PROBABILITY

INTRODUCTION
In classXL we have studied (axiomatic or theoretical) probability and leahmedsom: ~:~.;s~I
related to probability, events, algebra of events, axiomatic appro_ac to pro a ~
1

probability of equaily likely outcomes and laws of probability. In this chapter, we s a

review the laws of probability and will study the following:
(i) conditional probability
(ii) multiplication theorem and independent events
(iii) law of total probability and Baye' s theorem
(iv) .Random variable and its probability distribution, mean and variance of random
variable.
(v) Repeated independ ent (Bernoullian) trials and Binomial distributi on.

JO.I LAWS OF PROBABILITY

Theorem 1. If A and B are events associated with a random experiment having sample space
S and if A c B, then
(i) P (A) S P(B) (ii) P (B - A) = P (B) - P (A). s
Proof. (i) Consider any arbitrary elementary event wi e A,
the~ wi e B ( ·: A c B, given)
~ l: P (w;) for all W; e A ~ l: P (wi) for all wi e B
~ p (A) ~ p (B).
(ii) From the adjoining Venn diagram, we have
B =AU (B-A)
... (1)
Note that A and B - A are mutually exclusive, so by axiom (iii), we have
P (AU (B - A))= P (A)+ P (B - A) . '
~ P (B) = P (A) + P (B - A)
(using (1))
~ P (B - A) = P (B) - P (A).
For example, let S be the sample space associated with tossin a f . .
S = {HHH, HHr, HTH, HIT THH THT ITH g air coin 3 times, then
' ' ' ' 1Tf} ' which h as 8 equally likely
outcomes.
Let A = getting three heads = {ID-IH} and
B = getting atleast two heads = {lffiH, HJ:ff, HfH, THH}.
· n(A) 1 (B)
We note that P(A) = - = - and P(B) = .!_ -_ 8
4
.
n(S) 8 n(S)
 ILITY
J\}sO we note that A c B and B _ A _ A-967
- {HHT, HTH, THH},
p (B _ A) = n (B - A) == ~
SO n(S) 8.

By the theorem proved above, we should have

p (B - A) = P (B) - p (A)

Lt, 3 = -4 - -1 w hich is
-8 tru e.
8 8'
J4utually exclusive events
L' A 11nd B Rre mutually exclusive event . s
~ . ·. s assoc1ated with a
,,.,0,,.expenment having sample space s th
[ P (AU B) = P(A) + P(B) ]--='._ en

For example, let S be the sample space associated with

~g a fair coin 3 times, then
S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT, THH, THT, ITH, ITT},
which has 8 equally likely outcomes.
Let A = getting three _heads = {HHH} and
B = getting exactly two heads = {HHT, HTH, THH}.
Here A U B = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH}, and we note that A and B have no outcome in
a,mmon, so these are mutuaUy exclusive events.

We note that P (A) = n(i) = .!., P (B) = n·(B) = i and p (Au B) = n(AUB) = .!
n(S) 8 n(S) 8 n(S) 8
Obviously, P (A) + P (B) = .!.8 + i8 = !8 = P (A U B), which verifies the theorem.
Generalised form of the above result is :
If A1, A2, ... , An are mutually exclusive events associated with a random experiment, then
P(A1 U A 2 ... U An)= P(A1) + P(A2) + ... + P(An).
Note that A 1 U A 2 ••• U A 11 means A 1 or A 2 . .. or A,, i.e. atleast one of events Ai, A , ..• , A,,
2
happens.
By using principle of induction, we can easily prove that if A 1, A 2 , ... , A,, are mutually
exclusive, then ·
P(A1 U A 2 •. . U An) = P(A1) + P(A2) + ... + P(A,J
cliti~n theorem for mutually exclusive and exhaustive events
Theorem 2. I/ A and B are mutually exclusive and exhaus~e events associated with a
111'•111Ron. experiment having sample space S, th e,[j(A) + P(B) = 1.:...J_
Proof. Since A and B are mutually exclusive, so
P(A u B) = P(A) + P(Bl ... (i)
Also A and Bare exhiustive, so AU 8 = 5
==> P(A U B) = P(S) = 1
P(A) + P(B) = 1
--~
Generalised Torm ~f the above theorem is :
(using (i))
I
I
I

l/ '4i, Al' ..., An are mu tually exclusive

. and
. exhau_stive. events
_ associated
_ _ a random
with _
'nrent havin sample space -S, enth
p
p (Al) + (A2) + ... + p (A,,) = 1•
 G JSC MATHEMATICS-XU (II)
UNDERSTANDIN
A-968

Addition theorem on probabil I'ti es . t d with a ran d m --r

_.,,eriment having °
Theorem 3. If A and B are any two even ts associa e
sample space S, then
p (A U B) s p (A) + p (B) - p (A ('\ B).
. . . Venn di agram, we have
Proof. From the ad1ommg s
A U B = A U (B - A)
=> P (A U B) = P (A U (B - A))
=> P (A U B) = P (A) + P (B - A)
. .
(Usmg axiom ... as A and B - A are mutually exclusive)
(m),
AnB
=> p (B - A) = P (A U B) - P (A) ... (l)
Also, B = (A () B) U (B - A)
=> P (B) = P((A () B) U (B - A))
=> P (B) = P(A n B) + P(B - A)
(Using axiom (iii), as A () B and B - A are mutually exclusive)
=> P (B - A) = P (B) - P(A n B) ... (2)
From (1) and (2), we have
P (A U B) - P (A) = P (B) - P (A () B)
=> P (A U B) = P (A) + P (B) - P (A () B)

For example, consider the experiment of tossing a coin thrice, so that sample space
S = {HHH, HHT, HTH, HTI, THH, THT, ITH, TIT},
which has 8 equally likely outcomes.
Let A = getting two or more heads = {HHH, HHT, HTH, TIIH} and
B = getting an odd number of heads = {HHH, HIT, TIIT, ITH}
We note that A and B are not mutually exclusive as they have one outcome HHH in common.
Here A n B = {HHH}, A U B = {HHH, HIIT, H.fH; THH, HIT, TIIT, ITH)
P(A) = -n(A) = -48 = -21 I P(B) = -4 = -1
n(S) 8 2'

P(A n B) = -1 and P(A U B) = -7 .

8 8
We can verify that as predicted ?Y the theorem,
P{A) + P(B) - P(A n B) ~ .!. + .!. - .!. = ?_ = P(A U B)
2 2 8 . 8 ·
Theorem 4. If A and B are any two events associated w ·th
MP<AU~=P<A-m+PW-M+P<Anm t a random experiment, then
(ii) P (A U B) = P (A) + P (B - A) : P (B) + p (A _ B)
(iU) P (A) = P (A - B) + P (A n B) (iv) p (B) p( ·

(v) P (A - 8) • P (A
_
n B) (vi) ;_p (B
=
A)
B - A.) + P (A
-
n B)
(vii) P (A) + P (8) • P (A - B) + P (B - A) - °'B).= P(A
+ 2P (A n n B)
REMARKS
t. P (A n B) or P (A - known as the probal,iJi of
B) is
2 P (A
·
n B) or P (B - A) is known as the probabu·ty occurrence of A only.
3 P ((A n B) U ( A n B)) is known th ity of occurrence of B only.
· as e probabil ·
one of the two events A and B. . tty of OCCUrrence of only (or exactly)
 pAoBABn.nY A-969
Since ~e events A _ B and . . _
exclusive, so B - A i.e. the events A () B and A () B are mutually

P((A n B) u (An B)) = P(A () B) + P(A () B)

Thus, the probability of occurre f ·
O
by p (An B) + p ( A n B). nee only (or exactly) one of the two events A and Bis given

Theorem 5. If A, B and C are a •

ny three events associated with a random experiment then
p (A u B u C) = p (A) + p (B) + p (C) - p (A n B) - p (B n C) - p (A n C) + p (A n B n C)
Proof. P (AU BU C) = p ((AU B) UC)
= p (A U B) + p (C) - P ((A U B) n C)
(using theorem 3)
= p (A) + p (B) - p (A n B) + p (C)
- P ((A () C) U (B n C))
= p (A) + p (B) + p (C) - p (An B) - [P (A n C)
+ p (B n C) - p ((A n C) n (B n C))]
= P (A) + P (B) + P (C) - P (A n B) - P (B () C)

n C) + p (A () B n C)
- p (A
. ('": (A n C) n (B n C) = A n B () C)

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES
Exampiey_There are three mutually exclusive and exhaustive events E1, E2 and E3• The odds are 8: 3
agRins~E1 ,md 2 : 5 in favour of E2. Find the odds against E3.
Solution. We know that if odds in f~vour are a : b, the probability is _a__
- . -.... . a+b
----· ·2 2
Since odds in favour of E2 are 2 : 5, P (Ez) = 2 + ~. = 7
f:

Odds against E1 are 8 : 3. Alternatively, odds in favour of El are 3 : 8

3 3
-
P(E1) = -
3+8
=-.
11
Given that El' E2 and E3 are mutually exclusive and ~~austiv e
P(E1) + P(E2) + P(E3) =1
2 3 77 - 22 - 21 34
P(EJ = 1 - P(E2) - P(E1) = l - 7 - 11 = 77 = 77

Odds against E3 are [1 - P(E3)] : P(E3) = ( l - ~) : ~ = 43 : 34.

t ... __ Ii
~p e . n a given ,
. ...ace the odds in favourd hof four
. .
horses A, B, C and D are 1 : 3 1: 4
:1.z
1 : and 1 : 6 respectively. Assuming that dea !El ~s zmpossiu e, find the chance that one of t~em
I ,
I I

Wins the race.. t\ O ~ C&, .

l~tion. Let E E E and E4 be the events of winning the horses A, B, C and D respective ly
11 '2 3 thh AB .
Since the odd of winning in favour of e orses , , C and D are 1 : 3, 1 : 4, 1 : 5 and
: 6 respectively, 1
t ) 1 p(E , = .! and P(E4) = - .
P(E1) = - , P(Ei = 5, :v 6 7
Qruy one~ the horses can win the race, the events E1, E:z, ~ and E, are mutually exclusive.
 -
A97 0

P(E 1) • !!_ • 1. NE. :)• !. 4'nd NF J • 10

10 ' lO
-~
,t -,ff fe., J an, ,~ . 10 ~ -~ trer --< ht.- h
:. Th" pn~.abil,t'" of A 8 M\J C t-rln Ill

fr""" ~
• EH It • '""'· th~ p~ lllf t'I of ,4 l#fW I '""""':I llw ,.., /Wt !J ,t,.J •! ,,,.,w.1r1:11f t1

,,.. "1/ ity of flftlit ,W,,

Sol utio n. Giw n f'(A } •
of lh,r,,t

!)
A• t,c-,,h A •nd 8 CM'lntlC wtn rtw wnw
r,""'".f
md f'HIJ •
,_. u
.IN ,_.,.

!
r,nf y ,,.,,. r,f th.m <Mt wtn tfw
•
••·•,. !ht ~~
A and 8 •tt
mu tu.Uy ""dU"'tvti
> • r u · f"\. '1 : f'HA U IH1
N(lw Nn r1th tt of lhrm wm run ~ r.n-
• I · P (..~ U II> • I· (f fA) ., rt!I
,)

( ·: A •nJ 8 .,,. ni~ n.- •,.: fwu

"" rtW "r.f• J
•
-a -( !l . •!L ., .. !.
l
!
J
J

.:,, trtll .~ t, ""'"""" t 1-"Mt ,. • ,1,,t,,."' ,,~~- ,

., 1
£•. .,(, ';
~,;..,,. .'
5. Tltt ,rolwl.H/tty tlwt • ""'1ffet·r
""" ' _..., . . j tlfllJ "
It,,
acl .>¥ toirt lra.- t a, ~ . ~,I t#ttt ..,_
M • -, If tJw r,W tJ1 ty pf ~tm , tlllt
- -: ' rt tltty ,._, , 1w Ml f"',.,.tt,f~
.....
dw ·,'ltf tha" b. (Ix' J u i t)
A • tN a1"tr41ffl.\f ~ pturntn
,.. mn tr
Sollltioll. ut ~ t
e•
tht rontr.---.r P't l ~"""trtc
mn rrw t.act.
_
P\Al • ~- ~lh • : . rtA '+J fll • :
A I\.
W •-. g,w n
ind te.t tft dw nm t that th.
To find MA ,., Bl. ' " uw
rnN rlkt tlf lff l l,i\lf.h ...
• (l,fttr...._,
PfA) • "8 ) • i,A v Ill • ~J. 4.. • .. •
, 1rJ • -

,,..,.tJ~.,. ...,, ,_.,., ...4...,,.,. '--

rtA t- 1) • '1I .. " 14
11w • t - _.- • ~
E '- t,, •~ m y. Mt,
;44 , ~ "'- ..... .... N
,._If_,,,_.,,,,,
11
tlw ... ... ,.,. ....., •. ...l .,..____
,,.. I
- -4
l
··• ,p..,,
J - ~~~~ •
~~•~•~~~

,.,...
.,., ,,4 .. . j
I
. '"" "", ,,.. ..,, ,,,,
........... .,......u~... .,,.
., • ... ... , . . . . . . ,.,
·
,.,_
•

Ju -a)
,_~,..rrv A-971
~I
- •s• Ld events A and 8 ht defined as ful~ :
A • INding tnomin" "-"'~r-r,.,, and
I • rNding n-mi"R ~r.-r
- 1 - )
awnl'(A) • 2• fiB ) •; • ndt'(A f"I R) .. !.
' ~

- I
Nol" r( A) • 2 • I ... l'( A) • i' • rt A) .. j ""''
I'( i > • ~ r nn • ! • ~
~
1\16"d P(A U I'\ "-. \l.'lllf
-. , -
' "°'fll •
" ,· •
r{A V 8 ) • r{A) • "nl . r(A () 8)

• l'(A V 8) • .!.2 • ~~ - ~, • !l • !, . ~
10 .
HllW. lht ~
~ .
--.
lity that • ~ident read!' eithtt the morning Of ~vt-nin~ 01' b(lth the
~
10

la-.' 1. 1/ Ill(.<\ U 8) • 0.6 ''"d PU fi B) • D.l , find P( A) + P( 8). (NCERT £.rrmplm)

- - \\'t know that P(A U B) • P(A ) + P(B) - P(A () B)
• 0.6 • t'(A) + P(B) - 0.2
• PlA) • P(B> • 0.8 ... (r)
- - NA) ♦ P( 8) - (l - P(A)) + (1 - P(B)) - 2 - (P(A ) + P(B))
• 2 - 0.8 (u~ing {i))
e
A )+ P( >. 1.2 .
1 . - 2
~ I/ A • rrd 8 llrt htl() rt'f'n ts lurving P (A U 8) • Rnd P (A) • J' find th,: probab1l1ty of
2
AI\ I , (NC£RT Exemp/11r)

k 1 a C.vm P (A U B) • i
J
• P(A V (B - A)) • i . .
~ adioining Venn dtagram)
(·: A U B• A U (8 - A)• · ,-
1
11t PIA) • P(B - A) • 2
( ,,. A .net 8 - A ire mutu,lly e,-clu,lv• n.nt~) 1-A
I
n _p (A)) ... p (8 n A>• 2
(·.· A n 8 ~ B f\ A)
I- ,.
l • P ( A I" 8) • ..~
.

