Backus Valuation Excel
Backus Valuation Excel
Backus Valuation Excel
ASSUMPTIONS:
Revenues:
The growth rate of the industry's sales will be 20% for this year
The growth rate of the industry's sales will be 10% for the next year
The growth rate of the industry's sales will be 5.5% for the 2023 and 3.5% onwards
Market share will remain flat over the years
Gross margin and EBITDA margin will be the average of the last four years
Tax:
The forecasted tax rate will be a tax rate average of the last years of operation
Current Assets:
The componentes of the CCC will be an average between the 2018 and 2019 cycle.
Fixed Assets:
The investment in fixed capital as a percentage of sales will remain constant in the coming years.
It is assumed that new investments will have a useful file of 11 years.
The investment in fixed assets will be financed with own resources.
Estimations
In order to proyect dividends we are going to assume a flat proyection of the 2019 dividend paid. In 2021 it will represen
75%. Afterwards it will be the 2019 dividend flat. We are also asumming stock is maintained the long run.
Valuation
In the perpetual growth DCF method we´ve used a FCFF growth of 7% in order to account for inflation and the recuperati
Forward Multiples we´ve used the median 2021 ratios.
t based on the 2018 and 2019 average Debt / EBITDA ratio.
nd paid. In 2021 it will represent 50% of the dividend paid and in 2022
ed the long run.
for inflation and the recuperation from the Covid pandemic. In the
Financial Planning
Projected Revenues
1 Revenues Estimation
Industry Revenues
PEN 000s (unless otherwise noted) 2017 2018 2019 2020
Company Revenues
PEN 000s (unless otherwise noted) 2017 2018 2019 2020E
MRP
Participación en
Monto el total Cost of
3,395.00 5.54% Debt
1,427.00 2.33% 7.00%
6,796.00 11.10%
944.00 1.54%
4,114.00 6.72%
15,868.00 25.91%
15,036.00 24.55%
13,665.00 22.31%
61,245.00
Effective
Number of firms Beta D/E Ratio Tax rate Unlevered beta Cash/Firm value
126 0.9 2.27% 18.53% 0.89 3.22%
1.32%
33.98%
8.59%
Unlevered beta corrected for cash HiLo Risk Standard deviation of equity
0.92 0.3779 2656%
Average Beta over time
Standard deviation in operating income (last 10 years) 2018 2019 2020
31.46% 0.74 1.05 1.06
age Beta over time
Average (2018-21)
0.94
Financial Planning
Projected Net Working Capital
2 NWK Estimation
9.75 16.07
95.61 70
418.41 327
(313) (241)
2028E 2029E
318,647 329,800
311,820 322,734
(1,081,379) (1,119,227)
(450,912) (466,694)
(15,248) (15,782)
Financial Planning
Projected Net Fixed Assets
D&A
Buildings 19,224 18,994 26,746 21,650
Machinery & Equipment 103,563 103,548 109,461 109,577
Furniture 30,856 28,662 27,779 50,832
Vehicles 22,071 20,784 20,958 20,139
Computer equipment 2,700 3,199 6,075 2,496
Returnable boxes and containers 74,964 75,407 77,952 77,254
Various equipment 10,638 10,122 11,189 11,657
Intagible assets 157,927 3,345 15,161 24,182
