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WEATHER FORECASTING

Technical Report · February 2016

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.20270.51522

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 WEATHER FORECASTING

by

PROF. A. BALASUBRAMANIAN
DEPARTMENT OF STUDIES IN EARTH SCIENCE
UNIVERSITY OF MYSORE, MYSORE

Abstract

Weather forecasting is the prediction of the state of the atmosphere for a given location using the
application of science and technology. This includes temperature, rain, cloudiness, wind speed, and
humidity. Weather warnings are a special kind of short-range forecast carried out for the protection of
human life. Weather warnings are issued by the governments throughout the world for all kinds of
threatening weather events including tropical storms and tropical cyclones depending upon the
location. The forecast may be short-range or Long-range. It is a very interesting and challenging task.
This report provides a basic understanding of the purpose and scope of weather forecasts, the basic
principles and the general models developed for forecasting.

1.0 Introduction:

Weather forecasting means the prediction of the weather through the application of the principles of
physics, supplemented by a variety of statistical and empirical techniques.
In addition to predictions of atmospheric phenomena themselves, weather forecasting includes
predictions of changes on the Earth’s surface climate. These changes are caused by atmospheric
conditions like snow and ice cover, storm tides, and floods.

The basis for weather prediction started with the theories of the ancient Greek philosophers and
continued with Renaissance scientists. It was followed by the scientific revolution of the 17th and
18th centuries. The theoretical models of 20th- and 21st-century atmospheric scientists and
meteorologists helped for the betterment in applications. The so-called synoptic weather map came to
be the principal tool of 19th-century meteorologists. This is used today in weather stations and on
television weather reports all over the world. All can happen only through a comprehensive weather
forecast. Any weather prediction needs a systematic collection of weather record of various places and
proper analysis using the data for prediction.

2.0 Practical applications of weather forecasting:

Systematic weather records were kept after the invention of the instruments for measuring
atmospheric conditions during the 17th century. Undoubtedly, these early records were employed
mainly by those engaged in agriculture. Planting and harvesting can be planned better and carried
out more efficiently if all the long-term weather patterns are estimated in advance.

Weather warnings are a special kind of short-range forecasts. It is needed for the protection of
human life from weather extremes. Weather warnings are issued by government and military
organizations throughout the world for all kinds of threatening weather events like tropical storms
which are called as hurricanes, typhoons, or tropical cyclones, depending on location.

Weather forecasting became an important tool for aviation during the 1920s and ’30s. Many
oceangoing shipping vessels as well as military ships use optimum ship routing forecasts to plan their
routes in order to minimize the loss of time, potential damage, and fuel consumption in heavy seas.
Any observer who has learned the nature’s signs in the sky can interpret the appearance of the sky,
the wind, and other local effects and “foretell the weather.”

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A scientist can use instruments at one location to determine the same effectively. The modern
approach to weather forecasting uses data of many such observations made at different places. These
are exchanged quickly by experts at various weather stations and entered on a synoptic weather map.
This synoptic weather maps is used to depict the patterns of pressure, wind, temperature, clouds, and
precipitation at a specific time.

3.0 Establishment of weather-station networks and services:

The increase in the number of weather-station networks linked by telegraphy, made synoptic
forecasting a reality. It happened by the close of the 19th century.
Forecasters are able to produce synoptic weather maps of the upper atmosphere twice each day on the
basis of radiosonde observations.
The Radar observation of the growth, motion, and characteristics of such storms provide clues as to
their severity.
Meteorological measurements are made from from satellites and aircraft.

3.1 The era of numerical weather prediction began in the 1950s.

As computing power grew, so did the complexity, speed, and capacity for detail of the weather and
climatic models. The new and latest observations became available from such sources as Earth-
orbiting satellites, radar systems, and drifting weather balloons. Advanced methods with sophisticated
equipment are used to ingest the data into the models to produce the initial synoptic maps.
Numerical forecasts have improved steadily over the last fifty years.

3.2 Weather prediction /Forecast

Weather Forecasting serves many purposes and needs. It can help people and organizations to plan
for the future and to make rational decisions.
The fundamental aim of meteorologists is to understand the atmospheric processes and then predict
the future weather as much ahead as possible.
Adaptation to the climatic environment, which means adjusting to the normal occurrences and
withstanding the unfavourable extremes is an important feature for the survival of life. So, it is
inevitable to go for weather forecast in the world everywhere.

