Year Investment Barrels per day No.

of days Total Barrels (mn) Oil Price

2010 -200 55
2011 -250 56.38
2012 -350 57.78
2013 -350 59.23
2014 -400 60.71
2015 6500 350 2.275 62.23
2016 13000 350 4.55 63.78
2017 22100 350 7.735 65.38
2018 26000 350 9.1 67.01
2019 29900 350 10.465 68.69
2020 32500 350 11.375 70.40
2021 32500 350 11.375 72.16
2022 32500 350 11.375 73.97
2023 32500 350 11.375 75.82
2024 32500 350 11.375 77.71
2025 32500 350 11.375 79.66
2026 32500 350 11.375 81.65
2027 32500 350 11.375 83.69
2028 32500 350 11.375 85.78
2029 32500 350 11.375 87.93
2030 32500 350 11.375 90.12
2031 32500 350 11.375 92.38
2032 32500 350 11.375 94.69
2033 32500 350 11.375 97.05
2034 26000 350 9.1 99.48
2035 23400 350 8.19 101.97
2036 20800 350 7.28 104.52
2037 18200 350 6.37 107.13
2038 15600 350 5.46 109.81
2039 13000 350 4.55 112.55
2040 10400 350 3.64 115.37
2041 7800 350 2.73 118.25
2042

Inflation 2.50%
Tax rate 45%

1.     Should Petrobras go ahead with the investment decision making (k=9%, NPV, IRR)?
2.     Perform a sensitivity analysis to identify the key risks and the variables that would affect the
3.     How much will Petrobras be willing to pay today for an improvement in the maintenance tec
4.     Suppose Petrobras wants to sell the field while in full production in 2020. At what price shou
 TR VC per unit TVC FC EBITDA Dep Capital Gain

141.567453 6 13.65 30 97.9174526 155

290.213278 6.15 27.9825 30.75 231.480778 155
505.696637 6.30 48.7595063 31.52 425.418381 155
609.81065 6.46 58.7982281 32.31 518.705703 155
718.814304 6.62 69.3084114 33.11 616.391506 155
800.852893 6.79 77.2186105 33.94 689.692036 155
820.874215 6.96 79.1490758 34.79 706.934337 155
841.396071 7.13 81.1278027 35.66 724.607695 155
862.430972 7.31 83.1559978 36.55 742.722888 155
883.991747 7.49 85.2348977 37.47 761.29096 155
906.09154 7.68 87.3657701 38.40 780.323234
928.743829 7.87 89.5499144 39.36 799.831315
951.962425 8.07 91.7886623 40.35 819.827098
975.761485 8.27 94.0833788 41.36 840.322775
1000.15552 8.48 96.4354633 42.39 861.330844
1025.15941 8.69 98.8463499 43.45 882.864116
1050.7884 8.91 101.317509 44.54 904.935718
1077.05811 9.13 103.850446 45.65 927.559111
1103.98456 9.36 106.446707 46.79 950.748089
905.267338 9.59 87.2863001 47.96 770.021532
835.109119 9.83 80.5216119 49.16 705.429014
760.877197 10.08 73.3641353 50.39 637.125607
682.411736 10.33 65.7984588 51.65 564.966136
599.547454 10.59 57.808646 52.94 488.800488
512.11345 10.85 49.3782184 54.26 408.473453
419.933029 11.12 40.4901391 55.62 323.824567
322.823516 11.40 31.1267944 57.01 234.687941

making (k=9%, NPV, IRR)?

 the variables that would affect the decision making.
mprovement in the maintenance technology that allows the field to be operative 357 days a year? -Right now, the field is opera
duction in 2020. At what price should it sell? If it wants to sell in 2030, what would be the selling price then?
EBIT EBIT (1-t) WC Changes in WC FCFF
-200
-250
-350
-350
-400
-57.08 -31.395401 7.08 -7.08 130.68
76.48 42.0644278 14.51 -7.43 204.50
270.42 148.730109 25.28 -10.77 314.50
363.71 200.038137 30.49 -5.21 360.24
461.39 253.765328 35.94 -5.45 414.22
534.69 294.08062 40.04 -4.10 453.18
551.93 303.563885 41.04 -1.00 459.56
569.61 313.284232 42.07 -1.03 469.31
587.72 323.247588 43.12 -1.05 479.30
606.29 333.460028 44.20 -1.08 489.54
780.32 429.177779 45.30 -1.10 430.28
799.83 439.907223 46.44 -1.13 441.04
819.83 450.904904 47.60 -1.16 452.07
840.32 462.177526 48.79 -1.19 463.37
861.33 473.731964 50.01 -1.22 474.95
882.86 485.575264 51.26 -1.25 486.83
904.94 497.714645 52.54 -1.28 499.00
927.56 510.157511 53.85 -1.31 511.47
950.75 522.911449 55.20 -1.35 524.26
770.02 423.511843 45.26 9.94 413.58
705.43 387.985958 41.76 3.51 384.48
637.13 350.419084 38.04 3.71 346.71
564.97 310.731375 34.12 3.92 306.81
488.80 268.840268 29.98 4.14 264.70
408.47 224.660399 25.61 4.37 220.29
323.82 178.103512 21.00 4.61 173.49
234.69 129.078367 16.14 4.86 124.22
ear? -Right now, the field is operational for 350 days. You’ve to value the technology needed to use the field for 357 days.
ing price then?
se the field for 357 days.