S5 Math (The Binomial Distribution)

THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
 This is a special example of a discrete probability distribution.

 The binomial distribution arises out of a binomial experiment.
Properties of a binomial experiment
(i) The experiment has got a repeated number of trials n.
(ii) Each trial has two possible outcomes i.e. “success” and “failure”.
(iii)The trials are independent.
(iv) The probability of success, p is a constant. I.e. it’s the same for each
trial.
NOTE;
 For a random variable X (number of successes) from a binomial
experiment with n trials, probability of success,𝑝 and probability of
failure q, we can summarize its distribution as X~B(𝑛, 𝑝) where 𝑛 + 𝑝 = 1.
 The symbol ‘ ~ ’ is pronounced as “follows”.
Formula for binomial distribution
If X~B(𝑛, 𝑝), then the probability of obtaining x successes written as 𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) is
given by 𝑃(X = 𝑥) = (𝑛𝑥)𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥 . Where (𝑛𝑥) is n combination x which can also be
written as 𝑛∁𝑥 .
The probability distribution of a binomial distribution is
𝑛
( ) 𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥 ; 𝑥 = 0,1,2, … , 𝑛
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑥) = { 𝑥
0 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑤𝑖𝑠𝑒
NOTE;
 Sometimes 𝑃(X = 𝑟) = (𝑛𝑟)𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑟 is used instead of 𝑃(X = 𝑥) = (𝑛𝑥)𝑝 𝑥 𝑞 𝑛−𝑥 where
r is number of successes.
 For 𝑛 > 20, we use normal approximation to binomial( to be discussed later)
instead of binomial distribution.
 Where the values of 𝑝 and n exactly available in mathematical tables for
binomial distribution, the individual or cumulative probabilities may be read
directly from tables.
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 From cumulative binomial distribution tables, the 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 𝑟) are obtained
directly but 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 𝑟) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 𝑟 + 1) which can be used to obtain
probabilities below (or up to) a certain value.
 In the mathematical tables for binomial, the 𝑝 given is ≤ 0.5 and therefore
for case where 𝑝 is >0.5 and the 𝑞 value is instead the one in the table as an x
value (𝑝-value), then we use the fact that for 𝑛 trials, 𝑟 successes imply (n-𝑟 )
failures.
Example1
Given that X~B(6,0.4). Find;
(i) 𝑃(X = 3) (ii) 𝑃(X > 4) (iii) 𝑃(X ≥ 4) (iv) 𝑃(X < 2) (v) 𝑃(1 < X < 5)
(vi) 𝑃(1 < X ≤ 5) (vii) 𝑃(2 ≤ X ≤ 4) (ix) 𝑃(X > 1) (x) 𝑃(X ≤ 5).
Example2
Find the probability of obtaining exactly two 4’s when a fair die is tossed five
times.
Example3
A multiple-choice quiz has 15 questions, each with 4 answers of which only one
is the correct answer. Determine the probability that sheer guesswork yields;
(i) Exactly five correct answers
(ii) At least 3 correct answers
(iii) Five incorrect answers.
Example4
At a supermarket, 65% of the customers pay by a credit card. Find the
probability that in a randomly selected sample of 8 customers,
(i) Exactly 5 pay by credit card.
(ii) At least 2 pay by credit card
(iii) At most two pay by credit card
(iv) Less than 7 pay by credit card.
2
Example4
2
Kenny plays 8 chess games. The probability of winning a game is .find the
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probability that she losses;

(i) Exactly 5 games
(ii) More than 6 games
(iii) Less than 6 games
(iv) Between 2 and 6 games
(v) Between 2 and4 games inclusive.
Example5
In a family, the probability of having a girl child is 0.62. If there are five children
in the family, determine the probability that they are all girls.
Example6
Musa plays 12 games and the probability of winning a game is 0.65. Find the
probability that he wins;
(i) Exactly 8 games
(ii) At least 9 games
(iii) More than 10 games
(iv) At most 4 games.
Example 7
A box contains a large number of bulbs. The probability that a bulb is defective
is 0.1. Find the least number of bulbs that must be picked so that the
probability that there is at least one defective bulb among them is greater than
0.95%.
EXPECTATION AND VARIANCE
EXPECTATION (mean)
If a random variable X is such that X~B(𝑛, 𝑝), then
E(X) = ∑ 𝑥P(X = 𝑥) = 𝑛𝑝
𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑥
 E(X) = μ = 𝑛𝑝.
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VARIANCE
Var(X) = 𝜎 2 = 𝑛𝑝𝑞
 Standard deviation,𝑆. 𝐷 = 𝜎 = √𝑛𝑝𝑞
Example1
A box contains 12pens and the chance of a pen being defective is 0.40. Determine
the mean and variance for the number of defective pens in the box.
Example2
10% of machines from a certain factory are faulty. If a sample of 25 machines
from the factory are chosen at random, find the expected number of faulty
machines and the standard deviation.
Example3
Given that X~B(𝑛, 𝑝) with mean 5 and standard deviation 2, find the values of 𝑛
and 𝑝.
Example4
15
Given that X~B(𝑛, 𝑝) and variance , determine the possible values of 𝑝.
8
THE MODE (the most likely value to occur)
The mode is the value of x that is most likely to occur and therefore it’s the value
of x with the highest probability. However working out probabilities for all x
values could be tedious and therefore to determine mode for binomial
distribution
We simply calculate the mean and obtain probabilities for the values around it.
The one with the highest probability will always be the mode
Note;
If the mean is a whole number, its probability must also be computed together
with the probabilities of the other two values around it. Then of the three values,
the mode will be the one with the highest probability.
4
Example1
The probability that a student gets a distinction in a mathematics examination
is 0.45. In a randomly selected sample of 12 students who did the examination,
what is the most likely number that got a distinctions?
Example 2
The probability that an apple picked at random from the sack is rotten is 0.15.
What is the most likely number of rotten apples in a sack containing 15 apples?
Example3
A coin is biased such that the tail is twice as likely to occur as a head when
tossed. If the coin is tossed 14 times, find the modal number of tails to occur.

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THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

 This is a special example of a discrete probability distribution.

probability that she losses;

THE MODE (the most likely value to occur)

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