02-Computer Aided Estimating
02-Computer Aided Estimating
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MicroEstimating
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Would you believe that many shop estimators are capable of producing more accurate estimates
than the software they use to do so?
Surprised? That scenario is entirely possible. Unless you understand the strategies used to 'build'
a computer-aided estimate, that statement probably will surprise you. And as with any software,
there's also the ever present, added admonition of “garbage in, garbage out.”
Nonetheless, during the past ten years, the value of computer aided estimating has grown as a
manufacturing tool, as manufacturers and job shop owners realized the varied benefits this
software brings.
Published studies in trade magazines often discuss
user's perceptions of direct benefits they've seen.
Still, this is clear: among both prospective- and
existing-users of estimating software, most do not
understand how the software prepares an estimate,
what makes a computer estimate accurate, or the
different emphases played by the machine tool, the
process, or the material in preparing the computer
estimate.
One wonders how anyone selects the proper
package for their needs from among the available
types and variations of software featuring
“estimating” capabilities today. In fact, it is likely that
many perspective users may not understand that
“estimating” software may range from products that The estimate pricing form summarizes
simply replace a pencil and pad, to software called all job costs. Here the estimator assigns
“standards-based,” to systems that might go so far multiple efficiency ratings for setup and
as to simulate the entire machining or fabricating production, based upon quantities. He
process. may consider per piece costs and adjust
for multiple setups. When the estimator
has chosen multiple methods, this screen
identifies the ideal method by quantity.
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What issues must a software estimating program consider?
To give you a quick idea of the complexities that can be involved, here's a simple example for
drilling a half-inch hole, three inches deep. Will the software automatically give you a different
cycle time for a CNC Swiss machine than it does for a turret lathe or an engine lathe? Moreover,
will that be by machine vendor's model and type? Will it give a different time for a different model?
When cycle time is for a specific model, the program times can be quite close.
Those times can be closer yet using machine tool emulation. Emulation is difficult, for it involves
more than simply altering rapid travel rates.
Finally, will the software arrive at a different time for the same metal whether or not it has been
heat treated? If the tool is a carbide or high-speed drill? Or when requiring a different micro-finish
on your turn?
Even more difficult is the process of accounting for the length-to-diameter ratio on an end mill. The
feed/speed books do not address this issue. For example, perhaps the plunging depths are based
upon 1-½ X diameter. What if your depth is ½ X or 3 X the diameter into the stock? The feed rate
will change. Is it necessary for the estimating program have a provision to deal with that situation?
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even to their customers. With this article, we'd like to suggest a foundation for an industry-wide
understanding of the computer-aided estimating process.
In the quoting/estimating arena, today we find quoting programs and several classes of estimating
software. Quoting programs quickly provide prices for quoting. (See Addendum I.) Within the
estimating classification, some software systems are standards-based, some are engineering-
based, and some exhibit genuine intelligence. Today, some programs also are evolving from one
form toward another, as even software developers begin to better understand the actual
estimating process.
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Differentiating between the engineering-based and the “intelligent” packages is harder. Both
systems come up with an answer — for the portion(s) of the process that they compute.
Determining — rather, knowing how to determine — how thorough the estimating program can be,
is far more difficult.
Engineering-based estimating
The engineering-based estimating programs use the same formulae used when manual
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estimators need a precise cost. They are unchangeable, based on the laws of mechanics. Given a
drill diameter and style, the depth of hole, the material, and the machine doing the drilling, there
can be only one correct time. The formula to derive that time never changes. Feed rates and
surface footage-rates may change; once those rates are set, the math is constant. The same is
true of idle times. For different machines, the rates may differ, but the movements are the same.
While a standards-based system having a standard for every half inch of hole depth gives ½- inch
accuracy (See Addendum II.), in an engineering-based system, setting up the core datacovers any
hole, at any depth, and is accurate in every situation. Period. There's no stated or implied
disclaimer of being “within a half an inch.” The engineering-based system may seem to demand
more setup than a standards-based system. However, you could never set up enough standards
to reach the same level of accuracy. There is a difference in the time needed to drill a one-inch
hole and a hole 1.021 inch deep, and the engineering approach can be 100% correct -- but the
standards-based approach can only be approximate.
