FACT SHEET EUROPE

NOVEMBER 2022

The seven amendments needed to align

Europe’s heavy-duty vehicle CO2 standards
with the European Climate Law
Europe’s heavy-duty vehicle CO2 standards will achieve The European Commission will review the CO2 standards
little climate benefit in their current form. Most trucks are by the end of 2022 and will propose amendments which
required to reduce their emissions by 15% by 2025 and are intended to align the truck and bus sector with
30% by 2030, relative to 2019. Freight activity is projected Europe’s long-term climate commitments. This fact
to rise by 44% by 2050, greatly diminishing the total sheet outlines recommendations for the most significant
CO2 reductions from the sector. With trucks and buses elements of the standards to achieve the decarbonization
accounting for a quarter of Europe’s CO2 emissions from required in the European Climate Law.
road transport, complying with climate neutrality will not
be possible in the absence of stricter standards.

Recommendation Explanation

Increase the 2030 target to 60%, Regulate all certified vehicles

introduce targets of 90% for 2035
and 100% for 2040 Most European truck and bus manufacturers have pledged to
Reduction targets
significantly increase their market share of zero-emission vehicles
relative to baseline 2030 2035 2040
-15% by 2040. If achieved, and supplemented with energy efficiency
improvements, this would equate to reduction targets of 60% in
60% 90% 100%
-60% 2030, 90% in 2035, and 100% in 2040. Most importantly, this would
deliver a 96% reduction in 90%annual
100%HDV CO2 emissions by 2050.
-90%
-100%
2025 2030 2035 2040 7-10%
%, Regulate all certified vehicles
035
%, Regulate all certified vehicles
035 Differentiate the ZLEV factor Do not introduce a
Reduction
basedtargets
on a vehicle’s MPW Currently,fuels
only crediting
63% of European
system truck and bus sales are covered by
relativeand
to baseline 2030
zero-emission 2035 2040
range
Reduction targets the CO2 standards. Extending the scope of the regulation to all HDVs
relative to baseline2030 2035 2040 covered by the certification regulation would cover 85% of annual
ZErange factor 60% MPW
90%factor
100%
sales, and 95% of annual truck and bus CO2 emissions. Separate CO2
× 60% 90% 100%
90% 100% standards should be created for trailers, as well as for buses and
ZLEV factor coaches.
90% 100%
× 7-10% Calculated PtX

Manufacturer × 7-10% emissions

emissions to determine
Do not introduce acompliance
fuels crediting
Do not system
introduce a
fuels crediting system
Introduce engine standards Extend the banking and borrowing
actor for vocational vehicles system past 2030, but only if the
actor
stringency of the standards is increased
(I) (II) (III) (IV)

