(BASIC STATISTICS AND MATHEMATICS)

(ELEMENTARY
PROBABILITY
THEORY)
F.Y. B.COM

SEM - I

COMPILED BY: NEHA K. GADHVI

F.Y. B.COM./ SEM I/PRE MID SEM/2015-16

 SESSION PLAN

SESSION/ LECT. TOPIC OF DISCUSSION SUM NO./ CASE NAME/

NO. ACTIVITY NAME/
SPECIAL REMARKS, IF
APPLICABLE
1 COURSE & TOPIC DISCUSSION
INTRODUCTION
2 BASIC TERMS DISCUSSION
3 BASIC PROBLEMS SUM NO. 1,2,3
4 BASIC PROBLEMS SUM NO. 16,17, 18,19

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 INTRODUCTION:

In life we come across many events. The event can be certain, uncertain or impossible. In
the case of certainty and impossible event we very well know in advance that what will be
the result of that event. But, for uncertain event the result cannot be predicted well in
advance.

In practical life, the situations are such that the results are mostly uncertain. The theory of
probability is an attempt to measure the degree of uncertainty in the results of such
experiments.

The theory of probability was originated from gambling. Now-a-days, probability is used
practically in all branches of study. Statistics cannot be studied without understanding the
theory of probability. Mathematicians and statistician – Jacob Bernoulli (1654-1705),
Abraham De’Moivre (1667-1754), Reverend Thomas Bayes (1702-1761), Joseph
Langrange (1736-1813), and many have unified all these early ideas and compiled the first
general theory of probability. However, systematic and scientific foundation of the
mathematical theory of probability was laid in mid-seventeeth century by two French
mathematicians B. Pascal (1623-1662) and Pierre de Fermat (1601-1665). Whereas, Galileo
(1564-1642), an Italian mathematician, was the first man to attempt quantitative measure of
probability while dealing with some problems related to the theory of dice in gambling.

 TERMS:

1. Random Experiment:
An experiment which can result in more than one outcome and so, whose outcome
cannot be predicted with certainty, is called Random experiment.
Point to be noted: An experiment whose outcome is known in advance, is not a random
experiment. For example, when a ball is thrown upward, it will surely fall downward.
So, it is not a random experiment.
E.g. Drawing a ball from a bag containing different types of balls.

Characteristics of a random experiment:

i) The experiment results in any one of the outcomes.
ii) All possible outcomes of the experiment can be described in advance but cannot be
known in advance.
iii) The experiment can be repeated under same conditions.

2. Trial:
Each performance of the random experiment is called a Trial.
E.g. Selecting a chit 3 times from a bowl. So there are three trials of the experiment.

3. Sample Space:
The sample space of a random experiment is defined as the set of all possible outcomes
of the experiment. Sample space is usually represented by ‘S’ (or U). So since sample
space consists of all the possibilities, sample space will surely occur in any experiment.
E.g. observe the number of goals in a soccer match; here sample space: S = {0, 1, 2, 3,
⋯}.

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 4. Event:
The event is a subset of a sample space.
Points to be noted:
i) ∅ is also a subset of S which is called an impossible event.
ii) Sample space plays the same role in ‘probability’ as does the universal set in
‘Set ‘Theory’.

5. Exhaustive events:
A set of events is said to be exhaustive if atleast one of them must necessarily occur on
each performance of the experiment i.e. in simple words, if all the events collectively,
cover all the possible outcomes of the experiment, then they are called exhaustive
events.
E.g. If U={1,2,3,4} A={1,2}and B={2,3,4}, then A & B are Exhaustive Events.

6. Mutually exclusive events:

A set of events is said to be mutually exclusive if the occurrence of one of them rules
out the occurrence of any of the remaining events i.e. in simple words, no two out of the
set of events can occur simultaneously.
In set theoretic notation, two events A1 and A2 are mutually exclusive if
𝐴1 ∩ 𝐴2 = ∅.
E.g. Turning left or right are Mutually Exclusive (you can't do both at the same time)

(Note: if U={1,2,3,4}: A={1,2}and B={3,4}, then A & B are Mutually exclusive and
Exhaustive Events.)

7. Complementary events:
If A is an event then the complementary event will be, 𝐴̅ (or 𝐴′ ) which will contain all
the elements of the sample space which are not a part of A.
E.g. If U= R (Real Numbers) and A = Odd numbers then 𝐴̅ = Even numbers.

