Tourism Theory of Change

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Change
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FINANCE, COMPETITIVENESS AND INNOVATION TOURISM THEORY OF CHANGE 2018
Contents
Tourism as a Development Tool 4
Tourism and Theory of Change 5
Principles of Theory of Change 6
Key ToC Components 8
FCI's Programmatic ToC 11
1. Long-term Outcomes and Assumptions 11
2. Challenges and Intermediate Outcomes 13
3. Interventions 16
4. Tourism Indicators 26
Closing Note 29
Appendices 30
FCI Tourism Theory of Change 2018 30
Additional Readings 31
Other Sources 37
3
Tourism as a Development Tool
Tourism is a powerful driver of economic growth and In Namibia in 2011, communal conservancies generated
job creation, particularly for emerging economies.1 US$ 3.7 million in direct benefits to communities and created
Worth US$ 7 trillion and growing, tourism is the largest 1,512 full-time jobs and 11,223 part-time jobs.7
service industry in the world and accounts for 10 percent
The tourism sector also contributes to the protection of biodiversity
of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP).2 Moreover,
and natural areas by increasing the monetary value of live
it has high growth potential. Its contribution to global GDP is
wildlife. Gorilla tourism in Uganda is estimated to be worth
forecasted to grow by almost 4 percent per year over the next
US$ 34.3 million.8 In Costa Rica, largely because of tourism,
10 years. The tourism sector supported 292 million people
private reserves receive financial contributions from the
worldwide, or one in 10 jobs.3
government for protecting biodiversity, conserving water
Yet tourism as a development tool is often poorly understood reservoirs, and reducing carbon emissions.9
and utilized. It has a wide supply chain that includes
Tourism can also revive or protect cultural heritage.
transport providers, agriculture producers, craftspeople,
The UNESCO World Heritage List currently holds 1,052
and microbusinesses. This gives the sector added value as a
properties, 814 of which are cultural. Tourism growth is one
job creator, particularly in rural areas where young people
of the outcomes pursued by countries when nominating their
may have few other opportunities, helping to reduce rural-
national sites.10
urban migration.4 In Africa, between 2000 and 2014, the
number of jobs attributable to the sector nearly doubled from Travel and tourism is also one of the few sectors where female
11.6 million to 20.5 million, which represents 8.1 percent of labor participation is already above parity in some regions.11
the region’s total employment.5 According to a 2013 International Labour Organization analysis,
women make up more than 60 percent of all workers in tourism.12
Community-based tourism can have a significant positive
effect on rural households. In Thailand, poverty rates are For these reasons and more, tourism is considered vital to the
around 10 percent lower in villages next to protected areas.6 growth of many emerging economies.13
1
As defined by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
2
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). (2016). Tourism highlights, 2016 Edition.
3
World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC). (2017). Travel & tourism global economic impact & issues 2017.
4
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). (2013). Sustainable tourism for development guidebook. First edition: 2013.
5
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). (2015). Affiliate members regional report: Volume four - Tourism in Africa: A tool for development.
6
Wang, G., Innes, J. L., Wu, S. W., Krzyzanowski, J., Yin, Y., Dai, S., ... Liu, S. (2012). National park development in China: Conservation or commercialization?
AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 41(3), 247–261.
7
World Bank Group. (2013). Financing community private-sector tourism partnerships in Namibia’s conservancies: The case for change. Draft presentation.
8
Moyini, Y., & Uwimbabazi, B. (n.d.). FINAL DRAFT Analysis of the economic significance of gorilla tourism in Uganda.
Rwanda: International Gorilla Conservation Programme.
9
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). (2005). Making tourism more sustainable - A guide for policy makers.
10
Ruiz Lanuza, A., & Pulido Fernández, J. I. (2015). El impacto del turismo en los Sitios Patrimonio de la Humanidad. Una revisión de las publicaciones científicas de la
base de datos Scopus. PASOS Revista de Turismo y Patrimonio Cultural, 13(5), 247-1264.
11
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) and the United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (UN Women). (2011).
Global report on women in tourism 2010. Preliminary findings.
12
Baum, Thomas. (2013). International perspectives on women and work in hotels, catering and tourism. Geneva, Switzerland: International Labour Office.
13
For more reasons, see WBG publication 20 Reasons Tourism Counts for Development.
4
Tourism and Theory of Change Bank Group Task Team Leaders (TTLs), Project Teams,
and Tourism Specialists, as part of a suite of tools to help
Theory of Change in tourism is about understanding why and
improve tourism project design. The report articulates the
how change happens, so that development programs can make
"why" and "how" of FCI’s approach to project design and
the most of the development potential of this sector.
implementation. It includes a step-by-step guide to using
It is critically important that there is full understanding of the Theory of Change for tourism project and program design.
challenges, assumptions, solutions and indicators for tourism.
In the preparation of this report, the FCI Global Tourism Team
The evidence behind tourism as a positive development change
and researchers at Pennsylvania State University conducted
agent also needs to be regularly challenged and examined.
an extensive literature review of academic sources, on Theory
To be successful, projects need to take the entire tourism of Change and the evidence of tourism's development impact.
landscape into consideration and leverage insights from past The team also analyzed the results chains of 16 tourism
projects. Theory of Change (ToC) provides a framework for lending projects. The team also held a series of team visioning
the planning, execution and evaluation of tourism projects workshops designed to validate tourism development challenges,
and programs that connects to project goals and development intervention/solution pathways, outcomes and indicators.
objectives, and helps maximize tourism’s potential. The result of this work is the refined FCI Tourism Theory of
This report explains Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation Change shown below and the step-by-step guidance notes
(FCI) Global Practice’s Tourism ToC. It is written for World included on the following pages.
FCI TOURISM THEORY OF CHANGE 2018

DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES RECOMMENDED FCI TOURISM INTERVENTIONS INTERMEDIATE OUTCOMES LONG-TERM OUTCOMES
RESTRICTIVE
REGULATORY INVESTMENT VISA OPEN BUSINESS
MACRO
REFORM PROMOTION FACILITATION ENVIRONMENT
ENVIRONMENT
COMPETITIVE
HIGH- DESTINATIONS
WEAK PRIVATE FINANCIAL CAPACITY SUPPLY
PERFORMING
SECTOR MECHANISMS BUILDING CHAINS FIRMS
POOR TOURISM
TOURISM QUALITY MARKETING CLEAR POLICY
INSTITUTIONAL POLICY &
GOVERNANCE STANDARDS & RESEARCH DIRECTION
PLANNING
VISION
SUSTAINABLE
UNDERPERFORMING PRODUCT SITE SITE HIGH-QUALITY
DESTINATIONS
ASSETS DEVELOPMENT MANAGEMENT DEVELOPMENT ASSETS
NARROW
INCLUSIVE SKILLS STAKEHOLDER WIDE BENEFIT
BENEFIT
PROGRAMS DEVELOPMENT ENGAGEMENT DISTRIBUTION
DISTRIBUTION INCLUSIVE
DESTINATIONS
5
“Every program is packed with beliefs, assumptions, and hypotheses about how
change happens... Theory of Change is about articulating these many underlying
assumptions about how change will happen in a program.”14
- ISABEL VOGEL, U.K. DEPARTMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (DFID)
Principles of Theory of Change Logical Framework Approach (LFA) was developed in 1969
to support planning and evaluation to develop a matrix or
Every project design contains assumptions about how change
logframe. LFA illustrates program components and helps
happens. When these beliefs are incorrect, incomplete, or the
to clarify program outcomes, inputs, and activities.
assumptions on which they are based are not fully explored,
projects may be less effective. ToC is a tool to help improve Results Framework (RF) (also referred to as the Results
project outcomes. Chain) is a planning, management, and communications
tool first used in the mid-1990s by USAID as part of a new
Theory of Change originated in the 1990s in the field of
program monitoring approach. RF focuses on anticipating
community-based social change initiatives in the United
results from specific interventions, rather than explaining
States. The concept was initially understood as a way to
causality.
describe “the pathways of change that lead to the long-term
goal and the connections between activities, outputs, and Results Framework and ToC are complementary tools,
outcomes that occur at each step along the way” in a given but they are not the same. A Theory of Change provides
project or intervention program.15 ToC’s widespread use is the broader context and underlying assumptions
due to its ability to bring a more integrated approach to that are the foundation for a Results Framework.
program scoping, design, and strategy development, right ToC’s main advantage is, first, that it requires clarity on
through implementation, evaluation, and impact assessment. the underlying causes of the problems to be addressed.
Theory of Change is just one of several models available for Second, it requires project teams to articulate the assumptions
planning and evaluation. Others include Logical Framework about the relationship between the problems and the
Approach and Results Frameworks. interventions. This approach allows teams to build more
robust projects and more realistic results chains, which is
why the WBG has adopted ToC as its prevailing change
management framework.
14
Vogel, I. (2012). Review of the use of “Theory of Change” in international development. London, U.K.: DFID.
15
Taplin, D., & Clark, H. (2012). Theory of change basics: A primer on theory of change. New York, N.Y.: ActKnowledge. Measure Evaluation. (n.d.). Results Framework.
6
Rationale for Using ToC at Each Stage
ToC can be used in project design, project evaluation, program planning and communications. This report uses ToC for FCI
program planning and communication. The principles and steps involved are also applicable to project design.16
Project Design Project Evaluation Program Planning
Purpose To help the team explore To track the evidence of To clarify what a program
the connections between change and show to what is trying to achieve, what
development challenges, extent the program’s bundle of development
interventions, and interventions have challenges it addresses, and
outcomes; and to ensure addressed the identified how it goes about solving
all assumptions are development challenges. them. It provides clarity
critically evaluated. in the communication of
It reduces risks of failure what the tourism program
in achieving the desired involves and why, and
outcomes. explains the rationale
behind the interventions
used.
Global Tourism Team working with M&E Specialists during a ToC visioning session.
16
Taplin, D., & Clark, H. (2012). Theory of change basics: A primer on theory of change. New York, N.Y.: ActKnowledge. Measure Evaluation. (n.d.). Results Framework.
7
Key ToC Components
Identify
01 02 03 04
Determine
challenges Design
long-term Develop
and establish intervention
outcomes and indicators
intermediate pathways
assumptions
outcomes
Source: Adapted from ActKnowledge, 201217
1. Long-term outcomes (LTO) and assumptions

