Mock Exam 5
Mock Exam 5
Joan Fisher and Kim Weatherford are economists responsible for modeling security
returns for Quincy Portfolio Managers, which is located in the southwestern United
States. Fisher is the firm's chief economist and Weatherford is her assistant.
In addition to financial assets, Quincy Portfolio Managers also recommends the use of
commodities as a portfolio diversifier. Weatherford has been examining price indices
for silver in an attempt to determine whether silver returns are predictable. As an
initial step, she uses an autoregressive first-order regression model on daily price
data for silver over the past two years. The plot of the raw data and the results of the
regression are shown in Exhibit 1: Time Series of Silver Prices and Exhibit 2: Silver
Price Regression Results.
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.99
R-Square 0.98
Observations 522.00
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Durbin-Watson 2.39
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Fisher and Weatherford later discuss fluctuations in gold prices. Although the
arithmetic and geometric mean returns for gold were negative for much of the 1980s
and 1990s, Fisher and Weatherford believe that gold should perform better in the
future due to higher expected inflation. After appropriate transformation of the data,
they use an autoregressive first-order regression model to examine the
characteristics of gold returns, the results of which are shown in Exhibit 3: Gold
Price Regression Results.
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.09
R-Square 0.01
Observations 520.00
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
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A) No.
B) Yes, and it appears that the error terms are serially correlated.
C) Yes, and it appears that the error terms are not serially correlated.
Which of the following are the most likely problem in Weatherford's silver regression
and the most appropriate test for it?
Problem Test
A) Multicollinearity Breusch-Pagan
B) Multicollinearity Dickey-Fuller
To best model the silver price data using an autoregressive first-order regression
model, Weatherford should use:
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Using the data for the gold regression, what is the mean-reverting level and what is
the two-step-ahead forecast if the current value of the independent variable is –0.80?
Two-step-ahead
Mean-reverting level
forecast
A) 1.83 1.75
B) 1.83 1.81
C) 2.07 1.75
TOPIC: ECONOMICS
Barton Wilson, a junior analyst, is a new hire at a money center bank. He has been
assigned to help Juanita Chevas, CFA, in the currency trading department. Together,
Wilson and Chevas are working on the development of new trading software designed
to detect profitable opportunit ies in the foreign exchange market. Obviously, they are
interested in risk-free arbitrage opportunities. However, they have also been
instructed to investigate the possibility of longer-term currency exposures that are
not necessarily risk-free. To test the logic of their new software, Wilson gathers the
following market data:
Essentially, the bank wants to provide consulting services to its clients concerning
which currency exposures offer the most lucrative opportunities. In this process, the
bank will rely on deviations from international parity conditions as an indicator of
long-term currency movements. Several bank customers have engaged in a carry
trade with Bundovian Bunco (BU) as the investment currency and the USD as the
funding currency. The bank will provide risk management advice to customers as it
pertains to their FX carry trades.
One of the bank's major customers has significant business interests in Japan and in
the eurozone and has long exposure to both currencies. The customer has
traditionally hedged all currency risk. However, the customer's new risk manager has
decided to leave some currency exposure unhedged in an attempt to profit from long-
term currency exposure.
According to relative purchasing power parity, the expected JPY/EUR spot rate two
years from now is closest to:
A) 150.
B) 158.
C) 183.
Are the Japanese and eurozone inflation forecasts provided by the econometrics
department consistent with the inflation rates implied by the international Fisher
relation, given a U.S. inflation rate of 3%?
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According to the uncovered interest rate parity, in 12 months, the JPY/USD exchange
rate would most likely be closest to:
A) 116.
B) 118.
C) 124.
Based on the assumption that international parity conditions will hold in the long run,
should the JPY and euro currency exposures of the bank's major customer be left
unhedged?
Kevin Rathbun, CFA, is a financial analyst at a major brokerage firm. His supervisor,
Elizabeth Mao, CFA, asks him to analyze the financial position of Wayland, Inc.
(Wayland), a manufacturer of components for high quality optic transmission systems.
Mao also inquires about the impact of any unconsolidated investments.
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Assets
Liabilities
On the acquisition date, all of Optimax's assets and liabilities were stated on its
balance sheet at their fair values except for its property, plant, and equipment (PP&E),
which had a fair value of $1.2 million. The remaining useful life of the PP&E is 10 years
with no salvage value. Both firms use the straight-line depreciation method.
For the year ended 2018, Optimax reported net income of $250,000 and paid
dividends of $100,000.
During the first quarter of 2019, Optimax sold goods to Wayland and recognized
$15,000 of profit from the sale. At the end of the quarter, half of the goods purchased
from Optimax remained in Wayland's inventory.
Wayland currently uses the equity method to account for its investment in Optimax.
Rathbun also notes that Wayland owns shares in Vanry, Inc. (Vanry). Rathbun gathers
the data in Exhibit 2: Share Transaction Data, Vanry, Inc. from Wayland's financial
statements. The year-end portfolio value is the market value of all Vanry shares held
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on December 31. All security transactions occurred on July 1, and the transaction
price is the price that Wayland actually paid for the shares acquired. Vanry pays a
cash dividend of $1 per share at the end of each year. Wayland expects to sell its
investment in Vanry in the near term and accounts for it as fair value through profit or
loss security.