8. Independent events:
Two or more events are said to be independent if occurrence or non-occurrence of any
of them does not affect the probability of occurrence or non-occurrence of other events.
E.g. Rainfall in America and sales of umbrella in India

9. Equally likely events:

A set of events is said to be equally likely if taking into consideration all the relevant
factors, there is no reason to expect one of them in preference to the others i.e. in simple
words, the events are equally likely to occur. Obviously, the chances of occurrence of
equally likely events are equal and so their probabilities are equal.
E.g. Result of a match.

 Mathematical definition of probability:

If an experiment can result in 𝑛 exhaustive, mutually exclusive and equally likely ways, and
if 𝑚 of them are favourable to the happening of an event A, then the probability of happening
of an event A is defined as an ratio of 𝑚 and 𝑛. the probability of happening of an event A
is denoted by 𝑃(𝐴).

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 𝑓𝑎𝑣𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑟 ℎ𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑜𝑓 𝑎𝑛 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐴
i.e., 𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑒𝑥ℎ𝑎𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒,𝑚𝑢𝑡𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑦 𝑒𝑥𝑐𝑙𝑢𝑠𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑎𝑙𝑙𝑦 𝑙𝑖𝑘𝑒𝑙𝑦 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠

𝑚
= 𝑛

The probability of not happening of an event is denoted by 𝑃(𝐴′ )

Also,
0≤𝑚≤𝑛
𝑚
0≤ ≤1
𝑛
0 ≤ 𝑃(𝐴) ≤ 1
Thus, probability of an event is always between 0 and 1
When probability of an event is 0 then the event is impossible.
And if the probability of an event is 1 then the event is certain to happen.
Now if
𝑚
𝑃(𝐴) = 𝑛

𝑛−𝑚
Then 𝑃(𝐴′ ) = 𝑛
𝑛 𝑚
=𝑛− 𝑛
= 1 − 𝑃(𝐴)
Thus, 𝑷(𝑨) + 𝑷(𝑨′ ) = 𝟏

 RESULTS & MEANING:

𝑚
1. 𝑃(𝐴) = Probability of happening of an event A =
𝑛
2. 𝑃(𝐴′ ) = Probability of not happening of an event A , 𝑃(𝐴′ ) = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴).
3. Addition Rule on Probability:
If A and B are two events of the sample space then probability that at least one of the event
will occur is 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
For three events A, B and C, probability that atleast one of the event A, B or C will occur
is 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶) – 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) – 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐶) – 𝑃(𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)
+ 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ∩ 𝐶)
4. If A and B are two mutually independent events then, 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴). 𝑃(𝐵)
5. If A and B are two independent events then (i) 𝐴′ and 𝐵 ′ (ii) 𝐴′ and B (iii) A and 𝐵 ′ , are
also independent and vice-versa.
6. If A and B are two mutually exclusive events then
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(∅) = 0.
7. For any two events A and B of the sample space, the probability that only A occurs is given
by 𝑃(𝐴 − 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 ′ ) = 𝑃(𝐴) − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵) − 𝑃(𝐵)
8. Probability that atleast one of the events A or B will not occur is 𝑃(𝐴′ ∪ 𝐵 ′ ) =
𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)′ = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵).
9. Probability that both the events A and B will not occur is 𝑃(𝐴′ ∩ 𝐵 ′ ) = 𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵)′ = 1 −
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵).
10. If A, B and C are three mutually exclusive and exhaustive events then
𝑃(𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 ∪ 𝐶) = 𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵) + 𝑃(𝐶) = 𝑃(𝑈) = 1
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11. If A and B are two events of sample space then probability that event A occurs when it is
know that event B has already occurred is called conditional probability and defined as
𝑃(𝐴∩𝐵)
𝑃(𝐴/𝐵) = , where P(B)≠ 0.
𝑃(𝐵)
12. Multiplication Rule: If A and B are two events of sample space then probability that both
the events occur together is:
(i) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = P(A). 𝑃(𝐵/𝐴)
(ii) 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵) = P(B). 𝑃(𝐴/𝐵)

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Example based on probability

1. In a lottery there are 10 prices and 25 blanks. An lottery is drawn at random, what is the
probability of getting a price? (Ans. 2/7)

2. Among the digits 1,2,3,4,5, at first, one is chosen and then a second selection is made among
the remaining four digits. Assuming that all twenty possible outcomes have equal
probabilities, find the probability that an odd digit will be selected:
i. the first time,
ii. the second time and
iii. both times.

3. From 25 tickets, marked with first 25 numerals, one is drawn at random. Find the chance
that:
i. It is multiple of 5 or 7, and
ii. It is a multiple of 3 or 7.

