Develop a worksheet simulation for the following problem.

The management of Madeira Manufacturing C

product is 30,000 dollars. The variable cost for the product is uniformly distributed between 16 and 24 do
normal probability distribution with a mean of 1200 units and a standard deviation of 300 units. Develop
trials to answer the following questions:
REQUIREMENTS:
a. What is the mean profit for the simulation?
b. What is the probability the project will result in a loss?
c. What is the probability the project will result in a profit?
d. What is you recommendation concerning the introduction of the product?

Parameters
Selling Price per unit $50
Fixed Cost $30,000

Probabilistic Units
Variable Cost (Uniform Distribution) Demand (Normal Distribution)
Smallest Value $16 Mean 1,200
Largest Value $24 Std Deviation 300
Parts Cost=SV+RAND()*(LV-SV) Demand=NORMINV(RAND(),mean,std dev)

500 Trials Simulation

First Year
Trial Parts Cost/Unit Net Profit/Loss $
Demand
1 $16.85 1,253 $11,539
2 $20.54 1,484 $13,714
3 $22.80 1,539 $11,873
4 $21.91 1,421 $9,920
5 $23.30 1,495 $9,929
6 $16.50 1,545 $21,740
7 $20.40 860 ($4,553)
8 $19.32 925 ($1,621)
9 $16.94 1,517 $20,143
10 $22.09 1,650 $16,046
11 $22.74 924 ($4,806)
12 $19.06 1,458 $15,123
13 $18.99 1,366 $12,369
14 $21.55 1,700 $18,351
15 $22.12 1,128 $1,437
16 $17.66 1,159 $7,492
17 $21.49 1,016 ($1,043)
18 $22.16 1,749 $18,702
19 $23.96 636 ($13,428)
20 $16.95 1,403 $16,384
21 $23.07 933 ($4,868)
22 $16.80 1,276 $12,351
23 $16.63 1,714 $27,190
24 $20.23 1,497 $14,581
25 $16.73 950 $1,592
26 $19.91 2,023 $30,884
27 $19.56 1,153 $5,110
28 $23.05 1,406 $7,887
29 $19.38 1,262 $8,632
30 $20.00 1,095 $2,857
31 $17.29 1,470 $18,076
32 $18.95 941 ($777)
33 $19.43 1,479 $15,205
34 $23.74 1,007 ($3,555)
35 $18.34 530 ($13,220)
36 $20.24 811 ($5,869)
37 $19.53 1,213 $6,974
38 $17.57 1,003 $2,531
39 $17.23 1,400 $15,895
40 $23.29 830 ($7,826)
41 $17.51 1,166 $7,899
42 $18.04 1,451 $16,390
43 $23.11 1,241 $3,371
44 $23.19 997 ($3,264)
45 $16.97 1,240 $10,958
46 $17.13 1,017 $3,420
47 $18.73 1,680 $22,544
48 $22.50 636 ($12,509)
49 $20.53 1,276 $7,597
50 $22.65 1,346 $6,816
51 $21.57 1,774 $20,444
52 $17.90 1,202 $8,586
53 $21.33 1,337 $8,341
54 $20.18 1,324 $9,488
55 $20.30 1,120 $3,279
56 $16.15 1,403 $17,481
57 $16.30 1,152 $8,844
58 $21.83 1,132 $1,899
59 $22.42 1,339 $6,919
60 $22.69 1,326 $6,224
61 $16.46 557 ($11,326)
62 $20.79 747 ($8,186)
63 $23.70 1,155 $380
64 $22.00 575 ($13,908)
65 $18.80 749 ($6,618)
66 $17.09 1,317 $13,334
67 $16.66 1,181 $9,365
68 $18.05 1,086 $4,690
69 $16.99 1,141 $7,649
70 $20.43 1,495 $14,202
71 $19.00 1,176 $6,472
72 $16.52 1,041 $4,856
73 $22.09 1,192 $3,268
74 $19.66 1,197 $6,314
75 $20.43 848 ($4,931)
76 $20.14 1,109 $3,120
77 $16.31 748 ($4,784)
78 $17.27 1,497 $18,989