The amount of goodwill resulting from Wayland's acquisition of Optimax is closest to:
A) $20,000.
B) $70,000.
C) $90,000.
The amount that Wayland should report in its balance sheet at the end of 2018 as a
result of its investment in Optimax is closest to:
A) $345,500.
B) $352,000.
C) $380,500.
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Considering Wayland's intercompany sales transaction for the quarter ended March
31, 2019, the amount by which Wayland should reduce its equity income is closest to:
A) $2,625.
B) $7,500.
C) $15,000.
As a result of its investment in Vanry, the amount of profit that Wayland should
recognize in its income statement for the year ended 2018 is closest to:
A) $15,000.
B) $25,000.
C) $45,000.
Ota L'Abbe, a supervisor at an investment research firm, has asked one of the junior
analysts, Andreas Hally, to draft a research report dealing with various accounting
issues.
"There's an exciting company that we're starting to follow these days. It's called
Snowboards and Skateboards, Inc. They are a multinational company with
operations and a head office based in the resort town of Whistler in western
Canada. However, they also have a significant subsidiary located in the United
States."
"Look at the subsidiary and deal with some foreign currency issues, including
the specific differences between the temporal and current rate methods of
translation, as well as the ef fect on financial ratios."
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"The attached file contains the September 30, 2018, financial statements of the
U.S. subsidiary. Translate the financial statements into Canadian dollars in a
manner consistent with U.S. GAAP."
Inventory 600,000
Sales 1,352,000
Depreciation (140,000)
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Beginning inventory for fiscal 2018 had been purchased evenly throughout
fiscal 2017. The company uses the FIFO inventory value method.
Dividends of USD 25,000 were declared on June 30, 2018.
All of the remaining inventory at the end of fiscal 2018 was purchased evenly
throughout fiscal 2018.
All of the PP&E was purchased, and all of the common equity was issued at the
inception of the company on October 1, 2014. No new PP&E has been acquired,
and no additional common stock has been issued since then. However, they
plan to purchase new PP&E starting in fiscal 2019.
The beginning retained earnings balance for fiscal 2018 was CAD 1,550,000.
The accounts payable on the fiscal 2018 balance sheet were all incurred on June
30, 2018.
The U.S. subsidiary's operations are highly integrated with the main operations
in Canada.
The remeasured inventory for 2018 using the temporal method is CAD 810,000.
Costs of goods sold under the temporal method in 2018 is CAD 1,667,250.
Using the appropriate translation method, which of the following best describes the
effect of changing exchange rates on the parent's fiscal 2018 financial statements?
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As compared to the temporal method, the parent's fixed asset turnover for fiscal 2018
using the current rate method is:
A) higher.
B) lower.
C) the same.
Suppose the parent uses the current rate method to translate the subsidiary for fiscal
2018. Will return on assets and net profit margin in U.S. dollars before translation be
the same as, or different than, the translated Canadian dollar ratios?
A) Same Different
B) Different Different
C) Different Same
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Alertron's executive team agrees that the report is helpful for initiating discussion but
decides they need more information concerning the form of each potential
acquisition and the most appropriate method of payment. Alertron's management is
also concerned whether each potential target would view a takeover attempt as
friendly or hostile. Paul Mussara, Alertron's CEO, asks Ozer to prepare a second report
that specifically describes the transaction characteristics corresponding to each deal.
Ozer's second report is shown in Exhibit 2: Report 2—Merger Transaction
Characteristics.
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View offer as
Escarigen Stock purchase Cash offering
friendly
After intense discussions, Alertron decides that a takeover offer for Carideo would be
most beneficial due to the net present value of cost reduction synergies of $600
million that Ozer estimates would result from the merger. Mussara asks Ozer to
evaluate the deal based on a stock offer in which Alertron would exchange 0.75
shares of Alertron stock for each outstanding share of Carideo stock. Ozer compiles
the information shown in Exhibit 3: Merger Evaluation Inputs for her analysis.
Alertron Carideo
Ozer, and the rest of the executive management team at Alertron, is extremely
confident in the $600 million dollar estimate of cost reduction synergies that are likely
to result from the merger and feel that the estimate may actually be conservative.
However, when analysts at Carideo review the figures, they have a much different
opinion and are less certain that $600 million worth of synergies could be realized.
While Carideo believes the net present value of synergies from the deal would still be
positive, its estimates are much lower than Alertron's.
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A) Statutory Horizontal
B) Subsidiary Horizontal
C) Subsidiary Vertical
Using Ozer's estimates of the cost reduction synergies, the gain that would accrue to
Carideo's shareholders as a result of the merger with Alertron is closest to:
A) $109 million.
B) $456 million.
C) $514 million.
