction models.
Causes
In most of the large delta cities, severe land subsidence Figure 3. Cumulative land subsidence over the period
is mainly caused by extraction of groundwater 1974 – 2010 in Jakarta, Indonesia (Deltares, 2011)
(Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City, Bangkok, Dhaka, Shanghai
and Tokyo). Rapidly expanding urban areas require groundwater levels to fall by 2-3 meters per year.
huge amounts of water for domestic and industrial Moreover in many developing cities, multiple large
water supply. This often leads to over-exploitation construction activities require site dewatering for
of groundwater resources, especially when surface foundation excavations. This causes lowering of the
waters are seriously polluted (Jakarta, Dhaka). In groundwater level as well, resulting in soil compression
Dhaka continuous large scale extractions cause and land subsidence.
3
Sinking cities - An integrated approach towards solutions
0 -20
Observed head
Simulated head 0
-1
20
-2
Subsidence (mm)
40
Head (m)
-3 60
80
-4
100
Figure 4. Distinct relation
-5 between falling groundwater
120
level (head) and subsidence
Subsidence (mm)
-6 140 in Ho Chi Minh City (Deltares,
Jul97 Jan00 Jul02 Jan05 Jul07 Jan10 2013)
Date
Studies in many cities have revealed a distinct relation New Orleans (USA) is a prominent example of a city
between falling groundwater levels and subsidence. where shallow drainage causes subsidence. After
The resulting spatial pattern of subsidence and its draining the organic rich soils, they start to oxidize
progress over time, is strongly related to the local adding to the overall subsidence rate of 6 mm/year.
composition of the subsurface and the number and This process will go on as long as organic material
location of groundwater wells. is available and it contributes to the sinking of the
already low lying coastal city.
Year
4
An integrated approach towards solutions - Sinking cities
Impacts
5
Sinking cities - An integrated approach towards solutions
In the Greater Jakarta area, metropolitan authorities In New Orleans and the Mississippi delta there is as
and technical agencies are advocating the reduction yet no coordinated strategy on mitigating subsidence.
of groundwater extraction in vulnerable areas by The extraction of oil and gas is of great economic
completely phasing out the use of groundwater and importance for the region and will be stimulated,
taxing groundwater consumption. This would include rather than limited. The debate on groundwater
the development of alternative water supply for large use in New Orleans has only recently started, as its
industrial users or relocation of large groundwater contribution to subsidence is so far unknown. The
users, outside the ‘critical zones’. The number of recently published water management strategy for
‘unregistered’ users is still a problem. Ongoing New Orleans, however, suggests raising water levels
economic development and city expansion, lead to the in areas with organic rich soils, reducing oxidation
filling of low-lying and flood prone lands with mineral of organic matter and mitigating subsidence. The
6
An integrated approach towards solutions - Sinking cities
Year
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
0
-10
-20
-1 Cumulative
land subsidence
-2 (m)
-3
-4
-5
Figure 6. Land subsidence and groundwater level in Tokyo area (Kaneko & Toyota, 2011)
Mississippi delta is starved of sediment because subsidence, provided that average yearly pumping
of constructions of dams and erosion-prevention rates are in balance with the average yearly recharge.
measures upstream in the catchment. In the Coastal
Masterplan for the Mississippi Delta plans are included In Dhaka, increasing problems with flooding and
to reintroduce sediment-loaded floodwaters to the water supply are resulting in more attention to
delta once more. excessive groundwater extraction and subsidence.
In this rapidly expanding city many areas are
In Tokyo, after taking regulatory measures on subsidence-prone but there is currently a lack of data
restriction of groundwater use in the early sixties, the on subsidence and its impacts. At present 87% of
groundwater levels increased again and after around the supplied water is from ground water extraction
10 years the subsidence was stopped (see figure 5). . and it has been acknowledged that the focus has to
be changed to using surface water instead. However,
With increasing insight in the relationship between treating surface water is much more technically
groundwater extraction and land subsidence, complex and expensive than using groundwater, also
techniques were developed in Shanghai to restore because the large rivers nearest to Dhaka city, are
groundwater levels with active or passive recharge. polluted among others by the economically important
Although this reduced the further lowering of textile industry.
groundwater tables and limited subsidence, it did
not solve immediate problems, notably the effect of
subsidence on infrastructure, roads and buildings.
Further developments in Shanghai have shown that,
with active and substantial recharge, sustainable
groundwater use is achievable, without severe
Especially a flood event can lead to more attention for subsidence. This happened for example in November
2007 when the northern part of Jakarta, which is heavily subsided and below sea level, was flooded by the sea
during an extremely high tide. For a long time, land subsidence was not really seen as one of the root causes of
flooding. Nowadays, there is increasing awareness that land subsidence has to be integrated into long-term flood
management and mitigation strategies.
7
Sinking cities - An integrated approach towards solutions
8
An integrated approach towards solutions - Sinking cities
Deltares has developed and applied an Integrated Assessment Framework addressing subsidence, based on
the DPSIR approach combined with a Layer model for spatial development (DPSIR is an abbreviation for Driving
forces, Pressures, State, Impacts and Responses). The DPSIR aspects are addressing the cause-effect-response
chain, and through the Layer model this is elaborated for the Occupation layer (land and water use), Network
layer (infrastructure) and Base layer (natural resources subsurface). Moreover governance aspects are assessed
throughout in this framework. This approach is sufficiently generic to assess any subsidence case and to support
the development of appropriate response strategies and measures on the short and long term. It involves the
following four steps
9
Sinking cities - An integrated approach towards solutions
In the framework of an integrated approach 10 key issues and possible solutions are presented below:
1
Restriction of groundwater extraction
This measure is very important in most cases to counteract human induced subsidence.