D&A Flow 421,943 264,061 295,321 317,787
Acum D&A
Buildings 230,236 249,230 275,976 297,626
Machinery & Equipment 1,017,468 1,121,016 1,230,477 1,340,054
Furniture 273,888 302,550 330,329 381,161
Vehicles 142,942 163,726 184,684 204,823
Computer equipment 11,677 14,876 20,951 23,447
Returnable boxes and containers 537,089 612,496 690,448 767,702
Various equipment 154,787 164,909 176,098 187,755
Intagible assets 448,156 466,667 481,828 506,010
Acum D&A 2,816,243 3,095,470 3,390,791 3,708,578
Useful life
35
15
6
8
4
8
8
6
2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E
4.4%
11
21,654
0
0
0
0
0
0
24,182
45,836
492,508
2,104,575
468,764
324,108
27,812
1,061,108
262,311
723,648
5,464,834
2029E
2,574,515
327,358
(247,078)
2,654,795
201,242
20,744
22,818
24,073
24,915
25,787
26,690
27,624
28,591
Financial Planning
Projected Financial Debt
2.94%
19,584
(20,742)
(3,089)
(4247) (4247) (4247) (4247) (4247) (4247) (4247) (4247)
2029E
112,463
(4247)
Financial Planning
Projected Financial Statements
5 Financial Planning
Income Statement
PEN 000s (unless otherwise noted) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E
Total Revenues 5,022,009 5,343,674 5,709,588 4,314,745 5,177,694 5,695,463 6,008,714 6,219,019 6,436,685 6,661,968 6,895,137 7,136,467 7,386,244
COGS (1,158,662) (1,169,519) (1,290,325) (1,106,281) (1,165,965) (1,282,561) (1,353,102) (1,400,461) (1,449,477) (1,500,209) (1,552,716) (1,607,061) (1,663,308)
Gross Profit 3,863,347 4,174,155 4,419,263 3,208,464 4,011,729 4,412,902 4,655,612 4,818,558 4,987,208 5,161,760 5,342,421 5,529,406 5,722,935
Operational Expenses (1,547,658) (1,265,591) (1,286,227) (1,117,628) (1,329,440) (1,462,384) (1,542,816) (1,596,814) (1,652,703) (1,710,547) (1,770,416) (1,832,381) (1,896,514)
EBITDA 2,315,689 2,908,564 3,133,036 2,090,836 2,682,289 2,950,518 3,112,796 3,221,744 3,334,505 3,451,213 3,572,005 3,697,025 3,826,421
D&A (282,643) (279,228) (295,321) (317,787) (298,806) (316,680) (322,756) (316,120) (276,812) (295,956) (306,547) (237,247) (247,078)
EBIT 2,033,046 2,629,336 2,837,715 1,773,049 2,383,482 2,633,838 2,790,040 2,905,624 3,057,693 3,155,256 3,265,458 3,459,778 3,579,343
Net Financial Expense (10,170) (1,720) 43,717 (16,238) (4,247) (4,247) (4,247) (4,247) (4,247) (4,247) (4,247) (4,247) (4,247)
EBT (Utilidad antes de impuestos) 2,022,876 2,627,616 2,881,432 1,756,811 2,379,235 2,629,590 2,785,792 2,901,377 3,053,446 3,151,009 3,261,211 3,455,531 3,575,096
Taxes 30.5% (632,595) (786,826) (869,961) (545,989) (724,941) (801,223) (848,817) (884,035) (930,370) (960,097) (993,675) (1,052,883) (1,089,314)
Net Income (Utilidad Neta) 1,390,281 1,840,790 2,011,471 1,210,822 1,654,294 1,828,367 1,936,975 2,017,342 2,123,076 2,190,912 2,267,536 2,402,648 2,485,782
Gross Profit Margin (% sales) 76.9% 78.1% 77.4% 74.4% 77.5% *We could use average o last margin.
