2 Growth Neoclassical Growth
2 Growth Neoclassical Growth
2 Growth Neoclassical Growth
Carlos Lizama
March 30, 2022
1
Introduction
2
The Neoclassical Growth Model
3
The Neoclassical Growth Model: Introduction
• We will consider the planner’s problem through the lens of dynamic programming.
• The methods used to solve this type of dynamic, infinite horizon problems is an incredible
powerful tool used to solve a wide variety of macro models.
4
Centralized versus decentralized equilibrium
• Later, we will discuss under what conditions these two approaches yield the same
solution.
5
Neoclassical Growth Model: Setup
• Discrete time t = 0, 1, . . .
• The planner’s problem is to choose an infinite sequence for consumption and capital
{ct , kt+1 }∞
t=0 to maximize utility
∞
X
β t u(ct ) (1)
t=0
given k0 , where u(·) is an increase and concanve utility function, β is the discount
factor, ct is consumption, kt is the capital stock, subject to the resource constraint
• What are the planner’s preferences over current consumption and next period’s
capital?
• Suppose we have solve the problem (1) subject to (2) for all possible values of k0 . Then
we could define a function v : R+ → R, where v is the maximized objective function.
• This means that v is such that, for a given k0 , if we solve (1) and obtain the optimal
path {c∗t , kt+1
∗
}∞
t=0 then v satisfy
∞
X
v(k0 ) = β t u(c∗t )
t=0 7
Towards a Recursive formulation
• In terms of the value function, the planner’s problem in period 0 could be written as
c0 + k1 ≤ γ(k0 ), c0 ≥ 0, k1 ≥ 0
and initial capital level k0 , where we have defined γ(k0 ) ≡ f (k0 ) + (1 − δ)k0
• With g defined, we completely describe the dynamics of capital accumulation from any
initial stock k0 .
8
The Recursive formulation: The Bellman equation
• Finally, we can convince ourselves that the function v must satisfy
v(k0 ) = max u(γ(k0 ) − k1 ) + βv(k1 )
0≤k1 ≤γ(k0 )
• Notice that we used the fact that the resource constraint will hold with equality (why?)
• Notice that when we write the problem in this recursive way, time subscripts are
unnecessary: the problem is the same every date. We can rewrite the planner’s
problem with current capital stock k as
v(k) = max u(γ(k) − k 0 ) + βv(k 0 ) (4)
0≤k0 ≤γ(k)
• (4) is the recursive formulation of problem (1). This is a functional equation and is
know as the Bellman equation.
• The study of dynamic optimization problems through the analysis of the functional
equation is called dynamic programming 9
Dynamic Programming
10
A general problem: The Sequence Problem (SP)
• The infinity horizon problems are as follows: choose an infinite sequence {xt+1 }∞
t=0 to
maximize the objective function
∞
max∞
X
β t F (xt , xt+1 ) (5)
{xt+1 }t=0
t=0
subject to
xt+1 ∈ Γ(xt ) ∀t, with x0 ∈ X given (6)
• Let X be the set of all possible values for x, most of the time is just a subset of the
Euclidean space. Let Γ be the correspondence describing feasibility constraints
Γ : X → X, i.e. for each x, Γ(x) is the set of feasible values for x0
• F (xt , xt+1 ) is the current period return and β is the discount factor.
• X, F, Γ, β are the “primitives” of the problem.
• Let’s call any sequence {xt+1 }∞ t=1 a plan. Given x0 ∈ X, define
Π(x0 ) = {{xt+1 }∞t=0 |x t+1 ∈ Γ(x t ), ∀t} be the set of all plans that are feasible from x0 .
11
A general problem: The Recursive Problem
• Corresponding to any such sequence problem, we have a recursive formulation.
• The function v is called the value function, x is the beginning of the period state
variable and y is the control variable (or choice variable). F (x, y) is the current period
return given the state variable x and control variable y.
• We want to study the relationship between these two problems and develop methods
for analyzing them.
Assumption 1
X is a convex subset of Rn . The correspondence Γ : X → X is non-empty, compact-valued,
and continuous. In this case, compact-valued just means Γ(x) ⊂ Rn is closed and bounded.
Assumption 2
The function F : X × X → R is bounded and continuous, and β ∈ (0, 1)
13
The Principle of optimality: definitions
Definition
Supremum function Let’s define the sumpremum function v ∗ : X → R by
∞
sup
X
v ∗ (x0 ) = β t F (xt , xt+1 ) (8)
xt+1 ∈Π(x0 ) t=0
14
Principle of Optimality: Theorems
• The following theorem establishes the equivalence between the supremum function
(8) and the solution of the functional equation (7).