PtX Debts
ated
ions PtX
 -60%
Increase the 2030 target to 60%, Regulate all certified vehicles
90% 100%
introduce
-90% targets of 90% for 2035
-100%
and 100% for 2040
2025 2030 2035 2040 7-10%
Reduction targets
Recommendation relative to baseline 2030 Explanation
2035 2040
Increase
-15% the 2030 target to 60%, Regulate all certified vehicles
%, introduce
Regulate targets of 90%vehicles
all certified for 2035 Manufacturers can reduce their compliance target by producing
%,
35 Differentiate
and 100%
Regulate the
forZLEV
2040
all certified factor
vehicles Do not introduce 60% a90% 100%
based on a vehicle’s MPW zero- and low-emission vehicles (ZLEVs) through a mechanism
35
-60% Reduction fuels crediting system
targets
andtargets
zero-emission range known
relativeas
to abaseline
ZLEV factor. By 2030,
2030 2035 manufacturers
2040 with a share of
Reduction
-15% 90% 100%
-90%
relative to baseline
Reduction targets 2030 2035 2040 ZLEVs between 2% and 5% can reduce their target by a maximum of
-100%
ZErange factor
relative to baseline 2030 MPW2035factor
2040 3%. Most manufacturers 60%already 90%plan to
100% sell 50%–70% zero emission
2025 2030 2035 2040 7-10%
the 2030 target to -60%60%, × 60%Regulate90% 100% all certified vehicles
vehicle by 2030, meaning the ZLEV factor provides little incentive for
%,
targets of 90% Regulate
for 2035 all certified 60%vehicles
90% 100%
ZLEV factor manufacturers to invest90% in zero-emission
100% technology.
35100% for 2040-90%
nd
Differentiate
-100% 90% factor
the ZLEV 100% Do not introduce a
Reduction targets
based
Reduction
2025
on a2030
targets
× 2035
90%MPW
vehicle’s 100%
2040
Calculated
relative to baseline The
2030ZLEV factor
fuels
2035 crediting
2040
PtX
should7-10%be phased out after 2030. In the meantime,
system
relative and
Manufacturer ×
zero-emission
to baseline range
2030
7-10% emissions
2035 2040 the mechanism can be improved by weighting the incentives based
emissions 7-10% to determine 60% 90% 100%
compliance
on the vehicle’s zero-emission range and mileage and payload
Differentiate
ZErange factor the ZLEV60%factor
MPW90% factor
100% Do not introduce a
weighting factor.
based Doonnot ×
a vehicle’s
introduce MPW
a 90% 100%
fuels crediting system
and zero-emission
Do
fuels not introduce
crediting range
a
system
ZLEV 90% 100%
factor Extend the banking and borrowing
Introduce engine
fuels crediting standards
system
025 2030 2035 2040 for vocational vehicles 7-10%system past 2030, but only if the
ZErange factor
× 7-10%MPW factor Fuels crediting, whereby PtXa manufacturer could reduce their CO2
stringency of the standards is increased
actor × Calculated
target by paying a fuels supplier to produce more renewable fuels,
actor Manufacturer × emissions
should not (I)be allowed
(II) (III)
in the (IV)
CO2 standards. Sustainable e-fuels
emissions
ntiate the ZLEV factor ZLEV factor to determine
Do not introduce a
d on a vehicle’s MPW Do not introduce compliance
a are prohibitively expensive,
Debts and biofuels are linked to issues of
fuels crediting system
zero-emission rangefuels crediting × system
Calculated
PtX
sustainability and availability. Fuel credits are also at risk of being
PtX
ated Manufacturer × PtX
emissions double counted due to fuel suppliers’ pre-existing obligations under
Extend the banking and borrowing
ons
or
ated Introduce
emissions
MPW factor engine standards
to determine
compliance thesystem
Renewablepast Energy
2030, but Directive.
only if the
rmine
actor
ons × for vocational vehicles
ance
rmine stringency of the standards
Credits is increased
ZLEV factor
ance
2025 (I) (II)
2030 and (III)
2035borrowing
2040 (IV)
Introduce engine standards Extend the banking
× Extend forthe banking vehicles
vocational
Calculated and borrowing
PtX
The scope
system of the
past CO
2030, standards
but
Debts
2 only ifshould
the be extended to vocational
PtX
r
ated × Extend
system the
emissions banking
past 2030, and
but borrowing
only if the vehicles
stringencythrough
of the the implementation
standards is of engine standards requiring an
increased
Allow for manufacturers to trade their credits
ions system
stringency past
of the
to determine 2030, but only
standards if the
is increased emissions(I)reduction through engine specific technologies. There would
(II) (III) (IV)
rmine compliance
stringency of the standards is increased
Manufacturer 1
(I) (II) (III) (IV) be little administrative burden, and the benefits may trickle across to
ance Debts
(I) (II) (III) (IV) CO2 other truck and bus segmentswhich use the same engine model.
Debts Credits
CO2 CO2
uce engine standards Debts Extend the banking and borrowing
Extend the banking andsystem
vocational vehicles borrowingpast 2030, but only if the
€€€
2025 2030 2035 2040
system past 2030, stringency
but only if the
of the standards is CO increased
2
CO2
Manufacturer 2
stringency of the standards is increased The CO standards
Allow for manufacturers
(I) (II) to
(III) trade creditsinclude flexibilities for manufacturers to comply
(IV) 2theirCredits
CO2 CO2 CO2
(I) Credits
(II) (III) (IV) with their CO
20252
emission targets through a credit and debt system,
2030 2035 2040
Credits Manufacturer 1 Debts
2025 2030 2035 2040
allowing them to accrue credits by over complying with their target
Debts
2025 2030 2035 2040 CO2 early, and using these credit to offset any future debts. The credit
Allow for manufacturers to tradeCO their credits
CO2
and debt2 mechanism should only be extended past 2030 if the
ufacturers to trade their credits
€€€ 1
Manufacturer stringency of the 2030 target is significantly increased. Otherwise, a
ufacturers to trade their credits CO2 CO2
rer 1 ManufacturerCredits
2 surplus of credits risks distorting the market.
CO
rer 1 Credits 2

CO2 CO2 2025 CO

2030 2035 CO2
2040 CO2
2
CO2 2025CO22030 2035 2040
€€€
CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2
€€ Allow for manufacturers to trade their credits
Manufacturer 2
CO2 CO2
ufacturers
€€
rer 2 to trade their credits
CO2
Manufacturer CO
1 2 CO2 CO2 CO2
rer 2 Manufacturers should be allowed to trade their credits to other
urer 1CO2
CO2 manufacturers if the stringency of the targets are increased. Doing
CO2
CO2 CO2 www.theicct.org
CO2 CO2
so would open a source of revenue for smaller manufacturers
€€€ [email protected]
who focus solely on zero-emission deployment, increasing
CO2 CO2
€€ Manufacturer 2CO
CO competitiveness in the market.
urer 2
2 2 twitter @theicct
CO2 CO2 CO2
CO2

PUBLICATION DETAILS
Title: Recommendations for revising the modalities of Europe’s heavy-duty vehicle CO2 standards
Authors: Eamonn Mulholland and Felipe Rodríguez
Download: https://theicct.org/publication/rev-eu-hdv-co2-standards-nov22
Contact: Eamonn Mulholland, [email protected]

2022 © INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL ON CLEAN TRANSPORTATION

BEIJING | BERLIN | SAN FRANCISCO | S Ã O PA U LO | WA S H I N G TO N