Being engineering-based, however, doesn't guarantee perfection. Speeds and feeds data differ for
every material, every tool, every machine type. If an engineering-based estimating program
doesn't provide speeds and feeds data for every material, but rather has assigned them on the
basis of material groups, then accuracy is sacrificed.
While any engineer can look up the feed rate for 12L14 steel, that data is irrelevant without
knowing the machine type. Would not use the same feed rate on a CNC lathe as on a screw
machine? The speeds and feeds data is only the starting point. If every material is given its own
speed and feed and multiple classes, you can change 12L14 to represent your shop's experience,
without affecting 12L50. That would not be possible in any engineering-based system that
grouped speeds and feeds by material type.
The engineering-based computer-aided
estimating system mimics the correct manual
estimating method, using the same equations.
The added benefit of computer aided
estimating is its ability to take more into
account, such as idle time movements or rapid
travel rates, to retain the correct information,
and to always use the correct data. These
examples are simply some of the more difficult
to account for times, since there are so many.
Intelligent emulation
Having the capability to account for issues
like rapid travel and complex idle times
defines the difference between the
engineering-based and the estimating A CNC Processing editor screen lets an
systems that emulate the machines — we estimator review the process and to try what-
call this intelligent emulation. if scenarios.
Changing any speeds or feeds here, for
Compared to standards-based estimating,
example, will instantly change the Cycle Time
engineering-based is more comprehensive,
and Gross Production figures at the bottom
and more accurate. An approach based upon
of the screen – the estimator knows
intelligent simulation will improve upon the
immediately the results of his changes.
engineering-based results, but requires the
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same amount of data from the user, the same effort for initial setup. It's claim for being closer to
the actual time is that it is a closer representation to the real world. In its estimate, it attempts to
include everything significant that will happen, as opposed to what should happen. When it comes
to estimating, you really don't care that it should take one minute -- you care about how long it will
take.
If you rely on unchangeable standards, you're letting the computer tell you how long something
should take, rather than the software determining how long it does take. Once again, it comes
down to the estimator knowing the time the machinist requires for each step. That's where
intelligent simulation attempts to determine how long it really will take as opposed to how long it
should take.
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The determinations that should be made:
Ÿ How the software calculates cycle time
Ÿ Does it calculate cycle time for specific types of machines (CNC mill, Bridgeport)
Ÿ Does it calculate a cycle time for a specific model within a type (model A or B A
genuinelyintelligent system accounts for:
Ÿ Set up time
Ÿ Idle time
Ÿ Complete machine time for the correct type and model of machine
Ÿ Available horsepower
Ÿ Minimum and maximum RPM and feed
Ÿ Fixed or variable RPMs and feed rates
Ÿ Special lever/gear/control settings or rules
Such software literally emulates the machine's movements, stepping through them one at a time.
For example, to estimate a facing operation, the program doesn't resort to a single predefined
equation; rather it simulates what will actually happen by calculating every revolution and
recording the time.
To determine the correct, total time, for example, the estimating program literally models the
operation for each process involved and the software loops through every turn the machine will
make, making adjustments at every step to account for RPM, feed, minimums, maximums and
soforth. To do constant surface footage correctly, the program computes a new RPM for every
revolution and considers minimum and maximum RPM at each step. The program must know
things like how long it takes to reach top speed, as well as what the top speed is for the type of
tooling being used; how long to remain at top speed; and how long it will take to reach center. In
other words, the SFM formula at exact center calculates an infinite RPM (which is not possible),
and it steps down from there towards the outside diameter of the cut. The machine maximum
RPM must be considered. The estimating loop goes through every movement, whether for lathe or
pocket milling. Machine tool emulation is the basis of the estimate's accuracy, and it is based upon
the combination of all pertinent parameters at every moment in the operation.
Similar, stand-alone software called “tool path optimization” software, is considered fairly new
today, when applied to NC output from CAD/CAM programs. However, this feature also should be
the basis of any comprehensive computer-aided estimating program — and there it is referred to
as machine tool emulation. That's what an intelligent, engineering-based estimating program
does. Some have been doing so for a long time.
In the end, a choice must be made between accuracy and economy. Remember, however, that
each time you send out a quote, you bet your business on the accuracy of the times in the
estimate.
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Addendum – What is 'quoting'?