The most important element of a ToC is the long-term outcome–the goal that the project or program is designed to
achieve. This outcome must be attributable to the project, inside the project "accountability ceiling", meaning that it
can be achieved within the life of, and be attributed to, the project. Assumptions have been made in creation of the LTO.
These are the assumed conditions needed for the program or project to succeed. There are three main types of assumptions:
(i) assumptions about the relationship between activities and outcomes, (ii) assumptions about the political or economic
environment in which the project takes place, and (iii) assumptions about the outcome framework, the relevance of the
outcomes, and the order in which they are likely to occur. The process of exposing, articulating, and questioning assumptions
is a critical element of a ToC.18
2. Challenges and intermediate outcomes

Intermediate outcomes are milestones on the path to achieving the long-term outcome. They usually include the changes
(political, social, economic, behavioral, etc.) that need to occur for the long-term outcome to be achieved. In addition
to the outcomes, the challenges or "binding constraints" standing in the way of the outcomes, need to be articulated.
These may be related to capacity, budget, or enabling environment (see table on page 14).
3. Intervention pathways
Intervention pathways are the project’s programs and activities, such as training, investment promotion, and marketing, that
are designed to directly address the challenges and help achieve intermediate and long-term outcomes (see page 14).
4. Indicators
These are the markers that will determine when an outcome, long-term or intermediate, has been achieved. Development of
proper indicators is critical, so that progress can be assessed and measured for the established outcomes (or preconditions)
(see indicators on page 26).
17
FCI’s Tourism ToC is based on change-management social enterprise ActKnowledge’s approach. The Additional Readings on page 31 includes more resources on the
ActKnowledge approach and Theory of Change.
18
Vogel, I. (2012), op. cit.
8
Stakeholder Participation The public sector plays many roles in tourism, including:
Stakeholders are a key part of developing an effective • Developing and enforcing policies, plans, and
ToC. Stakeholder participation increases the likelihood regulations related to tourism;
of correctly mapping existing development challenges • Providing or facilitating the construction and
to their underlying causes, and of developing the
maintenance of infrastructure;
right activities to tackle the barriers within the paths
• Conservation of natural and historical assets; and
of change.
• Maintenance of tourism attractions.
Effective stakeholder participation involves:
(i) Identifying all actors that may have influence Actors specific to this group include the Ministry of
or interest and/or may be affected by the Tourism or tourism board, municipality, park authority,
project; and other regional or local governments
(ii) Mapping the relationship between the power
they hold and the interest they have in the Individuals and civil society
project; and With differing levels of influence, concerns, and needs,
(iii) Developing measures to engage them at different
individuals and civil society make up a highly diverse
project stages.
group. It includes community groups, nonprofit
Private sector associations, and online interest groups. Tourists
(national, regional, and international, including diaspora)
This group plays an essential role in the tourism
are included here as well.
sector. In most cases, they are the direct providers that
offer tourism services to visitors. The private sector
Other institutions
encompasses businesses along the tourism supply chain
This group includes all institutional actors with variable
and includes both local and international providers
of goods, services, and investment capital (foreign, influence, power, and interests in the development of the
national, and diaspora investors). tourism industry. It includes international donors, such
as the World Bank, thought-leadership organizations
Public sector such as the UNWTO, as well as destination management
The public sector is composed of a range of governmental organizations, which are usually made up of a variety
institutions that are involved in tourism, generally of private and public participants, and scientific and
organized into the local, national, and regional levels. research communities.
9
A daily market scene in Charminar, Hyderabad.
10
FCI’s Programmatic
Tourism Theory of Change
1. Long-term Outcomes and Assumptions
Identify
01 02 03 04
Determine
challenges Design
long-term Develop
assumptions
outcomes
Step one of Theory of Change is to identify long-term outcomes and assumptions. WBG President Jim Yong Kim stressed the
integral role of tourism in fulfilling the WBG twin goals by creating jobs, attracting private-sector investments, conserving
wildlife and biodiversity, and promoting inclusive economic growth, in his speech at the 2015 WBG Tourism Forum.19
In order to achieve these goals, FCI tourism organizes interventions to result in three main long-term outcomes:
• Competitiveness: to improve the economic performance of the tourism sector by enhancing the destination’s ability
to attract and satisfy tourists.20
• Sustainability: to ensure tourism takes full account of its current and future economic, social, and environmental
impacts; and address the needs of visitors, the sector, the environment, and host communities.21
• Inclusiveness: to ensure tourism development brings broad benefits across the population, including women, youth,
indigenous groups, and those marginalized through geography, conflict, or climate-related events.22
These outcomes are designed to connect with the IFC for Maximizing Finance for Development (MFD), which
features on the following page. Assumptions, in this case, connect the intermediate outcomes with the long-term
outcomes, and have been verified through the comprehensive literature search conducted by Penn State University.
This demonstrated how, for example, open-business environment and higher-performing firms lead to more competitive
destinations. The evidence base for the assumptions in FCI's Theory of Change are included in the extensive Additional
Readings on page 31.
19
Kim, J.Y. (2015, December 8). Speech by World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim at the World Bank Group Tourism Forum 2015: Driving Development
Through Tourism.
20
The competitiveness of a destination depends on: (i) the competitiveness of the firms that supply services in the destination and
(ii) the supply-side factors that must exist at a destination that determine its image and attractiveness. (Enright, M., 2004).
21
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). (2016). International year of sustainable tourism for development 2017.
22
Bakker, M. & Messerli, H. (2015). Inclusive growth versus pro-poor growth: Implications for tourism development. Tourism and Hospitality Research, 17(4), 384-391.
11
Ile de Gorée Island in Dakar, Senegal–one of the earliest European settlements in West Africa.
Maximizing Finance for Development (MFD): The Cascade

MFD in the tourism sector follows these steps:
1. Prioritize cost-effective commercial financing by working with the private sector to identify and facilitate
new investments.
2. Where commercial financing is not cost-effective or viable due to perceived risks or market failures,
focus support on addressing these market failures through sequenced reforms to strengthen tourism
sector policies, regulations, and institutions to enable such financing to materialize.
3. Where risks remain high and raise the cost of commercial capital beyond that which can be afforded by
project or corporate returns, explore the potential for lowering the financing cost by deploying concessional
and public resources in risk-sharing instruments, such as linking investors to the Private Sector Window
pipeline or other concessional finance options as part of the facilitation process. Alternatively, examine
options for public-private collaboration via tourism sector public-private partnerships (PPPs).
Source: World Bank Group (2017). Maximizing Finance for Development: Leveraging the Private Sector for Growth and Sustainable Development.
Development Committee Paper, World Bank Internal Document.
12
2. Challenges and Intermediate Outcomes
Identify
01 02 03 04
Determine
challenges Design
long-term Develop
assumptions
outcomes
Step two is to identify challenges and establish intermediate outcomes. While each project may have specific intermediate
outcomes, the five outcomes listed in the table on the next page are the most likely intermediate steps to create competitive,
sustainable, and inclusive destinations. Shown on the left of the table, these outcomes are explained, and evidence and
sources are provided to support the value of these outcomes. These sources can be explored further using the Additional
Readings on page 31. The challenges standing in the way of the achievement of the outcomes are listed on the right. These
can be used as a checklist or template for a Theory of Change project.
13
Intermediate Outcomes Challenges
1. Open business environment Burdensome licensing, regulatory, and

Creating an open, business-friendly environment helps the legal frameworks
private sector thrive. Business-environment reforms help Outdated and contradictory laws
attract foreign and domestic investment;23 allow domestic, Unattractive tourism investment environment
foreign, and joint-venture companies to establish or expand; Ineffective incentives for tourism
create new jobs;24 and improve efficiency at the firm level.25 Visa/access cost and burden
Poor public-private dialogue (PPD)
Low security and visitor safety
2. High-performing firms Difficulty in accessing finance

Competitive destinations are characterized by high- Lack of access to land
performing firms, and a more competitive private sector Lack of legal knowhow
promotes job creation and economic growth.26 Access to Poor marketing and market access
finance is fundamental for growing firms and one of the Poor working conditions
primary factors of private sector development, especially Weak SME support and incentives
for SMEs.27 Improving linkages between the tourism Low management and business
sector and other industries has been found to enhance development capacity
firm competitiveness and boost employment generation.28
3. Clear policy direction Lack of clear direction

