Republic of the Philippines

DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
MMSS-07 Rev.2 / 03-01-22
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 16
Severe Tropical Storm PAENG (NALGAE)
Issued at 8:00 AM, 29 October 2022
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM “PAENG” HAS CROSSED THE BONDOC PENINSULA IN SOUTHERN QUEZON

Location of Center (7:00 AM)

The center of Severe Tropical Storm “PAENG” was

estimated based on all available data including those from
Daet and Baler Doppler Weather Radars over the coastal
waters of Catanauan, Quezon (13.6°N, 122.3°E)

Intensity
Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center,
gustiness of up to 160 km/h, and central pressure of
985 hPa
Present Movement

West northwestward at 30 km/h

Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds
Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to
560 km from the center
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
Center Position Intensity Movement
dir. and
Date and Time Lat. Lon. MSW
Location Cat. speed
(°N) (°E) (km/h) (km/h)
12-Hour Forecast
In the vicinity of Binangonan, Rizal
5:00 PM 14.3 121.2 95 STS WNW 15
(Laguna de Bay)
29 October 2022
24-Hour Forecast
5:00 AM 15.4 119.4 Over the coastal waters of Palauig, Zambales 85 TS WNW 20
30 October 2022
36-Hour Forecast
5:00 PM 16.0 117.8 275 km West of Dagupan City, Pangasinan 95 STS WNW 15
30 October 2022
48-Hour Forecast
5:00 AM 16.7 117.3 355 km West of Baguio City 95 STS NW 10
31 October 2022
60-Hour Forecast
365 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur
5:00 PM 17.9 117.0 100 STS NNW 10
(Outside the PAR)
31 October 2022
72-Hour Forecast
390 km West of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte
5:00 AM 18.8 116.9 100 STS N 10
(Outside the PAR)
01 November 2022
96-Hour Forecast
585 km West of Basco, Batanes NNW
5:00 AM 20.0 116.4 100 STS
(Outside the PAR) Slowly
02 November 2022
120-Hour Forecast
735 km West of Itbayat, Batanes
5:00 AM 20.7 114.8 95 STS WNW 10
(Outside the PAR)
03 November 2022

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 Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
MMSS-07 Rev.2 / 03-01-22
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 16
Severe Tropical Storm PAENG (NALGAE)
Issued at 8:00 AM, 29 October 2022
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

TCWS No. Luzon Visayas Mindanao

Camarines Norte, the western portion of

Camarines Sur (Del Gallego, Ragay, Lupi, Sipocot,
3 Cabusao, Pasacao, Libmanan, Pamplona),
Marinduque, Quezon including Pollilo Islands,
- -

Wind threat: Laguna, Batangas, Cavite, Metro Manila, and Rizal

Storm-force
winds
Warning lead time: 18 hours
Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property

Catanduanes, Albay, the western portion of

Sorsogon (Pilar, Castilla, Donsol), the western
portion of Masbate (Aroroy, Baleno, Mandaon)

2 including Burias Island, the southern portion of

Aurora (San Luis, Baler, Dingalan, Maria Aurora),
- -
Wind threat: Bulacan, Pampanga, Bataan, Tarlac, Zambales,
Gale-force Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan, the rest of Camarines
winds Sur, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, and Occidental
Mindoro including Lubang Islands

Warning lead time: 24 hours

Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
TCWS No. Luzon Visayas Mindanao

Northern Samar, Samar,

Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Kalinga, Ifugao, Eastern Samar, Biliran,
Mountain Province, Benguet, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Leyte, Southern Leyte,
the rest of Aurora, the rest of Sorsogon, the rest of Cebu including Bantayan

1 Masbate including Ticao Island, and the northern

portion of Palawan (El Nido, Taytay, Dumaran,
and Camotes Islands,
Bohol, Negros Occidental,
-

Wind threat: Araceli, Roxas, San Vicente) including Calamian and Negros Oriental, Guimaras,
Strong winds Cuyo Islands Aklan, Antique, Capiz, and
Iloilo

