COMSATS WAH

CIVIL ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT

Course Code-Course Name MTH 262 Statistics and Probability Theory CR: 3-0

Prerequisite NIL

Course Objective

The primary objective of this course is to provide the basic and applied knowledge of
Descriptive Statistics as: Measure of Averages, Measure of Dispersion, Quantiles, Moments,
Skewness, Kurtosis, Regression and Correlation. Another objective of this course is to provide
foundation of Probability Theory and its application including: Addition and Multiplication
Laws of Probabilities, Conditional Probability, Bayes Rule and Law of Total Probability,
Probability Distributions including Binomial & Multinomial Distribution, Hyper-Geometric &
Multi-Hyper-Geometric Distribution, Geometric & Negative Binomial Distribution, Poisson
Distribution, and Poisson Approximation to Binomial. Normal Distribution. This course will
help students to analyze statistical problems as well as enable them to think practically.

Text/Reference Books
1. Introduction to Statistics by Walpole, R. E, (3rd Ed).
2. Probability and Statistics by Walpole, R.E. (6th Ed).
3. Probability & Statistics for Engineers and Scientists by Walpole, R. E. (6th Ed).

Program Learning Outcomes

The course is designed so that students will achieve the following PLOs”.
 PLO-1 Engineering Knowledge: Apply knowledge of mathematics, science,
engineering fundamentals and an engineering specialization to the solution of complex
engineering problems.
 PLO-2 Problem Analysis: Identify, formulate, research literature and analyse complex
engineering problems reaching substantiated conclusions using first principles of
mathematics, natural sciences and engineering sciences.
  PLO-5 Use Software: An ability to create , select and apply appropriate techniques,
resources and modern and IT tools including prediction , modeling the complex
engineering activities with an understanding of limitations.

Course Learning Outcomes (CLOs)

Upon successful completion of the course, the student will be able to:
1. CLO-1: Understand the Concepts of Statistics including Averages, Dispersions, Regression
& Correlation and Probability. (C2-PLO1).
2. CLO-2: Apply Statistical and Probability Concepts (described in 1). (C3-PLO2).
3. CLO-3: Use software i.e. Microsoft access and Matlab for complex problems having
huge data. (C3-
PLO5).

Course Learning Outcomes to Course Contents Mapping

4. Basics of Statistics: Introduction and Types of Statistics, Data and Information, Type of Data,
Classification of Data, Numerical and Graphical Presentation of Data. [CLO1-CLO2-CLO3]
5. Measures of Central and Non Central Tendencies: Types of Average (Arithmetic Mean,
Geometric Mean, Harmonic Mean, Mode, Median), Inequality among Arithmetic Mean, Geometric
Mean & Harmonic Mean), Empirical Relationship among Arithmetic Mean Mode and Median).
Quantiles (Quantiles, Deciles, Percentiles). [CLO1-CLO2-CLO3]
6. Measures of Dispersion: Basic concept of measure of dispersion, Type of Dispersion: Absolute
Dispersion and Relative Dispersion. [CLO1-CLO2-CLO3]
7. Measures of Non Central Tendency: Quartiles, Deciles, Percentiles. [CLO1-CLO2]
8. Regression and Correlation: Simple Linear Regression, Multiple Linear Regression,
Coefficient of Correlation. [CLO1-CLO2]
9. Probability: Concepts and Approaches, Laws of Probability (Complementation, Addition and
Multiplicative Laws), Conditional Probability, Bayesian & Total Probability. [CLO1-CLO2]
10. Probability
Distributions: Basic concept of discrete probability distributions and practical application such as
Binomial, Multinomial, Hyper-Geometric, Multi-Hyper-Geometric, Geometric, Negative Binomial,
Poisson Distributions etc. [CLO1-CLO2]
Practical Applications
This course has many applications in different engineering fields.

Lecture Plan Instruction 90% Discussion 10%

Module Topic Lec #

Fundamentals of Statistics
I Introduction to Statistics. Types of Statistics. Presentation of Data; Tabular 1-3
Presentation Frequency Distributions, Graphical Presentation of Data.
Measure of Central & Non Central Tendencies
Central Tendency: Different Tools (Mean, Median, Mode, G.M, A.M, H.M) to
II Measure Central Tendencies. Empirical Relations between AM, GM & HM and AM, 4-6
Median & Mode.
Non Central Tendency: Quartiles, Deciles and Percentiles.
Measure of Dispersion
Absolute Dispersions: Range, Q.D, M.D, S.D, Variance, C.V
III 7-8
Relative Dispersions: Coefficient of Range, Coefficient of Q.D, Coefficient of M.D,
Coefficient of Variation.
Measure of Moments, Skewness & Kurtosis
Moments: Pure Moments about Mean, Raw Moments about Assumed value.
IV Relationship between Pure and Raw Moments. 9-10
Skewness & Kurtosis: Karl Pearson’s and Bowley’s of Skewness. Moments Ratios β 1
and β 2 to examine Skewness & Kurtosis.
Concept of Probability
Concepts of Probability, Axioms of Probability, Different Approaches of Probability.
V 11-12
Relationship of Point Set Theory with Probability. Discrete and Continuous Sample
Space, Events, Types of Events. Different Sample Spaces with numerical problems.
Laws of Probability
Complementation Law, Additive law of probability for two and three Events with
VI Examples. Multiplicative Law for two and three events. Independence of two events, 12-15
Partitions, Probability in different order. Conditional Probability. Bayes Theorem with
application and Numerical Problems.
Random Variable
VII Discrete random variable, Continuous random variable, Discrete Probability
16-18
Distribution, Continuous Probability Distribution. Expected Mean and
Variance.
Probability Distributions
Binomial distribution (Assumptions, density function & application), Multinomial
distribution (Generalized form of Binomial), Hyper-Geometric distribution
VIII (Assumptions, density function & application), Multi Hyper-Geometric distribution
19-28
(Generalized form of Hyper-Geometric), Geometric & Negative Binomial distributions
(Assumptions, Density functions & application), Poisson Distributions (Assumptions,
density function & application), Poisson approximation to Binomial.
Normal Distribution.
 Regression & Correlation Coefficient
Regression: Method of Least squares, Simple and Multiple Linear Regression Models.
28-32
Simple and Multiple Coefficient of Determination.
Correlation: Simple Linear, Multiple and Partial Correlation Coefficients.

COURSE TARGETS
Learning
Teaching Assessment PLO’s to
Module CLO Domain with
Methodology Methodology Target
level
PLO-1,
CLO-1, CLO-2 & Lecture+ Assign, Quiz,
I− X C2 & C3 PLO-2 &
CLO-3 Discussions Exam PLO-5

Course Learning Outcomes Mapped to Program Learning Outcomes

PLOs
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1 C2
CLOs 2 C3
3 C3
4
5

Teaching Methodology
The course learning objectives are achieved with the help of demonstration, discussions,
queries and presentations.

Assessment:
Evaluation will be competency based and student grades will be based on the following
factors.

Quizzes 15%
Assignments 10%
Sessional 25%
Terminal Exam 50%
Total 100%

Student Participation and attendance policy:

11. Attendance must be 80%
12. Students should make every effort to be in class on time.