Sustainable destinations do not happen on their own. Poor prioritization and vision
They require a deliberate, clear policy direction and Lack of integrated destination planning
leadership. Sustainable destinations are a result of many Lack of data on demand
management factors working together, including proper Limited public sector capacity
planning, good policy, reliable data and research, high Poor service quality
standards, good governance and coordination, capacity, Lack of public sector investment
and site development. Clear policy direction has numerous Poor marketing and promotion
benefits, such as better tourism planning, improved market Lack of infrastructure
positioning, better tourism infrastructure, and enhanced
security. FCI’s tourism entry point is most frequently
focused on tourism policy and planning.
23
Gatsinzi, J., & Donaldson, R. (2010). Investment challenges in the hotel industry in Kigali, Rwanda: Hotel managers’ perspectives. Development Southern Africa,
27(2), 225-240.
24
Chao, C., Hazari, B. R., Laffargue, J. P., Sgro, P. M., Laffargue, J., & Yu, E. S. H. (2005). Tourism, jobs, capital accumulation and the economy: A dynamic
analysis. Nota di Lavoro, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, No. 136. 2005.
25
Turco, D. M., Swart, K., Bob, U., & Moodley, V. (2003). Socio-economic Impacts of Sport Tourism in the Durban Unicity, South Africa. Journal of Sport
Tourism, 8(4), 223-239.
26
World Bank. (2015). Trade & competitiveness global practice: Expanding market opportunity & enabling private initiative for dynamic economies.
Washington, DC: World Bank.
27
Holden, P., & Howell, H. (2009). Enhancing access to finance in the Caribbean: Private sector development discussion paper #4. Washington, DC:
Inter-American Development Bank.
28
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2001). Enhancing SME competitiveness: The OECD Bologna ministerial conference. Paris,
France: OECD.
4. High-quality assets Poor interagency coordination

The quality of a destination’s tourism assets and experiences, Poor visitor management
and their alignment with market demand, has a significant Limited rent capture
impact on the competitiveness and sustainability of the Lack of environmental and heritage regulations
destination.29 Tourism assets include natural features, Poor heritage, culture and natural asset management
landscapes, cultural sites, unique culinary traditions, resorts, Outdated and undifferentiated product(s)
convention centers and cities. Enhancing the quality of Overcrowding and degradation
tourism assets improves visitor yield (spending per visitor),
protects the destination’s assets, and boosts the overall
economic impact from tourism. FCI work focuses on
product development, the ownership and management
of sites, and the ability to maintain them over time.
5. Inclusive tourism value chains Low female inclusion

Inclusive destinations have been found to be more Lack of community involvement and
competitive in the long term.30 They also demonstrate a consultation mechanisms
deep, well-connected tourism supply chain, which links Weak supply chain
related suppliers, such as agriculture, food producers, and Low youth involvement
service providers. The development of these linkages is Low community involvement
essential for tourism to maximize its potential for poverty High geographic concentration
reduction, economic growth, and employment generation.31 Low tourism awareness
Key barriers to inclusion are lack of tourism skills and High degree of informality
knowhow at varying levels. This can result in delays in the
development of products and services, destination stagnation,
and leakage of benefits from the local communities.32, 33
Investing in skills can also bring other benefits, such as
improved health, better opportunities for women and
young people, and greater productivity, which is closely
linked to the capacity of tourism to reduce poverty.34
29
Blazeska, D., Milenkovski, A., & Gramatnikovski, S. (2015). The quality of the tourist destination a key factor for increasing their attractiveness. UTMS Journal of
Economics, 6(2), 341-353.
30
McKinsey & Company. (2015). The power of parity: How advancing women’s equality can add $12 trillion to global growth. McKinsey Global Institute.
31
Munjal, P. (2013). Measuring the economic impact of the tourism industry in India using the Tourism Satellite Account and input-output analysis. Tourism Economics,
19(6), 1345-1359.
32
Koutra, C. (2007). Building capacities for tourism development and poverty reduction. Brighton, U.K.: University of Brighton.
33
Moscardo, G. (2008). Building community capacity for tourism development. Australia: CABI.
34
Koutra, C. (2007). Building capacities for tourism development and poverty reduction. Brighton, U.K.: University of Brighton.
15
3. Interventions
Identify
01 02 03 04
Determine
challenges Design
long-term Develop
assumptions
outcomes
Step three involves designing interventions pathways, which are types of project activities, actions, and programs that are
used to address the challenges outlined in the previous section.
3.1 Open Business Environment

FCI’s tourism approach goes beyond investment climate and regulatory business environment to focus on factors that are
most relevant to the tourism sector: property rights, business registration, contract compliance, stability and security, rule
of law, appropriate labor costs, access, visas and innovation framework.35
There are three main intervention categories addressing an open business environment:
• Regulatory reform. Regulations relating to tourism, such as business licensing, taxes and aviation policy, can be overly
burdensome and negatively impact tourism growth. This intervention path involves identifying the opportunity costs
of these policies and facilitates a way to improve policies and tourism outcomes.
• Investment promotion. Investment promotion can help attract airlines, travel and hospitality companies to invest in
the destination, driving visitor demand and creating jobs. The tourism team often facilitates investment promotion and
planning in coordination with IFC.
• Visa facilitation. Research reveals that visa facilitation can increase international tourist arrivals of affected markets by
5 to 25 percent, following changes in visa policy.36 This intervention path involves identifying the cost-benefit analysis
of current visas procedures and helps facilitate a way to easier access.
Examples of tourism projects with business environment components include IFC Mozambique Tourism Anchor Investment
Program (544007), Lesotho Tourism (591907), Tourism St. Lucia (581548), IFC Tourism Cusco (581547), Madagascar
Integrated Growth Poles (P083351), and Tanzania Business Environment and Competitiveness for Jobs DPO (P150009).
Cárdenas-García, P. J., Sánchez-Rivero, M., & Pulido-Fernández, J. I. (2013). Does tourism growth influence economic development? Journal of Travel Research, 54(2),
35
206-221.
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) and World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC). (2012). The Impact of Visa Facilitation on Job Creation in the G20
36
Economies. Madrid, Spain. Retrieved from https://www.wttc.org/-/media/files/reports/policy%20research/visa_facilitation%20g20.pdf
16
Case Study on Peru
Investment Climate Tourism Cusco (581547) in Peru aimed to reduce transaction costs affecting tourism sector
entrepreneurs by streamlining procedures to obtaining licenses and permits for the startup and operation of
tourism business in Cusco. Prior to the project, the private sector was affected by cumbersome procedures and
lack of articulation among entities affecting cultural protected assets. In addition, tourism was not very inclusive.
Cusco had the highest tourism growth in the country, but it continued to be one of the poorest regions of Peru.
The sector suffered from excessive and inadequate bureaucratic procedures due to lack of coordination between different
public entities and inadequate training and use of technology, which all resulted in high transaction costs for tourism
operators. The project conducted diagnostic studies to identify key licenses and permits that were constricting tourism
operations, developed a reform proposal, and implemented and monitored it. Following this intervention, the time to
get licenses and permits decreased by 1,130 days, a saving of 75 percent. A total of 750 public servants were trained
in 37 training events (46 percent women), and two new IT systems were put in place to issue and track licenses.
US$ 760,000 of compliance cost savings to the private sector was achieved within eight months of reform implementation.
Peruvian women in Lamay, Peru. Photo © Dominic Chavez/World Bank
17
3.2 High-performing Firms

This intervention pathway comprises activities that aim to enhance tourism’s private-sector performance at the firm level.
A high-performing private sector is vital to tourism’s long-term success and visitors’ satisfication with the destination.
The Global Tourism Team recommends three intervention categories for high-performing firms:
• Financial mechanisms. Access to finance is often a significant constraint to firm competitiveness. Research shows
access to finance, combined with the ability of firms to create fixed capital, determines their capital productivity. This
intervention may include matching grants or concessionary loans in conjunction with business training and mentorship.
• Capacity building. Skills are vitally important to all tourism interventions because they can result in improved
management, higher revenue, increased customer satisfaction, better perception of the brand destination, and better
policy planning and destination management. Skills interventions can include training or capacity building in business,
management, marketing, customer service, and guiding.
• Supply-chain development. This intervention is about strengthening linkages between the tourism sector and potential
and actual suppliers of goods and services to the tourism value chain. The development of these linkages is essential
for tourism to maximize its potential on poverty reduction, economic growth, and employment generation.
Examples of FCI tourism projects with firm-performance components include Competitiveness and Private Sector
Development Project in Mozambique (P106355); the Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprise Project in Ghana (P085006);
the Growth & Competitiveness Project in The Gambia (P114240); and the Competitiveness for Tourism Development
in Cape Verde (P146666).
Figure 3: Business Enabling Environment Path of Change
New and/
or better
Labor jobs are
productivity generated
Job and
numbers management
Companies increase efficiencies
start or at firm level
Destination expand due increase
attracts to more
Business foreign and investment
enabling domestic
environment investment
is improved
18
Case Study on Ghana
The Ghana–Micro, Small and Medium Enterprise Project (P085006) aimed to enhance the competitiveness and employment
levels of Ghanaian MSMEs. At the time of project design, the MSME sector contributed only around 6 percent of the
GDP, despite representing about 30 percent of the workforce. Making up the majority of the tourism sector, this group
of companies faced numerous constraints. These included cumbersome and ineffective administrative procedures, lack
of capacity in public agencies to implement and enforce regulations, and the high cost of doing business that prevented
small and medium enterprises (SMEs) from expanding and reaching a size sufficient to compete in both domestic and
world markets. Potentially bankable SMEs lacked the management capacity, entrepreneurial appetite, business planning,
and financial skills to develop into attractive propositions for banks. They did not have sufficient access to land, labor,
information, updated equipment, research, and development to innovate and remain competitive. Their access to public
contracts and subcontracts was limited, arising from cumbersome bidding procedures.
The project was designed to address these constraints with three main components:
1. Increasing access to commercially viable SME credit operations in locally based commercial banks;
2. Facilitating access to markets, trade facilitation, and entrepreneurship development to help MSMEs overcome
technical barriers to their expansion in the domestic and foreign markets; and
3. Improving the business environment to make it easier to register and start a business.
Indicators selected included the number of banks participating, number of MSMEs reporting improved operational
efficiencies, and percentage of MSMEs applying new management techniques.
Fishermen working on their boats in Ghana.
19
3.3 Clear Policy Direction

