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    Introduction To Travel Forecastinng - Modal Split

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    Beau Nor
    This document provides an introduction to mode choice models used in travel demand forecasting. It discusses that mode choice determines the percentage of trips made by automobile versus transit based on factors like income, availability of services, and travel time/cost comparisons between modes. It outlines three types of transit trip estimation procedures: direct generation of transit trips, use of trip end models, and trip interchange modal split models. It provides more details on trip end models and the trip interchange model approach, which considers level of service variables and relative travel attributes between modes. Finally, it introduces logit mode choice models that express mode choice as a probability distribution based on the relative utility of each transportation mode.

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    Introduction To Travel Forecastinng - Modal Split

    Uploaded by

    Beau Nor
    85 views29 pages
    This document provides an introduction to mode choice models used in travel demand forecasting. It discusses that mode choice determines the percentage of trips made by automobile versus transit based on factors like income, availability of services, and travel time/cost comparisons between modes. It outlines three types of transit trip estimation procedures: direct generation of transit trips, use of trip end models, and trip interchange modal split models. It provides more details on trip end models and the trip interchange model approach, which considers level of service variables and relative travel attributes between modes. Finally, it introduces logit mode choice models that express mode choice as a probability distribution based on the relative utility of each transportation mode.

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    Introduction to Travel Forecastinng_modal Split

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    This document provides an introduction to mode choice models used in travel demand forecasting. It discusses that mode choice determines the percentage of trips made by automobile versus transit based on factors like income, availability of services, and travel time/cost comparisons between modes. It outlines three types of transit trip estimation procedures: direct generation of transit trips, use of trip end models, and trip interchange modal split models. It provides more details on trip end models and the trip interchange model approach, which considers level of service variables and relative travel attributes between modes. Finally, it introduces logit mode choice models that express mode choice as a probability distribution based on the relative utility of each transportation mode.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    85 views29 pages

    Introduction To Travel Forecastinng - Modal Split

    Uploaded by

    Beau Nor
    This document provides an introduction to mode choice models used in travel demand forecasting. It discusses that mode choice determines the percentage of trips made by automobile versus transit based on factors like income, availability of services, and travel time/cost comparisons between modes. It outlines three types of transit trip estimation procedures: direct generation of transit trips, use of trip end models, and trip interchange modal split models. It provides more details on trip end models and the trip interchange model approach, which considers level of service variables and relative travel attributes between modes. Finally, it introduces logit mode choice models that express mode choice as a probability distribution based on the relative utility of each transportation mode.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Download as pdf or txt
    of 29

    INTRODUCTION TO TRAVEL

    DEMAND FORECASTING:
    MODAL SPLIT
    OMAR COSAIN
    FARHADIN EDZA
    AR-RAZUL ENDAILA
    MODE CHOICE

    TYPES OF MODE
    CHOICE MODELS LOGIT MODELS
    MODE
    Mode choice is that aspect of the demand analysis
    process that determines the number (or percentage) of
    trips between zones that are made by automobile and
    by transit. The selection of one mode or another is a
    complex process that depends on factors such as the

    CHOICE
    traveler’s income, the availability of transit service or
    auto ownership, and the relative advantages of each
    mode in terms of travel time, cost, comfort, conven-
    ience, and safety. Mode choice models attempt to
    replicate the relevant characteristics of the traveler, the
    transportation system, and the trip itself, such that a
    realistic estimate of the number of trips by each mode
    for each zonal pair is obtained. A discussion of the many
    mode choice models is beyond the scope of this
    chapter, and the interested student should refer to
    sources cited.
    TYPES OF 1 DIRECT GENERATION OF TRANSIT STRIPS

    TRANSIT
    ESTIMATING
    PROCEDURES 2 USE OF TRIP END MODELS

    TRIP INTERCHANGE MODAL SPLIT


    3 MODELS
    Direct Generation Models Transit
    TYPES OF trips can be generated directly, by

    TRANSIT
    estimating either total person trips or
    auto driver trips. Figure 12.8 on page

    ESTIMATING 614 is a graph that illustrates the


    relationship between transit trips per
    PROCEDURES day per 1000 population and persons
    per acre versus auto ownership. As
    density of population increases, it can
    be expected that transit riding will
    also increase for a given level of auto
    ownership.
    TYPES OF Trip End Models
    To determine the percentage of
    TRANSIT total person or auto trips that will

    ESTIMATING prior to the trip distribution phase


    use transit, estimates are made

    PROCEDURES based on land-use or


    socioeconomic characteristics of
    the zone.This method does
    notincorporate the quality of
    service.
    The procedure follows:

    Trip
    Generate total person trip productions
    1 and attractions by trip purpose.

    End
    2 Compute the urban travel factor

    Determine the percentage of these

    Models
    3 trips by transit using a mode choice
    curve.

    4 Apply auto occupancy factors.

    Distribute transit and auto trips


    5 separately.
    Trip Interchange Models
    TYPES OF In this method, system level-of-service

    TRANSIT
    variables are considered, including
    relative travel time, relative travel cost,

    ESTIMATING relative travel service. An example of


    economic status of the trip maker, and

    PROCEDURES QRS method which takes account of


    this procedure is illustrated using the

    service parameters in estimating mode


    choice. The QRS method is based on
    the following relationship
    In-vehicle time is time spent traveling in the vehicle, and excess time is time spent traveling but not in the vehicle, including
    waiting for the train or bus and walking to the station. The impedance value is determined for each zone pair and represents
    a measure of the expenditure required to make the trip by either auto or transit. The data required for estimating mode
    choice include (1) distance between zones by auto and transit, (2) transit fare, (3) out-of-pocket auto cost, (4) parking cost,
    (5) highway and transit speed, (6) exponent values, b, (7) median income, and ( excess time, which includes the time
    required to walk to a transit vehicle and time waiting or trans- ferring. Assume that the time worked per year is 120,000 min.
    An alternative approach used in

    lOGIT transportation demand analysis is to


    consider the rel- ative utility of each

    MODELS
    mode as a summation of each modal
    attribute. Then the choice of a mode is
    expressed as a probability distribution.
    For example, assume that the utility of
    each mode is
    THANK YOU!

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