Based on each firm's forecasts of the estimated NPV of synergies from a merger
between Alertron and Carideo, what payment method is each firm most likely to
prefer in the deal?
Emily De Jong, CFA, works for Charles & Williams Associates, a medium-sized
investment firm operating in the northeastern United States. De Jong is responsible
for producing financial reports to use as tools to attract new clients. It is now early in
2019, and De Jong is reviewing information for O'Connor Textiles and finalizing a
report that will be used for an important presentation to a potential investor at the
end of the week.
2009 0.76
De Jong is also considering whether or not she should value O'C onnor using a free
cash flow model instead of the dividend discount model.
Charles Wang, De Jong's colleague, is of the opinion that O'Connor's growth rate will
be 11% but will decline linearly to a long-term growth rate of 4% over the next six
years. Wang also feels that the required rate of return for O'Connor should be 9.5%.
For this question only, assume that De Jong's estimate of the value of O'Connor stock
using a two-stage DDM is $75. Assuming the market has also applied a two-stage
DDM, and the market's consensus estimate of dividend growth and required return
are the same as De Jong's, the market's consensus estimate of the duration of the
high-growth period is most likely:
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Dividend discount
FCFE model
model
A) $43.64.
B) $48.75.
C) $52.35.
For this question only, assume that the market price of O'Connor stock is $48.00 and
the linearly declining high-growth period is five years. The required rate of return
implicit in the market price is closest to:
A) 8.86%.
B) 9.22%.
C) 10.81%.
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Ted Thompson, CIO for Aplius Insurance Company, is evaluating the credit risk
management models for the company's fixed income portfolio. Thompson meets with
Nambi Musa, who is the head of Aplius's credit risk analysis department. Musa
assures Thompson that his team has updated the credit risk analysis models over
recent years and that these updated models have performed well over the past 12
months. Thompson, however, is not pleased with the losses incurred on Aplius's
municipal bond holdings in the last quarter.
Musa mentions that while the credit risk analysis department continues to use credit
ratings, they are also evaluating other analytical tools including structural models. He
specifically mentions credit valuation adjustment and expected loss as other credit
risk measures currently being used. Musa makes the following two statements:
Musa further discusses the credit analysis metrics that are newly developed. As an
example, he illustrates the valuation conducted on 3-year, 5% Zeta Corp. $100 par,
senior unsecured bonds. Exhibit 1: Valuation of 3-Year, 5% Zeta Corp. Bond shows
the report.
Thompson then tells Musa that the credit analysis department should focus on
reduced-form models. Thompson states that, "reduced-form models perform better
than structural models as they tend to impose assumptions on the outputs of the
structural model. However, reduced-form models require a specification of the
company's balance sheet composition."
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A) correct.
incorrect because the process of adjusting ratings on issues by same issuer is not
B)
called notching.
incorrect because corporate credit ratings are based on senior unsecured debt of
C)
the issuer.
A) correct.
B) incorrect as the statement only considers credit risk.
incorrect as the statement should refer to expected loss and not to credit valuation
C)
adjustment.
Using information in Exhibit 1: Valuation of 3-Year, 5% Zeta Corp. Bond, the credit
valuation adjustment for the Zeta Corp. bond is closest to:
A) $1.34.
B) $1.86.
C) $2.72.
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A) correct.
B) incorrect regarding assumptions imposed.
C) incorrect regarding specification of balance sheet composition being required.
TOPIC: DERIVATIVES
Jonathan Adams, CFA, is doing some scenario analysis on swaps ands forward
contracts. The process involves pricing the contracts and then estimating their values
based on likely scenarios provided by the firm's forecasting and strategy departments.
The contracts with which Adams is most concerned are those on interest rates.
Adams determines the price of a 2×5 FRA from the spot yield curve using the following
calculation:
Thirty months ago, Adams entered into a $1 million notional, 3-year, semiannual
settlement, 3% fixed-rate payer swap.
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How many of the following terms are correct in the calculation of the FRA price:
0.0352, 0.0332, 60/360, 90/360?
A) Two.
B) Three.
C) Four.
After 30 days, Adams wants to value a $10 million short position in the 2×5 FRA. The
90-day forward rate in 30 days is now 4.14%, and the original price of the FRA was
4.30%. 120-day LIBOR has changed to 3.92%. The current value of the $10 million FRA
to the short position under this scenario is closest to:
A) $15,794.
B) $3,948.
C) –$15,794.
Immediately after the fifth settlement, the value of the swap to Adams is closest to:
A) $5,487.
B) $5,600.
C) $11,076.
Suppose that Adams entered into the FRA as a short party and now wants to hedge
that exposure. The most appropriate way to achieve that hedge would be to take on
exposure to:
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C) a receiver swap.
Julie Mariluz is a real estate analyst with Young Family Trust (YFT), a family investment
office. Aside from investment in equities and bonds, YFT makes direct investment in
diverse real estate properties. Mariluz has been asked to evaluate three potential
investment properties shown in Exhibit 1: Property Description
Which property valuations are most likely to be heavily influenced by their unique
characteristics?