Good leadership and clear policy direction improve the sustainability of a destination or a tourism product.37
Sustainability is measured by the destination’s ability to address the needs of visitors, the industry, the environment, and
host communities in the long term.
There are four recommended intervention categories for policy direction:
• Tourism policy and planning. Having a clear policy direction helps support the growth of tourism and ensure
interventions take a long-term view. Tourism policies clarify the high-level tourism vision and the role and responsibilities
of different institutions. Tourism plans provide the roadmap for how to achieve the vision sustainably. Policy and
planning interventions include a tourism master plan, policies to support investment and product development.
• Tourism governance. Strengthening the institutions involved in tourism is critical to long-term success and helps
provide a platform for collaboration between the public and private sectors. Interventions may include training,
organizational planning, association support, and public-private dialogue facilitation through a federation, tourism
council or other cross-cutting agency.
• Tourism marketing and research. High-quality, targeted marketing is critical to the achievement of the destination’s goals
and vision. Research and data collection helps both inform marketing and promotion, and monitor its effectiveness.
This intervention can include improving tourism data collection, market research and destination marketing strategies.
• Tourism standards and capacity. Managing the growth of tourism businesses and ensuring visitors' health and safety
are at the core of this category. The tourism team works with the government to help establish tourism industry
standards and licensing for different tourism suppliers, such as accommodation, tour guides, and SMEs. FCI leverages
IFC Business Edge, a management training tool, and IFC Edge building standards.38
Examples of projects with policy components include the Sri Lanka Tourism Competitiveness (P160086), the Private Sector
Competitiveness and Economic Diversification in Lesotho (P088544), Zanzibar Tourism Sector Action Plan (P165069),
Competitiveness for Tourism Development Project in Cabo Verde (P146666), Nigeria–Growth & Employment (P103499),
and the Cross-Border Tourism and Competitiveness Project in Benin (P149117).
Colourful mosque in Benin.
37
Defined in the previous section as: ensuring tourism takes full account of its current and future economic, social, and environmental impacts, addressing the needs of
visitors, the industry, the environment, and host communities.
38
For more information on IFC Edge, visit www.edgebuildings.com
20
Case Study on Cabo Verde
The Cabo Verde Competitiveness for Tourism Development Project (P146666) aimed to create the conditions necessary
to increase investment into and diversification of the tourism sector. Cabo Verde experienced tremendous tourism growth
over the past decade and a half with little sector guidance or intervention. With this project, the government aimed to put
greater emphasis on inclusive growth, as well as boost investment and FDI, which had declined since 2008.
At the commencement of the project, Cabo Verde’s tourism sector faced several challenges that threatened to impede
sustained inclusive growth in coming years. First, it was poorly diversified in terms of products, operators, and geography.
The country was primarily sold as a sun-and-sea destination, with only two of the nine inhabited islands claiming a
90 percent market share. Second, the large resorts on these two islands were owned by just one foreign-based company,
and accounted for nearly half of the guestrooms in the country. The result was a poor spread of tourism benefits and a
risky over-reliance upon one company. This model also lended itself to high levels of leakage.
The government of Cabo Verde stated its intention to diversify the sector through developing and improving
tourism products and services: the supply of tourism products beyond sun, sea, and sand (for example, to
historical and cultural attractions); the quality and supply of various types of accommodation; the geographical
concentration of tourism; and the corporate origins of tourism investment. It was expected that diversification in
these areas would increase tourism numbers and tourism investment, while spreading the benefits more inclusively
(for example, to local MSMEs, small accommodations, and poorer islands). The components of project activities identified
were focused on improving governance, increasing investment in the sector, and increasing inclusiveness of tourism by
strengthening the competitiveness of local MSMEs. Main project indicators focused on investment generated in the sector
and the increased number of bed-nights at beneficiary small accommodation establishments.
Drum band performing at Santa Maria on Sal, Cabo Verde.
21
3.4 High-quality Assets

High-quality assets are key attractors for visitors and investors to most destinations. Asset development includes diversifying
tourism product offerings, improving last-mile access, and upgrading tourism-related infrastructure, which often requires
cross-Global Practice (GP) collaboration.
Some cultural-site and product-specific work is developed in collaboration with Social, Urban, Rural, and Resilience GP.
Park and protected area tourism is often developed in collaboration with the Environment and Natural Resources GP.
There are three common interventions to achieve high-quality assets:
• Product development. Tourism products include the sites, services, and resources that attract tourists to the destination.
Product development involves enhancing the quality tourism experiences by creating tourism routes, new attractions,
and improving interpretation.
• Site development. Attraction sites need to be developed to keep the visitors safe and ensure the sustainability of the
site. Interventions include upgraded infrastructure to provide easy access, the development of onsite facilities, site
rehabilitation, and interpretation.
• Site management. Tourism brings much-needed attention and revenue to natural and cultural sites, but increased
visitation can place pressure on tourism assets. Sites need ongoing investment and management to mitigate damage
and support preservation, while also generating needed revenue from ticket sales. Site management includes ticketing
systems, visitor service plans, restoration and maintenance plans, and visitor impact assessments.
An example of developing high-quality assets is the Ethiopia Sustainable Tourism Development Project (P098132),
which included improving infrastructure, developing marketing strategies, and rehabilitating heritage sites.
These interventions were aimed at increasing tourist visitation, boosting foreign exchange earnings, and increasing jobs.
The project is featured on the following page.
Hot air balloons flying over the ancient city of Bagan, Myanmar.
22
Case Study on Ethiopia
The Ethiopia Sustainable Tourism Development Project (P098132) aimed to contribute to the enhancement of the quality
and variety of tourism products and services in targeted destinations, in order to increase the volume of tourism, foreign
exchange earnings, and jobs. Ethiopia had strong potential as a tourism destination, offering a rich array of cultural,
historic and natural sites that set it apart from its neighbors.
However, Ethiopia faced a number of challenges in attempting to capture a larger share of the tourism market in
the region and transform cultural and natural assets into economic value. The world heritage sites, as well as many
others of equal (though unrecognized) significance and beauty had been neglected. There had been little public
investment in site maintenance, interpretation for visitors, and access infrastructure. Investments in infrastructure
(e.g. airports, roads, telecommunications, water supply, and sanitation), hotels, and human resources remained insufficient
to meet the growing sector’s needs. Visitors generally expected high-quality services and well-preserved, well-presented sites.
This fundamental mismatch was the core challenge. Both in the administration and private sector, there was a growing
recognition of this problem and broad commitment to addressing it. The project attempted to assist Ethiopia in overcoming
the key obstacles to tourism development. There were four components to the project, the first component being destination
development, particularly the rehabilitation and enhancement of basic infrastructure in key historic sites, visitor services
and tourism product development. The second was about market development, utilizing a matching grant scheme and
providing support to communities. The third component was about the institutional development and capacity building.
The implementation of the project was designed to yield the following key outcomes, particularly in key destinations:
(i) an annual increase of international visitors; (ii) increased average spending by visitors; and (iii) an increased number
of direct and indirect tourism-related jobs.
Church of Saint George in the shape of a cross in Lalibela, Ethiopia.
23
A man stacks hay in FYROM (Macedonia). Photo: © World Bank
3.5 Wide Benefit Distribution