EBITDA Margin ( % sales) 46.1% 54.4% 54.9% 48.5% 51.8%
Purchases 1,187,379 1,315,665 1,142,959 1,202,643 1,214,991 1,375,726 1,414,148 1,458,666 1,509,719 1,562,559 1,617,249 1,673,853
Financial Expenses (16238) (4247) (4247) (4247) (4247) (4247) (4247) (4247) (4247) (4247)
Balance Sheet
PEN 000s (unless otherwise noted) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E
Assets
Cash 1,337,171 708,030 561,469 532,231 718,435 1,075,485 1,145,518 1,205,704 1,326,207 1,527,518 1,806,329 2,140,895 2,558,019
Accounts Receivable 295,589 215,493 198,501 116,837 231,187 254,306 268,293 277,683 287,402 297,461 307,872 318,647 329,800
Inventory 213,926 231,786 257,126 293,804 226,233 248,857 262,544 271,733 281,244 291,087 301,275 311,820 322,734
Current Assets 1,846,686 1,155,309 1,017,096 942,872 1,175,855 1,578,647 1,676,355 1,755,120 1,894,852 2,116,066 2,415,476 2,771,362 3,210,552
Net Fixed Assets 2,895,977 2,842,947 2,813,847 2,719,195 2,649,864 2,585,607 2,529,157 2,488,664 2,497,126 2,496,428 2,495,474 2,574,515 2,654,795
Fixed Assets 2,895,977 2,842,947 2,813,847 2,719,195 2,649,864 2,585,607 2,529,157 2,488,664 2,497,126 2,496,428 2,495,474 2,574,515 2,654,795
TOTAL ASSETS 4,742,663 3,998,256 3,830,943 3,662,067 3,825,719 4,164,255 4,205,512 4,243,784 4,391,978 4,612,495 4,910,950 5,345,877 5,865,347
TOTAL LIABILITIES + EQUITY 1,950,923 2,383,029 2,617,850 3,382,003 2,866,105 4,710,612 6,759,833 8,806,068 10,962,225 13,190,704 15,497,122 17,940,013 20,467,446
Sannity Check -280,064 -959,615 546,358 2,554,321 4,562,284 6,570,247 8,578,210 10,586,173 12,594,136 14,602,099
Cash Flow (Indirect Method)
PEN 000s (unless otherwise noted) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E
Begining Balance n.a. 1,337,171 708,030 561,469 561,469 718,435 1,075,485 1,145,518 1,205,704 1,326,207 1,527,518 1,806,329 2,140,895
Net Change in Cash 156,966 357,050 70,034 60,186 120,503 201,312 278,810 334,566 417,123
Ending Balance 1,337,171 708,030 561,469 561,469 718,435 1,075,485 1,145,518 1,205,704 1,326,207 1,527,518 1,806,329 2,140,895 2,558,019
Valuation
DCF Valuation
6 Estimación del Free Cash Flow (FCFF - UFCF y FCFE - LFCF) Planning Horizon
Unlevered Free Cash Flow = Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
PEN 000s (unless otherwise noted) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E
Unlevered Free Cash Flows from the Planning Horizon
EBIT*(1-T) 1,680,355 1,856,856 1,966,978 2,048,465 2,155,674 2,224,456 2,302,148 2,439,144 2,523,437
+ Depreciation and Amortization (D&A) 298,806 316,680 322,756 316,120 276,812 295,956 306,547 237,247 247,078
- Capital Expenditures (Capex) (229,475) (252,423) (266,306) (275,627) (285,274) (295,259) (305,593) (316,288) (327,358)
- Increases in Net Working Capital (571,026) (37,486) 79,802 7,112 10,538 14,234 14,733 15,248 15,782
Unlevered Free Cash Flow (Planning Horizon) 1,178,660 1,883,627 2,103,230 2,096,070 2,157,749 2,239,388 2,317,835 2,375,351 2,458,938
8 Present Value Calculations (as if EoP 2020) Present Value Calculations (as if EoP 2020)
PEN 000s (unless otherwise noted) PEN 000s (unless otherwise noted) N° Shares
0 Current Market Price
Discount Rate: WACC 12.37% Discount Rate: WACC 12.37% Premium (A)
N° Shares (Converted)
Cash Flows 10,476,045 37.9% Cash Flows 10,476,045 39.2% Premium (B)
Terminal Value (Perpetual Growth method) 17,173,657 62.1% Terminal Value (Exit Multiple method) 16,256,978 60.8% N° Shares (Converted)
Enterprise Value (EV) 27,649,702 Enterprise Value (EV) 26,733,023 Premium (Investment)
N° Shares (Converted)
Less: Net Debt -461,744 Less: Net Debt -461,744
Nominal Value per Share
Equity Value (EqV) 27,187,958 Equity Value (EqV) 26,271,279 Percentage
Share A Value (PEN) 203.71 10.11% Share A Value (PEN) 196.84 6.40%
Shares B Value (PEN) 201.94 Shares B Value (PEN) 195.13 6.40%
Investment Share Value (PEN) 19.82 Investment Share Value (PEN) 19.15 6.40%
WACC
12.37% 12.37%
12.62% 12.62%
12.87% 12.87%
EV / EBITDA EV / EBITDA EV / EBITDA P / E "TTM" P / E 2021 TV / EBITDA -> Datos que provienen de
TTM 2021 2022 Transac Comps MA Advanced Search.