4.0 Goal of atmospheric research

Weather prediction is said to be the ultimate goal of atmospheric research. It is the most advanced
area in the subject and application of meteorology. First, to make an accurate forecast, a
meteorologist must first understand what processes are occurring in the atmosphere to produce the
current weather at the location for which the meteorologist is forecasting. This is done by measuring
certain elements (making observations) of the atmosphere. They are called as weather elements. It
includes the temperature, pressure, wind direction and speed, humidity, cloud cover, precipitation, etc.
Frequency, accuracy and area of coverage are important in this work. The more complete
measurement coverage across the earth's surface and vertically through the atmosphere of these
elements will give a better picture about the trending situations.

By observing the changes which take place to these elements over time and comparing the changing
patterns with historical patterns, an understanding of expected weather conditions can be made.

The differences in warming across the earth's surface from solar radiation, radiational cooling at night,
warming of the atmosphere due to latent heat release during condensation are some of the important
things to be recorded.

4.1 Meteorologists in weather Forecasting:

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If meteorologists can understand how the atmosphere changes over time in response to various
factors, they can write the governing mathematical equations to express these changes. These
equations are developed into numerical models to find out how the atmosphere is changing and will
appear in the future. The output from these models can be used as an aid to forecasters in preparing
the forecasts both in short range or long range.

Different methods used in modern weather forecasting are:

(1) Synoptic weather forecasting,
(2) Numerical methods, and
(3) Statistical methods.

4.2 Synoptic weather forecasting:

It is the traditional and basic approach adopted in weather prediction.

This method continued to be in use until the late 1950s.
"Synoptic" means that the observation of different weather elements refers to a specific time of
observation.

Thus, a weather map that depicts the atmospheric conditions at a given time is a synoptic chart to a
meteorologist.
In order to have an average view of the changing pattern of weather, a modern meteorological centre
prepares a series of synoptic charts every day.
Such synoptic charts form the basis of all general weather forecasts.
The task of preparing synoptic charts on a regular basis involves huge collection and analysis of
observational data obtained from thousands of weather stations.

From the careful study of weather charts over many years, certain empirical rules are formulated.
These rules help the forecaster in estimating the rate and direction of the movement of weather
systems.

4.3 Numerical methods:

The numerical method involves a lot of mathematics.

Modern weather forecasting is now using the techniques of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP).
This method is based on the fact that gases of the atmosphere follow a number of physical principles.
If the current conditions of the atmosphere are known, these physical laws may be used to forecast the
future weather situations.

A series of mathematical equations are used to develop the theoretical models of the general
circulation of the atmosphere.
These equations are used to specify changes in the atmosphere as the time passes on.
For these equations certain weather elements like air movements, temperatures, humidity, evaporation
at the ground, clouds, rain, snow and interactions of air with ground and oceans are taken into
account. The daily weather prediction model is one such thing. In mobile phones we see these
forecasts.

4.4 Daily weather prediction model

The daily weather prediction model makes use of a numerical model in which the atmosphere is
divided into 6 distinct layers.
In certain cases, the atmosphere is divided into as many as 11 layers.
The use of mathematical models makes it necessary that the initial state of the atmosphere is
completely known.
These models, in fact, represent a hypothetical atmosphere.

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The equations are solved by the computer at each nodal point for a very short period of time, say 10
minutes. By repetitive calculations for every next 10 minutes, forecast is obtained for 24, 48 or 72
hours ahead.

4.5 Radio sonde data

The accuracy of numerical weather predictions depend primarily on two factors. First, the more data
that is available to a computer, the more accurate its results. Second, the faster the speed of the
computer, the more calculations it can perform, and the more accurate its report will be.

This is made possible by making observations of the atmosphere by means of radiosonde stations all
over the world. Radio sonde data are supplemented by means of radiometric observations from
satellites which also provide data on humidity and cloud cover. With the help of these quantities,
maps showing the atmospheric conditions are constructed. At present automated techniques are used
to draw weather maps depicting the pattern of these quantities.