Inclusion39 is the third long-term outcome of FCI’s ToC. This pathway is focused on the inclusion of marginalized groups
in the tourism supply chain through targeted interventions, skills development, and stakeholder engagement.
Empowering individuals and communities with new training and skillsets may enable them to take new jobs, advance
their careers or improve their business ventures. Tourism skills have also been shown to lead to increased customer
satisfaction, higher visitor numbers, higher sales, better perception of the destination’s brand, and/or better policy planning
and destination management, which are necessary for the success of that tourism venture.40
The tourism team recommends three interventions for inclusive value chains:
• Inclusion programs. Tourism must be designed inclusively to maximize its development potential. Inclusion means
considering women, vulnerable groups, rural populations and those who are living in poverty. Programs for inclusion
can include specific awareness training, grants or loans to less-fortunate beneficiaries.
• Skills development. Skills are the capacities needed to be successful in any line of work. Skills development can include
informal training, awareness programs, and community management, which contrasts with formally accredited skills
provided by capacity building on page 18.
• Stakeholder engagement. Tourism has many stakeholders (for a full list see page 9). Engaging these stakeholders help
to ensure that interventions have local ownership, benefits of tourism are broadly distributed, and tourism grows
sustainability. Stakeholder engagement includes meetings, town halls and other forms of community outreach.
The skills development pathways are reflected in the Integrated Growth Poles Project in Madagascar (P083351), the SME
Capacity Building and Economic Governance Project in Cabo Verde (P107456), the Governance & Competitiveness TA
Project in Rwanda (P127105), and Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) Local and Regional Competitiveness
(P154263), which is highlighted on the following page.
39
Inclusion is defined as ensuring tourism development brings broad benefit across the population including women, youth, indigeno groups, and those marginalized
through geography, conflict, or climate-related events.
40
Cater, C., Garrod, B., & Low, T. (2015). The encyclopaedia of sustainable tourism. Australia: CABI.
24
Case Study on FYROM (Macedonia)
FYROM Local and Regional Competitiveness Project aimed to enhance the contribution of tourism to local economic development
and improve the capacity of the government and public entities to foster tourism growth and facilitate destination management.
FYROM had good tourism potential, but was starting from a relatively low base. The number of tourists in FYROM had been steadily
increasing, but there was little information on market profiles. The total number of tourists (foreign and domestic) in 2014 was
735,650 (25.5 percent increase from 2010).
The sector faced a series of challenges to fully realize its potential, including the following:
(i) Poor enabling environment: business environment (standards, licensing, ease of access to finance and knowledge,
etc.), air access;
(ii) Weak offer: positioning, visitor information, product development, site management, standards; and
(iii) Limited development/shared value: data collection, linkages, private sector engagement.
The components of the project focused on technical assistance, improving the enabling environment, destination management;
investment in tourism-related infrastructure, and linkages at destinations. The project indicators were the number of
trained public sector officials, increase in overnight tourists, private businesses who accessed grants, and share of local
residents who were satisfied with tourism development.
Winery in FYROM. Photo: © World Bank
25
4. Tourism Indicators
Identify
01 02 03 04
Determine
challenges Design
long-term Develop
assumptions
outcomes
Monitoring progress towards outcomes is a key component (and the final step) of ToC. The following indicators represent
a preliminary set and were gleaned from existing World Bank and IFC projects. Indicators will be further developed by the
FCI Global Tourism Team in a forthcoming publication.
Open business environment

The state of the business environment in a destination is usually measured by the time and cost to start, operate and
close a business.
Suggested indicators:
Days needed Cost to Number of licenses Number of Number of

to start start needed to start investment restrictions new firms
a business a business a business removed registered
High-firm performance
High-firm performance is usually measured by increases in people, products, and processes. In a tourism context this
includes jobs, market share, sales and contracts. Investment would also be an indicator, but it is rarely measured, due to
difficulties in attribution.
Number of firms with Number of firms Number of new Firms with improved
online presence certified contracts signed management
qualifications
26
Clear policy direction

Clear policy direction can be measured by outputs (plans, policies, etc.), implementation (sites upgraded and airports
improved), and outcomes (visitor arrivals, satisfaction, and spending).
Increased budget Number of plans, Number of Number of

for tourism policies and coordination and PPD sites upgraded
institutions new laws adopted processes held
Revenue from Number of Overall tourist Number of

tourism sites arrivals satisfaction sites with
management plans
Wide-reaching benefits
Inclusiveness can be measured through the number of people or workers trained, or hours of training performed. The
World Bank paper Women and Tourism: Designing for Inclusion41 suggests a number of other indicators for bridging
the gender gap, which can be integrated into tourism projects and go beyond mainstreaming and disaggregation of
conventional indicator data.
Resident Percentage of Resident access Percentage of female

satisfaction goods/services to services professional and
produced locally technical employees
Percentage of Percentage of women

women/rural/urban in leadership positions
business owners in companies and
tourism institutions
41
Twining-Ward, L. and Zhou, V. (2017).Women and Tourism: Designing for Inclusion. Washington, DC: World Bank Group.
Retrieved from https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/28535
27
Further Considerations for Monitoring and Evaluation
Matching indicators
It is important that indicators measure progress towards the project development objective (PDO). Though this may seem
obvious, a surprising number of past projects were found to have mismatched PDOs and indicators. For example, one
project had an objective of facilitating "increased private sector investment". However, private-sector investment was not
measured by any of the indicators deployed. Another project’s PDO was to "improve the competitiveness of enterprises"
and the indicator was an increase in international tourist arrivals and sector employment. These misfires suggest the need
for further guidance on what works, and why, for tourism PDOs and PDO indicators.
Attribution
Attribution is critical to the robustness of an indicator framework. As evident in the above examples, it can be difficult
to find direct attribution and causality between the project activities and the observed results. For example, "Number of
hospitality workers in the tourism value chain" would be very difficult to attribute to the activities of the project, and
would also be extremely difficult to measure a baseline or change with any certainty. It is important to understand and
be transparent about attribution regarding M&E.
Baseline data and timelines

Without baseline data, it is very difficult to establish if change has occurred. Lack of baseline data is common,
especially in instances where the government has no means for measuring that data. For one project, there was no
baseline on market share for the PDO indicator: "Number of tourism arrivals from non-traditional markets".
In another example, there is no baseline data for the PDO indicator: "Diversify the points of destination of foreign
investment". Baselines must be established at the outset of the project to accurately measure development impacts.
Implementation plan matches budget

Some indicators require rigorous exit surveys, satellite accounting, or formalized methods to gather information, which
are not built into the project budget. Another project had an Intermediate Outcome indicator: "Share of local residents
that are satisfied with tourism development in the destinations". The indicator can be used, but will involve funding a
resident survey. Align your project budget with your indicators to allocate the necessary funding for monitoring.
Volume versus value

There is an over-reliance on arrivals as an indicator in tourism projects. This is problematic for a few reasons.
First, it encourages volume growth, which may not be what the destination needs (depending on the stage of development).
Second, arrival numbers can be impacted by many external factors, such as currency fluctuations and political unrest,
so it has poor attribution qualities. Third, arrivals are best estimated at a national level and are difficult to apply
to regional or municipal projects without systems in place. Tourist expenditure data per tourist (yield), or change in
length of stay, gives more indication of the change in value of the sector, and attribution needs to be clearly delineated.
If volume needs to be used, it is sensible to focus on a particular market segment, e.g. business or leisure travelers, rather
than all arrivals. It is critical to be nuanced when selecting indicator segments to increase attribution.
28
Closing Note
ToC can be a TTL’s best friend. It can reduce risks, enhance project design, and improve results. Rather than just solving
problems, the TTL can ensure the project addresses to the root causes of the problems. ToC has been used here to
help refine FCI Tourism’s programmatic framework. It is hoped that, together with other FCI tourism resources and
toolkits, this explanation of FCI’s tourism ToC will be an invaluable guideline for project teams. No ToC is permanent.
Change continues, assumptions evolve, and solutions and programs improve over time. This is the start, rather than the
end, of a dialogue about the evidence case for tourism’s development impact.
Next steps will include: (i) improving the understanding of effective interventions in sustainability and inclusion; (ii)
broadening the project review; and (iii) preparing a more detailed guidance note on indicators and M&E for tourism
projects.
Comments, feedback and further collaboration are welcome at [email protected]
Hiking in the mountains, Nepal.
29
FCI TOURISM THEORY OF CHANGE 2018

DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES RECOMMENDED FCI TOURISM INTERVENTIONS INTERMEDIATE OUTCOMES LONG-TERM OUTCOMES
RESTRICTIVE MACRO ENVIRONMENT

Burdensome licensing, regulatory and legal framework Regulatory Reform Investment Visa Facilitation
Outdated and contradictory laws Licensing and Promotion Visa streamlining
Poor tourism investment environment regulation reform Investment E-Visa OPEN BUSINESS
Ineffective incentives for tourism
Tax reform Incentives Visa-on-arrival ENVIRONMENT
Visa/access cost and burden
Poor PPD Market invest. opps Workers/investors
Security issues One-stop-shops visas
Infrastructure constraints
COMPETITIVE
WEAK PRIVATE SECTOR Financial Capacity Building Supply Chains
Mechanisms Entrepreneurship Firm standards
DESTINATIONS
Difficulty in access to finance
Lack of access to land Grants and incentives support Strengthening of HIGH-
Poor marketing and market access Risk-sharing facilities Enterprise-skills dev. local supply chains PERFORMING
Poor working conditions Feasibility studies Marketing Procurement FIRMS
Weak SME support and incentives and appraisals and branding processes
Low capacity and legal knowhow Management skills
POOR INSTITUTIONAL VISION

Poor prioritization and vision Tourism Policy Tourism Quality Marketing
Lack of integrated destination planning and Planning Governance Standards and Research
Lack of data-on-demand Tourism policies PPD Health & safety Market research
institutional CLEAR POLICY
Limited public-sector capacity National and sanitation Tourism
destination
coordination
statistics
DIRECTION
Poor quality service Accommodation/
tourism planning Policy
Outdated product standards Marketing and
coordination
Lack of public-sector investment Infrastructure branding
Poor marketing and promotion
UNDERPERFORMING ASSETS SUSTAINABLE

Product Site Site
Poor inter-agency coordination
Development Management Development DESTINATIONS
Poor visitor management
Limited rent capture Nature-based tourism Visitor and site PPPs HIGH-QUALITY
management
Lack of environmental and heritage regulations Culture and heritage Concessions ASSETS
Poor heritage and culture management Cruise tourism Site infrastructure Pricing structures
Poor natural assets management Business tourism Site upgrading
Infrastructure constraints
NARROW BENEFIT DISTRIBUTION

Low female inclusion
Inclusive Programs Skills Stakeholder
Lack of community involvement
Workplace practices Development Engagement
and consultation mechanisms
Weak supply chain Value-chain Workforce training Citizen WIDE BENEFIT
Low youth involvement linkages Tourism awareness engagement DISTRIBUTION
Low community involvement INCLUSIVE
Community training Private-sector
High geographic concern
partnerships DESTINATIONS
Low tourism awareness
High degree of informality
Additional Readings
SECTION 1: TOURISM AS A DEVELOPMENT TOOL Tourism employment in rural areas:

Snyman, S. (2014). The impact of ecotourism employment on
Sustainable tourism development: rural household incomes and social welfare in six southern African
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and World countries. Tourism and Hospitality Research, 14(1-2), 37-52.
Tourism Organization (UNWTO). (2005). Making tourism more Using 385 staff interviews and 1,400 community interviews, this
sustainable–A guide for policy makers. Retrieved from http://www. study analyzes the impact of ecotourism employment on rural
unep.fr/shared/publications/pdf/DTIx0592xPA-TourismPolicyEN.pdf household incomes and overall social welfare in six southern African
countries (Botswana, Malawi, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia,
This guide was the first joint effort between UNEP and UNWTO to
and Zimbabwe). Results show rural households rely heavily on
address tourism sustainability. It discusses effective approaches for
ecotourism. The article highlights the role of ecotourism in local
the development of strategies and policies for sustainable tourism socioeconomic development in remote and rural areas, as well as
and tools to ensure the policies work on the ground. the importance of formal education, livelihood diversification, and
other formal employment in these countries.
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). (2013). Sustainable tourism
for development guidebook. First edition: 2013. Retrieved from Tourism in Small Island Developing States (SIDS):
http://www.e-unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.18111/9789284415496
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). (2014). Tourism in small
This document provides guidance on implementing sustainable island developing states (SIDS). Building a more sustainable future
tourism interventions. It begins with a guidance note on the basics for the people of islands. Retrieved from http://cf.cdn.unwto.org/
sites/all/files/docpdf/tourisminsids.pdf
of sustainable tourism. It is followed by a methodology for assessing
the approach to sustainable tourism through questions to identify This short document provides insight into tourism in SIDS.
needs and gaps. The closing section examines the relationship It includes key data on tourism growth, international tourism
between tourism and development. arrivals and receipts, employment, tourism exports, development,
and challenges and opportunities.
World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) and Netherlands
Development Organization (SNV). (2010). Manual on tourism and Community livelihoods:
poverty alleviation–Practical steps for destinations. Retrieved from Ahebwa, W. M., & Van der Duim, R. (2013). Conservation, livelihoods,
http://www.e-unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.18111/9789284413430 and tourism: A case study of the Buhoma-Mukono community-
based tourism project in Uganda. Journal of Park and Recreation
Written for organizations and individuals working in tourism Administration, 31(3), 96-114.
destinations, this manual provides the tools to better support
Using extensive documentary review, stakeholder interviews, focus
poverty alleviation and manage tourism to deliver more benefits to
group discussions, and informal interviews, this study analyzes the
disadvantaged communities. It is divided into three parts corresponding implications of Uganda’s Bwindi Impenetrable National Park’s
to the project cycle: Analysis/Planning, Action, and Assessment. (BINP) community-based tourism venture on local livelihoods.
Findings suggest that BINP arrangements with local communities
Tourism and pro-poor development: have stimulated employment, generated income, provided local
Hill, T., Nel, E., & Trotter, D. (2006). Small-scale, nature-based social services, and funded other development projects.
tourism as a pro-poor development intervention: Two examples
Tourism contribution to protected areas:
in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Singapore Journal of Tropical
Geography, 27(2), 163-175. Thomas, C., & Koontz, L. (2017). 2016 national park visitor
spending effects. Economic contributions to local communities,
This article analyzes two small-scale tourism initiatives in the states and the nation. Fort Collins, Colorado: National Park Service.
KwaZulu-Natal province in South Africa. Results indicate that Retrieved from https://www.nps.gov/nature/customcf/NPS_Data_
there have been some benefits to date that laid the foundation for Visualization/docs/2016_VSE.pdf
longer-term development in other areas. The authors note some This report discusses the economic contribution of the U.S. National
drawbacks in improving the local quality of life and the need Park Service to local communities, states, and the country. It presents
to incorporate broader economic, political, social, cultural, and an overview of economic impact analyses and a description of
environmental considerations in tourism planning. spending estimates in 2016 and their economic effects.
31
Tourism and biodiversity conservation: Mackinnon, A., Amott, N., & McGarvey, C. (2006). Mapping a
Nielsen, H., & Spenceley, A. (2010). The success of tourism in change: Using a theory of change to guide planning and evaluation.
Rwanda–Gorillas and more. Retrieved from http://siteresources. New York, N.Y.: Grantcraft, Foundation Center. Retrieved from
http://www.grantcraft.org/assets/content/resources/theory_change.pdf
worldbank.org/AFRICAEXT/Resources/258643-1271798012256/
Tourism_Rwanda.pdf This guide is tailored to offer a brief but powerful first-take on
Theory of Change, targeted to develop grant proposals. It explains
This paper reviews the success of gorilla tourism in Rwanda by
the basics of ToC, answering common questions about its definition,
analyzing its background and the factors contributing to its positive
origins, and why is it helpful. It also compares it to Logic Models
development. It describes the benefits from gorilla tourism for
and offers information and tips from experts making use of it.
communities and wildlife conservation, as well as constraints and
lessons learned. It also provides an overview of the bigger picture Rogers, P. (2014). Theory of change, methodological briefs: Impact
of tourism in Rwanda. evaluation. Florence, Italy: UNICEF Office of Research. Retrieved
from http://www.entwicklung.at/fileadmin/user_upload/Dokumente/
Tourism and world heritage sites: Evaluierung/Theory_of_Change/UNICEF_Theory_of_change.pdf
Ruiz Lanuza, A., & Pulido Fernández, J.I. (2015). El impacto del This paper presents a brief description of Theory of Change, as
turismo en los Sitios Patrimonio de la Humanidad. Una revisión well as how to develop and use it as an impact-evaluation tool.
de las publicaciones científicas de la base de datos Scopus. Along with a discussion of challenges, it provides information
PASOS Revista de Turismo y Patrimonio Cultural, 13(5), 247-1264. on other sources of knowledge about ToC and examples of good
practices from United Nations projects.
This article analyzes the evidence available in international literature
on tourism research in UNESCO World Heritage Sites. It examines Stein, D., & Valters, C. (2012). Understanding theory of change in
178 contributions from both consolidated and emerging destinations, international development. London, U.K.: The Justice and Security
and identifies fields of knowledge to be addressed in future research. Research Programme, London School of Economics. Retrieved from
http://www.theoryofchange.org/wp-content/uploads/toco_library/
pdf/UNDERSTANDINGTHEORYOFChangeSteinValtersPN.pdf
Sustainable tourism monitoring:
Becken, S., & Miller, G. (2016). Global sustainable tourism This review discusses the existing debate around Theory of Change
dashboard–Technical report 2016. Retrieved from https://www. approaches, purposes, and terminology. It is based on a review of
griffith.edu.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0033/18879/Dashboard- more than 45 documents and papers, as well as a workshop during
Background-report.pdf which findings were presented and discussed.
This dashboard presents a set of top-level indicators which, combined Taplin, D., & Clark, H. (2012). Theory of change basics: A primer on
theory of change. New York, N.Y.: ActKnowledge. Retrieved from
with traditional economic indicators, provide a more holistic view
http://www.theoryofchange.org/wp-content/uploads/toco_library/
of contributions from the tourism industry. It reviews existing
pdf/ToCBasics.pdf
monitoring systems and explains the rationale for each indicator,
data sources, and methodological approach. Using ActKnowledge’s methodology, this explanatory manual is a
first point of contact to Theory of Change terminology and process
SECTION II: THEORY OF CHANGE AND OTHER PLANNING of construction.
AND EVALUATION MODELS
Vogel, I. (2012). Review of the use of “Theory of Change” in
Theory of Change: Basic terminology, approaches, and applications international development. London, U.K.: DFID. Retrieved from https://
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/57a08a5ded915d3cfd00071a/
James, C. (2011). Theory of Change Review: A report commissioned DFID_ToC_Review_VogelV7.pdf
by Comic Relief. London, U.K.: Comic Relief. Retrieved from
http://www.theoryofchange.org/wp-content/uploads/toco_library/ This document presents a comprehensive review of the use of Theory
pdf/James_ToC.pdf of Change in international development. It explains core concepts,
disparities in its understanding, and comparisons with the Logical
This review combines analysis of different sources on Theory of Framework Approach. It also looks at the important role of assumptions
Change, including interviews with expert practitioners and developers. in ToC, as well as how to represent them and how to evaluate the
It looks at the different approaches and definitions that exist around quality of a Theory of Change. The review discusses the different
the topic, its use by organizations and how they have benefited, as uses of ToC according to objectives (monitoring vs. development).
well as several key components of an effective ToC. Finally, points are illustrated with project and program case studies.
32
Theory of Change: Development guidelines and examples This short manual explains several key areas and steps required
Bours, D., McGinn, C., & Pringle, P. (2014). Guidance note 3: for facilitators involved in the process of developing a Theory of
The Theory of Change approach to climate change adaptation Change under the ActKnowledge approach.
programming. Oxford, U.K.: SEA Change CoP, Phnom Penh,
Van Es, M., Vogel, I., & Guijt, I. (2015). Theory of change thinking
and UKCIP. Retrieved from http://www.ukcip.org.uk/wp-content/
PDFs/MandE-Guidance-Note3.pdf in practice: A stepwise approach. The Hague, The Netherlands:
HIVO. Retrieved from http://www.theoryofchange.nl/sites/default/
In this guidance note, the authors describe Theory of Change and
files/resource/hivos_toc_guidelines_final_nov_2015.pdf
compare it to traditional Logical Framework Approaches, including
how they can be reinforced if used together. It provides a step-by- Hivos’ Theory of Change Learning Group has developed guidelines
step process to developing a Theory of Change and how to avoid on its approach to Theory of Change. It is presented in three parts:
common mistakes. Finally, it presents a real-world example of Theory a terminology review, a complete methodology to developing a
of Change being used in a climate change adaptation program. ToC at any level, and a review of useful tools and materials for
Kail, A., & Lumley, T. (2012). Theory of change: The beginning developing a ToC, following the stepwise approach.
of making a difference. London, U.K.: New Philanthropy Capital.
Retrieved from http://www.thinknpc.org/publications/theory-of- Other planning and evaluation tools:
change/theory-of-change-7/?post-parent=4957
Ambrose, K. (2014). Outcome mapping practitioner guide.
This document presents a brief guide, aimed mostly at charities, Retrieved from https://www.outcomemapping.ca/outcome-mapping-
to developing a Theory of Change for strategic planning and evaluation. practitioner-guide
Milder, J. C., & Newsom, D. (2015). SAN/Rainforest Alliance impacts This Practitioners Guide builds on the 2001 Outcome Mapping
report: Evaluating the effects of the SAN/Rainforest Alliance certification
manual and includes useful tips and tricks based on practical
system on farms, people, and the environment. New York, N.Y. and
experience. As a reference guide for people who are using the
Mexico D.F., Mexico: Rainforest Alliance and Sustainable Rainforest
tool, it provides real-life examples of Outcome Mapping (OM).
Alliance. Retrieved from http://www.rainforest-alliance.org/sites/
default/files/2016-08/SAN_RA_Impacts_Report.pdf#page=109 As an ongoing collaboration of OM practitioners, it is open to
user contributions and content.
This is a report from the Sustainable Rainforest Alliance and Rainforest
Alliance on the impact evaluation of its Crop Certification Program Clark, H., & Anderson, A. (2004). Theories of change and logic
from 2010 to 2014. Of interest is the section on the program’s models: Telling them apart [PowerPoint slides]. Retrieved from
Theory of Change, here considered a logical framework with the https://www.theoryofchange.org/wp-content/uploads/toco_library/
purpose of clarifying the priority outcomes and impacts and which pdf/TOCs_and_Logic_Models_forAEA.pdf
pathways to change were used.
This deck of slides shows the major differences between Theory
Taplin, D., Clark, H., Collins, E., & Colby, D. (2013). Theory of
of Change and logic models.
change technical papers: A series of papers to support development
of theories of change based on practice in the field. New York, Dyer, K. (2012). Theory of change, outcome mapping and AcT’s
N.Y.: ActKnowledge. Retrieved from http://www.theoryofchange. logical framework. Retrieved from http://www.accountability.or.tz/
org/wp-content/uploads/toco_library/pdf/ToC-Tech-Papers.pdf
wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Theory-of-Change.pdf
This manual explains ActKnowledge’s methodology to Theory of
This document presents the lessons learned from the implementation
Change development on a deeper level, focusing on both terminology
and the rationale behind components and applications. Its glossary of the AcT Programme, designed to increase government
of terms can be very useful for newcomers. responsiveness and accountability through a strengthened civil society.
The program originally planned to use Outcome Mapping to deepen
Taplin, D., & Rasic, M. (2012). Facilitator’s source book:
its understanding of how to achieve transformational change. As years
Source book for facilitators leading theory of change development
passed and the project went into implementation, the team started
sessions. New York, N.Y.: ActKnowledge. Retrieved from http://
www.theoryofchange.org/wp-content/uploads/toco_library/pdf/ to make the Theory of Change explicit, while also using Outcome
ToCFacilitatorSourcebook.pdf Mapping, and integrating it with the Logical Framework Approach.
33
Earl, S., Carden, F., & Smutylo, T. (2001). Outcome mapping: World Bank. (2004). Monitoring & evaluation: Some tools, methods