Which approach would an appraiser most likely use for valuing Property #2?
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A) Cost approach.
B) Income approach.
C) Sales comparison approach.
One of the partners at YFT asks Mariluz how she would go about estimating the value
of an owner-occupied, 45-year-old single family home. The most appropriate
response that Mariluz could provide is:
YFT is considering the use of an index as a benchmark for measuring the performance
of the firm's private real estate investments. Compared to a transaction-based real
estate index, an appraisal-based real estate index is most likely to have higher:
A) lag.
B) volatility.
C) correlation with other asset classes.
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Financial. Zonding does not like to hire anyone who does not adhere to the Code and
Standards' professional conduct requirements.
(ii) As an intern at Lammar Corp., Cooken was fired after revealing to the
FBI that one of the principals was embezzling from the firm's clients.
(iv) On her resume, Cooken writes, "Recently passed Level II of the CFA
exam, a test that measures candidates' knowledge of finance and
investing."
During the interview, Zonding asks Cooken several questions on ethics-related issues,
including questions about the role of a fiduciary and Standard III(E) Preservation of
Confidentiality. He asks her about her internship at Kale Investments, specifically
about the working hours. Cooken replies that the internship turned out to require
more time than she originally planned, up to 65 hours per week.
Zonding subsequently hires Cooken and functions as her supervisor. On her third day
at the money management boutique firm, portfolio manager Steven Clarrison hands
her a report on Mocline Tobacco and tells her to revise the report to reflect a buy
rating. Cooken is uncomfortable about revising the report.
Zonding prepared a research report with a buy rating on Orlando Stores, a discount
clothing chain. Khasko's investment banking department has completed transactions
for Orlando in the past 12 months and currently is working with Orlando to evaluate a
secondary offering; Khasko has a policy in place that separates the activities of
investment banking and research departments.
In the report, Zonding disclosed that Khasko has an investment banking relationship
with Orlando and that his wife holds Orlando shares. However, he forgot to comment
on the risk profile and suitability of investing in Orlando shares.
Zonding just entered into a brokerage agreement with Zeta Services. According to that
agreement, in exchange for client referrals from Zeta, Khasko would give Zeta its
brokerage business. Khasko advised its clients about the nature and extent of this
relationship in writing.
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In the context of the Code and Standards, which of the items from the background
check would most likely indicate that Zonding should not have hired Cooken?
A) Item i.
B) Item ii.
C) Item iii.
Which of the following statements provides the least appropriate justification for
Cooken's caution about revising the report on Mocline Tobacco?
Was Zonding in compliance with CFA Institute Standards of Professional Conduct with
regard to the Orlando Stores research report?
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Did Zonding and Khasko follow the recommended procedures of the CFA Institute
Standards of Professional Conduct with respect to the brokerage arrangement with
Zeta?
Brandon Ratlieff, CFA, is a partner at Global Asset Management (GAM). CFA program
candidate Sarah Gunderson just completed her first year at GAM. Ratlieff is going over
Gunderson's annual evaluation completed by her supervisor Peter Jackson, CFA.
To supplement the meager income from her entry-level stock-analysis job, Gunderson
took a part-time position working three hours each Friday and Saturday night tending
bar at a sports bar and grill downtown. Gunderson did not inform her supervisor or
HR about the job.
During her first week, Gunderson has lunch with her former classmates, including
Taira Basch, CFA, who works for the compliance officer at a large investment bank in
town.
Basch arrives late, explaining, "What a day, it's only noon and already I have worked
on the following requests:
One of GAM's clients is Bluestar Inc. Several months ago, Ratlieff filed several
documents with regulators concerning Bluestar's IPO. A Bluestar official later
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provided Ratlieff information that suggested that the financial statements GAM filed
with the regulator overstate the issuer's earnings.
Ratlieff seeks the advice of GAM's general counsel, who states that because Ratlieff
was not aware of the irregularity at the time of the filing, it would be difficult for the
regulator to prove that GAM has been involved in any wrongdoing.
GAM provides research coverage for ASE, a European retailer. Gunderson's mother
owns 30,000 ASE shares. As part of her estate planning, Gunderson's mother informs
Gunderson that she has created a trust in Gunderson's name, into which she has
placed 2,000 shares of ASE. The trust is structured so that Gunderson will not receive
control of the assets for three years. Gunderson is due to update the research
coverage of ASE within the next two weeks.
By not telling her employer about the bartending position, Gunderson has most likely
violated:
A) no Standards.
B) Standard IV(B) Additional Compensation Arrangements.
Standard IV(A) Loyalty (to employer) and Standard IV(B) Additional Compensation
C)
Arrangements.
Which of the requests, if fulfilled, is most likely to place Basch in violation of Standard
III(E) Preservation of Confidentiality?
A) Request 1.
B) Request 2.
C) Request 3.
