Continuous random variables

Andrew Thangaraj

IIT Madras

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 Subsection 1

Introduction

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Why continuous random variables?
Consider a discrete random variable X taking values in an alphabet X
Suppose that |X | is growing very large and unwieldy for calculations

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Why continuous random variables?
Consider a discrete random variable X taking values in an alphabet X
Suppose that |X | is growing very large and unwieldy for calculations
Example 1
I Metoerite weight
F 0.01 grams to 60 tons
F Data available for 45000+ meteorites
F Weights spread out over a large range

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Why continuous random variables?
Consider a discrete random variable X taking values in an alphabet X
Suppose that |X | is growing very large and unwieldy for calculations
Example 1
I Metoerite weight
F 0.01 grams to 60 tons
F Data available for 45000+ meteorites
F Weights spread out over a large range

Example 2
I Binomial(n, p)
F n grows very large
F p is a constant
F can happen in Bernoulli trials

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Why continuous random variables?
Consider a discrete random variable X taking values in an alphabet X
Suppose that |X | is growing very large and unwieldy for calculations
Example 1
I Metoerite weight
F 0.01 grams to 60 tons
F Data available for 45000+ meteorites
F Weights spread out over a large range

Example 2
I Binomial(n, p)
F n grows very large
F p is a constant
F can happen in Bernoulli trials

Is there a way to simplify the descriptions of these random-like

phenomena?
I Yes! But we need to give up something. . .

Andrew Thangaraj (IIT Madras) Continuous random variables 3 / 27

Meteorite data
Preprocessing: Take logarithms (log2 )
I Range: from [0.01, 60000000] to [−6.6, 25.8]
I Still, we have 45000+ data

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Meteorite data
Preprocessing: Take logarithms (log2 )
I Range: from [0.01, 60000000] to [−6.6, 25.8]
I Still, we have 45000+ data

Main idea: Move from individual values to intervals of values

I Divide [−6.6, 25.8] into ≈ 100 intervals
F [−6.6, −6.3], [−6.3, −6], . . . , [25.5, 25.8]
I Count the number of values falling inside each interval

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Meteorite data
Preprocessing: Take logarithms (log2 )
I Range: from [0.01, 60000000] to [−6.6, 25.8]
I Still, we have 45000+ data

Main idea: Move from individual values to intervals of values

I Divide [−6.6, 25.8] into ≈ 100 intervals
F [−6.6, −6.3], [−6.3, −6], . . . , [25.5, 25.8]
I Count the number of values falling inside each interval

Histogram of log of weights

Describe shape of the
histogram instead of individual
values
What do we give up? Precision
is reduced

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Bernoulli trials, n = 100, p = 0.5

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Bernoulli trials, n = 100, p = 0.5

Calculations with the PMF is not very easy even in this case
Working with intervals and histograms can be much simpler

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 Subsection 2

Cumulative distribution function

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CDF of a random variable

Definition (CDF of a random variable)

The Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of a random variable X ,
denoted FX (x ), is a function from R to [0, 1], defined as

FX (x ) = P(X ≤ x ).

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CDF of a random variable

Definition (CDF of a random variable)

The Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of a random variable X ,
denoted FX (x ), is a function from R to [0, 1], defined as

FX (x ) = P(X ≤ x ).

Properties
FX (b) − FX (a) = P(a < X ≤ b)
FX : non-decreasing function taking non-negative values
As x → −∞, FX goes to 0.
As x → ∞, FX goes to 1.

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Example: Bernoulli random variable

1−p p
X ∼ { 0 , 1}


0

 x <0
FX (x ) = 1−p 0≤x <1

1≤x

1

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Example: Throw a die

1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6 1/6

X ∼{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}


0

 x <1

1/6 1≤x <2






2/6


 2≤x <3
FX (x ) = 3/6 3 ≤ x < 4

4/6 4 ≤ x < 5






5/6 5 ≤ x < 6





6≤x

1

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CDF of a discrete random variable
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
X ∼ {x1 , x2 , x3 , x4 , x5 }

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CDF of a discrete random variable
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
X ∼ {x1 , x2 , x3 , x4 , x5 }

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Computing probability of intervals using CDF

X ∼ Uniform{1, 2, . . . , 100}


0

 x ≤0
FX (x ) = k/100 k ≤ x < k + 1, k = 1, 2, . . . , 99

x ≥ 100

1

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Computing probability of intervals using CDF