4.6 Nowcasting:
The forecasting of the weather within the next six hours is often referred to as nowcasting.
In this time range, it is possible to forecast smaller events such as individual showers and
thunderstorms with reasonable accuracy, as well as other features too small to be resolved by a
computer model.
This type of forecast therefore includes details that cannot be solved by numerical weather
prediction (NWP) models running over longer forecast periods.

4.7 Statistical methods:

Statistical methods are mainly used along with the numerical weather prediction computations.
These methods often supplement the numerical methods.
Statistical methods use the past records of weather data on the assumption that future will be a
repetition of the past weather.
The main purpose of studying the past weather data is to find out those aspects of the weather that are
good indicators of the future events.
After establishing these relationships, correct data can be safely used to predict the future conditions.

Only overall weather can be predicted in this way. It is particularly of use in projecting only one
aspect of the weather at a time.

5.0 Forecast Range Types

A short-range forecast is a weather forecast made for a time period up to 48 hours.

Extended forecasts are for a period extending beyond three or more days (eg. a three to five-day
period) from the day of issuance.

Medium range forecasts are for a period extending from about three days to seven days in advance.

Long-range forecasts are for a period greater than seven days in advance but there are no absolute
limits to the period.

Short-range forecast predictions, where the forecast is made for a time period for today and/or
tomorrow (up to 48 hours), are generally more accurate than the other types of forecasts.

5.1 Long Range Weather Forecasting:

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A long range forecast must be able to indicate how the weather over the extended period will differ
from the climatic normal.
As the climate of a region and season is a summary of all types of weather conditions which occur,
long-range forecasts may have to attempt to describe the future weather, in terms of the types of
weather situations to be expected.

The realization that the climate is not constant and invariant, makes the forecasting of future climate
all the more important.

Consistent with the several needs, the scope of long range weather prediction has extended over a
wide spectrum ranging from 5 days to periods of the length of months, seasons or more.

5.2 Basis of long-range forecasting :

Long-range forecast of weather will have to depend upon the routine observations of the several
phenomena, made over the entire globe.
The number of atmospheric elements/parameters concerned is so enormous that to maintain an
accurate record of their locations, their physical state and their changes is practically impossible.

5.3 Periodicity is yet another factor in this process.

The study of periodic variations in weather has attracted many meteorologists. Much of the work done
in long-range forecasting of weather by climatic cycles is based on the expected influences of the
major planets.

5.4 Correlation approach :

Statistical relations expressing the relationships between past and present weather on the one hand and
the future weather in the same or other regions of the globe on the other, have been in use in various
parts of the world. These were used particularly where large scale processes dominate the weather
over a wide range of land areas.

5.5 Dynamical approach :

In this method, beginning with the observed state of the atmosphere at a given time, the future state is
predicted on the basis of a set of thermodynamical and hydrodynamical differential equations . Most
of these equations involve the first law of thermodynamics and Newton's second law of motion.

6.0 Challenges of Tropical Weather Forecasting:

Tropical weather is difficult to forecast.

Midlatitude weather is dominated by synoptic systems moving in the westerlies, which formed the
basis for the weather analysis methods developed in the 19th and 20th centuries.

In the midlatitudes, baroclinic instability results from air masses with contrasting temperature and
density. There, energy is concentrated in extratropical cyclones that can be tracked fairly easily. But
tropical cyclones ma be very difficult to predict.

Tropical forecasters are faced with a variety of synoptic-scale systems that can produce heavy rain,
strong winds, severe weather, dust storms, and high surf.

The most hazardous of the synoptic systems are tropical cyclones.

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 6.1 Other Methods of Forecasting- Persistence Forecasting:

Persistence forecasting is a prediction that the weather in the future will be the same as it currently is;
that there will be no change to the weather conditions. Persistence forecasts are generally good only
for short periods of a few hours and become less accurate as the time period lengthens.

7.0 Conclusion:

Weather forecasts still have their limitations despite the use of modern technology and improved
techniques to predict the weather. Weather forecasting is complex and not always accurate, especially
for days further in the future, because the weather can be chaotic and unpredictable.
If weather patterns are relatively stable, the persistence method of forecasting provides a relatively
useful technique to predict the weather for the next day. Weather observation techniques have
improved and there have been technological advancements in predicting the weather in recent times.
Despite this major scientific and technical progress, many challenges remain regarding long-term
weather predictability. The accuracy of individual weather forecasts varies significantly.

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