2 I
P fX n B) • ! + - - 1• , •
2 '
,,h tlult I' (A) • 0..s4,. P(8) .. 0.69 ,mJ P (A I"\ II) • O.J5. jind
4 B ,, two ,WII ,. ,u, '
I._
,. A
u 8)
•n • AB')
(ii) p (A ' '
,
(m) r U f'\ a·)
0 "l.
(MP (8 f\ A'), (NCERn
"' r(B) • 0.69 and r(A f' II) "' ..~,
Qven P(A) • o.~;, • P(A) ♦ PCB) .. r (A n II)
• know that P(A U O.... • _
O u+069 - -~~ 0 88 , l
P(A U B) • .;119 • , • l _ p (A U 8)
P(A' n 8') • P((A U B) )
. - 1 - 0.88 - o. 12
A.•972 s
(iii) P(A n B') • P(A - B)
• P(A) - r (A f'\ B)
(from v,nn diagram)
• O.~ - OJ..~ • 0.1'J
(it') r(B n A. ) • NB - Al ,
• N1\) - (A r n B) A- B AnB
(fn,m Vtnn diagram)
• • O.f\Q - 0.3.." • 0.3-1
. :ramination. Tht probability that Anil will
. o. n.~ ~"""'"f'!I Atttl .,,,,I A~"'"'' ,,,,,wml t~ "" t
bf~.,ft ;1., • O10 The probability that both will
.._,,6J,~ tltt t.\'Plf,t,tf h" t i$ 0-(l.ti. ,md fh'1f l\~timo u11ll qual,1:, ,s · ·
.-,,~ ~ 0.02. f rnd tht J"''Nfttlit'!' tJwl
(i\ h,tll ,\•ul .,., .<i\:-hrm• "''" n,,t qualify tht uam
•IMl!J l'#tf tf the-'" 11•,ll. n(lf qualify tl1t exam, arad
. . (NCERn
I "'1.l!f o,v ,f lhr1" anll qualify the txam. . .
Sohat.ioa. leot A and 8 denote the events that Anil and Ashima will respectively qualify the exam,
lt-.m
l'lA) • 0.OS, P(B) • 0. 10; P(A () B) = 0.02
rtA V 8) • P(A) + P(B) - P(A n B) = 0.05 + 0.10 - 0.02 = 0.13
(,) 11w f'\-mt that both Anil and Ashima will not qualify the exam can be expressed as none
qu.ilifies i.t . as A' ('\ B'.
Sow P(A' '1 B') • P{(A U B)') =1 -
P (A U B) = 1 - 0.13 = 0.87
(nl l'roNbility of atleast one of them does not qualify = P(A' U B') = P((A n B)')
• 1 - P (A n B) = 1 - 0.02 = 0.98 s
fm) Given ~-ent, that only one of them qualifies, is
A B
np~~ as union of A - B and B - A. But the events
A - B •nd B - A are mutually exclusive, therefore,
P((A - 8) U (B - A)) • P(A - B) + P(B - A).
:. Required probability • P(A - B) + P(B _ A) A- B AnB B- A
I'&\~) .,. ~Pl~r\9) • P(A U B) - P(A () B) .
'\.: ~~----_:,_; _' (from Venn diagram)
• 0.13 - 0.02. 0.11
£ le J1~ A f!,11 d,~ i, lhrC1Wt1 onct. What is tht probalnlity that • .
l.httrt th,,r u•rll turn up?
Mtrr ti t fier an et,en number ~ number
SoluUon. At • fair di• I• thrown once, the sample spa f th (ISC 201 0)
4. S, 61. It ron,,,t, of ,ix fqually likely outcomes. ce O e rand<:>m experiment S • ll, 2. 3.
I.A't A be dw ~mt 'die thowa an even numbt-r' anti be
gn-ak-r than thrN!', thm 8 the event, 'die shows numt,er
A• lt •• 61 Ind 8 • 14, 5, 61,
tk-ff A t'\ B • 14, 6},
• f•(.a.) nC A) l 1 ,,(a)
• - - • - • - P(B) • " 3
i • i1
·, n
n(&) ' 2, ~•

and P(A n 8) • ! . ! .
6 l
•. P(die lhowa either an even number of .
• P(A U 8) a number 8, ter than three)
• P(A) + P(B) • P(A t'\ B) •
• !+l-!.1 . l 2
2 2 3 -3 • 1·
 A-973
~~ JLI TY
p 2. A bag con tain s 20 ball s num b ~t random_Jrom the bag.
tha t the ball d eredJ:'om 1 to 20: One ball is drawn is a mul ttpl e of 3 ~ 4?
s-o'w,u;t fr; the pro bab ility
rawn IS marked with a num ber
which
(ISC 201 4)

tion. As bthe bag con tain s 20 b a II 5 num ber ed from 1 to 20 and one baJJ is dra wn at ran dom
1 f th equ ally like ly
th the ran dom exp erim ent has 20
SO 11 th
orA e, e sam ple spa ce S of
trom e aLg,t eret
outcomes. e eve ns and B be def iqe d as follows:
A = num ber ma rke d on the
ball is a mu ltip le of 3
= {3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18} and
l is a mu ltip le of 4
B = num ber ma rke d on the bal
= {4, 8, 12, 16, 20}.
Here A n B = {12}.
n (A) = 6, n (B) = 5 and n (A n
B) = 1.

6 5
('i B) = 2~.
P(A) = 20, P(B ) = 20 and P(A
B)
P(m ulti ple of 3 or 4) = P(A U
= P(A ) + P(B) - P(A n B)
6 5 1 10 1
-----.
- - + - -20
20 20 20 2
probability tha t it
wn from a wel l shu ffled pack of playing cards. Wh at is the
, Ew npl ,.A ( A car d is dra (ISC 2015)
or an ace or both.
is ~ - a spade spa ce of
m a wel l shu ffle d pac k of 52 pla yin g car ds, the sam ple
Solution. As a car d is dra wn fro
ally likely out com es.
the ran dom exp erim ent has 52 equ
d as follows :
Let eve nts A and B be def ine
and
A = dra win g a car d of spa de
B = dra win g an ace, the n
A () B = an ace of spa des .
1
= 13 P(B) = .i. and P(A r'l B) = - 52 ·
p (A) 1
52
52
bot h)
P(e ithe r a spa d; or an ace or n B)
= P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A

~ ~
r:~rawn
ltaa, bag co nta ins ;} n:t:~.::::
at ran dom from the bag, find the
~~s= :.~ of the bolts and half of
the nut s are rusted. On e
probability tha t it is either rus ted
or a bolt.

ber of item s in the bag = 150

+ 50 = 200.
hation. Tot al num erim ent has
wn fro m the bag at ran dom , so the sam ple spa ce of this exp
As one item is dra
equ ally like ly out com es.
ow s :
Let eve nts A and B be def ine d as follnd
a
A= dra win g of a rus ted item
B = dra win g of a bol t. item s in the bag
and hal f of the nut s are rus ted , so the num ber of rus ted
As half of the bol ts

= _! 50 + _!
X X 150 = 25 + ?S = lOO
2 2 .
n(A ) =10 0
100 l
P(A) = 200 = 2· •
1
 ISC MATHEMATICS-XII (ll)
A-974 UNDERSTANDING •'
The numb er of bolts in the box = 50, so n(B) = 50.
50 1
P(B) = 200 = 4·
Note that An B = drawin g of a rusted bolt.

Numb er of rusted bolts in the bag = ½ x 50 = 25

⇒ n(A n B) = 25.
25
P(A n B) = 200 = s·1
:. Requi red probab ility = P(a rusted item or bolt) = P(A U B)
= P(A) + P(B) - P(A n B)

Exam ~lS. Two dice are rolled once. Find the probability of getting
an even number on the fir st die or
atal of 8. .
(ISC 2016)
Solution. When two dice are rolled once, then the sampl e space has
36 equall y likely outcom es.
Let A be the event 'even numbe r on the first die' and B be the event
'a total of 8' • Then
A = {(2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4,
4),
(4, 5), (4, 6), (6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6)}
and B = {(2, 6), (3, 5), (4, 4), (5, 3), (6, 2)}.
Note that A n B = {(2, 6), (4, 4), (6, 2)}.
Here n (A) = 18, n (B) =· 5 and n (An B) = 3 .
.
18 5 3
P(A) = , P(B) = and P(A n B) = .
36 36 36
Requi red probab ility = P(an even numbe r on first die or a total of
8)
= P(A U B)
= P(A) + P(B) - P(A n B)
18 5
- - + - - -3- -20
=-.
5
36 36 36 36 9
Exam Two fair dice are thrown once. What is the probability that the sum of two
d by 3 or 4?
numbers is
.
Solution. When two dice are throw n once, then the sampl e space has
36 equall y likely outcom es . .
Let events A and B be define d as follows:
·
A = su!Il of numbe rs is divisib~e by 3 .~.e. sum of numbe rs is 3
4
6, 9 O[ 12
B = sum of ntimbe rs is divisible by 4 i.e. sum of numbe rs is 4 8
. , or 12, then ·
A = {(l, 2), (2, 1), (1, 5), (5, 1), (2, 4), (4, 2), (3, 3), (4, 5), (5, 4), (3,
6), (6, 3), ( , )} and
B = {(l, 3), (3, 1), (2, 2), (2, 6), (6, 2), (3, 5), (5, 3), (4, 4), (6, 6)} 6 6
A n B = {(6, 6)}.
n (A) = 12, n (B) = 9 and n (An B) = 1.
12
P(A) =, P(B) = ~ and P(A (') B) = _!__
. ... 36 36 36
Requi red proba bility= P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A n B)
12 9 1 20 5
- -+---=---
36 36 36 36 9'
~~T · are rolled. Find I
-rnple 1 . wo fiair· dice .. A-915.
~tai 'd. t te probab,l1ty that neither a doublet nor a total of 10 is

solution. When two fair dice are rolled h

nts A and B b d f' ' t en the sample space has 36 equally likely outcomes.
Let eve e e med as follows:
A= getting a doublet and
B = getting a total of 10, then
A = {(1, 1), (2, 2), (3, 3), (4, 4), (5, 5), (6, 6)1 and
B = {(4, 6), (6, 4), (S, 5)} .
.. A () B = {(5, 5)}
n(A) = 6, n(B) = 3 and n(An B) = 1
•• P(A) = !,
P(B) =
3
36
and P(A n B) = _!__
36
P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A n B)
6 3 1 8 2
=- +---=-=-
36 36 36 36 9.
Required probability = P( An B) = P( AU B) = 1 - P(A U B)

= 1 - 3. = ~-
9 9

&ampl_,(s'. An integer is chosen at random from the numbers 1 to 50. What is the probability that the
;;i;::iwsen is a multiple of l, ~r_3 9r 10?
Solation. Here, sample space S = {l, 2, 3, 4, ... , 50}. Jt consists of 50 equally likely outcomes.
Let A, B and C be the events of getting multiples of 2, 3 and 10 respectively. Then
A = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 20, 22, 24, 26, 28, 30, 32, 34, 36, 38, 40, 42, 44, 46,
48, 50},
B = {3, ,{µ 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, 24, 27, 30, 33, 36, 39, 42, 45, 48},
= (10, 20, 30, 40, 50},
C
A rt B = {6, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36, 42, 48}, B n C = {30},
A rt C = {10, 20, 30, 40, 50} and A n B n C = {30}.
Here n(A) = 25, n(B) = 16, n(C) = 5, n(A n B) = 8, n(B n C) = 1, n(A n C) = 5
and n(A rt B n C) = 1
5 8 ( 1
·· P(A) = ~' P(B) = ;~, P(C} = SO' P ~ ) = 50' p B n C) = 50'
. 1
P(A n C) = ~ and P(A n,!...0 C) = so·
Req:;d probability = P(A U B U C) . ·
. = P(A) + P(~) + P(q - P(A 0 B) - P(B ~ q - P(A n_c)(± P(A n 1i59
- 16 5 ( 8 1 ~) + _!_
a:
2S
50+50 +--
50
-+-+
50 50
50 50

25 + 16 + 5-(8 + 1 + 5) + 1 = ~-
- 50 50

ents associated with a random experiment such that P(A) = 0.3,

19. A, B, C are e'tJ A () B) • 0.08, PJA 0 C} • 0.28 and P(A n B ()-C) = 0.09.
0.4, P(C) = O.B, P( ve that P(B () C} lies in the interval [0.23, 0.48). ·
LI B UC)~ 0.75, then pro . _.. _ .,_
bili',. . of an event hes between O and 1 both inclusive and it is
know that the prob a •;
(A U B U C) ~ o.75,
(AUBUC)~l
~:-=--::- - - - - - - - - - - - -
-- - - . . . . . - -1(}f1Qf!f\JTn&
A-976
P(A n C) + p(A () B n C) ~ 1
n 09 ~ 1
0.75 s P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(A B)-P (B C)-+ 0 n
0.75 s; 0.3 + 0.4 + 0.8 - 0.08 - P(B n C) - O.ZS
.
0.75 S 1.23 - P(B n C) s; 1
0.75 - 1.23 s; - P(B n C) s; 1 - 1.23
~ -0.48 s -P(B n C) s; -0.23
~ 0.48 ~ n C) ~ 0.23
P(B
~ 0.23 S P(B n C) s; 0.48
( ) lies in the interval [0.23, 0.4S].
b b'l'ty th t th d
Ex cards are drawn at randomfrom a pack of 52 cards · Find the pro a i i a e car s
. ,
are either both red or both aces.
Solution. Out of 52 cards, two cards can be draw n 52
in C2 ways.
:. The total numb er of outcomes = s2c , whi ch are equally likely.
2
Let A = event of draw ing two red cards and B = t f draw ing two aces, then
A n B = even t of draw ing two cards which
even ° ,
are both red aces.
As there are 26 red cards, 2 red cards can be
draw n in 26C2 ways
P(A) = :c2 = 26.25 x ~ = ~ -
C2 1.2 52.51 102
Since there are 4 aces, 2 aces can be draw n in 4C
2 ways
4
P(B) = C2 = 4.3 X~ =-1 -
52C2 1.2 52.51 221°
As there are only two red aces, 2 red aces can
be draw n in 2C 2 ways .
P(A n B) = 522c2 = 2.1 X~ =-1 -.
c2 1.2 52.51 1326
Required probability = P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) -
P(A n B)
=
~+- 1___1_= 325+ 6-1
102 221 1326 1326 \
330 55
=-=-
1326 221
Ex ~21 . A box contains 30 bolts and 40 nuts. Half of
• . .
the bolts and hallf 0,+ th t d Jrf tw
ems are drawn at random, find the probability that either both are r 'Jt d e nub share rustel . 1 o
. us e or ot are bo ts.
Solution. Total numb er of items in the box= 30 + (ISC 2012)
40 = 70.
The total numb er of ways of drawing 2 items from
the box t
a rand om
. = 1oc2 = 7~: ~9 = 2415.
Let A = event of draw ing 2 ruste d items,
B = even t of draw ing 2 bolts, then
A n B = even t of draw ing _2 rusted' bolts.
As half of the bolts and half of ,the nuts are ruste d
th
' e numb er of ruste d item s in the bo)(
=
1
z
X 30 +
1
2 ~ 40 = 15 + 20 = 35.
The numb er of ways of draw ing_2 ruste d items from
the box
= 35C2 =, 35 x 34 = 595.
lx2
595 119
P(A) = ws= 483.
 ~
The number of bolts in th.,. bo
~ )( - 30 A-977
1he number of wa ys of dra Win 2 bo .
g lttl from the box
= 30(: • 30 x 2Q
2 lx2 - 4J5 .

• P(B) = ~ = E..
.. i415 -&SJ ~

The number of rus ted bol ts in th L.