X ∼ Uniform{1, 2, . . . , 100}


0

 x ≤0
FX (x ) = k/100 k ≤ x < k + 1, k = 1, 2, . . . , 99

x ≥ 100

1

P(3 < X ≤ 10) = FX (10) − FX (3) = 7/100

P(3.2 < X ≤ 10.6) = FX (10.6) − FX (3.2) = 7/100
P(X ≤ 17) = FX (17) = 17/100
P(X ≤ 17.3) = FX (17.3) = 17/100
P(X > 87) = 1 − FX (87) = 13/100
P(X > 87.4) = 1 − FX (87.4) = 13/100

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Large alphabet: Binomial(n, 0.6)

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Large alphabet: Meteorite data

Histogram of weights CDF of weight distribution

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Cumulative Distribution Functions

Definition (CDF)
A function F : R → [0, 1] is said to be a Cumulative Distribution Function
(CDF) if
1 F is a non-decreasing function taking values between 0 and 1.

2 As x → −∞, F goes to 0.
x
3 As x → ∞, F goes to 1.
x
4 Technical: F is continuous from the right.

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Cumulative Distribution Functions

Definition (CDF)
A function F : R → [0, 1] is said to be a Cumulative Distribution Function
(CDF) if
1 F is a non-decreasing function taking values between 0 and 1.

2 As x → −∞, F goes to 0.
x
3 As x → ∞, F goes to 1.
x
4 Technical: F is continuous from the right.

Definition motivated by CDF of a random variable defined earlier

A general CDF need not be like a CDF of a discrete random variable
I No need for a step-like structure
I Can be smooth and continuous

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Examples of valid CDFs

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Examples of valid CDFs

Continuous CDFs appear to be close approximations to CDFs of

discrete random variables, particularly when alphabet grows.
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Probability of intervals using continuous CDF

X ∼ Uniform{1, 2, . . . , 100}


0
 x ≤0 


0
 x ≤0
k/100 k ≤x <k +1
 
FX (x ) = F (x ) = x /100 0 ≤ x ≤ 100
 k = 1, . . . , 99 
x ≥ 100

 
1

1 x ≥ 100



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Probability of intervals using continuous CDF

X ∼ Uniform{1, 2, . . . , 100}


0
 x ≤0 


0
 x ≤0
k/100 k ≤x <k +1
 
FX (x ) = F (x ) = x /100 0 ≤ x ≤ 100
 k = 1, . . . , 99 
x ≥ 100

 
1

1 x ≥ 100



P(3 < X ≤ 10) = FX (10) − FX (3) = 7/100 = F (10) − F (3)

P(3.2 < X ≤ 10.6) = FX (10.6) − FX (3.2) = 7/100 ≈
F (10.6) − F (3.2) = 7.4/100
P(X ≤ 17.3) = FX (17.3) = 17/100 ≈ F (17.3) = 17.3/100

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Probability of intervals using continuous CDF

X ∼ Uniform{1, 2, . . . , 100}


0
 x ≤0 


0
 x ≤0
k/100 k ≤x <k +1
 
FX (x ) = F (x ) = x /100 0 ≤ x ≤ 100
 k = 1, . . . , 99 
x ≥ 100

 
1

1 x ≥ 100



P(3 < X ≤ 10) = FX (10) − FX (3) = 7/100 = F (10) − F (3)

P(3.2 < X ≤ 10.6) = FX (10.6) − FX (3.2) = 7/100 ≈
F (10.6) − F (3.2) = 7.4/100
P(X ≤ 17.3) = FX (17.3) = 17/100 ≈ F (17.3) = 17.3/100
Simpler continuous CDF approximates prob of intervals!

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Binomial using continuous CDF

X ∼ Binomial(100, 0.6)

k 1
!
X 100 F (x ) =
FX (k) = (0.6)j (0.4)n−j 
−1.65451(x −60)

j=0
j 1 + exp √
24

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Binomial using continuous CDF

X ∼ Binomial(100, 0.6)

k 1
!
X 100 F (x ) =
FX (k) = (0.6)j (0.4)n−j 
−1.65451(x −60)

j=0
j 1 + exp √
24

P(40 < X ≤ 50) = 0.0271, F (50) − F (40) = 0.0318

P(50 < X ≤ 60) = 0.5108, F (60) − F (50) = 0.4670
P(60 < X ≤ 70) = 0.4473, F (70) − F (60) = 0.4670
P(70 < X ≤ 80) = 0.0148, F (80) − F (70) = 0.0318