Pueden ser de 8 a 12
Comparables Market Cap (PEN MM) Transaction Comps Total Value (US
transacciones de Considerar el mismo sector /
As of 31/12/2020 PEN MM As of 31/12/2018 PEN
manera tentativa (esMM subsector que el indicado en
RV.
AMBEV SA 54.58 10.19x 12.12x 11.15x 21.40x 23.62x Transaction 1 posible que sean más17.231
o 14.04x
menos).
BECLE SAB DE CV 9.60 19.58x 24.47x 22.25x 33.04x 35.64x Transaction 2 2.200 10.05x
VINA CONCHA Y TORO SA 1.30 7.36x 7.82x 7.72x 11.26x 11.11x Transaction 3 0.931 10.80x
CIA CERVECERIAS UNIDAS SA 3.89 7.93x 8.67x 8.16x 22.21x 20.68x Transaction 4 0.830 25.61x
FOMENTO ECONOMICO MEXICA-UBD 27.55 12.05x 9.61x 8.77x N.A. 25.37x Transaction 5 0.507 7.99x
ARCA CONTINENTAL SAB DE CV 10.42 6.77x 7.66x 7.11x 20.28x 16.58x Transaction 6 0.155 5.26x
EMBOTELLADORA ANDINA-A PREF 2.04 6.42x 5.73x 5.46x 12.33x 10.93x Transaction 7 0.031 16.94x
COCA-COLA FEMSA SAB DE CV 11.14 7.33x 7.24x 6.85x 19.99x 17.53x Transaction 8 0.016 2.04x
ORGANIZACION CULTIBA SAB CV 0.42 12.59x N.A. N.A. 10.36x N.A. Transaction 9 0.011 1.75x
Transaction 10 0.009 16.94x
Transaction 11 0.008 1.28x
First Quartile 7.3x 7.6x 7.0x 12.1x 15.2x First Quartile 3.7x
Second Quartile (Median) 7.9x 8.2x 7.9x 20.1x 19.1x Second Quartile (Median) 10.1x
Third Quartile 12.1x 10.2x 9.4x 21.6x 24.1x Third Quartile 15.5x
Fourth Quartile 19.6x 24.5x 22.3x 33.0x 35.6x Fourth Quartile 25.6x
Simple Mean 10.0x 10.4x 9.7x 18.9x 20.2x Simple Mean 10.2x
Weighted Avg. 10.6x 11.4x 10.5x 16.9x 23.3x Weighted Avg. 13.7x
Investment
2020 2021E 2022E Shares A Shares B
Bloomberg FLDS Shares
EBITDA 2,090,836 2,682,289 2,950,518 Datos que provienen de proyecciones de N° Shares 76,046,495 2,025,707 569,514,715
analistas -> FLDS en Bloomberg
EPS (A) 8.97 12.25 13.54 Percentage 56.32% 1.50% 42.18%
EPS (B) 9.86 12.25 13.54 Total Shares 133,466,925 134,631,304 1,371,743,395
EPS (Investment) 0.90 1.23 1.35