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Ny DPR Decision Sheet

The New York City Department of Parks and Recreation is often blamed for failing to properly oversee capital construction projects in a timely and cost-effective manner. While DPR has knowledgeable staff and uses project management techniques, their projects regularly finish late and over budget due to an optimistic bias known as the "planning fallacy". To overcome this, the document recommends that DPR take an objective, outside view of projects by analyzing historical data from similar past projects to inform timelines and budgets going forward. This will help avoid unrealistic optimism and prevent future projects from falling victim to the same cognitive biases that have caused delays and cost overruns.

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ADITYAN V 2228301
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53 views3 pages

Ny DPR Decision Sheet

The New York City Department of Parks and Recreation is often blamed for failing to properly oversee capital construction projects in a timely and cost-effective manner. While DPR has knowledgeable staff and uses project management techniques, their projects regularly finish late and over budget due to an optimistic bias known as the "planning fallacy". To overcome this, the document recommends that DPR take an objective, outside view of projects by analyzing historical data from similar past projects to inform timelines and budgets going forward. This will help avoid unrealistic optimism and prevent future projects from falling victim to the same cognitive biases that have caused delays and cost overruns.

Uploaded by

ADITYAN V 2228301
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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DECISION SHEET

-Mathiyarasu. N
(2228333)

Date: Jan 11, 2013


Case Facts:
● Based on the audit conducted by John C. Lin, New York City’s
controller on Jan 11, 2013., he concluded that New York City
Department of Parks and Recreation (DPR) is not working
properly, as they are not overviewing the capital construction
projects in a timely and cost-effective manner.
● DPR is responsible for more than 1700 city parks and
recreational facilities. They had control over 29098 acres of
parks, beaches, playground et., Also they oversaw activities
supporting physical fitness, environmental education and
performing arts.
● Even though DPR had a high level of knowledge and good use
of project management techniques, their projects were delivered
late, over budget, and of low scope. This was caused due to
cognitive biases such as overconfidence and wishful thinking,
which is called a planning fallacy.
● One of the ways to overcome this planning fallacy is to take an
outside view, which is focused on the project as a member of a
class of projects, and attempt to estimate the performance of the
project by assessing its similarity to other members of that
particular class.
● According to the data, we can understand that the complete data
of projects is “long after the scheduled completion date in most
of the cases”. And the budget has also gone a bit higher.
Problem Statement:
How can DPR overcome its planning fallacy by taking an objective
outside perspective in order to execute projects on time and under
budget, given that DPR is blamed for not supervising capital
construction projects?

Causes of the problem:

● Optimistic bias
● Rely only on the inside view
● Late project delivery
● Exceeding the proposed budget

Criteria:

● Time efficient.

● On-time completion of project

● Within the Budget.

● High Scope.

Alternatives:
● To forecast project timescales in the future, use data from
completed projects.
● Utilize statistical information
● Tendency to see the worst in situations or anticipate the worst.
● Having another independent third party review the plans
● Educating the team about the planning fallacy

Analysis of Alternatives:
● By analysing historical data, we can make better decisions.
Since this strategy makes it simple to find the problems. This
approach can also help us undo our previous mistakes and make
wiser decisions.
● The two most prevalent positive fallacies, wishful thinking and
overconfidence, will suffer if one is pessimistic.
● The participation, openness, and suggestions of unbiased
individuals will be beneficial to comprehend the project
management's shortcomings.

Recommendation:
I believe that using historical facts to inform future judgments can
help people avoid the planning fallacy.

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