79 $21.88 1,254 $5,273
80 $21.67 1,052 ($205)
81 $21.55 1,498 $12,614
82 $20.40 1,235 $6,547
83 $23.00 1,546 $11,733
84 $20.58 1,407 $11,396
85 $17.68 1,280 $11,372
86 $23.80 1,056 ($2,331)
87 $19.65 1,392 $12,244
88 $19.80 692 ($9,114)
89 $21.99 1,663 $16,586
90 $22.62 1,040 ($1,532)
91 $17.07 1,159 $8,165
92 $22.39 1,792 $19,473
93 $18.97 1,002 $1,102
94 $20.80 1,839 $23,693
95 $16.59 892 ($201)
96 $19.84 1,091 $2,914
97 $23.86 1,009 ($3,632)
98 $16.65 1,607 $23,572
99 $20.58 1,295 $8,111
100 $18.69 1,318 $11,266
101 $22.74 966 ($3,658)
102 $19.90 1,568 $17,187
103 $23.80 851 ($7,694)
104 $18.26 1,157 $6,730
105 $23.28 1,758 $16,972
106 $20.86 1,079 $1,458
107 $19.34 1,147 $5,167
108 $17.52 984 $1,974
109 $16.88 1,840 $30,939
110 $22.17 1,444 $10,186
111 $18.85 1,126 $5,093
112 $20.54 918 ($2,945)
113 $17.86 1,043 $3,525
114 $20.15 1,358 $10,538
115 $17.10 1,460 $18,035
116 $22.77 1,676 $15,641
117 $21.56 1,563 $14,444
118 $16.26 1,635 $25,188
119 $20.13 918 ($2,574)
120 $19.06 1,572 $18,645
121 $18.86 933 ($951)
122 $21.25 1,004 ($1,151)
123 $18.57 1,670 $22,491
124 $23.17 906 ($5,683)
125 $22.49 993 ($2,687)
126 $17.76 1,188 $8,290
127 $23.49 1,228 $2,544
128 $23.16 1,517 $10,720
129 $19.17 922 ($1,564)
130 $18.50 1,548 $18,765
131 $22.16 1,245 $4,671
132 $21.50 1,490 $12,462
133 $16.11 1,306 $14,279
134 $18.19 788 ($4,940)
135 $18.78 831 ($4,043)
136 $22.36 431 ($18,093)
137 $23.29 852 ($7,235)
138 $23.52 996 ($3,628)
139 $17.79 1,364 $13,930
140 $17.53 1,419 $16,079
141 $22.01 1,067 ($128)
142 $16.46 881 ($462)
143 $20.25 1,090 $2,421
144 $21.98 827 ($6,832)
145 $21.87 1,212 $4,098
146 $20.35 1,442 $12,745
147 $18.92 1,015 $1,529
148 $19.80 1,497 $15,202
149 $20.36 1,699 $20,349
150 $23.23 1,242 $3,257
151 $23.36 1,237 $2,970
152 $16.45 1,489 $19,968
153 $23.34 1,121 ($128)
154 $17.92 717 ($7,001)
155 $18.44 929 ($685)
156 $21.93 1,297 $6,402
157 $19.03 1,415 $13,835
158 $17.99 956 $611
159 $18.92 533 ($13,429)
160 $17.56 935 $322
161 $17.07 1,000 $2,926
162 $21.28 1,238 $5,537
163 $17.81 1,020 $2,847
164 $17.83 1,341 $13,140
165 $23.25 897 ($6,013)
166 $16.52 919 $766
167 $18.62 1,180 $7,043
168 $17.22 941 $850
169 $20.85 1,362 $9,699
170 $20.89 1,584 $16,114
171 $20.29 803 ($6,152)
172 $21.16 978 ($1,786)
173 $22.31 1,091 $218
174 $20.27 1,323 $9,323
175 $20.28 1,045 $1,042
176 $21.63 1,052 ($166)
177 $20.73 1,160 $3,972
178 $16.58 1,483 $19,565
179 $20.59 1,415 $11,629
180 $23.00 1,129 $496
181 $21.54 1,068 $383
182 $23.50 1,429 $7,873
183 $20.62 1,325 $8,941
184 $19.88 823 ($5,205)
185 $18.00 1,375 $13,991
186 $18.39 1,586 $20,152
187 $18.90 1,276 $9,662
188 $20.34 966 ($1,343)
189 $21.47 1,425 $10,663
190 $21.67 1,286 $6,445
191 $19.37 1,086 $3,282
192 $16.48 1,253 $12,019
193 $23.93 1,302 $3,944
194 $18.92 817 ($4,611)