-
e lJ\.l X • 2l x 30 • 15.
The number of wa ys of drc1 w inLt
o 2 rus t"'\."\.I
..a L ..
ll\,l ts from the box
= 1~ 15 )( 1-l
"'-1"'" - = 105
1X 2 ' J

I
P(A f'\ B) = ~ = .3.!_
241 5 483
· RfqU.ired pro bab ilit y = P(A U
B) = P(A ) + P(B) _ P(A () B)
_ 119
- - +87 21
-- - =185
-
483 483 483 483

EXERCISE 10.1
Joy sltort ans wn typ e questions (1 to 8) :

L Given P(A ) =~ and P(B) = ! , find P(A or B)," giv en tha t A and B
5 5 are rnu ~al ly exclusive

(NCER"D
1 The pro bab ilit y of an eve nt A
occ urri ng is 0.5 and of B is 0.3.
exclusive eve nts , the n find the U A and B are mu tua lly
probability of neither A nor B occurring.
1 If A and B are mu tua lly exclusive
eve nts, P (A) = 0.35 and P (B) =
0.45, then find
(1) p (A') (ii) P (B') (iii) P(A U B) (iv) P (A () B)
(t7) P(A () B') (vi) P (A' () B')
(NCERT Exemplar)
Hint. (v) As A and B are mu tua lly exc
lusive, A - B = A.
.-. p (A ('\ B') = P(A _ B) = P(A) = 0.35
l If E and F are events such tha t P(E) 1 1
= 4' P(F) = 2 and p (E and F) 1
= 8' find .
(i) P(E or F) (ir) P(n ot E and not F).
5• A and B are t P(A ) = 0.42, P(B) .., 0.48 and P(A (NCER"D
events sueh tha and B) = 0.16. Det erm ine
(,1 P(not A) (i,) P(n ot B) (iii) P(A or B). .
'- exclusi (NCERT)
A and B are two mu ~a 11 Y find ve events of an exp enm ent . If P(not A) .., 0.65,
the value of p.
,. P(A U B) • 0- 65 and P(B • p,
.ated with a ran dom experiment
· ! and F are two eve n~ ; 500 2. for which P(E) = 0.60,
0 4 Find P(f) .
P(E or F) = 0.85, P(E an .
• · elusive and exhaustive eve
If A, B and C are mutually ex nts and it is kno wn tha t
P(A U B) • 0.63, calculate p(C), tusi
ve and exhaulltiVI? events nssociat I
B C are three mutually exc . cd wit h a ran dom I
, 3 I
. . iven that P(B) •
ent. Fin d P(A), it t,eing g 2 P(A) and P(C) • .!2 P(B). (
• t
A-978 n ineering college. 1 ne p_rooafiility
--
mission in an e g ed is atmost 0.3. Is 1t possible
10. A and Bare two candidates seeking
.

that A is selected is 0.5 and the proba 1

1
;~.ty that 1,oth are select
• 7?
(NCERT Exemplar)
15 0
that the probability of B getting selected • ·

s 1 ~ P (A)
1
Hint. P (A U B) + P (B) - p (A f\ B) S
~ 0.5 + P (B) s1+ P (A () B)
~ P (B) s 1 - 0.5 + 0.3 ( ·: P(A fl B) S O.J)
~ P (B) :s 0.8
So, P (B) • 0.7 is logic.1llv valid.
" . . 2 th robability of event B not occurring
11. The probability of an t?vent A occurring 1s 3 and e P

5 0 f the two events is 5 what is the !,

is - . If the probability of getting success in atleast one
9
probability of success in both the events? .
12. Tickets numbered from 1 to 20 are mixed up· together and then ~ ticke~
15 drawn a!
random. What is the probability that the ticket has a number which is multiple(of 3 or 7 •
ISC 2005)
'
13. The probability that a student will pass the final examination in both English and Hindi
is 0.5 and the probability of passing neither is 0.1. If the probability of passing the English
examination is 0.75 what is the probability of passing the Hindi e?'amination?
14. In a class of bO students, 30 opted for NCC, 32 opted for NSS and 24 opted for both NCC
and NSS. lf one of these students is seiected at random find the probability that
(1) the student opted for NCC or NSS.
(i11 the student has opted neither NCC nor NSS.
(ii,) the student has opted NSS but not NCC.

15. For a ~t, ~ee persons A, Band Capp~~ in an interview. The probability of A being
selected m twice that of B and the probab1hty of B being selected is thrice that of c. If the
post is filled, what are the probabilities of A, B and C being selected?
16. A card is drawn from a well shuffled pack of playing cards Wh • h . . th
it is either a spade or an ace or both? · at is t e probability at

17. A card is drawn at random from a pack of 52 playing cards Wh . ..

the card drawn is neither a spade nor a queen? · at is the probability that
. (ISC 2006)
18. A card is drawn at random from well shuffled k
probabil/ty that·it is neither a king nor a red card. pac of 52 playing cards. Find the
19. Find the probability of getting an odd number on th f . ·
throw of two dice. e IrSt die or a total of 8 in a single
20. If two dice are thrown simultaneously find th b ·
, e pro ability of .
(,) a sum of 7 or 11 (ii) d getting
a oublet or a total O f 6
21. The probabilities that a student will get A 8 C ·
respectively. Find the probability that she ~ill
getor D grade are 0.4, 0.35, 0.15 and 0.1
('1 B or C grade (ii) atm t C
. os grade.
Hint. Events of getting A, B, C or D grad ·
es are mutual}
(ii) atmost C grade means c or O d Y exclusive
gra e. ·
22. Two cards are drawn at random from a pack f
0 52
are either both aces or both black cards? cards..What is probability that the cards
JlflOBABD.JIY .
2,'J. A bas ket con tain s 20 app les and A-979
defective. If a per son take s out f10
_oranges out of_which 5 apple~ _and 3
are app les or bot h are goo d. 2 nut or_anges are
s at rand om, find the probab1hty that
eith er bot h
Hint. Req uire d pro bab ility == 20 c + 22c
2 1sc
30c2 ~-~
2
2
C2 30C 2.
J0.2 CONDITIONAL PRO BA Bl LITY
Suppose you dra w a card out of
. a pac k of52 cards. The probability of its bein
13 1 g a card of
diamonds 1s - = -4 . Now sup pos e th t
52 a you are told that the card draw n is a
red card. Would
the probability of it bein g a card f d .
0 1 amo nds be -1 as before or will it be diff
additional info rma tion ? We kn 4 erent given this
th th
ow at ere are only 26 red cards. So
given that the card
drawn is red, the prob abil ity of it bein
g a d1·amon d card . 13 1 Thi h
1s = . s c ange d probab·1·t 1 1y
is called con diti ona l probability 26 2
.
As ano ther exa mpl e, con side r the eve
nt of tossing two coins once.
The sam ple spa ce is S = {HH, HT, TH,
TT}
Let A= eve nt that two tails or two hea
ds turn up,
and B = eve nt that atle ast one hea d
turns up
Then if we kno w that atle ast one hea d
turns up i.e. B has happened, wha t is the
of A hap pen ing? Since we kno w that probability
B has occurred, the set of possible outc
omes is
B = {HH , HT, TH} .
Since thes e outc ome s wer e equally likel
y in the original sample space S, we assi
probabilities to each . Thu s the original gn equal
sample space S has been reduced to B. In
only outcome favo urab le to A is HH. the set B, the
Hence, given that B has occurred, the prob
ability of A
happening is 1:.. We wri te this as P(A
I B).
3
Let A and B be two events associated with
a random experiment, then the probability of
of the event A under the condition that occurrence
B has occurred and P(B) * 0 is called the
probability and is denoted by P(A / B). cond itional
Thus, P(A B) = pro bab ility of occurren
I ce of event A given that event B has
already
occurred,,.P(B) -:;, 0.
Similarly, P(B A) = pro bab ility of occu
I rrence of event B given that the even
t A has
already occurred, P(A ) 0.
In
*
. . al robabilities P(A
fact, the conditionth P tu of the samI B) and P(B I A) dep end upo n the natu re
ple space S of the rand om experiment. of events
A and B and also on e na
re
. Let S be the sam ple spac e co: is
likely n outc ome s of a rand0m P
and t be the num ber of outcomes
A r"'t B respectively, then
· ting of equally
eriment. Let A
and B be two eve nts of the sam ple spa_ 5 and a b
ce A B ~d
m '
A
ffi
An B

a t b
B
S

t
P(..\) = !!.., P(B) = !?.. and P(A (\ B) = ;·
n . n hich are favourable to A are the common
that the outc ome s of B w outcomes of A and
outc ome s of A( \ B. f
f tcomes avourable to AnB =-
t
num ber o ou favourable to B
num ber of outcomes b

\
 ING !SC MATHEMATICS - XII (II)
UNDERSTAND .
• al rnber of outcomes m the
A-980 . b O (5), the tot nu
Dividing both nume rator and denom inato r Y
·
Sdmph~ spare, we get

P(A I B) = '' P(An B)

!!_ = P(B)
n

So P(A I B) = P(An B) P(B) * o.

P(B) '

s·1mil arI y, P(B I A)= P(AnB ) P(A)

P(A) ,
-1:- o.

) = 0 then B is an impo ssibl e event,

REMARKS * 0. If P(B .'
1. In defining P(A I B), we assume that P(B)
Id be mean ing1ess.
h
so the assum ption that B as occurre ~ou
d . ts of e ually likely outco mes, then
cons1s 'th q ct to the redu ced sample
2. If the samp le space Sofa rando m experiment (A) wt respe S
in calculating P (A I B), we basically calculate P
le space ·
space B, rathe r than with respect to the original samp
3. P(A IS) = P(A n S) = P(A) = P(A)
P(S) 1

4. P(AI A) = P(An A) = P(A) = 1

P(A) P(A)

5. P(S I A)= P(Sn A) = P(A) = 1

P(A) P(A)
not cons ist of equa lly likel y outcomes,
If the sample space Sofa random experimnrt does
then we define P(A I B) as
P(A I B) = PU n B) P(B) ~ 0.
P(B) '

P(B I A) = · P(A n B) P(A) ~ O

Similarly, P(A) , .

y
10.2.1 Some prop erties of cond itiona l probabilit
Property 1. The conditional probability of an event
A given that B has occurred lies between
0 and 1.
Proof. We know that A n B c B
P(A (") B) S P(B)
P(An B) S l
(if P (B) .e 0)
P(B)

~ P(AI B) s 1.
Also, P(A (") B) c!: 0 and P(B) > O
P(An B) c!: O
P(B)

P(AI B) ~ 0
0 S P (A I B) s 1.

Property 2. If A and B art any hvo events ~ t t d .th 11 e5

and F is Rn tvent such that P(f) o, then * un 'andom ttpm rntnt .
having sample spac '
p (A u B IF) = p (A I f} P (
-· . . +. BIF) -P(A f'\ Blf).
Jn p,,rticular, if A ,nd B art disjoint events, then
P(A U B I F) = P(A I f) + P(B IF).
 paoBABD.JTY
A-981
p,:oof. P(A u BI F) = P((AuB)nF)
P(F) ... (i) 'l
Now, by distnoutive law of .
p ((A U B) n union of sets over intersection,
F) = p ((A () F) U (B () F))

tti thi al = p (A () F) + p (B () F) - p (A () B () F)
Pu ng s v ue of p (A u B) () F) m
. ( .)
z, we get
p (A u BI F) = P(AnF) + P(BnF) P((AnB)nF)
P(F) P(F) - P(F)
= P(AIF) + P(BIF)- P(A () BIF).
When A and B are disjoint events, then A () B = 4>,
so P (A n B I F) = O
=> P (A U B I F) = p (A I F) + p (B I F).
Property 3. P (A' I B)' = 1 - P (A I B).
Proof. P(S I B) = P(SnB) = P(B) -
P(B) P(B) - l
=> P (A U A' I B) = 1
(·:S = A U A')
=> P (A I B) + P (A' I B) = 1
( ·: A and A' are disjoint)
=> P (A' I B) =1 - P (A I B)

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLES
Exunple 1. Compute P (A I B) if P(A () B) = 0.32 and P(B) = 0.5 (NCERD
Solution. P(A I B) = P(A n B) = 0.32 = 32 = 16 = 0.64
P(B) 0.5 50 25
Example 2. A and B are two events such P(A) ~ 0, find P(B/A) if
(i) A is a subset of B (ii) A n B = 4>. (NCERD
Solution.(,) As A is a subset of B, so An B = A.
·; _. • ' • ·_ P(A n B) = P(A) = 1.
• ~ P(B I A) - P(A) P(A)
(ii) Given An B = ♦ ~ P(A () B) = 0,
• P(AnB) = _o_ = o.
•• P(B I A) = P(A) P(A)

'-npte 3. If P(A) = 0.8, P(B) = 0.5 and~= O.~, then find . ,. -

(r) P(A n B) (ii) f(A I B) (m) P(A U B} . (NCE_RD
P(AnB)
Salation. (1) We know that P(B I A) = p (A)
I ,
,/ A

P(AnB) ~ P(A () B) = 0.4 x 0.8 = 0.32

~ 0.4 = 0.8 .
rc~ ~ '- ~ t\11)
(ir1 P(A I B) = ~)B) =~~ =: = 0.
64 I fl t ,!, )

Now P(A U 8) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A () B)

== 0_8 + o.~ _ 0.32 -::: o.98
• 7
, 6 P(B),. .! 1111d P(A U B) :a "tt · ti,~ -- fit,d
(A) - - , 11 • . .
I)
11 (i1)·P~I B)
,. 1ruJlrj
V"• f j (.'-;CERn
 DING ISC MATHEMATICS- xn (II)
UNDERSTAN
A-982

Solution. (i) P(A U B) • P(A) + P(B) - P(A ('I B)

4
~ 2. = ~ + ~ - P(A ('I B) ~ P(A (') B) • 11'
11 11 ll
4
(ii) P(A I B) • P(AnB) = .ll a .!.
P(B) 5 5
11
4 """(t,.) -:.5..
't" k.., I~
(iii) P(B I A) - P(A n B) = ll = .! = !. . (I (/it' ,, e
P(A} 6 6 3 >--
11 ' 2.'
E/. . ·/
Emluate P(A .U B) -~ ~ P(A) "" P(J!)_=
5 ',
13 :nd ~
(AIB)-3.
- _} ·.
(NCERD

Solution. Given P(B) = ~, P(A IB) = !. and

. 13 . 5 .

2P(A) = P(B) ~ P(A) = .l-r(B) = .!..~ = ~-

2 2 13 26 _

We know that P(A I B) = P~~t) .t, ~ .-··:~_'.: :\.' ~

• -'
/ 1' ,,

.)

5 2 2
~ P(A () B) = P(B) . P(A I B) = . = .
13 5 13
Now P(A U B)
' .
= P(A) + P(B) -
=
- ·-
5
26
5
-+---=---=-
13
-2
13
-
P(A 11 B)
5+10-4
26
11
26
Example 6. If A and B are two events associated with same .....,. random experiment such that P(A) = 0.4,
P(B) = 0.8 and P(B I A) = 0.6, then find P(A I B), P(A U B) and P (B I A).
Solution. Given P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.8 and P(B IA) = 0.6 () . b .:: 1,\-
P(AnB)
Using P(B I A) = P(A) , we get
O ·tc,t
P(A ('I B) = P(A) . P(B I A) = (0.4) (0.6) = 0.24
t\Vt> >• fJ7 v ·B-t0·" -o ·Vf
P(A jB) = P(AnB) = 0.24 = 0_3
P(B)
,.) .' ,
0.8

Also
P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A 11 B) = 0.4

P (B I A) = P(B n A)
P(A)
+ 0.8 - 0.24
-
= 0.96
.
Now P(A) =1- P(A) =1 - 0.4 = 0.6, and
'
P(B () A) = P(AUB) = 1 - P(A U B) = 1 - 0.96 == 0.04
. P(B I A) • P(BnX) = 0.04 = ..!.
~., P(A) 0.6 15 '

Exa~ 7. If A and B are events such that P(A) • l, p (B) ,. .! and p (A I"\ 1 d.
2 3 • , , B) • - , then fin •
(i) p (A I B) (ii) P(B I A) (iii) p (A' I B) (iv) p (A'~ B')

(NCERT Exemplar)
1
P(AnB) ,i 3
P(B) • 1 = 4'
Solution. (i) P(A IB) •
3
~ 'ronii,
~,
• ,.1 1 \ 'K°pt.._µti)
1.. ';- --=i.. \-~~B
r
pROBABILITY
A-983
1
(11") P(BIA) = P(AnB) = 4_1
P(A) .!_ - 2·
2
(iii) We know that P(A' I B) • l _ P(A I B)
(Property 3)
~ P(A' I B) = 1 - ~ = !
4 4·
(iv) To find P(A' IB'), we need P(A' ri B').

