THE ENERGY INDUSTRY TIMES - OCTOBER 2020

Industry Perspective 13

A random walk through the

energy transition
A number of oil and
gas majors are now
S everal oil and gas majors have
made clear their plans to shift
strategic focus. Just recently
BP, for example, in the face of a
massive fall in oil prices, said it will
sources.
The challenge, of course, is the
formidable reality of global energy
mathematics. The numbers are so
high, that no matter what the rate of
Again, as is being applied for
LNG capital assets, wind farms
have already begun successfully
adopting prescriptive maintenance
solutions, which provide asset
key area. Energy is consumed inef-
ficiently in the conversion of hydro-
carbons, synthesis of chemicals and
the supply chain. Technology will
play a key role in helping the indus-
grappling with making invest tens of billions of dollars over adoption of renewable energy health alerts to maximise the avail- try navigate a drive towards carbon
the next decade to meet its target of sources, hydrocarbons will remain a ability and utilisation of these large neutrality. In addition to improving
a significant shift into becoming one of the world’s largest crucial element of the world energy assets, which have not yet estab- energy efficiency, optimisation
renewables. renewable power generators and
achieve net-zero in its operations by
picture for decades.
So how can technology help adapt
lished a long-term reliability and
maintainability record. This ad-
technologies can contribute to in-
creasing the production efficiency
Aspen Technology’s 2050.
But the energy transition will be
hydrocarbon use to achieve better
sustainability results? Let’s look at
vanced digitalisation technology
will be crucial in monitoring the
of oil and chemical operations. Both
digital twin monitoring systems and
Ron Beck discusses complicated for these companies to
navigate. There are many factors at
a few levers the industry has and
the key role technology will play.
health of equipment which is inher-
ently installed remotely, under envi-
dynamic optimisation solutions can
together save 5-15 per cent energy
the technologies that play that make this more complex Natural gas is emerging as an im- ronmental stresses, and requires use, reducing carbon emissions a
than it may appear. So how to rise portant future energy source, often maximum uptime to be reliable in proportional amount.
will help in what will above the crowd in these next few seen as a ‘bridge fuel” to reduce the energy mix. Another great technology weapon
years? Technology is proving to be a carbon. To make natural gas trans- An interesting analysis compiled is utility supply optimisation. As
be a difficult transition valuable tool in navigating and thriv- portable, though, requires the ener- by global political thinker Peter power plants looks to minimise car-
ing during the energy transition and gy-intensive and complicated lique- Zeihan, looks at the distribution of bon emissions, the choices between
for them to make. will help companies be leaders. faction (LNG) process. Technology land across the globe that is suited oil, gas, biofuels, and renewables
Global energy demand will contin- is playing a key role in improving for utility-scale renewable electrici- can be made on a sophisticated ba-
ue to rise, according to most predic- the costs and reliability of natural ty production. Interestingly, Zeihan sis. The choices can be made min-
tions. There are two factors driving gas supply. Digital twin models and shows that roughly half of the ute-by-minute, or at any longer inter-
these forecasts: population and stan- advanced control have already world’s population is located in val. The technology can model the
dards of living. The Energy Informa- proven to be crucial in the reduction Eastern and Southeastern Asia, interplay between multiple plants,
tion Administration (EIA) forecasts of energy use during LNG process- which has low potential for solar and multiple utility sources, for ex-
global energy demand to grow by al- ing. and wind farms. Perhaps as a conse- ample choosing between a wind en-
most 50 per cent between 2020 and Much more use of technology will quence of that, Southeast Asia has ergy source, natural gas-based elec-
Beck: As is being applied 2050. This will continue to drive the be necessary here, as the producers, pursued a path of exploitation of tricity, or diesel combustion at the
for LNG capital assets, wind need for energy – the question is driven by both economic reality and palm oil plantations as a potential plant, taking into account dollar cost,
farms have already begun which energy sources? And therefore sustainability needs, are embracing source of bio-energy and bio-chem- carbon costs, and reliability.
successfully adopting the “energy transition” required as these proven approaches beyond the icals. The balance of that ledger, So what is the future path for oil
prescriptive maintenance the sustainability movement drives initial successful adopters of these however, is not clear, as clearing of and gas majors? Firstly, predicting
solutions the globe towards “greener” energy tools. Each implementation of this rainforest in favour of palm oil peak oil demand is the forecaster’s
technology further advances the farms, is arguably a net negative on elusive gold star. Will it be 2025,
‘green-ness’ of natural gas. the sustainability scale. 2030, 2040 or later?
Huge capital has been tied up in Bioenergy conversion approaches, This will depend on factors in-
these projects, and so utilisation including bioethanol, biodiesel, cluding global economic growth
rates of these capital-intensive LNG waste-to-energy pyrolysis, algae (only really forecasted to grow sig-
plants is crucial. There, the pre- conversion, and biochemicals, have nificantly in Asia), energy conserva-
scriptive maintenance technology, gained acceptance at least partially tion (or “intensity”) in different re-
which embeds machine learning through the benefit of subsidies and gions, a shift to electric power over
and advanced AI analytics in solu- government policy. Process model- combustion and others. The IEA in
tions which alert operators to condi- ing technology continues to be cru- its most recent report has forecast
tions that create risk of degradation cial, although not widely enough peak oil demand will take place in
of the high-capital compressors and used, in improving the performance the 2030s.
cold boxes, are now beginning to of these processes. These processes Corporations globally have ac-
have an important impact. The con- are hamstrung by the high energy knowledged the onset of the energy
fidence of owners and developers in consumption of currently accepted transition. Some have chosen to re-
this technology will enable several technology. flect this through their investments
large development projects to pro- In order to contribute effectively to and their actions. An IHS Markit
ceed quickly. sustainability and energy transition, analysis shows that Total, Shell, BP
For highly complex and demand- advanced modeling and optimisation and Equinor have made at least 66
ing assets, such as LNG plants, the is needed to achieve fundamental acquisitions in the past several
self-optimising plant, a future vision improvement. Dr. Eric Dunlop, a years to diversify their energy port-
for industry in which data and AI specialist in large-scale biochemical folios. Others have chosen to focus
contribute to make these investments engineering projects and the algae on innovation in use of capital and
self-learning, self-adapting, and self- business, has pioneered these ap- on operational excellence to build a
sustaining, will be important. proaches in some groundbreaking resilient market position.
To achieve the aggressive targets work on algae-to-fuels. As the industry navigates the ener-
of global players, who are pledging New startups continue to innovate gy transition, technology will be a
to reach “zero carbon” operations with novel new technologies to im- key partner as organisations and
by dates ranging from 2030 to prove bio-energy conversion, and the their executives make strategic
2050, increasing the pace of devel- new generation of hybrid modeling, moves to improve their agility and
oping renewable power assets is which combine AI analytics with competitive positions into the fu-
viewed as crucial. These technolo- rigorous process modeling (such as ture. Those companies who adopt
gies, though, are still relatively new AspenTech’s innovative AI model some or all of the technology op-
in terms of the maturity curve. Util- builder), will be playing a big role portunities mentioned will be bound
ity scale wind and solar arrays are here in improving the technical pace to have an advantage.
just now beginning to reach the op- of innovation and commercialisation
erational phase where maintenance opportunities. Ron Beck is Marketing Strategy Di-
and uptime become concerns. Reducing energy use is another rector at Aspen Technology.