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With respect to the information about Bluestar, Ratlieff's most appropriate course of
action would be to:
advise her supervisor that she is not able to issue research recommendations on
A)
ASE.
disclose her holdings in the report, though she need not notify her supervisor
B)
because the shares are held in trust and are not within her direct control.
disclose the situation to her supervisor and, if then asked to prepare a report, also
C)
disclose the situation in the report.
Exhibit 1: Selected Pension Plan Information for FY 20X9 shows selected financial
data pertaining to Samilski's employee pension plan.
$ Millions
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Interest cost 82
During fiscal year 20X9, a change in actuarial assumptions regarding employee life
expectancy resulted in an actuarial loss of $128 million. Average employee service life
is estimated to be 20 years. The discount rate and expected return on plan assets are
8% and 10% respectively. Carson believes that rate of compensation increase will be
5% as opposed to the 4% assumed by the plan.
A) $76 million.
B) $132 million.
C) $188 million.
A) $1,024 million.
B) $1,128 million.
C) $1,412 million.
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A) $62 million.
B) $76 million.
C) $150 million.
The amount of periodic pension cost reported in P&L if Samilski reported under IFRS
would be closest to:
A) $144 million.
B) $152 million.
C) $166 million.
The new machine will be depreciated using a 3-year MACRS schedule (note: the 3-year
MACRS schedule is 33.0% in the first year, 45% in the second year, 15% in the third
year, and 7% in the fourth year). At the end of the life of the new equipment (i.e., in
three years), Malfoy expects that it can be sold for $10,000. The firm has a marginal
tax rate of 40%, and the cost of capital on this project is 20%. In calculation of tax
liabilities, Malfoy assumes that the firm is profitable, so any losses on this project can
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be offset against profits elsewhere in the firm. Malfoy calculates a project NPV of –
$62,574.
The after-tax operating cash flow for the first year of operations with the new
equipment (excluding the initial outlay) is closest to:
A) $10,800.
B) $132,000.
C) $142,800.
The impact of taxes on the operating cash flow in Year 2 is closest to:
A) a decrease of $7,200.
B) an increase of $7,200.
C) an increase of $12,000.
The combined after-tax operating cash flow and terminal year after-tax non-operating
cash flow in Year 3 is closest to:
A) $131,200.
B) $151,200.
C) $152,200.
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Suppose for this question only that Malfoy has neglected to account for an increase in
inventory that will be required at the beginning of the project. The most likely effect of
this omission on estimated project NPV:
A) is to overestimate NPV.
B) is no impact on NPV.
depends on whether the inventory is assumed to drop to its previous level at the
C)
end of the project or whether the increase in inventory is permanent.
Lorenz Kummert is a junior equity analyst who is following Schubert, Inc. (Schubert), a
small publicly traded company in the United States. His supervisor, Markus Alter, CFA,
has advised him to use the residual income model to analyze Schubert.
Kummert has determined Schubert's cost of equity, cost of debt, and weighted
average cost of capital (WACC) to be 12.8%, 8.4%, and 11.9%, respectively. Book value
of long-term debt and equity was $6,200,000 and $3,281,000 respectively on January
1, 2018. The stock price on December 31, 2018, is $36 per share and there are
130,000 shares outstanding. The relevant tax rate is 30%, and return on equity (ROE)
is expected to be 14%.
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Exhibit 2: Schubert, Inc., Income Statement for the Year Ended December 31,
2018
Sales $9,423,000
Depreciation 1,745,000
Based on his analysis of several years of financial statements, Kummert notes that
2018 was an exceptionally profitable year for Schubert, and that its dividend payouts
are usually low because the funds are mainly reinvested in the firm to promote
growth. Furthermore, there are very few nonrecurring items on the income
statement. Upon review of Kummert's preliminary report, Alter concurs with his
analysis of the financial statements but reminds him that Schubert's long-term debt is
currently trading at 95% of its book value. He also cautions Kummert that violations of
the clean surplus relation can bias the results of the residual income model.
The consensus annual EPS estimate for 2019 is $4.50, and the dividend payout ratio
for 2019 is estimated at 5%.
Which of the following amounts is the most appropriate forecast of Schubert's book
value per share and residual income, respectively, for 2019?
A) $36.43 $0.38
B) $38.00 $2.32
C) $36.43 $2.32
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Which of the following amounts are closest to Schubert's economic value added (EVA)
for fiscal year 2018 and market value added (MVA) as of fiscal year-end 2018,
respectively?
EVA MVA
A) $179,361 $188,450
B) $23,455 $369,500
C) ($70,900) $369,500
A) 0.34%.
B) 2.75%.
C) 12.63%.
Regarding Alter's caution about violations of the clean surplus relationship, examples
of items that can violate this relationship are most likely to include:
A) foreign currency gains and losses under the current rate method.
B) changes in the market value of debt and equity held as trading securities.
C) changes in net working capital.
Matthew Emery, CFA, is responsible for analyzing companies in the retail industry. He
is currently reviewing the status of Ferguson Department Stores, Inc. (FDS). FDS has
recently gone through extensive restructuring in the wake of a slowdown in the
economy that has made retailing particularly challenging. As part of his analysis,
Emery has gathered information from a number of sources.