In vulnerable areas extraction of groundwater should be reduced or completely phased out.
The following regulatory measures can be considered:
• Appropriate legislation and consistent implementation and enforcement of regulations
• Designation of groundwater regions and critical zones
• Restricted licensing and compliance checking for groundwater well drilling
• Universal groundwater use metering and charges for groundwater use
2
Natural and artificial recharge of aquifers
When addressed consistently and effectively, the reduction of groundwater mining can
eliminate one of the primary causes of land subsidence. However, the prolonged effects of
settlement, possibly taking up to 10 years, are not immediately solved. Natural and/or
controlled groundwater recharge may be applied to speed up recovery, as well as controlled
aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) as currently being developed and implemented in
Shanghai and Bangkok.
3
Development of alternative water supply (instead of groundwater)
In order to fulfill the increasing (urban) water demand, an alternative water supply for
industry and domestic users is required. This process should include water demand
assessments (water footprint) and cost/benefit assessments. Addressing and reducing
surface water pollution is vital, to develop a sustainable alternative water supply.
4
Integrated (urban) flood water management
Improved groundwater management and subsidence studies should be part of an integrated
urban water (resources) management strategy including the whole water-subsurface
system. Water resources management should be linked to flood mitigation. Ultimately, land
subsidence is intricately linked to integrated land and water management, including surface
as well as subsurface resources and constraints.
5
Improving governance and decision-making
In many cases governance is inadequate to address subsidence in an integrated multi-
sectoral approach and to develop sustainable short and long term solutions. This involves
(public) awareness, encouraging (public) participation, cooperation and coordination
between stakeholders at different scales and levels, and also enabling good decision-making
supported by decision support models and tools.
10
An integrated approach towards solutions - Sinking cities
6
Decision support models and tools
Development of models and tools are important to support good decision-making. This
involves among others analysis of the relationship between groundwater level and
subsidence, development of modeling and forecasting capabilities by development and
implementation of an integrated groundwater–subsidence monitoring and analytical model.
Moreover, it is essential that local agencies have the expertise and tools to conduct studies,
and are engaged in ongoing capacity building, training and knowledge exchange.
7
Appropriate monitoring and database system
Ongoing studies show that the dependence on reliable ground truth data of observed
subsidence is an alarming ‘Achilles heel’ in the battle against subsidence and related flood
risk. Therefore, it is necessary to develop and maintain geodetic monitoring networks
throughout the metropolitan areas, with stable, precisely calibrated benchmarks levels and
periodic leveling surveys, in order to build a good database with long time measurements of
subsidence.
8
Integrating geotechnical aspects in planning and design of buildings
and infrastructure
In the planning and design of (heavy) buildings and road infrastructure, geotechnical
research and modelling of the subsoil should be taken into account in order to avoid
subsidence problems including differential settlements, in the short or long term. This will
save considerable damage and high maintenance costs of infrastructure and buildings
(foundations). During underground construction activities (deep parking lots, metro-
stations, tunneling), the effects of de-watering should be minimized and, if necessary
monitored and/or mitigated.
9
Asset management, financing and public-private-partnerships (PPP)
To minimize damage caused by subsidence, the main financial risks associated with
investments and maintenance of assets (buildings, infrastructure) should be assessed. This
will lead to improved design options, programming and prioritization of investments, making
use of Real Options Theory and Asset Management. This involves determining performance
indicators, functional specifications, risk mitigation measures and bonus/malus in
(innovative) contracts. Moreover PPP and Private Financing should be explored building on
sustainable business models.
10
Exchange of knowledge and best practices
Through organization of international conferences, workshops, expert meetings and courses
knowledge and best practices can be exchanged to extend the common knowledge base
efficiently and effectively. This can be further supported by development of collaborative
research projects preferably in the framework of international (research) networks and
initiatives such as the UNESCO, CCOP and the Delta Alliance.
11
Sinking cities - An integrated approach towards solutions
Bangkok
• InSAR time series analysis of land subsidence in Bangkok, Thailand, Anuphao Aobpaet et al, International
Journal of Remote Sensing, 2012
Dhaka
• GPS Velocities and Structures across the Burma Accretionary Prisim and Shillong Anticline in Bangladesh
M.S. Steckler et al, 2012
Jakarta
• Jakarta Coastal Defence Strategy (JCDS) study, several reports a.o. Activity Report: Land subsidence and
adaptation / mitigation strategies, JCDS Bridging Phase, Rien Dam, Deltares, 2012
Manila
• Investigating ground deformation and subsidence in northern Metro Manila, Philippines using Persistent
Scatterer Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PSInSAR), R.C. Eco et al, American Geophysical Union, Fall
Meeting, 2011
Netherlands
• Shallow subsidence in th Dutch wetlands estimated by satellite radar interferometry, Miguel Caro Cuenca et al,
Delft University of Technology, 2010
New Orleans
• The role of deep processes in late 20th century subsidence of New Orleans and coastal areas of southern
Louisiana and Mississippi. Journal of Geophysical Research 116, R.K. Dokka, 2011
Shanghai
• Regional land subsidence simulation in Su-Xi-Chang area and Shanghai City, China, Xiaoqing Shi et al, 2008
Tokyo
• Long-Term Urbanization and Land Subsidence in Asian Megacities: An Indicators System Approach, Shinji
Kaneko and Tomoyo Toyota, In Groundwater and Subsurface Environments: Human Impacts in Asian Coastal
Cities, 2011