Precisely, what is “quoting” software? To begin with, quoting software can be very simplistic -- as
simple as a spreadsheet. It is quite fast, in fact quoting software is the fastest method for
obtaining a customer price, next to guessing. It is not standards-based, but can provide a
consistent template to follow. Still, the quotes can be only as good as the guesses that the person
enters. Not being standards-based indicates that your guess today could be different from your
guess tomorrow. Quoting software is not expected to provide consistently accurate estimates, only
a speedy means of obtaining a quote for a customer.
Why would you use quoting software? Primarily for simplicity, often for the software's low cost, and
perhaps to help employees gain familiarity with the quoting process. Quoting software might only
be the front end of a shop management software system -- a speedy means of entering the basic
part information required to produce a quote, and which also is needed by other modules of the
shop management software. Since there are no databases to set up, little of your time goes
toward setup. The results typically will be no more complex than what you can do on a
spreadsheet.
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from 1-5 inches. But what's the point? This standard is too broad, so why not begin adding more
and more precise standards? That means there will be more to be entered, more to be
maintained, and users might easily end up with a database containing 10's of thousands of
standards. And that's quite likely, considering the fact that there are thousands of material types,
each requiring a standard.
That would be a pure standards-based approach to estimating, and that is impractical. So,
standards-based programs may use interpolation to determine the time for the 1.5” hole from the
1.0” standard.
Realistically, you can't take pure ratio's for they do not consider the travel times, nor chip removal
times. Such a method would be a combination between a pure standards-based approach, where
there is no interpolation of the data, and a standards-based with interpolation. Standards-based
without interpolation uses the standards as provided. Standards-based with interpolation indicates
that some manipulation has occurred using the standard, based upon the specific circumstances
of the job. Now, here's the danger with interpolation: it can invalidate a standard, completely, for a
standard is a standard only if it retains its value. Any modification, whether by guessing or by
interpolation, destroys the standard and there no longer is reliability.
For a standards-based estimating system, its accuracy is based on how much time you put into it.
In reality, the time it will take a user to correctly set up a standards-based package will rule out
your setting it up correctly. For example, all it takes is a change in cutting fluid to invalidate your
standards, for suddenly everything is different. You finally got your half a million standards set up
and purchasing changes cutting fluids because of price or performance. And don't forget: the cut
time is different for different machines -- say a 5 a 10 HP lathe -- and the idle times are different.
The possibilities are endless.
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gravity, and possibly highlight other potential design or manufacturing challenges. Solids are
already at the next level, today, where finite element analyses can help designers make parts
faster, stronger and more efficiently. A solids program gives you the power of information.
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Simulation
Note: Rapid travel consists of acceleration time + rapid travel rate based on rate increasing
with distance + deceleration time
Note: All feed rates consider maximum cutting feed rate and horsepower of machine
1. Rapid approach part from tool home position
2. Plunge cut - .750 diameter x 1.00 deep (plus approach distance) using plunge feed rate
3. First pass - .750 wide slot x 3.5 long 100% buried using slot feed rate adjusted for axial
depth
4. Step over - .750 wide step over .375 deep (50% of cutter) using slot feed rate
5. Peripheral pass - 3.50 long pass at .375 radial depth using peripheral feed rate
6. Repeat steps 4 and 5 for 6 peripheral passes
7. Last peripheral pass - Only a partial pass remains 3.50 long at .250 deep using new
peripheral feed rate
8. Rapid move away from part .020 for clearance
9. Rapid travel back to original plunge location to begin second axial pass
10. Repeat steps 2 - 9 for second axial pass
11. Only .250 remains for semi finish pass, so repeat steps 2 - 9 using .250 axial doc and
adjust feed rates accordingly
12. Rapid out of pocket 2.25 plus approach for clearance
13.Rapid back to home position for tool change if required
Rough Turning Example
3.500” stock size
3.075” diameter x 1.00 long
2.600” diameter x 1.00 long
2.150” diameter x .750 long
.125” radial depth of cut/pass Constant SFM
.005 radial depth left for grinding
Standards based