Now P(A U B) = P{A) + P(B} _ P(A ri B) = .!_ + .!_ _ .!_ = .z_.

2 3 4 12
P(A' n B') = P((A U B}') ·= 1 - P(A U B) = 1 - .z_ = ~.
12 ,12
P(B') = 1 - P(B) = 1 - .!. = 3.
3 3. I
5
P(A' I B') = P(A' nB') = 12 = ~ x ~ _ i
P(B') 3_ 12 12 - 8
3 .

Exam~ If A and B are two events associated with the same random experiment such that

P(A U B) = 43 , P(A n B) = 41 and P(A):::

- 2
, then find :
t t CA1 ,z,1-1 ~ j
3
~
--q·
. . J.J .I f (4) ... +.,
(0 P(B) (ii) P(A I B) . ·(iii) P( A n B). ,.

Solution. Given P(A U B)

·. 3
= , P(A II B) =
1 . -
and P(A):::
2
. ~ n r, )1) t ~-A)
4 4 3
- · 2 · 2 1
(,) P (A) = ⇒ 1 - P (A) =
⇒ P (A) = .
3 3 3
Now P(A u B) . = P(A) + P(B) - P(A n B)
3 1 ) 1
~ 4 = 3 + P(B - 4
3 1 1 2
P(B) = 4+4-3=3·
1
P(AnB) _ 4 =I
(it) P (A I B) = P (B) - 3_ B ·
3
(iii) From the adjoining Venn diagram,
we have
B = (A n B) U (B - A)
P(B) = P((A () B) U (B - A)) Ans
P(B) =P(Af1B)+P(B-A)) ( ·: A n B and B - A are mutually disjoint)

2 _ 1 P(B...: A)
~ 3-4+
2 1 5
=- P (B - A) = 3 - 4 = 12

- 5 (·: P(B - A)= P(B ri A))

P(A n B) • ii
1 1
C have probabilities !5 , -3 and - respectively. Given that
Pie 9. Three events A, B and 2
1 the find .
{.,if'"lC) • .!andP(Bf1C)•7, n · , I
5 (A'() C') (iii) P(A' IC') (NCERT Exemplar)
(i) P(C I B) (ii) p

i.
A-984 UNDERSTANDING ISC MATHEMATICS-XII tn)

1
Solution. (i) P(C I B) = P(BnC) _ 4 _ I
P(B) -T- 4.
3
( . ") P( ) 2 1 1 _ 7
5 +2-5-
11 AU C) = P(A) + P(C) - P(A II C = 10·
7 3
P(A' ft C') = P((A U C)') = 1 - P(A U C) = 1 -
10
= 10 ·
(iii) P(C') =1 - P(C) = 1 - _! = .!.
2 2
3
P(A' 1C') = P(A'nC') = 10 = I.
. P(C') ½ 5

Exam 10% of the bulbs produced in a factory are of red co~our a_nd 2% a~e re_d ~n~ defective. If
is picked up at random, determine the probability of its being defective if it is red.
(NCERT Exemplar)
Solution. Let A be the event of that bulb is of red colour and B be the event of bulb being
defective, then we want to find P(B I A). •
' ► 10 1
- Given P(A) .= 10% =-=-and
,\ ., 100 10
P(A_() B) = probability of bulb of red colour and defective
2 1 ·
'\ 2% = - = - .
100 50
1
P(B IA) P(A n B) _ 50 _ 1
P(A) - l - 5
10

Example 11. In a certain school, 20% of the students failed in English, 15% of the students failed in
Mathematics and 10% of the students failed in both English and Mathematics. A student is selected
at random. If he failed in English, what is the probability that he also failed in Mathematics?
Solution. Let events A and B be defined as follows:
A = student failed in English and
B = student failed in Mc\thematics.
Given P(A) = 20% = 0.2, P(B) = 15% = 0.15 and P(A () B) = 10% = 0.l
We want to find P(B I A).

Now P(B I A) = P(BnA) = O.l = _! = 0.5

P(A) 0.2 2

Example 12. In a college, _70% students pass in Physics, 75% pass in Mathematics and 10% students Jail
in both. One student is chosen at random. What is the probability that : 0

(i) He passes in Physics and Mathematics.

(ii) He passes in Mathematics given that he passes in Physics.
(iii) He passes in Physics given that he passes in Mathematics.
(ISC 2014)
Solution. Let events A and B be defined as follows:
A = student passed in Physics and
B = student passed in Mathematics.

Given, P(A) = 70% = :o' P(B) = 75% = ¾and P(A n B) = 10% = ..!..
10.
 A-985
~oSABn.rn'
- - 1 It
(i) Now P(A II B) = => P(AUB) = _!_
10 10
=> 1 - P(A U B) = 1~ => P(A U B) = _2._.
10
We know that P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) _ P(A II B)
9 7 3
=>
10
=
4 - P(A II B)
10
+

=> P(A n B) = 2. + ~ _ _2._ _ 14 + 15 - 18 11

10 4 10 - 20 = 20

Hence, the probability of the student passing• in Physics and Mathematics = .!.!...
20
11
(ii) Required probability= P(B I A) = P(B nA) = 20
P(A) !_
10
11 10 11
= -X-=-
20 7 14.
11
(iii) Required probability = P(A I B) = P(A nB) = 20
P(B) I
4
11 4 11
~ . . ~ 20X3=15. . . .
Example 13. A die is thrown twice and the sum of the numbers appearing zs observed to be 7. What zs
the conditional probability that the number 2 has appeared atleast once?
Solution. The sample space S has 36 equally likely outcomes.
Let A = event that sum is 7 = {(l, 6), (2, 5), (3, 4), (4, 3), (5, 2), (6, 1)}
and B = event that 2 appears atleast once
= {(2, ·1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6), (1, 2), {3, 2), (4, 2), (5, 2), (6, 2)}
So A II B = {(2, 5), (5, 2)}
6 1 11 ) 2 1
•. P(A) = 36 = 6' P(B) = 36' P(A nB = 36 = 18.

We want to find P(B I A).

1
- 6 1
P(B I A) = P(A nB) = .1§_ =- =- .
P(A) _!_ 18 3
6
Example 14. Ten cards numbered 1 to 10 are p_Iaced in a box, and o~e card is dr~~n randomly. If it is
known that the number on the card drawn is more than 3, what is the probability that it is an even
. number? , (NCERT)
Solution. Let A be the event 'the.number on the card drawn is even', and B be the event that 'the
number on the card drawn is more than 3', we want to find P (A I B).
Here, sample space S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 61 7, 81 9, lO}, which has 10 equally likely outcomes.
A = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10} and B = {4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}
n(A) 5 1 ) n(B) 7
Also P (A) = -;;Ts)= 10 = 2' P(B = n(S) = 10.
A II B = {4, 6, 8, 10},
n(AnB) 4
P (A II B) = n(S) = 10.
4 I '

P(AnB) _ 10 _ _!
p (A I B) = p (B) - T - 7 .
10
 UNDERSTANDING ISC MArnE MA
A-986 TICS-XU mi

Alte rna tive ly

th . n' and B be the eve nt tha t 'the
Let A be the event 'the nu~ ber d dra wn is eve
on e c; We wan t to find P(A
num ber on the card drawn 1s mor I B).
e than
Then A = {2, 4, 6, 8, 10} and -
B = {4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10}.
t
Since the original sample space h ally likely ou com es and B has 7 out com es, out of
as equ t A therefore
which 4 outcomes (viz. 4, 6, 8, 10)
are_ favourab 1e O ~er on the car
P(A I B) = probability of getting d wh en the car d drawn
an even mun
has a number greater than 3
4
-
7
Example 15. Two coins are tossed once
. Determine P(E I F) if .
@ (i) E : tail appears atleast on one
(n..) E : no tai·1 appears, F -: no hea d
coin, F : atleast one com shows head
appears.
Solution. Here sample space S = . (NCERD
{HH, HT, TH, TI}, which has fou
(i) Now r equ ally like ly outc omes.
E = {HT, TH, TI}, F = {HH, HT,
TH},
E 11 F = {HT, TH}
2
P(EnF) 4 2
P(E IF) = P(F) = l = 3.
4
Alternatively
Here, E = {HT, TH, TI} and F =
{HH, HT, TH}.
We note tha t <~mt of 3 outcomes
of F, two outcome s HT, TH of Far e fav our abl e to
E.
P(EIF) = 2 .
3
(ii) Here E = {HH}, F = {TI}, E n F = <I>,
so P(E IF) = P(EnF) = _Q_ = 0
P(F) 1 .
4
Example 16. A coin is tossed three
times. Find P(E I F) if
(i) E : heads on third toss, F : head
s on first two tosses
(ii) E : atleast two heads, F : atmost
two heads
(iii) E : atmost two tails, F : atleast
one tail.
Solution. When a coin is tossed (NCERT)
' .
3 times, then the sample spa
S = {~ , HHT, HTH,·HTI, THH, ~
THT, TTH, ffi} .
It consists of 8 equally likely outc
omes.
(i) E = {HHH, HTH, THH, TIH
} and
F = {fIHH, HHT}.
We note that out of 2 outcomes
of F, the only outcom
l .
:. P(E IF) = . e lilffi of F lS favourable to E,
2
(ii) E = {HHH, HHT, HTH, THH}
F = {HHT, HTH, HIT , THH, THT
and
, ITH , TIT}.
We not e tha t out of 7 outcome
s of F thre e
favourable to E.
' outcomes HHT, HrH, THH of F are
:. P(E IF) = .3
7
(iii) E = {HHH, ID-ff, HTH, HT I,
THH, THT, ITH} and
F = {HHT, HTH, HT I, THH, THT
, ITH, lTf}. _
 1,,
I

f!!OBABILITY A-987
of note favourable
WeFare 7 outcomes
that out of to E. of F s1X· t HHT HTH HTI THH THT, ITH
.
0
, u comes , , , '
:. P(E I F) == ; .

...r...l, i1. A fair die is rolled. Consider events E = {l, 3, 51, F = 12, 3} and G= {2, 3, 4, 5}. Find
~:~Ji) J(E IF) and P ~ (ii) P(EI G) and PW)
~ l.t u F_lg)__ond p (E n FIG)
. ~
""""'"' ~ (NCERT)
Solution. When a fair die is rolled, then sample space s = {!, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
It consists of six equally likely outcomes.
Given E == {1, 3, 5}, F == {2, 3} and G = {2, 3, 4, 5}
=> P(E) = ¾=½, P(F) =¾=½and P(c) = ¾=¾
(i) Here E n F = {3} ~ P(E n F) = 1 .
1
6
P(E IF) = P(EnF) = 6 == .!_.
P(F) .!_ 2'
3
1
. P(E nF) _ 6 _ .!_
P(F I E) = P(E) - ! - 3
·

2
·
(ii) Here E n G = {3, 5} => P(E n G) = 62 = 31
1
P(E nG) _ 3 _ .!_ •
P(E I G) = P(G) - I- 2'
3
.1
-
P(EnG) _ ]_ 2
= -.
P( G I E)_ = P(E) - .!_ 3
2
( . 5} d G = {2, 3, 4, 5}. ·
...)
ur We H E U F = {l, 2, 3, an - - ....
erenote that out 0-f 4 outcomes of G, 3 outcome s (viz 2
· , 3, 5) of G are favourable to
EUF.
3
· . P(E U FI G) = -4 ·
.. · · 4 5}
2 3
Also E n F = {3} and C = 1 , • ' of· C, 0 nI Y one outcome 3 of C is favourable to
outcomes
We note that out of 4 .
EnF.
. 1
:. P(E n FIG)= 4 ·

Alternatively => P((E U F) /"I .G) = ¾= ½,

Here (EU F ) n G = {2, 3, 5}
1
' - 3
P((EUF)nG) = ~ =4;
P(E U FIG)= P(G)
3
1
P( (E n F) n G) = 6,
and (E n F) n G = {3} ==> 1

p((EnF)nG) = -~ =41
P(E n FIG)= P(G) 3

• I
 •' , G 1sc MATHEMATICS -XII (II)
• UNDERSTANDIN .
\ ~ girl If a family has two
/· .
pie 18. Assume that each child born is .
children, then what 1s the conditional prob
uall likely .to be _boy
eq. . Ythat both are agirls or:;,
, gt .
t~t
' ability •is a girl?
( ') he t . . .
1 t younges is a gir1 (ii) atleast one - th first item in a pau
Solu tion . The sam ple spac e S = {(b, (g )} where e den otes
b), (b, g), (g, b), ' g '
you nge r child. S has four equ ally
likely outc ome s.
Let A be the eve nt that bot h are girls
, so A= {(g, g)}.
(i) Let B = you nge st is a girl, then
B = {(g, b),_ (g, _g)}. -
We wan t to calculate P(A I B).
'
n B = {(g, g)}.
A
1
P(A n B} = , P(B) = 1 ·
4 2
.1
:. P(A IB) =
P(A nB) _ 4 _ .!_
P(! ) - .!. - . ·
3 2
.. 2 -
(ii) Let C = atle ast one is a ·giri, thei:
.' C =: {(b, g), ~ (g! ~-
We' wan t to ·calculate P(A IC).
• ·-~-
A n C = {(g, g) l.

P(A n C) = 41 , P(C) = 43 ·
1
. P(A I C)
..
= P (An C) = 4 =.!. .
P(C ) 3 3
.
,\ ~ p i e 19. A pair of die, is thro
wn :nd the product of tht numbm is obse
~r ob ab ili ty that both dice have com rved to be tven . What is tit,
e up with even numbns?
Solution. Wh en a pair of dice is thro
wn, the sam ple spac e has 36 equ ally
Let A be the eve nt 'pro duc t of num like ly out com es.
ber is eve n' and B be the eve nt' bot
eve n', then h the num bers are
A = {(1, 2), (1, 4), (1, 6), (2, 1), (2,
2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6),
(3, 2), (3, 4), (3, 6), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4,
3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6),
(5, 2), (5, 4), (5, 6), (6, 1), (6, 2), (6,
3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6)} and
B = {(2, 2), (2, 4), (l, 6), (4, 2), (4,
4), (4, 6), (6, 2), (6, 4), (6, 6)}.
Not e that out of 27 outc ome s of A,
9 outc ome s of A are favourabl t
e o 8.
P(B I A) = ~ = ½·
Example 20. A black and a red die are
rolled.
(i) Find the conditional probability of
resulted in a 5. obtaining a sum greater than . .
(ii) Find the conditional probability
9, giv m that tht black die
of obtaining the sum .
number less than 4. 8 (NCERn
' groen that t~ red die resulted in
Sol utio n. (i) Let S = {(x, y) : x is a a
num ber on the blac k die and .
then the sample space consists of 36 · (NC E~n
equally likely out Y 18 a num ber on the r~d d1el ,
Let A be the eve nt 'sum is grea ter than
9' i.e. the ~e s.
blac k die resu lted in a 5', then
sum 18 lO, 11 or 12, and B be the even
A = {(4- 6), (6, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6), (6, 5), (6, 6)} and t'
8 = {(5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5,
5), (5, 6)}.
We note that out of 6 outc ome s of
B 2 outc o (
A. · 5
' rnes ' S) and (5, 6) of B are favo
:. P(A I B) • 2 1 urable to
6 • 3.
pROBABILITY A-989

(ii) ~Bt'Athbe the event 'red die resulted in a number less than 4' and B be ilie event 'sum
1s , en
A = {(1, l), (1, 2), (i, 3), (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3),
4
( , l), (4, 2), (4, 3), (5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3)}
and B = {(2, 6), (6, 2), (3, 5), (5, 3), (4, 4)}.
We note that out of 18 outcomes of A, 2 outcomes (6' 2) and (5' 3) of A are favourable
to B.
P(B I A) = 2._ = ~
18 9.