Warning lead time: 36 hours

Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property

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 Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
MMSS-07 Rev.2 / 03-01-22
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 16
Severe Tropical Storm PAENG (NALGAE)
Issued at 8:00 AM, 29 October 2022
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Heavy Rainfall
• Through this morning: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains over Bicol Region, Aklan, Antique, Capiz, Iloilo,
Guimaras, Quezon including Pollilo Islands, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro Provinces, and the northern portion of
Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains likely over Metro
Manila, Aurora, Bulacan, Negros Occidental, Northern Samar, the eastern portion of mainland Cagayan Valley, and
the rest of CALABARZON and Palawan. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over Cordillera
Administrative Region, Zamboanga Peninsula, and the rest of Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, and Visayas.
• This morning through evening: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains likely over Metro Manila,
CALABARZON, Marinduque, Romblon, Mindoro Provinces, and the northern portion of Palawan including Calamian
and Cuyo Islands. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains likely over mainland Cagayan Valley, Cordillera
Administrative Region, Western Visayas, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Bulacan, Bataan, and Camarines
Provinces. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over Ilocos Region and the rest of Visayas, Central
Luzon, and Bicol Region.
• Tonight through tomorrow morning: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains likely over Metro Manila,
Zambales, Bataan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Laguna, Cavite, and Batangas. Moderate to heavy with at
times intense rains likely over mainland Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, Western Visayas,
Quezon including Pollilo Islands, Marinduque, Mindoro Provinces, and the rest of Central Luzon. Light to moderate
with at times heavy rains possible over Ilocos Region, Camarines Provinces, Romblon, and the northern portion of
Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands.
• Under these conditions, widespread flooding and rain-induced landslides are expected, especially in areas that
are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant
antecedent rainfall.

Severe Winds
• Winds of at most storm-force strength may occur within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 3 is hoisted, while
winds reaching reach gale-force strength are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2 is in effect.
Areas under Wind Signal No.1 may experience strong winds (strong breeze to near gale strength) throughout the
passage of the tropical cyclone.
• The surge of the Northeast Monsoon enhanced by PAENG will also bring strong winds with gusts reaching gale-
force strength over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan,
and the northern portion of Apayao.

Coastal Inundation
There is minimal to moderate risk of storm surge of up to 2.0 m in height which may cause inundation or flooding in
the low-lying and exposed coastal areas of western Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, southern Aurora, Quezon
including Polillo Islands, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Cavite, Batangas, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and
Albay. For more information refer to Storm Surge Warning #5 issued at 8:00 AM today.

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 Republic of the Philippines
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
Weather Division
MMSS-07 Rev.2 / 03-01-22
TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 16
Severe Tropical Storm PAENG (NALGAE)
Issued at 8:00 AM, 29 October 2022
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 AM today

HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

Under the influence of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon and Severe Tropical Storm PAENG, a marine gale warning
remains in effect over the seaboards of Luzon and Visayas and the eastern seaboard of Mindanao. For more information,
refer to Gale Warning #12 issued at 5:00 AM today.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

• Severe Tropical Storm PAENG is forecast to track westward in the short term before moving west northwestward
through Sunday across Luzon. On the forecast track, the center of PAENG will pass close or make landfall in the
vicinity of Marinduque this morning before traversing the CALABARZON-Metro Manila-Bataan Peninsula area for
the remainder of the day through tomorrow early morning. However, southward shift in the forecast track of PAENG
is possible in the succeeding bulletins.
• Frictional effects associated with interaction with the Luzon landmass may result in weakening into a tropical storm
within 24 hours, possibly earlier. However, PAENG may re-intensify into a severe tropical storm once it reaches the
West Philippine Sea.

Recent landfalls: Buenavista, Quezon (6:00 AM today)

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to
take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly
susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall
warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please
monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 AM today.

DOST-PAGASA

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