Theorem (1)
Let X, Γ, F and β satisfy Assumption 1 and 2. Then
1. Then the supremum function v ∗ satisfies the function equation (7),
2. If v is a solution of the functional equation and satisfies
then v = v ∗
15
Principle of Optimality: Theorems
• A feasible plan {x∗t+1 } ∈ Π(x0 ) is an optimal plan from x0 if it attains the supremum in
P∞
SP. That is, {x∗t+1 } is an optimal plan if t=0 β ∗ F (x∗t , x∗t+1 ) = v ∗ (x0 )
Theorem (2)
Let X, Γ, F and β satisfy Assumption 1 and 2.
1. Let {x∗t+1 } ∈ Γ(x0 ) be an optimal plan, i.e., it attains the supremum in SP for initial state x0 ,
Then
and limsupt→∞ β t v ∗ (x∗t ) ≤ 0. Then {x∗t+1 } attains the supremum in SP for initial state x0 .
16
Principle of Optimality: Theorems
• Theorem 1 gives the equivalence between the supremum function and the value
function.
• Theorem 2 gives the equivalente between an optimal plan and a plan that satisfies the
function equation with v = v ∗ .
17
Principle of Optimality: Theorems
• Suppose we have a solution v to the functional equation (7). Using v we can define a
policy function g by
18
Principle of Optimality: Theorems
• We can rewrite theorem (2) as follows
Theorem (3)
Let X, Γ, F and β satisfy Assumption 1 and 2. Let
1. Let {x∗t+1 } be an optimal plan. Then {x∗t+1 } is generated by g ∗ , x∗t+1 = g ∗ (x∗t ) ∀t.
2. Any plan generated by g ∗ and satisfying lim supt→∞ β t v ∗ (x∗t ) ≤ 0 is an optimal plan.
• We have establish the tight connection between the solutions of the sequence
problem and the function equation (recursive formulation).
• Uniqueness?
20
Mathematical Preliminaries
Definition (Metric Space)
A metric space is a set S, together with a metric (a distance function) ρ : S × S → R such
that for all x, y, z ∈ S
1. ρ(x, y) ≥ 0 and with equality if and only if x = y.
2. ρ(x, y) = ρ(y, x) (symmetry), and
3. ρ(x, z) ≤ ρ(x, y) + ρ(y, z) (triangle inequality).
Definition (Convergence)
A sequence {xn }∞ n=0 in S, converges to x ∈ S if for each ε > 0 there exists an Nε ∈ N such
that ρ(xn , x) < ε ∀n ≥ Nε . That is xn → x ∈ S if ρ(xn , x) → 0.
Theorem
Every convergent sequence is Cauchy.
Proposition 1
S = Rn with the metric ρ(x, y) = ||x − y|| is a complete metric space.
22
Contraction Mapping
23
The Contraction Mapping Theorem
• Part 1 of the theorem states that a fixed point exists and is unique.
• Part 2 states that starting from any initial point in x0 ∈ S, repeated application of the
contraction T gets you closed and closer to the unique fixed point.
24
The Contraction Mapping Theorem
• We would like to apply this theorem on function spaces to prove existence and
uniqueness of a function. Consider X ⊂ Rn and let’s define C(X) to be the space of
bounded continuous functions f : X → R with the sup norm ||f || = supx∈X |f (x)|
Theorem
C(X) with the sup norm is a complete metric space.
25
Blackwell’s sufficient conditions
26
The Theorem of the Maximum
Theorem (Theorem of the Maximum)
Let X ⊆ Rn and let Y ⊆ Rm . Let φ : X × Y → R be a continuous (single-valued) function, and
let Γ : X → Y be a nonempty, compact-valued, and continuous correspondence.
Define the function h : X → R by
• Furthermore, it can be shown that if φ(x, y) is strictly concave, the solution of the
correspondence is single-valued.
• The policy function is in fact a function, not a correspondence.
• Since it is single-valued and upper-hemi-continuous, it is continuous.
28
Existence and uniqueness of the value function
• in other words, given x, g(x) is the (set of) value(s) of y that attains the maximum.
29
Existence and uniqueness of the value function
v = Tv
• We have defined the operator T so that the value function is a fixed point of this
operator.
30
Existence and uniqueness of the value function
Theorem
Let X, Γ, F and β satisfy assumptions 1-2. Then the operator defined in (11) maps C(X) into
itself
T : C(X) → C(X)
and has a unique fixed point v ∈ C(X),
Tv = v
and for all v0 ∈ C(X),
||T n v0 − v|| ≤ β n ||v0 − v||
, ∀n.
Moreover, given the fixed point v, the policy correspondence g defined in (10) is non-empty,
compact-valued and upper-hemi-continuous.
31
Existence and uniqueness of the value function: proof
• We need to show that the operator T defined in (11) is a contraction on the function
space C(X).
32
Existence and uniqueness of the value function: proof
Note that
33
Existence and uniqueness of the value function: proof
Discounting.