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Binomial using continuous CDF

X ∼ Binomial(100, 0.6)

k 1
!
X 100 F (x ) =
FX (k) = (0.6)j (0.4)n−j 
−1.65451(x −60)

j=0
j 1 + exp √
24

P(40 < X ≤ 50) = 0.0271, F (50) − F (40) = 0.0318

P(50 < X ≤ 60) = 0.5108, F (60) − F (50) = 0.4670
P(60 < X ≤ 70) = 0.4473, F (70) − F (60) = 0.4670
P(70 < X ≤ 80) = 0.0148, F (80) − F (70) = 0.0318
Better approximations are possible, partcularly as n grows!

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 Subsection 3

General random variables and Continuous random variables

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CDFs and random variables

Theorem (Random variable with CDF F (x ))

Given a valid CDF F (x ), there exists a random variable X taking values in
R such that
P(X ≤ x ) = F (x ).

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CDFs and random variables

Theorem (Random variable with CDF F (x ))

Given a valid CDF F (x ), there exists a random variable X taking values in
R such that
P(X ≤ x ) = F (x ).

Properties
P(a < X ≤ b) = F (b) − F (a)

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CDFs and random variables

Theorem (Random variable with CDF F (x ))

Given a valid CDF F (x ), there exists a random variable X taking values in
R such that
P(X ≤ x ) = F (x ).

Properties
P(a < X ≤ b) = F (b) − F (a)
If F (x ) rises from F1 to F2 at x1 , P(X = x1 ) = F2 − F1

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CDFs and random variables

Theorem (Random variable with CDF F (x ))

Given a valid CDF F (x ), there exists a random variable X taking values in
R such that
P(X ≤ x ) = F (x ).

Properties
P(a < X ≤ b) = F (b) − F (a)
If F (x ) rises from F1 to F2 at x1 , P(X = x1 ) = F2 − F1
If F (x ) is continuous at x0 , P(X = x0 ) = 0 (non-intuitive!)

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Example: Random variable X with CDF F (x )


0 x <0


F (x ) = 0.5 + 0.1x 0≤x ≤5


1 x >5

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Example: Random variable X with CDF F (x )


0 x <0


F (x ) = 0.5 + 0.1x 0≤x ≤5


1 x >5

P(X = 0) = 0.5

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Example: Random variable X with CDF F (x )


0 x <0


F (x ) = 0.5 + 0.1x 0≤x ≤5


1 x >5

P(X = 0) = 0.5
P(1.99 < X ≤ 2.01) = F (2.01) − F (1.99) = 0.002

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Example: Random variable X with CDF F (x )


0 x <0


F (x ) = 0.5 + 0.1x 0≤x ≤5


1 x >5

P(X = 0) = 0.5
P(1.99 < X ≤ 2.01) = F (2.01) − F (1.99) = 0.002
I Value with finite precision taken with positive probability

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Example: Random variable X with CDF F (x )


0 x <0


F (x ) = 0.5 + 0.1x 0≤x ≤5


1 x >5

P(X = 0) = 0.5
P(1.99 < X ≤ 2.01) = F (2.01) − F (1.99) = 0.002
I Value with finite precision taken with positive probability
P(1.9999999 < X ≤ 2.0000001) = 0.00000002

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Example: Random variable X with CDF F (x )


0 x <0


F (x ) = 0.5 + 0.1x 0≤x ≤5


1 x >5

P(X = 0) = 0.5
P(1.99 < X ≤ 2.01) = F (2.01) − F (1.99) = 0.002
I Value with finite precision taken with positive probability
P(1.9999999 < X ≤ 2.0000001) = 0.00000002
I As precision increases, probability decreases

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Example: Random variable X with CDF F (x )


0 x <0


F (x ) = 0.5 + 0.1x 0≤x ≤5


1 x >5

P(X = 0) = 0.5
P(1.99 < X ≤ 2.01) = F (2.01) − F (1.99) = 0.002
I Value with finite precision taken with positive probability
P(1.9999999 < X ≤ 2.0000001) = 0.00000002
I As precision increases, probability decreases
P(X = 2.00000 · · · ) = 0

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Example: Random variable X with CDF F (x )


0 x <0


F (x ) = 0.5 + 0.1x 0≤x ≤5


1 x >5

P(X = 0) = 0.5
P(1.99 < X ≤ 2.01) = F (2.01) − F (1.99) = 0.002
I Value with finite precision taken with positive probability
P(1.9999999 < X ≤ 2.0000001) = 0.00000002
I As precision increases, probability decreases
P(X = 2.00000 · · · ) = 0
I Values with infinte precision cannot be taken, when F (x ) is continuous
at that point
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Continuous random variable
Definition (Continuous random variable)
A random variable X with CDF FX (x ) is said to be a continuous random
variable if FX (x ) is continuous at every x .