FDS went public in 1979 following a major acquisition, and the Ferguson name quickly
became one of the most recognized in retailing. Ferguson had been successful
through most of its first 30 years in business and has prided itself on being the one-
stop shopping destination for consumers living on the West Coast of the United
States. Recently, FDS began to experience both top and bottom line difficulties due to
increased competition from specialty retailers who could operate more efficiently and
offer a wider range of products in a focused retailing sector. When the company's
main bank reduced FDS's line of credit, a serious working capital crisis ensued, and
the company was forced to issue additional equity in an effort to overcome the
problem.
FDS has a cost of capital of 10% and a required rate of return on equity of 12%.
Dividends are growing at a rate of 8%, but the growth rate is expected to decline
linearly over the next six years to a long-term growth rate of 4%. The company
recently paid an annual dividend of $1.
At the end of 2018, FDS announced that it would be expanding its retail operations,
moving to a warehouse concept, and opening new stores around the country. FDS
also announced it would close some existing stores, write-down assets, and take a
large restructuring charge. Upon reviewing the prospects of the firm, Emery issued an
earnings-per-share forecast for 2019 of $0.90. He set a 12-month share price target of
$22.50. Immediately following the expansion announcement, the share price of FDS
jumped from $14 to $18.
2018 2017
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(21.8) 101.0
The value of one share of FDS using the H-model is closest to:
A) $14.50.
B) $16.50.
C) $19.33.
Q estion #58 of 88
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Question #58 of 88 Question ID: 1419026
Assuming that the cost of equity for FDS does not change, the present value of growth
opportunities in the share price following the announcement that the company would
be expanding its retail operations, using Emery's 2019 earnings forecast, is closest to:
A) $9.00.
B) $10.50.
C) $12.50.
Assuming a tax rate of 34%, the underlying earnings per share (EPS) for FDS in 2018 is
closest to:
A) $0.19.
B) $0.73.
C) $1.36.
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Sally Soikins, CFA, Chief Investment Officer at Greenvalley is reviewing the bank's
policies about credit risk management with Esha Leone, a senior analyst managing the
bank's fixed income portfolio.
Two years ago, when benchmark rates were flat at 4%, Greenvalley bank purchased
$3 million par of 7-year, 5% annual-pay coupon Newspace Inc. bonds. At the time of
the purchase, Leone had calculated the CVA on the bond as $7.71 per $100 par. A
5.76-year duration, 5% standardized coupon CDS on those bonds was available at that
time but was not purchased by the bank. Since the investment, the credit spread on
the bonds has widened by 80bps and the duration of the CDS has changed to 4.31
years.
Soikins observes that credit investment grade credit curves seem to be steepening.
Leone makes the following two statements about credit curves:
Statement 1: Lower rated sectors tend to have flatter credit curves due to
their higher sensitivity to the business cycle and greater
uncertainty.
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A) a gain of $103,440.
B) a loss of $344,800.
C) a gain of $413,760.
A) accurate.
B) inaccurate regarding the shape of the credit curve for the lower rated sector.
C) inaccurate regarding sensitivity to the business cycle.
A) accurate.
B) inaccurate about higher liquidity of the new issue.
C) inaccurate about inversion of the curve.
Nayna Shah, CFA, leads the fixed income department at Rodney Partners (RP). Shah
has recently hired Susan Reynolds, a new economics graduate. During a previous
meeting with Reynolds, Shah had mentioned purchasing a $12 million CDS on Welby,
Inc., bonds that is currently part of the RP's portfolio. While Welby has not declared
bankruptcy, it recently missed a coupon payment. Shah asks Reynolds to provide
details of RP's position and planned course of action. Exhibit 1: Welby Inc. provides
some of the information that Reynolds has collected.
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RP's position: $12 million par, 6% senior unsecured maturing in five years.
Shah notes that RP has also purchased $10 million notional, index CDS position in
CDX-HY and that Welby is one of the 125 constituents in that index.
While discussing credit risk analysis, Reynolds makes the following two statements:
Was there a credit event for Welby, and if so what settlement method is Rodney
Partners most likely to prefer?
Assuming a default for Welby, the notional for RP's CDX-HY index CDS would be
adjusted to an amount closest to:
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A) $9.92 million.
B) $9.99 million.
C) $10.00 million.
A) correct.
incorrect as structural models can incorporate the risk of off-balance sheet debt as
B)
long as the assets of the company trade.
C) incorrect because off-balance sheet debt is a zero-coupon liability.
A) correct.
incorrect as credit analysis of ABS focuses on the quality of the collateral pool and
B)
the structure of the ABS and not on servicer quality.
incorrect as credit analysis of ABS focuses on the quality of the collateral pool, the
C)
structure of the ABS, and servicer quality, and not on servicer credit quality.