T (f + a)(x) = max {F (x, y) + β(f (y) + a)} = max {F (x, y) + βf (y)} + βa = T f (x) + βa
y∈Γ(x) y∈Γ(x)
Since monotonicity and disconuting are satisfied, T satisfies the Blackwell’s conditions and
is a contraction mapping. Contracting mapping theorem proves that T has a unique fixed
point.
34
Properties of the value function and the policy function
Assumption 3
(i) For every y, F (·, y) is strictly increasing in each of its first n arguments.
35
Properties of the value function and the policy function
Assumption 4
(i) F is concave. That is, for all θ ∈ (0, 1)
(ii) Γ is convex in the sense that for any θ ∈ [0, 1], and x, x0 ∈ X, y ∈ Γ(x) and y 0 ∈ Γ(x0 )
implies θy + (1 − θ)y 0 ∈ Γ(θx + (1 − θ)x0 )
36
Properties of the value function and the policy function
37
The Neoclassical Growth Model (again)
38
Neoclassical Growth model and Dynamic Programming
39
Neoclassical Growth
• The problem is
∞
max∞
X
β t u(f (kt ) + (1 − δ)kt − kt+1 )
{kt+1 }t=0
t=0
V (k) = max
0
{u(f (k) + (1 − δ)k − k 0 ) + V (k 0 )}
k
40
Solving the Neoclassical Growth Model
V (k) = max
0
{u(f (k) + (1 − δ)k − k 0 ) + V (k 0 )}
k
• The F.O.C. is
−uc (c) + βV 0 (k 0 ) = 0
• Envelope theorem
41
Envelope Theorem
dV (k)
V 0 (k) = = uc (c)(fk (k) + (1 − δ) − g 0 (k)) + βV 0 (g(k))g 0 (k)
dk
= uc (c)(fk (k) + 1 − δ) + g 0 (k) (−uc (c) + βV 0 (k 0 ))
| {z }
=0 F OC
0
V (k) = uc (c)(fk (k) + 1 − δ)
42
The Euler Equation
• Using the F.O.C. and the Envelope Condition we obtain
• It tells us that the optimal allocation of consumption/savings is such that the marginal
utility from consumption today must be equal to the discounted marginal utility of
consumption tomorrow, adjusted by the marginal gross rate of capital and the discount
factor.
44
Transversality Condition
• Constrained optimization problem
T
X T
X T
X
L= β t u(ct ) + λt [f (kt ) + (1 − δ)kt − ct − kt+1 ] + µt kt+1
t=0 t=0 t=0
ct : 0 = β t u0 (ct ) − λt
kt+1 : 0 = −λt + λt+1 [f 0 (kt+1 ) + (1 − δ)] + µt
kT +1 : 0 = −λT + µT
45
Transversality condition
• Optimal cT
λT = β T u0 (cT )
• Optimal kT +1
µT = λT = β T u0 (cT )
• Complementary slackness
β T u0 (cT )kT +1 = 0
• The present discount utility value of “left over” resources must be equal to zero.
46
Characterizing the solution
47
Steady State and Balanced Growth Path
48
Practical Dynamic Programming:
Solving the Neoclassical Growth Model
49
Solving dynamic programming problems
• Guess and verify. Literally, you guess and verify that the proposed solution is in fact a
solution of the problem. In practice, not very useful.
• Value function iteration. This relies on iterating on the value function, we know that
the operator T is a contraction, so we know that iterating on this operator converges
to the true solution.
• Policy function iteration. Based on similar theory, but instead of solving the value
function, we iterate on the policy function.
50
Guess and verify
51
Guess and verify
• The F.O.C.
1 1
− 0
+ βB 0
kα −k k
• Hence,
βB
k0 = kα
1 + βB
52
Guess and verify
• Evaluate the solution:
βB βB
V (k) = log k −α
k α
+ β A + B log k α
1 + βB 1 + βB
kα
βB
V (k) = log + βA + βB log kα
1 + βB 1 + βB
βB
= − log(1 + βB) + βA + βB log + (1 + βB)α log(k)
1 + βB | {z }
| {z } ≡B
≡A
• Therefore,
α
B=
1 − αβ
1 αβ
A= log(1 − αβ) + log(αβ)
1−β 1 − αβ
• Suppose we approximate the continuous state space K with a finite grid of possible
capital stocks kmin < . . . < ki < . . . < kmax , i = 1, . . . , n, i.e. a vector of size n.
• Consider ki a typical element of the grid of capital and vi a typical element of the value
function.
• Let cij be the consumption if current capital is k = ki and capital chosen for next
period is k = kj , cij = f (ki ) − kj . We need to be careful to respect the feasibility
constraints 0 ≤ kj ≤ f (ki ).
• Let uij denote the flow utility associated with cij , so it is an n × n matrix.