Example 21 · Given that the numbers appearing on throwing two dice are different. Find the probability
of the event 'the sum of the numbers on the dice is 4'. . (NCERT)
Solution. When two dice are thrown, the sample space consists of 36 equally likely outcomes. Let
A be the event 'the numbers appearing on the two dice are different' and B be the event 'the
sum of numbers on the dice is 4', then
A = {(l, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6), (2, 1), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6),
(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 5), (4, 6),
(5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 6), (6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, S))
and B = {(1, 3), (3, 1), (2, 2)).
We note that out of 30 outcomes of A, two outcomes (1, 3) and (3, 1) are favourable to B.
1
:. P(BIA) = -2= - .
30 15
Example- 22. Three dice are thrown at the same time. Find the probability of getting three two's, if it is
known that the sum of numbers on the dice was six. (NCERT Exemplar)
Solution. When three dice are thrown, the sample space has 6 x 6 x 6 i.e. 216 equally likely
outcomes. Let A be the event getting three two's and B be the event the sum of numbers on
dice is six, then
A = ((2, 2, 2)) and B = {(1, 2, 3), (1, 3, 2), (2, 1, 3), (2, 3, 1), (3, 1, 2), (3, 2, 1), (2, 2, 2),
(1, 1, 4), (1, 4, 1), (4, 1, 1)).
Note that out of 10 outcomes of B only one outcome i.e. (2, 2, 2) is favourable to A,

so P(A I B) = 1
~ .

Example 23. A die is thrown three times. Events A and B are defined as belo~ :
A, : 4 on the third throw
B : 6 on the first and 5 on the second throw.
(NCERT)
Find the probability of A given that B has already occurred.
Solution. The sample space S has 6 x 6 x 6 == 216 equally likely ou_tcomes.
(1, 1, 4) (1, 2, 4), ... (1, 6, 4),}
(2, 1, 4) ... (2, 6, 4),
Now A has 36 outcomes, A = { ... . .. ... ,
(6, 1, 4) ... (6, 6, 4)-

B has outcomes, B = {{6, 5, 1), (6, 5, 2), (6, 5, 3), (6, 5, 4), (6, 5, 5), (6, 5, 6)},
6
A nB = {(6, 5, 4)}

n(B) = _!_, P(A n B) = n(AnB) = _1_

P(B) = n(S) 216 n(S) 216
1
P(AnB) 216 1 •
\ P(A IB) = P(B) = -6- = 6

II 216

)
I
A-9 90 UNDERSTANDING ISC MATHEM
ATICS-XU (II)
Example 24. A die is thrown three
times. Events A and B are defined as
below :
A : 5 on the first and 6 on the seco
nd throw.
B : 3 or 4 on the third throw.
Find the probability of B, given that A
. has already occurred.
Solutio n. The sam ple space S has 6 x 6
x 6 i.e. 216 equ allY l'k
1 e ly out com es. The n
A = {(5, 6, 1), (5, 6, ), ( , ,
2 5 6 3), (5, 6, 4), (5, 6, 5), (5, 6, 6)} whi ch has
B : 3 or 4 on the thir d throw, 6 out com es and
so B has 72 outcomes.
We nee d P(B I A).

6 1
p (A) = 216 = 36 ·

B nA = {(5, 6, 3), (5, 6, 4)}, so P (B (J A)

=
2 1
=
216 108 ·
1
P(B I A) = P(B nA) = 108 = .!..
P(A ) 1 3
36
Example 25. A die is thrown 3 time
s, if the first throw is a four, then find
as a sum. the -probability of getting 15
Solution, Let S be the sam ple spa
ce asso ciated wit h the
ran dom exp erim ent of thro win
3 times, the n S has 6 x 6 x 6 i.e. g a die
216 equally likely elementary eve
the eve nts def ine d as : nts (ou.tcomes). Let A, B be
··
A = getting 15 as the sum in a thro
w of dice three times,
B = gett ing 4 on the first throw.
The n B has 1 x 6 x 6 i.e. 36
equally likely outcomes, out of
(4, 5, 6) and (4, 6, 5) are favourable wh ich onl y two outcomes
to A.
.
Req uire d probability = P(A I B)
= probability of getting 15 as the
first thro w sum if the re is a 4 on the

2 1
= -=-
36 18
Example 26. Mother, father and son
line up at random for a family picture
F · Father in 1:Jid~, then determin e P(E I F). I[f E . d d
. . · son on one en ' Rann
Solution. Let M, F and S den ote
d mother, father and son resp e
. (NCE
sam ple spa ce = {MFS, MSF, FM t· th
S, FSM, SFM, SMF}. c 1ve1y, en
It has six equally likely outcomes.
.
Her e, E =
son on one end = {SMF, SFM, MF
S, FMS} and
F =
father in the mid dle = {MFS, SFM
}
We wa nt to calculate P(E IF).
E n F = {MFS, SFM},

P(E n F) = 2 1
= 2 1
6 3 and P(F) = 6 = 3 .

1
p (E I F) = P (En F) = 3 = 1.
P(F) .!_

E$ 3

r,. /n a school, there are 1000 students, out

10% of the girls study in class XII. Wha
of which . ·
t is_ the probability430
t,:; e gtrls. It is brown that out of 430'.
in class XII given that the chosen student
is II girl? a shuknt chosen randomly stuJ1t')
(NCERn
. PROBABILITY A-1041

E3 = C is ~lect ed as manager and

E • radical change occurs in marketing strategy.
ger of a firm are in the ratio
As ththe chan ~s of A, B and C being sdected as the mana
4 : l : 2, erefore,

P(E,) = 4 + ~ + 2 • f, ~
P(E2) .., 4 + + 2 = f and ~
P(E3) = 4 + + 2 = f.
Given 0.3, P(E I E2) = 0.8, P(E I E3) = 0.5
P(E I E1) •
marketing strategy has occurred
We want to find the probability that the radical change in
due to the appointment of B i.e. we want to find P(E2 IE).
By Baye' s theorem, we have
P(E I E) = P (E2) P (E I E2)
2
P(E 1 )P(E I E1 ) + P(E 2 ) P(E I E2 ) + P(E 3 ) P(E I E3 )

!x o.8
--.-- --=:- -7--- --,,- -- = 0.8
i7 x 0.3 + ! x 0.8 + I x 0.5 1.2 + 0.8 + 1
7
7
0.8 8 4
= 3= 30 =15
Band C manufacture respectively 30%,
Example 12. Jn a factory which manufactures bolts, machines A,
tively are defective bolts. A bolt
50% and 20% of the bolts. Of their outputs 3, 4 and 1 percent respec
Find the probability that this is not
is drawn at random from the product and is found to be defective.
manufactured by machine B.
Solution. Let Ei, E2, E3 and A be the events as define
d as follows :
E1 = bolt is manufactured by machine A
E2 = bolt is manufactured by machine B
E3 = bolt is manufactured by machine C
A = a defective bolt is drawn
so 5 1 20 2 1
= 3 o% =
30
100 =
3
10' P(E2) =SO%= 100 = 10 =2' P(E3) = 20% = 100 = 10 =5'
P(E1)
3 4 1
P(A IE1) = 3% = 100 , P(A IE2) = 4% = 100 , P(A IE3) = 1% = 100 .
bolt is manufactured by
We want to find P(E2 IA) = probability that the defective
machine B.
By Baye's theorem, we have :
P(E 2 ) P(A I E2 )
P(E2 I A) = P(E 1).P(A I E1) + P(E 2 ) .P(A I E2 ) + P(E 3 ) .P(A I E3 )
1 4
2·100 - 20
= 3 3 1 4 1 1 - 31
10 · 100 + 2. 100 + 5. 100

Probability that defective bolt is not manufactured by mach

ine B = 1 - · ;~ = ;! .
are average and the rest below average
Example 13. In a class of 75 students, 15 are above average, 45
.1 achi8vers. The probability that an above averageofachiev ing student fails is Q.005, that an average
r achieving student fails is 0.05 and the probability a below averag
e achieving student failing is 0.15.
average achiever?
If a student is known to have passed, what is the probability that he is a below (ISC 2012)
Solution. Total numb er of students in the class = 75,
15.
the number of above average = 45, number of average =
:. The numb er of stude nts below average = 75 - 45 - 15
= 15.
 A-- 1042
ped as follows:
~ E, and A be the
Let E,, events defi
E, • stu de nt i-. aboV~ av era e achiever,
g
Ez • w de nt i5 average achiever,
achie"er an d
s: • stu de nt i~ be lo~
"-J
average
A • stu de nt h.1s P~ sed the exam, 15 - .!.. == 0.2
3 c \ - -
_ o.6 an d P{i.;,y - 75 - 5
45 .
The-n P(E ) • -J5 = -J • (i:- ) = - == 5 -
0.2, p ~ 75 ha us nv e.
75 s cl
mutually ex usiVe an d ex
,
i:- .
No te that ev en ts E,~ Ei
an d '"'.l are
P( A I Ei ) • J - 0.005 = 0. 995,
P( A f Ei) ,.. 1 - 0.05
= 0.95 a nd
P(A J £3'
~ 1 - 0.15 = 0.85~
We wa nt to find P(
~ I A).
By Saye' s theorem, we
ha ve
P(E3 ) P(A I £3 )
P(£, I A )= P(E1) P(A I P(A I E3 )
E1 )+ P(E2 ) P(A I E2)
+ P(E3)
0.2 X 0.85
= 0.2 X 0.995 + 0.6 X 0.95 + 0.2 X
0.S5
0.17 0.17 _ 170
= 0.1 99 +057 + 0.17 -0939- 939 ·
Eu m pl e 14. A bag con tai . _ balls are drawn on .
replaament. ns 3
green and 7_white balls. T~ e by one at random
If the second ball drawn ,s green, what ,s he obability that the first ball drawnwiisthout
gr em ? t pr also
SoJutioJL Le t E,, ~ and A be the events
as defined below :
£i = first ball dr aw n is green
Ei = first ball dr aw n is white,
an d
A = second ball dr aw n is gre
As the ba g co nta ins 3 en.
gr ee n an d 7 white balls
,
P(£i) = ~ and P( fi)
The second baJJ is dr aw
1 = :0 .
n from the ba g ~t ho
When Ei has occurred i.e ut re pl ac em en t
ou t of which 2 ar e gree . wh en a green ball has been
n an d 7 are white, so dr aw n, th en th e ba g
co nt ai ns 9 balls
P(A I E1) = probability
of drawing second
alr ea dy be en dr aw n gr ee n ba ll w he n on e
gr ee n ba ll has
=3. ~
9
When Ei has occurred i.e. wh en
9 ba lls ou t of wh ich 3 are gr ee n an da 6wh ite ball ha s been dr aw
ar e white, n th th b · on
P(A f E:z) = probability of 80 ' en e ag c tains
alr ea dy be en drdr aw in g second <n-een
aw n ba ll h
3
O" w en on e w hite b 11 has a
1
= 9= 3·
We wa nt to find P(£i
I A).
By Baye's theorem, we
have
P( fi IA) = P(E.i) P(A I E1)
PC£i) P( A I E ) + P(E
1 2 ) P(A I Ei )
3 2 2
 PROBABll.ITY A-1043
Example 15. Box I contains two white and three black balls. Box II contains /_our white and on..!E!ack ball
and ~ Ill contains 3 w7iite and ]our black balls. A dice having three red, two yellow and one green
P face, is thrown to select the box. If red face turns up, we pick up box I, if a yellow face turns up we
pick up box 11, otlrerwise, we pick up box Ill. Then we draw a ball from the selected box. If the ball
drawn is white, what is the probability that the dice had turned up with a red face? (ISC 2015)
Solution. Let the events E1, Ei, E3 and A be defined as follows:
Bi = box I is selected,
Ei = box II is selected,.
E3 . = box ill is selected and
A = the ball drawn from the 'selected box is white.

PC£i) = P(die turns up with red face) = I = .!. ,

· 6 2

P(Ei) = P(die turns up with yellow face)= ~ = .!. and

6 3

P(E:J = P(die turns up with green face)= .!..

6
P(A I £i) = drawing a white ball from box L which contains 2 white and 3 black balls
'
- s'2
P(A I Ei) = drawing a white ball from box II, which contains 4 white and 1 black ball

= -4 and
5
P(A IE:J = drawing a white ball from box Ill, which contains 3 white and 4 black balls '

= -3
7
We want to find P(E1 IA).
By Baye' s theorem, we have
P(E1)P(A I E1)

, 1 2 1
- x- -
2 5 = 5
=12 141 3 1 4 1
-x-+-x-+ - x - - +- +-
2 5 3 5 6 7 5 15 14
1
5 1 210 42
\S:/ 5 = 42 15 = X 133 = 113.

~ Thrtt bags ':':.'~2 number of red and white balls follows :

RS
g 3 rtd balls~ y: 0
3!ed and 1 white ball. Bag 3 : 3 ip_tiite balls.
•
1
~ ~ i t y that bag i will be chosen and a-~I-is select:rf;.;;,-it is ¼~hnt i = 1, 2, 3.
(i) What is the probability that II white ball is selected?
(ii) If II white ball is selected, what is the probability that it came from bag 2?
(NCERT Exentpl•)
Solution. Let Ei, ~ ~ and A be the events defined as follows :
£i=baglis~
Ez = bag 2 is c:ho6er\
E, • bag 3 is chosen and
A • white ball is selected.
•
A-1044 .J
·J p(E) "' 6·
2 d x}taustive.
Then . P(E1> • ¾,
r(E.i) • 6 an aJly exclusive a~ h econtains 3 red balls
d E are mutu 1 wh1c
Note that the even~ E11 Ei ~n . J •hite bJII (rom bag ' . red and 1 white
P(A I E ) • sdt'C'ttng a " . .L contains 2
i 2 whiCJ•
• O. . b II from bag ,
· a whM a
P(A I E.z) • selt:'Ctmg
b,111
l ~3~~b alls
• -. hich conta
3 . ball from bag 3, w
P(A I E3) • selecting a white
- 1. I I E,) + p(EJ P(A I E)
(i) P(A) = P(E1) P(A I E1) + P(E2) P(A 1- 11
2 1 3 O 1 +-==--
= ¾-
0 + 6 . 3 + 6 . 1 ::: + 9 2 18

(ii) We want to find P(Ei IA).

By Baye's theorem, we have
2 1
P(J;" I A) = P(E 2 ) P(A I E2) = 6.3 = ~-
~ P(A) .!..!. 1l
18
/ . red and 5 black balls. One ball
E<an I 17. Bag I contains 3 red and 4 black balls and bag II c0t1tams 4from bag n If the ball so drawn
is ansferred from bag I to bag II and then a ball is drawn. at random 'J
is red, then find the probability that the transferred ball is black.
Solution. Let E1, E2~ A be the events defined as follows:
' / E1 = black ball is transferred from bag I to bag Il,
E2 = red ball is transferred from bag I to bag Il and
A = red ball has been drawn from bag II.
4 3
=
7·
Then P(E1) = and P (E2)
7
When E1 has occurred i.e. when a black ball has been transferred from bag I to bag II, then
the bag II has 4 red and 6 black balls.
P (A I E1) = probability of drawing a red ball from bag II when E has occurred
1
4 2
= -=-
10 5
\
When E2 has occurred i.e. when a red ball has been transferred from bag I to bag II, then the
bag II has 5 red and 5 black balls. ~ ,"
P(A IE2) = probability of drawing a red ball from bag II when E has
5 1 2
oc~d '
= -=-.
10 2
We want to find P(E1 IA).
By Bay~'s theorem, we have
P(E1 IA) = p (E1) P (A I E1)
P(E1 ) P(A I E1 ) + P(E )P(A I E )
2 2
4 2
= 7. 5 8 70 16
4 2 3 1 =-X-=-
-.-+-.- 35 31 31
7 5 7 2
 / ,, A-1045

~~tfPJAtJe 18. Ba~ I contains 4 red and 5 black balls and bag II amtai~ 3 rtd and 4 black balls. One ball
; transferred from bag I to ba~ II and tl,rn two balls art drawn at random (without repfaament) from
5
bag II. TI1t balls ~ drawn art both found to bt blafk. Find tlit probability that the transferrtd ball was
blark.
Solution. Let E1, Ei and A be the event~ defined a~ follow5 :
E1 • n.·d ball i~ transforred from bag I to bag 11,
✓E 2 • blMk ball is tran~(crrcd from bag I to bag II and ·
A • two black bc1lls has been drawn from bag 11.
~ the bag 1 rontaim 4 n.~ and 5 black balls,
4 5
P(E 1) • 9, P(E 2) • ~.
When E1 has occu~ i.r. when a red bait has been transferred from bag I to bag Il, then
bag ll has 4 red and 4 black balls.
P(A I E1) • probability of drawing 2 black balls from bag II when £i has occurred
• ~=~xg=~
8 c2 1.2 8 .7 14
When~ has occurred i.t. when a black ball has been transferred from bag I to bag II, then
bag Il has 3 red and 5 black balls. · ·· ------
P(A I£i) = probability of drawing 2 black balls from bag II when £i has occurred
5 C2 5.4 1.2 5
= -=-x-=-
8C2 1.2 8.7 14
We want to find P(E2 I A).
By Baye' s theorem, we get
P(E2IA) = ( ~(Ez)P(AIE2~
P E1) P(A I E1) + P(E2) P(A I E2 )
5 5
= 9·14 =~= 25 L L-
i ]_ ~ ~ 12 + 25 37 . 'h_. J
9·14 + 9'14 ~
~ 19. A bag conta.i,ns 4 halls. Two ~alls are d'rawn at random and are fo~nd to be white. What is
obability that all oalls are white?
Solution. Let El' E2, E3 and A be the events defined as follows :
p E1 = the bag contains 2 white balls and 2 non-white balls
£i = the bag contains 3 white balls and one non-white ball
W'= the bag contains all tour white balls and
,-------- VA = two white balls have been drawn from the bag.