TOPIC: DERIVATIVES
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He must first determine the swap rate. Black notes the term structure shown in
Exhibit 1: Term Structure of LIBOR (USD and CHF) on January 1:
CHF USD
Term (Days)
LIBOR Discount Factor LIBOR Discount Factor
Black is also evaluating a USD fixed for CHF fixed, 3-year, semiannual currency swap
on a notional of USD 10 million. The current exchange rate is CHF/USD 0.97.
On July 1, immediately after the first settlement, Black observes that the 18-month
semiannual swap fixed rate is 4.62%. The term structure of LIBOR is given in Exhibit
2: USD LIBOR Term Structure on July 1.
60 3.31 0.9945
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The annualized fixed rate for the $30 million swap on January 1 is closest to:
A) 3.73%.
B) 3.80%.
C) 3.91%.
For this question only, assume the annualized fixed rate on the $30 million swap is
3.80%. The amount of the first net payment due on this swap is closest to:
A) $82,500.
B) $165,000.
C) $285,000.
For this question only, assume that the original 2-year $30 million notional swap was
entered into at a fixed rate of 4.0%. Based on the information in the case and Exhibit
2: USD LIBOR Term Structure on July 1, the value of the swap on July 1 to Black is
closest to:
A) $267,390.
B) $270,000.
C) $346,572.
The CHF fixed payment to be made periodically by the USD receiver is closest to:
A) CHF 26,200.
B) CHF 52,381.
C) CHF 54,000.
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Gould has expressed an interest in acquiring the Five Falls Apartments, a 99 unit
complex housed on 213 acres of land outside Stamford in Fairfield County,
Connecticut. This property was constructed in 1995 at a cost of $9 million. It is one of
the most desirable rental buildings in the area.
The Gould Organization has typically focused on residential real estate but is now
considering investing in other kinds of properties as well.
Recently, Gould's human resources team interviewed Samatha Watkins, a recent MBA
graduate and CFA Level II candidate, for an open analyst position with the firm. To test
her knowledge of real estate finance, Gould's HR staff asks Watkins questions about
how she would value various types of real estate property.
Gould expects to finance his firm's acquisition of the Five Falls apartments at its
appraised value using a loan. Suppose that Primeco Bank is willing to make the Gould
Organization an interest-only loan at a 5% interest rate as long as the DSCR is at least
2.0 and loan to value ratio is not more than 85%. The maximum amount of loan that
Gould can obtain is closest to:
A) $32 million.
B) $34 million.
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C) $36 million.
Suppose that the Gould Organization purchases Five Falls at its appraised value,
partially financed using an interest-only mortgage in the amount of $34 million at 5%
interest. The equity dividend rate (i.e., the cash-on-cash return) for the first year
would be closest to:
A) 4%.
B) 15%.
C) 25%.
Suppose that rather than taking out a loan, the Gould Organization purchases the
property today for its appraised value on an all-cash basis. Then, after five years, the
property is sold by Gould for $48 million. The IRR for this unleveraged (all-cash)
investment in the property would be closest to:
A) 11%
B) 16%.
C) 21%.
Imagine that rather than purchasing Five Falls for cash, Gould Organization takes out
an interest-only $32 million loan requiring debt service of $1.6 million. Suppose that
the property is sold by Gould after five years for $48 million. Ignoring taxes, the IRR of
the Gould Organization's investment is closest to:
A) −11%.
B) 21%.
C) 31%.
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Neil Cernan set up his own investment management firm in 2005. Cernan Investment
Management LLC (CIM) is headquartered in Kansas City, MO, with eight offices across
the U.S. Midwest and East coast. While initial growth of the firm was relatively slow,
over the last six quarters assets under management have increased at their fastest
rate since inception.
Cernan now feels that the time is right to expand overseas to help sustain the pace of
the firm's growth. CIM's board has narrowed the expansion down to two possible
countries: Pangia and Isopia.
Cernan has historically tried to avoid investing in any country with low real GDP
growth or low interest rates, or inflation rates that are too high or volatile. He intends
to follow the same rules for CIM. Cernan's proposed screening process is shown in
Exhibit 1: Screening Criteria.
1. Forecast real GDP growth for the coming year is less than 1.5%
2. The real risk-free rate is less than 1.0%
3. Forecast inflation is greater than 1.5%
Cernan has gathered some information on Pangia because he is concerned that that
economy may not pass the screening process. The data gathered is shown in Exhibit
2: Pangia Data and Next Period Forecast.
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In addition to assessing macroeconomic data in each candidate country, CIM has also
researched potential investment managers. In Isopia, CIM staff have identified three
potential investment managers with the required skill set and experience. Cernan
presents this information to the board, including a definition of the information ratio,
plus key performance data for two of the managers as shown in Exhibit 4:
Information Ratio Definition and Isopian Candidate Data.
Information
The ex post information ratio is the actual correlation between active
Ratio
returns and expected active returns and may be positive or negative.
Defined:
Candidate Data
Manager A Manager B
All three candidates work with constrained portfolios due to local laws and
regulations. However, Cernan intends to assess the managers by calculating their
information ratio had the portfolios been unconstrained. Cernan's screen calls for a
minimum unconstrained information ratio of 0.25.