1. Standard time to turn 3.5” diameter .5 deep factored for actual 3.075 diameter and .2125
depth
2. Standard time to turn 3.0” diameter .5 deep factored for actual 2.600 diameter and .2375
depth
3. Standard time to turn 2.5” diameter .5 deep factored for actual 2.150 diameter and .2250
depth
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Engineering based - dumb
1. 2 passes at 3.500 diameter x 2.750 long/feed rate +
2. 3 passes at 3.075 diameter x 1.750 long/feed rate +
3. 2 passes at 2.600 diameter/feed rate x .750 long = time
Simulation
Note: Rapid travel consists of acceleration time + rapid travel rate based on rate increasing
with distance + deceleration time
Note: All feed rates consider maximum cutting feed rate and horsepower of machine Note:
RPM is recalculated at each depth of cut to allow for constant SFM
Note: RPM is constantly compared to machine maximum and minimum for conflict Note:
RPM is calculated at cutting point of tool (diameter - doc. *2)
Note: Approach distance (.100) is added to each pass
1. Rapid travel from home position to .100 away from face of part
2. Turn 3.250 diameter x 2.850 long at .125 doc
3. Machine up face .125 + .010 to clean up the face and retract the tool
4. Rapid 2.850 back to face of part and down to next cutting diameter
5. Only .0775 remains on first diameter after leaving .005 grinding stock so look ahead to
next diameter. Turn 3.00 diameter 1.85 long at .125 doc, face from 3.00 to 3.080, turn 1
inch at .0775 doc and face up .0775 + .010 to clean up face and retract tool. (Feed rate
varies with doc and RPM is calculated appropriately including facing cuts)
6. Rapid 1.850 back to face of part and down to next cutting diameter
7. Turn 2.750 diameter 1.850 long at .125 doc and face up .125 + .010
8. Only .070 remains on the second diameter, so look ahead to next diameter. Turn 2.50
diameter .850 long at .125 doc, face from 2.50 to 2.605, turn 1 inch at .070 doc and face
up .070 + .010
9. Rapid 1.850 back to face of part and down to next cutting diameter
10. Turn 2.250 diameter .850 long at .125 doc and face up .125 + .010
11. Only .045 remains on the third diameter, so turn 2.160 diameter .850 long and face up
.045 + .010 to clean the face and retract the tool
12. Rapid back to home position for next tool change if required
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This screen represents a
Davenport screw machine to
the estimator. Across the top
of the screen are varieties of
tools that can be assigned to
this machine's five stations.
After choosing tools for each
of the five stations, the
estimator assigns an
operation (form, Cutoff) to
each cross slide. With
minimum input, the estimating
does the work and also
provides the graphical
analysis tools that help the
estimator select the best
machine for the ideal results.
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SOFTWARE FUNCTION CAPABILITY CHECKLIST
To Assist in the Software Evaluation Process
Developed by and reprinted with permission of the PMPA's Software User's Group
ESTIMATING
A. General
1. Quote Log
2. Quotes Due Report
B. Header Information
1. Integrated to customer file
2. Quote # internally assigned
3. Salesman's commission file
C. Material
1. Material weight calculated
2. Scrap factor estimated
3. Scrap factor calculated
4. Scrap value calculated
5. Number of quantity fields
D. Operations
1. Sequence numbers in multiples of 10
2. Work Center numbers
3. Operation numbers
4. Operation description field
5. Setup hours and rate override ability
6. Cycle time in seconds calculation
7. Cycle time in seconds estimated
8. Production rate estimated
9. Production rate calculated
10. Production rate in Pcs/Hr
11. Efficiency factor for each workcenter
12. Override default efficiency factor
13. Efficiency factor based on bar loading/tool life
14. Factor for # machines attended by operator
E. Tooling Costs
1. Special tooling amortization option
2. Special tooling charged to customer option
3. Perishable tooling amortization option
4. Description field
continued...
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F. Outside operations
1. Minimum charges
2. Price per unit
3. Surcharge option
4. Freight charge
5. Certification required (Y or N) field
6. Final cost calculation
G. Optional Information
1. Estimated annual usage
2. Inventory carrying charge (%/yr) constant
3. Calculate Economic Production Qty (EPQ)
4. Calculate Economic Order Qty (EOQ)
H.Reports
1. Quote Log or Status Report
2. Estimate with details
3. Quote from or letter for customer
4. Monthly Quote Summary
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Manufacturing success means beating the competition, not yourself. To be profitable, you must be
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Overpriced estimates eliminate you. Even worse, getting the contract with numbers that don’t
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five profitable jobs are just making up for the loss.
MicroEstimating has been helping small and large businesses improve profitability for the nearly
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