54
Value function iteration: numerical implementation
vi = max{uij + βvj }
j
55
Value function iteration: numerical implementation
56
Value function iteration: numerical implementation
• The larger the state space, the slowest it becomes. This algorithm suffers severely from
curse of dimensionality.
• Instead of fully discretize space and decisions, we could interpolate between nodes.
This is much more precise, but also slower.
57
Policy function iteration
• We have just solved a functional equation. The unknown is a function.
• Instead of solving the functional equation associated to the value function, we could
solve the functional equation associated to the policy function.
uc (fk (kt ) + (1 − δ)kt − g(kt )) = β(fk (kk+1 ) + (1 − δ))uc (fk (kt+1 ) + (1 − δ)kt+1 − g(kt+1 ))
• The same idea, start with a guess for g n and update the guess by finding g n+1 that
satisfy this equation.
• Note that we have not proved that this algorithm converges!! In general, it does, even
though we have not shown a proof.
59
Kaldor’s Facts
• In the balanced growth path, our models have to be consistent with some basics facts
about growth, called Kaldor’s facts.
• Kaldor’s facts:
1. Labor productivity has grown at a sustained rate.
2. Capital per worker has also grown at a sustained rate.
3. The real interest rate, or the return on capital, has been stable.
4. The ratio of capital to output has also been stable.
5. Capital and labor share have capture stable shares of national income.
6. Among the fast growing countries of the world, there is an appreciable variation in the rate
of growth, of the order of 2-5 percent.
60
Kaldor’s facts
• Our models should be able to account for these facts.
1. Labor productivity has grown at a sustained rate.
Y
⇒ L
grows at a sustained rate.
2. Capital per worker has also grown at a sustained rate.
K
⇒ L
grows at a sustained rate
3. The real interest rate, or the return on capital, has been stable.
⇒ r = f 0 (k) − δ is constant.
4. The ratio of capital to output has also been stable.
K
Y
has been constant.
5. Capital and labor share have capture stable shares of national income.
For instance, it can be shown that when F (Kt , Lt ) = Ktα L1−α
t , capital share = α and labor
share = (1 − α)
6. Among the fast growing countries of the world, there is an appreciable variation in the
rate of growth, of the order of 2-5 percent.
61
More on BGP
62
Usawa’s Theorem
Theorem (Usawa’s Theorem)
Consider a growth model with aggregate production function Yt = F̃ (Ãt , Kt , Lt ) with CRS in Kt
and Lt . Population grows at a constant rate Lt+1 = (1 + n)Lt . The aggregate resource
constraint is
Ct + Kt+1 − (1 − δ)Kt = Yt
Yt = F (Kt , At Lt )
1+gY
with At+1 = (1 + gA )At with (1 + gA ) = 1+n
63
Uzawa´s Theorem: Proof, part 1.
1. gY = gC = gK
64
Uzawa’s Theorem: Proof, part 2.
2.
Yt Yt Yt Yt
Yt = YT · = F̃ ÃT , KT , LT = F̃ ÃT , Kt , LT
YT YT YT YT
Yt LT
Define At ≡ L t YT and F (Kt , At Lt ) ≡ F̃ (ÃT , Kt , At Lt ). By construction, F is
65
Neoclassical growth model and endogenous labor supply
• Households care not only about consumption, but also about leisure.
• Households solve
∞
max
X
β t u(ct , 1 − ht )
ct ,ht ,kt+1
t=0
s.t. ct + kt+1 = f (kt , ht ) + (1 − δ)kt
0 ≤ ht ≤ 1
ct ≥ 0, kt+1 ≥ 0
• Is ht a state or a control?
66
NGM with labor supply
• Recursive formulation
• F.O.C.
∂V
0= = −u1 (c, 1 − h) + βV1 (k 0 )
∂k 0
∂V
0= = u1 (c, 1 − h)f2 (k, h) − u2 (c, 1 − h)
∂h
• Envelope theorem
67
NGM with labor supply
• Using the F.O.C. w.r.t k 0 and the envelope condition we obtain
u1 (c, 1 − h) = β(1 + f1 (k 0 , h0 ) − δ)u1 (c0 , 1 − h0 )
• It can be shown that in a decentralized equilibrium, w is the wage and it equals the
marginal productivity of labor f2 (k, h).
• These conditions and the transversality condition determine the equilibrium path of
this economy. 68
NGM with labor supply: condition on preferences
• We showed that a technical change must be labor augmenting to be consistent with a
balanced growth path.
• King, Plosser, and Rebelo (1988) show that preferences must be of the following form
C 1−σ
1−σ v(L) if σ > 0, σ 6= 1
u(C, L) =
log(C) + v(L)
where C is consumption and L is leisure, with v(L) and increasing and concave
function.
69
Endogenous growth
70
Endogenous growth
• In Solow growth model and the neoclassical growth model, growth is driven by
technology At . At evolves exogenously.
71