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Using the data in Exhibit 2: Pangia Data and Next Period Forecast, and the
screening process outlined in Exhibit 1: Screening Criteria, Pangia is most likely to:
A) fail only the screening criterion related to the real GDP growth rate.
B) fail only the screening criterion related to the real risk-free rate.
C) pass both the real GDP growth and real risk-free rates criteria.
A) correct.
B) incorrect because the information ratio cannot be negative.
C) incorrect because it defines the information coefficient instead.
A) Only Manager A.
B) Only Manager B.
C) Neither Manager A nor Manager B.
Which of Cernan's reasons for not relying on Manager X's information ratio are based
on actual limitations of the fundamental law?
A) Reason 1 only.
B) Reason 2 only.
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Steve Mason, CFA, is an analyst with Alpha Developers. Mason is advising a client
regarding trading algorithms. Mason revealed that he has some concerns over the
trading methods carried out by market participants. His analysis revealed several
instances of high frequency trading that he was uncomfortable with because they may
invite regulatory scrutiny. While showing a screenshot of orders, Mason makes the
following statement:
Statement 1: The pattern of trading by Trader [B] over the period 8th June
to 12th June suggests strongly that Trader [B] may be wash
trading.
While discussing backtesting, Mason states, "I am always skeptical when someone
shows me a strategy that has performed well based on past data. Did they find this
strategy by sifting through many different models and selecting the one based on how
good it looked statistically?"
Another client is concerned with longer term trends in Ruritania, a country where the
client has significant investments. A recent paper on consumption trends and that
country's position in the business cycle left the client with doubts about both
Ruritanian interest rates and bond performance.
The relevant extract from the paper is shown in Exhibit 1: Longer Term
Macroeconomic Forecasts for Ruritania – Extract
"Two distinct trends have emerged in the Ruritanian economy over the last
10 quarters. First, the level of wealth per capita has increased, and this
increase is only expected to accelerate over the next four years. Compared
to today, the average family can expect to increase their wealth at an
average of 0.5% per year over this period.
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Conclusion 1: The expected trend in personal wealth will decrease the utility
of future consumption relative to consumption today, reduce
the inter-temporal rate of substitution, and reduce the real
interest rate.
placing a legitimate trade on one side of the market and several illegitimate orders
A)
at different prices on the other side.
B) executing simultaneous buy and sell orders on the same financial instrument.
entering large quantities of fictitious orders into the market and instantaneously
C)
canceling them.
A) data snooping.
B) statistical anomalies.
C) survivorship bias.
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A) incorrect, as both growth and volatility would increase real interest rates.
B) incorrect, as both growth and volatility would decrease real interest rates.
C) correct.
Andrea Vrbenic, CFA, was recently promoted to supervisory analyst at Banke Gjigante,
a large brokerage firm that has investment banking and asset management
departments. Vrbenic will report to Tom Sheffield, a senior manager and director at
the firm.
Currently, Vrbenic manages the investment account of Bill Stallwell, a single retiree
who lives off his portfolio and is relatively risk averse. Stallwell's account has been
with the firm for over fifteen years. Last year, Vrbenic added a stock with a beta of 1.5
to Stallwell's portfolio. Since then, Vrbenic has also sold call options on these shares
as part of a covered call strategy for Stallwell's portfolio.
Sheffield passes on to Vrbenic a request from Amica Biotech, one of the firm's clients,
to write a research report on Amica. The research will be paid for by Amica, with a flat
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Mike Callingly, CFA, a senior portfolio manager at Banke Gjigante, routinely distributes
performance reports on composite of portfolios managed by him. He claims that the
performance reports are GIPS compliant, except that the returns are equally-weighted
and not asset-weighted.
As part of communication with her clients, Vrbenic sends out a quarterly performance
report comparing the performance of clients' portfolios to the performance of a
broad-based market index. While doing some analysis, Vrbenic notes that her
performance would look more attractive if she used a target-date index fund for
comparison purposes. She also notes that the risk profile of her client portfolios is
more closely tracked by target-date funds than by the broad-based market index.
Starting with the first quarter of the current year, Vrbenic updates her client
communications, replacing the broad-based market index with target-date funds for
comparison purposes.
A) violated the Standards, both by buying the high-beta stock and by selling the calls.
violated the Standards by selling the options but not by purchasing the high-beta
B)
stock.
not violated the Standards because overall portfolio risk needs to be evaluated for
C)
the purpose of judging suitability.
With regards to the research report on Amica, Vrbenic will most likely:
not be in violation of the Standards as long as the fact that the research is issuer-
A)
funded is disclosed.
not be in violation of the Standards as long as both the source of the funding and
B)
the nature of the compensation is disclosed.
be in violation of the Standards even if both the funding source and the nature of
C)
the compensation are disclosed.
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A) not in violation of the Standards because the change has a reasonable basis.
in violation of Standard III(D) because changes to an established performance
B)
benchmark are prohibited.
not in violation of the Standards if she discloses the change in performance
C)
presentation to her clients.
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