195 $19.41 1,350 $11,301
196 $19.63 1,215 $6,896
197 $19.98 1,370 $11,120
198 $18.54 1,355 $12,617
199 $17.20 747 ($5,509)
200 $19.34 762 ($6,636)
201 $18.80 1,122 $5,008
202 $20.91 921 ($3,211)
203 $23.75 1,324 $4,760
204 $22.63 1,453 $9,749
205 $18.79 1,053 $2,874
206 $20.17 1,398 $11,690
207 $18.69 1,211 $7,918
208 $16.99 981 $2,390
209 $16.97 1,125 $7,150
210 $16.99 1,357 $14,794
211 $21.80 924 ($3,936)
212 $17.95 1,799 $27,642
213 $18.69 594 ($11,401)
214 $20.72 1,487 $13,530
215 $20.91 1,473 $12,847
216 $21.50 1,384 $9,445
217 $20.74 781 ($7,151)
218 $21.31 1,154 $3,115
219 $18.71 1,183 $7,005
220 $22.69 754 ($9,399)
221 $20.03 698 ($9,083)
222 $16.99 720 ($6,228)
223 $22.18 1,033 ($1,259)
224 $20.26 1,629 $18,455
225 $21.64 1,545 $13,804
226 $21.69 1,420 $10,182
227 $19.82 996 $62
228 $16.02 1,595 $24,201
229 $20.86 1,113 $2,422
230 $23.30 556 ($15,152)
231 $20.17 1,266 $7,772
232 $23.60 1,354 $5,740
233 $16.95 1,260 $11,643
234 $17.96 1,007 $2,252
235 $18.77 643 ($9,918)
236 $19.45 854 ($3,892)
237 $19.57 1,433 $13,611
238 $23.40 377 ($19,965)
239 $22.75 1,124 $613
240 $18.25 1,295 $11,124
241 $23.96 1,340 $4,884
242 $18.84 830 ($4,136)
243 $18.03 652 ($9,150)
244 $22.03 1,332 $7,249
245 $17.46 1,101 $5,833
246 $17.51 1,277 $11,493
247 $21.82 1,112 $1,349
248 $16.56 1,681 $26,217
249 $19.06 1,155 $5,730
250 $19.51 837 ($4,475)
251 $20.75 1,527 $14,657
252 $23.23 1,402 $7,528
253 $20.33 1,410 $11,847
254 $23.77 1,243 $2,595
255 $22.59 1,157 $1,712
256 $23.06 1,478 $9,819
257 $22.48 870 ($6,049)
258 $21.03 1,408 $10,787
259 $17.17 908 ($189)
260 $16.23 1,400 $17,277
261 $16.69 1,609 $23,583
262 $16.75 772 ($4,334)
263 $17.55 929 $135
264 $23.76 278 ($22,701)
265 $20.96 1,011 ($641)
266 $21.23 1,543 $14,387
267 $17.17 456 ($15,046)
268 $17.12 873 ($1,309)
269 $20.04 1,717 $21,436
270 $22.45 1,476 $10,674
271 $19.03 1,041 $2,241
272 $23.27 1,258 $3,619
273 $17.64 570 ($11,571)
274 $18.86 1,060 $2,996
275 $21.95 1,355 $8,003
276 $16.75 1,262 $11,970
277 $20.30 984 ($781)
278 $17.41 631 ($9,424)
279 $21.61 1,584 $14,974
280 $23.65 937 ($5,307)
281 $20.38 996 ($494)
282 $21.28 1,233 $5,414
283 $18.30 1,348 $12,725
284 $18.88 1,493 $16,453
285 $21.46 1,376 $9,263
286 $19.35 998 $588
287 $20.18 932 ($2,208)
288 $20.19 1,372 $10,899
289 $17.89 1,344 $13,152
290 $16.72 854 ($1,587)
291 $19.30 1,469 $15,117
292 $18.46 1,254 $9,545
293 $19.72 907 ($2,542)
294 $23.86 1,692 $14,232
295 $22.77 1,254 $4,147
296 $21.06 1,666 $18,220
297 $17.97 1,718 $25,026
298 $19.49 1,720 $22,462
299 $21.02 961 ($2,152)
300 $20.25 898 ($3,276)
301 $22.46 988 ($2,777)
302 $16.42 1,288 $13,245
303 $19.33 1,231 $7,743
304 $16.17 1,368 $16,278
305 $17.71 1,352 $13,640
306 $19.82 1,706 $21,489
307 $23.14 1,897 $20,943
308 $17.64 1,375 $14,484
309 $16.77 959 $1,872