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Continuous random variable
Definition (Continuous random variable)
A random variable X with CDF FX (x ) is said to be a continuous random
variable if FX (x ) is continuous at every x .

CDF has no jumps or steps

So, P(X = x ) = 0 for all x
Probability of X falling in an interval will be nonzero

P(a < X ≤ b) = F (b) − F (a)

Since P(X = a) = 0 and P(X = b) = 0, we have

P(a ≤ X ≤ b) = P(a < X ≤ b) = P(a ≤ X < b) = P(a < X < b)

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Examples

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Some scenarios for continuous models

Throw a dart onto a circular board - distance of the point of impact

from the center of the board.
Weight of a metoerite hitting earth
Weight of a human being, height of a human being
Speed of a delivery in cricket
Price of a stock
Many discrete random variables are well-approximated by continuous
random variables that are much simpler to describe

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Problem
Consider a random variable X with CDF



0 x < −5

0.2 −5 ≤ x < 0

FX (x ) =


0.2 + 0.2x 0≤x <4

1 x ≥ 4.



Find P(X < −3), P(−3 < X < −1), P(−1 < X < 1), P(X ≤ −3),
P(0 ≤ X < 3). Is there an x0 for which P(X = x0 ) > 0? Is X a continuous
random variable?

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Working

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Problem
Consider a random variable X with CDF



 0 x < −5

0.04x + 0.2 −5 ≤ x < 0

FX (x ) =


 0.2 + 0.2x 0≤x <4

1 x ≥ 4.



Find P(X < −3), P(−3 < X < −1), P(−1 < X < 1), P(X ≤ −3),
P(0 ≤ X < 3). Is there an x0 for which P(X = x0 ) > 0? Is X a continuous
random variable?

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Working

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 Subsection 4

Probability density function and common continuous distributions

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Refresher on integration
Indefinite integral of a function f (x )
dF (x )
I A function F (x ) such that = f (x )
dx
R
I Denoted as F (x ) = f (x )dx

Definite integral of a function f (x )

I Suppose F (x ) is the indefinite integral of f (x )
I Definite integral of f (x ) from a to b is defined as
Z b
f (x )dx = F (b) − F (a)
a

I Definite integral equals the area under the curve f (x ) from a to b

Tables of integrals: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lists_of_integrals

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Probability density function (PDF)
Definition (PDF)
A continuous random variable X with CDF FX (x ) is said to have a PDF
fX (x ) if, for all x0 , Z x0
FX (x0 ) = fX (x )dx .
−∞

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Probability density function (PDF)
Definition (PDF)
A continuous random variable X with CDF FX (x ) is said to have a PDF
fX (x ) if, for all x0 , Z x0
FX (x0 ) = fX (x )dx .
−∞

CDF is the integral of the PDF

I Derivative of the CDF (wherever it exists) is usually taken as the PDF

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Probability density function (PDF)
Definition (PDF)
A continuous random variable X with CDF FX (x ) is said to have a PDF
fX (x ) if, for all x0 , Z x0
FX (x0 ) = fX (x )dx .
−∞

CDF is the integral of the PDF

I Derivative of the CDF (wherever it exists) is usually taken as the PDF

Why PDF?
I Value of PDF around fX (x0 ) is related to X taking a value around x0
F Higher the PDF, higher the chance that X lies there
F Contrast with value of CDF at x0 , FX (x0 )
F PDF is much easier in probability computations

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Examples: Uniform distribution

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Examples: Exponential and normal distribution

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Properties of PDF
Definition (Density function)
A function f : R → R is said to be a density function if
1 f (x ) ≥ 0
R∞
−∞ f (x )dx = 1
2

3 f (x ) is piecewise continuous

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Properties of PDF
Definition (Density function)
A function f : R → R is said to be a density function if
1 f (x ) ≥ 0
R∞
−∞ f (x )dx = 1
2

3 f (x ) is piecewise continuous

Given a density function f , there is a continuous random variable X

with PDF as f
Support of the random variable X with PDF fX is
supp(X ) = {x : fX (x ) > 0}
I supp(X ) contains intervals in which X can fall with positive probability
I Remember: P(X = x ) = 0 for a continuous random variable

For a random variable X with PDF fX , an event A isR

a subset of the
real line and its probability is computed as P(A) = A f (x )dx
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Problem
Consider the function
(
3x 2 0<x <1
f (x ) =
0 otherwise.