Building learning and reflection into development programs. Ottawa, & approaches. Washington, DC: World Bank. Retrieved from http://
Canada: International Development Research Centre. Retrieved from lnweb90.worldbank.org/oed/oeddoclib.nsf/b57456d58aba40e585
https://www.outcomemapping.ca/download/OM_English_final.pdf 256ad400736404/a5efbb5d776b67d285256b1e0079c9a3/$FILE/
This manual explains in great detail the main elements of Outcome MandE_tools_methods_approaches.pdf
Mapping, including the theory underpinning it, concepts and This book discusses sample monitoring and evaluation tools,
definitions, and how to conduct a workshop to develop an Outcome and their methods, approaches, advantages, and disadvantages.
Mapping for a project or program. It also looks at the time, skills, and costs required to make use
Green, D. (2012). Theories of change=Logframes on steroids? of a variety of methods. These include performance indicators,
A discussion with DFID [Blog post]. Retrieved from Logical Framework Approaches, theory-based evaluation, formal
https://oxfamblogs.org/fp2p/theories-of-change-logframes-on- surveys, rapid appraisal methods, participatory methods, public
steroids-a-discussion-with-dfid/ expenditure tracking surveys, cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness
analysis, and impact evaluation.
This article explores the author’s vision of Theory of Change following
a seminar on the topic. It presents some of the benefits and challenges Roberts, D. & Khattri, N. (2012). Designing a results framework for
of using ToC, and pays special attention to the problems emerging achieving results: A how-to guide. Washington, DC: World Bank.
from its suboptimal use as an evaluation and planning tool. Retrieved from https://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTEVACAPDEV/
Vaessen, J. (2016, October 18). What is (good) program theory in Resources/designing_results_framework.pdf
international development? [Blog post]. Retrieved from https://ieg. This publication is on how to develop a Results Framework following
worldbankgroup.org/blog/what-good-program-theory-international- guidelines from the World Bank’s Independent Evaluation Group.
development It explains how to use a Results Framework, its requirements, and
This article examines the different understandings of program potential challenges. It also includes examples of Results Frameworks
theory. Specifically, it aims to explain differences in terminology, at the project, country, and organization levels.
sources of theory, and how a dearth of understanding contributes
to a general lack of consensus. SECTION III: TRADE & COMPETITIVENESS PATHWAYS
FOR TOURISM DEVELOPMENT IN:
Weiss, C. H. (1995). Nothing as practical as good theory: Exploring
theory-based evaluation for comprehensive community initiatives Improving the business enabling environment:
for children and families. In J. Connel, A. Kubisch, L. Schorr, &
Cárdenas-García, P. J.; Sánchez-Rivero, M.; & Pulido-Fernández,
C. Weiss (Eds.), New approaches to evaluating community initiatives:
J. I. (2015). Does tourism growth influence economic development?
Concepts, methods and contexts. New York: Aspen Institute.
Journal of Travel Research, 54(2), 206-221.
This book chapter proposes the use of a different mode of evaluation
The aim of this study is to determine whether economic growth
based on theory. It sheds light on the origins of theory-based
is experienced as a result of expansion in tourism activity.
evaluation, focusing on the importance of the assumptions that
The results show that more developed countries tend to gain more
underlie social programs and initiatives. It details the assumptions and
theories that traditional approaches are based on, while discussing from tourism than less developed countries do.
the advantages of using a theory-based approach, as opposed to Gatsinzi, J., & Donaldson, R. (2010). Investment challenges in the
standard evaluation methods. hotel industry in Kigali, Rwanda: Hotel managers’ perspectives.
Wigodzky, V., & Farmelo, M. (2014). Developing a useful strategic Development Southern Africa, 27(2), 225-240.
plan: Practical advice before starting the process. Retrieved from The purpose of this paper is to investigate managers’ perception of
http://effectiveorgs.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2015/04/ challenges associated with investment in Rwanda’s hotel industry.
DevelopingUsefulStrategicPlanFeb2015.pdf
Results suggest that increased investment in the hotel sector could lead
This brief piece contains key elements of strategic plans (mission, to increased job opportunities, government revenue, infrastructural
added value of the organization, and expected outcomes), as well development, forward and backward linkages, transfer of technology,
as tips and a step-by-step guide to the strategic planning process. increased competition, and improved quality of services.
34
Narayan, P. K.; Narayan, S.; Prasad, A.; & Prasad, B. C. (2010). sector (manufacturing, agriculture and fisheries, mining, trade,
Tourism and economic growth: A panel data analysis for Pacific hotels, transport, and utilities) then capital accumulation lowers.
Island countries. Tourism Economics, 16(1), 169-183.
Croes, R. (2012). Assessing tourism development from Sen’s capability
Results of this study find tourism exports increase GDP by 0.72 approach. Journal of Travel Research, 51(5), 542-554.
percent in the long run, and by 0.24 percent in the short run in Fiji,
Papua New Guinea, the Solomon Islands, and Tonga. However, This study developed a model to investigate the relationship between
the authors argued that for tourism to realize its full potential, these tourism development and human development, focusing on two
Pacific island countries must overcome several constraints, such countries, namely Nicaragua and Costa Rica. In the case of Nicaragua,
as political instability, natural disaster management, and crime, results suggest that, as tourism receipts increase, so do education,
amongst the few cited. health, and food access for local people. These, in turn, lead to better
human development performance. The other aspect of this study
Turco, D. M.; Swart, K.; Bob, U.; & Moodley, V. (2003).
show how benefits of tourism are distributed among local people.
Socio-economic Impacts of Sport Tourism in the Durban Unicity,
This would eventually determine access to education, health,
South Africa. Journal of Sport Tourism, 8(4), 223-239.
and other human development services.
A case study of sports tourism initiatives reveals some of the
challenges of conducting socioeconomic impact research in a Capacity building in firms to grow tourism:
transforming South Africa. Results of this study suggest that, in
Butler, G. (2016). Fostering community empowerment and capacity
order for Durban to optimize its returns from sports tourism,
building through tourism: Perspectives from Dullstroom, South
the city must continue to attract investments in sports tourism
Africa. Journal of Tourism and Cultural Change, 15(3), 199-212.
businesses, create strategic partnerships with key stakeholders,
and effectively brand and promote specific sports activities, This study investigates the social benefits from tourism development
preferably in distinct local areas, to promote tourist inflow. in the popular destination of Dullstroom, in Mpumalanga, South
Africa. Its findings show that local community members received
Wanhill, S. (2012). 19: Role of government incentives. In W. F.
Theobald (Ed.), Global tourism (third edition), (pp. 367-390). positive impacts beyond economic factors, including empowerment
Burlington, MA: Elsevier. through capacity building, new positions with higher levels of
responsibility, and opportunities to pursue formal qualifications.
This chapter discusses the roles of various types of tourism incentives,
particularly financial incentives, reduction in capital costs, reduction The majority of employees in Dullstroom were non-white females
in operating costs, and investment security. The authors highlight that had started with basic qualifications or none at all, who reported
the importance of governments deciding how to implement these feeling empowered economically, socially and psychologically, by
incentives: through automatic entitlements or discretionary awards. the acquisition of new skills and qualifications.
Congressional/ministerial guidelines should play a role in how
Kalbaska, N.; Lee, H. A.; Cantoni, L.; & Law, R. (2013). U.K. travel
incentives are awarded. Ongoing cost-benefit analysis is important
agents’ evaluation of eLearning courses offered by destinations:
when making incentive decisions.
An exploratory study. Journal of Hospitality, Leisure, Sport &
Attracting investment in tourism to create jobs: Tourism Education, 12(1), 7-14.
Chao, C., Hazari, B. R., Laffargue, J. P., Sgro, P. M., Laffargue, Based on a survey of 304 U.K.-based travel agents, this study
J., & Yu, E. S. H. (2005). Tourism, jobs, capital accumulation and investigates whether e-learning uptake is influenced by age, sex, type
the economy: A dynamic analysis. Nota di Lavoro, Fondazione of agency, work experience, and educational level. The results revealed
Eni Enrico Mattei, No. 136. that age and the type of agency have an affect on whether or not an
This paper examines the effects of tourism on labor employment, agent takes an e-learning course from a Destination Management
capital accumulation, and resident welfare for a small, open economy Organization (DMO). However, previous work experience, gender,
with unemployment. The evidence from this study suggests that, and education level do not influence this decision. DMOs need
as tourism grows, so does employment. However, it also finds to work closely with travel agents to assess how factors might
that if the non-traded tourism sector (public services, construction increase the benefits of e-learning or other educational activities
finance, and real estate) is labor-intensive relative to the traded for this group.
35
Improving destination/sustainable management: Tourism may be the most viable path to development in the case of
Bennett, N., Lemelin, R. H., Koster, R., & Budke, I. (2012). A capital loss of agricultural jobs in rural areas, particularly through agri-
assets framework for appraising and building capacity for tourism tourism, which over the long run presents an innovative way to
development in aboriginal protected area gateway communities. generate local employment and encourage young people to remain
Tourism Management, 33(4), 752-766. in their region of origin.
This paper develops a framework for appraising and building Mazimhaka, J. (2007). Diversifying Rwanda’s tourism industry: A role
community capacity for tourism development in gateway communities for domestic tourism. Development Southern Africa, 24(3), 491-504.
to aboriginal protected areas. It analyzed qualitative results from
This paper discusses the role of domestic tourism in Rwanda’s
four research projects centered on seven capital assets (natural,
tourism economy and concludes that there are economic, social,
physical and built, financial, political and institutional, social,
cultural, and human). The resulting holistic framework aims to and political benefits in pursuing the growth of domestic tourism.
ensure benefits across various parts of a community’s development Indeed, domestic tourism in Africa has been neglected in African
and protect the environment. tourism scholarship and tourism industry development in favor of
international tourism. This research argues that domestic tourism
Dredge, D. (2006). Policy networks and the local organisation of must be recognized for its potential contributions to sustaining the
tourism. Tourism Management, 27(2), 269-280. future growth of tourism in Africa.
Using a case study of Lake Macquarie in New South Wales, Australia,
Panyik, E.; Costa, C.; & Rátz, T. (2011). Implementing integrated
this paper discusses the role of networks between local government
rural tourism: An event-based approach. Tourism Management,
and industry in fostering or inhibiting public-private sector partnership
32(6), 1352-1363.
building. Fostering such an environment requires careful management
between state and societal dominance, and explicit management of This article analyzes the event-based approach to integrated rural
the relationship between the active tourism network and the wider tourism based on a national-level, rural-tourism promotion event
community. This is important for avoiding situations where the in Hungary. It reports on the effects of the failure to integrate local
wider, passive community undermines the legitimacy of the local concerns into the event planning and organization process. It also
tourism organizations. underscores the important role of the intermediary management
Koutra, C., & Edwards, J. (2012). Capacity building through in building trust relationships with rural service providers.
socially responsible tourism development–A Ghanaian case study. Moreover, it argues that the leading challenge of this approach
Journal of Travel Research, 51(6), 779-792. rests in the capacity of stakeholders to plan and implement a
marketing strategy cooperatively at the local level.
This paper highlights the importance of capacity building in socially
responsible tourism, which is defined as investment in social, human,
Upgrading products:
physical, and financial capital. Capacity building comes from the
interaction between individuals, businesses, networks, organizations, Tsai, H.; Song, H.; & Wong, K. F. (2009). Tourism and hotel
and policy institutions, at the national and external state development competitiveness research. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing,
institutional level. Furthermore, the paper stresses the need for 26(5-6), 522-546.
coordination between the decision-makers, and the right mechanisms
to be in place to facilitate them. The goal of this article is to review the published studies on
destination and hotel competitiveness, provide critiques,
Marques, H. (2006). Searching for complementarities between and point out future research. Some issues cited for future research
agriculture and tourism–The demarcated wine-producing regions
in investigating the competitiveness of tourism businesses include
of northern Portugal. Tourism Economics, 12(1), 147-160.
productivity concerns of hospitality firms involving issues of
This paper discusses the role of agritourism in deprived rural areas as efficient management, labor productivity (measurable), service
an instrument of regional development that builds on local cultural productivity (elusive measures), and capital productivity.
and natural advantages. Evidence suggests that tourism may help Other factors to consider for destinations to stay competitive include
to market unique local products, preserve architectural heritage, quality of tourist services and organizations and appropriately
and develop physical and human capital lacking in rural regions. integrating these related products and services.
36
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Tourism as a Development Tool 4