Then P(E1) = ½, P(E2) = ½, P(E:J =½

P(A I E1) = probability of drawing 2 white balls when E1 has occured i.e. the bag
contains 2 white and 2 non-white balls
2
c 1
= ~=-
4C2 6
P(A I Ez) = proba.bility of ~rawing 2 white balls when Ez has occured i.e. the bag
contains 3 white and one non-white balls
= : C2 = 3. 2 x 1. 2 =_!.
and
C2 1.2 4.3 2 _
P(A I E:J = probability of drawing 2 white balls when E3 has occured i.e. the bag
contains all four white balls
4C2 - 1
= 4
C2
-

We want to find P(E3 I A).

F · C MATHEMATICS-XII (II) .
UNDERSTANDING rs
A-1046

By Baye's theorem, we get P(A IE ) -)

P(E,) 3 p(E ) p(A I E3
P(E3 I A) • -P-(E-1)-P-(A-.l-::E--:-1)-+~PTr;(E~;)~P~(A~l~E2) + 3

1
- X 1 1
3 "" 1 1
• 1 1 1xt+ ..!. x1 - + -2+1
3x6 +3 2 3 6
1 6 3
a -a-=-•
10 10 5
6

Hence, the required probability = ¾•

~0- Coloured baII s are d.IS trt·bUted in four boxes as fol/mos :
Colour -
Box Red Blue
Black White
4 5 6
I 3
2 2 2
II 2
2 3 1
Ill 1
IV 4 3 1 5

A box is selected at random and a ball is drawn. If the colour of the ball is black, what is the
probability that ball drawn is from the box Ill? ·· . ·· · (NCERT)
Solution. Let E1, E2, E31 E4 and A be the events defined as follows :
E1 = box I is chosen,
E2 = box II is chosen,
E3 = box III is chosen,
E4 = box IV is chosen and
A = ball draw is. black.
As a box is selected at random,

. . . .

Box I contains 3 black, 4 white, 5 red and 6 blue balls, so · · · . ·

the total number of ~~ls in box I = 3 + 4 + 5 + 6 = 18. · • ·
P(A IE1) =\ prob~bility of drawing a black ball when E1 has occurred -i.e. drawing
a black ball from box I · ·
3 1
18 =6.

Similarly, P(A I E2) = i = ¼, P(AI EJ = i and P(A IEJ =. ~.

1
By using law of total probability,
P(A) =I P(E;) P(A IE;) = .!. . .!. + .!. . .!. + ..!_ • .!. + .!_ _! -
4 6 4 4 4 7 4 . 13
= .!. (.!. + .!. + .!. +
4 6 4 7
-.!)
13
= .!. . 182 + 273 + 156 + 336
4 12 X 91 =-
947
.
. ~x~
We want to find P(E3 IA). ·
By Baye's theorem, we have :
1 1
P(E I A)
3
= P(E 3 ) P(A I E3 ) 4·7
------
1
= - X ~ _ 156
P(A)
~ 28 947 -947·
48x91
 A-1047
PR.~~ •
E x ~ · Coloured balls ort distributed i11 t/rrtt M~'l' os shin••• in tlrt fv//moing table: ,
Colour of balls
&g Rtd
Black W11ite
1 l 2 ~ ~- -
II 2 4 1
Ill 4 5 3 '
A bag is St"lt•ft(d at random and tl,n, hvo balls are drm<m,from the selected bag. Tirey happen to be
black and n-d. Wlll1t is the probabilit.1/ tl,at they Jun 1e come Jro,wt,ag l ?
Solution. Let E1, E,21 ~~d A be the events defined as follows :
U. = bag I is selected,
E2 = bag II is selected,
E3 = bag 111 is selected and
A = one black and one red ball has been drawn from the selected bag.
As the bags are selected at random,

P(E1) = P(E2) = P(E~ = ½.

Two balls are drawn randomly from the selected bag.
Total number of balls in bag I = 1 + 2 + 3 = 6.
P(A I E1) = probability of drawing one black and one red ball when bag I has been
selected
1
= c 1 x 3c 1 1x 3 1
6 C2 = 15 = s·
Total number of balls in bag II= 2 + 4 + 1 = 7.
P(A I E2) = probability of drawing one black and one red ball when bag II has
been selected
2C x 1C 2x1 2
= 1 1 =--=-
7 C2 21 21
Total number of balls in bag III = 4 + 5 + 3 = 12.
P(A IE3) = probability of drawing one black and one red ball when bag III has
been selected

=
4 c 1 x 3 c 1 =4-x -3 = 2-
12c2 66 n

We want to find P(E 1 IA).

By Baye's theorem, we have
P(Ei I A) = P(E 1) P(A I E1)
P(E 1 )P(A I E1 ) + P(E 2 )P(A I E2 ) + P(E 3 )P(A I E3 )

1 1
-x-
3 5
1 1 1 2 1 2
-x-+-x-+-x-
3 5 3 21 3 11
1 1
= 5 = 5
_!_ + 2_ + 2_ 231 + 110 + 210
5 2! 11 1155
1 1155 231
= -X--=-
5 551 ss1 ·
 ~r MATHEMATICS - Xll Ull
T~P"' ~
~~ J tirrtn and 11ot,s t~
A. l~n..o- l,. .Jti ~ • ""'" piMlht'1 II hrad o, l4iJ
" • 1 ..,,
ll. S"l'f'(W • ~rl ,,.,.._ • ,,, If tJ,t t" .
,,J J .f 5
I .,_,.-, '"''~ " . 1Jt.il 4',~ thrt'W " , , or
,..,,n
#ttT tr( ~ U .,J,t ~ • t 4, -~, 4W , . ~ : : , ;.. lltt f""'-'• •'!f 1 .
(
l4 ""'"'"""· If w rl-h!l,'lf'fl ~---,'."""" ,w,.J. ,
' ...,,, ,,,,. ,~' .... ft,fl,,,~ .
Solutioa. let E,. F.1 •nd A t-,.. d_. """"t- Jt-f,flf"lf I• dk>
l I '" thtt•W d
r, • itirf ~ I •"If
(l •
f • Ji-., an
u.
(
· ..1 . , _ , . 11

"-"' A
~l •
tt
-In ,.. p
..
•'I . . ~
dw ,t,ri Itri" ~.tc~th·
, t1' 1 <"' thnnY <'

(lfW t-,ad.

nt:1l * ! • ~! allll nt: l) • A' • J2 .

L- Mrnple ~pace for thi!
~ ·' h Um"" and trw. • t .
\\'ht-n f1 ha (t(natml th.:t ,ri,f t t ~ • c,\itt ,_ rl'f' I· Thu~ 9-1mple s pace con a,ns i-rn.
f"~iN'nC., UUUl turT, Hl1L trrf. TIUL THT. 11" ~ occur.t 3 times,
8 -...... 1Jv hk('f,· Nm~ Nt ,lf whi,h ~,-·dy cKW he'1 d L- E has alrectdy occurred
,,- . . ~d W~•• 1
:. 1'!\ t E,l • r,n,Nhtliry t'f ,tetting e,.Ktly one ,
.l
• i· le space tor this experiment
l\'htn E: h# "-""'rn-J. ttw girt ~~ a roin once and the samp
• {H. TI d h s:;- has aJready occurred
H ru l E2> • rmNbility of getting ~actly one hea W en ~

\,\-~ • -&nr kl find rt~ f A).

- I
-.
2

By~-.·, get
lhN"E'III. l\~
P(E )P(AIE 2 )
2
rtE.z tA) • P(E )P(AIE )+P(E 2 ) P(AIE2)
1 1
2 1 l
- 3. 2 = _j_ = .! )( 24 = ~.
13 2 1 I 1 3 1 1 1 1
#
~- .- + - .- - +-
3 8 3 2 8 3
..U~1119~ n. Titrrr ,rt thrtt coi'1s. Ont is a two-headed coin (having head on both faces), another is a
had °""
thtzt come, up htads 15% of lht times and third is also a biased coin that comes up tails
~ of Utt hmn. Ont of lht three coins is chosen at random and tossed, and it shows heads. What
If* pn:,bt,brl,ty lhlzl ii was the hl'<>-lrraded coin?
SoJatioiL Ld E~ ~ £, md A be t.he event as defined below :
£ 1 • two headed coin is selected,
Ez •
biased coin that comes up heads 75% times is selected,
E, • bia.,;ed coin that comes up tails 40% ti.mes is selected and
A • coin shows head on tossing.
Al • coin is 1el«tftf at random,
PCE1) • P(fi) • P(EJ • ¾.
P(A I E1) • probability of a head when E has occurred ; t
1 h · h
coin is selected · · w en a two eaded
- 1,
P(A I £i) • probability of a head when E2 has occurred i e wh . . .
aeJected that comes up heads 75 01. ti . · · en a biased com 1s
1° mes 1s selected
75 3
• rnn •, and
P(A IE,) • probability of a head when E3 has occurred I h .
selected that comes up tails 40% times is w. en a biased coin is
cted.t.
60 3 se1e heads 60% times ,.t.
= Ioff =J·
We want to find P(E1 I A).
 PROBABILITY A-1049

By Baye's theorem, we have :

P(E IA)
1
= P(E 1 ).P(A I E 1 )
P(E1).P(A I E1 ) + P(E 2 ).P(A I E 2 ) + P(E3).P(A I E3)
1
= 3.1 1
1 13 13= 3 3
1
3- +3•4+3·5 l+4+5
_ 1 20 '
\

- 20 + 15 + 12 = 47"
20
• A man is ~~own to _speak truth 3.,put of~ times. He throws a die and reports that it is a
d the probabzlzty that zt is actually a szx. · ~
Solution. Let E11 E2 and A be t ~ f i ~a ~ 'r--
E1 = die shows six i.e. six has occurred,
Ez = die does not show six i.e. six has not occurred and
A = the man reports that six has occurred.
We wish to calculate the probability that six has actually occurred given that the mcµ1 reports
that six occurs i.e. P(E1 I A). .
,~-,~- ~ • \ 'r',
" 1 '
Now, P(E1) = -, P(E2·) =· -5 1
6 6
P(A I E1) = probability that the man reports that six occurs given that six has
occurred ·
= probability that the man is speaking the truth = ~ and
4
P(A I E2) = probability that the man reports that six occurs given that six has not
occurred
= probability that the man does not speak truth = ..!. .
4
By Bayes' theorem, we have :
P(E IA)= P(E 1 )P(AIE 1 )
1
P(E 1 ) P(A I E1 ) + P(E 2 ) P(A I E2)
1 3
6 °4 3

d~.n
qi
kn~¼;o¾J·rtr::h
1 is 3 times out of 5 times. He thruws a die and reports that
is a number greater than 4. Find the probability that it is actually a number greater than 4.
Solution. Let E11 E2 and A be the events defined as follows : S" 1 b,
E1 = the die shows a number greater than 4,
E2 = the die does not show a number greater than 4 and ~ .~ >?::J .•
A = the man reports that the die shows a number greater than 4.
2 1 4 2
Then P(E1) = =
3 , P(E2) = = ·
6 3
6
We want to calculate that it is actually a number greater than 4 given that the man
reports that is a number greater than 4 i.e. P(E1 IA).
P(A I E1) = P(the man reports that the die shows a number greater than 4 given
that the di~ shows number greater than 4)_
·- - ~ P(the man speaks trtith) = ¾and - .- •
P(A I Ez) =P(the man reports the die shows a number greater than 4 given that
the die does show number greater than 4) · i

= P(the man tells lie) = 1 - P (man speaks truth)

3 2
- 1 - i=s··
 Jsc.; Mf'\111 . . • · - • • • - . , · l\fl (IJ
TANDlNG I
UNDERS

A-1050
By Baye's theorem. we have : F, ) l'(A t E ) )
P( , . ) ('(A I E2
P(E 1 I A) • -1'-(E-, )- P'""".'(A
-:-- I ~;7""'1')+
· -:-; - 1'(E1

-
1 _~
33 2 -r•J+4 7 '
3 .l ,d I

• t. + . iris and 50% of the students

ff,
rJ,~~,1{),~Y'
~ 26. It ;~ krMl'II
3 s , 3 5'101, . a certain college a~e
'""' 40''n of,,,,. :-twJ,.,,ls m bovc tlte median ~e,g
I
then what is the probability

~
i c tlrt' mtdi,m lw,:~1,1. lf 2/3 <>J fl,~ bc'Y~ are,nat•dinri height is .girl!_ ,
I I I l10 ,~
tlt,11 a r,1111i<>ml11 :-fltdl'1 :-lru 1!11 "'
bt'1ow
• '<.. 4
· c
Solution. Let the ·numlx-r of studl'nts be lOO. . _ 40 · '
. bee of gir1s -
As 40% of the ~tudcmts ,1re girls, so num
=> numtx>r of boys • 100 - 40 = 60. ~
Given ! of the boys are above median height ~ ._, "

=> ..!.
3
3

of the boys are below median height

. .
{y # ~ ·

=> .!. of the 60 i.e. 20 boys are below median height J.,O . ·
3 students are below median height
. .
As 50% of the students are below median height, so 50 #1o.J
:. Number of girls who are below median height = so - 20
Let Ei, £i and A be the events defined as follows :
V JI .

£i = a boy is selected,
J = a girl is selected and
A = selected student is below median height.
Given 40% of the students are girls, so 60% of the students are boys.
60 3 40 2
P(E 1) = 60% = = and P(E2) = 40% = = .
100 5
100 5
P(A I E1) = probability of a student below median height when E1 has occurred i.e.
when a boy is selected
= 31 and
P(A IE2) = probability of a student below median height when E has occurred i.e.
2
when a girl is selected .. \
30 3 "--,.. ,'~ ·
= 40 = 4· ',.
We want to find P(E2 IA).
By Baye's theorem, we have :
'P(E I A) . = . P(E2) P(A I E2)
2 P(E1) P(A I E1) + P(E2 ) P(A I Ez)
2 3 3
5'4 _....,......10___
f ,/
0
{
=
3 1 = ~x~- 3
5•3+f.¾ ¾+1~ 10 5 -5
.,.:J'1'ple 1J.:.. Assume that the chances of a patient having he .
,y: a meditation and yoga course ~ s the risk of heart a:t :~attack zs 40%, It is also assumed that
Orug reduces ii._ chan.:!. bu 2+2~- At a time, a patient ca:cc - JO% and the prescription of a certain
probabilities Ibis given ~hat after going through one of the se an one · with equa~
s!!ffers a heart attgd. Find the probability that the patientfol oP ions, e pa zen se ected at ,afii[om
lowed a course of d ·t . d .
Interpret the result and state which 0 1 th b me t ahon an yoga.
'J e a ove stated method .
s zs more beneficial for the patient.
(Value Basetl>
 A-1051
PROBABILITY
events defined as folJows :
Solution. Lf E1, E2 and A be the
a,
p 1 = per
son ado pts Me dita tion and Yog
of dru g and
E2 = per son ado pts prescription
rt attack.
A = per son selected suffers hea

P(E1) = P(E2) = i.
dru gs red uce the risk of
dita tion and Yoga red uce the risk of hea rt attack by 30% and
As Me
hea rt attack by 25%.