Show that f is a density function. Consider a random variable X with

density f . Find P(X = 1/5), P(X = 2/5), P(X ∈ [1/5 − , 1/5 + ]),
P(X ∈ [2/5 − , 2/5 + ]).

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Problem
Consider a random variable X with density
(
2x 0<x <1
fX (x ) =
0 otherwise.

Find P(X ∈ [0.1, 0.3]), P(X ∈ (0.1, 0.03]), P(X ∈ [0.1, 0.03)),
P(X ∈ (0.1, 0.03)).

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Problem
Consider the function



 k 0 ≤ x < 1/4

2k 1/4 ≤ x < 3/4

f (x ) =


 3k 3/4 ≤ x < 1

0 otherwise.



Find k such that f (x ) is a valid density function.

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Common distributions: Uniform

X ∼ Uniform[a, b]
PDF
(
1
b−a a<x <b
fX (x ) =
0 otherwise

CDF

0

 x ≤a
FX (x ) = x −a
a<x <b
 b−a
x ≥b

1

Andrew Thangaraj (IIT Madras) Continuous random variables 37 / 64

Probability computations with uniform distribution
Suppose X ∼ Uniform[−10, 10]. Find P(−3 ≤ X ≤ 2), P(5 < |X | < 7),
P(1 −  < X < 1 + ), P(9 −  < X < 9 + ), P(X > 7|X > 3).

Andrew Thangaraj (IIT Madras) Continuous random variables 38 / 64

Common distributions: Exponential

X ∼ Exp(λ)
PDF
(
λ exp(−λx ) x >0
fX (x ) =
0 otherwise

CDF
(
0 x ≤0
FX (x ) =
1 − exp(−λx ) x >0

Andrew Thangaraj (IIT Madras) Continuous random variables 39 / 64

Probability computations with exponential distribution
Suppose X ∼ Exp(2). Find P(5 < X < 7), P(1 −  < X < 1 + ),
P(9 −  < X < 9 + ), P(X > 4), P(X > 7|X > 3).

Andrew Thangaraj (IIT Madras) Continuous random variables 40 / 64

Common distributions: Normal

X ∼ Normal(µ, σ 2 )
PDF
!
1 (x − µ)2
fX (x ) = √ exp −
σ 2π 2σ 2

CDF
Z x
FX (x ) = fX (u)du
−∞

Standard normal: Normal(0, 1)

Andrew Thangaraj (IIT Madras) Continuous random variables 41 / 64

Probability computations with normal distribution
CDF of X ∼ Normal(µ, σ 2 ) does not have a closed form expression
Standardization: If X ∼ Normal(µ, σ 2 ), then
(X − µ)/σ ∼ Normal(0, 1)
I Z ∼ Normal(0, 1), PDF: fZ (z) = √1 exp(−z 2 /2)
2π
Z z
1
CDF: FZ (z) = √ exp(−u 2 /2)du
−∞ 2π

I Normal table: Tabulation of above function FZ (z)

F Available on most computing systems

How to compute probabilities for a normal distribution?

I Convert probability computation to that of a standard normal
I Use normal tables or computing systems

Andrew Thangaraj (IIT Madras) Continuous random variables 42 / 64

Problem
Suppose X ∼ Normal(2, 5). Find P(X < 5), P(X < 10), P(X < −5),
P(X < −10), P(X > 5), P(X > 10).

Andrew Thangaraj (IIT Madras) Continuous random variables 43 / 64

Problem
Suppose X ∼ Normal(3, 1). Find P(5 < X < 7), P(−5 < X < 5),
P(1 −  < X < 1 + ), P(9 −  < X < 9 + ), P(X > 4), P(X > 7|X > 3).

Andrew Thangaraj (IIT Madras) Continuous random variables 44 / 64