Tourism and Theory of Change 5

Principles of Theory of Change 6

Key ToC Components 8

FCI's Programmatic ToC 11

1. Long-term Outcomes and Assumptions 11

2. Challenges and Intermediate Outcomes 13

FCI Tourism Theory of Change 2018 30

Tourism as a Development Tool

FCI TOURISM THEORY OF CHANGE 2018

- ISABEL VOGEL, U.K. DEPARTMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (DFID)

Rationale for Using ToC at Each Stage

Project Design Project Evaluation Program Planning

Key ToC Components

Source: Adapted from ActKnowledge, 201217

1. Long-term outcomes (LTO) and assumptions

2. Challenges and intermediate outcomes

A daily market scene in Charminar, Hyderabad.

Maximizing Finance for Development (MFD): The Cascade

2. Challenges and Intermediate Outcomes

Intermediate Outcomes Challenges

1. Open business environment Burdensome licensing, regulatory, and

2. High-performing firms Difficulty in accessing finance

3. Clear policy direction Lack of clear direction

4. High-quality assets Poor interagency coordination

5. Inclusive tourism value chains Low female inclusion

3.1 Open Business Environment

Economies. Madrid, Spain. Retrieved from https://www.wttc.org/-/media/files/reports/policy%20research/visa_facilitation%20g20.pdf

Case Study on Peru

Peruvian women in Lamay, Peru. Photo © Dominic Chavez/World Bank

3.2 High-performing Firms

Figure 3: Business Enabling Environment Path of Change

Case Study on Ghana

Fishermen working on their boats in Ghana.

3.3 Clear Policy Direction

There are four recommended intervention categories for policy direction:

Colourful mosque in Benin.

Case Study on Cabo Verde

Drum band performing at Santa Maria on Sal, Cabo Verde.

3.4 High-quality Assets

There are three common interventions to achieve high-quality assets:

Case Study on Ethiopia

Church of Saint George in the shape of a cross in Lalibela, Ethiopia.

A man stacks hay in FYROM (Macedonia). Photo: © World Bank

3.5 Wide Benefit Distribution

Case Study on FYROM (Macedonia)

Winery in FYROM. Photo: © World Bank

Open business environment

Days needed Cost to Number of licenses Number of Number of

Clear policy direction

Increased budget Number of plans, Number of Number of

Revenue from Number of Overall tourist Number of

Resident Percentage of Resident access Percentage of female

Percentage of Percentage of women