4. The blood groups of 200 people are distributed as follows: 50 have type A blood, 65
have B blood type, 70 have O blood type and 15 have type AB blood. If a person from this
group is selected at random, what is the probability that this person has O blood type?
(Ans.7/20)
5. In a class, there are 15 boys and 10 girls. Three students are selected at random. Find
probability that 1 girl and 2 boys are selected.
(Ans. 21/46)
6. A machine is made up of two parts A and B. The probability that part A is defective is 0.05
and the probability that B part is defective is 0.07. find the probability that the entire machine
is not defective. (Ans. 0.8835)

7. Three students are given an example. The probability that 1st, 2nd and 3rd students solve the
example correctly are respectively ½, 1/3, ¾. Find the probability that at least one of them
will solve the example correctly. (Ans. 11/12)

8. A student goes to the library. The probability that she checks out (a) a work of fiction is
0.40, (b) a work of non-fiction is 0.30, , and (c) both fiction and non-fiction is 0.20. What is
the probability that the student checks out a work of fiction, non-fiction, or both?
(Ans. 0.50)
9. The probability that A speaks the truth is 0.6 and the probability that B speaks the truth is
0.7. they both agree about a statement. Find the probability that the statement is true.

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 (Ans. 7/9)
10.There are 5 red and 7 black balls in an urn. Two balls are drawn at random one after the
other. If they are drawn (i) with replacement (ii) without replacement, find the probability
that both the balls are red
(Ans. 25/144, 5/33)
11. Tickets are numbered from 1 to 100. They are well shuffled and a ticket is drawn at random.
What is the probability that the drawn ticket has:
(i) An even number?
(ii) The number 5 or multiple of 5?
(iii) A number which is greater than 75?
(iv) A number which is a square?
(𝐴𝑛𝑠. 1⁄2 , 1⁄5 , 1⁄4 , 1⁄10)
12. Five men in a company of 20 are graduate. If 3 men are picked out of the 20 at random,
what is the probability that they are all graduates? What is the probability of atleast one
graduate? (𝐴𝑛𝑠. 1⁄114 , 137⁄228)

13. Three groups of workers contain: 3 men and 1 women, 2 men and 2 women, 1 man and 3
women resp. One worker is selected at random from each group, what is probability that the
group selected consists of 1 man and 2 women. (𝐴𝑛𝑠. 13⁄32)

14. A university has to select an examiner from a list of 50 person, 20 of them women and 30
men, 10 of them knowing Hindi and 40 not, 15 of them being teachers and the remaining 35
not. What is the probability of the university selecting a Hindi-knowing women teacher?
(𝐴𝑛𝑠. 3⁄125)
15. An inspector of the Alaska pipeline has the task of comparing the reliability of two pumping
stations. Each station is susceptible to two kinds of failure: pump failure & leakage. When
either (or both) occur, the station must be shut down. The data at hand indicate that the
following probabilities prevail:

STATION 𝑃(𝑝𝑢𝑚𝑝 𝑓𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑢𝑟𝑒) 𝑃(𝑙𝑒𝑎𝑘𝑎𝑔𝑒) 𝑃(𝑏𝑜𝑡ℎ)

1 0.07 0.10 0.00
2 0.09 0.12 0.06
Which station has the higher probability of being shut down?
(Ans. station 1)
16. A manager has two assistants and he bases his decision on information supplied
independently by each one of them. The probability that he makes a mistake in his thinking
is 0.005. The probability that an assistant gives wrong information is 0.3. Assuming that the
mistakes made by the manager are independent of the information given by the assistants,
find the probability that he reaches a wrong decision.
(𝐴𝑛𝑠. 0.51245)
17. The odds that a book on statistics will be favourably reviewed by 3 independent critics are
3 to 2, 4 to 3 and 2 to 3 resp., what is the probability that of the three reviews:
(i) All will be favourable,
(ii) Majority of the reviews will be favourable,
(iii) Exactly one review will be favourable,
(iv) Exactly two reviews will be favourable
(v) At least one of the reviews will be favourable.

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 (Ans. 24/175, 94/175, 63/175, 14/35, 157/175)
18. An urn contains four tickets marked with numbers 112, 121, 211, 222 and one ticket is
drawn at random. Let 𝐴𝑖 (𝑖 = 1,2,3), be the event that 𝑖 𝑡ℎ digit of the number of the ticket
is drawn is 1. Discuss the independence of the events 𝐴1 , 𝐴2 and 𝐴3 .

19. Of 1000 assembled components, 10 have a working defect and 20 have a structural defect.
There is a good reason to assume that no component have both defects. What is the
probability that randomly chosen component will have either type of defect? (Ans. 0.03)

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