:. P(A I E1) = 70% = 2Q_ = 2. and P(A I E2) = 75% = ~

100
= ~.
4
100 10
hea rt atta ck after
We wan t to find P(E 1 I A) = probability of a patient wh o sufferedYoga.
and
following course of Meditation
By Baye's theorem, we hav e :
1 7 7 7

P(E I A)
.
1
= P(E 1)P( A I E1)
I:P( E;) P(A IE;) 1
2.
r
10
10

+
1 3
2. 4
=
10

10 + 4
~
7 3 = 14 15
20

7 20 14
= -10X-=-.
f' 29 29

of hea rt attack is less by followi

ng cou rse of
~! < ~, so the probability of havingrse risk
I As
·Me dita tion and Yoga. Hence, the
cou of Meditation and Yoga is mo re
beneficial for the

pa~ enl ~
Exa✓~- The reliability of a HIV test is specctified as follows :
people free of
the disease but 10% go undetected. Of
tests dete
'<t tpe opl e having HIV; 90% of the + ve. In a city having
e but 1% are wrongly diagnosed as HIV
HIV, 99% of the tests are judget negativ and is diagnosed as
0.1% hav e HIV , one person is randomly chosen, given the HIV test (NCERT)
only
r
ve. Wh at is the probability that the person actually has HIV?
HIV +
l S o l u ~1, E2 and A be
the events defined as f~l low ;
Ey'= per son selected has HIV,
I
I
J
~ = per son selected doe s not hav
f
A= per son test ed is dia gno sed
e HIV and
HIV +ve.

Given P(E 1) = 0.1% = 0.001

=> P(E2) = 1 - 0.001 ·= 0.999.
sed +ve giv en tha t he has HIV)
P(A I E1) = P(~ rso n tested diagno
. . . 90
= 90% = - = 0.9,
100
hav e HIV )
sed +ve giv en tha t he doe s not
P(A I Ei) = P(p erso n _teste d diagno
. 1
= 1% = -100 = 0.01.
We wa nt to find P(E1 IA).
By Baye'$ theorem, we hav e
P(E 1) P(A I E1) ,

0.CXX)'J 90
0.OOlx0.9 --=- -
1089
0.01089
= 0.001 X 0.9 + 0.999 X 0.01
 A-105 y UNDERSTANDING ISC MATlll::MA
E-:
~!:5}le 29• Gm.en thre·e identical boxes
llCts XII !IIJ

ua~ ll each con. tain

_,in two coin~. Jr, box I, botlt cnln11 arl!
~ gold coins, in box II, both are silv
A pers?~ chooses a box at random
probability that the other coin in tfie
1
er ~~ins a11d11 box )II: tl1ere is ~:~n8~
and ta ke ~~ in. .:.)f tlte 8
~
of gold
Id coin and one •/Iv
, then wha
er co/ ·
t /11 t~~
box is also of gold?.
Solutiort. Let E , E , E and
1 2 A be the e;e ~ts defined as follow
3 s:
E1 = box I is chosen,
E2 = box 11 is chosen,
E3 = box Ill is chosen and
A= a gol d coin has bee n tak
en out.
Th en P(E 1) = P(E ) = P(E ) =
2 .!. .
3
3
P(A I E1) = P(d raw ing a gold coin from box I) = ½• 1,
P(A IE2) = P(d raw ing a gold coin from box II) = %= 0 and
P(A I E3) = P(d raw ing a gold
We wa nt to find the probab
coin from box III) = ½,
ility tha t the other coin in the
chosen box is of gold
= the probability that gold coin in dra
wn from box I
= P(E1 IA) .
By Baye' s the ore m,
P(E I A)
1
= P(E 1 )P( A I E1 )
P(E 1 )P( A I E ) + P(E )P( A
1 2 I E2 ) + P(E )P( A I E )
3 3
1
- .l 1 '
= 1 l 1 2
1 1 =- -1 = -= 3
-.1 + - .0+ - . - 3
3 3
1+ -
3 2 2 2
Ex a~m l 30. A shopkeeper sells thre
e type of flower seed~A , A and A
\f
{/ th proportions are 4 : 4 : 2 respecti
d 35% respectively.
1 2 • Th ~ are sold as a mix
vely. The germination rates of 3diree ture where
types of seetrs:are 45%'.60%
(i) Find the proba~ility of a ran
domly chosen seed to germinate. -
(ii) If a randomly chosen seed doe
s not germinate, find the probability
that it is of type A •
2
Solution. Let E , E and E be (NCERT Exemplar)
1 2 3 the events defined as follows :
E1 = see d of typ eA1 is chosen,
E2 = see d of typ e A is chosen,
2
E3 = see d of typ e A is chosen
3 ,
As the see ds are sol d as a mix
ture wh ere the proportions are
rati o 2 : 2 : 1, so in the ratio 4 : 4 : 2 i.e. in the

P(E ) = 2 , P(E2) = 2
and P(E J = 51 .
1
5 5
(i) Let A be the eve nt 'ch ose
n seed germinates', the n
.
P(A I E ) = 45% = ~ = i_, 12
1 P(A IE2) == 60%
100 W 20 and P(A I~ = 35% • L.
Req uir ed pro bab ilit y = probab W
ility tha t the chosen seed ger
minates
= P(A) = P(E ) P(A I E ) + P(E
1 1 i) P(A I~) + P(E J P(A I BJ
= ~ i-+ ~. 12+.!. . .Z..=~ =49%
5 . 20 5 20 5 20 100
 A-1053
PROBABILITY
A of germination are 45%, 60'/o
(iO As the probabilities of the !k't'd~ of the ty~ A,, A2 and 1
the types A1, A2 and
and 35% respectively, therdo re, the pmb.ibilitic~ of the ~ds of
A 3 of not germination are 55%, 41~ , and 65% rl>sJJt>ctivl'ly.
Let B be the event 'chosen !R"l.·d dot.'~ not gt'rminatc', tht.>n
P(BIA 1) • 55~ • .!.!.,
20

P(B I A 2) • 40% • .!
20
and P(B I A,) • fl5'~, • 20
· '
D.

We want to find P(A 2 I B).

By Baye's theorem, we h•.we
P(A2 I .B) • P(E2) P(B I e2)
) P(B I A3)
P(E,) P(B I E1) + P(E 2 ) P(B I E2 ) + P(E 3

, r'
=
2
5. 20
¾- ~ + ¾. ! + ¾- ~~
8
-~
51

Ex

# 31. l~t a test, a~ examinee either guess or copies or knows.

t~e answer to a multiple ~hoi;e

on with four cho~ces and only one correct option. The probab1lzty that
. - I

Tire probability that he copies the answer is 2.

9
he makes a guess ts

The probability that the answer is correct, given that

6.

he copied it, is .2.. Find the probability that he knew the answer to the question, given that he correctly
8
answered it.
in the value of passing an
Does the result of this question indicate that most of the students believe
examination with honesty and self knowledge?
s :
Solution. Let E1, E2, E3 and A be the events defined as follow
E1 = the examinee guesses the answer,
E2 = the examinee copies the answer,
E3 = the examinee knows the answer and
A = the examinee has answered the question correctly.

P(E 1) = ..!., P(E2) = ..!.9 (given).

6
P(E 2) + P(E3) =1
As E1, Ei and ~ are mutually exclusive and exhaustive events, P(E 1) +

~ P(E:J = 1 - P(E1) - P(E2) =1- ¾- ¾= ~ ·

are four choices and only one)
When E1 has occurred, then the examinee guesses. Since there
·'
rs correctly given that he has made a guess is· .!.
is correct, the probability that he answe._... 4
i.e.-,.' :··
\.
'·'
P(A I E1) = .!. . -
4
has copied
P(A IE2) = probability that he answers correctly given that he
1
=
8
then the probability that he
When E3 has occurred i.e. the examinee knows the answer,
answer is 1 (sure event) i.e. P(A IE3) = 1.
answers correctly given that he knows the ,-
We want to find P(E3 IA).
 )tNO 1SC MATHEMATICS.)(
uNr>f.RSTN'~ 1 It 1111

A H~'"'
Hr t\.\\~-~ tt""''"'"\; Wt' h.-,·,• l'tl iJ !l'.(A_~~;~
___ ,_..- , . ) tl(I\ I E1>
Ii.it·
, ., I ' ~l "' l'tt,)l'\A
· -- 1t· l t I lhJ
I 11 11 72 11
11 l
~--x-=-
~-rr • J+ l ~ ~~- 18 48 12 . ti

. ,-.- f r-rG . '+ ~ + tH .. - 12

~ ' " t v ' ft t I~ ' 2-'
h tudents believe in the value of
t of t e s
, i I' . ,h,' th,,t mo~
\t~ tht' "'~ult ,,t' tht' ,1ut•~t"'" m tli . ,11, km,wl,,d~c.
f - ·t.• It • n e\,11nin.,tion wilh h,,m•,11)' aa>d "
1-....'7 it1inK cards of tl!e pack, ~o cards.,,
F n ,1.. 3-A ·"' ,·,ml ff\lnf., '"''*,{';;,,ml, i~ f;i),-,. fn"," ,':,~:,r';,:,,,t' 10:~,
V~ • WN'H .mJ .. ,... fiitm,t /(I
·
l #' / j It' flrt 1 11I
ti.·'"''"
t' IM•, ""
' 1
,1 'J

,fl , i a~ f,lllnws ••
oluth,, n, lt't fi,. E~ ,md A ~• tlw t'\'t•nt~ 1. t flt" '
t'
)
card being a club.~
rIY
E1 • h--t ,-.mi is l,f du1'1'1.
f., • k,-.t t\1rd i~ m,t l\f du1':-. iHld ~ •
A.• tw,l ,-.mi~ dr,1 wn M't' t'l,,th llf clubs.
n.. n t I ' ) :w 3
""'" J't.f\) • -:;- a - ,md '">(E~ • ~ • 4 ·
~ -' ·- th k 51
\\'~'O \,ni- c,.ud is l,\'-t. num1't.•r of n•mnining cards in e pac = ·
· · • , I ti the probubility of drawing 2 cards of
\\ ~'fl E h.l~ \~.'\.'urt,1 i.t". a c,m.i of dubs 1s ost, 1en
1
12c
du~~ fn)m th~ ~m.,ining p,wk • ~ ,
. C2
1
J\l"fE) ::c, 12.n 1.2 22
~' ,,., l • ~=--X--
• 1C 1.2
=-.
51.50 415 ,
1
\\'h~n ~ h,1s 0t"'t.·urrt•d i.t!. when a card of dubs is not lost, then the probability of drawing
13(
2 c.irds of clu~s from th~ remaining pack = ~ '
ic2

so P(A IE,) :a ~= 13. 12 x ~ = ~

•

We w,mt to find P(Eif A). - !-tel 1.2 Sl.50 425.

By &lye's theorem, we have:

P(E1IA) = P(E,)P(AIE1)
P(E1) P(A I E1) + P(E 2 ) P(A I E2 )
1 22
= 4 . 425 _ _E_ _ 22 11
..! . 22 + I .lb_ 22 + 1a - 1oo = 50 ·
4 425 4·425

le E.: A card from a p,1ck o 52 la mrds is lo t F

ds are drtnt'tl at rt1mlom (withrmt rt·p ncr:meni · s · rom the remaining cards of the pack three
of tlte lt•st mrd bf.'i11g ,1 spade. ~e fou nd to be all spades. Find the probability
Solution. L~t E1, E2 and A be the events d e f'med as follows .
E1 = lost card is of spades, ·
E2 = lost card is of non-spades and
A = three c,uds drawn are all of spades.
13 1 •
Then P(E 1) = - = - and P(~) • ~ = i
52 4 52 4.
When one card is lost, then number of re , .
maming card . th
sin e pack• 51.
PRtlAAfUUTY
A-1055
\\'htn E, ~~ tl("Ntm.1 ,_,. • C~f\ i of 'f'1't1,~ ,~ h~t. tht'n th<- prot,c11'tlity of drtiwing 3 cards of
or
h""" tlw f\'nlainit~ ra(~ • ~i·
"P'kt,~ !
... u l~ l l \ I In
NA I F. 11 • "' . 2 ,
, -"' ..~I~-,:--·
~ ) • r-~~ '- .•,-- • ,-,, I . ""l . 44'
tn,
1(.- ,T .
t\1" • .1'
W ~ f : ~, '"""'arn,I i "· ~ un i of •wn -,rihk~. 1twn the r,rol,,1bility nf dr,,wlng 3 cc1rds of
'I"'"~'""'' tlw "'"'"ini~~ ra<k • ~c~
"r
·
... "" ,. I r ) • ,,,..
I \1' C-,
•
~
~ •
I'. , l ..'
•n - I1 )(
~
1. l . :C
n-Y .~
2AA
\', , .} :t l . :l\l . 4"1' • tr:· :.ff
lt~i,i '

"°'" ,,.lnt h.'\ find l'(F, I At

8~· 8.1~-e ·, tht·•N\'ffi. we h,l\'e :
P\E,I A) • P(E 1)P(A I E,)
P\E 1 )P(A I E ) + P(E ) P(A I E
1 2 2)

-41 --
220

- 1 220
-. -- + -3 . -
2~2 5
286
4 20825 4 2082 -
5
= __
22_ 0__ = __1_0_
220 + 3 X 286 10 + 3 X 13
= lQ
49

EXERCISE 10.5
L lhere are two bag s I and II. Bag
I contains 2 whi te and 4 red ball
5 whi te and 3 red balls. One ball s and bag II con tain s
is dra wn at ran dom from one of
to be red . Fin d the probability that the bag s and is fou nd
it was dra wn from bag 11.
2. Bag I con tain s 3 red and 4 blac
k balls whi le ano ther bag II con tain
balls. One ball is dra wn at ran dom s 5 red and 6 blac k
from one of the bag s and it is fou
the pro bab ility that it was dra wn from nd to be red. Fin d
bag II.
(NCERD
3. A box con tain s 2 gol d and 3 silv
er coins. Another box contains 3 gold
A box is cho sen at ran dom and a coin and 3 silv er coins.
is selected from it. If the sele cted
coin, then find the probability that coin is a gol d
it is dra wn from the seco nd box.
4. Suppose 5% of men and 0.25%
of wom en hav e grey hairs. A grey
at random. What is the probability -hai red per son is slee ted
of this pers on being male? Ass ume
equal number of males and females. that the.r e are

5. Tw o gro ups are com peti ng for

the positions on Board of Director
pro bab iliti es that the first gro up s of a corp orat ion. The
and the second gro up will win
respectively. Further, if the fir!it gro are 0.6 and 0.4
up wins, the probability of intr odu
is 0.7 and the correi:iponding prob cing a new pro duc t
ability ls 0.3 if the second gro up
pro bab ility that the new pro duc t win s. Find the
intr odu ced was by second gro up.
~~ up po se 5 men out of 100 and
25 wom en out of 1000 are goo d orat
cho sen at rand om. Fin d the probabil ors. A goo d ora tor is
ity that a male pers on is selected.
are equ al num ber of men and wom Ass ume that ther e
en.
Sho uld wom en be given equal righ
ts? What values are bein g pro mot
ed? (Value Based)
7. It is kno wn that 60% stud ents
in a college reside in hostel while
scholars. 30% of all stud ents who rem aini ng 40.% are day
reside in hostel attain A gra de and
atta in A grad e. If one rand oml y cho 20% of day scholars
sen stud ent has A grade, then wha
that he lives in the hostel? t is the probability
- (NCERn
 .. ~olNG ISC MATH EMAncs )(JJ 'Q
UNDERST~... . I