310 $20.60 1,125 $3,065
311 $20.99 1,245 $6,106
312 $21.32 874 ($4,931)
313 $17.56 775 ($4,854)
314 $22.16 1,704 $17,444
315 $22.91 1,076 ($853)
316 $18.16 999 $1,803
317 $22.95 1,437 $8,866
318 $17.32 1,109 $6,229
319 $20.33 1,349 $10,033
320 $22.33 1,553 $12,970
321 $23.92 1,577 $11,114
322 $16.75 1,094 $6,374
323 $20.95 1,352 $9,274
324 $19.20 1,058 $2,597
325 $23.11 948 ($4,503)
326 $21.98 1,347 $7,729
327 $23.07 1,345 $6,214
328 $21.08 686 ($10,162)
329 $21.38 1,550 $14,363
330 $18.42 1,521 $18,039
331 $20.51 1,602 $17,243
332 $23.37 1,287 $4,265
333 $22.11 1,137 $1,704
334 $22.23 828 ($7,021)
335 $21.30 1,076 $868
336 $16.21 1,401 $17,332
337 $20.59 1,266 $7,222
338 $22.94 876 ($6,288)
339 $21.25 1,203 $4,587
340 $18.15 940 ($64)
341 $16.01 948 $2,217
342 $20.71 890 ($3,935)
343 $21.90 1,273 $5,769
344 $21.62 1,191 $3,795
345 $18.00 1,019 $2,619
346 $19.18 1,672 $21,529
347 $19.05 1,238 $8,319
348 $17.47 955 $1,063
349 $23.88 1,086 ($1,618)
350 $16.18 1,029 $4,781
351 $23.50 830 ($8,011)
352 $18.01 1,492 $17,730
353 $18.04 1,392 $14,493
354 $17.78 1,134 $6,552
355 $19.12 1,024 $1,634
356 $21.82 666 ($11,234)
357 $16.62 970 $2,390
358 $17.03 653 ($8,474)
359 $23.67 1,816 $17,820
360 $18.39 1,195 $7,783
361 $18.22 1,250 $9,725
362 $19.35 1,239 $7,977
363 $20.32 1,192 $5,388
364 $18.34 852 ($3,033)
365 $19.68 1,043 $1,624
366 $19.34 1,245 $8,152
367 $22.16 842 ($6,575)
368 $16.28 1,440 $18,544
369 $18.17 852 ($2,875)
370 $17.55 1,439 $16,700
371 $20.24 1,219 $6,290
372 $16.32 1,320 $14,460
373 $17.76 1,494 $18,151
374 $22.37 1,403 $8,764
375 $20.56 929 ($2,648)
376 $23.81 1,419 $7,167
377 $19.21 1,200 $6,950
378 $23.16 1,184 $1,783
379 $19.77 780 ($6,428)
380 $23.37 1,442 $8,418
381 $23.49 1,529 $10,532
382 $17.38 803 ($3,808)
383 $17.70 1,635 $22,804
384 $22.12 861 ($6,000)
385 $22.52 913 ($4,902)
386 $22.60 1,317 $6,092
387 $20.28 926 ($2,470)
388 $16.13 1,024 $4,674
389 $19.41 633 ($10,629)
390 $23.69 1,474 $8,791
391 $19.81 1,863 $26,254
392 $23.09 1,068 ($1,274)
393 $16.71 1,387 $16,170
394 $20.21 1,409 $11,980
395 $20.33 1,460 $13,315
396 $19.96 1,515 $15,518
397 $16.07 1,365 $16,314
398 $20.16 1,032 $793
399 $19.85 1,065 $2,115
400 $19.82 1,259 $8,003
401 $23.83 971 ($4,583)
402 $18.70 932 ($842)
403 $17.62 1,283 $11,560
404 $20.49 1,591 $16,967
405 $20.39 1,404 $11,574
406 $16.43 1,216 $10,813
407 $18.97 1,414 $13,890
408 $17.20 1,325 $13,466
409 $23.26 1,014 ($2,891)
410 $20.41 729 ($8,429)
411 $21.88 1,527 $12,948
412 $22.89 1,229 $3,320
413 $22.77 1,200 $2,680
414 $23.67 1,421 $7,407
415 $17.19 1,918 $32,920
416 $16.35 1,354 $15,572
417 $16.63 1,909 $33,686
418 $23.22 1,089 ($839)
419 $18.25 1,586 $20,353
420 $18.05 1,331 $12,535
421 $22.18 1,188 $3,061
422 $21.09 1,114 $2,215
423 $20.13 1,353 $10,434
424 $20.00 1,683 $20,490
425 $22.30 1,390 $8,509
426 $16.35 1,516 $21,024
427 $17.47 1,288 $11,910
428 $23.64 971 ($4,401)
429 $17.47 1,327 $13,174
430 $20.36 918 ($2,795)
431 $22.75 1,168 $1,823
432 $23.88 724 ($11,094)
433 $20.48 1,342 $9,618
434 $18.83 1,364 $12,525
435 $18.99 890 ($2,411)
436 $21.26 1,806 $21,899
437 $19.01 1,200 $7,188
438 $21.49 1,289 $6,755
439 $19.91 1,170 $5,203
440 $20.16 1,128 $3,651
441 $19.90 1,355 $10,794
442 $23.16 1,252 $3,602
443 $19.41 1,818 $25,604
444 $23.64 937 ($5,305)
445 $16.84 1,262 $11,861
446 $18.35 1,035 $2,752
447 $17.34 1,404 $15,856
448 $20.03 1,411 $12,281
449 $21.69 1,299 $6,780
450 $23.28 1,321 $5,297
451 $19.95 1,281 $8,488
452 $22.65 1,357 $7,116
453 $20.80 1,340 $9,119
454 $19.67 1,120 $3,965
455 $23.66 1,324 $4,884
456 $22.58 1,507 $11,329
457 $22.75 955 ($3,974)
458 $22.83 1,284 $4,895
459 $20.88 1,103 $2,130
460 $18.54 1,690 $23,176
461 $19.73 691 ($9,079)
462 $20.14 1,040 $1,050
463 $21.57 979 ($2,168)
464 $19.90 932 ($1,960)
465 $18.82 970 $243
466 $22.42 901 ($5,153)
467 $22.21 1,449 $10,275
468 $21.70 1,917 $24,246
 469 $22.51 1,374 $7,781
470 $23.81 1,014 ($3,434)
471 $22.76 762 ($9,243)
472 $23.36 1,794 $17,790
473 $23.23 1,122 $27
474 $18.57 1,151 $6,182
475 $22.24 1,358 $7,709
476 $16.67 1,469 $18,972
477 $23.79 1,385 $6,287
478 $21.99 1,224 $4,294
479 $21.88 1,421 $9,972
480 $20.92 1,455 $12,318
481 $20.61 685 ($9,861)
482 $21.34 1,373 $9,347
483 $17.94 1,462 $16,869
484 $22.05 1,698 $17,469
485 $18.75 1,300 $10,636
486 $17.44 865 ($1,852)
487 $22.66 759 ($9,256)
488 $16.23 932 $1,469
489 $18.35 1,421 $14,982
490 $21.50 1,498 $12,689
491 $20.72 935 ($2,630)
492 $17.86 1,464 $17,058
493 $18.18 1,183 $7,637
494 $23.56 236 ($23,762)
495 $16.58 1,098 $6,685
496 $18.20 1,159 $6,866
497 $23.78 1,429 $7,473
498 $18.81 1,522 $17,470
499 $18.58 1,217 $8,242
500 $21.09 1,288 $7,250
Average 20.08 1,204.59 6,038.01

Summary Statistics
Mean Profit $6,038.01
Standard Deviation $ 9,376.42
Minimum Profit ($23,761.90)
Maximum Profit $33,685.52
Number of losses 134
Probability of Loss 0.268
Probability of Profit 0.732

The probability that the project will lead to a loss is 26.8%, meaning to say, it is not recommende
risky for the company to introduce a new product therefore it is better to reject the project.
deira Manufacturing Company is considering the introduction of a new product. The fixed cost to begin the production
etween 16 and 24 dollars per unit. The product will sell for 50 dollars per unit. Demand for the product is best describ
f 300 units. Develop a spreadsheet simulation similar to the example given during our synchronous session. Use 500
s not recommended to launch a new product. It is
t the project.
st to begin the production of the
he product is best described by a
hronous session. Use 500 simulation