A-1056 t.75 metres. Furthermorta,

Uer than
d 1a:, of girls are ta . Jected at random from tht
H In a certain college, 4% of boys an 1 . ls. A student 15 se b bility that the selert,."'
60% of the students in the college are gir tres Find the pro a
75
college and is found to be ta1Jer than 1. me ·
-' ' q l

student is a girl. Plant [ manufactures &1., of U}e

00 scooters are rated as 0 f
9. A company has two plants to manufa cture scooters. t I 85 out of l d d
1
scooters and plant II manufactures 20%. At P an 'ters are rated as of stan ar quality.
standard quality and at plant II, 65 ou t of 100d scoo
t be of standard qu ality · What is "L uie
A scooter is chosen at random and is foun ° (/SC 2006)
probability that it has come from plant I? f th girls have an I.Q . of more than
10. In a class, having 60% boys, 5% of the boysfand dl0% ~ _ ean I.Q. of more than 150. Find
to nave
150. A student is selected at random and oun
the probability that the selected student is a boy. pect in society. A man is
11. (i) Often it is taken that a truthful pe~n comm~~ : ;e
known to speak truth 4 out of 5 times. He . D
0
':d
reports that it is a six.
also agree that the vcilue
Find the probability that it is a~ally a s1~. ~ you
truthfulness leads to more respect m the soc1ety ·
. He throws a die and reports that
(ii) A man is known to speak truth 3 out of 5 ti~es. tit is actu,;dly a number greater
it is a number greater than 4. Find the probability tha
than 4. .
. bl _1.. b lls 3 white and 2 black balls, and
12. There are three urns containing 2 white and 3 J'--1' a ' . h t,e·
4 white and 1 black baJJ, respectively. There is an equ,11 opportumty of eac u~ _mg
chosen. A ball is drawn at random from the chosen um a nd it is found to be white. Find
the probability· · that baJJ drawn was from utt:
AL .-
secon d u m• (NCERT
i
Exm11,lar)
13. Um I has 2 white and 3 black balls, urn II hc1s 4 white and l black ball and um IJJ has
3 white and 4 black balls. An um is selected at random and a ball is drawn at random.
(i) What is the probability of drawing a whHe ball?
(ii) If the ball drawn is white, then what is the probability thdt um I was selected?
14. In the above question, a die having 3 red, 2 yellow and ~ grttn face is thrown to select
the um. If a red face turns up, we pick um l, if a yritow face turns up we pick um Il,
otherwise we pick um HI. Then we draw a b.iH out of the um.
/
(i) What is the probability of drawing a white ball?
' (ii) If the baJJ drawn is white, then what is the probJbility that the die had turned up
with a red face?
~/ Each of three identical jewellery boxes has two drawers. Jn each drawer of the first box
7· there is a gold watch. In each drawer of the second box th~ is a silver watch. In one
. drawer of the third box there is a gold watch while in the other there is a silver watch.
If we select a box at random, open one of the drawers and find it to contain a 1ilver
watc~ then what is the probability that the other drawer has the gold watch?
16. In a bolt factory, three machines A, B and C manufactures 2.5%, 35% and 4(1,.~ ot the total
production respectively. Of their respective outputs. 5%, 4% and 2% are defective. A bolt
is drawn at random from the total production and it is found to be defective. Find dw
probability that it was manufactured by machine C. (/SC 1014)
17. A fact~ry has three_ machines A. B and ~ produ~g 1500, 2500 and Jen) bulbs ~ dJy
respectively. Machine A produces 1.5i• defective bulbs. macrune 8 produtt!i ?\
detective bulbs and machine C produces 2.5% defective bulbs. At tfw end of dw dav, ,
bulb is drawn at random and it is found to~ defective. What is the probability dwt this
defective bulb has been produced by machme B? (/SC 10lfJ)
18. An insurarM:.Y company insured 4000 docto"'., 800> ~tiehers and 1200> ~ Thr
probabiJity ol I doctor, a teacher and ~ mg1neer dying betor. the • ol 58 yeilff .,.
Q_Ot, 0.03 and 0.05 res~vely. U ~rw ol ttw inauf\ld pt'non din bwfote the • ol '8
years, find the protMbility that he 11 1 ductor. ( /SC 20()j)
PROBABILITY A-1057

19. In an automobile factory, certain parts are to be fixed into the chassis in a section before
it moves to the next section. On a given day, one of the three persons A, B and C carries
out the task. A has 45% ch~mcc, B has 35 chance and C has 20% chance of doing the task.

The probability th.it A, B and C. will tc1kc more time them the allotted time is ¾, 1~ and
1
respectively. If it is found thJt the time taken is more than the allotted time, what is
20
he probability that A hits dnnc thl' t,1sk? ({SC 2016)
Thl're are thrt•c coins. One Is ~ lwo-ht.•ad..-rl rni n, another is a biased coin that comes up
heads 75% of the time and third Is an unbiJscd coin. One of the three coins is chosen at
random and tossed. If it 1'hows heads, then what is the probability that it was the two-
headt.-d coin?
21. Tlm.-e ~rsons A, B and C npply for a job of Manager in a Private Company. Chances of
their selection (A, B .1nd C) are in the ratio 1 : 2 : 4. The probabilities that A, Band C can
introduce changl's to improve profits of the company are 0.8, 0.5 and 0.3 respectively. If
the change do~s not take place, find the probability that it is due to the appointment of
C.
22. By examining the chest X-ray, the probability that TB is detected when a person is
actually suffering from it is 0.99. The probability of an healthy person diagnosed to have
TB is 0.001. In a certain city, 1 in 1000 people suffers from TB. A person is selected at
random and is diagnosed to have TB. What is the probability that he/ she actually has
TB? (NCERT Exemplar)
23. A doctor is to visit a patient. From the past experience, it is known .that the probability
that he will come by public transport, scooter, taxi or personal car are respectively

I_,.!,~ and 3.. The probabilities that h~ will be late a;e .!4 ,.!3 or I_
12
if he comes by public
10 5 10 5
transport, scooter or taxi respectively, but if he comes by personal car he will not be late.
When he arrives, he is late. What is the probability that he came by scooter?
Do you think, we should use public transport and why? (Value Based)
24. Suppose we have four boxes A, B, C, D containing coloured marbles as- given below :
Marble colour
Box
Red . White Black
A 1 6 3
.B 6 2 2
C 8 1 1
D 0 6 4

One of the boxes has been selected at random and a marble is drawn from it. If the
marble is red, then what are the probabilities that it was drawn from boxes A, B, C, D
respectively? (NCERT)
25. Bag A contains 2 white, 1 black and 3 red balls; Bag B contains 3 white, 2 black and
4 red balls; Bag C contains 4 white, 3 black and 2 red balls. One bag is chosen at
random and 2 balls_are drawn at random.from that Bag. If the randomly drawn balls are
happened to be red and black, what is the probability that both balls come from Bag B?
(ISC 2011)
26. A coin is tossed. If it turns up heads, 2 balls will be drawn from urn A, otherwise 2 balls
will be drawn from urn B. Urn A contains 3 black and 5 white balls. Urn B contains
7 black bal\s ·and 1 white ball. In both cases, selections are to be made with replacement.
What is·the probability that urn A is used given that both the balls drawn are black?
27. Redo the above problem assuming that the coin is biased and turns up heads 2 times out
of 3.
 UNDERSTANDING ISC MATH EMAT ICS - XJ1 (II)
A IW,H
. bl k and 3 red balls. U m II contail'\s
2ff. Thl'l''1 nr~ thl'l'«? urn!'I, Ul'l1 I contalnB l whit~,
·~s 4a~h ite, 5 black and 3 red balls. One
2 whllt•, 1 bltwk and I rl'd ball11. Urn III con 1 'th ut
urn 111 cho11l'n at rnmlnm and 2 balltt d rown wa O
° repla ceme nt. They happ en to be
f m urn I II or III?
whlll ' And rl'd . Wh11l I!! the probability t Ot they are ro
h ,
, . . d of the pack , two cards
29. A l't'ml frt1m a p~l·k of , 2 nm.lH Is lo~t. from e th rt?ma antng car s
bllity of the missi ng card to be a heart.are
dt'uwn ond Ml' found tn be hl'orlB. Find the proba

10.6 RANDOM VAIUABLES

A ,,,,,,1.,,,, · · by the
Mrl11/J/1• iii o/l1•11 dnicrib,•d as a variafJ/e whose va lue.9 are determined by chance i.e.
·
""ln1111t.·t1 <if a r111ul11111 c:q1eri1111·11t .
If to cm:h ouh.'o nH.' of sompl~ 8pace we as s1•S0 a 1 numb er, we the n have a Ju nc t zon
·
re_a tocha stic function. Loosely, it is
dl'fhw d on the IHlmp k space. IL as c1:1Uc~ a random
cJlll•d a r,mdom tiarial,/,• ur stocl,m,llc vanab/e. Thus
function or s iable is a function whose domain
, a random var
I,. 11,,, sfl1111Jlr s1mn• of n r,mdo111 expt'riment and whose range 1·5 a subset oif rea1 num bers.
For l'xumpk•, let S be the snmple space of a simu .
ltane ous throw of two coms . Then,
S .. IHJI, HT, TH, 'rl'I.
Let X dl'no lc the nutnbl.!r of heads. Then X is
a rando m varia ble. It can have values
0, 1 ond 2 only. Thus, doma in of Xis Sand range is
{O, 1, 2). Note that X(HT) = l, X(TT) = 0 etc.
L~t Y deno te the numb er of tails. Then Y is also a
rando m varia ble, havin g doma in S and
rc1ngl! 10, 1, 21 .
Nott.' that thoug h doma in and range of X and Y
is same, X * Y beca use X(HH ) = 2 while
Y(HH) • 0. Also note that many other rando m variables
can be defin ed over this samp le space;
fur example, numb er of head s minu s numb er of tails,
squar e of the numb er of head s etc.
Sumi.? other exam ples of rando m variables are :
(i) Three balls are draw n simu ltane ously from
a bag conta ining 5 red, 3 black and 4 white
balls. Let X be a varia ble defin ed as the numb er of
white balls draw n. Then X is a rando m
varia ble with doma in -= samp le space S = {Wy Ry
By W 2 R1, W 2 B1, R2Wi, R2 B , B Ri,
B2W 1, B1R1WiJ wher e W , W W deno te one, two, 1 2
1 21 3 three white balls respe ctive ly etc. and
range • {0, 1, 2, 3).

Note that X(W3) a 3, X(W B ) = 2, X(R B ) =

2 1 2 1 0,
X(R3) • 0 etc. The rando m funct ion X is
show n in
the adjoi ning diagr am.

(ii) A die is rolled once and varia ble Z is defin ed

as
half of the squa re of the numb er on the uppe r
face of the die. Then Z is a rando m varia ble with z
doma in • samp le space S = {l, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} and
J
range • { 1 ,2, 9 ,s, 25 ,18 }
2 2 2 3-t-----+-➔ 9~

. 1 4 8
2 , 2(2)
Note that 2(1) • = 2 etc. The rand om
funct ion Z is show n in the adjoi ning diagr am.

(iii) A die is rolled . Let "success" (value = 1)

be
defin ed as getti ng an even numb er and "failu re"
(val ue• O) be defin ed as gettin g an odd numb er.
Th~ random funct ion Y assoc iated with this
dt!fin ition is show n in the adjoi ning diagr am.
The domain is {1, 2, 3, ... , 6} and range is (0, 1}.
PROBABILITY
A-1129
38. Suppose that 90% of the
people are right handed. What the
sample of 10 people are right handed? probability tnat(NCERT)
is
6 people of a random
39. If 20% of the bolts produced
by a machine are defective, determine the probability tha
out of 4 bolts chosen at random () 1 (i) 0 (it) less than 2 bolts will be defective.
40. A die is thrown 6 times. What is the
probability that there will be (i) no ace (ii) not
more
than one ace (i) not more than 4 aces? (Note that ace means a number 1, or one dot, on the
upper face of the die.)

ANSWERS
EXERCISE 10.1
1 2. 0.2

3. ) 0.65 (i) 0.55 (i) 0.8 () 0.35 (vi) 0.2

(io) 0
3
4.
(Gi 5. () 0.58 (i) 0.52 (ii) 0.74

6. 0.3 7. 0.67 0.37 9. 10. Yes

11 14
5 12 2 13. 0.65 14. (i) (Gin

15. P(A selected) = PB selected) =P C selected) =

10

4 9 7
16. 17. 18.
13
19.
12 20.(
55 316
21. () 0.5 (i) 0.25 22.
221
23. 135

EXERCISE 10.2
2. P(AIB) = PA U B) = 0.85
1. (i) not defined

3.

6. ( 8
9.
2 10.() 11
12.

cultures.
in diversity and mutual respect for different
(iit) values promoted are: unity

EXERCISE 10.3
(10) 1
169 1
1. () 0, P(A) P(B) (i) true, 0.7 (ii) -|8 16

0.42 2
( 2 51 (vi) 0.12, 0.58, 0.6,
3. () Not independent (i) Not independent

10 6. Independent
(25 5. Independent
 A-1130 8. 0.5
7. Not independent exclusive

independent,
but not mutually
9. () exclusive
nor mutually
neither independent
(i)
exclusive but not independent
(ii) mutually
9 13. 16
10.
11. 153
31
12 10
4
14
15.() 95 (i) 19
14 56
49
() 121 (ii) 121
16.
450
18. 0.00001 19. 207 20. 1859
625

2 (i) 0.28 ii) 0.22

21. 22. (i) 0.03
11
16 25.
23. 22
425 (i) 3525 24

26. (i) (i) 108

(it)5
(iv) 53
54
1
27.

28. 26 Coming to school is a good habit. Students do not miss any portion of the subject. Habit of

being in time is very useful throughout life.

47
29.
G 30.
50

31. When appearing in an examination, a student should have no intention of copying or

cheating. Copying or heating may help in passing the exam but inculcates habit of dishonesty
which leads to corruption and many ills.
24
32.
35
(i) (i) (io) 33. 0.2647

34. 30%; because it is more likely to be true.

2
35. (i)
45 25

36. ) G (Gii) 225

2048

38. ( (i)

39. ( (i) 5
24
40. 1 41. 16
1260 42.
623

43. P(team A winning)= 11 P(team Bwinning)

=
Decision of referee was not fair because the
probability of team A winning is more than that o
teamBwinning. In fact, their probabilities of winning are in the ratio
6
ie. 6 :5.

44. P(Aman) 36
PBhuvan) 31 4
67 67
45. P(A) =P(B)
7 E 46.7
FRORABLY A-1131
EXERCISE 10.4
113
180
3. 0 4 In strikes, there is wastage ot man hours and there are no produetive activities. Riots create
unneessary tension between people ot ditferent religions. The values promoted are dedication
towands work and religious harmony.

() s. 1.
63

30

EXERCISE 10.5
3 . 5
; Yes, women must be given equal rights.
The values promoted are:
() equal opportunity of work, equal social status
) women empowerment
ii) no gender discrimination.

9
10.
13 81

11. (Yes
12
19 14 14. () 113
13.) 15.
210 3

16 20
169 17.
18 2 19. 20.
9

7 990
21. 22.
10 1989

23. We should use public transport because it is safe, less expensive and helps in saving

petrol/diesel
20
26.
*15'515 25. 58
27.

28,33 55 30
118' 118' 118 29 50

EXERCISE I0.6
1. (
48
(G) POX <3) =P(X24)=PO<Xs
486 5) 24

(0 1 2 (0 1 2 (1 2 3 45 6